Change in Terrestrial Human Footprint Drives Continued Loss of Intact Ecosystems

First rangewide density estimate of the endemic and isolated Luangwa giraffe in Zambia

The Luangwa giraffe (Giraffa tippelskirchi thornicrofti), a subspecies of the Masai giraffe endemic to the Luangwa Valley of northeastern Zambia, inhabits an increasingly human-modified landscape. Accurate and current population estimates are critical to evaluating their status and identifying effective conservation strategies. However, sparse monitoring since the early 1900s has limited inferences about population size, structure, and range. To address this, we conducted the most spatially extensive and systematic survey to date of Luangwa giraffe across its distribution, extending survey effort 120 km south of their officially recognized extent. Using spatial capture recapture modeling, we estimated 651-890 giraffe and an overall density of 0.04-0.05 giraffe/km2. Density decreased to nought beyond 7.5 km from permanent rivers, consistent with preferred forage concentrated in riparian areas. Increasing giraffe density estimates up to a threshold of the Human Footprint Index suggested that limited human presence may have negligible consequences on movement and resource selection. This was likely due to suitable habitat and minimal conflict despite human presence. However, without mitigating land-use planning, rapid land conversion threatens human-giraffe coexistence. An even sex ratio and small proportion of subadults implied a stable population, but sex-biased and temporal dynamics in space use, impacts of predation, and stochastic risks necessitate continued monitoring. This study highlights the value of systematic large-scale monitoring and opportunities for data integration across long-term monitoring programs to evaluate factors driving Luangwa giraffe dynamics and to inform science-based conservation of this unique and isolated population.

A significant increase in forest regeneration failure following logging is driven by climatic and management factors

Regeneration following disturbance is a key natural process in forests worldwide and understanding the factors influencing it is critical to forest management. Here, using satellite data, historical logging data (1980-2019), and on-ground surveys, we quantified the spatial and temporal extent of regeneration failure following logging in the Eucalyptus forests of south-eastern Australia. We asked: What is the spatial extent and distribution of regeneration failure? Has the prevalence of regeneration failure changed over time? And, what climatic, topographic and other factors influence regeneration failure? We found that 19.2 % of areas logged between 1980 and 2019 in our study area (8030 ha of 41,819 ha cut) were characterized by regeneration failure. There was strong evidence of a significant increase in the extent of failed regeneration over the 40 years of our study, increasing from an average of <2 ha per cutblock in 1980 (∼7.5%) to an average of >9 ha per cutblock in 2019 (∼85%). The rate of change in regeneration failure also has increased. Regeneration failure was greatest on cutblocks with particular attributes including those: (1) with a high edge-area ratio (corresponding to long narrow logged areas), (2) on steep slopes, (3) at low elevation, and (4) dominated by Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forest compared to other species (e.g. Alpine Ash [Eucalyptus delegatensis]). Our results suggest that attempts to regenerate forest cover in some areas may become challenging after logging, including cutblocks on steep slopes that experience comparatively drier conditions.

Extended sub-chronic exposure to heavy metal mixture induced multidrug resistance against chemotherapy agents in ovarian cancer cells

Recent scientific findings suggest that persistent, minimal quantity exposure to heavy metals combinations can instigate negative reactions across various cell types, tissues, and organs. However, the interplay between heavy metals present in blood and cancerous cells remains largely unclear. We aimed to examine the capability of a Pb, Cd, and Co at very low concentrations blend to trigger multidrug resistance against chemotherapeutic remedies such as cisplatin, 5-fluorouracil, and doxorubicin in the NIH-Ovcar3 human ovarian cancer cell line. Additionally, we sought to dissect the molecular mechanisms bolstering this resistance. Our results illustrate that consistent administration of the heavy metal mixture at extraordinarily low concentrations fosters pronounced chemotherapy resistance in Ovcar3 cells via cross resistance. This resistance endured and was propagated through ensuing cell generations. We observed that ATP-binding cassette (ABC) membrane transporters, specifically P-gp/ABCB1, BRCP/ABCG2, and ABCC1-type cellular detoxification functions, were markedly overexpressed, playing a crucial role in multidrug resistance. This finding supports the molecular evidence of the acquired multidrug resistance phenotype and provides preliminary insights into the potential resistance mechanism. We also found decreased mortality rates in the resistant ovarian cancer cells, with the mitochondrial apoptosis pathway activating at a reduced rate post-chemotherapy relative to the non-resistant control cells. Furthermore, multidrug-resistant cells exhibited increased motility and enhanced wound-healing abilities, hinting at a higher metastatic potential. These findings suggest that analysing P-gp, BRCP, and ABCC1 multidrug resistance gene expression and/or protein levels within biopsy samples from ovarian cancer patients at risk of heavy metal exposure could prove advantageous in determining chemotherapy dosage and prolonging patient lifespan.

Mitigation of human activity impacts on habitat quality in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration

Habitat is one of the important contents in regional ecological security research. However, whether the impact of human activities on habitat quality has been effectively controlled remains to be further explored. Using urban-rural gradients, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the MGWR model, we assessed how human activities have affected habitat quality in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration. Our results show that habitat quality has consistently declined over the past two decades, exhibiting a "low in the middle, high around the edges" spatial distribution pattern. Over 60% of the area is at medium or lower habitat quality levels. Simultaneously, the human activity intensity has clearly increased, affecting approximately 114,354.68 km2 of area. Although habitat quality is slowly declining and the negative effects of human activities are being gradually controlled, the areas with both low human activity and low habitat quality have grown by 42.83%, suggesting that the management of human activities is expected to face increasing challenges in the future.

Global extent and change in human modification of terrestrial ecosystems from 1990 to 2022

Habitat loss and degradation associated with industrial development is the primary threat and dominant driver of biodiversity loss globally. Spatially-explicit datasets that estimate human pressures are essential to understand the extent and rate of anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems and are critical to inform conservation commitments and efforts under the Global Biodiversity Framework. We leveraged the human modification framework to generate comprehensive, consistent, detailed, robust, temporal, and contemporary datasets to map cumulative and individual threats associated with industrial human activities to terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems from 1990 to 2022. In ~2022, 43% of terrestrial lands had very low levels of modification, while 27%, 20%, and 10% had low, moderate, and high modification, respectively. Nearly 2/3 of biomes and 1/2 of ecoregions currently are moderately-modified, and 24% of terrestrial ecosystems (31 M km2) experienced increased modification from 1990 to 2020. About 29% of countries and 31% of ecoregions might also be particularly vulnerable to biodiversity loss given their above-average increased modification and less than 30% protection.

Effects of expansion of protected areas and habitat transformation on spatiotemporal variation in human-wildlife conflict

Land-use changes and the expansion of protected areas (PAs) have fostered increased interactions between humans and wildlife, resulting in an escalation of human-wildlife conflict (HWC) globally. However, HWC spatiotemporal pattern variation and its associations with PAs and land-use change remain poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we mapped and analyzed HWCs from 1990 to 2022 across China. We comprehensively mapped the spatiotemporal dynamics of HWCs in ArcGIS with data sets stratified by county, year, and species; assessed the impact of PAs through propensity score matching; and analyzed the effects of habitat transformation with linear mixed models. As PA increased from 0 to 20,000 km2, the likelihood of HWCs initially increased (50%) before declining (20%). Conversely, as the distance from a PA grew, the likelihood of HWC gradually decreased (0 beyond 65 km). There was a temporal lag between the establishment of a PA and the occurrence of HWC. Habitat loss catalyzed HWCs, whereas decreased levels of habitat fragmentation sometimes initially caused a temporary increase in HWCs. In general, the distribution of PAs greatly affected HWC occurrence, and habitat loss and fragmentation were critical drivers of HWCs, both of which exhibited time-lagged effects. HWC has become more challenging to address as conservation initiatives have led to significant recovery of the habitats and populations of wild animals. Further measures to address the HWCs are needed to ensure the preservation of animal welfare while fostering the mutually beneficial coexistence of humans and animal species. Finally, our study provides an important starting point for informing future HWC research and conservation planning on a global scale.

Effect of uneven tolerance to human disturbance on dominance interactions of top predators

Anthropogenic activities may alter felid assemblage structure, facilitating the persistence of tolerant species (commonly mesopredators), excluding ecologically demanding ones (top predators) and, consequently, changing coexistence rules. We aimed to determine how human activities influence intraguild relationships among top predators and their cascading effects on mesopredators, which remain poorly understood despite evidence of top carnivore decline. We used structural equation modeling at a continental scale to investigate how habitat quality and quantity, livestock density, and other human pressures modified the intraguild relations of the 3 species that are at the top of the food chain in the Neotropics: jaguars (Panthera onca), pumas (Puma concolor), and ocelots (Leopardus pardalis). We included presence-absence data derived from systematic studies compiled in Neocarnivores data set for these felid species at 0.0833° resolution. Human disturbance reduced the probability of jaguar occurrence by -0.35 standard deviations. Unexpectedly, the presence of sheep (Ovis aries) or goats (Capra aegagrus hircus) and jaguars was positively related to the presence of pumas, whereas puma presence was negatively related to the presence of ocelots. Extent of forest cover had more of an effect on jaguar (β = 0.23) and ocelot (β = 0.12) occurrences than the extent of protected area, which did not have a significant effect. The lack of effect of human activities on puma presence and the positive effect of small livestock supports the notion that pumas are more adaptable to habitat disturbance than jaguars. Our findings suggest that human disturbance has the potential to reverse the hierarchical competition dominance among large felids, leading to an unbalanced community structure. This shift disadvantages jaguars and elevates the position of pumas in the assemblage hierarchy, resulting in the exclusion of ocelots, despite their relatively lower susceptibility to anthropogenic disturbance. Our results suggest that conservation efforts should extend beyond protected areas to encompass the surrounding landscape, where complexities and potential conflicts are more pronounced.

Spatial heterogeneity and interaction mechanism of human activity intensity and land-use carbon emissions along the urban-rural gradient: A case study of the Yellow River Delta

Advancing our understanding of the spatial heterogeneity and interaction mechanism between human activity intensity (HAI) and land-use carbon emissions (LCE) along the urban-rural gradient holds significant importance for achieving integrated carbon reduction in urban-rural development. Therefore, this study focused on the Yellow River Delta as the study area and introduced the gradient analysis method to establish gradient rings and gradient bands respectively, with the city center as the origin; meanwhile, and applied the improved human footprint modelling and LCE accounting methods, Lorenz curve & Gini coefficient, and cross-wavelet analysis to quantify the gradient differences of HAI and LCE and their equilibrium, directionality and spatial multi-scale correlations. The findings showed that: 1) In the urban-rural gradient rings and gradient bands, the mean levels of HAI and LCE exhibited certain characteristics of the ring structure, with high-value and low-value areas alternating. 2) In the urban-rural gradient, the equilibrium between HAI and LCE gradually decreased; moreover, the positive effect between HAI and LCE was significant, and the characteristic scales of the 4 gradient bands were identified as the most suitable spatial scales for explaining their association. Furthermore, this study provides a new perspective on carbon reduction strategies by proposing a universal urban-rural gradient partitioning scheme.

Urbanization Pressures on Climate Adaptation Capacity of Forest Habitats

Urbanization extensively shapes the wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs). However, the effects of urbanization on forest habitats in WUIs as thermal refuges for biodiversity remain elusive. Here, we show that urbanization-induced increases in human footprints cause canopy degradation of forest habitats in WUIs, including declines in forest coverage (-12.61% ± 0.05%), leaf area index (-0.45 ± 0.01 m2 m-2), and canopy height (-3.74 ± 0.02 m). Canopy degradation weakens forest-based climate change adaptation, inferred by reduced forest habitat connectivity (-9.45% ± 0.08%) and elevated daily mean surface temperature (0.41°C ± 0.01°C) in WUIs, leading to a rise in frequency (0.22 ± 0.01 days) and intensity (1.05°C ± 0.02°C) of annual mean thermal extremes compared to that in nearby wildlands. A 10.01% ± 0.07% lower mean species richness in WUIs than nearby wildlands demonstrates local biodiversity loss in WUIs driven by intense human footprints, declined habitat connectivity, and increased thermal stress. We highlight the need for urban planning to fully integrate solutions for climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation.

Sustainable livestock management under anthropogenic pressure: Bridging traditional herding and contemporary conservation in Eurasia's oldest protected area

In some regions of the world, long traditions of herding practices have coevolved with the natural ecosystems, sustaining livelihoods and biodiversity. However, in emerging economies, the populations that have long relied on livestock as their main income are now driving a dramatic increase in livestock numbers on the landscape. This study investigates the impacts of livestock (cattle and horses) and human activities on wild ungulates, Siberian roe deer (Capreolus pygargus), wapiti (Cervus canadensis), and wild boar (Sus scrofa), in Bogd Khan Mountain, Mongolia. Protected since the 12th century, this mountain is experiencing escalating anthropogenic pressures. Using camera traps in a random habitat stratified design, we analyzed temporal and spatial overlap between wild ungulates, livestock, and human activity. Livestock and human activities showed varying degrees of temporal overlap with wild ungulates, indicating potential competition and behavioral adaptations. Higher cattle relative abundance was associated with reduced wapiti abundance, suggesting potential competition for resources, whereas higher horse abundance corresponded to increased abundance of both wapiti and roe deer. Human abundance negatively impacted Siberian roe deer, likely due to disturbance, whereas wild boar exhibited resilience to these pressures. Our findings underscore the need for sustainable livestock management to mitigate competition and maintain ecological integrity. Integrating traditional herding practices with modern conservation strategies can enhance wildlife and livelihood resilience. This research highlights the utility of evidence-based approaches to balance biodiversity conservation and resource use in similar socio-ecological systems globally, where traditional livelihoods are increasingly at risk from modern disturbances.

Spatiotemporal analysis of habitat quality and driving factors in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin

Habitat quality (HQ) is critical for the sustainable development of regional ecosystems and provides a theoretical basis for environmental protection and land use planning. The middle reaches of the Yellow River, characterized by abundant water resources, severe soil erosion, and high biodiversity conservation value, represent a vital ecological barrier for China's environmental security. This study analyzes land use/land cover changes (LUCC) from 1992 to 2022 using a land use transfer matrix, evaluates HQ with the InVEST model, and identifies the primary driving factors and their complex interactions through the GeoDetector model. Spatial autocorrelation analysis (SAA), including Global Moran's I (GMI), Local Moran's I (LMI), and Getis-Ord Gi*, further uncovers spatial clustering and distribution patterns of HQ, revealing underlying ecological mechanisms. The results indicate that LUCC in the middle reaches of the Yellow River has undergone significant transformations: urbanization and agricultural expansion have exerted negative impacts on HQ, while ecological restoration policies have substantially improved HQ in certain areas. GeoDetector analysis highlights economic development and LUCC as the dominant drivers of HQ, with significant synergistic interactions among factors. SAA confirms the clustering characteristics of HQ, providing robust support for the formulation of more targeted and effective environmental protection strategies. This study recommends strict implementation of conservation boundaries, curbing urban land expansion, optimizing ecological compensation mechanisms, and promoting ecological restoration policies, such as converting farmland to forests or grasslands, to enhance HQ in the region.

Policy decisions matter: Cessation of logging benefits 34 threatened species in Victoria, Australia

In January 2024, the Australian state of Victoria committed to ending native forest logging six years ahead of schedule, a decision that has been advocated for by scientists and conservationists for decades. However, the direct benefits for threatened species from this policy change has not been quantified. This study assesses the spatial overlap between areas approved for logging and the habitats of nationally listed threatened species, to estimate the potential impacts of continued logging and the likely benefits of its cessation. We found that 99% of the areas approved for logging overlapped with the habitats of nationally threatened species. On average, each logging cutblock contained habitat for eight listed species. Areas approved for logging had considerable overlap with the habitat of several threatened species, particularly the Baw Baw frog (Philoria frosti, Critically Endangered, 6.2% of habitat approved for logging), Leadbeater's possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri, Critically Endangered, 6.1%), barred galaxias (Galaxias fuscus, Endangered, 5.6%), Tall astelia (Astelia australiana, Vulnerable, 5.4%), and Colquhoun grevillea (Grevillea celata, Vulnerable, 5%). Notably, these five species are found only in Victoria, thus these values represent the proportion of their entire mapped habitat slated for logging over a short time period. Our findings underscore the need for urgent, nationwide forest protection policies, alongside restoration efforts, to support species recovery and meet global climate and biodiversity commitments.

Human pressures threaten diet-specialized mammal communities

Environmental change is increasing worldwide and many animal species face anthropogenic threats, especially diet specialists. Yet the degree to which specialist species are currently impacted by environmental change remains poorly understood. We examine how anthropogenic pressures impact dietary specialist species. We calculated indices of diet specialization for mammal species, based on the Gini inequality coefficient, and combined these indices with human pressure data. We then used spatially explicit Mantel tests to examine global patterns in mammal diet specialization. We used a generalized linear mixed model to investigate correlations between the percentage of diet specialist species in mammal communities in an area and its total species richness, human pressure and protection status (mediated through an interaction with the continent). Findings revealed that areas with many diet specialists in mammal communities are also impacted by high human pressure. Additionally, we found that the global protected area system adequately covers habitat for many mammal diet specialists, but has lower effectiveness in South America, Oceania, North America and Europe compared with Africa and Asia. Finally, we identified potential reservoirs for specialist species-places containing many highly diet specialist species and that are subject to less human pressure-which may be important for conservation efforts.

Habitat quality outweighs the human footprint in driving spatial patterns of Cetartiodactyla in the Kunlun-Pamir Plateau

The Human Footprint (HFP) and Habitat Quality (HQ) are critical factors influencing the species' distribution, yet their relation to biodiversity, particularly in mountainous regions, still remains inadequately understood. This study aims to identify the primary factor that affects the biodiversity by comparing the impact of the HFP and HQ on the species' richness of Cetartiodactyla in the Kunlun-Pamir Plateau and four protected areas: The Pamir Plateau Wetland Nature Reserve, Taxkorgan Wildlife Nature Reserve, Middle Kunlun Nature Reserve and Arjinshan Nature Reserve through multi-source satellite remote sensing product data. By integrating satellite data with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST)HQ model and utilizing residual and linear regression analysis, we found that: (1) The Wildness Area (WA) predominantly underwent a transition to a Highly Modified Area (HMA) and Intact Area (IA), with a notable 12.02% rise in stable regions, while 58.51% rather experienced a negligible decrease. (2) From 1985 to 2020, the Kunlun-Pamir Plateau has seen increases in the forestland, water, cropland and shrubland, alongside declines in bare land and grassland, denoting considerable land cover changes. (3) The HQ degradation was significant, with 79.81% of the area showing degradation compared to a 10.65% improvement, varying across the nature reserves. (4) The species richness of Cetartiodactyla was better explained by HQ than by HFP on the Kunlun-Pamir Plateau (52.99% vs. 47.01%), as well as in the Arjinshan Nature Reserve (81.57%) and Middle Kunlun Nature Reserve (56.41%). In contrast, HFP was more explanatory in the Pamir Plateau Wetland Nature Reserve (88.89%) and the Taxkorgan Wildlife Nature Reserve (54.55%). Prioritizing the restoration of degraded habitats areas of the Kunlun Pamir Plateau could enhance Cetartiodactyla species richness. These findings provide valuable insights for the biodiversity management and conservation strategies in the mountainous regions.

The quantifying, mapping, and risk analysis of human-related stressors in the high seas

Objectives: Marine biodiversity and ecosystem services in the high seas are threatened by numerous stress factors caused by human activities, including global shipping, high-sea fishing, marine plastic pollution, and anthropogenic climate change. Socioeconomic factors are one of the criteria for the establishment of area-based management tools in the high seas for marine biodiversity conservation beyond national jurisdiction. The aim of the work is to propose a spatiotemporal approach to identify risks from marine human activities and recommendations for high seas governance. Methods: Data related to human activities from 2014 to 2022 were used to calculate the distribution and changes of human-related stressors, and the risk to marine biodiversity in the high seas caused by human activities. Results: The North Atlantic, Philippine Sea, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and East Central Atlantic show high and increasing intensities of human-related stressors, and are therefore particularly at need for the protection and conservation of marine biodiversity. Risks from human activities vary within the marine areas that are prioritized for biodiversity protection. The study recommends that the designation of high seas protected areas should take into account the types of risks to which the different marine areas are exposed, and that the high seas protected areas should be established gradually. At the same time, appropriate management measures should be formulated according to the intensity of human activities in the different marine areas. Conclusions: Quantifying and classifying the risk from human-related stressors could help identify solution for the protection and conservation and facilitate the marine spatial planning, establishment area based management tools, including marine protected areas in the high seas.

Assessing the impact of human activities on ecosystem asset dynamics in the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2020

The intensification of human activities in the Yellow River Basin has significantly altered its ecosystems, challenging the sustainability of the region's ecosystem assets. This study constructs an ecosystem asset index for the period from 2001 to 2020, integrating it with human footprint maps to analyze the temporal and spatial dynamics of ecosystem assets and human activities within the basin, as well as their interrelationships. Our findings reveal significant improvement of ecosystem assets, mainly attributed to the conversion of farmland back into natural habitats, resulting in a 15,994 km2 increase in ecological land use. Notably, 45.88% of the basin has experienced concurrent growth in both human activities and ecosystem assets, with ecosystem assets expanding at a faster rate (22.61%) than human activities (17.25%). Areas with high-quality ecosystem assets are expanding, in contrast to areas with intense human activities, which are facing increased fragmentation. Despite a global escalation in threats from human activities to ecosystem assets, the local threat level within the Yellow River Basin has slightly diminished, indicating a trend towards stabilization. Results highlight the critical importance of integrating spatial and quality considerations into restoration efforts to enhance the overall condition of ecosystem assets, especially under increasing human pressures. Our work assesses the impact of human activities on the dynamics of ecosystem assets in the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2020, offering valuable insights for quality development in the region, may provide a scientific basis for general watershed ecological protection and sustainable management in a region heavily influenced by human activity but on a path to recovery.

Comparison of hunting site strategies of the common buzzard Buteo buteo in open landscapes and along expressways

Background

The expansion of human activities in their many forms increases the frequency, diversity, and scale of human-wildlife interactions. One such negative form is the expansion of road infrastructure, causing road kill and traffic-related noise as well as habitat loss and fragmentation. Even so, habitats around road infrastructure are attractive foraging areas that attract certain bird species. We assessed the impact of road infrastructure on the foraging strategies of the common buzzard Buteo buteo.

Methods

Birds were observed during two winter seasons in two land-use types, along an expressway and an open agricultural landscape. Individual birds were tracked for a 10-min sequence as a separate sample was analysed. The material, covering 1,220 min along the expressway, and 1,100 min in the agricultural landscape, was collected.

Results

Time spent by buzzards on medium-height sites was higher along the expressway than in farmland. Buzzards changed their hunting sites following the mean wind speed. Also, they more often changed their sites along the expressway than in farmland. The land-use types, snow cover, and the mean wind speed mediated the number of attacks on prey. These results illustrate the high plasticity of the buzzards' behaviour, which can adapt their hunting strategies to both foraging locations (expressway and farmland) and weather conditions. Roadsides along expressways are attractive foraging areas for this diurnal raptor, so reducing the risk of vehicle collisions with this and other birds of prey may require targeted planning efforts.

Advancing EDGE Zones to identify spatial conservation priorities of tetrapod evolutionary history

The biodiversity crisis is pruning the Tree of Life in a way that threatens billions of years of evolutionary history and there is a need to understand where the greatest losses are predicted to occur. We therefore present threatened evolutionary history mapped for all tetrapod groups and describe patterns of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) species. Using a complementarity procedure with uncertainty incorporated for 33,628 species, we identify 25 priority tetrapod EDGE Zones, which are insufficiently protected and disproportionately exposed to high human pressure. Tetrapod EDGE Zones are spread over five continents, 33 countries, and 117 ecoregions. Together, they occupy 0.723% of the world's surface but harbour one-third of the world's threatened evolutionary history and EDGE tetrapod species, half of which is endemic. These EDGE Zones highlight areas of immediate concern for researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and communicators looking to safeguard the tetrapod Tree of Life.

Spatial variability in Arctic-boreal fire regimes influenced by environmental and human factors

Wildfire activity in Arctic and boreal regions is rapidly increasing, with severe consequences for climate and human health. Regional long-term variations in fire frequency and intensity characterize fire regimes. The spatial variability in Arctic-boreal fire regimes and their environmental and anthropogenic drivers, however, remain poorly understood. Here we present a fire tracking system to map the sub-daily evolution of all circumpolar Arctic-boreal fires between 2012 and 2023 using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections and the resulting dataset of the ignition time, location, size, duration, spread and intensity of individual fires. We use this dataset to classify the Arctic-boreal biomes into seven distinct 'pyroregions' with unique climatic and geographic environments. We find that these pyroregions exhibit varying responses to environmental drivers, with boreal North America, eastern Siberia and northern tundra regions showing the highest sensitivity to climate and lightning density. In addition, anthropogenic factors play an important role in influencing fire number and size, interacting with other factors. Understanding the spatial variability of fire regimes and its interconnected drivers in the Arctic-boreal domain is important for improving future predictions of fire activity and identifying areas at risk for extreme events.

Exploring the performance of protected areas in alleviating future human pressure

Protected areas (PAs) are effective in mitigating human pressures, yet their future pressure alleviating effects remain unclear. In this study, we employed the ConvLSTM model to forecast the future human footprint and analyzed human pressure trends using Theil-Sen median and Mann-Kendall tests. We further evaluated the mitigating effects of PAs within their buffer zones (1-10 km) and the contributions of different IUCN categories of PAs to mitigating human pressure using linear regression models. The results indicate that by 2035, the average human pressure value is expected to increase by 11%, with trends exhibiting a polarized pattern. Furthermore, PAs also effectively mitigate human pressure within their 1 km buffer zones. Different categories of PAs vary in their effectiveness in mitigating human pressure, and stricter conservation areas are not always the most effective. This study can offer insights for evaluating the effectiveness of PAs in reducing human pressure and advocate for their targeted management in urban areas.

Global expansion of human-wildlife overlap in the 21st century

Understanding the extent to which people and wildlife overlap in space and time is critical for the conservation of biodiversity and ecological services. Yet, how global change will reshape the future of human-wildlife overlap has not been assessed. We show that the potential spatial overlap of global human populations and 22,374 terrestrial vertebrate species will increase across ~56.6% and decrease across only ~11.8% of the Earth's terrestrial surface by 2070. Increases are driven primarily by intensification of human population densities, not change in wildlife distributions caused by climate change. The strong spatial heterogeneity of future human-wildlife overlap found in our study makes it clear that local context is imperative to consider, and more targeted area-based land-use planning should be integrated into systematic conservation planning.

Global mismatches between threat mapping research effort and the potential of threat abatement actions to reduce extinction risk

Threat mapping is a necessary tool for identifying and abating direct threats to species in the ongoing extinction crisis. There are known gaps in the threat mapping literature for particular threats and geographic locations, and it remains unclear if the distribution of research effort is appropriately targeted relative to conservation need. We aimed to determine the drivers of threat mapping research effort and to quantify gaps that, if filled, could inform actions with the highest potential to reduce species' extinction risk. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model to analyze research effort as a function of threat abatement potential (quantified as the potential reduction in species extinction risk from abating threats), species richness, land area, and human pressure. The model showed that threat mapping research effort increased by 1.1 to 1.2 times per standardized unit change in threat abatement potential. However, species richness and land area were stronger predictors of research effort overall. The greatest areas of mismatch between research effort and threat abatement potential, receiving disproportionately low research effort, were related to the threats to species of agriculture, aquaculture, and biological resource use across the tropical regions of the Americas, Asia, and Madagascar. Conversely, the threat of linear infrastructure (e.g., roads and rails) across regions, the threat of biological resource use (e.g., hunting or collection) in sub-Saharan Africa, and overall threats in North America and Europe all received disproportionately high research effort. We discuss the range of methodological and sociopolitical factors that may be behind the overall trends and specific areas of mismatch we found. We urge a stronger emphasis on targeting research effort toward those threats and geographic locations where threat abatement activities could make the greatest contribution to reducing global species extinction risk.

Global patterns of human-wildlife spatial associations and implications for differentiating conservation strategies

Understanding the global patterns of human and wildlife spatial associations is essential for pragmatic conservation implementation, yet analytical foundations and indicator-based assessments that would further this understanding are lacking. We integrated the global distributions of 30,664 terrestrial vertebrates and human pressures to map human-nature index (HNI) categories that indicate the extent and intensity of human-wildlife interactions. Along the 2 dimensions of biodiversity and human activity, the HNI allowed placement of terrestrial areas worldwide in one of 4 HNI categories: anthropic (human-dominated areas), wildlife-dominated (little human influence and rich in wildlife), co-occurring (substantial presence of humans and wildlife), and harsh-environment (limited presence of humans and wildlife) areas. The HNI varied considerably among taxonomic groups, and the leading driver of HNI was global climate patterns. Co-occurring regions were the most prevalent (35.9%), and wildlife-dominated and anthropic regions encompassed 26.45% and 6.50% of land area, respectively. Our results highlight the necessity for customizing conservation strategies to regions based on human-wildlife spatial associations and the distribution of existing protected area networks. Human activity and biodiversity should be integrated for complementary strategies to support conservation toward ambitious and pragmatic 30×30 goals.

A systematic analysis and review of soil organic carbon stocks in urban greenspaces

Urban greenspaces typically refer to urban wetland, urban forest and urban turfgrass. They play a critical role in carbon sequestration by absorbing carbon from the atmosphere; however, their capacity to retain and store carbon in the form of soil organic carbon (SOC) varies significantly. This study provides a systematic analysis and review on the capacity of different urban greenspace types in retaining and storing SOC in 30 cm soil depth on a global scale. Data came from 78 publications on the subject of SOC stocks, covering different countries and climate zones. Overall, urban greenspace types exerted significant influences on the spatial pattern of SOC stocks, with the highest value of 18.86 ± 11.57 kg m-2 (mean ± standard deviation) in urban wetland, followed by urban forest (6.50 ± 3.65 kg m-2), while the lowest mean value of 4.24 ± 3.28 kg m-2 was recorded in urban turfgrass soil. Soil organic carbon stocks in each urban greenspace type were significantly affected by climate zones, management/environmental settings, and selected soil properties (i.e. soil bulk density, pH and clay content). Furthermore, our analysis showed a significantly negative correlation between SOC stocks and human footprint in urban wetland, but a significantly positive relationship in urban forest and urban turfgrass. A positive correlation between SOC stocks and human footprint indicates that increased human activity and development can enhance SOC stocks through effective management and green infrastructure. Conversely, a negative correlation suggests that improper management of human activities can degrade SOC stocks. This highlights the need for sustainable practices to maintain or enhance SOC accumulation in urban greenspaces.

The effectiveness of natural reserves from the perspective of habitat quality in the southern section of the Hengduan Mountains, Southwestern China

Natural reserves (NRs) play key roles in habitat integrity conservation and biodiversity loss mitigation, and the assessment of the conservation effectiveness of NRs is needed to better manage them. Habitat quality (HQ) comprehensively reflects habitat integrity and biodiversity, but the conservation effectiveness of NRs from the perspective of HQ has rarely been determined at high spatial resolution. Taking the southern section of the Hengduan Mountains (SSHM) in Southwest China as an example, combining an InVEST-HQ model and spatiotemporal change detection methods, the effectiveness of NRs from the perspective of HQ at 30-m spatial resolution was assessed in this study. The effectiveness disparities of NRs across different properties (i.e., management level, conservation target, size, and establishment age) was analyzed and the human pressures on NRs was investigated. The results showed that the HQ of the NRs is good in the SSHM, with the area ratio of the Higher and Highest HQ ≥ 93%. Most of the NR area (94.11%) was effective at improving or maintaining a good HQ. With regard to NR properties, county NRs, NRs designated to conserving wild animals, middle NRs, and younger NRs were more effective, corresponding to management level, conservation target, size, and establishment age, respectively. The human footprint for an effective area is significantly lower than that for an ineffective area, consistent with higher HQ in the effective area and lower HQ in the ineffective area. These findings support the management and zoning of NRs in the SSHM to ensure their effectiveness.

Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types

Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Scaling up area-based conservation to implement the Global Biodiversity Framework's 30x30 target: The role of Nature's Strongholds

The Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), signed in 2022 by Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, recognized the importance of area-based conservation, and its goals and targets specify the characteristics of protected and conserved areas (PCAs) that disproportionately contribute to biodiversity conservation. To achieve the GBF's target of conserving a global area of 30% by 2030, this Essay argues for recognizing these characteristics and scaling them up through the conservation of areas that are: extensive (typically larger than 5,000 km2); have interconnected PCAs (either physically or as part of a jurisdictional network, and frequently embedded in larger conservation landscapes); have high ecological integrity; and are effectively managed and equitably governed. These areas are presented as "Nature's Strongholds," illustrated by examples from the Congo and Amazon basins. Conserving Nature's Strongholds offers an approach to scale up initiatives to address global threats to biodiversity.

Ghost roads and the destruction of Asia-Pacific tropical forests

Roads are expanding at the fastest pace in human history. This is the case especially in biodiversity-rich tropical nations, where roads can result in forest loss and fragmentation, wildfires, illicit land invasions and negative societal effects1-5. Many roads are being constructed illegally or informally and do not appear on any existing road map6-10; the toll of such 'ghost roads' on ecosystems is poorly understood. Here we use around 7,000 h of effort by trained volunteers to map ghost roads across the tropical Asia-Pacific region, sampling 1.42 million plots, each 1 km2 in area. Our intensive sampling revealed a total of 1.37 million km of roads in our plots-from 3.0 to 6.6 times more roads than were found in leading datasets of roads globally. Across our study area, road building almost always preceded local forest loss, and road density was by far the strongest correlate11 of deforestation out of 38 potential biophysical and socioeconomic covariates. The relationship between road density and forest loss was nonlinear, with deforestation peaking soon after roads penetrate a landscape and then declining as roads multiply and remaining accessible forests largely disappear. Notably, after controlling for lower road density inside protected areas, we found that protected areas had only modest additional effects on preventing forest loss, implying that their most vital conservation function is limiting roads and road-related environmental disruption. Collectively, our findings suggest that burgeoning, poorly studied ghost roads are among the gravest of all direct threats to tropical forests.

Human access constrains optimal foraging and habitat availability in an avian generalist

Animals balance costs of antipredator behaviors with resource acquisition to minimize hunting and other mortality risks and maximize their physiological condition. This inherent trade-off between forage abundance, its quality, and mortality risk is intensified in human-dominated landscapes because fragmentation, habitat loss, and degradation of natural vegetation communities is often coupled with artificially enhanced vegetation (i.e., food plots), creating high-risk, high-reward resource selection decisions. Our goal was to evaluate autumn-winter resource selection trade-offs for an intensively hunted avian generalist. We hypothesized human access was a reliable cue for hunting predation risk. Therefore, we predicted resource selection patterns would be spatiotemporally dependent upon levels of access and associated perceived risk. Specifically, we evaluated resource selection of local-scale flights between diel periods for 426 mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) relative to wetland type, forage quality, and differing levels of human access across hunting and nonhunting seasons. Mallards selected areas that prohibited human access and generally avoided areas that allowed access diurnally, especially during the hunting season. Mallards compensated by selecting for high-energy and greater quality foraging patches on allowable human access areas nocturnally when they were devoid of hunters. Postseason selection across human access gradients did not return to prehunting levels immediately, perhaps suggesting a delayed response to reacclimate to nonhunted activities and thus agreeing with the assessment mismatch hypothesis. Last, wetland availability and human access constrained selection for optimal natural forage quality (i.e., seed biomass and forage productivity) diurnally during preseason and hunting season, respectively; however, mallards were freed from these constraints nocturnally during hunting season and postseason periods. Our results suggest risk-avoidance of human accessible (i.e., hunted) areas is a primary driver of resource selection behaviors by mallards and could be a local to landscape-level process influencing distributions, instead of forage abundance and quality, which has long-been assumed by waterfowl conservation planners in North America. Broadly, even an avian generalist, well adapted to anthropogenic landscapes, avoids areas where hunting and human access are allowed. Future conservation planning and implementation must consider management for recreational access (i.e., people) equally important as foraging habitat management for wintering waterfowl.

Past and recent anthropogenic pressures drive rapid changes in riverine fish communities

Understanding how and why local communities change is a pressing task for conservation, especially in freshwater systems. It remains challenging because of the complexity of biodiversity changes, driven by the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of human pressures. Using a compilation of riverine fish community time series (93% between 1993 and 2019) across the Palaearctic, Nearctic and Australasia realms, we assessed how past and recent anthropogenic pressures drive community changes across both space and time. We found evidence of rapid changes in community composition of 30% per decade characterized by important changes in the dominant species, together with a 13% increase in total abundance per decade and a 7% increase in species richness per decade. The spatial heterogeneity in these trends could be traced back to the strength and timing of anthropogenic pressures and was mainly mediated by non-native species introductions. Specifically, we demonstrate that the negative effects of anthropogenic pressures on species richness and total abundance were compensated over time by the establishment of non-native species, a pattern consistent with previously reported biotic homogenization at the global scale. Overall, our study suggests that accounting for the complexity of community changes and its drivers is a crucial step to reach global conservation goals.

The effects of cities on quail (Coturnix coturnix) migration: a disturbing story of population connectivity, health, and ecography

The increasing impact of human activities on ecosystems is provoking a profound and dangerous effect, particularly in wildlife. Examining the historical migration patterns of quail (Coturnix coturnix) offers a compelling case study to demonstrate the repercussions of human actions on biodiversity. Urbanization trends, where people gravitate toward mega-urban areas, amplify this effect. The proliferation of artificial urban ecosystems extends its influence across every biome, as human reliance on infrastructure and food sources alters ecological dynamics extensively. We examine European quail migrations pre- and post-World War II and in the present day. Our study concentrates on the Italian peninsula, investigating the historical and contemporary recovery of ringed quail populations. To comprehend changes in quail migration, we utilize trajectory analysis, open statistical data, and linear generalized models. We found that while human population and economic growth have shown a linear increase, quail recovery rates exhibit a U-shaped trajectory, and cereal and legume production displays an inverse U-shaped pattern. Generalized linear models have unveiled the significant influence of several key factors-time periods, cereal and legume production, and human demographics-on quail recovery rates. These factors closely correlate with the levels of urbanization observed across these timeframes. These insights underscore the profound impact of expanding human populations and the rise of mega-urbanization on ecosystem dynamics and services. As our planet becomes more urbanized, the pressure on ecosystems intensifies, highlighting the urgent need for concerted efforts directed toward conserving and revitalizing ecosystem integrity. Simultaneously, manage the needs and demands of burgeoning mega-urban areas. Achieving this balance is pivotal to ensuring sustainable coexistence between urban improvement and the preservation of our natural environment.

Movement ecology of an endangered mesopredator in a mining landscape

BACKGROUND

Efficient movement and energy expenditure are vital for animal survival. Human disturbance can alter animal movement due to changes in resource availability and threats. Some animals can exploit anthropogenic disturbances for more efficient movement, while others face restricted or inefficient movement due to fragmentation of high-resource habitats, and risks associated with disturbed habitats. Mining, a major anthropogenic disturbance, removes natural habitats, introduces new landscape features, and alters resource distribution in the landscape. This study investigates the effect of mining on the movement of an endangered mesopredator, the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus). Using GPS collars and accelerometers, we investigate their habitat selection and energy expenditure in an active mining landscape, to determine the effects of this disturbance on northern quolls.

METHODS

We fit northern quolls with GPS collars and accelerometers during breeding and non-breeding season at an active mine site in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. We investigated broad-scale movement by calculating the movement ranges of quolls using utilisation distributions at the 95% isopleth, and compared habitat types and environmental characteristics within observed movement ranges to the available landscape. We investigated fine-scale movement by quolls with integrated step selection functions, assessing the relative selection strength for each habitat covariate. Finally, we used piecewise structural equation modelling to analyse the influence of each habitat covariate on northern quoll energy expenditure.

RESULTS

At the broad scale, northern quolls predominantly used rugged, rocky habitats, and used mining habitats in proportion to their availability. However, at the fine scale, habitat use varied between breeding and non-breeding seasons. During the breeding season, quolls notably avoided mining habitats, whereas in the non-breeding season, they frequented mining habitats equally to rocky and riparian habitats, albeit at a higher energetic cost.

CONCLUSION

Mining impacts northern quolls by fragmenting favoured rocky habitats, increasing energy expenditure, and potentially impacting breeding dispersal. While mining habitats might offer limited resource opportunities in the non-breeding season, conservation efforts during active mining, including the creation of movement corridors and progressive habitat restoration would likely be useful. However, prioritising the preservation of natural rocky and riparian habitats in mining landscapes is vital for northern quoll conservation.

The distribution and conservation of areas with microendemic species in a biodiversity hotspot: a multi-taxa approach

Background

Microendemic species are species with very small geographic distributions (ranges). Their presence delimitates areas with microendemic species (AMs), denoting a spatial unit comprising at least one population of at least one microendemic species. AMs are assumed to be distributed distinctively and associated with specific ecological, historical, and anthropogenic attributes. However, the level of influence of these factors remains unclear. Thus, we studied the distribution patterns of microendemic species within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest to (a) identify the region's AMs; (b) evaluate whether ecological (latitude, altitude, distance from the coastline), historical (climate stability), and anthropogenic (ecological integrity) attributes distinguish AMs from non-AMs; and (c) assess the conservation status of the Atlantic Forest's AMs.

Methods

We mapped the ranges of 1,362 microendemic species of angiosperms, freshwater fishes, and terrestrial vertebrates (snakes, passerine birds, and small mammals) to identify the region's AMs. Further, spatial autoregressive logit regression models were used to evaluate whether latitude, altitude, distance from the coastline, Climate Stability Index, and ecological integrity can be used to discern AMs from non-AMs. Moreover, the AMs' conservation status was assessed by evaluating the region's ecological integrity and conservation efforts (measured as the proportion of AMs in protected areas).

Results

We identified 261 AMs for angiosperm, 205 AMs for freshwater fishes, and 102 AMs for terrestrial vertebrates in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, totaling 474 AMs covering 23.8% of the region. The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is a large and complex biogeographic mosaic where AMs represent islands or archipelagoes surrounded by transition areas with no microendemic species. All local attributes help to distinguish AMs from non-AMs, but their impacts vary across taxonomic groups. Around 69% of AMs have low ecological integrity and poor conservation efforts, indicating that most microendemic species are under threat. This study provides insights into the biogeography of one of the most important global biodiversity hotspots, creating a foundation for comparative studies using other tropical forest regions.

More than two-fifths of the protected land in a global biodiversity hotspot in southwest China is under intense human pressure

Habitat loss is the main threat to global biodiversity in the Anthropocene. To prevent this, protected areas are the most effective means for safeguarding biodiversity. However, extensive habitat protection under human pressure can undermine its effectiveness. Using the Hengduan Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot in southwest China as an indicator, we assessed the extent and intensity of human pressure to highlight how these pressures have changed over time. We found that most ecoregions had high levels of intact habitat loss relative to areal protection by national nature reserves (NNRs). More than two-fifths of protected land is under intense human pressure, and lower elevation or smaller NNRs were subject to higher pressure. These increases have predominantly occurred in lower elevation NNRs, showing that elevation gradients correlate with increasing pressure. While protected areas are increasingly established, they are experiencing intense human pressure. Our findings provide useful insights for assessing resilience of protected areas and to prioritize areas where future conservation plans and actions should be focused in a changing world.

Uncovering the relationship between floating marine litter and human activities in watersheds

Rivers serve as the primary pathway for transporting floating marine litter (FML) from land to sea. However, the complex dynamics of transboundary rivers pose a significant obstacle when examining the impact of watershed-based human activities on FML distribution. This study conducts year-long monthly monitoring of FML using trawl and visual surveys in the coastal water of a peninsula dominated by indigenous rivers in south China. Overall, small pieces debris dominates FML in the nearshore waters of the peninsula, with meso-sized (0.5 cm-2.5 cm) FML accounting for 73.93 % of the total. The density of FML is more profoundly influenced by human activities within watersheds rather than its composition. Moreover, the association between human activity and FML density exhibits greater significant compared to variations based on geography and seasonality. This study provides a scientific basis for coastal protection and contributes for understanding of the mechanisms of marine litter transfer from land to sea.

Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

Human footprints in the Global South accelerate biomass carbon loss in ecologically sensitive regions

Human activities have placed significant pressure on the terrestrial biosphere, leading to ecosystem degradation and carbon losses. However, the full impact of these activities on terrestrial biomass carbon remains unexplored. In this study, we examined changes in global human footprint (HFP) and human-induced aboveground biomass carbon (AGBC) losses from 2000 to 2018. Our findings show an increasing trend in HFP globally, resulting in the conversion of wilderness areas to highly modified regions. These changes have altered global biomes' habitats, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. We also found accelerated AGBC loss driven by HFP expansion, with a total loss of 19.99 ± 0.196 PgC from 2000 to 2018, especially in tropical regions. Additionally, AGBC is more vulnerable in the Global South than in the Global North. Human activities threaten natural habitats, resulting in increasing AGBC loss even in strictly protected areas. Therefore, scientifically guided planning of future human activities is crucial to protect half of Earth through mitigation and adaptation under future risks of climate change and global urbanization.

Integrating human footprint with ensemble modelling identifies priority habitats for conservation: a case study in the distributional range of Arnebia euchroma, a vulnerable species

Climate change-driven rapid alteration of ecosystems globally is further complicated by growing anthropogenic pressures, especially in the ecologically sensitive mountainous regions. However, these two major drivers of change have largely been considered separately in species distribution models, thus compromising their reliability. Here, we integrated ensemble modelling with the human pressure index for predicting distribution and mapping priority regions across a whole range of occurrences for vulnerable species, Arnebia euchroma. Our results identified 3.08% of the study area as 'highly suitable', 2.45% as 'moderately suitable', and 94.45% as 'not suitable' or 'least suitable'. Compared to current climatic conditions, future RCP scenarios of 2050 and 2070 showed a significant loss in habitat suitability and a slight shift in the distribution pattern of the target species. By excluding the high-pressure areas of the human footprint from the predicted suitable habitats, we were able to identify the unique areas (70% of the predicted suitable area) that need special attention for conservation and restoration. Such models, if well implemented, may play a pivotal role in achieving the effective targets under the aegis of the current UN decade on ecological restoration (2021-2030) in accordance with SDG 15.4.

Reforestation success can be enhanced by improving tree planting methods

Successful cost-effective reforestation plantings depend substantially on maximising sapling survival from the time of planting, yet in reforestation programs remarkably little attention is given to management of saplings at the planting stage and to planting methods used. Critical determinants of sapling survival include their vigour and condition when planted, the wetness of the soil into which saplings are planted, the trauma of transplant shock from nursery to natural field soils, and the method and care taken during planting. While some determinants are outside planters' control, careful management of specific elements associated with outplanting can significantly lessen transplanting shock and improve survival rates. Results from three reforestation experiments designed to examine cost-effective planting methods in the Australian wet tropics provided the opportunity to examine the effects of specific planting treatments, including (1) watering regime prior to planting, (2) method of planting and planter technique, and (3) site preparation and maintenance, on sapling survival and establishment. Focusing on sapling root moisture and physical protection during planting improved sapling survival by at least 10% (>91% versus 81%) at 4 months. Survival rates of saplings under different planting treatments were reflected in longer-term survival of trees at 18-20 months, differing from a low of 52% up to 76-88%. This survival effect was evident more than 6 years after planting. Watering saplings immediately prior to planting, careful planting using a forester's planting spade in moist soil and suppressing grass competition using appropriate herbicides were critical to improved plant survival.

Behavioral responses of terrestrial mammals to COVID-19 lockdowns

COVID-19 lockdowns in early 2020 reduced human mobility, providing an opportunity to disentangle its effects on animals from those of landscape modifications. Using GPS data, we compared movements and road avoidance of 2300 terrestrial mammals (43 species) during the lockdowns to the same period in 2019. Individual responses were variable with no change in average movements or road avoidance behavior, likely due to variable lockdown conditions. However, under strict lockdowns 10-day 95th percentile displacements increased by 73%, suggesting increased landscape permeability. Animals' 1-hour 95th percentile displacements declined by 12% and animals were 36% closer to roads in areas of high human footprint, indicating reduced avoidance during lockdowns. Overall, lockdowns rapidly altered some spatial behaviors, highlighting variable but substantial impacts of human mobility on wildlife worldwide.

Human footprint is associated with shifts in the assemblages of major vector-borne diseases

Predicting how increasing intensity of human-environment interactions affects pathogen transmission is essential to anticipate changing disease risks and identify appropriate mitigation strategies. Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are highly responsive to environmental changes, but such responses are notoriously difficult to isolate because pathogen transmission depends on a suite of ecological and social responses in vectors and hosts that may differ across species. Here we use the emerging tools of cumulative pressure mapping and machine learning to better understand how the occurrence of six medically important VBDs, differing in ecology from sylvatic to urban, respond to multidimensional effects of human pressure. We find that not only is human footprint-an index of human pressure, incorporating built environments, energy and transportation infrastructure, agricultural lands and human population density-an important predictor of VBD occurrence, but there are clear thresholds governing the occurrence of different VBDs. Across a spectrum of human pressure, diseases associated with lower human pressure, including malaria, cutaneous leishmaniasis and visceral leishmaniasis, give way to diseases associated with high human pressure, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. These heterogeneous responses of VBDs to human pressure highlight thresholds of land-use transitions that may lead to abrupt shifts in infectious disease burdens and public health needs.

Toxic elements in arctic and sub-arctic brown bears: Blood concentrations of As, Cd, Hg and Pb in relation to diet, age, and human footprint

Contamination with arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg) and lead (Pb) is a global concern impairing resilience of organisms and ecosystems. Proximity to emission sources increases exposure risk but remoteness does not alleviate it. These toxic elements are transported in atmospheric and oceanic pathways and accumulate in organisms. Mercury accumulates in higher trophic levels. Brown bears (Ursus arctos), which often live in remote areas, are long-lived omnivores, feeding on salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and berries (Vaccinium spp.), resources also consumed by humans. We measured blood concentrations of As, Cd, Hg and Pb in bears (n = 72) four years and older in Scandinavia and three national parks in Alaska, USA (Lake Clark, Katmai and Gates of the Arctic) using high-resolution, inductively-coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry. Age and sex of the bears, as well as the typical population level diet was associated with blood element concentrations using generalized linear regression models. Alaskan bears consuming salmon had higher Hg blood concentrations compared to Scandinavian bears feeding on berries, ants (Formica spp.) and moose (Alces). Cadmium and Pb blood concentrations were higher in Scandinavian bears than in Alaskan bears. Bears using marine food sources, in addition to salmon in Katmai, had higher As blood concentrations than bears in Scandinavia. Blood concentrations of Cd and Pb, as well as for As in female bears increased with age. Arsenic in males and Hg concentrations decreased with age. We detected elevated levels of toxic elements in bears from landscapes that are among the most pristine on the planet. Sources are unknown but anthropogenic emissions are most likely involved. All study areas face upcoming change: Increasing tourism and mining in Alaska and more intensive forestry in Scandinavia, combined with global climate change in both regions. Baseline contaminant concentrations as presented here are important knowledge in our changing world.

Exploring multiple stressor effects with Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace: Research designs, modeling techniques, and future directions

Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors is a research priority in environmental science. Ecological models are a key component of tackling this challenge because they can simulate interactions between the components of an ecosystem. Here, we ask, how has the popular modeling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) been used to model human impacts related to climate change, land and sea use, pollution, and invasive species? We conducted a literature review encompassing 166 studies covering stressors other than fishing mostly in aquatic ecosystems. The most modeled stressors were physical climate change (60 studies), species introductions (22), habitat loss (21), and eutrophication (20), using a range of modeling techniques. Despite this comprehensive coverage, we identified four gaps that must be filled to harness the potential of EwE for studying multiple stressor effects. First, only 12% of studies investigated three or more stressors, with most studies focusing on single stressors. Furthermore, many studies modeled only one of many pathways through which each stressor is known to affect ecosystems. Second, various methods have been applied to define environmental response functions representing the effects of single stressors on species groups. These functions can have a large effect on the simulated ecological changes, but best practices for deriving them are yet to emerge. Third, human dimensions of environmental change - except for fisheries - were rarely considered. Fourth, only 3% of studies used statistical research designs that allow attribution of simulated ecosystem changes to stressors' direct effects and interactions, such as factorial (computational) experiments. None made full use of the statistical possibilities that arise when simulations can be repeated many times with controlled changes to the inputs. We argue that all four gaps are feasibly filled by integrating ecological modeling with advances in other subfields of environmental science and in computational statistics.

The vicious cycle of biophobia

People can express irrational fears and disgust responses towards certain wild organisms. This so-called 'biophobia' can be useful and indeed necessary in some circumstances. Biophobia can, however, also lead to excessive distress and anxiety which, in turn, can result in people avoiding interactions with nature. Here, we highlight concern that this reduction in interactions with nature might lead to progressive increases in biophobia, entrenching it more in individuals and across society. We propose the 'vicious cycle of biophobia', a concept that encapsulates how excessive aversion towards nature might emerge and grow in society. The vicious cycle of biophobia risks accelerating the extinction of experience, leading to long-term adverse consequences for the conservation of biodiversity.

Protected areas and the future of insect conservation

Anthropogenic pressures are driving insect declines across the world. Although protected areas (PAs) play a prominent role in safeguarding many vertebrate species from human-induced threats, insects are not widely considered when designing PA systems or building strategies for PA management. We review the effectiveness of PAs for insect conservation and find substantial taxonomic and geographic gaps in knowledge. Most research focuses on the representation of species, and few studies assess threats to insects or the role that effective PA management can play in insect conservation. We propose a four-step research agenda to help ensure that insects are central in efforts to expand the global PA network under the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.