Hot temperatures can force delayed mosquito outbreaks via sequential changes in Aedes aegypti demographic parameters in autocorrelated environments

Community-serving research addressing climate change impacts on vector-borne diseases

The impacts of climate change on vector-borne diseases are uneven across human populations. This pattern reflects the effect of changing environments on the biology of transmission, which is also modulated by social and other inequities. These disparities are also linked to research outcomes that could be translated into tools for transmission reduction, but are not necessarily actionable in the communities where transmission occurs. The transmission of vector-borne diseases could be averted by developing research that is both hypothesis-driven and community-serving for populations affected by climate change, where local communities interact as equal partners with scientists, developing and implementing research projects with the aim of improving community health. In this Personal View, we share five principles that have guided our research practice to serve the needs of communities affected by vector-borne diseases.

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) ecology, biology, behaviour, and implications on arbovirus transmission in Thailand: Review

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Aedes) transmit highly pathogenic viruses such as dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika which can cause life-threatening diseases in humans. They are the most important vectors of arboviruses in Thailand. Their vectorial capacity (VC) is highly complex mainly due to the interplay between biotic and abiotic factors that vary in time and space. A literature survey was conducted to collate and discuss recent research regarding the influence of Aedes vector biology, behaviour, and ecology on arbovirus transmission in Thailand. The survey followed guidelines of preferred reporting items of systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA). All fields, keyword search was conducted in the Web of Science database for the period of 2000-2021. The search yielded 821 records on Ae. aegypti and 293 records on Aedes albopictus, of which 77 were selected for discussion. Genomic studies showed that there is a high genetic variation in Aedes albopictus whereas Ae. aegypti generally shows low genetic variation. Along with genetically unstable arboviruses, the interaction between Aedes and arboviruses is largely regulated by genomic events such as genetic mutations and immune response protein factors. Temperature and precipitation are the major climatic events driving arbovirus transmission. Human exposure risk factors are mainly due to multiple feeding patterns, including endophagy by Aedes albopictus and zoophagic behaviour of Ae. aegypti as well as diverse human-associated breeding sites. Integration of the One Health approach in control interventions is a priority with a rigorous focus on Aedes-arbovirus surveillance as a complementary strategy.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of a Neglected Arboviruses Vector (Armigeres subalbatus) in China

The geographic boundaries of arboviruses continue to expand, posing a major health threat to millions of people around the world. This expansion is related to the availability of effective vectors and suitable habitats. Armigeres subalbatus (Coquillett, 1898), a common and neglected species, is of increasing interest given its potential vector capacity for Zika virus. However, potential distribution patterns and the underlying driving factors of Ar. subalbatus remain unknown. In the current study, detailed maps of their potential distributions were developed under both the current as well as future climate change scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) based on CMIP6 data, employing the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the distribution of the Ar. subalbatus was mainly affected by temperature. Mean diurnal range was the strongest predictor in shaping the distribution of Ar. subalbatus, with an 85.2% contribution rate. By the 2050s and 2070s, Ar. subalbatus will have a broader potential distribution across China. There are two suitable expansion types under climate change in the 2050s and 2070s. The first type is continuous distribution expansion, and the second type is sporadic distribution expansion. Our comprehensive analysis of Ar. subalbatus’s suitable distribution areas shifts under climate change and provides useful and insightful information for developing management strategies for future arboviruses.

Variable coverage in an Autocidal Gravid Ovitrap intervention impacts efficacy of Aedes aegypti control

Control of the arboviral disease vector Aedes aegypti has shown variable levels of efficacy around the globe. We evaluated an Autocidal Gravid Ovitrap (AGO) intervention as a stand-alone control tool for population suppression of A. aegypti in US communities bordering Mexico.We conducted a cluster randomized crossover trial with weekly mosquito surveillance of sentinel households from July 2017 to December 2018. The intervention took place from August to December of both years. Multilevel models (generalized linear and additive mixed models) were used to analyse the changes in population abundance of female A. aegypti.We observed that female populations were being suppressed 77% (2018) and four times lower outdoor female abundance when AGO coverage (number of intervention AGO traps that surrounded a sentinel home) was high (2.7 AGOs/house). However, we also observed that areas with low intervention AGO coverage resulted in no difference (2017) or slightly higher abundance compared to the control. These results suggest that coverage rate might play a critical role on how populations of female A. aegypti are being modulated in the field. The lack of larval source habitat reduction and the short duration of the intervention period might have limited the A. aegypti population suppression observed in this study. Synthesis and applications. The mosquito, A. aegypti, is a public health concern in most tropical and subtropical regions. With the rise of insecticide resistance, the evaluation of non-chemical tools has become pivotal in the fight against arboviral disease transmission. Our study shows that the AGO intervention, as a stand-alone control tool, is limited by its coverage in human settlements. Vector control programmes should consider, that if the target coverage rate is not achieved, measures will be ineffective unless coupled with other control approaches. Although our multilevel modelling was focused on A. aegypti and the AGO, the approach can be applied to other mosquito vector species.

Extreme weather events and dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China: a time-series quasi-binomial distributed lag non-linear model

Dengue transmission is climate-sensitive and permissive conditions regularly cause large outbreaks in Asia-Pacific area. As climate change progresses, extreme weather events such as heatwaves and unusually high rainfall are predicted more intense and frequent, but their impacts on dengue outbreaks remain unclear so far. This paper aimed to investigate the relationship between extreme weather events (i.e., heatwaves, extremely high rainfall and extremely high humidity) and dengue outbreaks in China. We obtained daily number of locally acquired dengue cases and weather factors for Guangzhou, China, for the period 2006-2015. The definition of dengue outbreaks was based on daily number of locally acquired cases above the threshold (i.e., mean + 2SD of daily distribution of dengue cases during peaking period). Heatwave was defined as ≥2 days with temperature ≥ 95th percentile, and extreme rainfall and humidity defined as daily values ≥95th percentile during 2006-2015. A generalized additive model was used to examine the associations between extreme weather events and dengue outbreaks. Results showed that all three extreme weather events were associated with increased risk of dengue outbreaks, with a risk increase of 115-251% around 6 weeks after heatwaves, 173-258% around 6-13 weeks after extremely high rainfall, and 572-587% around 6-13 weeks after extremely high humidity. Each extreme weather event also had good capacity in predicting dengue outbreaks, with the model's sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve all exceeding 86%. This study found that heatwaves, extremely high rainfall, and extremely high humidity could act as potential drivers of dengue outbreaks.

The direct and indirect effects of extreme climate events on insects

Extreme climate events are predicted to increase in the future, which will have significant effects on insect biodiversity. Research into this area has been rapidly expanding, but knowledge gaps still exist. We conducted a review of the literature to provide a synthesis of extreme climate events on insects and identify future areas of research. In our review, we asked the following questions: 1) What are the direct and indirect mechanisms that extreme climate events affect individual insects? 2) What are the effects of extreme climate events on insect populations and demography? 3) What are the implications of the extreme climate events effects on insect communities? Drought was among the most frequently described type of extreme climate event affecting insects, as well as the effects of temperature extremes and extreme temperature variation. Our review explores the factors that determine the sensitivity or resilience to climate extremes for individuals, populations, and communities. We also identify areas of future research to better understand the role of extreme climate events on insects including effects on non-trophic interactions, alteration of population dynamics, and mediation of the functional the trait set of communities. Many insect species are under threat from global change and extreme climate events are a contributing factor. Biologists and policy makers should consider the role of extreme events in their work to mitigate the loss of biodiversity and delivery of ecosystem services by insects.

Extreme weather conditions and dengue outbreak in Guangdong, China: Spatial heterogeneity based on climate variability

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown associations between local weather factors and dengue incidence in tropical and subtropical regions. However, spatial variability in those associations remains unclear and evidence is scarce regarding the effects of weather extremes.

OBJECTIVES

We examined spatial variability in the effects of various weather conditions on the unprecedented dengue outbreak in Guangdong province of China in 2014 and explored how city characteristics modify weather-related risk.

METHODS

A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was used to examine the overall and city-specific associations of dengue incidence with weather conditions including (1) average temperature, temperature variation, and average rainfall; and (2) weather extremes including numbers of days of extremely high temperature and high rainfall (both used 95th percentile as the cut-off). This model was run for cumulative dengue cases during five months from July to November (accounting for 99.8% of all dengue cases). A further analysis based on spatial variability was used to validate the modification effects by economic, demographic and environmental factors.

RESULTS

We found a positive association of dengue incidence with average temperature in seven cities (relative risk (RR) range: 1.032 to 1.153), a positive association with average rainfall in seven cities (RR range: 1.237 to 1.974), and a negative association with temperature variation in four cities (RR range: 0.315 to 0.593). There was an overall positive association of dengue incidence with extremely high temperature (RR:1.054, 95% credible interval (CI): 1.016 to 1.094), without evidence of variation across cities, and an overall positive association of dengue with extremely high rainfall (RR:1.505, 95% CI: 1.096 to 2.080), with seven regions having stronger associations (RR range: 1.237 to 1.418). Greater effects of weather conditions appeared to occur in cities with higher economic level, lower green space coverage and lower elevation.

CONCLUSIONS

Spatially varied effects of weather conditions on dengue outbreaks necessitate area-specific dengue prevention and control measures. Extremes of temperature and rainfall have strong and positive associations with dengue outbreaks.

Effect of Larval Food Availability on Adult Aedes Aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Fitness and Susceptibility to Zika Infection

Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) is a mosquito species of significant medical importance. The use of this vector in research studies usually requires a large number of mosquitoes as well as rearing and maintenance in a laboratory-controlled environment. However, laboratory conditions may be different from field environments, presenting stressful challenges such as low food concentration, especially during larval stages, which may, in turn, impair vector biology. Therefore, we tested herein if larval food availability (0.004, 0.009, 0.020, and 0.070% diets) would affect overall adult insect fitness. We observed slower development in mosquitoes fed a 0.004% diet 15 d post-eclosion (DPE) and shorter mean time in mosquitoes fed a 0.020% diet (7 DPE). Larval diet and adult mosquito weight were positively correlated, and heavier females fed higher larval diets exhibited greater blood feeding capacity and oviposition. In addition, larval diet concentrations led to median adult lifespan variations (male/female in days-0.004%: 30 ± 1.41, 45 ± 1.3; 0.009%: 31.5 ± 1.33, 41 ± 1.43; 0.020%: 26 ± 1.18, 41 ± 1.45; 0.070%: 29 ± 1.07, 44 ± 1.34), reduced tolerance to deltamethrin (1 mg/m2) and changes in detoxification enzyme activities. Moreover, in the larval 0.070% diet, females presented higher Zika susceptibility (plaque-forming unit [PFU]: 1.218 × 106) compared with other diets (0.004%: 1.31 × 105; 0.009%: 2.0 × 105; 0.020%: 1.25 × 105 PFU). Altogether, our study demonstrates that larval diet restriction results not only in larval developmental arrest but also in adult fitness impairment, which must be considered in future assessments.

Exploring the Relationship between Rising Temperatures and the Number of Climate-Related Natural Disasters in China

Warming has strongly influenced the quantity and variability of natural disasters around the globe. This study aims to characterize the varying patterns between rising temperatures and climate-related natural disasters in China from 1951 to 2010. We examined the overall trend in the patterns of an 11-year cycle, and climate-related natural disaster responses to periods of rising and dropping temperature. We used Morlet wavelet analysis to determine the length of a temperature cycle period, and the arc elasticity coefficient to assess the number of climate-related natural disasters in response to the changing temperature. We found that: (1) the overall relationship between temperature and the number of climate-related natural disasters was positive; (2) however, on the cycle level, the pattern of climate-related natural disasters was found to be independent of temperature variation; (3) on the rise-drop level, temperature increases were associated with declines in the number of climate-related natural disasters. Moreover, as temperature decreased, the number of climate-related natural disasters increased substantially, such that temperature had a more considerable influence on the quantity of climate-related natural disasters during the temperature-drop period. Findings in this study can help enhance the dissemination of warning and mitigation efforts to combat natural disasters in the changing climate.

Modeling the association between Aedes aegypti ovitrap egg counts, multi-scale remotely sensed environmental data and arboviral cases at Puntarenas, Costa Rica (2017–2018)

Problems with vector surveillance are a major barrier for the effective control of vector-borne disease transmission through Latin America. Here, we present results from a 80-week longitudinal study where Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) ovitraps were monitored weekly at 92 locations in Puntarenas, a coastal city in Costa Rica with syndemic Zika, chikungunya and dengue transmission. We used separate models to investigate the association of either Ae. aegypti-borne arboviral cases or Ae. aegypti egg counts with remotely sensed environmental variables. We also evaluated whether Ae. aegypti-borne arboviral cases were associated with Ae. aegypti egg counts. Using cross-correlation and time series modeling, we found that arboviral cases were not significantly associated with Ae. aegypti egg counts. Through model selection we found that cases had a non-linear response to multi-scale (1-km and 30-m resolution) measurements of temperature standard deviation (SD) with a lag of up to 4 weeks, while simultaneously increasing with finely-grained NDVI (30-m resolution). Meanwhile, median ovitrap Ae. aegypti egg counts increased, and respectively decreased, with temperature SD (1-km resolution) and EVI (30-m resolution) with a lag of 6 weeks. A synchrony analysis showed that egg counts had a travelling wave pattern, with synchrony showing cyclic changes with distance, a pattern not observed in remotely sensed data with 30-m and 10-m resolution. Spatially, using generalized additive models, we found that eggs were more abundant at locations with higher temperatures and where EVI was leptokurtic during the study period. Our results suggest that, in Puntarenas, remotely sensed environmental variables are associated with both Ae. aegypti-borne arbovirus transmission and Ae. aegypti egg counts from ovitraps.

•

We sampled Ae. aegypti eggs using ovitraps for 80 weeks in Puntarenas, Costa Rica.

•

We were able to correlate Ae. aegypti egg-counts and arboviral cases with remotely sensed data.

•

Egg counts and arboviral cases were correlated with temperature and vegetation indices.

•

Arboviral cases were not associated with egg counts.

Analysis of the transcription of genes encoding heat shock proteins (hsp) in Aedes aegypti Linnaeus, 1762 (Diptera: Culicidae), maintained under climatic conditions provided by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change) for the year 2100

Human actions intensify the greenhouse effect, aggravating climate changes in the Amazon and elsewhere in the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) foresees a global increase of up to 4.5 °C and 850 ppm CO₂ (above current levels) by 2100. This will impact the biology of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, vector of Dengue, Zika, urban Yellow Fever and Chikungunya. Heat shock proteins are associated with adaptations to anthropic environments and the interaction of some viruses with the vector. The transcription of the hsp26, hsp83 and hsc70 genes of an A. aegypti population, maintained for more than forty-eight generations, in the Current, Intermediate and Extreme climatic scenario predicted by the IPCC was evaluated with qPCR. In females, highest levels of hsp26, hsp83 and hsc70 expression occurred in the Intermediate scenario, while in males, levels were high only for hsp26 gene in Current and Extreme scenarios. Expression of hsp83 and hsc70 genes in males was low under all climatic scenarios, while in the Extreme scenario females had lower expression than in the Current scenario. The data suggest compensatory or adaptive processes acting on heat shock proteins, which can lead to changes in the mosquito's biology, altering vectorial competence.

Aedes albopictus and Aedes flavopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) pre-imaginal abundance patterns are associated with different environmental factors along an altitudinal gradient

Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) is a major global invasive mosquito species that, in Japan, co-occurs with Aedes (Stegomyia) flavopictus Yamada, a closely related species recently intercepted in Europe. Here, we present results of a detailed 25-month long study where we biweekly sampled pupae and fourth instar larvae of these two species from ovitraps set along Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan. This setting allowed us to ask whether these species had different responses to changes in environmental variables along the altitudinal gradient of an urban hill. We found that spatially Ae. albopictus abundance decreased, while Ae. flavopictus abundance increased, the further away from urban land. Ae. flavopictus also was more abundant than Ae. albopictus in locations with homogenous vegetation growth with a high mean Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), platykurtic EVI, and low SD in canopy cover, while Ae. albopictus was more abundant than Ae. flavopictus in areas with more variable (high SD) canopy cover. Moreover, Ae. flavopictus abundance negatively impacted the spatial abundance of Ae. albopictus. Temporally we found that Ae. flavopictus was more likely to be present in Mt. Konpira at lower temperatures than Ae. albopictus. Our results suggest that spatial and temporal abundance patterns of these two mosquito species are partially driven by their different response to environmental factors.

Synchrony of globally invasive Aedes spp. immature mosquitoes along an urban altitudinal gradient in their native range

Mosquito-borne infections often have concerted peaks, or are synchronous, across landscapes. This phenomenon might be driven by vector responses to similar environmental conditions that synchronize their abundance. While adult mosquito populations can be synchronous over spatial scales ranging from a few meters to a few kilometers, little to nothing is known about immature mosquito synchrony, including its relationship with mosquito colonization and persistence in larval habitats. Here, we present results from a 2-yearlong synchrony study in co-occurring populations of Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse), Aedes (Stegomyia) flavopictus Yamada and Aedes (Finlaya) japonicus japonicus (Theobald), three invasive mosquito species, along an urban altitudinal gradient in Japan. We found that Ae. albopictus was asynchronous while Ae. flavopictus and Ae. j. japonicus had synchrony that, respectively, tracked geographic and altitudinal patterns of temperature correlation. Spatially, Ae. albopictus was more persistent at hotter locations near urban land use, while Ae. j. japonicus and Ae. flavopictus increasingly persisted farther away from urban land. Temporally, Ae. albopicus and Ae. flavopictus decreased the proportion of colonized habitats following variable rainfall, while Ae. j. japonicus increased with vegetation growth and leptokurtic temperatures. Our results support the hypothesis that immature mosquito synchrony is autonomous from dispersal and driven by common environmental conditions.

Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning

Background

Many studies have shown associations between rising temperatures, El Niño events and dengue incidence, but the effect of sustained periods of extreme high temperatures (i.e., heatwaves) on dengue outbreaks has not yet been investigated. This study aimed to compare the short-term temperature-dengue associations during different dengue outbreak periods, estimate the dengue cases attributable to temperature, and ascertain if there was an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Methodology/Principal findings

Dengue outbreaks were assigned to one of three categories (small, medium and large) based on the 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of distribution of weekly dengue cases during 2008–2016. Using a generalised linear regression model with a negative binomial link that controlled for temporal trends, temperature variation, rainfall and population size over time, we examined and compared associations between weekly average temperature and weekly dengue incidence for different outbreak categories. The same model using weeks with or without heatwaves as binary variables was applied to examine the potential effects of extreme heatwaves, defined as seven or more days with temperatures above the 95th percentile of daily temperature distribution during the study period. This study included 55,801 dengue cases, with an average of 119 (range: 0 to 1454) cases per week. The exposure-response relationship between temperature and dengue risk was non-linear and differed with dengue category. After considering the delayed effects of temperature (one week lag), we estimated that 4.6%, 11.6%, and 21.9% of incident cases during small, medium, and large outbreaks were attributable to temperature. We found evidence of an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks, with longer delayed effects on large outbreaks (around 14 weeks later) than small and medium outbreaks (4 to 9 weeks later). Compared with non-heatwave years, dengue outbreaks (i.e., small, moderate and large outbreaks combined) in heatwave years had higher weekly number of dengue cases (p<0.05). Findings were robust under different sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

The short-term association between temperature and dengue risk varied by the level of outbreaks and temperature seems more likely affect large outbreaks. Moreover, heatwaves may delay the timing and increase the magnitude of dengue outbreaks.

Dengue fever is one of the most common mosquito-borne viral diseases. Weather extremes such as El Niño event and extreme hot summer can affect dengue incidence rate and dengue outbreaks. More frequent, more intensive and longer lasting heatwaves in the 21st century is anticipated because of global warming, making it necessary to investigate the association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks. In this study, we estimated 4.6%, 11.6%, and 21.9% of incident dengue cases during small, medium, and large outbreaks attributable to temperature in Hanoi, Vietnam. We also found evidence of an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks, with longer delayed effects on large outbreaks than small and medium outbreaks. Compared with non-heatwave years, dengue outbreaks in heatwave years had higher number of dengue cases. Heatwave weather may represent an emerging risk factor or predicator of dengue outbreaks in tropical regions. Future dengue prediction models incorporating heatwaves may help increase the accuracy of predictability.

Mapping Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes albopictus Vector Mosquito Distribution in Brownsville, TX

Aedes mosquitoes are vectors of several emerging diseases and are spreading worldwide. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) mosquito trap captures in Brownsville, TX, using high-resolution land cover, socioeconomic, and meteorological data. We modeled mosquito trap counts using a Bayesian hierarchical mixed-effects model with spatially correlated residuals. The models indicated an inverse relationship between temperature and mosquito trap counts for both species, which may be due to the hot and arid climate of southern Texas. The temporal trend in mosquito populations indicated Ae. aegypti populations peaking in the late spring and Ae. albopictus reaching a maximum in winter. Our results indicated that seasonal weather variation, vegetation height, human population, and land cover determine which of the two Aedes species will predominate.

A functional trait approach to identifying life history patterns in stochastic environments

Temporal variation in demographic processes can greatly impact population dynamics. Perturbations of statistical coefficients that describe demographic rates within matrix models have, for example, revealed that stochastic population growth rates (log(λ s)) of fast life histories are more sensitive to temporal autocorrelation of environmental conditions than those of slow life histories. Yet, we know little about the mechanisms that drive such patterns. Here, we used a mechanistic, functional trait approach to examine the functional pathways by which a typical fast life history species, the macrodetrivore Orchestia gammarellus, and a typical slow life history species, the reef manta ray Manta alfredi, differ in their sensitivity to environmental autocorrelation if (a) growth and reproduction are described mechanistically by functional traits that adhere to the principle of energy conservation, and if (b) demographic variation is determined by temporal autocorrelation in food conditions. Opposite to previous findings, we found that O. gammarellus log(λ s) was most sensitive to the frequency of good food conditions, likely because reproduction traits, which directly impact population growth, were most influential to log(λ s). Manta alfredi log(λs ) was instead most sensitive to temporal autocorrelation, likely because growth parameters, which impact population growth indirectly, were most influential to log(λ s). This differential sensitivity to functional traits likely also explains why we found that O. gammarellus mean body size decreased (due to increased reproduction) but M. alfredi mean body size increased (due to increased individual growth) as food conditions became more favorable. Increasing demographic stochasticity under constant food conditions decreased O. gammarellus mean body size and increased log(λ s) due to increased reproduction, whereas M. alfredi mean body and log(λ s) decreased, likely due to decreased individual growth. Our findings signify the importance of integrating functional traits into demographic models as this provides mechanistic understanding of how environmental and demographic stochasticity affects population dynamics in stochastic environments.

Potential effects of heat waves on the population dynamics of the dengue mosquito Aedes albopictus

Extreme weather events affect the development and survival of disease pathogens and vectors. Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of heat waves on the population dynamics of Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which is a major vector of dengue and Zika viruses. We modeled the population abundance of blood-fed mosquito adults based on a mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus with the consideration of diapause. Using simulated heat wave events derived from a 35-year historical dataset, we assessed how the mosquito population responded to different heat wave characteristics, including the onset day, duration, and the average temperature. Two important observations are made: (1) a heat wave event facilitates the population growth in the early development phase but tends to have an overall inhibitive effect; and (2) two primary factors affecting the development are the unusual onset time of a heat wave and a relatively high temperature over an extended period. We also performed a sensitivity analysis using different heat wave definitions, justifying the robustness of the findings. The study suggests that particular attention should be paid to future heat wave events with an abnormal onset time or a lasting high temperature in order to develop effective strategies to prevent and control Ae. albopictus-borne diseases.

Understanding the population dynamics of Asian Tiger mosquito (Ae. albopictus)–the most prevalent vector of global epidemics including West Nile virus, dengue fever, Zika–could shed lights on improving the understanding of vector transmission as well as developing effective disease control strategies. It is widely acknowledged that the life cycle of Ae. albopictus is firmly regulated by meteorological factors in a non-linear way and is sensitive to climate change. Our study extends the understanding about how extreme heat events manipulate the mosquito population abundance. We adopted an existing mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, combined with a rich set of simulated heat wave events derived from a 35-year historical dataset, to quantify the mosquito’s responses to different heat wave characteristics. We found that an abnormal onset time and a lasting high temperature play the most important role in affecting the mosquito population dynamics. We also performed a sensitive analysis by changing the definition of the heat wave, justifying the rigor of the conclusion. This research provides implications for developing public health intervention strategies: to control dengue fever, Zika, as well as other far-reaching mosquito-borne epidemics, priority should be given to heat wave events with an abnormal onset time or a lasting high temperature.

Landscape and Environmental Factors Influencing Stage Persistence and Abundance of the Bamboo Mosquito, Tripteroides bambusa (Diptera: Culicidae), across an Altitudinal Gradient

The bamboo mosquito, Tripteroides bambusa (Yamada) (Diptera: Culicidae), is a common insect across East Asia. Several studies have looked at the ecology of Tr. bambusa developmental stages separately, but little is known about the factors associated with the persistence (how often) and abundance (how many individuals) of Tr. bambusa stages simultaneously studied across a heterogeneous landscape. Here, we ask what environmental and landscape factors are associated with the persistence and abundance of Tr. bambusa stages across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki City, Japan. During a season-long study we counted 8065 (7297 4th instar larvae, 670 pupae and 98 adults) Tr. bambusa mosquitoes. We found that persistence and abundance patterns were not associated among stages, with the exception of large (4th instar) and small (1st to 3rd instars) larvae persistence, which were positively correlated. We also found that relative humidity was associated with the persistence of Tr. bambusa aquatic stages, being positively associated with large and small larvae, but negatively with pupae. Similarly, landscape aspect changed from positive to negative the sign of its association with Tr. bambusa pupae and adults, highlighting that environmental associations change with life stage. Meanwhile, Tr. bambusa abundance patterns were negatively impacted by more variable microenvironments, as measured by the negative impacts of kurtosis and standard deviation (SD) of environmental variables, indicating Tr. bambusa thrives in stable environments, suggesting this mosquito species has a finely grained response to environmental changes.

Population Dynamics of Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae) at Ipetí-Guna, a Village in a Region Targeted for Malaria Elimination in Panamá

Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann is a major malaria vector in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean whose population dynamics, in response to changing environments, has been relatively poorly studied. Here, we present monthly adult and larvae data collected from May 2016 to December 2017 in Ipetí-Guna, a village within an area targeted for malaria elimination in the República de Panamá. During the study period we collected a total of 1678 Anopheles spp. mosquitoes (1602 adults and 76 larvae). Over 95% of the collected Anopheles spp. mosquitoes were An. albimanus. Using time series analysis techniques, we found that population dynamics of larvae and adults were not significantly correlated with each other at any time lag, though correlations were highest at one month lag between larvae and adults and four months lag between adults and larvae. Larvae population dynamics had cycles of three months and were sensitive to changes in temperature with 5 months lag, while adult abundance was correlated with itself (1 month lag) and with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with three months lag. A key observation from our study is the absence of both larvae and adults of An. albimanus between January and April from environments associated with Guna population’s daily activities, which suggests this time window could be the best time to implement elimination campaigns aimed at clearing Plasmodium spp. parasites from Guna populations using, for example, mass drug administration.

Effects of the Environmental Temperature on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Mosquitoes: A Review

The temperature of the environment is one of the most important abiotic factors affecting the life of insects. As poikilotherms, their body temperature is not constant, and they rely on various strategies to minimize the risk of thermal stress. They have been thus able to colonize a large spectrum of habitats. Mosquitoes, such as Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, vector many pathogens, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. The spread of these diseases has become a major global health concern, and it is predicted that climate change will affect the mosquitoes’ distribution, which will allow these insects to bring new pathogens to naïve populations. We synthesize here the current knowledge on the impact of temperature on the mosquito flight activity and host-seeking behavior (1); ecology and dispersion (2); as well as its potential effect on the pathogens themselves and how climate can affect the transmission of some of these pathogens (3).

Increased Adult Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance in a Dengue Transmission Hotspot, Compared to a Coldspot, within Kaohsiung City, Taiwan

The assumption that vector abundance differences might drive spatial and temporal heterogeneities in vector-borne disease transmission is common, though data supporting it is scarce. Here, we present data from two common mosquito species Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Culex quinquefasciatus Say, biweekly sampled as adults, from March 2016 through December 2017, with BG-sentinel traps in two neighboring districts of Kaohsiung City (KC), Taiwan. One district has historically been a dengue transmission hotspot (Sanmin), and the other a coldspot (Nanzih). We collected a total 41,027 mosquitoes, and we found that average mosquito abundance (mean ± S.D.) was higher in Sanmin (Ae. aegypti: 9.03 ± 1.46; Cx. quinquefasciatus: 142.57 ± 14.38) than Nanzih (Ae. aegypti: 6.21 ± 0.47; Cx. quinquefasciatus: 63.37 ± 8.71) during the study period. In both districts, Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics were sensitive to changes in temperature, the most platykurtic environmental variable at KC during the study period, a pattern predicted by Schmalhausen’s law, which states that organisms are more sensitive to small changes in environmental variables whose average value is more uncertain than its extremes. Our results also suggest that differences in Ae. aegypti abundance might be responsible for spatial differences in dengue transmission at KC. Our comparative approach, where we also observed a significant increment in the abundance of Cx. quinquefasciatus in the dengue transmission hotspot, suggests this area might be more likely to experience outbreaks of other vector borne diseases and should become a primary focus for vector surveillance and control.

A Laboratory Curse: Variation in Temperature Stimulates Embryonic Development and Shortens Diapause

An ongoing biological debate concerns the difference in trait expression in continuous versus cycling temperature regimes, but are even daily cycling temperatures sufficient to generate natural expression of traits? We compared embryonic development and the duration of diapause for Mormon cricket Anabrus simplex Haldeman (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) eggs incubated in a daily cycling temperature constant in both amplitude and thermoperiod with those in a cycling temperature that was patterned after natural fluctuations in ambient temperature. Although the proportion of eggs developing did not differ between treatments, 128 d of vernalization was required to hatch after incubation in the constant cycling treatment relative to 42 d in the more variable cycle. We then compared these same development and diapause traits for eggs incubated in a daily cycling temperature that was constant in amplitude but varied in thermoperiod with those in the cycling temperature patterned after natural fluctuations in ambient temperature. The proportion of eggs developing in this constant cycling treatment was nearly half that in the variable treatment, and 128 d was insufficient time to break diapause following the constant cycling treatment even though the thermoperiods were now more similar. We have found that variation in the cycling temperature to mimic natural fluctuations in amplitude and period broadens the time when eggs can be warmed up for hatching and improves hatching success. Daily cycling temperatures that are constant over the season are insufficient to generate natural trait expression.

Low socioeconomic condition and the risk of dengue fever: A direct relationship

This study aimed to characterize the first dengue fever epidemic in Várzea Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil, and its spatial and spatio-temporal distribution in order to assess the association of socioeconomic factors with dengue occurrence. We used autochthonous dengue cases confirmed in a 2007 epidemic, the first reported in the city, available in the Information System on Diseases of Compulsory Declaration database. These cases where geocoded by address. We identified spatial and spatio-temporal clusters of high- and low-risk dengue areas using scan statistics. To access the risk of dengue occurrence and to evaluate its relationship with socioeconomic level we used a population-based case-control design. Firstly, we fitted a generalized additive model (GAM) to dengue cases and controls without considering the non-spatial covariates to estimate the odds ratios of the occurrence of the disease. The controls were drawn considering the spatial distribution of the household of the study area and represented the source population of the dengue cases. After that, we assessed the relationship between socioeconomic variables and dengue using the GAM and obtained the effect of these covariates in the occurrence of dengue adjusted by the spatial localization of the cases and controls. Cluster analysis and GAM indicated that northeastern area of Várzea Paulista was the most affected area during the epidemic. The study showed a positive relationship between low socioeconomic condition and increased risk of dengue. We studied the first dengue epidemic in a highly susceptible population at the beginning of the outbreak and therefore it may have allowed to identify an association between low socioeconomic conditions and increased risk of dengue. These results may be useful to predict the occurrence and to identify priority areas to develop control measures for dengue, and also for Zika and Chikungunya; diseases that recently reached Latin America, especially Brazil.

Density Dependence, Landscape, and Weather Impacts on Aquatic Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance Along an Urban Altitudinal Gradient

The Asian Bush Mosquito, Aedes (Finlaya) japonicus japonicus (Theobald) is an important globally invasive mosquito species. In comparison with other major invasive mosquitoes, relatively little is known about Ae. j. japonicus population dynamics in the field. Here, we present results from a 54-biweek long study of Ae. j. japonicus abundance in ovitraps set across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan. Spatially, we found that Ae. j. japonicus fourth instar larvae (Aj4il) were more abundant at the base and top of Mt. Konpira and in ovitraps with more platykurtic water temperature (WT) distributions. In contrast, we found that temporally Aj4il were more abundant when ovitrap WT was more leptokurtic with 2 weeks of lag, and with high relative humidity SD with 2 months of lag. We also found that Aj4il were unlikely present when ovitrap WT was below 12.41°C. Parameter estimates for the Ricker model suggested that Ae. j. japonicus population growth was under density-dependence regulation, with a stable population dynamics whose fluctuations were associated with changes in ovitrap WT kurtosis and demographic stochasticity. Our results suggest that Aj4il abundance is more sensitive to temperature changes in kurtosis than mean values, potentially limiting the predictive ability of Ae. j. japonicus niche models based on the increase of average temperatures with global warming, and suggesting this mosquito species has a relatively coarse-grained response to temperature changes.

Climatic fluctuations and malaria transmission dynamics, prior to elimination, in Guna Yala, República de Panamá

BACKGROUND

Malaria has historically been entrenched in indigenous populations of the República de Panamá. This scenario occurs despite the fact that successful methods for malaria elimination were developed during the creation of the Panamá Canal. Today, most malaria cases in the República de Panamá affect the Gunas, an indigenous group, which mainly live in autonomous regions of eastern Panamá. Over recent decades several malaria outbreaks have affected the Gunas, and one hypothesis is that such outbreaks could have been exacerbated by climate change, especially by anomalous weather patterns driven by the EL Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

RESULTS

Monthly malaria cases in Guna Yala (1998-2016) were autocorrelated up to 2 months of lag, likely reflecting parasite transmission cycles between humans and mosquitoes, and cyclically for periods of 4 months that might reflect relapses of Plasmodium vivax, the dominant malaria parasite transmitted in Panamá. Moreover, malaria case number was positively associated (P < 0.05) with rainfall (7 months of lag), and negatively with the El Niño 4 index (15 months of lag) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI (8 months of lag), the sign and magnitude of these associations likely related to the impacts of weather patterns and vegetation on the ecology of Anopheles albimanus, the main malaria vector in Guna Yala. Interannual cycles, of approximately 4-year periods, in monthly malaria case numbers were associated with the El Niño 4 index, a climatic index associated with weather and vegetation dynamics in Guna Yala at seasonal and interannual time scales.

CONCLUSION

The results showed that ENSO, rainfall and NDVI were associated with the number of malaria cases in Guna Yala during the study period. These results highlight the vulnerability of Guna populations to malaria, an infection sensitive to climate change, and call for further studies about weather impacts on malaria vector ecology, as well as the association of malaria vectors with Gunas paying attention to their socio-economic conditions of poverty and cultural differences as an ethnic minority.

Overwintering in the Bamboo Mosquito Tripteroides bambusa (Diptera: Culicidae) During a Warm, But Unpredictably Changing, Winter

The bamboo mosquito, Tripteroides bambusa (Yamada) (Diptera: Culicidae), is a common insect across forested landscapes in Japan. Several studies have reported its overwintering as larvae and eggs, in both natural and artificial water containers. Nevertheless, it is unclear how sensitive this mosquito species is to changes in weather patterns associated with global warming. The El Niño event of 2015 through 2016 was one of the strongest on record and provided an ideal scenario for observations on the overwintering of the bamboo mosquito during a winter predicted to be unusually warm. Thus, we set oviposition traps in mid October 2015 and made weekly observations, from December 2015 to May 2016, on bamboo mosquito larval recruitment and pupation in Nagasaki, Japan. We found that larvae were pupating as late as the first week of January (prior records from the study site indicated mosquito pupation ended by mid-late October) and that pupation resumed in mid April (one month earlier than previous records at the study site). We also found that fourth instar larvae were able to survive in frozen oviposition traps following an extremely unusual snowstorm and cold spell and that recruitment of larvae from eggs happened after this unusual event. Our analysis suggested that overwintering and metamorphosis of the bamboo mosquito is sensitive to average and extreme temperatures, the latter measured by temperature kurtosis. Our results highlight the need to better understand changes in overwintering strategies in insects, and associated trade-offs and impacts on population dynamics, in light of climate change.

Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals

Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R₀, yet the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand the drivers of epidemics of these pathogens is acute, with arthropod-borne virus epidemics becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this need by developing temperature-dependent descriptions of the two components of r—R₀ and the generation interval—to obtain a temperature-dependent description of r. Our results show that the generation interval is highly sensitive to temperature, decreasing twofold between 25 and 35°C and suggesting that dengue virus epidemics may accelerate as temperatures increase, not only because of more infections per generation but also because of faster generations. Under the empirical temperature relationships that we considered, we found that r peaked at a temperature threshold that was robust to uncertainty in model parameters that do not depend on temperature. Although the precise value of this temperature threshold could be refined following future studies of empirical temperature relationships, the framework we present for identifying such temperature thresholds offers a new way to classify regions in which dengue virus epidemic intensity could either increase or decrease under future climate change.

Recurrent, rapidly intensifying epidemics of dengue–the world’s most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease–pose a challenge to healthcare systems throughout the tropical and subtropical world. An acute disease that tends to respond well to proper treatment, the sometimes intense nature of dengue epidemics has been known to overwhelm healthcare systems and elevate the morbidity and mortality of patients left without adequate medical treatment under peak epidemic conditions. Here, we quantify the temperature dependence of dengue epidemic intensity by quantifying two distinct determinants of epidemic growth rate: the average number of secondary infections arising from each primary infection and the average time between successive infections in humans. Our results show that the time between successive infections in humans decreases steadily with increasing temperatures, whereas the average number of secondary infections peaks at intermediate temperatures. Altogether, this suggests a peak temperature for dengue epidemic intensity. Applying this result to global temperature projections under future climate change scenarios suggests that dengue epidemics in many regions of the world could become more intense under future temperature increases.

Ecological Niche Model for Predicting Distribution of Disease-Vector Mosquitoes in Yucatán State, México

The majority of the Yucatán State, México, presents subtropical climate that is suitable for many species of mosquitoes that are known to be vectors of diseases, including those from the genera Aedes and Culex. The objective of this study is to identify the geographic distribution of five species from these two genera and estimate the human population at risk of coming in contact with them. We compiled distributional data for Aedes aegypti (L.), Aedes (Howardina) cozumelensis (Diaz Najera), Culex coronator Dyar and Knab, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, and Culex thriambus Dyar from several entomological studies in Yucatán between March 2010 and September 2014. Based on these data, we constructed ecological niche models to predict the spatial distribution of each species using the MaxEnt algorithm. Our models identified areas with suitable environments for Ae. aegypti in most of Yucatán. A similar percentage of urban (97.1%) and rural (96.5%) populations were contained in areas of highest suitability for Ae. aegypti, and no spatial pattern was found (Moran's I = 0.33, P = 0.38); however, we found an association of abundance of immature forms of this species with annual mean temperature (r = 0.19, P ≤ 0.001) and annual precipitation (r = 0.21, P ≤ 0.001). Aedes cozumelensis is also distributed in most areas of the Yucatán State; Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. coronator, and Cx. thriambus are restricted to the northwest. The information generated in this study can inform decision-making to address control measures in priority areas with presence of these vectors.

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan

Background

Southern Taiwan has been a hotspot for dengue fever transmission since 1998. During 2014 and 2015, Taiwan experienced unprecedented dengue outbreaks and the causes are poorly understood. This study aims to investigate the influence of regional and local climate conditions on the incidence of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as to develop a climate-based model for future forecasting.

Methodology/Principle findings

Historical time-series data on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998 to 2015 were investigated. Local climate variables were analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and the model of best fit was used to predict dengue incidence between 2013 and 2015. The cross-wavelet coherence approach was used to evaluate the regional El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) effects on dengue incidence and local climate variables. The DLNM results highlighted the important non-linear and lag effects of minimum temperature and precipitation. Minimum temperature above 23°C or below 17°C can increase dengue incidence rate with lag effects of 10 to 15 weeks. Moderate to high precipitation can increase dengue incidence rates with a lag of 10 or 20 weeks. The model of best fit successfully predicted dengue transmission between 2013 and 2015. The prediction accuracy ranged from 0.7 to 0.9, depending on the number of weeks ahead of the prediction. ENSO and IOD were associated with nonstationary inter-annual patterns of dengue transmission. IOD had a greater impact on the seasonality of local climate conditions.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings suggest that dengue transmission can be affected by regional and local climatic fluctuations in southern Taiwan. The climate-based model developed in this study can provide important information for dengue early warning systems in Taiwan. Local climate conditions might be influenced by ENSO and IOD, to result in unusual dengue outbreaks.

Influence of shading and pedestrian traffic on the preference of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) for oviposition microenvironments

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are highly adaptable to abiotic stimuli. To evaluate the influence of shading and pedestrian traffic on the preference of Ae. aegypti for oviposition microenvironments, 20 sites were sampled weekly using ovitraps within the perimeter of Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, located in São Mateus, Espírito Santo, Brazil. A spatial and statistical analysis was performed in order to assess the relationship between shading time, pedestrian traffic, and the presence of biological forms of Ae. aegypti. A temporal analysis of temperature and precipitation influence on oviposition was also made. Between June, 2013 and June, 2014, 7,362 Ae. aegypti eggs were collected. Over a 12-month period, we made weekly collections of Ae. aegypti eggs from ovitraps. Pedestrian traffic and shading time influenced the number of positive ovitraps; precipitation and temperature were correlated with the number of positive ovitraps (p <0.05). We conclude that the influence of temperature and precipitation was not significant for the oviposition index, and the frequency of oviposition was directly proportional to the number of individuals moving close to the traps during periods of greater shading.

Mosquito Species (Diptera: Culicidae) Persistence and Synchrony Across an Urban Altitudinal Gradient

Patterns of mosquito spatial persistence and temporal presence, as well as synchrony, i.e., the degree of concerted fluctuations in abundance, have been scarcely studied at finely grained spatial scales and over altitudinal gradients. Here, we present a spatial persistence, temporal presence, and synchrony analysis of four common mosquito species across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira in Nagasaki, Japan. We found that Aedes albopictus (Skuse) was more frequently found at the mountain base. In contrast, Aedes japonicus (Theobald) and Aedes flavopictus Yamada were common higher in the mountain, while Armigeres subalbatus (Coquillet) was uniformly present across the mountain, yet less frequently than the other species during the studied period. Our analysis showed that these spatial heterogeneities were associated with differences in landscape and microclimatic elements of Mt. Konpira. Temporally we found that presence across sampling locations was mainly synchronous across the four species and positively associated with rainfall and temperature. With the exception of Ae albopictus, where no significant synchrony was observed, mosquito species mainly showed flat synchrony profiles in Mt. Konpira when looking at the geographic (2-D) distance between their sampling locations. By contrast, when synchrony was studied across altitude, it was observed that Ae. flavopictus tracked the temperature synchrony pattern, decreasing its synchrony with the separation in altitude between sampling locations. Finally, our results suggest that differences in mosquito species persistence, temporal presence, and synchrony might be useful to understand the entomological risk of vector-borne disease transmission in urban landscapes.

Globally invasive, withdrawing at home: Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus facing the rise of Aedes flavopictus

It has been suggested that climate change may have facilitated the global expansion of invasive disease vectors, since several species have expanded their range as temperatures have warmed. Here, we present results from observations on two major global invasive mosquito vectors (Diptera: Culicidae), Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald), across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan, a location within their native range, where Aedes flavopictus Yamada, formerly a rare species, has now become dominant. Spatial abundance patterns of the three species suggest that temperature is an important factor influencing their adult distribution across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira. Temporal abundance patterns, by contrast, were associated with rainfall and showed signals of density-dependent regulation in the three species. The spatial and temporal analysis of abundance patterns showed that Ae. flavopictus and Ae. albopictus were negatively associated, even when accounting for differential impacts of weather and other environmental factors in their co-occurrence patterns. Our results highlight a contingency in the expansion of invasive vectors, the potential emergence of changes in their interactions with species in their native communities, and raise the question of whether these changes might be useful to predict the emergence of future invasive vectors.

The fingerprints of global climate change on insect populations

Synthesizing papers from the last two years, I examined generalizations about the fingerprints of climate change on insects' population dynamics and phenology. Recent work shows that populations can differ in response to changes in climate means and variances. The part of the thermal niche occupied by an insect population, voltinism, plasticity and adaptation to weather perturbations, and interactions with other species can all exacerbate or mitigate responses to climate change. Likewise, land use change or agricultural practices can affect responses to climate change. Nonetheless, our knowledge of effects of climate change is still biased by organism and geographic region, and to some extent by scale of climate parameter.

Dengue and chikungunya: modelling the expansion of mosquito-borne viruses into naïve populations

With the recent global spread of a number of mosquito-borne viruses, there is an urgent need to understand the factors that contribute to the ability of viruses to expand into naïve populations. Using dengue and chikungunya viruses as case studies, we detail the necessary components of the expansion process: presence of the mosquito vector; introduction of the virus; and suitable conditions for local transmission. For each component we review the existing modelling approaches that have been used to understand recent emergence events or to assess the risk of future expansions. We identify gaps in our knowledge that are related to each of the distinct aspects of the human-mosquito transmission cycle: mosquito ecology; human-mosquito contact; mosquito-virus interactions; and human-virus interactions. Bridging these gaps poses challenges to both modellers and empiricists, but only through further integration of models and data will we improve our ability to better understand, and ultimately control, several infectious diseases that exert a significant burden on human health.

Governmental supervision and rapid detection on dengue vectors: An important role for dengue control in China

BACKGROUND

China experienced an unprecedented outbreak of dengue fever in 2014, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China (NHFPC) carried out a series of supervision work on integrated vector management (IVM), and Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) conducted a rapid detection on vector density in some areas with high dengue incidence. The goal of this study was to explain the effect of these actions, which play an important role for dengue control, and we wish to give a good example for dengue control in China, even in the world.

METHODS

Compare mosquito vector density with Breteau Index (BI) and dengue incidence after or along with control work vs. before. Data was entered and analyzed by Microsoft Excel 2007 and SPSS19.0.

RESULTS

Average value of BI from 22.82 in September dropped to 3.93 along with supervision and rapid detection. BI showed a significant decrease (paired sample t-test, t=3.061, P=0.018≺0.05). Dengue incidence decreased gradually along with supervision and rapid detection.

CONCLUSIONS

Supervised work on IVM by NHFPC and the rapid detection on dengue vector Aedes by China CDC promoted to cut down the dengue vector density, then reduced dengue incidence; both played an important role for dengue control throughout China in 2014.

Macroecological patterns of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis transmission across the health areas of Panamá (1980-2012)

American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ACL) is a neglected vector-borne zoonosis that persists despite increasing socio-economic development and urbanization in Panamá. Here, we investigate the association between environmental changes and spatio-temporal ACL transmission in the Republic of Panamá (1980-2012). We employ a macroecological approach, where patterns of variation in ACL incidence at the spatially coarse-grained scale of health areas are studied considering factors linked to the ecology of ACL transmission. We specifically study impacts of climatic variability, measured by the different phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), within diverse ecosystems and sand fly (Diptera: Psychodidae) vector species, as well as heterogeneous local climatic patterns, deforestation, population growth rates, and changes in social marginalization. We found that over the study period, patterns of ACL incidence: (i) were asynchronous with clusters changing from east to west of the Panamá Canal, (ii) trends increased in the west, and decreased or remained nearly constant in the east, independent of human population growth, (iii) generally increased in years following El Niño, and (iv) decreased as forest cover increased. We found no significant association between changes in socio-economic indicators and ACL transmission. Regarding vector abundance and presence, we found that studies had been biased to locations east of the Panamá canal, and that, in general, the abundance of dominant vector species decreased during the cold phase of ENSO. Finally, our results indicate that a macroecological approach is useful to understand heterogeneities related to environmental change impacts on ACL transmission.

Determining meteorological drivers of salt marsh mosquito peaks in tropical northern Australia

In northern Australia the northern salt marsh mosquito Aedes vigilax is a vector of Ross River virus and is an appreciable pest. A coastal wetland adjacent to Darwin's residential suburbs offers a favorable habitat for Ae. vigilax, and despite vigilant mosquito control efforts, peaks of Ae. vigilax occur in excess of 500/trap/night some months. To improve mosquito control for disease and nuisance biting to nearby residential areas, we sought to investigate meteorological drivers associated with these Ae. vigilax peaks. We fitted a cross-sectional logistic regression model to weekly counts of female Ae. vigilax mosquitoes collected between July, 1998 and June, 2009 against variables, tide, rainfall, month, year, and larval control. Aedes vigilax peaks were associated with rainfall during the months September to November compared with January, when adjusted for larval control and tide. To maximize mosquito control efficiency, larval control should continue to be implemented after high tides and with increased emphasis on extensive larval hatches triggered by rainfall between September and November each year. This study reiterates the importance of monitoring and evaluating service delivery programs. Using statistical modelling, service providers can obtain solutions to operational problems using routinely collected data. These methods may be applicable in mosquito surveillance or control programs in other areas.

Population dynamics of Armigeres subalbatus (Diptera: Culicidae) across a temperate altitudinal gradient

Understanding the impacts of weather fluctuations, and environmental gradients, on the abundance of vectors is fundamental to grasp the dynamic nature of the entomological risk for disease transmission. The mosquito Armigeres subalbatus (Coquillet) is a common vector of filariasis. Nevertheless, its population dynamics have been relatively poorly studied. Here, we present results from a season long study where we studied spatio-temporal abundance patterns of Ar. subalbatus across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira in Nagasaki, Japan. Spatially, we found that abundance of adult Ar. subalbatus decreased with altitude and increased in areas where the ground was rich in leaf litter. Similarly, adult activity was observed only when relative humidity was over 65%. Temporally, we found that peaks in abundance followed large rainfall events. Nevertheless, this mosquito was under significant density dependence regulation. Our results suggest that Ar. subalbatus population peaks following large rainfall events could reflect the recruitment of individuals that were dormant as dry eggs. We did not find a clear signal of temperature on abundance changes of this mosquito, but only on its phenology. Since ground cover seemed more critical than temperature to its spatial distribution, we propose that this mosquito might have some degree of autonomy to changes in temperature.

New and Common Haplotypes Shape Genetic Diversity in Asian Tiger Mosquito Populations from Costa Rica and Panamá

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae), is a vector of several human pathogens. Ae. albopictus is also an invasive species that, over recent years, has expanded its range out of its native Asia. Ae. albopictus was suspected to be present in Central America since the 1990s, and its presence was confirmed by most Central American nations by 2010. Recently, this species has been regularly found, yet in low numbers, in limited areas of Panamá and Costa Rica (CR). Here, we report that short sequences (∼558 bp) of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (COI) and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 5 genes of Ae. albopictus, had no haplotype diversity. Instead, there was a common haplotype for each gene in both CR and Panamá. In contrast, a long COI sequence (∼1,390 bp) revealed that haplotype diversity (±SD) was relatively high in CR (0.72±0.04) when compared with Panamá (0.33±0.13), below the global estimate for reported samples (0.89±0.01). The long COI sequence allowed us to identify seven (five new) haplotypes in CR and two (one new) in Panamá. A haplotype network for the long COI gene sequence showed that samples from CR and Panamá belong to a single large group. The long COI gene sequences suggest that haplotypes in Panamá and CR, although similar to each other, had a significant geographic differentiation (Kst=1.33; P<0.001). Thus, most of our results suggest a recent range expansion in CR and Panamá.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with el niño in panamá

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it is unclear how SF abundance is impacted by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how these changes might relate to changes in CL transmission.

METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS

We studied association patterns between monthly time series, from January 2000 to December 2010, of: CL cases, rainfall and temperature from Panamá, and an ENSO index. We employed autoregressive models and cross wavelet coherence, to quantify the seasonal and interannual impact of local climate and ENSO on CL dynamics. We employed Poisson Rate Generalized Linear Mixed Models to study SF abundance patterns across ENSO phases, seasons and eco-epidemiological settings, employing records from 640 night-trap sampling collections spanning 2000-2011. We found that ENSO, rainfall and temperature were associated with CL cycles at interannual scales, while seasonal patterns were mainly associated with rainfall and temperature. Sand fly (SF) vector abundance, on average, decreased during the hot and cold ENSO phases, when compared with the normal ENSO phase, yet variability in vector abundance was largest during the cold ENSO phase. Our results showed a three month lagged association between SF vector abundance and CL cases.

CONCLUSION

Association patterns of CL with ENSO and local climatic factors in Panamá indicate that interannual CL cycles might be driven by ENSO, while the CL seasonality was mainly associated with temperature and rainfall variability. CL cases and SF abundance were associated in a fashion suggesting that sudden extraordinary changes in vector abundance might increase the potential for CL epidemic outbreaks, given that CL epidemics occur during the cold ENSO phase, a time when SF abundance shows its highest fluctuations.

Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Background

Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission.

Methods

A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012.

Results

Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review.

Conclusions

It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change.

Evaluation of Moringa oleifera seed lectin in traps for the capture of Aedes aegypti eggs and adults under semi-field conditions

The water-soluble lectin isolated from Moringa oleifera seeds (WSMoL) is a larvicidal, ovicidal, and oviposition-stimulating agent against Aedes aegypti under laboratory conditions. This study investigated the effect of WSMoL in traps for the capture of A. aegypti eggs and adult females under semi-field conditions and determined whether gravid females could detect WSMoL by an olfactory response. WSMoL was isolated according to a previously described procedure using chitin chromatography. The bioassays were performed in large cages (12.5 m(3)). Two traps for collection of eggs (ovitrap) or adult mosquitoes (MosquiTRAP(TM)) were placed in a cage. One was filled with WSMoL (0.1 mg/mL) and the other with tap water (negative control). An infusion of Panicum maximum leaves was used as a positive control. Forty gravid females were then released in each cage. After 2 (for oviposition) or 3 h (for female capture), the traps were removed, and the number of eggs or females was counted. An olfactometry assay was performed to investigate whether the effect of WSMoL on gravid females was linked to an olfactory response. WSMoL showed an oviposition-stimulating effect (65 ± 14%) that was similar (p < 0.05) to that promoted by the P. maximum infusion (67 ± 11%). The efficiency of MosquiTRAP(TM) in capturing gravid females was not increased by WSMoL. The olfactometry assay indicated that the response of females to WSMoL did not involve the stimulation of olfactory sensilla. WSMoL effectively captured eggs when used in ovitraps under semi-field conditions; this property, together with the ovicidal and larvicidal activities of this lectin, makes it an interesting candidate for A. aegypti control.