Rarity in mass extinctions and the future of ecosystems

Episodic body size variations of early Paleozoic trilobites associated with marine redox changes

Body size greatly affects how organisms interact with their environments. However, the macroevolutionary patterns of body size across many major metazoan clades and their constraining mechanisms remain elusive. A new high-resolution body size dataset covering 2435 species from 1091 genera of Cambrian and Ordovician trilobites reveals that body size evolution changes episodically, with three marked reductions in size. Such a pattern rules out a persistent Cope's rule dynamic. Rather, we find a strong temporal link between body size changes and major fluctuations in marine redox, supporting the hypothesis that marine oxygen levels exerted a primary control on the tempo and mode of trilobite body size evolution. These further imply a dominant role for marine oxygen in early animal evolution.

Questioning the sixth mass extinction

The idea that Earth is currently experiencing a sixth mass extinction is widespread. We critically evaluate this claim. Very few studies have tested this idea. Some studies showed that recent extinction rates are faster than fossil background rates, but extinction rates can exceed background rates outside mass extinctions. Other studies extrapolated from recent extinctions to project 75% global species loss. But these recent extinctions were mostly of island species. No cause was specified for these future extinctions, and >50% of assessed species are considered non-threatened. We find numerous other issues. Proponents of the sixth mass extinction have made invaluable contributions by highlighting recent extinctions, but these extinctions may not be equivalent to past mass extinctions or relevant to current threats.

The Micropaleoecology Framework: Evaluating Biotic Responses to Global Change Through Paleoproxy, Microfossil, and Ecological Data Integration

The microfossil record contains abundant, diverse, and well-preserved fossils spanning multiple trophic levels from primary producers to apex predators. In addition, microfossils often constitute and are preserved in high abundances alongside continuous high-resolution geochemical proxy records. These characteristics mean that microfossils can provide valuable context for understanding the modern climate and biodiversity crises by allowing for the interrogation of spatiotemporal scales well beyond what is available in neo-ecological research. Here, we formalize a research framework of "micropaleoecology," which builds on a holistic understanding of global change from the environment to ecosystem level. Location: Global. Time period: Neoproterozoic-Phanerozoic. Taxa studied: Fossilizing organisms/molecules. Our framework seeks to integrate geochemical proxy records with microfossil records and metrics, and draws on mechanistic models and systems-level statistical analyses to integrate disparate records. Using multiple proxies and mechanistic mathematical frameworks extends analysis beyond traditional correlation-based studies of paleoecological associations and builds a greater understanding of past ecosystem dynamics. The goal of micropaleoecology is to investigate how environmental changes impact the component and emergent properties of ecosystems through the integration of multi-trophic level body fossil records (primarily using microfossils, and incorporating additional macrofossil data where possible) with contemporaneous environmental (biogeochemical, geochemical, and sedimentological) records. Micropaleoecology, with its focus on integrating ecological metrics within the context of paleontological records, facilitates a deeper understanding of the response of ecosystems across time and space to better prepare for a future Earth under threat from anthropogenic climate change.

Freshwater fish and the Cretaceous/Palaeogene boundary: a critical assessment of survivorship patterns

Mass extinctions are major influences on both the phylogenetic structure of the modern biota and our ability to reconstruct broad-based patterns of evolutionary history. The most recent mass extinction is also the most famous-that which implicates a bolide impact in defining the Cretaceous/Palaeogene boundary (K/Pg). Although the biotic effects of this event receive intensive scrutiny, certain ecologically important and diverse groups remain woefully understudied. One such group is the freshwater ray-finned fishes (Actinopterygii). These fish represent 25% of modern vertebrate diversity, yet the isolated and fragmentary nature of their K/Pg fossil record limits our understanding of their diversity dynamics across this event. Here, we address this problem using diversification analysis of molecular-based phylogenies alongside a morphotype analysis of fossils recovered from a unique site in the Denver Basin of western North America that provides unprecedented K/Pg resolution. Our results reveal previously unrecognized signals of post-K/Pg diversification in freshwater clades and suggest that the change was driven by localized and sporadic patterns of extinction. Supported inferences regarding the effects of the K/Pg event on freshwater fish also inform our expectations of how freshwater faunas might recover from the current biodiversity crisis.

Spatial heterogeneity of extinction risk for flowering plants in China

Understanding the variability of extinction risk and its potential drivers across different spatial extents is crucial to revealing the underlying processes of biodiversity loss and sustainability. However, in countries with high climatic and topographic heterogeneity, studies on extinction risk are often challenged by complexities associated with extent effects. Here, using 2.02 million fine-grained distribution records and a phylogeny including 27,185 species, we find that the extinction risk of flowering plants in China is spatially concentrated in southwestern China. Our analyses suggest that spatial extinction risks of flowering plants in China may be caused by multiple drivers and are extent dependent. Vegetation structure based on proportion of growth forms is likely the dominant extinction driver at the national extent, followed by climatic and evolutionary drivers. Finer extent analyses indicate that the potential dominant extinction drivers vary across zones and vegetation regions. Despite regional heterogeneity, we detect a geographical continuity potential in extinction drivers, with variation in West China dominated by vegetation structure, South China by climate, and North China by evolution. Our findings highlight that identification of potential extent-dependent drivers of extinction risk is crucial for targeted conservation practice in countries like China.

Control of ecological networks: Abundance control or ecological regulation?

Complex ecosystems often exhibit a tipping point around which a small perturbation can lead to the loss of the basic functionality of ecosystems. It is challenging to develop a control strategy to bring ecosystems to the desired stable states. Typically, two methods are employed to restore the functionality of ecosystems: abundance control and ecological regulation. Abundance control involves directly managing species abundance through methods such as trapping, shooting, or poisoning. On the other hand, ecological regulation is a strategy for ecosystems to self-regulate through environment improvement. To enhance the effectiveness of ecosystem recovery, we propose adaptive regulation by combining the two control strategies from mathematical and network science perspectives. Criteria for controlling ecosystems to reach equilibrium with or without noise perturbation are established. The time and energy costs of restoring an ecosystem to equilibrium often determine the choice of control strategy, thus, we estimate the control costs. Furthermore, we observe that the regulation parameter in adaptive regulation affects both time and energy costs, with a trade-off existing between them. By optimizing the regulation parameter based on a performance index with fixed weights for time and energy costs, we can minimize the total cost. Moreover, we discuss the impact of the complexity of ecological networks on control costs, where the more complex the networks, the higher the costs. We provide corresponding theoretical analyses for random networks, predator-prey networks, and mixture networks.

Singleton-based species names and fungal rarity: Does the number really matter?

Fungi are among the least known organisms on earth, with an estimated number of species between 1.5 and 10 million. This number is expected to be refined, especially with increasing knowledge about microfungi in undersampled habitats and increasing amounts of data derived from environmental DNA sequencing. A significant proportion of newly generated sequences fail to match with already named species, and thus represent what has been referred to as fungal "dark taxa". Due to the challenges associated with observing, identifying, and preserving sporophores, many macro- and microfungal species are only known from a single collection, specimen, isolate, and/or sequence-a singleton. Mycologists are consequently used to working with "rare" sequences and specimens. However, rarity and singleton phenomena lack consideration and valorization in fungal studies. In particular, the practice of publishing new fungal species names based on a single specimen remains a cause of debate. Here, we provide some elements of reflection on this issue in the light of the specificities of the fungal kingdom and global change context. If multiple independent sources of data support the existence of a new taxon, we encourage mycologists to proceed with formal description, irrespective of the number of specimens at hand. Although the description of singleton-based species may not be considered best practice, it does represent responsible science in the light of closing the Linnean biodiversity shortfall.

Network-based restoration strategies maximize ecosystem recovery

Redressing global patterns of biodiversity loss requires quantitative frameworks that can predict ecosystem collapse and inform restoration strategies. By applying a network-based dynamical approach to synthetic and real-world mutualistic ecosystems, we show that biodiversity recovery following collapse is maximized when extirpated species are reintroduced based solely on their total number of connections in the original interaction network. More complex network-based strategies that prioritize the reintroduction of species that improve 'higher order' topological features such as compartmentalization do not provide meaningful performance improvements. These results suggest that it is possible to design nearly optimal restoration strategies that maximize biodiversity recovery for data-poor ecosystems in order to ensure the delivery of critical natural services that fuel economic development, food security, and human health around the globe.

Marine conservation palaeobiology: What does the late Quaternary fossil record tell us about modern-day extinctions and biodiversity threats?

Near-time conservation palaeobiology uses palaeontological, archaeological and other geohistorical records to study the late Quaternary transition of the biosphere from its pristine past to its present-day, human-altered state. Given the scarcity of data on recent extinctions in the oceans, geohistorical records are critical for documenting human-driven extinctions and extinction threats in the marine realm. The historical perspective can provide two key insights. First, geohistorical records archive the state of pre-industrial oceans at local, regional and global scales, thus enabling the detection of recent extinctions and extirpations as well as shifts in species distribution, abundance, body size and ecosystem function. Second, we can untangle the contributions of natural and anthropogenic processes by documenting centennial-to-millennial changes in the composition and diversity of marine ecosystems before and after the onset of major human impacts. This long-term perspective identifies recently emerging patterns and processes that are unprecedented, thus allowing us to better assess human threats to marine biodiversity. Although global-scale extinctions are not well documented for brackish and marine invertebrates, geohistorical studies point to numerous extirpations, declines in ecosystem functions, increases in range fragmentation and dwindling abundance of previously widespread species, indicating that marine ecosystems are accumulating a human-driven extinction debt.

A review of recent and future marine extinctions

Between 20 and 24 marine extinctions, ranging from algal to mammal species, have occurred over the past 500 years. These relatively low numbers question whether the sixth mass extinction that is underway on land is also occurring in the ocean. There is, however, increasing evidence of worldwide losses of marine populations that may foretell a wave of oncoming marine extinctions. A review of current methods being used to determine the loss of biodiversity from the world's oceans reveals the need to develop and apply new assessment methodologies that incorporate standardized metrics that allow comparisons to be made among different regions and taxonomic groups, and between current extinctions and past mass extinction events. Such efforts will contribute to a better understanding of extinction risk facing marine flora and fauna, as well as the ways in which it can be mitigated.

Habitat loss predicts the functional extinction of fish from Amazonian streams during the Anthropocene

The evaluation of extinction risk has typically focused on individual species, although a shift to a focus on ecosystem functioning would appear to be an urgent priority for conservation planning, especially considering that a sixth mass extinction event has already begun. In the present study, we investigated how fish extinction driven by habitat loss may modify the functioning of freshwater Amazonian ecosystems. We sampled the fish and environmental conditions of 63 streams in the eastern Amazon and simulated extinction based on the vulnerability of the species to habitat loss, which is the principal threat to tropical biodiversity. The simulated extinction of vulnerable species led to a decrease in both the mean body size of the community and functional rarity and culminated in abrupt losses of ecosystem functions after 5% and 10% of extinction at local and regional scales. Our functional approach demonstrated the progressive loss of ecological functions in Amazon streams, which may collapse altogether following the extinction of functions related to protection against biological invasions, and associated alterations in nutrient cycling and water quality. We provide robust predictions on the modification of the ecosystem following the extinction of fish species, which is a major step toward the development of effective conservation measures that ensure the avoidance of the predicted processes, and help to prevent the loss of biodiversity and the potentially irreversible modifications to ecosystem functioning.

The Sixth Mass Extinction: fact, fiction or speculation?

There have been five Mass Extinction events in the history of Earth's biodiversity, all caused by dramatic but natural phenomena. It has been claimed that the Sixth Mass Extinction may be underway, this time caused entirely by humans. Although considerable evidence indicates that there is a biodiversity crisis of increasing extinctions and plummeting abundances, some do not accept that this amounts to a Sixth Mass Extinction. Often, they use the IUCN Red List to support their stance, arguing that the rate of species loss does not differ from the background rate. However, the Red List is heavily biased: almost all birds and mammals but only a minute fraction of invertebrates have been evaluated against conservation criteria. Incorporating estimates of the true number of invertebrate extinctions leads to the conclusion that the rate vastly exceeds the background rate and that we may indeed be witnessing the start of the Sixth Mass Extinction. As an example, we focus on molluscs, the second largest phylum in numbers of known species, and, extrapolating boldly, estimate that, since around AD 1500, possibly as many as 7.5-13% (150,000-260,000) of all ~2 million known species have already gone extinct, orders of magnitude greater than the 882 (0.04%) on the Red List. We review differences in extinction rates according to realms: marine species face significant threats but, although previous mass extinctions were largely defined by marine invertebrates, there is no evidence that the marine biota has reached the same crisis as the non-marine biota. Island species have suffered far greater rates than continental ones. Plants face similar conservation biases as do invertebrates, although there are hints they may have suffered lower extinction rates. There are also those who do not deny an extinction crisis but accept it as a new trajectory of evolution, because humans are part of the natural world; some even embrace it, with a desire to manipulate it for human benefit. We take issue with these stances. Humans are the only species able to manipulate the Earth on a grand scale, and they have allowed the current crisis to happen. Despite multiple conservation initiatives at various levels, most are not species oriented (certain charismatic vertebrates excepted) and specific actions to protect every living species individually are simply unfeasible because of the tyranny of numbers. As systematic biologists, we encourage the nurturing of the innate human appreciation of biodiversity, but we reaffirm the message that the biodiversity that makes our world so fascinating, beautiful and functional is vanishing unnoticed at an unprecedented rate. In the face of a mounting crisis, scientists must adopt the practices of preventive archaeology, and collect and document as many species as possible before they disappear. All this depends on reviving the venerable study of natural history and taxonomy. Denying the crisis, simply accepting it and doing nothing, or even embracing it for the ostensible benefit of humanity, are not appropriate options and pave the way for the Earth to continue on its sad trajectory towards a Sixth Mass Extinction.

Ecological Networks and Fluvial Corridors in Calabria (Southern Italy)

The anthropic pressure on natural systems is the main cause for the present process of biodiversity loss in terrestrial biosphere [1]. Really, the human disturbance on Earth affects the 74.1% of terrestrial and marine habitats, including 22.4% completely modified, 51.7% partially disturbed and just the 25.9% in natural and pristine conditions [2]. At the beginning of third millenium, in the middle of a post-industrial era, named “Anthropocene” [3], mankind is causing the greatest mass extinction of wildlife in terrestrial biosphere [4-6].

Scaling the effects of ocean acidification on coral growth and coral-coral competition on coral community recovery

Ocean acidification (OA) is negatively affecting calcification in a wide variety of marine organisms. These effects are acute for many tropical scleractinian corals under short-term experimental conditions, but it is unclear how these effects interact with ecological processes, such as competition for space, to impact coral communities over multiple years. This study sought to test the use of individual-based models (IBMs) as a tool to scale up the effects of OA recorded in short-term studies to community-scale impacts, combining data from field surveys and mesocosm experiments to parameterize an IBM of coral community recovery on the fore reef of Moorea, French Polynesia. Focusing on the dominant coral genera from the fore reef, Pocillopora, Acropora, Montipora and Porites, model efficacy first was evaluated through the comparison of simulated and empirical dynamics from 2010-2016, when the reef was recovering from sequential acute disturbances (a crown-of-thorns seastar outbreak followed by a cyclone) that reduced coral cover to ~0% by 2010. The model then was used to evaluate how the effects of OA (1,100-1,200 µatm pCO₂) on coral growth and competition among corals affected recovery rates (as assessed by changes in % cover y^-1) of each coral population between 2010-2016. The model indicated that recovery rates for the fore reef community was halved by OA over 7 years, with cover increasing at 11% y^-1 under ambient conditions and 4.8% y^-1 under OA conditions. However, when OA was implemented to affect coral growth and not competition among corals, coral community recovery increased to 7.2% y^-1, highlighting mechanisms other than growth suppression (i.e., competition), through which OA can impact recovery. Our study reveals the potential for IBMs to assess the impacts of OA on coral communities at temporal and spatial scales beyond the capabilities of experimental studies, but this potential will not be realized unless empirical analyses address a wider variety of response variables representing ecological, physiological and functional domains.

The population sizes and global extinction risk of reef-building coral species at biogeographic scales

Knowledge of a species' abundance is critically important for assessing its risk of extinction, but for the vast majority of wild animal and plant species such data are scarce at biogeographic scales. Here, we estimate the total number of reef-building corals and the population sizes of more than 300 individual species on reefs spanning the Pacific Ocean biodiversity gradient, from Indonesia to French Polynesia. Our analysis suggests that approximately half a trillion corals (0.3 × 10¹²-0.8 × 10¹²) inhabit these coral reefs, similar to the number of trees in the Amazon. Two-thirds of the examined species have population sizes exceeding 100 million colonies, and one-fifth of the species even have population sizes greater than 1 billion colonies. Our findings suggest that, while local depletions pose imminent threats that can have ecologically devastating impacts to coral reefs, the global extinction risk of most coral species is lower than previously estimated.

Towards quantifying the mass extinction debt of the Anthropocene

To make sense of our present biodiversity crises, the modern rate of species extinctions is commonly compared to a benchmark, or 'background,' rate derived from the fossil record. These estimates are critical for bounding the scale of modern diversity loss, but are yet to fully account for the fundamental structure of extinction rates through time. Namely, a substantial fraction of extinctions within the fossil record occurs within relatively short-lived extinction pulses, and not during intervals characterized by background rates of extinction. Accordingly, it is more appropriate to compare the modern event to these pulses than to the long-term average rate. Unfortunately, neither the duration of extinction pulses in the geological record nor the ultimate magnitude of the extinction pulse today is resolved, making assessments of their relative sizes difficult. In addition, the common metric used to compare current and past extinction rates does not correct for large differences in observation duration. Here, we propose a new predictive metric that may be used to ascertain the ultimate extent of the ongoing extinction threat, building on the observation that extinction magnitude in the marine fossil record is correlated to the magnitude of sedimentary turnover. Thus, we propose that the ultimate number of species destined for extinction today can be predicted by way of a quantitative appraisal of humanity's modification of ecosystems as recorded in sediments-that is, by comparing our future rock record with that of the past. The ubiquity of habitat disruption worldwide suggests that a profound mass extinction debt exists today, but one that might yet be averted by preserving and restoring ecosystems and their geological traces.

Evidence from South Africa for a protracted end-Permian extinction on land

Earth's largest biotic crisis occurred during the Permo-Triassic Transition (PTT). On land, this event witnessed a turnover from synapsid- to archosauromorph-dominated assemblages and a restructuring of terrestrial ecosystems. However, understanding extinction patterns has been limited by a lack of high-precision fossil occurrence data to resolve events on submillion-year timescales. We analyzed a unique database of 588 fossil tetrapod specimens from South Africa's Karoo Basin, spanning ∼4 My, and 13 stratigraphic bin intervals averaging 300,000 y each. Using sample-standardized methods, we characterized faunal assemblage dynamics during the PTT. High regional extinction rates occurred through a protracted interval of ∼1 Ma, initially co-occurring with low origination rates. This resulted in declining diversity up to the acme of extinction near the Daptocephalus-Lystrosaurus declivis Assemblage Zone boundary. Regional origination rates increased abruptly above this boundary, co-occurring with high extinction rates to drive rapid turnover and an assemblage of short-lived species symptomatic of ecosystem instability. The "disaster taxon" Lystrosaurus shows a long-term trend of increasing abundance initiated in the latest Permian. Lystrosaurus comprised 54% of all specimens by the onset of mass extinction and 70% in the extinction aftermath. This early Lystrosaurus abundance suggests its expansion was facilitated by environmental changes rather than by ecological opportunity following the extinctions of other species as commonly assumed for disaster taxa. Our findings conservatively place the Karoo extinction interval closer in time, but not coeval with, the more rapid marine event and reveal key differences between the PTT extinctions on land and in the oceans.

Dead clades walking are a pervasive macroevolutionary pattern

D. Jablonski [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99, 8139-8144 (2002)] coined the term "dead clades walking" (DCWs) to describe marine fossil orders that experience significant drops in genus richness during mass extinction events and never rediversify to previous levels. This phenomenon is generally interpreted as further evidence that the macroevolutionary consequences of mass extinctions can continue well past the formal boundary. It is unclear, however, exactly how long DCWs are expected to persist after extinction events and to what degree they impact broader trends in Phanerozoic biodiversity. Here we analyze the fossil occurrences of 134 skeletonized marine invertebrate orders in the Paleobiology Database (paleobiodb.org) using a Bayesian method to identify significant change points in genus richness. Our analysis identifies 70 orders that experience major diversity losses without recovery. Most of these taxa, however, do not fit the popular conception of DCWs as clades that narrowly survive a mass extinction event and linger for only a few stages before succumbing to extinction. The median postdrop duration of these DCW orders is long (>30 Myr), suggesting that previous studies may have underestimated the long-term taxonomic impact of mass extinction events. More importantly, many drops in diversity without recovery are not associated with mass extinction events and occur during background extinction stages. The prevalence of DCW orders throughout both mass and background extinction intervals and across phyla (>50% of all marine invertebrate orders) suggests that the DCW pattern is a major component of macroevolutionary turnover.

Impacts of speciation and extinction measured by an evolutionary decay clock

The hypothesis that destructive mass extinctions enable creative evolutionary radiations (creative destruction) is central to classic concepts of macroevolution^1,2. However, the relative impacts of extinction and radiation on the co-occurrence of species have not been directly quantitatively compared across the Phanerozoic eon. Here we apply machine learning to generate a spatial embedding (multidimensional ordination) of the temporal co-occurrence structure of the Phanerozoic fossil record, covering 1,273,254 occurrences in the Paleobiology Database for 171,231 embedded species. This facilitates the simultaneous comparison of macroevolutionary disruptions, using measures independent of secular diversity trends. Among the 5% most significant periods of disruption, we identify the 'big five' mass extinction events², seven additional mass extinctions, two combined mass extinction-radiation events and 15 mass radiations. In contrast to narratives that emphasize post-extinction radiations^1,3, we find that the proportionally most comparable mass radiations and extinctions (such as the Cambrian explosion and the end-Permian mass extinction) are typically decoupled in time, refuting any direct causal relationship between them. Moreover, in addition to extinctions⁴, evolutionary radiations themselves cause evolutionary decay (modelled co-occurrence probability and shared fraction of species between times approaching zero), a concept that we describe as destructive creation. A direct test of the time to over-threshold macroevolutionary decay⁴ (shared fraction of species between two times ≤ 0.1), counted by the decay clock, reveals saw-toothed fluctuations around a Phanerozoic mean of 18.6 million years. As the Quaternary period began at a below-average decay-clock time of 11 million years, modern extinctions further increase life's decay-clock debt.

High Preservation Potential of Paleogeographic Range Size Distributions in Deep Time

AbstractReconstructing geographic range sizes from fossil data is a crucial tool in paleoecology, elucidating macroecological and macroevolutionary processes. Studies examining links between range size and extinction risk may also offer a predictive tool for identifying species most vulnerable in the "sixth mass extinction." However, the extent to which paleogeographic ranges can be recorded reliably in the fossil record is unknown. We perform simulation-based extinction experiments to examine (1) the fidelity of paleogeographic range size preservation in deep time, (2) the relative performance of different methods for reconstructing range size, and (3) the reliability of detecting patterns of extinction "selectivity" on range size. Our results suggest both that relative paleogeographic range size can be consistently reconstructed and that selectivity patterns on range size can be preserved under many extinction intensities, even when sedimentary rocks are scarce. By identifying patterns of selectivity across Earth's history, paleontologists can thus augment neontological work that aims to predict and prevent extinctions of living species. Last, we find that introducing "false extinctions" in the fossil record can produce spurious range-selectivity signals. Errors in the temporal ranges of species may pose a larger barrier to reconstructing range size-extinction risk signals than the spatial distribution of fossiliferous sediments.

Shrub and vegetation cover predict resource selection use by an endangered species of desert lizard

Globally, no species is exempt from the constraints associated with limited available habitat or resources, and endangered species in particular warrant critical examination. In most cases, these species are restricted to limited locations, and the relative likelihood of resource use within the space they can access is important. Using Gambelia sila, one of the first vertebrate species listed as endangered, we used resource selection function analysis of telemetry and remotely sensed data to identity key drivers of selected versus available locations for this species in Carrizo Plain National Monument, USA. We examined the probability of selection given different resource types. Increasing shrub cover, lower and relatively more flat sites, increasing normalized difference vegetation index, and solar radiation all significantly predicted likelihood of observed selection within the area sampled. Imagery data were also validated with fine-scale field data showing that large-scale contrasts of selection relative to available location patterns for animal species are a useful lens for potential habitat. Key environmental infrastructure such as foundation plant species including shrubs or local differences in the physical attributes were relevant to this endangered species.

Impacts of spatial and environmental differentiation on early Palaeozoic marine biodiversity

The unprecedented diversifications in the fossil record of the early Palaeozoic (541-419 million years ago) increased both within-sample (α) and global (γ) diversity, generating considerable ecological complexity. Faunal difference (β diversity), including spatial heterogeneity, is thought to have played a major role in early Palaeozoic marine diversification, although α diversity is the major determinant of γ diversity through the Phanerozoic. Drivers for this Phanerozoic shift from β to α diversity are not yet resolved. Here, we evaluate the impacts of environmental and faunal heterogeneity on diversity patterns using a global spatial grid. We present early Palaeozoic genus-level α, β and γ diversity curves for molluscs, brachiopods, trilobites and echinoderms and compare them with measures of spatial lithological heterogeneity, which is our proxy for environmental heterogeneity. We find that α and β diversity are associated with increased lithological heterogeneity, and that β diversity declines over time while α increases. We suggest that the enhanced dispersal of marine taxa from the Middle Ordovician onwards facilitated increases in α diversity by encouraging the occupation of narrow niches and increasing the prevalence of transient species, simultaneously reducing spatial β diversity. This may have contributed to a shift from β to α diversity as the major determinant of γ diversity increase over this critical evolutionary interval.

The Effects of Interaction between Climate Change and Land-Use/Cover Change on Biodiversity-Related Ecosystem Services

Climate change and land-use/cover change (LUCC) are two major types of global environmental change. They are increasingly challenging the main objectives of ecosystem management, which are to provide ecosystem services sustainably to society and maintain biodiversity. However, a comprehensive understanding of how climate-land-use change affects these primary goals of ecosystem management is still lacking. Here, a global literature review on the impacts of climate change and LUCC on ecosystem services related to biodiversity is presented. In this review, possible ecological responses at species, community, and ecosystem levels, and the effects of interaction mechanisms between climate change and LUCC on biodiversity-related ecosystem services are identified. The results show possible effects on species facing climate change challenges through affecting distribution/range shifts, interspecific relations, richness, and abundance, and the impacts on biodiversity through increasing extinction rates, nutrient deposition, and habitat fragmentation under LUCC. Climate change may hinder the ability of species to deal with LUCC, and in turn LUCC could reduce resilience to climate change. Understanding of these interactions is necessary to address the increasing pressure on sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services under different climate and land-use scenarios in the future.

Reconciling cooperation, biodiversity and stability in complex ecological communities

Empirical evidences show that ecosystems with high biodiversity can persist in time even in the presence of few types of resources and are more stable than low biodiverse communities. This evidence is contrasted by the conventional mathematical modeling, which predicts that the presence of many species and/or cooperative interactions are detrimental for ecological stability and persistence. Here we propose a modelling framework for population dynamics, which also include indirect cooperative interactions mediated by other species (e.g. habitat modification). We show that in the large system size limit, any number of species can coexist and stability increases as the number of species grows, if mediated cooperation is present, even in presence of exploitative or harmful interactions (e.g. antibiotics). Our theoretical approach thus shows that appropriate models of mediated cooperation naturally lead to a solution of the long-standing question about complexity-stability paradox and on how highly biodiverse communities can coexist.

Prioritizing phylogenetic diversity captures functional diversity unreliably

In the face of the biodiversity crisis, it is argued that we should prioritize species in order to capture high functional diversity (FD). Because species traits often reflect shared evolutionary history, many researchers have assumed that maximizing phylogenetic diversity (PD) should indirectly capture FD, a hypothesis that we name the “phylogenetic gambit”. Here, we empirically test this gambit using data on ecologically relevant traits from >15,000 vertebrate species. Specifically, we estimate a measure of surrogacy of PD for FD. We find that maximizing PD results in an average gain of 18% of FD relative to random choice. However, this average gain obscures the fact that in over one-third of the comparisons, maximum PD sets contain less FD than randomly chosen sets of species. These results suggest that, while maximizing PD protection can help to protect FD, it represents a risky conservation strategy.

An ongoing conservation question is if we can maintain functional diversity by optimizing for preservation of phylogenetic diversity. Here, Mazel et al. show that functional diversity increases with phylogenetic diversity in some clades but not others, and thus could be a risky conservation strategy.

Ediacaran Extinction and Cambrian Explosion

The Ediacaran-Cambrian (E-C) transition marks the most important geobiological revolution of the past billion years, including the Earth's first crisis of macroscopic eukaryotic life, and its most spectacular evolutionary diversification. Here, we describe competing models for late Ediacaran extinction, summarize evidence for these models, and outline key questions which will drive research on this interval. We argue that the paleontological data suggest two pulses of extinction - one at the White Sea-Nama transition, which ushers in a recognizably metazoan fauna (the 'Wormworld'), and a second pulse at the E-C boundary itself. We argue that this latest Ediacaran fauna has more in common with the Cambrian than the earlier Ediacaran, and thus may represent the earliest phase of the Cambrian Explosion.

Genomic Signature of an Avian Lilliput Effect across the K-Pg Extinction

Survivorship following major mass extinctions may be associated with a decrease in body size-a phenomenon called the Lilliput Effect. Body size is a strong predictor of many life history traits (LHTs), and is known to influence demography and intrinsic biological processes. Pronounced changes in organismal size throughout Earth history are therefore likely to be associated with concomitant genome-wide changes in evolutionary rates. Here, we report pronounced heterogeneity in rates of molecular evolution (varying up to $\sim$20-fold) across a large-scale avian phylogenomic data set and show that nucleotide substitution rates are strongly correlated with body size and metabolic rate. We also identify potential body size reductions associated with the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) transition, consistent with a Lilliput Effect in the wake of that mass extinction event. We posit that selection for reduced body size across the K-Pg extinction horizon may have resulted in transient increases in substitution rate along the deepest branches of the extant avian tree of life. This "hidden" rate acceleration may result in both strict and relaxed molecular clocks over-estimating the age of the avian crown group through the relationship between life history and demographic parameters that scale with molecular substitution rate. If reductions in body size (and/or selection for related demographic parameters like short generation times) are a common property of lineages surviving mass extinctions, this phenomenon may help resolve persistent divergence time debates across the tree of life. Furthermore, our results suggest that selection for certain LHTs may be associated with deterministic molecular evolutionary outcomes.

A new stem group echinoid from the Triassic of China leads to a revised macroevolutionary history of echinoids during the end-Permian mass extinction

The Permian-Triassic bottleneck has long been thought to have drastically altered the course of echinoid evolution, with the extinction of the entire echinoid stem group having taken place during the end-Permian mass extinction. The Early Triassic fossil record of echinoids is, however, sparse, and new fossils are paving the way for a revised interpretation of the evolutionary history of echinoids during the Permian-Triassic crisis and Early Mesozoic. A new species of echinoid, Yunnanechinus luopingensis n. sp. recovered from the Middle Triassic (Anisian) Luoping Biota fossil Lagerstätte of South China, displays morphologies that are not characteristic of the echinoid crown group. We have used phylogenetic analyses to further demonstrate that Yunnanechinus is not a member of the echinoid crown group. Thus a clade of stem group echinoids survived into the Middle Triassic, enduring the global crisis that characterized the end-Permian and Early Triassic. Therefore, stem group echinoids did not go extinct during the Palaeozoic, as previously thought, and appear to have coexisted with the echinoid crown group for at least 23 million years. Stem group echinoids thus exhibited the Lazarus effect during the latest Permian and Early Triassic, while crown group echinoids did not.

Shifts of community composition and population density substantially affect ecosystem function despite invariant richness

There has been considerable focus on the impacts of environmental change on ecosystem function arising from changes in species richness. However, environmental change may affect ecosystem function without affecting richness, most notably by affecting population densities and community composition. Using a theoretical model, we find that, despite invariant richness, (1) small environmental effects may already lead to a collapse of function; (2) competitive strength may be a less important determinant of ecosystem function change than the selectivity of the environmental change driver and (3) effects on ecosystem function increase when effects on composition are larger. We also present a complementary statistical analysis of 13 data sets of phytoplankton and periphyton communities exposed to chemical stressors and show that effects on primary production under invariant richness ranged from -75% to +10%. We conclude that environmental protection goals relying on measures of richness could underestimate ecological impacts of environmental change.

Rarity and persistence

Rarity is a population characteristic that is usually associated with a high risk of extinction. We argue here, however, that chronically rare species (those with low population densities over many generations across their entire ranges) may have individual-level traits that make populations more resistant to extinction. The major obstacle to persistence at low density is successful fertilisation (union between egg and sperm), and chronically rare species are more likely to survive when (1) fertilisation occurs inside or close to an adult, (2) mate choice involves long-distance signals, (3) adults or their surrogate gamete dispersers are highly mobile, or (4) the two sexes are combined in a single individual. In contrast, external fertilisation and wind- or water-driven passive dispersal of gametes, or sluggish or sedentary adult life habits in the absence of gamete vectors, appear to be incompatible with sustained rarity. We suggest that the documented increase in frequency of these traits among marine genera over geological time could explain observed secular decreases in rates of background extinction. Unanswered questions remain about how common chronic rarity actually is, which traits are consistently associated with chronic rarity, and how chronically rare species are distributed among taxa, and among the world's ecosystems and regions.

Innovation not recovery: dynamic redox promotes metazoan radiations

Environmental fluctuations in redox may reinforce rather than hinder evolutionary transitions, such that variability in near-surface oceanic oxygenation can promote morphological evolution and novelty. Modern, low-oxygen regions are heterogeneous and dynamic habitats that support low diversity and are inhabited by opportunistic and non-skeletal metazoans. We note that several major radiation episodes follow protracted or repeating intervals (>1 million years) of persistent and dynamic shallow marine redox (oceanic anoxic events). These are also often associated with short-lived mass-extinction events (<0.5 million years) where skeletal benthic incumbents are removed, and surviving or newly evolved benthos initially inhabit transient oxic habitats. We argue that such intervals create critical opportunities for the generation of evolutionary novelty, followed by innovation and diversification. We develop a general model for redox controls on the distribution and structure of the shallow marine benthos in a dominantly anoxic world, and compile data from the terminal Ediacaran-mid-Cambrian (∼560-509 Ma), late Cambrian-Ordovician (∼500-445 Ma), and Permo-Triassic (∼255-205 Ma) to test these predictions. Assembly of phylogenetic data shows that prolonged and widespread anoxic intervals indeed promoted morphological novelty in soft-bodied benthos, providing the ancestral stock for subsequently skeletonized lineages to appear as innovations once oxic conditions became widespread and stable, in turn promoting major evolutionary diversification. As a result, we propose that so-called 'recovery' intervals after mass extinctions might be better considered as 'innovation' intervals.

Upscaling species richness and abundances in tropical forests

The quantification of tropical tree biodiversity worldwide remains an open and challenging problem. More than two-fifths of the number of worldwide trees can be found either in tropical or in subtropical forests, but only ≈0.000067% of species identities are known. We introduce an analytical framework that provides robust and accurate estimates of species richness and abundances in biodiversity-rich ecosystems, as confirmed by tests performed on both in silico-generated and real forests. Our analysis shows that the approach outperforms other methods. In particular, we find that upscaling methods based on the log-series species distribution systematically overestimate the number of species and abundances of the rare species. We finally apply our new framework on 15 empirical tropical forest plots and quantify the minimum percentage cover that should be sampled to achieve a given average confidence interval in the upscaled estimate of biodiversity. Our theoretical framework confirms that the forests studied are comprised of a large number of rare or hyper-rare species. This is a signature of critical-like behavior of species-rich ecosystems and can provide a buffer against extinction.

Habitability on Early Mars and the Search for Biosignatures with the ExoMars Rover

The second ExoMars mission will be launched in 2020 to target an ancient location interpreted to have strong potential for past habitability and for preserving physical and chemical biosignatures (as well as abiotic/prebiotic organics). The mission will deliver a lander with instruments for atmospheric and geophysical investigations and a rover tasked with searching for signs of extinct life. The ExoMars rover will be equipped with a drill to collect material from outcrops and at depth down to 2 m. This subsurface sampling capability will provide the best chance yet to gain access to chemical biosignatures. Using the powerful Pasteur payload instruments, the ExoMars science team will conduct a holistic search for traces of life and seek corroborating geological context information. Key Words: Biosignatures-ExoMars-Landing sites-Mars rover-Search for life. Astrobiology 17, 471-510.

Flowering phenology shifts in response to biodiversity loss

Observational studies and experimental evidence agree that rising global temperatures have altered plant phenology-the timing of life events, such as flowering, germination, and leaf-out. Other large-scale global environmental changes, such as nitrogen deposition and altered precipitation regimes, have also been linked to changes in flowering times. Despite our increased understanding of how abiotic factors influence plant phenology, we know very little about how biotic interactions can affect flowering times, a significant knowledge gap given ongoing human-caused alteration of biodiversity and plant community structure at the global scale. We experimentally manipulated plant diversity in a California serpentine grassland and found that many plant species flowered earlier in response to reductions in diversity, with peak flowering date advancing an average of 0.6 days per species lost. These changes in phenology were mediated by the effects of plant diversity on soil surface temperature, available soil N, and soil moisture. Peak flowering dates were also more dispersed among species in high-diversity plots than expected based on monocultures. Our findings illustrate that shifts in plant species composition and diversity can alter the timing and distribution of flowering events, and that these changes to phenology are similar in magnitude to effects induced by climate change. Declining diversity could thus contribute to or exacerbate phenological changes attributed to rising global temperatures.

Consequences of biodiversity loss diverge from expectation due to post-extinction compensatory responses

Consensus has been reached that global biodiversity loss impairs ecosystem functioning and the sustainability of services beneficial to humanity. However, the ecosystem consequences of extinction in natural communities are moderated by compensatory species dynamics, yet these processes are rarely accounted for in impact assessments and seldom considered in conservation programmes. Here, we use marine invertebrate communities to parameterise numerical models of sediment bioturbation – a key mediator of biogeochemical cycling – to determine whether post-extinction compensatory mechanisms alter biodiversity-ecosystem function relations following non-random extinctions. We find that compensatory dynamics lead to trajectories of sediment mixing that diverge from those without compensation, and that the form, magnitude and variance of each probabilistic distribution is highly influenced by the type of compensation and the functional composition of surviving species. Our findings indicate that the generalized biodiversity-function relation curve, as derived from multiple empirical investigations of random species loss, is unlikely to yield representative predictions for ecosystem properties in natural systems because the influence of post-extinction community dynamics are under-represented. Recognition of this problem is fundamental to management and conservation efforts, and will be necessary to ensure future plans and adaptation strategies minimize the adverse impacts of the biodiversity crisis.

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

From success to persistence: Identifying an evolutionary regime shift in the diverse Paleozoic aquatic arthropod group Eurypterida, driven by the Devonian biotic crisis

Mass extinctions have altered the trajectory of evolution a number of times over the Phanerozoic. During these periods of biotic upheaval a different selective regime appears to operate, although it is still unclear whether consistent survivorship rules apply across different extinction events. We compare variations in diversity and disparity across the evolutionary history of a major Paleozoic arthropod group, the Eurypterida. Using these data, we explore the group's transition from a successful, dynamic clade to a stagnant persistent lineage, pinpointing the Devonian as the period during which this evolutionary regime shift occurred. The late Devonian biotic crisis is potentially unique among the "Big Five" mass extinctions in exhibiting a drop in speciation rates rather than an increase in extinction. Our study reveals eurypterids show depressed speciation rates throughout the Devonian but no abnormal peaks in extinction. Loss of morphospace occupation is random across all Paleozoic extinction events; however, differential origination during the Devonian results in a migration and subsequent stagnation of occupied morphospace. This shift appears linked to an ecological transition from euryhaline taxa to freshwater species with low morphological diversity alongside a decrease in endemism. These results demonstrate the importance of the Devonian biotic crisis in reshaping Paleozoic ecosystems.

Galvanic microcells as control agent of indoor microorganisms

Today, fungicides are part of the basic tool kit for indoor surface maintenance. However, fungi develop resistance to fungicides, which consequently accelerates the evolution of virulence. Fungicides also carry the risk of adverse effects in humans. Galvanic microcells are a new tool for fungal control on indoor surfaces. We used two types of electrodes, Zn and Cu, with two potential anti-fungal mechanisms: the oligodynamic action of the metal ions themselves and the electricidal effect of the current between the electrodes. The size of the inhibition zone is related to the distance between the electrodes. We hypothesized that the unique geometric properties of the observed inhibition zone could be modelled using multi foci curve Cassini ovals. Moreover, the size of the inhibition zone possessed two maximum values, while the shape of the observed inhibition zones correlated with the shape of the electric field strength. The control activity of the galvanic microcells correlated with decreasing water content in building materials. Thus, this acute antifungal system works the best in damp building environments where the risk of fungal contamination is highest.

Life in the Aftermath of Mass Extinctions

The vast majority of species that have ever lived went extinct sometime other than during one of the great mass extinction events. In spite of this, mass extinctions are thought to have outsized effects on the evolutionary history of life. While part of this effect is certainly due to the extinction itself, I here consider how the aftermaths of mass extinctions might contribute to the evolutionary importance of such events. Following the mass loss of taxa from the fossil record are prolonged intervals of ecological upheaval that create a selective regime unique to those times. The pacing and duration of ecosystem change during extinction aftermaths suggests strong ties between the biosphere and geosphere, and a previously undescribed macroevolutionary driver - earth system succession. Earth system succession occurs when global environmental or biotic change, as occurs across extinction boundaries, pushes the biosphere and geosphere out of equilibrium. As species and ecosystems re-evolve in the aftermath, they change global biogeochemical cycles - and in turn, species and ecosystems - over timescales typical of the geosphere, often many thousands to millions of years. Earth system succession provides a general explanation for the pattern and timing of ecological and evolutionary change in the fossil record. Importantly, it also suggests that a speed limit might exist for the pace of global biotic change after massive disturbance - a limit set by geosphere-biosphere interactions. For mass extinctions, earth system succession may drive the ever-changing ecological stage on which species evolve, restructuring ecosystems and setting long-term evolutionary trajectories as they do.