Increasing risk over time of weather-related hazards to the European population: a data-driven prognostic study

Pre hospital emergency medical dispatches following heat waves: A systematic review study and meta-analysis

Given that climate change is a global phenomenon influencing various aspects of health, this study aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of heat waves on pre-hospital emergency medical dispatches (EMDs) worldwide. This study was conducted in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. Relevant English-language studies were searched using specific keywords related to "heat wave, EMDs, and health" in reputable databases such as Scopus, PubMed, and WoS from the inception of each database until December 2024. The selection of related studies was based on screening the title, abstract, and full text. Two researchers independently identified studies according to predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Out of 494 identified studies, 20 papers were evaluated. A random-effects model or a fixed-effects model was chosen based on the heterogeneity criterion. Publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot and Egger's test. The overall results of the meta-analysis indicated that heat waves, considering the 99th and 95th percentiles of temperature, are significantly associated with an increase in EMDs, with RRs of 1.11 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.15) and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.13), respectively. Additionally, heat waves significantly affect the number of EMDs for middle-aged and elderly individuals, with RRs of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.18, 1.78) and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.24), respectively. The overall results of the meta-analysis indicated that heat waves, considering the 95th and 99th percentiles of temperature, are significantly associated with an increase in EMDs due to cardiovascular diseases, with RRs of 1.054 (95% CI: 1.009, 1.100) and 1.038 (95% CI: 1.000, 1.075), respectively. Given the increasing trend of global warming and the subsequent rise in the incidence and intensity of heat waves, the pre-hospital medical emergency system must be prepared to respond appropriately to such events.

Exceptional heatwaves and mortality in Europe: Greater impacts since the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak

Record-breaking hot weather (exceptional heatwaves) has been increasingly common worldwide, posing a significant threat to human health. However, little is known about the effect of these exceptional heatwaves on mortality in Europe, especially since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, which converges with climate change to affect healthcare systems and human lives. We collected mortality data of 967 regions in 30 European countries over the last decade (2014-2023) from the Eurostat. A standard time-series analysis was used to estimate the effect of exceptional heatwaves by quasi-Poisson regression model, including the main effect (effect from heatwave intensity) and the added effect (effect from heatwave duration), on mortality for each region during two periods (before and since the COVID-19 outbreak). We used random effects meta-analysis to pool the mortality risk (i.e., relative risk [RR]) and burden (i.e., attributable fraction [AF]) associated with exceptional heatwaves, at the country level and for Europe as a whole. In Europe, the mortality burden attributable to main and added effects increased from 0.492% (95% CI: 0.488%-0.496%) to 1.276% (95% CI: 1.266%-1.285%) and from 0.307% (95% CI: 0.294%-0.318%) to 0.428% (95% CI: 0.407%-0.448%), respectively. Furthermore, substantial variations across countries were observed, with some countries such as France and Spain experiencing a large increase in the mortality burden attributable to exceptional heatwaves since the COVID-19 outbreak. Our findings underscore the urgent need for heat-health actions to consider the multi-effects of exceptional heatwaves amidst a warming climate.

Building resilient surgical systems that can withstand external shocks

When surgical systems fail, there is the major collateral impact on patients, society and economies. While short-term impact on patient outcomes during periods of high system stress is easy to measure, the long-term repercussions of global crises are harder to quantify and require modelling studies with inherent uncertainty. When external stressors such as high-threat infectious disease, forced migration or climate-change-related events occur, there is a resulting surge in healthcare demand. This, directly and indirectly, affects perioperative pathways, increasing pressure on emergency, critical and operative care areas. While different stressors have different effects on healthcare systems, they share the common feature of exposing the weakest areas, at which point care pathways breakdown. Surgery has been identified as a highly vulnerable area for early failure. Despite efforts by the WHO to improve preparedness in the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, measurement of healthcare investment and surgical preparedness metrics suggests that surgical care is not yet being prioritised by policy-makers. Investment in the 'response' phase of health system recovery without investment in the 'readiness' phase will not mitigate long-term health effects for patients as new stressors arise. This analysis aims to explore how surgical preparedness can be measured, identify emerging threats and explore their potential impact on surgical services. Finally, it aims to highlight the role of high-quality research in developing resilient surgical systems.

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U99). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms−1 °C−1. While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

How heatwaves affect short-term emergency hospital admissions due to bacterial foodborne diseases

The coming decades are likely to see of extreme weather events becoming more intense and frequent across Europe as a whole and around the Mediterranean in particular. The reproduction rate of some microorganisms, including the bacteria that cause foodborne diseases, will also be affected by these events. The aim of this study was thus to ascertain whether there might be a statistically significant relationship between emergency hospital admissions due to the principal bacterial foodborne diseases (BFDs) and the various meteorological variables, including heatwaves. We conducted a time-series study, with daily observations of both the dependent variable (emergency hospital admissions due to BFDs) and the independent variables (meteorological variables and control variables of chemical air pollution) across the period 2013-2018 in the Madrid Region (Spain), using Generalised Linear Models with Poisson regression, in which control and lag variables were included for the purpose of fitting the models. We calculated the threshold value of the maximum daily temperature above which such admissions increased statistically significantly, analysed data for the whole year and for the summer months alone, and estimated the relative and attributable risks. The estimated attributable risk was 3.6 % for every one-degree rise in the maximum daily temperature above 12 °C throughout the year, and 12.21 % for every one degree rise in temperature above the threshold heatwave definition temperature (34 °C) in summer. Furthermore, different meteorological variables displayed a statistically significant association. Whereas hours of sunlight and mean wind speed proved significant in the analyses of both the whole year and summer, the variables "rain" and "relative humidity", only showed a significant relationship in the analysis for the whole year. High ambient temperature is a risk factor that favours the increase in emergency hospitalisations attributable to the principal BFDs, with a greater impact being observed on days coinciding with heatwave periods. The results yielded by this study could serve as a basis for implementing BFD prevention strategies, especially on heatwave days.

Temperature and fertility: Evidence from Spain

In this paper, we combine administrative data for Spain from 2010 to 2018 with meteorological data, to identify the effect of daily mean temperature on fertility. We demonstrate for Spain that hot days (≥25°C) decrease the total fertility rate nine months after exposure. Moreover, we do not observe any substantial heterogeneities in the effect of heat by mother's age, mother's educational attainment, sex of the newborn, climatic area, or air conditioning penetration. Our results suggest that climate change may be altering the seasonal distribution of births and affect fertility rates in a context with low fertility and rapid population ageing.

Bivariate extreme value analysis of extreme temperature and mortality in Canada, 2000-2020

Climate change increases the risk of illness through rising temperature, severe precipitation and worst air pollution. This paper investigates how monthly excess mortality rate is associated with the increasing frequency and severity of extreme temperature in Canada during 2000-2020. The extreme associations were compared among four age groups across five sub-blocks of Canada based on the datasets of monthly T90 and T10, the two most representative indices of severe weather monitoring measures developed by the actuarial associations in Canada and US. We utilize a combined seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and bivariate Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method to investigate the extreme association via the extreme tail index χ and Pickands dependence function plots. It turns out that it is likely (more than 10%) to occur with excess mortality if there are unusual low temperature with extreme intensity (all χ > 0.1 except Northeast Atlantic (NEA), Northern Plains (NPL) and Northwest Pacific (NWP) for age group 0-44), while extreme frequent high temperature seems not to affect health significantly (all χ ≤ 0.001 except NWP). Particular attention should be paid to NWP and Central Arctic (CAR) since population health therein is highly associated with both extreme frequent high and low temperatures (both χ = 0.3182 for all age groups). The revealed extreme dependence is expected to help stakeholders avoid significant ramifications with targeted health protection strategies from unexpected consequences of extreme weather events. The novel extremal dependence methodology is promisingly applied in further studies of the interplay between extreme meteorological exposures, social-economic factors and health outcomes.

Multi-hazard assessment of climate-related hazards for European coastal cities

The assessment of risk posed by climate change in coastal cities encompasses multiple climate-related hazards. Sea-level rise, coastal flooding and coastal erosion are important hazards, but they are not the only ones. The varying availability and quality of data across cities hinders the ability to conduct holistic and standardized multi-hazard assessments. Indeed, there are far fewer studies on multiple hazards than on single hazards. Also, the comparability of existing methodologies becomes challenging, making it difficult to establish a cohesive understanding of the overall vulnerability and resilience of coastal cities. The use of indicators allows for a standardized and systematic evaluation of baseline hazards across different cities. The methodology developed in this work establishes a framework to assess a wide variety of climate-related hazards across diverse coastal cities, including sea-level rise, coastal flooding, coastal erosion, heavy rainfall, land flooding, droughts, extreme temperatures, heatwaves, cold spells, strong winds and landslides. Indicators are produced and results are compared and mapped for ten European coastal cities. The indicators are meticulously designed to be applicable across different geographical contexts in Europe. In this manner, the proposed approach allows interventions to be prioritized based on the severity and urgency of the specific risks faced by each city.

Hearing Loss and Disorders: The Repercussions of Climate Change

PURPOSE

Climate change is considered to be the greatest threat to human health in the 21st century, and its effects are accelerating. Extensive research has clearly demonstrated its increasing impact across the continuum of health conditions. Despite this, there has been limited attention to the ramifications of climate change on hearing loss and hearing disorders. This lack of consideration is somewhat surprising as the environment itself and its changing nature have a substantial effect on hearing.

METHOD

Tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century. To address this issue, this tutorial provides a general introduction to climate change and its three major elements (pollution, infectious diseases, and extreme weather events) and their effects on health. The substantial consequences of climate change for the incidence, development, and exacerbation of hearing loss and disorders are clearly described and detailed.

CONCLUSIONS

The challenge of responding to this very real and escalating threat to hearing requires a combination of prevention, advocacy, and education. These three roles place audiologists in the perfect position to take action on the far-reaching effects of climate change on hearing loss and disorders. To respond to this challenge and to fulfill these roles, several strategies, ranging from the individual level to the global level, are delineated for audiologists to incorporate into their practice.

The Impact of Telemedicine in Reducing the Carbon Footprint in Health Care: A Systematic Review and Cumulative Analysis of 68 Million Clinical Consultations

CONTEXT

Carbon footprint (CF) has emerged as an important factor when assessing health care interventions.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the reduction in CF for patients utilizing telemedicine.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

The PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were queried for studies describing telemedicine consultation and reporting on carbon emissions saved and the carbon emissions of telemedicine devices as primary outcomes, and travel distance and time and cost savings and safety as secondary outcomes. Outcomes were tabulated and calculated per consultation. Carbon emissions and travel distances were also calculated for each total study cohort. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale, and the Oxford level of evidence was determined.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

A total of 48 studies met the inclusion criteria, covering 68 465 481 telemedicine consultations and savings of 691 825 tons of CO2 emissions and 3 318 464 047 km of travel distance. Carbon assessment was mostly reported as the estimated distance saved using a conversion factor. Medical specialties used telemedicine to connect specialists with patients at home (n = 25) or at a local center (n = 6). Surgical specialties used telemedicine for virtual preoperative assessment (n = 9), follow-up (n = 4), and general consultation (n = 4). The savings per consultation were 21.9-632.17 min and $1.85-$325. More studies focused on the COVID-19 time frame (n = 33) than before the pandemic (n = 15). The studies are limited by calculations, mostly for the travel distance for carbon savings, and appropriate follow-up to analyze the real impact on travel and appointments.

CONCLUSIONS

Telemedicine reduces the CF of the health care sector. Expanding the use of telemedicine and educating providers and patients could further decrease CO2 emissions and save both money and time.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We reviewed 48 studies on the use of telemedicine. We found that people used their cars less and saved time and money, as well as CO2 emissions, if they used teleconsultations. Some studies only looked at how much CO2 from driving was saved, so there might be more to learn about the benefits of teleconsultations. The use of online doctor appointments is not only good for our planet but also helps patients in saving time and money. This review is registered on the PROSPERO database for systematic reviews (CRD42023456839).

Large sex differences in vulnerability to circulatory-system disease under current and future climate in Bucharest and its rural surroundings

Circulatory-system diseases (CSDs) are responsible for 50-60% of all deaths in Romania. Due to its continental climate, with cold winters and very warm summers, there is a strong temperature dependence of the CSD mortality. Additionally, within its capital Bucharest, the urban heat island (UHI) is expected to enhance (reduce) heat (cold)-related mortality. Using distributed lag non-linear models, we establish the relation between temperature and CSD mortality in Bucharest and its surroundings. A striking finding is the strong temperature-related response to high urban temperatures of women in comparison with men from the total CSDs mortality. In the present climate, estimates of the CSDs attributable fraction (AF) of mortality at high temperatures is about 66% higher in Bucharest than in its rural surroundings for men, while it is about 100% times higher for women. Additionally, the AF in urban areas is also significantly higher for elderly people, and for those with hypertensive and cerebrovascular diseases than in the rural surroundings. On the other hand, in rural areas, men but especially women are currently more vulnerable with respect to low temperatures than in the urban environment. In order to project future thermal-related mortality, we have used five bias-corrected climate projections from regional circulation models under two climate-change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Analysis of the temperature-mortality associations for future climate reveals the strongest signal under the scenario RCP8.5 for women, elderly people as well as for groups with hypertensive and cerebrovascular diseases. The net AF increase is much larger in urban agglomeration for women (8.2 times higher than in rural surroundings) and elderly people (8.5 times higher than in rural surroundings). However, our estimates of thermal attributable mortality are most likely underestimated due to the poor representation of UHI and future demography.

Regular physical activity across the lifespan to build resilience against rising global temperatures

Population aging, high prevalence of non-communicable diseases, physical inactivity, and rising global temperatures are some of the most pressing issues in public health of the current century. Such trends suggest that individuals increasingly less equipped to tolerate heat will be increasingly exposed to it, which from a public health perspective is alarming. Nonetheless, future impacts of extreme heat events will depend not only on the magnitude of climate change, but on our ability to adapt by becoming less sensitive and vulnerable. Although physical activity's role in mitigating climate change has received attention, its potential contribution to climate change adaptation and resilience remains largely unaddressed. Accordingly, in this viewpoint, we discuss how regular physical activity throughout life could have an important contribution to adapting to rising global temperatures, allowing to be better equipped to cope with heat-related health hazards and increasing individual and community resilience. This viewpoint constitutes a call for more research into the contribution that physical activity can have in adapting to rising global temperatures and, more broadly, to climate change.

Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe

European windstorms cause socioeconomic losses due to wind damage. Projections of future losses from such storms are subject to uncertainties from the frequency and tracks of the storms, their intensities and definitions thereof, and socio-economic scenarios. We use two storm severity indices applied to objectively identified extratropical cyclone footprints from a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models under different future socio-economic scenarios. Here we show storm frequency increases across northern and central Europe, where the meteorological storm severity index more than doubles. The population-weighted storm severity index more than triples, due to projected population increases. Adapting to the increasing wind speeds using future damage thresholds, the population weighted storm severity index increases are only partially offset, despite a reduction in the meteorological storm severity through adaptation. Through following lower emissions scenarios, the future increase in risk is reduced, with the population-weighted storm severity index increase more than halved.

Spatially-optimized urban greening for reduction of population exposure to land surface temperature extremes

The population experiencing high temperatures in cities is rising due to anthropogenic climate change, settlement expansion, and population growth. Yet, efficient tools to evaluate potential intervention strategies to reduce population exposure to Land Surface Temperature (LST) extremes are still lacking. Here, we implement a spatial regression model based on remote sensing data that is able to assess the population exposure to LST extremes in urban environments across 200 cities based on surface properties like vegetation cover and distance to water bodies. We define exposure as the number of days per year where LST exceeds a given threshold multiplied by the total urban population exposed, in person ⋅ day. Our findings reveal that urban vegetation plays a considerable role in decreasing the exposure of the urban population to LST extremes. We show that targeting high-exposure areas reduces vegetation needed for the same decrease in exposure compared to uniform treatment.

Scalable flood inundation mapping using deep convolutional networks and traffic signage

Floods are one of the most prevalent and costliest natural hazards globally. The safe transit of people and goods during a flood event requires fast and reliable access to flood depth information with spatial granularity comparable to the road network. In this research, we propose to use crowdsourced photos of submerged traffic signs for street-level flood depth estimation and mapping. To this end, a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) is utilized to detect traffic signs in user-contributed photos, followed by comparing the lengths of the visible part of detected sign poles before and after the flood event. A tilt correction approach is also designed and implemented to rectify potential inaccuracy in pole length estimation caused by tilted stop signs in floodwaters. The mean absolute error (MAE) achieved for pole length estimation in pre- and post-flood photos is 1.723 and 2.846 in., respectively, leading to an MAE of 4.710 in. for flood depth estimation. The presented approach provides people and first responders with a reliable and geographically scalable solution for estimating and communicating real-time flood depth data at their locations.

Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe

BACKGROUND

Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and age-specific risks.

METHODS

We included urban areas across Europe between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2019, using the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat and adults aged 20 years and older living in these areas. Data were extracted from Eurostat, the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Copernicus. We applied a three-stage method to estimate risks of temperature continuously across the age and space dimensions, identifying patterns of vulnerability on the basis of city-specific characteristics and demographic structures. These risks were used to derive minimum mortality temperatures and related percentiles and raw and standardised excess mortality rates for heat and cold aggregated at various geographical levels.

FINDINGS

Across the 854 urban areas in Europe, we estimated an annual excess of 203 620 (empirical 95% CI 180 882-224 613) deaths attributed to cold and 20 173 (17 261-22 934) attributed to heat. These corresponded to age-standardised rates of 129 (empirical 95% CI 114-142) and 13 (11-14) deaths per 100 000 person-years. Results differed across Europe and age groups, with the highest effects in eastern European cities for both cold and heat.

INTERPRETATION

Maps of mortality risks and excess deaths indicate geographical differences, such as a north-south gradient and increased vulnerability in eastern Europe, as well as local variations due to urban characteristics. The modelling framework and results are crucial for the design of national and local health and climate policies and for projecting the effects of cold and heat under future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council of UK, the Natural Environment Research Council UK, the EU's Horizon 2020, and the EU's Joint Research Center.

Effect of biomass burning on premature mortality associated with long-term exposure to PM2.5 in Equatorial Asia

The health burden from exposure to ambient fine particulates (PM_2.5) in Equatorial Asia is substantially affected by the peatland fires in Indonesia, but the long-term health effect of the fires on local inhabitants is unclear. In this study, PM_2.5-associated excess mortality in Equatorial Asia over the past 30 years (1990-2019) was estimated and then the health effect of biomass burning was identified. The PM_2.5-related death in Equatorial Asia almost tripled from 113 (95% confidence interval, 100-125) thousand in 1990 to 337 (300-373) thousand in 2019, with a rate of increase of 6.4 (6.2-6.9) thousand/yr. The intense biomass burning between 1990 and 2019 was estimated to have induced 317 (282-348) thousand excess deaths in the study regions, with excess deaths mainly occurring in the El Niño years, such as in 1997, 2006, 2015 and 2019. Although the remote sensing data and emission inventories both reveal that the effective control measures have reduced biomass burning intensity in Equatorial Asia (especially in Sumatra and Borneo), the corresponding health benefit has been offset by variations in demographic factors, i.e., population and age structure. Over the same period, fossil fuel emissions continued to increase rapidly. Thus, more stringent and ambitious policies are required to reduce the health burden from biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions simultaneously to maximize the health benefits from government measures and policies.

Importance of continuing health care before emergency hospital evacuation: a fatal case of a hospitalized patient in a hospital within 5 km radius of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant: a case report

BACKGROUND

After a disaster, it is essential to maintain the health care supply levels to minimize the health impact on vulnerable populations. During the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, hospitals within a 20 km radius were forced to make an immediate evacuation, causing a wide range of short- and long-term health problems. However, there is limited information on how the disaster disrupted the continuity of health care for hospitalized patients in the acute phase of the disaster.

CASE PRESENTATION

An 86-year-old Japanese man who needed central venous nutrition, oxygen administration, care to prevent pressure ulcers, skin and suctioning care of the trachea, and full assistance in the basic activities of daily living had been admitted to a hospital within 5 km radius of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant and experienced Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. After the accident, the hospital faced a manpower shortage associated with hospital evacuation, environmental changes caused by infrastructure and medical supply disruptions, and the difficulty of evacuating seriously ill patients. As a result, antibiotics and suction care for aspiration pneumonia could not be appropriately provided to the patient due to lack of caregivers and infrastructure shortages. The patient died before his evacuation was initiated, in the process of hospital evacuation.

CONCLUSIONS

This case illustrates that decline in health care supply levels to hospitalized patients before evacuation during the acute phase of a radiation-released disaster may lead to patient fatalities. It is important to maintain the health care supply level even in such situations as the radiation-released disaster; otherwise, patients may experience negative health effects.

Mortality Risk Related to Heatwaves in Dezful City, Southwest of Iran

BACKGROUND

We aimed to evaluate the impact of heatwaves on daily deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes in the city of Dezful in Iran from 2013 to 2019.

METHOD

We collected daily ambient temperature and mortality and defined 2 types of heatwaves by combining daily temperature ⩾90th in each month of the study period or since 30 years with duration ⩾2 and 3 days. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to study the association between each type of heatwave definition, and deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes with lags up to 13 days.

RESULTS

There was no discernible correlation in this area, despite the fact that heatwaves raised the risk of death from cardiovascular causes and lowered the risk from respiratory causes. On the other hand, the risk of total non-accidental mortality on days with the heatwaves is significantly higher than normal days. In main effects, the heatwaves have a significant relationship with the risk of total non-accidental mortality (in the first heatwave definition, Cumulative Excess Risk (CER) in lag_0-2 was 10.4 and in second heatwave definition, CER values in lag_{0, 0-2, and 0-6} were 12.4, 29.2, and 38.8 respectively). Also, in added effects, heatwaves have a significant relationship with the risk of total non-accidental mortality (in the first heatwave definition, CER in lag_{0 and 0-2} were 1.79 and 4.11 and in the second heatwave definition, CER values in lag_{0, 0-2, and 0-6} were 7.76, 18.35 and 24.87 respectively). In addition, heatwaves appeared to contribute to a cumulative excess risk of non-accidental death among the male group as well as the older adults.

CONCLUSION

However, the results showed that heatwaves could have detrimental effects on health, even in populations accustomed to the extreme heat. Therefore, early warning systems which monitor heatwaves should provide the necessary warnings to the population, especially the most vulnerable groups.

Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions

Human health is linked to climatic factors in complex ways, and climate change can have profound direct and indirect impacts on the health status of any given region. Susceptibility to climate change is modulated by biological, ecological and socio-political factors such as age, gender, geographic location, socio-economic status, occupation, health status and housing conditions, among other. In the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), climatic factors known to affect human health include extreme heat, water shortages and air pollution. Furthermore, the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) and the health consequences of population displacement are also influenced by climate change in this region. To inform future policies for adaptation and mitigation measures, and based on an extensive review of the available knowledge, we recommend several research priorities for the region. These include the generation of more empirical evidence on exposure-response functions involving climate change and specific health outcomes, the development of appropriate methodologies to evaluate the physical and psychological effects of climate change on vulnerable populations, determining how climate change alters the ecological determinants of human health, improving our understanding of the effects of long-term exposure to heat stress and air pollution, and evaluating the interactions between adaptation and mitigation strategies. Because national boundaries do not limit most climate-related factors expected to impact human health, we propose that adaptation/mitigation policies must have a regional scope, and therefore require collaborative efforts among EMME nations. Policy suggestions include a decisive region-wide decarbonisation, the integration of environmentally driven morbidity and mortality data throughout the region, advancing the development and widespread use of affordable technologies for the production and management of drinking water by non-traditional means, the development of comprehensive strategies to improve the health status of displaced populations, and fostering regional networks for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases and disease vectors.

Natural hazard insurance outcomes at national, regional and local scales: A comparison between Sweden and Portugal

This study addresses the role of natural hazard insurance in two European countries with different insurance markets and socioeconomic conditions: Sweden and Portugal. The analyses were conducted at the national, regional (Southern Sweden and Lisbon Metropolitan Area - LMA), and local (Malmö and Lisbon cities) scales. Most damage caused by weather and climate-related (WCR) hazards during the 1980-2019 period was not covered by insurance companies in Sweden (71%) and Portugal (91%). An insurance affordability analysis was performed using income for the national and regional scales. Unaffordability is higher in Southern Sweden than in LMA, implying that better socioeconomic conditions do not necessarily mean a higher average capacity to pay for insurance. At the local scale, urban flooding was analysed for Malmö (1996-2019) and Lisbon (2000-2011) using insurance databases, in which the most relevant 21st century rainfall events for each city are included (2014 and 2008, respectively). The influence of terrain features on flooding claims and payouts was determined using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) spatial analyses. The flat Malmö favours ponding and extensive flooding, while the distance to the drainage network and flow accumulation are key factors to promote flooding along valley bottoms in the hilly Lisbon. Flooding hotspots tend to result from a combination of higher depths/lower velocities (accumulation of floodwaters and ponding) and not from a pattern of lower depths/higher velocities (shallow overland flow). More detailed data on insurance, flooding, and socioeconomic conditions, at regional and mainly local scales, is needed to improve affordability and urban flooding risk assessments.

Projections of heatwave-attributable mortality under climate change and future population scenarios in China

Background

In China, most previous projections of heat-related mortality have been based on modeling studies using global climate models (GCMs), which can help to elucidate the risks of extreme heat events in a changing climate. However, spatiotemporal changes in the health effects of climate change considering specific regional characteristics remain poorly understood. We aimed to use credible climate and population projections to estimate future heatwave-attributable deaths under different emission scenarios and to explore the drivers underlying these patterns of changes.

Methods

We derived climate data from a regional climate model driven by three CMIP5 GCM models and calculated future heatwaves in China under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The future gridded population data were based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 assumption with different fertility rates. By applying climate zone-specific exposure-response functions to mortality during heatwave events, we projected the scale of heatwave-attributable deaths under each RCP scenario. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in heatwave-related deaths and main sources of uncertainty using a decomposition method. We compared differences in death burden under the 1.5°C target, which is closely related to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century.

Findings

The number of heatwave-related deaths will increase continuously to the mid-century even under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and will continue increasing throughout the century under RCP8.5. There will be 20,303 deaths caused by heatwaves in 2090 under RCP2.6, 35,025 under RCP4.5, and 72,260 under RCP8.5, with half of all heatwave-related deaths in any scenario concentrated in east and central China. Climate effects are the main driver for the increase in attributable deaths in the near future till 2060, explaining 78% of the total change. Subsequent population decline cannot offset the losses caused by higher incidence of heatwaves and an aging population under RCP8.5. Although health loss under the 1.5°C warming scenario is 1.6-fold higher than the baseline period 1986-2005, limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C can reduce the annual mortality burden in China by 3,534 deaths in 2090 compared with RCP2.6 scenarios.

Interpretation

With accelerating climate change and population aging, the effects of future heatwaves on human health in China are likely to increase continuously even under a low emission scenario. Significant health benefits are expected if the optimistic 1.5°C goal is achieved, suggesting that carbon neutrality by mid-century is a critical target for China's sustainable development. Policymakers need to tighten climate mitigation policies tailored to local conditions while enhancing climate resilience technically and infrastructurally, especially for vulnerable elderly people.

Funding

National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606200), Wellcome Trust (209734/Z/17/Z), Natural Science Foundation of China (41790471), and Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004).

Extreme Temperature and Mortality by Educational Attainment in Spain, 2012-2018

Extreme temperatures are a threat to public health, increasing mortality in the affected population. Moreover, there is substantial research showing how age and gender shape vulnerabilities to this environmental risk. However, there is only limited knowledge on how socioeconomic status (SES), operationalized using educational attainment, stratifies the effect of extreme temperatures on mortality. Here, we address this link using Poisson regression and administrative data from 2012 to 2018 for 50 Spanish Provinces on individuals aged above 65 matched with meteorological data provided by the E-OBS dataset. In line with previous studies, results show that hot and cold days increase mortality. Results on the interaction between SES and extreme temperatures show a positive and significant effect of exposure to heat and cold for individuals with medium and low SES level. Conversely, for high SES individuals we do not find evidence of a robust association with heat or cold. We further investigate how the local climate moderates these associations. A warmer climate increases risks with exposures to low temperatures and vice versa for hot temperatures in the pooled sample. Moreover, we observe that results are mostly driven by low SES individuals being particularly vulnerable to heat in colder climates and cold in warmer climates. In conclusion, results highlight how educational attainment stratifies the effect of extreme temperatures and the relevance of the local climate in shaping risks of low SES individuals aged above 65.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of Escherichia coli presence and magnitude across a national groundwater monitoring network, Republic of Ireland, 2011-2020

Groundwater is a vital drinking water resource and its protection from microbiological contamination is paramount to safeguard public health. The Republic of Ireland (RoI) is characterised by the highest incidence of verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC) enteritis in the European Union (EU), linked to high reliance on unregulated groundwater sources (~16% of the population). Yet, the spatio-temporal factors influencing the frequency and magnitude of microbial contamination remain largely unknown, with past studies typically constrained to spatio-temporally 'limited' sampling campaigns. Accordingly, the current investigation sought to analyse an extensive spatially distributed time-series (2011-2020) of groundwater monitoring data in the RoI. The dataset, compiled by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), showed 'high' contamination rates, with 66.7% (88/132) of supplies testing positive for E. coli, and 29.5% (39/132) exceeding concentrations of 10MPN/100 ml (i.e. gross contamination) at least once during the 10-year monitoring period. Seasonal decomposition analyses indicate that E. coli detection rates peak during late autumn/early winter, coinciding with increases in annual rainfall, while gross contamination peaks in spring (May) and late-summer (August), likely reflecting seasonal shifts in agricultural practices. Mixed effects logistic regression modelling indicates that monitoring sources located in karst limestone are statistically associated with E. coli presence (OR = 2.76, p = 0.03) and gross contamination (OR = 2.54, p = 0.037) when compared to poorly productive aquifers (i.e., transmissivity below 10m²/d). Moreover, 5-day and 30-day antecedent rainfall increased the likelihood of E. coli contamination (OR = 1.027, p < 0.001 and OR = 1.005, p = 0.016, respectively), with the former also being associated with gross contamination (OR = 1.042, p < 0.001). As such, it is inferred that preferential flow and direct ingress of surface runoff are the most likely ingress mechanisms associated with E. coli groundwater supply contamination. The results presented are expected to inform policy change around groundwater source protection and provide insight for the development of groundwater monitoring programmes in geologically heterogeneous regions.

Systemic Risks from Different Perspectives

Systemic risks are characterized by high complexity, multiple uncertainties, major ambiguities, and transgressive effects on other systems outside of the system of origin. Due to these characteristics, systemic risks are overextending established risk management and create new, unsolved challenges for policymaking in risk assessment and risk governance. Their negative effects are often pervasive, impacting fields beyond the obvious primary areas of harm. This article addresses these challenges of systemic risks from different disciplinary and sectorial perspectives. It highlights the special contributions of these perspectives and approaches and provides a synthesis for an interdisciplinary understanding of systemic risks and effective governance. The main argument is that understanding systemic risks and providing good governance advice relies on an approach that integrates novel modeling tools from complexity sciences with empirical data from observations, experiments, or simulations and evidence-based insights about social and cultural response patterns revealed by quantitative (e.g., surveys) or qualitative (e.g., participatory appraisals) investigations. Systemic risks cannot be easily characterized by single numerical estimations but can be assessed by using multiple indicators and including several dynamic gradients that can be aggregated into diverse but coherent scenarios. Lastly, governance of systemic risks requires interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral cooperation, a close monitoring system, and the engagement of scientists, regulators, and stakeholders to be effective as well as socially acceptable.

The association between E. coli exceedances in drinking water supplies and healthcare utilisation of older people

Evidence concerning the effects of indicators of waterborne pathogens on healthcare systems is of importance for policymaking, future infrastructure considerations and healthcare planning. This paper examines the association between the detection of E. coli in water tests associated with drinking water supplies and the use of healthcare services by older people in Ireland. Uniquely, three sources of data are linked to conduct the analysis. Administrative records of E. coli exceedances recorded from routine water quality tests carried out by Ireland’s Environmental Protection Agency are first linked to maps of water systems infrastructure in Ireland. Then, residential addresses of participants of The Irish Longitudinal Study of Ageing (TILDA), a nationally representative survey of over 50-year-olds in Ireland, are linked to the water systems dataset which has the associated water quality monitoring information. Multivariate regression analysis estimates a greater incident rate ratio (IRR) of General Practitioner (GP) visits in the previous year where E. coli is detected in the water supply associated with an older person’s residence (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 1.118; [95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.019–1.227]), controlling for demographic and socio-economic factors, health insurance coverage, health, and health behaviours. Where E. coli is detected in water, a higher IRR is also estimated for visits to an Emergency Department (IRR: 1.292; [95% CI: 0.995–1.679]) and nights spent in hospital (IRR: 1.351 [95% CI: 1.004–1.818]).

The health consequences of greenhouse gas emissions: a potential pathway

Excessive greenhouse gas emissions might be the major culprit for environmental degradation, which have direct and indirect adverse impacts in various ways. As the largest emitter of carbon emissions, China suffered great harm from climate change during the past 40 years. Therefore, it becomes necessary to study the impact of carbon emissions on health issues and their potential mechanism. Using the panel data from 30 provinces in China between 2002 and 2017, this study employes and extends the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model and mediating effect model to analyze the direct and indirect effects of carbon emissions. The main results are as follows: (1) Carbon emissions has a certain negative impact on public health, which would increase with the rise of temperature. (2) The increase in carbon emissions has a more significant negative effect on health with the average temperature exceeding 17.75 °C, indicating that the temperature has a threshold effect. (3) The potential health risks become higher with the development of urbanization, but there is no obvious spillover effect in the health consequences. The results remain robust after controlling other factors. This study supplements the literature of climate governance and human health, potentially contributing to the next stage of high-quality and sustainable development.

Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea

South Korea's population is declining and its composition changing, associated with lowest-low fertility rates and rapid aging (super aging). When estimating changes in future exposure to extreme heat events (EHE), events that are predicted to be intensified due to climate change, it is important to incorporate demographic dynamics. We analyze business-as-usual (BAU) population and climate scenarios-where BAU refers to no significant change in current processes and trends in either domain-from 2010 to 2060 for South Korea. Data for both BAU scenarios are spatially linked and used to measure and identify national and sub-national and age-group specific EHE exposure. The results reveal an increasing exposure to EHE over time at the national level, but this varies widely within the country, measured at the municipal level. The most intensive exposure levels will be in the decade ending in 2040 driven by high estimated severe EHE. Sub-nationally, Seoul will be the most vulnerable municipality associated with super aging, while severe EHE not demographic factors will be relevant in Daegu, the second-most vulnerable metropolitan area. By 2060, national estimates suggest the older population will be up to four times more exposed to EHE than today. While the population of South Korea will decline, the rapid aging of the population ensures that specific regions of the country will become exceedingly vulnerable to EHE.

Universal Climate Thermal Index as a prognostic tool in medical science in the context of climate change: A systematic review

The assessment of the impact of meteorological factors on the epidemiology of various diseases and on human pathophysiology and physiology requires a comprehensive approach and new tools independent of currently occurring climate change. The thermal comfort index, i.e., Universal Climate Thermal Index (UTCI), is gaining more and more recognition from researchers interested in such assessments. This index facilitates the evaluation of the impact of cold stress and heat stress on the human organism and the assessment of the incidence of weather-related diseases. This work aims at identifying those areas of medical science for which the UTCI was applied for scientific research as well as its popularization among clinicians, epidemiologists, and specialists in public health management. This is a systematic review of literature found in Pubmed, Sciencedirect and Web of Science databases from which, consistent with PRISMA guidelines, original papers employing the UTCI in studies related to health, physiological parameters, and epidemiologic applications were extracted. Out of the total number of 367 papers identified in the databases, 33 original works were included in the analysis. The selected publications were analyzed in terms of determining the areas of medical science in which the UTCI was applied. The majority of studies were devoted to the broadly understood mortality, cardiac events, and emergency medicine. A significant disproportion between publications discussing heat stress and those utilizing the UTCI for its assessment was revealed.

Combining Flood Risk Mitigation and Carbon Sequestration to Optimize Sustainable Land Management Schemes: Experiences from the Middle-Section of Hungary’s Tisza River

The record floods experienced along the Tisza River between 1998 and 2001 brought a paradigm shift in infrastructural solutions for flood protection. A flood peak polder system was built for transient water storage without any substantial change in land use in the polders, despite the potential to do so under the new scheme. The recent improvement of quantified flood risk assessment methodologies and stronger foundations for the valuation of carbon sequestration benefits now provide more information on the magnitude of missed opportunities and the potential for comprehensive land use and flood risk management solutions. This paper evaluates and combines the results of three cost-benefit type analyses on the conflicting relations of pursuing flood risk mitigation and land management goals. Although the studies were conducted at different locations of the same river stretch, they are all inspected using the same flood waves. Results assert that as EU-CAP agricultural subsidies stabilize individual benefits from arable land use in the short-run, public benefits and long-term individual benefits fail to reach their potential value. The combined analysis of flood risk change and CO2 sequestration provides the economic rationale for the ecological revitalization along rivers with flood peak polders, helping to solve the conflict between hydrological and ecological objectives in floodplains. Capitalizing the value of the community benefits of forests in terms of CO2 sequestration is limited by the unresolved property rights allocation of this natural capacity between landowners and the state, the latter being responsible for fulfilling international CO2 reduction agreements; this uncertain legal background is an obstacle to the creation of sustainable economic conditions for the development and expansion of beneficial land management processes along rivers.

Heat-related mortality amplified during the COVID-19 pandemic

Excess mortality not directly related to the virus has been shown to have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, changes in heat-related mortality during the pandemic have not been addressed in detail. Here, we performed an observational study crossing daily mortality data collected in Portugal (SICO/DGS) with high-resolution temperature series (ERA5/ECMWF), characterizing their relation in the pre-pandemic, and how it aggravated during 2020. The combined result of COVID-19 and extreme temperatures caused the largest annual mortality burden in recent decades (~ 12 000 excess deaths [~ 11% above baseline]). COVID-19 caused the largest fraction of excess mortality during March to May (62%) and from October onwards (85%). During summer, its direct impact was residual, and deaths not reported as COVID-19 dominated excess mortality (553 versus 3 968). A prolonged hot spell led mortality to the upper tertile, reaching its peak in mid-July (+ 45% deaths/day). The lethality ratio (+ 14 deaths per cumulated ºC) was higher than that observed in recent heatwaves. We used a statistical model to estimate expected deaths due to cold/heat, indicating an amplification of at least 50% in heat-related deaths during 2020 compared to pre-pandemic years. Our findings suggest mortality during 2020 has been indirectly amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic, due to the disruption of healthcare systems and fear of population in attending healthcare facilities (expressed in emergency room admissions decreases). While lockdown measures and healthcare systems reorganization prevented deaths directly related to the virus, a significant burden due to other causes represents a strong secondary impact. This was particularly relevant during summer hot spells, when the lethality ratio reached magnitudes not experienced since the 2003 heatwaves. This severe amplification of heat-related mortality during 2020 stresses the need to resume normal healthcare services and public health awareness.

Introducing the Architecture of FASTER: A Digital Ecosystem for First Responder Teams

Emergency first responders play an important role during search and rescue missions, by helping people and saving lives. Thus, it is important to provide them with technology that will maximize their performance and their safety on the field of action. IFAFRI, the “International Forum to Advanced First Responder Innovation” has pointed out several capability gaps that are found in the existing solutions. Based on them, there is a need for the development of novel, modern digital solutions that will better assist responders by helping them on the field and, at the same time, better protect them. The work presented here introduces the logical architecture implemented in the Horizon 2020 project called FASTER (First responders Advanced technologies for Safe and efficienT Emergency Response), which is an innovating digital ecosystem for emergency first response teams. It is a system that meets the requirements of the consortium members but also fills all the gaps that IFARFI has pointed out and consists of mechanisms and tools for data communication, data analysis, monitoring, privacy protection and smart detection mechanisms.

Estimating China’s Population over 21st Century: Spatially Explicit Scenarios Consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

Accurate and reliable subnational and spatially explicit population projections under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for China will be helpful for understanding long-term demographic changes and formulating targeted mitigation and adaptation policies under climate change. In this study, national and provincial populations for China by age, sex, and education level to 2100 under five SSPs were estimated using the population-development-environment model. These parameters include fertility, mortality, migration, and education and consider the most recent birth policy in China. To quantify these projections spatially, the gridded population was provided at 1 km × 1 km by spatial downscaling. Results show the national population is highest under SSP3, with 1.71 × 109 people in 2100. Guangdong, Henan, and Shandong are the most populous in SSP1, 2, 4, 5, while Guangxi is the most populous province in SSP3, reaching 1.54 × 108 people. The differences in education level among scenarios are obvious, especially in 2100 where education level for SSP1 and SSP5 is the highest. The spatial distribution of population varies across the country, with the majority of the population concentrated in southern and eastern China, especially in the coastal regions. Our results under different SSPs could provide a reference to project disaster risks, formulate relevant policies and guide sustainable development from a long-term perspective.

Soil Remediation: Towards a Resilient and Adaptive Approach to Deal with the Ever-Changing Environmental Challenges

Pollution from numerous contaminants due to many anthropogenic activities affects soils quality. Industrialized countries have many contaminated sites; their remediation is a priority in environmental legislation. The aim of this overview is to consider the evolution of soil remediation from consolidated invasive technologies to environmentally friendly green strategies. The selection of technology is no longer exclusively based on eliminating the source of pollution but aims at remediation, which includes the recovery of soil quality. “Green remediation” appears to be the key to addressing the issue of remediation of contaminated sites as it focuses on environmental quality, including the preservation of the environment. Further developments in green remediation reflect the aim of promoting clean-up strategies that also address the effects of climate change. Sustainable and resilient remediation faces the environmental challenge of achieving targets while reducing the environmental damage caused by clean-up interventions and must involve an awareness that social systems and environmental systems are closely connected.

Water Governance in Mediterranean Farming Systems through the Social-Ecological Systems Framework—An Empirical Case in Southern Portugal

Water governance is a major challenge in the Mediterranean context. Any action to drive water governance towards sustainability needs to be grounded in a holistic understanding of such challenges. Therefore, a first step towards the improvement of water governance is a grounded understanding of what is at stake, who are the actors involved, and how they interact. To achieve this level of understanding, we propose the use of the social–ecological Systems (SES) framework. This framework was developed to grasp the complexity of issues related to the sustainable use of public goods such as water. This study looks at water governance in the farming sector of three municipalities in the Alentejo and Algarve, in the south of Portugal. Data were collected using a literature review and 22 semi-structured interviews with territorial actors (i.e., public administration, non-governmental associations, private sector, decision-makers, and farmers). By using the SES framework, we provide an integrated characterization of water governance in the case study and identify the implicated factors. Between these factors, and focusing on the overlap between literature and actors’ perspectives, are (1) the lack of integrated and supported strategies for development, and (2) lack of communication between the actors that need to congregate efforts towards sustainable use of water resources. The study found few examples of collective efforts and long-lasting networks of collaboration, especially between science and practice. We conclude by arguing that place-based tailored policies are needed. Such policies should promote communication and collective actions between researchers, local organizations, public administration, and farmers.

Urban heat: an increasing threat to global health

Shilu Tong and colleagues describe the health consequences of extreme urban heat and the priorities for action and research to mitigate the harms

The Impact of Sustainability Goals on Productivity Growth: The Moderating Role of Global Warming

The objective of this paper was to gain novel insights into the complex relationships among Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in shaping productivity (GDP/capita) growth. Using dynamic panel regressions on data collected in 138 countries between 2000 and 2017, we found that rising temperatures negatively affect growth and mitigate the impact of other SDGs on growth. We also found that CO₂ emissions have a U-shaped relationship with growth; life expectancy negatively influences growth (positively moderated by rising temperatures), and food security positively impacts growth (negatively moderated by rising temperatures). This study highlights the difficulty of simultaneously implementing SDGs and elucidates novel research perspectives and policies to decrease the negative impacts of climate change on socio-economic and environmental well-being.

Health Risks to the Russian Population from Temperature Extremes at the Beginning of the XXI Century

Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters caused by climatic hazards have a significant and increasing direct and indirect impact on human health. Due to its vast area, complex geographical environment and various climatic conditions, Russia is one of the countries that suffers significantly from frequent climate hazards. This paper provides information about temperature extremes in Russia in the beginning of the 21st century, and their impact on human health. A literature search was conducted using the electronic databases Web of Science, Science Direct, Scopus, and e-Library, focusing on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English and in Russian from 2000 to 2021. The results are summarized in 16 studies, which are divided into location-based groups, including Moscow, Saint Petersburg and other large cities located in various climatic zones: in the Arctic, in Siberia and in the southern regions, in ultra-continental and monsoon climate. Heat waves in cities with a temperate continental climate lead to a significant increase in all-cause mortality than cold waves, compared with cities in other climatic zones. At the same time, in northern cities, in contrast to the southern regions and central Siberia, the influence of cold waves is more pronounced on mortality than heat waves. To adequately protect the population from the effects of temperature waves and to carry out preventive measures, it is necessary to know specific threshold values of air temperature in each city.

Psychological impairment and extreme weather event (EWE) exposure, 1980-2020: A global pooled analysis integrating mental health and well-being metrics

Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) impose a substantial health and socio-economic burden on exposed populations. Projected impacts on public health, based on increasing EWE frequencies since the 1950s, alongside evidence of human-mediated climatic change represents a growing concern. To date, the impacts of EWEs on mental health remain ambiguous, largely due to the inherent complexities in linking extreme weather phenomena with psychological status. This exploratory investigation provides a new empirical and global perspective on the psychological toll of EWEs by exclusively focusing on psychological morbidity among individuals exposed to such events. Morbidity data collated from a range of existing psychological and well-being measures have been integrated to develop a single ("holistic") metric, namely, psychological impairment. Morbidity, and impairment, were subsequently pooled for key disorders-, specifically PTSD, anxiety and depression. A "composite" (any impairment) post-exposure pooled-prevalence rate of 23% was estimated, with values of 24% calculated for depression and ⁓17% for both PTSD and anxiety. Notably, calculated pooled odds ratios (pOR = 1.9) indicate a high likelihood of any negative psychological outcome (+90%) following EWE exposure. Pooled analyses of reported risk factors (p < 0.05) highlight the pronounced impacts of EWEs among individuals with higher levels of event exposure or experienced stressors (14.5%) and socio-demographic traits traditionally linked to vulnerable sub-populations, including female gender (10%), previous history (i.e., pre-event) of psychological impairment (5.5%), lower socio-economic status (5.5%), and a lower education level (5.2%). Inherent limitations associated with collating mental health data from populations exposed to EWEs, and key knowledge gaps in the field are highlighted. Study findings provide a robust evidence base for developing and implementing public health intervention strategies aimed at ameliorating the psychological impacts of extreme weather among exposed populations.

Awareness and barriers to sustainability in dentistry: A scoping review

OBJECTIVES

(i) To undertake a comprehensive scoping review of the literature that addresses the research question 'What is the current state of environmental sustainability in general dental practice?' (ii) To provide an effective baseline of data that will consider general awareness, barriers and challenges for the implementation of sustainable practice.

DATA & SOURCES

The scoping review was conducted for all published literature in the English language that addresses this topic up to the 31st April 2021. The method of the PRISMA-ScR (PRISMA extension for Scoping Reviews) was followed. 128 papers included in this scoping review consisted of: Commentary [Letters, editorials, communication and opinion] (n = 39); Research (n = 60); Literature reviews (n = 25); Reports [Policy and legislation] (n = 4). Each included record was analysed for emerging themes that were further classified according to their general relevance. The scoping review is considered over two manuscripts, with this first paper focusing on awareness of the problem and barriers or challenges to the implementation of sustainable care.

CONCLUSIONS

Eight diverse but closely interlinked themes that influence the sustainability of oral health provision were identified: Environmental impacts (CO2e, air and water); Reduce, reuse, recycle and rethink; Policy and guidelines; Biomedical waste management; Plastics (SUPs); Procurement; Research & Education; Materials. Barriers to implementation were identified as: Lack of professional and public awareness; carbon emissions arising from patient and staff commute; challenges associated with the recovery and recycling of biomedical waste with a focus on SUPs; lack of knowledge and education into sustainable healthcare provision and; the challenges from the manufacturing, use and disposal of dental materials.

Natural disasters and infectious disease in Europe: a literature review to identify cascading risk pathways

Background

Natural disasters are increasing in their frequency and complexity. Understanding how their cascading effects can lead to infectious disease outbreaks is important for developing cross-sectoral preparedness strategies. The review focussed on earthquakes and floods because of their importance in Europe and their potential to elucidate the pathways through which natural disasters can lead to infectious disease outbreaks.

Methods

A systematic literature review complemented by a call for evidence was conducted to identify earthquake or flooding events in Europe associated with potential infectious disease events.

Results

This review included 17 peer-reviewed papers that reported on suspected and confirmed infectious disease outbreaks following earthquakes (4 reports) or flooding (13 reports) in Europe. The majority of reports related to food- and water-borne disease. Eleven studies described the cascading effect of post-disaster outbreaks. The most reported driver of disease outbreaks was heavy rainfall, which led to cross-connections between water and other environmental systems, leading to the contamination of rivers, lakes, springs and water supplies. Exposure to contaminated surface water or floodwater following flooding, exposure to animal excreta and post-disaster living conditions were among other reported drivers of outbreaks.

Conclusions

The cascade effects of natural disasters, such as earthquakes and floods, include outbreaks of infectious disease. The projection that climate change-related extreme weather events will increase in Europe in the coming century highlights the importance of strengthening preparedness planning and measures to mitigate and control outbreaks in post-disaster settings.

Spatial Heterogeneity and Complexity of the Impact of Extreme Climate on Vegetation in China

The impact of extreme climate on natural ecosystems and socioeconomic systems is more serious than that of the climate’s mean state. Based on the data of 1698 meteorological stations in China from 2001 to 2018, this study calculated the 27 extreme climate indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Through correlation analysis and collinearity diagnostics, we selected two representative extreme temperature indices and three extreme precipitation indices. The spatial scale of the impact of extreme climate on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in China during the growing season from 2001 to 2018 was quantitatively analyzed, and the complexity of the dominant factors in different regions was discussed via clustering analysis. The research results show that extreme climate indices have a scale effect on vegetation. There are spatial heterogeneities in the impacts of different extreme climate indices on vegetation, and these impacts varied between the local, regional and national scales. The relationship between the maximum length of a dry spell (CDD) and NDVI was the most spatially nonstationary, and mostly occurred on the local scale, while the effect of annual total precipitation when the daily precipitation amount was more than the 95th percentile (R95pTOT) showed the greatest spatial stability, and mainly manifested at the national scale. Under the current extreme climate conditions, extreme precipitation promotes vegetation growth, while the influence of extreme temperature is more complicated. As regards intensity and range, the impact of extreme climate on NDVI in China over the past 18 years can be categorized into five types: the humidity-promoting type, the cold-promoting and drought-inhibiting compound type, the drought-inhibiting type, the heat-promoting and drought-inhibiting compound type, and the heat-promoting and humidity-promoting compound type. Drought is the greatest threat to vegetation associated with extreme climate in China.

Human health outcomes at the neighbourhood scale implications: Elderly's heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality and its influencing factors

The excessively warm weather, especially in cities, can lead to several adverse impacts, including heat-related mortality, becoming an increasingly important public health issue. Previous studies on heat-related mortality have assessed risk factors at the municipal scale, missing the intra-urban variability in heat risk and vulnerability. The knowledge of the spatial intra-variability can help to design spatially targeted measures to better protect citizens' health. Through hot spot analysis, we identified the neighbourhood-scale spatial pattern of heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality in the elderly, during the yearly warmest five months of a three years period. Potential associations between spatial variability in heat-related mortality and several independent factors in each neighbourhood were investigated and their predictions. Two approaches were adopted: one is eminently statistical, using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and another using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). This new recent regression technique is increasing in international attention on spatial modelling. The spatial model explains about 60% of the spatial variations in elderly's heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality. The two-analyses produced an overlapping set of predictor variables, with emphasis on the elderly, vegetation cover and employment. The results also show that the areas where heat-related mortality is high, are also the areas where the number of deaths is higher than expected. These neighbourhoods should be considered as the most vulnerable to heat-related mortality. We concluded that studying human health outcomes at neighbourhood-scale is relevant for public health heat-related plans. Essential suggestions are provided to decision-making support and city planners designing strategies to reduce heat-related mortality.

Extreme weather events in europe and their health consequences - A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Due to climate change, the frequency, intensity and severity of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, cold waves, storms, heavy precipitation causing wildfires, floods, and droughts are increasing, which could adversely affect human health. The purpose of this systematic review is therefore to assess the current literature about the association between these extreme weather events and their impact on the health of the European population.

METHODS

Observational studies published from January 1, 2007 to May 17, 2020 on health effects of extreme weather events in Europe were searched systematically in Medline, Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. The exposures of interest included extreme temperature, heat waves, cold waves, droughts, floods, storms and wildfires. The health impacts included total mortality, cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, respiratory mortality and morbidity, and mental health. We conducted the systematic review following PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis). The quality of the included studies was assessed using the NICE quality appraisal checklist (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence).

RESULTS

The search yielded 1472 articles, of which 35 met the inclusion criteria and were included in our review. Studies regarding five extreme weather events (extreme heat events, extreme cold events, wildfires, floods, droughts) were found. A positive association between extreme heat/cold events and overall, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was reported from most studies. Wildfires are likely to increase the overall and cardiovascular mortality. Floods might be associated with the deterioration of mental health instead of mortality. Depending on their length, droughts could have an influence on both respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. Contradictory evidence was found in heat-associated morbidity and wildfire-associated respiratory mortality. The associations are inconclusive due to the heterogeneous study designs, study quality, exposure and outcome assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence from most of the included studies showed that extreme heat and cold events, droughts, wildfires and floods in Europe have negative impacts on human health including mental health, although some of the associations are not conclusive. Additional high-quality studies are needed to confirm our results and further studies regarding the effects of other extreme weather events in Europe are to be expected.

Excess Mortality in England during the 2019 Summer Heatwaves

There is increasing evidence that rising temperatures and heatwaves in the United Kingdom are associated with an increase in heat-related mortality. However, the Public Health England (PHE) Heatwave mortality monitoring reports, which use provisional death registrations to estimate heat-related mortality in England during heatwaves, have not yet been evaluated. This study aims to retrospectively quantify the impact of heatwaves on mortality during the 2019 summer period using daily death occurrences. Second, using the same method, it quantifies the heat-related mortality for the 2018 and 2017 heatwave periods. Last, it compares the results to the estimated excess deaths for the same period in the PHE Heatwave mortality monitoring reports. The number of cumulative excess deaths during the summer 2019 heatwaves were minimal (161) and were substantially lower than during the summer 2018 heatwaves (1700 deaths) and summer 2017 heatwaves (1489 deaths). All findings were at variance with the PHE Heatwave mortality monitoring reports which estimated cumulative excess deaths to be 892, 863 and 778 during the heatwave periods of 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively. Issues are identified in the use of provisional death registrations for mortality monitoring and the reduced reliability of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) daily death occurrences database before 2019. These findings may identify more reliable ways to monitor heat mortality during heatwaves in the future.

An IoE and Big Multimedia Data Approach for Urban Transport System Resilience Management in Smart Cities

Today, the complexity of urban systems combined with existing and emerging threats constrains administrations to consider smart technologies and related huge amounts of data generated as a means to take timely and informed decisions. The smart city needs to be prepared for both expected and unexpected situations, and the possibility to mitigate the effect of the uncertainty behind the causes of disruptions through the analysis of all the possible data generated by the city open new possibility for resilience operationalization. This article aims at introducing a new conceptualization for resilience and presenting an innovative full stack solution to exploit Internet of Everything (IoE) and big multimedia data in smart cities to manage resilience of urban transport systems (UTS), which is one of the most critical infrastructures of the city. The approach is based on a novel data driven approach to resilience engineering and functional resonance analysis method (FRAM), to understand and model an UTS in the context of smart cities and to support evidence driven decision making. The paper proposes an architecture taking into account: (a) different kinds of available data generated in the smart city, (b) big data collection and semantic aggregation and enrichment; (c) data sense-making process composed by analytics of different data sources like social media, communication networks, IoT, user behavior; (d) tools for knowledge driven decisions able to combine different information generated by analytics, experience, and structural information of the city into a comprehensive and evidence driven decision model. The solution has been applied in Florence metropolitan city in the context of RESOLUTE H2020 research project of the European Commission.

The Impact of Heavy Snowfall on Home Care: A 2018 Case Study in Fukui City, Japan

OBJECTIVE

Little is known regarding how home care is affected by extreme weather. In February 2018, Fukui City in Japan experienced unprecedented levels of snowfall. We examined snowfall impact on the provision of home care to elucidate whether patients incurred any harm.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study using clinical and administrative records from a clinic in Fukui City was conducted on 294 patients (mean age = 69.9 ± 27.7 years; women = 60.5%, median age = 81). The study period was from February 5 to February 18, 2018. We analysed the patients' characteristics, daily trend of planned/actual patient visits, emergency transportation situations, and local snow accumulation. We summarized the situation in the clinic.

RESULTS

There were 326 planned home visits, however only 121 (37%) occurred. Despite this, there were only 2 emergency transfers. Although the available clinical staff was limited, they managed to contact most patients via telephone and social networking services.

CONCLUSION

Although the number of home visits dramatically decreased, the number of emergency transfers did not increase. This study therefore highlights the necessity for effective disaster preparation, such as assessment training, or use of telemedicine, and on-site decision-making to maintain home care during disasters.

Building capacity for mainstreaming nature-based solutions into environmental policy and landscape planning

Nature-based solutions (NBS) is a term often used to refer to adequate green infrastructure that provides multiple benefits to society whilst addressing societal challenges. They are defined as actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural or modified ecosystems that address societal challenges effectively and adaptively, simultaneously providing human well-being and biodiversity benefits. Malta, the smallest member state of the EU, has been characterised by rapid economic growth and urbanisation and Maltese citizens had the highest rate of exposure to pollution, grime or other environmental problems, in the EU. The project ReNature aims to establish and implement a nature-based solutions research strategy for Malta with a vision to promote research and innovation and develop sustainable solutions whilst improving human well-being and tackling environmental challenges. Here, we introduce the opening of ReNature collection of research articles in the Open Access Research Ideas and Outcomes (RIO) journal to publish unconventional research outputs and training materials. It will host key outputs relating to the sustainable use of biodiversity, biodiversity – ecosystem functioning, green infrastructure and ecosystem service assessments across rural-urban gradients, equitable access to the benefits derived from nature in cities and socio-environmental justice, payments for ecosystem services, and designing nature-based solutions.

Heat related mortality in the two largest Belgian urban areas: A time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Summer temperatures are expected to increase and heat waves will occur more frequently, be longer, and be more intense as a result of global warming. A growing body of evidence indicates that increasing temperature and heatwaves are associated with excess mortality and therefore global heating may become a major public health threat. However, the heat-mortality relationship has been shown to be location-specific and differences could largely be explained by the most frequent temperature. So far, in Belgium there is little known regarding the heat-mortality relationship in the different urban areas.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to assess the heat-mortality relationship in the two largest urban areas in Belgium, i.e. Antwerp and Brussels for the warm seasons from 2002 until 2011 taking into account the effect of air pollution.

METHODS

The threshold in temperature above which mortality increases was determined using segmented regressions for both urban areas. The relationship between daily temperature and mortality above the threshold was investigated using a generalized estimated equation with Poisson distribution to finally determine the percentage of deaths attributable to the effect of heat.

RESULTS

Although only 50 km apart, the heat-mortality curves for the two urban areas are different. More specifically, an increase in mortality occurs above a maximum temperature of 25.2 °C in Antwerp and 22.8 °C in Brussels. We estimated that above these thresholds, there is an increase in mortality of 4.9% per 1 °C in Antwerp and of 3.1% in Brussels. During the study period, 1.5% of the deaths in Antwerp and 3.5% of the deaths in Brussels can be attributed to the effect of heat. The thresholds differed considerably from the most frequent temperature, particularly in Antwerp. Adjustment for air pollution attenuated the effect of temperature on mortality and this attenuation was more pronounced when adjusting for ambient ozone.

CONCLUSION

Our results show a significant effect of temperature on mortality above a city-specific threshold, both in Antwerp and in Brussels. These findings are important given the ongoing global warming. Recurrent, intense and longer episodes of high temperature and expected changes in air pollutant levels will have an important impact on health in urban areas.