Change in Terrestrial Human Footprint Drives Continued Loss of Intact Ecosystems

Effect of uneven tolerance to human disturbance on dominance interactions of top predators

Anthropogenic activities may alter felid assemblage structure, facilitating the persistence of tolerant species (commonly mesopredators), excluding ecologically demanding ones (top predators) and, consequently, changing coexistence rules. We aimed to determine how human activities influence intraguild relationships among top predators and their cascading effects on mesopredators, which remain poorly understood despite evidence of top carnivore decline. We used structural equation modeling at a continental scale to investigate how habitat quality and quantity, livestock density, and other human pressures modified the intraguild relations of the 3 species that are at the top of the food chain in the Neotropics: jaguars (Panthera onca), pumas (Puma concolor), and ocelots (Leopardus pardalis). We included presence-absence data derived from systematic studies compiled in Neocarnivores data set for these felid species at 0.0833° resolution. Human disturbance reduced the probability of jaguar occurrence by -0.35 standard deviations. Unexpectedly, the presence of sheep (Ovis aries) or goats (Capra aegagrus hircus) and jaguars was positively related to the presence of pumas, whereas puma presence was negatively related to the presence of ocelots. Extent of forest cover had more of an effect on jaguar (β = 0.23) and ocelot (β = 0.12) occurrences than the extent of protected area, which did not have a significant effect. The lack of effect of human activities on puma presence and the positive effect of small livestock supports the notion that pumas are more adaptable to habitat disturbance than jaguars. Our findings suggest that human disturbance has the potential to reverse the hierarchical competition dominance among large felids, leading to an unbalanced community structure. This shift disadvantages jaguars and elevates the position of pumas in the assemblage hierarchy, resulting in the exclusion of ocelots, despite their relatively lower susceptibility to anthropogenic disturbance. Our results suggest that conservation efforts should extend beyond protected areas to encompass the surrounding landscape, where complexities and potential conflicts are more pronounced.

Advancing EDGE Zones to identify spatial conservation priorities of tetrapod evolutionary history

The biodiversity crisis is pruning the Tree of Life in a way that threatens billions of years of evolutionary history and there is a need to understand where the greatest losses are predicted to occur. We therefore present threatened evolutionary history mapped for all tetrapod groups and describe patterns of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) species. Using a complementarity procedure with uncertainty incorporated for 33,628 species, we identify 25 priority tetrapod EDGE Zones, which are insufficiently protected and disproportionately exposed to high human pressure. Tetrapod EDGE Zones are spread over five continents, 33 countries, and 117 ecoregions. Together, they occupy 0.723% of the world's surface but harbour one-third of the world's threatened evolutionary history and EDGE tetrapod species, half of which is endemic. These EDGE Zones highlight areas of immediate concern for researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and communicators looking to safeguard the tetrapod Tree of Life.

Spatial variability in Arctic-boreal fire regimes influenced by environmental and human factors

Wildfire activity in Arctic and boreal regions is rapidly increasing, with severe consequences for climate and human health. Regional long-term variations in fire frequency and intensity characterize fire regimes. The spatial variability in Arctic-boreal fire regimes and their environmental and anthropogenic drivers, however, remain poorly understood. Here we present a fire tracking system to map the sub-daily evolution of all circumpolar Arctic-boreal fires between 2012 and 2023 using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections and the resulting dataset of the ignition time, location, size, duration, spread and intensity of individual fires. We use this dataset to classify the Arctic-boreal biomes into seven distinct 'pyroregions' with unique climatic and geographic environments. We find that these pyroregions exhibit varying responses to environmental drivers, with boreal North America, eastern Siberia and northern tundra regions showing the highest sensitivity to climate and lightning density. In addition, anthropogenic factors play an important role in influencing fire number and size, interacting with other factors. Understanding the spatial variability of fire regimes and its interconnected drivers in the Arctic-boreal domain is important for improving future predictions of fire activity and identifying areas at risk for extreme events.

Exploring the performance of protected areas in alleviating future human pressure

Protected areas (PAs) are effective in mitigating human pressures, yet their future pressure alleviating effects remain unclear. In this study, we employed the ConvLSTM model to forecast the future human footprint and analyzed human pressure trends using Theil-Sen median and Mann-Kendall tests. We further evaluated the mitigating effects of PAs within their buffer zones (1-10 km) and the contributions of different IUCN categories of PAs to mitigating human pressure using linear regression models. The results indicate that by 2035, the average human pressure value is expected to increase by 11%, with trends exhibiting a polarized pattern. Furthermore, PAs also effectively mitigate human pressure within their 1 km buffer zones. Different categories of PAs vary in their effectiveness in mitigating human pressure, and stricter conservation areas are not always the most effective. This study can offer insights for evaluating the effectiveness of PAs in reducing human pressure and advocate for their targeted management in urban areas.

Global expansion of human-wildlife overlap in the 21st century

Understanding the extent to which people and wildlife overlap in space and time is critical for the conservation of biodiversity and ecological services. Yet, how global change will reshape the future of human-wildlife overlap has not been assessed. We show that the potential spatial overlap of global human populations and 22,374 terrestrial vertebrate species will increase across ~56.6% and decrease across only ~11.8% of the Earth's terrestrial surface by 2070. Increases are driven primarily by intensification of human population densities, not change in wildlife distributions caused by climate change. The strong spatial heterogeneity of future human-wildlife overlap found in our study makes it clear that local context is imperative to consider, and more targeted area-based land-use planning should be integrated into systematic conservation planning.

Global mismatches between threat mapping research effort and the potential of threat abatement actions to reduce extinction risk

Threat mapping is a necessary tool for identifying and abating direct threats to species in the ongoing extinction crisis. There are known gaps in the threat mapping literature for particular threats and geographic locations, and it remains unclear if the distribution of research effort is appropriately targeted relative to conservation need. We aimed to determine the drivers of threat mapping research effort and to quantify gaps that, if filled, could inform actions with the highest potential to reduce species' extinction risk. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model to analyze research effort as a function of threat abatement potential (quantified as the potential reduction in species extinction risk from abating threats), species richness, land area, and human pressure. The model showed that threat mapping research effort increased by 1.1 to 1.2 times per standardized unit change in threat abatement potential. However, species richness and land area were stronger predictors of research effort overall. The greatest areas of mismatch between research effort and threat abatement potential, receiving disproportionately low research effort, were related to the threats to species of agriculture, aquaculture, and biological resource use across the tropical regions of the Americas, Asia, and Madagascar. Conversely, the threat of linear infrastructure (e.g., roads and rails) across regions, the threat of biological resource use (e.g., hunting or collection) in sub-Saharan Africa, and overall threats in North America and Europe all received disproportionately high research effort. We discuss the range of methodological and sociopolitical factors that may be behind the overall trends and specific areas of mismatch we found. We urge a stronger emphasis on targeting research effort toward those threats and geographic locations where threat abatement activities could make the greatest contribution to reducing global species extinction risk.

Global patterns of human-wildlife spatial associations and implications for differentiating conservation strategies

Understanding the global patterns of human and wildlife spatial associations is essential for pragmatic conservation implementation, yet analytical foundations and indicator-based assessments that would further this understanding are lacking. We integrated the global distributions of 30,664 terrestrial vertebrates and human pressures to map human-nature index (HNI) categories that indicate the extent and intensity of human-wildlife interactions. Along the 2 dimensions of biodiversity and human activity, the HNI allowed placement of terrestrial areas worldwide in one of 4 HNI categories: anthropic (human-dominated areas), wildlife-dominated (little human influence and rich in wildlife), co-occurring (substantial presence of humans and wildlife), and harsh-environment (limited presence of humans and wildlife) areas. The HNI varied considerably among taxonomic groups, and the leading driver of HNI was global climate patterns. Co-occurring regions were the most prevalent (35.9%), and wildlife-dominated and anthropic regions encompassed 26.45% and 6.50% of land area, respectively. Our results highlight the necessity for customizing conservation strategies to regions based on human-wildlife spatial associations and the distribution of existing protected area networks. Human activity and biodiversity should be integrated for complementary strategies to support conservation toward ambitious and pragmatic 30×30 goals.

A systematic analysis and review of soil organic carbon stocks in urban greenspaces

Urban greenspaces typically refer to urban wetland, urban forest and urban turfgrass. They play a critical role in carbon sequestration by absorbing carbon from the atmosphere; however, their capacity to retain and store carbon in the form of soil organic carbon (SOC) varies significantly. This study provides a systematic analysis and review on the capacity of different urban greenspace types in retaining and storing SOC in 30 cm soil depth on a global scale. Data came from 78 publications on the subject of SOC stocks, covering different countries and climate zones. Overall, urban greenspace types exerted significant influences on the spatial pattern of SOC stocks, with the highest value of 18.86 ± 11.57 kg m-2 (mean ± standard deviation) in urban wetland, followed by urban forest (6.50 ± 3.65 kg m-2), while the lowest mean value of 4.24 ± 3.28 kg m-2 was recorded in urban turfgrass soil. Soil organic carbon stocks in each urban greenspace type were significantly affected by climate zones, management/environmental settings, and selected soil properties (i.e. soil bulk density, pH and clay content). Furthermore, our analysis showed a significantly negative correlation between SOC stocks and human footprint in urban wetland, but a significantly positive relationship in urban forest and urban turfgrass. A positive correlation between SOC stocks and human footprint indicates that increased human activity and development can enhance SOC stocks through effective management and green infrastructure. Conversely, a negative correlation suggests that improper management of human activities can degrade SOC stocks. This highlights the need for sustainable practices to maintain or enhance SOC accumulation in urban greenspaces.

The effectiveness of natural reserves from the perspective of habitat quality in the southern section of the Hengduan Mountains, Southwestern China

Natural reserves (NRs) play key roles in habitat integrity conservation and biodiversity loss mitigation, and the assessment of the conservation effectiveness of NRs is needed to better manage them. Habitat quality (HQ) comprehensively reflects habitat integrity and biodiversity, but the conservation effectiveness of NRs from the perspective of HQ has rarely been determined at high spatial resolution. Taking the southern section of the Hengduan Mountains (SSHM) in Southwest China as an example, combining an InVEST-HQ model and spatiotemporal change detection methods, the effectiveness of NRs from the perspective of HQ at 30-m spatial resolution was assessed in this study. The effectiveness disparities of NRs across different properties (i.e., management level, conservation target, size, and establishment age) was analyzed and the human pressures on NRs was investigated. The results showed that the HQ of the NRs is good in the SSHM, with the area ratio of the Higher and Highest HQ ≥ 93%. Most of the NR area (94.11%) was effective at improving or maintaining a good HQ. With regard to NR properties, county NRs, NRs designated to conserving wild animals, middle NRs, and younger NRs were more effective, corresponding to management level, conservation target, size, and establishment age, respectively. The human footprint for an effective area is significantly lower than that for an ineffective area, consistent with higher HQ in the effective area and lower HQ in the ineffective area. These findings support the management and zoning of NRs in the SSHM to ensure their effectiveness.

Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types

Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Scaling up area-based conservation to implement the Global Biodiversity Framework's 30x30 target: The role of Nature's Strongholds

The Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), signed in 2022 by Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, recognized the importance of area-based conservation, and its goals and targets specify the characteristics of protected and conserved areas (PCAs) that disproportionately contribute to biodiversity conservation. To achieve the GBF's target of conserving a global area of 30% by 2030, this Essay argues for recognizing these characteristics and scaling them up through the conservation of areas that are: extensive (typically larger than 5,000 km2); have interconnected PCAs (either physically or as part of a jurisdictional network, and frequently embedded in larger conservation landscapes); have high ecological integrity; and are effectively managed and equitably governed. These areas are presented as "Nature's Strongholds," illustrated by examples from the Congo and Amazon basins. Conserving Nature's Strongholds offers an approach to scale up initiatives to address global threats to biodiversity.

Ghost roads and the destruction of Asia-Pacific tropical forests

Roads are expanding at the fastest pace in human history. This is the case especially in biodiversity-rich tropical nations, where roads can result in forest loss and fragmentation, wildfires, illicit land invasions and negative societal effects1-5. Many roads are being constructed illegally or informally and do not appear on any existing road map6-10; the toll of such 'ghost roads' on ecosystems is poorly understood. Here we use around 7,000 h of effort by trained volunteers to map ghost roads across the tropical Asia-Pacific region, sampling 1.42 million plots, each 1 km2 in area. Our intensive sampling revealed a total of 1.37 million km of roads in our plots-from 3.0 to 6.6 times more roads than were found in leading datasets of roads globally. Across our study area, road building almost always preceded local forest loss, and road density was by far the strongest correlate11 of deforestation out of 38 potential biophysical and socioeconomic covariates. The relationship between road density and forest loss was nonlinear, with deforestation peaking soon after roads penetrate a landscape and then declining as roads multiply and remaining accessible forests largely disappear. Notably, after controlling for lower road density inside protected areas, we found that protected areas had only modest additional effects on preventing forest loss, implying that their most vital conservation function is limiting roads and road-related environmental disruption. Collectively, our findings suggest that burgeoning, poorly studied ghost roads are among the gravest of all direct threats to tropical forests.

Human access constrains optimal foraging and habitat availability in an avian generalist

Animals balance costs of antipredator behaviors with resource acquisition to minimize hunting and other mortality risks and maximize their physiological condition. This inherent trade-off between forage abundance, its quality, and mortality risk is intensified in human-dominated landscapes because fragmentation, habitat loss, and degradation of natural vegetation communities is often coupled with artificially enhanced vegetation (i.e., food plots), creating high-risk, high-reward resource selection decisions. Our goal was to evaluate autumn-winter resource selection trade-offs for an intensively hunted avian generalist. We hypothesized human access was a reliable cue for hunting predation risk. Therefore, we predicted resource selection patterns would be spatiotemporally dependent upon levels of access and associated perceived risk. Specifically, we evaluated resource selection of local-scale flights between diel periods for 426 mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) relative to wetland type, forage quality, and differing levels of human access across hunting and nonhunting seasons. Mallards selected areas that prohibited human access and generally avoided areas that allowed access diurnally, especially during the hunting season. Mallards compensated by selecting for high-energy and greater quality foraging patches on allowable human access areas nocturnally when they were devoid of hunters. Postseason selection across human access gradients did not return to prehunting levels immediately, perhaps suggesting a delayed response to reacclimate to nonhunted activities and thus agreeing with the assessment mismatch hypothesis. Last, wetland availability and human access constrained selection for optimal natural forage quality (i.e., seed biomass and forage productivity) diurnally during preseason and hunting season, respectively; however, mallards were freed from these constraints nocturnally during hunting season and postseason periods. Our results suggest risk-avoidance of human accessible (i.e., hunted) areas is a primary driver of resource selection behaviors by mallards and could be a local to landscape-level process influencing distributions, instead of forage abundance and quality, which has long-been assumed by waterfowl conservation planners in North America. Broadly, even an avian generalist, well adapted to anthropogenic landscapes, avoids areas where hunting and human access are allowed. Future conservation planning and implementation must consider management for recreational access (i.e., people) equally important as foraging habitat management for wintering waterfowl.

Past and recent anthropogenic pressures drive rapid changes in riverine fish communities

Understanding how and why local communities change is a pressing task for conservation, especially in freshwater systems. It remains challenging because of the complexity of biodiversity changes, driven by the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of human pressures. Using a compilation of riverine fish community time series (93% between 1993 and 2019) across the Palaearctic, Nearctic and Australasia realms, we assessed how past and recent anthropogenic pressures drive community changes across both space and time. We found evidence of rapid changes in community composition of 30% per decade characterized by important changes in the dominant species, together with a 13% increase in total abundance per decade and a 7% increase in species richness per decade. The spatial heterogeneity in these trends could be traced back to the strength and timing of anthropogenic pressures and was mainly mediated by non-native species introductions. Specifically, we demonstrate that the negative effects of anthropogenic pressures on species richness and total abundance were compensated over time by the establishment of non-native species, a pattern consistent with previously reported biotic homogenization at the global scale. Overall, our study suggests that accounting for the complexity of community changes and its drivers is a crucial step to reach global conservation goals.

The effects of cities on quail (Coturnix coturnix) migration: a disturbing story of population connectivity, health, and ecography

The increasing impact of human activities on ecosystems is provoking a profound and dangerous effect, particularly in wildlife. Examining the historical migration patterns of quail (Coturnix coturnix) offers a compelling case study to demonstrate the repercussions of human actions on biodiversity. Urbanization trends, where people gravitate toward mega-urban areas, amplify this effect. The proliferation of artificial urban ecosystems extends its influence across every biome, as human reliance on infrastructure and food sources alters ecological dynamics extensively. We examine European quail migrations pre- and post-World War II and in the present day. Our study concentrates on the Italian peninsula, investigating the historical and contemporary recovery of ringed quail populations. To comprehend changes in quail migration, we utilize trajectory analysis, open statistical data, and linear generalized models. We found that while human population and economic growth have shown a linear increase, quail recovery rates exhibit a U-shaped trajectory, and cereal and legume production displays an inverse U-shaped pattern. Generalized linear models have unveiled the significant influence of several key factors-time periods, cereal and legume production, and human demographics-on quail recovery rates. These factors closely correlate with the levels of urbanization observed across these timeframes. These insights underscore the profound impact of expanding human populations and the rise of mega-urbanization on ecosystem dynamics and services. As our planet becomes more urbanized, the pressure on ecosystems intensifies, highlighting the urgent need for concerted efforts directed toward conserving and revitalizing ecosystem integrity. Simultaneously, manage the needs and demands of burgeoning mega-urban areas. Achieving this balance is pivotal to ensuring sustainable coexistence between urban improvement and the preservation of our natural environment.

Movement ecology of an endangered mesopredator in a mining landscape

BACKGROUND

Efficient movement and energy expenditure are vital for animal survival. Human disturbance can alter animal movement due to changes in resource availability and threats. Some animals can exploit anthropogenic disturbances for more efficient movement, while others face restricted or inefficient movement due to fragmentation of high-resource habitats, and risks associated with disturbed habitats. Mining, a major anthropogenic disturbance, removes natural habitats, introduces new landscape features, and alters resource distribution in the landscape. This study investigates the effect of mining on the movement of an endangered mesopredator, the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus). Using GPS collars and accelerometers, we investigate their habitat selection and energy expenditure in an active mining landscape, to determine the effects of this disturbance on northern quolls.

METHODS

We fit northern quolls with GPS collars and accelerometers during breeding and non-breeding season at an active mine site in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. We investigated broad-scale movement by calculating the movement ranges of quolls using utilisation distributions at the 95% isopleth, and compared habitat types and environmental characteristics within observed movement ranges to the available landscape. We investigated fine-scale movement by quolls with integrated step selection functions, assessing the relative selection strength for each habitat covariate. Finally, we used piecewise structural equation modelling to analyse the influence of each habitat covariate on northern quoll energy expenditure.

RESULTS

At the broad scale, northern quolls predominantly used rugged, rocky habitats, and used mining habitats in proportion to their availability. However, at the fine scale, habitat use varied between breeding and non-breeding seasons. During the breeding season, quolls notably avoided mining habitats, whereas in the non-breeding season, they frequented mining habitats equally to rocky and riparian habitats, albeit at a higher energetic cost.

CONCLUSION

Mining impacts northern quolls by fragmenting favoured rocky habitats, increasing energy expenditure, and potentially impacting breeding dispersal. While mining habitats might offer limited resource opportunities in the non-breeding season, conservation efforts during active mining, including the creation of movement corridors and progressive habitat restoration would likely be useful. However, prioritising the preservation of natural rocky and riparian habitats in mining landscapes is vital for northern quoll conservation.

The distribution and conservation of areas with microendemic species in a biodiversity hotspot: a multi-taxa approach

Background

Microendemic species are species with very small geographic distributions (ranges). Their presence delimitates areas with microendemic species (AMs), denoting a spatial unit comprising at least one population of at least one microendemic species. AMs are assumed to be distributed distinctively and associated with specific ecological, historical, and anthropogenic attributes. However, the level of influence of these factors remains unclear. Thus, we studied the distribution patterns of microendemic species within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest to (a) identify the region's AMs; (b) evaluate whether ecological (latitude, altitude, distance from the coastline), historical (climate stability), and anthropogenic (ecological integrity) attributes distinguish AMs from non-AMs; and (c) assess the conservation status of the Atlantic Forest's AMs.

Methods

We mapped the ranges of 1,362 microendemic species of angiosperms, freshwater fishes, and terrestrial vertebrates (snakes, passerine birds, and small mammals) to identify the region's AMs. Further, spatial autoregressive logit regression models were used to evaluate whether latitude, altitude, distance from the coastline, Climate Stability Index, and ecological integrity can be used to discern AMs from non-AMs. Moreover, the AMs' conservation status was assessed by evaluating the region's ecological integrity and conservation efforts (measured as the proportion of AMs in protected areas).

Results

We identified 261 AMs for angiosperm, 205 AMs for freshwater fishes, and 102 AMs for terrestrial vertebrates in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, totaling 474 AMs covering 23.8% of the region. The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is a large and complex biogeographic mosaic where AMs represent islands or archipelagoes surrounded by transition areas with no microendemic species. All local attributes help to distinguish AMs from non-AMs, but their impacts vary across taxonomic groups. Around 69% of AMs have low ecological integrity and poor conservation efforts, indicating that most microendemic species are under threat. This study provides insights into the biogeography of one of the most important global biodiversity hotspots, creating a foundation for comparative studies using other tropical forest regions.

More than two-fifths of the protected land in a global biodiversity hotspot in southwest China is under intense human pressure

Habitat loss is the main threat to global biodiversity in the Anthropocene. To prevent this, protected areas are the most effective means for safeguarding biodiversity. However, extensive habitat protection under human pressure can undermine its effectiveness. Using the Hengduan Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot in southwest China as an indicator, we assessed the extent and intensity of human pressure to highlight how these pressures have changed over time. We found that most ecoregions had high levels of intact habitat loss relative to areal protection by national nature reserves (NNRs). More than two-fifths of protected land is under intense human pressure, and lower elevation or smaller NNRs were subject to higher pressure. These increases have predominantly occurred in lower elevation NNRs, showing that elevation gradients correlate with increasing pressure. While protected areas are increasingly established, they are experiencing intense human pressure. Our findings provide useful insights for assessing resilience of protected areas and to prioritize areas where future conservation plans and actions should be focused in a changing world.

Uncovering the relationship between floating marine litter and human activities in watersheds

Rivers serve as the primary pathway for transporting floating marine litter (FML) from land to sea. However, the complex dynamics of transboundary rivers pose a significant obstacle when examining the impact of watershed-based human activities on FML distribution. This study conducts year-long monthly monitoring of FML using trawl and visual surveys in the coastal water of a peninsula dominated by indigenous rivers in south China. Overall, small pieces debris dominates FML in the nearshore waters of the peninsula, with meso-sized (0.5 cm-2.5 cm) FML accounting for 73.93 % of the total. The density of FML is more profoundly influenced by human activities within watersheds rather than its composition. Moreover, the association between human activity and FML density exhibits greater significant compared to variations based on geography and seasonality. This study provides a scientific basis for coastal protection and contributes for understanding of the mechanisms of marine litter transfer from land to sea.

Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

Human footprints in the Global South accelerate biomass carbon loss in ecologically sensitive regions

Human activities have placed significant pressure on the terrestrial biosphere, leading to ecosystem degradation and carbon losses. However, the full impact of these activities on terrestrial biomass carbon remains unexplored. In this study, we examined changes in global human footprint (HFP) and human-induced aboveground biomass carbon (AGBC) losses from 2000 to 2018. Our findings show an increasing trend in HFP globally, resulting in the conversion of wilderness areas to highly modified regions. These changes have altered global biomes' habitats, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. We also found accelerated AGBC loss driven by HFP expansion, with a total loss of 19.99 ± 0.196 PgC from 2000 to 2018, especially in tropical regions. Additionally, AGBC is more vulnerable in the Global South than in the Global North. Human activities threaten natural habitats, resulting in increasing AGBC loss even in strictly protected areas. Therefore, scientifically guided planning of future human activities is crucial to protect half of Earth through mitigation and adaptation under future risks of climate change and global urbanization.

Integrating human footprint with ensemble modelling identifies priority habitats for conservation: a case study in the distributional range of Arnebia euchroma, a vulnerable species

Climate change-driven rapid alteration of ecosystems globally is further complicated by growing anthropogenic pressures, especially in the ecologically sensitive mountainous regions. However, these two major drivers of change have largely been considered separately in species distribution models, thus compromising their reliability. Here, we integrated ensemble modelling with the human pressure index for predicting distribution and mapping priority regions across a whole range of occurrences for vulnerable species, Arnebia euchroma. Our results identified 3.08% of the study area as 'highly suitable', 2.45% as 'moderately suitable', and 94.45% as 'not suitable' or 'least suitable'. Compared to current climatic conditions, future RCP scenarios of 2050 and 2070 showed a significant loss in habitat suitability and a slight shift in the distribution pattern of the target species. By excluding the high-pressure areas of the human footprint from the predicted suitable habitats, we were able to identify the unique areas (70% of the predicted suitable area) that need special attention for conservation and restoration. Such models, if well implemented, may play a pivotal role in achieving the effective targets under the aegis of the current UN decade on ecological restoration (2021-2030) in accordance with SDG 15.4.

Reforestation success can be enhanced by improving tree planting methods

Successful cost-effective reforestation plantings depend substantially on maximising sapling survival from the time of planting, yet in reforestation programs remarkably little attention is given to management of saplings at the planting stage and to planting methods used. Critical determinants of sapling survival include their vigour and condition when planted, the wetness of the soil into which saplings are planted, the trauma of transplant shock from nursery to natural field soils, and the method and care taken during planting. While some determinants are outside planters' control, careful management of specific elements associated with outplanting can significantly lessen transplanting shock and improve survival rates. Results from three reforestation experiments designed to examine cost-effective planting methods in the Australian wet tropics provided the opportunity to examine the effects of specific planting treatments, including (1) watering regime prior to planting, (2) method of planting and planter technique, and (3) site preparation and maintenance, on sapling survival and establishment. Focusing on sapling root moisture and physical protection during planting improved sapling survival by at least 10% (>91% versus 81%) at 4 months. Survival rates of saplings under different planting treatments were reflected in longer-term survival of trees at 18-20 months, differing from a low of 52% up to 76-88%. This survival effect was evident more than 6 years after planting. Watering saplings immediately prior to planting, careful planting using a forester's planting spade in moist soil and suppressing grass competition using appropriate herbicides were critical to improved plant survival.

Behavioral responses of terrestrial mammals to COVID-19 lockdowns

COVID-19 lockdowns in early 2020 reduced human mobility, providing an opportunity to disentangle its effects on animals from those of landscape modifications. Using GPS data, we compared movements and road avoidance of 2300 terrestrial mammals (43 species) during the lockdowns to the same period in 2019. Individual responses were variable with no change in average movements or road avoidance behavior, likely due to variable lockdown conditions. However, under strict lockdowns 10-day 95th percentile displacements increased by 73%, suggesting increased landscape permeability. Animals' 1-hour 95th percentile displacements declined by 12% and animals were 36% closer to roads in areas of high human footprint, indicating reduced avoidance during lockdowns. Overall, lockdowns rapidly altered some spatial behaviors, highlighting variable but substantial impacts of human mobility on wildlife worldwide.

Human footprint is associated with shifts in the assemblages of major vector-borne diseases

Predicting how increasing intensity of human-environment interactions affects pathogen transmission is essential to anticipate changing disease risks and identify appropriate mitigation strategies. Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are highly responsive to environmental changes, but such responses are notoriously difficult to isolate because pathogen transmission depends on a suite of ecological and social responses in vectors and hosts that may differ across species. Here we use the emerging tools of cumulative pressure mapping and machine learning to better understand how the occurrence of six medically important VBDs, differing in ecology from sylvatic to urban, respond to multidimensional effects of human pressure. We find that not only is human footprint-an index of human pressure, incorporating built environments, energy and transportation infrastructure, agricultural lands and human population density-an important predictor of VBD occurrence, but there are clear thresholds governing the occurrence of different VBDs. Across a spectrum of human pressure, diseases associated with lower human pressure, including malaria, cutaneous leishmaniasis and visceral leishmaniasis, give way to diseases associated with high human pressure, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. These heterogeneous responses of VBDs to human pressure highlight thresholds of land-use transitions that may lead to abrupt shifts in infectious disease burdens and public health needs.

Toxic elements in arctic and sub-arctic brown bears: Blood concentrations of As, Cd, Hg and Pb in relation to diet, age, and human footprint

Contamination with arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg) and lead (Pb) is a global concern impairing resilience of organisms and ecosystems. Proximity to emission sources increases exposure risk but remoteness does not alleviate it. These toxic elements are transported in atmospheric and oceanic pathways and accumulate in organisms. Mercury accumulates in higher trophic levels. Brown bears (Ursus arctos), which often live in remote areas, are long-lived omnivores, feeding on salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and berries (Vaccinium spp.), resources also consumed by humans. We measured blood concentrations of As, Cd, Hg and Pb in bears (n = 72) four years and older in Scandinavia and three national parks in Alaska, USA (Lake Clark, Katmai and Gates of the Arctic) using high-resolution, inductively-coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry. Age and sex of the bears, as well as the typical population level diet was associated with blood element concentrations using generalized linear regression models. Alaskan bears consuming salmon had higher Hg blood concentrations compared to Scandinavian bears feeding on berries, ants (Formica spp.) and moose (Alces). Cadmium and Pb blood concentrations were higher in Scandinavian bears than in Alaskan bears. Bears using marine food sources, in addition to salmon in Katmai, had higher As blood concentrations than bears in Scandinavia. Blood concentrations of Cd and Pb, as well as for As in female bears increased with age. Arsenic in males and Hg concentrations decreased with age. We detected elevated levels of toxic elements in bears from landscapes that are among the most pristine on the planet. Sources are unknown but anthropogenic emissions are most likely involved. All study areas face upcoming change: Increasing tourism and mining in Alaska and more intensive forestry in Scandinavia, combined with global climate change in both regions. Baseline contaminant concentrations as presented here are important knowledge in our changing world.

Exploring multiple stressor effects with Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace: Research designs, modeling techniques, and future directions

Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors is a research priority in environmental science. Ecological models are a key component of tackling this challenge because they can simulate interactions between the components of an ecosystem. Here, we ask, how has the popular modeling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) been used to model human impacts related to climate change, land and sea use, pollution, and invasive species? We conducted a literature review encompassing 166 studies covering stressors other than fishing mostly in aquatic ecosystems. The most modeled stressors were physical climate change (60 studies), species introductions (22), habitat loss (21), and eutrophication (20), using a range of modeling techniques. Despite this comprehensive coverage, we identified four gaps that must be filled to harness the potential of EwE for studying multiple stressor effects. First, only 12% of studies investigated three or more stressors, with most studies focusing on single stressors. Furthermore, many studies modeled only one of many pathways through which each stressor is known to affect ecosystems. Second, various methods have been applied to define environmental response functions representing the effects of single stressors on species groups. These functions can have a large effect on the simulated ecological changes, but best practices for deriving them are yet to emerge. Third, human dimensions of environmental change - except for fisheries - were rarely considered. Fourth, only 3% of studies used statistical research designs that allow attribution of simulated ecosystem changes to stressors' direct effects and interactions, such as factorial (computational) experiments. None made full use of the statistical possibilities that arise when simulations can be repeated many times with controlled changes to the inputs. We argue that all four gaps are feasibly filled by integrating ecological modeling with advances in other subfields of environmental science and in computational statistics.

The vicious cycle of biophobia

People can express irrational fears and disgust responses towards certain wild organisms. This so-called 'biophobia' can be useful and indeed necessary in some circumstances. Biophobia can, however, also lead to excessive distress and anxiety which, in turn, can result in people avoiding interactions with nature. Here, we highlight concern that this reduction in interactions with nature might lead to progressive increases in biophobia, entrenching it more in individuals and across society. We propose the 'vicious cycle of biophobia', a concept that encapsulates how excessive aversion towards nature might emerge and grow in society. The vicious cycle of biophobia risks accelerating the extinction of experience, leading to long-term adverse consequences for the conservation of biodiversity.

Protected areas and the future of insect conservation

Anthropogenic pressures are driving insect declines across the world. Although protected areas (PAs) play a prominent role in safeguarding many vertebrate species from human-induced threats, insects are not widely considered when designing PA systems or building strategies for PA management. We review the effectiveness of PAs for insect conservation and find substantial taxonomic and geographic gaps in knowledge. Most research focuses on the representation of species, and few studies assess threats to insects or the role that effective PA management can play in insect conservation. We propose a four-step research agenda to help ensure that insects are central in efforts to expand the global PA network under the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.

Humid tropical vertebrates are at lower risk of extinction and population decline in forests with higher structural integrity

Reducing deforestation underpins global biodiversity conservation efforts. However, this focus on retaining forest cover overlooks the multitude of anthropogenic pressures that can degrade forest quality and imperil biodiversity. We use remotely sensed indices of tropical rainforest structural condition and associated human pressures to quantify the relative importance of forest cover, structural condition and integrity (the cumulative effect of condition and pressures) on vertebrate species extinction risk and population trends across the global humid tropics. We found that tropical rainforests of high integrity (structurally intact and under low pressures) were associated with lower likelihood of species being threatened and having declining populations, compared with forest cover alone (without consideration of condition and pressures). Further, species were more likely to be threatened or have declining populations if their geographic ranges contained high proportions of degraded forest than if their ranges contained lower proportions of forest cover but of high quality. Our work suggests that biodiversity conservation policies to preserve forest integrity are now urgently required alongside ongoing efforts to halt deforestation in the hyperdiverse humid tropics.

Land-use and climate risk assessment for Earth's remaining wilderness

Earth's wilderness areas are reservoirs of genetic information and carbon storage systems, and are vital to reducing extinction risks. Retaining the conservation value of these areas is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals; however, climate and land-use risk can undermine their ability to provide these functions. The extent to which wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by these drivers has not previously been quantified. Using climate and land-use change during baseline (1971-2005) and future (2016-2050) periods, we estimate that these stressors within wilderness areas will increase by ca. 60% and 39%, respectively, under a scenario of high emission and land-use change (SSP5-RCP8.5). Nearly half (49%) of all wilderness areas could experience substantial climate change by 2050 under this scenario, potentially limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. Notable climate (>5 km year^-1) and land-use (>0.25 km year^-1) changes are expected to occur more rapidly in the unprotected wilderness, including the edges of the Amazonian wilderness, Northern Russia, and Central Africa, which support unique assemblages of species and are critical for the preservation of biodiversity. However, an alternative scenario of sustainable development (SSP1-RCP2.6) would attenuate the projected climate velocity and land-use instability by 54% and 6%, respectively. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving the remaining intact natural ecosystems can help fortify these bastions of biodiversity.

Identifying ecosystem service value and potential loss of wilderness areas in China to support post-2020 global biodiversity conservation

Preserving wilderness areas is one of the key goals in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework(GBF). However, far too little attention has been paid to identifying wilderness conservation priorities on the national scale. In this study, we developed a methodological framework to evaluate the ecosystem service values, potential loss and conservation priorities of wilderness areas in China, providing guidance for wilderness conservation. First, we assessed the conservation value of wilderness areas and found that wilderness areas provided more ecosystem services than non-wilderness areas per unit area in most ecoregions. Then we identified threatened wilderness areas under multiple scenarios due to land use and land cover change. We found that 5.82 % of the existing wilderness areas were projected to be lost by 2100. Finally, wilderness conservation priorities were identified considering both conservation values and potential loss, and 11.24 % of existing wilderness areas were highlighted as conservation priorities. This methodological framework could be applied to other countries to support post-2020 global biodiversity conservation.

Land use, season, and parasitism predict metal concentrations in Australian flying fox fur

Urban-living wildlife can be exposed to metal contaminants dispersed into the environment through industrial, residential, and agricultural applications. Metal exposure carries lethal and sublethal consequences for animals; in particular, heavy metals (e.g. arsenic, lead, mercury) can damage organs and act as carcinogens. Many bat species reside and forage in human-modified habitats and could be exposed to contaminants in air, water, and food. We quantified metal concentrations in fur samples from three flying fox species (Pteropus fruit bats) captured at eight sites in eastern Australia. For subsets of bats, we assessed ectoparasite burden, haemoparasite infection, and viral infection, and performed white blood cell differential counts. We examined relationships among metal concentrations, environmental predictors (season, land use surrounding capture site), and individual predictors (species, sex, age, body condition, parasitism, neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio). As expected, bats captured at sites with greater human impact had higher metal loads. At one site with seasonal sampling, bats had higher metal concentrations in winter than in summer, possibly owing to changes in food availability and foraging. Relationships between ectoparasites and metal concentrations were mixed, suggesting multiple causal mechanisms. There was no association between overall metal load and neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio, but mercury concentrations were positively correlated with this ratio, which is associated with stress in other vertebrate taxa. Comparison of our findings to those of previous flying fox studies revealed potentially harmful levels of several metals; in particular, endangered spectacled flying foxes (P. conspicillatus) exhibited high concentrations of cadmium and lead. Because some bats harbor pathogens transmissible to humans and animals, future research should explore interactions between metal exposure, immunity, and infection to assess consequences for bat and human health.

Long-term changes in avian biomass and functional diversity within disturbed and undisturbed Amazonian rainforest

Recent long-term studies in protected areas have revealed the loss of biodiversity, yet the ramifications for ecosystem health and resilience remain unknown. Here, we investigate how the loss of understory birds, in the lowest stratum of the forest, affects avian biomass and functional diversity in the Amazon rainforest. Across approximately 30 years in the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, we used a historical baseline of avian communities to contrast the avian communities in today's primary forest with those in modern disturbed habitat. We found that in primary rainforest, the reduced abundance of insectivorous species led to reduced functional diversity, but no reduction of biomass, indicating that species with similar functional traits are less likely to coexist in modern primary forests. Because today's forests contain fewer functionally redundant species-those with similar traits-we argue that avian communities in modern primary Amazonian rainforests are less resilient, which may ultimately disrupt the ecosystem in dynamic and unforeseen ways.

Nine actions to successfully restore tropical agroecosystems

Well-designed approaches to ecological restoration can benefit nature and society. This is particularly the case in tropical agroecosystems, where restoration can provide substantial socioecological benefits at relatively low costs. To successfully restore tropical agroecosystems and maximise benefits, initiatives must begin by considering 'who' should be involved in and benefit from restoration, and 'what', 'where', and 'how' restoration should occur. Based on collective experience of restoring tropical agroecosystems worldwide, we present nine actions to guide future restoration of these systems, supported by case studies that demonstrate our actions being used successfully in practice and highlighting cases where poorly designed restoration has been damaging. We call for increased restoration activity in tropical agroecosystems during the current UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration.

Wilderness forms and their implications for global environmental policy and conservation

With the intention of securing industry-free land and seascapes, protecting wilderness entered international policy as a formal target for the first time in the zero draft of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework under the Convention on Biological Diversity. Given this increased prominence in international policy, it is timely to consider the extent to which the construct of wilderness supports global conservation objectives. We evaluated the construct by overlaying recently updated cumulative human pressure maps that offer a global-scale delineation of industry-free land as wilderness with maps of carbon stock, species richness, and ground travel time from urban centers. Wilderness areas took variable forms in relation to carbon stock, species richness, and proximity to urban centers, where 10% of wilderness areas represented high carbon and species richness, 20% low carbon and species richness, and 3% high levels of remoteness (>48 h), carbon, and species richness. Approximately 35% of all remaining wilderness in 2013 was accessible in <24 h of travel time from urban centers. Although the construct of wilderness can be used to secure benefits in specific contexts, its application in conservation must account for contextual and social implications. The diverse characterization of wilderness under a global environmental conservation lens shows that a nuanced framing and application of the construct is needed to improve understanding, communication, and retention of its variable forms as industry-free places.

Human Activity Intensity and Its Spatial-Temporal Evolution in China’s Border Areas

Monitoring human activities in border areas is challenging due to the complex geographical environment and diverse people. China has the longest terrestrial boundary and the highest number of neighboring countries in the world. In this study, a human activity intensity index (HAI) was proposed based on land cover, population density, and satellite-based nighttime light for a long-term macroscopic study. The HAI was calculated at 1 km resolution within the 50 km buffer zone of China’s land boundary on each side in 1992, 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Results show that human activity is low in about 90% of the study area. Overall, the HAI on the Chinese side is higher than that on the neighboring side, and the intensity of land use on the Chinese side has increased significantly from 1992 to 2020. Among China’s neighbors, India has the highest HAI with the fastest growth. With the changes in the HAI between China and its neighboring countries, four regional evolution patterns are found in the study area: Sino-Russian HAI decline; Sino-Kazakhstan HAI unilateral growth; Indian HAI continuous growth; China and Indochina HAI synchronized growth. Hotspot analysis reveals three spatial evolution patterns, which are unilateral expansion, bilateral expansion, and cross-border fusion. Both the “border effect” and “agglomeration effect” exist in border areas. The HAI changes in border areas not only impact the eco-environment but also affect geopolitics and geoeconomics. The HAI can be used as an instrument for decision-making and cooperation between China and neighboring countries in such areas as ecological protection, border security, and border trade.

Effectiveness of the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve of China in Reducing Human Impacts

The management effectiveness of protected areas plays a key role in biodiversity and ecosystem services conservation. We evaluated the effectiveness of Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve (QMNR) in reducing human footprint (HF). Four dominant human activity factors, including population density, land use, road distribution, and night light, were incorporated for HF mapping. Comparisons of the HF value between inside and outside QMNR and its four functional zones were conducted. The results show that both the HF inside and outside of QMNR were increasing, but the difference between them was increasing, indicating partial management effectiveness. The north part of the central reserve has a good effect in reducing human impacts, while the effectiveness was poor at both ends of the reserve. The HF value of the most strictly managed core and buffer zones increased by 10.50 and 6.68%, respectively, for 2010–2020. The QMNR was effective in controlling population density and land use, but ineffective in reducing road construction, mining, and construction of hydropower facilities.

Species richness response to human pressure hides important assemblage transformations

SignificanceHuman activities are causing biodiversity loss, but there is still strong debate on their effect on species richness. Here, I propose a unification of five trajectories of species richness response to increasing human pressure under the "replace then remove framework." It consists in a first phase of assemblage transformation (with the replacement of "loser" by "winner" species), often followed by a second phase of steep decline in species richness (with the decline of many winner species) when human pressure exceeds a certain threshold. The empirical results presented in this study provide an outstanding illustration of assemblage transformations that may cause biotic homogenization, demonstrating how habitat specialist, endemic, sensitive, and threatened species are replaced by others with increasing human pressure.

A global record of annual terrestrial Human Footprint dataset from 2000 to 2018

Human Footprint, the pressure imposed on the eco-environment by changing ecological processes and natural landscapes, is raising worldwide concerns on biodiversity and ecological conservation. Due to the lack of spatiotemporally consistent datasets of Human Footprint over a long temporal span, many relevant studies on this topic have been limited. Here, we mapped the annual dynamics of the global Human Footprint from 2000 to 2018 using eight variables that reflect different aspects of human pressures. The accuracy assessment revealed a good agreement between our mapped results and the previously developed datasets in different years. We found more than two million km2 of wilderness (i.e., regions with Human Footprint values below one) were lost over the past two decades. The biome dominated by mangroves experienced the most significant loss (i.e., above 5%) of wilderness, likely attributed to intensified human activities in coastal areas. The derived annual and spatiotemporally consistent global Human Footprint can be a fundamental dataset for many relevant studies about human activities and natural resources.