An economic evaluation of salt reduction policies to reduce coronary heart disease in England: a policy modeling study

Policy models for preventative interventions in cardiometabolic diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs), including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM), are major contributors to morbidity, mortality, and rising healthcare costs. Effective disease prevention programs rely on robust mathematical models to generate long-term evidence regarding the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and policy implications of interventions in the population. Population-level interventions, such as dietary policies, are recognised as essential prevention strategies, yet there is limited syntheis of policy models assessing their impact. This study systematically reviews existing CMD policy models to provide: (i) a comprehensive overview of current models, and (ii) a critical appraisal of their application, particularly in the context of primordial prevention programmes.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted across MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), CINAHL, Google Scholar, and Open Grey. The search focused on publications from 1st January 2000, to 31st May 2024, using Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) for "cardiovascular," "diabetes," "decision model," and "policy model." Full-text articles were independently appraised independently by three reviewers using the Phillips et al. checklist, and the review process adhered to PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

Thirty-two articles met the inclusion criteria and were critically appraised. Policy models were assessed across three domains: structure, data, and consistency. Most models (79%) demonstrated well-defined structures, aligning inputs and objectives with the stated perspective and initial justifications. However, fewer than 60% of studies clearly reported the quality of their data sources and provided clear information in terms of consistency. The reviewed studies employed diverse methodologies, including parameter incorporation, simulation modelling, and outcome analysis.

CONCLUSION

The review highlights substantial heterogeneity in the quality, structure, and data use of policy models evaluating dietary interventions for CMD prevention. To advance CMD policy modeling, this study provides recommendations for improving conceptualisation, methodological rigor, and applicability to prevention programmes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered protocol at PROSPERO: CRD42022354399.

Evaluation of public health and economic impacts of dietary salt reduction initiatives on social security expenditures for cardiovascular disease control in Japan

Japan has undertaken extensive efforts to reduce dietary salt intake and prevent cardiovascular diseases. Although salt consumption has decreased over time, levels remain high, highlighting the need for continued promotion of low-salt food products through collaboration among government bodies, the food industry, academia, and other stakeholders. Effective policy development requires an environment that enables stakeholders to apply scientific evidence on the cost-effectiveness of salt reduction strategies. Our ongoing research focuses on developing simulation models to predict future public health and economic impacts, supporting the establishment of voluntary targets and evidence-based approaches. These strategies aim to lower salt intake, enhance health outcomes, and manage social security expenditures, thereby fostering sustainable development in an aging society.

Public health economic modelling in evaluations of salt and/or alcohol policies: a systematic scoping review

BACKGROUND

Public health economic modelling is an approach capable of managing the intricacies involved in evaluating interventions without direct observational evidence. It is used to estimate potential long-term health benefits and cost outcomes. The aim of this review was to determine the scope of health economic models in the evaluation of salt and/or alcohol interventions globally, to provide an overview of the literature and the modelling methods and structures used.

METHODS

Searches were conducted in Medline, Embase, and EconLit, and complemented with citation searching of key reviews. The searches were conducted between 13/11/2022 and 8/11/2023, with no limits to publication date. We applied a health economic search filter to select model-based economic evaluations of public health policies and interventions related to alcohol consumption, dietary salt intake, or both. Data on the study characteristics, modelling approaches, and the interventions were extracted and synthesised.

RESULTS

The search identified 1,958 articles, 82 of which were included. These included comparative risk assessments (29%), multistate lifetables (27%), Markov cohort (22%), microsimulation (13%), and other (9%) modelling methods. The included studies evaluated alcohol and/or salt interventions in a combined total of 64 countries. Policies from the UK (23%) and Australia (18%) were the most frequently evaluated. A total of 58% of the models evaluated salt policies, 38% evaluated alcohol policies, and only three (4% of included modelling studies) evaluated both alcohol- and salt-related policies. The range of diseases modelled covered diabetes and cardiovascular disease-related outcomes, cancers, and alcohol-attributable harm. Systolic blood pressure was a key intermediate risk factor in the excessive salt-to-disease modelling pathway for 40 (83%) of the salt modelling studies. The effects of alcohol consumption on adverse health effects were modelled directly using estimates of the relative risk of alcohol-attributable diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

This scoping review highlights the substantial utilisation of health economic modelling for estimating the health and economic impact of interventions targeting salt or alcohol consumption. The limited use of combined alcohol and salt policy models presents a pressing need for models that could explore their integrated risk factor pathways for cost-effectiveness comparisons between salt and alcohol policies to inform primary prevention policymaking.

The cost-effectiveness analysis of semaglutide for the treatment of adult and adolescent patients with overweight and obesity: a systematic review

PURPOSE

The present study aimed to systematically collect and synthesize available cost-effectiveness studies of semaglutide in patients with obesity or overweight in comparison with other interventions.

METHODS

We comprehensively searched multiple electronic databases to identify relevant literature. Studies were selected based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. The quality of studies was appraised using the "Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards" (CHEERS) tool. This study is conducted and reported following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement.

RESULTS

Out of a total of 252 items, after review, 32 articles were fully reviewed, and, finally, 7 studies met inclusion and exclusion criteria. The discount rate was in the range of 1.5-3.5%. Studies included showed semaglutide offered more QALYs than anti-obesity drugs but because of higher cost, in some cases, ICER exceeds the willingness to pay threshold. Results show that semaglutide creates higher total cost compared to conventional interventions in patients with class I, II, and III obesities. Results show that in patients with class I obesity (BMI 33) lifestyle intervention (LI), endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG), Sleeve gastrectomy (SG), and semaglutide create $124,195; $126,732; $139,971; and $370,776, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The current systematic review showed that semaglutide provides more QALYs and creates more costs in comparison with phentermine-topiramate, phentermine, and naltrexone-bupropion. Semaglutide may be cost-effective with substantial cost reduction. Semaglutide appears to be cost-effective versus diet and exercise (D&E) and liraglutide but it was not cost-effective versus sleeve gastrectomy, endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty, and gastric bypass.

Health and Economic Effects of Salt Reduction Interventions for Preventing Noncommunicable Diseases in Japan: A System Dynamics Simulation Study

Reducing salt intake is a vital public health measure for combating noncommunicable diseases and mitigating rising social security expenditures in Japan. We developed a system dynamics model to analyze the potential health and cost effects of salt reduction interventions among the Japanese population aged 40 years and above from 2012 to 2040. The simulation findings derived from the model indicate that, in the base run, the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are projected to be approximately 55 and 9.5 per 100,000 people, respectively, contributing approximately 40 trillion yen in social security expenditures by 2040. The model predicts that implementing mandatory reformulation could decrease DALYs for CVD and CKD by 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively, resulting in an approximately 6.7% reduction in social security expenditure. Additionally, voluntary reformulation is estimated to reduce the DALYs for CVD and CKD by 4.7% and 5.2%, leading to a 5.6% decrease in social security expenditure. Finally, accelerating the adoption of a low-salt diet is expected to lower the DALYs for CVD by 2.8% and CKD by 3.2%, thereby reducing social security expenditures by 3.4%. Thus, product reformulation initiatives have a greater impact on health and economic outcomes.

Benefits of population-level interventions for dementia risk factors: an economic modelling study for England

BACKGROUND

Individual-level interventions for dementia risk factors could reduce costs associated with dementia and some are cost-effective. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of population-level interventions for tackling dementia risk factors.

METHODS

In this economic modelling study, we included recommended population-based interventions from a previously published review article for which there was consistent and robust evidence of effectiveness in tackling a dementia risk factor (tobacco smoking, excess alcohol use, hypertension, obesity, air pollution, and head injury). We only included interventions if they had not been introduced in England or were in place but could be extended. The interventions studied were increases in tobacco pricing, minimum pricing for alcohol, raising alcohol price, salt reduction policies, sugar reduction policies, low emission zones, and compulsory helmet use for cycling by children (aged 5-18 years). We used published intervention effect sizes and relative risks for each risk factor and a Markov model to estimate progression to dementia in populations with and without the intervention, looking at lifetime risk, in the population of England.

FINDINGS

We estimated that reductions in excess alcohol use through minimum unit pricing would lead to cost-savings of £280 million and 4767 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained over an indefinite succession of age cohorts. Reformulation of food products to reduce salt would lead to cost-savings of £2·4 billion and 39 433 QALYs gained and reformulation to reduce sugar would lead to cost-savings of £1·046 billion and 17 985 QALYs gained. Reducing dementia risk from air pollution by introducing low emission zones in English cities with a population of 100 000 or more (that do not already impose restrictions) would lead to £260 million cost-savings and 5119 QALYs gained. Raising cigarette prices by 10% to reduce dementia risk from smoking would lead to 2277 QALYs gained and cost-savings of £157 million. Making bicycle helmets compulsory for children (aged 5-18 years) to reduce dementia risk from head injury would lead to cost-savings of £91 million and 1554 QALYs gained.

INTERPRETATION

Population-level interventions could help tackle life course dementia risk and save costs.

FUNDING

UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Three Schools dementia research programme.

Bioaccessibility of Mineral Nutrients in Plain Green Spanish-Style Manzanilla Table Olives Packaged in Nutrient Salt Mixtures

Table olives are high in salt, which can negatively impact cardiovascular health. It is essential to reduce their salt content to mitigate such risk. The objectives of the study were to develop an appropriate protocol to determine mineral bioaccessibility in green Spanish-style Manzanilla table olives and to use it to evaluate, for the first time, the effects of replacing 50% NaCl in the packaging brine with KCl, CaCl2, and MgCl2 on this characteristic. After testing, Miller's protocol with a post-digestion re-extraction was chosen. The mineral bioaccessibility found was as follows: Na, 93-98%; K, 94-100%; Ca, 19-27% (the lowest accessibility); Mg, 78-91% (moderately accessible); and non-added P, 55-67%. Bioaccessible amounts (mg/100 g pulp) of added minerals in runs were 151-503 for K, 53-109 for Ca, and 54-143 for Mg. The bioaccessible mineral vs. salt concentrations were modelled and plotted using RSM, illustrating the possible predictions from the tested range of combinations. The bioaccessibility of Ca and Mg was approximately 70% and 15% lower than the values indicated on the label based on the chemical analysis. The results discourage Ca fortification in packaging and suggest including bioaccessibility, markedly influenced by the food matrix, on the label for accurate nutritional information.

Salt Reduction and Iodine Fortification Policies Are Compatible: Perspectives for Public Health Advocacy

Cardiovascular diseases account for almost 18 million deaths annually, the most of all non-communicable diseases. The reduction of dietary salt consumption is a modifiable risk factor. The WHO recommends a daily sodium intake of <2000 mg but average consumption exceeds this in many countries globally. Strategies proposed to aid effective salt reduction policy include product reformulation, front of pack labelling, behavioural change campaigns and establishing a low-sodium-supportive environment. Yet, salt for household and processed food use is, in countries wholly or partially adopting a universal salt iodisation policy, the principal vehicle for population-wide iodine fortification. With salt reduction policies in place, there is concern that iodine deficiency disorders may re-emerge. Recognising the urgency to tackle the rising prevalence of NCDs yet not risk the re-emergence and detrimental effect of inadequate iodine intakes, this review lays out the feasibility of integrating both salt reduction and salt iodine fortification strategies. Reducing the burden of health risks associated with an excessive sodium intake or inadequate iodine through population-tailored, cost-effective strategies involving salt is both feasible and achievable, and represents an opportunity to improve outcomes in public health.

Relationships between sodium, fats and carbohydrates on blood pressure, cholesterol and HbA1c: an umbrella review of systematic reviews

Background

The relationship between nutrition and health is complex and the evidence to describe it broad and diffuse. This review brings together evidence for the effect of nutrients on cardiometabolic risk factors.

Methods

An umbrella review identified systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials and meta-analyses estimating the effects of fats, carbohydrates and sodium on blood pressure, cholesterol and haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library and Science Citation Index were search through 26 May 2020, with supplementary searches of grey literature and websites. English language systematic reviews and meta-analyses were included that assessed the effect of sodium, carbohydrates or fat on blood pressure, cholesterol and HbA1c. Reviews were purposively selected using a sampling framework matrix. The quality of evidence was assessed with A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews 2 (AMSTAR2) checklist, evidence synthesised in a narrative review and causal pathways diagram.

Results

Forty-three systematic reviews were included. Blood pressure was significantly associated with sodium, fibre and fat. Sodium, fats and carbohydrates were significantly associated with cholesterol. Monounsaturated fat, fibre and sugars were associated with HbA1c.

Conclusion

Multiple relationships between nutrients and cardiometabolic risk factors were identified and summarised in an accessible way for public health researchers. The review identifies associations, inconsistencies and gaps in evidence linking nutrition to cardiometabolic health.

The potential impact of policies and structural interventions in reducing cardiovascular disease and mortality: a systematic review of simulation-based studies

Background

The aim of the study was to investigate the potential effect of different structural interventions for preventing cardiovascular disease.

Methods

Medline and EMBASE were searched for peer-reviewed simulation-based studies of structural interventions for prevention of cardiovascular disease. We performed a systematic narrative synthesis.

Results

A total of 54 studies met the inclusion criteria. Diet, nutrition, tobacco and alcohol control and other programmes are among the policy simulation models explored. Food tax and subsidies, healthy food and lifestyles policies, palm oil tax, processed meat tax, reduction in ultra-processed foods, supplementary nutrition assistance programmes, stricter food policy and subsidised community-supported agriculture were among the diet and nutrition initiatives. Initiatives to reduce tobacco and alcohol use included a smoking ban, a national tobacco control initiative and a tax on alcohol. Others included the NHS Health Check, WHO 25 × 25 and air quality management policy.

Future work and limitations

There is significant heterogeneity in simulation models, making comparisons of output data impossible. While policy interventions typically include a variety of strategies, none of the models considered possible interrelationships between multiple policies or potential interactions. Research that investigates dose-response interactions between numerous modifications as well as longer-term clinical outcomes can help us better understand the potential impact of policy-level interventions.

Conclusions

The reviewed studies underscore the potential of structural interventions in addressing cardiovascular diseases. Notably, interventions in areas such as diet, tobacco, and alcohol control demonstrate a prospective decrease in cardiovascular incidents. However, to realize the full potential of such interventions, there is a pressing need for models that consider the interplay and cumulative impacts of multiple policies. Rigorous research into holistic and interconnected interventions will pave the way for more effective policy strategies in the future.

Study registration

The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019154836.

Funding

This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number 17/148/05.

Economic effects of dietary salt reduction policies for cardiovascular disease prevention in Japan: a simulation study of hypothetical scenarios

Objective

Reducing dietary salt intake is an essential population strategy for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but evidence on healthcare costs and outcomes is limited in Japan. We aimed to conduct a pilot economic evaluation under hypothetical scenarios of applying the salt reduction policies of England to Japan.

Methods

We examined salt reduction policies in England: media health promotion campaigns, front-of-pack labeling, and voluntary and mandatory reformulation with best-case and worst-case policy cost scenarios. We assumed that these policies were conducted in Japan for 10 years from 2019. We used published data on epidemiology and healthcare expenditures in Japan and the costs and effects of salt reduction policies in England, and defined the benefits as a decrease in national medical expenditures on CVD. We developed a Markov cohort simulation model of the Japanese population. To estimate the annual net benefits of each policy over 10 years, we subtracted monitoring and policy costs from the benefits. We adopted a health sector perspective and a 2% discount rate.

Results

The cumulative net benefit over 10 years was largest for mandatory reformulation (best case) at 2,015.1 million USD (with costs of USD 48.3 million and benefits of USD 2063.5 million), followed by voluntary reformulation (net benefit: USD 1,895.1 million, cost: USD 48.1 million, benefit: USD 1,943.2 million), mandatory reformulation (worst case, net benefit: USD 1,447.9 million, cost: USD 1,174.5 million, benefit: USD 2,622.3 million), labeling (net benefit: USD 159.5 million, cost: USD 91.6 million, benefit: USD 251.0 million), and a media campaign (net benefit: USD 140.5 million, cost: USD 110.5 million, benefit: USD 251.0 million). There was no change in the superiority or inferiority of policies when the uncertainty of model parameters was considered.

Conclusion

Mandatory reformulation with the best-case cost scenario might be economically preferable to the other alternatives in Japan. In future research, domestic data on costs and effects of salt reduction policies should be incorporated for model refinement.

Outcomes of a state-wide salt reduction initiative in adults living in Victoria, Australia

PURPOSE

To assess any effects of a state-wide sodium reduction intervention on sodium intake, sources of dietary sodium and discretionary salt use at a population level.

METHODS

Data (24-h urinary sodium excretion, self-report survey, a 24-h dietary recall) were collected cross-sectionally at baseline (2016/2017) and follow-up (2020) from adults in Victoria, Australia. Intervention activities included consumer awareness advertising campaign, public debate generation via mass media, strengthening existing policy initiatives and supporting food innovation with industry.

RESULTS

There were 339 participants at baseline and 211 at follow-up, with 144 and 90 of participants completing a 24-h dietary recall, respectively. There was no difference in adjusted 24-h urinary sodium excretion between baseline and follow-up (134 vs 131 mmol/24 h; p = 0.260). There were no differences in the percentage of participants adding salt during cooking (63% vs 68%; p = 0.244), adding salt at the table (34% vs 37%; p = 0.400) or regularly taking action to control salt/sodium intake (22% vs 21%; p = 0.793). There were large differences in the quantity of dietary sodium sourced from retail stores (57% vs 77%, p < 0.001), and less sodium was sourced from foods at fresh food markets (13% vs 2%; p ≤ 0.001) at follow-up. No large differences were apparent for foods with different levels of processing or for food groups.

CONCLUSION

There was no clear population-level effect of the 4-year multi-component Victorian Salt Reduction Intervention on sodium intake with Victorian adults continuing to consume sodium above recommended levels. The findings indicate that more intensive and sustained efforts aiming at the retail and food industry with national level support are likely to be required to achieve a measurable improvement in sodium intake at a state level.

Evaluation of a state-wide intervention on salt intake in primary schoolchildren living in Victoria, Australia

OBJECTIVE

In 2015, the Victorian Salt Reduction Partnership launched a 4-year multifaceted salt reduction intervention designed to reduce salt intake by 1 g/d in children and adults living in Victoria, Australia. Child-relevant intervention strategies included a consumer awareness campaign targeting parents and food industry engagement seeking to reduce salt levels in processed foods. This study aimed to assess trends in salt intake, dietary sources of salt and discretionary salt use in primary schoolchildren pre- and post-delivery of the intervention.

DESIGN

Repeated cross-sectional surveys were completed at baseline (2010-2013) and follow-up (2018-2019). Salt intake was measured via 24-h urinary Na excretion, discretionary salt use behaviours by self-report and sources of salt by 24-h dietary recall. Data were analysed with multivariable-adjusted regression models.

SETTING

Victoria, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Children aged 4-12 years.

RESULTS

Complete 24-h urine samples were collected from 666 children at baseline and 161 at follow-up. Mean salt intake remained unchanged from baseline (6·0; se 0·1 g/d) to follow-up (6·1; 0·4 g/d) (P = 0·36), and there were no clear differences in the food sources of salt and at both time points approximately 70 % of children exceeded Na intake recommendations. At follow-up, 14 % more parents (P = 0·001) reported adding salt during cooking, but child use of table salt and inclusion of a saltshaker on the table remained unchanged.

CONCLUSION

These findings show no beneficial effect of the Victorian Salt Reduction Partnership intervention on children's salt intake. More intensive, sustained and coordinated efforts between state and federal stakeholders are required.

The social cost of high sodium diet in Singapore

High sodium (Na) diet is one of the leading behavioural risks of disease identified in the Singapore Burden of Disease Study. We aim to estimate the cost attributable to a high Na diet in Singapore in 2019 from a societal perspective by employing a prevalence-based approach in cost-of-illness studies. We extracted national-level healthcare data and population attributable fractions by sex and age. Costs included direct and indirect costs from inpatient treatment and productivity losses. In 2019, the annual societal cost attributable to a high Na diet was conservatively estimated to be USA$262 million (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 218, 359 million). At least USA$67·8 million (95 % UI 48·4, 120 million) and USA$194 million (95 % UI 153, 274 million) could be saved on healthcare and indirect costs, respectively, if the daily Na intake of Singaporeans was reduced to an average of 3 g. Overall, males had higher costs compared with females at USA$221 million (95 % UI 174, 312 million) and USA$41·1 million (95 % UI 33·5, 61·7 million), respectively. Productivity loss from foregone wages due to premature mortality had the largest cost at USA$191 million (95 % UI 150, 271 million). CVD had the largest healthcare expenditure at USA$61·4 million (95 % UI 41·6, 113 million), driven by ischaemic heart disease at USA$41·0 million (95 % UI 21·4, 88·9 million). Our study found that reducing Na intake could reduce future healthcare expenditures and productivity losses. This result is vital for policy evaluation in a rapidly ageing society like Singapore, where the burden of diseases associated with high Na diet is expected to increase.

The perspective of hypertension and salt intake in Chinese population

Salt intake is too high nowadays. It has been widely recognized that there is a close relationship between hypertension (HTN) and dietary salt intake. Investigations reveal that long-term high salt intake, mainly sodium intake, induces a relevant increase in blood pressure in hypertensive and normotensive individuals. According to most scientific evidence, a diet with high salt intake in public increases cardiovascular risk, salted-related HTN, and other HTN-associated outcomes. Given the clinical importance, this review aims to present the prevalence of HTN and trends in salt intake in the Chinese population and will comprehensively discuss the risk factors, causes, and mechanisms of the association between salt intake and HTN. The review also highlights the education of Chinese people regarding salt intake and the cost-effectiveness of salt reduction from a global perspective. Finally, the review will emphasize the need to customize the unique Chinese practices to reduce salt intake and how awareness changes people's eating lifestyle and helps adopt diet salt reduction strategies.

Evaluation of a Salt-Reduction Consumer Awareness Campaign Targeted at Parents Residing in the State of Victoria, Australia

From 2015 to 2020 a state-wide salt-reduction initiative was launched in Victoria, Australia, including an awareness campaign focused on parents with children <18 years of age. To evaluate the impact of the campaign on salt-related knowledge, attitudes and behaviors (KABs) we have assessed trends in salt-related KAB pre- and post-delivery of the campaign in parents, as well as within the wider adult population. Cross-sectional surveys of adults aged 18-65 years were undertaken pre- (2015: n = 821 parents; n = 1527 general sample) and post-campaign (2019: n = 935 parents; n = 1747 general sample). KABs were assessed via an online survey. Data were analyzed with regression models and adjusted for covariates. Among parents, around one-quarter of salt-related KABs shifted in a positive direction, but changes were small: there was a 6% (95% CI 2, 11%) increase in the percentage who knew the main source of salt in the diet and reductions in the percentage who reported placing a salt shaker on the table (-8% (95%CI -12, -3)) and that their child added salt at the table (-5% (95% -9, -0.2)). Among the wider adult sample, even fewer shifts in KAB were observed, with some behaviors worsening at follow-up. These findings indicate that this consumer awareness campaign had minimum impact.

Estimating the impact of nutrition and physical activity policies with quasi-experimental methods and simulation modelling: an integrative review of methods, challenges and synergies

BACKGROUND

The promotion of healthy lifestyles has high priority on the global public health agenda. Evidence on the real-world (cost-)effectiveness of policies addressing nutrition and physical activity is needed. To estimate short-term policy impacts, quasi-experimental methods using observational data are useful, while simulation models can estimate long-term impacts. We review the methods, challenges and potential synergies of both approaches for the evaluation of nutrition and physical activity policies.

METHODS

We performed an integrative review applying purposive literature sampling techniques to synthesize original articles, systematic reviews and lessons learned from public international workshops conducted within the European Union Policy Evaluation Network.

RESULTS

We highlight data requirements for policy evaluations, discuss the distinct assumptions of instrumental variable, difference-in-difference, and regression discontinuity designs and describe the necessary robustness and falsification analyses to test them. Further, we summarize the specific assumptions of comparative risk assessment and Markov state-transition simulation models, including their extension to microsimulation. We describe the advantages and limitations of these modelling approaches and discuss future directions, such as the adequate consideration of heterogeneous policy responses. Finally, we highlight how quasi-experimental and simulation modelling methods can be integrated into an evidence cycle for policy evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

Assumptions of quasi-experimental and simulation modelling methods in policy evaluations should be credible, rigorously tested and transparently communicated. Both approaches can be applied synergistically within a coherent framework to compare policy implementation scenarios and improve the estimation of nutrition and physical activity policy impacts, including their distribution across population sub-groups.

Integrating nutrition and obesity prevention considerations into institutional investment decisions regarding food companies: Australian investment sector perspectives

BACKGROUND

There is growing recognition that current food systems are both unhealthy and unsustainable, and are increasingly shifting toward the supply and marketing of unhealthy, ultra-processed foods and beverages. Large food companies hold substantial power within food systems and present a significant barrier to progress on addressing issues related to nutrition and obesity prevention. Institutional investors (such as pension funds) play a key role in influencing corporate governance and practices, and are increasingly incorporating environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations within investment decisions. By considering nutrition and obesity prevention, institutional investors present a potential avenue for driving increased food industry accountability for their population health impact. This study investigated views of stakeholders in the Australian investment sector on the incorporation of nutrition and obesity prevention considerations within institutional investment decision-making regarding food companies.

METHODS

Fifteen in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted in 2020-21. Participants were predominantly Australian-based, and included representatives from asset management companies, superannuation funds, ESG advisory/consultancy firms, ESG research providers, and relevant advocacy groups. Interviews examined challenges and opportunities to the integration of nutrition and obesity prevention considerations within institutional investment decision-making. Interviews were analysed using deductive thematic analysis, informed by a theoretical change model.

RESULTS

Several participants reported that their institution factored nutrition and obesity prevention considerations into their investment decisions; however, attention to nutrition-related issues was limited, generally perceived as 'niche', and not yet institutionalised. Key challenges and opportunities were identified at the employee, investment organisation, investment sector, government and non-government levels. These challenges and opportunities centred around experience and knowledge, quality and availability of ESG data and benchmarks, importance of investor coalitions, and demonstration of financial risks related to nutrition and obesity.

CONCLUSION

There are a range of steps that could be taken to help ensure more systematic and effective consideration of issues related to nutrition and obesity prevention within institutional investment decision-making in Australia, including: (1) improved nutrition-related reporting metrics and benchmarking criteria for food companies; (2) better articulation of the financial risks that unhealthy diets and obesity pose to investors; (3) enhanced investor advocacy on unhealthy diets and obesity through investor coalitions and; (4) detailed guidance for investors on how to address unhealthy diets and obesity. Better engagement between the Australian public health community, institutional investors and government regulators is critical to drive changed investor practice in this area.

Pandemics and technology engagement: New evidence from m-Health intervention during COVID-19 in India

Information provision for social welfare via cheap technological media is now a widely available tool used by policymakers. Often, however, an ample supply of information does not translate into high consumption of information due to various frictions in demand, possibly stemming from the pecuniary and non-pecuniary cost of engagement, along with institutional factors. We test this hypothesis in the Indian context using a unique data set comprising 2 million call records of enrolled users of ARMMAN, a Mumbai-based nongovernmental organization that sends timely informational calls to mobile phones of less-privileged pregnant women. The strict lockdown induced by COVID-19 in India was an unexpected shock on engagement with m-Health technology, in terms of both reductions in market wages and increased time availability at home. Using a difference-in-differences design on unique calls tracked at the user-time level with fine-grained time-stamps on calls, we find that during the lockdown period, the call durations increased by 1.53 percentage points. However, technology engagement behavior exhibited demographic heterogeneity increasing relatively after the lockdown for women who had to borrow the phones vis-à-vis phone owners, for those enrolled in direct outreach programs vis-à-vis self-registered women, and for those who belonged to the low-income group vis-à-vis high-income group. These findings are robust with coarsened exact matching and with a placebo test for a 2017-2018 sample. Our results have policy implications around demand-side frictions for technology engagement in developing economies and maternal health.

Sodium and Health: Old Myths and a Controversy Based on Denial

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The scientific consensus on which global health organizations base public health policies is that high sodium intake increases blood pressure (BP) in a linear fashion contributing to cardiovascular disease (CVD). A moderate reduction in sodium intake to 2000 mg per day helps ensure that BP remains at a healthy level to reduce the burden of CVD.

RECENT FINDINGS

Yet, since as long ago as 1988, and more recently in eight articles published in the European Heart Journal in 2020 and 2021, some researchers have propagated a myth that reducing sodium does not consistently reduce CVD but rather that lower sodium might increase the risk of CVD. These claims are not well-founded and support some food and beverage industry's vested interests in the use of excessive amounts of salt to preserve food, enhance taste, and increase thirst. Nevertheless, some researchers, often with funding from the food industry, continue to publish such claims without addressing the numerous objections. This article analyzes the eight articles as a case study, summarizes misleading claims, their objections, and it offers possible reasons for such claims. Our study calls upon journal editors to ensure that unfounded claims about sodium intake be rigorously challenged by independent reviewers before publication; to avoid editorial writers who have been co-authors with the subject paper's authors; to require statements of conflict of interest; and to ensure that their pages are used only by those who seek to advance knowledge by engaging in the scientific method and its collegial pursuit. The public interest in the prevention and treatment of disease requires no less.

Pilot Study to Reduce Added Salt on a University Canteen through the Use of an Innovative Dosage Equipment

Background: This study aims to demonstrate the practical application of an innovative easy-to-use equipment to dosage cooking salt, and evaluate the effectiveness in reducing 30% of the added salt in meals and the impact on consumer’s satisfaction and food waste. Methods: Two canteens from one public university where randomized in one control arm and one intervention arm. The first step was to evaluate the salt added to food through atomic emission spectrophotometry in both canteens, and the second step was to perform gradual reductions of up to 30% of cooking salt in the intervention canteen using the Salt Control-C (SC-C) equipment. Consumer acceptability was assessed through satisfaction questionnaires and food waste was evaluated by weighing. Results: The intervention canteen achieved to a reduction of more than 30% of added salt in soup (−34.3% per 100 g), fish dish (−41.1% per 100 g) and meat dish (−48.0% per 100 g), except for the vegetarian dish (6.1% per 100 g). There was no decrease in consumer satisfaction, with a significant satisfaction increase of 15.7% (p = 0.044) regarding the flavor of the main dish. Also, no significant differences were found in food waste. Conclusions: SC-C seems to be effective in reducing 30% of added salt levels in canteen meals, and may be a good strategy to control and reach adequate levels of added salt in meals served outside-the-home, promoting benefits to the individual’s health.

Simulation Modeling for the Economic Evaluation of Population-Based Dietary Policies: A Systematic Scoping Review

Simulation modeling can be useful to estimate the long-term health and economic impacts of population-based dietary policies. We conducted a systematic scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guideline to map and critically appraise economic evaluations of population-based dietary policies using simulation models. We searched Medline, Embase, and EconLit for studies published in English after 2005. Modeling studies were mapped based on model type, dietary policy, and nutritional target, and modeled risk factor-outcome pathways were analyzed. We included 56 studies comprising 136 model applications evaluating dietary policies in 21 countries. The policies most often assessed were reformulation (34/136), taxation (27/136), and labeling (20/136); the most common targets were salt/sodium (60/136), sugar-sweetened beverages (31/136), and fruit and vegetables (15/136). Model types included Markov-type (35/56), microsimulation (11/56), and comparative risk assessment (7/56) models. Overall, the key diet-related risk factors and health outcomes were modeled, but only 1 study included overall diet quality as a risk factor. Information about validation was only reported in 19 of 56 studies and few studies (14/56) analyzed the equity impacts of policies. Commonly included cost components were health sector (52/56) and public sector implementation costs (35/56), as opposed to private sector (18/56), lost productivity (11/56), and informal care costs (3/56). Most dietary policies (103/136) were evaluated as cost-saving independent of the applied costing perspective. An analysis of the main limitations reported by authors revealed that model validity, uncertainty of dietary effect estimates, and long-term intervention assumptions necessitate a careful interpretation of results. In conclusion, simulation modeling is widely applied in the economic evaluation of population-based dietary policies but rarely takes dietary complexity and the equity dimensions of policies into account. To increase relevance for policymakers and support diet-related disease prevention, economic effects beyond the health sector should be considered, and transparent conduct and reporting of model validation should be improved.

The Cost-Effectiveness and Cost-Utility of Statin Drug for the Treatment of Patients with Cardiovascular Disease, A Systematic Review

Cardiovascular diseases impose a burden of disease and economic burden on society. With regard to different drugs are used to treat cardiovascular disease; these interventions should be economically evaluated and them that the most cost-effective were selected. The aim of this study was to investigate the studies carried on the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of statin drugs for the treatment of patients with cardiovascular disease between 2004 and 2020. Quality assessment of the articles was examined by Drummond's checklist. Given that the inclusion criteria, 26 articles included in the review. The results of this review showed that many articles related to the economic evaluation of statin drugs adhered international standards for performing economic evaluation studies. All the studies mentioned the source of effectiveness (the second criteria) and alternative options for the comparison (the third criteria). Atorvastatin and rosuvastatin drugs were the main options for the comparison in the studies. Although the results of the studies were different in some aspects, such as the type of modeling, costs items and the study perspective, they reached the same results which the use of statin drugs versus no-drug can decrease cost, cardiovascular events and deaths and increase QALY. The results were nearly different due to study design, time horizon, efficacy, and drug prices.

Urinary Sodium and Potassium, and Risk of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke (INTERSTROKE): A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Although low sodium intake (<2 g/day) and high potassium intake (>3.5 g/day) are proposed as public health interventions to reduce stroke risk, there is uncertainty about the benefit and feasibility of this combined recommendation on prevention of stroke.

METHODS

We obtained random urine samples from 9,275 cases of acute first stroke and 9,726 matched controls from 27 countries and estimated the 24-hour sodium and potassium excretion, a surrogate for intake, using the Tanaka formula. Using multivariable conditional logistic regression, we determined the associations of estimated 24-hour urinary sodium and potassium excretion with stroke and its subtypes.

RESULTS

Compared with an estimated urinary sodium excretion of 2.8-3.5 g/day (reference), higher (>4.26 g/day) (odds ratio [OR] 1.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65-2.00) and lower (<2.8 g/day) sodium excretion (OR 1.39; 95% CI, 1.26-1.53) were significantly associated with increased risk of stroke. The stroke risk associated with the highest quartile of sodium intake (sodium excretion >4.26 g/day) was significantly greater (P < 0.001) for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) (OR 2.38; 95% CI, 1.93-2.92) than for ischemic stroke (OR 1.67; 95% CI, 1.50-1.87). Urinary potassium was inversely and linearly associated with risk of stroke, and stronger for ischemic stroke than ICH (P = 0.026). In an analysis of combined sodium and potassium excretion, the combination of high potassium intake (>1.58 g/day) and moderate sodium intake (2.8-3.5 g/day) was associated with the lowest risk of stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

The association of sodium intake and stroke is J-shaped, with high sodium intake a stronger risk factor for ICH than ischemic stroke. Our data suggest that moderate sodium intake-rather than low sodium intake-combined with high potassium intake may be associated with the lowest risk of stroke and expected to be a more feasible combined dietary target.

Sodium intake, health implications, and the role of population-level strategies

Evidence to date suggests that high sodium intake affects health adversely, yet the role of a population-level strategy to reduce sodium intake is often contested. This review focuses on current available evidence on regional sodium intake levels, health implications of sodium intake, and population-level strategies implemented worldwide. The limitations in evidence, the difficulties in implementing population-wide strategies to reduce sodium intake, and the need for such strategies are critically reviewed. Evidence clearly shows that sodium has an adverse effect on blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and mortality. However, whether reduced sodium intake benefits all individuals or only hypertensive individuals is still unclear. Methodological issues and publication bias in current evidence are other matters of concern in sodium-related research. While it is essential to continue working toward the World Health Organization's target of 30% reduction in sodium intake, due consideration should be given to improving the quality of research, reducing bias in publications, and reviewing evidence more critically.

Impact of the 2003 to 2018 Population Salt Intake Reduction Program in England: A Modeling Study

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The United Kingdom was among the first countries to introduce a salt reduction program in 2003 to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence risk. Despite its initial success, the program has stalled recently and is yet to achieve national and international targets. We used age- and sex-stratified salt intake of 19 to 64 years old participants in the National Diet and Nutrition Surveys 2000 to 2018 and a multistate life table model to assess the effects of the voluntary dietary salt reduction program on premature CVD, quality-adjusted survival, and health care and social care costs in England. The program reduced population-level salt intake from 9.38 grams/day per adult (SE, 0.16) in 2000 to 8.38 grams/day per adult (SE, 0.17) in 2018. Compared with a scenario of persistent 2000 levels, assuming that the population-level salt intake is maintained at 2018 values, by 2050, the program is projected to avoid 83 140 (95% CI, 73 710–84 520) premature ischemic heart disease (IHD) cases and 110 730 (95% CI, 98 390–112 260) premature strokes, generating 542 850 (95% CI, 529 020–556 850) extra quality-adjusted life-years and £1640 million (95% CI, £1570–£1660) health care cost savings for the adult population of England. We also projected the gains of achieving the World Health Organization target of 5 grams/day per adult by 2030, which by 2050 would avert further 87 870 (95% CI, 82 050–88 470) premature IHD cases, 126 010 (95% CI, 118 600–126 460) premature strokes and achieve £1260 million (95% CI, £1180–£1260) extra health care savings compared with maintaining 2018 levels. Strengthening the salt reduction program to achieve further reductions in population salt intake and CVD burden should be a high priority.

The Equity and Effectiveness of Achieving Canada's Voluntary Sodium Reduction Guidance Targets: A Modelling Study Using the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition

Background: High sodium intake is a leading modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. This study estimated full compliance to Canada’s voluntary sodium reduction guidance (SRG) targets on social inequities and population sodium intake. Methods: We conducted a modeling study using n = 19,645, 24 h dietary recalls (Canadians ≥ 2 years) from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey—Nutrition (2015 CCHS-N). Multivariable linear regressions were used to estimate mean sodium intake in measured (in the 2015 CCHS-N) and modelled (achieving SRG targets) scenarios across education, income and food security. The percentage of Canadians with sodium intakes above chronic disease risk reduction (CDRR) thresholds was estimated using the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) method. Results: In children aged 2–8, achieving SRG targets reduced mean sodium intake differences between food secure and insecure households from 271 mg/day (95%CI: 75,468) to 83 mg/day (95%CI: −45,212); a finding consistent across education and income. Mean sodium intake inequities between low and high education households were eliminated for females aged 9–18 (96 mg/day, 95%CI: −149,341) and adults aged 19 and older (males: 148 mg/day, 95%CI: −30,327; female: −45 mg/day, 95%CI: −141,51). Despite these declines (after achieving the SRG targets) the majority of Canadians’ are above the CDRR thresholds. Conclusion: Achieving SRG targets would eliminate social inequities in sodium intake and reduce population sodium intake overall; however, additional interventions are required to reach recommended sodium levels.

Impact of interventions to reduce overnutrition on healthcare costs related to obesity and type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

CONTEXT

In recent decades, obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have both become global epidemics associated with substantial healthcare needs and costs.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this review was to critically assess nutritional interventions for their impact on healthcare costs to community-dwelling individuals regarding T2DM or obesity or both, specifically using CHEERS (Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards) criteria to assess the economic components of the evidence.

DATA SOURCES

Searches were executed in Embase, EconLit, AgEcon, PubMed, and Web of Science databases.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies were included if they had a nutritional perspective, reported an economic evaluation that included healthcare costs, and focused on obesity or T2DM or both. Studies were excluded if they examined clinical nutritional preparations, dietary supplements, industrially modified dietary components, micronutrient deficiencies, or undernutrition; if they did not report the isolated impact of nutrition in complex or lifestyle interventions; or if they were conducted in animals or attempted to transfer findings from animals to humans.

DATA EXTRACTION

A systematic review was performed according to PRISMA guidelines. Using predefined search terms, 21 studies evaluating food habit interventions or taxation of unhealthy foods and beverages were extracted and evaluated using CHEERS criteria.

RESULTS

Overall, these studies showed that nutrition interventions and taxation approaches could lead to cost savings and improved health outcomes when compared with current practice. All of the included studies used external sources and economic modeling or risk estimations with population-attributable risks to calculate economic outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Most evidence supported taxation approaches. The effect of nutritional interventions has not been adequately assessed. Controlled studies to directly measure economic impacts are warranted.

Correlates of Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Level Testing Among a Socially-Disadvantaged Population in Poland

As part of cardiovascular disease prevention, the performance of BMI determination, blood pressure measurement, biochemical tests, as well as a lifestyle-related risk assessment are recommended. The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlates of blood pressure and cholesterol level testing among a socially-disadvantaged population in Poland. This cross-sectional study was performed between 2015 and 2016 among 1710 beneficiaries of government welfare assistance. Face-to-face interviews conducted by trained staff at each participant's place of residence allowed for completion of questionnaires that covered socio-demographic, health and lifestyle-related information. Sixty-five percent of the participants declared a blood pressure and 27% of them cholesterol level testing at least once within the year proceeding the study. A higher chance of having blood pressure testing was observed among the women (OR = 1.5; p = 0.002) and people with high blood pressure (OR = 3.9; p < 0.001). The women (OR = 1.4; p = 0.04) and older people (OR = 1.9; p = 0.02; OR = 2.6; p < 0.001, OR = 2.7; p = 0.002, for the following age groups: 30-39, 40-49, 50-59 years respectively), the respondents who declared health problems such as heart attack (OR = 3.0; p = 0.04), high blood pressure (OR = 2.3; p < 0.001) and type 2 diabetes (OR = 3.3; p = 0.004) and those with a family history of chronic diseases (OR = 1.5; p = 0.03) had a higher chance of cholesterol level checking. Higher healthy lifestyle index, indicating that the study participants have followed almost all of the studied lifestyle-related recommendations, was a significant correlate of cholesterol level testing (OR = 1.7; p = 0.006). Actions that promote lifestyle changes, blood pressure, and cholesterol level testing should take into account the needs of the disadvantaged population and should especially target men, people with existing chronic diseases, and those with unfavorable lifestyle characteristics. With respect to the socially-disadvantaged population, the social assistance institutions and outpatient clinics are the best places to conduct activities promoting a healthy lifestyle. The most commonly applied strategies to promote lifestyle changes can cover risk assessment, increasing awareness, emotional support and encouragement, as well as a referral to specialists.

Consumption of salt rich products: impact of the UK reduced salt campaign

This paper uses a leading UK supermarket's loyalty card database to assess the effectiveness and impact of the 2004 UK reduced salt campaign. We present an econometric analysis of purchase data to assess the effectiveness of the Food Standard Agency's (FSA) 'reduced salt campaign'. We adopt a general approach to determining structural breaks in the time series of purchase data, using unit root tests whereby structural breaks are endogenously determined from the data. We find only limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of the FSA's reduced salt campaign. Our results support existing findings in the literature that have used alternative methodologies to examine the impact of information campaigns on consumer choice of products with high salt content.

Three Public Health Interventions Could Save 94 Million Lives in 25 Years

BACKGROUND

Preventable noncommunicable diseases, mostly cardiovascular diseases, are responsible for 38 million deaths annually. A few well-documented interventions have the potential to prevent many of these deaths, but a large proportion of the population in need does not have access to these interventions. We quantified the global mortality impact of 3 high-impact and feasible interventions: scaling up treatment of high blood pressure to 70%, reducing sodium intake by 30%, and eliminating the intake of artificial trans fatty acids.

METHODS

We used global data on mean blood pressure levels and sodium and trans fat intake by country, age, and sex from a pooled analysis of population health surveys, and regional estimates of current coverage of antihypertensive medications, and cause-specific mortality rates in each country, as well, with projections from 2015 to 2040. We used the most recent meta-analyses of epidemiological studies to derive relative risk reductions for each intervention. We estimated the proportional effect of each intervention on reducing mortality from related causes by using a generalized version of the population-attributable fraction. The effect of antihypertensive medications and lowering sodium intake were modeled through their impact on blood pressure and as immediate increase/reduction to the proposed targets.

RESULTS

The combined effect of the 3 interventions delayed 94.3 million (95% uncertainty interval, 85.7-102.7) deaths during 25 years. Increasing coverage of antihypertensive medications to 70% alone would delay 39.4 million deaths (35.9-43.0), whereas reducing sodium intake by 30% would delay another 40.0 million deaths (35.1-44.6) and eliminating trans fat would delay an additional 14.8 million (14.7-15.0). The estimated impact of trans fat elimination was largest in South Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa had the largest proportion of premature delayed deaths out of all delayed deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Three effective interventions can save almost 100 million lives globally within 25 years. National and international efforts to scale up these interventions should be a focus of cardiovascular disease prevention programs.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of salt reformulation and increasing access to leisure centres in England, with PRIMEtime CE model validation using the AdViSHE tool

BACKGROUND

PRIMEtime CE is a multistate life table model that can directly compare the cost effectiveness of public health interventions affecting diet and physical activity levels, helping to inform decisions about how to spend finite resources. This paper estimates the costs and health outcomes in England of two scenarios: reformulating salt and expanding subsidised access to leisure centres. The results are used to help validate PRIMEtime CE, following the steps outlined in the Assessment of the Validation Status of Health-Economic decision models (AdViSHE) tool.

METHODS

The PRIMEtime CE model estimates the difference in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and difference in NHS and social care costs of modelled interventions compared with doing nothing. The salt reformulation scenario models how salt consumption would change if food producers met the 2017 UK Food Standards Agency salt reformulation targets. The leisure centre scenario models change in physical activity levels if the Birmingham Be Active scheme (where swimming pools and gym access is free to residents during defined periods) was rolled out across England. The AdViSHE tool was developed by health economic modellers and divides model validation into five parts: validation of the conceptual model, input data validation, validation of computerised model, operational validation, and other validation techniques. PRIMEtime CE is discussed in relation to each part.

RESULTS

Salt reformulation was dominant compared with doing nothing, and had a 10-year return on investment of £1.44 (£0.50 to £2.94) for every £1 spent. By contrast, over 10 years the Be Active expansion would cost £727,000 (£514,000 to £1,064,000) per QALY. PRIMEtime CE has good face validity of its conceptual model and has robust input data. Cross-validation produces mixed results and shows the impact of model scope, input parameters, and model structure on cost-per-QALY estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper illustrates how PRIMEtime CE can be used to compare the cost-effectiveness of two different public health measures affecting diet and physical activity levels. The AdViSHE tool helps to validate PRIMEtime CE, identifies some of the key drivers of model estimates, and highlights the challenges of externally validating public health economic models against independent data.

Impacts of Brexit on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the potential impacts of different Brexit trade policy scenarios on the price and intake of fruits and vegetables (F&V) and consequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths in England between 2021 and 2030.

DESIGN

Economic and epidemiological modelling study with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

SETTING

The model combined publicly available data on F&V trade, published estimates of UK-specific price elasticities, national survey data on F&V intake, estimates on the relationship between F&V intake and CVD from published meta-analyses and CVD mortality projections for 2021-2030.

PARTICIPANTS

English adults aged 25 years and older.

INTERVENTIONS

We modelled four potential post-Brexit trade scenarios: (1) free trading agreement with the EU and maintaining half of non-EU free trade partners; (2) free trading agreement with the EU but no trade deal with any non-EU countries; (3) no-deal Brexit; and (4) liberalised trade regime that eliminates all import tariffs.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Cumulative coronary heart disease and stroke deaths attributed to the different Brexit scenarios modelled between 2021 and 2030.

RESULTS

Under all Brexit scenarios modelled, prices of F&V would increase, especially for those highly dependent on imports. This would decrease intake of F&V between 2.5% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.9% to 3.1%) and 11.4% (9.5% to 14.2%) under the different scenarios. Our model suggests that a no-deal Brexit scenario would be the most harmful, generating approximately 12 400 (6690 to 23 390) extra CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, whereas establishing a free trading agreement with the EU would have a lower impact on mortality, contributing approximately 5740 (2860 to 11 910) extra CVD deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Trade policy under all modelled Brexit scenarios could increase price and decrease intake of F&V, generating substantial additional CVD mortality in England. The UK government should consider the population health implications of Brexit trade policy options, including changes to food systems.

The impact of food reformulation on nutrient intakes and health, a systematic review of modelling studies

BACKGROUND

Unhealthy diet is a risk factor for adverse health outcomes. Reformulation of processed foods has the potential to improve population diet, but evidence of its impact is limited. The purpose of this review was to explore the impact of reformulation on nutrient intakes, health outcomes and quality of life; and to evaluate the quality of modelling studies on reformulation interventions.

METHODS

A systematic review of peer-reviewed articles published between January 2000 and December 2017 was performed using MEDLINE, ScienceDirect, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane, and the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination of the University of York. Additional studies were identified through informal searches on Google and specialized websites. Only simulation studies modelling the impact of food reformulation on nutrient intakes and health outcomes were included. Included articles were independently extracted by 2 reviewers using a standardized, pre-piloted data form, including a self-developed tool to assess study quality.

RESULTS

A total of 33 studies met the selected inclusion criteria, with 20, 5 and 3 studies addressing sodium, sugar and fats reformulation respectively, and 5 studies addressing multiple nutrients. Evidence on the positive effects of reformulation on consumption and health was stronger for sodium interventions, less conclusive for sugar and fats. Study features were highly heterogeneous including differences in methods, the type of policy implemented, the extent of the reformulation, and the spectrum of targeted foods and nutrients. Nonetheless, partial between-study comparisons show a consistent relationship between percentages reformulated and reductions in individual consumption. Positive results are also shown for health outcomes and quality of life measures, although comparisons across studies are limited by the heterogeneity in model features and reporting. Study quality was often compromised by short time-horizons, disregard of uncertainty and time dependencies, and lack of model validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Reformulation models highlight relevant improvements in diets and population health. While models are valuable tools to evaluate reformulation interventions, comparisons are limited by non-homogeneous designs and assumptions. The use of validated models and extensive scenario analyses would improve models' credibility, providing useful insights for policy-makers.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

A research protocol was registered within the PROSPERO database (ID number CRD42017057341).

Estimating the health and economic effects of the proposed US Food and Drug Administration voluntary sodium reformulation: Microsimulation cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Sodium consumption is a modifiable risk factor for higher blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed voluntary sodium reduction goals targeting processed and commercially prepared foods. We aimed to quantify the potential health and economic impact of this policy.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used a microsimulation approach of a close-to-reality synthetic population (US IMPACT Food Policy Model) to estimate CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness from 2017 to 2036 of 3 scenarios: (1) optimal, 100% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; (2) modest, 50% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; and (3) pessimistic, 100% compliance with 2-year reformulation targets, but with no further progress. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and high-quality meta-analyses to inform model inputs. Costs included government costs to administer and monitor the policy, industry reformulation costs, and CVD-related healthcare, productivity, and informal care costs. Between 2017 and 2036, the optimal reformulation scenario achieving the FDA sodium reduction targets could prevent approximately 450,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty interval: 240,000 to 740,000), gain approximately 2.1 million discounted QALYs (1.7 million to 2.4 million), and produce discounted cost savings (health savings minus policy costs) of approximately $41 billion ($14 billion to $81 billion). In the modest and pessimistic scenarios, health gains would be 1.1 million and 0.7 million QALYS, with savings of $19 billion and $12 billion, respectively. All the scenarios were estimated with more than 80% probability to be cost-effective (incremental cost/QALY < $100,000) by 2021 and to become cost-saving by 2031. Limitations include evaluating only diseases mediated through BP, while decreasing sodium consumption could have beneficial effects upon other health burdens such as gastric cancer. Further, the effect estimates in the model are based on interventional and prospective observational studies. They are therefore subject to biases and confounding that may have influenced also our model estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing and achieving the FDA sodium reformulation targets could generate substantial health gains and net cost savings.

Predicting Circulatory Diseases from Psychosocial Safety Climate: A Prospective Cohort Study from Australia

Circulatory diseases (CDs) (including myocardial infarction, angina, stroke or hypertension) are among the leading causes of death in the world. In this paper, we explore for the first time the impact of a specific aspect of organizational climate, Psychosocial Safety Climate (PSC), on CDs. We used two waves of interview data from Australia, with an average lag of 5 years (excluding baseline CDs, final n = 1223). Logistic regression was conducted to estimate the prospective associations between PSC at baseline on incident CDs at follow-up. It was found that participants in low PSC environments were 59% more likely to develop new CD than those in high PSC environments. Logistic regression showed that high PSC at baseline predicts lower CD risk at follow-up (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–1.00) and this risk remained unchanged even after additional adjustment for known job design risk factors (effort reward imbalance and job strain). These results suggest that PSC is an independent risk factor for CDs in Australia. Beyond job design this study implicates organizational climate and prevailing management values regarding worker psychological health as the genesis of CDs.

Healthcare Expenditure and Productivity Cost Savings from Reductions in Cardiovascular Disease and Type 2 Diabetes Associated with Increased Intake of Cereal Fibre among Australian Adults: A Cost of Illness Analysis

An ageing population and growing prevalence of chronic diseases including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are putting increased pressure on healthcare expenditure in Australia. A cost of illness analysis was conducted to assess the potential savings in healthcare expenditure and productivity costs associated with lower prevalence of CVD and T2D resulting from increased intake of cereal fibre. Modelling was undertaken for three levels of increased dietary fibre intake using cereal fibre: a 10% increase in total dietary fibre; an increase to the Adequate Intake; and an increase to the Suggested Dietary Target. Total healthcare expenditure and productivity cost savings associated with reduced CVD and T2D were calculated by gender, socioeconomic status, baseline dietary fibre intake, and population uptake. Total combined annual healthcare expenditure and productivity cost savings of AUD$17.8 million-$1.6 billion for CVD and AUD$18.2 million-$1.7 billion for T2D were calculated. Total savings were generally larger among adults of lower socioeconomic status and those with lower dietary fibre intakes. Given the substantial healthcare expenditure and productivity cost savings that could be realised through increases in cereal fibre, there is cause for the development of interventions and policies that encourage an increase in cereal fibre intake in Australia.

Monitoring the changes to the nutrient composition of fast foods following the introduction of menu labelling in New South Wales, Australia: an observational study

Objective

The present study examined the energy (kilojoule) content of Australian fast-food menu items over seven years, before and after introduction of menu board labelling, to determine the impact of the introduction of the legislation.

Design

Analysis of the median energy contents per serving and per 100g of fast-food menu items. Change in energy content of menu items across the years surveyed and differences in energy content of standard and limited-time only menu items were analysed.

Setting

Five of Australia’s largest fast food chains: Hungry Jack’s, KFC, McDonald’s, Oporto and Red Rooster.

Subjects

All standard and limited-time only menu items available at each fast-food chain, collected annually for seven years, 2009–2015.

Results

Although some fast-food chains/menu item categories had significant increases in the energy contents of their menus at some time points during the 7-year period, overall there were no significant or systematic decreases in energy following the introduction of menu labelling (P=0·19 by +17 kJ/100 g, P=0·83 by +8 kJ/serving). Limited-time only items were significantly higher in median energy content per 100 g than standard menu items (+74 kJ/100 g, P=0·002).

Conclusions

While reformulation across the entire Australian fast-food supply has the potential to positively influence population nutrient intake, the introduction of menu labelling legislation in New South Wales, Australia did not lead to reduced energy contents across the five fast-food chains. To encourage widespread reformulation by the fast-food industry and enhance the impact of labelling legislation, the government should work with industry to set targets for reformulation of nutrient content.

Identification of differences in health impact modelling of salt reduction

We examined whether specific input data and assumptions explain outcome differences in otherwise comparable health impact assessment models. Seven population health models estimating the impact of salt reduction on morbidity and mortality in western populations were compared on four sets of key features, their underlying assumptions and input data. Next, assumptions and input data were varied one by one in a default approach (the DYNAMO-HIA model) to examine how it influences the estimated health impact. Major differences in outcome were related to the size and shape of the dose-response relation between salt and blood pressure and blood pressure and disease. Modifying the effect sizes in the salt to health association resulted in the largest change in health impact estimates (33% lower), whereas other changes had less influence. Differences in health impact assessment model structure and input data may affect the health impact estimate. Therefore, clearly defined assumptions and transparent reporting for different models is crucial. However, the estimated impact of salt reduction was substantial in all of the models used, emphasizing the need for public health actions.

Evidence of Dietary Improvement and Preventable Costs of Cardiovascular Disease

We conducted a review to summarize preventable medical costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD) associated with improved diet, as defined by the 2020 Strategic Impact Goal of the American Heart Association. We searched databases of PubMed, Embase, CINAHL and ABI/INFORM to identify population-based studies published from January 1995 to December 2015 on CVD medical costs related to excess intake of salt/sodium or sugar-sweetened beverages, and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables, fish/fish oils/omega-3 fatty acids, or whole grains/fiber/dietary fiber. Based on the American Heart Association's secondary dietary metrics, we also searched the literature on inadequate intake of nuts and excess intake of processed meat and saturated fat. For each component, we evaluated the CVD cost savings if consumption levels were changed. The cost savings were adjusted into 2013 US dollars. Among 330 studies focusing on diet and economic consequences, 16 studies evaluated CVD costs associated with 1 or more dietary components: salt/sodium (n = 13), fruits and vegetables (n = 1), meat (n = 1), and saturated fat (n = 3). In the United States, reducing individual sodium intake to 2,300 mg/day from the current level could potentially save $1,990.9/person per year for hypertension treatment, based on a simulation study. Increasing consumption of fruits and vegetables from <0.5 cup/day to >1.5 cups/day could save $1,568.0/person per year in treatment costs for CVD, based on a cohort study. Potential CVD cost savings associated with diet improvement are substantial. Interventions for reducing sodium intake and increasing fruit and vegetable consumption could be viable means to alleviate the increasing national medical expenditures.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a school-based education program to reduce salt intake in children and their families in China

Objective

The School-based Education Program to Reduce Salt Intake in Children and Their Families study was a cluster randomized control trial among grade five students in 28 primary schools and their families in Changzhi, China. It achieved a significant effect in lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) in all family adults by 2.3 mmHg and in elderlies (aged > = 60 years) by 9.5 mmHg. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of this salt reduction program.

Methods

Costs of the intervention were assessed using an ingredients approach to identify resource use. A trial-based incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated based on the observed effectiveness in lowering SBP. A Markov model was used to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of the intervention, and then based on population data, extrapolated to a scenario where the program is scaled up nationwide. Findings were presented in terms of an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The perspective was that of the health sector.

Results

The intervention cost Int$19.04 per family and yielded an ICER of Int$2.74 (90% CI: 1.17–12.30) per mmHg reduction of SBP in all participants (combining children and adult participants together) compared with control group. If scaled up nationwide for 10 years and assumed deterioration in treatment effect of 50% over this period, it would reach 165 million families and estimated to avert 42,720 acute myocardial infarction deaths and 107,512 stroke deaths in China. This would represent a gain of 635,816 QALYs over 10-year time frame, translating into Int$1,358 per QALY gained.

Conclusion

Based on WHO-CHOICE criteria, our analysis demonstrated that the proposed salt reduction strategy is highly cost-effective, and if scaled up nationwide, the benefits could be substantial.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01821144

Effects of reducing processed culinary ingredients and ultra-processed foods in the Brazilian diet: a cardiovascular modelling study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact of reducing saturated fat, trans-fat, salt and added sugar from processed culinary ingredients and ultra-processed foods in the Brazilian diet on preventing cardiovascular deaths by 2030.

DESIGN

A modelling study.

SETTING

Data were obtained from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey 2008/2009. All food items purchased were categorized into food groups according to the NOVA classification. We estimated the energy and nutrient profile of foods then used the IMPACT Food Policy model to estimate the reduction in deaths from CVD up to 2030 in three scenarios. In Scenario A, we assumed that the intakes of saturated fat, trans-fat, salt and added sugar from ultra-processed foods and processed culinary ingredients were reduced by a quarter. In Scenario B, we assumed a reduction of 50 % of the same nutrients in ultra-processed foods and processed culinary ingredients. In Scenario C, we reduced the same nutrients in ultra-processed foods by 75 % and in processed culinary ingredients by 50 %.

RESULTS

Approximately 390 400 CVD deaths might be expected in 2030 if current mortality patterns persist. Under Scenarios A, B and C, CVD mortality can be reduced by 5·5, 11·0 and 29·0 %, respectively. The main impact is on stroke with a reduction of approximately 6·0, 12·6 and 32·0 %, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial potential exists for reducing the CVD burden through overall improvements of the Brazilian diet. This might require reducing the penetration of ultra-processed foods by means of regulatory policies, as well as improving the access to and promotion of fresh and minimally processed foods.

Sodium Reduction in Processed Foods in Brazil: Analysis of Food Categories and Voluntary Targets from 2011 to 2017

Non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, are responsible for over 70% of deaths in Brazil. Currently, over 25% of Brazilian adults are diagnosed as hypertensive; overall, current dietary sodium intake in Brazil (4700 mg/person) is over twice the international recommendations, and 70-90% of adolescents and adults consume excessive sodium. National sodium reduction strategies consider the main dietary sources of sodium to be added salt to foods, foods consumed outside of the household, and sodium in processed foods. The national voluntary strategy for sodium reduction in priority food categories has been continuously monitored over a 6-year period (2011-2017) and there was a significant 8-34% reduction in the average sodium content of over half food categories. Different food categories have undergone differing reductions in sodium over time, aiding gradual biannual targets to allow industries to develop new technologies and consumers to adapt to foods with less salt. By 2017, most products of all food categories had met the regional targets proposed by the Pan American Health Organization, showing that voluntary sodium reduction strategies can potentially contribute to food reformulation. Nevertheless, regulatory approaches may still be necessary in the future in order to reach all food producers and to allow stronger enforcement to meet more stringent regional targets.