Movement responses to environment: fast inference of variation among southern elephant seals with a mixed effects model

Future climate-induced distribution shifts in a sexually dimorphic key predator of the Southern Ocean

The response to climate change in highly dimorphic species can be hindered by differences between sexes in habitat preferences and movement patterns. The Antarctic fur seal, Arctocephalus gazella, is the most abundant pinniped in the Southern Hemisphere, and one of the main consumers of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, in the Southern Ocean. However, the populations breeding in the Atlantic Southern Ocean are decreasing, partly due to global warming. Male and female Antarctic fur seals differ greatly in body size and foraging ecology, and little is known about their sex-specific responses to climate change. We used satellite tracking data and Earth System Models to predict changes in habitat suitability for male and female Antarctic fur seals from the Western Antarctic Peninsula under different climate change scenarios. Under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5; global average temperature +4.4°C projected by 2100), suitable habitat patches will shift southward during the non-breeding season, leading to a minor overall habitat loss. The impact will be more pronounced for females than for males. The reduction of winter foraging grounds might decrease the survival of post-weaned females, reducing recruitment and jeopardizing population viability. During the breeding season, when males fast on land, suitable foraging grounds for females off the South Shetland Islands will remain largely unmodified, and new ones will emerge in the Bellingshausen Sea. As Antarctic fur seals are income breeders, the foraging grounds of females should be reasonably close to the breeding colony. As a result, the new suitable foraging grounds will be useful for females only if nearby beaches currently covered by sea ice emerge by the end of the century. Furthermore, the colonization of these new, ice-free breeding locations might be limited by strong female philopatry. These results should be considered when managing the fisheries of Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean.

Tracking seabird migration in the tropical Indian Ocean reveals basin-scale conservation need

Understanding marine predator distributions is an essential component of arresting their catastrophic declines.1,2,3,4 In temperate, polar, and upwelling seas, predictable oceanographic features can aggregate migratory predators, which benefit from site-based protection.5,6,7,8 In more oligotrophic tropical waters, however, it is unclear whether environmental conditions create similar multi-species hotspots. We track the non-breeding movements and habitat preferences of a tropical seabird assemblage (n = 348 individuals, 9 species, and 10 colonies in the western Indian Ocean), which supports globally important biodiversity.9,10,11,12 We mapped species richness from tracked populations and then predicted the same diversity measure for all known Indian Ocean colonies. Most species had large non-breeding ranges, low or variable residency patterns, and specific habitat preferences. This in turn revealed that maximum species richness covered >3.9 million km2, with no focused aggregations, in stark contrast to large-scale tracking studies in all other ocean basins.5,6,7,13,14 High species richness was captured by existing marine protected areas (MPAs) in the region; however, most occurred in the unprotected high seas beyond national jurisdictions. Seabirds experience cumulative anthropogenic impacts13 and high mortality15,16 during non-breeding. Therefore, our results suggest that seabird conservation in the tropical Indian Ocean requires an ocean-wide perspective, including high seas legislation.17 As restoration actions improve the outlook for tropical seabirds on land18,19,20,21,22 and environmental change reshapes the habitats that support them at sea,15,16 appropriate marine conservation will be crucial for their long-term recovery and whole ecosystem restoration.

Ontogeny of movement patterns in naïve grey seal pups inhabiting a complex continental shelf ecosystem

Most vertebrate offspring must transition from the relative security of parental care (nutrition and protection) to independent foraging. Offspring face many challenges during this critical period, particularly in species where parental care ends at weaning, such as the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus). We studied the development of movement behaviour in naïve grey seal pups from their first trips to sea to about five months of age. Twenty-five (12 males and 13 females) newly-weaned pups were fitted with satellite-linked GPS tags on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada in January 2016. The influence of fixed effects (pup size, sex, week) and the random effect of pup identity on trip characteristics were examined. Movement behaviour was analyzed using a move persistence mixed-effects model. Habitat use was highly variable among individuals and covered much of the geographic distribution of the population. Unlike older juveniles, subadults, and adults in this population, most naïve pups used multiple haulout sites to begin and end trips. There was little evidence of area-restricted search behaviour during trips, suggesting that naïve pups were using an opportunistic foraging tactic that may result in more variable foraging success than that of older, experienced animals. Naïve pups made longer trips with longer haulout durations between them than observed for older greys seals. Males and females differed in some trip characteristics, but sex effects were small over the first few months of life. Offspring size at weaning was not a useful predictor of trip characteristics. Move persistence of grey seal pups was initially high and then decreased over time as individuals gained experience. Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors were influential on the movements of grey seal pups. Greater body length at weaning, longer duration spent on shore after weaning, shallower water column depth, and farther distance from shore were all associated with lower move persistence. Female grey seal pups had lower move persistence than males. Overall, the movements of naïve grey seal pups during the first few months of life were characterized by extensive exploration, but move persistence decreased over time suggesting they may be using an exploration-refinement foraging tactic.

Building use-inspired species distribution models: Using multiple data types to examine and improve model performance

Species distribution models (SDMs) are becoming an important tool for marine conservation and management. Yet while there is an increasing diversity and volume of marine biodiversity data for training SDMs, little practical guidance is available on how to leverage distinct data types to build robust models. We explored the effect of different data types on the fit, performance and predictive ability of SDMs by comparing models trained with four data types for a heavily exploited pelagic fish, the blue shark (Prionace glauca), in the Northwest Atlantic: two fishery dependent (conventional mark-recapture tags, fisheries observer records) and two fishery independent (satellite-linked electronic tags, pop-up archival tags). We found that all four data types can result in robust models, but differences among spatial predictions highlighted the need to consider ecological realism in model selection and interpretation regardless of data type. Differences among models were primarily attributed to biases in how each data type, and the associated representation of absences, sampled the environment and summarized the resulting species distributions. Outputs from model ensembles and a model trained on all pooled data both proved effective for combining inferences across data types and provided more ecologically realistic predictions than individual models. Our results provide valuable guidance for practitioners developing SDMs. With increasing access to diverse data sources, future work should further develop truly integrative modeling approaches that can explicitly leverage the strengths of individual data types while statistically accounting for limitations, such as sampling biases.

Divergent migration routes reveal contrasting energy-minimization strategies to deal with differing resource predictability

BACKGROUND

Seasonal long-distance movements are a common feature in many taxa allowing animals to deal with seasonal habitats and life-history demands. Many species use different strategies to prioritize time- or energy-minimization, sometimes employing stop-over behaviours to offset the physiological burden of the directed movement associated with migratory behaviour. Migratory strategies are often limited by life-history and environmental constraints, but can also be modulated by the predictability of resources en route. While theory on population-wide strategies (e.g. energy-minimization) are well studied, there are increasing evidence for individual-level variation in movement patterns indicative of finer scale differences in migration strategies.

METHODS

We aimed to explore sources of individual variation in migration strategies for long-distance migrators using satellite telemetry location data from 41 narwhal spanning a 21-year period. Specifically, we aimed to determine and define the long-distance movement strategies adopted and how environmental variables may modulate these movements. Fine-scale movement behaviours were characterized using move-persistence models, where changes in move-persistence, highlighting autocorrelation in a movement trajectory, were evaluated against potential modulating environmental covariates. Areas of low move-persistence, indicative of area-restricted search-type behaviours, were deemed to indicate evidence of stop-overs along the migratory route.

RESULTS

Here, we demonstrate two divergent migratory tactics to maintain a similar overall energy-minimization strategy within a single population of narwhal. Narwhal migrating offshore exhibited more tortuous movement trajectories overall with no evidence of spatially-consistent stop-over locations across individuals. Nearshore migrating narwhal undertook more directed routes, contrasted by spatially-explicit stop-over behaviour in highly-productive fjord and canyon systems along the coast of Baffin Island for periods of several days to several weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

Within a single population, divergent migratory tactics can achieve a similar overall energy-minimizing strategy within a species as a response to differing trade-offs between predictable and unpredictable resources. Our methodological approach, which revealed the modulators of fine-scale migratory movements and predicted regional stop-over sites, is widely applicable to a variety of other aquatic and terrestrial species. Quantifying marine migration strategies will be key for adaptive conservation in the face of climate change and ever increasing human pressures.

Effects of disease on foraging behaviour and success in an individual free-ranging northern elephant seal

Evaluating consequences of stressors on vital rates in marine mammals is of considerable interest to scientific and regulatory bodies. Many of these species face numerous anthropogenic and environmental disturbances. Despite its importance as a critical form of mortality, little is known about disease progression in air-breathing marine megafauna at sea. We examined the movement, diving, foraging behaviour and physiological state of an adult female northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) who suffered from an infection while at sea. Comparing her to healthy individuals, we identified abnormal behavioural patterns from high-resolution biologging instruments that are likely indicators of diseased and deteriorating condition. We observed continuous extended (3-30 minutes) surface intervals coinciding with almost no foraging attempts (jaw motion) during 2 weeks of acute illness early in her post-breeding foraging trip. Elephant seals typically spend ~ 2 minutes at the surface. There were less frequent but highly extended (30-200 minutes) surface periods across the remainder of the trip. Dive duration declined throughout the trip rather than increasing. This seal returned in the poorest body condition recorded for an adult female elephant seal (18.3% adipose tissue; post-breeding trip average is 30.4%). She was immunocompromised at the end of her foraging trip and has not been seen since that moulting season. The timing and severity of the illness, which began during the end of the energy-intensive lactation fast, forced this animal over a tipping point from which she could not recover. Additional physiological constraints to foraging, including thermoregulation and oxygen consumption, likely exacerbated her already poor condition. These findings improve our understanding of illness in free-ranging air-breathing marine megafauna, demonstrate the vulnerability of individuals at critical points in their life history, highlight the importance of considering individual health when interpreting biologging data and could help differentiate between malnutrition and other causes of at-sea mortality from transmitted data.

Brain activity of diving seals reveals short sleep cycles at depth

Sleep is a crucial part of the daily activity patterns of mammals. However, in marine species that spend months or entire lifetimes at sea, the location, timing, and duration of sleep may be constrained. To understand how marine mammals satisfy their daily sleep requirements while at sea, we monitored electroencephalographic activity in wild northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) diving in Monterey Bay, California. Brain-wave patterns showed that seals took short (less than 20 minutes) naps while diving (maximum depth 377 meters; 104 sleeping dives). Linking these patterns to accelerometry and the time-depth profiles of 334 free-ranging seals (514,406 sleeping dives) revealed a North Pacific sleepscape in which seals averaged only 2 hours of sleep per day for 7 months, rivaling the record for the least sleep among all mammals, which is currently held by the African elephant (about 2 hours per day).

Satellite Tracking of Head-Started Juvenile Green Turtles (Chelonia mydas) Reveals Release Effects and an Ontogenetic Shift

Juveniles of marine species, such as sea turtles, are often understudied in movement ecology. To determine dispersal patterns and release effects, we released 40 satellite-tagged juvenile head-started green turtles (Chelonia mydas, 1–4 years) from two separate locations (January and July 2023) off the coast of the Cayman Islands. A statistical model and vector plots were used to determine drivers of turtle directional swimming persistence and the role of ocean current direction. More than half (N = 22) effectively dispersed in 6–22 days from the islands to surrounding areas. The January turtles radiated out (185–1138 km) in distinct directions in contrast to the northward dispersal of the July turtles (27–396 km). Statistical results and vector plots supported that daily swimming persistence increased towards the end of tracks and near coastal regions, with turtles largely swimming in opposition to ocean currents. These results demonstrate that captive-reared juvenile greens have the ability to successfully navigate towards key coastal developmental habitats. Differences in dispersal (January vs. July) further support the importance of release timing and location. Our results inform conservation of the recovering Caymanian green turtles and we advise on how our methods can be improved and modified for future sea turtle and juvenile movement ecology studies.

Linking movement and dive data to prey distribution models: new insights in foraging behaviour and potential pitfalls of movement analyses

BACKGROUND

Animal movement data are regularly used to infer foraging behaviour and relationships to environmental characteristics, often to help identify critical habitat. To characterize foraging, movement models make a set of assumptions rooted in theory, for example, time spent foraging in an area increases with higher prey density.

METHODS

We assessed the validity of these assumptions by associating horizontal movement and diving of satellite-telemetered ringed seals (Pusa hispida)-an opportunistic predator-in Hudson Bay, Canada, to modelled prey data and environmental proxies.

RESULTS

Modelled prey biomass data performed better than their environmental proxies (e.g., sea surface temperature) for explaining seal movement; however movement was not related to foraging effort. Counter to theory, seals appeared to forage more in areas with relatively lower prey diversity and biomass, potentially due to reduced foraging efficiency in those areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the need to validate movement analyses with prey data to effectively estimate the relationship between prey availability and foraging behaviour.

Track and dive-based movement metrics do not predict the number of prey encountered by a marine predator

BACKGROUND

Studying animal movement in the context of the optimal foraging theory has led to the development of simple movement metrics for inferring feeding activity. Yet, the predictive capacity of these metrics in natural environments has been given little attention, raising serious questions of the validity of these metrics. The aim of this study is to test whether simple continuous movement metrics predict feeding intensity in a marine predator, the southern elephant seal (SES; Mirounga leonine), and investigate potential factors influencing the predictive capacity of these metrics.

METHODS

We equipped 21 female SES from the Kerguelen Archipelago with loggers and recorded their movements during post-breeding foraging trips at sea. From accelerometry, we estimated the number of prey encounter events (nPEE) and used it as a reference for feeding intensity. We also extracted several track- and dive-based movement metrics and evaluated how well they explain and predict the variance in nPEE. We conducted our analysis at two temporal scales (dive and day), with two dive profile resolutions (high at 1 Hz and low with five dive segments), and two types of models (linear models and regression trees).

RESULTS

We found that none of the movement metrics predict nPEE with satisfactory power. The vertical transit rates (primarily the ascent rate) during dives had the best predictive performance among all metrics. Dive metrics performed better than track metrics and all metrics performed on average better at the scale of days than the scale of dives. However, the performance of the models at the scale of days showed higher variability among individuals suggesting distinct foraging tactics. Dive-based metrics performed better when computed from high-resolution dive profiles than low-resolution dive profiles. Finally, regression trees produced more accurate predictions than linear models.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study reveals that simple movement metrics do not predict feeding activity in free-ranging marine predators. This could emerge from differences between individuals, temporal scales, and the data resolution used, among many other factors. We conclude that these simple metrics should be avoided or carefully tested a priori with the studied species and the ecological context to account for significant influencing factors.

Satellite tag derived data from two Antarctic blue whales (Balaenopteramusculusintermedia) tagged in the east Antarctic sector of the Southern Ocean

Background

Satellite tags were deployed on two Antarctic blue whales (Balaenopteramusculusintermedia) in the east Antarctic sector of the Southern Ocean as part of the International Whaling Commission's Southern Ocean Research Partnership initiative. The satellite tracks generated are the first and currently, the only, satellite telemetry data that exist for this critically endangered species. These data provide valuable insights into the movements of Antarctic blue whales on their Antarctic feeding ground. The data were collected between February and April 2013 and span a 110° longitudinal range.

New information

This dataset is the first and only detailed movement data that exist for this critically endangered species. As such, this dataset provides the first measures of movement rates (distances travelled, speeds) and movement behaviour (distinguishing transit behaviour from area restricted search behaviour) within the Southern Ocean. These movement-based measures are critical to the ongoing management of Antarctic blue whales as they recover from commercial whaling as they provide insight into foraging behaviour, habitat use, population structure and overlap with anthropogenic threats.

Decadal migration phenology of a long-lived Arctic icon keeps pace with climate change

Animals migrate in response to seasonal environments, to reproduce, to benefit from resource pulses, or to avoid fluctuating hazards. Although climate change is predicted to modify migration, only a few studies to date have demonstrated phenological shifts in marine mammals. In the Arctic, marine mammals are considered among the most sensitive to ongoing climate change due to their narrow habitat preferences and long life spans. Longevity may prove an obstacle for species to evolutionarily respond. For species that exhibit high site fidelity and strong associations with migration routes, adjusting the timing of migration is one of the few recourses available to respond to a changing climate. Here, we demonstrate evidence of significant delays in the timing of narwhal autumn migrations with satellite tracking data spanning 21 y from the Canadian Arctic. Measures of migration phenology varied annually and were explained by sex and climate drivers associated with ice conditions, suggesting that narwhals are adopting strategic migration tactics. Male narwhals were found to lead the migration out of the summering areas, while females, potentially with dependent young, departed later. Narwhals are remaining longer in their summer areas at a rate of 10 d per decade, a similar rate to that observed for climate-driven sea ice loss across the region. The consequences of altered space use and timing have yet to be evaluated but will expose individuals to increasing natural changes and anthropogenic activities on the summering areas.

Movements of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from Davis Base, Antarctica: combining population genetics and tracking data

Marine animals such as the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) rely on a productive marine environment and are vulnerable to oceanic changes that can affect their reproduction and survival rates. Davis Base, Antarctica, acts as a moulting site for southern elephant seals that forage in Prydz Bay, but the mitochondrial haplotype diversity and natal source populations of these seals have not been characterized. In this study, we combined genetic and animal tracking data on these moulting seals to identify levels of mitochondrial haplotype diversity, natal source population, and movement behaviours during foraging and haul-out periods. Using partial sequences of the mitochondrial control region, we identified two major breeding mitochondrial lineages of seals at Davis Base. We found that the majority of the seals originated from breeding stocks within the South Atlantic Ocean and South Indian Ocean. One seal was grouped with the Macquarie Island breeding stock (South Pacific Ocean). The Macquarie Island population, unlike the other two stocks, is decreasing in size. Tracking data revealed long-distance foraging activity of the Macquarie Island seal around Crozet Islands. We speculate that changes to the Antarctic marine environment can result in a shift in foraging and movement strategies, which subsequently affects seal population growth rates.

Round-trip migration and energy budget of a breeding female humpback whale in the Northeast Atlantic

In the northern hemisphere, humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) typically migrate between summer/autumn feeding grounds at high latitudes, and specific winter/spring breeding grounds at low latitudes. Northeast Atlantic (NEA) humpback whales for instance forage in the Barents Sea and breed either in the West Indies, or the Cape Verde Islands, undertaking the longest recorded mammalian migration (~ 9 000 km). However, in the past decade hundreds of individuals have been observed foraging on herring during the winter in fjord systems along the northern Norwegian coast, with unknown consequences to their migration phenology, breeding behavior and energy budgets. Here we present the first complete migration track (321 days, January 8^th, 2019—December 6^th, 2019) of a humpback whale, a pregnant female that was equipped with a satellite tag in northern Norway. We show that whales can use foraging grounds in the NEA (Barents Sea, coastal Norway, and Iceland) sequentially within the same migration cycle, foraging in the Barents Sea in summer/fall and in coastal Norway and Iceland in winter. The migration speed was fast (1.6 ms^-1), likely to account for the long migration distance (18 300 km) and long foraging season, but varied throughout the migration, presumably in response to the calf’s needs after its birth. The energetic cost of this migration was higher than for individuals belonging to other populations. Our results indicate that large whales can modulate their migration speed to balance foraging opportunities with migration phenology, even for the longest migrations and under the added constraint of reproduction.

Individual and joint estimation of humpback whale migratory patterns and their environmental drivers in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) perform seasonal migrations from high latitude feeding grounds to low latitude breeding and calving grounds. Feeding grounds at polar regions are currently experiencing major ecosystem modifications, therefore, quantitatively assessing species responses to habitat characteristics is crucial for understanding how whales might respond to such modifications. We analyzed satellite telemetry data from 22 individual humpback whales in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean (SWA). Tagging effort was divided in two periods, 2003-2012 and 2016-2019. Correlations between whale's movement parameters and environmental variables were used as proxy for inferring behavioral responses to environmental variation. Two versions of a covariate-driven continuous-time correlated random-walk state-space model, were fitted to the data: i) Population-level models (P-models), which assess correlation parameters pooling data across all individuals or groups, and ii) individual-level models (I-models), fitted independently for each tagged whale. Area of Restricted Search behavior (slower and less directionally persistent movement, ARS) was concentrated at cold waters south of the Polar Front (~ 50°S). The best model showed that ARS was expected to occur in coastal areas and over ridges and seamounts. Ice coverage during August of each year was a consistent predictor of ARS across models. Wind stress curl and sea surface temperature anomalies were also correlated with movement parameters but elicited larger inter-individual variation. I-models were consistent with P-models' predictions for the case of females accompanied by calves (mothers), while males and those of undetermined sex (males +) presented more variability as a group. Spatial predictions of humpback whale behavioral responses showed that feeding grounds for this population are concentrated in the complex system of islands, ridges, and rises of the Scotia Sea and the northern Weddell Ridge. More southernly incursions were observed in recent years, suggesting a potential response to increased temperature and large ice coverage reduction observed in the late 2010s. Although, small sample size and differences in tracking duration precluded appropriately testing predictions for such a distributional shift, our modelling framework showed the efficiency of borrowing statistical strength during data pooling, while pinpointing where more complexity should be added in the future as additional data become available.

Ocean warming alters the distributional range, migratory timing, and spatial protections of an apex predator, the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier)

Given climate change threats to ecosystems, it is critical to understand the responses of species to warming. This is especially important in the case of apex predators since they exhibit relatively high extinction risk, and changes to their distribution could impact predator-prey interactions that can initiate trophic cascades. Here we used a combined analysis of animal tracking, remotely sensed environmental data, habitat modeling, and capture data to evaluate the effects of climate variability and change on the distributional range and migratory phenology of an ectothermic apex predator, the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier). Tiger sharks satellite tracked in the western North Atlantic between 2010 and 2019 revealed significant annual variability in the geographic extent and timing of their migrations to northern latitudes from ocean warming. Specifically, tiger shark migrations have extended farther poleward and arrival times to northern latitudes have occurred earlier in the year during periods with anomalously high sea-surface temperatures. A complementary analysis of nearly 40 years of tiger shark captures in the region revealed decadal-scale changes in the distribution and timing of shark captures in parallel with long-term ocean warming. Specifically, areas of highest catch densities have progressively increased poleward and catches have occurred earlier in the year off the North American shelf. During periods of anomalously high sea-surface temperatures, movements of tracked sharks shifted beyond spatial management zones that had been affording them protection from commercial fishing and bycatch. Taken together, these study results have implications for fisheries management, human-wildlife conflict, and ecosystem functioning.

Environmental drivers of population-level variation in the migratory and diving ontogeny of an Arctic top predator

The development of migratory strategies that enable juveniles to survive to sexual maturity is critical for species that exploit seasonal niches. For animals that forage via breath-hold diving, this requires a combination of both physiological and foraging skill development. Here, we assess how migratory and dive behaviour develop over the first year of life for a migratory Arctic top predator, the harp seal Pagophilus groenlandicus, tracked using animal-borne satellite relay data loggers. We reveal similarities in migratory movements and differences in diving behaviour between 38 juveniles tracked from the Greenland Sea and Northwest Atlantic breeding populations. In both regions, periods of resident and transitory behaviour during migration were associated with proxies for food availability: sea ice concentration and bathymetric depth. However, while ontogenetic development of dive behaviour was similar for both populations of juveniles over the first 25 days, after this time Greenland Sea animals performed shorter and shallower dives and were more closely associated with sea ice than Northwest Atlantic animals. Together, these results highlight the role of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors in shaping early life behaviour. Variation in the environmental conditions experienced during early life may shape how different populations respond to the rapid changes occurring in the Arctic ocean ecosystem.

A vast icefish breeding colony discovered in the Antarctic

A breeding colony of notothenioid icefish (Neopagetopsis ionah, Nybelin 1947) of globally unprecedented extent has been discovered in the southern Weddell Sea, Antarctica. The colony was estimated to cover at least ∼240 km² of the eastern flank of the Filchner Trough, comprised of fish nests at a density of 0.26 nests per square meter, representing an estimated total of ∼60 million active nests and associated fish biomass of >60,000 tonnes. The majority of nests were each occupied by 1 adult fish guarding 1,735 eggs (±433 SD). Bottom water temperatures measured across the nesting colony were up to 2°C warmer than the surrounding bottom waters, indicating a spatial correlation between the modified Warm Deep Water (mWDW) upflow onto the Weddell Shelf and the active nesting area. Historical and concurrently collected seal movement data indicate that this concentrated fish biomass may be utilized by predators such as Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii, Lesson 1826). Numerous degraded fish carcasses within and near the nesting colony suggest that, in death as well as life, these fish provide input for local food webs and influence local biogeochemical processing. To our knowledge, the area surveyed harbors the most spatially expansive continuous fish breeding colony discovered to date globally at any depth, as well as an exceptionally high Antarctic seafloor biomass. This discovery provides support for the establishment of a regional marine protected area in the Southern Ocean under the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) umbrella. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Multivariate generalized linear mixed models for continuous bounded outcomes: Analyzing the body fat percentage data

We propose a multivariate regression model to handle multiple continuous bounded outcomes. We adopted the maximum likelihood approach for parameter estimation and inference. The model is specified by the product of univariate probability distributions and the correlation between the response variables is obtained through the correlation matrix of the random intercepts. For modeling continuous bounded variables on the interval (0,1) we considered the beta and unit gamma distributions. The main advantage of the proposed model is that we can easily combine different marginal distributions for the response variable vector. The computational implementation is performed using Template Model Builder, which combines the Laplace approximation with automatic differentiation. Therefore, the proposed approach allows us to estimate the model parameters quickly and efficiently. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the computational implementation and the properties of the maximum likelihood estimators under different scenarios. Moreover, we investigate the impact of distribution misspecification in the proposed model. Our model was motivated by a data set with multiple continuous bounded outcomes, which refer to the body fat percentage measured at five regions of the body. Simulation studies and data analysis showed that the proposed model provides a general and rich framework to deal with multiple continuous bounded outcomes.

Winter distribution of juvenile and sub-adult male Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) along the western Antarctic Peninsula

Detailed knowledge of habitat use by marine megafauna is critical to understand their ecological roles and for the adequate management of marine resources. Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) inhabiting the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean prey largely on Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and play a central role in managing the krill fishery. Here, we assessed the demographic structure of three post-mating, early moult male haul-outs in the South Shetland Islands in early March and calculated the relative contribution of juveniles (1–4 years old) and sub-adult males (5–6 years) to the population remaining in maritime Antarctica after the breeding season. We also satellite tagged 11 juvenile males and four sub-adult males to analyze their movements and develop a species distribution model including both age classes. Our results highlighted the dominance of young individuals in the male population, revealed that they do not behave as central place foragers and identified key environmental drivers that affected their distribution at-sea throughout winter. Predicted potential foraging habitat overlapped highly with the known distribution of Antarctic krill, and identified the waters off the western Antarctic Peninsula and the Scotia Sea as the core of the distribution area of juvenile and sub-adult male Antarctic fur seals in winter. This pattern is similar to that of adult males but totally different from that of adult females, as the latter overwinter in areas at latitude 45–55° S. This segregation has implications for the ecology and management of the krill fishery.

Mechanistic movement models identify continuously updated autumn migration cues in Arctic caribou

BACKGROUND

Migrations in temperate systems typically have two migratory phases, spring and autumn, and many migratory ungulates track the pulse of spring vegetation growth during a synchronized spring migration. In contrast, autumn migrations are generally less synchronous and the cues driving them remain understudied. Our goal was to identify the cues that migrants use in deciding when to initiate migration and how this is updated while en route.

METHODS

We analyzed autumn migrations of Arctic barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus) as a series of persistent and directional movements and assessed the influence of a suite of environmental factors. We fitted a dynamic-parameter movement model at the individual-level and estimated annual population-level parameters for weather covariates on 389 individual-seasons across 9 years.

RESULTS

Our results revealed strong, consistent effects of decreasing temperature and increasing snow depth on migratory movements, indicating that caribou continuously update their migratory decision based on dynamic environmental conditions. This suggests that individuals pace migration along gradients of these environmental variables. Whereas temperature and snow appeared to be the most consistent cues for migration, we also found interannual variability in the effect of wind, NDVI, and barometric pressure. The dispersed distribution of individuals in autumn resulted in diverse environmental conditions experienced by individual caribou and thus pronounced variability in migratory patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

By analyzing autumn migration as a continuous process across the entire migration period, we found that caribou migration was largely related to temperature and snow conditions experienced throughout the journey. This mechanism of pacing autumn migration based on indicators of the approaching winter is analogous to the more widely researched mechanism of spring migration, when many migrants pace migration with a resource wave. Such a similarity in mechanisms highlights the different environmental stimuli to which migrants have adapted their movements throughout their annual cycle. These insights have implications for how long-distance migratory patterns may change as the Arctic climate continues to warm.

Horizontal-vertical movement relationships: Adélie penguins forage continuously throughout provisioning trips

BACKGROUND

Diving marine predators forage in a three-dimensional environment, adjusting their horizontal and vertical movement behaviour in response to environmental conditions and the spatial distribution of prey. Expectations regarding horizontal-vertical movements are derived from optimal foraging theories, however, inconsistent empirical findings across a range of taxa suggests these behavioural assumptions are not universally applicable.

METHODS

Here, we examined how changes in horizontal movement trajectories corresponded with diving behaviour and marine environmental conditions for a ubiquitous Southern Ocean predator, the Adélie penguin. Integrating extensive telemetry-based movement and environmental datasets for chick-rearing Adélie penguins at Béchervaise Island, we tested the relationships between horizontal move persistence (continuous scale indicating low ['resident'] to high ['directed'] movement autocorrelation), vertical dive effort and environmental variables.

RESULTS

Penguins dived continuously over the course of their foraging trips and lower horizontal move persistence corresponded with less intense foraging activity, likely indicative of resting behaviour. This challenges the traditional interpretation of horizontal-vertical movement relationships based on optimal foraging models, which assumes increased residency within an area translates to increased foraging activity. Movement was also influenced by different environmental conditions during the two stages of chick-rearing: guard and crèche. These differences highlight the strong seasonality of foraging habitat for chick-rearing Adélie penguins at Béchervaise Island.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings advance our understanding of the foraging behaviour for this marine predator and demonstrates the importance of integrating spatial location and behavioural data before inferring habitat use.

Combining Regional Habitat Selection Models for Large-Scale Prediction: Circumpolar Habitat Selection of Southern Ocean Humpback Whales

Machine learning algorithms are often used to model and predict animal habitat selection—the relationships between animal occurrences and habitat characteristics. For broadly distributed species, habitat selection often varies among populations and regions; thus, it would seem preferable to fit region- or population-specific models of habitat selection for more accurate inference and prediction, rather than fitting large-scale models using pooled data. However, where the aim is to make range-wide predictions, including areas for which there are no existing data or models of habitat selection, how can regional models best be combined? We propose that ensemble approaches commonly used to combine different algorithms for a single region can be reframed, treating regional habitat selection models as the candidate models. By doing so, we can incorporate regional variation when fitting predictive models of animal habitat selection across large ranges. We test this approach using satellite telemetry data from 168 humpback whales across five geographic regions in the Southern Ocean. Using random forests, we fitted a large-scale model relating humpback whale locations, versus background locations, to 10 environmental covariates, and made a circumpolar prediction of humpback whale habitat selection. We also fitted five regional models, the predictions of which we used as input features for four ensemble approaches: an unweighted ensemble, an ensemble weighted by environmental similarity in each cell, stacked generalization, and a hybrid approach wherein the environmental covariates and regional predictions were used as input features in a new model. We tested the predictive performance of these approaches on an independent validation dataset of humpback whale sightings and whaling catches. These multiregional ensemble approaches resulted in models with higher predictive performance than the circumpolar naive model. These approaches can be used to incorporate regional variation in animal habitat selection when fitting range-wide predictive models using machine learning algorithms. This can yield more accurate predictions across regions or populations of animals that may show variation in habitat selection.

Defining priority areas for blue whale conservation and investigating overlap with vessel traffic in Chilean Patagonia, using a fast-fitting movement model

Defining priority areas and risk evaluation is of utmost relevance for endangered species` conservation. For the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus), we aim to assess environmental habitat selection drivers, priority areas for conservation and overlap with vessel traffic off northern Chilean Patagonia (NCP). For this, we implemented a single-step continuous-time correlated-random-walk model which accommodates observational error and movement parameters variation in relation to oceanographic variables. Spatially explicit predictions of whales' behavioral responses were combined with density predictions from previous species distribution models (SDM) and vessel tracking data to estimate the relative probability of vessels encountering whales and identifying areas where interaction is likely to occur. These estimations were conducted independently for the aquaculture, transport, artisanal fishery, and industrial fishery fleets operating in NCP. Blue whale movement patterns strongly agreed with SDM results, reinforcing our knowledge regarding oceanographic habitat selection drivers. By combining movement and density modeling approaches we provide a stronger support for purported priority areas for blue whale conservation and how they overlap with the main vessel traffic corridor in the NCP. The aquaculture fleet was one order of magnitude larger than any other fleet, indicating it could play a decisive role in modulating potential negative vessel-whale interactions within NCP.

Inter- and intrasex habitat partitioning in the highly dimorphic southern elephant seal

Partitioning resources is a key mechanism for avoiding intraspecific competition and maximizing individual energy gain. However, in sexually dimorphic species it is difficult to discern if partitioning is due to competition or the different resource needs of morphologically distinct individuals. In the highly dimorphic southern elephant seal, there are intersexual differences in habitat use; at Iles Kerguelen, males predominantly use shelf waters, while females use deeper oceanic waters. There are equally marked intrasexual differences, with some males using the nearby Kerguelen Plateau, and others using the much more distant Antarctic continental shelf (~2,000 km away). We used this combination of inter and intrasexual behavior to test two hypotheses regarding habitat partitioning in highly dimorphic species. (a) that intersexual differences in habitat use will not appear until the seals diverge in body size and (b) that some habitats have higher rates of energy return than others. In particular, that the Antarctic shelf would provide higher energy returns than the Kerguelen Shelf, to offset the greater cost of travel. We quantified the habitat use of 187 southern elephant seals (102 adult females and 85 subadult males). The seals in the two groups were the same size (~2.4 m) removing the confounding effect of body size. We found that the intersexual differences in habitat use existed before the divergence in body size. Also, we found that the amount of energy gained was the same in all of the major habitats. This suggests that the use of shelf habitats by males is innate, and a trade-off between the need to access the large benthic prey available on shelf waters, against the higher risk of predation there. Intrasexual differences in habitat use are another trade-off; although there are fewer predators on the Antarctic shelf, it is subject to considerable interannual fluctuations in sea-ice extent. In contrast, the Kerguelen Plateau presents more consistent foraging opportunities, but contains higher levels of predation. Habitat partitioning in this highly dimorphic species is therefore the result of complex interplay of life history strategies, environmental conditions and predation pressure.

Novel step selection analyses on energy landscapes reveal how linear features alter migrations of soaring birds

Human modification of landscapes includes extensive addition of linear features, such as roads and transmission lines. These can alter animal movement and space use and affect the intensity of interactions among species, including predation and competition. Effects of linear features on animal movement have seen relatively little research in avian systems, despite ample evidence of their effects in mammalian systems and that some types of linear features, including both roads and transmission lines, are substantial sources of mortality. Here, we used satellite telemetry combined with step selection functions designed to explicitly incorporate the energy landscape (el-SSFs) to investigate the effects of linear features and habitat on movements and space use of a large soaring bird, the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos, during migration. Our sample consisted of 32 adult eagles tracked for 45 spring and 39 fall migrations from 2014 to 2017. Fitted el-SSFs indicated eagles had a strong general preference for south-facing slopes, where thermal uplift develops predictably, and that these areas are likely important aspects of migratory pathways. el-SSFs also provided evidence that roads and railroads affected movement during both spring and fall migrations, but eagles selected areas near roads to a greater degree in spring compared to fall and at higher latitudes compared to lower latitudes. During spring, time spent near linear features often occurred during slower-paced or stopover movements, perhaps in part to access carrion produced by vehicle collisions. Regardless of the behavioural mechanism of selection, use of these features could expose eagles and other soaring species to elevated risk via collision with vehicles and/or transmission lines. Linear features have previously been documented to affect the ecology of terrestrial species (e.g. large mammals) by modifying individuals' movement patterns; our work shows that these effects on movement extend to avian taxa.

Decadal changes in blood δ13C values, at-sea distribution, and weaning mass of southern elephant seals from Kerguelen Islands

Changes in the foraging environment and at-sea distribution of southern elephant seals from Kerguelen Islands were investigated over a decade (2004-2018) using tracking, weaning mass, and blood δ13C values. Females showed either a sub-Antarctic or an Antarctic foraging strategy, and no significant shift in their at-sea distribution was detected between 2004 and 2017. The proportion of females foraging in sub-Antarctic versus Antarctic habitats did not change over the 2006-2018 period. Pup weaning mass varied according to the foraging habitat of their mothers. The weaning mass of sub-Antarctic foraging mothers' pups decreased by 11.7 kg over the study period, but they were on average 5.8 kg heavier than pups from Antarctic foraging mothers. Pup blood δ13C values decreased by 1.1‰ over the study period regardless of their sex and the presumed foraging habitat of their mothers. Together, these results suggest an ecological change is occurring within the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean with possible consequences on the foraging performance of southern elephant seals. We hypothesize that this shift in δ13C is related to a change in primary production and/or in the composition of phytoplankton communities, but this requires further multidisciplinary investigations.

Movement patterns and habitat use of tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) across ontogeny in the Gulf of Mexico

The tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) is globally distributed with established coastal and open-ocean movement patterns in many portions of its range. While all life stages of tiger sharks are known to occur in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), variability in habitat use and movement patterns over ontogeny have never been quantified in this large marine ecosystem. To address this data gap we fitted 56 tiger sharks with Smart Position and Temperature transmitting tags between 2010 and 2018 and examined seasonal and spatial distribution patterns across the GoM. Additionally, we analyzed overlap of core habitats (i.e., 50% kernel density estimates) among individuals relative to large benthic features (oil and gas platforms, natural banks, bathymetric breaks). Our analyses revealed significant ontogenetic and seasonal differences in distribution patterns as well as across-shelf (i.e., regional) and sex-linked variability in movement rates. Presumably sub-adult and adult sharks achieved significantly higher movement rates and used off-shelf deeper habitats at greater proportions than juvenile sharks, particularly during the fall and winter seasons. Further, female maximum rate of movement was higher than males when accounting for size. Additionally, we found evidence of core regions encompassing the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration designated Habitat Areas of Particular Concern (i.e., shelf-edge banks) during cooler months, particularly by females, as well as 2,504 oil and gas platforms. These data provide a baseline for future assessments of environmental impacts, such as climate variability or oil spills, on tiger shark movements and distribution in the region. Future research may benefit from combining alternative tracking tools, such as acoustic telemetry and genetic approaches, which can facilitate long-term assessment of the species’ movement dynamics and better elucidate the ecological significance of the core habitats identified here.

Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change^1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

A continuous-time state-space model for rapid quality control of argos locations from animal-borne tags

BACKGROUND

State-space models are important tools for quality control and analysis of error-prone animal movement data. The near real-time (within 24 h) capability of the Argos satellite system can aid dynamic ocean management of human activities by informing when animals enter wind farms, shipping lanes, and other intensive use zones. This capability also facilitates the use of ocean observations from animal-borne sensors in operational ocean forecasting models. Such near real-time data provision requires rapid, reliable quality control to deal with error-prone Argos locations.

METHODS

We formulate a continuous-time state-space model to filter the three types of Argos location data (Least-Squares, Kalman filter, and Kalman smoother), accounting for irregular timing of observations. Our model is deliberately simple to ensure speed and reliability for automated, near real-time quality control of Argos location data. We validate the model by fitting to Argos locations collected from 61 individuals across 7 marine vertebrates and compare model-estimated locations to contemporaneous GPS locations. We then test assumptions that Argos Kalman filter/smoother error ellipses are unbiased, and that Argos Kalman smoother location accuracy cannot be improved by subsequent state-space modelling.

RESULTS

Estimation accuracy varied among species with Root Mean Squared Errors usually <5 km and these decreased with increasing data sampling rate and precision of Argos locations. Including a model parameter to inflate Argos error ellipse sizes in the north - south direction resulted in more accurate location estimates. Finally, in some cases the model appreciably improved the accuracy of the Argos Kalman smoother locations, which should not be possible if the smoother is using all available information.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model provides quality-controlled locations from Argos Least-Squares or Kalman filter data with accuracy similar to or marginally better than Argos Kalman smoother data that are only available via fee-based reprocessing. Simplicity and ease of use make the model suitable both for automated quality control of near real-time Argos data and for manual use by researchers working with historical Argos data.

Finding mesopelagic prey in a changing Southern Ocean

Mesopelagic fish and squid occupy ocean depths extending below the photic zone and their vertical migrations represent a massive pathway moving energy and carbon through the water column. Their spatio-temporal distribution is however, difficult to map across remote regions particularly the vast Southern Ocean. This represents a key gap in understanding biogeochemical processes, marine ecosystem structure, and how changing ocean conditions will affect marine predators, which depend upon mesopelagic prey. We infer mesopelagic prey vertical distribution and relative abundance in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean (20° to 130°E) with a novel approach using predator-derived indices. Fourteen years of southern elephant seal tracking and dive data, from the open ocean between the Antarctic Polar Front and the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current front, clearly show that the vertical distribution of mesopelagic prey is influenced by the physical hydrographic processes that structure their habitat. Mesopelagic prey have a more restricted vertical migration and higher relative abundance closer to the surface where Circumpolar Deep Water rises to shallower depths. Combining these observations with a future projection of Southern Ocean conditions we show that changes in the coupling of surface and deep waters will potentially redistribute mesopelagic prey. These changes are small overall, but show important spatial variability: prey will increase in relative abundance to the east of the Kerguelen Plateau but decrease to the west. The consequences for deep-diving specialists such as elephant seals and whales over this time scale will likely be minor, but the changes in mesoscale vertical energy flow have implications for predators that forage within the mesopelagic zone as well as the broader pelagic ecosystem.

New insights into prime Southern Ocean forage grounds for thriving Western Australian humpback whales

Humpback whale populations migrate extensively between winter breeding grounds and summer feeding grounds, however known links to remote Antarctic feeding grounds remain limited in many cases. New satellite tracks detail humpback whale migration pathways from Western Australia into the Southern Ocean. These highlight a focal feeding area during austral spring and early summer at the southern Kerguelen plateau, in a western boundary current where a sharp northward turn and retroflection of ocean fronts occurs along the eastern plateau edge. The topographic steering of oceanographic features here likely supports a predictable, productive and persistent forage ground. The spatial distribution of whaling catches and Discovery era mark-recaptures confirms the importance of this region to Western Australian humpback whales since at least historical times. Movement modelling discriminates sex-related behaviours, with females moving faster during both transit and resident periods, which may be a consequence of size or indicate differential energetic requirements. Relatively short and directed migratory pathways overall, together with high-quality, reliable forage resources may provide a partial explanation for the ongoing strong recovery demonstrated by this population. The combination of new oceanographic information and movement data provides enhanced understanding of important biological processes, which are relevant within the context of the current spatial management and conservation efforts in the Southern Ocean.

Ecological correlates of blue whale movement behavior and its predictability in the California Current Ecosystem during the summer-fall feeding season

BACKGROUND

Species distribution models have shown that blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) occur seasonally in high densities in the most biologically productive regions of the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). Satellite telemetry studies have additionally shown that blue whales in the CCE regularly switch between behavioral states consistent with area-restricted searching (ARS) and transiting, indicative of foraging in and moving among prey patches, respectively. However, the relationship between the environmental correlates that serve as a proxy of prey relative to blue whale movement behavior has not been quantitatively assessed.

METHODS

We investigated the association between blue whale behavioral state and environmental predictors in the coastal environments of the CCE using a long-term satellite tracking data set (72 tagged whales; summer-fall months 1998-2008), and predicted the likelihood of ARS behavior at tracked locations using nonparametric multiplicative regression models. The models were built using data from years of cool, productive conditions and validated against years of warm, low-productivity conditions.

RESULTS

The best model contained four predictors: chlorophyll-a, sea surface temperature, and seafloor aspect and depth. This model estimated highest ARS likelihood (> 0.8) in areas with high chlorophyll-a levels (> 0.65 mg/m³), intermediate sea surface temperatures (11.6-17.5 °C), and shallow depths (< 850 m). Overall, the model correctly predicted behavioral state throughout the coastal environments of the CCE, while the validation indicated an ecosystem-wide reduction in ARS likelihood during warm years, especially in the southern portion. For comparison, a spatial coordinates model (longitude × latitude) performed slightly better than the environmental model during warm years, providing further evidence that blue whales exhibit strong foraging site fidelity, even when conditions are not conducive to successful foraging.

CONCLUSIONS

We showed that blue whale behavioral state in the CCE was predictable from environmental correlates and that ARS behavior was most prevalent in regions of known high whale density, likely reflecting where large prey aggregations consistently develop in summer-fall. Our models of whale movement behavior enhanced our understanding of species distribution by further indicating where foraging was more likely, which could be of value in the identification of key regions of importance for endangered species in management considerations. The models also provided evidence that decadal-scale environmental fluctuations can drive shifts in the distribution and foraging success of this blue whale population.