Tracking the 2022 monkeypox outbreak with epidemiological data in real-time

Evaluation of analytical performance of the STANDARDTM M10 MPX/OPX assay for the simultaneous DNA detection and clade attribution of Monkeypox virus

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection confirmation needs reliable polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays; in addition, viral clade attribution is a key factor in containment measures, considering a more severe syndrome in clade I and the possibility of simultaneous circulation. This study evaluates the performance of all-in-one STANDARD M10 MPX/OPX (SD BIOSENSOR, South Korea - M10). Frozen samples from 205 subjects were selected and stratified according to routine test results (RealStar® Orthopoxvirus PCR Kit 1.0, Altona DIAGNOTICS, Germany - RS; RS-1): in detail, 100 negative skin lesions (SL) and 200 positive samples at the variable stage of infection were analysed. Positive samples were retested with RS (RS-2). Positive and Negative Percent Agreements (PPA, NPA) were calculated. The median (IQR) Ct values of RS and M10 (OPXV target) assays were highly similar. The PPA of M10 compared to RS-1 was 89.5% considering system interpretation, and 96.0% when the operator classified results as positive if any target was detected; NPA was 100%. Comparing the RS-2 run and M10, an overall concordance of 95.3% between assays was found; however, considering operator interpretation, M10 returned more positive results than RS-2. The occurrence of False-Negative results was likely associated with the influence of thawing on low viral concentration; no False-Positive tests were observed. All samples collected at the time of Mpox diagnosis were positive and M10 correctly attributed the clade (West-Africa/II). The M10 MPX/OPX assay demonstrated high reliability in confirming MPXV infection and clade attribution.

Global transboundary transmission path and risk of Mpox revealed with Least Cost Path model

OBJECTIVES

The recent surge of Mpox outbreaks in multiple countries has garnered global attention. As of July 12, 2023, there have been 88,288 reported cases of Mpox worldwide. Although genetic variation was not found to be the cause of the epidemic outbreak, the reasons for its rapid spread remain unclear.

METHODS

Using the niche method, this study identified high-risk regions for Mpox and determined that human factors are the primary contributors to global risks. To further investigate, a travel network resistance surface was created based on various modes of transportation and was combined with sea, airline, highway, and railway routes to construct the least cost path for human travel networks in different risk areas.

RESULTS

The results indicated that high-risk regions for Mpox are mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States, with large risk ranges and high-risk values. The least cost path revealed three primary transmission paths rely on developed transportation networks, including internal transmission in North America, Europe-Africa, and Europe-Asia-Africa. These findings suggest that human activities, facilitated by developed travel networks, remain the main contributing factor to the spread.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, based on the Mpox epidemic report, this study conducted risk prediction and driving factor analysis on Mpox. The research results indicate that human use of transportation for long-distance activities is a key factor leading to the rapid spread of the virus. Subsequently, we focused on studying the global transmission pathways of Mpox and revealed several transmission pathways with high global population migration rates by constructing the LCPs between different high-risk areas. This study also emphasizes the importance of applying early monitoring data of Mpox to model risk prediction in controlling emerging infectious diseases, providing a new perspective for controlling Mpox and similar diseases.

Evolutionary trajectory and characteristics of Mpox virus in 2023 based on a large-scale genomic surveillance in Shenzhen, China

The global epidemic of Mpox virus (MPXV) continues, and a local outbreak has occurred in Shenzhen city since June 2023. Herein, the evolutionary trajectory and characteristics of MPXV in 2023 were analyzed using 92 MPXV sequences from the Shenzhen outbreak and the available genomes from GISAID and GenBank databases. Phylogenetic tracing of the 92 MPXVs suggests that MPXVs in Shenzhen may have multiple sources of importation, and two main transmission chains have been established. The combination of phylogenetic relationships, epidemiological features, and mutation characteristics supports the emergence of a new lineage C.1.1. Together with the B.1 lineage diverging from the A.1 lineage, C.1.1 lineage diverging from the C.1 lineage may serve as another significant evolutionary events of MPXV. Moreover, increasing apolipoprotein B mRNA-editing catalytic polypeptide-like 3 (APOBEC3) related mutations, higher rate of missense mutations, and less mutations in the non-coding regions have been shown during MPXV evolution. Host regulation proteins of MPXV have accumulated considerable amino acid mutations since the B.1 lineage, and a lineage-defining APOBEC3-related mutation that disrupts the N2L gene encoding a viral innate immune modulator has been identified in the C.1.1 lineage. In summary, our study provides compelling evidence for the ongoing evolution of MPXV with specific features.

Knowledge and attitude towards mpox: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The increase in mpox incidence underscores the crucial need to understand and effectively address prevention, early detection, and agile response to this disease. Therefore, the present study aims to determine the knowledge and attitude towards mpox.

METHODS

A systematic review and comprehensive literature meta-analysis were conducted using prominent databases such as PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, and ScienceDirect, with an updated search until June 25, 2023. The quality of the included observational studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute's Statistical Meta-Analysis Review Instrument. The collected data were recorded in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, and analyses were conducted using R software version 4.2.3. Additionally, Cochran's Q statistics were applied to assess the heterogeneity of the included studies.

RESULTS

A total of 299 articles were retrieved from 5 databases. This study included 27 cross-sectional articles with a total sample of 22,327 participants, of which 57.13% were women. The studies were conducted in 15 countries through an online survey. All studies had a moderate level of quality. The combined prevalence of a good level of knowledge about mpox was 33% (95% CI: 22%-45%; 22,327 participants; 27 studies; I2 = 100%), and the combined prevalence of a positive attitude towards mpox was 40% (95% CI: 19%-62%; 2,979 participants; 6 studies; I2 = 99%). Additionally, as a secondary outcome, the combined prevalence of the intention to vaccinate against mpox was 58% (95% CI: 37%-78%; 2,932 participants; 7 studies; I2 = 99%).

CONCLUSION

Good knowledge and a positive attitude towards mpox were found to be low. The findings of this study highlight the need to identify gaps and focus on implementing educational programs on mpox.

TERMS USED

Joanna Briggs Institute Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument (JBI-MAStARI), Prospective International Registry of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO), and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA).

Profiling of viral load, antibody and inflammatory response of people with monkeypox during hospitalization: a prospective longitudinal cohort study in China

BACKGROUND

The dynamics of viral shedding and the specific humoral response against monkeypox virus (MPXV) have not been well characterized in patients across their disease course during hospitalisation. The aim of this study was to determine the viral load and the levels of antibodies against MPXV using longitudinal paired-collected samples from hospitalized patients.

METHODS

Patients who were hospitalised with mpox were recruited at Beijing Ditan Hospital Capital Medical University in China between June 2 and September 23, 2023. Paired samples, including samples from skin lesions, the oropharynx, saliva, faeces, urine, plasma, and serum, were serially collected at days 1, 3, 7, and 14 after admission until discharge. Not all of the patients had samples obtained at all of the timepoints. All the samples were analysed via quantitative PCR. Virus isolation was performed by using clinical samples and Vero cells. The presence of IgM, IgA, IgG, and neutralising antibodies (NAbs) against MPXV was evaluated. The first collected plasma sample was taken when the patient was hospitalised, and the levels of cytokines and chemokines were measured in the sample. The demographic data, smallpox vaccination status, history of known exposure to MPVX, HIV status and other clinical data were collected using a standard case report form.

FINDINGS

A total of 510 specimens were serially collected from 39 recruited people with mpox. Among all the samples, the skin lesions had the highest viral DNA detection rates and viral loads, and the saliva samples had the second highest rates and viral loads. One day before discharge, 85% of the dry scrabs (median Ct 28.2, range 19.0-38.3) and 70% of the saliva samples (median Ct 32.4, range 24.5-38.1) were positive for viral DNA, Of which, 23.1% of dry scrabs were positive in viral culture. The rate of viral DNA detection in the oropharyngeal, saliva, and faecal samples decreased with time, while the rates in the plasma, serum, and urine samples increased quickly before 10 days post symptom onset (PSO). The median days of appearance of MPXV-IgM, MPXV-IgA, MPXV-IgG, and NAb were at 8 (interquartile range [IQR] 7-9), 9 (7-10), 12 (9-15), and 12 (9-15) PSO, respectively. The IgM, IgA, IgG, and NAb titres increased with time. Between days 11 and 21 PSO, the NAb titres were lower in people living with HIV (PWH) than in people living without HIV (PWOH). Increased NAb titres were associated with decreased viral loads in the saliva (r = 0.28, p = 0.025), faeces (r = 0.35, p = 0.021), plasma (r = 0.30, p = 0.0044), and serum samples (r = 0.37, p = 0.001). Compared with PWOH, PWH had higher plasma levels of MIP-1α, MIP-1β, G-CSF, IL-4, and FGF-basic.

INTERPRETATION

The high positive viral culture rate of clinical samples of patients when they are discharged from the hospital indicates that effective public health management strategies are needed for people with mpox. The low NAb titres and high levels of cytokines in PWH shows that earlier treatment is needed to control inflammation in high-risk populations.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities for Peking Union Medical College, National Key R&D Program of China.

Retrospective Monkeypox Virus Surveillance Among Male Users of I Want the Kit in Maryland, United States

Retrospective surveillance leveraging male rectal swab sample remnants from I Want the Kit from July 2021 through October 2023 identified 1 symptomatic and 1 asymptomatic mpox case at the peak of transmission in 2022. Although sporadic cases continue to be reported in Maryland, additional asymptomatic cases were not identified in this leveraged surveillance.

Assessing healthcare workers' confidence level in diagnosing and managing emerging infectious virus of human mpox in hospitals in Amhara Region, Northwest Ethiopia: multicentre institution-based cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To assess healthcare workers' (HCWs) confidence level in diagnosing and managing mpox disease and its associated factors in hospitals in the Amhara Region.

DESIGN

Institution-based cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Hospitals in the Amhara Region, Northwest Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 640 HCWs, with a response rate of 96.9%, participated from 1 October to 30 December 2022. A multistage stratified random sampling technique with proportional allocation was used to recruit study participants. Data were collected using the KoboCollect toolbox and exported to STATA V.17 for analysis. Descriptive statistics were used to describe data. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of confidence level to diagnose and manage mpox at p<0.05.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

HCWs' confidence level in diagnosing and managing mpox disease and its associated factors.

RESULTS

The overall proportion of HCWs who had high confidence level in diagnosing and managing mpox disease was found to be 31.5% (95% CI: 27.9%, 35.2%). Similarly, 26.8% (95% CI: 23.2%, 30.3%) and 41.8% (95% CI: 38.1%, 45.4%) of HCWs expressed medium and low confidence level to diagnose and manage the disease, respectively. The odds of higher confidence versus lower or medium confidence level in diagnosing and managing mpox were greater for HCWs who regularly visit amenable websites (adjusted OR (AOR)=1.59, 95% CI: 1.16, 2.2), were physicians (AOR=1.9, 95% CI: 1.32, 2.73), were aged 30-35 years old (AOR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.39), had got public health emergency epidemic disease management training (AOR=2.8, 95% CI: 1.94, 4.04) and had positive attitudes (AOR=1.72, 95% CI: 1.26, 2.36) compared with their counterparts.

CONCLUSION

The overall confidence level of HCWs in diagnosing and managing mpox disease in the study area was low. Therefore, the HCWs should be regularly updated about mpox disease through morning sessions and training in the diagnosis and clinical management of mpox disease including infection prevention and control.

Monkeypox infection and pregnancy in lower and middle-income countries: Precautions & recommendations

Monkeypox (MPX), an orthopoxviral disease endemic in Africa, is now a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) as declared by the World Health Organization in July 2023. Although it is generally mild, the overall case fatality rate was reported to be 3%, and the basic reproduction number (R0) is > 1 in men who have sex with men (MSM, i.e., Portugal (1.4), the United Kingdom (1.6), and Spain (1.8)). However, R0 is < 1 in other settings. In concordance with the smallpox virus, it is also expected to increase the risk of adverse outcomes for both the mother and the fetus. The outcomes of the disease in an immunocompromised state of pregnancy are scary, showing high mortality and morbidity of both mother and fetus, with up to a 75% risk of fetal side effects and a 25% risk of severe maternal diseases. Therefore, it warrants timely diagnosis and intervention. The reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT PCR) test is the standard approach to diagnosis. We summarized the recent findings of MPX on pregnancy, and the associated risk factors. We also give recommendations for active fetal surveillance, perinatal care, and good reporting to improve outcomes. The available vaccines have shown promise for primary disease prevention.

Global Mpox spread due to increased air travel

Mpox is an emerging, infectious disease that has caused outbreaks in at least 91 countries from May to August 2022. We assessed the link between international air travel patterns and Mpox transmission risk, and the relationship between the translocation of Mpox and human mobility dynamics after travel restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic had been lifted. Our three novel observations were that: i) more people traveled internationally after the removal of travel restrictions in the summer of 2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels; ii) countries with a high concentration of global air travel have the most recorded Mpox cases; and iii) Mpox transmission includes a number of previously nonendemic regions. These results suggest that international airports should be a primary location for monitoring the risk of emerging communicable diseases. Findings highlight the need for global collaboration concerning proactive measures emphasizing realtime surveillance.

Adapting an artificial intelligence sexually transmitted diseases symptom checker tool for Mpox detection: the HeHealth experience

Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications have shown promise in the management of pandemics. In response to the global Monkeypox (Mpox) outbreak, the HeHealth.ai team leveraged an existing tool to screen for sexually transmitted diseases (STD) to develop a digital screening test for symptomatic Mpox using AI. Before the global Mpox outbreak, the team developed a smartphone app (HeHealth) where app users can use a smartphone to photograph their own penises to screen for symptomatic STD. The AI model initially used 5000 cases and a modified convolutional neural network to output prediction scores across visually diagnosable penis pathologies including syphilis, herpes simplex virus, and human papillomavirus. A total of about 22,000 users had downloaded the HeHealth app, and ~21,000 images were analysed using HeHealth AI technology. We then used formative research, stakeholder engagement, rapid consolidation images, a validation study, and implementation of the tool. A total of 1000 Mpox-related images had been used to train the Mpox symptom checker tool. Based on an internal validation, our digital symptom checker tool showed specificity of 87% and sensitivity of 90% for symptomatic Mpox. Several hurdles identified included issues of data privacy and security for app users, initial lack of data to train the AI tool, and the potential generalisability of input data. We offer several suggestions to help others get started on similar projects in emergency situations, including engaging a wide range of stakeholders, having a multidisciplinary team, prioritising pragmatism, as well as the concept that 'big data' in fact is made up of 'small data'.

Reverse Zoonotic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and Monkeypox Virus: A Comprehensive Review

Reverse zoonosis reveals the process of transmission of a pathogen through the human-animal interface and the spillback of the zoonotic pathogen. In this article, we methodically demonstrate various aspects of reverse zoonosis, with a comprehensive discussion of SARS-CoV-2 and MPXV reverse zoonosis. First, different components of reverse zoonosis, such as humans, different pathogens, and numerous animals (poultry, livestock, pets, wild animals, and zoo animals), have been demonstrated. Second, it explains the present status of reverse zoonosis with different pathogens during previous occurrences of various outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. Here, we present 25 examples from literature. Third, using several examples, we comprehensively illustrate the present status of the reverse zoonosis of SARS-CoV-2 and MPXV. Here, we have provided 17 examples of SARS-CoV-2 reverse zoonosis and two examples of MPXV reverse zoonosis. Fourth, we have described two significant aspects of reverse zoonosis: understanding the fundamental aspects of spillback and awareness. These two aspects are required to prevent reverse zoonosis from the current infection with two significant viruses. Finally, the One Health approach was discussed vividly, where we urge scientists from different areas to work collaboratively to solve the issue of reverse zoonosis.

Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern

The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that about 60% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, originating from spillover events. Although the mechanisms behind spillover events remain unclear, mathematical modeling offers a way to understand the intricate interactions among pathogens, wildlife, humans, and their shared environment. Aiming at gaining insights into the dynamics of spillover events and the outcome of an eventual disease outbreak in a population, we propose a continuous time stochastic modeling framework. This framework links the dynamics of animal reservoirs and human hosts to simulate cross-species disease transmission. We conduct a thorough analysis of the model followed by numerical experiments that explore various spillover scenarios. The results suggest that although most epidemic outbreaks caused by novel zoonotic pathogens do not persist in the human population, the rising number of spillover events can avoid long-lasting extinction and lead to unexpected large outbreaks. Hence, global efforts to reduce the impacts of emerging diseases should not only address post-emergence outbreak control but also need to prevent pandemics before they are established.

A theory-based assessment of mpox: Findings from a nationally representative survey of U.S. adults

The purpose of this research was to examine individual differences related to fear of, perceived susceptibility to, and perceived severity of mpox as well as mpox knowledge, fear, perceived susceptibility, and perceived severity as predictors of vaccine intention in a national survey of U.S. adults (aged ≥18 years). Address-based sampling (ABS) methods were used to ensure full coverage of all households in the nation, reflecting the 2021 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey. Internet-based surveys were self-administered by Ipsos between September 16-26, 2022. N = 1018 participants completed the survey. The survey included items, based partially on the Health Belief Model, assessing vaccine intention (1 item; responses from 1 [Definitely not] to 5 [Definitely]), fear of mpox (7-item scale; α = .89; theoretical mean = 7-35), perceived susceptibility to mpox (3-item scale; α = .85; theoretical mean = 3-15), and perceived severity of mpox (4-item scale; α = .65; theoretical mean = 4-20). Higher scores indicate greater fear, susceptibility, and severity. One-way ANOVAs were run to examine mean score differences by demographic groups (e.g., gender, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation), and multiple regression analyses assessed the relationship between predictors (mpox knowledge, susceptibility/severity, fear) and a single outcome (vaccination intention), while controlling for demographic covariates. Sampling weights were applied to all analyses. Only 1.8% (n = 18) of respondents reported having received the mpox vaccine. While mpox vaccine intention was low (M = 2.09, SD = 0.99), overall differences between racial/ethnic, sexual orientation, education, and household income groups were statistically significant. Fear of mpox was very low (M = 13.13, SD = 5.33), and there were overall statistically significant differences in both fear and perceived severity among gender, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, education, and household income groups. While respondents reported not feeling very susceptible to mpox (M = 5.77, SD = 2.50), they generally rated mpox as just above the theoretical mean in terms of severity (M = 11.01, SD = 2.85). Mpox knowledge, fear, severity, and susceptibility, as well as race/ethnicity, were all statistically significant predictors of intention to vaccinate, with susceptibility representing the strongest predictor. Overall, Americans' vaccination for mpox/vaccine intent was low. Gay/lesbian and racial/ethnic minority respondents felt more susceptible to and viewed mpox more severely, compared with heterosexual and White respondents, respectively. These data may be used to tailor risk and prevention (e.g., vaccination) interventions, as cases continue to surge in the current global mpox outbreak. Greater perceptions of susceptibility, severity, and fear about mpox exist largely among minority populations. While public health messaging to promote mpox vaccination can focus on improving knowledge, as well as addressing fear and perceived severity of, and susceptibility to, mpox, such messages should be carefully crafted to prevent disproportionate negative effects on marginalized communities.

Time Scales of Human Mpox Transmission in The Netherlands

Mpox has spread rapidly to many countries in nonendemic regions. After reviewing detailed exposure histories of 109 pairs of mpox cases in the Netherlands, we identified 34 pairs where transmission was likely and the infectee reported a single potential infector with a mean serial interval of 10.1 days (95% credible interval, 6.6-14.7 days). Further investigation into pairs from 1 regional public health service revealed that presymptomatic transmission may have occurred in 5 of 18 pairs. These findings emphasize that precaution remains key, regardless of the presence of recognizable symptoms of mpox.

Molecular and phylogenetic characterization of the monkeypox outbreak in the South of Spain

Background and Aim

Until the May 2022 Monkeypox (MPXV) outbreak, which spread rapidly to many non-endemic countries, the virus was considered a viral zoonosis limited to some African countries. The Andalusian circuit of genomic surveillance was rapidly applied to characterize the MPXV outbreak in the South of Spain.

Methods

Whole genome sequencing was used to obtain the genomic profiles of samples collected across the south of Spain, representative of all the provinces of Andalusia. Phylogenetic analysis was used to study the relationship of the isolates and the available sequences of the 2022 outbreak.

Results

Whole genome sequencing of a total of 160 MPXV viruses from the different provinces that reported cases were obtained. Interestingly, we report the sequences of MPXV viruses obtained from two patients who died. While one of the isolates bore no noteworthy mutations that explain a potential heightened virulence, in another patient the second consecutive genome sequence, performed after the administration of tecovirimat, uncovered a mutation within the A0A7H0DN30 gene, known to be a prime target for tecovirimat in its Vaccinia counterpart. In general, a low number of mutations were observed in the sequences reported, which were very similar to the reference of the 2022 outbreak (OX044336), as expected from a DNA virus. The samples likely correspond to several introductions of the circulating MPXV viruses from the last outbreak. The virus sequenced from one of the two patients that died presented a mutation in a gene that bears potential connections to drug resistance. This mutation was absent in the initial sequencing before treatment.

The risk of mpox importation and subsequent outbreak potential in Chinese mainland: a retrospective statistical modelling study

BACKGROUND

The 2022-2023 mpox (monkeypox) outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region, mainly among men who have sex with men (MSM). In this study, we aimed to evaluate mpox's importation risk, border screening effectiveness and the risk of local outbreak in Chinese mainland.

METHODS

We estimated the risk of mpox importation in Chinese mainland from April 14 to September 11, 2022 using the number of reported mpox cases during this multi-country outbreak from Global.health and the international air-travel data from Official Aviation Guide. We constructed a probabilistic model to simulate the effectiveness of a border screening scenario during the mpox outbreak and a hypothetical scenario with less stringent quarantine requirement. And we further evaluated the mpox outbreak potential given that undetected mpox infections were introduced into men who have sex with men, considering different transmissibility, population immunity and population activity.

RESULTS

We found that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy decreased about 94% and 69% mpox importations respectively. Under the quarantine policy, 15-19% of imported infections would remain undetected. Once a case of mpox is introduced into active MSM population with almost no population immunity, the risk of triggering local transmission is estimated at 42%, and would rise to > 95% with over six cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy during the COVID-19 pandemic reduced mpox importations prominently. However, the risk could be substantially higher with the recovery of air-travel volume to pre-pandemic level. Mpox could emerge as a public health threat for Chinese mainland given its large MSM community.

Mpox knowledge in the U.S.: Results from a nationally representative survey

Development and testing of a scale assessing mpox knowledge in a national survey of U.S. adults (aged ≥18 years) was conducted. Address-based sampling methods ensured full coverage of all households. Between September 16-22, 2022, N = 1018 participants self-administered the Internet-based survey that included a 15-item knowledge scale. Responses "yes," "no," and "I do not know," were scored as correct= 1, incorrect= -1, and "I do not know"= 0. Knowledge was dichotomized into good/poor based on modified Bloom's cutoff points (i.e. correctly answering at least 9 of the 15 total questions=good knowledge). We assessed psychometric characteristics and chi-square/one-way ANOVAs examining differences by demographic groups, applying sampling weights to analyses. Score reliability was strong (α = .82). All items but one ("Diarrhea is one of the symptoms of monkeypox") had statistically significant point biserial correlations, indicating a correlation between a correctly answered item and higher knowledge score. Only 35% of respondents were categorized as having good knowledge. Differences in knowledge by racial/ethnic, education, household income, sexual orientation, and MSA status groups were statistically significant. Mpox knowledge was lowest among heterosexually identified, rural, and low education/income respondents. Findings may be used in mpox prevention interventions, as the scale shows promise for assessing mpox knowledge in other groups/settings.

Poxviruses from the Concept of One Health

In the last 4 years, the world has experienced two pandemics of bat-borne viruses. Firstly, in 2019 the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic started and has been causing millions of deaths around the world. In 2022, a Monkeypox pandemic rose in various countries of the world. Those pandemics have witnessed movements and initiatives from healthcare and research institutions to establish a worldwide understanding to battle any future pandemics and biological threats. One Health concept is a modern, comprehensive, unifying ways to improve humans, animals, and ecosystems' health. This concept shows how much they are intertwined and related to one another, whether it is an environmental, or a pathological relation. This review aims to describe Poxviridae and its impact on the One Health concept, by studying the underlying causes of how poxviruses can affect the health of animals, humans, and environments. Reviewing the effect of disease transmission between animal to human, human to human, and animal to animal with pox viruses as a third party to achieve a total understanding of infection and viral transmission. Thus, contributing to enhance detection, diagnosis, research, and treatments regarding the application of One Health.

Phylogeny and molecular evolution of the first local monkeypox virus cluster in Guangdong Province, China

The first local mpox outbreak in Guangdong Province, China occurred in June 2023. However, epidemiological data have failed to quickly identify the source and transmission of the outbreak. Here, phylogeny and molecular evolution of 10 monkeypox virus (MPXV) genome sequences from the Guangdong outbreak were characterized, revealing local silent transmissions that may have occurred in Guangdong whose mpox outbreaks suggested a molecular epidemiological correlation with Portugal and several regions of China during the same period. The lineage IIb C.1, which includes all 10 MPXV from Guangdong, shows consistent temporal continuity in both phylogenetic characteristics and unique molecular evolutionary mutation spectrum, reflected in the continuous increase of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and shared mutations over time. Compared with the Japan MPXV, the Guangdong MPXV showed higher genomic nucleotide differences and separated 14 shared mutations from the B.1 lineage, comprising 6 non-synonymous mutations in genes linked to host regulation, virus infection, and virus life cycle. The unique mutation spectrum with temporal continuity in IIb C.1, related to apolipoprotein B mRNA-editing catalytic polypeptide-like 3, promotes rapid viral evolution and diversification. The findings contribute to understanding the ongoing mpox outbreak in China and offer insights for developing joint prevention and control strategies.

Driving effect of multiplex factors on Mpox in global high-risk region, implication for Mpox based on one health concept

Mpox is an ongoing viral zoonotic disease epidemic worldwide. Being different from conventional animal-to-human transmission, the present outbreak is mainly caused by human-to-human transmission of Mpox virus, putting forward the risk of worldwide epidemic. The current spatial distribution characteristics and risk area prediction are urgently needed for preparedness for prevention and control of the disease based on the One Health strategy. In the present study, the global outbreak point of Mpox virus were collected and used to predict potential global risk of Mpox virus with ecological niche model constructed with a combination of eco-geographical, anthropoid, meteorological, and host variables. The results showed that human factors are the key to the risk and prevalence of Mpox. The risk map indicated that Mpox may affect extensive areas worldwide. Europe and North America have the highest risk of Mpox. Although most areas have never recorded Mpox before, there are some high-risk areas in Asia. Our findings highlight population density is the most important contributing factor for high-risk area. Many large cities with dense populations, developed transportation, and high migration rate in the world, are in high risks. At present, the spread of Mpox is highly valued in the world and strict prevention and control measures have been taken. However, under the influence of human factors, Mpox has the potential of a global pandemic. The risk area prediction and main risk factors provide key information for targeted preparedness for prevention and control of Mpox outbreak and avoiding potential global epidemic through the One Health approach.

Monkeypox in Latin America and the Caribbean: assessment of the first 100 days of the 2022 outbreak

During the 2022 monkeypox (mpox) epidemic's first 100 days, 99 non-endemic countries, including 25 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, reported >64,000 cases. We aim to assess the cases' introduction, epidemiological profile, initial response, transmission dynamics, and main challenges ahead among LAC countries during the first 100 days of the mpox 2022 epidemic. We used mixed methods, including desktop research and open data analysis. The 2022 mpox epidemic has progressed consistently through LAC, with Brazil and Peru combining for over 80% of the confirmed LAC cases. Although Brazil reports the highest mpox case counts (n = 4472), Peru reports the highest incidence (41 confirmed cases per 1 million inhabitants). Initially, LAC missed the opportunity to focus on the high-risk population, including the people living with HIV (PLHIV) and gay, bisexual, and men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Moreover, the main challenges ahead include stigmatization, vaccine inequity, barriers to accessing diagnostics, and complete isolation. Furthermore, we estimated that Colombia, Brazil, the United States, and Peru are the world frontrunners in mpox duplication time (estimated between 6.4 and 8.8) and effective reproductive number (estimated between 2.7 and 3.8). In addition, Brazil reported its first case of inverse zoonosis in a dog and Peru its first autochthonous MPXV lineage, B.1.6. LAC has become the epicenter of the 2022 mpox epidemic, with Brazil and Peru emerging as the new mpox hot zones. Therefore, LAC countries must join efforts to control this epidemic and overcome the challenges of vaccine inequity and stigmatization.

A Review of the Past, Present, and Future of the Monkeypox Virus: Challenges, Opportunities, and Lessons from COVID-19 for Global Health Security

Monkeypox, a rare but significant zoonotic and orthopoxviral disease, has garnered increasing attention due to its potential for human-to-human transmission and its recent resurgence in multiple countries throughout Europe, North America, and Oceania. The disease has emerged as a novel threat to the global health systems that are still striving to recover from the major shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic. The unusual manifestation of the illness highlights a substantial knowledge deficit and necessitates the immediate development of a public health action strategy, considering the epidemiological differences observed in the ongoing outbreak and the appearance of cases in non-endemic nations. This literature review aims to synthesize existing knowledge on monkeypox, encompassing its historical context, etiology, epidemiology, surveillance, prevention, transmission, clinical presentation, diagnosis, treatments, and recent outbreak. Particular attention is given to both advances and gaps in our understanding of monkeypox, and we point toward future directions for research and intervention efforts as pertains to vaccine development and distribution. Lastly, we will also review the recent outbreak through a sociopolitical lens as relates to decision-making strategies, especially given the lessons learned from COVID-19.

Evolution and diversity of nucleotide and dinucleotide composition in poxviruses

Poxviruses (family Poxviridae) have long dsDNA genomes and infect a wide range of hosts, including insects, birds, reptiles and mammals. These viruses have substantial incidence, prevalence and disease burden in humans and in other animals. Nucleotide and dinucleotide composition, mostly CpG and TpA, have been largely studied in viral genomes because of their evolutionary and functional implications. We analysed here the nucleotide and dinucleotide composition, as well as codon usage bias, of a set of representative poxvirus genomes, with a very diverse host spectrum. After correcting for overall nucleotide composition, entomopoxviruses displayed low overall GC content, no enrichment in TpA and large variation in CpG enrichment, while chordopoxviruses showed large variation in nucleotide composition, no obvious depletion in CpG and a weak trend for TpA depletion in GC-rich genomes. Overall, intergenome variation in dinucleotide composition in poxviruses is largely accounted for by variation in overall genomic GC levels. Nonetheless, using vaccinia virus as a model, we found that genes expressed at the earliest times in infection are more CpG-depleted than genes expressed at later stages. This observation has parallels in betahepesviruses (also large dsDNA viruses) and suggests an antiviral role for the innate immune system (e.g. via the zinc-finger antiviral protein ZAP) in the early phases of poxvirus infection. We also analysed codon usage bias in poxviruses and we observed that it is mostly determined by genomic GC content, and that stratification after host taxonomy does not contribute to explaining codon usage bias diversity. By analysis of within-species diversity, we show that genomic GC content is the result of mutational biases. Poxvirus genomes that encode a DNA ligase are significantly AT-richer than those that do not, suggesting that DNA repair systems shape mutation biases. Our data shed light on the evolution of poxviruses and inform strategies for their genetic manipulation for therapeutic purposes.

Viral genetic clustering and transmission dynamics of the 2022 mpox outbreak in Portugal

Pathogen genome sequencing during epidemics enhances our ability to identify and understand suspected clusters and investigate their relationships. Here, we combine genomic and epidemiological data of the 2022 mpox outbreak to better understand early viral spread, diversification and transmission dynamics. By sequencing 52% of the confirmed cases in Portugal, we identified the mpox virus sublineages with the highest impact on case numbers and fitted them into a global context, finding evidence that several international sublineages probably emerged or spread early in Portugal. We estimated a 62% infection reporting rate and that 1.3% of the population of men who have sex with men in Portugal were infected. We infer the critical role played by sexual networks and superspreader gatherings, such as sauna attendance, in the dissemination of mpox virus. Overall, our findings highlight genomic epidemiology as a tool for the real-time monitoring and control of mpox epidemics, and can guide future vaccine policy in a highly susceptible population.

Monitoring Monkeypox: Safeguarding Global Health through Rapid Response and Global Surveillance

Monkeypox, a viral zoonotic disease, has emerged as a significant global threat in recent years. This review focuses on the importance of global monitoring and rapid response to monkeypox outbreaks. The unpredictable nature of monkeypox transmissions, its potential for human-to-human spread, and its high morbidity rate underscore the necessity for proactive surveillance systems. By analyzing the existing literature, including recent outbreaks, this review highlights the critical role of global surveillance in detecting, containing, and preventing the further spread of monkeypox. It also emphasizes the need for enhanced international collaboration, data sharing, and real-time information exchange to effectively respond to monkeypox outbreaks as a global health concern. Furthermore, this review discusses the challenges and opportunities of implementing robust surveillance strategies, including the use of advanced diagnostic tools and technologies. Ultimately, these findings underscore the urgency of establishing a comprehensive global monitoring framework for monkeypox, enabling early detection, prompt response, and effective control measures to protect public health worldwide.

Lessons from COVID-19 for rescalable data collection

Novel data and analyses have had an important role in informing the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Existing surveillance systems were scaled up, and in some instances new systems were developed to meet the challenges posed by the magnitude of the pandemic. We describe the routine and novel data that were used to address urgent public health questions during the pandemic, underscore the challenges in sustainability and equity in data generation, and highlight key lessons learnt for designing scalable data collection systems to support decision making during a public health crisis. As countries emerge from the acute phase of the pandemic, COVID-19 surveillance systems are being scaled down. However, SARS-CoV-2 resurgence remains a threat to global health security; therefore, a minimal cost-effective system needs to remain active that can be rapidly scaled up if necessary. We propose that a retrospective evaluation to identify the cost-benefit profile of the various data streams collected during the pandemic should be on the scientific research agenda.

Identification of In Vitro Inhibitors of Monkeypox Replication

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) infections in humans have historically been restricted to regions of endemicity in Africa. However, in 2022, an alarming number of MPXV cases were reported globally, with evidence of person-to-person transmission. Because of this, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the MPXV outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. The supply of MPXV vaccines is limited, and only two antivirals, tecovirimat and brincidofovir, approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of smallpox, are currently available for the treatment of MPXV infection. Here, we evaluated 19 compounds previously shown to inhibit different RNA viruses for their ability to inhibit orthopoxvirus infections. We first used recombinant vaccinia virus (rVACV) expressing fluorescence (mScarlet or green fluorescent protein [GFP]) and luciferase (Nluc) reporter genes to identify compounds with antiorthopoxvirus activity. Seven compounds from the ReFRAME library (antimycin A, mycophenolic acid, AVN-944, pyrazofurin, mycophenolate mofetil, azaribine, and brequinar) and six compounds from the NPC library (buparvaquone, valinomycin, narasin, monensin, rotenone, and mubritinib) showed inhibitory activity against rVACV. Notably, the anti-VACV activity of some of the compounds in the ReFRAME library (antimycin A, mycophenolic acid, AVN-944, mycophenolate mofetil, and brequinar) and all the compounds from the NPC library (buparvaquone, valinomycin, narasin, monensin, rotenone, and mubritinib) were confirmed with MPXV, demonstrating their inhibitory activity in vitro against two orthopoxviruses. IMPORTANCE Despite the eradication of smallpox, some orthopoxviruses remain important human pathogens, as exemplified by the recent 2022 monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak. Although smallpox vaccines are effective against MPXV, access to those vaccines is limited. In addition, current antiviral treatment against MPXV infections is limited to the use of the FDA-approved drugs tecovirimat and brincidofovir. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify novel antivirals for the treatment of MPXV infection and other potentially zoonotic orthopoxvirus infections. Here, we show that 13 compounds, derived from two different libraries, previously found to inhibit several RNA viruses, also inhibit VACV. Notably, 11 compounds also displayed inhibitory activity against MPXV.

The prospective outcome of the monkeypox outbreak in 2022 and characterization of monkeypox disease immunobiology

A new threat to global health re-emerged with monkeypox's advent in early 2022. As of November 10, 2022, nearly 80,000 confirmed cases had been reported worldwide, with most of them coming from places where the disease is not common. There were 53 fatalities, with 40 occurring in areas that had never before recorded monkeypox and the remaining 13 appearing in the regions that had previously reported the disease. Preliminary genetic data suggest that the 2022 monkeypox virus is part of the West African clade; the virus can be transmitted from person to person through direct interaction with lesions during sexual activity. It is still unknown if monkeypox can be transmitted via sexual contact or, more particularly, through infected body fluids. This most recent epidemic's reservoir host, or principal carrier, is still a mystery. Rodents found in Africa can be the possible intermediate host. Instead, the CDC has confirmed that there are currently no particular treatments for monkeypox virus infection in 2022; however, antivirals already in the market that are successful against smallpox may mitigate the spread of monkeypox. To protect against the disease, the JYNNEOS (Imvamune or Imvanex) smallpox vaccine can be given. The spread of monkeypox can be slowed through measures such as post-exposure immunization, contact tracing, and improved case diagnosis and isolation. Final Thoughts: The latest monkeypox epidemic is a new hazard during the COVID-19 epidemic. The prevailing condition of the monkeypox epidemic along with coinfection with COVID-19 could pose a serious condition for clinicians that could lead to the global epidemic community in the form of coinfection.

Mathematical modeling of mpox: A scoping review

Background

Mpox (monkeypox), a disease historically endemic to Africa, has seen its largest outbreak in 2022 by spreading to many regions of the world and has become a public health threat. Informed policies aimed at controlling and managing the spread of this disease necessitate the use of adequate mathematical modeling strategies.

Objective

In this scoping review, we sought to identify the mathematical models that have been used to study mpox transmission in the literature in order to determine what are the model classes most frequently used, their assumptions, and the modelling gaps that need to be addressed in the context of the epidemiological characteristics of the ongoing mpox outbreak.

Methods

This study employed the methodology of the PRISMA guidelines for scoping reviews to identify the mathematical models available to study mpox transmission dynamics. Three databases (PubMed, Web of Science and MathSciNet) were systematically searched to identify relevant studies.

Results

A total of 5827 papers were screened from the database queries. After the screening, 35 studies that met the inclusion criteria were analyzed, and 19 were finally included in the scoping review. Our results show that compartmental, branching process, Monte Carlo (stochastic), agent-based, and network models have been used to study mpox transmission dynamics between humans as well as between humans and animals. Furthermore, compartmental and branching models have been the most commonly used classes.

Conclusions

There is a need to develop modeling strategies for mpox transmission that take into account the conditions of the current outbreak, which has been largely driven by human-to-human transmission in urban settings. In the current scenario, the assumptions and parameters used by most of the studies included in this review (which are largely based on a limited number of studies carried out in Africa in the early 80s) may not be applicable, and therefore, can complicate any public health policies that are derived from their estimates. The current mpox outbreak is also an example of how more research into neglected zoonoses is needed in an era where new and re-emerging diseases have become global public health threats.

Monkeypox: A review of a zoonotic disease of global public health concern

Background: The rising circulation of the monkeypox virus while the COVID-19 is still ongoing in non-endemic countries is a significant global health threat. In this article, we have discussed the epidemiology, aetiology, and pathogenesis of the monkeypox virus to provide our current knowledge of the disease. Also, we discussed the ongoing efforts of the international health organizations to curtail the present epidemic and we finally provide recommendations for early detection and response. Methods: We did a rapid literature search on PubMed, EMBASE, World Health Organization (WHO), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and other trusted databases for recent articles (1958-2022) published in English-focusing on the outbreaks of monkeypox disease, epidemiology, pathogenesis, aetiology, prevention, and control in endemic and non-endemic countries. Keywords such as "Monkeypox", "Monkeypox virus", "Poxviridae", "Orthopoxvirus", "Smallpox", and "Smallpox Vaccine" were considered in our search based on MESH medical subject headings. Results: Our review highlights four important findings. First, a cumulative of 1285 monkeypox cases have been documented and reported by the WHO in non-endemic countries as of June 8, 2022. Second, international travel contributes to the increase in cases in non-endemic countries. Third, the origin of the outbreak, the pattern of transmission, and the risk of infections is not fully understood. Fourth, there is an ongoing effort by the WHO, CDC, and other international health organization to control the spread of the monkeypox disease. Conclusion: Our findings underline the need to reassess research priorities on the origin, transmission pattern, and risk factors for infection of monkeypox. Also, we provide recommendations under the One Health spectrum to prevent further spread of the disease.

Antivirals against monkeypox infections

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection in humans are historically restricted to endemic regions in Africa. However, in 2022, an alarming number of MPXV cases have been reported globally with evidence of person-to-person transmission. Because of this, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the MPXV outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. MPXV vaccines are limited and only two antivirals, tecovirimat and brincidofovir, approved by the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of smallpox, are currently available for the treatment of MPXV infection. Here, we evaluated 19 compounds previously shown to inhibit different RNA viruses for their ability to inhibit Orthopoxvirus infections. We first used recombinant vaccinia virus (rVACV) expressing fluorescence (Scarlet or GFP) and luciferase (Nluc) reporter genes to identify compounds with anti-Orthopoxvirus activity. Seven compounds from the ReFRAME library (antimycin A, mycophenolic acid, AVN- 944, pyrazofurin, mycophenolate mofetil, azaribine, and brequinar) and six compounds from the NPC library (buparvaquone, valinomycin, narasin, monensin, rotenone, and mubritinib) showed antiviral activity against rVACV. Notably, the anti-VACV activity of some of the compounds in the ReFRAME library (antimycin A, mycophenolic acid, AVN- 944, mycophenolate mofetil, and brequinar) and all the compounds from the NPC library (buparvaquone, valinomycin, narasin, monensin, rotenone, and mubritinib) were confirmed with MPXV, demonstrating the broad-spectrum antiviral activity against Orthopoxviruses and their potential to be used for the antiviral treatment of MPXV, or other Orthopoxvirus, infections.

IMPORTANCE

Despite the eradication of smallpox, some Orthopoxviruses remain important human pathogens, as exemplified by the recent 2022 monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak. Although smallpox vaccines are effective against MPXV, there is presently limited access to those vaccines. In addition, current antiviral treatment against MPXV infections is limited to the use of the FDA-approved drugs tecovirimat and brincidofovir. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify novel antivirals for the treatment of MPXV, and other potentially zoonotic Orthopoxvirus infections. Here, we show that thirteen compounds, derived from two different libraries, previously found to inhibit several RNA viruses, exhibit also antiviral activity against VACV. Notably, eleven compounds also displayed antiviral activity against MPXV, demonstrating their potential to be incorporated into the therapeutic armamentarium to combat Orthopoxvirus infections.

Emerging evidence on Monkeypox: resurgence, global burden, molecular insights, genomics and possible management

An outbreak of monkeypox (encoded enveloped double stranded DNA), resurgence and expansion has emerged in early 2022, posing a new threat to global health. Even though, many reports are available on monkeypox, still a comprehensive updated review is needed. Present updated review is focused to fill the research gaps pertaining to the monkeypox, and an extensive search was conducted in a number of databases, including Google Scholar, Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Direct. Although the disease usually progresses self-limiting, some patients require admission for kidney injury, pharyngitis, myocarditis, and soft tissue super infections. There is no well-known treatment available yet; still there has been a push for the use of antiviral therapy and tecovirimat as a promising option when dealing with co-morbidities. In this study, we mapped and discussed the updates and scientific developments surrounding monkeypox, including its potential molecular mechanisms, genomics, transmission, risk factors, diagnosis, prevention, vaccines, treatment, possible plant-based treatment along with their proposed mechanisms. Each day, a growing number of monkeypox cases are reported, and more cases are expected in the near future. As of now, monkeypox does not have a well-established and proven treatment, and several investigations are underway to find the best possible treatment from natural or synthetic drug sources. Multiple molecular mechanisms on pathophysiological cascades of monkeypox virus infection are discussed here along with updates on genomics, and possible preventive and therapeutic strategies.

Monkeypox (mpox) in immunosuppressed patients

The World Health Organization (WHO) proclaimed a public health emergency in July 2022 due to the emergence of Mpox (formerly monkeypox) while the globe was still dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic. The characteristics of mpox in immunocompetent individuals are well-characterized, despite difficulties in diagnostics, immunization, and access to treatment that persist in low-income countries. Patients with weakened immune systems are more likely to spread an illness and die from it than healthy people because they cannot mount a protective immune response against it, such as a neutralizing IgG and poxvirus-specific Th1 response. A health warning on severe mpox in people who are immunocompromised due to Human Immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other illnesses was released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on September 29, 2022. The advice does not specifically include primary immunodeficiency, but it does define other immunocompromising disorders as “having autoimmune disease with immunodeficiency as a clinical component”. Both those with healthy immune systems and those with weakened immune systems, such as those who are immunosuppressed, older people, children, etc., have encountered serious health issues, but the latter group is more likely to do so. According to the advisory, “of the people with severe mpox manifestations for whom CDC has been consulted, the majority have had HIV with CD4 counts 200 cells/ml, indicating substantial immunosuppression”. However, new cases are still expected to be discovered, especially in low-income countries with limited access to diagnosis, treatment, and prevention, and where a large percentage of the mpox-infected population also has advanced HIV infection. Thus, further research is always needed to determine the best way to treat mpox in immunocompromised people. In this context, we discussed /reviewed the mpox clinical presentation, available treatment options and current preventive guidelines in immunocompromised patients.

Making Sense of Monkeypox: A Comparison of Other Poxviruses to the Monkeypox

The current monkeypox (MPX) outbreak has been declared a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO). It is a zoonotic disease that has persisted in the African basin for decades but suddenly exploded into the international sphere this year. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of monkeypox, including a hypothesis of the rapid spread of the virus, its epidemiology and clinical features, a comparison with other orthopoxviruses such as chickenpox and smallpox, past and present outbreaks, and strategies for its prevention and treatment.

Geographic Structuring and Divergence Time Frame of Monkeypox Virus in the Endemic Region

BACKGROUND

Monkeypox is an emerging zoonosis endemic to Central and West Africa. Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is genetically structured in 2 major clades (clades 1 and 2/3), but its evolution is poorly explored.

METHODS

We retrieved MPXV genomes from public repositories and we analyzed geographic patterns using STRUCTURE. Molecular dating was performed using a using a Bayesian approach.

RESULTS

We show that the population transmitted in West Africa (clades 2/3) experienced limited drift. Conversely, clade 1 (transmitted in the Congo Basin) possibly underwent a bottleneck or founder effect. Depending on the model used, we estimated that the 2 clades separated ∼560-860 (highest posterior density: 450-960) years ago, a period characterized by expansions and contractions of rainforest areas, possibly creating the ecological conditions for the MPXV reservoir(s) to migrate. In the Congo Basin, MPXV diversity is characterized by 4 subpopulations that show no geographic structuring. Conversely, clades 2/3 are spatially structured with 2 populations located West and East of the Dahomey Gap.

CONCLUSIONS

The distinct histories of the 2 clades may derive from differences in MPXV ecology in West and Central Africa.

A compilation answering 50 questions on monkeypox virus and the current monkeypox outbreak

The current monkeypox disease (MPX) outbreak constitutes a new threat and challenge for our society. With more than 55,000 confirmed cases in 103 countries, World Health Organization declared the ongoing MPX outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on July 23, 2022. The current MPX outbreak is the largest, most widespread, and most serious since the diagnosis of the first case of MPX in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a country where MPX is an endemic disease. Throughout history, there have only been sporadic and self-limiting outbreaks of MPX outside Africa, with a total of 58 cases described from 2003 to 2021. This figure contrasts with the current outbreak of 2022, in which more than 55,000 cases have been confirmed in just 4 months. MPX is, in most cases, self-limiting; however, severe clinical manifestations and complications have been reported. Complications are usually related to the extent of virus exposure and patient health status, generally affecting children, pregnant women, and immunocompromised patients. The expansive nature of the current outbreak leaves many questions that the scientific community should investigate and answer in order to understand this phenomenon better and prevent new threats in the future. In this review, 50 questions regarding monkeypox virus (MPXV) and the current MPX outbreak were answered in order to provide the most updated scientific information and to explore the potential causes and consequences of this new health threat.

Estimating the Global Spread of Epidemic Human Monkeypox with Bayesian Directed Acyclic Graphic Model

A "Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)" monkeypox outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization on 23 June 2022. More than 16,000 monkeypox cases were reported in more than 75 countries across six regions as of July 25. The Bayesian SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model with the directed acyclic graphic method was used to estimate the basic/effective reproductive number (R₀/R_e) and to assess the epidemic spread of monkeypox across the globe. The maximum estimated R₀/R_e was 1.16 (1.15-1.17), 1.20 (1.20-1.20), 1.34 (1.34-1.35), 1.33 (1.33-1.33) and 2.52 (2.41-2.66) in the United States, Spain, Brazil, the United Kingdom and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, respectively. The values of R₀/R_e were below 1 after August 2022. The estimated infectious time before isolation ranged from 2.05 to 2.74 days. The PHEIC of the global spreading of human monkeypox has been contained so as to avoid a pandemic in the light of the reasoning-based epidemic model assessment.

Monkeypox (mpox) in immunosuppressed patients

The World Health Assembly declared that smallpox had been completely eradicated from the human population in 1980. Monkeypox, a zoonosis native to damp forested regions in West and Central Africa, is the illness that is most comparable to smallpox clinically and immunologically. Both illnesses could be prevented by the smallpox vaccine. Although the monkeypox virus is a less effective human disease than the smallpox virus, it could now spread among human populations if smallpox had not been eradicated and population-wide immunity had not been developed. A health warning on severe monkeypox in people who are immunocompromised due to Human Immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other illnesses was released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on September 29, 2022. The advise does not specifically include primary immunodeficiency, but it does define other immunocompromising disorders as “having autoimmune disease with immunodeficiency as a clinical component”. The documented severe signs of monkeypox include widespread rashes with secondary fungal or bacterial skin infections or tissue death (necrosis), intestine obstruction, and difficulties with the heart, lungs, urinary system, and nervous system. Both those with healthy immune systems and those with weakened immune systems, such as those who are immunosuppressed, older people, children, etc., have encountered serious health issues, but the latter group is more likely to do so. According to the advisory, “of the people with severe monkeypox manifestations for whom CDC has been consulted, the majority have had HIV with CD4 counts 200 cells/ml, indicating substantial immunosuppression”. The current article goes into great detail about monkeypox disease occurring in immunocompromised patients and preventive guidelines.

Temporal dynamic characteristics of human monkeypox epidemic in 2022 around the world under the COVID-19 pandemic background

Background

The reemergence of the monkeypox epidemic has aroused great concern internationally. Concurrently, the COVID-19 epidemic is still ongoing. It is essential to understand the temporal dynamics of the monkeypox epidemic in 2022 and its relationship with the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic. In this study, we aimed to explore the temporal dynamic characteristics of the human monkeypox epidemic in 2022 and its relationship with those of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Methods

We used publicly available data of cumulative monkeypox cases and COVID-19 in 2022 and COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020 for model validation and further analyses. The time series data were fitted with a descriptive model using the sigmoid function. Two important indices (logistic growth rate and semi-saturation period) could be obtained from the model to evaluate the temporal characteristics of the epidemic.

Results

As for the monkeypox epidemic, the growth rate of infection and semi-saturation period showed a negative correlation (r = 0.47, p = 0.034). The growth rate also showed a significant relationship with the locations of the country in which it occurs [latitude (r = -0.45, p = 0.038)]. The development of the monkeypox epidemic did not show significant correlation compared with the that of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2022. When comparing the COVID-19 epidemic with that of monkeypox, a significantly longer semi-saturation period was observed for monkeypox, while a significant larger growth rate was found in COVID-19 in 2020.

Conclusions

This novel study investigates the temporal dynamics of the human monkeypox epidemic and its relationship with the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, which could provide more appropriate guidance for local governments to plan and implement further fit-for-purpose epidemic prevention policies.

Dissemination and Symptoms of Monkeypox Virus Infection

The monkeypox virus is endemic in Africa. However, the virus has spread worldwide since May 2022, and it has now been confirmed in 109 countries (as of September 22, 2022). Thus, an urgent investigation of the outbreak patterns of confirmed cases and evidence of viral infection is needed. This study investigated the spread of monkeypox in 109 countries, including 15 Asian-Pacific countries, by examining the number of cases, symptoms of infection, and the period between diagnosis and death.

Rapid detection of mpox virus using recombinase aided amplification assay

A recent, unprecedented outbreak of human mpox virus infection has led to cases in non-African nations, and the number of confirmed or suspected cases outside of Africa has exceeded 1,000 within 5 weeks. Mpox may pose a double threat to public health in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It is difficult to distinguish mpox virus infection from other diseases in the early stages, and patients are contagious from the onset of nonspecific symptoms; therefore, it is crucial to develop rapid and specific diagnostic methods. The diagnosis of mpox relies on real-time polymerase chain reaction, a time-consuming method that requires a highly sophisticated thermal cycler, which makes it unsuitable for widespread use in underdeveloped areas, where the outbreak is still severe. In this study, we developed a recombinase-aided amplification (RAA) assay that can detect mpox virus within 5-10 minutes. The conserved regions of the A27L gene and F3L gene were selected as targets, as they amplify well from different mpox virus clades with no cross-reaction from other pathogens. The sensitivity of this RAA assay is 10 copies/reaction for the A27L gene and 10² copies/reaction for the F3L gene. When applied to simulated clinical samples, both targets showed 100% specificity, and the detection limits were consistent with the sensitivity results. Moreover, through clinical blinded sample detection, RAA exhibits the same detection power as RT-PCR. In summary, the RAA mpox assay described here exhibits rapid detection, high sensitivity and specificity, and low operational difficulty, making it suitable for mpox virus detection in less developed countries and regions.

Estimation of the serial interval of monkeypox during the early outbreak in 2022

With increased transmissibility and novel transmission mode, monkeypox poses new threats to public health globally in the background of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates of the serial interval, a key epidemiological parameter of infectious disease transmission, could provide insights into the virus transmission risks. As of October 2022, little was known about the serial interval of monkeypox due to the lack of contact tracing data. In this study, public-available contact tracing data of global monkeypox cases were collected and 21 infector-infectee transmission pairs were identified. We proposed a statistical method applied to real-world observations to estimate the serial interval of the monkeypox. We estimated a mean serial interval of 5.6 days with the right truncation and sampling bias adjusted and calculated the reproduction number of 1.33 for the early monkeypox outbreaks at a global scale. Our findings provided a preliminary understanding of the transmission potentials of the current situation of monkeypox outbreaks. We highlighted the need for continuous surveillance of monkeypox for transmission risk assessment.

Monkeypox and ring vaccination during the FIFA world cup 2022 in Qatar: a call for action

Given the potential spread of monkeypox (MPX) during the FIFA world cup 2022 in Qatar, appropriate precautions should be taken for early containment. Ring vaccination is an appropriate measure in this regard due to its ability not only to break the MPX transmission chain but also to prevent its progression.

Human Monkeypox: Oral Implications and Recommendations for Oral Screening and Infection Control in Dental Practice

The World Health Organization declared the spread of the human monkeypox virus (MPXV) an "emerging threat of moderate health concern" on 23 June 2022. Although about 20,000 cases of Monkeypox (MPX) were recorded in Europe and more than 28,000 in the United States from May to October 2022, their number is still small compared to the number of dental patients treated annually. Therefore, the likelihood of oral healthcare workers encountering an MPX case is relatively low in not endemic regions. In addition, MPX-positive individuals are considered contagious only during the prodromal or acute phase. However, the exact shedding and transmission routes of MPX and the associated risk of transmission in the dental setting remain unclear. Moreover, infected subjects whose disease is confined to the head and neck may require oral and dental care because they complain of lymphadenopathy involving the cervical lymph nodes. Furthermore, MPX lesions may first appear in the oral cavity or perioral area. Therefore, given the recent spread of MPXV in non-endemic areas where dentists are not used to considering this disease in the differential diagnosis and taking appropriate preventive measures, all oral healthcare providers nowadays should be aware of the oral presentation of MPX for adequate oral screening and appropriate preventive measures for infection control in the dental practice.

Contact Tracing and Exposure Investigation in Response to the First Case of Monkeypox Virus Infection in the United States During the 2022 Global Monkeypox Outbreak

BACKGROUND

In May 2022, the first case of monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection in the United States in the current global outbreak was identified. As part of the public health and health care facility response, a contact tracing and exposure investigation was done.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the contact tracing, exposure identification, risk stratification, administration of postexposure prophylaxis (PEP), and exposure period monitoring for contacts of the index patient, including evaluation of persons who developed symptoms possibly consistent with MPXV infection.

DESIGN

Contact tracing and exposure investigation.

SETTING

Multiple health care facilities and community settings in Massachusetts.

PARTICIPANTS

Persons identified as contacts of the index patient.

INTERVENTION

Contact notification, risk stratification, and symptom monitoring; PEP administration in a subset of contacts.

MEASUREMENTS

Epidemiologic and clinical data collected through standard surveillance procedures at each facility and then aggregated and analyzed.

RESULTS

There were 37 community and 129 health care contacts identified, with 4 at high risk, 49 at intermediate risk, and 113 at low or uncertain risk. Fifteen health care contacts developed symptoms during the monitoring period. Three met criteria for MPXV testing, with negative results. Two community contacts developed symptoms. Neither met criteria for MPXV testing, and neither showed disease progression consistent with monkeypox. Among 4 persons with high-risk exposures offered PEP, 3 elected to receive PEP. Among 10 HCP with intermediate-risk exposures for which PEP was offered as part of informed clinical decision making, 2 elected to receive PEP. No transmissions were identified at the conclusion of the 21-day monitoring period, despite the delay in recognition of monkeypox in the index patient.

LIMITATION

Descriptions of exposures are subject to recall bias, which affects risk stratification.

CONCLUSION

In a contact tracing investigation involving 166 community and health care contacts of a patient with monkeypox, no secondary cases were identified.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

None.