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Sun R, Xu X, Dong Y, Li J, Guan W, Huang Y, Li S, Wang Y, Li J. Global and regional trends in prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth: age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2019 and projections until 2049. J Dent 2024:105122. [PMID: 38871071 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdent.2024.105122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2024] [Revised: 06/06/2024] [Accepted: 06/08/2024] [Indexed: 06/15/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aims to update the relevant epidemiological information of untreated caries in permanent teeth. METHODS Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. We described temporal trends in age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of untreated caries in permanent teeth by gender and region from 1990 to 2019. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was utilized to analyze age, period and cohort effects on prevalence, and we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to make projections of prevalence between 2020 and 2049. RESULTS The global ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth presented a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019 (26593.58/105 vs. 25625.53/105), with females exceeding males annually. Negative correlation was observed between ASPR and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. APC analyses showed that net drift was -0.16% globally and generally below 0 across all SDI regions. The overall global peak in prevalence occurred in the 20-24 years group (36319.99/105), and there was a decrease trend in the overall global period rate ratio (RR). Compared to younger birth cohorts, prior birth cohorts had higher prevalence risks globally and across all SDI regions. Significant upward trends was predicted in the global ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth for both genders from 2020 to 2049. CONCLUSIONS Age-period-cohort effects exerted a significant impact on the prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth during the study period. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE The ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth may increase in the next 30 years by projections. And the disease burden of untreated caries in permanent teeth may be affected by population ageing. It is essential to implement targeted prevention and control policies to disadvantaged groups and attempt to reduce caries inequalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rongyin Sun
- Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang 261031, Shandong Province, PR China; School of Stomatology, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Xin Xu
- Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang 261031, Shandong Province, PR China; School of Stomatology, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Yanli Dong
- Weizi Street Health Center of Changyi, Weifang, 261300, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Jin Li
- Weifang People's Hospital, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261000, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Weizhen Guan
- School of Stomatology, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Yushan Huang
- School of Stomatology, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Shunhang Li
- School of Stomatology, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Yanxia Wang
- Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang 261031, Shandong Province, PR China.
| | - Jing Li
- School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China.
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Ouyang G, Pan G, Li Q, Li S, Liu T, Yi X, Liu Z. Global burden of acute hepatitis E between 1990 and 2019 and projections until 2030. Liver Int 2024; 44:1329-1342. [PMID: 38426633 DOI: 10.1111/liv.15883] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Revised: 01/17/2024] [Accepted: 02/16/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Acute hepatitis E (AHE) is still a public health issue worldwide. Here, we report the global burden of AHE in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI), and predict the future trends to 2030. METHODS Data on AHE were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and joinpoint analysis were used to determine the burden trend. RESULTS In 2019, there were 19.47 million (95% UI, 16.04 to 23.37 million) incident cases of AHE globally, with a 19% increase since 1990. Age-standardized rate (ASR) of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalent and incident cases declined from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the ASR of incidence, prevalence and DALYs due to HEV infection were highest in the same regions of South Asia for both sexes. Southern Sub-Saharan Africa presented the highest increases in the ASR for incidence of HEV infection in both males (AAPC = .25) and females (AAPC = .24) from 1990 to 2019. Incident cases are higher in males than females before 55-59 years old. The SDI values were negatively correlated with the age-standardized DALYs. Between 2019 and 2030, the ASR for incidence and prevalence of HEV for both sexes showed an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS Although the overall ASR of AHE decreased, the burden of AHE remains an underappreciated problem for society. The findings may provide useful information for policymakers to develop appropriate strategies aimed at reducing the burden of AHE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guoqing Ouyang
- Department of General Surgery, Liuzhou People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
- Liuzhou Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases Precision Diagnosis Research Center of Engineering Technology, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
- Division of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, Guangxi, China
| | - Guangdong Pan
- Department of General Surgery, Liuzhou People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
- Liuzhou Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases Precision Diagnosis Research Center of Engineering Technology, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
| | - Qiuyun Li
- Department of General Surgery, Liuzhou People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
- Liuzhou Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases Precision Diagnosis Research Center of Engineering Technology, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
| | - Shuang Li
- Department of General Surgery, Liuzhou People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
- Liuzhou Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases Precision Diagnosis Research Center of Engineering Technology, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
| | - Tao Liu
- Department General Surgery, Luzhai People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
| | - Xiaolei Yi
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Changsha Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Zhipeng Liu
- Department of General Surgery, Liuzhou People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
- Division of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, Guangxi, China
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Jin Y, Guo C, Abbasian M, Abbasifard M, Abbott JH, Abdullahi A, Abedi A, Abidi H, Abolhassani H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Addo IY, Adegboye OA, Adepoju AV, Adikusuma W, Adnani QES, Aghamiri S, Ahmad D, Ahmed A, Aithala JP, Akhlaghi S, Akkala S, Alalwan TA, Albashtawy M, Alemi H, Alhalaiqa FAN, Ali EA, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Al-Worafi YM, Alzahrani H, Alzoubi KH, Amiri S, Amu H, Amzat J, Anderson DB, Anil A, Antony B, Arabloo J, Areda D, Artaman A, Artamonov AA, Aryal KK, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf T, Athari SS, Atinafu BT, Atout MMW, Azadnajafabad S, Azhdari Tehrani H, Azzam AY, Badawi A, Baghcheghi N, Bai R, Baigi V, Banach M, Banakar M, Banik B, Bardhan M, Bärnighausen TW, Barqawi HJ, Barrow A, Bashiri A, Batra K, Bayani M, Bayileyegn NS, Begde A, Beyene KA, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti R, Bijani A, Bitra VR, Brazo-Sayavera J, Buchbinder R, Burkart K, Bustanji Y, Butt MH, Cámera LA, Carvalho F, Chattu VK, Chaurasia A, Chen G, Chen H, Chen L, Christensen SWM, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Comachio J, Cruz-Martins N, Cuschieri S, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dai X, Dai Z, Das S, Dashti M, Delgado-Enciso I, Demisse B, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Desye B, Dewan SMR, Dhingra S, Diress M, Do TC, Do THP, Doan KDK, Dutta S, Dziedzic AM, Edinur HA, Ekholuenetale M, Elhadi M, Eskandarieh S, Esposito F, Fagbamigbe AF, Farokh P, Fatehizadeh A, Feizkhah A, Fekadu G, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Foroutan B, Foroutan Koudehi M, Franklin RC, Fukumoto T, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Gau SY, Gautam RK, Gebre AK, Gebregergis MW, Ghaderi Yazdi B, Gholami A, Gill TK, Goleij P, Gomes-Neto M, Goyal A, Graham SM, Guan B, Gupta B, Gupta IR, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Habibzadeh F, Hailu WB, Hajibeygi R, Halwani R, Haro JM, Hartvigsen J, Hasaballah AI, Haubold J, Hebert JJ, Hegazy MI, Heidari G, Heidari M, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hoveidaei AH, Hsu CJ, Huda MN, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ikiroma AI, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Iranmehr A, Islam SMS, Ismail NE, Iso H, Iwagami M, Iyasu AN, Jacob L, Jafarzadeh A, Jahankhani K, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Janakiraman B, Jayarajah U, Jayaram S, Jeganathan J, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Kabito GG, Kamal VK, Kandel H, Kantar RS, Karami J, Karaye IM, Karimi Behnagh A, Kaur N, Kazemi F, Kedir S, Khadembashiri MM, Khadembashiri MA, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khan MJ, Khan MAB, Khan Suheb MZ, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khateri S, Khayat Kashani HR, Khonji MS, Khubchandani J, Kian S, Kisa A, Kitila AT, Kolahi AA, Koohestani HR, Korzh O, Kostev K, Kotnis AL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuddus M, Kumar N, Kurniasari MD, Ladan MA, Lahariya C, Laksono T, Lallukka T, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lawal BK, Le TTT, Le TDT, Lee M, Lee WC, Lee YH, Lerango TL, Lim D, Lim SS, Lucchetti G, Ma ZF, Maghazachi AA, Maghbouli N, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra A, Malik AA, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Manu E, Mathangasinghe Y, Mazzotti A, McPhail SM, Mengist B, Mesregah MK, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Minh LHN, Mirahmadi Eraghi M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mohamadian H, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi S, Mohammed M, Mojiri-Forushani H, Mokdad AH, Momenzadeh K, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Montazeri F, Moradi Y, Morrison SD, Mostafavi E, Mousavi P, Mousavi SE, Mulita A, Murillo-Zamora E, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Naik GR, Naimzada MD, Nakhostin Ansari N, Narasimha Swamy S, Nargus S, Nascimento PR, Naseri A, Natto ZS, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nazri-Panjaki A, Negaresh M, Negash H, Nejadghaderi SA, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen HQ, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Ofakunrin AO, Okati-Aliabad H, Okonji OC, Olatubi MI, Ommati MM, Ordak M, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pan F, Pantazopoulos I, Park S, Patel J, Patil S, Pawar S, Pedersini P, Peprah P, Perna S, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Pham HT, Pigeolet M, Prates EJS, Rahim F, Rahimi Z, Rahimi-Dehgolan S, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahmati M, Ramasamy SK, Ramasubramani P, Rapaka D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashidi MM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rawaf S, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei Z, Riad A, Roever L, Roshanzamir S, Roy P, de Andrade Ruela G, Saad AM, Saddik B, Sadeghian F, Saeed U, Safary A, Saghazadeh A, Sagoe D, Sharif-Askari FS, Sharif-Askari NS, Sahebkar A, Sakshaug JW, Salami AA, Saleh MA, Salehi S, Samadzadeh S, Samodra YL, Samuel VP, Santos DB, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saqib MAN, Saravanan A, Sawyer S, Schaarschmidt BM, Senapati S, Sethi Y, Seylani A, Shafaat A, Shafie M, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahrokhi S, Shaikh MA, Shamim MA, Shamshirgaran MA, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharifi A, Sharma R, Sharma S, Shashamo BB, Shi L, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shivarov V, Siddig EE, Sinaei E, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh P, Singh S, Singla S, Siraj MS, Skryabina AA, Solanki R, Solomon Y, Starodubova AV, Swain CK, Talic S, Tat NY, Temsah MH, Terefa DR, Tesler R, Thapar R, Tharwat S, Thayakaran R, Ticoalu JHV, Tovani-Palone MR, Tusa BS, Ty SS, Udoakang AJ, Vahabi SM, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Villafañe JH, Vlassov V, Vo AT, Vu LG, Wang YP, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe ND, Winkler AS, Wu AM, Yadollahpour A, Yahya G, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Zakham F, Zangiabadian M, Zarrintan A, Zhong C, Zhou H, Zhu Z, Zielińska M, Zikarg YT, Zitoun OA, Zoladl M, Tam LS, Wu D. Global pattern, trend, and cross-country inequality of early musculoskeletal disorders from 1990 to 2019, with projection from 2020 to 2050. MED 2024:S2666-6340(24)00179-X. [PMID: 38834074 DOI: 10.1016/j.medj.2024.04.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2023] [Revised: 03/18/2024] [Accepted: 04/24/2024] [Indexed: 06/06/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study aims to estimate the burden, trends, forecasts, and disparities of early musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders among individuals ages 15 to 39 years. METHODS The global prevalence, years lived with disabilities (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), projection, and inequality were estimated for early MSK diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), osteoarthritis (OA), low back pain (LBP), neck pain (NP), gout, and other MSK diseases (OMSKDs). FINDINGS More adolescents and young adults were expected to develop MSK disorders by 2050. Across five age groups, the rates of prevalence, YLDs, and DALYs for RA, NP, LBP, gout, and OMSKDs sharply increased from ages 15-19 to 35-39; however, these were negligible for OA before age 30 but increased notably at ages 30-34, rising at least 6-fold by 35-39. The disease burden of gout, LBP, and OA attributable to high BMI and gout attributable to kidney dysfunction increased, while the contribution of smoking to LBP and RA and occupational ergonomic factors to LBP decreased. Between 1990 and 2019, the slope index of inequality increased for six MSK disorders, and the relative concentration index increased for gout, NP, OA, and OMSKDs but decreased for LBP and RA. CONCLUSIONS Multilevel interventions should be initiated to prevent disease burden related to RA, NP, LBP, gout, and OMSKDs among individuals ages 15-19 and to OA among individuals ages 30-34 to tightly control high BMI and kidney dysfunction. FUNDING The Global Burden of Disease study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project is funded by the Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).
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Huang S, Jiang J, Wong HS, Zhu P, Ji X, Wang D. Global burden and prediction study of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma from 1990 to 2030: A systematic analysis and comparison with China. J Glob Health 2024; 14:04093. [PMID: 38695259 PMCID: PMC11063968 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.14.04093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Background China has the highest number of new cancer cases and deaths globally. Due to particularly low scores in health care quality for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), the country's cSCC burden requires greater awareness. Consequently, we aimed to evaluate and predict the trend of the cSCC burden globally and in China from 1990 to 2030. Methods We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, which provided estimates of the incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of cSCC from 1990 to 2019. We set up joint-point analyses and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models to predict the disease burden of cSCC up to 2030. Results In 2019, China reported age-standardised rates of cSCC prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs of 2.54, 2.12, 0.88, and 16.76 per 100 000 population, respectively. The country's prevalence and incidence rates from 1990 to 2019 were lower than the global levels, but its mortality and DALY rates were higher. The age-standardised rates were higher for males, and the disease burden increased with each age group globally and in China. Moreover, the average annual percentage change showed all indicators were growing faster than the global levels. According to the BAPC model, there will be an upward trend in the prevalence and incidence globally and in China between 2020 and 2030, with a decrease in mortality and DALYs. Conclusions We observed an upward trend in the cSCC burden over the past 30 years in China. Prevalence and incidence are expected to continue at a higher rate than the global average in the next decade, while mortality and DALYs are predicted to decrease. As the Chinese population ages, efforts toward managing and preventing cSCC should be targeted towards the elderly population.
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Dong C, Wu G, Li H, Qiao Y, Gao S. Type 1 and type 2 diabetes mortality burden: Predictions for 2030 based on Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis of China and global mortality burden from 1990 to 2019. J Diabetes Investig 2024; 15:623-633. [PMID: 38265170 PMCID: PMC11060160 DOI: 10.1111/jdi.14146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2023] [Revised: 12/07/2023] [Accepted: 12/27/2023] [Indexed: 01/25/2024] Open
Abstract
AIMS This study assessed diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality in China and globally from 1990 to 2019, predicting the next decade's trends. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data came from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for diabetes (type 1 and type 2) during 1990-2019 was calculated. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model predicted diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS In China, type 1 diabetes deaths declined from 6,005 to 4,504 cases (AAPC -2.827), while type 2 diabetes deaths rose from 64,084 to 168,388 cases (AAPC -0.763) from 1990 to 2019. Globally, type 1 diabetes deaths increased from 55,417 to 78,236 cases (AAPC 0.223), and type 2 diabetes deaths increased from 606,407 to 1,472,934 cases (AAPC 0.365). Both China and global trends showed declining type 1 diabetes ASMR. However, female type 2 diabetes ASMR in China initially increased and then decreased, while males had a rebound trend. Peak type 1 diabetes deaths were in the 40-44 age group, and type 2 diabetes peaked in those over 70. BAPC predicted declining diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality burden in China and globally over the next 10 years. CONCLUSIONS Type 2 diabetes mortality remained high in China and globally despite decreasing type 1 diabetes mortality over 30 years. Predictions suggest a gradual decrease in diabetes mortality over the next decade, highlighting the need for continued focus on type 2 diabetes prevention and treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chunping Dong
- Department of EndocrinologyShaanxi Provincial People's HospitalXi'an CityChina
| | - Guifu Wu
- Department of EndocrinologyShaanxi Provincial People's HospitalXi'an CityChina
| | - Hui Li
- Department of EndocrinologyShaanxi Provincial People's HospitalXi'an CityChina
| | - Yuan Qiao
- Department of EndocrinologyShaanxi Provincial People's HospitalXi'an CityChina
| | - Shan Gao
- Department of EndocrinologyShaanxi Provincial People's HospitalXi'an CityChina
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Yu J, Liu C, Zhang J, Wang X, Song K, Wu P, Liu F. Global, regional, and national burden of pancreatitis in older adults, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. Prev Med Rep 2024; 41:102722. [PMID: 38646072 PMCID: PMC11026839 DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2024.102722] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2023] [Revised: 04/07/2024] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 04/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Background To describe the past, present and future burden of pancreatitis in older adults, and to explore cross-national inequalities across socio-demographic index (SDI). Methods Data on pancreatitis in older adults, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Temporal trends were measured using joinpoint analyses and predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Additionally, the unequal distribution of the burden of pancreatitis in older adults was quantified. Results From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs due to pancreatitis in older adults has been increasing annually. However, in most regions of the world, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and age-standardized DALYs rates have been declining. The burden of pancreatitis in older adults was highest in low SDI region, primarily affecting the population aged 65-74, with a greater burden on males than females. Furthermore, from 1990 to 2019, absolute and relative cross-national inequalities in pancreatitis among older adults have remained largely unchanged. It is projected that in the next 11 years, the number of deaths in older adults due to pancreatitis will continue to increase, but the ASDR is expected to decline. Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate of pancreatitis in older adults have shown a decline globally, but the absolute burden continues to increase. Cross-national health inequalities persist. Therefore, it is necessary to develop targeted intervention measures and enhance awareness among this vulnerable population regarding the risk factors associated with pancreatitis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiangtao Yu
- Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230000, China
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Chunlong Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Jian Zhang
- Department of Neurosurgery, the Seventh Clinical College of China Medical University, Fushun 113001, China
| | - Xiangyu Wang
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Bengbu Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Kun Song
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Bengbu Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Panpan Wu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Fubao Liu
- Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230000, China
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Li C, Hua G, Liu S, Yu H, Yang X, Liu L. Global, regional, and national burden of blindness and vision loss attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2019, and forecasts to 2030: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Diabetes Metab Res Rev 2024; 40:e3802. [PMID: 38634501 DOI: 10.1002/dmrr.3802] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 03/14/2024] [Indexed: 04/19/2024]
Abstract
AIMS To systematically clarify the spatiotemporal trends, and age-sex-specific blindness and vision loss (BVL) burden due to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) from 1990 to 2019, and project this burden over the next decade. MATERIALS AND METHODS We obtained the number and rate of years lived with disability (YLDs) for the BVL burden attributable to HFPG by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and location between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated to assess the temporal trends of HFPG-attributable BVL burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the HFPG-attributable BVL burden. RESULTS In 2019, the global number and age-standardized rate (ASR) for YLDs of BVL attributable to HFPG were 673.13 (95% UI: 159.52 to 1565.34) thousand and 8.44 (95% UI: 2.00 to 19.63) per 100,000 people, respectively. The highest burdens were found in Oceania, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, and the BVL burden due to HFPG was higher in the elderly and lower SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global ASR of HFPG-attributable BVL gradually increased with AAPC (95% CI) being 0.80 (0.74 to 0.86). In addition, the HFPG-attributable BVL burden will slightly increase in the future decade. CONCLUSIONS The HFPG remains the important cause of BVL worldwide, placing a substantial disease burden. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized burden of BVL due to HFPG increased, and will consistently increase in the future decade, particularly in the elderly and in regions with middle SDI or below.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cong Li
- Department of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Eye Institute, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- School of Medicine South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China
| | - Guangyao Hua
- Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Shunming Liu
- Department of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Eye Institute, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Honghua Yu
- Department of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Eye Institute, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence in Medical Image Analysis and Application, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiaohong Yang
- Department of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Eye Institute, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Lei Liu
- Department of Ophthalmology, Guangdong Eye Institute, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- Department of Neurosurgery, Jincheng People's Hospital, Jincheng, Shanxi, China
- Department of Ophthalmology, The Third People's Hospital of Dalian, Non-Directly Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
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Tian T, Miao L, Wang W, Zhou X. Global, Regional and National Burden of Human Cystic Echinococcosis from 1990 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Trop Med Infect Dis 2024; 9:87. [PMID: 38668548 PMCID: PMC11054543 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed9040087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2024] [Revised: 03/21/2024] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 04/29/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a neglected tropical parasitic disease that poses huge disease, social and economic burdens worldwide; however, there has been little knowledge on the global morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CE until now. This study aimed to collect the most up-to-date data about the global, regional and national disease burden due to CE from 1990 to 2019 and to project trends in the next 10 years. METHODS We measured the global, regional and national morbidity, mortality and DALYs of CE from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) data, and we examined the correlation between socioeconomic development levels and the disease burden of CE. In addition, the disease burden due to CE was projected from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of CE reduced from 2.65/105 [95% UI: (1.87/105 to 3.7/105)] in 1990 to 2.6/105 [95% UI: (1.72/105 to 3.79/105)] in 2019 (EAPC = -0.18%). The number of deaths, DALYs, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate due to CE all showed a tendency to decline from 1990 to 2019. A higher disease burden of CE was measured in women than in men in 2019. There was a significant difference in the ASMR of CE by region according to the socio-demographic index (SDI), and lower burdens of CE were estimated in high-SDI regions. The global ASIR of CE is projected to decline from 2020 to 2030; however, the ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate are projected to rise. CONCLUSIONS The global burden of CE remains high, and it is recommended that more health resources are allocated to low-SDI regions, women and the elderly aged 55 to 65 years to reduce the disease burden of CE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tian Tian
- National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China;
| | - Liyuan Miao
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China;
- One Health Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University—The University of Edinburgh, Shanghai 200025, China
| | - Wei Wang
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Parasitic Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory on Parasite and Vector Control Technology, Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi 214064, China;
| | - Xiaonong Zhou
- National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China;
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China;
- One Health Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University—The University of Edinburgh, Shanghai 200025, China
- Hainan Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Haikou 571199, China
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Su J, Liang Y, He X. Global, regional, and national burden and trends analysis of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Front Med (Lausanne) 2024; 11:1384314. [PMID: 38638933 PMCID: PMC11024434 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2024.1384314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2024] [Accepted: 03/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Objectives Our aim was to explore the disease burden caused by gallbladder and biliary tract cancer globally, regionally, and nationally, by age and sex. Methods The absolute number of cases and age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to gallbladder and biliary tract cancer were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We estimated the trends in disease burden by calculating the percentage change in the absolute number of cases and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASR, by social development index (SDI), region, nation, sex, and age. Results From 1990 to 2019, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, deaths, and DALYs worldwide significantly increased by 1.85-fold, 1.92-fold, 1.82-fold, and 1.68-fold, respectively. However, the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs tend to decrease globally over time. Nevertheless, heterogeneous disease burden patterns exist between geographic regions due to different geographical risk factors, distinct epidemiologically predominant gallbladder and biliary tract cancer subtypes, and potential genetic predispositions or ethnicity. Additionally, socioeconomic status mediates the regional variation in disease burden, with increasing SDI or HDI scores associated with downward trends in the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. Older individuals and females are at higher risk of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, but the increasing burden of early-onset gallbladder and biliary tract cancer is a cause for concern, especially for those living in lower SDI areas and males. High BMI is the primary risk factors underlying gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, accounted for 15.2% of deaths and 15.7% DALYs globally in 2019. Conclusion Our study comprehensively elucidated the distribution and dynamic trends of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer burden over the past three decades, from multiple dimensions. These findings emphasize the importance of promoting a healthy lifestyle as a population-level cancer prevention strategy and tailoring cancer control actions based on localized risk factors and the epidemic profiles of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer by anatomical subtype.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiao Su
- Department of Biochemistry, Changzhi Medical College, Changzhi, China
| | - Yuanhao Liang
- Clinical Experimental Center, Jiangmen Key Laboratory of Clinical Biobanks and Translational Research, Jiangmen Central Hospital, Jiangmen, China
| | - Xiaofeng He
- Institute of Evidence-Based Medicine, Heping Hospital Affiliated to Changzhi Medical College, Changzhi, China
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10
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Li W, Wang W. Contribution of High Body Mass Index to the Global Burden of Esophageal Cancer: A Population-Based Study from 1990 to 2019. Dig Dis Sci 2024; 69:1125-1134. [PMID: 38433126 DOI: 10.1007/s10620-024-08290-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2023] [Accepted: 01/09/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The changing patterns of obesity have had a significant impact on the epidemiology of esophageal cancer (EC). AIMS This study aimed to investigate the specific burden of EC associated with high body mass index (BMI) across different geographical and Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. METHODS Mortality, age-standardized death rates (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed for 204 countries and territories. Decomposition analysis, frontier and health inequality analyses, and age-period-cohort models were employed to examine the factors driving disease burden and to predict future trends. RESULTS High BMI contributed to 89,903.9 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 27,878.9-171,254.6] EC-related deaths, an ASDR of 1.1 (95% UI 0.3-2.1) per 100,000 population, and 2,202,314.1 (681,901.4-4,173,080.3) DALYs in 2019. There was an increasing trend in these figures over the 29-year period. The middle SDI region (31,023.8, 95% UI 9,180.4-62,631.5) and East Asia (36,939.9, 95% UI 9,620.5-81,495) carried the highest burden of EC-related deaths. Disease burden increased across all age groups and genders globally. Population growth was a major factor driving EC deaths across all SDI quintiles. Disparities in disease burden were observed across countries at all development levels. Predictive models indicated a continued increase in EC-related deaths in the next decade. CONCLUSIONS The study provided a comprehensive understanding of the global burden of EC associated with high BMI over the past decades. Opportunities exist to reduce this burden at all SDI levels through targeted interventions and policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenjie Li
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Baiyun District, Guangzhou, 510515, Guangdong, China
| | - Wei Wang
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Baiyun District, Guangzhou, 510515, Guangdong, China.
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11
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Tao M, Guo HY, Ji X, Wang W, Yuan H, Peng H. Long-term trends in Alzheimer's disease and other dementias deaths with high body mass index in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections up to 2042. Arch Public Health 2024; 82:42. [PMID: 38528579 DOI: 10.1186/s13690-024-01273-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2023] [Accepted: 03/18/2024] [Indexed: 03/27/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In China, the rising prevalence of high Body Mass Index (BMI) is linked to increasing health issues, including Alzheimer's disease (AD). This study analyzes mortality trends related to AD and other dementias associated with high BMI from 1990 to 2019, considering age, period, and birth cohort effects, and forecasts future trends. METHODS We analyzed mortality data for AD and other dementias linked to high BMI in Chinese residents from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. Using Joinpoint regression, we examined age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trends and calculated annual and average annual percentage changes (APC and AAPC). Age-period-cohort models provided deeper insights, with Bayesian models used to project future ASMR trends to 2042. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the ASMR for AD and other dementias associated with high BMI in China showed an overall increasing trend. Females had a lower increase rate than males, yet their overall levels remained higher. Specifically, the ASMR for males increased by an average of 2.70% per year, peaking between 2006 and 2010, while for females, it increased by an average of 2.29% per year, also peaking in the same period. Age-period-cohort analysis revealed increasing mortality relative risk with age and period, but a decrease with birth cohort. Projections suggest a continued rise in ASMR by 2042, with rates for males and females expected to be 2.48/100,000 and 2.94/100,000, respectively. CONCLUSION The increasing mortality trend from AD and other dementias associated with high BMI highlights the urgent need for policy interventions focused on overweight prevention, particularly vital for addressing the health challenges in China's aging population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mengjun Tao
- Health management center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, Anhui, China
| | - Hao-Yang Guo
- School of Public Health, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, Anhui, China
| | - Xincan Ji
- School of Public Health, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, Anhui, China
| | - Wei Wang
- School of Public Health, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, Anhui, China
| | - Hui Yuan
- School of Public Health, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, Anhui, China.
| | - Hui Peng
- Department of Science and Technology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, Anhui, China.
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Chen H, Zhang L, Shi X, Zhou Z, Fang X, Yang H, Hunter DJ, Ding C, Zhu Z. Evaluation of Osteoarthritis Disease Burden in China During 1990-2019 and Forecasting Its Trend Over the Future 25 Years. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken) 2024. [PMID: 38443728 DOI: 10.1002/acr.25322] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2023] [Revised: 02/07/2024] [Accepted: 03/01/2024] [Indexed: 03/07/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study aimed to estimate the temporal trend of osteoarthritis (OA) burden in China by age, sex, and joint sites from 1990 to 2019 and predict the long-term trend over the next 25 years. METHODS Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we estimated incident cases, prevalent cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of OA, and DALYs of OA attributed to high body mass index (BMI), as well as corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) for aforementioned indicies. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Nordpred age-period-cohort model were used to describe temporal trend changes and predict future disease burden. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the ASR of OA incidence increased from 472.53 per 100,000 to 509.84 per 100,000 people (EAPC: 0.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29-0.44); the ASR of OA prevalence increased from 5,880.58 per 100,000 to 6,330.06 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.35, 95% CI 0.28-0.42); the ASR of OA DALYs increased from 206.38 per 100,000 to 224.78 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.40, 95% CI 0.32-0.48). The ASR of OA DALYs attributed to high BMI increased rapidly, especially in men and patients with hip OA. Projections suggest an increasing trend in the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of OA from 2019 to 2044, with the prevalent cases and DALYs of OA in China expected to increase by approximately 1.5 times over the next 25 years. CONCLUSION The disease burden of OA has increased in China over the past 30 years and is expected to continue rising over the next 25 years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haowei Chen
- Zhujiang Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Lei Zhang
- Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, China, Melbourne Sexual Health Centre and Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Xiaorui Shi
- Zhujiang Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zhounan Zhou
- Zhujiang Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiaofeng Fang
- Zhujiang Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hao Yang
- Zhujiang Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - David J Hunter
- Zhujiang Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China, Royal North Shore Hospital and University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Changhai Ding
- Zhujiang Hospital of Southern Medical University and Guangzhou First People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China, Affiliated Hospital of Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities, Baise, China, and University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Zhaohua Zhu
- Zhujiang Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- Royal North Shore Hospital, Kolling Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
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Wu G, Wu Q, Xu J, Gao G, Chen T, Chen G. Mortality burden and future projections of major risk factors for esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. Gen Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2024; 72:192-201. [PMID: 37973657 DOI: 10.1007/s11748-023-01987-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2023] [Accepted: 10/25/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study, based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, aimed to report the long-term trend in mortality rates caused by risk factors for esophageal cancer (EC) in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the burden of EC mortality caused by these risk factors over the next 15 years. METHODS We examined six risk factors that influenced EC mortality rates in China and their respective rankings. Furthermore, we analyzed the number of deaths and crude mortality rates (CMR) caused by these risk factors for both sexes and different age groups. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and the number of deaths across all age groups were also analyzed. Finally, we utilized the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to predict the trends in ASMR burden caused by these risk factors in the future. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the percentage changes in ASMR for EC caused by the six risk factors in China were as follows: smoking (- 33.4%), alcohol consumption (- 23.0%), low fruit intake (- 73.6%), low vegetable intake (- 96.0%), high Body Mass Index (BMI) (25.1%), and tobacco chewing (- 32.8%). In 2019, the top three risk factors contributing to EC ASMR in China were smoking, alcohol consumption, and high BMI. Overall, the ASMR for EC in China fluctuated and declined from 1990 to 2019. The most common risk factors for males were smoking and alcohol consumption, while low fruit intake and high BMI were the most common risk factors for females. The impact of these risk factors on EC mortality increased with age, except for the elderly population. BAPC analysis indicated that the influence of these risk factors on ASMR was expected to remain relatively stable in the next 15 years, suggesting a continued significant burden of EC. CONCLUSION The projected burden of EC mortality in China was expected to continue increasing steadily over the next 15 years, highlighting the pressing need for disease control measures. To alleviate this burden, targeted prevention and control policies addressing risk factors for EC such as smoking, alcohol consumption, and high BMI are necessary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guibin Wu
- Department of Medical Oncology, Anxi County Hospital, No. 249-259, Hebin South Road, Fengcheng Town, Anxi County, 362400, Fujian Province, China.
| | - Qingxiang Wu
- Blood Purification Centre, Anxi County Hospital, Anxi County, 362400, Fujian Province, China
| | - Juan Xu
- Department of Medical Oncology, Anxi County Hospital, No. 249-259, Hebin South Road, Fengcheng Town, Anxi County, 362400, Fujian Province, China
| | - Genhua Gao
- Department of Medical Oncology, Anxi County Hospital, No. 249-259, Hebin South Road, Fengcheng Town, Anxi County, 362400, Fujian Province, China
| | - Tingting Chen
- Department of Medical Oncology, Anxi County Hospital, No. 249-259, Hebin South Road, Fengcheng Town, Anxi County, 362400, Fujian Province, China
| | - Guowei Chen
- Department of Medical Oncology, Anxi County Hospital, No. 249-259, Hebin South Road, Fengcheng Town, Anxi County, 362400, Fujian Province, China
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14
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Ma J, Song YD, Bai XM. Global, regional, and national burden and trends of early-onset tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer from 1990 to 2019. Thorac Cancer 2024; 15:601-613. [PMID: 38303633 DOI: 10.1111/1759-7714.15227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2023] [Revised: 01/12/2024] [Accepted: 01/13/2024] [Indexed: 02/03/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBL) is one of the main cancer health problems worldwide, but data on the burden and trends of early-onset tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (EO-TBL) are sparse. The aim of the present study was to provide the latest and the most comprehensive burden estimates of the EO-TBL cancer from 1990 to 2019. METHODS Overall, we used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in EO-TBL cancer from 1990 to 2019. Evaluation metrics included incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends. Decomposition analysis was employed to analyze the driving factors for EO-TBL cancer burden alterations. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was used to estimate trends in the next 20 years. RESULTS The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) for EO-TBL cancer decreased significantly from 3.95 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 3.70-4.24), 3.41 (95% UI: 3.19-3.67), 158.68 (95% UI: 148.04-170.92) in 1990 to 2.82 (95% UI: 2.54-3.09), 2.28 (95% UI: 2.07-2.49), 106.47 (95% UI: 96.83-116.51) in 2019 with average annual percent change (AAPC) of -1.14% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.32 to -0.95), -1.37% (95% CI: -1.55 to -1.18), and - 1.35% (95% CI: -1.54 to -1.15) separately. The high and high-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) region had a higher burden of EO-TBL cancer but demonstrated a downward trend. The most prominent and significant upward trends were Southeast and South Asia, Africa, and women in the low SDI and low-middle SDI quintiles. At the regional and national level, there were significant positive correlations between ASDR, ASIR, ASMR, and SDI. Decomposition analysis showed that population growth and aging have driven the increase in the number of incidence, mortality, and DALYs in the global population, especially among the middle SDI quintile and the East Asia region. The BAPC results showed that ASDR, ASIR, and ASMR in women would increase but the male population remained relatively flat over the next 20 years. CONCLUSIONS Although global efforts have been the most successful and effective in reducing the burden of EO-TBL cancer over the past three decades, there was strong regional and gender heterogeneity. EO-TBL cancer need more medical attention in the lower SDI quintiles and in the female population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun Ma
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Shanxi Provincial People's Hospital, Taiyuan, China
- Fifth Clinical Medical College, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Ying-da Song
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Shanxi Provincial People's Hospital, Taiyuan, China
- Fifth Clinical Medical College, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiao-Ming Bai
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Shanxi Provincial People's Hospital, Taiyuan, China
- Fifth Clinical Medical College, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, People's Republic of China
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15
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Wang H, Chen Y, Yang Z, Zhu L, Zhao Y, Tian T. Estimation and projection of the burden of hearing loss in China: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Public Health 2024; 228:119-127. [PMID: 38354581 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.01.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2023] [Revised: 12/20/2023] [Accepted: 01/04/2024] [Indexed: 02/16/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The comprehensive description of hearing loss in China and the shifting pattern remain unclear. We conducted the study to estimate the burden of hearing loss in China and project the trends from 2020 to 2034. STUDY DESIGN AND METHOD Data on the disease burden of hearing loss were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends of the age-standardized rates. Projections of hearing loss burden were made until 2034 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. RESULTS In China, prevalent cases of hearing loss increased from 224.4 million in 1990 to 426.5 million in 2019, representing an increase of 90.1 %. The age-standardized prevalence rate of hearing loss ranged from 22,592.8/100,000 in 1990-22,612.4/100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.003 %, representing a stable trend. Of the category of hearing loss, mild hearing loss accounted for the highest proportion, with 331.4 million people. More than 95 million people had moderate-to-complete hearing loss. Moreover, hearing loss was mostly attributable to age-related and other factors for adults and otitis media for children younger than 10 years. Based on the projection results, there will be 561 million people (40.1 % of the total population) have hearing loss by 2034. CONCLUSIONS The prevalent cases of hearing loss in China substantially increased over the last 30 years. Over two in five Chinese people will have hearing loss by 2034, thus suggesting more solutions should be established to reduce the burden of hearing loss.
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Affiliation(s)
- H Wang
- Department of Medical Insurance, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, Heilongjiang Province, PR China
| | - Y Chen
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, Heilongjiang Province, PR China
| | - Z Yang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, Heilongjiang Province, PR China
| | - L Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, Heilongjiang Province, PR China.
| | - Y Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, Heilongjiang Province, PR China.
| | - T Tian
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Harbin Medical University, Harbin 150081, Heilongjiang Province, PR China.
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Geng J, Zhao J, Fan R, Zhu Z, Zhang Y, Zhu Y, Yang Y, Xu L, Lin X, Hu K, Rudan I, Song P, Li X, Wu X. Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care of multiple myeloma, 1990-2019. J Glob Health 2024; 14:04033. [PMID: 38299781 PMCID: PMC10832550 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.14.04033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Multiple myeloma (MM) is the second most common haematologic malignancy, presenting a great disease burden on the general population; however, the quality of care of MM is overlooked. We therefore assessed gains and disparity in quality of care worldwide from 1990 to 2019 based on a novel summary indicator - the quality of care index (QCI) - and examined its potential for improvement. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 data set, we calculated the QCI of MM for 195 countries and territories. We used the principal component analysis to extract the first principal component of ratios with the combinations of mortality to incidence, prevalence to incidence, disability-adjusted life years to prevalence, and years of life lost to years lived with disability as QCI. We also conducted a series of descriptive and comparative analyses of QCI disparities with age, gender, period, geographies, and sociodemographic development, and compared the QCI among countries with similar socio-demographic index (SDI) through frontier analysis. Results The age-standardised rates of MM were 1.92 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 1.68, 2.12) in incidence and 1.42 (95% UI = 1.24, 1.52) in deaths per 100 000 population in 2019, and were predicted to increase in the future. The global age-standardised QCI increased from 51.31 in 1990 to 64.28 in 2019. In 2019, New Zealand had the highest QCI at 99.29 and the Central African Republic had the lowest QCI at 10.74. The gender disparity of QCI was reduced over the years, with the largest being observed in the sub-Saharan region. Regarding age, QCI maintained a decreasing trend in patients aged >60 in SDI quintiles. Generally, QCI improved with the SDI increase. Results of frontier analysis suggested that there is a potential to improve the quality of care across all levels of development spectrum. Conclusions Quality of care of MM improved during the past three decades, yet disparities in MM care remain across different countries, age groups, and genders. It is crucial to establish local objectives aimed at enhancing MM care and closing the gap in health care inequality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiawei Geng
- Department of Big Data in Health Science School of Public Health, Centre of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
- Centre for Global Health, School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Jianhui Zhao
- Department of Big Data in Health Science School of Public Health, Centre of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Rong Fan
- Department of Big Data in Health Science School of Public Health, Centre of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Zecheng Zhu
- Department of Big Data in Health Science School of Public Health, Centre of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yuchen Zhang
- Department of Big Data in Health Science School of Public Health, Centre of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yingshuang Zhu
- Colorectal Surgery and Oncology, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yichi Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
- Department of Social Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Hirosaki University, Hirosaki, Japan
| | - Liying Xu
- Department of Big Data in Health Science School of Public Health, Centre of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xiangjie Lin
- Department of Hematology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
- Key Laboratory of Hematologic Malignancies, Diagnosis and Treatment, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Kejia Hu
- Department of Hematology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Igor Rudan
- Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Peige Song
- School of Public Health and Women's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xue Li
- Department of Big Data in Health Science School of Public Health, Centre of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
- Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Xifeng Wu
- Department of Big Data in Health Science School of Public Health, Centre of Clinical Big Data and Analytics of The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
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Liu Y, Wen H, Bai J, Sun J, Chen J, Yu C. Disease Burden and Prediction Analysis of Tracheal, Bronchus, and Lung Cancer Attributable to Residential Radon, Solid Fuels, and Particulate Matter Pollution Under Different Sociodemographic Transitions From 1990 to 2030. Chest 2024; 165:446-460. [PMID: 37806491 DOI: 10.1016/j.chest.2023.09.028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2022] [Revised: 09/22/2023] [Accepted: 09/24/2023] [Indexed: 10/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study investigated the impact of epidemiologic and sociodemographic changes in tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer associated with residential radon, solid fuels, and particulate matter. RESEARCH QUESTION What are the influencing factors of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer disease burden attributable to the three pollutants? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and sociodemographic index (SDI) values were collected from 21 regions, and restricted cubic splines and quantile regression were used to investigate the relationship between ASMR or age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), and SDI. Additionally, five countries with different SDIs were selected, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the ASMR trends from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS High SDI quintiles were associated with increased residential radon pollution. The disease burden attributed to these three pollutants was particularly severe in the middle SDI quintiles. Older adults aged 80 to 89 years had the highest age-specific mortality, and the disease burden was greater in male patients than in female patients with these cancers attributed to the pollutants. The highest ASMR attributable to particulate matter when the SDI was 0.7. As the SDI increased, the disease burden caused by radon increased, whereas the burden caused by solid fuels decreased. Projections have indicated a rise in the death burden in patients with this cancer from particulate pollution in China, India, and Uganda over the next decade. INTERPRETATION The disease burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer attributed to the three pollutants was influenced by SDI, sex, and age. Older men are more susceptible to be affected. More preventive interventions may be required for men at younger ages to reduce the high death burden of older men. However, it is necessary to give due attention to women in specific countries in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yan Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China; Hunan Key Laboratory of Typical Environmental Pollution and Health Hazards, School of Public Health, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan, China
| | - Haoyu Wen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Jianjun Bai
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Jinyi Sun
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Jiahao Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
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Jiang L, Zhao N, Xu M, Pei J, Lin Y, Yao Q, Hu M, Zhu C. Incidence trends of primary liver cancer in different geographical regions of China from 1978 to 2012 and projections to 2032: An age-period-cohort analysis. Int J Cancer 2024; 154:465-476. [PMID: 37707172 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2023] [Revised: 07/25/2023] [Accepted: 08/22/2023] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
Abstract
China accounted for 45.3% of new cases of primary liver cancer (PLC) worldwide in 2020. While variations in PLC incidence between different regions of China and decreasing incidence in overall China have been reported, incidence patterns have not been thoroughly explored by region. We examined the nearly status and temporal trends of PLC incidence in different geographical regions in China and project future trends. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) was estimated for 1978 to 2012 by different geographical regions and gender in China. Age-period-cohort model was adopted to evaluate age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trend of five registries of China (Hong Kong, Shanghai, Jiashan, Harbin and Zhongshan), Bayesian age-period-cohort model was adopted to project future trends for 2013 to 2032. PLC incidence in China exhibits marked geographical disparity, with the highest incidence in Southwest China, and gender differences being particularly pronounced in South China. While other registries exhibited decreasing trend, Zhongshan exhibited an increasing trend, with the cohort effect showing a marked upward trend for females born in 1916 to 1949 and males born in 1916 to 1962. During 2013 to 2032, the ASR appears to increase by 86.9% for men and 40.0% for women in Zhongshan, while the remaining registries will decline by around 50%. Since the high incidence of hepatitis B virus infection in early birth cohort, recent rise of nonviral risk factors and the severe aging of the Chinese population, it may be critical to tailor future prevention and control strategies for PLC to the distribution of risk factors in different geographical regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lin Jiang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Ningxuan Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Minghan Xu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Jiao Pei
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Sichuan Cancer Hospital and Institute, Sichuan Cancer Center, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China
| | - Yidie Lin
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Qiang Yao
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Meijing Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Cairong Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
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Wang X, Liu C, Yang Y, Huang X, Yu J. Burden of pancreatic cancer in older adults globally, regionally, and in 204 countries: 1990-2019 and projections to 2030. J Gastrointest Surg 2024; 28:121-131. [PMID: 38445933 DOI: 10.1016/j.gassur.2023.12.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2023] [Accepted: 10/28/2023] [Indexed: 03/07/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global aging is increasing; however, the epidemiologic characteristics of pancreatic cancer in older adults have not been systematically studied. METHODS This study used data on pancreatic cancer in older adults from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 project. Temporal trends were measured using average annual percentage change and predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. In addition, the inequality slope index and the health concentration index scores were calculated to quantify the unequal distribution of the burden of pancreatic cancer in older adults. RESULTS Between 1990 and 2019, the number of pancreatic cancer deaths in older adults, age-standardized death rate (ASDR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALY rate increased globally. In 2019, ASDR and age-standardized DALY rate for pancreatic cancer in older adults were the highest in Southern Latin America, whereas the burden has grown the fastest over the past 30 years in the Caribbean. The burden is predominantly distributed among those aged 65 to 74 years, with males having a higher burden than that of females. The global proportion of pancreatic cancer deaths in older adults attributed to smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index were 21.7%, 10.3%, and 5.8%, respectively. Both absolute and relative cross-national inequalities declined over the past 30 years but remained at medium-high levels of relative inequality. Deaths from pancreatic cancer among older adults are expected to continue to increase over the next 11 years. CONCLUSION The global burden of pancreatic cancer among older adults has continued to rise over the past 30 years, and cross-national health inequalities remain high. Therefore, targeted measures must be taken to address this inequality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuan Wang
- Department of Surgery, Suixi County Hospital, Anhui, China; Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, China
| | - Chunlong Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, China
| | - Yong Yang
- Department of Surgery, Suixi County Hospital, Anhui, China
| | - Xiachun Huang
- Department of Surgery, Suixi County Hospital, Anhui, China.
| | - Jiangtao Yu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, China.
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Ma Q, Zhu J, Zheng P, Zhang J, Xia X, Zhao Y, Cheng Q, Zhang N. Global burden of atrial fibrillation/flutter: Trends from 1990 to 2019 and projections until 2044. Heliyon 2024; 10:e24052. [PMID: 38293361 PMCID: PMC10825430 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2023] [Accepted: 01/03/2024] [Indexed: 02/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Aims Atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) is a critical public health issue worldwide, and its epidemiological patterns have changed over the decades. This work aimed to assess the global trends of AF/AFL and attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods and results The present study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to examine the temporal trends, attributable risks, and projections of AF/AFL. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and age-standardized rate (ASR) were employed for this purpose. The findings revealed that in 2019, AF/AFL accounted for 4.72 million incident cases, 59.70 million prevalent cases, 0.32 million deaths, and 8.39 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Furthermore, the results indicated that males under 70 years of age had a higher incidence, prevalence, and DALYs than females, while the rates were similar for both genders between 70 and 74 years. However, this pattern was reversed in individuals over the age of 75, with females exhibiting a higher total incidence, prevalence, and DALYs than males. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs increased with an increase in the socio-demographic index (SDI). The three primary contributors to AF/AFL were high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, and smoking. Majority of risk factors exhibited a unimodal distribution, with a peak between the ages of 50 and 70. Conclusions The disease burden of AF/AFL is still severe worldwide and getting worse. To encourage prevention and treatment, systematic regional surveillance of AF/AFL should be put in place.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qunchao Ma
- Department of Cardiology, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University College of Medicine, 88 Jiefang Rd, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, 310009, PR China
| | - Jinyun Zhu
- Department of Cardiology, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University College of Medicine, 88 Jiefang Rd, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, 310009, PR China
| | - Pingping Zheng
- Department of Emergency, The Affiliated Hangzhou First People's Hospital, College of Medicine, Westlake University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, 310006, PR China
| | - Jiaru Zhang
- Department of Cardiology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, 350000, PR China
| | - Xiangyang Xia
- Department of Cardiology, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University College of Medicine, 88 Jiefang Rd, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, 310009, PR China
| | - Yun Zhao
- Department of Ultrasound, Second Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University, Taian, Shandong Province, 271000, PR China
| | - Qingqiang Cheng
- Department of Cardiology, the Affiliated Hangzhou First People’s Hospital, College of Medicine, Westlake University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, 310006, PR China
| | - Ning Zhang
- Department of Cardiology, the Affiliated Hangzhou First People’s Hospital, College of Medicine, Westlake University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, 310006, PR China
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Chen J, Qiu Y, Wu W, Yang R, Li L, Yang Y, Yang X, Xu L. Trends and Projection of the Incidence of Active Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Southwestern China: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2023; 9:e48015. [PMID: 38157236 PMCID: PMC10787335 DOI: 10.2196/48015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2023] [Revised: 06/19/2023] [Accepted: 10/31/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The control of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is critical for achieving the vision of World Health Organization's End TB goal. OBJECTIVE This study analyzes the temporal trends in PTB incidence associated with age, period, and birth cohorts from 2006 to 2020 in Yunnan, China; projects the PTB burden till 2030; and explores the drivers of PTB incidence. METHODS The aggregated PTB incidence rates between 2005 and 2020 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System. We used the age-period-cohort model to evaluate the age, period, and cohort effects on PTB incidence. We applied the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project future PTB incidence from 2021 to 2030. We applied the decomposition algorithm to attribute the incidence trends to population aging, population growth, and age-specific changes from 2006 to 2030. RESULTS From 2006 to 2020, the PTB incidence in Yunnan was relatively stable, although the absolute number showed an increase. The net drift was -1.56% (95% CI -2.41% to -0.70%). An M-shaped bimodal local drift and a longitudinal age curve were observed. The overall local drift was below zero for most age groups except for the age groups of 15-19 years (2.37%, 95% CI -0.28% to 5.09%) and 50-54 years (0.41%, 95% CI -1.78% to 2.64%). The highest risk of PTB incidence was observed in the age group of 65-69 years, and another peak was observed in the age group of 20-24 years. Downward trends were observed for both period and cohort effects, but the cohort effect trends were uneven. A higher risk was observed for the birth cohorts of 1961-1970 (rate ratio [RR]1961-1965=1.10, 95% CI 0.88-1.38; RR1966-1970=1.11, 95% CI 0.92-1.37) and 2001-2010 (RR2001-2005=0.92, 95% CI 0.63-1.34; RR2006-2010=0.84, 95% CI 0.45-1.58) than for the adjacent cohorts. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model projected that PTB incidence will continually increase from 2021 to 2030 and that PTB incidence in 2030 will be 2.28 times higher than that in 2006. The age-specific change was the leading cause for the growing PTB disease burden. CONCLUSIONS Although there are several levels and measures for PTB control, the disease burden is likely to increase in the future. To bridge the gap of TB-free vision, our study suggests that public health policies be put in place soon, including large-scale active case-finding, priority prevention policies for high-risk older adult and young adult populations, and reduction of possible grandparent-grandchildren transmission patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinou Chen
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Yubing Qiu
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Wei Wu
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Rui Yang
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Ling Li
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Yunbin Yang
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Xing Yang
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Lin Xu
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
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Liu X, Cheng LC, Gao TY, Luo J, Zhang C. The burden of brain and central nervous system cancers in Asia from 1990 to 2019 and its predicted level in the next twenty-five years : Burden and prediction model of CNS cancers in Asia. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:2522. [PMID: 38104107 PMCID: PMC10724911 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-17467-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 12/19/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Primary brain and central nervous system cancer (collectively called CNS cancers) cause a significant burden to society. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the trends in the burden of CNS cancers from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the incidence and mortality rates and the corresponding numbers for the next 25 years to help countries to understand the trends in its incidence and mortality, and to make better adjustments or formulation of policies and allocation of resources thereby reducing the burden of the disease. METHODS The 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study provided incidence rates, death rates, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) data in Asia from 1990 to 2019. To reflect the trends in the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rates, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was determined. The Bayesian age-period cohort (BAPC) model was employed to predict the burden of CNS cancers in the next 25 years. RESULTS The incidence, death, and DALY rates of CNS cancers all increased from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for CNS cancers increased from 9.89/100,000 in 1990 to 12.14/100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.69 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65, 0.73). The ASDR and the age-standardized DALY rate both decreased, with EAPCs of - 0.08 and - 0.52, respectively. Before 2005, the age-standardized DALY rate in East Asia was much greater in females than in males, while in Central Asia, the age-standardized death and DALY rates in males both increased sharply after 2000. In contrast to 1990, the caseload increased for the 55-70 years age group. The number of deaths decreased sharply among individuals aged younger than 20 years, especially in East Asia, accounting for only 5.41% of all deaths. The age group with the highest mortality rate was > 60 years, especially in Japan. The ASIR will continue to increase in Asia from 2020 to 2044, and the ASDR will gradually diminish. The incidence and number of deaths from CNS cancers in Asia are expected to increase over the next 25 years, especially among females. CONCLUSIONS The study identified an increasing trend in morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with differences in age-standardized morbidity rates for different population groups. In addition, it is noteworthy that the burden of disease (as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)) is higher among women in Central Asia compared with other regions. ASIR will continue to increase over the next 25 years, with the increase in female cases and mortality expected to be more pronounced. This may need to be further substantiated by additional research, on the basis of which health authorities and policymakers can better utilize limited resources and develop appropriate policies and preventive measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xin Liu
- Center for Evidence-Based Medicine and Clinical Research, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, No.32, Renmin South Road, Shiyan, 442000, China
| | - Lin-Can Cheng
- Center for Evidence-Based Medicine and Clinical Research, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, No.32, Renmin South Road, Shiyan, 442000, China
| | - Teng-Yu Gao
- Center for Evidence-Based Medicine and Clinical Research, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, No.32, Renmin South Road, Shiyan, 442000, China
| | - Jie Luo
- Center for Evidence-Based Medicine and Clinical Research, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, No.32, Renmin South Road, Shiyan, 442000, China.
- Department of Neurosurgery, Center for Evidence-Based Medicine and Clinical Research, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, No. 32, Renmin South Road, Shiyan, 442000, China.
| | - Chao Zhang
- Center for Evidence-Based Medicine and Clinical Research, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, No.32, Renmin South Road, Shiyan, 442000, China.
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Emmert-Fees KMF, Luhar S, O'Flaherty M, Kypridemos C, Laxy M. Forecasting the mortality burden of coronary heart disease and stroke in Germany: National trends and regional inequalities. Int J Cardiol 2023; 393:131359. [PMID: 37757987 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2023.131359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2023] [Revised: 08/11/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The decline of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has slowed in many countries, including Germany. We examined the implications of this trend for future coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in Germany considering persistent mortality inequalities between former East and West Germany. METHODS We retrieved demographic and mortality data from 1991 to 2019 from the German Federal Statistical Office. Using a Bayesian age-period-cohort framework, we projected CHD and stroke mortality from 2019 to 2035, stratified by sex and German region. We decomposed annual changes in deaths into three components (mortality rates, population age structure and population size) and assessed regional inequalities with age-sex-standardized mortality ratios. RESULTS We confirmed that declines of CVD mortality rates in Germany will likely stagnate. From 2019 to 2035, we projected fewer annual CHD deaths (114,600 to 103,500 [95%-credible interval: 81,700; 134,000]) and an increase in stroke deaths (51,300 to 53,700 [41,400; 72,000]). Decomposing past and projected mortality, we showed that population ageing was and is offset by declining mortality rates. This likely reverses after 2030 leading to increased CVD deaths thereafter. Inequalities between East and West declined substantially since 1991 and are projected to stabilize for CHD but narrow for stroke. CONCLUSIONS CVD deaths in Germany likely keep declining until 2030, but may increase thereafter due to population ageing if the reduction in mortality rates slows further. East-West mortality inequalities for CHD remain stable but may converge for stroke. Underlying risk factor trends need to be monitored and addressed by public health policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karl M F Emmert-Fees
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology (IBE), Faculty of Medicine, LMU Munich, Pettenkofer School of Public Health, Munich, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Neuherberg, Germany; Department of Sports and Health Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
| | - Shammi Luhar
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Martin O'Flaherty
- Department of Public Health, Policy & Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Chris Kypridemos
- Department of Public Health, Policy & Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Michael Laxy
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Neuherberg, Germany; Department of Sports and Health Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
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Zhou JL, Bao JC, Liao XY, Chen YJ, Wang LW, Fan YY, Xu QY, Hao LX, Li KJ, Liang MX, Hu TH, Liu ZJ, Hu YQ. Trends and projections of inflammatory bowel disease at the global, regional and national levels, 1990-2050: a bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:2507. [PMID: 38097968 PMCID: PMC10722679 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-17431-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2023] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a global health concern with varying levels and trends across countries and regions. Understanding these differences is crucial for effective prevention and treatment strategies. METHODS Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we examine IBD incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates in 198 countries from 1990 to 2019. To assess changes in the burden of IBD, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the future 30-year trends of IBD. RESULTS In 2019, there were 405,000 new IBD cases globally (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 361,000 to 457,000), with 41,000 deaths (95% UI 35,000 to 45,000) and 1.62million DALYs (95% UI 1.36-1.92million). The global age-standardized incidence rate in 2019 was 4.97 per 100,000 person-years (95% UI 4.43 to 5.59), with a mortality rate of 0.54 (95% UI 0.46 to 0.59) and DALYs rate of 20.15 (95% UI 16.86 to 23.71). From 1990 to 2019, EAPC values for incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates were - 0.60 (95% UI - 0.73 to - 0.48), - 0.69 (95% UI - 0.81 to - 0.57), and - 1.04 (95% UI - 1.06 to - 1.01), respectively. Overall, the burden of IBD has shown a slow decline in recent years. In SDI stratification, regions with higher initial SDI (high-income North America and Central Europe) witnessed decreasing incidence and mortality rates with increasing SDI, while regions with lower initial SDI (South Asia, Oceania, and Latin America) experienced a rapid rise in incidence but a decrease in mortality with increasing SDI. Predictions using a Bayesian model showed lower new cases and deaths from 2020 to 2050 than reference values, while the slope of the predicted incidence-time curve closely paralleled that of the 2019 data. CONCLUSION Increasing cases, deaths, and DALYs highlight the sustained burden of IBD on public health. Developed countries have stabilized or declining incidence rates but face high prevalence and societal burden. Emerging and developing countries experience rising incidence. Understanding these changes aids policymakers in effectively addressing IBD challenges in different regions and economic contexts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia-Li Zhou
- School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361102, Fujian Province, China
| | - Jia-Chen Bao
- School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361102, Fujian Province, China
| | - Xu-Ying Liao
- The Third Clinical Medical College, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350004, Fujian, China
| | - Yi-Jia Chen
- Department of Gastroenterology, Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, 201 Hubin South Road, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China, 361004
| | - Lin-Wei Wang
- School of Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361102, Fujian Province, China
| | - Yan-Yun Fan
- Department of Gastroenterology, Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, 201 Hubin South Road, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China, 361004
| | - Qin-Yu Xu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, 201 Hubin South Road, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China, 361004
| | - Lan-Xiang Hao
- Department of Gastroenterology, Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, 201 Hubin South Road, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China, 361004
| | - Kun-Jian Li
- Department of Ultrasound, Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, 201 Hubin South Road, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China, 361004
| | - Ming-Xian Liang
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, 201 Hubin South Road, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China, 361004
| | - Tian-Hui Hu
- Anti Cancer Research Center of Xiamen University School of Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University, 201 Hubin South Road, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China, 361004
| | - Zheng-Jin Liu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, 201 Hubin South Road, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China, 361004
| | - Yi-Qun Hu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Zhongshan Hospital of Xiamen University, School of Medicine, Xiamen University, 201 Hubin South Road, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China, 361004.
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Zheng J, Lin H, Ling J, Huang J, Li D. The trends of disease burden due to high temperature in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and its prediction to 2030. Sci Rep 2023; 13:22238. [PMID: 38097708 PMCID: PMC10721800 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-49491-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2023] [Accepted: 12/08/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The risk of high-temperature-related diseases is increasing owing to global warming. This study aimed to assess the trend of disease burden caused by high temperatures in Mainland China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the trend of disease burden over the next 10 years. The latest data were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) for analysis, and the disease burden related to high temperature was described by mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and stratified by etiology, sex, and age. Statistical analyses were performed using the R software. In 2019, there were 13,907 deaths attributed to high temperatures in Mainland China, and this was 29.55% higher than the 10,735 deaths in 1990. Overall, the age-standardized mortality and DALYs attributed to high temperatures showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. We observed an etiological shift in high-temperature-related diseases. The age-standardized DALYs contribution attributed to high temperatures in 1990 was mainly from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNND) (21.81/100,000), followed by injury (18.30/100,000) and non-communicable diseases (10.40/100,000). In 2019, the largest contribution shifted to non-communicable diseases (10.07/100,000), followed by injuries (5.21/100,000), and CMNND (2.30/100,000). The disease burden attributed to high temperatures was higher in males than in females and increased with age. In 2030, the mortality rate and DALYs due to high temperatures are predicted to decrease further, and the largest contribution will come from chronic non-communicable diseases, the occurrence of which will remain at a high level over the next 10 years. The burden of disease due to high temperatures in Mainland China is still heavy, mainly due to population aging and an increase in non-communicable diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiaolong Zheng
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, The 900th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, No. 156 Northern Xi'er Huan Road, Fuzhou, 350025, China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, Fuzong Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Haiyan Lin
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, The 900th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, No. 156 Northern Xi'er Huan Road, Fuzhou, 350025, China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, Fuzong Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Jingyi Ling
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, The 900th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, No. 156 Northern Xi'er Huan Road, Fuzhou, 350025, China
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, Fuzong Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Jiaofeng Huang
- Department of Hepatology, Hepatology Research Institute, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350025, China
| | - Dongliang Li
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, The 900th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, No. 156 Northern Xi'er Huan Road, Fuzhou, 350025, China.
- Department of Hepatobiliary Disease, Fuzong Clinical Medical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China.
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Liu Y, Yang X, He Z, Li J, Li Y, Wu Y, Manyande A, Feng M, Xiang H. Spinal cord injury: global burden from 1990 to 2019 and projections up to 2030 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. Front Neurol 2023; 14:1304153. [PMID: 38116113 PMCID: PMC10729761 DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2023.1304153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 12/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Spinal cord injuries, often resulting from spine fractures, can lead to severe lifelong symptoms such as paraplegia and even mortality. Over the past few decades, there has been a concerning increase in the annual incidence and mortality rates of spinal cord injuries, which has also placed a growing financial strain on healthcare systems. This review aims to offer a comprehensive overview of spinal cord injuries by estimating their global incidence, prevalence, and the impact in terms of years lived with disability, using data obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Method In this study, we utilized data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, a widely recognized source for global health data. Our methodology involved estimating the global incidence and prevalence of spinal cord injuries while also assessing the impact on years lived with a disability. We analyzed this data comprehensively to identify patterns and trends and made predictions. Finding This research delved into the evolving trends in the global burden of spinal cord injuries, identified key risk factors, and examined variations in incidence and disability across different Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels and age groups. Briefly, in 2019, the global incidence and burden of YLDs of SCI significantly increased compared to 1990. While males had higher incidence rates compared to females. Falls were identified as the primary cause of SCI. Trend projections up to 2030 revealed a slight decrease in ASIR for males, an upward trend in age-specific incidence rates for both sexes and a similar pattern in age-standardized YLD rates. Additionally, our findings provided crucial groundwork for shaping future policies and healthcare initiatives, with the goal of mitigating the burden of spinal cord injuries, enhancing patient outcomes, and fortifying prevention efforts. Interpretation Understanding the global burden of spinal cord injuries is essential for designing effective healthcare policies and prevention strategies. With the alarming increase in prevalence rates and their significant impact on individuals and healthcare systems, this research contributes vital insights to guide future efforts in reducing the incidence of spinal cord injuries, improving the quality of life for affected individuals, and reducing the economic burden on healthcare systems worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanbo Liu
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Hubei Key Laboratory of Geriatric Anesthesia and Perioperative Brain Health, Wuhan Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Anesthesia, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Xuesong Yang
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Hubei Key Laboratory of Geriatric Anesthesia and Perioperative Brain Health, Wuhan Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Anesthesia, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Zhigang He
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Hubei Key Laboratory of Geriatric Anesthesia and Perioperative Brain Health, Wuhan Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Anesthesia, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Juan Li
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Hubei Key Laboratory of Geriatric Anesthesia and Perioperative Brain Health, Wuhan Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Anesthesia, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Yijing Li
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Hubei Key Laboratory of Geriatric Anesthesia and Perioperative Brain Health, Wuhan Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Anesthesia, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Yanqiong Wu
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Hubei Key Laboratory of Geriatric Anesthesia and Perioperative Brain Health, Wuhan Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Anesthesia, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Anne Manyande
- School of Human and Social Sciences, University of West London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Maohui Feng
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Clinical Medical Research Center of Peritoneal Cancer of Wuhan, Clinical Cancer Study Center of Hubei Provence, Hubei Key Laboratory of Tumor Biological Behaviors, Wuhan, China
| | - Hongbing Xiang
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Hubei Key Laboratory of Geriatric Anesthesia and Perioperative Brain Health, Wuhan Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Anesthesia, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
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Xu Q, Wang X, Bai Y, Zheng Y, Duan J, Du J, Wu X. Trends of non-melanoma skin cancer incidence in Hong Kong and projection up to 2030 based on changing demographics. Ann Med 2023; 55:146-154. [PMID: 36519234 PMCID: PMC9762823 DOI: 10.1080/07853890.2022.2154382] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess the trends in non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) incidence in Hong Kong from 1990 to 2019 and the associations of age, calendar period, and birth cohort, to make projections to 2030, and to examine the drivers of NMSC incidence. METHODS We assessed the age, calendar period, and birth cohort effects of NMSC incidence in Hong Kong between 1990 and 2019 using an age-period-cohort model. Using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations, we projected the incidence of NMSC in Hong Kong to 2030. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of NMSC increased from 6.7 per 100,000 population to 8.6 per 100,000 population in men and from 5.4 per 100,000 to 5.9 per 100,000 population in women, among the 19,568 patients in the study (9812 male patients [50.14%]). The annual net drift was 2.00% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-2.50%) for men and 1.53% (95% CI: 0.95-2.11%) for women. Local drifts increased for both sexes above the 35-39-year age group. The period and cohort risk of developing NMSC tended to rise but slowed gradually in the most recent period and post-1975 birth cohort. From 2019 to 2030, it is projected that the number of newly diagnosed NMSC cases in Hong Kong will increase from 564 to 829 in men and from 517 to 863 in women. Population aging, population growth, and epidemiologic changes contributed to the increase in incident NMSCs, with population aging being the most significant contributor. CONCLUSION The slowing of the period and cohort effects suggests that the rising incidence of NMSC is partly attributable to increased awareness and diagnosis. The increasing prevalence of NMSC among the elderly and an aging population will significantly impact the clinical workload associated with NMSC for the foreseeable future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qingqiang Xu
- Institute of Dermatology, Shaanxi Institution of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shaanxi Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiaoyan Wang
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Yan Bai
- School of Continuing Education, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Yan Zheng
- Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Junbo Duan
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Jianqiang Du
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiaoming Wu
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
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Tang S, Zi H, Tao H, Huang Q, Guo X, Deng T, Li F. Secular trends of morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in five Asian countries from 1990 to 2019 and their predictions to 2035. Thorac Cancer 2023; 14:3540-3548. [PMID: 37941298 PMCID: PMC10733153 DOI: 10.1111/1759-7714.15160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2023] [Revised: 10/29/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The rising burden of thyroid cancer (TC) is a public health problem in Asia. Predicting the future burden of TC in Asian countries is essential for disease prevention. METHODS Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 for five Asian countries. We applied Bayesian age-period-cohort models to predict morbidity and mortality to 2035 and calculated age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Furthermore, the estimated annual percentage change was calculated to evaluate the variation of ASIR and ASMR. RESULTS By 2035, predictions suggest that cases of TC will reach 75.56 × 103 in China, 70.22 × 103 in India, 15.78 × 103 in the Republic of Korea, 9.01 × 103 in Japan and 5.55 × 103 in Thailand, respectively. Except Japan, a significant upward trend of ASIR of TC will be observed in five Asian countries. The deaths from TC will increase in five countries and India will become the highest reaching 14.07 × 103 . The ASMR will rise to 0.83/100 000 in India and 1.06/100 000 in the Republic of Korea, while it will drop to 0.35/100 000 in China, 0.43/100 000 in Japan and 0.50/100 000 in Thailand. In further predictions projected by sex, the growth rate of ASIR is reported higher in males than in females among most countries. ASMR of male will exceed that of females in China and Thailand by 2035. CONCLUSION The disease burden caused by TC will further increase in five Asian countries, especially for men. It is necessary to develop more rational and timely disease prevention and manage strategies facing this disease trend.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shi‐Di Tang
- Center for Evidence‐Based and Translational MedicineZhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhanChina
| | - Hao Zi
- Center for Evidence‐Based and Translational MedicineZhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhanChina
| | - Hua Tao
- Department of Medical Social ServicesZhengzhou Second HospitalZhengzhouChina
| | - Qiao Huang
- Center for Evidence‐Based and Translational MedicineZhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhanChina
| | - Xing‐Pei Guo
- Department of General SurgeryZhengzhou Central Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
| | - Tong Deng
- Center for Evidence‐Based and Translational MedicineZhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhanChina
- Department of Thyroid and Breast SurgeryZhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhanChina
| | - Fei Li
- Center for Evidence‐Based and Translational MedicineZhongnan Hospital of Wuhan UniversityWuhanChina
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Zhang J, Tong H, Jiang L, Zhang Y, Hu J. Trends and disparities in China's cardiovascular disease burden from 1990 to 2019. Nutr Metab Cardiovasc Dis 2023; 33:2344-2354. [PMID: 37596135 DOI: 10.1016/j.numecd.2023.07.039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2023] [Revised: 06/30/2023] [Accepted: 07/21/2023] [Indexed: 08/20/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS In order to find the exact strategies in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), it is necessary to assess their risk factors systematically. Here, we used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) to review the long-term trends and epidemiological characteristics among Chinese. METHODS AND RESULTS We comprehensively analyzed the burden of CVD for the Chinese population using GBD 2019, including prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Then, we analyzed trends over time, and predicted mortality and morbidity, using joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort (APC) model, and Bayesian APC approach. Finally, we analyzed the attributable burden of CVD. In 2019, the prevalence of CVD in China was 120 million, representing a 140.02% increase since 1990. The number of DALYs attributed to CVD increased by 52.56% compared to 1990. Joinpoint showed a fluctuating incidence downward, while mortality significantly declined. The APC fitting results indicated that recent generations have a higher prevalence than the past, and the prevalence has increased among individuals of the same age group. The BAPC predicted that CVD's prevalence and mortality in the Chinese would stabilize and decline between 2020 and 2030, with a significant decline among males. The main CVD-attributable burdens in 2019 were metabolic risks, especially high blood pressure. CONCLUSION Given China's large and rapidly aging population, the burden of CVD is a major concern. Practical strategies to prevent and manage CVD are urgently needed to address this public health challenge.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiale Zhang
- Institute of Basic Theory for Chinese Medicine, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China.
| | - Hongxuan Tong
- Institute of Basic Theory for Chinese Medicine, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China.
| | - Lijie Jiang
- Institute of Basic Theory for Chinese Medicine, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China.
| | - Yiwen Zhang
- Institute of Basic Theory for Chinese Medicine, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China.
| | - Jingqing Hu
- Institute of Basic Theory for Chinese Medicine, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China.
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Tang X, Peng J, Huang S, Xu H, Wang P, Jiang J, Zhang W, Shi X, Shi L, Zhong X, Lü M. Global burden of early-onset colorectal cancer among people aged 40-49 years from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol 2023; 149:16537-16550. [PMID: 37712957 DOI: 10.1007/s00432-023-05395-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Accepted: 09/02/2023] [Indexed: 09/16/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE To explore the disease burden of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) in individuals aged 40-49 years and provide baseline evidence for routine recommended age adjustment for CRC screening and other clinical decision-making. METHODS We collected data stratified by sex, risk factors, and socio-demographic index (SDI) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data Resources. Trends in disease burden were analyzed by estimated annual percentage change. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted the burden over the following 10 years. RESULTS In 2019, the global rates of incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of EO-CRC in people aged 40-44 years were 11.48 (95% uncertainty interval: 10.50-12.59), 4.35 (4.01-4.70), 72.63 (66.48-79.52), 209.82 (193.55-226.59) per 100,000 population. For people aged 45-49 years, the rates of these four estimates were 19.63 (17.97-21.54), 7.76 (7.16-8.41), 121.73 (110.99-133.84), and 335.83 (310.14-362.91), respectively. The incidence and prevalence rates for both age groups increased while the mortality and DALY rates remained stable from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, high-income North America had the highest incidence and prevalence rates. A low milk diet accounted for the largest proportion of global DALYs in EO-CRC, and there was a tendency for the DALY rate first to increase and then decrease with increasing SDI. The incidence and mortality rates were predicted to increase in the next 10 years. CONCLUSION The current and future burden of EO-CRC among people aged 40-49 years is heavy. Substantial variation exists in disease burden across regions and countries. Urgent screening actions and policies are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaowei Tang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, No. 28 Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100853, China.
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China.
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China.
| | - Jieyu Peng
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Shu Huang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui County People' Hospital, Huaian, China
- Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui People' Hospital of Kangda College Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, China
| | - Huan Xu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Ping Wang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Jiao Jiang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Wei Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Xiaomin Shi
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Lei Shi
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Xiaolin Zhong
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Muhan Lü
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
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Xie C, Huang X, Lin D, Huang X, Lin S, Luo S, Xu X, Weng X. Long-term trend of future Cancer onset: A model-based prediction of Cancer incidence and onset age by region and gender. Prev Med 2023; 177:107775. [PMID: 37951546 DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107775] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2023] [Revised: 10/26/2023] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 11/14/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study provided estimates of cancer incidence rate and onset age by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions and gender from 2020 to 2040, aiming to clarify the long-term patterns of future cancer onset. METHOD Based on the incidence data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study, we constructed the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to calculate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of cancers from 2020 to 2040. Using the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to quantify the trends of ASIR and the onset age. In addition, the incidences in 2019 were fixed to distinguish the age onset changes caused by demographic and incidence from 2020 to 2040. RESULTS Globally, two-thirds of cancers have escalating trends of incidence rate, and the proportion of cancer weighted average onset age above 60 years old will grow from 62% to 76% between 2020 and 2040. In five SDI regions, the proportion of weighted average onset age above 60 years old will rise above 10% in the next 20 years and increase sequentially with the rise of the SDI level. Preclude sex-specific cancers, the onset age is younger in men than in women in 2040. Rule out the influence of changing demographics, half of cancer's morbidity has a youth-oriented tendency globally, which is concentrated in hormone-related and digestive tract cancer. CONCLUSION From 2020 to 2040, the incidence and onset age changes demonstrate marked geographic and gender variations in the cancer spectrum. Cancer incidence and onset age are predicted to continuously increase worldwide in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chen Xie
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China
| | - Xiaoting Huang
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China
| | - Dong Lin
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China
| | - Xiaojia Huang
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China
| | - Shen Lin
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China
| | - Shaohong Luo
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China
| | - Xiongwei Xu
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China..
| | - Xiuhua Weng
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China..
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Ji X, Chen J, Ye J, Xu S, Lin B, Hou K. Epidemiological Analysis of Global and Regional Lung Cancer Mortality: Based on 30-Year Data Analysis of Global Burden Disease Database. Healthcare (Basel) 2023; 11:2920. [PMID: 37998412 PMCID: PMC10671048 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare11222920] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2023] [Revised: 10/30/2023] [Accepted: 11/03/2023] [Indexed: 11/25/2023] Open
Abstract
The objective of this study was to understand dynamic global and regional lung cancer fatality trends and provide a foundation for effective global lung cancer prevention and treatment strategies. Data from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden Disease (GBD) database and statistical analysis was conducted using Excel 2010. Standardization was based on the GBD's world population structure, and the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) was calculated using Joinpoint 4.8.0.1 software. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC) predicted global lung cancer mortality from 2020 to 2030. In 2019, worldwide lung cancer deaths reached 2,042,600, a 91.75% increase from 1990 (1,065,100). The standardized age-specific death rate in 2019 was 25.18 per 100,000. Males had a rate of 37.38 while females had 14.99. Men saw a decreasing trend while women experienced an increase. High- and medium-high-SDI regions had declining rates (-0.3 and -0.8 AAPCs) whereas middle-, low-, and low-middle-SDI regions had increased mortality rates (AAPC = 0.1, AAPC = 0.37, AAPC = 0.13). Several regions, including Oceania, South Asia, East Asia, Western Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, witnessed rising global lung cancer mortality rates (p < 0.01). The global standardized mortality rate for lung cancer is expected to decrease from 2020 to 2030, but predictions indicate increasing female mortality and decreasing male mortality. Despite overall declines, rising female mortality remains a concern. Effective measures are essential to reduce mortality rates and improve patients' quality of life in the global fight against lung cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoxia Ji
- Medical College, Shantou University, Shantou 515031, China; (X.J.); (J.Y.); (S.X.)
| | - Jingxian Chen
- School of Public Health, Shantou University, Shantou 515063, China;
| | - Junjun Ye
- Medical College, Shantou University, Shantou 515031, China; (X.J.); (J.Y.); (S.X.)
| | - Shuochun Xu
- Medical College, Shantou University, Shantou 515031, China; (X.J.); (J.Y.); (S.X.)
| | - Benwei Lin
- School of Physiology, Pharmacology and Neuroscience, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1QU, UK;
| | - Kaijian Hou
- School of Public Health, Shantou University, Shantou 515063, China;
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Ren K, Liu C, He Z, Wu P, Zhang J, Yang R, Cui T, Song K, Cheng D, He K, Yu J. Pancreatic Cancer and its Attributable Risk Factors in East Asia, Now and Future. Oncologist 2023; 28:e995-e1004. [PMID: 37265056 PMCID: PMC10628587 DOI: 10.1093/oncolo/oyad147] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2022] [Accepted: 01/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The disease burden of pancreatic cancer in East Asia is at a high level, but the epidemiological characteristics of pancreatic cancer in the region have not been systematically studied. METHOD Joinpoint analysis was used to identify average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) in mortality. Age-period-cohort models were used to analyze age-period cohort effects across countries. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was used to project the burden of disease for 2020-2030. RESULTS Pancreatic cancer mortality in males in Japan (2012-2019, APC = -0.97) and Korea (2012-2019, APC = -0.91) has shown a decreasing trend since 2012 (P < .05). However, China (2016-2019, APC = 3.21), Mongolia (2015-2.019, APC = 2.37), and North Korea (2012-2019, APC = 0.47) showed a significant increase in pancreatic cancer in both genders (P < .05). Risk factors for pancreatic cancer in East Asia remained largely stable between 2010 and 2019. Mortality of pancreatic cancer due to smoking began to decline in areas with high socio-demographic index (SDI), and mortality of pancreatic cancer due to high body mass index and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. The age-standardized mortality for pancreatic cancer in Chinese males is expected to exceed that of Japan and South Korea by 2030, but the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in Japan and South Korea remains at extremely high levels. CONCLUSION Economically developed countries are beginning to show a decreasing trend in the burden of pancreatic cancer disease, and developing countries are experiencing a rapid increase in the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of pancreatic cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuiwu Ren
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Chunlong Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ziqiang He
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Bengbu Medical College, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Panpan Wu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Jian Zhang
- Department of Neurosurgery, Seventh Clinical College of China Medical University, People’s Republic of China
| | - Rui Yang
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Tao Cui
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Kun Song
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Di Cheng
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Kui He
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Medical School, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, People’s Republic of China
| | - Jiangtao Yu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
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Rosenberg PS, Miranda-Filho A, Whiteman DC. Comparative age-period-cohort analysis. BMC Med Res Methodol 2023; 23:238. [PMID: 37853346 PMCID: PMC10585891 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-023-02039-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2023] [Accepted: 09/20/2023] [Indexed: 10/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cancer surveillance researchers analyze incidence or mortality rates jointly indexed by age group and calendar period using age-period-cohort models. Many studies consider age- and period-specific rates in two or more strata defined by sex, race/ethnicity, etc. A comprehensive characterization of trends and patterns within each stratum can be obtained using age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions (EF). However, currently available approaches for joint analysis and synthesis of EF are limited. METHODS We develop a new method called Comparative Age-Period-Cohort Analysis to quantify similarities and differences of EF across strata. Comparative Analysis identifies whether the stratum-specific hazard rates are proportional by age, period, or cohort. RESULTS Proportionality imposes natural constraints on the EF that can be exploited to gain efficiency and simplify the interpretation of the data. Comparative Analysis can also identify differences or diversity in proportional relationships between subsets of strata ("pattern heterogeneity"). We present three examples using cancer incidence from the United States Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program: non-malignant meningioma by sex; multiple myeloma among men stratified by race/ethnicity; and in situ melanoma by anatomic site among white women. CONCLUSIONS For studies of cancer rates with from two through to around 10 strata, which covers many outstanding questions in cancer surveillance research, our new method provides a comprehensive, coherent, and reproducible approach for joint analysis and synthesis of age-period-cohort estimable functions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip S Rosenberg
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Biostatistics Branch, National Cancer Institute, NCI Shady Grove, Room 7E-130, 9609 Medical Center Drive, Bethesda, MD, 20892, USA.
| | - Adalberto Miranda-Filho
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Biostatistics Branch, National Cancer Institute, NCI Shady Grove, Room 7E-130, 9609 Medical Center Drive, Bethesda, MD, 20892, USA
| | - David C Whiteman
- Cancer Control Group, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
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Zhao Y, Zhuang Z, Yang L, He D. Age-period-cohort analysis and projection of cancer mortality in Hong Kong, 1998-2030. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e072751. [PMID: 37821140 PMCID: PMC10583025 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 09/06/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To explore the relationship between immigration groups and cancer mortality, this study aimed to explore age, period, birth cohort effects and effects across genders and immigration groups on mortality rates of lung, pancreatic, colon, liver, prostate and stomach cancers and their projections. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Death registry data in Hong Kong between 1998 and 2021, which were stratified by age, sex and immigration status. Immigration status was classified into three groups: locals born in Hong Kong, long-stay immigrants and short-stay immigrants. METHODS Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was used to examine age, period, and birth cohort effects for genders and immigration groups from 1998 to 2021. Bayesian APC models were applied to predict the mortality rates from 2022 to 2030. RESULTS Short-stay immigrants revealed pronounced fluctuations of mortality rates by age and of relative risks by cohort and period effects for six types of cancers than those of long-stay immigrants and locals. Immigrants for each type of cancer and gender will be at a higher mortality risk than locals. After 2021, decreasing trends (p<0.05) or plateau (p>0.05) of forecasting mortality rates of cancers occur for all immigration groups, except for increasing trends for short-stay male immigrants with colon cancer (p<0.05, Avg+0.30 deaths/100 000 per annum from 15.47 to 18.50 deaths/100 000) and long-stay male immigrants with pancreatic cancer (p<0.05, Avg+0.72 deaths/100 000 per annum from 16.30 to 23.49 deaths/100 000). CONCLUSIONS Findings underscore the effect of gender and immigration status in Hong Kong on mortality risks of cancers that immigrants for each type of cancer and gender will be at a higher mortality risk than locals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanji Zhao
- Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Zian Zhuang
- Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- Department of Biostatistics, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Lin Yang
- School of Nursing, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Daihai He
- Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- Research Institute for Future Food, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
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Ma T, Wei X, Wu X, Du J. Trends and future projections of liver cancer incidence in Hong Kong: a population-based study. Arch Public Health 2023; 81:179. [PMID: 37789405 PMCID: PMC10548600 DOI: 10.1186/s13690-023-01191-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 09/19/2023] [Indexed: 10/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Liver cancer remains a significant burden in Hong Kong. We sought to examine trends in liver cancer incidence using 30 years of cancer registry data in Hong Kong. Additionally, we aimed to assess the impact of age, period and birth cohort on liver cancer incidence, provided projections for liver cancer incidence until 2030, and examined the drivers of liver cancer incidence. METHODS Data on liver cancer incidence were collected from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (HKCaR). We assessed age, period, and birth cohort effects using age-period-cohort (APC) models. We employed Bayesian APC analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations to project the future burden of liver cancer in Hong Kong. Furthermore, we attributed the changes in new liver cancer cases to population growth, population ageing, and epidemiological changes. RESULTS The study included a total of 51,333 individuals, of whom 39,287 (76.53%) were male. From 1991 to 2020, the age-standardized liver cancer incidence rate in Hong Kong continued declining, while the number of new cases increased significantly, especially among males. The net drift, representing the overall annual percentage change of the age-adjusted rate, was - 3.06% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.31% to -2.80%) for males and - 3.85% (95% CI: -4.61% to -3.09%) for females. Local drift, which estimates the annual percentage change over time specific to age group, decreased in all age groups for both sexes, with a more pronounced decrease in younger age groups. The period and cohort risk of developing liver cancer also showed decreasing trends for both sexes. The study projected a decline in liver cancer cases for males but an increase for females in Hong Kong, with an estimated 1,083 cases in males and 710 cases in females by 2030. Demographic decomposition analysis revealed that while population growth and ageing were the main drivers of increased liver cancer cases, epidemiologic shifts mostly offset these factors. CONCLUSION The period and cohort risk of developing liver cancer in Hong Kong declined due to epidemiological changes. Although the age-standardized incidence rates of liver cancer have also declined, demographic and epidemiological factors have led to lower case expectations in males but a likely increase in females. Further research and epidemiological assessment of the disease are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tianyou Ma
- School of Public Health, Laboratory for Disease Prevention and Control and Health Promotion of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiaohui Wei
- Third Department of Medical Oncology, Shaanxi Provincial Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Medical College of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiaoming Wu
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, 710049, Shaanxi, China
| | - Jianqiang Du
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, 710049, Shaanxi, China.
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Trächsel B, Rousson V, Bulliard JL, Locatelli I. Comparison of statistical models to predict age-standardized cancer incidence in Switzerland. Biom J 2023; 65:e2200046. [PMID: 37078835 DOI: 10.1002/bimj.202200046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2022] [Revised: 02/07/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2023] [Indexed: 04/21/2023]
Abstract
This study compares the performance of statistical methods for predicting age-standardized cancer incidence, including Poisson generalized linear models, age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series, and simple linear models. The methods are evaluated via leave-future-out cross-validation, and performance is assessed using the normalized root mean square error, interval score, and coverage of prediction intervals. Methods were applied to cancer incidence from the three Swiss cancer registries of Geneva, Neuchatel, and Vaud combined, considering the five most frequent cancer sites: breast, colorectal, lung, prostate, and skin melanoma and bringing all other sites together in a final group. Best overall performance was achieved by ARIMA models, followed by linear regression models. Prediction methods based on model selection using the Akaike information criterion resulted in overfitting. The widely used APC and BAPC models were found to be suboptimal for prediction, particularly in the case of a trend reversal in incidence, as it was observed for prostate cancer. In general, we do not recommend predicting cancer incidence for periods far into the future but rather updating predictions regularly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bastien Trächsel
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Valentin Rousson
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Jean-Luc Bulliard
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Isabella Locatelli
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
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Wang C, Wu Z, Lei L, Dong X, Cao W, Luo Z, Zheng Y, Wang F, Xu Y, Zhao L, Shi J, Ren J, Li J, Zhang Y, Chen W, Li N. Geographic disparities in trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 and a projection to 2030 across income-classified countries and territories. J Glob Health 2023; 13:04108. [PMID: 37766638 PMCID: PMC10540248 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.13.04108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The rising incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) has generated growing concern globally; yet there are no studies examining whether this incidence was followed by a rise in related mortality. We aimed to comprehensively quantify current trends and future projections of TC incidence and mortality, and to explore the association between the TC burden and socioeconomic inequality in different income strata. Methods We obtained incidence and mortality data on TC and population from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and the United Nations' World Population Prospects 2022. We applied an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the overall annual percentage change (net drift) and age, period, and cohort effects from 1990 to 2019, and also constructed a Bayesian APC model to predict the TC burden through 2030. Results Over a third of global TC cases belonged to the high-income group. From 1990 to 2019, net drifts of TC incidence were >0 in all income groups, while a modest reduction (net drift <0) in mortality was observed in most income groups, except for the lower-middle-income group. Unfavourable age, period, and cohort effects were most notable in Vietnam, China, and Korea. The age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) is predicted to increase whereas the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) is expected to decrease globally between 2020 and 2030, with geographic heterogeneity being detected across income groups. We observed a positive correlation between ASIR and universal health coverage index and health worker density, but a negative one between ASMR and the two indicators, primarily in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Conclusions Opposite patterns in incidence and mortality of TC raise concerns about overdiagnosis, particularly in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Discrepancies in the distribution of health service accessibility, including diagnostic techniques and therapeutic care, should be addressed by narrowing health inequalities in the TC burden across countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chenran Wang
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Zheng Wu
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Lin Lei
- Department of Cancer Prevention and Control, Shenzhen Center for Chronic Disease Control, Shenzhen, China
| | - Xuesi Dong
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Wei Cao
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Zilin Luo
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yadi Zheng
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Fei Wang
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yongjie Xu
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Liang Zhao
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Jufang Shi
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Jiansong Ren
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Jibin Li
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yawei Zhang
- Department of Cancer Prevention and Control, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Wanqing Chen
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Ni Li
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Personalized Medicine, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
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Guo HX, Wang Q, Wang C, Yin QC, Huo HZ, Yin BH. Secular Trends in Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Attributable to Dietary Carcinogens From 1990 to 2019 and Projections Until 2044 in China: Population-Based Study. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2023; 9:e48449. [PMID: 37560940 PMCID: PMC10556999 DOI: 10.2196/48449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2023] [Revised: 06/11/2023] [Accepted: 08/10/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Little is known about trends in or projections of the disease burden of dietary gastric and esophageal cancer (GEC) in China. OBJECTIVE We aim to report GEC deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, predict them through 2044, and decompose changes in terms of population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes. METHODS We retrieved dietary GEC data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) online database and used joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models to analyze trends in dietary GEC deaths and DALYs from 1990 to 2019 in China. We used a Bayesian age period cohort model of integrated nested Laplace approximations to predict the disease burden of GEC through 2044 and obtained the estimated population of China from 2020 to 2050 from the Global Health Data Exchange website. Finally, we applied a recently developed decomposition method to attribute changes between 2019 and 2044 to population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes. RESULTS The summary exposure values and age-standardized rates decreased significantly from 1990 to 1999, with percentage changes of -0.06% (95% CI -0.11% to -0.02%) and -0.05% (95% CI -0.1% to -0.02%), respectively. From 1990 to 2019, for dietary esophageal cancer, the percentage change in age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was -0.79% (95% CI -0.93% to -0.58%) and the percentage change in age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) was -0.81% (95% CI -0.94% to -0.61%); these were significant decreases. For dietary stomach cancer, significant decreases were also observed for the percentage change in ASMR (-0.43%, 95% CI -0.55% to -0.31%) and the percentage change in ASDR (-0.47%, 95% CI -0.58% to -0.35%). In addition, data from both the joinpoint regression and annual percentage change analyses demonstrated significantly decreasing trends for the annual percentage change in ASMR and ASDR for GEC attributable to dietary carcinogens. The overall annual percentage change (net drift) was -5.95% (95% CI -6.25% to -5.65%) for dietary esophageal cancer mortality and -1.97% (95% CI -2.11% to -1.83%) for dietary stomach cancer mortality. Lastly, in 2044, dietary esophageal cancer deaths and DALYs were predicted to increase by 192.62% and 170.28%, respectively, due to age structure (121.58% and 83.29%), mortality change (76.81% and 92.43%), and population size (-5.77% and -5.44%). In addition, dietary stomach cancer deaths and DALYs were predicted to increase by 118.1% and 54.08%, with age structure, mortality rate change, and population size accounting for 96.71% and 53.99%, 26.17% and 3.97%, and -4.78% and -3.88% of the change, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Although the predicted age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs due to dietary GEC show downward trends, the absolute numbers are still predicted to increase in the next 25 years due to rapid population aging in China.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Qi Wang
- Handan Central Hospital, Handan, China
| | - Can Wang
- Handan Central Hospital, Handan, China
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Zhu W, Liu J, Li Y, Shi Z, Wei S. Global, regional, and national trends in mesothelioma burden from 1990 to 2019 and the predictions for the next two decades. SSM Popul Health 2023; 23:101441. [PMID: 37334331 PMCID: PMC10272494 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2023.101441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 05/25/2023] [Accepted: 05/28/2023] [Indexed: 06/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives We aimed to analyze the secular trends in mesothelioma burden, the effect of age, period, and birth cohort, and project the global burden over time. Material and methods Based on the mesothelioma incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) data from 1990 to 2019 in Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC), calculated from joinpoint regression model, was used to describe the burden trends. An age-period-cohort model was utilized to disentangle age, period, and birth cohort effects on mesothelioma incidence and mortality trends. The mesothelioma burden was projected by the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Results Globally, there were the significant declines in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) (AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI: -0.6,-0.3, P < 0.001), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (AAPC = -0.3, 95%CI: -0.4,-0.2, P < 0.001), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) (AAPC = -0.5, 95%CI: -0.6,-0.4, P < 0.001) of mesothelioma overall 30 years. For regions, Central Europe presented the most distinct increases and the most substantial decrease was observed in Andean Latin America on all ASRs (age-standardized rates) from 1990 to 2019. At national level, the largest annualized growth for full-range trends of incidence, mortality, and DALYs was in Georgia. Conversely, the fastest descent of all ASRs was observed in Peru. The ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR in 2039 predicted 0.33, 0.27, and 6.90 per 100,000, respectively. Conclusions The global burden of mesothelioma declined over the past 30 years, with variability across regions and countries/territories, and this trend will continue in the future.
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Zhang J, Lu Y, Zhang N, Yu Z, Li H, He R, Mao Y, Zhu B. Global burden of female breast cancer and its association with socioeconomic development status, 1990-2044. Cancer Rep (Hoboken) 2023; 6 Suppl 1:e1827. [PMID: 37095062 PMCID: PMC10440843 DOI: 10.1002/cnr2.1827] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2023] [Revised: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/13/2023] [Indexed: 04/26/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Breast cancer is a widespread disease in women worldwide. AIM We aimed to explore the global epidemiological trends of female breast cancer (FBC) between 1990 and 2044. METHODS AND RESULTS Disease burden, population, and socio-demographic index (SDI) data were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) database. We analyzed temporal trends, age differences, risk factors, and geographic patterns of FBC disease burden globally and explored the association between age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of FBC and SDI. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was also performed to predict the changes in FBC incidence worldwide from 2020 to 2044. First, the global ASIR of FBC increased by 14.31% from 1990 to 2019 (95% Uncertainty Interval 4.75% to 23.98%). The death rate presented a falling trend. Second, alcohol use is the most-highlighted risk factor for FBC in some high-income regions such as Europe. A high fasting plasma glucose levels is the most prominent risk factor for FBC in Latin America and Africa. Third, the ASIR of the FBC increases with the SDI. Fourth, the incidence is expected to increase faster among women aged 35-60 years and fastest for those aged 50-54 years from 2020 to 2044. Countries with a high incidence of FBC that is expected to increase significantly include Barbados, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Monaco, Lebanon, Togo, and Uganda. CONCLUSION The disease burden of FBC varies worldwide; the findings suggest attaching importance to the control of middle and low-middle SDI regions. Public health as well as cancer prevention experts should pay more attention to regions and populations at an increased risk of developing FBC, focusing on their prevention and rehabilitation while conducting further epidemiological studies to investigate the risk factors of their increase.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingya Zhang
- School of Public Policy and AdministrationXi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'anChina
| | - Yongbo Lu
- School of Public Policy and AdministrationXi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'anChina
| | - Ning Zhang
- School of Public Policy and AdministrationXi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'anChina
| | - Zeru Yu
- School of Public Policy and AdministrationXi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'anChina
| | - Haorao Li
- School of Public Policy and AdministrationXi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'anChina
| | - Rongxin He
- Vanke School of Public HealthTsinghua UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Ying Mao
- School of Public Policy and AdministrationXi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'anChina
| | - Bin Zhu
- School of Public Health and Emergency ManagementSouthern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhenGuangdongChina
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Wang X, Sun H, Li L, Gan Z, Wu X, Du J. Changing patterns of nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence in Hong Kong: a 30-year analysis and future projections. BMC Cancer 2023; 23:761. [PMID: 37587425 PMCID: PMC10429092 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-023-11296-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2023] [Accepted: 08/13/2023] [Indexed: 08/18/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study aims to evaluate the relationship between age, period, and birth cohort with the incidence trends of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC) in Hong Kong, make projections through 2030 and parse the drivers of the incidence. METHODS Using data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry, we used an age-period-cohort model to uniquely estimate age, period, and cohort effects on NPC incidence trends and make projections. We further assessed the drivers of NPC incidence using a validated decomposition algorithm. RESULTS From 1991 to 2020, crude and age-standardized incidence rates of NPC decreased significantly. The net drifts showed significant downward trends for both sexes, and local drift declined in all age groups. Period and cohort rate ratios revealed monotonic declining patterns for both sexes. Projections suggested that NPC incidence will continue to decline. Population decomposition showed that while population growth and ageing have led to an increase in NPC cases, epidemiologic changes offset these increases, resulting in an encouraging downward trend in the incidence and new NPC cases in Hong Kong. CONCLUSIONS The period and cohort risk of NPC in Hong Kong decreased, and epidemiologic changes offset the contribution of demographic factors, resulting in a continued decline in NPC incidence and cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoyan Wang
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, China
| | - Haifeng Sun
- Third Department of Medical Oncology, Shaanxi Provincial Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Medical College of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Linchang Li
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Second Clinical School of Medicine, Shaanxi, University of Chinese Medicine, Xianyang, Shaanxi, China
| | - Zhenhai Gan
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, China
| | - Xiaoming Wu
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, China
| | - Jianqiang Du
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, China.
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Zeng Q, Jiang D. Global trends of interstitial lung diseases from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort study based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, and projections until 2030. Front Med (Lausanne) 2023; 10:1141372. [PMID: 37554509 PMCID: PMC10404716 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2023.1141372] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Accepted: 06/19/2023] [Indexed: 08/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) are indispensable components of chronic respiratory diseases and global health challenges. We aimed to explore the global long-term changes in the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ILDs; investigate the independent effect of age, period, and cohort; and project the disease burden over the next decade. METHODS Data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database 2019. The joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC). An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was employed to measure the independent effect of age, period, and cohort. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to project the global epidemiological trends until 2030. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis (ILD) slightly increased from 52.66 per 100,000 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 44.49 to 61.07] to 57.62 per 100,000 (95% UI 49.42 to 65.67), from 1.76 per 100,000 (95% UI 1.41 to 2.22) to 2.17 per 100,000 (95% UI 1.5 to 2.62), and from 41.57 per 100,000 (95% UI 33.93 to 51.92) to 46.45 per 100,000 (95% UI 35.12 to 54.98), whereas the ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR of pneumoconiosis decreased. High social-demographic index (SDI) regions possessed the highest ASPR, whereas low-middle SDI regions had the highest ASMR and ASDR, followed by low-SDI regions in ILD. Middle-SDI regions reported the highest ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR in pneumoconiosis. The age effect showed that the rate ratio (RR) was high in older adults. Period effect indicated that the RR of prevalence increased over time, whereas the RR of mortality and DALYs decreased in men but increased in women. The cohort effect exhibited that the more recent birth cohort had a higher RR than the previous cohort in prevalence. We projected that ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR would stabilize with little variation over the next decade. CONCLUSION The global burden of ILDs remains relatively severe, especially among older adults, in low- and middle-SDI regions. Effective measurements are expected to improve this situation.
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Feng J, Xu L, Chen Y, Lin R, Li H, He H. Trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years. J Ovarian Res 2023; 16:139. [PMID: 37452315 PMCID: PMC10347789 DOI: 10.1186/s13048-023-01233-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2023] [Accepted: 07/07/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The specific long-term trend in ovarian cancer (OC) rates in China has been rarely investigated. We aimed to estimate the temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 in OC and predict the next 30-year levels. Data on the incidence, mortality rates, and the number of new cases and deaths cases due to OC in the China cohort from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates were evaluated by joinpoint regression models. The incidence and mortality rates and the estimated number of cases from 2020 to 2049 were predicted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. RESULTS Consecutive increasing trends in age-standardized incidence (average annual percent change [AAPC] = 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90-2.16; p < 0.001) and mortality (AAPC = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.38-1.78; p < 0.001) rates in OC were observed from 1990-2019 in China. Theoretically, both the estimated age-standardized (per 100,000 women) incidence (from 4.77 in 2019 to 8.95 in 2049) and mortality (from 2.88 in 2019 to 4.03 in 2049) rates will continue to increase substantially in the coming 30 years. And the estimated number of new cases of, and deaths from OC will increase by more than 3 times between 2019 and 2049. CONCLUSIONS The disease burden of OC in incidence and mortality has been increasing in China over the past 30 years and will be predicted to increase continuously in the coming three decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianyang Feng
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Obstetric Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510000, China
| | - Lijiang Xu
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First People's Hospital of Foshan, Foshan, 528000, China
| | - Yangping Chen
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First People's Hospital of Foshan, Foshan, 528000, China
| | - Rongjin Lin
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Obstetric Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510000, China
| | - Haoxian Li
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Obstetric Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510000, China
| | - Hong He
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Obstetric Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510000, China.
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Lai X, Li C, Yang Y, Niu M, Yang Y, Gu S, Hou W, Chen L, Zhu Y. Global estimates of rehabilitation needs and disease burden in tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2045 based on the global burden of disease study 2019. Front Oncol 2023; 13:1152209. [PMID: 37456232 PMCID: PMC10344363 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1152209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2023] [Accepted: 06/06/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The global cancer burden is substantial and spiraling. Although rehabilitation specialists could offer assistance, oncologic rehabilitation is still underutilized and not a routine part of clinical oncology guidelines worldwide. Global investigations of disease prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer are valuable for facilitating clinical practice improvement and health resource management. The objective of this study is to report the global estimates of rehabilitation needs and disease burden of TBL cancers from 1990 to 2019 and provide predictions for 2045. Methods To estimate the need for rehabilitation, the data used from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to calculate the prevalence, YLDs, and the attributable risk factors of TBL cancer. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model were established to forecast the future health burden. All analyses were done at the global level and then some in the aggregation with the seven World Bank regions. All the data were analyzed by R software (x64 version 4.2.1) and Microsoft Excel (version 2019). Results Globally in 2019, 3,212,307 cases of TBL cancer (95% UI 2,937,037-3,488,346) could have benefitted from rehabilitation, contributing to 544,215 (95% UI 396,134-700,099) YLDs. Over the past 30 years, the age-standardized rate (ASR) of prevalence (EAPC = 0.51) and YLDs (EAPC = 0.03) increased. Throughout this period, the global prevalence and YLDs counts were greater in males than females. The ASR of prevalence and YLDs are projected to show a slight downward trend by 2045 on the global scale, the overall prevalence and YLDs due to TBL cancer are likely to increase further, but all indicators show a growing trend in females. Conclusion TBL cancer remains one of the major public health issues globally. According to the forecasted results, the burden of YLDs due to TBL cancer will continue to rise, and the increment is higher in females than males. A rising number of patients worldwide will benefit from rehabilitation services in the future to achieve precise control and management throughout the TBL cancer patient lifecycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xigui Lai
- Department of Musculoskeletal Pain Rehabilitation, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
- School of Exercise and Health, Shanghai University of Sport, Shanghai, China
| | - Conghui Li
- Department of Musculoskeletal Pain Rehabilitation, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
- Academy of Medical Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
| | - Yao Yang
- Department of Musculoskeletal Pain Rehabilitation, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
- Academy of Medical Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
| | - Mingyuan Niu
- Department of Computer Science, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand
| | - Yujie Yang
- School of Rehabilitation Sciences and Engineering, University of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Shanshan Gu
- Department of Physical Therapy, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Weiqian Hou
- Department of Musculoskeletal Pain Rehabilitation, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
- Academy of Medical Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
| | - Lili Chen
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Hainan Cancer Hospital, Haikou, Hainan, China
| | - Yi Zhu
- Department of Musculoskeletal Pain Rehabilitation, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
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Yang F, Sun D, Xia C, Li H, Cao M, Yan X, He S, Zhang S, Chen W. Global trajectories of liver cancer burden from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2035. Chin Med J (Engl) 2023; 136:1413-1421. [PMID: 37114647 PMCID: PMC10278715 DOI: 10.1097/cm9.0000000000002703] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Indexed: 04/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Large disparities exist in liver cancer burden trends across countries but are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the global trajectories of liver cancer burden, explore the driving forces, and predict future trends. METHODS Data on the liver cancer burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trajectories were defined using growth mixture models. Five major risk factors contributing to changes in the ASIR or ASMR and socioeconomic determinants were explored using the identified trajectories. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends through 2035. RESULTS Three trajectories of liver cancer burden were identified: increasing, stable, and decreasing groups. Almost half of the American countries were classified in the decreasing group (48.6% for ASIR and ASMR), and the increasing group was the most common in the European region (ASIR, 49.1%; ASMR, 37.7%). In the decreasing group, the decrease of liver cancer due to hepatitis B contributed 63.4% and 60.4% of the total decreases in ASIR and ASMR, respectively. The increase of liver cancer due to alcohol use, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B contributed the most to the increase in the increasing group (30.8%, 31.1%, and 24.2% for ASIR; 33.7%, 30.2%, and 22.2% for ASMR, respectively). The increasing group was associated with a higher sociodemographic index, gross domestic product per capita, health expenditure per capita, and universal health coverage (all P <0.05). Significant variations in disease burden are predicted to continue through 2035, with a disproportionate burden in the decreasing group. CONCLUSION Global disparities were observed in liver cancer burden trajectories. Hepatitis B, alcohol use, and hepatitis C were identified as driving forces in different regions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Wanqing Chen
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China
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Zhu W, Liu S, Shi Y, Tang Q, Sun J, Bai R, Sun Z, Du Z. The epidemic of acute lymphoid leukemia in China: current trends and future prediction. Front Oncol 2023; 13:1195065. [PMID: 37397360 PMCID: PMC10313194 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1195065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2023] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Background China has experienced one of the fastest increases in the incidence of acute lymphoid leukemia (ALL). The aim of this study was to assess the long-term trends of the incidence and mortality of ALL in mainland China between 1990 and 2019 and to project these trends through 2028. Methods Data on ALL were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019; population data were extracted from World Population Prospects 2019. An age-period-cohort framework was used in the analysis. Results The net drift for the incidence of ALL was 7.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.1%, 7.8%) per year in women and 7.1% (95% CI: 6.7%, 7.6%) in men, and local drift was found to be higher than 0 in every studied age group (p<0.05). The net drift for mortality was 1.2% (95% CI: 1.0%, 1.5%) in women and 2.0% (95% CI: 1.7%, 2.3%) in men. Local drift was lower than 0 in boys aged 0-4 years and girls aged 0-9 years and higher than 0 in men aged 10-84 years and women aged 15-84 years. The estimated period relative risks (RRs) for both incidence and mortality showed increasing trends in the recent period. The cohort RRs for incidence showed increasing trends in both sexes; however, the cohort RR for mortality was decreased in the recent birth cohort (women born after 1988-1992 and men born after 2003-2007). Compared with that in 2019, the incidence of ALL in 2028 is projected to increase by 64.1% in men and 75.0% in women, and the mortality is predicted to decrease by 11.1% in men and 14.3% in women. The proportion of older adult/adults individuals with incident ALL and ALL-related death was projected to increase. Conclusions Over the last three decades, the incidence and mortality rates of ALL have generally increased. It is projected that the incidence rate of ALL in mainland China will continue to increase in the future, but the associated mortality rate will decline. The proportion of older adult/adults individuals with incident ALL and ALL-related death was projected to increase gradually among both sexes. More efforts are needed, especially for older adult/adults individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenxuan Zhu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Shaanxi Provincial People’s Hospital, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Shixuan Liu
- Health Science Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Ying Shi
- Department of Chronic Disease, Xi'an Weiyang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Qingyu Tang
- Health Science Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Jianzhong Sun
- Health Science Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Ruhai Bai
- School of Public Affairs, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Zhonghe Sun
- Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Zhaoqing Du
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Shaanxi Provincial People’s Hospital, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
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Guo Y, Zhang KY, Zou YF, Yu B. National situation, trends, and predictions of disease burden of atopic dermatitis in Chinese children and adolescents. Front Microbiol 2023; 14:1161969. [PMID: 37396371 PMCID: PMC10308015 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2023.1161969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Atopic dermatitis (AD) is an important global health problem affecting children and adolescents and detailed national information of disease burden in China is lacking. We aimed to evaluate the national disease burden of AD in Chinese children and adolescent, to provide the temporal trends over the past 30 years and to predict the burden for the next 10 years. Methods The data of AD in China, including incidence, prevalence, and DALY, and population data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD study 2019), which were estimated using the DisMod-MR 2.1. We analyzed the three measures by age and sex; the age groups were <5 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, and 15-19 years. The joinpoint regression analyses was conducted to assess the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. The Bayesian age-period cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict measures from 2020 to 2030. Results In 2019, the highest incidence case and rate were observed in <5 years group; for prevalence and disability adjusted life year (DALY), the groups of <5 years and 5-9 years showed similar higher levels and the groups of 10-14 years and 15-19 years had similar relatively lower levels. Overall, the male-to-female ratios were >1 in <5 years group and <1 in 10-14 and 15-19 age groups. The trend analyses found an overall trend of decrease in cases of the three measures; in recent about 3 years, slight increase trends were shown in cases and rates of the three measures in <5 years group. The prediction analyses found a slight decreasing trend for cases of these measures and a slight increasing trend for rates of these measures in the <5 years group in the next 10 years; the 5-9 years group was predicted to increase slightly in rates of the three measures. Conclusion In conclusion, the groups of <5 years and 5-9 years are two important populations that need targeted measures to reduce disease burden of AD in China. Regarding sex disparity, we should pay more attention to males in <5 years group and to females in 10-19 years group.
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Song C, Chen Y, Qiao Y. Preventable burden of head and neck cancer attributable to tobacco and alcohol between 1990 and 2039 in China. Cancer Sci 2023. [PMID: 37302807 PMCID: PMC10394139 DOI: 10.1111/cas.15877] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2023] [Revised: 05/16/2023] [Accepted: 05/18/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Tobacco use and heavy alcohol consumption are risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC), including oral, pharynx, and larynx cancer. No study has investigated the preventable burden of HNC attributable to tobacco and alcohol in China. We extracted data from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease. The preventable burden attributable to tobacco and alcohol was estimated by subtracting the overlapping fraction derived from a literature search. Descriptive analyses were performed initially, followed by joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. The future burden was forecasted using a Bayesian APC model. The crude burden increased significantly, while the age-standardized rates showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019 in China. Both all-age and age-standardized population attributable fractions rose significantly, potentially due to the poor prognosis of tobacco- and alcohol-associated HNC. The absolute burden would continue to climb in the next 20 years from 2019, largely due to population aging. For site-specific burden, compared with total, pharynx, and larynx cancer burden, the substantial upward trend of oral cancer burden indicated a strong interaction with risk factors such as genetic susceptibility, betel nut chewing, oral microbiota, and human papillomavirus. The burden of oral cancer attributable to tobacco and alcohol is a major concern and is anticipated to become more severe than cancer in other anatomic sites. Altogether, our study provides useful information to rethink the current restrictions on tobacco and alcohol, lean healthcare resources, and develop effective HNC prevention and control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng Song
- School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- Department of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yahan Chen
- Department of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- Yanjing Medical College, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Youlin Qiao
- School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- Department of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
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Xi JY, Zhang WJ, Chen Z, Zhang YT, Chen LC, Zhang YQ, Lin X, Hao YT. Potential Gains in Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy by Reducing Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in 188 Countries: A Population-Based Study. VALUE IN HEALTH : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR PHARMACOECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES RESEARCH 2023; 26:802-809. [PMID: 36549356 DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2022.12.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2022] [Revised: 11/28/2022] [Accepted: 12/09/2022] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This article quantifies the potential gains in health-adjusted life expectancy for people aged 30 to 70 years (HALE[30-70]) by examining the reductions in disability in addition to premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). METHODS We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 for 4 major NCDs (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus) in 188 countries from 2010 to 2019. Estimates of the potential gains in HALE[30-70] were based on a counterfactual analysis involving 3 alternative future scenarios: (1) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 but do not make any progress on disability reduction, (2) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 and eliminate NCD-related disability, and (3) eliminate all NCD-related mortality and disability. RESULTS In all scenarios, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70], above the global average. For all specific causes, potential gains in HALE[30-70] decrease as income levels fall. Across these 3 scenarios, the potential gains in HALE[30-70] globally of reducing premature mortality for 4 major NCDs are 3.13 years, 4.53 years, and 7.32 years, respectively. In scenario A, all income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases. In scenarios B and C, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cancer intervention, and the other income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cardiovascular diseases intervention. CONCLUSION Reducing premature death and disability from 4 major NCDs at once and attaching equal importance to each lead to a sizable improvement in HALE[30-70].
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun-Yan Xi
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wang-Jian Zhang
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zhuo Chen
- Department of Health Policy and Management, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA; School of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo, China
| | - Yan-Ting Zhang
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Li-Chang Chen
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yu-Qin Zhang
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiao Lin
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
| | - Yuan-Tao Hao
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness & Response, Peking University, Beijing, China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
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