Maintaining forest cover to enhance temperature buffering under future climate change

Modelling microclimatic variability in Andean forests of northern Patagonia

Information on microclimatic conditions beneath canopies is key to understanding small-scale ecological processes, especially concerning the response of biodiversity to climate change. In north-western Patagonia, where data on climate-driven species distribution are scarce, our study provides valuable insights by providing microclimatic models covering spatiotemporal dynamics at 30 × 30 m resolution. Applying in-situ data from 2022 to 2024, we employed a random forest-based regression to assess the impact of several biophysical predictor variables describing terrain and vegetation properties on four microclimatic response variables at three vertical levels within forests. We also interpolated this data spatiotemporally, using statistical downscaling of ERA5 data. Our analysis reveals that the influence of the predictor variables varies strongly by month and response variable. Moreover, significant variability was observed between the models and months regarding their explanatory power and error range. For instance, the model predicting maximum air temperature at a 2 m height achieved an R² of 0.88 and an RMSE of 1.5 °C, while the model for minimum air temperature resulted in an R² of 0.73 and an RMSE of 1.8 °C. Our model approach provides a benchmark for spatiotemporal projections in this data-scarce region, aligned with the climate normal from 1981 to 2010. Future refinement could benefit from data on snow cover, land use and land cover, soil, as well as structural information on vegetation over an extended period, to enhance the dynamical aspects of microclimatic modelling. We are confident that our present model will substantially enhance possibilities to analyse species distribution across vegetation types and terrain-related features within the area.

Microclimatic changes caused by plant invasions and warming: uncovering thermal costs and benefits to a tortoise

Non-native plant invasions and climate warming alter the microclimatic conditions that organisms experience in their habitats, with potential implications for the fitness of native faunal species, particularly ectotherms. Predictions for species conservation increasingly use microclimate data at fine spatial scales relevant to organisms, but they typically overlook the modulating effect that vegetation changes have on the microclimates available in the habitat. Here we quantify the microclimatic changes imposed by invasive trees and simultaneous warming on native habitats and assess the resulting thermal benefits and costs to a small tortoise species (Homopus areolatus) from an organismal perspective and throughout its life cycle. We logged operative temperature above- and belowground in the field, covering the diversity of microhabitats across the four seasons of the year, and assessed the species' optimal temperature in the laboratory. Moving beyond the common use of averages, we applied a range of metrics to quantify differences between invaded and native areas in spatio-temporal temperature distributions, combined effects with warming and thermal habitat suitability for the species. We found that invaded areas became cooler and less exposed to temperatures above the species' optimal in summer. This buffering effect is expected to become more pronounced with further climate warming, turning invaded areas into potential thermal refugia. However, reduced spatial thermal heterogeneity during warm periods, more prevalent sub-optimal low temperatures in winter and colder underground incubation conditions in invaded areas could be detrimental to the species' long-term performance. Our results reveal the mixed nature of thermal effects of invasive plants on ectotherms, underscoring the importance of applying a suite of metrics to assess microclimate distribution changes. The approach used here illustrates the value of integrating thermal physiological and microclimatic information for a more mechanistic understanding of conservation problems.

Microclimate temperature effects propagate across scales in forest ecosystems

Context

Forest canopies shape subcanopy environments, affecting biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Empirical forest microclimate studies are often restricted to local scales and short-term effects, but forest dynamics unfold at landscape scales and over long time periods.

Objectives

We developed the first explicit and dynamic implementation of microclimate temperature buffering in a forest landscape model and investigated effects on simulated forest dynamics and outcomes.

Methods

We adapted the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to use microclimate temperature for three processes [decomposition, bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) development, and tree seedling establishment]. We simulated forest dynamics with or without microclimate temperature buffering in a temperate European mountain landscape under historical climate and disturbance conditions.

Results

Temperature buffering effects propagated from local to landscape scales. After 1,000 simulation years, average total carbon and cumulative net ecosystem productivity were 2% and 21% higher, respectively, and tree species composition differed in simulations including versus excluding microclimate buffering. When microclimate buffering was included, Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) increased by 9% and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) decreased by 12% in mean basal area share. Some effects were amplified across scales, such as a mean 16% decrease in local-scale bark beetle development rates resulting in a mean 45% decrease in landscape-scale bark beetle-caused mortality.

Conclusions

Microclimate effects on forests scaled nonlinearly from stand to landscape and days to millennia, underlining the utility of complex simulation models for dynamic upscaling in space and time. Microclimate temperature buffering can alter forest dynamics at landscape scales.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-025-02054-8.

Exploitation of Perennial Plant Biomass for Particleboards Designed for Insulation Applications

With rising demand for wood products and reduced wood harvesting due to the European Green Deal, alternative lignocellulosic materials for insulation are necessary. In this work, we manufactured reference particleboard from industrial particles and fifteen different board variants from alternative lignocellulosic plants material, i.e., five types of perennial plant biomass in three substitutions: 30, 50 and 75% of their share in the board with a nominal density of 250 kg/m3. Within the analysis of manufactured boards, the mechanical, chemical and thermal properties were investigated-internal bond, formaldehyde emissions, thermal insulation, heat transfer coefficient and thermal conductivity. In the case of thermal conductivity, the most promising results from a practical point of view (W/mK < 0.07) were obtained with Sida hermaphrodita and Miscanthus, achieving the best results at 50% substitution. The lowest formaldehyde emissions were recorded for boards with Panicum virgatum and Miscanthus, highlighting their positive environmental performance. In terms of mechanical properties, the highest internal bond was noticed in particleboards with a 30% substitution of Spartina pectinata and Miscanthus. Research findings confirm the potential of perennial plants as a sustainable source of raw materials for insulation panel manufacturing. Despite needing improvements in mechanical properties, most notably internal bond strength, these plants offer an ecologically responsible solution aligned with global construction trends, thus lessening reliance on traditional wood products. Thus, long-term benefits may be realized through the strategic combination of diverse raw materials within a single particleboard.

Evidence-base for urban green-blue infrastructure to support insect diversity

Green-blue urban infrastructures potentially offer win-win benefits for people and nature in urban areas. Given increasing evidence of widespread declines of insects, as well as their ecological importance, there is a need to better understand the potential role of green-blue urban infrastructure for insect conservation. In this review, we evaluated 201 studies about the ability of green-blue infrastructure to support insect diversity. Most studies were focused on the role of local and landscape-level characteristics of green-blue infrastructure. Fewer studies explicitly compared one type of infrastructure to another, and even fewer compared insect communities between green-blue infrastructure and traditional infrastructure. Overall, the body of research highlights the importance of plant diversity and reduced intensity of management (e.g., mowing) for most insect taxon groups. While local characteristics seem to be generally more important than landscape factors, insect communities within green-blue infrastructures can also depend on their connectivity and landscape context. Some infrastructure types are generally more beneficial than others; for instance, ground-level habitats tend to support more insects than green roofs. Few studies simultaneously studied synergies or trade-offs with other services provided by green-blue infrastructure, but environmental variables, such as tree cover and plant diversity, that affect insects are likely to also affect the provision of other services such as improving thermal comfort and the well-being of people. Our review offers some initial evidence for how green-blue infrastructure could be designed for multifunctionality with insects in mind.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11252-024-01649-4.

Effects of canopy gaps on microclimate, soil biological activity and their relationship in a European mixed floodplain forest

Forest canopy gaps can influence understorey microclimate and ecosystem functions such as decomposition. Gaps can arise from silviculture or tree mortality, increasingly influenced by climate change. However, to what degree canopy gaps affect the buffered microclimate in the understorey under macroclimatic changes is unclear. We, therefore, investigated the effect of forest gaps differing in structure and size (25 gaps: single tree gaps up to 0.67 ha cuttings) on microclimate and soil biological activity compared to closed forest in a European mixed floodplain forest. During the investigation period in the drought year 2022 between May and October, mean soil moisture and temperature as well as soil and air temperature fluctuations increased with increasing openness. In summer, the highest difference of monthly means between cuttings and closed forest in the topsoil was 3.98 ± 9.43 % volumetric moisture and 2.05 ± 0.89 °C temperature, and in the air at 30 cm height 0.61 ± 0.35 °C temperature. For buffering, both the over- and understorey tree layers appeared as relevant with a particularly strong influence of understorey density on soil temperature. Three experiments, investigating soil biological activity by quantifying decomposition rates of tea and wooden spatulas as well as mesofauna feeding activity with bait-lamina stripes, revealed no significant differences between gaps and closed forest. However, we found a positive significant effect of mean soil temperature on feeding activity throughout the season. Although soil moisture decreased during this period, it showed no counteracting effect on feeding activity. Generally, very few significant relationships were observed between microclimate and soil biological activity in single experiments. Despite the dry growing season, decomposition rates remained high, suggesting temperature had a stronger influence than soil moisture. We conclude that the microclimatic differences within the gap gradient of our experiment were not strong enough to affect soil biological activity considerably.

Decametric-scale buffering of climate extremes in forest understory within a riparian microrefugia: the key role of microtopography

Riparian corridors often act as low-land climate refugia for temperate tree species in their southern distribution range. A plausible mechanism is the buffering of regional climate extremes by local physiographic and biotic factors. We tested this idea using a 3-year-long microclimate dataset collected along the Ciron river, a refugia for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in southwestern France. Across the whole network, canopy gap fraction was the main predictor for spatial microclimatic variations, together with two other landscape features (elevation above the river and woodland fraction within a 300m radius). However, within the riparian forest only (canopy gap fraction < 25%, distance to the river < 150m), variations of up to -4°C and + 15% in summertime daily maximum air temperature and minimum relative humidity, respectively, were still found from the plateau to the cooler, moister river banks, only ~ 5-10m below. Elevation above the river was then identified as the main predictor, and explained the marked variations from the plateau to the banks much better than canopy gap fraction. The microclimate measured near the river is as cool but moister than the macroclimate encountered at 700-1000m asl further east in F. sylvatica's main distribution range. Indeed, at all locations, we found that air relative humidity was higher than expected from a temperature-only effect, suggesting that extra moisture is brought by the river. Our results explain well why beech trees in this climate refugium are restricted to the river gorges where microtopographic variations are the strongest and canopy gaps are rare.

Prediction of suitable regions of wild tomato provides insights on domesticated tomato cultivation in China

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to the world at present. Tomato is also suffered from devastating yield loss due to climate change. The domesticated tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) is presumed to be originated from the wild tomato (S. pimpinellifolium). In this study, we compared the climate data of S. pimpinellifollium with the domesticated tomato, predicted the suitable regions of S. pimpinellifollium in China using MaxEnt model and assessed their tolerance to drought stress. We found that the predicted suitable regions of wild tomato are highly consistent with the current cultivated regions of domesticated tomato, suggesting that the habitat demand of domesticated tomato descended largely from its ancestor, hence the habitat information of wild tomato could provide a reference for tomato cultivation. We further predicted suitable regions of wild tomato in the future in China. Finally, we found that while average drought tolerance between wild and domesticated tomato accessions shows no difference, tolerance levels among wild tomato accessions exhibit higher variation, which could be used for future breeding to improve drought resistance. To summarize, our study shows that suitable regions of wild tomato provide insights into domesticated tomato cultivation in China.

An assessment on the new impetus of green energy development and its impact on climate change: a non-linear perspective

The purpose of this article is to investigate the new driving forces behind China's green energy and further assess the impact of green energy on climate change. The existing literature has used linear methods to investigate green energy, ignoring the non-linear relationships between economic variables. The nonparametric models can accurately simulate nonlinear relationships between economic variables. This paper constructs a nonparametric additive model and uses it to explore green energy. The empirical results show that the impact of green finance on green energy is more prominent in the later stage (a U-shaped impact). Fiscal decentralization also exerts a positive U-shaped impact, meaning that expanding local fiscal autonomy has contributed to green energy growth in the later stage. Similarly, the impact of oil prices and foreign direct investment demonstrates a positive U-shaped pattern. However, the nonlinear impact of environmental pressure displays an inverted U-shaped pattern. Furthermore, this article explores the impact of green energy on climate change and its impact mechanisms. The results exhibit green energy generates a positive U-shaped impact on climate change, meaning that the role of green energy in mitigating climate change gradually becomes prominent over time. Mechanism analysis exhibits that industrial structure and energy structure both produce a nonlinear influence on climate change.

Sustainable Development versus Extractivist Deforestation in Tropical, Subtropical, and Boreal Forest Ecosystems: Repercussions and Controversies about the Mother Tree and the Mycorrhizal Network Hypothesis

This research reviews the phenomenon of extractive deforestation as a possible trigger for cascade reactions that could affect part of the forest ecosystem and its biodiversity (surface, aerial, and underground) in tropical, subtropical, and boreal forests. The controversy and disparities in criteria generated in the international scientific community around the hypothesis of a possible link between "mother trees" and mycorrhizal networks in coopetition for nutrients, nitrogen, and carbon are analyzed. The objective is to promote awareness to generate more scientific knowledge about the eventual impacts of forest extraction. Public policies are emphasized as crucial mediators for balanced sustainable development. Currently, the effects of extractive deforestation on forest ecosystems are poorly understood, which requires caution and forest protection. Continued research to increase our knowledge in molecular biology is advocated to understand the adaptation of biological organisms to the new conditions of the ecosystem both in the face of extractive deforestation and reforestation. The environmental impacts of extractive deforestation, such as the loss of biodiversity, soil degradation, altered water cycles, and the contribution of climate change, remain largely unknown. Long-term and high-quality research is essential to ensure forest sustainability and the preservation of biodiversity for future generations.

Spatial distribution characteristics and pollution evaluation of soil heavy metals in Wulongdong National Forest Park

To scrutinize the spatial distribution attributes of soil heavy metal content and discern its pollution status within the expanse of Wulongdong National Forest Park, a meticulous investigation is imperative. Three altitude gradients of 900, 1000, and 1069 m were selected on the shady and sunny slopes of Wulongdong National Forest Park, and a total of 300 soil sample points were collected. Soil samples were collected in layers, and the contents of seven soil heavy metal elements, Cr, Cd, Hg, Ni, Se, As, and Pb, were measured. With regard to the national soil element background values, the single factor index method, Nemerow index method, and pollution load index were employed to undertake a thorough assessment of soil heavy metal pollution. (1) The contents of heavy metal elements Cr, Se, As, and Pb in the 0-20 cm soil layer of Wulongdong National Forest Park are lower than the national soil element background value and the Henan soil element background value; the Cd and Hg contents exceed the national soil element background value. The value and Henan soil element background value are 2.2 times and 2.92 times the national soil element background value, and 2.75 times and 9.5 times the Henan soil element background value respectively; Ni content is lower than the Henan soil element background value, but higher than the national soil element background value. The background value is 1.03 times its content. The coefficients of variation of the contents of seven heavy metal elements are all greater than 50%, among which Hg shows extreme variation, and the remaining six are highly variable. (2) In the same soil layer, the Cr and As contents are lower on sunny slopes than on shady slopes, and the contents of Pb, Ni, and Hg are generally higher on sunny slopes than on shady slopes. On sunny slopes, the contents of As, Cd, and Hg decrease with increasing altitude, and the Se content increases with increasing altitude; while on shady slopes, the contents of Cr, Se, and As decrease with increasing altitude, and Pb and Hg content increase with the increase of altitude; the content of heavy metal element As increases with the deepening of the soil layer on shady slopes, and the Hg content decreases with the deepening of the soil layer on sunny slopes. The contents of other heavy metal elements have no obvious regularity among different slope directions, altitudes and soil layers. (3) The single factor index evaluation results show that in the 0 ~ 20c soil layer and on the sunny slope, Hg is heavily polluted, Cd is moderately polluted, Ni is lightly polluted, and Cr, Se, As, and Pb are all non-polluted; On the shady slope, Cd and Hg are moderately polluted, and the other five heavy metal elements are in a non-polluting state. (4) The Nemerow index method evaluation results show that in the 0 ~ 20 cm soil layer, the soil on sunny slopes is significantly more polluted by heavy metals than on shady slopes, and the main pollutants are Ni, Cd and Hg. (5) In the 0 ~ 20 cm soil layer of Wulongdong National Forest Park, the three heavy metal elements Ni, Cd and Hg have reached pollution levels, of which Ni is slightly polluted, Cd and Hg are moderately or above polluted; the sunny slope soil is slightly polluted. Heavy metal pollution, no heavy metal pollution on shady slopes.

Extinction drives recent thermophilization but does not trigger homogenization in forest understorey

The ongoing climate change is triggering plant community thermophilization. This selection process ought to shift community composition towards species adapted to warmer climates but may also lead to biotic homogenization. The link between thermophilization and homogenization and the community dynamics that drive them (colonization and extinction) remain unknown but is critical for understanding community responses under rapid environmental change. We used 14,167 pairs of plots to study shifts in plant community during 10 years of rising temperature in 80 forest ecoregions of France. We computed community mean thermal optimum (thermophilization) and Δβ-diversity (homogenization) for each ecoregion and partitioned these changes into extinction and colonization dynamics of cold- and warm-adapted species. Forest understorey communities thermophilized on average by 0.12 °C per decade and up to 0.20 °C per decade in warm ecoregions. This rate was entirely driven by extinction dynamics. Extinction of cold-adapted species was a driver of homogenization but it was compensated for by the colonization of rare species and the extinction of common species, resulting in the absence of an apparent homogenization trend. Here we show a dieback of present cold-adapted species rather than an adaptation of communities via the arrival of warm-adapted species, with a mutually cancelling effect on β-diversity. These results suggest that a future loss of biodiversity and delayed biotic homogenization should be considered.

Population declines of a widespread amphibian in agricultural landscapes

Modern agricultural practices are suspected to play a major role in the ongoing erosion of biodiversity. In order to assess whether this biodiversity loss is linked to past habitat modifications (e.g. land consolidation) or to current consequences of modern agriculture (e.g. use of agrochemicals), it remains essential to monitor species that have persisted in agricultural landscapes to date. In this study, we assessed the presence, abundance and recent population trends of one such species, the spined toad (Bufo spinosus) along a gradient of habitats from preserved (forests) to highly agricultural sites in rural Western France. Our results showed that both presence and abundance of spined toads were markedly lower in reproductive ponds surrounded by intensive agriculture. The most salient result of our study is the ongoing decline of this species in farmland habitats. Indeed, this result suggests that unknown factors are currently affecting a widespread terrestrial amphibian previously thought to persist in agricultural landscapes. These factors have recently induced strong population declines over the course of a few years. Future investigations are required to identify these factors at a time when anthropogenic activities are currently leading to unprecedented rates of biodiversity loss.

Multiple drivers of functional diversity in temperate forest understories: Climate, soil, and forest structure effects

In macroecology, shifting from coarse- to local-scale explanatory factors is crucial for understanding how global change impacts functional diversity (FD). Plants possess diverse traits allowing them to differentially respond across a spectrum of environmental conditions. We aim to assess how macro- to microclimate, stand-scale measured soil properties, forest structure, and management type, influence forest understorey FD at the macroecological scale. Our study covers Italian forests, using thirteen predictors categorized into climate, soil, forest structure, and management. We analyzed five traits (i.e., specific leaf area, plant size, seed mass, belowground bud bank size, and clonal lateral spread) capturing independent functional dimensions to calculate the standardized effect size of functional diversity (SES-FD) for all traits (multi-trait) and for single traits. Multiple regression models were applied to assess the effect of predictors on SES-FD. We revealed that climate, soil, and forest structure significantly drive SES-FD of specific leaf area, plant size, seed mass, and bud bank. Forest management had a limited effect. However, differences emerged between herbaceous and woody growth forms of the understorey layer, with herbaceous species mainly responding to climate and soil features, while woody species were mainly affected by forest structure. Future warmer and more seasonal climate could reduce the diversity of resource economics, plant size, and persistence strategies of the forest understorey. Soil eutrophication and acidification may impact the diversity of regeneration strategies; canopy closure affects the diversity of above- and belowground traits, with a larger effect on woody species. Multifunctional approaches are vital to disentangle the effect of global changes on functional diversity since independent functional specialization axes are modulated by different drivers.

Forest understorey flowering phenology responses to experimental warming and illumination

Species are altering their phenology to track warming temperatures. In forests, understorey plants experience tree canopy shading resulting in light and temperature conditions, which strongly deviate from open habitats. Yet, little is known about understorey phenology responses to forest microclimates. We recorded flowering onset, peak, end and duration of 10 temperate forest understorey plant species in two mesocosm experiments to understand how phenology is affected by sub-canopy warming and how this response is modulated by illumination, which is related to canopy change. Furthermore, we investigated whether phenological sensitivities can be explained by species' characteristics, such as thermal niche. We found a mean advance of flowering onset of 7.1 d per 1°C warming, more than previously reported in studies not accounting for microclimatic buffering. Warm-adapted species exhibited greater advances. Temperature sensitivity did not differ between early- and later-flowering species. Experimental illumination did not significantly affect species' phenological temperature sensitivities, but slightly delayed flowering phenology independent from warming. Our study suggests that integrating sub-canopy temperature and light availability will help us better understand future understorey phenology responses. Climate warming together with intensifying canopy disturbances will continue to drive phenological shifts and potentially disrupt understorey communities, thereby affecting forest biodiversity and functioning.

Using warming tolerances to predict understory plant responses to climate change

Climate change is pushing species towards and potentially beyond their critical thermal limits. The extent to which species can cope with temperatures exceeding their critical thermal limits is still uncertain. To better assess species' responses to warming, we compute the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) as a thermal vulnerability index, using species' upper thermal limits (the temperature at the warm limit of their distribution range) minus the local habitat temperature actually experienced at a given location. This metric is useful to predict how much more warming species can tolerate before negative impacts are expected to occur. Here we set up a cross-continental transplant experiment involving five regions distributed along a latitudinal gradient across Europe (43° N-61° N). Transplant sites were located in dense and open forests stands, and at forest edges and in interiors. We estimated the warming tolerance for 12 understory plant species common in European temperate forests. During 3 years, we examined the effects of the warming tolerance of each species across all transplanted locations on local plant performance, in terms of survival, height, ground cover, flowering probabilities and flower number. We found that the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) of the 12 studied understory species was significantly different across Europe and varied by up to 8°C. In general, ΔTniche were smaller (less positive) towards the forest edge and in open stands. Plant performance (growth and reproduction) increased with increasing ΔTniche across all 12 species. Our study demonstrated that ΔTniche of understory plant species varied with macroclimatic differences among regions across Europe, as well as in response to forest microclimates, albeit to a lesser extent. Our findings support the hypothesis that plant performance across species decreases in terms of growth and reproduction as local temperature conditions reach or exceed the warm limit of the focal species.

Past and future trends of diurnal temperature range and their correlation with vegetation assessed by MODIS and CMIP6

Temperature anomalies and changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are expected to pose physiological challenges to biota; hence, both spatial and temporal variations in DTR provide important insights into temperature-induced stress in humans, animals, and vegetation. Furthermore, vegetation could dampen temperature variability. Here, we use the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing data of Land Surface Temperature (LST) to evaluate the global variation in DTR and its rate of change in spatial and temporal scales for the two decades spanning from 2001 to 2020. We show that North America, Africa, and Antarctica, as well as the global mean, experienced statistically significant DTR rates of change over the last 20 years in either summer, winter, or the annual mean. The rates were all negative, indicating the day-night temperature differences are decreasing in those regions because night temperatures are increasing at a faster rate than day temperatures. MODIS data of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) revealed a strongly negative correlation with DTR, with a spatial correlation coefficient of -0.61. This correlation demonstrates a prominent dampening effect of vegetation on diurnal temperature oscillations. For future DTR projections, we used 19 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to predict global DTR trends from 2021 to 2050 with low and high CO2 concentration scenarios. The high CO2 emission scenario projects significant decreases in DTR in circumpolar regions, central Africa, and India compared to the low CO2 scenario. This difference in the two scenarios underscores the substantial influence of increased global temperatures and elevated CO2 concentration on DTR and, consequently, on the ecosystems in certain regions.

Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species

Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species reside in the shade of trees. For forest plant species across Europe, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering. We show that microclimate-based SDMs at high spatial resolution outperformed models using macroclimate and microclimate data at coarser resolution. Additionally, macroclimate-based models introduced a systematic bias in modelled species response curves, which could result in erroneous range shift predictions. Critically important for conservation science, these models were unable to identify warm and cold refugia at the range edges of species distributions. Our study emphasizes the crucial role of microclimate data when SDMs are used to gain insights into biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change, particularly given the growing policy and management focus on the conservation of refugia worldwide.

Habitat degradation exacerbates the effects of anthropogenic warming by removing thermal refuges

Habitat degradation removes shaded microhabitats that serve as thermal refuges, but not all microhabitats provide equally valuable shade.

Assessing the suitability and dynamics of three medicinal Sambucus species in China under current and future climate scenarios

Climate change exerts profound influences on the ecological environments on a global scale, leading to habitat destruction and altering distribution patterns for numerous plant species. Traditional Chinese medicinal plants, such as those belonging to the Sambucus genus, have been extensively utilized for several centuries to treat fractures, rheumatism, and inflammation. However, our understanding of their geographic distribution and climatic adaptation within China still needs to be improved. In this study, we screened the optimal predictive model (random forest model) to predict the potential suitable distribution of three Sambucus species (Sambucus adnata, Sambucus javanica, and Sambucus williamsii) across China under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, we identified key climate factors that influence their potential distributions. Our findings revealed that S. adnata and S. javanica are predominantly shaped by temperature seasonality and mean diurnal range, respectively, whereas S. williamsii is significantly affected by the precipitation of the wettest month. Currently, S. williamsii is primarily distributed in north and central south China (covering 9.57 × 105 km2), S. javanica is prevalent in the south and east regions (covering 6.41×105 km2), and S. adnata predominantly thrives in the southwest China (covering 1.99×105 km2). Under future climate change scenarios, it is anticipated that S. adnata may migrate to higher latitudes while S. javanica may shift to lower latitudes. However, potentially suitable areas for S. williamsii may contract under certain scenarios for the years 2050 and 2090, with an expansion trend under the SSP585 scenario for the year 2090. Our study emphasizes the importance of climatic variables in influencing the potential geographic distribution of Sambucus species. These findings provide valuable theoretical insights for the preservation, cultivation, and utilization of Sambucus medicinal plant resources in the context of ongoing climate change.

Harmonizing spatial scales and ecological theories to predict avian richness and functional diversity within forest ecosystems

Classic ecological theory has proven that temperature, precipitation and productivity organize ecosystems at broad scales and are generalized drivers of biodiversity within different biomes. At local scales, the strength of these predictors is not consistent across different biomes. To better translate these theories to localized scales, it is essential to determine the links between drivers of biodiversity. Here we harmonize existing ecological theories to increase the predictive power for species richness and functional diversity. We test the relative importance of three-dimensional habitat structure as a link between local and broad-scale patterns of avian richness and functional diversity. Our results indicate that habitat structure is more important than precipitation, temperature and elevation gradients for predicting avian species richness and functional diversity across different forest ecosystems in North America. We conclude that forest structure, influenced by climatic drivers, is essential for predicting the response of biodiversity with future shifts in climatic regimes.

ForestClim-Bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests

Microclimate research gained renewed interest over the last decade and its importance for many ecological processes is increasingly being recognized. Consequently, the call for high-resolution microclimatic temperature grids across broad spatial extents is becoming more pressing to improve ecological models. Here, we provide a new set of open-access bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests at 25 × 25 m² resolution.

Associations of ambient temperature with mortality for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and the modification effects of greenness in Shandong Province, China

BACKGROUND

Evidence is scant on the relative and attributable contributions of ambient temperature on stroke subtypes mortality. Few studies have examined modification effects of multiple greenness indicators on such contributions, especially in China. We quantified the associations between ambient temperature and overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke mortality; further examined whether the associations were modified by greenness.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter time-series analysis from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2019. we adopted a distributed lag non-linear model to evaluate county-specific temperature-stroke mortality associations. We then applied a random-effects meta-analysis to pool county-specific effects. Attributable mortality was calculated for cold and heat, defined as temperatures below and above the minimum mortality temperature (MMT). Finally, We conducted a multivariate meta-regression to determine associations between greenness and stroke mortality risks for cold and heat, using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) as quantitative indicators of greenness exposure.

RESULTS

In the study period, 138,749 deaths from total stroke were reported: 86,873 ischemic and 51,876 hemorrhagic stroke. We observed significant W-shaped relationships between temperature and stroke mortality, with substantial differences among counties and regions. With MMT as the temperature threshold, 17.16 % (95 % empirical CI, 13.38 %-19.75 %) of overall, 20.05 % (95 % eCI, 16.46 %-22.70 %) of ischemic, and 12.55 % (95 % eCI, 5.59 %-16.24 %) of hemorrhagic stroke mortality were attributable to non-optimum temperature (combining cold and heat), more mortality was caused by cold (14.94 %; 95 % eCI, 11.57 %-17.34 %) than by heat (2.22 %; 95 % eCI, 1.54 %-2.72 %). Higher levels of NDVI, SAVI and EVI were related to mitigated effects of non-optimum temperatures-especially heat.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to non-optimum temperatures aggravated stroke mortality risks; increasing greenness could alleviate that risks. This evidence has important implications for local communities in developing adaptive strategies to minimize the health consequences of adverse temperatures.

Topographic and vegetation drivers of thermal heterogeneity along the boreal-grassland transition zone in western Canada: Implications for climate change refugia

Climate change refugia are areas that are relatively buffered from contemporary climate change and may be important safe havens for wildlife and plants under anthropogenic climate change. Topographic variation is an important driver of thermal heterogeneity, but it is limited in relatively flat landscapes, such as the boreal plain and prairie regions of western Canada. Topographic variation within this region is mostly restricted to river valleys and hill systems, and their effects on local climates are not well documented. We sought to quantify thermal heterogeneity as a function of topography and vegetation cover within major valleys and hill systems across the boreal-grassland transition zone. Using iButton data loggers, we monitored local temperature at four hills and 12 river valley systems that comprised a wide range of habitats and ecosystems in Alberta, Canada (N = 240), between 2014 and 2020. We then modeled monthly temperature by season as a function of topography and different vegetation cover types using general linear mixed effect models. Summer maximum temperatures (T max) varied nearly 6°C across the elevation gradient sampled. Local summer mean (T mean) and maximum (T max) temperatures on steep, north-facing slopes (i.e., low levels of potential solar radiation) were up to 0.70°C and 2.90°C cooler than highly exposed areas, respectively. T max in incised valleys was between 0.26 and 0.28°C cooler than other landforms, whereas areas with greater terrain roughness experienced maximum temperatures that were up to 1.62°C cooler. We also found that forest cover buffered temperatures locally, with coniferous and mixedwood forests decreasing summer T mean from 0.23 to 0.72°C and increasing winter T min by up to 2°C, relative to non-forested areas. Spatial predictions of temperatures from iButton data loggers were similar to a gridded climate product (ClimateNA), but the difference between them increased with potential solar radiation, vegetation cover, and terrain roughness. Species that can track their climate niche may be able to compensate for regional climate warming through local migrations to cooler microsites. Topographic and vegetation characteristics that are related to cooler local climates should be considered in the evaluation of future climate change impacts and to identify potential refugia from climate change.

Identifying the Factors behind Climate Diversification and Refugial Capacity in Mountain Landscapes: The Key Role of Forests

Recent studies have shown the importance of small-scale climate diversification and climate microrefugia for organisms to escape or suffer less from the impact of current climate change. These situations are common in topographically complex terrains like mountains, where many climate-forcing factors vary at a fine spatial resolution. We investigated this effect in a high roughness area of a southern European range (the Pyrenees), with the aid of a network of miniaturized temperature and relative humidity sensors distributed across 2100 m of elevation difference. We modeled the minimum (Tn) and maximum (Tx) temperatures above- and below-ground, and maximum vapor pressure deficit (VPDmax), as a function of several topographic and vegetation variables derived from ALS-LiDAR data and Landsat series. Microclimatic models had a good fit, working better in soil than in air, and for Tn than for Tx. Topographic variables (including elevation) had a larger effect on above-ground Tn, and vegetation variables on Tx. Forest canopy had a significant effect not only on the spatial diversity of microclimatic metrics but also on their refugial capacity, either stabilizing thermal ranges or offsetting free-air extreme temperatures and VPDmax. Our integrative approach provided an overview of microclimatic differences between air and soil, forests and open areas, and highlighted the importance of preserving and managing forests to mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Remote-sensing can provide essential tools to detect areas that accumulate different factors extensively promoting refugial capacity, which should be prioritized based on their high resilience.