Cost-effectiveness of universal screening for chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China: an economic evaluation

Modeling hepatitis B-related deaths in China to achieve the WHO's impact target

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) targets a 65% reduction in hepatitis B-related deaths by 2030 compared to 2015 to eliminate viral hepatitis as a major public health threat. It is unknown whether and how China can achieve this target despite significant intervention achievements. We aimed to predict the hepatitis B-related deaths in China and identify key developments needed to achieve the target.

Methods

An age- and time-dependent dynamic hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission compartmental model was developed to predict the trend of hepatitis B-related deaths under base-case and subsequent scenarios from 2015 to 2040. In base-case scenario, we assumed the diagnosis and treatment (D&T) rate would reach 72% in 2030, as proposed by WHO. Subsequent scenarios were set based on the results of base-case and one-way sensitivity analysis.

Results

Compared with 2015, hepatitis B-related deaths would be reduced by 23.89% in 2030 and 51.79% in 2040, respectively, and the WHO's impact target of 65% reduction would not be achieved until 2038 at the earliest under base-case scenario. HBV clearance rate and current treatment effectiveness were the most sensitive parameters that significantly influenced the decline of hepatitis B-related deaths from 2015 to 2040. In the subsequent scenario, when D&T rate improving to 90% by 2030, with the current treatment effectiveness and HBV clearance rate being optimized from 2016, the WHO's impact target would be achieved in 2038. Increasing the clearance rate further from 2% to 2.8% during 2016-2030 linearly, the impact target would be achieved on time.

Conclusions

It is difficult for China to achieve the WHO's impact target of 65% reduction in hepatitis B-related deaths by 2030 even we assumed the D&T rate would reach 72% in 2030 and beyond. A comprehensive scale-up of available strategies, especially innovative drugs and technologies will ensure that China achieves the target on schedule.

Cost-Effectiveness of Universal Screen-and-Treat Strategies for Reducing Morbidity and Mortality of Chronic Hepatitis B in a High-Endemicity City

In the setting of high hepatitis B virus (HBV) endemicity, we studied the cost-effectiveness of universal HBV screen-and-treat strategies for averting HBV-related morbidity and mortality in Hong Kong, where diagnosis and treatment coverages are low. An age-sex-specific compartmental model for 2000-2040 was developed, with the incorporation of population-based screening strategies targeting different age groups. With a one-time HBV screening programme in 2025-2029, 3.6%-8.9% of HBV-related deaths could be averted. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the screening strategies with primary-care-based management in different scenarios with components of annual drug cost levels, screening programme duration, starting year and targeted age groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated, with the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold set at USD100,000/quality-adjusted life years (QALY). At the standard drug cost level, only the screening strategy targeting the 40-49 years old is cost-saving. When drug cost decreases to a low level, the strategy targeting the 35-49 years old (ICER USD97,042/QALY gained) is likely to be cost-effective and screening 35-59 years old is marginally cost-effective. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, screening 40-49 years old (50%) and 35-59 years old (42%) have a half-half probability of being the most cost-effective at USD100,000/QALY WTP threshold, but increased to 93% for screening 35-59 years old at USD150,000/QALY threshold. From scenario analysis, deferred initiation of screening and unlimited programme duration would increase the ICER. Universal HBV screening targeting individuals aged 35-59 years or 40-49 years in the general population, with an earlier start and limited duration of the programme, is likely to be cost-effective.

Acceptability, applicability, and cost-utility of artificial-intelligence-powered low-cost portable fundus camera for diabetic retinopathy screening in primary health care settings

AIMS

To evaluate the acceptability, applicability, and cost-utility of AI-powered portable fundus cameras for diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening in Hong Kong, providing a viable alternative screening solution for resource-limited areas.

METHODS

This pragmatic trial conducted in an optometric clinic and two optical shops. A self-testing system was used, integrating a portable fundus camera and AI software that automatically identified DR. Three months following the screening, selected participants were invited to complete an open-ended questionnaire.

RESULTS

A total of 316 subjects participated, with age of 60.80 ± 8.30 years. The success rate of the self-testing system without active assistance was 89 %. Among 61 subjects who completed follow-up interview, a majority agreed that the system and report were easy to follow and understand (85.3 % and 75.4 %). The satisfaction rate was 64 %, and the willingness to use again was 80 %. The AI screening showed a cost saving of 6312.92 USD per QALY, while the adjusted AI model saved 18639. AI screening and adjusted model outperformed traditional screening (Net Monetary Benefit 367,863.31 and 354,904.76 vs 339,919.83 USD).

CONCLUSIONS

The AI-powered portable fundus camera demonstrated high acceptability and applicability in real-world settings, suggesting that AI screening could be a viable alternative in resource-limited settings.

Effectiveness of catch-up vaccination from 2009 to 2011 on incidence of hepatitis B in Guangzhou, China: a time series analysis

BACKGROUND

The high prevalence of hepatitis B weighs heavily on public health in China. In 2009, a catch-up vaccination program for children aged 8-15y was implemented to curb hepatitis B, while the effectiveness of this intervention has not been investigated. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of catch-up vaccination on the incidence of hepatitis B in Guangzhou, China.

METHODS

We obtained individual data of all hepatitis B cases from 2005 to 2019 in Guangzhou from Guangzhou Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Based on daily reported number of cases, we constructed generalized linear models to estimate the effectiveness of the intervention on the incidence of hepatitis B in each age group from 11 to 25 years. We further estimated the age-standardized effectiveness. Finally, we examined the effectiveness in different subgroups by sex and clinical types of hepatitis B.

RESULTS

A total of 58,204 hepatitis B cases among individuals aged 11-25y were reported in Guangzhou from 2005 to 2019, with an average annual age-standardized incidence of 117.30 cases per 100,000 individuals. The catch-up vaccination contributed to an age-standardized 20.02% (95% confidence interval: 15.97%, 23.87%) decrease in the hepatitis B incidence among individuals aged 11-25y and prevented an annual age-standardized average of 17.40 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 9.24, 23.78) cases per 100,000 individuals from hepatitis B during the study period. The intervention could better protect males (excess incidence rate [EIR]: -21.82 [95% eCI: -30.51, -10.15] cases per 100,000 individuals), and prevent chronic cases (EIR: -24.27 [95% eCI: -30.62, -16.09] cases per 100,000 individuals).

CONCLUSIONS

The massive catch-up vaccination against hepatitis B among children plays an important role in alleviating the burden of hepatitis B.

Expanding treatment indications in chronic hepatitis B: Should we treat all patients?

Nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) are first-line agents for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Current guidelines provide recommendations for NUC initiation, yet the guidelines are complex and restrictive. Accumulating data on hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication and HBV integration suggests that there are no real quiescent disease phases in CHB, and treatment-ineligible patients in current guidelines still have substantial risks of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Expanding CHB treatment indications can effectively reduce the risks of liver-related complications. Furthermore, treatment indication expansion can be cost-effective, and can simplify care pathways to remove treatment barriers. Potential caveats for treatment expansion include risks of non-compliance, long-term side effects from NUCs, and poor patient acceptability. Nonetheless, these caveats are not insurmountable, and the benefits of treatment expansion outweigh the disadvantages. There is consensus among hepatologists in supporting treatment indication expansion, although expert panels have varying recommendations on treatment strategies. A treat-all approach, which involves treating all CHB patients, has also been proposed. A treat-all strategy is straightforward, and should yield the greatest benefits from a population health perspective. However, the feasibility of new treatment strategies, especially the treat-all approach, is influenced by multiple factors including local epidemiology, healthcare resource availability, and socioeconomic factors. A one-size-fits-all approach is not optimal, and treatment expansion strategies that are tailored based on local data should yield the greatest impact toward hepatitis elimination.

Cost-benefit analysis of pharmacist early active consultation in patients with multidrug-resistant bacteria in China

BACKGROUND

Although Pharmacist Early Active Consultation (PEAC) has demonstrated clinical benefits in patients with multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs), its cost-effectiveness in China remains insufficiently studied.

AIM

This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PEAC in patients with MDROs from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system.

METHOD

A historically controlled study was conducted on 100 MDRO-infected patients, including 37 who received PEAC and 63 who did not. The effective treatment rate and duration of the symptoms were assessed. A decision tree model was developed using model inputs derived from the study. The primary endpoints included incremental cost per MDRO treatment and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Uncertainty was evaluated using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

The effective treatment rate increased to 89.1% in the PEAC group compared with 62.1% in the no-consultation group. Patients in the PEAC group experienced a 2.1-day shorter duration of symptoms than those without consultation (15.5 days vs. 17.6 days, P = 0.04). The base case analysis estimated that the PEAC group gained 0.189 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at a cost of $18,209.7, while the no-consultation group gained 0.177 QALYs at a cost of $23,831.1. The PEAC group was more cost-effective, yielding an ICER of - $475,499.0 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that PEAC was cost-effective in 60.1% of cases, with costs remaining below the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold, supporting PEAC as a cost-effective strategy for managing MDRO infections.

CONCLUSION

Pharmacist Early Active Consultation was a more cost-effective strategy than no consultation for treating MDRO infections in patients in China.

Development of the Short Form for Chronic Hepatitis B Quality of Life Instrument (CHBQOL-SF) Using Delphi Method and Rasch Analysis

To refine the 23-item chronic Hepatitis B quality of life instrument (CHBQOL) using the modified Delphi method and Rasch model analysis, this study conducted a secondary data analysis on 578 chronic Hepatitis B (CHB) patients. The preliminary evaluation of the item's importance of the original CHBQOL and the final review of the short form of CHBQOL (CHBQOL-SF) were collected by the Delphi method. A bi-factor model was estimated and Rasch analysis with partial credit model was performed on each domain of the CHBQOL. Six items were suggested to remove based on the Delphi results. The fit of the bi-factor model was acceptable (RMSEA = 0.040; CFI = 0.983; TLI = 0.965). Disordered thresholds were initially found on three out of five items in Somatic symptoms, and four out of six items in Social stigma. Uniform differential item functioning was observed for three items for age group, two items for gender, and one item each for different ALT levels and HBV-DNA levels. Finally, the 10-item CHBQOL-SF retained the four-dimensional structure of the original instrument. The 10 items fit the Rasch model well and response options were set reasonably. The 10-item CHBQOL-SF would offer a brief and easily administrative CHB-specific patient-reported outcome measure for use in clinical practice and population studies.

Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning model for predicting the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate an interpretable machine learning (ML) model for predicting the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected clinical data from patients with HCC and CHB treated at the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from January 2022 to December 2022, including demographics, comorbidities, and laboratory parameters. The datasets were randomly divided into a training set (361 cases) and a validation set (155 cases) in a 7:3 ratio. Variables were screened using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and multifactor logistic regression. The prediction model of HCC risk in CHB patients was constructed based on five machine learning models, including logistic regression (LR), K-nearest neighbour (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model in terms of identification, calibration and clinical application. The SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method was used to rank the importance of the features and explain the final model.

RESULTS

Among the five ML models constructed, the RF model has the best performance, and the RF model predicts the risk of HCC in patients with CHB in the training set [AUC: 0.996, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.991-0.999)] and internal validation set [AUC: 0.993, 95% CI (0.986-1.000)]. It has high AUC, specificity, sensitivity, F1 score and low Brier score. Calibration showed good agreement between observed and predicted risks. The model yielded higher positive net benefits in DCA than when all participants were considered to be at high or low risk, indicating good clinical utility. In addition, the SHAP plot of the RF showed that age, basophil/lymphocyte ratio (BLR), D-Dimer, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT), γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) can help identify patients with CHB who are at high or low risk of developing HCC.

CONCLUSION

ML models can be used as a tool to predict the risk of HCC in patients with CHB. The RF model has the best predictive performance and helps clinicians to identify high-risk patients and intervene early to reduce or delay the occurrence of HCC. However, the model needs to be further improved through large sample studies.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Hepatitis E Vaccination Strategies for Swine Workers

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is endemic in China, with swine as the most common reservoir. It poses a zoonotic public health risk to swine workers. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis E vaccination for this high-risk group in China. A decision tree-Markov model was utilized to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of two hepatitis E vaccination strategies, without or following screening, for swine workers aged 16-60 in China from societal perspectives, compared to no vaccination. We calculated HEV-related cases and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of GDP per capita. A sensitivity analysis was conducted. Additionally, we stimulated the scenarios of fully receiving 3-dose schedule, partially receiving 3-dose schedule, and fully receiving 2-dose schedule. Both hepatitis E vaccination strategies significantly reduced HEV-related cases and deaths compared to no vaccination. ICERs were estimated to be USD 11,428.16 and 9830.71/QALY averted for vaccination without and following screening, respectively, both lower than GDP per capita (USD 12,325.24, 2023). Furthermore, one-way sensitivity analysis identified the discount rate, utility in asymptomatic cases, and probability of symptomatic infection as crucial factors affecting ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) showed a 47.5% cost-effectiveness probability for hepatitis E vaccination following screening, compared to 52.5% for no vaccination. Notably, vaccination following screening was cost-ineffective after age 40 and at a price of USD 138.0/dose. Additionally, fully receiving 2-dose and partially 3-dose schedules were cost-effective, regardless of hepatitis E vaccination without or following screening strategies, while fully receiving 3-dose schedule was cost-ineffective with the vaccination without screening strategy. Hepatitis E vaccination following screening would be optimal for swine workers in China. Vaccination starting at an earlier age and lower vaccine prices can improve the cost-effectiveness. Additionally, 2-dose schedule may be recommended during a hepatitis E outbreak to achieve cost-effectiveness.

Global progress, challenges and strategies in eliminating public threat of viral hepatitis

BACKGROUND

The problem caused by viral hepatitis is a major public health challenge faced in the past decade, and the global goal of eliminating viral hepatitis by 2030 is still far away. With the use of hepatitis B vaccine and the launch of new drugs, there are more means to control viral hepatitis and more technologies to prevent, diagnose and treat it. While improving the coverage of vaccine use, drugs for treating hepatitis B are not only becoming more effective, but also decreasing in price. The objective of this article was to explore the urgent issues that need to be addressed in global viral hepatitis with the increasing availability of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

MAIN TEXT

The updated World Health Organization guidelines for the prevention, diagnosis, care and treatment for people with chronic hepatitis B infection (2024 edition) and Chinese guidelines for the prevention and treatment of chronic hepatitis B (version 2022) simplify clinical algorithms for the diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring of hepatitis B, expand treatment eligibility criteria, and provide alternative treatment options, which will cover a higher proportion of all hepatitis B surface antigen positive populations. These actions promote the global goal of eliminating the public health hazards of viral hepatitis by 2030. Among the countries that have made remarkable progress in eliminating viral hepatitis policies, the key strategy is to simplify the diagnosis and treatment plan. Furthermore, the World Health Organization has identified 38 priority countries for viral hepatitis. Expand access to viral hepatitis services in these countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Regions and countries with the high burden of viral hepatitis still need to take urgent action regarding the new measures proposed by the WHO to achieve the 2030 targets. First, countries must establish a complete public health system aligned with the World Health Organization's strategy. Second, provide effective, people-oriented services and public prevention strategies. Third, prioritize the implementation of health strategies in the 38 identified priority countries. Finally, use complete and measurable data to monitor progress.

2024 latest report on hepatitis B virus epidemiology in China: current status, changing trajectory, and challenges

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a significant global public health concern, particularly in China, which accounts for one-third of the world's chronic HBV cases. Over the past three decades, China has made substantial progress in controlling HBV infection. Currently, the vaccination rate of the three-dose hepatitis B vaccine in China has risen to 99.6%, and the coverage of timely birth dose has reached 95.6%, significantly exceeding the global average level. The recent edition of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) prevention and treatment guideline has further expanded the treatment population to allow 94% of CHB patients meet the treatment criteria. With the complete immunization for newborns, in combination with antiviral treatment for HBV infected pregnant women, the mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rate in China has decreased to 0.23%. The prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) has significantly declined to 5.86% in the general Chinese population. Specifically, among children under five years old, HBsAg prevalence showed the most significant reduction, from 9.67% in 1992 to 0.30% in 2020. However, challenges remain in achieving the World Health Organization (WHO)'s 2030 targets. In 2020, only 58.78% of HBV-positive individuals in China were aware of their status and 17.33% received antiviral therapy. The burden of HBV-related complications such as liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma persists despite declining HBV infection rates. In this review, we analyzed the current status and evolving trajectory of HBV prevention and control in China, utilizing the latest data from national surveys, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the WHO's 2024 report. We summarized the progress made, highlighted disparities, and outlined the persistent challenges and opportunities for HBV elimination. We recommend that future efforts focus on maintaining strict control of mother-to-child and bloodborne transmission, expanding screening strategies, improving early accessibility and diagnostic rates, addressing regional healthcare disparities, enhancing treatment accessibility and coverage, and ensuring timely antiviral therapy to ultimately achieve elimination goals.

Cost-effectiveness of integrated maternal HIV, syphilis, and hepatitis B screening opt-out strategies in Nepal: a modelling study

Background

The World Health Organisation (WHO) developed a comprehensive framework encouraging an integrated approach to achieve triple elimination of vertical transmission of HIV, syphilis, and hepatitis B in Asia. Current screening practices in Nepal show significantly lower coverage for syphilis and hepatitis B compared to HIV suggesting potential for integration. In this study, we aimed to model the cost-effectiveness of triple screening during antenatal care in Nepal.

Methods

We modelled maternal HIV, hepatitis B, and syphilis cascade of care and their corresponding disease states using disease-specific Markov models over a 20-year horizon with a cycle length of one year. We compared dual integrated screening for HIV and syphilis and triple integrated screening for HIV, syphilis, and hepatitis B with HIV screening only. Costs were estimated from a provider's perspective. Results were presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Univariable and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Findings

Our modelling analysis showed that dual-integrated screening for HIV and syphilis was highly cost-effective when compared to current strategy of screening for HIV only (ICERs of US$18). Triple-integrated antenatal screening for HIV, syphilis, and hepatitis B was highly cost-effective compared with dual-integrated strategy with an ICER of US$114. Moreover, 100% and 98% of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis estimates for dual- and triple-integrated screening were proven cost-effective, compared to HIV-only screening.

Interpretation

Our results support WHO recommendations for implementing integrated triple antenatal screening in Nepal and Asia more broadly, aiming to reduce maternal and neonatal morbidity through early detection and intervention.

Funding

No funding was reported.

Adverse event reporting following immunization of hepatitis B vaccine: A 13-year review

Hepatitis B vaccination is the most effective means of interrupting HBV transmission. Although the hepatitis B vaccine is very effective and safe, adverse events following immunization do occur and need to be reported so that problems can be identified and appropriate corrective action can be taken. Most of the research on AEFI focuses on the safety observation of newly used vaccines, and there are few long-term studies on AEFI of the hepatitis B vaccine. This study retrospectively analyzes the reporting rate, clinical symptoms, and onset time of AEFI of the hepatitis B vaccine in Quzhou from 2011 to 2023, and compares the differences in AEFI reporting rates between different types of hepatitis B vaccines, different vaccination ages, and different doses. The surveillance results show that from 2011 to 2023, the AEFI reporting rate of hepatitis B Vaccines in Quzhou was 17.55/100,000 doses. 98.73% of reported AEFI were non-serious. The types of AEFI reported were vaccine product-related reactions, immunization anxiety-related reactions, and coincidental events. 94.12% of vaccine product-related reactions occurred within 3 days, and the main symptoms were fever, local reactions at the injection site, and rash. The AEFI reporting rate of the CHO vaccine was higher than that of the yeast vaccines, and the probability of AEFI in children under 1 year of age receiving the hepatitis B vaccine was higher in the latter dose than in the previous dose. The 13-year-long AEFI surveillance provides reliable evidence of the safety of the hepatitis B vaccine.

Etiology and Prognostic Criteria for Liver Failure in Southeast China: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study Between 2018 and 2020

Background: The prognosis of patients with liver failure (LF) depends significantly on the etiology and clinical indicators. This analysis of these basic indicators can help provide a basis for the study of predictive outcome indicators. Methods: We collected the data from multiple centers in Southeast China, including subclasses of acute liver failure (ALF), subacute liver failure (SLF), acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), subacute-on-chronic liver failure (SALF), and chronic liver failure (CLF). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen for clinical indicators of nonsurvivors. We analyzed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and cutoff values to assess the prognostic criteria. Results: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is the leading etiology of patients with LF (64.52% (411/637)). SALF (41.36%) and CLF (32.30%) are the main subclasses of the hepatitis B virus-related liver failure (HBV-LF) group and the non-HBV-related LF group in Southeast China, respectively. Between 2018 and 2020, the incidence of HBV-LF decreased significantly, ranging from 72.36% to 59.74%, and the spontaneous survival rates of patients with HBV-LF were substantially lower than those of non-HBV-LF patients (36.43%~44.93% vs. 58.97%~63.64%). Infection and cirrhosis were the leading causes of death in both groups. The age and total bilirubin value of the nonsurvivors with HBV-LF were significantly higher, and the number of days of hospitalization was significantly shorter than that of the survivors. The ages of the nonsurvivors in the non-HBV-LF group were significantly higher than those of the survivors. The prothrombin time-international normalized ratio (PT-INR) is 2.05, 1.92, or 2.11, and antithrombin III (AT III) is 24.50%, which are proposed as prognostic criteria for the HBV-SALF (hepatitis B virus-related subacute-on-chronic liver failure), non-HBV-SLF (non-hepatitis B virus-related subacute liver failure), non-HBV-ACLF (non-hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure), and HBV-ALF (hepatitis B virus-related acute liver failure) subclasses, respectively. Conclusions: The incidence of HBV-LF is decreasing annually. AT III, as an independent prognostic criterion, has excellent discriminative ability for the outcomes of the HBV-ALF subclass.

Development and validation of HBV surveillance models using big data and machine learning

BACKGROUND

The construction of a robust healthcare information system is fundamental to enhancing countries' capabilities in the surveillance and control of hepatitis B virus (HBV). Making use of China's rapidly expanding primary healthcare system, this innovative approach using big data and machine learning (ML) could help towards the World Health Organization's (WHO) HBV infection elimination goals of reaching 90% diagnosis and treatment rates by 2030. We aimed to develop and validate HBV detection models using routine clinical data to improve the detection of HBV and support the development of effective interventions to mitigate the impact of this disease in China.

METHODS

Relevant data records extracted from the Family Medicine Clinic of the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital's Hospital Information System were structuralized using state-of-the-art Natural Language Processing techniques. Several ML models have been used to develop HBV risk assessment models. The performance of the ML model was then interpreted using the Shapley value (SHAP) and validated using cohort data randomly divided at a ratio of 2:1 using a five-fold cross-validation framework.

RESULTS

The patterns of physical complaints of patients with and without HBV infection were identified by processing 158,988 clinic attendance records. After removing cases without any clinical parameters from the derivation sample (n = 105,992), 27,392 cases were analysed using six modelling methods. A simplified model for HBV using patients' physical complaints and parameters was developed with good discrimination (AUC = 0.78) and calibration (goodness of fit test p-value >0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Suspected case detection models of HBV, showing potential for clinical deployment, have been developed to improve HBV surveillance in primary care setting in China. (Word count: 264).

Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen

Background

This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022, and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027.

Methods

Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends, while the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates. We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) Model, Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) Model, Prophet, Exponential Smoothing (ETS) Model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Hybrid Model, selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years.

Results

Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend, with rates higher in men than in women. Higher incidence rates were observed in adults, particularly in the 30-39 age group. Moreover, the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend. Furthermore, in the best-performing NNAR(10, 1, 6)[12] model, the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023, increasing to 5314 by 2027.

Conclusions

Hepatitis B remains a significant issue in Xiamen, necessitating further optimization of hepatitis B prevention and control measures. Moreover, targeted interventions are essential for adults with higher incidence rates.

Automated data collection tool for real-world cohort studies of chronic hepatitis B: Leveraging OCR and NLP technologies for improved efficiency

BACKGROUND

Collecting and standardizing clinical research data is a very tedious task. This study is to develop an intelligent data collection tool, named CHB-EDC, for real-world cohort studies of chronic hepatitis B (CHB), which can assist in standardized and efficient data collection.

METHODS

CHB_EDC is capable of automatically processing various formats of data, including raw data in image format, using internationally recognized data standards, OCR, and NLP models. It can automatically populate the data into eCRFs designed in the REDCap system, supporting the integration of patient data from electronic medical record systems through commonly used web application interfaces. This tool enables intelligent extraction and aggregation of data, as well as secure and anonymous data sharing.

RESULTS

For non-electronic data collection, the average accuracy of manual collection was 98.65 %, with an average time of 63.64 min to collect information for one patient. The average accuracy CHB-EDC was 98.66 %, with an average time of 3.57 min to collect information for one patient. In the same data collection task, CHB-EDC achieved a comparable average accuracy to manual collection. However, in terms of time, CHB-EDC significantly outperformed manual collection (p < 0.05). Our research has significantly reduced the required collection time and lowered the cost of data collection while ensuring accuracy.

CONCLUSION

The tool has significantly improved the efficiency of data collection while ensuring accuracy, enabling standardized collection of real-world data.

Effects and Costs of Hepatitis C Virus Elimination for the Whole Population in China: A Modelling Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

China has the highest number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in the world. However, it is unclear what levels of screening and treatment are needed to achieve the WHO 2030 hepatitis C elimination targets. We aimed to evaluate the impact of scaling up interventions on the hepatitis C epidemic and determine how and at what cost these elimination targets could be achieved for the whole population in China.

METHODS

We developed a compartmental model incorporating HCV transmission, disease progression, and care cascade for the whole population in China, calibrated with data on demographics, injecting drug use, HCV prevalence, and treatments. Five different scenarios were evaluated for effects and costs for 2022-2030. All costs were converted to 2021 US dollar (USD) and discounted at an annual rate of 5%. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the model.

RESULTS

Under the status quo scenario, the incidence of hepatitis C is projected to increase from 60.39 (57.60-63.45) per 100,000 person-years in 2022 to 68.72 (65.3-73.97) per 100,000 person-years in 2030, and 2.52 million (1.94-3.07 million) infected patients are projected to die between 2022 and 2030, of which 0.76 (0.61-1.08) million will die due to hepatitis C. By increasing primary screening to 10%, conducting regular rescreening (annually for PWID and every 5 years for the general population) and treating 90% of patients diagnosed, the incidence would be reduced by 88.15% (86.61-89.45%) and hepatitis C-related mortality by 60.5% (52.62-65.54%) by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. This strategy would cost USD 52.78 (USD 43.93-58.53) billion.

CONCLUSIONS

Without changes in HCV prevention and control policy, the disease burden of HCV in China will increase dramatically. To achieve the hepatitis C elimination targets, China needs to sufficiently scale up screening and treatment.

Economic burden of hepatitis B patients and its influencing factors in China: a systematic review

BACKGROUND & AIM

Hepatitis B is globally recognized as a major public health problem that imposes a huge economic burden on society. China is a major country with hepatitis B infection; however, an updated overview of the economic burden of hepatitis B and related diseases in China has not been provided. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the economic burden and factors influencing hepatitis B and related diseases by synthesizing the available evidence, with the aim of informing clinical treatment and health decisions.

METHODS

Two researchers systematically searched relevant literature published in PubMed, Web of Science, China Knowledge Network, Wanfang Database, and Vip Database from 2002 to 2022, and conducted title and abstract reviews according to the PRISMA guidelines for the development of nerfing criteria, as well as quality evaluation of the included literature.

RESULTS

Thirty-three studies were included in the literature. The quality of the included literature was average, with the majority being individual studies and a few group studies, which showed that the annual economic burden per capita of hepatitis B-related diseases was 92,978.34 RMB, with a high proportion of direct and hidden costs, and a large disparity in economic burden between related diseases, with the greatest burden for primary hepatocellular carcinoma and the smallest burden for acute hepatitis B. The study found that the main factors affecting the cost of disease were sex, age, occupational classification, place of residence, health insurance conditions, hospital class, length of hospitalization, use of antiviral drugs, comorbidities, and complications.

CONCLUSION

Hepatitis B has caused a huge economic burden on Chinese society, and hidden costs also respond to a great psychological burden on patients and their families. Based on existing studies, there is an urgent need for high-quality, multicenter, population-level studies to inform clinical treatment and health policy decisions.

Clinical effects of combined treatment of traditional Chinese medicine and western medicine for viral hepatitis B cirrhosis and the effects on serum miR-122, miR-200a

The aim is to explore the clinical effects of combined treatment of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and western medicine in viral hepatitis B cirrhosis and the effects on microRNA (miR)-122 and miR-200a. 116 patients with chronic hepatitis B cirrhosis were admitted to our hospital. Real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR (qPCR) was employed to reveal the level of serum miR-122 and miR-200a in the three groups. The clinical effects of the two groups were compared, including alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate amino transferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBIL) and alpha fetoprotein (AFP) indexes, coagulation function indexes, liver elasticity value and the main therapeutic effects. After treatment, the ALT, AST, TBIL and AFP indexes significantly decreased in both groups, which were much lower in the western medicine (WM) + TCM Group. The levels of albumin (ALB) all increased, and the increase was more significant in the WM + TCM Group. The prothrombin time (PT) was down-regulated while the prothrombin activity (PTA) was up-regulated in both groups. Both groups showed a decrease in liver elasticity after treatment, which was more obvious in the WM + TCM Group. The incidence of primary peritonitis, hepatic encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome, gastrointestinal bleeding and electrolyte disturbance in the WM + TCM Group was significantly lower than those in the WM Group. The combination of Chinese and western medicine in the treatment of cirrhosis can reduce the occurrence of complications, improve the clinical symptoms and improve the clinical effects effectively, which is worthy of further study and clinical popularization. Viral hepatitis B, Liver cirrhosis, Combination of TCM and Western medicine, miR-122, miR-200a.

Chronic hepatitis B: Prevent, diagnose, and treat before the point of no return

Hepatitis B remains a significant global health challenge, contributing to substantial morbidity and mortality. Approximately 254 million people worldwide live with Chronic hepatitis B (CHB), with the majority of cases occurring in sub-Saharan Africa and the Western Pacific regions. Alarmingly, only about 13.4% of the individuals infected with this disease have been diagnosed, and awareness of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection status is as low as 1% in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2022, CHB led to 1.1 million deaths globally. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set a target of eliminating hepatitis B as a public health concern by 2030; however, this goal appears increasingly unattainable due to multiple challenges. These challenges include low vaccination coverage; a large number of undiagnosed cases; a low proportion of patients eligible for treatment under current guidelines; limited access to healthcare; and the costs associated with lifelong treatment. Treatment of HBV can yield significant clinical benefits within a long window of opportunity. However, the benefits of therapy are markedly diminished when the disease is detected at the advanced cirrhosis stage. This editorial aim to highlight the current challenges in hepatitis care and the necessary steps to achieve the WHO's hepatitis elimination goals for 2030.

Chronic hepatitis B: Prevent, diagnose, and treat before the point of no return

Hepatitis B remains a significant global health challenge, contributing to substantial morbidity and mortality. Approximately 254 million people worldwide live with Chronic hepatitis B (CHB), with the majority of cases occurring in sub-Saharan Africa and the Western Pacific regions. Alarmingly, only about 13.4% of the individuals infected with this disease have been diagnosed, and awareness of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection status is as low as 1% in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2022, CHB led to 1.1 million deaths globally. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set a target of eliminating hepatitis B as a public health concern by 2030; however, this goal appears increasingly unattainable due to multiple challenges. These challenges include low vaccination coverage; a large number of undiagnosed cases; a low proportion of patients eligible for treatment under current guidelines; limited access to healthcare; and the costs associated with lifelong treatment. Treatment of HBV can yield significant clinical benefits within a long window of opportunity. However, the benefits of therapy are markedly diminished when the disease is detected at the advanced cirrhosis stage. This editorial aim to highlight the current challenges in hepatitis care and the necessary steps to achieve the WHO's hepatitis elimination goals for 2030.

Changes in the expression profile of serum lncRNAs in pregnant women with high hepatitis B viral load during antiviral and non-antiviral treatment

OBJECTIVE

This research analyzes the potential of long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) as markers in determining the necessity of antiviral treatment in pregnant women by examining alterations in the expression profile of serum lncRNAs in pregnant women with elevated hepatitis B viral load (HBVL) under antiviral and non-antiviral treatment regimens between the second trimester and delivery.

METHODS

Serum was obtained from 6 s-trimester pregnant women with high HBVL and no intrauterine infection. Then, 3 of these women were randomly selected for antiviral treatment, with the remaining 3 women undergoing non-antiviral treatment as control. Serum samples were again collected from these 6 women before delivery. The expression profile of lncRNAs was analyzed with microarray technology, followed by Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses. The axes of hub lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA were identified based on the competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) network.

RESULTS

The expression profile of serum lncRNAs in pregnant women with high HBVL changed significantly from the second trimester of pregnancy until delivery under antiviral or non-antiviral treatment. The Venn diagram was utilized to screen out the jointly up-regulated and down-regulated lncRNAs in the serum of pregnant women under antiviral and non-antiviral treatment before delivery. Additionally, the KEGG pathway enrichment analysis results showed that lncRNAs might mediate the Hippo pathway in HBV infection. Based on the ceRNA network, 3 hub lncRNAs (CATG00000076041.1, LINC01310, and G014655) were found to potentially regulate the key gene TP73 in the Hippo pathway.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we retrieved co-differentially expressed lncRNAs in pregnant women with high HBVL under antiviral or non-antiviral treatment, which may be used as markers for evaluating whether pregnant women with high HBVL may be free of antiviral treatment. This study may provide a basis for preventing potential adverse effects of antiviral treatment on maternal and fetal health.

Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis E Vaccination Strategies among Patients with Chronic Liver Diseases in China: A Model-Based Evaluation

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a leading cause of acute viral hepatitis worldwide, primarily transmitted through contaminated water and food. In patients with chronic liver disease (CLD), HEV infection might worsen the prognosis. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis E vaccination strategies in CLD patients. A decision tree-Markov cohort model was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of universal-vaccination, vaccination-following-screening, and no-vaccination strategies in 100,000 CLD patients over their lifetimes, simulating cohorts aged ≥16 years, ≥40 years, and ≥60 years, based on the licensed vaccination ages and typical ages of CLD onset, from a societal perspective. Model parameters were retrieved and estimated from previous publications and government data. The outcomes included HEV-related cases, costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Compared to no-vaccination, universal-vaccination reduced HEV-related cases by 32.8% to 39.6%, while vaccination-following-screening reduced them by 38.1% to 49.3%. Furthermore, universal-vaccination showed ICERs of USD 6898.33, USD 6638.91, and USD 6582.69 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for cohorts aged ≥16, ≥40, and ≥60 years, respectively. Moreover, the vaccination-following-screening strategy significantly enhanced cost-effectiveness, with ICERs decreasing to USD 6201.55, USD 5199.46, and USD 4919.87 per QALY for the cohorts. Additionally, one-way sensitivity analysis identified the discount rate and utility for CLD patients as the key factors influencing ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated the vaccination-following-screening strategy was cost-effective with probabilities of 92.50%, 95.70%, and 95.90% for each cohort. Hepatitis E vaccination in CLD patients costs less than GDP per capita for each QALY gained in China. The vaccination-following-screening strategy may be the optimal option, especially in those over 60 years.

Clinical significance of liver biopsy in the diagnosis of liver disease and the evaluation of the clinical efficacy of antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B

OBJECTIVE

To explore the diagnostic value of liver biopsy in patients with acute/chronic liver diseases and to evaluate the application value of repeated liver biopsy in assessing the efficacy of antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

METHODS

This retrospective study involved 146 patients with acute and chronic liver diseases who underwent liver biopsy at the Affiliated Hospital of Putian University from January 2018 to December 2023. Differential diagnoses were made for patients with liver diseases based on their pathological results from liver biopsy. Additionally, the effectiveness of antiviral treatment and changes in liver fibrosis in patients with hepatitis B infection before and after antiviral therapy were assessed using repeated liver biopsy.

RESULTS

The overall concordance rate between clinical and histopathological diagnoses was 79.45% (116/146). Specifically, the highest concordance rate was for chronic hepatitis B at 82.61% (76/92), followed by fatty liver disease at 77.78% (7/9), autoimmune liver disease at 75% (12/16), and drug-induced liver injury at 72.72% (16/22), and lastly, hepatitis B-related cirrhosis at 71.43% (5/7). After antiviral therapy, the number of cases with positive HBeAg and HBV-DNA significantly decreased compared to before treatment, while the number of cases with negative HBeAg increased, showing a statistically significant difference (P<0.001). The number of patients at fibrosis stages S3-S4 decreased after antiviral therapy compared to before treatment (P=0.040 and P=0.028), while the number of patients at stage S2 increased (P=0.040).

CONCLUSION

Liver biopsy aids in the diagnosis of liver diseases and can effectively evaluate the degree of liver fibrosis before and after antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of bevacizumab for cerebral radiation necrosis treatment based on real-world utility value in China

BACKGROUND

Bevacizumab shows superior efficacy in cerebral radiation necrosis (CRN) therapy, but its economic burden remains heavy due to the high drug price. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab for CRN treatment from the Chinese payers' perspective.

METHODS

A decision tree model was developed to compare the costs and health outcomes of bevacizumab and corticosteroids for CRN therapy. Efficacy and safety data were derived from the NCT01621880 trial, which compared the effectiveness and safety of bevacizumab monotherapy with corticosteroids for CRN in nasopharyngeal cancer patients, and demonstrated that bevacizumab invoked a significantly higher response than corticosteroids (65.5% vs. 31.5%, P < 0.001) with no significant differences in adverse events between two groups. The utility value of the "non-recurrence" status was derived from real-world data. Costs and other utility values were collected from an authoritative Chinese network database and published literature. The primary outcomes were total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The uncertainty of the model was evaluated via one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Bevacizumab treatment added 0.12 (0.48 vs. 0.36) QALYs compared to corticosteroid therapy, along with incremental costs of $ 2010 ($ 4260 vs. $ 2160). The resultant ICER was $ 16,866/QALY, which was lower than the willingness-to-pay threshold of $ 38,223/QALY in China. The price of bevacizumab, body weight, and the utility value of recurrence status were the key influential parameters for ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the probability of bevacizumab being cost-effectiveness was 84.9%.

CONCLUSION

Compared with corticosteroids, bevacizumab is an economical option for CRN treatment in China.

Economic evaluation of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in chronic hepatitis B patients with virological remission

BACKGROUND

Subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with virological remission. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of HCC surveillance in those patients and determine appropriate age to commence or discontinue surveillance.

METHODS

We developed an individual-based state transition model, simulating the advancement of HCC in CHB patients with virological remission. We used this model to compare the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and long-term health outcomes of biannual or annual HCC surveillance for varying durations with no surveillance.

RESULTS

For compensated cirrhosis patients with CHB, biannual surveillance was not cost-effective for all age groups, while annual surveillance was cost-effective for patients aged 55 to 70 (ICER USD 28,076 / quality-adjusted life years [QALY] gained), which detected 176 additional early HCC cases in a 100,000-person cohort compared to no surveillance. In CHB patients with advanced fibrosis, annual surveillance for patients aged 40 to 75 was the most cost-effective strategy (ICER USD 4,984/QALY gained), which detected 289 additional early HCC per 100,000 patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual surveillance for patients with compensated cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis was a more cost-effective option that demonstrated substantial economic benefits, being slightly less effective than biannual surveillance at a significantly lower cost, providing insights for professionals in evaluating HCC surveillance among high-risk patients in China.

S100A8/A9-activated IFNγ+ NK cells trigger β-cell necroptosis in hepatitis B virus-associated liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated liver cirrhosis (LC), a common condition with high incidence and mortality rates, is often associated with diabetes mellitus (DM). However, the molecular mechanisms underlying impaired glucose regulation during HBV-associated LC remain unclear.

METHODS

Data from 63 patients with LC and 62 patients with LC-associated DM were analysed. Co-culture of NK cells and islet β cell lines were used to study the glucose regulation mechanism. A mouse model of LC was used to verify the effect of S100A8/A9 on the glucose regulation.

RESULTS

Higher levels of interferon (IFN)-γ derived from natural killer (NK) cells and lower levels of insulin emerged in the peripheral blood of patients with both LC and DM compared with those from patients with LC only. IFN-γ derived from NK cells facilitated β cell necroptosis and impaired insulin production. Furthermore, S100A8/A9 elevation in patients with both LC and DM was found to upregulate IFN-γ production in NK cells. Consistently, in the mouse model for LC, mice treated with carbon tetrachloride (CCL4) and S100A8/A9 exhibited increased blood glucose, impaired insulin production, increased IFN-γ, and increased β cells necroptosis compared with those treated with CCL4. Mechanistically, S100A8/A9 activated the p38 MAPK pathway to increase IFN-γ production in NK cells. These effects were diminished after blocking RAGE.

CONCLUSION

Together, the data indicate that IFN-γ produced by NK cells induces β cell necroptosis via the S100A8/A9-RAGE-p38 MAPK axis in patients with LC and DM. Reduced levels of S100A8/A9, NK cells, and IFN-γ could be valuable for the treatment of LC with DM. Accumulation of S100A8/A9 in patients with LC may indicate the emergence of DM.

Predictive value of blood coagulation and routine blood indices for rebleeding after endoscopic treatment in hepatitis B-related cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric fundal varices: a logistic regression model analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the predictive value of blood coagulation and routine blood indices for rebleeding after endoscopic treatment of ruptured esophagogastric fundal varices (EGVB) in cirrhotic patients with hepatitis B infection.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis included 248 patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis and EGVB who received initial endoscopic treatment from October 2019 to March 2022 and were followed up for 12 months. Patients were divided into rebleeding and non-rebleeding groups. Laboratory indices were analyzed, and univariate and multivariate analyses identified predictors of rebleeding. The efficacy of a logistic regression model was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA), and a risk factor nomogram was constructed for assessing the predictive efficiency of those risk factors.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed significant differences in portal vein diameters and lower Child-Pugh scores in the rebleeding group in contrast to those in the non-rebleeding group. Key laboratory markers such as platelet count (PLT), albumin (ALB), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), lymphocytes (LYM), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) were lower, while prothrombin time (PT) and lactate levels (LN) were higher in the rebleeding group than those in the non-rebleeding group. Multivariate analysis identified portal vein diameter, PLT, ALT, PT, LYM, and PNI as significant predictors of rebleeding. The logistic model demonstrated high accuracy (AUC=0.986) and clinical value, validated by ROC curves, calibration curves (C-index =0.986), and DCA results. A risk factor predictive nomogram was successfully constructed.

CONCLUSION

This study developed a logistic regression model with a nomogram for predicting EGVB-related rebleeding in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis, achieving an AUC of 0.986, indicating high accuracy and significant clinical relevance.

Differences between Chronically Hepatitis B Virus-Infected Pregnant Women with and without Intrafamilial Infection: From Viral Gene Sequences to Clinical Manifestations

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to investigate the differences between pregnant women with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and intrafamilial infection and those without intrafamilial infection.

METHODS

HBV-DNA was extracted from the sera of 16 pregnant women with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and their family members for gene sequencing and phylogenetic analyses. A total of 74 pregnant women with CHB were followed up from the second trimester to 3 months postpartum. Viral markers and other laboratory indicators were compared between pregnant women with CHB with and without intrafamilial infection.

RESULTS

The phylogenetic tree showed that HBV lines in the mother-spread pedigree shared a node, whereas there was an unrelated genetic background for HBV lines in individuals without intrafamilial infection. From delivery to 3 months postpartum, compared with those without intrafamilial infection, pregnant women with intrafamilial infection were related negatively to HBV-DNA (β = -0.43, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.76 to -0.12, p = 0.009), HBeAg (β = -195.15, 95% CI: -366.35 to -23.96, p = 0.027), and hemoglobin changes (β = -8.09, 95% CI: -15.54 to -0.64, p = 0.035) and positively to changes in the levels of alanine aminotransferase (β = 73.9, 95% CI: 38.92-108.95, p < 0.001) and albumin (β = 2.73, 95% CI: 0.23-5.23, p = 0.033).

CONCLUSION

The mother-spread pedigree spread model differs from that of non-intrafamilial infections. Pregnant women with intrafamilial HBV infection have less hepatitis flares and liver damage, but their HBV-DNA and HBeAg levels rebound faster after delivery, than those without intrafamilial infection by the virus.

Comparison of Clinical Manifestations and Related Factors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Chronic Hepatitis B

Background

The aim of this study was to describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), analyse the risk factors associated with HBV-associated HCC, and to provide some references to the diagnosis and treatment of HCC.

Methods

This study retrospectively enrolled 730 patients, including 390 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) as controls, and 340 patients with CHB complicated with HCC as patients. Relevant information and medical records of these participants were collected, including age, sex, cigarette smoking, alcoholism, diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension, coronary heart disease (CHD), cirrhosis, occupation, ascites, HBV-DNA load, the qualitative analysis of HBsAg, HBsAb, HBeAg, HBeAb, and HBcAb serological markers, and levels of alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), TNM stage, tumor size and tumor number. The T test, Chi-square test, non-parametric rank-sum test, logistic regression analyses were used to explore the influencing factors and their degree of association with HCC in patients with HBV.

Results

The proportion of smoking, alcoholism, married status, DM, hypertension, and the rate of HBV-DNA with a viral load of ≥500 copies/mL were significantly higher in the HCC group than in the controls (all p<0.05). Cirrhosis was more common among patients with CHB+HCC than in controls (p=0.013). The proportion of patients with HBsAg, HBeAb, and HBcAb positive was greater in CHB+HCC group than that in CHB group. Logistic regression analysis indicated that age ≥60 years (OR: 1.835, 95% CI: 1.020-3.302, p=0.043), HBeAb positive (OR: 9.105, 95% CI: 4.796-17.288, p<0.001), antiviral treatment with entecavir (OR: 2.209, 95% CI: 1.106-4.409, p=0.025), and GGT (OR: 1.004, 95% CI: 1.001-1.007, p=0.002) were risk factors for HCC in patients with CHB.

Conclusion

Advanced age, HBeAb positive, antiviral treatment with entecavir, and GGT were independent risk factors for HCC in HBV patients.

Cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China: a simulation modeling study

Background

China has the highest disease burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the world; however, the diagnosis rate remains low. Screening for COPD in the population may improve early diagnosis and long-term health outcomes for patients with COPD. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of population-based COPD screening policies in China.

Methods

We developed a microsimulation model that simulated incidence, natural history, and clinical management of COPD over a lifetime horizon among the general population aged 35-80 years in China. We evaluated population-based screening policies with different screening methods (one-step with COPD Screening Questionnaire or two-step with additional portable spirometer test) and frequencies (one-time or every 1-10 years). We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the screening policies compared with the status quo (without screening) and identified the most cost-effective screening policy. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of key parameters and the robustness of model results.

Findings

Compared with the status quo, all population-based COPD screening policies were cost-effective with estimated ICERs ranging between $8034 and $13,209 per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), all under the willingness-to-pay value of $38,441/QALY (three times China's gross domestic product per capita). A total of 0.39%-8.10% of COPD-related deaths and 0.58%-2.70% of COPD exacerbations were projected to be averted by COPD screening. Among all screening policies, annual two-step screening was the most cost-effective. Improving the linkage from screening to diagnosis and treatment could further increase population health benefits and the cost-effectiveness of COPD screening.

Interpretation

Population-based screening for COPD could be cost-effective in China. Offering public programs for COPD screening similar to existing preventive health services for other chronic diseases could be a promising strategy to improve population health outcomes and mitigate the disease burden of COPD in China.

Funding

Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, National Natural Science Foundation of China, CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Science, Chinese Academy of Engineering project, and Horizon Europe.

Noninvasive tests maintain high accuracy for advanced fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B patients with different nomenclatures of steatotic liver disease

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is a new nomenclature proposed in 2023. We aimed to compare the diagnostic efficacy of noninvasive tests (NITs) for advanced fibrosis under different nomenclatures in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). A total of 844 patients diagnosed with CHB and concurrent steatotic liver disease (SLD) by liver biopsy were retrospectively enrolled and divided into four groups. The performances of fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet ratio index (GPRI), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were compared among the four groups. The four NITs showed similar diagnostic efficacy for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), MASLD, and metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in patients with CHB with advanced fibrosis. LSM showed the most stable accuracy for NAFLD (AUC = 0.842), MASLD (AUC = 0.846), and MAFLD (AUC = 0.863) compared with other NITs (p < 0.05). Among the four NITs, APRI (AUC = 0.841) and GPRI (AUC = 0.844) performed best in patients with CHB & MetALD (p < 0.05). The cutoff value for GPRI in patients with CHB & MetALD was higher than that in the other three groups, while further comparisons of NITs at different fibrosis stages showed that the median GPRI of CHB & MetALD (1.113) at F3-4 was higher than that in the CHB & MASLD group (0.508) (p < 0.05). Current NITs perform adequately in patients with CHB and SLD; however, alterations in cutoff values for CHB & MetALD need to be noted.

Comprehensive approach to controlling chronic hepatitis B in China

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection was highly endemic in China, where the prevalence of HBsAg was 9.7% in 1992. Comprehensive strategies, including universal infant hepatitis B vaccination with emphasis on timely birth-dose and 3-dose coverage, dramatically reduced the mother-to-infant transmission and early childhood acquisition of HBV, resulting in estimated HBsAg prevalence rates of 5.6% and 0.1% in the general population and among children aged <5 years in 2022, respectively. Clinical guidelines on the prevention and treatment of chronic hepatitis B have been periodically updated based on emerging evidence from clinical research. The continuously improved reimbursement policy and the massively reduced price of antiviral drugs through government negotiation and central procurement have increased treatment accessibility and affordability. However, due to the low rates of diagnosis and treatment, China still faces a large challenge in achieving the 2030 goal of lowering HBV-related mortality by 65%. A public health approach involving concerted efforts from the government, medical community, industry, and society as a whole would be necessary to increase the uptake of HBV tests and treatment to achieve the global goal of eliminating viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030.

Universal screening and treatment towards the elimination of chronic hepatitis C in China: an economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES

China has the largest number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the world, but current levels of diagnosis and treatment are low. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of various universal HCV screening and treatment strategies in China and inform decisions on health policy.

STUDY DESIGN

A cost-effectiveness analytical study.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model to investigate cost-effectiveness of different HCV screening and treatment strategies in China. We simulated several screening scenarios for Chinese people aged 18-70 years. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of different intervention scenarios compared with status quo.

RESULTS

Expanded HCV screening and treatment strategy with prioritisation for high-risk groups (Scenario S5) was the most cost-effective strategy (ICER: USD $11,667.71/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained), which resulted in great reduction in HCV-related diseases and deaths, with a 67.11% reduction in cases of chronic HCV. Universal HCV screening and treatment implementation remains a cost-effective strategy when delayed until 2025 (ICER: USD $17,093.69/QALY), yet the delayed strategy is less effective in reducing HCV-related deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Expanded HCV screening and treatment strategy with prioritisation for high-risk groups is the most cost-effective strategy and has lead to a significant reduction in both HCV morbidity and mortality in China, which would essentially eliminate HCV as a public threat.

Economic evaluation for medical artificial intelligence: accuracy vs. cost-effectiveness in a diabetic retinopathy screening case

Artificial intelligence (AI) models have shown great accuracy in health screening. However, for real-world implementation, high accuracy may not guarantee cost-effectiveness. Improving AI's sensitivity finds more high-risk patients but may raise medical costs while increasing specificity reduces unnecessary referrals but may weaken detection capability. To evaluate the trade-off between AI model performance and the long-running cost-effectiveness, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis in a nationwide diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening program in China, comprising 251,535 participants with diabetes over 30 years. We tested a validated AI model in 1100 different diagnostic performances (presented as sensitivity/specificity pairs) and modeled annual screening scenarios. The status quo was defined as the scenario with the most accurate AI performance. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for other scenarios against the status quo as cost-effectiveness metrics. Compared to the status quo (sensitivity/specificity: 93.3%/87.7%), six scenarios were cost-saving and seven were cost-effective. To achieve cost-saving or cost-effective, the AI model should reach a minimum sensitivity of 88.2% and specificity of 80.4%. The most cost-effective AI model exhibited higher sensitivity (96.3%) and lower specificity (80.4%) than the status quo. In settings with higher DR prevalence and willingness-to-pay levels, the AI needed higher sensitivity for optimal cost-effectiveness. Urban regions and younger patient groups also required higher sensitivity in AI-based screening. In real-world DR screening, the most accurate AI model may not be the most cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness should be independently evaluated, which is most likely to be affected by the AI's sensitivity.

Optimising HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis and testing strategies in men who have sex with men in Australia, Thailand, and China: a modelling study and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Asia-Pacific region have a disproportionately high burden of HIV infection compared with the general population. Although pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV is highly effective at preventing new HIV infections, the cost-effectiveness of PrEP for MSM in different countries in the Asia-Pacific region with varying PrEP coverage and HIV testing frequencies remains unstudied. We aimed to analyse the economic and health benefits of long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) compared with oral PrEP in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries within the Asia-Pacific region.

METHODS

We developed a decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate the population impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP scale-up among MSM in Australia, Thailand, and China. We assumed a static cohort of 100 000 MSM aged 18 years or older who were at risk of HIV infection, with a monthly cycle length over a 40-year time period. We evaluated hypothetical scenarios with universal PrEP coverage of 80% among 100 000 suitable MSM in each country. We modelled oral PrEP and CAB-LA for MSM with diverse HIV testing frequency strategies. We adopted the health-care system's perspective with a 3% annual discount rate. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), measured as additional cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, to compare different strategies with the status quo in each country. All costs were reported in 2021 US$. We also performed one-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our findings.

FINDINGS

Compared with the status quo in each country, expanding oral PrEP to 80% of suitable MSM would avert 8·1% of new HIV infections in Australia, 14·5% in Thailand, and 26·4% in China in a 40-year period. Expanding oral PrEP use with 6-monthly HIV testing for both PrEP and non-PrEP users was cost-saving for Australia. Similarly, expanding oral PrEP use remained the most cost-effective strategy in both Thailand and China, but optimal testing frequency varied, with annual testing in Thailand (ICER $4707 per QALY gained) and 3-monthly testing in China (ICER $16 926 per QALY gained) for both PrEP and non-PrEP users. We also found that replacing oral PrEP with CAB-LA for MSM could avert more new HIV infections (12·8% in Australia, 27·6% in Thailand, and 32·8% in China), but implementing CAB-LA was not cost-effective due to its high cost. The cost of CAB-LA would need to be reduced by 50-90% and be used as a complementary strategy to oral PrEP to be cost-effective in these countries.

INTERPRETATION

Expanding oral PrEP use for MSM, with country-specific testing frequency, is cost-effective in Australia, Thailand, and China. Due to the high cost, CAB-LA is currently not affordable as a single-use strategy but might be offered as an additional option to oral PrEP.

FUNDING

Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, National Key Research and Development Program of China, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Dual elastography to discriminate adjacent stages of fibrosis and inflammation in chronic hepatitis B: A prospective multicenter study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of dual elastography (dual-elasto) in continuous differentiation of liver fibrosis and inflammation in a large prospective cohort of patients with chronic HBV.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Adults with positive HBsAg for at least 6 months were recruited from 12 medical centers. Participants underwent dual-elasto evaluations. Biopsy was performed 3 days after dual-elasto examination. Four logistic regression models were trained and strung together into series models. Decision trees based on the series models were performed to achieve continuous differentiation of liver fibrosis and inflammation. The influence of inflammation on the fibrosis stage was also evaluated. A total of 560 patients were included in the training set and 240 in the validation set. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the series model were 0.82, 0.86, 0.93, and 0.96 to predict ≥F1, ≥F2, ≥F3, and F4 in the validation set, which were significantly higher than those of serum markers and shear wave elastography (all p < 0.05), except for the ≥ F1 levels ( p = 0.09). The AUCs of the series model were 0.93, 0.86, 0.95, and 0.84 to predict inflammation stages ≥G1, ≥G2, ≥G3, and G4, respectively. Decision trees realized 5 continuous classifications of fibrosis and inflammation. Inflammation could enhance the mild fibrosis stage classification while showing limited influences on severe fibrosis or cirrhosis diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual-elasto demonstrated high performance in the continuous discrimination of fibrosis and inflammation in patients with HBV and could be used to diagnose mild fibrosis without the influence of inflammation.

Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on hepatitis B and forecasting the epidemiological trend in mainland China: a causal analysis

BACKGROUND

It is uncertain how COVID-19 outbreak influences the hepatitis B epidemics. This study aims to evaluate the effects on hepatitis B owing to the COVID-19 outbreak and forecast the hepatitis B epidemiological trend in mainland China to speed up the course of the "End viral hepatitis Strategy".

METHODS

We estimated the causal impacts and created a forecast through adopting monthly notifications of hepatitis B each year from 2005 to 2020 in mainland China using the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method.

RESULTS

The hepatitis B epidemics fluctuates irregularly during the period 2005-2007(APC = 8.7, P = 0.246) and 2015-2020(APC = 1.7, P = 0.290), and there is a downturn (APC=-3.2, 95% CI -5.2 to -1.2, P = 0.006) from 2007 to 2015 in mainland China. The COVID-19 outbreak was found to have a monthly average reduction on the hepatitis B epidemics of 26% (95% CI 18-35%) within the first three months in 2020,17% (95% CI 7.7-26%) within the first six months in 2020, and 10% (95% CI19-22%) all year as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, (probability of causal effect = 96.591%, P = 0.034) and the forecasts showed an upward trend from 2021 to 2025 (annual percentage change = 4.18, 95% CI 4.0 to 4.3, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 has a positive effect on the decline of hepatitis B cases. And the potential of BSTS model to forecast the epidemiological trend of the hepatitis B can be applied in automatic public health policymaking in mainland China.

Chromatin binding protein HMGN1 promotes HBV cccDNA transcription and replication by regulating the phosphorylation of histone 3

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Direct elimination of cccDNA remains a formidable obstacle due to the persistent and stable presence of cccDNA in hepatocyte nuclei. The silencing of cccDNA transcription enduringly is one of alternative strategies in the treatment of hepatitis B. Protein binding to cccDNA plays an important role in its transcriptional regulation; thus, the identification of key factors involved in this process is of great importance.

APPROACHES AND RESULTS

In the present study, high mobility group nucleosome binding domain 1 (HMGN1) was screened out based on our biotin-avidin enrichment system. First, chromatin immunoprecipitation and fluorescent in situ hybridization assays confirmed the binding of HMGN1 with cccDNA in the nucleus. Second, functional experiments in HBV-infected cells showed that the promoting effect of HMGN1 on HBV transcription and replication depended on the functional region of the nucleosomal binding domain, while transfection of the HMGN1 mutant showed no influence on HBV compared with the vector. Third, further mechanistic exploration revealed that the silencing of HMGN1 increased the level of phosphorylase CLK2 and promoted H3 phosphorylation causing the reduced accessibility of cccDNA. Moreover, silenced HMGN1 was mimicked in HBV (r) cccDNA mouse model of HBV infection in vivo. The results showed that silencing HMGN1 inhibited HBV replication in vivo.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, our study identified that a host protein can bind to cccDNA and promote its transcription, providing a candidate strategy for anti-HBV targeting to interfere with the transcriptional activity of cccDNA microchromosomes.

Integrating viral hepatitis management into the emergency department: A further step towards viral hepatitis elimination

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Many people with HCV and HBV infection are unaware of their condition, particularly at-risk and vulnerable populations who face barriers for screening and linkage to care. Emergency departments are often their only point of contact with the health system.

METHODS

This is a prospective study investigating HBsAg and HCV antibody testing, with reflex testing for HDV antibodies and HCV RNA, in adults attending an emergency department and requiring a blood test. Positive cases were linked to care. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed.

RESULTS

From February 2020 to February 2022, a total of 17,560 individuals were screened. HBsAg was detected in 91 (0.5%), HCV RNA in 128 (0.7%), and HDV antibodies in two (0.01%) individuals. Nearly 40% of positive cases were unaware of their condition. Linkage to care was achieved in 42 of 56 HBsAg-positive and 45 of 69 HCV RNA-positive participants who were candidates for referral. HCV and HBV screening vs. no screening yielded 1.06 and 0.42 additional quality-adjusted life-years, respectively, with incremental cost-utility ratios of €7,629 and -€147 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively, and proved even more cost-effective in patients with hepatitis C aged 40-70 years.

CONCLUSIONS

On emergency department screening for hepatitis B, C, and D in Barcelona, the prevalence of HBsAg was 0.5% and HCV RNA 0.7%, approximately threefold higher than that observed in the general population. This strategy diagnosed patients with active HCV infection and no risk factors, who would not have been screened according to the current recommendations. Screening and linkage to care of viral hepatitis is cost-effective in this setting.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

We evaluated the performance and cost-effectiveness of a viral hepatitis screening programme implemented in an emergency department, which aimed to identify and link to care people living with hepatitis B and C. Our findings reveal a threefold higher prevalence of hepatitis B and C than in the general Spanish population, possibly attributable to the role of the emergency department as the main healthcare gateway for vulnerable populations, who have a higher prevalence of viral hepatitis. Risk factors for viral hepatitis could not be identified in most people living with hepatitis B and C attending the emergency department; hence, screening beyond risk factors should be considered in hepatitis detection strategies. Emergency department screening is cost-effective for hepatitis C and is a cost-saving strategy for hepatitis B in our setting. These data should inform future updates to clinical guidelines.

Population impact and cost-effectiveness of artificial intelligence-based diabetic retinopathy screening in people living with diabetes in Australia: a cost effectiveness analysis

Background

We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of an artificial intelligence-(AI) based diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening system in the primary care setting for both non-Indigenous and Indigenous people living with diabetes in Australia.

Methods

We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis between January 01, 2022 and August 01, 2023. A decision-analytic Markov model was constructed to simulate DR progression in a population of 1,197,818 non-Indigenous and 65,160 Indigenous Australians living with diabetes aged ≥20 years over 40 years. From a healthcare provider's perspective, we compared current practice to three primary care AI-based screening scenarios-(A) substitution of current manual grading, (B) scaling up to patient acceptance level, and (C) achieving universal screening. Study results were presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and net monetary benefits (NMB). A Willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of AU$50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and a discount rate of 3.5% were adopted in this study.

Findings

With the status quo, the non-Indigenous diabetic population was projected to develop 96,269 blindness cases, resulting in AU$13,039.6 m spending on DR screening and treatment during 2020-2060. In comparison, all three intervention scenarios were effective and cost-saving. In particular, if a universal screening program was to be implemented (Scenario C), it would prevent 38,347 blindness cases, gain 172,090 QALYs and save AU$595.8 m, leading to a BCR of 3.96 and NMB of AU$9,200 m. Similar findings were also reported in the Indigenous population. With the status quo, 3,396 Indigenous individuals would develop blindness, which would cost the health system AU$796.0 m during 2020-2060. All three intervention scenarios were cost-saving for the Indigenous population. Notably, universal AI-based DR screening (Scenario C) would prevent 1,211 blindness cases and gain 9,800 QALYs in the Indigenous population, leading to a saving of AU$19.2 m with a BCR of 1.62 and NMB of AU$509 m.

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that implementing AI-based DR screening in primary care is highly effective and cost-saving in both Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations.

Funding

This project received grant funding from the Australian Government: the National Critical Research Infrastructure Initiative, Medical Research Future Fund (MRFAI00035) and the NHMRC Investigator Grant (APP1175405). The contents of the published material are solely the responsibility of the Administering Institution, a participating institution or individual authors and do not reflect the views of the NHMRC. This work was supported by the Global STEM Professorship Scheme (P0046113), the Fundamental Research Funds of the State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Project of Investigation on Health Status of Employees in Financial Industry in Guangzhou, China (Z012014075). The Centre for Eye Research Australia receives Operational Infrastructure Support from the Victorian State Government. W.H. is supported by the Melbourne Research Scholarship established by the University of Melbourne. The funding source had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Proportion of liver cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in China

BACKGROUND

Understanding the differences in the burden of liver cancer due to different risk factors across provinces is critical to informing and improving liver cancer prevention and control. In this study, we estimated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of liver cancer in all 31 provinces of China in 2016.

METHODS

Prevalence estimates of risk factors were derived from representative surveys. We used pooled relative risks obtained from several recent large-scale pooled analyses or high-quality meta-analyses. We calculated PAFs using multiple formulas which included exposure prevalence and relative risk data stratified by sex, age and province, and then combined and created overall PAFs by sex, risk factors and risk factor groups.

RESULTS

Approximately 252 046 liver cancer cases {69.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 52.6, 76.5]} and 212 704 deaths [67.7% (95% CI 50.9, 74.6)] were attributable to modifiable risk factors in China in 2016. The overall PAF for liver cancer was approximately 1.5 times higher in men than in women, with the top three risk factors in men being hepatitis B virus (HBV), smoking and alcohol drinking, whereas in women, they were HBV, excess body weight and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Among the risk factor groups, infectious agents had the highest PAF, followed by behavioural factors and metabolic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The PAF for liver cancer caused by modifiable risk factors varies widely among provinces and socioeconomic and geographical regions in China. The use of tailored primary prevention strategies across provinces and socioeconomic and geographical regions has great potential to reduce the burden and disparities of liver cancer.

Changing prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China between 1973 and 2021: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of 3740 studies and 231 million people

OBJECTIVE

China concentrates a large part of the global burden of HBV infection, playing a pivotal role in achieving the WHO 2030 global hepatitis elimination target.

METHODS

We searched for studies reporting HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence in five databases until January 2023. Eligible data were pooled using a generalised linear mixed model with random effects to obtain summary HBsAg seroprevalence. Linear regression was used to estimate annual percentage change (APC) and HBsAg prevalence in 2021.

RESULTS

3740 studies, including 231 million subjects, were meta-analysed. HBsAg seroprevalence for the general population decreased from 9.6% (95% CI 8.4 to 10.9%) in 1973-1984 to 3.0% (95% CI 2.1 to 3.9%) in 2021 (APC=-3.77; p<0.0001). Decreases were more pronounced in children <5 years (APC=-7.72; p<0.0001) and 5-18 years (-7.58; p<0.0001), than in people aged 19-59 years (-2.44; p<0.0001), whereas HBsAg seroprevalence increased in persons ≥60 years (2.84; p=0.0007). Significant decreases were observed in all six major Chinese regions, in both men (APC=-3.90; p<0.0001) and women (-1.82; p<0.0001) and in high-risk populations. An estimated 43.3 million (95% uncertainty interval 30.7-55.9) persons remained infected with HBV in China in 2021 (3.0%), with notable heterogeneity by region (<1.5% in North China to>6% in Taiwan and Hong Kong) and age (0.3%, 1.0%, 4.7% and 5.6% for <5 years, 5-18 years, 19-59 years and ≥60 years, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

China has experienced remarkable decreases in HBV infection over the last four decades, but variations in HBsAg prevalence persist in subpopulations. Ongoing prevention of HBV transmission is needed to meet HBV elimination targets by 2030.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO (CRD42021284217).

Novel Assays to Solve the Clinical and Scientific Challenges of Chronic Hepatitis B

Chronic infection with Hepatitis B is a common, incurable, and deadly infection. Despite inexpensive laboratory tests for diagnosis and management that have been established for decades, the worldwide rate of diagnosis is only ∼10%, and ∼5% of people are under treatment. Novel assays have been developed to improve linkage to care by providing more flexible approaches to determine a patient's health status. Other assays have been established to better investigate intrahepatic host-virus interactions to support clinical trials for cure research. This review outlines the clinical and scientific challenges still to be solved and the upcoming methods used to address them.

Clinical application value of hepatitis B virus basal core promoter 1762/1764 and GGTII and GGT in patients with HBV-DNA-positive primary liver cancer

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is closely related to the occurrence and development of primary liver cancer (PLC). The early diagnosis of PLC is difficult. The study explored the clinical application value of the HBV gene basal core promoter (BCP) region 1762/1764 combined with gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) and its isozyme II (GGTII) in PLC.

METHODS

From June 2017 to June 2021, 145 hepatitis B surface antigen-positive and HBV DNA-positive patients were enrolled in the Third People Hospital of Zigong. Of them, 67 were chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients, 30 were liver cirrhosis patients, and 48 were patients with hepatitis B-associated PLC. The HBV BCP 1762/1764 mutation was detected through the amplification refractory mutation system fluorescence PCR method, and GGTII was detected using the double-antibody sandwich method.

RESULTS

The results showed that the serum GGT activity, GGTII level, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) activity, AST/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio, GGT/ALT ratio, and GGT/AST ratio were significantly different between the PLC and CHB groups. Statistically significant differences in serum GGT activity, AST activity, and GGT/ALT ratio were observed between the PLC and LC groups. The BCP 1762/1764 mutation rate between the PLC and CHB groups was statistically significant. The GGTII level in the early PLC (stage I + II) group and the advanced PLC (stage III + IV) group was higher than that in the N-PLC group. Serum GGT activity in the early PLC and advanced PLC groups was higher than that in the N-PLC group. The area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic curve of GGT and GGTII for diagnosing PLC was 0.775 (95% confidence interval [CI] [0.697, 0.854]) and 0.608 (95% CI [0.512, 0.704]), respectively. The area under curve of GGT and GGTII for diagnosing early PLC was 0.732 (95% CI [0.620, 0.845]) and 0.579 (95% CI [0.452, 0.706]), respectively.

CONCLUSION

HBV gene BCP 1762/1764 mutation, GGT, and GGTII may be related to PLC occurrence. The HBV gene BCP region 1762/1764 combined with GGT has certain clinical diagnostic values for PLC and early PLC. However, GGTII is not a good indicator of early PLC and is more relevant to advanced PLC.

Blueprint to hepatitis B elimination in China: A modelling analysis of clinical strategies

Background & Aims

Globally, one-third of individuals infected with HBV live in China. Eliminating HBV in China would therefore be paramount in achieving the World Health Organization's (WHO's) targets of viral hepatitis elimination as a worldwide public health threat.

Methods

We constructed a dynamic HBV transmission model in China, structured by age and sex. We calibrated the model by HBsAg prevalence, acute HBV incidence, and nationally reported HBV-related cancer mortality. We investigated seven intervention scenarios (A-G) based on assumptions in diagnostic, linkage-to-care, and treatment coverages in achieving the WHO's HBV elimination goals.

Results

With the status quo, HBsAg prevalence among children 1-4 years would reduce to 0.09% (95% CI 0.09-0.10%) by 2025; acute HBV incidence would drop to <2/100,000 person-years by 2024, achieving the elimination target of 90% incidence reduction. Nonetheless, China would not achieve a 65% reduction target in HBV-related mortality until 2059 with 9.98 (95% CI 9.27-10.70) million HBV-related deaths occurred by 2100. If China achieves 90% diagnostic and 80% treatment coverages (scenario E), HBV elimination would be achieved 8 years earlier, potentially saving 1.98 (95% CI 1.83-2.12) million lives. With more effective therapies for HBV control in preventing cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, elimination targets could be achieved in 2048 (scenario F) and 2038 (scenario G), additionally saving 3.59 (95% CI 3.37-3.82) and 5.19 (95% CI 4.83-5.55) million lives, respectively.

Conclusions

Eliminating HBV will require interventional strategies to improve diagnostic, linkage-to-care, and treatment coverages. Developing novel therapies will be crucial in further reducing HBV-related mortality and removing HBV as a public health threat.

Impact and Implications

This study explores the key developments and optimal intervention strategies needed to achieve WHO hepatitis B elimination targets by 2030 in China. It highlights that China can realise the HBV elimination targets in the incidence by 2025, and by upscaling diagnostic, linkage-to-care, and treatment coverages, up to 2 million lives could potentially be saved from HBV-related deaths.

Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Biomedical Interventions on Adult Hepatitis B Elimination in China: A Mathematical Modelling Study

BACKGROUND

China has one of the highest hepatitis B virus (HBV) disease burdens worldwide and tracking progress toward the 2030 HBV elimination targets is essential. This study aimed to assess the impact of biomedical interventions (i.e., adult vaccination, screening and treatment) on the adult HBV epidemic, estimate the time for HBV elimination, and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in China.

METHODS

A deterministic compartmental model was developed to project the HBV epidemic from 2022 to 2050 and estimate the time to meet elimination targets under four intervention scenarios. Cost-effectiveness was calculated using incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, i.e., average cost-effectiveness ratio (CER).

RESULTS

Under the status quo, there will be 42.09-45.42 million adults living with HBV in 2050 and 11.04-14.36 million HBV-related deaths cumulatively from 2022 to 2050. Universal vaccination would cumulatively avert 3.44-3.95 million new cases at a cost of US$1027-1261/QALY gained. The comprehensive strategy would cumulatively avert 4.67-5.24 million new chronic cases and 1.39-1.85 million deaths, expediting the realization of the elimination targets forward to 2049. This strategy was also cost-effective with an average CER of US$20,796-26,685/QALY and a saved healthcare cost of US$16.10-26.84 per person.

CONCLUSION

China is not on track to meet the elimination targets but comprehensive biomedical interventions can accelerate the realization of the targets. A comprehensive strategy is cost-effective and cost-saving, which should be promoted in primary care infrastructures. Universal adult vaccination may be appropriate in the near future considering practical feasibility.