Density dependence and overdispersion in the transmission of helminth parasites

Antigenic strain diversity predicts different biogeographic patterns of maintenance and decline of antimalarial drug resistance

The establishment and spread of antimalarial drug resistance vary drastically across different biogeographic regions. Though most infections occur in sub-Saharan Africa, resistant strains often emerge in low-transmission regions. Existing models on resistance evolution lack consensus on the relationship between transmission intensity and drug resistance, possibly due to overlooking the feedback between antigenic diversity, host immunity, and selection for resistance. To address this, we developed a novel compartmental model that tracks sensitive and resistant parasite strains, as well as the host dynamics of generalized and antigen-specific immunity. Our results show a negative correlation between parasite prevalence and resistance frequency, regardless of resistance cost or efficacy. Validation using chloroquine-resistant marker data supports this trend. Post discontinuation of drugs, resistance remains high in low-diversity, low-transmission regions, while it steadily decreases in high-diversity, high-transmission regions. Our study underscores the critical role of malaria strain diversity in the biogeographic patterns of resistance evolution.

Antigenic strain diversity predicts different biogeographic patterns of maintenance and decline of anti-malarial drug resistance

The establishment and spread of anti-malarial drug resistance vary drastically across different biogeographic regions. Though most infections occur in Sub-Saharan Africa, resistant strains often emerge in low-transmission regions. Existing models on resistance evolution lack consensus on the relationship between transmission intensity and drug resistance, possibly due to overlooking the feedback between antigenic diversity, host immunity, and selection for resistance. To address this, we developed a novel compartmental model that tracks sensitive and resistant parasite strains, as well as the host dynamics of generalized and antigen-specific immunity. Our results show a negative correlation between parasite prevalence and resistance frequency, regardless of resistance cost or efficacy. Validation using chloroquine-resistant marker data supports this trend. Post discontinuation of drugs, resistance remains high in low-diversity, low-transmission regions, while it steadily decreases in high-diversity, high-transmission regions. Our study underscores the critical role of malaria strain diversity in the biogeographic patterns of resistance evolution.

PALEOEPIDEMIOLOGY OF DIPHYLLOBOTHRIOSIS: CULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AFFECTING ADENOCEPHALUS INTENSITY AND PREVALENCE

Peruvian and Chilean mummies and coprolites provide a source of population-based parasitological information. This is especially true of the fish tapeworm, Adenocephalus pacificus. Our analysis of Chinchorro and Chiribaya mummies and diversified coprolite samples from Chile and Peru show variation in infection. There is a statistically significant difference in prevalence between Chinchorro hunter-gatherer and Chiribaya mixed-subsistence contexts. Furthermore, the most pronounced differences occur between populations within these groups. Chinchorro differences in cemeteries at the same location can be related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation variations. Pronounced prevalence variations between 3 Chiribaya villages within 7 km of each other relate to fish distribution and preparation variation. As with other recent archaeoparasitology studies, eggs-per-gram data exhibit overdispersion.

Anthelmintic Treatment and the Stability of Parasite Distribution in Ruminants

Parasites are generally overdispersed among their hosts, with far-reaching implications for their population dynamics and control. The factors determining parasite overdispersion have long been debated. In particular, stochastic parasite acquisition and individual host variation in density-dependent regulation through acquired host immunity have been identified as key factors, but their relative roles and possible interactions have seen little empirical exploration in parasite populations. Here, Taylor's power law is applied to test the hypothesis that periodic parasite removal destabilises the host-parasite relationship and increases variance in parasite burden around the mean. The slope of the power relationship was compared by analysis of covariance among 325 nematode populations in wild and domestic ruminants, exploiting that domestic ruminants are often routinely treated against parasite infections. In Haemonchus spp. and Trichostrongylus axei in domestic livestock, the slope increased with the frequency of anthelmintic treatment, supporting this hypothesis. In Nematodirus spp., against which acquired immunity is known to be strong, the slope was significantly greater in post-mortem worm burden data than in faecal egg counts, while this relationship did not hold for the less immunogenic genus Marshallagia. Considered together, these findings suggest that immunity acting through an exposure-dependent reduction in parasite fecundity stabilises variance in faecal egg counts, reducing overdispersion, and that periodic anthelmintic treatment interferes with this process and increases overdispersion. The results have implications for the diagnosis and control of parasitic infections in domestic animals, which are complicated by overdispersion, and for our understanding of parasite distribution in free-living wildlife. Parasite-host systems, in which treatment and immunity effectively mimic metapopulation processes of patch extinction and density dependence, could also yield general insights into the spatio-temporal stability of animal distributions.

Diagnosis of helminths depends on worm fecundity and the distribution of parasites within hosts

Helminth transmission and morbidity are dependent on the number of mature parasites within a host; however, observing adult worms is impossible for many natural infections. An outstanding challenge is therefore relating routine diagnostics, such as faecal egg counts, to the underlying worm burden. This relationship is complicated by density-dependent fecundity (egg output per worm reduces due to crowding at high burdens) and the skewed distribution of parasites (majority of helminths aggregated in a small fraction of hosts). We address these questions for the carcinogenic liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini, which infects approximately 10 million people across Southeast Asia, by analysing five epidemiological surveys (n = 641) where adult flukes were recovered. Using a mechanistic model, we show that parasite fecundity varies between populations, with surveys from Thailand and Laos demonstrating distinct patterns of egg output and density-dependence. As the probability of observing faecal eggs increases with the number of mature parasites within a host, we quantify diagnostic sensitivity as a function of the worm burden and find that greater than 50% of cases are misdiagnosed as false negative in communities close to elimination. Finally, we demonstrate that the relationship between observed prevalence from routine diagnostics and true prevalence is nonlinear and strongly influenced by parasite aggregation.

A comparison of Mini-FLOTAC and McMaster techniques, overdispersion and prevalence of parasites in naturally infected North American bison (Bison bison) in the USA

Several quantitative diagnostic techniques are available to estimate gastrointestinal parasite counts in the feces of ruminants. Comparing egg and oocyst magnitudes in naturally infected samples has been a recommended approach to rank fecal techniques. In this study, we compared the Mini-FLOTAC (sensitivity of 5 eggs per gram (EPG)/oocysts per gram (OPG)) and different averaged replicates of the modified McMaster techniques (sensitivity of 33.33 EPG/OPG) in 387 fecal samples from 10 herds of naturally infected North American bison in the Central Great Plains region of the USA. Both techniques were performed with fecal slurries homogenized in a fill-FLOTAC device. In the study population, prevalence of strongyle eggs, Eimeria spp. oocysts, Moniezia spp. eggs and Trichuris spp. eggs was 81.4%, 73.9%, 7.5%, and 3.1%, respectively. Counts of strongyle eggs and Eimeria spp. oocysts obtained from 1 to 3 averaged technical replicates of the modified McMaster technique were compared to a single replicate of the Mini-FLOTAC. Correlation between the two techniques increased with an increase in the number of averaged technical replicates of the modified McMaster technique used to calculate EGP/OPG. The correlation for Moniezia spp. EPG when averaged triplicates of the modified McMaster technique were compared to a single replicate of the Mini-FLOTAC count was high; however, the correlation for Trichuris spp. eggs was low. Additionally, we used averaged counts from both techniques to show the overdispersion of parasites in bison herds.

•

Mini-FLOTAC is an acceptable alternative to the McMaster for bison parasites.

•

Increasing technical replicates of McMaster increases correlation with mini-FLOTAC.

•

Gastrointestinal parasites are overdispersed in bison.

The role of IgA in gastrointestinal helminthiasis: A systematic review

Immunoglobulin-A (IgA) is an important mediator of immunity and has been associated with protection against several pathogens, although its role in gastrointestinal infections remains unclear. Then, the aim of this systematic review was to synthesize qualitative evidence in respect of IgA as mediator of protective immunity against gastrointestinal helminths. Following recommended guidelines, we searched for articles published between January 1990 and October 2019 that evaluated IgA levels and their association with gastrointestinal helminth infections. Twenty-five articles were included after screening 1,546 titles and abstracts, as well as reading in full 52 selected articles. Consistent associations between higher IgA levels and lower parasitological parameters were only found in mice, rats, and sheep. However, the role of IgA in other host species remains uncertain, making it difficult to create a consensus. Therefore, it is too soon to claim that IgA is an effective protective factor against gastrointestinal helminths, and further studies are still needed.

Vaccine-induced time- and age-dependent mucosal immunity to gastrointestinal parasite infection

Individuals vary broadly in their response to vaccination and subsequent challenge infection, with poor vaccine responders causing persistence of both infection and transmission in populations. Yet despite having substantial economic and societal impact, the immune mechanisms that underlie such variability, especially in infected tissues, remain poorly understood. Here, to characterise how antihelminthic immunity at the mucosal site of infection developed in vaccinated lambs, we inserted gastric cannulae into the abomasa of three-month- and six-month-old lambs and longitudinally analysed their local immune response during subsequent challenge infection. The vaccine induced broad changes in pre-challenge abomasal immune profiles and reduced parasite burden and egg output post-challenge, regardless of age. However, age affected how vaccinated lambs responded to infection across multiple immune pathways: adaptive immune pathways were typically age-dependent. Identification of age-dependent and age-independent protective immune pathways may help refine the formulation of vaccines, and indicate specificities of pathogen-specific immunity more generally.

The rise of ecological parasitology: twelve landmark advances that changed its history

In the five decades since the first publication of the International Journal for Parasitology, ecological parasitology has grown from modest beginnings to become a modern discipline with a strong theoretical foundation, a diverse toolkit, and a multidisciplinary approach. In this review, I highlight 12 advances in the field that have spurred its growth over the past 50 years. Where relevant, I identify pivotal contributions that have altered the course of research, as well as the influence of developments in other fields such as mainstream ecology and molecular biology. The 12 key advances discussed are in areas including parasite population dynamics and community assembly, the regulation of host population abundance and food web structure, parasites as agents of natural selection, the impacts of biodiversity and anthropogenic changes on host-parasite interactions, the biogeography of parasite diversity, and the evolutionary genetics of parasites. I conclude by identifying some challenges and opportunities lying ahead, which need to be met for the future growth of ecological research on host-parasite interactions.

Gastrointestinal infection in Italy during the Roman Imperial and Longobard periods: A paleoparasitological analysis of sediment from skeletal remains and sewer drains

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate parasitic infection in Italy during the Roman period (27 BCE-476 CE) and subsequent Longobard (Lombard) period (6th-8th CE).

MATERIALS

Sediment samples from drains and burials from Roman Imperial-period sites in Italy (Lucus Feroniae, Oplontis, Vacone, and Vagnari), Late Antique and Longobard-period burials at Selvicciola (ca. 4th-8th CE), and Longobard-period burials at Vacone and Povegliano Veronese.

METHODS

Microscopy was used to identify helminth eggs and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect protozoan antigens.

RESULTS

Roundworm and whipworm were found in pelvic sediment from Roman-period burials, while roundworm and the protozoan Giardia duodenalis were identified in Roman-period drains. In pelvic sediment from the Late Antique through Longobard periods, roundworm and Taenia tapeworm eggs were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Fecal-oral parasites were found throughout Imperial Roman Italy, suggesting that gastrointestinal infections caused a significant disease burden. In the Longobard period we see continuity in transmission of fecal-oral parasites, and the appearance of zoonotic parasites acquired from eating undercooked meat.

SIGNIFICANCE

A wealth of information exists about certain diseases in the Roman period, but relatively little is known about intestinal parasites in Italy during the Roman and Longobard periods. This is the first evidence for Giardia in Roman period Italy, and for any parasites in the Longobard period in Italy.

LIMITATIONS

Low egg concentrations and lack of controls for some samples makes it difficult to differentiate true infections from environmental contamination in some cases.

SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

Continual study of samples from Roman and Longobard period Italy.

Towards Evidence-based Control of Opisthorchis viverrini

Transmission of the carcinogenic liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini is ongoing across Southeast Asia. Endemic countries within the region are in different stages of achieving control. However, evidence on which interventions are the most effective for reducing parasite transmission, and the resulting liver cancer, is currently lacking. Quantitative modelling can be used to evaluate different control measures against O. viverrini and assist the design of clinical trials. In this article we evaluate the epidemiological parameters that underpin models of O. viverrini and the data necessary for their estimation, with the aim of developing evidence-based strategies for parasite control at a national or regional level.

Last-come, best served? Mosquito biting order and Plasmodium transmission

A pervasive characteristic of parasite infections is their tendency to be overdispersed. Understanding the mechanisms underlying this overdispersed distribution is of key importance as it may impact the transmission dynamics of the pathogen. Although multiple factors ranging from environmental stochasticity to inter-individual heterogeneity may explain parasite overdispersion, parasite infection is also overdispersed in an inbred host population maintained under laboratory conditions, suggesting that other mechanisms are at play. Here, we show that the aggregated distribution of malaria parasites within mosquito vectors is partially explained by a temporal heterogeneity in parasite infectivity triggered by the bites of mosquitoes. Parasite transmission tripled between the mosquito's first and last blood feed in a period of only 3 h. Surprisingly, the increase in transmission is not associated with an increase in parasite investment in production of the transmissible stage. Overall, we highlight that Plasmodium is capable of responding to the bites of mosquitoes to increase its own transmission at a much faster pace than initially thought and that this is partly responsible for overdispersed distribution of infection. We discuss the underlying mechanisms as well as the broader implications of this plastic response for the epidemiology of malaria.

The increased sensitivity of qPCR in comparison to Kato-Katz is required for the accurate assessment of the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth infection in settings that have received multiple rounds of mass drug administration

Background

The most commonly used diagnostic tool for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) is the Kato-Katz (KK) thick smear technique. However, numerous studies have suggested that the sensitivity of KK can be problematic, especially in low prevalence and low intensity settings. An emerging alternative is quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR).

Methods

In this study, both KK and qPCR were conducted on stool samples from 648 participants in an STH epidemiology study conducted in the delta region of Myanmar in June 2016.

Results

Prevalence of any STH was 20.68% by KK and 45.06% by qPCR. Prevalence of each individual STH was also higher by qPCR than KK, the biggest difference was for hookworm with an approximately 4-fold increase between the two diagnostic techniques. Prevalence of Ancylostoma ceylanicum, a parasite predominately found in dogs, was 4.63%, indicating that there is the possibility of zoonotic transmission in the study setting. In individuals with moderate to high intensity infections there is evidence for a linear relationship between eggs per gram (EPG) of faeces, derived from KK, and DNA copy number, derived from qPCR which is particularly strong for Ascaris lumbricoides.

Conclusions

The use of qPCR in low prevalence settings is important to accurately assess the epidemiological situation and plan control strategies for the ‘end game’. However, more work is required to accurately assess STH intensity from qPCR results and to reduce the cost of qPCR so that is widely accessible in STH endemic countries.

Modelling exposure heterogeneity and density dependence in onchocerciasis using a novel individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM: Implications for elimination and data needs

BACKGROUND

Density dependence in helminth establishment and heterogeneity in exposure to infection are known to drive resilience to interventions based on mass drug administration (MDA). However, the interaction between these processes is poorly understood. We developed a novel individual-based model for onchocerciasis transmission, EPIONCHO-IBM, which accounts for both processes. We fit the model to pre-intervention epidemiological data and explore parasite dynamics during MDA with ivermectin.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Density dependence and heterogeneity in exposure to blackfly (vector) bites were estimated by fitting the model to matched pre-intervention microfilarial prevalence, microfilarial intensity and vector biting rate data from savannah areas of Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire/Burkina Faso using Latin hypercube sampling. Transmission dynamics during 25 years of annual and biannual ivermectin MDA were investigated. Density dependence in parasite establishment within humans was estimated for different levels of (fixed) exposure heterogeneity to understand how parametric uncertainty may influence treatment dynamics. Stronger overdispersion in exposure to blackfly bites results in the estimation of stronger density-dependent parasite establishment within humans, consequently increasing resilience to MDA. For all levels of exposure heterogeneity tested, the model predicts a departure from the functional forms for density dependence assumed in the deterministic version of the model.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first, stochastic model of onchocerciasis, that accounts for and estimates density-dependent parasite establishment in humans alongside exposure heterogeneity. Capturing the interaction between these processes is fundamental to our understanding of resilience to MDA interventions. Given that uncertainty in these processes results in very different treatment dynamics, collecting data on exposure heterogeneity would be essential for improving model predictions during MDA. We discuss possible ways in which such data may be collected as well as the importance of better understanding the effects of immunological responses on establishing parasites prior to and during ivermectin treatment.

Helminths and microbes within the vertebrate gut - not all studies are created equal

The multifaceted interactions occurring between gastrointestinal (GI) parasitic helminths and the host gut microbiota are emerging as a key area of study within the broader research domain of host-pathogen relationships. Over the past few years, a wealth of investigations has demonstrated that GI helminths interact with the host gut flora, and that such interactions result in modifications of the host immune and metabolic statuses. Nevertheless, whilst selected changes in gut microbial composition are consistently observed in response to GI helminth infections across several host-parasite systems, research in this area to date is largely characterised by inconsistent findings. These discrepancies are particularly evident when data from studies of GI helminth-microbiota interactions conducted in humans from parasite-endemic regions are compared. In this review, we provide an overview of the main sources of variance that affect investigations on helminth-gut microbiota interactions in humans, and propose a series of methodological approaches that, whilst accounting for the inevitable constraints of fieldwork, are aimed at minimising confounding factors and draw biologically meaningful interpretations from highly variable datasets.

A comparison of helminth infections as assessed through coprological analysis and adult worm burdens in a wild host

Coprological analysis is the most widely used diagnostic tool for helminth infection in both domestic and wild mammals. Evaluation of the efficacy of this technique is rare, due to the lack of availability of adult worm burden. Where information is available the majority of studies are in small ruminants and seldom in a wild host. This study of 289 wild badgers is the first to report the relationship between faecal egg/larval counts and adult worm burden in badgers whilst also evaluating the reliability of coprological analysis as a diagnostic tool for hookworm (Uncinaria criniformis) and lungworm (Aelurostrongylus falciformis) infection. The prevalence of hookworm and lungworm infection, as assessed through adult worm burden was 59.2% and 20.8% respectively. For both species of helminth, infection was consistently under-reported by coprological analysis compared to adult worm burden with a reported 41% sensitivity for hookworm and 10% for lungworm. A significant positive relationship was found between faecal counts and adult worm burden for both species of helminths. Additionally the density –dependent relationship often reported in helminth infection appears to be weak or non-existent in this study, up to the observed worm intensity of 500.

•

Hookworm infection is endemic within the Irish badger population.

•

Lungworm infection is also common in Irish badgers.

•

Coprological analysis has a low sensitivity for diagnosing infection compared to adult worm burden.

•

Faecal is a reliable indicator of intensity of infection.

•

Density-dependence is weak, or non-existent up to the observed intensity of 500 worms.

Modelling the elimination of river blindness using long-term epidemiological and programmatic data from Mali and Senegal

•

Onchocerciasis is earmarked for elimination in some African countries by 2020/2025.

•

15+ years of ivermectin treatment drove infection prevalence to zero in areas of Mali & Senegal.

•

Data-driven model projections are used to evaluate the risk of infection resurgence.

•

Latent infections can initiate slow resurgence in communities with high transmission propensity.

•

Highly sensitive and long-term surveillance will be necessary to verify elimination.

The onchocerciasis transmission models EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have been independently developed and used to explore the feasibility of eliminating onchocerciasis from Africa with mass (annual or biannual) distribution of ivermectin within the timeframes proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and endorsed by the 2012 London Declaration on Neglected Tropical Diseases (i.e. by 2020/2025). Based on the findings of our previous model comparison, we implemented technical refinements and tested the projections of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM against long-term epidemiological data from two West African transmission foci in Mali and Senegal where the observed prevalence of infection was brought to zero circa 2007–2009 after 15–17 years of mass ivermectin treatment. We simulated these interventions using programmatic information on the frequency and coverage of mass treatments and trained the model projections using longitudinal parasitological data from 27 communities, evaluating the projected outcome of elimination (local parasite extinction) or resurgence. We found that EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM captured adequately the epidemiological trends during mass treatment but that resurgence, while never predicted by ONCHOSIM, was predicted by EPIONCHO in some communities with the highest (inferred) vector biting rates and associated pre-intervention endemicities. Resurgence can be extremely protracted such that low (microfilarial) prevalence between 1% and 5% can be maintained for 3–5 years before manifesting more prominently. We highlight that post-treatment and post-elimination surveillance protocols must be implemented for long enough and with high enough sensitivity to detect possible residual latent infections potentially indicative of resurgence. We also discuss uncertainty and differences between EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM projections, the potential importance of vector control in high-transmission settings as a complementary intervention strategy, and the short remaining timeline for African countries to be ready to stop treatment safely and begin surveillance in order to meet the impending 2020/2025 elimination targets.

The Immune and Non-Immune Pathways That Drive Chronic Gastrointestinal Helminth Burdens in the Wild

Parasitic helminths are extremely resilient in their ability to maintain chronic infection burdens despite (or maybe because of) their hosts’ immune response. Explaining how parasites maintain these lifelong infections, identifying the protective immune mechanisms that regulate helminth infection burdens, and designing prophylactics and therapeutics that combat helminth infection, while preserving host health requires a far better understanding of how the immune system functions in natural habitats than we have at present. It is, therefore, necessary to complement mechanistic laboratory-based studies with studies on wild populations and their natural parasite communities. Unfortunately, the relative paucity of immunological tools for non-model species has held these types of studies back. Thankfully, recent progress in high-throughput ‘omics platforms provide powerful and increasingly practical means for immunologists to move beyond traditional lab-based model organisms. Yet, assigning both metabolic and immune function to genes, transcripts, and proteins in novel species and assessing how they interact with other physiological and environmental factors requires identifying quantitative relationships between their expression and infection. Here, we used supervised machine learning to identify gene networks robustly associated with burdens of the gastrointestinal nematode Heligmosomoides polygyrus in its natural host, the wild wood mice Apodemus sylvaticus. Across 34 mice spanning two wild populations and across two different seasons, we found 17,639 transcripts that clustered in 131 weighted gene networks. These clusters robustly predicted H. polygyrus burden and included well-known effector and regulatory immune genes, but also revealed a number of genes associated with the maintenance of tissue homeostasis and hematopoiesis that have so far received little attention. We then tested the effect of experimentally reducing helminth burdens through drug treatment on those putatively protective immune factors. Despite the near elimination of H. polygyrus worms, the treatment had surprisingly little effect on gene expression. Taken together, these results suggest that hosts balance tissue homeostasis and protective immunity, resulting in relatively stable immune and, consequently, parasitological profiles. In the future, applying our approach to larger numbers of samples from additional populations will help further increase our ability to detect the immune pathways that determine chronic gastrointestinal helminth burdens in the wild.

Assessing endgame strategies for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis: A model-based evaluation of the impact of DEC-medicated salt

Concern is growing regarding the prospects of achieving the global elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) by 2020. Apart from operational difficulties, evidence is emerging which points to unique challenges that could confound achieving LF elimination as extinction targets draw near. Diethylcarbamazine (DEC)-medicated salt may overcome these complex challenges posed by the endgame phase of parasite elimination. We calibrated LF transmission models using Bayesian data-model assimilation techniques to baseline and follow-up infection data from 11 communities that underwent DEC salt medication. The fitted models were used to assess the utility of DEC salt treatment for achieving LF elimination, in comparison with other current and proposed drug regimens, during the endgame phase. DEC-medicated salt consistently reduced microfilaria (mf) prevalence from 1% mf to site-specific elimination thresholds more quickly than the other investigated treatments. The application of DEC salt generally required less than one year to achieve site-specific LF elimination, while annual and biannual MDA options required significantly longer durations to achieve the same task. The use of DEC-medicated salt also lowered between-site variance in extinction timelines, especially when combined with vector control. These results indicate that the implementation of DEC-medicated salt, where feasible, can overcome endgame challenges facing LF elimination programs.

A model to assess the efficacy of vaccines for control of liver fluke infection

Fasciola hepatica, common liver fluke, infects cattle and sheep causing disease and production losses costing approximately $3 billion annually. Current control relies on drugs designed to kill the parasite. However, resistance is evident worldwide and widespread in some areas. Work towards a vaccine has identified several antigens of F. hepatica that show partial efficacy in terms of reducing worm burden and egg output. A critical question is what level of efficacy is required for such a vaccine to be useful? We have created the first mathematical model to assess the effectiveness of liver fluke vaccines under simulated field conditions. The model describes development of fluke within a group of animals and includes heterogeneity in host susceptibility, seasonal exposure to metacercariae and seasonal changes in temperature affecting metacercarial survival. Our analysis suggests that the potential vaccine candidates could reduce total fluke burden and egg output by up to 43% and 99%, respectively, on average under field conditions. It also suggests that for a vaccine to be effective, it must protect at least 90% of animals for the whole season. In conclusion, novel, partial, vaccines could contribute substantially towards fasciolosis control, reducing usage of anthelmintics and thus delaying the spread of anthelmintic resistance.

River Blindness: Mathematical Models for Control and Elimination

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is one of the few neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) whose control strategies have been informed by mathematical modelling. With the change in focus from elimination of the disease burden to elimination of Onchocerca volvulus, much remains to be done to refine, calibrate and validate existing models. Under the impetus of the NTD Modelling Consortium, the teams that developed EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have joined forces to compare and improve these frameworks to better assist ongoing elimination efforts. We review their current versions and describe how they are being used to address two key questions: (1) where can onchocerciasis be eliminated with current intervention strategies by 2020/2025? and (2) what alternative/complementary strategies could help to accelerate elimination where (1) cannot be achieved? The control and elimination of onchocerciasis from the African continent is at a crucial crossroad. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control closed at the end of 2015, and although a new platform for support and integration of NTD control has been launched, the disease will have to compete with a myriad of other national health priorities at a pivotal time in the road to elimination. However, never before had onchocerciasis control a better arsenal of intervention strategies as well as diagnostics. It is, therefore, timely to present two models of different geneses and modelling traditions as they come together to produce robust decision-support tools. We start by describing the structural and parametric assumptions of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM; we continue by summarizing the modelling of current treatment strategies with annual (or biannual) mass ivermectin distribution and introduce a number of alternative strategies, including other microfilaricidal therapies (such as moxidectin), macrofilaricidal (anti-wolbachial) treatments, focal vector control and the possibility of an onchocerciasis vaccine. We conclude by discussing challenges, opportunities and future directions.

The Role of More Sensitive Helminth Diagnostics in Mass Drug Administration Campaigns: Elimination and Health Impacts

Diagnostics play a crucial role in determining treatment protocols and evaluating success of mass drug administration (MDA) programmes used to control soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). The current diagnostic, Kato-Katz, relies on inexpensive, reusable materials and can be used in the field, but only trained microscopists can read slides. This diagnostic always underestimates the true prevalence of infection, and the accuracy worsens as the true prevalence falls. We investigate how more sensitive diagnostics would impact on the management and life cycle of MDA programmes, including number of mass treatment rounds, health impact, number of unnecessary treatments and probability of elimination. We use an individual-based model of STH transmission within the current World Health Organization (WHO) treatment guidelines which records individual disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost. We focus on Ascaris lumbricoides due to the availability of high-quality data on existing diagnostics. We show that the effect of improving the sensitivity of diagnostics is principally determined by the precontrol prevalence in the community. Communities at low true prevalence (<30%) and high true prevalence (>70%) do not benefit greatly from improved diagnostics. Communities with intermediate prevalence benefit greatly from increased chemotherapy application, both in terms of reduced DALY loss and increased probability of elimination. Our results suggest that programmes should be extended beyond school-age children, especially in high prevalence communities. Finally, we argue against using apparent or measured prevalence as an uncorrected proxy for true prevalence.

Spatial distribution of infectious stages of the nematode Syngamus trachea within pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) release pens on estates in the South West of England: Potential density dependence?

The spatial distribution of the infectious stages of parasites with a direct life cycle is one of the most important factors influencing infectious disease dynamics, and acquisition rates will generally increase as the contact time between parasite and host increases. For animal species that are constrained by feeding opportunities, one might expect disease patterns to be highly skewed within confined systems. The aim of the present study was to identify to what extent, if any, eggs of avian parasites are aggregated within the release pen, and to evaluate what effect, if any, this aggregation had on the distribution of the adult stages within the host species. The abundance of Syngamus trachea eggs were highly aggregated within pens, with high levels of contamination driven by a combination of feeder placement, soil moisture and host-mediated heterogeneities in immuno-competence. The log mean and log variance of egg abundance was highly linear (R(2)=0.97-0.99), with an estimated slope (b) of between 1.79 and 1.97 for individual sites, and 2.11 when sites were combined, which indicated aggregation relative to an estimated Poisson slope of unity. Although the placement of feeders and environmental moisture could be contributing to parasite aggregation, density-dependent processes appear to be ensuring the population does not become too over or under-dispersed, in order to maintain the transmission-virulence equilibrium. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to explicitly demonstrate the high spatial aggregation of eggs around feeding sites and the first to suggest possible density-dependent regulatory mechanisms stabilising disease dynamics between S. trachea and ring necked Pheasants (Phasianus colchicus).

The Allee effect and elimination of neglected tropical diseases: a mathematical modelling study

Elimination and control programmes for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are underway around the world, yet they are generally informed by epidemiological modelling only to a rudimentary degree. Chief among the modelling-derived predictors of disease emergence or controllability is the basic reproduction number R0. The ecological systems of several of the NTDs include density-dependent processes--which alter the rate of e.g. parasite establishment or fecundity--that complicate the calculation of R0. Here we show how the forms of the density-dependent functions for a model of the NTD lymphatic filariasis affect the effective reproduction number Reff. We construct infection transmission models containing various density-dependent functions and show how they alter the shape of the Reff profile, affecting two important epidemiological outcome variables that relate to elimination and control programmes: the parasite transmission breakpoint (or extinction threshold) and the reproduction fitness, as measured by Reff. The current drive to control, eliminate or eradicate several parasitic infections would be substantially aided by the existence of ecological Allee effects. For these control programmes, the findings of this paper are encouraging, since a single positive density dependency (DD) can introduce a reasonable chance of achieving elimination; however, there are diminishing returns to additional positive DDs.

Population biology of Schistosoma mating, aggregation, and transmission breakpoints: more reliable model analysis for the end-game in communities at risk

Mathematical modeling is widely used for predictive analysis of control options for infectious agents. Challenging problems arise for modeling host-parasite systems having complex life-cycles and transmission environments. Macroparasites, like Schistosoma, inhabit highly fragmented habitats that shape their reproductive success and distribution. Overdispersion and mating success are important factors to consider in modeling control options for such systems. Simpler models based on mean worm burden (MWB) formulations do not take these into account and overestimate transmission. Proposed MWB revisions have employed prescribed distributions and mating factor corrections to derive modified MWB models that have qualitatively different equilibria, including ‘breakpoints’ below which the parasite goes to extinction, suggesting the possibility of elimination via long-term mass-treatment control. Despite common use, no one has attempted to validate the scope and hypotheses underlying such MWB approaches. We conducted a systematic analysis of both the classical MWB and more recent “stratified worm burden” (SWB) modeling that accounts for mating and reproductive hurdles (Allee effect). Our analysis reveals some similarities, including breakpoints, between MWB and SWB, but also significant differences between the two types of model. We show the classic MWB has inherent inconsistencies, and propose SWB as a reliable alternative for projection of long-term control outcomes.

Elimination of African onchocerciasis: modeling the impact of increasing the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is currently shifting its focus from morbidity control to elimination of infection. To enhance the likelihood of elimination and speed up its achievement, programs may consider to increase the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment from annual to 6-monthly or even higher. In a computer simulation study, we examined the potential impact of increasing the mass treatment frequency for different settings. With the ONCHOSIM model, we simulated 92,610 scenarios pertaining to different assumptions about transmission conditions, history of mass treatment, the future mass treatment strategy, and ivermectin efficacy. Simulation results were used to determine the minimum remaining program duration and number of treatment rounds required to achieve 99% probability of elimination. Doubling the frequency of treatment from yearly to 6-monthly or 3-monthly was predicted to reduce remaining program duration by about 40% or 60%, respectively. These reductions come at a cost of additional treatment rounds, especially in case of 3-monthly mass treatment. Also, aforementioned reductions are highly dependent on maintained coverage, and could be completely nullified if coverage of mass treatment were to fall in the future. In low coverage settings, increasing treatment coverage is almost just as effective as increasing treatment frequency. We conclude that 6-monthly mass treatment may only be worth the effort in situations where annual treatment is expected to take a long time to achieve elimination in spite of good treatment coverage, e.g. because of unfavorable transmission conditions or because mass treatment started recently.

Neglected tools for neglected diseases: mathematical models in economic evaluations

Despite many current interventions against neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) being highly cost-effective, new strategies are needed to reach the WHO's control and elimination goals. Here we argue for the importance of incorporating economic evaluations of new strategies in decisions regarding resource allocation. Such evaluation should ideally be conducted using dynamic transmission models that capture inherent nonlinearities in transmission and the indirect benefits ('herd effects') of interventions. A systematic review of mathematical models that have been used for economic analysis of interventions against the ten NTDs covered by the London Declaration reveals that only 16 out of 49 studies used dynamic transmission models, highlighting a fundamental--but addressable--gap in the evaluation of interventions against NTDs.

Dog-walking behaviours affect gastrointestinal parasitism in park-attending dogs

BACKGROUND

In urban parks, dogs, wildlife and humans can be sympatric, introducing the potential for inter- and intra-specific transmission of pathogens among hosts. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of zoonotic and non-zoonotic gastrointestinal parasites in dogs in Calgary city parks, and assess if dog-walking behaviour, park management, history of veterinary care, and dog demographics were associated with parasitism in dogs

METHODS

From June to September 2010, 645 questionnaires were administered to dog owners in nine city parks to determine behavioural and demographic factors, and corresponding feces from 355 dogs were collected. Dog feces were analyzed for helminth and some protozoan species using a modified sugar flotation technique and microscopic examination, a subsample was analyzed for Giardia spp. and Cryptosporidium spp. using a direct immunofluorescence assay. Descriptive and multivariate statistics were conducted to determine associations among behaviours, demographics, and parasite prevalence and infection intensities

RESULTS

Parasite prevalence was 50.2%. Giardia spp. (24.7%), Cryptosporidium spp. (14.7%), and Cystoisospora spp. (16.8%) were the most prevalent parasites. Helminth prevalence was low (4.1%). Presence of Giardia spp. was more likely in intact and young dogs; and infection with any parasite and Giardia spp. intensity were both positively associated with dogs visiting multiple parks coupled with a high frequency of park use and off-leash activity, and with being intact and young. Cryptosporidium spp. intensity was associated with being intact and young, and having visited the veterinarian within the previous year

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate a higher overall prevalence of protozoa in dogs than previously found in Calgary. The zoonotic potential of some parasites found in park-attending dogs may be of interest for public health. These results are relevant for informing park managers, the public health sector, and veterinarians.

A cellular automaton model of Schistosoma japonicum infection

Due to the life cycle complexity of Schistosoma japonicum and the characteristics of schistosomias is immuno-epidemiology, it is very challenging to give a group of certain rules and thus describe the transmission dynamics of S. japonicum with modelling approaches. Most existing epidemiological models for schistosomias is based on differential equations only track average worm burden without taking into account the individual variations, thus bear limitations on individual infection status monitoring and interpretation. In this paper, an improved stochastic model based on cellular automaton (I-SjCA, briefly) has been introduced to describe the transmission dynamics of human schistosomiasis japonica in an endemic area in China. This model reflects the process of the pathogen invasion from exposure to worm development and worm death when the infection is cleared; it also incorporates seasonality of infection, and stochastic behaviour of each individual in the study field. We show that based on the data collected from the 706 study participants, the model-predicted prevalence and intensity of S. japonicum in the 2nd year of investigation is comparable with the observation. Furthermore, we illustrate the use of model for evaluating possible control strategies for schistosomiasis in context of simulated prevalence and individual infection probability. The simulation results suggest that chemotherapy should cover no less than 85% of the S. japonicum infected population to guarantee an effective drug control program, and the best time for annual chemotherapy with praziquantel is the beginning of spring in the endemic area. Our findings indicate that I-SjCA model based on the cellular automaton can effectively simulate the transmission process. It is anticipated that our cellular automaton transmission model can serve as a tool for understanding schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and thus be conductive to build an effective control program.

A research agenda for helminth diseases of humans: modelling for control and elimination

Mathematical modelling of helminth infections has the potential to inform policy and guide research for the control and elimination of human helminthiases. However, this potential, unlike in other parasitic and infectious diseases, has yet to be realised. To place contemporary efforts in a historical context, a summary of the development of mathematical models for helminthiases is presented. These efforts are discussed according to the role that models can play in furthering our understanding of parasite population biology and transmission dynamics, and the effect on such dynamics of control interventions, as well as in enabling estimation of directly unobservable parameters, exploration of transmission breakpoints, and investigation of evolutionary outcomes of control. The Disease Reference Group on Helminth Infections (DRG4), established in 2009 by the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), was given the mandate to review helminthiases research and identify research priorities and gaps. A research and development agenda for helminthiasis modelling is proposed based on identified gaps that need to be addressed for models to become useful decision tools that can support research and control operations effectively. This agenda includes the use of models to estimate the impact of large-scale interventions on infection incidence; the design of sampling protocols for the monitoring and evaluation of integrated control programmes; the modelling of co-infections; the investigation of the dynamical relationship between infection and morbidity indicators; the improvement of analytical methods for the quantification of anthelmintic efficacy and resistance; the determination of programme endpoints; the linking of dynamical helminth models with helminth geostatistical mapping; and the investigation of the impact of climate change on human helminthiases. It is concluded that modelling should be embedded in helminth research, and in the planning, evaluation, and surveillance of interventions from the outset. Modellers should be essential members of interdisciplinary teams, propitiating a continuous dialogue with end users and stakeholders to reflect public health needs in the terrain, discuss the scope and limitations of models, and update biological assumptions and model outputs regularly. It is highlighted that to reach these goals, a collaborative framework must be developed for the collation, annotation, and sharing of databases from large-scale anthelmintic control programmes, and that helminth modellers should join efforts to tackle key questions in helminth epidemiology and control through the sharing of such databases, and by using diverse, yet complementary, modelling approaches.

Density-dependent mortality of the human host in onchocerciasis: relationships between microfilarial load and excess mortality

Background

The parasite Onchocerca volvulus has, until recently, been regarded as the cause of a chronic yet non-fatal condition. Recent analyses, however, have indicated that in addition to blindness, the parasite can also be directly associated with human mortality. Such analyses also suggested that the relationship between microfilarial load and excess mortality might be non-linear. Determining the functional form of such relationship would contribute to quantify the population impact of mass microfilaricidal treatment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data from the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) collected from 1974 through 2001 were used to determine functional relationships between microfilarial load and excess mortality of the human host. The goodness-of-fit of three candidate functional forms (a (log-) linear model and two saturating functions) were explored and a saturating (log-) sigmoid function was deemed to be statistically the best fit. The excess mortality associated with microfilarial load was also found to be greater in younger hosts. The attributable mortality risk due to onchocerciasis was estimated to be 5.9%.

Conclusions/Significance

Incorporation of this non-linear functional relationship between microfilarial load and excess mortality into mathematical models for the transmission and control of onchocerciasis will have important implications for our understanding of the population biology of O. volvulus, its impact on human populations, the global burden of disease due to onchocerciasis, and the projected benefits of control programmes in both human and economic terms.

Human onchocerciasis (River Blindness) is a parasitic disease leading to visual impairment including blindness. Blindness may lead to premature death, but infection with the parasite itself (Onchocerca volvulus) may also cause excess mortality in sighted individuals. The excess risk of mortality may not be directly (linearly) proportional to the intensity of infection (a measure of how many parasites an individual harbours). We analyze cohort data from the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa, collected between 1974 and 2001, by fitting a suite of quantitative models (including a ‘null’ model of no relationship between infection intensity and mortality, a (log-) linear function, and two plateauing curves), and choosing the one that is the most statistically adequate. The risk of human mortality initially increases with parasite density but saturates at high densities (following an S-shape curve), and such risk is greater in younger individuals for a given infection intensity. Our results have important repercussions for programmes aiming to control onchocerciasis (in terms of how the benefits of the programme are calculated), for measuring the burden of disease and mortality caused by the infection, and for a better understanding of the processes that govern the density of parasite populations among human hosts.

Assessment and monitoring of onchocerciasis in Latin America

Onchocerciasis has historically been one of the leading causes of infectious blindness worldwide. It is endemic to tropical regions both in Africa and Latin America and in the Yemen. In Latin America, it is found in 13 foci located in 6 different countries. The epidemiologically most important focus of onchocerciasis in the Americas is located in a region spanning the border between Guatemala and Mexico. However, the Amazonian focus straddling the border of Venezuela and Brazil is larger in overall area because the Yanomami populations are scattered over a very large geographical region. Onchocerciasis is caused by infection with the filarial parasite Onchocerca volvulus. The infection is spread through the bites of an insect vector, black flies of the genus Simulium. In Africa, the major vectors are members of the S. damnosum complex, while numerous species serve as vectors of the parasite in Latin America. Latin America has had a long history of attempts to control onchocerciasis, stretching back almost 100 years. The earliest programmes used a strategy of surgical removal of the adult parasites from affected individuals. However, because many of the adult parasites lodge in undetectable and inaccessible areas of the body, the overall effect of this strategy on the prevalence of infection was relatively minor. In 1988, a new drug, ivermectin, was introduced that effectively killed the larval stage (microfilaria) of the parasite in infected humans. As the microfilaria is both the stage that is transmitted by the vector fly and the cause of most of the pathologies associated with the infection, ivermectin opened up a new strategy for the control of onchocerciasis. Concurrent with the use of ivermectin for the treatment of onchocerciasis, a number of sensitive new diagnostic tools were developed (both serological and nucleic acid based) that provided the efficiency, sensitivity and specificity necessary to monitor the decline and eventual elimination of onchocerciasis as a result of successful control. As a result of these advances, a strategy for the elimination of onchocerciasis was developed, based upon mass distribution of ivermectin to afflicted communities for periods lasting long enough to ensure that the parasite population was placed on the road to local elimination. This strategy has been applied for the past decade to the foci in Latin America by a programme overseen by the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program for the Americas (OEPA). The efforts spearheaded by OEPA have been very successful, eliminating ocular disease caused by O. volvulus, and eliminating and interrupting transmission of the parasite in 8 of the 13 foci in the region. As onchocerciasis approaches elimination in Latin America, several questions still need to be addressed. These include defining an acceptable upper limit for transmission in areas in which transmission is thought to have been suppressed (e.g. what is the maximum value for the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for transmission rates in areas where transmission is no longer detectable), how to develop strategies for conducting surveillance for recrudescence of infection in areas in which transmission is thought to be interrupted and how to address the problem in areas where the mass distribution of ivermectin seems to be unable to completely eliminate the infection.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions

Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

Population biology of malaria within the mosquito: density-dependent processes and potential implications for transmission-blocking interventions

Background

The combined effects of multiple density-dependent, regulatory processes may have an important impact on the growth and stability of a population. In a malaria model system, it has been shown that the progression of Plasmodium berghei through Anopheles stephensi and the survival of the mosquito both depend non-linearly on parasite density. These processes regulating the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito may influence the success of transmission-blocking interventions (TBIs) currently under development.

Methods

An individual-based stochastic mathematical model is used to investigate the combined impact of these multiple regulatory processes and examine how TBIs, which target different parasite life-stages within the mosquito, may influence overall parasite transmission.

Results

The best parasite molecular targets will vary between different epidemiological settings. Interventions that reduce ookinete density beneath a threshold level are likely to have auxiliary benefits, as transmission would be further reduced by density-dependent processes that restrict sporogonic development at low parasite densities. TBIs which reduce parasite density but fail to clear the parasite could cause a modest increase in transmission by increasing the number of infectious bites made by a mosquito during its lifetime whilst failing to sufficiently reduce its infectivity. Interventions with a higher variance in efficacy will therefore tend to cause a greater reduction in overall transmission than a TBI with a more uniform effectiveness. Care should be taken when interpreting these results as parasite intensity values in natural parasite-vector combinations of human malaria are likely to be significantly lower than those in this model system.

Conclusions

A greater understanding of the development of the malaria parasite within the mosquito is required to fully evaluate the impact of TBIs. If parasite-induced vector mortality influenced the population dynamics of Plasmodium species infecting humans in malaria endemic regions, it would be important to quantify the variability and duration of TBI efficacy to ensure that community benefits of control measures are not overestimated.

Modelling stochastic transmission processes in helminth infections

The number of helminths within a host can only increase by the host encountering additional infectious stages, so it is important to consider not only whether a host is infected, but also the severity of its infection. Stochastic models consider explicitly the number of parasites within the host and treat infection, death and other demographic events as random processes. I discuss stochastic helminth population models of increasing degrees of complexity, starting with the infection dynamics within a single host and finishing with the full parasite lifecycle among a population of hosts. I demonstrate the mathematical techniques that can help to analyse these models and discuss the insights into parasite population biology that these methods can bring.

Onchocerca-Simulium interactions and the population and evolutionary biology of Onchocerca volvulus

Parasite-vector interactions shape the population dynamics of vector-borne infections and contribute to observed epidemiological patterns. Also, parasites and their vectors may co-evolve, giving rise to locally adapted combinations or complexes with the potential to stabilise the infection. Here, we focus on Onchocerca-Simulium interactions with particular reference to the transmission dynamics of human onchocerciasis. A wide range of simuliid species may act as vectors of Onchocerca volvulus, each exerting their own influence over the local epidemiology and the feasibility of controlling/eliminating the infection. Firstly, current understanding of the processes involved in parasite acquisition by, and development within, different Simulium species in West Africa and Latin America will be reviewed. A description of how Onchocerca and Simulium exert reciprocal effects on each other's survival at various stages of the parasite's life cycle within the blackfly, and may have adapted to minimise deleterious effects on fitness and maximise transmission will be given. Second, we describe the interactions in terms of resultant (positive and negative) density-dependent processes that regulate parasite abundance, and discuss their incorporation into mathematical models that provide useful qualitative insight regarding transmission breakpoints. Finally, we examine the interactions' influence upon the evolution of anthelmintic resistance, and conclude that local adaptation of Onchocerca-Simulium complexes will influence the feasibility of eliminating the parasite reservoir in different foci.

Density-dependent effects on the weight of female Ascaris lumbricoides infections of humans and its impact on patterns of egg production

BACKGROUND

Ascaris lumbricoides exhibits density-dependent egg production, a process which has a marked impact on both the transmission dynamics and the stability of the parasite population. Evidence suggests that the egg production of female Ascaris is also associated with the size of the worm. If worm size is mediated by density-dependent processes then the size of female worms may have a causal impact upon patterns of Ascaris egg production.

RESULTS

We analyse data collected from a cohort of human hosts, and demonstrate that the per host mean weight (a proxy for size) of female Ascaris is dependent on the number of infecting females (worm burden) following a pattern of initial facilitation followed by limitation. Applying a negative binomial (NB) generalized linear model (GLM) and a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model we confirm that the per host female mean weight is significantly associated with per host egg production. Despite these associations, the mean weight of female Ascaris has little causal impact on patterns of density-dependent egg output. The ZINB model is able to account for the disproportionately large number of zero egg counts within the data and is shown to be a consistently better fit than the NB model. The probability of observing a zero egg count is demonstrated as being negatively associated with both female worm burden and female mean weight.

CONCLUSION

The mean weight of female Ascaris is statistically significantly associated with egg output, and follows a consistent pattern of facilitation preceding limitation with increasing female worm burden. Despite these relationships, incorporation of female Ascaris mean weight into models of egg output has little effect on patterns of density dependence. The ZINB model is a superior fit to the data than the NB model and provides additional information regarding the mechanisms that result in a zero egg count. The ZINB model is shown to be a useful tool for the analysis of individual-based egg output data.

Modelling heterogeneity and the impact of chemotherapy and vaccination against human hookworm

There is a growing emphasis on the development of vaccines against helminths (worms), and mathematical models provide a useful tool to assess the impact of new vaccines under a range of scenarios. The present study describes a stochastic individual-based model to assess the relative impact of chemotherapy and vaccination against human hookworm infection and investigates the implications of potential correlations between risk of infection and vaccine efficacy. Vaccination is simulated as a reduction in susceptibility to infection and the model includes population heterogeneities and dynamical waning of protection. To help identify appropriate measures of vaccine impact, we present a novel framework to quantify the vaccine impact on the infection-associated morbidity and introduce a measure of symmetry to study the correspondence between reduction in intensity and reduction in morbidity. Our modelling shows that, in high-transmission settings, the greatest impact of vaccination will be attained when vaccine efficacy is the greatest among individuals harbouring the heaviest worm burdens, and that the decline of morbidity primarily depends on the level of protection attained in the most at risk 8-12% of the population. We also demonstrate that if risk of infection and vaccine protection are correlated, there is not always a direct correspondence between the reduction in worm burden and in morbidity, with the precise relationship varying according to transmission setting.

The potential impact of density dependent fecundity on the use of the faecal egg count reduction test for detecting drug resistance in human hookworms

Current efforts to control human soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections involve the periodic mass treatment of people, particularly children, in all endemic areas, using benzimidazole and imidothiazole drugs. Given the fact that high levels of resistance have developed to these same drugs in roundworms of livestock, there is a need to monitor drug efficacy in human STHs. The faecal egg count reduction test (FECRT), in which faecal egg output is measured pre- and post-drug treatment, is presently under examination by WHO as a means of detecting the emergence of resistance. We have examined the potential impact of density dependent fecundity on FECRT data. Recent evidence with the canine hookworm indicates that the density dependent egg production phenomenon shows dynamic properties in response to drug treatment. This will impact on measurements of drug efficacy, and hence drug resistance. It is likely that the female worms that survive a FECRT drug treatment in some human cases will respond to the relaxation of density dependent constraints on egg production by increasing their egg output significantly compared to their pre-treatment levels. These cases will therefore underestimate drug efficacy in the FECRT. The degree of underestimation will depend on the ability of the worms within particular hosts to increase their egg output, which will in turn depend on the extent to which their egg output is constrained prior to the drug treatment. As worms within different human cases will likely be present at quite different densities prior to a proposed FECRT, there is potential for the effects of this phenomenon on drug efficacy measurements to vary considerably within any group of potential FECRT candidates. Measurement of relative drug efficacy may be improved by attempting to ensure a consistent degree of underestimation in groups of people involved in separate FECRTs. This may be partly achieved by omission of cases with the heaviest infections from a FECRT, as these cases may have the greatest potential to increase their egg output upon removal of density dependent constraints. The potential impact of worm reproductive biology on the utility of the FECRT as a resistance detection tool highlights the need to develop new drug resistance monitoring methods which examine either direct drug effects on isolated worms with in vitro phenotypic assays, or changes in worm genotypes.

Current efforts to control soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in humans in endemic countries involve the mass administration of drugs. The use of these same drugs for many years to control livestock nematodes has resulted in the emergence of significant levels of resistance. Hence, there is a need to manage the use of drugs against human STHs in order to reduce the likelihood of resistance developing. An important component of managing drug use will be an ability to detect drug resistance should it emerge. WHO and the World Bank are presently supporting initiatives to develop tools for detecting drug resistance in human STHs. The tool to be assessed in the short term is the faecal egg count reduction test (FECRT). We have examined literature on an aspect of worm reproductive biology with potential to impact significantly on the FECRT. We describe the potential effects that density dependent egg production by female hookworms may have on interpretation of FECRT data. This study highlights a potential weakness in reliance on the FECRT for assessment of drug resistance in human hookworms, hence emphasising the need to develop more advanced worm bioassay and molecular methods.

Vector competence of Simulium oyapockense s.l. and S. incrustatum for Onchocerca volvulus: Implications for ivermectin-based control in the Amazonian focus of human onchocerciasis, a multi-vector-host system

Although it is now well established that in the Amazonian onchocerciasis focus, straddling between Venezuela and Brazil, the main vectors in the highland (hyperendemic) and lowland (hypoendemic) areas, are respectively Simulium guianense sensu lato Wise and S. oyapockense s.l. Floch and Abonnenc, investigation of the vectorial role of a third anthropophagic species, Simulium incrustatum Lutz has remained inconclusive. Here we compare the vector competence of S. incrustatum with that of S. oyapockense s.l. by conducting, in the Venezuelan part of the focus, a series of feeding experiments designed to analyze their relative: (a) microfilarial intakes when fed upon the same skin load; (b) proportions of microfilariae (mf) surviving damage inflicted by the cibarial armature (present in both species); and (c) infective (L3) larval outputs. Although the ability of S. oyapockense s.l. to ingest mf, for a given microfilaridermia, was markedly higher than that of S. incrustatum, the (density-dependent) proportions of those ingested mf that were damaged by the armature were also consistently higher, with the resulting output of L3 larvae being significantly lower in S. oyapockense s.l. than in S. incrustatum. These results indicate that S. incrustatum plays a more important role in onchocerciasis transmission in the Amazonian focus than previously realized. We discuss the implications of our findings for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis with mass administration of ivermectin in this focus, where the three main anthropophagic species often co-occur.

Density-dependent effects on hatching success of the olive ridley turtle, Lepidochelys olivacea

Historically, the olive ridley arribada at Playa Nancite, Costa Rica, was one of the largest olive ridley arribadas in the eastern Pacific with 70,000 nesting females in a year. Recently the Nancite arribada drastically declined. We hypothesized that the population decline at Playa Nancite could have been due to low hatching success as a result of the high density of nests on the beach, such that recruitment to the population was insufficient to balance losses. To test this hypothesis, we examined density-dependent effects on hatching success and their underlying mechanisms by experimentally manipulating nest densities in experimental plots on the nesting beach. We set up four nest-density treatments in five experimental blocks. We measured effects of density on hatching success, CO(2) and O(2) concentrations and temperature both within nests and in sand adjacent to nests frequently during incubation. Experimental nest densities affected hatching success with the highest density having the lowest hatching success. Higher nest density led to lower O(2) levels and higher CO(2) levels in the nest with greater changes in the latter part of the incubation. Highest temperatures occurred in high-density areas. Temperatures were lower in sand surrounding the nest than in the nest. Effects of density on temperature, CO(2) and O(2) were confirmed at a naturally high-density nesting beach, Playa La Flor, Nicaragua. Long-term failure in production of hatchlings due to historic high densities may have contributed to the decline of arribadas on Playa Nancite. Thus, density-dependent population control would have operated at the embryonic life stage in this population of olive ridley turtles.

Density dependence and the spread of anthelmintic resistance

Variation in the strength of selection pressures acting upon different subpopulations may cause density-dependent regulatory processes to act differentially on particular genotypes and may influence the rate of selection of adaptive traits. Using host-helminth parasite systems as examples, we investigate the impact of different positive and negative density dependence on the potential spread of anthelmintic resistance. Following chemotherapy, the negative density-dependent processes restricting parasite population growth will be relaxed, increasing the genetic contribution of resistant parasites to the next generation. Simple deterministic models of directly transmitted nematodes that merge population dynamics and genetics show that the frequency of drug-resistant alleles may increase faster in species whose population size is down-regulated by density-dependent parasite fecundity than in species with density-dependent establishment or parasite mortality. A genetically structured population dynamics model of an indirectly transmitted nematode is used to highlight how population regulation will influence the resistance allele frequency in different parasite lifestages. Results indicate that surveys aimed at monitoring the evolution of drug resistance should consider carefully which life stage to sample, and the time following treatment samples should be collected. Anthelmintic resistance offers a good opportunity to apply fundamental evolutionary and ecological principles to the management of a potentially crucial public health problem.

Vector competence for Onchocerca volvulus in the Simulium (Notolepria) exiguum complex: cytoforms or density-dependence?

Although Simulium exiguum Roubaud s.l. is present in all South American onchocerciasis foci, it is a significant vector only in Colombia and Ecuador. This variable vectorial role has been attributed to sibling forms that differ in their ability to allow Onchocerca volvulus larval development and their preferred bloodmeal hosts. Here we evaluate the relationship between parasite availability in human skin and infective larval output measured as (a) number of L3 larvae and (b) proportion of surviving flies with L3s in the Cayapa form of S. exiguum s.l. from Ecuador, taking into account the variation in counts of microfilariae (mf) from 6skin snips/patient. Comparisons with other cytoforms (Aguarico, Bucay and Quevedo, absent in the main Ecuadorean onchocerciasis foci) are made to suggest the relative roles of intrinsic susceptibility or co-adaptation versus density-dependent parasite uptake. A nonlinear (limitation) relationship, characterised by an initial rapid increase in infective larvae with increasing mf skin density was confirmed for the Cayapa cytoform. The proportion of infective Cayapa flies increased and saturated rapidly (reaching 80% for >/= 20mf/mg skin). After adjusting for density dependence, non-Cayapa cytoforms exhibited significantly lower L3 loads and proportions of infective flies for a given mf skin density than Cayapa flies, indicating that the susceptibility of those cytoforms is intrinsically lower than that of the Cayapa cytoform and that the differences observed are not due to density-dependent effects.