The interplay between climate change, forests, and disturbances

The interaction between administrative jurisdiction and disturbance on public lands: Emerging socioecological feedbacks and dynamics

Disturbance is one of the fundamental shapers of ecological communities, redistributing resources and resetting successional pathways. Human activities including resources management can influence disturbance regimes and trajectories by actively imposing or suppressing disturbance events or shaping ecosystem recovery via disturbance response. Furthermore, different management objectives may drive different disturbance responses. This suggests that the management jurisdiction to which a land parcel is assigned is likely to influence disturbance management and therefore ecological conditions within that parcel. Here, we combined two exploratory approaches to investigate this linkage. First, we used a systematic literature review to develop a typology of reported disturbance response types and strategies by federal land management agencies in the US. Second, we used Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot data in five multi-jurisdictional ecosystems containing national parks to investigate the relationship between land ownership and large disturbance occurrence and between disturbance and tree growth rate. We found that agencies vary in the diversity of disturbance response tactics they are reported to employ, and disturbance types vary in the diversity of responses reported in the literature. Disturbance occurrence varied by land ownership type across the FIA dataset, and the direction of tree growth rate was influenced by the interaction between ownership type and disturbance occurrence in two of five examined ecosystems. Although our mixed methods approach was purely exploratory and not mechanistic, our findings suggest that disturbance response is one possible route by which management regimes may influence ecological conditions. Efforts to understand and predict ecological heterogeneity across large landscapes must consider variation in the social system as a potential contributor to such patterns.

Strategic roadmap to assess forest vulnerability under air pollution and climate change

Although it is an integral part of global change, most of the research addressing the effects of climate change on forests have overlooked the role of environmental pollution. Similarly, most studies investigating the effects of air pollutants on forests have generally neglected the impacts of climate change. We review the current knowledge on combined air pollution and climate change effects on global forest ecosystems and identify several key research priorities as a roadmap for the future. Specifically, we recommend (1) the establishment of much denser array of monitoring sites, particularly in the South Hemisphere; (2) further integration of ground and satellite monitoring; (3) generation of flux-based standards and critical levels taking into account the sensitivity of dominant forest tree species; (4) long-term monitoring of N, S, P cycles and base cations deposition together at global scale; (5) intensification of experimental studies, addressing the combined effects of different abiotic factors on forests by assuring a better representation of taxonomic and functional diversity across the ~73,000 tree species on Earth; (6) more experimental focus on phenomics and genomics; (7) improved knowledge on key processes regulating the dynamics of radionuclides in forest systems; and (8) development of models integrating air pollution and climate change data from long-term monitoring programs.

Evaluating Effects of Post-Fire Climate and Burn Severity on the Early-Term Regeneration of Forest and Shrub Communities in the San Gabriel Mountains of California from Sentinel-2(MSI) Images

Studying the early changes in post-fire vegetation communities may improve the overall resilience of forests. The necessity for doing so was demonstrated by the Bobcat Fire, which seriously threatened the central San Gabriel Mountains and the Angeles National Forest in California. This study aimed to monitor and quantify the effects of climatological and topographic conditions along with burn severity on early (within 1 year) post-fire forests and shrubs community regeneration. In this study, we used Sentinel-2(MSI) intensive time-series imagery (July 2020–October 2021) to make a confusion matrix combined with 389 vegetation sample points on Google Earth Pro. The overall accuracy (OA) and the Kappa coefficient, calculated from the confusion matrix, were used as evaluation parameters to validate the classification results. With multiple linear regression models and Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) historical images, we analyzed the effects of climate and slope aspects on the regeneration of post-fire forest and shrub communities. We also quantitatively analyzed the regeneration rates based on five burn severity types. The results show that the normalized burning rate (NBR) was the most accurate vegetation classification indicator in this study (OA: 92.3–99.5%, Kappa: 0.88–0.98). The vegetation classification accuracy based on SVM is about 6.6% higher than K-Means. The overall accuracy of the burn area is 94.87%. Post-fire climate factors had a significant impact on the regeneration of the two vegetation communities (R2: 0.42–0.88); the optimal regeneration slope was 15–35°; and the fire severity changed the original competition relationship and regeneration rate. The results provide four main insights into the regeneration of post-fire vegetation communities: (1) climate factors in the first regenerating season have important impacts on the regeneration of forest and shrub communities; (2) daytime duration and rainfall are the most significant factors for forests and shrubs regeneration; (3) tolerable low burn severity promotes forests regeneration; and (4) forests have a certain ability to resist fires, while shrubs can better tolerate high-intensity fire ecology. This study could support the implementation of strategies for regionalized forest management and the targeted enhancement of post-fire vegetation community resilience.

Integration of VIIRS Observations with GEDI-Lidar Measurements to Monitor Forest Structure Dynamics from 2013 to 2020 across the Conterminous United States

Consistent and spatially explicit periodic monitoring of forest structure is essential for estimating forest-related carbon emissions, analyzing forest degradation, and supporting sustainable forest management policies. To date, few products are available that allow for continental to global operational monitoring of changes in canopy structure. In this study, we explored the synergy between the NASA’s spaceborne Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) waveform LiDAR and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data to produce spatially explicit and consistent annual maps of canopy height (CH), percent canopy cover (PCC), plant area index (PAI), and foliage height diversity (FHD) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) at a 1-km resolution for 2013–2020. The accuracies of the annual maps were assessed using forest structure attribute derived from airborne laser scanning (ALS) data acquired between 2013 and 2020 for the 48 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) field sites distributed across the CONUS. The root mean square error (RMSE) values of the annual canopy height maps as compared with the ALS reference data varied from a minimum of 3.31-m for 2020 to a maximum of 4.19-m for 2017. Similarly, the RMSE values for PCC ranged between 8% (2020) and 11% (all other years). Qualitative evaluations of the annual maps using time series of very high-resolution images further suggested that the VIIRS-derived products could capture both large and “more” subtle changes in forest structure associated with partial harvesting, wind damage, wildfires, and other environmental stresses. The methods developed in this study are expected to enable multi-decadal analysis of forest structure and its dynamics using consistent satellite observations from moderate resolution sensors such as VIIRS onboard JPSS satellites.

Valuing the Impact of Forest Disturbances on the Climate Regulation Service of Western U.S. Forests

The protection and expansion of forest carbon sinks are critical to achieving climate-change mitigation targets. Yet, the increasing frequency and severity of forest disturbances challenge the sustainable provision of forest services. We investigated patterns of forest disturbances’ impacts on carbon sinks by combining spatial datasets of forest carbon sequestration from biomass growth and emissions from fire and bark beetle damage in the western United States (U.S.) and valued the social costs of forest carbon losses. We also examined potential future trends of forest carbon sinks under two climate-change projections using a global vegetation model. We found that forest carbon losses from bark-beetle damage were larger than emissions from fires between 2003 and 2012. The cumulative social costs of forest carbon losses ranged from USD 7 billion to USD 72 billion, depending on the severity of global warming and the discount rate. Forest carbon stocks could increase around 5% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 or 7% under RCP 8.5 by 2091 relative to 2011 levels, mostly in forests with high net primary productivity. These results indicate that spatially explicit management of forest disturbances may increase forest carbon sinks, thereby improving opportunities to achieve critical climate-change mitigation goals.

Climate Analogues for Temperate European Forests to Raise Silvicultural Evidence Using Twin Regions

Climate analogues provide forestry practice with empirical evidence of how forests are managed in “twin” regions, i.e., regions where the current climate is comparable to the expected future climate at a site of interest. As the twin regions and their silvicultural evidence change with each climate scenario and model, we focus our investigation on how the uncertainty in future climate affects tree species prevalence. We calculate the future climate from 2000 to 2100 for three ensemble variants of the mild (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5) and hard (RCP 8.5) climate scenarios. We determine climatic distances between the future climate of our site of interest ‘Roth’ and the current climate in Europe, generating maps with twin regions from 2000 to 2100. From forest inventories in these twin regions we trace how the prevalence of 23 major tree species changes. We realize that it is not the ‘how’ but the ‘how fast’ species’ prevalence changes that differs between the scenario variants. We use this finding to develop a categorization of species groups that integrates the uncertainty in future climate. Twin regions provide further information on silvicultural practices, pest management, product chains etc.

Climate-Mediated Changes to Linked Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems across the Northeast Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Margin

Coastal margins are important areas of materials flux that link terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Consequently, climate-mediated changes to coastal terrestrial ecosystems and hydrologic regimes have high potential to influence nearshore ocean chemistry and food web dynamics. Research from tightly coupled, high-flux coastal ecosystems can advance understanding of terrestrial–marine links and climate sensitivities more generally. In the present article, we use the northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest as a model system to evaluate such links. We focus on key above- and belowground production and hydrological transport processes that control the land-to-ocean flow of materials and their influence on nearshore marine ecosystems. We evaluate how these connections may be altered by global climate change and we identify knowledge gaps in our understanding of the source, transport, and fate of terrestrial materials along this coastal margin. Finally, we propose five priority research themes in this region that are relevant for understanding coastal ecosystem links more broadly.

The impact of Hurricane Michael on longleaf pine habitats in Florida

Global biodiversity hotspots (GBHs) are increasingly vulnerable to human stressors such as anthropogenic climate change, which will alter the ecology of these habitats, even where protected. The longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem (LPE) of the North American Coastal Plain is a GBH where disturbances are integral for ecosystem maintenance. However, stronger storms due to climate change may be outside their historical norm. In this study, we estimate the extent of Florida LPE that was directly affected by Hurricane Michael in 2018, an unprecedented Category 5 storm. We then leveraged a unique data set in a Before-After study of four sites within this region. We used variable-area transects and generalized linear mixed-effects models to estimate tree densities and logistic regression to estimate mortality by size class. We found at least 28% of the global total remaining extent of LPE was affected in Florida alone. Mortality was highest in medium sized trees (30-45 cm dbh) and ranged from 4.6-15.4% at sites further from the storm center, but increased to 87.8% near the storm center. As the frequency and intensity of extreme events increases, management plans to mitigate climate change need to account for large-scale stochastic mortality events to preserve critical habitats.

Western Larch Regeneration Responds More Strongly to Site and Indirect Climate Factors Than to Direct Climate Factors

Substantial shifts in the distribution of western larch (Larix occidentalis Nutt.) are predicted during the coming decades in response to changing climatic conditions. However, it is unclear how the interplay between direct climate effects, such as warmer, drier conditions, and indirect climate effects, such as predicted increases in fire disturbance, will impact fire-adapted species such as western larch. The objectives of this study were (1) to compare the relative importance of stand, site, and indirect versus direct climatic factors in determining western larch seedling recruitment; (2) to determine whether seedling recruitment rates have changed in recent years in response to disturbance, post-fire weather, and/or climate; and (3) to determine whether seedlings and mature trees are experiencing niche differentiation based on recent climatic shifts. We addressed these objectives using data collected from 1286 national forest inventory plots in the US states of Idaho and Montana. We used statistical models to determine the relative importance of 35 stand, site, and climatic factors for larch seedling recruitment. Our results suggest that the most important predictors of larch seedling recruitment were indicative of early-seral stand conditions, and were often associated with recent fire disturbance and cutting. Despite indications of climatic niche compression, seedling recruitment rates have increased in recent decades, likely due to increased fire disturbance, and were unrelated to post-fire weather. Compared to sites occupied by mature trees, seedling recruitment was positively associated with cooler, drier climatic conditions, and particularly with cooler summer temperatures, but these climatic factors were generally less important than biotic stand variables such as stand age, basal area, and canopy cover. These results suggest that, for fire-dependent species such as western larch, increased heat and drought stress resulting from climatic change may be offset, at least in the near term, by an increase in early-seral stand conditions resulting from increased fire disturbance, although localized range contraction may occur at warm, dry extremes.

Investigating Banksia Coastal Woodland Decline Using Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing and Field-Based Monitoring Techniques

Coastal woodlands, notable for their floristic diversity and ecosystem service values, are increasingly under threat from a range of interacting biotic and abiotic stressors. Monitoring these complex ecosystems has traditionally been confined to field-scale vegetation surveys; however, remote sensing applications are increasingly becoming more viable. This study reports on the application of field-based monitoring and remote sensing/(Geographic Information System) GIS to interrogate trends in Banksia coastal woodland decline (Kings Park, Perth and Western Australia) and documents the patterns, and potential drivers, of tree mortality over the period 2012–2016. Application of geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) at a park scale was of limited benefit within the closed-canopy ecosystem, with manual digitisation methods feasible only at the smaller transect scale. Analysis of field-based identification of tree mortality, crown-specific spectral characteristics and park-scale change detection imagery identified climate-driven stressors as the likely primary driver of tree mortality in the woodland, with vegetation decline exacerbated by secondary factors, including water stress and low system resilience occasioned by the inability to access the water table and competition between tree species. The results from this paper provide a platform to inform monitoring efforts using airborne remote sensing within coastal woodlands.

Interaction exposure effects of multiple disturbances: plant population resilience to ungulate grazing is reduced by creation of canopy gaps

The impact of multiple disturbances on populations could be synergistic or antagonistic via disturbance interaction and are considered to be provoked by alternation of the impact of an ecosystem disturbance due to the effect of a preceding disturbance. The impact of a focal disturbance can also change when a preceding disturbance alters the proportion of individuals in a population exposed to these disturbances (i.e., interaction exposure effects), although this effect has not been addressed to date. Herein, we propose and test interaction exposure effects by elucidating disturbance interactions between canopy gap formation and ungulate grazing. Based on a vegetation and seed bank survey conducted on an island in Hokkaido, northern Japan, we examined whether canopy openness changes the impact of ungulate grazing on the occurrence probability of palatable plant species through the facilitation of germination. Species occurrence in the seed bank significantly decreased with increasing canopy openness under the presence of grazing; however, it slightly increased under the absence of grazing, suggesting that gap creation, which facilitates germination, exposes the seed bank to ungulate grazing. Because disturbances of various types often modify the habitat structure, these proposed disturbance interactions are expected to operate within various ecosystems and taxa.

Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus)

The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most important insect pest in Central European forests. Under climate change, its phenology is presumed to be changing and mass infestations becoming more likely. While several studies have investigated climate effects across a latitudinal gradient, it remains an open question how phenology will change depending on elevation and topology. Knowing how an altered climate is likely to affect bark beetle populations, particularly across diverse topographies and elevations, is essential for adaptive management. We developed a time-varying distributed delay model to predict the phenology of I. typographus. This approach has the particular advantage of capturing the variability within populations and thus representing its stage structure at any time. The model is applied for three regional climate change scenarios, A1B, A2 and RCP3PD, to the diverse topography of Switzerland, covering a large range of elevations, aspects and slopes. We found a strong negative relationship between voltinism and elevation. Under climate change, the model predicts an increasing number of generations over the whole elevational gradient, which will be more pronounced at low elevations. In contrast, the pre-shift in spring swarming is expected to be greater at higher elevations. In comparison, the general trend of faster beetle development on steep southern slopes is only of minor importance. Overall, the maximum elevation allowing a complete yearly generation will move upwards. Generally, the predicted increase in number of generations, earlier spring swarming, more aggregated swarming, together with a projected increase in drought and storm events, will result in a higher risk of mass infestations. This will increase the pressure on spruce stands particularly in the lowlands and require intensified management efforts. It calls for adapted long-term silvicultural strategies to mitigate the loss of ecosystem services such as timber production protection against rockfall and avalanches and carbon storage.

Dynamic Responses of Ground-Dwelling Invertebrate Communities to Disturbance in Forest Ecosystems

In forest ecosystems, natural and anthropogenic disturbances alter canopy structure, understory vegetation, amount of woody debris, and the properties of litter and soil layers. The magnitude of these environmental changes is context-dependent and determined by the properties of the disturbance, such as the frequency, intensity, duration, and extent. Therefore, disturbances can dynamically impact forest communities over time, including populations of ground-dwelling invertebrates that regulate key ecosystem processes. We propose conceptual models that describe the dynamic temporal effects of canopy gap formation and coarse woody debris accumulation following disturbances caused by invasive insects, wind, and salvage logging, and their impacts on ground-dwelling invertebrate communities. Within this framework, predictions are generated, literature on ground-dwelling invertebrate communities is synthesized, and pertinent knowledge gaps identified.

Spatial variability of tree species diversity in a mixed tropical forest in Southern Brazil

Floristic surveys and diversity indices are often applied to measure tree species diversity in mixed tropical forest remnants. However, these analyses are frequently limited to the overall results and do not allow to evaluate the spatial variability distributions of tree diversity, leading to develop additional tools. This study aimed to estimate the spatial variability of tree diversity and map their spatial patterns in a Brazilian mixed tropical forest conservation area. We used indices to measure the tree species diversity (dbh ≥ 10 cm) in 400 sampling units (25 m x 25 m) from a continuous forest inventory. Semivariograms were fitted to estimate spatial dependences and punctual kriging was applied to compose maps. Mean diversity values were constant in the continuous inventories, indicating a forest remnant in an advanced stage of ecological succession. On the other hand, tree diversity presented spatial patterns identified by geostatistics, in which the dynamics were composed of heterogeneous mosaics spatially influenced by tree species with different ecological features and densities, gap dynamics, advancement of forest succession, mortality, and Araucaria angustilofia's cohorts.

Assessment of ecosystem resilience to hydroclimatic disturbances in India

Recent studies have shown an increasing trend in hydroclimatic disturbances like droughts, which are anticipated to become more frequent and intense under global warming and climate change. Droughts adversely affect the vegetation growth and crop yield, which enhances the risks to food security for a country like India with over 1.2 billion people to feed. Here, we compared the response of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to hydroclimatic disturbances in India at different scales (i.e., at river basins, land covers, and climate types) to examine the ecosystems' resilience to such adverse conditions. The ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE_e : NPP/Evapotranspiration) is an effective indicator of ecosystem productivity, linking carbon (C) and water cycles. We found a significant difference (p < .05) in WUE_e across India at different scales. The ecosystem resilience analysis indicated that most of the river basins were not resilient enough to hydroclimatic disturbances. Drastic reduction in WUE_e under dry conditions was observed for some basins, which highlighted the cross-biome incapability to withstand such conditions. The ecosystem resilience at land cover and climate type scale did not completely relate to the basin-scale ecosystem resilience, which indicated that ecosystem resilience at basin scale is controlled by some other ecohydrological processes. Our results facilitate the identification of the most sensitive regions in the country for ecosystem management and climate policy making, and highlight the need for taking sufficient adaptation measures to ensure sustainability of ecosystems.

Assessment of ecosystem resilience to hydroclimatic disturbances in India

Recent studies have shown an increasing trend in hydroclimatic disturbances like droughts, which are anticipated to become more frequent and intense under global warming and climate change. Droughts adversely affect the vegetation growth and crop yield, which enhances the risks to food security for a country like India with over 1.2 billion people to feed. Here, we compared the response of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to hydroclimatic disturbances in India at different scales (i.e., at river basins, land covers, and climate types) to examine the ecosystems' resilience to such adverse conditions. The ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE_e : NPP/Evapotranspiration) is an effective indicator of ecosystem productivity, linking carbon (C) and water cycles. We found a significant difference (p < .05) in WUE_e across India at different scales. The ecosystem resilience analysis indicated that most of the river basins were not resilient enough to hydroclimatic disturbances. Drastic reduction in WUE_e under dry conditions was observed for some basins, which highlighted the cross-biome incapability to withstand such conditions. The ecosystem resilience at land cover and climate type scale did not completely relate to the basin-scale ecosystem resilience, which indicated that ecosystem resilience at basin scale is controlled by some other ecohydrological processes. Our results facilitate the identification of the most sensitive regions in the country for ecosystem management and climate policy making, and highlight the need for taking sufficient adaptation measures to ensure sustainability of ecosystems.

Responses of Ground-Dwelling Invertebrates to Gap Formation and Accumulation of Woody Debris from Invasive Species, Wind, and Salvage Logging

Natural and anthropogenic disturbances alter canopy structure, understory vegetation, amount of woody debris, and the litter and soil layers in forest ecosystems. These environmental changes impact forest communities, including ground-dwelling invertebrates that are key regulators of ecosystem processes. Variation in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial scale of disturbances affect the magnitude of these environmental changes and how forest communities and ecosystems are impacted over time. We propose conceptual models that describe the dynamic temporal effects of disturbance caused by invasive insects, wind, and salvage logging on canopy gap formation and accumulation of coarse woody debris (CWD), and their impacts on ground-dwelling invertebrate communities. In the context of this framework, predictions are generated and their implications for ground-dwelling invertebrate communities are discussed.

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

Assessing the anticipated growth response of northern conifer populations to a warming climate

The growth response of trees to ongoing climate change has important implications for future forest dynamics, accurate carbon accounting, and sustainable forest management. We used data from black spruce (Picea mariana) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) provenance trials, along with published data for three other northern conifers, to identify a consistent growth response to climate warming in which cold-origin populations are expected to benefit and warm-origin populations are expected to decline. Specifically, populations from across the geographic range of a species appear to grow well at temperatures characteristic of the southern portion of the range, indicating significant potential for a positive growth response to climate warming in cold-origin populations. Few studies have quantified and compared this pattern across multiple species using provenance data. We present a forest regeneration strategy that incorporates these anticipated growth responses to promote populations that are both local to the planting site and expected to grow well under climate change.

Coconut Lethal Yellowing Diseases: A Phytoplasma Threat to Palms of Global Economic and Social Significance

The recent discovery of Bogia coconut syndrome in Papua New Guinea (PNG) is the first report of a lethal yellowing disease (LYD) in Oceania. Numerous outbreaks of LYDs of coconut have been recorded in the Caribbean and Africa since the late Nineteenth century and have caused the death of millions of palms across several continents during the Twentieth century. Despite the severity of economic losses, it was only in the 1970s that the causes of LYDs were identified as phytoplasmas, a group of insect-transmitted bacteria associated with diseases in many other economically important crop species. Since the development of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology, knowledge of LYDs epidemiology, ecology and vectors has grown rapidly. There is no economically viable treatment for LYDs and vector-based management is hampered by the fact that vectors have been positively identified in very few cases despite many attempted transmission trials. Some varieties and hybrids of coconut palm are known to be less susceptible to LYD but none are completely resistant. Optimal and current management of LYD is through strict quarantine, prompt detection and destruction of symptomatic palms, and replanting with less susceptible varieties or crop species. Advances in technology such as loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) for detection and tracking of phytoplasma DNA in plants and insects, remote sensing for identifying symptomatic palms, and the advent of clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-based tools for gene editing and plant breeding are likely to allow rapid progress in taxonomy as well as understanding and managing LYD phytoplasma pathosystems.

Understanding context dependence in the contribution of intraspecific variation to community trait-environment matching

Intraspecific trait variation (ITV) plays a potentially important role in determining functional community composition across environmental gradients. However, the importance of ITV varies greatly among studies, and we lack a coherent understanding of the contexts under which to expect a high vs. low contribution of ITV to trait-environment matching among communities. Here we first elaborate a novel conceptual framework posing specific hypotheses and predictions about the environmental and ecological contexts underlying the contribution of ITV to community trait turnover. We then empirically test these predictions in understory herbaceous plant communities in a montane environment, for three functional traits (flowering phenology, specific leaf area, and height). We found that different components of trait variation mapped onto different environmental axes, specifically reporting a greater contribution of ITV along non-climatic axes (e.g., soil properties, light) than along the main climatic axis (i.e., elevation), as predicted by the hypothesis that phenotypic plasticity (a major source of ITV) is greatest in response to conditions varying at a small spatial scale. Based on a variant of the niche-variation hypothesis, we predicted that the importance of ITV would be greatest in the lowest-diversity portion of the elevational gradient (i.e., at high elevation), but this prediction was not supported. Finally, the generally strong intraspecific responses to the gradient observed across species did not necessarily give rise to a high contribution of ITV (or vice versa) given (1) an especially weak or strong response of a dominant species driving the community-level trend, (2) differences among species in the direction of trait-environment response cancelling out, or (3) relatively narrow portions of the gradient where individual species abundances were high enough to have an important impact on community-level trait means. Our research identifies contexts in which we can predict that local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity will play a relatively large role in mediating community-level trait responses to environmental change.

Remote sensing analysis of vegetation recovery following short-interval fires in Southern California shrublands

Increased fire frequency has been shown to promote alien plant invasions in the western United States, resulting in persistent vegetation type change. Short interval fires are widely considered to be detrimental to reestablishment of shrub species in southern California chaparral, facilitating the invasion of exotic annuals and producing "type conversion". However, supporting evidence for type conversion has largely been at local, site scales and over short post-fire time scales. Type conversion has not been shown to be persistent or widespread in chaparral, and past range improvement studies present evidence that chaparral type conversion may be difficult and a relatively rare phenomenon across the landscape. With the aid of remote sensing data covering coastal southern California and a historical wildfire dataset, the effects of short interval fires (<8 years) on chaparral recovery were evaluated by comparing areas that burned twice to adjacent areas burned only once. Twelve pairs of once- and twice-burned areas were compared using normalized burn ratio (NBR) distributions. Correlations between measures of recovery and explanatory factors (fire history, climate and elevation) were analyzed by linear regression. Reduced vegetation cover was found in some lower elevation areas that were burned twice in short interval fires, where non-sprouting species are more common. However, extensive type conversion of chaparral to grassland was not evident in this study. Most variables, with the exception of elevation, were moderately or poorly correlated with differences in vegetation recovery.

Changes in forest biomass and linkage to climate and forest disturbances over Northeastern China

The forests of northeastern China store nearly half of the country's total biomass carbon stocks. In this study, we investigated the changes in forest biomass by using satellite observations and found that a significant increase in forest biomass took place between 2001 and 2010. To determine the possible reasons for this change, several statistical methods were used to analyze the correlations between forest biomass dynamics and forest disturbances (i.e. fires, insect damage, logging, and afforestation and reforestation), climatic factors, and forest development. Results showed that forest development was the most important contributor to the increasing trend of forest biomass from 2001 to 2010, and climate controls were the secondary important factor. Among the four types of forest disturbance considered in this study, forest recovery from fires, and afforestation and reforestation during the past few decades played an important role in short-term biomass dynamics. This study provided observational evidence and valuable information for the relationships between forest biomass and climate as well as forest disturbances.

Experimental warming studies on tree species and forest ecosystems: a literature review

Temperature affects a cascade of ecological processes and functions of forests. With future higher global temperatures being inevitable it is critical to understand and predict how forest ecosystems and tree species will respond. This paper reviews experimental warming studies in boreal and temperate forests or tree species beyond the direct effects of higher temperature on plant ecophysiology by scaling up to forest level responses and considering the indirect effects of higher temperature. In direct response to higher temperature (1) leaves emerged earlier and senesced later, resulting in a longer growing season (2) the abundance of herbivorous insects increased and their performance was enhanced and (3) soil nitrogen mineralization and leaf litter decomposition were accelerated. Besides these generalizations across species, plant ecophysiological traits were highly species-specific. Moreover, we showed that the effect of temperature on photosynthesis is strongly dependent on the position of the leaf or plant within the forest (canopy or understory) and the time of the year. Indirect effects of higher temperature included among others higher carbon storage in trees due to increased soil nitrogen availability and changes in insect performance due to alterations in plant ecophysiological traits. Unfortunately only a few studies extrapolated results to forest ecosystem level and considered the indirect effects of higher temperature. Thus more intensive, long-term studies are needed to further confirm the emerging trends shown in this review. Experimental warming studies provide us with a useful tool to examine the cascade of ecological processes in forest ecosystems that will change with future higher temperature.

Dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates in three Mediterranean woody species following long-term experimental drought

Stored non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) have been proposed as a key determinant of drought resistance in plants. However, the evidence for this role is controversial, as it comes mostly from observational, short-term studies. Here, we take advantage of a long-term experimental throughfall reduction to elucidate the response of NSC to increased drought 14 years after the beginning of the treatment in three Mediterranean resprouter trees (Quercus ilex L., Arbutus unedo L. and Phillyrea latifolia L.). In addition, we selected 20 Q. ilex individuals outside the experimental plots to directly assess the relationship between defoliation and NSC at the individual level. We measured the seasonal course of NSC concentrations in leaves, branches and lignotuber in late winter, late spring, summer, and autumn 2012. Total concentrations of NSC were highest in the lignotuber for all species. In the long-term drought experiment we found significant depletion in concentrations of total NSC in treatment plots only in the lignotuber of A. unedo. At the same time, A. unedo was the only species showing a significant reduction in BAI under the drought treatment during the 14 years of the experiment. By contrast, Q. ilex just reduced stem growth only during the first 4 years of treatment and P. latifolia remained unaffected over the whole study period. However, we found a clear association between the concentrations of NSC and defoliation in Q. ilex individuals sampled outside the experimental plots, with lower total concentrations of NSC and lower proportion of starch in defoliated individuals. Taken together, our results suggest that stabilizing processes, probably at the stand level, may have been operating in the long-term to mitigate any impact of drought on NSC levels, and highlight the necessity to incorporate long-term experimental studies of plant responses to drought.

The roles of hydraulic and carbon stress in a widespread climate-induced forest die-off

Forest ecosystems store approximately 45% of the carbon found in terrestrial ecosystems, but they are sensitive to climate-induced dieback. Forest die-off constitutes a large uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, climate-ecosystem interactions, and carbon-cycle feedbacks. Current understanding of the physiological mechanisms mediating climate-induced forest mortality limits the ability to model or project these threshold events. We report here a direct and in situ study of the mechanisms underlying recent widespread and climate-induced trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) forest mortality in western North America. We find substantial evidence of hydraulic failure of roots and branches linked to landscape patterns of canopy and root mortality in this species. On the contrary, we find no evidence that drought stress led to depletion of carbohydrate reserves. Our results illuminate proximate mechanisms underpinning recent aspen forest mortality and provide guidance for understanding and projecting forest die-offs under climate change.

A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States

Using forests to mitigate climate change has gained much interest in science and policy discussions. We examine the evidence for carbon benefits, environmental and monetary costs, risks and trade-offs for a variety of activities in three general strategies: (1) land use change to increase forest area (afforestation) and avoid deforestation; (2) carbon management in existing forests; and (3) the use of wood as biomass energy, in place of other building materials, or in wood products for carbon storage. We found that many strategies can increase forest sector carbon mitigation above the current 162-256 Tg C/yr, and that many strategies have co-benefits such as biodiversity, water, and economic opportunities. Each strategy also has trade-offs, risks, and uncertainties including possible leakage, permanence, disturbances, and climate change effects. Because approximately 60% of the carbon lost through deforestation and harvesting from 1700 to 1935 has not yet been recovered and because some strategies store carbon in forest products or use biomass energy, the biological potential for forest sector carbon mitigation is large. Several studies suggest that using these strategies could offset as much as 10-20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions. To obtain such large offsets in the United States would require a combination of afforesting up to one-third of cropland or pastureland, using the equivalent of about one-half of the gross annual forest growth for biomass energy, or implementing more intensive management to increase forest growth on one-third of forestland. Such large offsets would require substantial trade-offs, such as lower agricultural production and non-carbon ecosystem services from forests. The effectiveness of activities could be diluted by negative leakage effects and increasing disturbance regimes. Because forest carbon loss contributes to increasing climate risk and because climate change may impede regeneration following disturbance, avoiding deforestation and promoting regeneration after disturbance should receive high priority as policy considerations. Policies to encourage programs or projects that influence forest carbon sequestration and offset fossil fuel emissions should also consider major items such as leakage, the cyclical nature of forest growth and regrowth, and the extensive demand for and movement of forest products globally, and other greenhouse gas effects, such as methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and recognize other environmental benefits of forests, such as biodiversity, nutrient management, and watershed protection. Activities that contribute to helping forests adapt to the effects of climate change, and which also complement forest carbon storage strategies, would be prudent.

Canopy stomatal conductance following drought, disturbance, and death in an upland oak/pine forest of the new jersey pine barrens, USA

Stomatal conductance controls carbon and water fluxes in forest ecosystems. Therefore, its accurate characterization in land-surface flux models is necessary. Sap-flux scaled canopy conductance was used to evaluate the effect of drought, disturbance, and mortality of three oak species (Quercus prinus, Q. velutina, and Q. coccinea) in an upland oak/pine stand in the New Jersey Pine Barrens from 2005 to 2008. Canopy conductance (G(C)) was analyzed by performing boundary line analysis and selecting for the highest value under a given light condition. Regressing G(C) with the driving force vapor pressure deficit (VPD) resulted in reference canopy conductance at 1 kPa VPD (G(Cref)). Predictably, drought in 2006 caused G(Cref) to decline. Q. prinusG(Cref) was least affected, followed by Q. coccinea, with Q. velutina having the highest reductions in G(Cref). A defoliation event in 2007 caused G(Cref) to increase due to reduced leaf area and a possible increase in water availability. In Q. prinus, G(Cref) quadrupled, while doubling in Q. velutina, and increasing by 50% in Q. coccinea. Tree mortality in 2008 led to higher G(Cref) in the remaining Q. prinus but not in Q. velutina or Q. coccinea. Comparing light response curves of canopy conductance (G(Cref)) and stomatal conductance (g(S)) derived from gas-exchange measurements showed marked differences in behavior. Canopy G(Cref) failed to saturate under ambient light conditions whereas leaf-level g(S) saturated at 1,200 μmol m(-2) s(-1). The results presented here emphasize the differential responses of leaf and canopy-level conductance to saturating light conditions and the effects of various disturbances (drought, defoliation, and mortality) on the carbon and water balance of an oak-dominated forest.

Modeling transient response of forests to climate change

Our hypothesis is that a high diversity of dominant life forms in Tennessee forests conveys resilience to disturbance such as climate change. Because of uncertainty in climate change and their effects, three climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to simulate a range of potential climate conditions for the state. These climate changes derive from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "A1B" storyline that assumes rapid global economic growth. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in five ecological provinces using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1km cell across the state as aggregated into the provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation differences from the long-term average are more complex but less striking. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions for five ecological provinces from 1989 to 2300. Average output projects changes in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces in Tennessee with the greatest changes in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Projected declines in total tree biomass are followed by biomass recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The Southern Mixed Forest province results in less diversity in dominant trees as well as lower overall biomass than projections for the other four provinces. The biomass and composition changes projected in this study differ from forest dynamics expected without climate change. These results suggest that biomass recovery following climate change is linked to dominant tree diversity in the southeastern forest of the US. The generality of this observation warrants further investigation, for it relates to ways that forest management may influence climate change effects.

Modelling vegetation greenness responses to climate variability in a Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystem

This work presents a modelling study where monthly-based climate data are used to estimate the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The latter is a measure of vegetation greenness, usually derived from satellite-driven information. A model was developed to link NDVI data to rainfall and temperature measures. The test area was a 3 x 3 km grid centred to the top of Monte Pino hill (Southern Italy), for which multi-year (from 1996 to 2004) climate and satellite-derived NDVI data were available. The simulated NDVI data compared well with the remote-sensed measurements (e.g. modelling efficiency approximately 0.80), thus showing a strong linking between vegetation greenness and climate patterns in spite of the many disturbances exerted from farming. The model was used to reconstruct an extended series of monthly NDVI values for a period antecedent 1996 (1972-1995). The analysis of long-term anomalies indicated a positive trend of NDVI over time, consistent with the air temperature increase registered in the same period.

Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?

Severe droughts have been associated with regional-scale forest mortality worldwide. Climate change is expected to exacerbate regional mortality events; however, prediction remains difficult because the physiological mechanisms underlying drought survival and mortality are poorly understood. We developed a hydraulically based theory considering carbon balance and insect resistance that allowed development and examination of hypotheses regarding survival and mortality. Multiple mechanisms may cause mortality during drought. A common mechanism for plants with isohydric regulation of water status results from avoidance of drought-induced hydraulic failure via stomatal closure, resulting in carbon starvation and a cascade of downstream effects such as reduced resistance to biotic agents. Mortality by hydraulic failure per se may occur for isohydric seedlings or trees near their maximum height. Although anisohydric plants are relatively drought-tolerant, they are predisposed to hydraulic failure because they operate with narrower hydraulic safety margins during drought. Elevated temperatures should exacerbate carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Biotic agents may amplify and be amplified by drought-induced plant stress. Wet multidecadal climate oscillations may increase plant susceptibility to drought-induced mortality by stimulating shifts in hydraulic architecture, effectively predisposing plants to water stress. Climate warming and increased frequency of extreme events will probably cause increased regional mortality episodes. Isohydric and anisohydric water potential regulation may partition species between survival and mortality, and, as such, incorporating this hydraulic framework may be effective for modeling plant survival and mortality under future climate conditions.

Human influence on California fire regimes

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation.