COVID-19 hospital admissions: Brazil's first and second waves compared

The Association Between Prepandemic ICU Performance and Mortality Variation in COVID-19: A Multicenter Cohort Study of 35,619 Critically Ill Patients

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, ICUs remained under stress and observed elevated mortality rates and high variations of outcomes. A knowledge gap exists regarding whether an ICU performing best during nonpandemic times would still perform better when under high pressure compared with the least performing ICUs.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Does prepandemic ICU performance explain the risk-adjusted mortality variability for critically ill patients with COVID-19?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This study examined a cohort of adults with real-time polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to 156 ICUs in 35 hospitals from February 16, 2020, through December 31, 2021, in Brazil. We evaluated crude and adjusted in-hospital mortality variability of patients with COVID-19 in the ICU during the pandemic. Association of baseline (prepandemic) ICU performance and in-hospital mortality was examined using a variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) during the pandemic and a multivariable mixed regression model adjusted by clinical characteristics, interaction of performance with the year of admission, and mechanical ventilation at admission.

RESULTS

Thirty-five thousand six hundred nineteen patients with confirmed COVID-19 were evaluated. The median age was 52 years, median Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 was 42, and 18% underwent invasive mechanical ventilation. In-hospital mortality was 13% and 54% for those receiving invasive mechanical ventilation. Adjusted in-hospital mortality ranged from 3.6% to 63.2%. VLAD in the most efficient ICUs was higher than the overall median in 18% of weeks, whereas VLAD was 62% and 84% in the underachieving and least efficient groups, respectively. The least efficient baseline ICU performance group was associated independently with increased mortality (OR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.45-3.62) after adjusting for patient characteristics, disease severity, and pandemic surge.

INTERPRETATION

ICUs caring for patients with COVID-19 presented substantial variation in risk-adjusted mortality. ICUs with better baseline (prepandemic) performance showed reduced mortality and less variability. Our findings suggest that achieving ICU efficiency by targeting improvement in organizational aspects of ICUs may impact outcomes, and therefore should be a part of the preparedness for future pandemics.

Temporal trends of severity and outcomes of critically ill patients with COVID-19 after the emergence of variants of concern: A comparison of two waves

BACKGROUND

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants led to subsequent waves of COVID-19 worldwide. In many countries, the second wave of COVID-19 was marked by record deaths, raising the concern that variants associated with that wave might be more deadly. Our aim was to compare outcomes of critically-ill patients of the first two waves of COVID-19.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort included critically-ill patients admitted between March-June 2020 and April-July 2021 in the largest academic hospital in Brazil, which has free-access universal health care system. We compared admission characteristics and hospital outcomes. The main outcome was 60-day survival and we built multivariable Cox model based on a conceptual causal diagram in the format of directed acyclic graph (DAG).

RESULTS

We included 1583 patients (1315 in the first and 268 in the second wave). Patients in the second wave were younger, had lower severity scores, used prone and non-invasive ventilatory support more often, and fewer patients required mechanical ventilation (70% vs 80%, p<0.001), vasopressors (60 vs 74%, p<0.001), and dialysis (22% vs 37%, p<0.001). Survival was higher in the second wave (HR 0.61, 95%CI 0.50-0.76). In the multivariable model, admission during the second wave, adjusted for age, SAPS3 and vaccination, was not associated with survival (aHR 0.85, 95%CI 0.65-1.12).

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort study, patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU in the second wave were younger and had better prognostic scores. Adjusted survival was similar in the two waves, contrasting with record number of hospitalizations, daily deaths and health system collapse seen across the country in the second wave. Our findings suggest that the combination of the burden of severe cases and factors such as resource allocation and health disparities may have had an impact in the excess mortality found in many countries in the second wave.

Analysis of associations between the TLR3 SNPs rs3775291 and rs3775290 and COVID-19 in a cohort of professionals of Belém-PA, Brazil

The objective of this article was to verify associations between the SNPs rs3775291 (Cytosine [C]>Thymine [T]) and rs3775290 (C>T) of TLR3 in professionals from Health Institutions (HI) who worked during the first pandemic wave and COVID-19. A case-control study was carried out with workers from HI in Belém-PA, Brazil, divided into symptomatology groups (Asymptomatic-AS, n=91; and Symptomatic-SI, n=121), and severity groups, classified by Chest CT scan (symptomatic with lung involvement - SCP, n=34; symptomatic without lung involvement - SSP, n=8). Genotyping was performed by Sanger sequencing and statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS program. In the analysis of SNP rs3775291, the homozygous recessive genotype (T/T) was not found and the frequency of the mutant allele (T) was less than 2% in the cohort. For the rs3775290 SNP, the frequency of the mutant allele (T) was greater than 42% in the cohort. No significant associations were found for these SNPs in this cohort (N= 212 individuals). The scientific community and physicians can use these facts to find new methods of managing COVID-19.

Clinical-epidemiological characteristics and survival of cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) due to COVID-19, according to the COVID-19 vaccination schedule in Brazil, 2021-2022: a prospective study

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the clinical and sociodemographic characteristics and survival of individuals with severe acute respiratory syndrome due to COVID-19 according to the COVID-19 vaccination schedule, Brazil, 2021-2022.

METHODS

This was a cohort study based on data from the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System; the Kaplan-Meier and Survival Tree methods were used to analyze survival.

RESULTS

Among the 559,866 hospitalized cases, a higher proportion of vaccinated individuals was found among female (15.0%), elderly people aged ≥ 80 (34.5%), people from the Southeast region (15.7%), those who did not undergo respiratory support (21.2%) and those who did progress to death (15.2%); the survival curve showed that risk of death for unvaccinated individuals was higher in all age groups (p-value < 0.001); elderly people aged ≥ 80, who did not undergo mechanical ventilation and who had a booster dose had lower risk when compared to their peers who had two doses or were unvaccinated (hazard ratio = 0.64; 95%CI 0.62;0.67).

CONCLUSION

Lowest risk of death was found in vaccinated individuals, especially those who had two doses or a booster dose as well.

MAIN RESULTS

Prevalence was found to be high among unvaccinated individuals. Risk of death was lower among those vaccinated with a booster dose, compared to those not vaccinated, in all age groups analyzed.

IMPLICATIONS FOR SERVICES

The number of hospitalizations of unvaccinated individuals with severe acute respiratory syndrome was high, which increases the demand for health services to care for these individuals.

PERSPECTIVES

It is necessary to promote widespread vaccination of the entire population of Brazil, in addition to the regular provision of booster doses for the different population groups.

Assessing the impact of the Gamma variant on COVID-19 patient admissions in a southern Brazilian tertiary hospital-A comparison of dual pandemic phases

Since the first case of COVID-19, Brazil has undergone infection waves with distinct characteristics. The description of new variants has alerted the emergence of more contagious or virulent viruses. The variant of concern Gamma emerged in Brazil and caused an epidemic wave, but its spread outside the country was limited. We report the clinical-epidemiological profile of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 by comparing two periods. A retrospective cohort study was performed. The primary outcome was to assess individuals with COVID-19 admitted in wards and intensive care units at the academic hospital of the Federal University of Parana (CHC-UFPR) between March 2020 and July 2021, correlating demographic, clinical-epidemiologic, and survival data with the most prevalent viral variant found in each period. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis to estimate the probability of survival and ROC curves to evaluate laboratory tests to find a cutoff point for poor outcomes. Data from 2,887 individuals were analyzed, 1,495 and 1,392 from the first and second periods, respectively. Hospitalization predominated among males in both periods, and the median age was significantly lower in the second one. The frequency of comorbidities was similar. Various demographic factors, clinical assessments, and laboratory tests were examined in relation to greater severity. When comparing the two periods, we observed predominance of the Wild virus during the first wave and the Gamma variant during the second, with no significant difference in outcomes. The findings suggest that despite the association of many factors with increased severity, the temporal variation between the two periods did not result in a notable divergence in the measured outcomes. The COVID-19 pandemic has lasted for a long time, with periods marked by peaks of cases, often caused by the emergence of viral variants, resulting in higher infection rates and rapid dissemination but, for variant Gamma, no apparent greater virulence.

A comparative NMR-based metabolomics study of lung parenchyma of severe COVID-19 patients

COVID-19 was the most significant infectious-agent-related cause of death in the 2020-2021 period. On average, over 60% of those admitted to ICU facilities with this disease died across the globe. In severe cases, COVID-19 leads to respiratory and systemic compromise, including pneumonia-like symptoms, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and multiorgan failure. While the upper respiratory tract and lungs are the principal sites of infection and injury, most studies on the metabolic signatures in COVID-19 patients have been carried out on serum and plasma samples. In this report we attempt to characterize the metabolome of lung parenchyma extracts from fatal COVID-19 cases and compare them with that from other respiratory diseases. Our findings indicate that the metabolomic profiles from fatal COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 cases are markedly different, with the former being the result of increased lactate and amino acid metabolism, altered energy pathways, oxidative stress, and inflammatory response. Overall, these findings provide additional insights into the pathophysiology of COVID-19 that could lead to the development of targeted therapies for the treatment of severe cases of the disease, and further highlight the potential of metabolomic approaches in COVID-19 research.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit during the first and second waves of the pandemic in Brazil: a single-center retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To describe and compare the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to intensive care units during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

In this retrospective single-center cohort study, data were retrieved from the Epimed Monitor System; all adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit between March 4, 2020, and October 1, 2021, were included in the study. We compared the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to the intensive care unit of a quaternary private hospital in São Paulo, Brazil, during the first (May 1, 2020, to August 31, 2020) and second (March 1, 2021, to June 30, 2021) waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

In total, 1,427 patients with COVID-19 were admitted to the intensive care unit during the first (421 patients) and second (1,006 patients) waves. Compared with the first wave group [median (IQR)], the second wave group was younger [57 (46-70) versus 67 (52-80) years; p<0.001], had a lower SAPS 3 Score [45 (42-52) versus 49 (43-57); p<0.001], lower SOFA Score on intensive care unit admission [3 (1-6) versus 4 (2-6); p=0.018], lower Charlson Comorbidity Index [0 (0-1) versus 1 (0-2); p<0.001], and were less frequently frail (10.4% versus 18.1%; p<0.001). The second wave group used more noninvasive ventilation (81.3% versus 53.4%; p<0.001) and high-flow nasal cannula (63.2% versus 23.0%; p<0.001) during their intensive care unit stay. The intensive care unit (11.3% versus 10.5%; p=0.696) and in-hospital mortality (12.3% versus 12.1%; p=0.998) rates did not differ between both waves.

CONCLUSION

In the first and second waves, patients with severe COVID-19 exhibited similar mortality rates and need for invasive organ support, despite the second wave group being younger and less severely ill at the time of intensive care unit admission.

Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the Brazilian state of Pará

Introduction

After three years since the beginning of the pandemic, the new coronavirus continues to raise several questions regarding its infectious process and host response. Several mutations occurred in different regions of the SARS-CoV-2 genome, such as in the spike gene, causing the emergence of variants of concern and interest (VOCs and VOIs), of which some present higher transmissibility and virulence, especially among patients with previous comorbidities. It is essential to understand its spread dynamics to prevent and control new biological threats that may occur in the future. In this population_based retrospective observational study, we generated data and used public databases to understand SARS-CoV-2 dynamics.

Methods

We sequenced 1,003 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from naso-oropharyngeal swabs and saliva samples from Pará from May 2020 to October 2022. To gather epidemiological data from Brazil and the world, we used FIOCRUZ and GISAID databases.

Results

Regarding our samples, 496 (49.45%) were derived from female participants and 507 (50.55%) from male participants, and the average age was 43  years old. The Gamma variant presented the highest number of cases, with 290 (28.91%) cases, followed by delta with 53 (5.28%). Moreover, we found seven (0.69%) Omicron cases and 651 (64.9%) non-VOC cases. A significant association was observed between sex and the clinical condition (female, p = 8.65e-08; male, p = 0.008961) and age (p = 3.6e-10).

Discussion

Although gamma had been officially identified only in December 2020/January 2021, we identified a gamma case from Belém (capital of Pará State) dated May 2020 and three other cases in October 2020. This indicates that this variant was circulating in the North region of Brazil several months before its formal identification and that Gamma demonstrated its actual transmission capacity only at the end of 2020. Furthermore, the public data analysis showed that SARS-CoV-2 dispersion dynamics differed in Brazil as Gamma played an important role here, while most other countries reported a new infection caused by the Delta variant. The genetic and epidemiological information of this study reinforces the relevance of having a robust genomic surveillance service that allows better management of the pandemic and that provides efficient solutions to possible new disease-causing agents.

Lessons Learned from a Global Perspective of Coronavirus Disease-2019

Coronavirus disease-2019 has impacted the world globally. Countries and health care organizations across the globe responded to this unprecedented public health crisis in a varied manner in terms of public health and social measures, vaccination development and rollout, the conduct of research, developments of therapeutics, sharing of information, and in how they continue to deal with the widespread aftermath. This article reviews the various elements of the global response to the pandemic, focusing on the lessons learned and strategies to consider during future pandemics.

Application of "Internet +" pharmaceutical consultation services in psychiatric hospital during the epidemic

This study explored the application value of "Internet +" pharmacy service on psychiatric hospital during the COVID-19 epidemic. During the epidemic, as of December 31, 2020, the number of online pharmacist consultations increased to 149 cases (82.78 %). At the same time, patients had various types of consultation questions, mainly involving adverse drug reactions, drug selection, usage and dosage, persistence of long-term medication, drug distribution, etc. Due to the particularity of psychiatric hospital, pharmaceutical consultation services mainly focus on nervous system drugs. The results indicated that the demand for "Internet +" pharmaceutical consultation services has increased significantly during the COVID-19 epidemic.

Clinical Profile and Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Comparison between the First and Second Pandemic Waves

Since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, Brazil has become one of the countries most affected by this disease. A year into the pandemic, a second wave of COVID-19 emerged, with a rapid spread of a new SARS-CoV-2 lineage of concern. Several vaccines have been granted emergency-use authorization, leading to a decrease in mortality and severe cases in many countries. However, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants raises the alert for potential new waves of transmission and an increase in pathogenicity. We compared the demographic and clinical data of critically ill patients infected with COVID-19 hospitalized in Rio de Janeiro during the first and second waves between July 2020 and October 2021. In total, 106 participants were included in this study; among them, 88% had at least one comorbidity, and 37% developed severe disease. Disease severity was associated with older age, pre-existing neurological comorbidities, higher viral load, and dyspnea. Laboratory biomarkers related to white blood cells, coagulation, cellular injury, inflammation, renal, and liver injuries were significantly associated with severe COVID-19. During the second wave of the pandemic, the necessity of invasive respiratory support was higher, and more individuals with COVID-19 developed acute hepatitis, suggesting that the progression of the second wave resulted in an increase in severe cases. These results can contribute to understanding the behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and may be helpful in predicting disease severity, which is a pivotal for guiding clinical care, improving patient outcomes, and defining public policies.

Clinical and Epidemiological Characteristics of Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit: A Two-Year Retrospective Analysis

In March 2020, COVID-19 was characterized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19 presented with severe respiratory and motor impairment, especially those who required intensive treatment and invasive mechanical ventilation, with sequelae that extended after the period of hospitalization. Thus, the aim of the current study was to verify the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the Intensive Care Unit in 2020 and 2021, according to age group. Methods: A retrospective cohort study. Data were collected through the “ICUs Brasileiras” between March 2020 and November 2021 for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) due to COVID-19. The following were analyzed: the number of hospital admissions, days in the ICU and hospital, clinical aspects (non-invasive or invasive ventilatory support, comorbidities, frailty, SAPS 3 and SOFA severity scales, use of amines and renal support), and ICU and hospital mortality rate. Results: A total of 166,966 ICU hospital admissions were evaluated over the evaluated quarters. The main results showed a peak in the number of hospitalizations between March and May 2021, with a higher percentage of males. The peak of ICU admissions for 7 days was between March and May 2021 and 21 days between March and May 2020. In addition, higher deaths were observed in the age groups between 40 and 80 years between 2020 and 2021, with the group above 81 being the age group with the highest mortality. Mortality in the ICU of ventilated patients was higher in the age group above 70 years. Another observation was the predominance of SAPS 3 and the peak of mechanical ventilation for more than 7 days between June and August 2021. Conclusion: The clinical and epidemiological characteristics of patients with COVID-19 were influenced by age group, showing higher mortality over 81 years and over 70 years in the ICU supported by mechanical ventilation, maintained for 7 days from June to August 2021. The years 2020 and 2021 also showed differences for patients with COVID-19, with greater hospitalization between March and May 2021, especially in the ICU for 7 days, and between March and May 2020 for the 21-day period.

Socioeconomic inequality in hospital case fatality rate and care among children and adolescents hospitalized for COVID-19 in Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association of hospital case fatality rate and care received by children and adolescents hospitalized for COVID-19 with the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of Brazilian municipalities and regions of residence.

METHODS

Data were collected from the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The dichotomous outcomes analyzed were hospital case fatality rate of COVID-19, biological samples collected for COVID-19 diagnosis, X-rays, computed tomography (CT) scans, use of ventilatory support, and intensive care unit hospitalization. The covariates were municipal GDP per capita and the Brazilian region of residence. Poisson regression was used for the outcomes recorded in 2020 and 2021 in Brazil, covering the two COVID-19 waves in the country, adjusted for age and gender.

RESULTS

The hospital case fatality rate was 7.6%. In municipalities with lower GDP per capita deciles, the case fatality rate was almost four times higher among children and twice as high in adolescents compared to cities with higher deciles. Additionally, residents of municipalities with lower GDP per capita had fewer biological samples collected for diagnosis, X-ray examinations, and CT scans. We found regional disparities associated with case fatality rate, with worse indicators in the North and Northeast regions. The findings remained consistent over the two COVID-19 waves.

CONCLUSION

Municipalities with lower GDP per capita, as well as the North and Northeast regions, had worse indicators of hospital case fatality rate and care.

Preclinical development of kinetin as a safe error-prone SARS-CoV-2 antiviral able to attenuate virus-induced inflammation

Orally available antivirals against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are necessary because of the continuous circulation of new variants that challenge immunized individuals. Because severe COVID-19 is a virus-triggered immune and inflammatory dysfunction, molecules endowed with both antiviral and anti-inflammatory activity are highly desirable. We identified here that kinetin (MB-905) inhibits the in vitro replication of SARS-CoV-2 in human hepatic and pulmonary cell lines. On infected monocytes, MB-905 reduced virus replication, IL-6 and TNFα levels. MB-905 is converted into its triphosphate nucleotide to inhibit viral RNA synthesis and induce error-prone virus replication. Coinhibition of SARS-CoV-2 exonuclease, a proofreading enzyme that corrects erroneously incorporated nucleotides during viral RNA replication, potentiated the inhibitory effect of MB-905. MB-905 shows good oral absorption, its metabolites are stable, achieving long-lasting plasma and lung concentrations, and this drug is not mutagenic nor cardiotoxic in acute and chronic treatments. SARS-CoV-2-infected hACE-mice and hamsters treated with MB-905 show decreased viral replication, lung necrosis, hemorrhage and inflammation. Because kinetin is clinically investigated for a rare genetic disease at regimens beyond the predicted concentrations of antiviral/anti-inflammatory inhibition, our investigation suggests the opportunity for the rapid clinical development of a new antiviral substance for the treatment of COVID-19.

Desigualdade socioeconômica na letalidade e no cuidado hospitalar de crianças e adolescentes internados por COVID-19 no Brasil

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar a associação entre a letalidade e o cuidado hospitalar recebido por crianças e adolescentes internados por COVID-19 e o produto interno bruto (PIB) per capita dos municípios brasileiros e a região de residência. Métodos: Os dados foram extraídos do Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe e do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Analisaram-se como desfechos dicotômicos a letalidade hospitalar por COVID-19, a coleta de amostra biológica para diagnóstico de COVID-19, a realização de exames raio X e tomografia, o uso de suporte ventilatório e a internação em unidade de terapia intensiva. As covariáveis foram o PIB municipal per capita e a região brasileira de residência. Foi realizada regressão de Poisson para os desfechos registrados em 2020 e 2021 no Brasil e segundo o período compreendido em duas ondas de COVID-19 no país, ajustando-a por idade e sexo. Resultados: A letalidade hospitalar foi de 7,6%. Nos municípios dos menores decis de PIB per capita a letalidade foi quase quatro vezes maior entre crianças e duas vezes mais elevada entre adolescentes quando comparada àquela dos maiores decis. Adicionalmente, os residentes de municípios com menor PIB per capita realizaram menos coleta de amostra biológica para diagnóstico, exames de raio X e tomografias. Foram encontradas disparidades regionais associadas à letalidade, com piores indicadores nas regiões Norte e Nordeste. Os achados mantiveram-se consistentes durante as duas ondas de COVID-19. Conclusão: Em municípios com menor PIB per capita e das regiões Norte e Nordeste houve piores indicadores de letalidade e cuidado hospitalar.

Outcomes and risk factors for death among hospitalized children and adolescents with kidney diseases and COVID-19: an analysis of a nationwide database

BACKGROUND

Patients with kidney diseases (KD) appear to be at particularly high risk for severe COVID-19. This study aimed to characterize the clinical outcomes and risk factors for COVID-19-related death in a large cohort of hospitalized pediatric patients with KD.

METHODS

We performed an analysis of all pediatric patients with KD and COVID-19 registered in SIVEP-Gripe, a Brazilian nationwide surveillance database, between February 16, 2020, and May 29, 2021. The primary outcome was time to death, which was evaluated considering discharge as a competitive risk by using cumulative incidence function.

RESULTS

Among 21,591 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, 290 cases (1.3%) had KD. Of these, 59 (20.8%) had a fatal outcome compared with 7.5% of the non-KD cohort (P < 0.001). Pediatric patients with KD had an increased hazard of death compared with the non-KD cohort (Hazard ratio [HR] = 2.85, 95% CI 2.21-3.68, P < 0.0001). After adjustment, the factors associated with the death among KD patients were living in Northeast (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.13-4.31) or North regions (HR 3.50, 95% CI 1.57-7.80), oxygen saturation < 95% at presentation (HR 2.31, 95% CI 1.30-4.10), and presence of two or more associated comorbidities (HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.08-4.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Children and adolescents with KD had a higher risk of death compared with the non-KD cohort. The higher risk was associated with low oxygen saturation at admission, living in socioeconomically disadvantaged regions, and presence of other pre-existing comorbidities. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

[Social vulnerability, survival, and hospital lethality by COVID-19 in patients aged 50 years and over: retrospective cohort of cases in Brazil in 2020 and 2021]

The outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection is not only associated with age and comorbidities but is also aggravated by social vulnerability. This study aims to analyze - according to social vulnerability - survival and hospital lethality by COVID-19 in the first 100 days from symptoms to death in individuals aged 50 years or older hospitalized in Brazil. This is a retrospective cohort from Epidemiological Week 11 of 2020 to week 33 of 2021. The Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System (SIVEP-Gripe) provided clinical and epidemiological data. The Geographic Index of the Socioeconomic Context for Health and Social Studies (GeoSES) measured social vulnerability. The Kaplan-Meier curve and the adjusted proportional risk model by Cox were used for survival, with hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Among the 410,504 cases, overall lethality was of 42.2% in general and 51.4% in the most vulnerable. We found a higher lethality according to worse socioeconomic status in all categories by age group; the double is registered for 50-59 years. The adjusted Cox model showed a 32% increase in risk of death (HR = 1.32; 95%CI: 1.24-1.42). Moreover, men, older adults, black or indigenous adults, with multiple comorbidities, and subjected to invasive ventilation, have a higher risk of death after hospitalization. Intersectoral policy measures need to be targeted to alleviate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic aggravated by social vulnerability.

Modelling optimal vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in a context of Gamma variant predominance in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Brazil experienced moments of collapse in its health system throughout 2021, driven by the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) combined with an inefficient initial vaccination strategy against Covid-19.

OBJECTIVES

To support decision-makers in formulating COVID-19 immunization policy in the context of limited vaccine availability and evolving variants over time, we evaluate optimal strategies for Covid-19 vaccination in Brazil in 2021, when vaccination was rolled out during Gamma variant predominance.

METHODS

Using a discrete-time epidemic model we estimate Covid-19 deaths averted, considering the currently Covid-19 vaccine products and doses available in Brazil; vaccine coverage by target population; and vaccine effectiveness estimates. We evaluated a 5-month time horizon, from early August to the end of December 2021. Optimal vaccination strategies compared the outcomes in terms of averted deaths when varying dose intervals from 8 to 12 weeks, and choosing the minimum coverage levels per age group required prior to expanding vaccination to younger target populations. We also estimated dose availability required over time to allow the implementation of optimal strategies.

RESULTS

To maximize the number of averted deaths, vaccine coverage of at least 80 % should be reached in older age groups before starting vaccination into subsequent younger age groups. When evaluating varying dose intervals for AZD1222, reducing the dose interval from 12 to 8 weeks for the primary schedule would result in fewer COVID-19 deaths, but this can only be implemented if accompanied by an increase in vaccine supply of at least 50 % over the coming six-months in Brazil.

CONCLUSION

Covid-19 immunization strategies should be tailored to local vaccine product availability and supply over time, circulating variants of concern, and vaccine coverage in target population groups. Modelling can provide valuable and timely evidence to support the implementation of vaccination strategies considering the local context, yet following international and regional technical evidence-based guidance.

Excess maternal mortality in Brazil: Regional inequalities and trajectories during the COVID-19 epidemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has exceeded 6 million known disease-related deaths and there is evidence of an increase in maternal deaths, especially in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate excess maternal deaths in Brazil and its macroregions as well as their trajectories in the first 15 months of the COVID-19 epidemic.

METHODS

This study evaluated maternal deaths from the Mortality Information System of the Ministry of Health, with excess deaths being assessed between March 2020 and May 2021 by quasi-Poisson generalized additive models adjusted for overdispersion. Observed deaths were compared to deaths expected without the pandemic, accompanied by 95% confidence intervals according to region, age group, and trimester of occurrence. Analyses were conducted in R version 3.6.1 and RStudio version 1.2.1335.

RESULTS

There were 3,291 notified maternal deaths during the study period, resulting in a 70% excess of deaths regardless of region, while in the North, Northeast, South and Southeast regions, excess deaths occurred regardless of age group. Excess deaths occurred in the March-May 2021 trimester regardless of region and age group. Excess deaths were observed in the Southeast region for the 25-36-year-old age group regardless of the trimester assessed, and in the North, Central-West and South regions, the only period in which excess deaths were not observed was September-November 2020. Excess deaths regardless of trimester were observed in the 37-49-year-old age group in the North region, and the South region displayed explosive behavior from March-May 2021, with a 375% excess of deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Excess maternal deaths, with geographically heterogenous trajectories and consistently high patterns at the time of the epidemic's greatest impact, reflect not only the previous effect of socioeconomic inequalities and of limited access to maternal health services, but most of all the precarious management of Brazil's health crisis.

Respiratory support in patients with severe COVID-19 in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection (ISARIC) COVID-19 study: a prospective, multinational, observational study

BACKGROUND

Up to 30% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 require advanced respiratory support, including high-flow nasal cannulas (HFNC), non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIV), or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics, outcomes and risk factors for failing non-invasive respiratory support in patients treated with severe COVID-19 during the first two years of the pandemic in high-income countries (HICs) and low middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

This is a multinational, multicentre, prospective cohort study embedded in the ISARIC-WHO COVID-19 Clinical Characterisation Protocol. Patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who required hospital admission were recruited prospectively. Patients treated with HFNC, NIV, or IMV within the first 24 h of hospital admission were included in this study. Descriptive statistics, random forest, and logistic regression analyses were used to describe clinical characteristics and compare clinical outcomes among patients treated with the different types of advanced respiratory support.

RESULTS

A total of 66,565 patients were included in this study. Overall, 82.6% of patients were treated in HIC, and 40.6% were admitted to the hospital during the first pandemic wave. During the first 24 h after hospital admission, patients in HICs were more frequently treated with HFNC (48.0%), followed by NIV (38.6%) and IMV (13.4%). In contrast, patients admitted in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) were less frequently treated with HFNC (16.1%) and the majority received IMV (59.1%). The failure rate of non-invasive respiratory support (i.e. HFNC or NIV) was 15.5%, of which 71.2% were from HIC and 28.8% from LMIC. The variables most strongly associated with non-invasive ventilation failure, defined as progression to IMV, were high leukocyte counts at hospital admission (OR [95%CI]; 5.86 [4.83-7.10]), treatment in an LMIC (OR [95%CI]; 2.04 [1.97-2.11]), and tachypnoea at hospital admission (OR [95%CI]; 1.16 [1.14-1.18]). Patients who failed HFNC/NIV had a higher 28-day fatality ratio (OR [95%CI]; 1.27 [1.25-1.30]).

CONCLUSIONS

In the present international cohort, the most frequently used advanced respiratory support was the HFNC. However, IMV was used more often in LMIC. Higher leucocyte count, tachypnoea, and treatment in LMIC were risk factors for HFNC/NIV failure. HFNC/NIV failure was related to worse clinical outcomes, such as 28-day mortality. Trial registration This is a prospective observational study; therefore, no health care interventions were applied to participants, and trial registration is not applicable.

Viable SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant detected in aerosols in a residential setting with a self-isolating college student with COVID-19

The B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in India in October of 2020 and spread widely to over 145 countries, comprising over 99% of genome sequence-confirmed virus in COVID-19 cases of the United States (US) by September 2021. The rise in COVID-19 cases due to the Delta variant coincided with a return to in-person school attendance, straining COVID-19 mitigation plans implemented by educational institutions. Some plans required sick students to self-isolate off-campus, resulting in an unintended consequence: exposure of co-inhabitants of dwellings used by the sick person during isolation. We assessed air and surface samples collected from the bedroom of a self-isolating university student with mild COVID-19 for the presence of SARS-CoV-2. That virus' RNA was detected by real-time reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (rRT-qPCR) in air samples from both an isolation bedroom and a distal, non-isolation room of the same dwelling. SARS-CoV-2 was detected and viable virus was isolated in cell cultures from aerosol samples as well as from the surface of a mobile phone. Genomic sequencing revealed that the virus was a Delta variant SARS-CoV-2 strain. Taken together, the results of this work confirm the presence of viable SARS-CoV-2 within a residential living space of a person with COVID-19 and show potential for transportation of virus-laden aerosols beyond a designated isolation suite to other areas of a single-family home.

Excess suicides in Brazil: Inequalities according to age groups and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has already claimed more than six million direct deaths. Low-and middle-income countries, such Brazil, were severely hit, not only due to direct effects on mortality, but also for its indirect effects on other causes of deaths.

AIMS

The objective of this study was to estimate the excess suicides in Brazil and evaluate patterns within and between its regions during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

METHOD

The observed suicides are gathered from the mortality information system of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The estimates of expected suicides, according to sex, age group, bimonthly period and region, were reached through quasi-Poisson generalized additive models, with adjustment for overdispersion. The analyses were performed in R software, version 3.6.1 and RStudio, version 1.2.1335.

RESULTS

From March 2020 to December 2020, 10,409 suicides were observed in Brazil, resulting in an overall decrease of 13%, in comparison to the expected rate for the period. There were excess suicides of 26% in men from the Northern region in the 60 years and more age group, as well as in women from the Northern region in the 30 to 59 years age group in two consecutive bimonthly periods. Excess suicides of 40% was also observed in women in the 60 years and more age group from the Northeastern region.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the overall decrease in suicides in Brazil over the period assessed, substantial excess suicides were observed in different age groups and sexes from the Northern and Northeastern regions of the country, which are regions that are historically more prone to health and socioeconomic inequalities.

Primary healthcare protects vulnerable populations from inequity in COVID-19 vaccination: An ecological analysis of nationwide data from Brazil

Background

There is limited information on the inequity of access to vaccination in low-and-middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we described the progression of the Brazilian immunisation program for COVID-19, and the association of socioeconomic development with vaccination rates, considering the potential protective effect of primary health care coverage.

Methods

We performed an ecological analysis of COVID-19 immunisation data from the Brazilian National Immunization Program from January 17 to August 31, 2021. We analysed the dynamics of vaccine coverage in the adult population of 5,570 Brazilian municipalities. We estimated the association of human development index (HDI) levels (low, medium, and high) with age-sex standardised first dose coverage using a multivariable negative binomial regression model. We evaluated the interaction between the HDI and primary health care coverage. Finally, we compared the adjusted monthly progression of vaccination rates, hospital admission and in-hospital death rates among HDI levels.

Findings

From January 17 to August 31, 2021, 202,427,355 COVID-19 vaccine doses were administered in Brazil. By the end of the period, 64·2% of adults had first and 31·4% second doses, with more than 90% of those aged ≥60 years with primary scheme completed. Four distinct vaccine platforms were used in the country, ChAdOx1-S/nCoV-19, Sinovac-CoronaVac, BNT162b2, Ad26.COV2.S, composing 44·8%, 33·2%, 19·6%, and 2·4% of total doses, respectively. First dose coverage differed between municipalities with high, medium, and low HDI (Median [interquartile range] 72 [66, 79], 68 [61, 75] and 63 [55, 70] doses per 100 people, respectively). Municipalities with low (Rate Ratio [RR, 95% confidence interval]: 0·87 [0·85-0·88]) and medium (RR [95% CI]: 0·94 [0·93-0·95]) development were independently associated with lower vaccination rates compared to those with high HDI. Primary health care coverage modified the association of HDI and vaccination rate, improving vaccination rates in those municipalities of low HDI and high primary health care coverage. Low HDI municipalities presented a delayed decrease in adjusted in-hospital death rates by first dose coverage compared to high HDI locations.

Interpretation

In Brazil, socioeconomic disparities negatively impacted the first dose vaccination rate. However, the primary health care mitigated these disparities, suggesting that the primary health care coverage guarantees more equitable access to vaccines in vulnerable locations.

Funding

This work is part of the Grand Challenges ICODA pilot initiative, delivered by Health Data Research UK and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Minderoo Foundation. This study was supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) - Finance Code 001, Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ) and the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro.

Epidemiologic Profile of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection in Brazil During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Epidemiological Study

Background

The COVID-19 is a significant public health issue, and monitoring confirmed cases and deaths is an essential epidemiologic tool. We evaluated the features in Brazilian hospitalized patients due to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We grouped the patients into the following categories: Influenza virus infection (G1), other respiratory viruses' infection (G2), other known etiologic agents (G3), SARS-CoV-2 infection (patients with COVID-19, G4), and undefined etiological agent (G5).

Methods

We performed an epidemiological study using data from DataSUS (https://opendatasus.saude.gov.br/) from December 2019 to October 2021. The dataset included Brazilian hospitalized patients due to SARI. We considered the clinical evolution of the patients with SARI during the COVID-19 pandemic according to the SARI patient groups as the outcome. We performed the multivariate statistical analysis using logistic regression, and we adopted an Alpha error of 0.05.

Results

A total of 2,740,272 patients were hospitalized due to SARI in Brazil, being the São Paulo state responsible for most of the cases [802,367 (29.3%)]. Most of the patients were male (1,495,416; 54.6%), aged between 25 and 60 years (1,269,398; 46.3%), and were White (1,105,123; 49.8%). A total of 1,577,279 (68.3%) patients recovered from SARI, whereas 701,607 (30.4%) died due to SARI, and 30,551 (1.3%) did not have their deaths related to SARI. A major part of the patients was grouped in G4 (1,817,098; 66.3%) and G5 (896,207; 32.7%). The other groups account for &lt;1% of our sample [G1: 3,474 (0.1%), G2: 16,627 (0.6%), and G3: 6,866 (0.3%)]. The deaths related to SARI were more frequent in G4 (574,887; 34.7%); however, the deaths not related to SARI were more frequent among the patients categorized into the G3 (1,339; 21.3%) and G5 (25,829; 4.1%). In the multivariate analysis, the main predictors to classify the patients in the G5 when compared with G4 or G1-G4 were female sex, younger age, Black race, low educational level, rural place of residence, and the use of antiviral to treat the clinical signs. Furthermore, several features predict the risk of death by SARI, such as older age, race (Black, Indigenous, and multiracial background), low educational level, residence in a flu outbreak region, need for intensive care unit, and need for mechanical ventilatory support.

Conclusions

The possible COVID-19 underreporting (G5) might be associated with an enhanced mortality rate, more evident in distinct social groups. In addition, the patients' features are unequal between the patients' groups and can be used to determine the risk of possible COVID-19 underreporting in our population. Patients with a higher risk of death had a different epidemiological profile when compared with patients who recovered from SARI, like older age, Black, Indigenous, and multiracial background races, low educational level, residence in a flu outbreak region, need for intensive care unit and need for mechanical ventilatory support.

Factors associated with, and variations in, COVID-19 hospital death rates in England's first two waves: observational study

OBJECTIVES

To assess patient-level and hospital-level predictors of death and variation in death rates following admission for COVID-19 in England's first two waves after accounting for random variation. To quantify the correlation between hospitals' first and second wave death rates.

DESIGN

Observational study using administrative data.

SETTING

Acute non-specialist hospitals in England.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients admitted with a primary diagnosis of COVID-19.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

In-hospital death.

RESULTS

Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data were extracted for all acute hospitals in England for COVID-19 admissions from March 2020 to March 2021. In wave 1 (March to July 2020), there were 74 484 admissions and 21 883 deaths (crude rate 29.4%); in wave 2 (August 2020 to March 2021), there were 165 642 admissions and 36 040 deaths (21.8%). Wave 2 patients were younger, with more hypertension and obesity but lower rates of other comorbidities. Mortality improved for all ages; in wave 2, it peaked in December 2020 at 24.2% (lower than wave 1's peak) but halved by March 2021. In multiple multilevel modelling combining HES with hospital-level data from Situational Reports, wave 2 and wave 1 variables significantly associated with death were mostly the same. The median odds ratio for wave 1 was just 1.05 and for wave 2 was 1.07. At 99.8% control limits, 3% of hospitals were high and 7% were low funnel plot outliers in wave 1; these figures were 9% and 12% for wave 2. Four hospitals were (low) outliers in both waves. The correlation between hospitals' adjusted mortality rates between waves was 0.45 (p<0.0001). Length of stay was similar in each wave.

CONCLUSIONS

England's first two COVID-19 waves were similar regarding predictors and moderate interhospital variation. Despite the challenges, variation in death rates and length of stay between hospitals was modest and might be accounted for by unobserved patient factors.

A Brief Analysis of a New Device to Prevent Early Intubation in Hypoxemic Patients: An Observational Study

The need for mechanical ventilation is one of the main concerns related to the care of patients with COVID-19. The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of a bubble device for oxygen supplementation. This device was implemented for the selected patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 pneumonia with persistent low oxygen saturation. Patients were selected in three major COVID-19 hospitals of Bahia state in Brazil from July to November 2020, where they remained with the device for seven days and were monitored for different factors, such as vital signs, oximetry evaluation, and arterial blood gasometry. Among the 51 patients included in the study, 68.63% successfully overcame hypoxemia without the necessity to be transferred to mechanical ventilation, whereas 31.37% required tracheal intubation (p value < 0.05). There was no difference of note on the analysis of the clinical data, chemistry, and hematological evaluation, with the exception of the SpO2 on follow-up days. Multivariate analysis revealed that the independent variable, male sex, SpO2, and non-inhaled mask, was associated with the necessity of requiring early mechanical ventilation. We concluded that this bubble device should be a prior step to be utilized before indication of mechanical ventilation in patients with persistent hypoxemia of severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

Temporal trends in the epidemiology of inflammatory bowel diseases in the public healthcare system in Brazil: A large population-based study

Background

Population-based data on epidemiology of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases (IBD) in Brazil are scarce. This study aims to define temporal trends of incidence and prevalence rates of Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) in Brazil.

Methods

All IBD patients from the public healthcare national system were included from January 2012 to December 2020. Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using log-linear regression for incidence and binomial regression for prevalence. Moran's I autocorrelation index was used to analyse clustering of cities by level of prevalence.

Findings

A total of 212,026 IBD patients were included. Incidence of IBD rose from 9.4 in 2012 to 9.6 per 100,000 in 2020 (AAPC=0.8%; 95% CI -0.37, 1.99); for UC, incidence increased from 5.7 to 6.9 per 100,000 (AAPC=3.0%; 95% CI 1.51, 4.58) and for CD incidence decreased from 3.7 to 2.7 per 100,000 (AAPC=-3.2%; 95% CI -4.45, -2.02). Prevalence of IBD increased from 30.0 in 2012 to 100.1 per 100,000 in 2020 (AAPC=14.8%; CI 14.78-14.95); for UC, from 15.7 to 56.5 per 100,000 (AAPC=16.0%; CI 15.94, 16.17); for CD from 12.6 to 33.7 per 100,000 (AAPC=12.1% CI 11.95, 12.02). A south-north gradient was observed in 2020 prevalence rates of IBD [I=0.40 (p<0.0001)], CD [I=0.22 (p<0.0001)] and UC [I=0.42 (p<0.0001)].

Interpretation

Incidence of CD is decreasing whereas of UC is increasing, leading to stabilization in the incidence of IBD from 2012 to 2020 in Brazil. Prevalence of IBD has been climbing with 0.1% of Brazilians living with IBD in 2020.

Funding

None.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a Brazilian hospital: a retrospective study of the first and second waves

•

This study describes the characteristics and outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a Brazilian hospital.

•

Characteristics from the first and second waves were compared.

•

The number of cases was higher in the second wave, but hospitalizations were lower, compared with the first wave.

•

Admission and death rates were slightly lower in the study hospital compared with national rates.

•

This study can help managers to plan resources needed for the treatment of patients with COVID-19.

Objectives

To describe clinical characteristics, hospitalization flow and outcomes in a cohort of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a Brazilian hospital in the first and second waves of the pandemic.

Methods

This retrospective, observational study included patients with confirmed COVID-19 who were evaluated in the emergency department (ED) between 1 March 2020 and 30 June 2021. Descriptive statistics have been used to report clinical characteristics, admissions and outcomes. Comparison between the two waves was inferred using hypothesis test techniques.

Results

During the study period, 7723 (86.54%) patients were evaluated in the ED, of which 1908 (24.70%) were admitted. Of these, 476 (24.95%) patients were initially allocated to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 1432 (75.05%) to the general ward. Of the patients initially allocated to the general ward, 349 (24.37%) were later transferred to the ICU. One hundred and fifty-eight patients were intubated (19.15% of ICU admissions) and 110 patients died (5.77% of all admissions). In the second wave, the admission rates decreased in both the ICU (from 13.84% to 9.56%; P<0.01) and the general ward (from 22.41% to 17.16%; P<0.01). The average age in the second wave decreased from 44.06 to 41.87 years (P<0.01). Patients with severe symptoms, such as dyspnoea, decreased from 25.51% to 13.13% (P<0.01) in the second wave. The death rate among admitted patients decreased by 17.84% (from 6.52% to 5.38%; P<0.01).

Conclusion

Despite the greater number of patients in the second wave, the admission and death rates were lower compared with the first wave. The mean age of patients was lower in the second wave, and patients arrived at the hospital with less severe symptoms compared with the first wave.

Comparison of the First and Second Waves of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic in Children and Adolescents in a Middle-Income Country: Clinical Impact Associated with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Gamma Lineage

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the severity and clinical outcomes of the SARS-CoV-2 gamma variant in children and adolescents hospitalized with COVID-19 in Brazil.

STUDY DESIGN

In this observational retrospective cohort study, we performed an analysis of all 21 591 hospitalized patients aged <20 years with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection registered in a national database in Brazil. The cohort was divided into 2 groups according to the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 lineages (WAVE1, n = 11 574; WAVE2, n = 10 017). The characteristics of interest were age, sex, geographic region, ethnicity, clinical presentation, and comorbidities. The primary outcome was time to death, which was evaluated by competing-risks analysis, using cumulative incidence functions. A predictive Fine and Gray competing-risks model was developed based on the WAVE1 cohort with temporal validation in the WAVE2 cohort.

RESULTS

Compared with children and adolescents admitted during the first wave, those admitted during the second wave had significantly more hypoxemia (52.5% vs 41.1%; P < .0001) and intensive care unit admissions (28.3% vs 24.9%; P < .0001) and needed more noninvasive ventilatory support (37.3% vs 31.6%; P < .0001). In-hospital deaths and death rates were 896 (7.7%) in the first wave and 765 (7.6%) in the second wave (P = .07). The prediction model of death included age, ethnicity, region, respiratory symptoms, and comorbidities. In the validation set (WAVE2), the C statistic was 0.750 (95% CI, 0.741-0.758; P < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

This large national study found a more severe spectrum of risk for pediatric patients with COVID-19 caused by the gamma variant. However, there was no difference regarding the probability of death between the waves.

SARS-CoV-2 Molecular Epidemiology Can Be Enhanced by Occupational Health: The Experience of Monitoring Variants of Concern in Workplaces in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to extra caution in workplaces to avoid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In the occupational environment, SARS-CoV-2 testing is a powerful approach in providing valuable information to detect, monitor, and mitigate the spread of the virus and preserve productivity. Here a centralized Occupational Health Center provided molecular diagnosis and genomic sequences for companies and industries in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. From May to August 2021, around 20% of the SARS-CoV-2 positive nasopharyngeal swabs from routinely tested workers were sequenced and reproduced the replacement of Gamma with Delta variant observed in regular surveillance programs. Moreover, as a proof-of-concept on the sensibility of the occupational health genomic surveillance program described here, it was also found: i) the primo-identification of B.1.139 and A.2.5 viral genomes in Brazil and ii) an improved dating of Delta VoC evolution, by identifying earlier cases associated with AY-related genomes. We interpret that SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing of workers, independent of symptom presentation, provides an earlier opportunity to identify variants. Thus, considering the continuous monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in workplaces, positive samples from occupation health programs should be regarded as essential to improve the knowledge on virus genetic diversity and VoC emergence.

Human Development Index Is Associated with COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in Brazil: An Ecological Study

The Human Development Index measures a region's development and is a step for development debate beyond the traditional, economic perspective. It can also determine the success of a country's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly affecting the case fatality rate among severe cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to associate the Human Development Index with the case fatality rate due to COVID-19 in each Brazilian state and the Federal District, taking into account comorbidities and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. We also evaluated the influence of the GINI index, number of intensive care unit beds, and occupied households in subnormal clusters on the case fatality rate. We performed an ecological study including two populations: COVID-19 individuals that did not require the mechanical ventilation protocol; and COVID-19 individuals under invasive mechanical ventilation. We performed a Pearson correlation test and a univariate linear regression analysis on the relationship between Human Development Index, Human Development Index-Education Level, Human Development Index-Life Expectancy, and Human Development Index-Gross National Income per capita and COVID-19 deaths. The same analyses were performed using the other markers. We grouped the patients with COVID-19 according to comorbidities and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. Alpha = 0.05. We included 848,501 COVID-19 individuals, out of which 153,710 needed invasive mechanical ventilation and 314,164 died, and 280,533 COVID-19 individuals without comorbidity, out of which 33,312 needed invasive mechanical ventilation and 73,723 died. We observed a low negative Pearson correlation between the Human Development Index and death and a moderate negative Pearson correlation between the Human Development Index and deaths of individuals on invasive mechanical ventilation, with or without comorbidity. The univariate linear analysis showed the case fatality rate depends on at least 20-40% of the Human Development Index. In Brazil, regions with a low Human Development Index demonstrated a higher case fatality rate due to COVID-19, mainly in individuals who needed invasive mechanical ventilation, than regions with a higher Human Development Index. Although other indexes studied, such as intensive care unit beds and GINI, were also associated with the COVID-19 case fatality rate, they were not as relevant as the Human Development Index. Brazil is a vast territory comprising cultural, social, and economic diversity, which mirrors the diversity of the Human Development Index. Brazil is a model nation for the study of the Human Development Index's influence on aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as its impact on the case fatality rate.

Dynamics of hospitalizations and in-hospital deaths from COVID-19 in Northeast Brazil: a retrospective analysis based on the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination coverage

This study investigated the dynamics of hospitalizations and in-hospital deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) throughout the pandemic in northeast Brazil, the Brazilian region with the worst socioeconomic indicators. In total, 141,445 cases, 8,213 hospital admissions, and 1,644 in-hospital deaths from COVID-19 were registered from March 14, 2020 to February 5, 2022. The overall rates of hospitalization and in-hospital deaths were 5.8% and 20.0%, respectively. The hospitalization and death rates significantly decreased over time, which may have been related to progress in vaccination. During the spread of the Gamma variant (January to June 2021), most hospitalized individuals were young adults, and approximately 40% of deaths occurred in this age group. During the predominance of Delta (July to December 2021), over 75% of deaths occurred among the elderly and unvaccinated or partially vaccinated individuals. This rate decreased to 42.3% during the transmission of the Omicron variant (January to February 2022), during which 34.6% of deaths were recorded among fully vaccinated individuals (2 doses) and 23.1% among those who received full vaccination and a booster. The Omicron-driven third wave was associated with a rise in the proportion of deaths among vaccinated individuals, especially among those who had not received a booster dose.

Risk factors for COVID-19-related mortality in hospitalized children and adolescents with diabetes mellitus: An observational retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes has been recognized as a major comorbidity for COVID-19 severity in adults. This study aimed to characterize the clinical outcomes and risk factors for COVID-19-related death in a large cohort of hospitalized pediatric patients with diabetes.

METHODS

We performed an analysis of all pediatric patients with diabetes and COVID-19 registered in SIVEP-Gripe, a Brazilian nationwide surveillance database, between February 2020 and May 2021. The primary outcome was time to death, which was evaluated considering discharge as a competitive risk by using cumulative incidence function.

RESULTS

Among 21,591 hospitalized pediatric patients with COVID-19, 379 (1.8%) had diabetes. Overall, children and adolescents with diabetes had a higher prevalence of ICU admission (46.6% vs. 26%), invasive ventilation (16.9% vs. 10.3%), and death (15% vs. 7.6%) (all P < 0.0001). Children with diabetes had twice the hazard of death compared with pediatric patients without diabetes (Hazard ratio [HR] = 2.0, 95% CI, 1.58-2.66). Among children with diabetes, four covariates were independently associated with the primary outcome, living in the poorest regions of the country (Northeast, HR, 2.17, 95% CI 1.18-4.01, and North, (HR 4.0, 95% CI 1.79-8.94), oxygen saturation < 95% at admission (HR 2.97, 95% CI 1.64-5.36), presence of kidney disorders (HR 3.39, 95% CI 1.42-8.09), and presence of obesity (HR 3.77, 95% CI 1.83-7.76).

CONCLUSION

Children and adolescents with diabetes had a higher risk of death compared with patients without diabetes. The higher risk of death was associated with clinical and socioeconomic factors.

Epidemiology of COVID-19 after Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant, Brazilian Amazon, 2020-2021

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Gamma variant has been hypothesized to cause more severe illness than previous variants, especially in children. Successive SARS-CoV-2 IgG serosurveys in the Brazilian Amazon showed that age-specific attack rates and proportions of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections were similar before and after Gamma variant emergence.

Forecasting the Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic Amidst the Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Adoption of ARIMA Model

Currently, the global report of COVID-19 cases is around 110 million, and more than 2.43 million related death cases as of February 18, 2021. Viruses continuously change through mutation; hence, different virus of SARS-CoV-2 has been reported globally. The United Kingdom (UK), South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria are the countries from which these emerged variants have been notified and now spreading globally. Therefore, these countries have been selected as a research sample for the present study. The datasets analyzed in this study spanned from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021, and were obtained from the World Health Organization website. The study used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast coronavirus incidence in the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria. ARIMA models with minimum Akaike Information Criterion Correction (AICc) and statistically significant parameters were chosen as the best models in this research. Accordingly, for the new confirmed cases, ARIMA (3,1,14), ARIMA (0,1,11), ARIMA (1,0,10), and ARIMA (1,1,14) models were chosen for the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, respectively. Also, the model specification for the confirmed death cases was ARIMA (3,0,4), ARIMA (0,1,4), ARIMA (1,0,7), and ARIMA (Brown); models were selected for the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, respectively. The results of the ARIMA model forecasting showed that if the required measures are not taken by the respective governments and health practitioners in the days to come, the magnitude of the coronavirus pandemic is expected to increase in the study's selected countries.

Adult patients admitted to a tertiary hospital for COVID-19 and risk factors associated with severity: a retrospective cohort study

COVID-19 is a disease whose knowledge is still under construction, high transmissibility, with no consensual treatment available to everyone. Therefore, the identification of patients at higher risk of evolving to the critical form of the disease is fundamental. The study aimed to determine risk factors associated with the severity of COVID-19 in adults patients. This is an observational, retrospective study from a cohort of adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to a public hospital from March to August 2020, whose medical records were evaluated. For the association of possible severity predictors, a Poisson regression was used. The primary outcome was the critical form of the disease (need for admission to the Intensive Care Unit and/or invasive mechanical ventilation). We included 565 patients: mostly men; 55.5% of those who progressed to the critical form of the disease were over sixty years old. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus and obesity were the most frequent comorbidities. There were 39.8% of patients who progressed to the critical form of the disease. The hospital mortality rate was 22.1%, and that of critical patients was 46.7%. The independent factors associated with the severity of the disease were obesity [RR = 1.33 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.66; p = 0.011)], SpO₂/FiO₂ ratio ≤ 315 [RR = 2.20 (95% CI 1.79 to 2.71; p = 0.000)], C-reactive protein > 100 mg/L [RR = 1.65 (95% CI 1.33 to 2.06; p = 0.000)], and lymphocytes < 1,000/µL [RR = 1.44 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.75; p = 0.000)]. Advanced age and comorbidities were dependent factors strongly associated with the critical form of the disease.

Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Requiring Invasive Mechanical Ventilation in Mexico in the First, Second, and Exponential Growth Phase of the Third Wave of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic

A total of 3,197,108 coronavirus disease 2019 cases (2,537 cases per 100,000 people) and 252,080 deaths (200 deaths per 100,000 people) were recorded in Mexico as of August 20, 2021. There were 36,934 of 203,582 coronavirus disease 2019 patients (18.1%) that required invasive mechanical ventilation during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019, 24,698 of 253,899 (9.7%) patients during the second wave, and 5,610 of 65,952 (8.5%) during the exponential growth phase of the third wave (p < 0.001). The proportion of patients who received invasive mechanical ventilation in the ICU was lower in the first wave (27.9%) and then remained between 33.3% and 36.2% for the remainder of that period. Although the inhospital mortality of hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 patients requiring intubation during the exponential growth phase of the third wave was lower than that in the first and second waves, the inhospital mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation remained greater than 82%.

Effectiveness of the CoronaVac vaccine in older adults during a gamma variant associated epidemic of covid-19 in Brazil: test negative case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effectiveness of the inactivated whole virus vaccine, CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech), against symptomatic covid-19 in the elderly population of São Paulo state, Brazil during widespread circulation of the gamma variant.

DESIGN

Test negative case-control study.

SETTING

Community testing for covid-19 in São Paulo state, Brazil.

PARTICIPANTS

43 774 adults aged ≥70 years who were residents of São Paulo state and underwent reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 from 17 January to 29 April 2021. 26 433 cases with symptomatic covid-19 and 17 622 test negative controls with covid-19 symptoms were formed into 13 283 matched sets, one case with to up to five controls, according to age, sex, self-reported race, municipality of residence, previous covid-19 status, and date of RT-PCR test (±3 days).

INTERVENTION

Vaccination with a two dose regimen of CoronaVac.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic covid-19 and associated hospital admissions and deaths.

RESULTS

Adjusted vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic covid-19 was 24.7% (95% confidence interval 14.7% to 33.4%) at 0-13 days and 46.8% (38.7% to 53.8%) at ≥14 days after the second dose. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness against hospital admissions was 55.5% (46.5% to 62.9%) and against deaths was 61.2% (48.9% to 70.5%) at ≥14 days after the second dose. Vaccine effectiveness ≥14 days after the second dose was highest for the youngest age group (70-74 years)-59.0% (43.7% to 70.2%) against symptomatic disease, 77.6% (62.5% to 86.7%) against hospital admissions, and 83.9% (59.2% to 93.7%) against deaths-and declined with increasing age.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination with CoronaVac was associated with a reduction in symptomatic covid-19, hospital admissions, and deaths in adults aged ≥70 years in a setting with extensive transmission of the gamma variant. Vaccine protection was, however, low until completion of the two dose regimen, and vaccine effectiveness was observe to decline with increasing age among this elderly population.