Long-term effect of sustained virological response on hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C in Canada

Higher FIB-4 index at baseline predicts development of liver cancer in a community-based cohort with viral hepatitis

Hepatitis B and C (HBV and HCV) testing has been performed in Japan since 2002 and is subsidized by central and prefectural governments. A follow-up program for HBV- or HCV-infected persons was started at that time in Ishikawa Prefecture. This study analyzed the long-term follow-up data from this program. In total, 1029 participants in the Ishikawa Hepatitis Follow-up Program (HBV-infected, n = 535; HCV-infected, n = 494) were enrolled. Clinical data between the first visit and the most recent visit by March 2019 were collected. In the HBV-infected group, 384 persons (71.8%) were asymptomatic carriers, 133 (24.9%) developed chronic hepatitis, 15 (2.8%) developed compensated liver cirrhosis, and 3 (0.6%) developed decompensated liver cirrhosis. Ninety (16.8%) were treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogs. Sixteen (3.0%) developed liver cancer. In the HCV-infected group, 427 persons (86.4%) developed chronic hepatitis, 46 (9.3%) developed compensated liver cirrhosis, and 21 (4.3%) developed decompensated liver cirrhosis. Forty-eight (9.7%) developed liver cancer. Three hundred and seventy-eight (76.5%) received antiviral therapy (a direct-acting antiviral in 166, interferon-based treatment followed by a direct-acting antiviral in 73, and interferon-based treatment in 139). The subsidy system was used by 270 persons (71.4%). Sustained virological response was confirmed in 340 persons (68.8%). A higher FIB-4 index at the first visit was a significant risk factor for liver cancer in HBV-infected and HCV-infected persons. The Ishikawa Hepatitis Follow-up Program has revealed the clinical course of HBV and HCV infection in community-dwelling individuals. The results will be used for micro-elimination at a prefectural level.

Chronic Hepatitis C Infection Treated with Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents and Occurrence/Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Does It Still Matter?

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a significant risk factor for liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Traditionally, the primary prevention strategy for HCV-associated HCC has focused on removing infection through antiviral regimes. Currently, highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) offer extraordinary success across all patient categories, including cirrhotics. Despite these advancements, recent studies have reported that even after sustained virologic response (SVR), individuals with advanced liver disease/cirrhosis at the time of DAA treatment may still face risks of HCC occurrence or recurrence. Based on this premise, this review tries to shed light on the multiple mechanisms that establish a tumorigenic environment, first, during chronic HCV infection and then, after eventual viral eradication by DAAs. Furthermore, it reviews evidence reported by recent observational studies stating that the use of DAAs is not associated with an increased risk of HCC development but rather, with a significantly lower chance of liver cancer compared with DAA-untreated patients. In addition, it seeks to provide some practical guidance for clinicians, helping them to manage HCC surveillance of patients who have achieved SVR with DAAs.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatitis C Virus Sustained Virologic Response Using a Random Survival Forest Model

PURPOSE

Postsustained virologic response (SVR) screening following clinical guidelines does not address individual risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our aim is to provide tailored screening for patients using machine learning to predict HCC incidence after SVR.

METHODS

Using clinical data from 1,028 SVR patients, we developed an HCC prediction model using a random survival forest (RSF). Model performance was assessed using Harrel's c-index and validated in an independent cohort of 737 SVR patients. Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) facilitated feature quantification, whereas optimal cutoffs were determined using maximally selected rank statistics. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare cumulative HCC incidence between risk groups.

RESULTS

We achieved c-index scores and 95% CIs of 0.90 (0.85 to 0.94) and 0.80 (0.74 to 0.85) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively, in a model using platelet count, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, sex, age, and ALT. Stratification resulted in four risk groups: low, intermediate, high, and very high. The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rates and 95% CIs for these groups were as follows: derivation: 0% (0 to 0), 3.8% (0.6 to 6.8), 26.2% (17.2 to 34.3), and 54.2% (20.2 to 73.7), respectively, and validation: 0.7% (0 to 1.6), 7.1% (2.7 to 11.3), 5.2% (0 to 10.8), and 28.6% (0 to 55.3), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The integration of RSF and SHAP enabled accurate HCC risk classification after SVR, which may facilitate individualized HCC screening strategies and more cost-effective care.

DAA treatment for HCV reduce risk of hepatocellular carcinoma: a 10-years follow-up study based on Chinese patients with hepatitis C

The long-term benefits of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy after achieving sustained virological response (SVR) remain uncertain in the Chinese population. This study evaluates the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), hepatic decompensation, and all-cause mortality among Chinese hepatitis C patients treated with DAAs. We included patients diagnosed since 2011 and followed them until November 1, 2022. The primary outcomes were HCC, hepatic decompensation, and mortality. Multivariable proportional hazards model was used to assess the impact of SVR and cirrhosis status. The cohort consisted of 1272 patients with SVR (92.1%) and 109 without SVR (7.9%), with a median follow-up of 61 months. The incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the SVR group (5.1 per 1000 person-years) compared to the no-SVR group (15.0 per 1000 person-years). Achieving SVR was associated with a significantly reduced risk of HCC (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.32; 95% CI 0.16-0.67). Cirrhosis was linked to an increased risk of developing HCC and hepatic decompensation. These findings highlight the importance of early DAA treatment, particularly for patients with cirrhosis.

External validation of models to predict hepatocellular carcinoma in Hepatitis C Virus cured F3-F4 patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Several hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk-models have been developed to individualise patient surveillance following sustained viral response (SVR) in Hepatitis C Virus patients. Validation of these models in different cohorts is an important step to incorporate a more personalised risk assessment in clinical practice. We aimed at applying these models to stratify the risk in our patients and potentially determine cost-saving associated with individualised HCC risk-stratification screening strategy.

METHODS

Patients with baseline F3-4 fibrosis treated with new oral direct-acting antivirals who had reached a SVR were regularly followed as part of the HCC surveillance strategy. Six models were applied: Pons, aMAP, Ioannou, HCC risk, Alonso and Semmler. Validation of the models was performed based on sensitivity and the proportion of patients labelled as "high risk".

RESULTS

After excluding 557 with less than 3 fibrosis, 12 without SVR, 18 with a follow up (FU) <1 year, 17 transplant recipients, 16 lost to FU and 31 with HCC at time of antiviral therapy, our cohort consisted of 349 F3-4 SVR patients. Twenty-three patients (6.6%) developed HCC after a median FU of 5.12 years. The sensitivity of the different models varied between 0.17 (Semmler7noalcohol) and 1 (Alonso A and aMAP). The lowest proportion of high-risk patients corresponded to the Semmler-noalcohol model (5%). Sixty-three and 90% of the Alonso A and aMAP patients, respectively were labelled as high risk. The most reliable HCC risk-model applied to our cohort to predict HCC development is the Alonso model (based on fibrosis stage assessed by liver stiffness measurements or Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) at baseline and after 1 year, and albumin levels at 1 year) with a-100% sensitivity in detecting HCC among those at high risk and 63% labelled as high risk. The application of the model would have saved the cost of 1290 ultrasound no longer being performed in the 37% low-risk group.

CONCLUSION

In our cohort, the Alonso A model allows the most reliable reduction in HCC screening resulting in safely stopping life-long monitoring in about a third of F3-F4 patients achieving SVR with DAAs.

Direct-acting antivirals failed to reduce the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis C virus associated cirrhosis: A real-world study

BACKGROUND

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) revolutionized the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated disease achieving high rates of sustained virological response (SVR). However, whether DAAs can reduce the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with HCV-associated cirrhosis who are at high risk have not been concluded.

AIM

To investigate the effect of DAAs on the occurrence of HCC in patients with HCV-associated cirrhosis after achieving SVR.

METHODS

Of 427 inpatients with HCV-associated cirrhosis were enrolled in Tianjin Second People's Hospital from January 2014 to April 2020. 118 patients weren't received antiviral treatment with any reasons named non-antiviral treatment group, and 236 patients obtained from the 309 DAAs treatment patients according to the propensity score matching named DAAs treatment group. Demographic information and laboratory data were collected from baseline and the following up. Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-Rank test were used to compare the incidence and cumulative incidence of HCC between the two groups. Cox proportional risk regression was used to re-evaluate the risk factors for HCC.

RESULTS

HCC incidence was 4.68/100PY (95%CI, 3.09-6.81) in the DAAs treatment group, while it was 3.00/100PY (95%CI, 1.50-5.37) in the non-antiviral treatment group, and the relative risk was 1.82 (95%CI, 0.93-3.53, P > 0.05). The incidence of HCC at 12, 24, 36 and 48 months was 3.39%, 6.36%, 8.47% and 10.17% in the DAAs treatment group, and it was 0%, 0%, 3.39% and 9.32% in the non-antiviral treatment group, respectively. Age > 58 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.089; 95%CI, 1.033-1.147; P = 0.002] and liver stiffness measurement > 27.85 kPa (HR = 1.043; 95%CI, 1.022-1.065; P = 0.000) were risk factors for HCC in all patients (n = 427), and DAAs treatment didn't show protective efficacy.

CONCLUSION

DAAs treatment seems failed to reduce the incidence of HCC occurrence in HCV-associated cirrhosis in 48 months, and even increased the incidence of HCC in 36 months.

Mono iso-centric VMAT planning for SBRT of multiple liver metastasis- A case report

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the second most common cause of cancer mortality worldwide. The risk factors associated with the development of HCC are chronic Hepatitis B, Hepatitis C, and alcoholic cirrhosis. The standard care for HCC is surgical resection but the scope is limited for some patients. Continuous advancement of radiation therapy enabled the technique of stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) as an option for the treatment of those cases for which surgery cannot be done. According to recent literature and meta-analysis, SBRT is an optimum treatment method with high local control with low toxicity. In SBRT, radiation is delivered with a smaller number of fractions than conventional radiation and employs high-precision delivery and accuracy with the help of image guidance. From a series of retrospective and prospective studies, it has been confirmed that SBRT achieves excellent local control in patients with early-stage inoperable, intermediate-stage, and advanced diseases.

BACKGROUND

A 42-year-old male patient related to HBeAg infection and high AFP levels developed HCC BCLC Stage A was admitted to our department. There were two lesions with PTV volumes of 41.07 cc and 9.573 cc with a distance between them of 3.51 cm. These two lesions were treated with a mono-isocentric VMAT planning with SBRT technique. In this case, we present an unusual clinical practice of mono-isocentric treatment planning for treating multiple liver lesions. Since radiation therapy was viewed as the primary form of treatment because the patient wasn't an ideal candidate for surgery, SBRT was selected as the patient's primary modality of treatment because of the tiny volume of the two lesions and the normal liver volume (>700cc). Triple-phase 4DCT was performed for simulation to account for the motion of target volume and normal structures. After delineating the target volume and other normal structures, treatment planning was done with a dose of 45 Gray which was to be delivered in 5 fractions. Two PTVs were created with a margin of 3.0 mm to IGTV. Considering the positions of the lesions, a single isocentre plan was created using a 6MV FFF photon beam for both the PTVs with the VMAT technique. The treatment was carried through with 3 arcs, one coplanar, and the other 2 non-coplanar. At the time of treatment, after the proper positioning of the patient, one CBCT image was taken to match with the planned CT image acquired at the time of the simulation. After applying the translational and rotational errors, the patient was treated.

RESULTS

The patient was treated successfully. After treatment, the condition of the patient was normal, and no toxicities have been observed in follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Mono isocentric VMAT planning can be used for closely spaced lesions considering the position of lesions and other normal structures in the vicinity.

HIV and HCV screening by non-infectious diseases physicians: can we improve testing and hidden infection rates?

Background

Missed opportunities for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) testing remain high. We aimed to ascertain the knowledge of screening guidelines and attitudes of non-infectious disease (ID) hospital physicians and assess the impact of a 1-h session on screening rates and diagnoses.

Methods

This interventional study consisted of a 1-h training session on HIV and HCV epidemiology and testing guidelines for non-ID physicians. Pre-and post-session questionnaires compared the knowledge of the guidelines and attitudes toward screening before and after the session. Rates of screening and diagnoses were compared in three 6 months periods: before, immediately after, and 24 months ±4 after the session.

Results

A total of 345 physicians from 31 departments participated in these sessions. Before the session, 19.9% (28% medical, 8% surgical) and 17.9% (30% medical, 2.7% surgical) were aware of HIV and HCV testing guidelines, respectively. The willingness to routinely test increased from 5.6 to 22%, whereas not ordering tests decreased from 34.1 to 2.4%. HIV screening rates significantly increased by 20% after the session (7.7 vs. 9.3 tests per 103 patients; p < 0.001), and the effect persisted until the long-term period. The HIV diagnosis rate increased globally (3.6 vs. 5.2 HIV diagnoses per 105 patients; p = 0.157), mainly because of medical services (4.7 vs. 7.7 per 105 patients; p = 0.082). The HCV screening rate increased significantly immediately and in the long term only in medical services (15.7 and 13.6%, respectively). The new active HCV infection rates increased immediately and declined steeply thereafter.

Conclusion

A short session for non-ID physicians can improve HIV/HCV screening, increase diagnosis, and contribute to disease elimination.

Hepatitis C care cascade in a large academic healthcare system, 2012 to 2018

To determine the hepatitis C virus (HCV) care cascade among persons who were born during 1945 to 1965 and received outpatient care on or after January 2014 at a large academic healthcare system. Deidentified electronic health record data in an existing research database were analyzed for this study. Laboratory test results for HCV antibody and HCV ribonucleic acid (RNA) indicated seropositivity and confirmatory testing. HCV genotyping was used as a proxy for linkage to care. A direct-acting antiviral (DAA) prescription indicated treatment initiation, an undetectable HCV RNA at least 20 weeks after initiation of antiviral treatment indicated a sustained virologic response. Of the 121,807 patients in the 1945 to 1965 birth cohort who received outpatient care between January 1, 2014 and June 30, 2017, 3399 (3%) patients were screened for HCV; 540 (16%) were seropositive. Among the seropositive, 442 (82%) had detectable HCV RNA, 68 (13%) had undetectable HCV RNA, and 30 (6%) lacked HCV RNA testing. Of the 442 viremic patients, 237 (54%) were linked to care, 65 (15%) initiated DAA treatment, and 32 (7%) achieved sustained virologic response. While only 3% were screened for HCV, the seroprevalence was high in the screened sample. Despite the established safety and efficacy of DAAs, only 15% initiated treatment during the study period. To achieve HCV elimination, improved HCV screening and linkage to HCV care and DAA treatment are needed.

Comparison of acknowledged hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in high-risk hepatitis C patients with sustained virological response

Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis are at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even after sustained virological response (SVR). Several HCC risk scores have been developed but which one is most suitable for this population is unclear. In this study, we compared the prediction ability of the aMAP model, THRI model, PAGE-B model and Models of HCV in a prospective hepatitis C cohort in order to propose better model(s) to clinical practice. Adult hepatitis C patients with baseline advanced fibrosis (141 cases), compensated cirrhosis (330 cases) and decompensated cirrhosis (80 cases) were included and followed up every 6 months for about 7 years or until HCC development. Demographic data, medical history and laboratory results were recorded. HCCs were diagnosed by radiography, AFP or liver histology. The median follow-up period was 69.93(60.99-74.93) months, during which 53 (9.62%) patients developed HCC. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of aMAP, THRI, PAGE-B and Models of HCV scores were 0.74, 0.72, 0.70 and 0.63 respectively. The predictive power of the aMAP model score was comparable to that of THRI, PAGE-Band higher than that of Models of HCV (p < 0.05). Dividing patients into non-high-risk and high-risk groups, the cumulative incidence rates of HCC based on aMAP, THRI, PAGE-B and Models of HCV was 5.57% vs. 24.17%, 1.10% vs. 13.90%, 5.80% vs. 15.90% and 6.41% vs. 13.81% (all p < 0.05). The AUC of the four models were all below 0.7 in male while all were higher than 0.7 in female. The performance of all the models was not influenced by fibrosis stage. aMAP, THRI model and PAGE-B model were all performed well while THRI model and PAGE-B model were easier to calculate. There was no need to select score according to fibrosis stage but should be caution when explain the results in male patients.

Hepatocellular carcinoma and hepatitis C virus treatments: The bold and the beautiful

The occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most serious complications of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Recently, effective antiviral medications have made sustained viral response (SVR) or cure a realistic therapeutic goal for most chronic HCV patients. Given HCV's tumorigenic propensity, it is not surprising that achieving SVR is helpful in preventing HCC. This review briefly summarizes and discusses the existing evidence on the relationship between hepatic carcinogenesis and viral eradication by antivirals, which is mainly divided into interferon-based and direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) based therapy. DAAs have changed the treatment landscape of chronic HCV, reaching high rates of SVR even in patients with advanced cirrhosis, with few contraindications and little side effects. Although some early reports suggested that DAA treatment increased the chance of HCC occurrence, more subsequent observational studies have refuted this theory. The probability of HCC recurrence after HCV eradication appears to be decreasing over time following SVR. Despite virological suppression/cure, individuals with liver cirrhosis are still at risk of HCC and should be monitored. There is a considerable need for markers/scores to predict the long-term risk of HCC in patients with HCV-related liver disease who attain SVR with direct-acting antivirals.

Thrombospondin-2 as a Predictive Biomarker for Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Hepatitis C Virus Elimination by Direct-Acting Antiviral

We evaluated the value of secreted glycoprotein thrombospondin-2 (TSP-2) to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients after Hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination by direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). A total of 786 CHC patients without an HCC history who achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) with DAAs were randomly assigned 2:1, with 524 patients as the derivation cohort and 262 patients as the validation cohort. Serum TSP-2 levels at the end of treatment were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In the derivation cohort, the cumulative HCC rate was significantly higher in the high TSP-2 group than in the low TSP-2 group. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that TSP-2, α-fetoprotein (AFP), and the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index were independent HCC risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the score calculated from these three factors (AFT score) for predicting HCC was 0.83, which was significantly higher than that of each factor alone (TSP-2: 0.70, AFP: 0.72, FIB-4: 0.69). The AFT score was used to stratify patients according to the risk of HCC occurrence in the validation cohort. Lastly, in patients with a FIB-4 index < 3.25, the serum TSP-2 levels could be used to identify those patients with a high risk of HCC occurrence. Serum TSP-2 levels are a predictive biomarker of HCC occurrence in CHC patients after HCV elimination by DAA treatment. The AFT score using TSP-2, AFP, and the FIB-4 index may identify those who require HCC surveillance.

Combined ultrasound and magnetic resonance elastography predict hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C virus eradication

AIM

Elastography is an established, noninvasive method for measuring liver stiffness using to 2-D shear-wave elastography (2D-SWE) or magnetic resonance elastography (MRE). The aim of this study was to determine the usefulness of combined measurement using 2D-SWE and MRE to stratify the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients who achieved hepatitis C virus eradication.

METHODS

Five hundred and twenty-five patients who underwent 2D-SWE and MRE before antiviral therapy and who achieved eradication were enrolled. The optimal 2D-SWE and MRE cutoff values were determined using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting HCC development. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and a Cox proportional hazards model were used to adjust the cumulative incidence rate of HCC development for potential imbalances.

RESULTS

Time-dependent ROC analysis showed that the optimal cut-off values of 2D-SWE and MRE for predicting HCC development were 11.7 and 4.5 kPa, respectively. The IPTW-adjusted cumulative incidence rate of HCC development in patients with both an 2D-SWE value ≥ 11.7 kPa and an MRE value ≥ 4.5 kPa had a higher hazard ratio (28.080; 95% confidence interval, 5.527-132.600; p < 0.001) than those with either an 2D-SWE value < 11.7 kPa or an MRE value < 4.5 kPa.

CONCLUSIONS

The combined measurement of 2D-SWE and MRE was very effective for identifying patients at high risk of HCC development. US-based elastography should be performed first, and if the 2D-SWE value is high, MRE should then be carried out to confirm the degree of liver stiffness.

Chronic Viral Hepatitis in Elite Athletes: Approaches to Risk Assessment, Prevention and Management

Elite athletes who participate in contact sports are at risk of bleeding injuries, leading to transmission of blood-borne viruses including hepatitis type B, C and D (HBV, HCV and HDV) capable of causing chronic liver disease, liver failure and liver cancer. In view of the significant advances in the viral hepatitis field over the past decade, more structured approaches should be in place to screen for and manage viral hepatitis in elite athletes. HBV status should be assessed in all elite athletes, and those infected should receive nucleos(t)ide analogues for viral suppression, while uninfected individuals should receive HBV vaccination. The all-oral direct acting antivirals for HCV are highly effective and safe, thus the remaining challenge with hepatitis C is case identification and linkage to care. HDV is only found in HBV-infected individuals, which is characterized by rapid disease progression and higher rates of cirrhosis and liver cancer in infected subjects. Pegylated interferon was the mainstay of treatment for HDV infection until bulevirtide, a viral entry inhibitor, was recently approved by the European Union (EMA) and FDA in America, while multiple novel therapies are already in clinical trials as part of the HBV cure program. Overall, awareness of chronic viral hepatitis in athletes should be improved. Prevention remains the cornerstone of the management of viral hepatitis in sport coupled with rigorous disease assessment in infected individuals, and antiviral therapy where indicated.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis c infection and stage 3 fibrosis after sustained virological response

Evidence on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with stage 3 liver fibrosis (F3) and SVR is scarce and continues to generate uncertainty. Furthermore, the distinction between F3 and F4 disease is complex. Consequently, the latest international guidelines recommend using the same screening protocol for HCC after SVR in both F3 and F4 patients. However, the risk of HCC in these groups is possibly different and maintaining screening for HCC in this population indefinitely generates an excessive burden for the health system. This editorial aims to review the available evidence on this topic.

Low Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Antiviral Therapy in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C and Hemophilia

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) rarely develops in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) who achieve sustained virological response (SVR). We assessed the incidence of HCC in CHC patients with hemophilia after treatment with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin (PegIFN/RBV) and direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Methods: Patients (n = 202) were enrolled between March 2007 and July 2019. A total of 139 patients were treated with PegIFN/RBV (genotype 1, n = 98; genotype 2, n = 41). Sixty-three patients were treated with DAAs (genotype 1, n = 44; genotype 2, n = 19). The cumulative incidence rates of HCC were estimated using the Kaplan−Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Results: For genotype 1, SVR was achieved in 78.6% (77/98) and 90.9% (40/44) of patients in the PegIFN/RBV and DAAs groups, respectively. For genotype 2, SVR was achieved in 95.1% (39/41) and 94.7% (18/19) of patients in the PegIFN/RBV and DAAs groups, respectively. Six HCC cases were identified. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 4.1% at 14 years in PegIFN/RBV and 1.7% at 5 years in DAAs. The 14-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 1.9% in the SVR group and 21.7% in the no-SVR group in the PegIFN/RBV group (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Treatment with PegIFN/RBV led to stable SVR and a low incidence of HCC. Although the follow-up period was short, DAAs led to more stable SVR than PegIFN/RBV and a low incidence of HCC in CHC patients with hemophilia.

Serum growth differentiation factor 15 predicts hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence after hepatitis C virus elimination

BACKGROUND

After hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination, patients should be followed up due to risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15) is a cytokine induced by mitochondrial dysfunction or oxidative stress. Aim To evaluate the prognostic value of GDF15 for HCC occurrence after HCV elimination.

METHODS

We measured GDF15 levels in stored serum from patients with chronic HCV infection without a history of HCC who had achieved sustained virological response with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). The patients were randomly divided into derivation (n = 964) and validation (n = 642) cohorts.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, serum GDF15 levels were higher in those with HCC occurrence after DAA treatment than in those without. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed baseline GDF15 (>1350 pg/mL, HR 2.54), AFP (>5 ng/mL, HR 2.00), and the FIB-4 index (>3.25, HR 2.69) to be independent risk factors for HCC. Scoring based on GDF15, AFP and the FIB-4 index stratified HCC occurrence risk. In the validation cohort, the cumulative HCC occurrence rate at 3 years was 0.64%, 3.27% and 15.3% in low-score (N = 171), medium-score (N = 300) and high-score (N = 166) groups, respectively. In the total cohort, scoring divided patients with a FIB-4 index ≤3.25, whose HCC occurrence rate was 2.0% at 3 years, into medium-score and low-score groups with HCC occurrence rates at 3 years of 3.76% and 0.24%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum GDF15 predicts de novo HCC occurrence. Scoring using GDF15, AFP, and the FIB-4 index can predict de novo HCC occurrence risk after HCV elimination.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma using age and liver stiffness on transient elastography after hepatitis C virus eradication

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is a useful tool for assessing advanced liver fibrosis, an important risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following hepatitis C (HCV) eradication. This study aimed to clarify the non-invasive factors associated with HCC following sustained virological response (SVR) and to identify the low-risk group. 567 patients without history of HCC who achieved SVR at 24 weeks (SVR24) after IFN-free treatment were retrospectively analyzed. The cumulative incidence of HCC and the risk factors were examined using pre-treatment and SVR24 data. The median observation period was 50.2 months. Thirty cases of HCC were observed, and the 4-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 5.9%. In multivariate analysis, significant pre-treatment factors were age ≥ 71 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.402) and LSM ≥ 9.2 kPa (HR: 6.328); SVR24 factors were age ≥ 71 years (HR: 2.689) and LSM ≥ 8.4 kPa (HR: 6.642). In cases with age < 71 years and LSM < 8.4 kPa at the time of SVR24, the 4-year cumulative incidence of HCC was as low as 1.1%. Both pre-treatment LSM (≥ 9.2 kPa) and SVR24 LSM (≥ 8.4 kPa) and age (≥ 71 years) are useful in predicting the risk of HCC after SVR with IFN-free treatment. Identification of low-risk individuals may improve the efficiency of follow-up.

Hepatitis C virus: A critical approach to who really needs treatment

Introduction of effective drugs in the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has prompted the World Health Organization to declare a global eradication target by 2030. Propositions have been made to screen the general population and treat all HCV carriers irrespective of the disease status. A year ago the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus appeared causing a worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 disease. Huge financial resources were redirected, and the pandemic became the first priority in every country. In this review, we examined the feasibility of the World Health Organization elimination program and the actual natural course of HCV infection. We also identified and analyzed certain comorbidity factors that may aggravate the progress of HCV and some marginalized subpopulations with characteristics favoring HCV dissemination. Alcohol consumption, HIV coinfection and the presence of components of metabolic syndrome including obesity, hyperuricemia and overt diabetes were comorbidities mostly responsible for increased liver-related morbidity and mortality of HCV. We also examined the significance of special subpopulations like people who inject drugs and males having sex with males. Finally, we proposed a different micro-elimination screening and treatment program that can be implemented in all countries irrespective of income. We suggest that screening and treatment of HCV carriers should be limited only in these particular groups.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Viral Hepatitis: Where Do We Stand?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the major causes of cancer-related death. Although the burden of alcohol- and NASH-related HCC is growing, chronic viral hepatitis (HBV and HCV) remains a major cause of HCC development worldwide. The pathophysiology of viral-related HCC includes liver inflammation, oxidative stress, and deregulation of cell signaling pathways. HBV is particularly oncogenic because, contrary to HCV, integrates in the cell DNA and persists despite virological suppression by nucleotide analogues. Surveillance by six-month ultrasound is recommended in patients with cirrhosis and in "high-risk" patients with chronic HBV infection. Antiviral therapy reduces the risks of development and recurrence of HCC; however, patients with advanced chronic liver disease remain at risk of HCC despite virological suppression/cure and should therefore continue surveillance. Multiple scores have been developed in patients with chronic hepatitis B to predict the risk of HCC development and may be used to stratify individual patient's risk. In patients with HCV-related liver disease who achieve sustained virological response by direct acting antivirals, there is a strong need for markers/scores to predict long-term risk of HCC. In this review, we discuss the most recent advances regarding viral-related HCC.

Long-term Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy in Compensated Liver Cirrhosis Induced by Hepatitis C Virus Infection

Background: Considering the excellent safety profile and the high efficacy rates, great benefits were expected with the availability of the new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in treating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Following the publication of two articles in 2016 on the high incidence rates of hepatocelullar carcinoma (HCC) following DAAs, several papers revealed contradictory results, thereby casting shadows on the role of DAAs in hepatocarcinogenesis. Objectives: The present study aimed to assess the incidence and risk factors of HCC in patients with HCV genotype 1b infection and compensated cirrhosis with the sustained virological response (SVR) following DAAs. Methods: This multicentric prospective study encompassed 479 patients with HCV genotype 1b compensated cirrhosis treated with paritaprevir/ritonavir/ombitasvir and dasabuvir (PrOD) +/- ribavirin (RBV) for 12 weeks in two tertiary centers in Northeastern Romania. The patients were prospectively followed up in the Institute of Gastroenterology Iasi, Romania, from November 2015 to December 2020. Results: During the follow-up period (mean 60.11 ± 3.87 months), 23 patients (4.8%) developed HCC. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 1.1, 1.9, and 2.6%, respectively. At the time of the diagnosis, 15 patients (65%) had a single tumor, 12 patients (52.2%) were within the Milan criteria, and nine persons (39%) had Barcelona liver cancer stage 0-A. In this regard, the mean AFP level was 35.3 ± 93.1 ng/mL. A multivariate analysis, age above 65 years, and a cutoff point of AFP ≥ 10 ng/mL at the end of treatment were independent factors associated with HCC. A majority of the patients (n = 11, 47.8%) received curative treatment by surgical resection. In this study, histopathological examination identified a moderately differentiated tumor (G2) in 5 patients, five patients had a poorly differentiated tumor (G3), and only one patient had a well-differentiated tumor (G1). Conclusions: Our study revealed no evidence of the high incidence rate of HCC after the long-term follow-up of patients with HCV-related liver cirrhosis and SVR following DAA treatment. However, the cumulative 5-year risk remained above the cutoff point, and this makes the HCC screening cost-effective. The HCC occurrence appears to be associated with aging and a moderately increased AFP level at EOT (≥ 10 ng/mL).

Hepatitis C Virus Vaccine Research: Time to Put Up or Shut Up

Unless urgently needed to prevent a pandemic, the development of a viral vaccine should follow a rigorous scientific approach. Each vaccine candidate should be designed considering the in-depth knowledge of protective immunity, followed by preclinical studies to assess immunogenicity and safety, and lastly, the evaluation of selected vaccines in human clinical trials. The recently concluded first phase II clinical trial of a human hepatitis C virus (HCV) vaccine followed this approach. Still, despite promising preclinical results, it failed to protect against chronic infection, raising grave concerns about our understanding of protective immunity. This setback, combined with the lack of HCV animal models and availability of new highly effective antivirals, has fueled ongoing discussions of using a controlled human infection model (CHIM) to test new HCV vaccine candidates. Before taking on such an approach, however, we must carefully weigh all the ethical and health consequences of human infection in the absence of a complete understanding of HCV immunity and pathogenesis. We know that there are significant gaps in our knowledge of adaptive immunity necessary to prevent chronic HCV infection. This review discusses our current understanding of HCV immunity and the critical gaps that should be filled before embarking upon new HCV vaccine trials. We discuss the importance of T cells, neutralizing antibodies, and HCV genetic diversity. We address if and how the animal HCV-like viruses can be used for conceptualizing effective HCV vaccines and what we have learned so far from these HCV surrogates. Finally, we propose a logical but narrow path forward for HCV vaccine development.

Global Utilization Trends of Direct Acting Antivirals (DAAs) during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Time Series Analysis

The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has placed a significant strain on hepatitis programs and interventions (screening, diagnosis, and treatment) at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. We sought to quantify changes in Direct Acting Antiviral (DAA) utilization among different countries during the pandemic. We conducted a cross-sectional time series analysis between 1 September 2018 and 31 August 2020, using the IQVIA MIDAS database, which contains DAA purchase data for 54 countries. We examined the percent change in DAA units dispensed (e.g., pills and capsules) from March to August 2019 to the same period of time in 2020 across the 54 countries. Interrupted time-series analysis was used to examine the impact of COVID-19 on monthly rates of DAA utilization across each of the major developed economies (G7 nations). Overall, 46 of 54 (85%) jurisdictions experienced a decline in DAA utilization during the pandemic, with an average of -43% (range: -1% in Finland to -93% in Brazil). All high HCV prevalence (HCV prevalence > 2%) countries in the database experienced a decline in utilization, average -49% (range: -17% in Kazakhstan to -90% in Egypt). Across the G7 nations, we also observed a decreased trend in DAA utilization during the early months of the pandemic, with significant declines (p < 0.01) for Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. The global response to COVID-19 led to a large decrease in DAA utilization globally. Deliberate efforts to counteract the impact of COVID-19 on treatment delivery are needed to support the goal of HCV elimination.

Long-term effectiveness of population-wide multifaceted interventions for hepatocellular carcinoma in Taiwan

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Taiwan has launched a series of population-wide interventions to prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) related to hepatitis B and C virus infection since 1984. We took this opportunity to investigate the impact of each intervention on the incidence and case-fatality rate of HCC, and assessed their relative contributions to the overall reduction in mortality during this period.

METHODS

Population-based registry data on HCC mortality and incidence from individuals aged 0 to 84 years between 1979 and 2016 were collected before (Period 1) and after universal hepatitis B vaccination from 1984 (Period 2), universal health care from 1995 (Period 3), and viral hepatitis therapy from 2003 (Period 4). A Bayesian Poisson regression model was used for mortality decomposition analysis to estimate the respective contributions of these interventions to the reduction in age-specific incidence and case-fatality rates.

RESULTS

Mortality declined substantially in children, young- and middle-aged groups, but only slightly decreased in the elderly group. The declining trends in mortality were in part explained by incidence reduction and in part by a remarkable decline in case-fatality rate attributed to universal health care. Hepatitis B vaccination led to a 35.9% (26.8% to 44.4%) reduction in incidence for individuals aged 30 years or below, whereas antiviral therapy reduced the incidence of HCC by 14.9% (11.8% to 17.9%) and 15.4% (14.1% to 16.6%) for individuals aged 30-49 years and 50-69 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination and antiviral therapy were effective in reducing HCC incidence and mortality for the young and middle-aged groups, while the case-fatality rate was improved by universal health care for all age groups.

LAY SUMMARY

Since 1984, a series of population-wide interventions have been launched in Taiwan to prevent viral hepatitis-related hepatocellular carcinoma, including a universal hepatitis B vaccination program (from 1984), universal health care (from 1995), and a national viral hepatitis therapy program (from 2004). Vaccination and antiviral therapy were effective in reducing HCC incidence and mortality for the young and middle-aged groups, while the case-fatality rate was improved by universal health care for all age groups.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma by Liver Stiffness Measurements Using Magnetic Resonance Elastography After Eradicating Hepatitis C Virus

INTRODUCTION

Liver fibrosis stage is one of the most important factors in stratifying the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We evaluated the usefulness of liver stiffness measured by magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) to stratify the risk of developing HCC in patients who underwent MRE before receiving direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and subsequently achieved sustained virological response (SVR).

METHODS

A total of 537 consecutive patients with persistent hepatitis C virus who underwent initial MRE before DAA therapy and achieved SVR were enrolled. Factors associated with HCC development were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Albumin-bilirubin score ≥ -2.60 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 6.303), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score >3.25 (aHR 7.676), and MRE value ≥4.5 kPa (aHR 13.190) were associated with HCC development according to a univariate Cox proportional hazards model. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed that an MRE value ≥4.5 kPa (aHR 7.301) was the only factor independently associated with HCC development. Even in patients with an FIB-4 score >3.25, the cumulative incidence rate of HCC development in those with an MRE value <4.5 kPa was significantly lower than that in patients with an MRE value ≥4.5 kPa.

DISCUSSION

Liver stiffness measured by MRE before DAA therapy was an excellent marker for predicting subsequent HCC development in patients with hepatitis C virus infection who achieved SVR. The same results were observed in patients with high FIB-4 scores.

Hepatitis C and HIV combined screening in primary care: A cluster randomized trial

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV are major causes of worldwide disease. We aimed to evaluate the effect of a combined screening programme, which included a risk-assessment questionnaire and rapid tests for point-of-care diagnosis, on screening and new diagnosis rates. This prospective, cluster randomized study was carried out in primary care. The intervention arm included a 4-hour educational programme, the use of a risk-assessment questionnaire and rapid tests. In the control centres, only the educational intervention was provided. The main variables compared were the screening coverage and the number and rate of new HCV and HIV diagnoses. Of a total of 7991 participants, 4670 (58.5%) and 2894 (36.2%) presented a risk questionnaire for HIV or HCV, respectively. The younger participants, men and those from Latin America and Eastern Europe, showed the greatest risk of presenting with a positive questionnaire. The overall screening coverage was higher within the intervention arm (OR 17.7; 95% CI 16.2-19.5; P < .001). Only two HIV-positives were identified compared to one in control centres. The rate of HCV diagnoses was higher among intervention centres, with 37 versus seven positive tests (OR 5.2; 95% CI 2.3-11.6; P < .001). Of them, 10 were new diagnoses and 27 had been previously diagnosed, although not linked to care. In conclusion, a simple operational programme can lead to an increase in HCV and HIV screening rates, compared to an exclusively educational programme. The selection of at-risk patients with a self-questionnaire and the use of rapid tests significantly increased the diagnostic rate of HCV infection.

Serum biomarkers as an alternative to vibration controlled transient elastography in liver fibrosis staging in chronic hepatitis C

Background

Assessment of liver disease severity in chronic Hepatitis C (CHC) is essential both in pretreatment and posttreatment period. We assessed the impact of direct-acting antiviral therapy on liver stiffness regression measured by Vibration Controlled Transient Elastography (VCTE) in patients with CHC and evaluated the diagnostic performance of the APRI and FIB-4 scores compared to VCTE in detecting advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis (F3/F4).

Methodology

Retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with CHC who underwent VCTE before and after DAA therapy was done. APRI and FIB-4 scores were compared to VCTE.

Results

88 (56.78%) patients-12 (F3) and 76 (F4) according to VCTE, had advanced fibrosis pretreatment, which reduced to 69 (44.52%) - 10 (F3) and 59 (F4) after 12 weeks DAA therapy. Significant reduction in VCTE value from 14.08 ± 9.05 KPa to 11.84 ± 8.31 KPa (p=0.002) was noted. There is significant reduction in APRI, FIB-4 and GUCI score posttreatment which was not the case with Lok score and Bonacini score. Before therapy, FIB-4 outperformed others to predict advanced fibrosis with score >2.13 (AUC 0.93), having sensitivity 76%, specificity 96% and accuracy 86%. However posttreatment, APRI and GUCI score performed best to predict F3/F4 fibrosis with score >0.63 (AUC 0.97) and >0.64 (AUC 0.96), having sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 85%, 96.6% and 92% ; 85%, 6.6% and 92% respectively.

Conclusion

Before therapy, FIB-4 had the best accuracy in predicting advanced fibrosis whereas APRI and GUCI score were the best indices post-treatment.

HCC risk post-SVR with DAAs in East Asians: findings from the REAL-C cohort

BACKGROUND

Despite HCV cure, patients remain at risk for HCC, but risk factor data for HCC following SVR are limited for Asian patients.

METHODS

To address this gap, we analyzed 5814 patients (5646 SVR, 168 non-SVR) from the Real-World Evidence from the Asia Liver Consortium for HCV (REAL-C) who did not have HCC or a history of HCC at baseline (pre-DAA treatment) and did not develop HCC within 6 months of baseline. To assess the effect of SVR on HCC incidence, we used 1:4 propensity score matching [(PSM), age, sex, baseline cirrhosis, and baseline AFP] to balance the SVR and non-SVR groups.

RESULTS

In the PSM cohort (160 non-SVR and 612 SVR), the HCC incidence rate per 100 person years was higher in the non-SVR compared to the SVR group (5.26 vs. 1.94, p < 0.001). Achieving SVR was independently associated with decreased HCC risk (adjusted HR [aHR]: 0.41, p = 0.002). Next, we stratified the SVR cohort of 5646 patients to cirrhotic and noncirrhotic subgroups. Among cirrhotic SVR patients, aged ≥ 60, having an albumin bilirubin grade (ALBI) of 2 or 3 (aHR: 2.5, p < 0.001), and baseline AFP ≥ 10 ng/mL (aHR: 1.6, p = 0.001) were associated with higher HCC risk, while among the non-cirrhotic SVR group, only baseline AFP ≥ 10 ng/mL was significant (aHR: 4.26, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving SVR decreases HCC risk; however, among East Asians, patients with elevated pretreatment AFP remained at risk. Pretreatment AFP, an easily obtained serum marker, may provide both prognostic and surveillance value for HCC in East Asian patients who obtained SVR.

Hepatocellular carcinoma after direct-acting antiviral hepatitis C virus therapy: A debate near the end

Direct acting antivirals (DAAs) have revolutionized the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, achieving high rates (≥ 95%) of sustained virological response, with a good safety profile and high compliance rates. Consequently, it had been expected that viral clearance will reduce morbidity and mortality rates, as well as the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, since 2016, concerns have been raised over an unexpected high rate of HCC occurrence and recurrence after DAA therapy, which led to an avalanche of studies with contradictory results. We aimed to review the most recent and relevant articles regarding the risk of HCC after DAA treatment and identify the associated risk factors.

Hepatitis C virus associated hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver cancer is a global problem and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for about 85% of this cancer. In the USA, etiologies and risk factors for HCC include chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, diabetes, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), obesity, excessive alcohol drinking, exposure to tobacco smoke, and genetic factors. Chronic HCV infection appears to be associated with about 30% of HCC. Chronic HCV infection induces multistep changes in liver, involving metabolic disorders, steatosis, cirrhosis and HCC. Liver carcinogenesis requires initiation of neoplastic clones, and progression to clinically diagnose malignancy. Tumor progression associates with profound exhaustion of tumor-antigen-specific CD8⁺T cells, and accumulation of PD-1^hi CD8⁺T cells and Tregs. In this chapter, we provide a brief description of HCV and environmental/genetic factors, immune regulation, and highlight mechanisms of HCV associated HCC. We also underscore HCV treatment and recent paradigm of HCC progression, highlighted the current treatment and potential future therapeutic opportunities.

Assessment of Incidence of and Surveillance Burden for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among Patients With Hepatitis C in the Era of Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents

IMPORTANCE

In the US, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), primarily associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, is the fastest rising cause of cancer-related death. Wider use of highly effective direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) substantially reduces the burden of chronic HCV infection, but the subsequent impacts with HCV-associated HCC remain unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To assess projected changes in the incidence rate of and surveillance burden for HCC in the era of DAA treatment for HCV.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This decision analytical model study was performed from January 2019 to February 2020, using an individual-level state-transition simulation model to simulate disease progression, screening, and different waves of antiviral treatments for HCV in the US from 2012 to 2040.

INTERVENTIONS

Current clinical management for chronic HCV infection.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Model outcomes were projected temporal trends and age distribution of incident HCC cases and candidates for HCC surveillance among patients with viremia and patients with virologically cured HCV.

RESULTS

The simulation model projected that the annual incidence of HCC among patients with viremia and patients with virologically cured HCV will continue increasing to 24 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 18 000-31 000) cases until 2021. In patients with virologically cured HCV, incident HCC cases are projected to increase from 1000 (95% UI, 500-2100) in 2012 to the peak of 7000 (95% UI, 5000-9600) in 2031 with a subsequent decrease to 6000 (95% UI, 4300-8300) by 2040. The proportion of incident HCC cases that occur in individuals with virologically cured HCV is estimated to increase from 5.3% in 2012 to 45.8% in 2040. The number of candidates for HCC surveillance in the population with virologically cured HCV is projected to increase from 106 000 (95% UI, 70 000-178 000) in 2012 to the peak of 649 000 (95% UI, 512 000-824 000) in 2030 and decrease to 539 000 (95% UI, 421 000-687 000) by 2040, while the proportion of all candidates for surveillance who are virologically cured is estimated to increase from 8.5% to 64.6% during the same period. The average age of HCC incidence and surveillance candidates is estimated to increase from 55 in 2012 to 72 and 71, respectively, by 2040.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this study suggest that the burden of HCC will shift from patients with viremia to patients with virologically cured HCV, and to older populations. Appropriate management may be warranted for early detection of HCC in patients who may no longer be receiving specialty care for liver conditions.

A Viral Exposure Signature Defines Early Onset of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an aggressive malignancy with its global incidence and mortality rate continuing to rise, although early detection and surveillance are suboptimal. We performed serological profiling of the viral infection history in 899 individuals from an NCI-UMD case-control study using a synthetic human virome, VirScan. We developed a viral exposure signature and validated the results in a longitudinal cohort with 173 at-risk patients who had long-term follow-up for HCC development. Our viral exposure signature significantly associated with HCC status among at-risk individuals in the validation cohort (area under the curve: 0.91 [95% CI 0.87-0.96] at baseline and 0.98 [95% CI 0.97-1] at diagnosis). The signature identified cancer patients prior to a clinical diagnosis and was superior to alpha-fetoprotein. In summary, we established a viral exposure signature that can predict HCC among at-risk patients prior to a clinical diagnosis, which may be useful in HCC surveillance.

JSH Guidelines for the Management of Hepatitis C Virus Infection, 2019 Update; Protective Effect of Antiviral Therapy against Hepatocarcinogenesis

The Drafting Committee for Hepatitis Management Guidelines established by the Japan Society of Hepatology (JSH) drafted the first version of the clinical practice guidelines for the management of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in 2012. Since then, we have been publishing updates as new drugs for hepatitis C become available and new indications for existing drugs are added. The new approval of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir prompted us to publish the seventh version of the guidelines in Japanese in March 2019. We also published the first English-language version of the JSH guidelines in 2013 and English versions of updates made to the Japanese-language guidelines in 2014 and 2016. In 2020, the committee has decided to publish a new English version, covering general information about treatment for hepatitis C, drugs used, recommended treatments for chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis, and special populations, such as patients who have renal impairment, are on dialysis, or have developed recurrence of hepatitis C after liver transplantation. Furthermore, the committee has released a separate publication covering the protective effect of antiviral therapy against hepatocarcinogenesis.

Assessment of Treatment Strategies to Achieve Hepatitis C Elimination in Canada Using a Validated Model

Importance

Achievement of the World Health Organization (WHO) target of eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030 will require an increase in key services, including harm reduction, HCV screening, and HCV treatment initiatives in member countries. These data are not available for Canada but are important for informing a national HCV elimination strategy.

Objective

To use a decision analytical model to explore the association of different treatment strategies with HCV epidemiology and HCV-associated mortality in Canada and to assess the levels of service increase needed to meet the WHO elimination targets by 2030.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Study participants in this decision analytical model included individuals with hepatitis C virus infection in Canada. Five HCV treatment scenarios (optimistic, very aggressive, aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease) were applied using a previously validated Markov-type mathematical model. The optimistic and very aggressive treatment scenarios modeled a sustained annual treatment of 10 200 persons and 14 000 persons, respectively, from 2018 to 2030. The aggressive, gradual decrease, and rapid decrease scenarios assessed decreases in treatment uptake from 14 000 persons to 10 000 persons per year, 12 000 persons to 8500 persons per year, and 12 000 persons to 4500 persons per year, respectively, between 2018 and 2030.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hepatitis C virus prevalence and HCV-associated health outcomes were assessed for each of the 5 treatment scenarios with the goal of identifying strategies to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

Results

An estimated mean 180 142 persons (95% CI, 122 786-196 862 persons) in Canada had chronic HCV infection at the end of 2017. The optimistic and gradual decrease scenarios estimated a decrease in HCV prevalence from 180 142 persons to 37 246 persons and 37 721 persons, respectively, by 2030. Relative to 2015, this decrease in HCV prevalence was associated with 74%, 69%, and 69% reductions in the prevalence of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-associated mortality, respectively, leading to HCV elimination by 2030. More aggressive treatment uptake (very aggressive scenario) could result in goal achievement up to 3 years earlier than 2030, although a rapid decrease in the initiation of treatment (rapid decrease scenario) would preclude Canada from reaching the HCV elimination goal by 2030.

Conclusions and Relevance

The study findings suggest that Canada could meet the WHO goals for HCV elimination by 2030 by sustaining the current national HCV treatment rate during the next decade. This target will not be achieved if treatment uptake is allowed to decrease rapidly.

Direct-acting antivirals and interferon-based therapy on hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis-C patients

Aim: It was controversial whether direct-acting antiviral (DAA) is better than interferon-based therapy (IBT) in preventing HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Therefore, we accomplished this large, stepwise meta-analysis. Materials & methods: The PubMed, Cochrane and ScienceDirect were searched for studies published during January 2009-March 2019. Antiviral type, number of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients, number of HCC cases from CHC patients, sustained virological response (SVR) status and important covariate data were extracted from each study. Results & conclusion: It is demonstrated that antiviral treatment reduces the occurrence of HCC in patients with CHC; achieving SVR to antiviral treatment reduces HCC; DAA treatment is not better than IBT in the prophylaxis of HCC; DAA treatment and cirrhosis are independently associated with a higher incidence of HCC than IBT in middle-aged CHC patients who achieve SVR.

Long-term morbidity and mortality in a Canadian post-transfusion hepatitis C cohort: Over 15 years of follow-up

The Federal Government of Canada established a $1.1 billion compensation programme in 1999 to support individuals who acquired hepatitis C virus (HCV) through blood products between January 1986 and July 1990. We aimed to describe the morbidity and mortality of this unique post-transfusion cohort (n = 4550) followed for over 15 years from 2000 to 2016. The age-standardized mortality rates were compared with that of the Canadian general population and HCV cohorts from other countries. We evaluated all-cause mortality using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and HCV-related and unrelated mortality using competing risk models. The age-standardized all-cause and HCV-related mortality rates per 10 000 person-years were 127 (95% CI: 117-138) and 76 (95% CI: 69-85) for males, and 77 (95% CI: 69-87) and 43 (95% CI: 37-51) for females, respectively. The risk of death of the post-transfusion cohort was almost twice as high as the Canadian general population (rate ratio = 1.8; 95% CI: 1.7-1.9). All-cause, HCV-related and HCV-unrelated mortality were 20%, 12% and 8%, respectively at 15 years of follow-up. By comparison, HCV-related mortality rates per 10 000 person-years for population-based HCV cohorts varied from 18 and 11 in Australia to 65 and 43 in Scotland for males and females, respectively. We reported long-term follow-up data for the largest post-transfusion cohort in the literature. The all-cause mortality rates were markedly higher than that of the Canadian general population. We also showed that HCV-related mortality were greater compared to other HCV cohorts. This suggests that continued efforts to identify and treat post-transfusion HCV are warranted.

The population level care cascade for hepatitis C in British Columbia, Canada as of 2018: Impact of direct acting antivirals

BACKGROUND

Population-level monitoring of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected people across cascades of care identifies gaps in access and engagement in care and treatment. We characterized the population-level care cascade for HCV in British Columbia (BC), Canada before and after introduction of Direct Acting Antiviral (DAA) treatment.

METHODS

BC Hepatitis Testers Cohort (BC-HTC) includes 1.7 million individuals tested for HCV, HIV, reported cases of hepatitis B, and active tuberculosis in BC from 1990 to 2018 linked to medical visits, hospitalizations, cancers, prescription drugs and mortality data. We defined six HCV care cascade stages: (a) antibody diagnosed; (b) RNA tested; (c) RNA positive; (d) genotyped; (e) initiated treatment; and (f) achieved sustained virologic response (SVR).

RESULTS

We estimated 61 127 people were HCV antibody positive in BC in 2018 (undiagnosed: 7686, 13%; diagnosed: 53 441, 87%). Of those diagnosed, 83% (44 507) had HCV RNA testing, and of those RNA positive, 90% (28 716) were genotyped. Of those genotyped, 61% (17 441) received therapy, with 90% (15 672) reaching SVR. Individuals from older birth cohorts had lower progression to HCV RNA testing. While people who currently inject drugs had the highest proportional progression to RNA testing, this group had the lowest proportional treatment uptake.

CONCLUSIONS

Although gaps in HCV RNA and genotype testing after antibody diagnosis exist, the largest gap in the care cascade is treatment initiation, despite introduction of DAA treatment and removal of treatment eligibility restrictions. Further interventions are required to ensure testing and treatment is equitably accessible in BC.

Sustained virological response from interferon-based hepatitis C regimens is associated with reduced risk of extrahepatic manifestations

BACKGROUND & AIMS

HCV infection is associated with several extrahepatic manifestations (EHMs). We evaluated the impact of sustained virological response (SVR) on the risk of 7 EHMs that contribute to the burden of extrahepatic disease: type 2 diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease or end-stage renal disease, stroke, ischemic heart disease, major adverse cardiac events, mood and anxiety disorders, and rheumatoid arthritis.

METHODS

A longitudinal cohort study was conducted using data from the British Columbia Hepatitis Testers Cohort, which included ~1.3 million individuals screened for HCV. We identified all HCV-infected individuals who were treated with interferon-based therapies between 1999 and 2014. SVR was defined as a negative HCV RNA test ≥24 weeks post-treatment or after end-of-treatment, if unavailable. We computed adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios (asHR) for the effect of SVR on each EHM using competing risk proportional hazard models. Subgroup analyses by birth cohort, sex, injection drug exposure and genotype were also performed.

RESULTS

Overall, 10,264 HCV-infected individuals were treated with interferon, of whom 6,023 (59%) achieved SVR. Compared to those that failed treatment, EHM risk was significantly reduced among patients with SVR for type 2 diabetes mellitus (asHR 0.65; 95%CI 0.55-0.77), chronic kidney disease or end-stage renal disease (asHR 0.53; 95% CI 0.43-0.65), ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke (asHR 0.73; 95%CI 0.49-1.09), and mood and anxiety disorders (asHR 0.82; 95%CI 0.71-0.95), but not for ischemic heart disease (asHR 1.23; 95%CI 1.03-1.47), major adverse cardiac events (asHR 0.93; 95%CI 0.79-1.11) or rheumatoid arthritis (asHR 1.09; 95% CI 0.73-1.64).

CONCLUSIONS

SVR was associated with a reduction in the risk of several EHMs. Increased uptake of antiviral therapy may reduce the growing burden of EHMs in this population.

LAY SUMMARY

We estimated the rates of chronic comorbidities other than liver disease between those who were cured and those who failed treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Our findings showed that the rates of these non-liver diseases were largely reduced for those who were cured with interferon-based treatments. Early HCV treatments could provide many benefits in the prevention of various HCV complications beyond liver disease.

APASL HCV guidelines of virus-eradicated patients by DAA on how to monitor HCC occurrence and HBV reactivation

In the direct-acting antiviral (DAA) era for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, sustained virological response (SVR) is very high, but close attention must be paid to the possible occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and reactivation of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in patients with co-infection who achieved SVR in short term. HCC occurrence was more often observed in patients with previous HCC history. We found occurrence of HCC in 178 (29.6%) of 602 patients with previous HCC history (15.4 months mean follow-up post-DAA initiation) but, in contrast, in only 604 (1.3%) of 45,870 patients without previous HCC history (18.2 months mean follow-up). Thus, in these guidelines, we recommend the following: in patients with previous HCC history, surveillance at 4-month intervals for HCC by ultrasonography (US) and tumor markers should be performed. In patients without previous HCC history, surveillance at 6- to 12-month intervals for HCC including US is recommended until the long-term DAA treatment effects, especially for the resolution of liver fibrosis, are confirmed. This guideline also includes recommendations on how to follow-up patients who have been infected with both HCV and HBV. When HCV was eradicated in these HBsAg-positive patients or patients with previous HBV infection (anti-HBc and/or anti-HBs-positive), it was shown that HBV reactivation or HBV DNA reappearance was observed in 67 (41.4%) of 162 or 12 (0.9%) of 1317, respectively. For these co-infected patients, careful attention should be paid to HBV reactivation for 24 weeks post-treatment.

Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation: A Single-Center Experience

Background

There is a worldwide increase in use of liver transplantation (LT) for treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We analyzed our experience with LT for HCC to determine long-term and recurrence-free survival, accuracy of imaging diagnosis of HCC compared to the explant pathology, recurrence rate of HCC, and predictors of recurrence.

Material/Methods

The whole explant was examined by the same pathologist and compared with the baseline diagnosis established according to clinical, laboratory, and radiological data. A group of patients with pathologically confirmed HCC was characterized, with special attention to etiology, survival, recurrence, and diagnostic accuracy of imaging techniques.

Results

Among 718 patients transplanted from 2000 to 2018 in our center, HCC was found in 166 explanted livers. In 42 cases the clinical diagnosis of HCC was not accurate, being either false positive or negative; however, the specificity and sensitivity of CT/MRI in HCC recognition was 97.87% and 88.24%, respectively. Five- and 10-year survival was 81.27% and 66.57%, respectively, and it was inferior to the overall survival. The recurrence rate was 9.6% with a median time to recurrence of 14 months and a median survival time of 9 months. Poor differentiation of HCC and HCV etiology of the baseline disease, but not previous DAA treatment, were the risk factors of HCC recurrence.

Conclusions

Adherence to strictly defined selection criteria for LT in HCC patients guarantees the success of LT in HCC treatment.

No evidence for higher rates of hepatocellular carcinoma after direct-acting antiviral treatment: a meta-analysis

Aim:

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States. Achieving sustained viral response with interferon (IFN) treatment reduces the risk from 3%-5% to 0.5%-1% annually. Several studies reported unexpectedly high rates of HCC after treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). The aim of our study was to compare HCC rates in DAA-, IFN-treated and untreated populations.

Methods:

A literature search was conducted using ScienceDirect, Ovid®, Web of Science and MEDLINE through January 2019. Studies were included if they measured rates of de novo or recurrent HCC (following curative treatment) in HCV-infected persons. We included 138 studies (n = 177,512). Simple pooling of data and meta-analysis were performed, using the random effects method.

Results:

Mean age was higher in the DAA-treated vs. IFN-treated group (58.4 years vs. 52.6 years; P = 0.0073), as were diabetes prevalence (34.5% vs. 11.7%; P ≤ 0.001) and incident cirrhosis (47.8% vs. 34.2%, P = 0.0017). The incidence rate of de novo HCC was 2.01/100 person-years (py) (95%CI: 1.38, 2.67) in the DAA group and 1.45/100py (95%CI: 0.98, 1.94) in the IFN-treated group. HCC recurred at 16.76/100py (95%CI: 10.75, 22.91) in the DAA-treated group vs. 20.04/100py (95%CI: 2.58, 45.21) after IFN. After adjusting for factors such as age and cirrhosis, the hazard ratio was 0.58 (95%CI: 0.20, 1.07) for HCC occurrence and 0.59 (95%CI: 0.24, 1.03) for HCC recurrence after DAA treatment compared to IFN-based treatment.

Conclusion:

We did not find evidence for increased rates of HCC in DAA-treated compared with IFN-treated patients. Compared to those treated with IFN, older patients with additional risk factors for HCC were treated with DAAs. This imbalance appears to explain the higher numerical incidence of HCC among DAA-treated patients.

What is killing people with hepatitis C virus infection? Analysis of a population-based cohort in Canada

BACKGROUND

Persons with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are at risk of mortality from both chronic liver disease and HCV acquisition risk activities. We compared causes of death among HCV positive and negative individuals to characterize contributions of acquisition risks and viral sequelae.

METHODS

The British Columbia (BC) Hepatitis Testers Cohort (BC-HTC) includes all individuals tested for HCV or reported as a HCV case since 1992, linked to health administrative data. ICD-10 codes were used to classify deaths as: 1) liver-related (LR); 2) HCV acquisition risk-related (AR); and 3) other causes. Mortality proportions and trends were assessed among HCV positive and negative individuals overall and by birth cohort (born <1945, 1945-64 and ≥1965).

RESULTS

As of December 31, 2018, of 1,300,204 HCV-tested individuals, 20,049 (27.5%) HCV positive and 132,999 (10.2%) HCV negative individuals had died (median age at death: 56.4 vs. 74.5 years, respectively). HCV positive individuals were more likely than negatives to die from both AR (24.7%/4.2%) and LR (23.4%/6.2%) causes. Deaths among older HCV positive individuals were more likely to be LR while younger individuals were more likely AR: 1) birth cohort <1945 (25.3%/2.7%); 2) 1945-64 (26.5%/23.7%) and ≥1965 (7.7%/59.9%). Among HCV positives, LR mortality increased from 1992 to 2014, then declined sharply, coinciding with the introduction and uptake of direct-acting antiviral drugs. AR mortality increased from 1992 to 2000, declined slowly until 2013, then rapidly increased, coinciding with the recent surge in opioid overdose deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Curative HCV treatments reduce LR mortality, but typically will not impact AR mortality. This will need to be addressed if the World Health Organization 2030 HCV mortality reduction goals are to be achieved.

Aspartate Aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio or Fibros-4 Index Predicts the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients with Sustained Virologic Response to Interferon Therapy

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not completely eliminated in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients even after viral eradication. There are few studies in predicting the development of HCC using biomarker in CHC patients with sustained virologic response (SVR). We evaluated the role of the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) in predicting HCC development in 295 patients with SVR after interferon therapy. The annual incidence of HCC was 0.55% (95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.96). It was higher in patients with a pretreatment APRI ≥2.0 than in those with an APRI <2.0 (1.82% versus 0.17%; P = 0.0001) and in patients with a FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 compared with those with a FIB-4 < 3.25. (1.50% versus 0.07%; P = 0.0001). The annual incidence of HCC was higher in patients with a post-treatment APRI ≥0.5 than in those with an APRI <0.5 (1.67% versus 0.07%; P < 0.0001) and in patients with a post-treatment FIB-4 ≥ 2.5 compared with those with a FIB-4 < 2.5 (1.49% versus 0.01%; P = 0.0003). Among pretreatment variables, male gender, albumin, APRI, or FIB-4 were independent predictors for HCC. Among post-treatment variables, APRI or FIB-4 was an independent predictor for HCC. HCC surveillance should be performed in these high-risk patients.

Incidence and risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma change over time in patients with hepatitis C virus infection who achieved sustained virologic response

AIM

In patients with chronic hepatitis C, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs at a certain frequency, even if a sustained virologic response (SVR) is achieved by antiviral treatment. Old age, liver fibrosis, and high post-treatment α-fetoprotein (AFP) level are typical risk factors of post-SVR HCC. We examined whether the frequencies and factors of HCC in patients with an SVR achieved from interferon treatment changed. Methods Among patients prospectively registered for pegylated interferon and ribavirin treatment, 2021 with an SVR without HCC development during the treatment period were followed up. The mean observation period was 49.5 ± 26.2 months.

RESULTS

The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that older age, diabetes mellitus, advanced liver disease, and higher post-treatment AFP level were the independent risk factors throughout the observation period. The annual occurrence rate of HCC was 0.74% in the third year, 0.54% in the fourth year, and 0.40% in the fifth year; it gradually decreased from the third year. Because the time course hazards for HCC changed at 48 months, we separately analyzed its risk factors before and after this change point. The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that the four above-mentioned factors were significantly related to HCC development within 4 years. Conversely, the univariable Cox regression analysis only identified diabetes mellitus as a significant factor for HCC development after 4 years.

CONCLUSION

The frequency of HCC in hepatitis C patients who achieved an SVR from interferon treatment decreased during the observation period, and its risk factors changed between the early and late periods.

Trends in cause-specific mortality in HIV-hepatitis C coinfection following hepatitis C treatment scale-up

OBJECTIVE

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment may reduce liver-related mortality but with competing risks, other causes of mortality may undermine benefits. We examined changes in cause-specific mortality among HIV-HCV coinfected patients before and after scale-up of HCV treatment.

DESIGN

Prospective multicentre HIV-HCV cohort study in Canada.

METHODS

Cause-specific deaths, classified using a modified 'Coding of Cause of Death in HIV' protocol, were determined for two time periods, 2003-2012 and 2013-2017, stratified by age (20-49; 50-80 years). Comparison of trends between periods was performed using Poisson regression. To account for competing risks, multinomial regression was used to estimate the cause-specific hazard ratios of time and age on cause of death, from which end-stage liver disease (ESLD)-specific 5-year cumulative incidence functions were estimated.

RESULTS

Overall, 1634 participants contributed 8248 person-years of follow-up; 273 (17%) died. Drug overdose was the most common cause of death overall, followed by ESLD and smoking-related deaths. In 2013-2017, ESLD was surpassed by drug overdose and smoking-related deaths among those aged 20-49 and 50-80, respectively. After accounting for competing risks, comparing 2003-2012 to 2013-2017, ESLD deaths declined (adjusted hazards ratio: 0.18, 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.62). However, both early and late period cumulative incidence functions demonstrated increased risk of death from ESLD for patients with poor HIV control and advanced fibrosis.

CONCLUSION

The gains made in overall mortality with HCV therapy may be thwarted if modifiable harms are not addressed. Although ESLD-related deaths have decreased over time, treatment should be further expanded, prioritizing those with advanced fibrosis.

Development and surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with sustained virologic response after antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major risk factor for liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and is a leading cause of liver-related deaths worldwide. Recently available direct-acting antiviral agent is very safe and highly effective (>95% sustained virologic response, SVR) against all genotypes of HCV. Achievement of SVR has been associated with a significant reduction of hepatic decompensation, development of HCC, and liver-related mortality. However, HCC risk is not eliminated even after SVR. The annual incidences of HCC in advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis have been estimated to be up to 2.5-4.5% even in patients with SVR. Therefore, surveillance for HCC is recommended in this high-risk patients. In this review, we will describe the clinical outcomes and the risk of HCC in patients with SVR and suggest who should receive surveillance for HCC.