Population dynamics of a scrapie outbreak

Dynamics analysis of strangles with asymptomatic infected horses and long-term subclinical carriers

Strangles is one of the most prevalent horse diseases globally. The infected horses may be asymptomatic and can still carry the infectious pathogen after it recovers, which are named asymptomatic infected horses and long-term subclinical carriers, respectively. Based on these horses, this paper establishes a dynamical model to screen, measure, and model the spread of strangles. The basic reproduction number $ \mathcal{R}_0 $ is computed through a next generation matrix method. By constructing Lyapunov functions, we concluded that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if $ \mathcal{R}_0 < 1 $, and the endemic equilibrium exits uniquely and is globally asymptotically stable if $ \mathcal{R}_0 > 1 $. For example, while studying a strangles outbreak of a horse farm in England in 2012, we computed an $ \mathcal{R}_0 = 0.8416 $ of this outbreak by data fitting. We further conducted a parameter sensitivity analysis of $ \mathcal{R}_0 $ and the final size by numerical simulations. The results show that the asymptomatic horses mainly influence the final size of this outbreak and that long-term carriers are connected to an increased recurrence of strangles. Moreover, in terms of the three control measures implemented to control strangles(i.e., vaccination, implementing screening regularly and isolating symptomatic horses), the result shows that screening is the most effective measurement, followed by vaccination and isolation, which can provide effective guidance for horse management.

Archival search for historical atypical scrapie in sheep reveals evidence for mixed infections

Natural scrapie in sheep occurs in classical and atypical forms, which may be distinguished on the basis of the associated neuropathology and properties of the disease-associated prion protein on Western blots. First detected in 1998, atypical scrapie is known to have occurred in UK sheep since the 1980s. However, its aetiology remains unclear and it is often considered as a sporadic, non-contagious disease unlike classical scrapie which is naturally transmissible. Although atypical scrapie tends to occur in sheep of prion protein (PRNP) genotypes that are different from those found predominantly in classical scrapie, there is some overlap so that there are genotypes in which both scrapie forms can occur. In this search for early atypical scrapie cases, we made use of an archive of fixed and frozen sheep samples, from both scrapie-affected and healthy animals (∼1850 individuals), dating back to the 1960s. Using a selection process based primarily on PRNP genotyping, but also on contemporaneous records of unusual clinical signs or pathology, candidate sheep samples were screened by Western blot, immunohistochemistry and strain-typing methods using tg338 mice. We identified, from early time points in the archive, three atypical scrapie cases, including one sheep which died in 1972 and two which showed evidence of mixed infection with classical scrapie. Cases with both forms of scrapie in the same animal as recognizable entities suggest that mixed infections have been around for a long time and may potentially contribute to the variety of scrapie strains.

The evolution of the prevalence of classical scrapie in sheep in Great Britain using surveillance data between 2005 and 2012

After the decline of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in Great Britain (GB), scrapie remains the most prevalent animal Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy (TSE) present in GB. A number of control measures have been implemented for classical scrapie, and since 2005 there has been a large reduction in the number of observed cases. The objective of this study is to estimate two measures of disease frequency using up to date surveillance data collected during and after the implementation of different control measures established since 2004, and breeding for resistance schemes that ran from 2001 until 2009. This would enable an assessment of the effectiveness of both the breeding for resistance programme and the compulsory eradication measures in reducing the prevalence of scrapie in GB. Evaluation of the sensitivity of the rapid post-mortem test for scrapie indicated that it detected scrapie in the last 25% of the incubation period. A back-calculation model was developed to estimate the prevalence of infection at animal and flock-level. The results of the model indicated a mean drop of infection prevalence of 31% each year, leading to a 90% drop in infection prevalence between 2005, with an estimate of 5737 infected sheep in GB in 2012. The risks of classical scrapie infection in animals with genotypes of National Scrapie Plan Types I-IV (all other genotypes), relative to Type V (all genotypes containing V136 R154 Q171 and not A136 R154 R171), were estimated to be: 0, 0.0008, 0.07, and 0.21 respectively. The model estimated a very low rate of reporting of clinical suspects and a large decline from 2007 of the probability of a sheep being reported as a clinical suspect. The model also estimated that the expected number of sheep holdings with classical scrapie in 2012 was 215 (95% confidence interval: 33-437), out of a total of approximately 72,000 sheep holdings in GB. Model estimates indicate that the prevalence in 2012 has dropped to 10% of that in 2005, showing the effectiveness of the control measures. It also shows a bias in the destination of infected animals, with the majority of infected animals being detected in the fallen stock surveillance stream, and an extremely low proportion of animals detected as clinical suspects; this is very important in terms of the design of surveillance schemes for classical scrapie.

A Bayesian framework to assess the potential for controlling classical scrapie in sheep flocks using a live diagnostic test

Current strategies to control classical scrapie remove animals at risk of scrapie rather than those known to be infected with the scrapie agent. Advances in diagnostic tests, however, suggest that a more targeted approach involving the application of a rapid live test may be feasible in future. Here we consider the use of two diagnostic tests: recto-anal mucosa-associated lymphatic tissue (RAMALT) biopsies; and a blood-based assay. To assess their impact we developed a stochastic age- and prion protein (PrP) genotype-structured model for the dynamics of scrapie within a sheep flock. Parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework to facilitate integration of a number of disparate datasets and to allow parameter uncertainty to be incorporated in model predictions. In small flocks a control strategy based on removal of clinical cases was sufficient to control disease and more stringent measures (including the use of a live diagnostic test) did not significantly reduce outbreak size or duration. In medium or large flocks strategies in which a large proportion of animals are tested with either live diagnostic test significantly reduced outbreak size, but not always duration, compared with removal of clinical cases. However, the current Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme (CSFS) significantly reduced outbreak size and duration compared with both removal of clinical cases and all strategies using a live diagnostic test. Accordingly, under the assumptions made in the present study there is little benefit from implementing a control strategy which makes use of a live diagnostic test.

Susceptibility of young sheep to oral infection with bovine spongiform encephalopathy decreases significantly after weaning

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) (or prion disease) that is readily transmissible to sheep by experimental infection and has the shortest incubation period in animals with the ARQ/ARQ PRNP genotype (at codons 136, 154, and 171). Because it is possible that sheep in the United Kingdom could have been infected with BSE by being fed contaminated meat and bone meal supplements at the same time as cattle, there is considerable interest in the responses of sheep to BSE inoculation. Epidemiological evidence suggests that very young individuals are more susceptible to TSE infection; however, this has never been properly tested in sheep. In the present study, low doses of BSE were fed to lambs of a range of ages (~24 h, 2 to 3 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months) and adult sheep. The incidence of clinical BSE disease after inoculation was high in unweaned lambs (~24 h and 2 to 3 weeks old) but much lower in older weaned animals The incubation period was also found to be influenced by the genotype at codon 141 of the PRNP gene, as lambs that were LF heterozygotes had a longer mean incubation period than those that were homozygotes of either type. The results suggest that sheep in the United Kingdom would have been at high risk of BSE infection only if neonatal animals had inadvertently ingested contaminated supplementary foodstuffs.

Breeding with resistant rams leads to rapid control of classical scrapie in affected sheep flocks

Susceptibility to scrapie, a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in sheep, is modulated by the genetic make-up of the sheep. Scrapie control policies, based on selecting animals of resistant genotype for breeding, have recently been adopted by the Netherlands and other European countries. Here we assess the effectiveness of a breeding programme based on selecting rams of resistant genotype to obtain outbreak control in classical scrapie-affected sheep flocks under field conditions. In six commercially-run flocks following this breeding strategy, we used genotyping to monitor the genotype distribution, and tonsil biopsies and post-mortem analyses to monitor the occurrence of scrapie infection. The farmers were not informed about the monitoring results until the end of the study period of six years. We used a mathematical model of scrapie transmission to analyze the monitoring data and found that where the breeding scheme was consistently applied, outbreak control was obtained after at most four years. Our results also show that classical scrapie control can be obtained before the frequency of non-resistant animals is reduced to zero in the flock. This suggests that control at the national scale can be obtained without a loss of genetic polymorphisms from any of the sheep breeds.

The role of mathematical modelling in understanding the epidemiology and control of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies: a review

To deal with the incompleteness of observations and disentangle the complexities of transmission much use has been made of mathematical modelling when investigating the epidemiology of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) and, in particular, scrapie. Importantly, these modelling approaches allow the incidence of clinical disease to be related to the underlying prevalence of infection, thereby overcoming one of the major difficulties when studying these diseases. Models have been used to investigate the epidemiology of scrapie within individual flocks and at a regional level; to assess the efficacy of different control strategies, especially selective breeding programmes based on prion protein (PrP) genotype; to interpret the results of scrapie surveillance; and to inform the design of surveillance programmes. Furthermore, mathematical modelling has played an important role when assessing the risk to human health posed by the possible presence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in sheep. Here, we review the various approaches that have been taken when developing and analysing mathematical models for the epidemiology and control of sheep TSE and assess their impact on our understanding of these diseases. We also identify areas that require further work, discuss future challenges and identify data gaps.

Implications of conflicting associations of the prion protein (PrP) gene with scrapie susceptibility and fitness on the persistence of scrapie

BACKGROUND

Existing mathematical models for scrapie dynamics in sheep populations assume that the PrP gene is only associated with scrapie susceptibility and with no other fitness related traits. This assumption contrasts recent findings of PrP gene associations with post-natal lamb survival in scrapie free Scottish Blackface populations. Lambs with scrapie resistant genotypes were found to have significantly lower survival rates than those with susceptible genotypes. The present study aimed to investigate how these conflicting PrP gene associations may affect the dynamic patterns of PrP haplotype frequencies and disease prevalence.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A deterministic mathematical model was developed to explore how the associations between PrP genotype and both scrapie susceptibility and postnatal lamb mortality affect the prevalence of scrapie and the associated change in PrP gene frequencies in a closed flock of sheep. The model incorporates empirical evidence on epidemiological and biological characteristics of scrapie and on mortality rates induced by causes other than scrapie. The model results indicate that unfavorable associations of the scrapie resistant PrP haplotypes with post-natal lamb mortality, if sufficiently strong, can increase scrapie prevalence during an epidemic, and result in scrapie persisting in the population. The range of model parameters, for which such effects were observed, is realistic but relatively narrow.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The results of the present model suggest that for most parameter combinations an unfavourable association between PrP genotype and post-natal lamb mortality does not greatly alter the dynamics of scrapie and, hence, would not have an adverse impact on a breeding programme. There were, however, a range of scenarios, narrow, but realistic, in which such an unfavourable association resulted in an increased prevalence and in the persistence of infection. Consequently, associations between PrP genotypes and fitness traits should be taken into account when designing future models and breeding programmes.

Repetitive immunization enhances the susceptibility of mice to peripherally administered prions

The susceptibility of humans and animals to prion infections is determined by the virulence of the infectious agent, by genetic modifiers, and by hitherto unknown host and environmental risk factors. While little is known about the latter two, the activation state of the immune system was surmised to influence prion susceptibility. Here we administered prions to mice that were repeatedly immunized by two initial injections of CpG oligodeoxynucleotides followed by repeated injections of bovine serum albumin/alum. Immunization greatly reduced the required dosage of peripherally administered prion inoculum necessary to induce scrapie in 50% of mice. No difference in susceptibility was observed following intracerebral prion challenge. Due to its profound impact onto scrapie susceptibility, the host immune status may determine disease penetrance after low-dose prion exposure, including those that may give rise to iatrogenic and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.

Experimental oral transmission of United States origin scrapie to neonatal sheep

Scrapie, a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE), is a naturally occurring fatal neurodegenerative disease of sheep and goats. The current study documents incubation periods, pathologic findings, and distribution of abnormal prion proteins (PrP(Sc)) by immunohistochemistry and Western blot in tissues of genetically susceptible and resistant neonatal lambs inoculated with pooled brain homogenates from 13 U.S. origin scrapie-affected ewes. Nine Suffolk lambs with genotypes AA/RR/QQ (n = 5) and AA/RR/QR (n = 4) at codons 136, 154, and 171, respectively) were orally inoculated, within 12 hr of birth, with 1 ml of a 10% (w/v) brain homogenate prepared from scrapie-affected sheep brains. Inoculated animals were euthanized when advanced clinical signs of scrapie were observed. All QQ sheep developed clinical signs of scrapie, with a mean survival time of 24 months. Spongiform lesions in the brains and PrP(Sc) deposits in the central nervous system and lymphoid tissues were present in these sheep. None of the QR sheep succumbed to the disease. A previous study that used a larger volume (30 ml of 10% brain suspension) of the same inoculum in 4-month-old Suffolk lambs of susceptible genotype documented longer survival periods (average 32 months), and only 5 of 9 inoculated sheep developed scrapie. Findings of this study suggest that orally exposed neonatal lambs of a susceptible (QQ) genotype exhibit a higher attack rate and shorter incubation period than older (4-month-old) lambs exposed to a larger dose (30x) of the same inoculum.

Within-holding prevalence of sheep classical scrapie in Great Britain

Background

Data from the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme (CSFS), part of the compulsory eradication measures for the control of scrapie in the EU, have been used to estimate the within-holding prevalence of classical scrapie in Great Britain (GB). Specifically data from one of the testing routes within the CSFS have been used; the initial cull (IC), whereby two options can be applied: the whole flock cull option by which the entire flock is depopulated, and the genotyping and cull of certain genotypes.

Results

Between April 2005 and September 2007, 25,316 suitable samples, submitted from 411 flocks in 213 scrapie-affected holdings in Great Britain, were tested for scrapie. The predicted within-holding prevalence for the initial cull was 0.65% (95% CI: 0.55–0.75). For the whole cull option was 0.47% (95% CI: 0.32–0.68) and for the genotype and cull or mixed option (both options applied in different flocks of the same holding), the predicted within-holding prevalence was 0.7% (95% CI: 0.6–0.83). There were no significant differences in the within-flock prevalence between countries (England, Scotland and Wales) or between CSFS holdings by the surveillance stream that detected the index case. The number of CSFS flocks on a holding did not affect the overall within-holding prevalence of classical scrapie.

Conclusion

These estimates are important in the discussion of the epidemiological implications of the current EU testing programme of scrapie-affected flocks and to inform epidemiological and mathematical models. Furthermore, these estimates may provide baseline data to assist the design of future surveillance activities and control policies with the aim to increase their efficiency.

Transmission and detection of prions in feces

In chronic wasting disease (CWD) in cervids and in scrapie in sheep, prions appear to be transmitted horizontally. Oral exposure to prion-tainted blood, urine, saliva, and feces has been suggested as the mode of transmission of CWD and scrapie among herbivores susceptible to these prion diseases. To explore the transmission of prions through feces, uninoculated Syrian hamsters (SHas) were cohabitated with or exposed to the bedding of SHas orally infected with Sc237 prions. Incubation times of 140 days and a rate of prion infection of 80%-100% among exposed animals suggested transmission by feces, probably via coprophagy. We measured the disease-causing isoform of the prion protein (PrP(Sc)) in feces by use of the conformation-dependent immunoassay, and we titrated the irradiated feces intracerebrally in transgenic mice that overexpressed SHa prion protein (SHaPrP). Fecal samples collected from infected SHas in the first 7 days after oral challenge harbored 60 ng/g PrP(Sc) and prion titers of approximately 10(6.6) ID(50)/g. Excretion of infectious prions continued at lower levels throughout the asymptomatic phase of the incubation period, most likely by the shedding of prions from infected Peyer patches. Our findings suggest that horizontal transmission of disease among herbivores may occur through the consumption of feces or foodstuff tainted with prions from feces of CWD-infected cervids and scrapie-infected sheep.

Quantification of Peyer's patches in Cheviot sheep for future scrapie pathogenesis studies

Peyer's patches (PPs) are the most probable sites of intestinal uptake of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) agent. The amount of PP tissue varies considerably between different age groups of individuals, and whether this variation is related to susceptibility to TSE infection raises an intriguing possibility. The purpose of this study was to determine the surface area of PP tissue and the number of associated lymphoid follicles in different age groups of Neuropathogenesis Unit (NPU) Cheviot sheep. Terminal ilea were obtained from 33 sheep of different ages. Samples of ileal tissue were collected for immunocytochemistry and immunolabelled for prion protein (PrP). Specimens were then fixed in acetic acid, stained with methylene blue and transilluminated. Image analysis software was used to calculate the area of intestinal and PP tissue. The number of associated lymphoid follicles was determined using a dissecting microscope. Results showed a marked fall in surface area of PP tissue and lymphoid follicle density around puberty (about 8-9 months of age in NPU Cheviot sheep) and both measures remained low throughout adulthood. Using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, r(s), these two measures were found to be closely correlated (r(s)=0.899, n=33, P<0.0001). There was also a significant (negative) correlation between age and the two respective measures (surface area of PP tissue versus age, r(s)=-0.879 (n=33, P<0.0001); lymphoid follicle density versus age r(s)=-0.943 (n=33, P<0.0001). Immunolabelling for PrP was observed primarily in the light zone of lymphoid follicles. Results obtained from this study are useful for future oral pathogenesis studies of the NPU Cheviot flock. They may also offer a possible biological explanation for the apparent age-susceptibility relationship observed in natural cases of TSEs and might help to explain the young age-distribution of cases.

Advanced survival models for risk-factor analysis in scrapie

Because of the confounding effects of long incubation duration and flock management, accurate epidemiological studies of scrapie outbreaks are difficult to carry out. In this study, 641 Manech red-faced sheep from six scrapie-affected field flocks in Pyrénées Atlantiques, France, were monitored for clinical scrapie over a 6–9 year period. Over this period, 170 scrapie clinical cases were recorded and half of the culled animals were submitted for post-mortem transmissible spongiform encephalopathy diagnosis to assess their infectious status. Collected data were analysed using a ‘mixture cure model’ approach, which allowed for the discriminating effect of PrP genotype and flock origin on incidence and incubation period. Simulations were performed to evaluate the applicability of such a statistical model to the collected data. As expected, ARR heterozygote sheep were less at risk of becoming infected than ARQ/ARQ individuals and had a greater age at clinical onset. Conversely, when compared with ARQ/ARQ, the VRQ haplotype was associated with an increased infection risk, but not a shorter incubation period. Considering the flock effect, we observed that a high incidence rate was not associated with shorter incubation periods and that the incubation period could be significantly different in flocks harbouring similar infection risks. These results strongly support the conclusion that other parameters, such as the nature of the agent or flock management, could interfere with epidemiological dynamics of the infection in scrapie-affected flocks.

The time-course of a scrapie outbreak

Background

Because the incubation period of scrapie has a strong host genetic component and a dose-response relationship, it is possible that changes will occur during an outbreak, especially in the genotypes of cases, age-at-onset of disease and, perhaps, the clinical signs displayed. We investigated these factors for a large outbreak of natural scrapie, which yielded sufficient data to detect temporal trends.

Results

Cases occurred mostly in two genotypes, VRQ/VRQ and VRQ/ARQ, with those early in the outbreak more likely to be of the VRQ/VRQ genotype. As the epidemic progressed, the age-at-onset of disease increased, which reflected changes in the genotypes of cases rather than changes in the age-at-onset within genotypes. Clinical signs of cases changed over the course of the outbreak. As the epidemic progressed VRQ/VRQ and VRQ/ARQ sheep were more likely to be reported with behavioural changes, while VRQ/VRQ sheep only were less likely to be reported with loss of condition.

Conclusion

This study of one of the largest scrapie outbreaks in the UK allowed investigation of the effect of PrP genotype on other epidemiological parameters. Our analysis indicated that, although age-at-onset and clinical signs changed over time, the observed changes were largely, but not exclusively, driven by the time course of the PrP genotypes of cases.

Comparative evidence for a link between Peyer's patch development and susceptibility to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies

Background

Epidemiological analyses indicate that the age distribution of natural cases of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) reflect age-related risk of infection, however, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Using a comparative approach, we tested the hypothesis that, there is a significant correlation between risk of infection for scrapie, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and variant CJD (vCJD), and the development of lymphoid tissue in the gut.

Methods

Using anatomical data and estimates of risk of infection in mathematical models (which included results from previously published studies) for sheep, cattle and humans, we calculated the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, r_s, between available measures of Peyer's patch (PP) development and the estimated risk of infection for an individual of the corresponding age.

Results

There was a significant correlation between the measures of PP development and the estimated risk of TSE infection; the two age-related distributions peaked in the same age groups. This result was obtained for each of the three host species: for sheep, surface area of ileal PP tissue vs risk of infection, r_s = 0.913 (n = 19, P < 0.001), and lymphoid follicle density vs risk of infection, r_s = 0.933 (n = 19, P < 0.001); for cattle, weight of PP tissue vs risk of infection, r_s = 0.693 (n = 94, P < 0.001); and for humans, number of PPs vs risk of infection, r_s = 0.384 (n = 46, P = 0.008). In addition, when changes in exposure associated with BSE-contaminated meat were accounted for, the two age-related patterns for humans remained concordant: r_s = 0.360 (n = 46, P = 0.014).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that, for sheep, cattle and humans alike there is an association between PP development (or a correlate of PP development) and susceptibility to natural TSE infection. This association may explain changes in susceptibility with host age, and differences in the age-susceptibility relationship between host species.

Modelling the spread of scrapie in a sheep flock: evidence for increased transmission during lambing seasons

Presence of scrapie infectivity in the placenta suggests the possibility of increased transmission of scrapie during the lambing season. This hypothesis was explored here using a mathematical model of scrapie transmission dynamics which has previously been successfully used to study several scrapie outbreaks in Scottish sheep flocks. It was applied here to the Langlade experimental sheep flock (INRA Toulouse, France), in which a natural scrapie epidemic started in 1993. Extensive data were available, including pedigree, scrapie histopathological diagnoses and PrP genotypes. Detailed simulations of the scrapie outbreak reveal that the observed patterns of seasonality in incidence can not be accounted for by seasonality in demography alone and provide strong support for the hypothesis of increased transmission during lambing. Observations from several other scrapie outbreaks also showing seasonal incidence patterns support these conclusions.

Breeding programmes for TSE resistance in British sheep. II. Assessing the impact on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie

By establishing a breeding programme for transmissible spongiform encephalopathie (TSE) resistance, there are plans to eradicate sheep TSEs from member states of the European Union (EU). In this paper, we used a simple age- and genotype-structured model to assess the impact of four breeding strategies on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie in the British sheep flock. The strategies ranged from the minimum EU requirements to compulsory implementation of the current National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain (NSP). All four strategies were predicted to reduce the prevalence and incidence of disease, though there was likely to be a delay of several years between the implementation of a breeding programme and the reduction in incidence. There were differences in the efficacy of the strategies, with the most stringent resulting in the greatest reduction in prevalence and incidence. However, the magnitude of the differences was not great, largely because all four strategies eliminated the VRQ allele, which is associated with a markedly higher risk of disease than any of the other alleles. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the model results were robust to selection bias when estimating the risk of infection; and that the efficacy of a breeding programme was unlikely to be compromised, unless the risk of infection is substantially underestimated by data on clinical disease.

A modelling framework to describe the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks in Great Britain

My aim was to develop a stochastic, spatial model describing the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks in Great Britain; I wanted a model, which could subsequently be used to assess the efficacy of different control strategies. The structure of the model reflects the demography of the British sheep flock, including a description of the contact structure between flocks. The dynamics of scrapie were incorporated through two probabilities associated with each flock: of acquiring infection and of experiencing a within-flock outbreak following exposure. The acquisition of infection depends on whether or not a flock buys-in sheep and, if it does, whether or not it trades with an affected flock. Once a flock is exposed, the probability of a within-flock outbreak occurring and its duration depend on the basic reproductive number, the prion-protein (PrP) genotype profile and the flock size. The model was validated using regional data from two postal surveys conducted in 1998 and 2002, which demonstrated that the model captures the spatial dynamics of scrapie (at least at a regional level). Moreover, the predicted distribution for the duration of a within-flock outbreak reflects the duration of outbreaks reported in the literature. Using the model to predict long-term trends in the proportion of affected flocks suggested that, even without control measures beyond the removal of animals with clinical signs, scrapie ultimately will disappear from the national flock, though it is likely to be decades before the disease is eliminated. However, there were scenarios consistent with the available data which suggested that scrapie could remain endemic within the British sheep flock. Consequently, it is essential to take this uncertainty in the long-term dynamics of scrapie into account when considering the efficacy of control strategies. Although control strategies were not explicitly examined, the model suggests two aspects important for control: larger flocks remain affected for longer and provide infection for other, smaller flocks and animal movements must be traceable.

Polygenic variation and transmission factors involved in the resistance/susceptibility to scrapie in a Romanov flock

Data from 4049 Romanov sheep belonging to a flock affected by natural scrapie were analysed by using survival-analysis techniques. Failure time was defined as the period of time between first exposure to infection and the date that animals left the flock with scrapie signs. Four hundred and forty-seven sheep were identified as ‘scrapie animals’. Several models, including level of exposure as a time-dependent effect, PrP genotype, sex, age at first exposure, litter size and factors related to vertical transmission, were tested. The best model was extended to a sire–dam frailty model, in order to estimate the polygenic variation in addition to that in the Prnp gene. A combined effect of rearing type and the dam's disease status was detected. Thus, only sheep with a low degree of exposure to infection as lambs (lambs reared artificially and born out of a healthy dam) showed less risk than others. Animals first exposed to infection at older ages seemed to be less susceptible to scrapie. In this Romanov population, new genotypes (AHQ/AHQ, AHQ/VRQ, ARR/VRQ and ARR/ARQ) were associated with risk, suggesting the effect of genotypes on the incubation period of animals. Polygenic variance was responsible for 21 % of the total genetic variability that was related to susceptibility to scrapie. Therefore, the genetic susceptibility to scrapie may be explained by the joint effect of point mutations at the Prnp major gene and a number of genes that modulate its effect.

Monte Carlo simulation of surveillance strategies for scrapie in Norwegian sheep

Our aim was to compare the efficiency of different surveillance strategies for detecting scrapie-infected sheep flocks in the Norwegian population using simulation modelling. The dynamic Monte Carlo simulation model has the flock as the unit. The input parameters include properties of the sheep population (number of flocks, flock size, age distribution, reasons for culling, breeds, prion protein-allele distribution); properties of scrapie (genotype-dependent infection rate and incubation periods, and age- and genotype-dependent prevalence of scrapie); properties of the surveillance strategy (selection of sheep for examination, period in which infected sheep are detectable, and properties of the diagnostic tests). For simplification, the prion protein-alleles were grouped into three allele groups: VRQ, ARR, and ARQ' (ARQ' represents ARQ, ARH and AHQ). Through either abattoir surveillance or surveillance of fallen stock, <or=9% of scrapie flocks were detected. The necessary sample size for detecting any particular number of scrapie flocks was considerably lower using surveillance of fallen stock than abattoir surveillance. After increasing the diagnostic method's sensitivity, only the efficiency of abattoir surveillance increased. The prion protein-genotypes ARQ'/ARQ', VRQ/ARQ' and VRQ/VRQ were overrepresented both in the sampled infected sheep and in the detected sheep. Sheep with ARQ'/ARQ' constituted >70% of the detected sheep (compared to 33% in the underlying population). The model output was sensitive to the susceptibility of infection for the genotype ARQ'/ARQ'. The effect was large for abattoir surveillance (increased susceptibility increased the efficiency of abattoir surveillance).

Epidemiological implications of the susceptibility to BSE of putatively resistant sheep

The experimental infection of sheep with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) by the oral route and the likelihood that sheep were fed BSE-infected meat and bone meal has led to extensive speculation as to whether or not sheep are naturally infected with BSE. In response, the UK government has initiated the National Scrapie Plan (NSP), an ambitious £120 million per year project to create a BSE- and scrapie-resistant national sheep flock, by selectively breeding for a genotype of sheep believed to be resistant to both diseases. This genotype has recently been shown to be susceptible to BSE by intracerebral (i.c.) inoculation. Should these sheep be sufficiently susceptible to BSE via natural transmission, the NSP might fail. Here we estimate the susceptibility of this genotype to horizontal (sheep-to-sheep) transmission of BSE by comparison with more extensive oral and i.c. exposure data for other sheep genotypes. We show that a previous estimate of the risk of BSE transmission to sheep via the feedborne route remains robust. However, using a mathematical model for the within-flock transmission of BSE, we show that, while the best estimate indicates that the NSP should be successful, current data cannot exclude the failure of the NSP.

Prevalence of scrapie infection in Great Britain: interpreting the results of the 1997-1998 abattoir survey

An accurate estimate of the prevalence of scrapie infection in the Great Britain (GB) sheep flock is essential when assessing any potential risk to human health through exposure to sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs). One method for assessing the prevalence is to sample sheep intended for human consumption using a diagnostic test capable of detecting infected animals prior to the onset of clinical signs. An abattoir survey conducted in Great Britain in 1997-1998 tested brain samples from 2809 apparently healthy sheep of which none was found to be positive for scrapie by histopathology or immunohistochemistry (IHC) although 10 were positive for scrapie-associated fibrils (SAF). Subsequently, the tonsils from a subset of the animals sampled were examined using IHC, one of which tested positive. To interpret these results we use a likelihood-based approach, which accounts for the variation in the prevalence of infection with age and test sensitivity and specificity with stage of infection. Combining the results for all of the diagnostic tests yields an estimate of the prevalence of scrapie infection in the GB sheep flock of 0.22% (95% confidence interval: 0.01-0.97%). Moreover, our analysis suggests that all of the diagnostic tests used are very specific (greater than 99%). Indeed, only SAF detection yields a specificity estimate of less than 100%, which helps to account for the high number of samples found to be positive for SAF.

Scrapie epidemic in a fully PrP-genotyped sheep flock

In scrapie-affected sheep flocks, host PrP genotype plays a vital role in determining which sheep will succumb to scrapie and the incubation period. Consequently, within-flock scrapie dynamics is best understood within the context of the genotype profile of the flock. Here we describe a 17 month epidemic of scrapie in a commercially farmed flock of 230 genotyped Texel sheep. At the start of the study, 70% of the sheep were of three genotypes only: ARR/ARQ, ARH/ARQ and ARQ/ARQ. Only 15% of sheep encoded the disease-associated VRQ allele and only a single sheep (0.4%) was of the most susceptible VRQ/VRQ genotype. For susceptible genotypes there was a marked deficit (P<0.025) of older animals (> or =3 years), implying that some cases of scrapie had occurred previously. In the ensuing 17 months, 18 sheep of known genotype were confirmed positive for the disease: seven VRQ/ARQ, six VRQ/ARH, two VRQ/ARR, three ARQ/ARQ. Median ages at death were 2.7, 2.8, 4.2 and 3.8 years respectively. Mortality rates were 55, 86, 13 and 3% respectively. Survival analysis revealed a highly significant effect of genotype on survivorship, but no difference between VRQ/ARQ and VRQ/ARH, or between VRQ/ARR and ARQ/ARQ. There was no difference in the survivorship of middle- and older-age cohorts of susceptible sheep. Scrapie risk group (as defined by PrP genotype) was not associated with submission as a scrapie suspect but later found to be negative, or with dying of unknown causes on the farm.