When Space and Time Matter in Environmental Injustice: A Bayesian Analysis of the Association between Socio-economic Disadvantage and Air Pollution in Greater Mexico City

Environmental injustice refers to the unequal burden of pollutants on groups with lower socioeconomic status. An increasing number of studies have identified associations between high levels of pollution and socioeconomic disadvantage. However, few studies have controlled adequately for spatio-temporal variations in pollution. This study uses a Bayesian approach to explore the association between socioeconomic disadvantage and pollution in Mexico City Metropolitan Area. We quantify the association of socioeconomic disadvantage with PM10 and ozone and evaluate the impact of accounting for spatio-temporal structure of the pollution data. We find a significant positive association between socio-economic disadvantage and pollution for levels of PM10, but not ozone. The inclusion of the spatio-temporal element in the modeling results in improved weaker estimates of this association but this does not alter results substantially. These findings confirm the robustness of previous studies that found signs of environmental injustice where spatio-temporal variations have not been explicitly considered, confirming that targeted policies to reduce pollution in socio-economically disadvantaged areas are required.

Functional measures as potential indicators of down-the-drain chemical stress in freshwater ecological risk assessment

Conventional ecological risk assessment (ERA) predominately evaluates the impact of individual chemical stressors on a limited range of taxa, which are assumed to act as proxies to predict impacts on freshwater ecosystem function. However, it is recognized that this approach has limited ecological relevance. We reviewed the published literature to identify measures that are potential functional indicators of down-the-drain chemical stress, as an approach to building more ecological relevance into ERA. We found wide variation in the use of the term "ecosystem function," and concluded it is important to distinguish between measures of processes and measures of the capacity for processes (i.e., species' functional traits). Here, we present a classification of potential functional indicators and suggest that including indicators more directly connected with processes will improve the detection of impacts on ecosystem functioning. The rate of leaf litter breakdown, oxygen production, carbon dioxide consumption, and biomass production have great potential to be used as functional indicators. However, the limited supporting evidence means that further study is needed before these measures can be fully implemented and interpreted within an ERA and regulatory context. Sensitivity to chemical stress is likely to vary among functional indicators depending on the stressor and ecosystem context. Therefore, we recommend that ERA incorporates a variety of indicators relevant to each aspect of the function of interest, such as a direct measure of a process (e.g., rate of leaf litter breakdown) and a capacity for a process (e.g., functional composition of macroinvertebrates), alongside structural indicators (e.g., taxonomic diversity of macroinvertebrates). Overall, we believe that the consideration of functional indicators can add value to ERA by providing greater ecological relevance, particularly in relation to indirect effects, functional compensation (Box 1), interactions of multiple stressors, and the importance of ecosystem context. Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1135-1147. © 2022 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Coping and Adaptation in Response to Environmental and Climatic Stressors in Caribbean Coastal Communities

Cumulative and synergistic impacts from environmental pressures, particularly in low-lying tropical coastal regions, present challenges for the governance of ecosystems, which provide natural resource-based livelihoods for communities. Here, we seek to understand the relationship between responses to the impacts of El Niño and La Niña events and the vulnerability of mangrove-dependent communities in the Caribbean region of Colombia. Using two case study sites, we show how communities are impacted by, and undertake reactive short-term responses to, El Niño and La Niña events, and how such responses can affect their adaptive capacity to progressive environmental deterioration. We show that certain coping measures to climate variability currently deliver maladaptive outcomes, resulting in circumstances that could contribute to system 'lock-in' and engender undesirable ecological states, exacerbating future livelihood vulnerabilities. We highlight the significant role of social barriers on vulnerabilities within the region, including perceptions of state abandonment, mistrust and conflicts with authorities. Opportunities to reduce vulnerability include enhancing the communities' capacity to adopt more positive and preventative responses based on demonstrable experiential learning capacity. However, these will require close cooperation between formal and informal organisations at different levels, and the development of shared coherent adaptation strategies to manage the complexity of multiple interacting environmental and climatic pressures.

Generative models of network dynamics provide insight into the effects of trade on endemic livestock disease

We develop and apply analytically tractable generative models of livestock movements at national scale. These go beyond current models through mechanistic modelling of heterogeneous trade partnership network dynamics and the trade events that occur on them. Linking resulting animal movements to disease transmission between farms yields analytical expressions for the basic reproduction number R ₀. We show how these novel modelling tools enable systems approaches to disease control, using R ₀ to explore impacts of changes in trading practices on between-farm prevalence levels. Using the Scottish cattle trade network as a case study, we show our approach captures critical complexities of real-world trade networks at the national scale for a broad range of endemic diseases. Changes in trading patterns that minimize disruption to business by maintaining in-flow of animals for each individual farm reduce R ₀, with the largest reductions for diseases that are most challenging to eradicate. Incentivizing high-risk farms to adopt such changes exploits 'scale-free' properties of the system and is likely to be particularly effective in reducing national livestock disease burden and incursion risk. Encouragingly, gains made by such targeted modification of trade practices scale much more favourably than comparably targeted improvements to more commonly adopted farm-level biosecurity.

Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Mental Health: A Narrative Synthesis and Meta-Analysis for the UK

Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity as a consequence of climate change and pose a significant threat to population mental health. This is the case even in temperate regions such as the United Kingdom (UK) where flooding and heat waves are forecast to become more common. We conducted a systematic review to quantify the prevalence and describe the causes of common mental health problems in populations exposed to extreme weather events in the UK. We searched Web of Science, EMBASE and PsycINFO for studies that measured the prevalence of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in populations exposed to extreme weather events in the UK, published up to 12 December 2019. We included 17 studies, four of which were included in meta-analyses to determine the point prevalence of common mental health problems in the period within 12 months following extreme weather events. The point prevalence was 19.8% for anxiety (k = 4; n = 1458; 95% CI 7.42 to 32.15), 21.35% for depression (k = 4; n = 1458; 95% CI 9.04 to 33.65) and 30.36% for PTSD (k = 4; n = 1359; 95% CI 11.68 to 49.05). Key factors that affected mental ill health in people exposed to flooding were water depth and absence of flood warnings. Displacement from home underscored the narratives associated with people's perceptions of the impact of flooding. The high prevalence of common mental health problems suggests that the prevention of mental ill health in populations at risk or exposed to extreme weather events should be a UK public health priority.

Mycobacterium bovis genomics reveals transmission of infection between cattle and deer in Ireland

Control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, in the Republic of Ireland costs €84 million each year. Badgers are recognized as being a wildlife source for M. bovis infection of cattle. Deer are thought to act as spillover hosts for infection; however, population density is recognized as an important driver in shifting their epidemiological role, and deer populations across the country have been increasing in density and range. County Wicklow represents one specific area in the Republic of Ireland with a high density of deer that has had consistently high bTB prevalence for over a decade, despite control operations in both cattle and badgers. Our research used whole-genome sequencing of M. bovis sourced from infected cattle, deer and badgers in County Wicklow to evaluate whether the epidemiological role of deer could have shifted from spillover host to source. Our analyses reveal that cattle and deer share highly similar M. bovis strains, suggesting that transmission between these species is occurring in the area. In addition, the high level of diversity observed in the sampled deer population suggests deer may be acting as a source of infection for local cattle populations. These findings have important implications for the control and ultimate eradication of bTB in Ireland.

Repurposing NGO data for better research outcomes: a scoping review of the use and secondary analysis of NGO data in health policy and systems research

Background

Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) collect and generate vast amounts of potentially rich data, most of which are not used for research purposes. Secondary analysis of NGO data (their use and analysis in a study for which they were not originally collected) presents an important but largely unrealised opportunity to provide new research insights in critical areas, including the evaluation of health policy and programmes.

Methods

A scoping review of the published literature was performed to identify the extent to which secondary analysis of NGO data has been used in health policy and systems research (HPSR). A tiered analytical approach provided a comprehensive overview and descriptive analyses of the studies that (1) used data produced or collected by or about NGOs; (2) performed secondary analysis of the NGO data (beyond the use of an NGO report as a supporting reference); and (3) analysed NGO-collected clinical data.

Results

Of the 156 studies that performed secondary analysis of NGO-produced or collected data, 64% (n = 100) used NGO-produced reports (mostly to a limited extent, as a contextual reference or to critique NGO activities) and 8% (n = 13) analysed NGO-collected clinical data. Of these studies, 55% (n = 86) investigated service delivery research topics and 48% (n = 51) were undertaken in developing countries and 17% (n = 27) in both developing and developed countries. NGOs were authors or co-authors of 26% of the studies. NGO-collected clinical data enabled HPSR within marginalised groups (e.g. migrants, people in conflict-affected areas), albeit with some limitations such as inconsistent and missing data.

Conclusion

We found evidence that NGO-collected and produced data are most commonly perceived as a source of supporting evidence for HPSR and not as primary source data. However, these data can facilitate research in under-researched marginalised groups and in contexts that are hard to reach by academics such as conflict-affected areas. NGO–academic collaboration could help address issues of NGO data quality to facilitate their more widespread use in research. The use of NGO data use could enable relevant and timely research in the areas of programme evaluation and health policy and advocacy to improve health and reduce health inequalities, especially in marginalised groups and developing countries.

High interindividual variability in habitat selection and functional habitat relationships in European nightjars over a period of habitat change

An animal's choice of foraging habitat reflects its response to environmental cues and is likely to vary among individuals in a population. Analyzing the magnitude of individual habitat selection can indicate how resilient populations may be to anthropogenic habitat change, where individually varying, broadly generalist populations have the potential to adjust their behavior. We collected GPS point data from 39 European nightjars (Caprimulgus europaeus) at a UK breeding site where restoration measures have altered large areas of habitat between breeding seasons. We calculated individual habitat selection over four breeding seasons to observe changes that might align with change in habitat. We also analyzed change in home range size in line with change in habitat availability, to examine functional relationships that can represent trade-offs made by the birds related to performance of the habitat. Individual explained more of the variation in population habitat selection than year for most habitat types. Individuals differed in the magnitude of their selection for different habitat types, which created a generalist population composed of both generalist and specialist individuals. Selection also changed over time but only significantly for scrub habitat (60% decrease in selection over 4 years). Across the population, individual home range size was 2% smaller where availability of cleared habitat within the home range was greater, but size increased by 2% where the amount of open water was higher, indicating the presence of trade-offs related to habitat availability. These results highlight that using individual resource selection and specialization measures, in conjunction with functional responses to change, can lead to better understanding of the needs of a population. Pooling specialist and generalist individuals for analysis could hide divergent responses to change and consequently obscure information that could be important in developing effective conservation strategies.

When to kill a cull: factors affecting the success of culling wildlife for disease control

Culling wildlife to control disease can lead to both decreases and increases in disease levels, with apparently conflicting responses observed, even for the same wildlife-disease system. There is therefore a pressing need to understand how culling design and implementation influence culling's potential to achieve disease control. We address this gap in understanding using a spatial metapopulation model representing wildlife living in distinct groups with density-dependent dispersal and framed on the badger-bovine tuberculosis (bTB) system. We show that if population reduction is too low, or too few groups are targeted, a 'perturbation effect' is observed, whereby culling leads to increased movement and disease spread. We also demonstrate the importance of culling across appropriate time scales, with otherwise successful control strategies leading to increased disease if they are not implemented for long enough. These results potentially explain a number of observations of the dynamics of both successful and unsuccessful attempts to control TB in badgers including the Randomized Badger Culling Trial in the UK, and we highlight their policy implications. Additionally, for parametrizations reflecting a broad range of wildlife-disease systems, we characterize 'Goldilocks zones', where, for a restricted combination of culling intensity, coverage and duration, the disease can be reduced without driving hosts to extinction.

The future of private rhino ownership in South Africa

Sustained poaching over the past decade has led to significant loss of black (Diceros bicornis) and southern white (Ceratotherium simum simum) rhinoceroses across South Africa. Whereas much research has focussed on the heavily targeted state-owned populations, there is little understanding of the trends and challenges faced by rhino populations held in the private sector. Private rhino ownership has increased substantially across South Africa over the past three decades, with over 42% of the entire rhino population now in private ownership. Although total rhino numbers on private properties are still increasing, the number of properties owning rhinos is declining. This suggests a move away from traditional extensive properties to large, single-species breeding facilities, which are less valuable from a conservation perspective. The economic impact associated with increased poaching of rhinos over the past decade is the major challenge to private rhino ownership and may encourage disinvestment in rhinos. Some private rhino owners advocate for trade in rhino horn to generate the funds necessary for continued protection of their animals. However, other options to reduce disinvestment, such as local community-engagement projects, are likely to be more favourably received by the wider conservation industry.

Associations between active travel and diet: cross-sectional evidence on healthy, low-carbon behaviours from UK Biobank

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether there are associations between active travel and markers of a healthy, low-carbon (HLC) diet (increased consumption of fruit and vegetables (FV), reduced consumption of red and processed meat (RPM)).

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis of a cohort study.

SETTINGS

Population cohort of over 500 000 people recruited from 22 centres across the UK. Participants aged between 40 and 69 years were recruited between 2006 and 2010.

PARTICIPANTS

412 299 adults with complete data on travel mode use, consumption of FV and RPM, and sociodemographic covariates were included in the analysis.

EXPOSURE MEASURES

Mutually exclusive mode or mode combinations of travel (car, public transport, walking, cycling) for non-work and commuting journeys.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Consumption of FV measured as portions per day and RPM measured as frequency per week.

RESULTS

Engaging in all types of active travel was positively associated with higher FV consumption and negatively associated with more frequent RPM consumption. Cycling exclusively or in combination with walking was most strongly associated with increased dietary consumption of FV and reduced consumption of RPM for both non-work and commuting journeys. Overall, the strongest associations were between non-work cycling and FV consumption (males: adjusted OR=2.18, 95% CI 2.06 to 2.30; females: adjusted OR=2.50, 95% CI 2.31 to 2.71) and non-work cycling and RPM consumption (males: adjusted OR=0.57, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.60; females: adjusted OR=0.54, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.59). Associations were generally similar for both commuting and non-work travel, and were robust to adjustment with sociodemographic and behavioural factors.

CONCLUSIONS

There are strong associations between engaging in active travel, particularly cycling, and HLC dietary consumption, suggesting that these HLC behaviours are related. Further research is needed to better understand the drivers and dynamics between these behaviours within individuals, and whether they share common underlying causes.

Willingness to pay for policies to reduce future deaths from climate change: evidence from a British survey

OBJECTIVES

Without urgent action, climate change will put the health of future populations at risk. Policies to reduce these risks require support from today's populations; however, there are few studies assessing public support for such policies. Willingness to pay (WtP), a measure of the maximum a person is prepared to pay for a defined benefit, is widely used to assess public support for policies. We used WtP to investigate whether there is public support to reduce future health risks from climate change and if individual and contextual factors affect WtP, including perceptions of the seriousness of the impacts of climate change.

STUDY DESIGN

A cross-sectional British survey.

METHODS

Questions about people's WtP for policies to reduce future climate change-related deaths and their perceptions of the seriousness of climate change impacts were included in a British survey of adults aged 16 years and over (n=1859). We used contingent valuation, a survey-based method for eliciting WtP for outcomes like health which do not have a direct market value.

RESULTS

The majority (61%) were willing to pay to reduce future increases in climate change-related deaths in Britain. Those regarding climate change impacts as not at all serious were less willing to pay than those regarding the impacts as extremely serious (OR 0.04, 95% CI 0.02-0.09). Income was also related to WtP; the highest-income group were twice as likely to be willing to pay as the lowest-income group (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.40-3.29).

CONCLUSIONS

There was public support for policies to address future health impacts of climate change; the level of support varied with people's perceptions of the seriousness of these impacts and their financial circumstances. Our study adds to evidence that health, including the health of future populations, is an outcome that people value and suggests that framing climate change around such values may help to accelerate action.

The trade-off between fix rate and tracking duration on estimates of home range size and habitat selection for small vertebrates

Despite advances in technology, there are still constraints on the use of some tracking devices for small species when gathering high temporal and spatial resolution data on movement and resource use. For small species, weight limits imposed on GPS loggers and the consequent impacts on battery life, restrict the volume of data that can be collected. Research on home range and habitat selection for these species should therefore incorporate a consideration of how different sampling parameters and methods may affect the structure of the data and the conclusions drawn. However, factors such as these are seldom explicitly considered. We applied two commonly-used methods of home range estimation, Movement-based Kernel Density Estimation (MKDE) and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) to investigate the influence of fix rate, tracking duration and method on home range size and habitat selection, using GPS tracking data collected at two different fix rates from a small, aerially-insectivorous bird, the European nightjar Caprimulgus europaeus. Effects of tracking parameters varied with home range estimation method. Fix rate and tracking duration most strongly explained change in MKDE and KDE home range size respectively. Total number of fixes and tracking duration had the strongest impact on habitat selection. High between- and within-individual variation strongly influenced outcomes and was most evident when exploring the effects of varying tracking duration. To reduce skew and bias in home range size estimation and especially habitat selection caused by individual variation and estimation method, we recommend tracking animals for the longest period possible even if this results in a reduced fix rate. If accurate movement properties, (e.g. trajectory length and turning angle) and biologically-representative movement occurrence ranges are more important, then a higher fix rate should be used, but priority habitats can still be identified with an infrequent sampling strategy.

Are we ready to use nature gardens to treat stress-related illnesses?

In this issue, Stigsdotter et al show that nature gardens offer similar benefits to cognitive-behavioural therapy for managing stress-related illnesses among people on sick leave. There is scope for pragmatic trials to establish the processes involved and highlight the co-benefits that nature gardens offer for health and the environment.Declaration of interestNone.

Livestock Disease Management for Trading Across Different Regulatory Regimes

The maintenance of livestock health depends on the combined actions of many different actors, both within and across different regulatory frameworks. Prior work recognised that private risk management choices have the ability to reduce the spread of infection to trading partners. We evaluate the efficiency of farmers' alternative biosecurity choices in terms of their own-benefits from unilateral strategies and quantify the impact they may have in filtering the disease externality of trade. We use bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) in England and Scotland as a case study, since this provides an example of a situation where contrasting strategies for BVD management occur between selling and purchasing farms. We use an agent-based bioeconomic model to assess the payoff dependence of farmers connected by trade but using different BVD management strategies. We compare three disease management actions: test-cull, test-cull with vaccination and vaccination alone. For a two-farm trading situation, all actions carried out by the selling farm provide substantial benefits to the purchasing farm in terms of disease avoided, with the greatest benefit resulting from test-culling with vaccination on the selling farm. Likewise, unilateral disease strategies by purchasers can be effective in reducing disease risks created through trade. We conclude that regulation needs to balance the trade-off between private gains from those bearing the disease management costs and the positive spillover effects on others.

Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review

The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies) or Asia (seven studies), whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies), closely followed by flooding (six studies). No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events.

Social determinants and lifestyles: integrating environmental and public health perspectives

OBJECTIVE

Industrialization and urbanization have been associated with an epidemiological transition, from communicable to non-communicable disease, and a geological transition that is moving the planet beyond the stable Holocene epoch in which human societies have prospered. The lifestyles of high-income countries are major drivers of these twin processes. Our objective is to highlight the common causes of chronic disease and environmental change and, thereby, contribute to shared perspectives across public health and the environment.

STUDY DESIGN

Integrative reviews focused on social determinants and lifestyles as two 'bridging' concepts between the fields of public health and environmental sustainability.

METHODS

We drew on established frameworks to consider the position of the natural environment within social determinants of health (SDH) frameworks and the position of social determinants within environmental frameworks. We drew on evidence on lifestyle factors central to both public health and environmental change (mobility- and diet-related factors). We investigated how public health's focus on individual behaviour can be enriched by environmental perspectives that give attention to household consumption practices.

RESULTS

While SDH frameworks can incorporate the biophysical environment, their causal structure positions it as a determinant and one largely separate from the social factors that shape it. Environmental frameworks are more likely to represent the environment and its ecosystems as socially determined. A few frameworks also include human health as an outcome, providing the basis for a combined public health/environmental sustainability framework. Environmental analyses of household impacts broaden public health's concern with individual risk behaviours, pointing to the more damaging lifestyles of high-income households.

CONCLUSION

The conditions for health are being undermined by rapid environmental change. There is scope for frameworks reaching across public health and environmental sustainability and a shared evidence base that captures the health- and environmentally damaging impacts of high-consumption lifestyles.

Using Combined Diagnostic Test Results to Hindcast Trends of Infection from Cross-Sectional Data

Infectious disease surveillance is key to limiting the consequences from infectious pathogens and maintaining animal and public health. Following the detection of a disease outbreak, a response in proportion to the severity of the outbreak is required. It is thus critical to obtain accurate information concerning the origin of the outbreak and its forward trajectory. However, there is often a lack of situational awareness that may lead to over- or under-reaction. There is a widening range of tests available for detecting pathogens, with typically different temporal characteristics, e.g. in terms of when peak test response occurs relative to time of exposure. We have developed a statistical framework that combines response level data from multiple diagnostic tests and is able to 'hindcast' (infer the historical trend of) an infectious disease epidemic. Assuming diagnostic test data from a cross-sectional sample of individuals infected with a pathogen during an outbreak, we use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate time of exposure, and the overall epidemic trend in the population prior to the time of sampling. We evaluate the performance of this statistical framework on simulated data from epidemic trend curves and show that we can recover the parameter values of those trends. We also apply the framework to epidemic trend curves taken from two historical outbreaks: a bluetongue outbreak in cattle, and a whooping cough outbreak in humans. Together, these results show that hindcasting can estimate the time since infection for individuals and provide accurate estimates of epidemic trends, and can be used to distinguish whether an outbreak is increasing or past its peak. We conclude that if temporal characteristics of diagnostics are known, it is possible to recover epidemic trends of both human and animal pathogens from cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time.

Effects of extreme natural events on the provision of ecosystem services in a mountain environment: The importance of trail design in delivering system resilience and ecosystem service co-benefits

A continued supply of ecosystem services (ES) from a system depends on the resilience of that system to withstand shocks and perturbations. In many parts of the world, climate change is leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather events, potentially influencing ES provision. Our study of the effects of an intense rainfall event in Gorce National Park, Poland, shows: (1) the intense rainfall event impacted heavily on the supply of ES by limiting potential recreation opportunities and reducing erosion prevention; (2) these negative impacts were not only restricted to the period of the extreme event but persisted for up to several years, depending on the pre-event trail conditions and post-event management activities; (3) to restore the pre-event supply of ES, economic investments were required in the form of active repairs to trails, which, in Gorce National Park, were an order of magnitude higher than the costs of normal trail maintenance; and (4) when recreational trails were left to natural restoration, loss of biodiversity was observed, and recovery rates of ES (recreation opportunities and soil erosion prevention) were reduced in comparison to their pre-event state. We conclude that proper trail design and construction provides a good solution to avoid some of the negative impacts of extreme events on recreation, as well as offering co-benefits in terms of protecting biodiversity and enhancing the supply of regulating services such as erosion prevention.

Integrating Human and Ecosystem Health Through Ecosystem Services Frameworks

The pace and scale of environmental change is undermining the conditions for human health. Yet the environment and human health remain poorly integrated within research, policy and practice. The ecosystem services (ES) approach provides a way of promoting integration via the frameworks used to represent relationships between environment and society in simple visual forms. To assess this potential, we undertook a scoping review of ES frameworks and assessed how each represented seven key dimensions, including ecosystem and human health. Of the 84 ES frameworks identified, the majority did not include human health (62%) or include feedback mechanisms between ecosystems and human health (75%). While ecosystem drivers of human health are included in some ES frameworks, more comprehensive frameworks are required to drive forward research and policy on environmental change and human health.

Exotic Fish in Exotic Plantations: A Multi-Scale Approach to Understand Amphibian Occurrence in the Mediterranean Region

Globally, amphibian populations are threatened by a diverse range of factors including habitat destruction and alteration. Forestry practices have been linked with low diversity and abundance of amphibians. The effect of exotic Eucalyptus spp. plantations on amphibian communities has been studied in a number of biodiversity hotspots, but little is known of its impact in the Mediterranean region. Here, we identify the environmental factors influencing the presence of six species of amphibians (the Caudata Pleurodeles waltl, Salamandra salamandra, Lissotriton boscai, Triturus marmoratus and the anurans Pelobates cultripes and Hyla arborea/meridionalis) occupying 88 ponds. The study was conducted in a Mediterranean landscape dominated by eucalypt plantations alternated with traditional use (agricultural, montados and native forest) at three different scales: local (pond), intermediate (400 metres radius buffer) and broad (1000 metres radius buffer). Using the Akaike Information Criterion for small samples (AICc), we selected the top-ranked models for estimating the probability of occurrence of each species at each spatial scale separately and across all three spatial scales, using a combination of covariates from the different magnitudes. Models with a combination of covariates at the different spatial scales had a stronger support than those at individual scales. The presence of predatory fish in a pond had a strong effect on Caudata presence. Permanent ponds were selected by Hyla arborea/meridionalis over temporary ponds. Species occurrence was not increased by a higher density of streams, but the density of ponds impacted negatively on Lissotriton boscai. The proximity of ponds occupied by their conspecifics had a positive effect on the occurrence of Lissotriton boscai and Pleurodeles waltl. Eucalypt plantations had a negative effect on the occurrence of the newt Lissotriton boscai and anurans Hyla arborea/meridionalis, but had a positive effect on the presence of Salamandra salamandra, while no effect on any of the other species was detected. In conclusion, eucalypts had limited effects on the amphibian community at the intermediate and broad scales, but predatory fish had a major impact when considering all the scales combined. The over-riding importance of introduced fish as a negative impact suggests that forest managers should prevent new fish introductions and eradicate fish from already-occupied ponds whenever possible.

Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks

Parasitic nematodes represent one of the most pervasive and significant challenges to grazing livestock, and their intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by climate. Parasite levels and species composition have already shifted under climate change, with nematode parasite intensity frequently low in newly colonized areas, but sudden large-scale outbreaks are becoming increasingly common. These outbreaks compromise both food security and animal welfare, yet there is a paucity of predictions on how climate change will influence livestock parasites. This study aims to assess how climate change can affect parasite risk. Using a process-based approach, we determine how changes in temperature-sensitive elements of outbreaks influence parasite dynamics, to explore the potential for climate change to influence livestock helminth infections. We show that changes in temperate-sensitive parameters can result in nonlinear responses in outbreak dynamics, leading to distinct 'tipping-points' in nematode parasite burdens. Through applying two mechanistic models, of varying complexity, our approach demonstrates that these nonlinear responses are robust to the inclusion of a number of realistic processes that are present in livestock systems. Our study demonstrates that small changes in climatic conditions around critical thresholds may result in dramatic changes in parasite burdens.

Stakeholder opinions on the practicality of management interventions to control bovine tuberculosis

Livestock disease control strategies are usually determined at national and international levels, yet their successful implementation is determined by stakeholders operating at local scales. Such stakeholders may also have detailed knowledge that would contribute to the development of disease control options suited to the socio-cultural and environmental conditions where management is undertaken. The aim of this study was to evaluate stakeholders' opinions of a list of potential bovine tuberculosis (TB) management interventions for South Central Spain. This area has high TB prevalence in wildlife and livestock, so veterinarians, livestock farmers and hunters are all key stakeholders in TB management. A literature review identified possible management activities. The effectiveness of each intervention was ranked by local experts, and practicality was ranked by hunters, cattle farmers and veterinarians, using a best-worst scaling exercise as part of a questionnaire. The most effective intervention, the banning of supplemental feeding of game species, was not considered practical by stakeholders. The most effective and practical interventions were the separation of wildlife and livestock access to waterholes, testing cattle every 3 months on farms with a recent positive TB case and removing gut-piles from the land after hunting events. Although all three of these options were well supported, each stakeholder group supported different approaches more strongly, suggesting that it might be effective to promote different disease management contributions in different stakeholder communities. This integrated approach contributes to the identification of the optimum combination of management tools that can be delivered effectively.

Human–wildlife interactions in urban areas: a review of conflicts, benefits and opportunities

Wildlife has existed in urban areas since records began. However, the discipline of urban ecology is relatively new and one that is undergoing rapid growth. All wildlife in urban areas will interact with humans to some degree. With rates of urbanisation increasing globally, there is a pressing need to understand the type and nature of human–wildlife interactions within urban environments, to help manage, mitigate or even promote these interactions. Much research attention has focussed on the core topic of human–wildlife conflict. This inherent bias in the literature is probably driven by the ease with which it can be quantified and assessed. Human–wildlife conflicts in terms of disease transmission, physical attack and property damage are important topics to understand. Equally, the benefits of human–wildlife interactions are becoming increasingly recognised, despite being harder to quantify and generalise. Wildlife may contribute to the provision of ecosystem services in urban areas, and some recent work has shown how interactions with wildlife can provide a range of benefits to health and wellbeing. More research is needed to improve understanding in this area, requiring wildlife biologists to work with other disciplines including economics, public health, sociology, ethics, psychology and planning. There will always be a need to control wildlife populations in certain urban situations to reduce human–wildlife conflict. However, in an increasingly urbanised and resource-constrained world, we need to learn how to manage the risks from wildlife in new ways, and to understand how to maximise the diverse benefits that living with wildlife can bring.

Dimensions of local public attitudes towards invasive species management in protected areas

Context Invasive species management is often a source of contention; therefore, understanding human dimensions is viewed increasingly as critical for management success. Aims Using invasive Javan rusa deer (Cervus timorensis) in the Royal National Park (RNP), Sydney, as a case study, we sought to identify key dimensions of local public attitudes towards deer and associated management interventions, to identify the most divisive issues, and to assess the influence of experiences on attitudes. Methods We used a mixed-methods approach, using a questionnaire targeted at residents closest to the border of the RNP (n = 406, 30% response rate). The potential for conflict index (PCI2) was used to analyse 32 framing statements, generated through in-depth interviews with 18 key stakeholders from a range of stakeholder groups (e.g. conservation, hunting, animal welfare). We also tested for significant differences in attitudes between those who had or had not experienced deer impacts or received information on deer management. We conducted qualitative analysis of open comments to identify emergent themes and develop an attitudes framework. Key results We identified three overarching dimensions to local attitudes, namely, stakeholder, wildlife and management dimensions, each consisting of key themes and issues, forming the attitudes framework. The most divisive issues based on PCI2 analysis related to deer remaining in the park (PCI2 = 0.626), the heritage value of deer (PCI2 = 0.626), the need to remove deer (PCI2 = 0.531) and the need to kill non-natives in national parks (PCI2 = 0.535). Experience of deer–vehicle collisions and property damage were associated with significantly more negative attitudes towards deer and non-native species and more trust in ecological evidence (P < 0.001), whereas positive experience of deer had the opposite effect (P < 0.001). These experiences were also associated with attitudes towards aerial shooting (P < 0.05) but not hunting. Receiving information improved trust in ecological evidence and decreased belief in heritage value of deer (P < 0.05). Conclusions Attitudes of the local public were varied and complex; however, a mixed-methods bottom-up approach allowed us to identify specific key issues of divisiveness and make management recommendations. Implications The framework and analysis have the potential to facilitate conflict mitigation and develop invasive species management strategies that are inclusive of the local community.

Achieving positive social outcomes through participatory urban wildlife conservation projects

Context As urbanisation continues to increase on a global scale, people are becoming increasingly distanced from nature. Fewer opportunities to encounter nature mean that the benefits of engaging with nature are often not realised by urban residents. In response to this, there is a growing number of initiatives that aim to connect people with nature, for the benefit of individuals, communities and nature conservation. However, in order to maximise these benefits, it is important to understand the potential transformative effects for participants, both on a personal level and in terms of wider impacts. Aims In this study, we evaluate the social outcomes of a participatory wildlife conservation project in an urban area in north-east England, using hedgehogs as the focal species. Methods Based on an approach of community volunteers working alongside scientific researchers in an evaluation of hedgehog urban habitat use, we examine the transformative effects of this involvement at the individual and community levels via qualitative semi-structured interviews with community volunteers. Key results Participants were motivated by personal wellbeing factors such as enjoying proximity to the study species, learning and social factors. Participation in the study itself indicates a degree of motivation for engaging with a study of this sort. Nevertheless, involvement in the study was a successful vehicle for increasing participants’ engagement with nature both during the study and potentially into the future, particularly in terms of biological recording and gardening for wildlife. Conclusions Participation in a wildlife study is a positive experience for many volunteers, leading to actual and potential changes in both personal and wider social outcomes. Implications Participatory initiatives such as the one described have an important role to play in signposting and supporting volunteers to follow future environmental aspirations and maximise the personal and social benefits associated with participation. This could be enhanced by ensuring that volunteering opportunities are linked in with pre-existing community-based networks that can act as advocates for environmental and wildlife conservation.

Shared risk factors for multiple livestock diseases: a case study of bovine tuberculosis and brucellosis

Livestock diseases can result in reduced farm productivity. The bacterial diseases tuberculosis (TB) and brucellosis may share some transmission characteristics which, if managed in common, would result in more cost-effective management. Here, we identify risk factors shared between these diseases using a case-control approach and information theoretic modelling. One-hundred cattle farmers in Atlantic Spain were interviewed about farm characteristics and management practices. The risk factor shared between both diseases was intra- and inter-herd contact between cattle. Disease-specific risk factors were the presence of wildlife for TB, and cattle movement between farms for brucellosis. An integrated approach to disease management needs to consider cattle movement and farm biosecurity, reinforced by an education campaign to increase farmer awareness. This would be likely to bring benefits in reducing both diseases and improve the efficiency of any interventions.

Biosecurity and vector behaviour: evaluating the potential threat posed by anglers and canoeists as pathways for the spread of invasive non-native species and pathogens

Invasive non-native species (INNS) endanger native biodiversity and are a major economic problem. The management of pathways to prevent their introduction and establishment is a key target in the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi biodiversity targets for 2020. Freshwater environments are particularly susceptible to invasions as they are exposed to multiple introduction pathways, including non-native fish stocking and the release of boat ballast water. Since many freshwater INNS and aquatic pathogens can survive for several days in damp environments, there is potential for transport between water catchments on the equipment used by recreational anglers and canoeists. To quantify this biosecurity risk, we conducted an online questionnaire with 960 anglers and 599 canoeists to investigate their locations of activity, equipment used, and how frequently equipment was cleaned and/or dried after use. Anglers were also asked about their use and disposal of live bait. Our results indicate that 64% of anglers and 78.5% of canoeists use their equipment/boat in more than one catchment within a fortnight, the survival time of many of the INNS and pathogens considered in this study and that 12% of anglers and 50% of canoeists do so without either cleaning or drying their kit between uses. Furthermore, 8% of anglers and 28% of canoeists had used their equipment overseas without cleaning or drying it after each use which could facilitate both the introduction and secondary spread of INNS in the UK. Our results provide a baseline against which to evaluate the effectiveness of future biosecurity awareness campaigns, and identify groups to target with biosecurity awareness information. Our results also indicate that the biosecurity practices of these groups must improve to reduce the likelihood of inadvertently spreading INNS and pathogens through these activities.

Evaluating the tuberculosis hazard posed to cattle from wildlife across Europe

Tuberculosis (TB) caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) and other closely related members of the M. tuberculosis complex (MTC) infects many domestic and wildlife species across Europe. Transmission from wildlife species to cattle complicates the control of disease in cattle. By determining the level of TB hazard for which a given wildlife species is responsible, the potential for transmission to the cattle population can be evaluated. We undertook a quantitative review of TB hazard across Europe on a country-by-country basis for cattle and five widely-distributed wildlife species. Cattle posed the greatest current and potential TB hazard other cattle for the majority of countries in Europe. Wild boar posed the greatest hazard of all the wildlife species, indicating that wild boar have the greatest ability to transmit the disease to cattle. The most common host systems for TB hazards in Europe are the cattle-deer-wild boar ones. The cattle-roe deer-wild boar system is found in 10 countries, and the cattle-red deer-wild boar system is found in five countries. The dominance of cattle with respect to the hazards in many regions confirms that intensive surveillance of cattle for TB should play an important role in any TB control programme. The significant contribution that wildlife can make to the TB hazard to cattle is also of concern, given current population and distribution increases of some susceptible wildlife species, especially wild boar and deer, and the paucity of wildlife TB surveillance programmes.

Modelling parasite transmission in a grazing system: the importance of host behaviour and immunity

Parasitic helminths present one of the most pervasive challenges to grazing herbivores. Many macro-parasite transmission models focus on host physiological defence strategies, omitting more complex interactions between hosts and their environments. This work represents the first model that integrates both the behavioural and physiological elements of gastro-intestinal nematode transmission dynamics in a managed grazing system. A spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic model is developed, that incorporates both the hosts' immunological responses to parasitism, and key grazing behaviours including faecal avoidance. The results demonstrate that grazing behaviour affects both the timing and intensity of parasite outbreaks, through generating spatial heterogeneity in parasite risk and nutritional resources, and changing the timing of exposure to the parasites' free-living stages. The influence of grazing behaviour varies with the host-parasite combination, dependent on the development times of different parasite species and variations in host immune response. Our outputs include the counterintuitive finding that under certain conditions perceived parasite avoidance behaviours (faecal avoidance) can increase parasite risk, for certain host-parasite combinations. Through incorporating the two-way interaction between infection dynamics and grazing behaviour, the potential benefits of parasite-induced anorexia are also demonstrated. Hosts with phenotypic plasticity in grazing behaviour, that make grazing decisions dependent on current parasite burden, can reduce infection with minimal loss of intake over the grazing season. This paper explores how both host behaviours and immunity influence macro-parasite transmission in a spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment. The magnitude and timing of parasite outbreaks is influenced by host immunity and behaviour, and the interactions between them; the incorporation of both regulatory processes is required to fully understand transmission dynamics. Understanding of both physiological and behavioural defence strategies will aid the development of novel approaches for control.

Non-linear interactions determine the impact of sea-level rise on estuarine benthic biodiversity and ecosystem processes

Sea-level rise induced by climate change may have significant impacts on the ecosystem functions and ecosystem services provided by intertidal sediment ecosystems. Accelerated sea-level rise is expected to lead to steeper beach slopes, coarser particle sizes and increased wave exposure, with consequent impacts on intertidal ecosystems. We examined the relationships between abundance, biomass, and community metabolism of benthic fauna with beach slope, particle size and exposure, using samples across a range of conditions from three different locations in the UK, to determine the significance of sediment particle size beach slope and wave exposure in affecting benthic fauna and ecosystem function in different ecological contexts. Our results show that abundance, biomass and oxygen consumption of intertidal macrofauna and meiofauna are affected significantly by interactions among sediment particle size, beach slope and wave exposure. For macrofauna on less sloping beaches, the effect of these physical constraints is mediated by the local context, although for meiofauna and for macrofauna on intermediate and steeper beaches, the effects of physical constraints dominate. Steeper beach slopes, coarser particle sizes and increased wave exposure generally result in decreases in abundance, biomass and oxygen consumption, but these relationships are complex and non-linear. Sea-level rise is likely to lead to changes in ecosystem structure with generally negative impacts on ecosystem functions and ecosystem services. However, the impacts of sea-level rise will also be affected by local ecological context, especially for less sloping beaches.

Interdisciplinarity in biodiversity project evaluation: a work in progress

A range of methodological frameworks is available to assist decision-makers with evaluations of projects concerned with biodiversity conservation (the protection, management or restoration of biodiversity), but their uptake has been relatively limited. Some researchers suggest a lack of research interest to be one contributory factor, in particular in relation to the application of interdisciplinary approaches that integrate methods from the natural and social sciences, despite the insights that such approaches can bring. We evaluated this assertion by examining the provenance of some examples of current research in this area. Specifically, we compared two exemplar papers published in a conservation journal and one in an interdisciplinary ecological economics journal. We scored the cited references in each paper according to standard subject categories. These scores were then weighted and aggregated to give an overall quantified subject category distribution for each of the three focal papers. Comparison of the three papers revealed an expected dominance of subject categories most closely aligned with ecological science. However, there were different patterns of provenance in the three papers. One paper from the conservation journal was dominated by citations of other papers in the biodiversity conservation literature. The second paper from the conservation journal and the paper from the ecological economics journal displayed similar overall patterns of disciplinary provenance, although they diverged in disciplinary provenance for the less commonly cited disciplines, such as the social sciences. Our results suggest that research in biodiversity project evaluation may be developing along at least three, relatively distinct, pathways rather than as a genuinely interconnected research theme. This is likely to hinder progress in research but also in practical application of the techniques, in terms of reducing the likelihood of identifying inadequate, inappropriate or inefficient conservation investments. There is still considerable opportunity for further collaboration in the areas of biodiversity evaluation among researchers in a range of disciplines, including ecology, economics, statistics, forestry and wildlife management. Biodiversity conservation evaluation is a growing field, but its potential is unlikely to be fulfilled unless biodiversity researchers seek to develop a more integrated community, and particularly, to learn from researchers in other disciplines where evaluation has a longer history.

Biological and operational determinants of the effectiveness and efficiency of biodiversity conservation programs

Context Comprehensive evaluation of biodiversity conservation programs is essential for informing their development as well as the design of future programs. Such evaluations should not be limited to whether targets have been met, but should also assess the cost and efficiency of meeting targets, and any factors contributing to success or failure. Aims We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of individual-species conservation programs, and the biological and operational factors affecting these. We used the species action plans (SAPs) within the UK Biodiversity Action Plan as our case study. Methods We used cost–effectiveness analysis, cost–utility analysis and threat-reduction assessment to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of individual SAPs. Then we used statistical models to investigate the relative importance of biological and operational factors affecting cost, effectiveness and efficiency. Key results Conservation plan success was affected by both biological and operational factors. Invertebrate plans tended to be less effective, whereas vertebrate plans were less efficient. Plans for widely distributed species with longer generation times tended to be less efficient. Of the three different evaluation approaches, cost-effectiveness analysis offered the best combination of ease of data collection and accuracy of data content. Conclusions The most successful SAPs concerned species with short generation times and narrow distributions. Operationally, the most successful SAPs were concise and focussed and showed clear lines of responsibility for implementation. Implications Techniques such as cost–effectiveness analysis, cost-utility analysis and threat reduction assessment should be used to inform decisions on maximising the rate of return on conservation investments, although broader ecological implications and socio-cultural benefits should also be considered. The success of conservation plans is influenced by both biological and operational factors. Because biological factors cannot be controlled or altered, where species exhibit characteristics that are likely to make their conservation less effective or efficient, it is critical that operational factors are optimised. High-quality data are necessary to underpin prioritisation decisions, and monitoring to deliver reliable data on both the benefits and costs of conservation should form a core component of conservation programs.

Modelling the effectiveness of vaccination in controlling bovine tuberculosis in wild boar

Context Bovine tuberculosis is a persistent disease of livestock in many parts of the world, especially where wildlife hosts co-exist with livestock. In south-western Spain, despite the widespread implementation of test-and-cull strategies for cattle, the herd prevalence in areas with high wild boar densities remains stable. The control of M. bovis infection in wild boar is likely to be essential for effective disease control in livestock. Methods We developed an individual-based model to evaluate whether vaccinating wild boar piglets with oral bait would be an effective strategy to reduce the prevalence of M. bovis infection in wild boar populations. Specifically, we quantified the proportion of piglets requiring vaccination and the number of years the vaccination programme would need to continue to eradicate bTB from wild boar within 25 years, comparing ‘managed’ populations on hunting estates where supplementary food is provided, with ‘unmanaged’, free-living populations. Successful vaccination was defined as the proportion of piglets that were delivered the vaccine and were effectively protected from infection. Key results Longer-term (25-year) vaccination strategies were more successful than short-term (5-year) strategies at either eradicating M. bovis or reducing it to below 90% of its original prevalence. M. bovis infection could be eradicated under a 25-year vaccination strategy if 80% of piglets were vaccinated in a managed population or 70% of piglets were vaccinated in an unmanaged population. In contrast, 5-year strategies in which 80% of piglets were vaccinated reduced the prevalence of M. bovis only by 27% or 8% in the managed and unmanaged populations, respectively. Conclusions The results of our simulation model, coupled with the promising results of initial vaccine and oral bait-uptake trials in wild boar indicated that vaccination could be an effective strategy to reduce the prevalence of M. bovis infection in wild boar if used in conjunction with other disease-control measures. Implications The vaccination of piglets over a long-term period has the potential to make an important contribution to the eradication of M. bovis infection from wild boar reservoirs in southern Spain.

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

Background

The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model.

Results

The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone.

Conclusions

External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection.

Risk factors for bovine Tuberculosis at the national level in Great Britain

Background

The continuing expansion of high incidence areas of bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in Great Britain (GB) raises a number of questions concerning the determinants of infection at the herd level that are driving spread of the disease. Here, we develop risk factor models to quantify the importance of herd sizes, cattle imports from Ireland, history of bTB, badgers and cattle restocking in determining bTB incidence. We compare the significance of these different risk factors in high and low incidence areas (as determined by parish testing intervals).

Results

Large herds and fattening herds are more likely to breakdown in all areas. In areas with lower perceived risk (longer testing intervals), the risk of breaking down is largely determined by the number of animals that a herd buys in from high incidence areas. In contrast, in higher perceived risk areas (shorter testing intervals), the risk of breakdown is defined by the history of disease and the probability of badger occurrence. Despite differences in the management of bTB across different countries of GB (England, Wales and Scotland), we found no significant differences in bTB risk at the national level after these other factors had been taken into account.

Conclusions

This paper demonstrates that different types of farm are at risk of breakdown and that the most important risk factors vary according to bTB incidence in an area. The results suggest that significant gains in bTB control could be made by targeting herds in low incidence areas that import the greatest number of cattle from high incidence areas.

Stakeholder participation in management of invasive vertebrates

Stakeholders are increasingly involved in species conservation. We sought to understand what features of a participatory conservation program are associated with its ecological and social outcomes. We conducted a case study of the management of invasive vertebrates in Australia. Invasive vertebrates are a substantial threat to Australia's native species, and stakeholder participation in their management is often necessary for their control. First, we identified potential influences on the ecological and social outcomes of species conservation programs from the literature. We used this information to devise an interview questionnaire, which we administered to managers of 34 participatory invasive-vertebrate programs. Effects of invasive species were related to program initiator (agency or citizen), reasons for use of a participatory approach, and stakeholder composition. Program initiator was also related to the participation methods used, level of governance (i.e., governed by an agency or citizens), changes in stakeholder interactions, and changes in abundance of invasive species. Ecological and social outcomes were related to changes in abundance of invasive species and stakeholder satisfaction. We identified relations between changes in the number of participants, stakeholder satisfaction, and occurrence of conflict. Potential ways to achieve ecological and social goals include provision of governmental support (e.g., funding) to stakeholders and minimization of gaps in representation of stakeholder groups or individuals to, for example, increase conflict mitigation. Our findings provide guidance for increasing the probability of achieving ecological and social objectives in management of invasive vertebrates and may be applicable to other participatory conservation programs.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions

Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.