A tool to measure the economic impact of Hepatitis B elimination: A case study in Saudi Arabia

Expanding treatment indications in chronic hepatitis B: Should we treat all patients?

Nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) are first-line agents for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Current guidelines provide recommendations for NUC initiation, yet the guidelines are complex and restrictive. Accumulating data on hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication and HBV integration suggests that there are no real quiescent disease phases in CHB, and treatment-ineligible patients in current guidelines still have substantial risks of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Expanding CHB treatment indications can effectively reduce the risks of liver-related complications. Furthermore, treatment indication expansion can be cost-effective, and can simplify care pathways to remove treatment barriers. Potential caveats for treatment expansion include risks of non-compliance, long-term side effects from NUCs, and poor patient acceptability. Nonetheless, these caveats are not insurmountable, and the benefits of treatment expansion outweigh the disadvantages. There is consensus among hepatologists in supporting treatment indication expansion, although expert panels have varying recommendations on treatment strategies. A treat-all approach, which involves treating all CHB patients, has also been proposed. A treat-all strategy is straightforward, and should yield the greatest benefits from a population health perspective. However, the feasibility of new treatment strategies, especially the treat-all approach, is influenced by multiple factors including local epidemiology, healthcare resource availability, and socioeconomic factors. A one-size-fits-all approach is not optimal, and treatment expansion strategies that are tailored based on local data should yield the greatest impact toward hepatitis elimination.

The economic argument for hepatitis B treatment simplification and expansion

One component of decisions regarding hepatitis B virus (HBV) treatment simplification and expansion is the economic perspective. Literature was reviewed for studies which provide estimates for the economic impact of simplifying and expanding treatment eligibility. Eight published studies and four unpublished studies were included and all but one subset of one study found that expanding treatment criteria would result in programs that would be at minimum cost-effective and most often highly cost-effective.

The Efficacy of Post-Exposure Prophylaxis in Infants Born to HBsAg-Positive Mothers: A Single Center Experience in Saudi Arabia

Objectives. Post exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with the hepatitis B vaccine (HBVac) in combination with HBV immunoglobulins (HBIG) significantly minimizes the odds of vertical transmission of HBV to newborn infants. In this retrospective study, we aimed to evaluate the compliance and efficacy of PEP in a tertiary care center in Saudi Arabia. Methods. Infants were tested with HBV serological markers at 7 months of age to assess their PEP protection rate. Results. Out of 13,125 mothers who delivered in KAMC, 105 (0.8%) mothers were found to have HBsAg positive, with a prevalence of 8 per 1000 live births. All infants (n = 100) completed their PEP as per protocol before discharge from the hospital (2 days after delivery). Among infants (n = 59; 56.2%) who were tested at 7 months of age, all (100%) were found to be negative for HBV. Conclusion. PEP achieved 100% efficacy among infants who complied with the study protocol at 7 months of follow-up. The prevalence of hepatitis B among pregnant women was 8 per 1000 live births.

The burden of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and viral hepatitis in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Globally, viral hepatitis is decreasing, but nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), now metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), is increasing. We assessed the burden and trends of MASLD and viral hepatitis in Saudi Arabia.

METHODS

Prevalence, death, and disability data due to MASLD, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and hepatitis B virus (HBV) were obtained from 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for Saudi Arabia. Time trends were assessed by annual percent change (APC) from joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

From 2012 through 2019, MASLD prevalence in children and adults increased from 28.02% ( n = 8.34 million) to 33.11% ( n = 11.83 million); APC +2.43% (95% confidence interval: 2.33% to 2.54%). HBV prevalence decreased from 1.83% ( n = 0.54 million) to 1.53% ( n = 0.55 million); APC -1.74% (-2.66% to -0.81%). HCV prevalence stabilized from 0.72% ( n = 0.21 million) to 0.73% ( n = 0.26 million): APC +0.32% (-0.13% to 0.78%). Among adults (>20 years), MASLD prevalence increased from 40.64% to 43.95% (APC = +1.15%, 1.12% to 1.18%), HBV prevalence decreased from 2.67% to 2.05% (APC = -2.96%, -3.90% to -2.01%), and HCV leveled from 0.88% to 0.86% (APC = -0.30%, -0.75% to 0.16%). MASLD liver mortality rate from liver cancer and cirrhosis increased: APC of +1.15% (0.82% to 1.48%) from 1.31 to 1.43 (per 100,000). HBV and HCV liver mortality increased at slower rates (APC = +0.78%, 0.38% to 1.19%): 2.07 to 2.20 (per 100,000) and (APC = +0.55%, 0.09% to 0.89%): 6.32 to 6.61 (per 100,000), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

MASLD burden is increasing, while HBV and HCV burden is decreasing/remaining stable. Early prevention and diagnosis health policies for MASLD are needed.

Treat All versus targeted strategies to select HBV-infected people for antiviral therapy in The Gambia, west Africa: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Global elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) requires expanded uptake of antiviral therapy, potentially by simplifying testing algorithms, especially in resource-limited countries. We evaluated the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of three strategies that determine eligibility for anti-HBV treatment, as compared with the WHO 2015 treatment eligibility criteria, in The Gambia.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model of natural history using data from the Prevention of Liver Fibrosis and Cancer in Africa programme (known as PROLIFICA) in The Gambia, for an HBV-infected cohort of individuals aged 20 years. The algorithms included in the model were a conventional strategy using the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) 2017 criteria, a simplified algorithm using hepatitis B e antigen and alanine aminotransferase (the Treatment Eligibility in Africa for the Hepatitis B Virus [TREAT-B] score), a Treat All approach for all HBV-infected individuals, and the WHO 2015 criteria. Outcomes to measure effectiveness were disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life saved (YLS), which were used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with the WHO 2015 criteria as the base-case scenario. Costs were assessed from a modified social perspective. A budget impact analysis was also done. We tested the robustness of results with a range of sensitiviy analyses including probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

FINDINGS

Compared with the WHO criteria, TREAT-B resulted in 4877 DALYs averted and Treat All resulted in 9352 DALYs averted, whereas the EASL criteria led to an excess of 795 DALYs. TREAT-B was cost-saving, whereas the ICER for Treat All (US$2149 per DALY averted) was higher than the cost-effectiveness threshold for The Gambia (0·5 times the country's gross domestic product per capita: $352). These patterns did not change when YLS was the outcome. In a modelled cohort of 5000 adults (aged 20 years) with chronic HBV infection from The Gambia, the 5-year budget impact was $1·14 million for Treat All, $0·66 million for TREAT-B, $1·03 million for the WHO criteria, and $1·16 million for the EASL criteria. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that among the Treat All, EASL, and TREAT-B algorithms, Treat All would become the most preferred strategy only with a willingness-to-pay threshold exceeding approximately $72 000 per DALY averted or $110 000 per YLS.

INTERPRETATION

Although the Treat All strategy might be the most effective, it is unlikely to be cost-effective in The Gambia. A simplified strategy such as TREAT-B might be a cost-saving alternative.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council).

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Long-term health and economic benefits of switching to tenofovir alafenamide versus continuing on entecavir in chronic hepatitis B patients with low-level viremia in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Despite the success of current treatments, many chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients still live with low-level viremia [LLV] resulting in liver disease progression. This study evaluated the long-term health and economic impact of switching to tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) from entecavir (ETV) in Saudi Arabia (SA) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) LLV patients.

METHODS

A hybrid decision tree Markov state-transition model was developed to simulate a cohort of patients with CHB LLV treated with ETV and switched to TAF over a lifetime horizon in SA. While on treatment, patients either achieved complete virologic response (CVR) or maintained LLV. CVR patients experienced slower progression to advanced liver disease stages as compared to LLV patients. Demographic data, transition probabilities, treatment efficacy, health state costs, and utilities were sourced from published literature. Treatment costs were sourced from publicly available databases.

RESULTS

Base case analysis found that over a lifetime horizon, switching to TAF versus remaining on ETV increased the proportion of patients achieving CVR (76% versus 14%, respectively). Switching to TAF versus remaining on ETV resulted in a reduction in cases of compensated cirrhosis (-52%), decompensated cirrhosis (-5%), hepatocellular carcinoma (-22%), liver transplants (-12%), and a 37% reduction in liver-related deaths. Switching to TAF was cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $57,222, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times gross national income per capita [$65,790/QALY].

CONCLUSIONS

This model found that switching to TAF versus remaining on ETV in SA CHB LLV patients substantially reduced long-term CHB-related morbidity and mortality and was a cost-effective treatment strategy.

Epidemiology of Hepatitis B in Saudi Arabia from 2006 to 2021

Background

This study describes the epidemiological pattern of acute hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Saudi Arabia from 2006 to 2021. It explores case frequency and the crude incidence rate (CIR) by year of diagnosis, age group, region, gender, and nationality of patients.

Methods

Retrospective data on acute hepatitis B cases diagnosed across 20 regions of Saudi Arabia during January 2006 to December 2021 were obtained from the Saudi Ministry of Health's Statistical Yearbook. Statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS version 20.0, employing both parametric and non-parametric tests.

Results

The highest CIR was reported in the regions of Qunfudah, Jeddah, Tabuk, and Taif (28.6, 25.2, 25.1, and 23.4 per 100,000 people). In contrast, the lowest CIR was documented in the regions of Hail, Qurayyat, Jouf, and Hafr AL-Baten (3.6, 3.5, 2.9, and 1.2 per 100,000 people). Incidence rates were notably elevated in those aged 45 years and above (30.6 per 100,000 individuals), followed by the 15-44 age group (14.2 per 100,000 individuals), and were lowest in children aged 0-14 years (0.8 per 100,000 individuals). Regarding gender differences, HBV infection rates were 1.4 times higher in Saudi males than females and 2.2 times higher in non-Saudi males compared to females. Overall, Saudi nationals had a 4.2 times higher HBV infection rate than non-Saudis during the study period.

Conclusion

This study highlights diverse acute Hepatitis B infection rates across Saudi regions, with higher rates in Qunfudah, Jeddah, Tabuk, and Taif, and lower rates in Hail, Qurayyat, Jouf, and Hafr AL-Baten. Predominance among ages 45+, followed by 15-44, and lowest in 0-14 age groups was observed. Gender variations showed notably higher rates in Saudi and non-Saudi males. The notably higher prevalence among Saudi nationals implies key considerations for public health strategies.

Pathway to global elimination of hepatitis B: HBV cure is just the first step

Hepatitis B (HBV) is a major cause of global morbidity and mortality, and the leading cause of liver cancer worldwide. Significant advances have recently been made toward the development of a finite HBV treatment that achieves permanent loss of HBsAg and HBV DNA (so-called "HBV cure"), which could provide the means to eliminate HBV as a public health threat. However, the HBV cure is just one step toward achieving WHO HBV elimination targets by 2030, and much work must be done now to prepare for the successful implementation of the HBV cure. In this review, we describe the required steps to rapidly scale-up future HBV cure equitably. We present key actions required for successful HBV cure implementation, integrated within the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Sector Strategy (GHSS) 2022-2030 framework. Finally, we highlight what can be done now to progress toward the 2030 HBV elimination targets using available tools to ensure that we are preparing, but not waiting, for the cure.

Hepatitis B virus infection in Saudi Arabia and the UAE: Public health challenges and their remedial measures

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major public health concern globally with higher prevalence in Middle Eastern countries. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE face critical challenges in HBV treatment and management despite the implementation of a mass vaccination program. This review aimed to understand the gaps and unmet needs related to HBV infection, public health challenges associated with its diagnosis, and treatment barriers in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Additionally, the review aimed to provide the best practices in the HBV care pathway for effective remedial measures and disease reduction.

METHODS

The literature search was done from Pubmed.

RESULTS

The lack of disease awareness and knowledge about disease transmission among patients and their family members and healthcare professionals, lack of proper screening, underdiagnosis, social stigma, lack of established referral system, and treatment cost are the primary barriers to HBV diagnosis and management.

CONCLUSION

Appropriate healthcare initiatives should be undertaken to lower the disease burden in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Hepatitis delta virus infection prevalence, diagnosis and treatment in the Middle East: A scoping review

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection is a global public health concern, especially because of its unique existence in the presence of hepatitis B virus infection. HDV infection is estimated to affect 12 million people globally. Having a clearer understanding of its prevalence in all regions of the world is essential for helping direct preventive and early interventional treatment. This mini-review assessed the literature over the last 10 years to determine the prevalence, diagnostic means and treatment guidelines available for HDV in the Middle East. The search found limited data available in 21 articles, of which 18 were studies focused on Iran. Prevalence rates ranged dramatically among the countries, and none of the 12 countries included in the search had specific HDV guidelines. This review highlights the urgent need for more precise data for the Middle East region to help establish early diagnosis and treatment options for HDV.

Evidence for Benefits of Early Treatment Initiation for Chronic Hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is the most common cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. Antiviral treatment reduces the risk of HCC and mortality; nonetheless, globally in 2019, only 2.2% of CHB patients received treatment. Current international CHB guidelines recommend antiviral treatment only in subsets of patients with clear evidence of liver damage. This contrasts with hepatitis C or HIV where early treatment is recommended in all infected patients, regardless of end-organ damage. This narrative review aims to provide an overview of data on the early initiation of antiviral treatment and its related potential economic impact. Literature searches were performed using PubMed and abstracts from international liver congresses (2019-2021). Data on risk of disease progression and HCC and the impact of antiviral treatment in currently ineligible patients were summarized. Cost-effectiveness data on early antiviral treatment initiation were also collated. Accumulating molecular, clinical, and economic data suggest that early initiation of antiviral treatment could save many lives through HCC prevention in a highly cost-effective manner. In light of these data, we consider several alternative expanded treatment strategies that might further a simplified 'treatment as prevention' approach.

Cost-effectiveness modelling of birth and infant dose vaccination against hepatitis B virus in Ontario from 2020 to 2050

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization recommends universal birth dose vaccination for hepatitis B virus (HBV), yet only 3 provinces and territories in Canada provide birth dose vaccination, and Canadian-born children in Ontario are acquiring HBV before adolescent vaccination. We sought to determine whether birth and/or infant HBV vaccination is cost-effective.

METHODS

We used a dynamic HBV model that incorporates population by year, disease stage, sex and the influence of immigration to quantify the disease and economic burden of chronic HBV infection in Ontario from 2020 to 2050. We compared 4 vaccination scenarios, which included a birth dose vaccine and variations of the 2 subsequent doses (either alone or as a part of the hexavalent vaccine) and a hexavalent-only strategy in infancy with the current adolescent vaccination strategy. Our costing estimates were based on values from 2020.

RESULTS

All 4 infant vaccination approaches prevented an additional 550-560 acute and 160 chronic pediatric HBV infections from 2020 to 2050 compared with adolescent vaccination. Whereas birth dose could be cost-effective, incorporating vaccination into a hexavalent vaccine was cost saving. By 2050, the hexavalent approach led to $428 000 in cost savings per disability-adjusted life years averted.

INTERPRETATION

At the current prevalence in Ontario, a switch to birth dose or infant dose will be cost-effective or even cost saving. Introducing any form of infant HBV immunization in Ontario will prevent acute and chronic pediatric HBV infections.

LINK-B: study protocol of a retrospective and prospective project for identification and linkage to care of people living with hepatitis B in a large health area of Barcelona

INTRODUCTION

An estimated 290 million people are living with hepatitis B virus (HBV) worldwide; in Spain, the prevalence of hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) is 0.4%. In our setting, many HBsAg-positive individuals are not linked to care, which implies a barrier to receiving treatment and controlling the infection. The main objective of this project is to evaluate the performance of a programme designed to achieve appropriate linkage to specialist care of HBsAg-positive individuals, newly tested or previously tested and lost to follow-up.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a retrospective and prospective study in which all HBsAg-positive cases recorded in the microbiology database will be identified. The retrospective phase will include cases detected between 2018 and 2020, and the prospective phase will run from January 2021 to June 2022. The project will be carried out in a tertiary university hospital covering the northern health area of Barcelona with a catchment population of 450 000 inhabitants and 16 affiliated primary care centres. The central laboratory detects approximately 1200 HBsAg-positive individuals every year; therefore, we expect to identify around 4000 patients over the duration of the project. The medical records of HBsAg-positive individuals will be consulted to identify and retrieve those who have not been appropriately linked to care. Candidates will be contacted to offer specialist disease assessment and follow-up. A website will be created to provide HBV-related information to primary care physicians, and a mobile phone application will be available to patients to improve the linkage circuits and ensure follow-up continuity.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Vall d'Hebrón Hospital Ethics Committee (PR(AG)201/2021) and the Spanish Agency of Medicines and Medical Devices approved this study. The findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. This programme could increase the number of HBsAg-positive individuals properly linked to care and achieve better HBV monitoring, which will have a positive impact on WHO's viral hepatitis elimination goals.

It Is Time for a Simplified Approach to Hepatitis B Elimination

Background and Aims

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection continues to threaten millions of lives across the globe, despite universal vaccination efforts. Current guidelines for screening, vaccination, and treatment are complex and have left too many people undiagnosed or improperly managed. Antiviral therapy has been shown to significantly reduce the incidence of liver-related complications, including liver cancer. However, the complexity of existing guidelines can make it difficult to identify which patients to target for treatment, and recommendations that are difficult to implement in real-world settings pose a barrier to eligible patients to receive therapy and contribute to health disparities in HBV care. The goal of this global expert panel was to gain consensus on a streamlined approach to HBV care to facilitate implementation of HBV intervention and treatment, especially in the primary care setting.

Methods

A group of 8 liver and infectious disease specialists attended a meeting in January 2021 with the objective of gaining consensus on a streamlined algorithm for HBV care that would encourage implementation of HBV intervention and treatment.

Results

We have created a comprehensive perspective highlighting screening optimization, diagnostic workup, treatment, and monitoring. This treatment algorithm is designed to provide a streamlined visual pathway for risk stratification and management of patients with HBV that can be adapted in various care settings.

Conclusion

Simplification of guidelines will be critical to achieving health equity to address this public health threat and achieve HBV elimination.

Seroprotection of Hepatitis B Vaccine in Dental Students Two Decades after Infant Immunization and the Possible Need for Revaccination

OBJECTIVES

 This study aimed to assess hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs) persistence among dental students two decades after infant vaccination and immune response after revaccination or booster dose in nonimmune groups.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

 A cross-sectional study was performed using laboratory reports for anti-HBs performed to dental students at the Umm al-Qura University from 2016 to 2020. Reports were classified according to baseline antibody titer into group I (titer <10 mIU/mL), group II (titer 10 to <100 mIU/mL), and group III (titer ≥100 mIU/mL). The basal antibody titer of each group was correlated to student's gender and birth year and compared with postrevaccination or booster dose titer in groups I and II.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

 Data of baseline and postrevaccination anti-HBs antibody titers were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS). One-way ANOVA was used to compare between different means for antibody titers of students as well as baseline and postrevaccination antibody levels for nonimmune students with nonprotective antibody titers. Pairwise multiple comparison of the difference between baseline and postrevaccination anti-HBs antibody titers were done by post hoc Tukey's honestly significant difference (HSD) test. Chi-squared test was used for comparing between the frequencies. A p-Value of ≤0.05 was considered significant and p < 0.01 was considered highly significant.

RESULTS

 A significant percentage (73.6%) of students had antibody titer <10 mIU/mL, while only 4.8% had antibody titer ≥100 mIU/mL with nonsignificant difference between both genders (χ ² =3.784, p = 0.151). A statistically nonsignificant difference was also found between the three categories of anti-HBs antibody titers among students with different birth dates (χ ² = 13.817, p = 0.182). After revaccination of nonimmune students, 100% of them showed strongly protective antibody titers with mean of 842.88 to 844.58 mIU/mL. A highly significant difference was observed between the mean baseline and postrevaccination antibody titers in both genders, with a higher mean of post revaccination (p = 0.000).

CONCLUSION

 Two decades after infant immunization, a significant percentage of dental students failed to maintain the anti-HBs seroprotective titer. So titer measurement should be made compulsory before they begin their clinical training and revaccination or booster dose should be given to nonimmune students to maintain a high protection level.

Alsagaby S, Mir SA, Alaidarous M, Bin Dukhyil A, Alshehri B, Banawas S, Alturaiki W, Alharbi NK, Azad TA, Al Abdulmonem W. Seroprevalence of Viral Hepatitis B and C among Blood Donors in the Northern Region of Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B and C viral infections, which are the most common cause of liver infection worldwide, are major health issues around the globe. People with chronic hepatitis infections remain at risk of liver cirrhosis and hepatic carcinoma, while also being a risk to other diseases. These infections are highly contagious in nature, and the prevention of hepatitis B and C transmission during blood transfusion is a major challenge for healthcare workers. Although epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B and C infections in blood donors in Saudi Arabia have been previously investigated in multiple studies, due to targeted cohorts and the vast geographical distribution of Saudi Arabia, there are a lot of missing data points, which necessitates further investigations.

AIM OF THE STUDY

This study aimed to determine the prevalence of hepatitis B and hepatitis C viral infections among blood donors in the northern region of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

METHODS

To determine the given objectives, a retrospective study was performed which included data gathered from serological as well as nucleic acid test (NAT) screening of blood donors. Clinical data of 3733 blood donors were collected for a period of 2 years (from January 2019 to December 2020) at the blood bank of King Khalid General Hospital and the associated blood banks and donation camps in the region. Statistical analysis of the clinical data was performed using SPSS.

RESULTS

The blood samples of 3733 donors were analyzed to determine the seroprevalence of hepatitis B and C among the blood donors in the northern region of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Among the total of 3733 blood donors, 3645 (97.65%) were men and 88 (2.36%) were women. Most of the donors were younger than 27 years of age (n = 1494). The most frequent blood group in our study was O-positive (n = 1534), and the least frequent was AB-negative (n = 29). After statistically analyzing the clinical data, we observed that 7 (0.19%), 203 (5.44%) and 260 (6.96%) donor blood samples were positive for the HBV serological markers HBsAgs, HBsAbs and HBcAbs, respectively, and 12 (0.32%) blood samples reacted positively to anti-HCV antibodies. Moreover, 10 (0.27%) and 1 (0.027%) samples were NAT-HBV positive and NAT-HCV positive, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In the current study, low prevalence rates of HBV and HCV were observed in the blood donors. Statistical correlations indicated that both serological tests and NATs are highly effective in screening potential blood donors for HBV and HCV, which, in turn, prevents potential transfusion-transmitted hepatitis.

SASLT practice guidelines for the management of Hepatitis B virus - An update

Infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains an important public health problem with a high burden worldwide. The Saudi Association for the Study of Liver diseases and Transplantation formed a working group to develop HBV practice guidelines in Saudi Arabia. The methodology used to develop these guidelines was based on reviewing the available evidence, local data, and major international practice guidelines on the management of HBV. The aim of these guidelines is to assist healthcare providers in the management of HBV in Saudi Arabia. These updated guidelines summarize the latest local studies performed on HBV epidemiology, major changes in the prevalence of this virus, and advances in disease management.

The cost of a late-detected outbreak among people who inject drugs. A modeling study

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) are at risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). In 2009 and 2011, Athens, Greece experienced an HCV and an HIV outbreak among PWID, respectively. Of these, only the 2011 HIV outbreak was detected. However, the public health interventions implemented in response to the HIV outbreak tackled also indirectly the undetected HCV outbreak. The aim of this study is to highlight the potential benefits of an efficient notification system using as a case study the undetected 2009 HCV outbreak among PWID of Athens. More specifically, the study assesses whether an earlier implementation of the same public responses could diminish the scale of the HCV outbreak and estimates the potential cost-savings.

METHODS

A previous dynamic, stochastic, individual-based model was used to simulate HCV transmission among PWID of Athens, Greece. We calibrated the model to reproduce the observed HCV prevalence. We examined the effect of the non-detection scenario, the 1- or 2-years earlier detection scenarios and compared them to the status quo scenario.

RESULTS

Under the non-detection scenario, 2800 additional PWID would have been infected with HCV compared to the status quo by 2019. On the contrary, if the outbreak was detected 1- or 2- years earlier with immediate interventions, 440 and 970 HCV cases could be averted by 2019, respectively. Non-detection of the outbreak would cost an additional 43.2 (95% Credible interval: 2.7, 59.4) million euros to the healthcare system, compared to the status quo. On the other hand, if there was an efficient notification system to detect the HCV outbreak 1 or 2 years earlier, 6.8-15.6 million euros could have been saved by 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

An efficient notification system among PWID is a cost-saving investment that could detect on time and contain future outbreaks, and save valuable resources of the healthcare system.