Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae)

Species-specific variation in predicted distribution and habitat suitability of phlebotomine sand flies in Italy under different climate change scenarios

The incidence of human and canine leishmaniasis in Europe is increasing and is a key indicator in the Lancet Countdown report on health and climate change 2024. While the potential distribution of the disease on a continental scale has been assessed under climate change scenarios, local analyses of vector species distribution are crucial for effective prevention strategies. Italy is endemic for Leishmania infantum, and expansions in the latitudinal and altitudinal distribution of canine cases and vector species have been recorded. This study evaluated the potential distribution of six phlebotomine sand fly species, known or suspected vectors of L. infantum, under climate change scenarios using ecological niche modeling and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt v. 3.4.1) modeling algorithm. We analyzed 410 records from 1979 to 2013 and projected future distributions for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 using five CMIP5 models and two representative concentration pathways. Historical data from 1968 to 1972 were also examined to confirm suitable areas. The predictions indicate suitable habitats for sand flies throughout Italy, and variations among the different scenarios evaluated. All species show potential for expansion, such as the main vector, P. perniciosus, which shows an increase in the percentage of suitable habitat over time. On the other hand, predictions for P. perfiliewi don't show a clear pattern, with an initial decrease and subsequent increase in suitable areas. Shifts in the distribution of insect vectors may affect the dynamics of Leishmania transmission, highlighting the need for improved surveillance strategies.

Toscana virus - an emerging Mediterranean arbovirus transmitted by sand flies

Toscana virus (TOSV) is an emerging arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) of medical importance that is increasing its range across much of the Mediterranean Basin, Europe and the Middle East. Transmitted by Phlebotomus spp. sand flies, it is the most clinically relevant sand fly-borne phlebovirus. Initially isolated in the Tuscany region of Central Italy, it has now been detected in multiple countries that surround this geographical area. Infection of the vertebrate host can cause fever and neurological disease, following the dissemination of the virus to the brain. The prevalence is high in some regions, with a notable percentage of individuals showing seroconversion. TOSV can be a leading cause of acute meningitis and encephalitis (AME) during the summer months. In this comprehensive review, we will focus on several key topics. We discuss how TOSV has spread to establish outbreaks of infection in both humans and animals around the Mediterranean and the wider region. Clinical aspects of TOSV infection in humans are described, along with the best standards in diagnosis. Finally, we focus our discussion on the role of the sand fly vector, describing their biology, vector competency, implications for putative vertebrate reservoirs, the effect of the climate emergency on sand fly distribution and the putative role that sand fly-derived salivary factors may have on modulating host susceptibility to TOSV infection.

Predicting the potential distribution and coexistence of Chagas disease vectors in the Americas

Predicting the potential distribution and coexistence of suitable geographic areas for Chagas disease vectors in the Americas is a crucial task for understanding the eco-epidemiological dynamics of this disease. The potential distribution and coexistence of 3 species-Rhodnius prolixus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), Cavernicola pilosa (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), and Rhodnius pictipes (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) were modeled. Presence records were obtained and environmental variables were selected based on correlation analysis, Jackknife analysis and knowledge of the biology and natural history of the species. The MaxEnt algorithm included in the kuenm package of R software was used for modeling the potential distribution, and various scenarios of the BAM diagram (Biotic, Abiotic, and Movement variables) were evaluated. The variables contributing to the final models were different for each species. Rhodnius pictipes showed a potential distribution in South America, particularly in Brazil, Bolivia, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname. Areas with environmentally suitable conditions for R. prolixus were located in southern Brazil, Peru, Colombia, southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, whereas for C. pilosa they were in southeastern Brazil, southeastern Central America, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana. Co-occurrence analysis revealed distinct patterns in the neotropical region, with some areas indicating the potential distribution of 1 or more species. In Brazil, occurrence and co-occurrence areas were concentrated in the northwest and southeast regions. Overall, this study provides valuable information on the potential distribution and coexistence of vectors, which can inform targeted vector control strategies and contribute to global efforts in combating Chagas disease.

Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review

To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.

Humidity and temperature preference in two Neotropical species of sand flies

BACKGROUND

Arthropods vector a multitude of human disease-causing organisms, and their geographic ranges are shifting rapidly in response to changing climatic conditions. This is, in turn, altering the landscape of disease risk for human populations that are brought into novel contact with the vectors and the diseases they carry. Sand flies in the genera Lutzomyia and Pintomyia are vectors of serious disease-causing agents such as Leishmania (the etiological agent of leishmaniasis) and may be expanding their range in the face of climate change. Understanding the climatic conditions that vector species both tolerate physiologically and prefer behaviorally is critical to predicting the direction and magnitude of range expansions and the resulting impacts on human health. Temperature and humidity are key factors that determine the geographic extent of many arthropods, including vector species.

METHODS

We characterized the habitat of two species of sand flies, Lutzomyia longipalpis and Pintomyia evansi. Additionally, we studied two behavioral factors of thermal fitness-thermal and humidity preference in two species of sand flies alongside a key aspect of physiological tolerance-desiccation resistance.

RESULTS

We found that Lu. longipalpis is found at cooler and drier conditions than Pi. evansi. Our results also show significant interspecific differences in both behavioral traits, with Pi. evansi preferring warmer, more humid conditions than Lu. longipalpis. Finally, we found that Lu. longipalpis shows greater tolerance to extreme low humidity, and that this is especially pronounced in males of the species.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our results suggest that temperature and humidity conditions are key aspects of the climatic niche of Lutzomyia and Pintomyia sand flies and underscore the value of integrative studies of climatic tolerance and preference in vector biology.

Canine leishmaniasis in the Americas: etiology, distribution, and clinical and zoonotic importance

Canine leishmaniasis is a widespread disease on the American continent, with cases reported from Uruguay to the USA and Canada. While numerous Leishmania spp. have been reported in dogs in this region, Leishmania infantum and Leishmania braziliensis are the most common etiological agents of canine leishmaniasis from a continental perspective. Nonetheless, other species may predominate locally in some countries. The participation of dogs in the transmission cycle of various Leishmania spp. has long been speculated, but evidence indicates that their role as reservoirs of species other than L. infantum is negligible. Various native wildlife (e.g., small rodents, marsupials, sloths, and monkeys) are, in fact, the primary hosts of Leishmania spp. in the Americas. In this review, an updated list of Leishmania spp. infecting dogs in the Americas is presented, along with their distribution and clinical and zoonotic importance.

Effect of environmental variables on the incidence of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil and Colombia

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is the most severe of the three forms of Leishmaniasis. In the Americas, Brazil and Colombia present more than 90 % of the cases in the region. Our aim in this research was to estimate the association of the incidence rate of Visceral Leishmaniasis with the following environmental variables: the percentage of area suitable for the vector Lutzomyia longipalpis, the episodes of La Niña and El Niño, the Brazilian and Colombian biomes. Epidemiological data were obtained from the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System and the Colombian National Public Health Surveillance System. Environmental data were downloaded from the NASA Giovanni web app, the Modis Sensor database, and the meteorological agencies of Australia, Japan, and the United States of America. Records of the presence of Lu. longipalpis were obtained from public databases and previous studies. As a result, the incidence per 10,000 inhabitants with LEBS for each El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode showed the largest values during El Niño 2015-2016, mainly in Brazil's Northeast and Central regions and the Northeast region of Colombia. Compared with the Neutral 2012-2014 episode, the episodes of El Niño 2015-2016 and La Niña 2010-2011 showed an average increase in the monthly incidence rate of VL, and the average increase was higher during El Niño 2015-2016 (aIRR = 2.304 vs.1.453) We found a positive association between the incidence rate of VL and the El Niño 2015-2016 episode and an impressive% of area suitable for the vector Lu. longipalpis in the Amazon region.An increase of 1 % in the area suitable for the vector Lu. longipalpis leads to an average rise of 0.8 % in the monthly incidence rate of VL. Our study shows a possible association between VL incidence and ENSO, with the most considerable incidence rates observed during El Niño 2015-2016 in Brazil's Northeast and Central regions and the Northeast region of Colombia. The present study is very important to better understand the Visceral Leishmaniasis transmission dynamics.

Same parasite, different outcomes: unraveling the epidemiology of Leishmania infantum infection in Brazil and Spain

Human leishmaniosis caused by Leishmania infantum is an important health problem worldwide. One of the main aspects arousing interest is the epidemiological scenario surrounding Le. infantum infection in the New World (NW) and Old World (OW). This parasite was introduced to the Americas during European colonization leading to different epidemiology outcomes, even more enigmatic in the face of global changes. Thus, this review aims to highlight the differences and similarities between Le. infantum epidemiology between Brazil (NW) and Spain (OW), as both countries are leading the total number of leishmaniosis cases in their respective continents. Grounded on a systemic view, this article also draws attention to possible common innovative strategies to rethink ways of controlling infections caused by Le. infantum.

Association between the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis and Nyssomyia whitmani and leishmaniasis incidence in Piauí State, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Leishmaniases are vector borne diseases caused by Leishmania spp. parasites transmitted by female sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) whose geographic distribution is influenced by environmental factors. Among the main tools for studying the distribution of vector species, modeling techniques are used to analyze the influence of climatic and environmental factors on the distribution of these insects and their association with human cases of the disease.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Here, we used a multiscale ecological niche modeling approach to assess the environmental suitability of sandfly vectors of the etiological agents of Visceral (VL) and American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ACL) in Piauí state, northeastern Brazil, and then evaluated their relationship with human disease incidence. For this, we obtained the geographic coordinates of the vector species Lutzomyia longipalpis and Nyssomyia whitmani through literature review, online databases and unpublished records. These data were used for the development of predictive models of the distribution of both sandflies species based on climatic and environmental variables. Finally, the environmental suitability for the presence of these vectors was compared with the incidence of both the diseases at the municipality level. The final models for each sandfly species showed good predictive powers with performance metric values of 0.889 for Lu. longipalpis and 0.776 for Ny. whitmani. The areas with greater environmental suitability for the presence of these species were concentrated in the central-north region of Piauí and coincide with the location of those municipalities presenting higher incidences of VL and ACL, situated in the central-north and extreme north of the state, respectively. The south and southeast regions of Piauí state have low incidence of these diseases and presented low environmental suitability for the presence of both vectors.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We discuss how predictive modeling can guide entomological and epidemiological surveillances and recommend an increased supervision and control activities in Teresina (capital of the state of Piaui), Altos and Pedro II, in addition to other municipalities with similar social and environmental characteristics.

Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru?

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by Culicoides spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whether climate change would influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of BTV and Culicoides insignis in Peru. Here, we analyzed BTV (n = 145) and C. insignis (n = 22) occurrence records under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) with five primary general circulation models (GCMs) using the kuenm R package v.1.1.9. Then, we obtained binary presence–absence maps and represented the risk of transmission of BTV and niche overlapping. The niche model approach showed that north and east Peru presented suitability in the current climate scenario and they would have a decreased risk of BTV, whilst its vector would be stable and expand with high agreement for the five GCMs. In addition, its niche overlap showed that the two niches almost overlap at present and would completely overlap with one another in future climate scenarios. These findings might be used to determine the areas of highest priority for entomological and virological investigations and surveillance in order to control and prevent bluetongue infections in Peru.

Genetic variability highlights the invasion route of the Lutzomyia longipalpis complex, the main vector of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Uruguay

In the Americas, the sandfly Lutzomyia longipalpis is the main vector of the parasitic protozoa Leishmania infantum, the etiological agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). The Lu. longipalpis species complex is currently discontinuously distributed across the Neotropical region, from Mexico to the north of Argentina and Uruguay. During its continental spreading, it must have adapted to several biomes and temperature amplitudes, when founder events should have contributed to the high genetic divergence and geographical structure currently observed, reinforcing the speciation process. The first report of Lu. longipalpis in Uruguay was in 2010, calling the attention of Public Health authorities. Five years later, the parasite Le. infantum was recorded and in 2015 the first case of VL in canids was reported. Hitherto seven human cases by VL have been reported in Uruguay. Here, we publish the first DNA sequences from the mitochondrial genes ND4 and CYTB of Lu. longipalpis collected in Uruguay, and we used these molecular markers to investigate their genetic variability and population structure. We described four new ND4 haplotypes in a total of 98 (4/98) and one CYTB in a total of 77 (1/77). As expected, we were able to establish that the Lu. longipalpis collected in two localities (i.e. Salto and Bella Unión) from the north of Uruguay are closely related to the populations from neighbouring countries. We also propose that the possible route for the vector arrival to the region may have been through vegetation and forest corridors of the Uruguay River system, as well as it may have benefited from landscape modifications generated by commercial forestation. The ecological-scale processes shaping Lu. longipalpis populations, the identification of genetically homogeneous groups and the gene flow among them must be carefully investigated by using highly sensible molecular markers (i.e. genome wide SNPs) since it will help to the understanding of VL transmission and contribute to the planification of public policies on its control.

Similarity but not equivalence: Ecological niche comparison between sandflies from the Pleistocene and future scenarios in Central and South America

Sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) are suspected or proven vectors of Leishmania spp. in the American region. Understanding niche conservatism (NC) in insect vectors allows an understanding of constraints on adaptive responses, and thus implications for disease ecology. Therefore, in this study, the authors evaluated NC in three vector species of leishmaniasis (Lutzomyia gomezi, Psathyromyia shannoni and Pintomyia ovallesi) in Central and South America. For this, the authors performed niche identity and similarity testing through paired comparisons in ENMTools and niche overlap in Niche Analyst. The authors found that species niches were more similar to each other than if the points had been randomly extracted, and they also found extensive similarity between Pa. shannoni and Lu. gomezi niches and in Pa. shannoni niches over different timescales. The authors suggest Pa. shannoni as a priority species due to fundamental niche similarity with phylogenetically related species and also its extensive evolutionary history and ecological plasticity that could affect the emergence and resurgence of leishmaniasis in areas endemic by this vector.

Geographic distribution of human leishmaniasis and phlebotomine sand flies in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

BACKGROUND

In the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, sand flies and cases of visceral (VL) and cutaneous (CL) leishmaniases have been reported in almost all municipalities. The aim of this study was to analyze the geographic distribution of VL and CL in relation the sand fly species found in the municipalities of Mato Grosso do Sul.

METHODS

We analyzed VL and CL cases from 2001 to 2018 using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). Data collected since 2003 on the presence of sand fly vectors (proven or suspected) were provided by the State Health Secretariat.

RESULTS

A total of 3566 and 3030 cases of VL and CL, respectively, were reported from 2001 to 2018. The municipalities with the most reported cases of VL were Campo Grande (2495), Três Lagoas (442), Corumbá (140) and Aquidauana (136); and those for CL were Campo Grande (635) and Bodoquena (197). The following sand fly species with vector potential were found in 59 municipalities (74.7%): Lutzomyia longipalpis, Lutzomyia cruzi, Nyssomyia whitmani, Migonemyia migonei, Nyssomyia neivai, Pintomyia pessoai, Bichromomyia flaviscutellata and Pintomyia fischeri. Sand flies were present in six municipalities where no cases of VL were reported and in two municipalities where no cases of CL were reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that the geographical distribution of VL and CL in Mato Grosso do Sul expanded during the study period, and highlight the presence of sand fly vectors in municipalities where these diseases are currently considered to be non-endemic.

Phlebotomine Sandfly (Diptera: Psychodidae) Fauna and The Association Between Climatic Variables and The Abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato in an Intense Transmission Area for Visceral Leishmaniasis in Central Western Brazil

The presence, abundance, and distribution of sandflies are strongly influenced by climate and environmental changes. This study aimed to describe the sandfly fauna in an intense transmission area for visceral leishmaniasis and to evaluate the association between the abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Lutz & Neiva 1912) (Diptera: Psychodidae) and climatic variables. Captures were carried out 2 yr (July 2017 to June 2019) with automatic light traps in 16 sites of the urban area of Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul state. The temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), precipitation (mm3), and wind speed (km/h) were obtained by a public domain database. The Wilcoxon test compared the absolute frequencies of the species by sex. The association between climatic variables and the absolute frequency of Lu. longipalpis s.l. was assessed using the Spearman's correlation coefficient. A total of 1,572 sandflies into four species were captured. Lutzomyia longipalpis s.l. was the most abundant species and presented a significant correlation with the average temperature, humidity, and wind speed in different periods. Lutzomyia longipalpis s.l. was captured in all months, showing its plasticity in diverse weather conditions. We emphasize the importance of regular monitoring of vectors and human and canine cases, providing data for surveillance and control actions to continue to be carried out in the municipality.

Potential distribution of four vectors of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis: The effect of El Niño and La Niña episodes from the perspective of the ecological niche

The potential distribution of four American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis vectors under average conditions during Neutral (in between episodes), El Niño, and La Niña episodes from 2000 to 2018 were constructed through ecological niche modeling. The potential distribution in El Niño and La Niña were compared with the Neutral distribution. The four vector species (Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia ovallesi, Lutzomyia panamensis, and Lutzomyia trapidoi) decreased the potential distribution with the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña episodes. During El Niño, the reduction was concentrated over the dry ecosystems, while with the occurrence of La Niña, the potential distribution decreased over most of the Neotropic, leaving areas of climatic suitability concentrated in the Andean and Amazon areas, along with some scattered patches. We found evidence that the occurrence of the climatic anomalies has an effect on the potential distribution of this vector species.

Intraspecific differentiation of sandflies specimens by optical spectroscopy and multivariate analysis

Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia cruzi are the main sandflies species involved in the transmission of Leishmania infantum protozoan in Brazil. The morphological characteristics can be used for species identification of males specimens, while females are indistinguishable. Although, sandflies identification is essential to understand vectorial capacity, and susceptibility to infectious agents or insecticides, there is a lack of new strategies for specimen identification. In this study, Fourier transform infrared photoacoustic spectroscopy combined with multivariate analysis identified intraspecific differences between Lutzomyia populations. Successfully group clustering was achieved by principal component analysis. The main differences observed can be related to the protein content of the specimens. A classification with 100% accuracy was obtained using machine learning approach, allowing the identification of sandflies specimens.

Detection of Pintomyia fischeri (Diptera: Psychodidae) With Leishmania infantum (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae) Promastigotes in a Focus of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil

Visceral leishmaniasis is spreading in Brazil where the main vector of its agent, Leishmania infantum Nicolle, 1908, is the Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) species complex (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), on which many of the activities of the visceral leishmaniasis surveillance program are based. However, there are areas where canine, and/or human cases have been occurring without the presence of this species complex as in the western part of the Greater São Paulo Metropolitan region, where Embu das Artes municipality is situated. In this area, Pintomyia fischeri (Pinto, 1926) has been implicated as potential vector of Le. infantum but so far its natural infection with this parasite has not yet been ascertained. Therefore, the present study sought to investigate the natural infection in sand flies of a CVL focus in Embu das Artes. The sand fly collections were undertaken with Shannon and CDC traps, monthly, between 1800 and 2100 hours from November 2018 to October 2019, inclusive. A total of 951 sand flies (457 males and 494 females), belonging to 10 species, were captured. Pintomyia fischeri was the predominant species (89.5%); of which 426 females were dissected and one of them (0.23%) was found to be harboring flagellates in its midgut. A sample of these flagellates was isolated in culture and characterized by a 234 base pair fragment of Leishmania heat-shock protein 70 gene (hsp70) and restriction fragment length polymorphism with Hae III restriction enzyme as Le. infantum. This finding reinforces previous evidence of Pi. fischeri as a vector of Le. infantum in foci of visceral leishmaniasis and highlights the importance of vector surveillance in areas where this species occurs.

Potential Distribution of Aedes (Ochlerotatus) scapularis (Diptera: Culicidae): A Vector Mosquito New to the Florida Peninsula

Aedes scapularis is a neotropical mosquito known to transmit pathogens of medical and veterinary importance. Its recent establishment in southeastern Florida has potential public health implications. We used an ecological niche modeling approach to predict the abiotic environmental suitability for Ae. scapularis across much of the Americas and Caribbean Islands. Georeferenced occurrence data obtained from the Global Biodiversity Inventory Facility and recent collection records of Ae. scapularis from southern Florida served as input for model calibration. Environmental layers included bioclimatic variables provided in 2000 to 2010 average Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications climatic (MERRAclim) data. Models were run in the software program Maxent. Isothermality values often found in costal environments, had the greatest contribution to model performance. Model projections suggested that there are areas predicted to be suitable for Ae. Scapularis across portions of the Amazon Basin, the Yucatán Peninsula, the Florida Peninsula, and multiple Caribbean Islands. Additionally, model predictions suggested connectivity of highly suitable or relatively suitable environments spanning the United States Gulf Coast, which may facilitate the geographic expansion of this species. At least sixteen Florida counties were predicted to be highly suitable for Ae. scapularis, suggesting that vigilance is needed by vector control and public health agencies to recognize the further spread of this vector.

Geographic range estimates and environmental requirements for the harpy eagle derived from spatial models of current and past distribution

Understanding species-environment relationships is key to defining the spatial structure of species distributions and develop effective conservation plans. However, for many species, this baseline information does not exist. With reliable presence data, spatial models that predict geographic ranges and identify environmental processes regulating distribution are a cost-effective and rapid method to achieve this. Yet these spatial models are lacking for many rare and threatened species, particularly in tropical regions. The harpy eagle (Harpia harpyja) is a Neotropical forest raptor of conservation concern with a continental distribution across lowland tropical forests in Central and South America. Currently, the harpy eagle faces threats from habitat loss and persecution and is categorized as Near-Threatened by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Within a point process modeling (PPM) framework, we use presence-only occurrences with climatic and topographical predictors to estimate current and past distributions and define environmental requirements using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. The current PPM prediction had high calibration accuracy (Continuous Boyce Index = 0.838) and was robust to null expectations (pROC ratio = 1.407). Three predictors contributed 96% to the PPM prediction, with Climatic Moisture Index the most important (72.1%), followed by minimum temperature of the warmest month (15.6%) and Terrain Roughness Index (8.3%). Assessing distribution in environmental space confirmed the same predictors explaining distribution, along with precipitation in the wettest month. Our reclassified binary model estimated a current range size 11% smaller than the current IUCN range polygon. Paleoclimatic projections combined with the current model predicted stable climatic refugia in the central Amazon, Guyana, eastern Colombia, and Panama. We propose a data-driven geographic range to complement the current IUCN range estimate and that despite its continental distribution, this tropical forest raptor is highly specialized to specific environmental requirements.

Geographic abundance patterns explained by niche centrality hypothesis in two Chagas disease vectors in Latin America

Ecoepidemiological scenarios for Chagas disease transmission are complex, so vector control measures to decrease human–vector contact and prevent infection transmission are difficult to implement in all geographic contexts. This study assessed the geographic abundance patterns of two vector species of Chagas disease: Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848) and Rhodnius pallescens (Barber, 1932) in Latin America. We modeled their potential distribution using the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in Maxent and calculated distances to their niche centroid by fitting a minimum-volume ellipsoid. In addition, to determine which method would accurately explain geographic abundance patterns, we compared the correlation between population abundance and the distance to the ecological niche centroid (DNC) and between population abundance and Maxent environmental suitability. The potential distribution estimated for T. maculata showed that environmental suitability covers a large area, from Panama to Northern Brazil. R. pallescens showed a more restricted potential distribution, with environmental suitability covering mostly the coastal zone of Costa Rica and some areas in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico, northern Colombia, Acre, and Rondônia states in Brazil, as well as a small region of the western Brazilian Amazon. We found a negative slope in the relationship between population abundance and the DNC in both species. R. pallecens has a more extensive potential latitudinal range than previously reported, and the distribution model for T. maculata corroborates previous studies. In addition, population abundance increases according to the niche centroid proximity, indicating that population abundance is limited by the set of scenopoetic variables at coarser scales (non-interactive variables) used to determine the ecological niche. These findings might be used by public health agencies in Latin America to implement actions and support programs for disease prevention and vector control, identifying areas in which to expand entomological surveillance and maintain chemical control, in order to decrease human–vector contact.

Niche divergence and paleo-distributions of Lutzomyia longipalpis mitochondrial haplogroups (Diptera: Psychodidae)

Lutzomyia longipalpis is a complex of species which has a wide but discontinuous distribution from southeastern Mexico to northern Argentina and Uruguay. To date, eight mitochondrial haplogroups have been identified along its distribution although key environmental tolerances and ecological niche models have been analyzed only at the complex level. The aim of the present study was to analyze whether genetic diversification using three mitochondrial genes of the Lu. longipalpis complex is associated with niche divergence and to explore evolution of distributional projections of all haplogroups between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21,000 yrs ago) and the present. Current occurrence of all haplogroups was used to develop ecological niche models (ENM) and these were projected in both periods to quantify and identify geographic area shifts. Environmental space was used to estimate niche similarity between major clades and pairwise between individual haplogroups. The two major Lu. longipalpis clades (Mex, CA, Col and Ven vs Arg and Bra) had significantly different environmental space, indicating niche divergence. Environmental space overlap of southern haplogroups was variable, with divergent niche, except between Arg and ArgBra. The most suitable regions for the ArgBra haplogroup were northeastern and southeastern Brazil, and the Gran Chaco region. In contrast, ENM of haplogroups within the northern major clade have significantly similar niche, with highest geographic ENM suitability along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts. The intensity and coverage of high suitability areas in the LGM decreased for most haplogroups in the present. Integrating ENM and phylogenetic analyses has allowed us to test hypotheses of niche similarity between Lu. longipalpis haplogroups and major clades, and to identify conserved distributional areas of haplogroups since the LGM, with the exception of Arg. Evidence for distributional shifts and overlap of haplogroups is important to analyze Leishmaniasis´ eco-epidemiology and to successfully monitor and control transmission.

Assessing geographic and climatic variables to predict the potential distribution of the visceral leishmaniasis vector Lutzomyia longipalpis in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease caused by the protozoa Leishmania chagasi, whose main vector in South America is Lutzomyia longipalpis. The disease was diagnosed in the Brazilian state of Espírito Santo (ES) for the first time in 1968. Currently, this disease has been considered endemic in 10 municipalities. Furthermore, the presence of L. longipalpis has been detected in eight other municipalities where the transmission has not been reported thus far. In this study, we performed species distribution modeling (SDM) to identify new and most likely receptive areas for VL transmission in ES. The sandflies were both actively and passively collected in various rural area of ES between 1986 and 2017. The collection points were georeferenced using a global positioning system device. Climatic data were retrieved from the WorldClim database, whereas geographic data were obtained from the National Institute for Space Research and the Integrated System of Geospatial Bases of the State of Espírito Santo. The maximum entropy algorithm was used through the MIAmaxent R package to train and test the distribution models for L. longipalpis. The major contributor to model generation was rocky outcrops, followed by temperature seasonality. The SDM predicted the expansion of the L. longipalpis-prone area in the Doce River Valley and limited the probability of expanding outside its watershed. Once the areas predicted suitable for L. longipalpis occurrence are determined, we can avoid the inefficient use of public resources in conducting canine serological surveys where the vector insect does not occur.

Slight temperature changes cause rapid transcriptomic responses in Trypanosoma cruzi metacyclic trypomastigotes

Background

Severe changes in temperature can affect the behavior and ecology of some infectious agents. Trypanosoma cruzi is a protozoan that causes Chagas disease. This parasite has high genetic variability and can be divided into six discrete typing units (DTUs). Trypanosoma cruzi also has a complex life-cycle, which includes the process of metacyclogenesis when non-infective epimastigote forms are differentiated into infective metacyclic trypomastigotes (MT). Studies in triatomines have shown that changes in temperature also affect the number and viability of MT.

Methods

The objective of this study was to evaluate how temperature affects the transcriptional profiles of T. cruzi I and II (TcI and TcII) MT by exposing parasites to two temperatures (27 °C and 28 °C) and comparing those to normal culture conditions at 26 °C. Subsequently, RNA-seq was conducted and differentially expressed genes were quantified and associated to metabolic pathways.

Results

A statistically significant difference was observed in the number of MT between the temperatures evaluated and the control, TcII DTU was not strongly affected to exposure to high temperatures compared to TcI. Similar results were found when we analyzed gene expression in this DTU, with the greatest number of differentially expressed genes being observed at 28 °C, which could indicate a dysregulation of different signaling pathways under this temperature. Chromosome analysis indicated that chromosome 1 harbored the highest number of changes for both DTUs for all thermal treatments. Finally, gene ontology (GO) analyses showed a decrease in the coding RNAs involved in the regulation of processes related to the metabolism of lipids and carbohydrates, the evasion of oxidative stress, and proteolysis and phosphorylation processes, and a decrease in RNAs coding to ribosomal proteins in TcI and TcII, along with an increase in the expression of surface metalloprotease GP63 in TcII.

Conclusions

Slight temperature shifts lead to increased cell death of metacyclic trypomastigotes because of the deregulation of gene expression of different processes essential for the TcI and TcII DTUs of T. cruzi.

Ecological niche models for sand fly species and predicted distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in Bahia state, Brazil

Visceral leishmaniasis is a public health problem in Brazil. This disease is endemic in most of Bahia state, with increasing reports of cases in new areas. Ecological niche models (ENM) can be used as a tool for predicting potential distribution for disease, vectors, and to identify risk factors associated with their distribution. In this study, ecological niche models (ENMs) were developed for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases and 12 sand fly species captured in Bahia state. Sand fly data was collected monthly by CDC light traps from July 2009 to December 2012. MODIS satellite imagery was used to calculate NDVI, NDMI, and NDWI vegetation indices, MODIS day and night land surface temperature (LST), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and 19 Bioclim variables were used to develop the ENM using the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Mean diurnal range was the variable that most contributed to all the models for sand flies, followed by precipitation in wettest month. For Lutzomyia longipalpis (L. longipalpis), annual precipitation, precipitation in wettest quarter, precipitation in wettest month, and NDVI were the most contributing variables. For the VL model, the variables that contributed most were precipitation in wettest month, annual precipitation, LST day, and temperature seasonality. L. longipalpis was the species with the widest potential distribution in the state. The identification of risk areas and factors associated with this distribution is fundamental to prioritize resource allocation and to improve the efficacy of the state's program for surveillance and control of VL.

Evaluating the spatial distribution of Leishmania parasites in Colombia from clinical samples and human isolates (1999 to 2016)

In Colombia, nine species of parasites of the genus Leishmania circulate in more than 20 sand fly species, putting at risk of contracting the disease approximately 60% of the population. The Federico Lleras Acosta Dermatological Center, a reference center in Colombia, has been treating patients with cutaneous and mucosal leishmaniasis for more than 15 years, identifying the infecting Leishmania species from different clinical samples, and recording systematically all the epidemiological and geographic information related to each diagnosed patient. With this valuable information, the objective of this work was to perform a long term and large-scale study, aiming to identify the Leishmania species circulating in Colombia from clinical samples from 1999 to 2016, and to assess their current and potential spatial distribution. In all, four Leishmania species were identified in 688 samples from 183 municipalities distributed in 28 of the 32 departments of the country, and 387 records were georeferenced, from 20 departments. The most widespread species was L. (V.) braziliensis, showing new collection records, and the species related to areas with highest leishmaniasis transmission was L. (V.) panamensis. Ecological niche models were built for the three species that had more than 20 georeferenced records, showing a potential distribution for L. (V.) braziliensis on 42% of the national territory mainly in the interandean valleys, and the Orinoquia and Amazon regions. Leishmania (V.) guyanensis potential distribution covers 36% of Colombia continental territory with a spatial distribution similar to that of L. (V.) braziliensis. There was a marked tendency of L. (V.) panamensis to be distributed in the northwest of the country occupying 35% of the national area and mainly in areas of transformed ecosystems. Species were identified in patients from areas where the occurrence of cases was unprecedented, which suggests that the distribution of Leishmania may be greater than currently known. To improve the predictive capacity of the models, we suggest incorporating, in future studies, Leishmania samples from vectors and reservoirs that have a greater dependence on environmental variables. Our results are an important tool for health systems because they allow potential areas of transmission and information gaps to be identified.

Inferring distributional shifts of epidemiologically important North and Central American sandflies from Pleistocene to future scenarios

Nine sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) are suspected or proven vectors of Leishmania spp. in the North and Central America region. The ecological niches for these nine species were modelled in three time periods and the overlaps for all time periods of the geographic predictions (G space), and of ecological dimensions using pairwise comparisons of equivalent niches (E space), were calculated. Two Nearctic, six Neotropical and one species in both bioregions occupied a reduced number of distribution areas. The ecological niche projections for most sandfly species other than Lutzomyia shannoni and Lutzomyia ovallesi have not expanded significantly since the Pleistocene. Only three species increase significantly to 2050, whereas all others remain stable. Lutzomyia longipalpis shared a similar ecological niche with more species than any other, although both L. longipalpis and Lutzomyia olmeca olmeca had conserved distributions over time. Climate change, at both regional and local levels, will play a significant role in the temporal and spatial distributions of sandfly species.

Revisiting area risk classification of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease of public health relevance in Brazil. To prioritize disease control measures, the Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde of Brazil's Ministry of Health (SVS/MH) uses retrospective human case counts from VL surveillance data to inform a municipality-based risk classification. In this study, we compared the underlying VL risk, using a spatiotemporal explicit Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM), with the risk classification currently in use by the Brazil's Ministry of Health. We aim to assess how well the current risk classes capture the underlying VL risk as modelled by the BHM.

METHODS

Annual counts of human VL cases and the population at risk for all Brazil's 5564 municipalities between 2004 and 2014 were used to fit a relative risk BHM. We then computed the predicted counts and exceedence risk for each municipality and classified them into four categories to allow comparison with the four risk categories by the SVS/MH.

RESULTS

Municipalities identified as high-risk by the model partially agreed with the current risk classification by the SVS/MH. Our results suggest that counts of VL cases may suffice as general indicators of the underlying risk, but can underestimate risks, especially in areas with intense transmission.

CONCLUSION

According to our BHM the SVS/MH risk classification underestimated the risk in several municipalities with moderate to intense VL transmission. Newly identified high-risk areas should be further evaluated to identify potential risk factors and assess the needs for additional surveillance and mitigation efforts.

Impacts of climate change on infestations of Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) on date palms in Oman

Climate change has determined shifts in distributions of species and is likely to affect species in the future. Our study aimed to (i) demonstrate the linkage between spatial climatic variability and the current and historical Dubas bug (Ommatissus lybicus Bergevin) distribution in Oman and (ii) model areas becoming highly suitable for the pest in the future. The Dubas bug is a pest of date palm trees that can reduce the crop yield by 50% under future climate scenarios in Oman. Projections were made in three species distribution models; generalized linear model, maximum entropy, boosted regression tree using of four global circulation models (GCMs) (a) HadGEM2, (b) CCSM4, (c) MIROC5 and (d) HadGEM2-AO, under four representative concentration pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. We utilized the most commonly used threshold of maximum sensitivity + specificity for classifying outputs. Results indicated that northern Oman is currently at great risk of Dubas bug infestations (highly suitable climatically) and the infestations level will remain high in 2050 and 2070. Other non-climatic integrated pest management methods may be greater value than climatic parameters for monitoring infestation levels, and may provide more effective strategies to manage Dubas bug infestations in Oman. This would ensure the continuing competitiveness of Oman in the global date fruit market and preserve national yields.

The effect of temperature increase on the development of Rhodnius prolixus and the course of Trypanosoma cruzi metacyclogenesis

The increase in the global land temperature, expected under predictions of climate change, can directly affect the transmission of some infectious diseases, including Chagas disease, an anthropozoonosis caused by Trypanosoma cruzi and transmitted by arthropod vectors of the subfamily Triatominae. This work seeks to study the effects of temperature on the development of the life cycle, fertility and fecundity of the insect vector Rhodnius prolixus and on the metacyclogenesis of T. cruzi. All of the variables were subjected to 3 temperatures: 26°C, 28°C and 30°C. Hatching time was evaluated, along with time to fifth instar, time to adult, fecundity studied using the e-value, and egg viability during the first 3 reproductive cycles. In addition, the amounts of metacyclic trypomastigotes of the TcI and TcII DTUs in R. prolixus were evaluated from days 2 to 20 at two-day intervals and from weeks 6 to 8 post-infection. Decreases were observed in time to hatching (15–10 days on average) and in time to fifth instar (70–60 days on average) and transition to adult (100–85 days on average). No significant differences in egg viability were observed in any of the reproductive cycles evaluated, but an increase in fecundity was observed at 30°C during the third reproductive cycle. At 30°C, there was also an increase in the number of infective forms and a decrease in the time at which metacyclic trypomastigotes were detected in the rectal ampulla of the insects for both TcI and TcII. According to these results, the expected temperature increase under climate change would cause an increase in the number of insects and a greater probability of infection of the parasite, which affects the transmission of Chagas disease.

Chagas disease is an anthropozoonosis caused by the flagellated protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi and mainly transmitted through the infected faeces of insects of the subfamily Triatominae. Because these insects are sensitive to climatic conditions, it is expected that disease transmission may be affected by the increase in global land temperature, predicted under climate change. Therefore, we wanted to evaluate the effect of temperature increase on the development, viability of eggs and fertility of R. prolixus, the most important vector insect in Colombia, and on the development of the parasite within this insect. We observed a decrease in the development time of R. prolixus and an increase in the number of infectious forms of T. cruzi in the insect as the temperature increased. These results suggest that if the temperature increases as expected, there may be an increase in the number of insects that can transmit the disease, as well as an increase in the likelihood of infection due to the increase in the number of infectious forms. Our data contributes to the understanding of the possible effects of the expected temperature increase under climate change on Chagas disease transmission and can be used to make predictive models that can more accurately predict the future of Chagas disease.

Ecological niche modelling and predicted geographic distribution of Lutzomyia cruzi, vector of Leishmania infantum in South America

In some transmission foci of Leishmania infantum in Brazil, Lutzomyia cruzi could be considered the main vector of this pathogen. In addition, L. cruzi is a permissive vector of L. amazonensis. Its geographical distribution seems to be restricted and limited to Cerrado and Pantanal biomes, which includes some areas in Brazil and Bolivia. Considering that predicting the distribution of the species involved in transmission cycles is an effective approach for assessing human disease risk, this study aims to predict the spatial distribution of L. cruzi using a multiscale ecological niche model based in both climate and habitat variables. Ecological niche modelling was used to identify areas in South America that are environmentally suitable for this particular vector species, but its presence is not recorded. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Bioclimatic variables, altitude, and land use and cover were used as predictors in five ecological niche model algorithms: BIOCLIM, generalised linear model (logistic regression), maximum entropy, random forests, and support vector machines. The vector occurs in areas where annual mean temperature values range from 21.76°C to 26.58°C, and annual total precipitation varies from 1005 mm and 2048 mm. Urban areas were most present around capture locations. The potential distribution area of L. cruzi according to the final ecological niche model spans Brazil and Bolivia in patches of suitable habitats inside a larger climatically favourable area. The bigger portion of this suitable area is located at Brazilian States of Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso. Our findings identified environmentally suitable areas for L. cruzi in regions without its known occurrence, so further field sampling of sand flies is recommended, especially in southern Goiás State, Mato Grosso do Sul (borders with Mato Grosso, São Paulo and Minas Gerais); and in Bolivian departments Santa Cruz and El Beni.

Genetic diversity, phylogeography and molecular clock of the Lutzomyia longipalpis complex (Diptera: Psychodidae)

BACKGROUND

The Lutzomyia longipalpis complex has a wide but discontinuous distribution in Latin America, extending throughout the Neotropical realm between Mexico and northern Argentina and Uruguay. In the Americas, this sandfly is the main vector of Leishmania infantum, the parasite responsible for Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). The Lu. longipalpis complex consists of at least four sibling species, however, there is no current consensus on the number of haplogroups, or on their divergence. Particularly in Argentina, there have been few genetic analyses of Lu. longipalpis, despite its southern expansion and recent colonization of urban environments. The aim of this study was to analyze the genetic diversity and structure of Lu. longipalpis from Argentina, and to integrate these data to re-evaluate the phylogeography of the Lu. longipalpis complex using mitochondrial markers at a Latin American scale.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Genetic diversity was estimated from six sites in Argentina, using a fragment of the ND4 and the 3´ extreme of the cyt b genes. Greatest genetic diversity was found in Tartagal, Santo Tomé and San Ignacio. There was high genetic differentiation of Lu. longipalpis in Argentina using both markers: ND4 (FST = 0.452, p < 0.0001), cyt b (FST = 0.201, p < 0.0001). Genetic and spatial Geneland analyses reveal the existence of two primary genetic clusters in Argentina, cluster 1: Tartagal, Santo Tomé, and San Ignacio; cluster 2: Puerto Iguazú, Clorinda, and Corrientes city. Phylogeographic analyses using ND4 and cyt b gene sequences available in GenBank from diverse geographic sites suggest greater divergence than previously reported. At least eight haplogroups (three of these identified in Argentina), each separated by multiple mutational steps using the ND4, are differentiated across the Neotropical realm. The divergence of the Lu. longipalpis complex from its most recent common ancestor (MRCA) was estimated to have occurred 0.70 MYA (95% HPD interval = 0.48-0.99 MYA).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study provides new evidence supporting two Lu. longipalpis genetic clusters and three of the total eight haplogroups circulating in Argentina. There was a high level of phylogeographic divergence among the eight haplogroups of the Lu. longipalpis complex across the Neotropical realm. These findings suggest the need to analyze vector competence, among other parameters intrinsic to a zoonosis, according to vector haplogroup, and to consider these in the design and surveillance of vector and transmission control strategies.