National scale evaluation of the InVEST nutrient retention model in the United Kingdom

Evaluation of an open-source nutrient delivery model for estimating pesticide loads in river catchments

Quantifying pesticide runoff hazard in catchments is necessary to predict the impacts and target mitigation. Achieving this at scale through regular, long-term water quality monitoring at multiple sites is time- and resource-intensive. Ideally, such monitoring should be supplemented by models that can estimate pesticide loads in a quicker, less costly manner, especially for unmonitored catchments. We developed a novel modelling method combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Nutrient Delivery Ratio (InVEST® NDR) model and the UKCEH Land Cover® plus: Pesticides maps to estimate pesticide load across England. The InVEST NDR model is a widely used, open-source pollutant runoff model, but has not yet been evaluated for use with pesticides. We compared our modelled approach with a measurement-based ("measured") approach. This measured approach used pesticide concentration data from the Environment Agency and river flow data using Qube (a water resource estimation tool) for catchments upstream of the sampling sites: 54 for bentazone and 21 for chlorotoluron. The significant positive relationships between measured and modelled pesticide loads were stronger when the measured approach accounted for the proportionate area of arable land cover, presumably because the modelled approach only incorporated pesticides from arable sources, explaining up to 90 % of the variation in relative hazard between catchments. Thus, our modelled method forms a flexible approach to mapping relative pesticide runoff hazard over large spatial extents, especially where monitoring is limited. It could also be used to rapidly prioritise catchments for more complex analysis to produce accurate measures of absolute loads.

Did green infrastructure improve water purification ecosystem services in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration? Evidence from total phosphorus

Non-point source pollution significantly impacts the sustainable development of river ecosystems. Water purification ecosystem services (WPES) play a crucial role in mitigating non-point source pollution. Green infrastructure (GI) maintains ecosystem services; however, how GI affects WPES remains poorly explored. Using total phosphorus (TP), we investigated the mechanisms by which GI and its structure and functions influence WPES in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration. Results show that GI significantly improved WPES, with the lower TP loads (49-fold) and TP export capacity (3-fold) in GI areas compared to non-GI areas. These effects are associated with specific GI attributes, including structural connectivity, vegetation coverage, and soil conservation capability, which exhibit cascading effects (|r| > 0.8). Optimizing GI structural connectivity can indirectly regulate WPES by enhancing GI ecological functions (vegetation coverage and soil conservation), making it a crucial land management strategy. Specifically, the enhancement of vegetation coverage, which is critical for improving WPES (|r| > 0.6), should focus on both the 'scale' and 'health' of the vegetation. Cultivating GI (|r| > 0.6) offers greater benefits for WPES than forests and grasslands alone (|r| < 0.6). Effectively leveraging the relationships between GI attributes and WPES can significantly reduce TP risks.

Quantifying the relative importance of agricultural land use as a predictor of catchment nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations

Agriculture is a major source of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in freshwater ecosystems, and different management strategies exist to reduce farmland nutrient losses and thus mitigate freshwater eutrophication. The importance of agricultural sources of N and P as drivers of water quality is known to vary spatially, but quantification of the relative importance of the nutrient sources shaping this variability remains challenging, especially with reference to inputs from waste water treatment works. Addressing this knowledge gap is key for targeting management strategies to where they are likely to have the greatest effect. To advance our understanding in this area, this study assesses the impact of population density as a driver of the relative importance of agricultural land use for predicting mean Total Oxidised Nitrogen (TON) and Reactive Phosphorus (RP) concentrations in rivers in England, using two different data-driven, statistical approaches: a generalised linear model and random forest. Our results show that agricultural N and P sources dominate in catchments with low population density, where stream water concentrations are lower and waste water treatment works are numerous, but smaller in terms of the population equivalent served. Agricultural N and P sources are not important predictors of N and P in catchments with high population density, where contributions from waste water treatment works dominate. These results require cautious interpretation, as model validation outcomes show that high TON and RP concentrations are consistently underpredicted. Altogether, our results suggest that the relative contribution of agricultural sources may be overestimated in densely populated catchments, relative to point sources from waste water treatment works, and that management strategies to reduce the contribution of agriculture to N and P in rivers may be better targeted towards catchments with lower population density, as this is where agricultural land use is the primary source of N and P.

A framework for validating watershed ecosystem service models in the United States using long-term water quality data: Applications with the InVEST Nutrient Delivery (NDR) model in Puerto Rico

Modeling of watershed Ecosystem Services (ES) processes has increased greatly in recent years, potentially improving environmental management and decision-making by describing the value of nature. ES models may be sensitive to different conditions and, therefore, should ideally be validated against observed data for their use as a decision-support instrument. However, outcomes from such ES modeling are barely validated, making it difficult to assess uncertainties associated with the modeling and justify their actual usefulness to develop generalizable management recommendations. This study proposes a framework for the systematic validation of one of such tools, the InVEST Nutrient Delivery Model (NDR) for nutrient retention estimates. The framework is divided into three stages: 1) running the NDR model inputs, processes, and outputs; 2) building a long-term reference dataset from open access water quality observations; and 3) using the reference data for model calibration and validation. We applied this framework to twenty watersheds in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, where data availability resembles thar of watersheds across the United States. Long-term water quality data from monitoring stations facilitated model calibration and validation. Our framework provided a reproducible method to linking the vast monitoring network in the U.S. and its territories for evaluating the InVEST's NDR model performance. Beyond the framework development, this study found that the InVEST NDR model explained 62.7 % and 79.3 % of the variance in the total nitrogen and total phosphorus between 2000 and 2022, respectively, supporting the suitability of the model for watershed scale ecosystem services assessment. The findings can also serve as a reference to support the use of InVEST for other locations in the tropics without publically available monitoring data.

A multi-index comprehensive evaluation method for assessing the water use balance between economic society and ecology considering efficiency-development-health-harmony

Quantitative assessment of the water use balance between economic society and ecology (EEWB) is the basis for coordinating the competitive relationship of water use between human activity and ecological requirements and. It is of great significance for optimizing the water resources carrying capacity and achieving a healthy regional water balance. Based on the concept of harmonious balance, this paper puts forward the definition and connotation of EEWB regarding the competition in water use between economic society and ecology. And, a novel framework for assessing the EEWB is proposed. It has four aspects relating to water resources, economic society, ecology, and human-water relationship. Linked to these aspects the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique, Water Ecological Footprint (WEF) model, InVEST model and indicators system of human-water relationship are used to establish a water resources efficiency index (IEEWB-W), economic society high-quality development index (IEEWB-ES), ecology health index (IEEWB-E), harmony index of human-water relationship (IEEWB-H). The four indices were then integrated into the water use balance between economic society and ecology index (IEEWB) with Euclidean distance, thus forming the EEWB quantification method system. Finally, the temporal and spatial characteristics of EEWB during 2010-2022 was diagnosed in Henan Province and cities of China. Results reveal that: (1) The water resources utilization efficiency exhibit a changing trend of initial decrease followed by subsequent increase; (2) Southern cities in Henan Province have a higher economic society development level compared to northern cities; (3) IEEWB-E in Henan Province is below 0.60, indicating that the regional ecology health remains consistently vulnerable; (4) IEEWB-H in Henan Province shows an increasing trend, indicating that a gradual improvement and overall upward development in the human-water relationship; (5) IEEWB multi-year average was within [0.53, 0.65] in Henan Province, indicating a state of Proximity imbalance. The low level of ecological health is the primary influencing factor. These findings will contribute to a better understanding of the water use balance between economic society and ecology and provide scientific reference for achieving a healthy regional water balance.

Exposure of water purification deficit network in response to nitrogen application intensity

Ecosystem services are strongly responsive to changes in land use intensity, especially for the service of water purification, which is highly sensitive to water pollutant emission. Increased nitrogen (N) application to cropland has potential impacts on the supply and demand for water purification through changes in land use intensity. However, there has been a lack of research focusing on the impacts of cropland N application on population exposure to water purification deficit and their cross-regional delivery network. Taking the Dongting Lake (DTL) Basin as an example, this study explored the spatial pattern of N exposure in the DTL Basin from 1990 to 2015 by integrating water purification deficit and population density. Changes in potential N exposure in 2050 were simulated based on population projection data from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-5). N delivery pathways in the DTL Basin were clarified by constructing the N delivery network. The results showed that N exposure increased significantly with increasing N application in DTL Basin. The DTL surrounding area and lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River Basin had high increases of N exposure (50.2 % and 71.6 %) and high increases in N exposure due to increases in N application per unit (N influence coefficients exceeding 0.5). The lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River Basin with the highest population density had the smallest decrease in N exposure (1.4 %-11.1 %) in the SSP1-5 scenarios. During 1990-2015, the increase of N export to the DTL surrounding area was higher in the lower reach sub-basins of DTL Basin. N application had a stronger impact on N delivery processes in the lower reaches of DTL Basin. Managers should distribute N applications to basins with high N retention and low N export to the DTL surrounding area. This study confirmed the strong response of water purification deficit and its population exposure to N application, and provided decision-making guidelines for water quality enhancement in DTL Basin from a spatial planning perspective.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Climate-altered Precipitation is more Important than Land Use when Modeling Ecosystem Services Associated with Surficial Processes

Ecosystem services (ESs) associated with surficial processes may change according to shifts in land use, land cover, and climate parameters. Estimating these shifts can be important for land development planning, as urbanization alters soil processes that can manifest legacy effects. We employed the InVEST suite of models for sediment retention, nutrient delivery, and carbon storage to postulate how these ESs will change in the Upstate of South Carolina under future precipitation and land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios. We used the average precipitation from 1981-2010 and WorldClim precipitation projections for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 to embody climatic precipitation shifts. For our LULC scenarios, we used 2011 and 2016 NLCD landscapes, then projected future LULC to hypothesize four future scenarios. We found that for the ES models that included both precipitation and LULC as inputs, precipitation dictated ES delivery far more heavily than land use or land cover. LULC scenarios produced consistent changes in ES delivery for all models except sediment export. Phosphorus and sediment exports increased between 2011 and 2016 due to LULC change, while nitrogen export stayed the same and carbon storage decreased. Land development that prioritizes forest cover will cause the least change in ESs, but allowing for continued forest loss to low-density development will have the most intense implications for ESs. Prioritization of land uses that preserve ESs associated with surficial processes will be critical to the longevity of agriculture and ecosystem integrity in this rapidly developing region. Land development planners should integrate consideration of ESs associated with surficial processes into future regional planning.

Future carbon storages of ecosystem based on land use change and carbon sequestration practices in a large economic belt

Assessments of ecosystem carbon storage are needed to form the scientific basis for carbon policies. Due to lack of data, there are few accurate, large-scale, and long-term predictions of ecosystem carbon storage. This study used the Distributed Land-Use Change Prediction (DLUCP) model with ten socioeconomic and two climate change scenarios for a total of 20 combinations that take into account population increase, technology innovation, climate change, and Grain for Green Project to make high-resolution predictions of land use change in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Low and high carbon sequestration practices were considered to predict future carbon densities. Land use change data, carbon densities data, and the InVEST model were used to predict changes in ecosystem carbon storage from now to 2070. The results show a slight increase (1.88-4.17%) in carbon storage in the study area only based on land use change. Grain for Green Project has the largest impact on carbon storage among population increase, technology innovation, climate scenarios, and Grain for Green Project, which increases carbon storage by 4.17%. After the implementation of carbon sequestration practices, there is an increase in carbon storages from 28.51 to 56.77% in the study area from now to 2070, and increasing carbon storages of forest in each stream and carbon storage of cropland in downstream are efficient ways to achieve carbon neutralization.

Attribution and driving force of nitrogen losses from the Taihu Lake Basin by the InVEST and GeoDetector models

Quantifying temporal and spatial changes in reactive nitrogen (Nr) losses from a watershed and exploring its main drivers are the key to watershed water quality improvements. Huge Nr losses continue to threaten the safety of the water environment in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB). Here, the InVEST and GeoDetector models were combined to estimate Nr losses in the TLB from 1990 to 2020 and explore driving forces. Different scenarios for Nr losses were compared, showing that Nr loss peaked at 181.66 × 10³ t in 2000. The key factors affecting Nr loss are land use, followed by elevation, soil, and slope factors, and their mean q-values were 0.82, 0.52, 0.51, and 0.48, respectively. The scenario analysis revealed that Nr losses increased under the business-as-usual and economic development scenarios, while ecological conservation, increased nutrient use efficiency, and reduced nutrient application all contribute to a reduction in Nr losses. The findings provide a scientific reference for Nr loss control and future planning in the TLB.

Model ensembles of ecosystem services fill global certainty and capacity gaps

Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human well-being is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models ("the capacity gap") or knowledge of the accuracy of available models ("the certainty gap"), especially in the world's poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2 to 14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity, indicating that accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide globally consistent ES information that can support policy and decision-making in regions with low data availability or low capacity for implementing complex ES models. Thus, we hope to reduce the capacity and certainty gaps impeding local- to global-scale movement toward ES sustainability.

Mapping the planet's critical natural assets

Sustaining the organisms, ecosystems and processes that underpin human wellbeing is necessary to achieve sustainable development. Here we define critical natural assets as the natural and semi-natural ecosystems that provide 90% of the total current magnitude of 14 types of nature's contributions to people (NCP), and we map the global locations of these critical natural assets at 2 km resolution. Critical natural assets for maintaining local-scale NCP (12 of the 14 NCP) account for 30% of total global land area and 24% of national territorial waters, while 44% of land area is required to also maintain two global-scale NCP (carbon storage and moisture recycling). These areas overlap substantially with cultural diversity (areas containing 96% of global languages) and biodiversity (covering area requirements for 73% of birds and 66% of mammals). At least 87% of the world's population live in the areas benefitting from critical natural assets for local-scale NCP, while only 16% live on the lands containing these assets. Many of the NCP mapped here are left out of international agreements focused on conserving species or mitigating climate change, yet this analysis shows that explicitly prioritizing critical natural assets and the NCP they provide could simultaneously advance development, climate and conservation goals.

Impacts of urbanization at city cluster scale on ecosystem services along an urban-rural gradient: a case study of Central Yunnan City Cluster, China

Urban agglomeration will be the main mode of future urbanization in China, greatly influencing social and economic development and ecosystem protection at the whole city cluster scale. It is important to analyze the impacts of large-scale, scattered land use and cover change (LUCC) consisting of one-pole-multi-point urbanization in city clusters on regional ecosystem services (ESs), so as to increase ecological security and maintain ES levels. Using the urban-rural gradient analysis method (UGAM), this study examined driver-response mechanisms of large-scale, scattered agglomeration urbanization on ESs along an urban-rural gradient and at a regional scale. This was done by simulating and analyzing tempo-spatial variations in ES characteristics along concentric ring gradients in the Central Yunnan City Cluster (CYCC) under its present urbanization path. The results showed that rapid urban sprawl is the main driver affecting the integral value of ESs in CYCC and that ES trade-offs (through LUCC caused by urbanization) between adjacent zones along the urban-rural gradient will particularly exacerbate the degradation of integral ES levels. Hence, CYCC should follow a sustainable, eco-friendly urbanization path and consider ecological principles and the impact of LUCC on regional ESs along the urban-rural gradient in top-level design and decision-making on urban planning and strategic land use management. Differentiated regional development policies should be formulated for each area, the urban-rural development pattern and layout optimized, the scale of construction land rationally controlled, and the overall efficiency of land use improved. Ecological buffers should be set up around areas with sharp and obvious changes in land use, to alleviate the negative impact of large-scale, decentralized city cluster urbanization on regional ESs.

Measuring changes in financial and ecosystems service outcomes with simulated grassland restoration in a Corn Belt watershed

While provisioning ecosystem services generated through agricultural production are high, this often comes at the expense of other ecosystem services. Approaches that support both farm income and a balanced array of ecosystem services are needed. We employed a landscape modeling approach to demonstrate the financial and ecosystem service outcomes of strategically restoring grassland cover within a Corn Belt agricultural watershed. We assessed potential changes associated with a “Baseline” land use scenario and two alternative scenarios for the Grand River Basin (Iowa and Missouri, USA). In a “Buffered” scenario we simulated the impacts of replacing cropland within 20 m of streams with restored native grassland cover. In a “Productivity-based” scenario we simulated the replacement of annual row crops on poorly performing croplands with native grassland cover. Grasslands comprised 0.4% of the Baseline scenario. Grassland was expanded to 0.8% of the watershed in the Buffered scenario, reducing annual nutrient and sediment loss by 1.44%, increasing soil carbon sequestration by 0.12% over 10 years, and increasing pollinator abundance by 0.01%. The estimated annual value of these enhancements was $1.7 million for nitrogen reduction, $0.1 million for phosphorus reduction, $0.5 million for sediment reduction, and $1.3 million for soil carbon sequestration. Grassland comprised 4.9% of the watershed in the Productivity-based scenario, reduced annual nutrient and sediment loss by 11.50%, increased soil carbon sequestration by 1.13% over 10 years, and increased pollinator abundance by 0.42%. The estimated annual value of enhancements was $18 million for nitrogen reduction, $1.4 million for phosphorus reduction, $2.5 million for sediment reduction, and $14 million for soil carbon sequestration. We also calculated the value of grassland biomass for a potential energy market. The benefit of producing and selling grassland biomass ranged -$445 to $1,291 ha−1 yr−1. Scaled to the watershed, annual revenues ranged -$7.3 million to $21.1 million for the Buffered scenario and -$44.2 million to $128.8 million for the Productivity-based scenario. This study was the first to quantify changes in revenue and the value of ecosystem services associated with grassland restoration in the Grand River Basin and can help inform discussion among watershed stakeholders.

Evaluation of InVEST’s Water Ecosystem Service Models in a Brazilian Subtropical Basin

The biophysical modeling of water ecosystem services is crucial to understanding their availability, vulnerabilities, and fluxes. Among the most popular models, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models stand out. While many studies have used them, few have assessed their performance. This study evaluates the performance of InVEST’s Seasonal Water Yield, Nutrient Delivery Ratio, and Sediment Delivery Ratio models in a subtropical basin in southeastern Brazil on temporal and spatial scales, using 39 years of streamflow data, 29 for total phosphorus and total nitrogen, and 19 for total suspended solids. Statistical indicators R2, PBIAS, and NSE, were also calculated. The performance of the models varied according to the type of simulated WES and analysis scales used, with the Seasonal Water Yield model demonstrating the best performance and effectively representing the spatial and temporal variability of the average annual streamflow. All models performed well in simulating long-term mean values when compared to observed data. While one should bear in mind the study’s limitations, the results indicate that the models perform well in terms of relative magnitude, although their application in studies involving water-resource management and decision making is limited.

Identifying Spatial Patterns and Ecosystem Service Delivery of Nature-Based Solutions

Compared to technical infrastructure, nature-based solutions, NBS, strive to work with nature and to move beyond business-as-usual practices in order to address societal challenges such as flood risks. This research aims to spatially identify possible NBS areas and evaluate the areas capacity to provide selected ecosystem services, ES, for the Lahn river landscape in Germany. The research follows the functional landscape approach using hydromorphological landscape units, HLU, based on specific biophysical spatial criteria, such as slope, to then identify locations which may be considered suitable for NBS. The current ES delivery of these possible NBS areas is then evaluated. The three ES assessed are carbon storage, nutrient retention and recreation. We then undertake a geospatial comparison analysis to show the spatial relationships and patterns that emerge in regards to the ES configuration of the distinct NBS apt areas. Results show the HLU method serves to delineate and identify areas where NBS may exist or be implemented. The data depicts a distinct spatial pattern for each possible NBS space and complementary ES delivery. This explorative method is a useful spatial approach that can support NBS implementation and serve to investigate the multiple benefits NBS provide. The use of ecosystem services to compare and understand NBS is a viable prospect that must, however, be cautiously, locally and scientifically approached. Noticeable limitations regarding ES assessment remain, as available methods are often insufficiently inclusive of natural ecosystem processes and functions. Further research should assess a broader spectrum of NBS and their delivery of ES.

Analysis of Effects of Sponge City Projects Applying the Geodesign Framework

This study aims is to verify the effects of sponge city projects focusing on the aspect of water pollutant control and urban flood control, applying the geodesign framework as an integrated planning method that can evaluate alternatives against the impacts of the designs. The study analyzed the effects of sponge city projects in Harbin, Quzhou, and Sanya, China. Three LULC scenarios are proposed based on the geodesign framework, and the spatial distribution and quantitative values are simulated by the InVEST NDR model and urban flood model study. By comparing different scenarios, the study proved the current sponge project could improve the water pollutant control capability by 11–18% and the stormwater control capability by 0.4–6.3%. If the city-wide green infrastructure network is introduced with sponge projects, the water pollutant control capability can increase by 9–15% and the stormwater control capability can increase by 0.8–2.9%. These results show that the current sponge projects can improve the city’s sustainability and be helpful strategies to fight climate change and global warming.

Classification of Geomorphic Units and Their Relevance for Nutrient Retention or Export of a Large Lowland Padma River, Bangladesh: A NDVI Based Approach

Geomorphic classification of large rivers identifies morphological patterns, as a foundation for estimating biogeochemical and ecological processes. In order to support the modelling of in-channel nutrient retention or export, the classification of geomorphic units (GUs) was done in the Padma River, Bangladesh, a large and geomorphically-complex lowland river. GUs were classified using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) four times over a year, so as to cover the seasonal variation of water flows. GUs were categorized as primary and secondary channels (C & S); longitudinal bar (L); transverse bar (T); side bar (SB); unvegetated bank (EK); dry channel (ED); island (VI); and water depression (WD). All types of GUs were observed over the four distinct annual seasons, except ED, which was absent during the high flow, monsoon season. Seasonal variation of the surface area of GUs and discharge showed an inverse relation between discharge and exposed surface areas of VI, L, T, and SB. Nutrients mainly enter the river system through water and sediments, and during monsoon, the maximum portion of emergent GUs were submerged. Based on the assumption that nutrient retention is enhanced in the seasonally inundated portions of GUs, nutrient retention-/export-relevant geomorphic units (NREGUs) were identified. Seasonal variation in the area of NREGUs was similar to that of GUs. The mean NDVI values of the main identified NREGUs were different. The variation of NDVI values among seasons in these NREGUs resulted from changes of vegetation cover and type. The variation also occurred due to alteration of the surface area of GUs in different seasons. The changes of vegetation cover indicated by NDVI values across seasons are likely important drivers for biogeochemical and ecological processes.

Simulation of Spatial Service Range and Value of Carbon Sink Based on Intelligent Urban Ecosystem Management System and Net Present Value Models—An Example from the Qinling Mountains

Under the current background of carbon neutrality, the quantification of carbon neutrality in Qinling Mountains, the calculation of the spatial service scope, and the estimation of economic value are of great significance for the improvement of carbon neutrality spatial planning and the carbon trading market. The Intelligent Urban Ecosystem Management System (IUEMS) was used to calculate the carbon sequestration of the Qinling Mountains. The carbon emission of Qinling Mountains was spatialized through model fitting, using the night light data and energy consumption data of various cities. The static carbon content of the Qinling Mountains was obtained. Combined with the common gas diffusion coefficient, under normal temperature and pressure, the service range of the Qinling Mountains’ carbon neutralization to the surrounding area was calculated. The spatial distribution of carbon sequestration in 2030 and 2050 was simulated using Patch generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and Net Present Value (NPV) model. Under two discount rates, the model could calculate the carbon value in 2012, 2016, 2020, 2030, and 2050, respectively. The results proved that the value of carbon in the Qinling Mountains is gradually increasing. Since 2012, the service range of carbon neutralization in the Qinling Mountains was 175–262.63 km, and the service range has been gradually expanded. The discount rate is inversely proportional to the carbon value.

Quantifying impacts of climate dynamics and land-use changes on water yield service in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China

Large-scale revegetation practices have lasted approximately two decades in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China (AENC), and their impacts on hydrological and ecological effects remain poorly understood. Previous studies largely focused on assessing water yield service (WYs) based on several fixed time points, whereas time series information-continuous WYs dynamics were more reliable and valuable in decision-making about water sustainability goals. This study analyzed the interannual WYs trend and relative roles of its drivers in the last 20 years based on a newly proposed approach, and revealed the past, present and future impacts of revegetation on WYs. The final results indicated that the annual WYs averaged approximately 97 mm and exhibited an increasing trend of 1.96 mm year^-1 (p = 0.086) during 2000-2019, in which climate and land-use changes were responsible for 88% and 12% of WYs variations, respectively. From 2000 to 2019, WYs was pronouncedly 1.47 mm year^-1 (p = 0.119) lower in the afforestation area than in the nonafforestation area, but the precipitation in the two regions had a statistically insignificant difference (p = 0.97). Future revegetation scenarios showed great potential for the shrinkage of WYs provision, even approaching a maximum of 50 mm at a local scale. Even so, the afforestation-induced reductions in blue water and benefits in green water both should receive equal attention. Specifically, any attempts to assess WYs or other climate-driven ecosystem services using discontinuous years as the study period must be taken with extreme caution.

Improving ecosystem services supply provides insights for sustainable landscape planning: A case study in Beijing, China

Promoting land use planning through ecosystem service (ES) protection is a crucial approach for maintaining landscape sustainability. Identifying ES bundles to serve landscape functional zoning can provide a new perspective for sustainable land use planning. Taking the Beijing metropolitan region as a study area, we quantitatively assessed the spatiotemporal distributions of multiple ESs, from 1980 to 2017, based on land use changes. By combining ES patterns and comprehensive ecosystem service (CES), distinct ES bundles were identified through the clustering method. Based on the ES bundles, landscape functional zones were then established. We further developed improved land use scenarios to conserve ESs in selected towns of different functional zones by exploring dominant factors influencing ESs. Results showed that most of ESs decreased due to the expansion of developed lands. According to the classification of ES bundles, Beijing can be classified into three landscape functional zones at town level: the ecological conservation region (ECR), food production region (FPR), and urban development region (UDR). For each landscape functional zone, the town with the greatest decline in CES value was selected. Associated with the influencing factors of ESs, local land use patterns, and ecological protection policies, corresponding multi-step improved land use scenarios were designed. These scenarios were demonstrated to be effective in conserving ESs in the selected towns: (1) the agricultural expansion scenario, which enhanced food provision services in the ECR; (2) the forest conservation scenario, which enhanced habitat and recreational services in the FPR; and (3) the developed land optimization scenario, which enhanced a range of regulating services in the UDR. Overall, this study used landscape functional zoning as a nexus to connect ES patterns and land use management. The optimized land use strategies can provide references for conserving ESs and enhancing landscape sustainability in Beijing and other similar metropolitan areas worldwide.

Suitable Land-Use and Land-Cover Allocation Scenarios to Minimize Sediment and Nutrient Loads into Kwan Phayao, Upper Ing Watershed, Thailand

Human activity and land-use changes have affected the water quality of Kwan Phayao, Upper Ing watershed, due to the associated high sediment load and eutrophication. This study aims to identify suitable LULC allocation scenarios for minimizing sediment and nutrient export into the lake. For this purpose, the LULC status and change were first assessed, based on classified LULC data in 2009 and 2019 from Landsat images, using the SVM algorithm. Later, the land requirements of three scenarios between 2020 and 2029 were estimated, based on their characteristics, and applied to predict LULC change using the CLUE-S model. Then, actual LULC data in 2019 and predicted LULC data under three scenarios between 2020 and 2029 were used to estimate sediment and nutrient export using the SDR and NDR models. Finally, the ecosystem service change index identified a suitable LULC allocation for minimizing sediment or/and nutrient export. According to the results, LULC status and change indicated perennial trees and orchards, para rubber, and rangeland increased, while forest land and paddy fields decreased. The land requirements of the three scenarios provided reasonable results, as expected, particularly Scenario II, which adopts linear programming to calculate the land requirements for maximizing ecosystem service values. For sediment and nutrient export estimation under the predicted LULC for the three scenarios, Scenario II led to the lowest yield of sediment and nutrient exports, and provided the lowest average ESCI value among the three scenarios. Thus, the LULC allocation under Scenario II was chosen as suitable for minimizing sediment or/and nutrient export into Kwan Phayao. These results can serve as crucial information to minimize sediment and nutrient loads for land-use planners, land managers, and decision makers.

Assessing the effects of different land-use/land-cover input datasets on modelling and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services - Case study Terceira Island (Azores, Portugal)

Modelling ecosystem services (ES) has become a new standard for the quantification and assessment of various ES. Multiple ES model applications are available that spatially estimate ES supply on the basis of land-use/land-cover (LULC) input data. This paper assesses how different input LULC datasets affect the modelling and mapping of ES supply for a case study on Terceira Island, the Azores (Portugal), namely: (1) the EU-wide CORINE LULC, (2) the Azores Region official LULC map (COS.A 2018) and (3) a remote sensing-based LULC and vegetation map of Terceira Island using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. The InVEST model suite was applied, modelling altogether six ES (Recreation/Visitation, Pollination, Carbon Storage, Nutrient Delivery Ratio, Sediment Delivery Ratio and Seasonal Water Yield). Model outcomes of the three LULC datasets were compared in terms of similarity, performance and applicability for the user. For some InVEST modules, such as Pollination and Recreation, the differences in the LULC datasets had limited influence on the model results. For InVEST modules, based on more complex calculations and processes, such as Nutrient Delivery Ratio, the output ES maps showed a skewed distribution of ES supply. Yet, model results showed significant differences for differences in all modules and all LULCs. Understanding how differences arise between the LULC input datasets and the respective effect on model results is imperative when computing model-based ES maps. The choice for selecting appropriate LULC data should depend on: 1) the research or policy/decision-making question guiding the modelling study, 2) the ecosystems to be mapped, but also on 3) the spatial resolution of the mapping and 4) data availability at the local level. Communication and transparency on model input data are needed, especially if ES maps are used for supporting land use planning and decision-making.

Impacts of landscape patterns on water-related ecosystem services under natural restoration in Liaohe River Reserve, China

Understanding changes in ecosystem services and their drivers is important for effective riparian ecosystem conservation and restoration. In the study, changes in water-related ecosystem services (soil conservation, water purification, and water yield) from 2007 to 2015 in Liaohe River Reserve, China were analyzed using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model. Impacts of landscape patterns on ecosystem services for different stages of restoration, i.e., farmland abandonment and natural succession stages were determined by stepwise regression analysis, respectively. The results showed that landscape fragmentation, landscape diversity, farmland fragmentation and grassland aggregation increased at the farmland abandonment stage. Landscape aggregation and diversity increased, whereas farmland fragmentation and grassland fragmentation decreased at the natural succession stage. Water-related ecosystem services improved since farmland abandonment, but water yield decreased from 1.57 × 10⁶ m³ to 1.47 × 10⁶ m³ at natural succession stage from 2011 to 2015. Water yield dynamics both at farmland abandonment and natural restoration stages were not significantly associated with landscape metrics. Dynamics of soil retention and water purification services at the farmland abandonment stage were significantly affected by landscape patch numbers, farmland division, and grassland aggregation. Interspersion and juxtaposition between different patch types, farmland edge density, grassland division, and grassland aggregation played significant roles in the dynamics of soil retention and water purification services at the natural restoration stage. The results provide scientific guidance for riparian management at the landscape scale to better restore water-related ecosystem services.

Ecosystem Services Evaluation of Nature-Based Solutions with the Help of Citizen Scientists

Ecosystem services are increasingly being considered in decision-making with respect to mitigating future climate impacts. In this respect, there is a clear need to identify how nature-based solutions (NBS) can benefit specific ecosystem services, in particular within the complex spatial and temporal dynamics that characterize most river catchments. To capture these changes, ecosystem models require spatially explicit data that are often difficult to obtain for model development and validation. Citizen science allows for the participation of trained citizen volunteers in research or regulatory activities, resulting in increased data collection and increased participation of the general public in resource management. Despite the increasing experience in citizen science, these approaches have seldom been used in the modeling of provisioning ecosystem services. In the present study, we examined the temporal and spatial drivers in nutrient delivery in a major Italian river catchment and under different NBS scenarios. Information on climate, land use, soil and river conditions, as well as future climate scenarios, were used to explore future (2050) benefits of NBS on local and catchment scale nutrient loads and nutrient export. We estimate the benefits of a reduction in nitrogen and phosphorus export to the river and the receiving waters (Adriatic Sea) with respect to the costs associated with individual and combined NBS approaches related to river restoration and catchment reforestation.

Assessment of Future Water Yield and Water Purification Services in Data Scarce Region of Northwest China

Water shortage and pollution have become prominent in the arid regions of northwest China, seriously affecting human survival and sustainable development. The Bosten Lake basin has been considered as an example of an arid region in northwest China, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model has been used to quantitatively evaluate the future water yield and water purification services for four representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. The results show that for the four RCP scenarios, the annual average precipitation in 2020–2050 decreases compared to that in 1985–2015; the area of cultivated land and unused land decreases, and the area of other land-use types increases from 2015 to 2050. The water yield service reduces, while the water purification service increases from 2015 to 2050 in the Bosten Lake basin. In 2050, the water yield and water purification services are the best for the RCP6.0 scenario, and are the worse for the RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The distribution of the water yield and water purification services show a gradual decline from northwest to southeast.

Linking Ecosystem Service Supply–Demand Risks and Regional Spatial Management in the Yihe River Basin, Central China

The continuous supply of ecosystem services is the foundation of the sustainable development of human society. The identification of the supply–demand relationships and risks of ecosystem services is of considerable importance to the management of regional ecosystems and the effective allocation of resources. This paper took the Yihe River Basin as the research area and selected water yield, carbon sequestration, food production, and soil conservation to assess changes in the supply and demand of ecosystem services and their matching status from 2000 to 2018. Risk identification and management zoning were also conducted. Results show the following: (1) The spatial distribution of the four ecosystems service supply and demand in the Yihe River Basin was mismatched. The food production supply levels in the middle and lower reaches and the upstream water yield, carbon sequestration, and soil conservation supply levels were high. However, most of the areas with high demand for ecosystem services were concentrated downstream. (2) From 2000 to 2018, the supply of water yield and carbon sequestration in the Yihe River Basin decreased, while that of food production and soil conservation increased. The demand for the four ecosystem services also increased. (3) Water yield faced considerable supply–demand risks. Fifty percent of the sub-basins were at a high-risk level, and the risk areas were concentrated in the middle and lower reaches. The three remaining services were mainly at low-risk levels. The Yihe River Basin was divided into eight types of supply–demand risk spatial management zones based on the ecosystem service supply and demand levels, which will help promote refined regional ecosystem management and sustainable development. The supply and demand assessment of ecosystem services from a risk perspective can integrate the information of natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems and provide scientific support for watershed spatial management.

Refined water security assessment for sustainable water management: A case study of 15 key cities in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Water security represents ecological security and a policy priority for sustainable development; however, un-gridded assessment results cannot be used to support urban environmental management decisions. This study proposes a systematic framework to obtain a gridded regional water security assessment, which reflects the regional natural resource, based on the index system derived from the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The results were applied to sustainable water management. Using 15 key cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region as a case study to apply the methodology, we found that the comprehensive water security was relatively high and high-value areas were widely distributed, accounting for about two-thirds of the study area. Low-value areas were mainly distributed in central and eastern regions, such as Shanghai, Suzhou, and Nanjing. There was evidence of a water resource shortage during the twelve-month period studied, particularly in August. The proportions of comprehensive water security in each administrative unit and the differences between simulated and target water quality could be used in the spatial planning and the exploration of payments for ecosystem services (PES) mechanism in county-level or smaller administrative units. Despite the premise requirement and the grid resolution problems of the InVEST model, it can be concluded that our assessment method proves capable of matching spatial and temporal differences in water supply and demand at a fine scale, and results can be used to supply useful information for urban management decision making.

Are microplastics destabilizing the global network of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem services?

Plastic has created a new man-made ecosystem called plastisphere. The plastic pieces including microplastics (MPs) and nanoplastics (NPs) have emerged as a global concern due to their omnipresence in ecosystems and their ability to interact with the biological systems. Nevertheless, the long-term impacts of MPs on biotic and abiotic resources are not completely understood, and existing evidence suggests that MPs are hazardous to various keystones species of the global biomes. MP-contaminated ecosystems show reduced floral and faunal biomass, productivity, nitrogen cycling, oxygen-generation and carbon sequestration, suggesting that MPs have already started affecting ecological biomes. However, not much is known about the influence of MPs towards the ecosystem services (ESs) cascade and its correlation with the biodiversity loss. MPs are perceived as a menace to the global ecosystems, but their possible impacts on the provisional, regulatory, and socio-economic ESs have not been extensively studied. This review investigates not only the potentiality of MPs to perturb the functioning of terrestrial and aquatic biomes, but also the associated social, ecological and economic repercussions. The possible long-term fluxes in the ES network of terrestrial and aquatic niches are also discussed.

Can Habitat Quality Index Measured Using the InVEST Model Explain Variations in Bird Diversity in an Urban Area?

Biodiversity maintenance is a crucial ecosystem service. Due to time limits and data availability, assessing biodiversity using indicators or models has become a hot topic in recent decades. However, whether some proposed indicators can explain biodiversity well at the local scale is still unclear. This study attempted to test whether the habitat quality index (HQI) as measured using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model could explain variations in bird diversity in New Jiangwan Town, a rapidly urbanized region of Shanghai, China. The relationships from 2002 to 2013 among HQI and the two diversity indices, species richness and species abundance, were analyzed using Fisher’s exact test and gray correlation analysis. No significant association was found. Habitat connectivity was then integrated to develop a new combined indicator of habitat quality and connectivity index (HQCI). The associations between HQCI and the two diversity indices were improved significantly. The results indicated that connectivity may be an important factor explaining the diversity of certain species at a local scale. More empirical studies should be conducted to provide scientific evidence relating habitat quality to biodiversity.

Impacts of Urban Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Services in Dianchi Lake Basin, China

Land use change is widely regarded as a key factor altering the structure and function of ecosystems. Urbanization is a particular driver and influence in land use change and is expanding globally, especially in developing countries like China. The InVEST model was employed in this study to comprehensively assess the temporal-spatial impacts of urban land use changes (ULUC) on ecosystem services (ESs) and clarify the tradeoffs between urbanization and ecosystem services provision (ESP) in Dianchi Lake Basin (DLB), China, during 1995–2015. The results showed that DLB’s constructed land, particularly in lakeside areas, has increased substantially because of rapid urbanization (built-up area increase 51%, urbanization rate increase 91%), at the expense of agriculture, grassland, and scrubland, greatly altering ESP. Compared with 1995, carbon storage in 2015 decreased, while soil retention and nitrogen exports only fluctuated slightly. Although water yield increased, the ecological water volume of the whole DLB decreased through an increase in regional surface runoff. This resulted in more pollutants being carried into Dianchi Lake, impairing water quality and causing serious ecological and environmental issues. Thus, this study provides empirical evidence of the significant influence of ULUC on ESP. For eco-friendly urbanization in DLB and similar areas with rapid urbanization, a sustainable pattern of urbanization should be followed. The best tradeoffs between urbanization and ESP should be identified and considered in decision-making relating to urban planning, land use management, optimal natural resources management, and ecological conservation.

The direct and interactive impacts of hydrological factors on bacillary dysentery across different geographical regions in central China

Previous studies found non-linear mutual interactions among hydrometeorological factors on diarrheal disease. However, the complex interactions of the hydrometeorological, topographical and human activity factors need to be further explored. This study aimed to reveal how hydrological and other factors jointly influence bacillary dysentery in different geographical regions. Using Anhui Province in China, consisted of Huaibei plain, Jianghuai hilly and Wannan mountainous regions, we integrated multi-source data (6 meteorological, 3 hydrological, 2 topographic, and 9 socioeconomic variables) to explore the direct and interactive relationship between hydrological factors (quick flow, baseflow and local recharge) and other factors by combining the ecosystem model InVEST with spatial statistical analysis. The results showed hydrological factors had significant impact powers (q = 0.444 (Huaibei plain) for local recharge, 0.412 (Jianghuai hilly region) and 0.891 (Wannan mountainous region) for quick flow, respectively) on bacillary dysentery in different regions, but lost powers at provincial level. Land use and soil properties have created significant interactions with hydrological factors across Anhui province. Particularly, percentage of farmland in Anhui province can influence quick flow across Jianghuai, Wannan regions and the whole province, and it also has significant interactions with the baseflow and local recharge across the plain as well as the whole province. Percentage of urban areas had interactions with baseflow and local recharge in Jianghuai and Wannan regions. Additionally, baseflow and local recharge could be interacted with meteorological factors (e.g. temperature and wind speed), while these interactions varied in different regions. In conclusion, it was evident that hydrological factors had significant impacts on bacillary dysentery, and also interacted significantly with meteorological and socioeconomic factors. This study applying ecosystem model and spatial analysis help reveal the complex and nonlinear transmission of bacillary dysentery in different geographical regions, supporting the development of precise public health interventions with consideration of hydrological factors.

Considering the Environmental Impacts of Bioenergy Technologies to Support German Energy Transition

Clean energy for all, as listed in the United Nation’s SDG7, is a key component for sustainable environmental development. Therefore, it is imperative to uncover the environmental implications of alternative energy technologies. SustainableGAS project simulates different process chains for the substitution of natural gas with renewable energies in the German gas market. The project follows an interdisciplinary approach, taking into account techno-social and environmental variabilities. However, this research highlights the project results from the environmental perspective. So far, a detailed assessment of the environmental costs of alternative gas technologies with a focus on the process of energy transition has remained rare. Although such data constitute key inputs for decision-making, this study helps to bridge a substantial knowledge gap. Competing land-use systems are examined to secure central ecosystem services. To fulfill this obligation, an Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) serves as the modelling tool. InVEST assesses ecosystem services (ES) that are or may be affected by alternative bioenergy technologies. Spatially explicit model results include the water provisioning from the Water Yield Model (WYM), soil erosion and sedimentation described by the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR), and nutrient fluxes (N) in response to changing land use are obtained through the Nutrient Delivery Ratio (NDR). The detailed model results are finally extrapolated, which provides a comprehensive image of the environmental impacts associated with bioenergy expansion in Germany from our combination of unique Renewable Gas Plants (RGPs). The final result shows that nutrient load will reduce in southern Germany by the year 2050 compared to the reference state, and biomass use reduced by 46% crops.

Ecological restoration of agricultural land can improve its contribution to economic development

Given the negative environmental impacts of intensive agriculture, there is an urgent need to reduce the impact of food production on biodiversity. Ecological restoration of farmland could potentially contribute to this goal. While the positive impacts of ecological restoration on biodiversity are well established, less evidence is available regarding impacts on economic development and employment. Potentially, prospects for economic development could be enhanced by ecological restoration though increased provision of ecosystem services, on which some economic activity depends. Here we examined this issue through the development of contrasting land use scenarios for the county of Dorset, southern England. Two scenarios of future agricultural expansion were compared with two scenarios of landscape-scale ecological restoration and the current situation. Impacts on provision of multiple ecosystem services (ES) were explored using InVEST models and proxy values for different land cover types. Impacts on economic employment were examined using an economic input-output model, which was adjusted for variation in ES flows using empirically determined ES dependency values for different economic sectors. Using the unadjusted input-output model, the scenarios had only a slight economic impact (≤ 0.3% Gross Value Added, GVA). Conversely, when the input-output model was adjusted to take account of ES flows, GVA increased by up to 5.4% in the restoration scenarios, whereas under the scenario with greatest agricultural expansion, GVA was reduced by -4.5%. Similarly, employment increased by up to 6.7% following restoration, compared to declines of up to -5.6% following maximum agricultural expansion. These results show that the economic contribution of rural land is far greater than that attributable to agricultural production alone. Landscape-scale restoration of agricultural land can potentially increase the contribution of farmland to economic development and employment, by increasing flows of multiple ES to the many economic sectors that depend on them.

Research on ecosystem services of water conservation and soil retention: a bibliometric analysis

Water conservation and soil retention are two essential regulating services that are closely related, and their relationship might produce synergies or trade-offs. Distinguishing the current status and evolution of research in this field could provide a scientific foundation for subsequent research. "Water conservation" and "soil retention" were selected as keywords for a search of Web of Science for publications during 1976-2018. A total of 4489 periodical articles were obtained. Using bibliometric and social network analysis tools, the scientific output performance, national research contributions, potential hot topics, and connections between keywords and the levels of cooperation between countries at different stages were explored to reveal the related development trends. The results showed that the literature on water conservation and soil retention increased rapidly, especially after 2008. The USA, China, and India were the most productive countries, and the USA, the UK, and Canada were the most influential countries regarding international cooperation. Agriculture, water resource utilization, water-soil erosion, and ecosystem services were closely related topics, and the connections between these topics have increased since 1998. In addition to sustainability, the response of water conservation and soil retention to global environmental change, such as water resource management, land use, and land conservation, are potential emerging research hotspots.

Ecosystem service potential, flow, demand and their spatial associations: a comparison of the nutrient retention service between a human- and a nature-dominated watershed

Nutrient regulation is an important ecosystem regulating service in watersheds. However, systematic investigations of the spatial associations between the potential, flow, and demand of the nutrient regulation service are still lacking. Therefore, we performed a case study comparing the total phosphorus (TP) retention in the Dianchi Lake (DL) watershed (human-dominated) with that in the Lower Reach of the Zi River (LRZR) watershed (nature-dominated). We used four indicators-TP retention potential, TP retention, TP load, and TP export-to represent the potential, flow, demand, and flow-demand budget of the TP retention service, respectively. We estimated the TP retention and export using the InVEST tool, mapped the four TP indicators and calculated their correlations, and estimated the contributions of different ecosystem types and terrain ranges to TP retention and export. We determined the following: (1) the incongruity between the spatial distribution of the TP retention potential and the other three TP indicators was smaller in the LRZR watershed than in the DL watershed; (2) the TP retention potentials generally increased-while the other three TP indicators decreased-with increases in the elevation gradient in the DL watershed and the slope gradients in both study areas; and (3) paddy fields exhibited the highest TP retention intensity and residential areas exhibited the highest TP export intensity among the major ecosystem types in both study areas. Moreover, the TP retention intensities of dryland crops and residential areas in the DL watershed were much higher than they were in the LRZR watershed. Our findings imply that the flow of the nutrient retention service is influenced more by the service demand than by the service potential and that it is influenced by both landscape composition and pattern. Because of the limitations and uncertainties in the modeling outputs, our results should be carefully used in other studies or in decision-making.

Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty

Many ecosystem services (ES) models exist to support sustainable development decisions. However, most ES studies use only a single modelling framework and, because of a lack of validation data, rarely assess model accuracy for the study area. In line with other research themes which have high model uncertainty, such as climate change, ensembles of ES models may better serve decision-makers by providing more robust and accurate estimates, as well as provide indications of uncertainty when validation data are not available. To illustrate the benefits of an ensemble approach, we highlight the variation between alternative models, demonstrating that there are large geographic regions where decisions based on individual models are not robust. We test if ensembles are more accurate by comparing the ensemble accuracy of multiple models for six ES against validation data across sub-Saharan Africa with the accuracy of individual models. We find that ensembles are better predictors of ES, being 5.0-6.1% more accurate than individual models. We also find that the uncertainty (i.e. variation among constituent models) of the model ensemble is negatively correlated with accuracy and so can be used as a proxy for accuracy when validation is not possible (e.g. in data-deficient areas or when developing scenarios). Since ensembles are more robust, accurate and convey uncertainty, we recommend that ensemble modelling should be more widely implemented within ES science to better support policy choices and implementation.

Assessment of the impact of the Poplar Ecological Retreat Project on water conservation in the Dongting Lake wetland region using the InVEST model

The Poplar Ecological Retreat (PER) project is a significant environmental protection initiative implemented to protect the Dongting Lake wetlands ecosystem in China, and the ecological impacts of this project have gradually become a hot topic. In this study, water conservation was selected as an indicator of ecosystem function to explore the impact of the project by using the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and geographic statistical methods. Water yield and land-use changes were quantitatively evaluated, and significant changes in the wetland landscape configuration occurred after the PER project because forest beach, moss marshland and mudflat areas were transformed into a poplar-retreat area. Thus, the proportion of the poplar-retreat area and average water yield increased. By using the principal component and cluster analysis methods, climate change and landscape patterns were shown to be the dominant driving factors affecting water conservation under stable meteorological conditions. Moreover, the landscape heterogeneity that resulted from the landscape patterns had a greater impact than climate change, which means that reducing human activities can enhance water conservation. Additionally, the correlation between landscape heterogeneity and water yield indicated that reducing landscape fragmentation and improving aggregation also benefit water conservation. Therefore, the PER project is successful at enhancing ecological functions and protecting wetland environments, and it represents a good example of maintaining ecological sustainability despite local economic performance restrictions. This project serves as an important reference for the establishment of sustainable wetland ecological policies by national governments, and the results can provide theoretical support for landscape ecology and eco-hydrology research.

Trade-Offs Analysis of Ecosystem Services for the Grain for Green Program: Informing Reforestation Decisions in a Mountainous Headwater Region, Northeast China

The effects of forest restoration on ecosystem services and their trade-offs are increasingly discussed by environmental managers and ecologists, but few demonstrations have analyzed ecosystem service trade-offs with a view to informing afforestation choices. Here, we examined how the Grain for Green Program (GGP), an ambitious reforestation program in China, affected ecosystem services. We quantified regulating services and provisioning service in the potential scenarios, which were developed to improve ecosystem services better. The results indicated the GGP drove 14.5% of land-use/land-cover from 2000 to 2015, and all the regulating services increased. Prioritizing reforestations in steep-sloped and riparian farmlands can promote flood mitigation, water purification, and soil retention services by 62.7%, 25.5%, and 216.1% as compared with 2015 levels, respectively, suggesting that the improvements strongly depend on afforestation locations. Driven by the new GGP policy, a high proportion of economic forest increased provisioning service (272.2%), but at the expense of decreases in soil retention (−25.1%), flood mitigation (−11.4%), water purification (−36.6%), and carbon storage (−48.5%). We identified a suitable scenario that would reduce the trade-offs, which associated with afforestation types and their spatial allocation. Identifying priority areas of afforestation types can inform the GGP policy to assure sustainable and broader benefits.

Spatiotemporal Water Yield Variations and Influencing Factors in the Lhasa River Basin, Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of water yield and its influencing factors is important for water resources management. In this study, we used the seasonal water yield model (SWYM) to assess the spatiotemporal water yield changes of the Lhasa River Basin from 1990 to 2015, and analyzed its influencing factors by focusing on precipitation, land cover, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) change. We first examined the model through Morris screening sensitivity analysis and validated it with the observed flow data. Spatiotemporal variation of three indices of water yield, baseflow, quick flow, and local recharge were then assessed. Results showed that from 1990 to 2015, the baseflow, local recharge, and quick flow decreased by 67.03%, 80.21%, and 37.03%, respectively. The spatial pattern of water yield remained mostly unchanged. According to the contribution analysis, precipitation and NDVI change were the main factors affecting water yield in the Lhasa River Basin, while land cover change began to exert greater influence after 2010. A combination of climate change and human activities therefore drive water yield change, especially through vegetation change. Water resources management strategies should thus take into account the combination of rapidly changing climate and human activities.

Quantifying Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs to Inform Spatial Identification of Forest Restoration

Specific forest restoration aims to maximum ecosystem services (ESs); however, the complex trade-offs among ecosystem services pose considerable challenges for fulfilling such goals. Based on forest restoration on Hainan Island, China, we integrated spatially explicit models of ecosystem services and spatial prioritization techniques based on the efficiency frontier between habitat quality and plantation revenue to analyze the impacts of decision-makers’ preferences on optimal configurations of forest restoration. We then investigated the effects of different optimal restoration schemes on water purification, soil retention, carbon sequestration, and coastal hazard mitigation. Based on our results, plantation revenue and habitat quality exhibited an obvious trade-off during the process of restoration. Forest restoration patterns also varied with the degree of preference for plantation yield or habitat quality, indicating that understanding ecosystem service tradeoffs can support the optimal selection of forest restoration schemes under different preferences. However, when the values of multiple ecosystem services associated with forest restoration were considered (e.g., water purification, soil retention, carbon sequestration, and coastal hazard mitigation), the optimal solution choice varied. Our results suggest the application of the efficiency frontier can deepen quantitative understanding of ecosystem service trade-offs, and the addition of multi-benefit evaluation based on optimal solutions can provide a more detailed and broader picture of forest restoration plans. Integrated efficiency frontier assessment with the valuation of ecosystem services associated with forest restoration provides a quantitative approach for optimal forest restoration, which can be applied in broad forest restoration programs.

Analyzing the provision of ecosystem services by conservation easements and other protected and non-protected areas in the Upper Chattahoochee Watershed

A conservation easement (CE) legally places a permanent restriction on the development of a private land parcel, and in turn, can provide tax benefits to the landowner. We used the modular toolset InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) to quantify provision of five ecosystem services (ESs) (carbon storage, wildlife habitat quality, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment exports) provided by CEs and other land typologies (Simulated Parcels, 1 km Buffer area, Watershed Average, Federal, State and Local Protected Areas) within the Upper Chattahoochee Watershed (UCW), which provides 72% of drinking water to about six million residents of the Atlanta Metropolitan Area and is experiencing one of fastest urban growth of the United States. Simulated Parcels would represent the land cover of CEs if the development restrictions were not in place. We conducted the analysis for 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. We aggregated all ESs into one index. Overall, CEs provided higher levels of ESs relative to the Simulated Parcels, 1 km Buffer, Watershed Average, and Local Protected Areas. However, the ESs from CEs were lower relative to Federal and State Protected Areas. Our results suggest that CEs are effective in ensuring the continuance of ESs within the UCW.

Global modeling of nature's contributions to people

The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people's needs for nature are now greatest, nature's ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.

BESTMAP: behavioural, Ecological and Socio-economic Tools for Modelling Agricultural Policy

Half of the European Union (EU) land and the livelihood of 10 million farmers is threatened by unsustainable land-use intensification, land abandonment and climate change. Policy instruments, including the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) have so far failed to stop this environmental degradation. BESTMAP will: 1) Develop a behavioural theoretical modelling framework to take into account complexity of farmers’ decision-making; 2) Develop, adapt and customize a suite of opensource, flexible, interoperable and customisable computer models linked to existing data e.g. LPIS/IACS and remote sensing e.g. Sentinel-2; 3) Link economic, individual-farm agent-based, biophysical ecosystem services and biodiversity and geostatistical socio-economic models; 4) Produce a simple-to-use dashboard to compare scenarios of Agri-Environmental Schemes adoption; 5) Improve the effectiveness of future EU rural policies’ design, monitoring and implementation.

Correlations of Stormwater Runoff and Quality: Urban Pavement and Property Value by Land Use at the Parcel Level in a Small Sized American City

As the urban environment keeps growing, stormwater management programs have been adopted to address unregulated nonpoint runoff and pollutants across the world. Extensive studies on stormwater runoff and quality at smaller spatial scales exist, but are rare at larger spatial scales. Using the City of Corvallis, Oregon, a small sized American city, as a test-bed, this study estimates urban stormwater runoff and quality by zoning, which specifies land uses, and by parcel, which defines land ownership using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and high resolution land use and land cover data. The correlations between stormwater runoff volume, stormwater quality, parcel land cover sizes, and values are then analyzed and visualized in RStudio. The results indicate that stormwater runoff and quality are determined by complex biophysical processes, with strong correlations between urban spatial sizes and property values for some land uses being observed. The research results provide suggestions for low impact development applications for different land uses, and the findings in this research can be used to suggest stormwater management policy for various land uses in small sized cities.

Modeling nitrogen and phosphorus export with InVEST model in Bosten Lake basin of Northwest China

Bosten Lake is an important region of Northwest China that has transformed from a freshwater lake to a saltwater lake since the 1970s. The water quality in the Bosten Lake basin is important for social and economic development, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are the key indicators of water quality. The land use data, precipitation data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model were used to simulate the N and P exports of the Bosten Lake basin. The spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus exports, and the response of nitrogen and phosphorus exports to land use change and precipitation change were analyzed between 2000 and 2015. The results show that the amount of N and P exports increased during 2000–2015, and the N and P exports are mainly distributed around Bosten Lake. The N and P exports are greatly affected by cultivated land, built-up areas and grassland, while they are less affected by other land use types. The high precipitation areas with small exports of N and P are mainly distributed in mountain areas, while small precipitation areas with large exports of N and P are distributed in plains where the cultivated land and built-up areas are concentrated. The InVEST model can be used in Northwest China, and the statistical downscaling of reanalysis precipitation data can be used in the InVEST model to improve the simulation accuracy in the data scarce regions of Northwest China.

Does Quantification of Ecosystem Services Depend Upon Scale (Resolution and Extent)? A Case Study Using the InVEST Nutrient Delivery Ratio Model in Georgia, United States

Modeling ecosystem services (ESs) intrinsically involves the use of spatial and temporal data. Correct estimates of ecosystem services are inherently dependent upon the scale (resolution and extent) of the input spatial data. Sensitivity of modeling platforms typically used for quantifying ESs to simultaneous changes in the resolution and extent of spatial data is not particularly clear at present. This study used the Nutrient Delivery Ratio (NDR) model embedded in InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) for ascertaining the sensitivity of the outputs to three digital elevation models (DEM), two land cover datasets, and three precipitation grids for 57 watersheds located in Georgia, United States. Multivariate regression models were developed to verify the influence of the spatial resolution of input data on the NDR model output at two spatial extents (the state of Georgia and six physiographical regions within the state). Discrepancies in nutrient exports up to 77.4% and 168.1% were found among scenarios at the state level for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. Land cover datasets differing in resolution were responsible for the highest differences in nutrient exports. Significance (at 5% level) of spatial variables on the model outputs were different for the two spatial extents, demonstrating the influence of scale when modeling nutrient runoff and its importance for better policy prescriptions.