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Mohanty V, Shakhnovich EI. Biophysical fitness landscape design traps viral evolution. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2025:2025.03.30.646233. [PMID: 40236159 PMCID: PMC11996392 DOI: 10.1101/2025.03.30.646233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/17/2025]
Abstract
Rapidly evolving viruses mutate to escape antibodies generated by the human immune system, leading to periodic waves of infection and death. Modern vaccine design approaches typically focus on currently prevalent strains and thus are shortsighted and often rendered ineffective by emerging viral mutations. An ideal strategy for proactive vaccine design requires not only immediate effectiveness, but also control over future viral mutation trajectories and evolutionary fitness landscapes. Here, we introduce fitness landscape design with antibodies (FLD-A) to create optimal antibody repertoires to restrict viral fitness trajectories. By deriving a biophysical fitness model from microscopic chemical reactions, we show that while standard approaches to vaccination do not necessarily restrict evolution of viral escape, our systematic protocol can be used to design effective, proactive antibody repertoires to suppress the replication of future escape variants. Stochastic optimization is performed to discover an antibody ensemble which forces a viral surface protein to evolve according to user-defined fitness penalties against each strain, imposing a reshaped fitness landscape that disfavors viral proliferation. After validating the antibody-imposed fitness landscapes with in silico serial dilution experiments, we apply FLD-A to reshape the relative fitness effects of mutations within two SARS-CoV-2 genotype networks while maintaining overall fitness suppression. Finally, we introduce an iterative FLD-A protocol which consistently discovers vaccination target sequences that generate antibodies which simultaneously restrict wildtype and escape variant fitness trajectories. Biophysical FLD-A thus opens the door to evolutionary control and proactive vaccine, antibody, and peptide design, thinking several steps ahead of pathogen evolution.
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Aw DZH, Zhang DX, Vignuzzi M. Strategies and efforts in circumventing the emergence of antiviral resistance against conventional antivirals. NPJ ANTIMICROBIALS AND RESISTANCE 2025; 3:54. [PMID: 40490516 DOI: 10.1038/s44259-025-00125-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2024] [Accepted: 05/21/2025] [Indexed: 06/11/2025]
Abstract
Antiviral resistance stemming from rapid viral evolution and adaptation is a major challenge faced in treating viral infections. Here, we describe the mechanisms and factors underlying antiviral resistance and their implications to future drug development. Current improvements to conventional methods provide viable options to overcome antiviral resistance. Ongoing efforts in developing new antiviral strategies are also discussed. Examples from across virology are used to illustrate how virus evolution and antiviral therapy influence each other.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daryl Zheng Hao Aw
- A*STAR Infectious Diseases Labs (A*STAR ID Labs), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR), 8A Biomedical Grove, Immunos #05-13, Singapore, 138648, Singapore
| | - Denzel Xugeng Zhang
- A*STAR Infectious Diseases Labs (A*STAR ID Labs), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR), 8A Biomedical Grove, Immunos #05-13, Singapore, 138648, Singapore
| | - Marco Vignuzzi
- A*STAR Infectious Diseases Labs (A*STAR ID Labs), Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR), 8A Biomedical Grove, Immunos #05-13, Singapore, 138648, Singapore.
- Infectious Diseases Translational Research Programme, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
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Biswas A, Choudhuri I, Huang K, Sun Q, Sali A, Echeverria I, Haldane A, Levy RM, Lyumkis D. Evolutionary Sequence and Structural Basis for the Epistatic Origins of Drug Resistance in HIV. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2025:2025.04.30.651576. [PMID: 40364913 PMCID: PMC12073831 DOI: 10.1101/2025.04.30.651576] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2025]
Abstract
The emergence of drug resistance in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a formidable challenge to the long-term efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART). A growing body of evidence highlights the critical role of epistasis, the dependence of mutational effects on the sequence context, in shaping the fitness landscape of HIV under ART-induced selection pressure. However, the biophysical origins of the epistatic interactions involved in engendering drug-resistance mutations (DRMs) remain unclear. Are the mutational correlations "intrinsic" to the properties of the protein, or do they arise because of drug binding? We use a Potts sequence-covariation statistical energy model built on patient-derived HIV-1 protein sequences to construct computational double mutant cycles that probe pairwise epistasis for all observed mutations across the three major HIV drug-target enzymes. We find that the strongest epistatic effects occur between mutations at residue positions that frequently mutate during the course of ART, termed resistance-associated positions. To investigate the structural origins of the strongest epistatic interactions, we perform ∼100 free energy perturbation molecular dynamics simulations, revealing that the primary contribution to the pairwise epistasis between DRMs arises from cooperative effects on protein stability and folding as an intrinsic consequence of the protein mutational landscape. The results collectively reinforce a mechanism of resistance evolution whereby viruses escape drug pressure by selectively engendering mutations at "intrinsically" coupled sites, allowing them to cooperatively ameliorate fitness detriments incurred by individual DRMs. Significance Epistasis refers to the phenomenon where the effect of a mutation on protein structure and function is dependent on the genetic sequence background of the mutation, resulting in the combined effect of mutations being non-additive. Epistasis plays a significant role in the evolution of drug resistance in viruses such as HIV under therapeutic selection pressure. We combine a protein sequence coevolutionary model and molecular dynamics free energy simulations to identify and probe the mechanistic origins of the strongest epistatic interactions connecting HIV drug-resistance mutations. The work establishes a foundation to probe the molecular bases of epistasis and predict the evolution of resistance predicated on the knowledge of epistatic interaction networks.
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Leung K, Pang CWK, Lo THK, Vargas-Zambrano JC, Petit C, Lam TTY, Lau EHY, Wu JT. Immuno-persistence after the fourth and fifth doses of inactivated polio vaccines in school-aged children. Clin Microbiol Infect 2025; 31:625-629. [PMID: 39401679 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmi.2024.10.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2024] [Revised: 09/25/2024] [Accepted: 10/08/2024] [Indexed: 11/07/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aimed to assess the long-term persistence of neutralizing antibodies (nAb) titres and seroprotection proportions after the fourth and fifth doses of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). METHODS Serum samples from 299 children in Hong Kong were collected and used to estimate the persistence of nAb titres and seroprotection proportions by neutralisation test. RESULTS The mean nAb titres against poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 (PV1, PV2, and PV3) 1 month after receiving the fourth dose of IPV at 19 months of age were 2068 (95% credible interval, 1517-2864); 4705 (3439-6436); and 2758 (1894-4086); respectively, but declined substantially in 4 years to 268 (222-325), 751 (630-900), and 411 (323-521), respectively. Administration of the fifth dose of IPV restored nAb titres among children aged 6 to 7 years, and the decline in nAb titres was slightly slower with the estimated mean titres of 355 (272-462), 538 (427-681), and 548 (378-786) against PV1, PV2, and PV3 at 4 years post the fifth dose. We estimated that the proportion of children who were seroprotected against PV1, PV2, and PV3 would drop below 90%: (i) 8.2, 10.8, and 8.7 years after the fourth dose; and (ii) 11.6, 11.2, and 11.0 years after the fifth dose. DISCUSSION The results revealed the immuno-persistence after the fourth and fifth doses of IPV and highlighted the importance of completing immunization series to ensure high vaccination coverage, particularly among children in the developing countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathy Leung
- The Hong Kong Jockey Club Global Health Institute, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China; WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D(2)4H), Hong Kong Science Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China; The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, P. R. China.
| | - Chrissy W K Pang
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D(2)4H), Hong Kong Science Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China
| | - Tiffany H K Lo
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D(2)4H), Hong Kong Science Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China
| | | | - Céline Petit
- Global Immunology, Sanofi, Marcy-l'Etoile, France
| | - Tommy T Y Lam
- The Hong Kong Jockey Club Global Health Institute, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China; WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D(2)4H), Hong Kong Science Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China; The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, P. R. China
| | - Eric H Y Lau
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D(2)4H), Hong Kong Science Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China
| | - Joseph T Wu
- The Hong Kong Jockey Club Global Health Institute, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China; WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D(2)4H), Hong Kong Science Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, P. R. China; The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, P. R. China
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5
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Klink GV, Kalinina OV, Bazykin GA. Changing selection on amino acid substitutions in Gag protein between major HIV-1 subtypes. Virus Evol 2024; 10:veae036. [PMID: 38808036 PMCID: PMC11131029 DOI: 10.1093/ve/veae036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2023] [Revised: 12/27/2023] [Accepted: 04/28/2024] [Indexed: 05/30/2024] Open
Abstract
Amino acid preferences at a protein site depend on the role of this site in protein function and structure as well as on external constraints. All these factors can change in the course of evolution, making amino acid propensities of a site time-dependent. When viral subtypes divergently evolve in different host subpopulations, such changes may depend on genetic, medical, and sociocultural differences between these subpopulations. Here, using our previously developed phylogenetic approach, we describe sixty-nine amino acid sites of the Gag protein of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) where amino acids have different impact on viral fitness in six major subtypes of the type M. These changes in preferences trigger adaptive evolution; indeed, 32 (46 per cent) of these sites experienced strong positive selection at least in one of the subtypes. At some of the sites, changes in amino acid preferences may be associated with differences in immune escape between subtypes. The prevalence of an amino acid in a protein site within a subtype is only a poor predictor for whether this amino acid is preferred in this subtype according to the phylogenetic analysis. Therefore, attempts to identify the factors of viral evolution from comparative genomics data should integrate across multiple sources of information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Galya V Klink
- Laboratory of Molecular Evolution, Institute for Information Transmission Problems (Kharkevich Institute) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Bolshoy Karetny per. 19, build.1, Moscow 127051, Russia
- Center for Molecular and Cellular Biology, Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Bolshoy Boulevard, 30, p.1, Skolkovo 121205, Russia
| | - Olga V Kalinina
- Drug Bioinformatics, Helmholtz Institute for Pharmaceutical Research Saarland (HIPS)/Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), Campus E8.1, Saarbrücken 66123, Germany
- Center for Bioinformatics, Saarland University, Campus E2.1, Saarbrücken 66123, Germany
- Medical Faculty, Saarland University, Kirrberger Str. 100, Homburg 66421, Germany
| | - Georgii A Bazykin
- Laboratory of Molecular Evolution, Institute for Information Transmission Problems (Kharkevich Institute) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Bolshoy Karetny per. 19, build.1, Moscow 127051, Russia
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6
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Sesta L, Pagnani A, Fernandez-de-Cossio-Diaz J, Uguzzoni G. Inference of annealed protein fitness landscapes with AnnealDCA. PLoS Comput Biol 2024; 20:e1011812. [PMID: 38377054 PMCID: PMC10878520 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2023] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/22/2024] Open
Abstract
The design of proteins with specific tasks is a major challenge in molecular biology with important diagnostic and therapeutic applications. High-throughput screening methods have been developed to systematically evaluate protein activity, but only a small fraction of possible protein variants can be tested using these techniques. Computational models that explore the sequence space in-silico to identify the fittest molecules for a given function are needed to overcome this limitation. In this article, we propose AnnealDCA, a machine-learning framework to learn the protein fitness landscape from sequencing data derived from a broad range of experiments that use selection and sequencing to quantify protein activity. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by applying it to antibody Rep-Seq data of immunized mice and screening experiments, assessing the quality of the fitness landscape reconstructions. Our method can be applied to several experimental cases where a population of protein variants undergoes various rounds of selection and sequencing, without relying on the computation of variants enrichment ratios, and thus can be used even in cases of disjoint sequence samples.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luca Sesta
- Department of Applied Science and Technology, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy
| | - Andrea Pagnani
- Department of Applied Science and Technology, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy
- Italian Institute for Genomic Medicine, Torino, Italy
- INFN, Sezione di Torino, Torino, Italy
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7
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Devaux CA, Pontarotti P, Levasseur A, Colson P, Raoult D. Is it time to switch to a formulation other than the live attenuated poliovirus vaccine to prevent poliomyelitis? Front Public Health 2024; 11:1284337. [PMID: 38259741 PMCID: PMC10801389 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1284337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2023] [Accepted: 12/14/2023] [Indexed: 01/24/2024] Open
Abstract
The polioviruses (PVs) are mainly transmitted by direct contact with an infected person through the fecal-oral route and respiratory secretions (or more rarely via contaminated water or food) and have a primary tropism for the gut. After their replication in the gut, in rare cases (far less than 1% of the infected individuals), PVs can spread to the central nervous system leading to flaccid paralysis, which can result in respiratory paralysis and death. By the middle of the 20th century, every year the wild polioviruses (WPVs) are supposed to have killed or paralyzed over half a million people. The introduction of the oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs) through mass vaccination campaigns (combined with better application of hygiene measures), was a success story which enabled the World Health Organization (WHO) to set the global eradication of poliomyelitis as an objective. However this strategy of viral eradication has its limits as the majority of poliomyelitis cases today arise in individuals infected with circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) which regain pathogenicity following reversion or recombination. In recent years (between January 2018 and May 2023), the WHO recorded 8.8 times more cases of polio which were linked to the attenuated OPV vaccines (3,442 polio cases after reversion or recombination events) than cases linked to a WPV (390 cases). Recent knowledge of the evolution of RNA viruses and the exchange of genetic material among biological entities of the intestinal microbiota, call for a reassessment of the polio eradication vaccine strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christian Albert Devaux
- Laboratory Microbes Evolution Phylogeny and Infection (MEPHI), Aix-Marseille Université, IRD, APHM, Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS-SNC5039), Marseille, France
| | - Pierre Pontarotti
- Laboratory Microbes Evolution Phylogeny and Infection (MEPHI), Aix-Marseille Université, IRD, APHM, Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS-SNC5039), Marseille, France
| | - Anthony Levasseur
- Laboratory Microbes Evolution Phylogeny and Infection (MEPHI), Aix-Marseille Université, IRD, APHM, Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
| | - Philippe Colson
- Laboratory Microbes Evolution Phylogeny and Infection (MEPHI), Aix-Marseille Université, IRD, APHM, Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
| | - Didier Raoult
- Laboratory Microbes Evolution Phylogeny and Infection (MEPHI), Aix-Marseille Université, IRD, APHM, Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire Méditerranée Infection, Marseille, France
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8
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Zhang H, Bull RA, Quadeer AA, McKay MR. HCV E1 influences the fitness landscape of E2 and may enhance escape from E2-specific antibodies. Virus Evol 2023; 9:vead068. [PMID: 38107333 PMCID: PMC10722114 DOI: 10.1093/ve/vead068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2023] [Revised: 09/27/2023] [Accepted: 11/16/2023] [Indexed: 12/19/2023] Open
Abstract
The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) envelope glycoprotein E1 forms a non-covalent heterodimer with E2, the main target of neutralizing antibodies. How E1-E2 interactions influence viral fitness and contribute to resistance to E2-specific antibodies remain largely unknown. We investigate this problem using a combination of fitness landscape and evolutionary modeling. Our analysis indicates that E1 and E2 proteins collectively mediate viral fitness and suggests that fitness-compensating E1 mutations may accelerate escape from E2-targeting antibodies. Our analysis also identifies a set of E2-specific human monoclonal antibodies that are predicted to be especially resilient to escape via genetic variation in both E1 and E2, providing directions for robust HCV vaccine development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hang Zhang
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - Rowena A Bull
- School of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
- The Kirby Institute for Infection and Immunity, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Ahmed Abdul Quadeer
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong, SAR, China
- Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
| | - Matthew R McKay
- Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
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9
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Zhang H, Quadeer AA, McKay MR. Direct-acting antiviral resistance of Hepatitis C virus is promoted by epistasis. Nat Commun 2023; 14:7457. [PMID: 37978179 PMCID: PMC10656532 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42550-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2023] [Accepted: 10/13/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) provide efficacious therapeutic treatments for chronic Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. However, emergence of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) can greatly affect treatment outcomes and impede virological cure. While multiple DRMs have been observed for all currently used DAAs, the evolutionary determinants of such mutations are not currently well understood. Here, by considering DAAs targeting the nonstructural 3 (NS3) protein of HCV, we present results suggesting that epistasis plays an important role in the evolution of DRMs. Employing a sequence-based fitness landscape model whose predictions correlate highly with experimental data, we identify specific DRMs that are associated with strong epistatic interactions, and these are found to be enriched in multiple NS3-specific DAAs. Evolutionary modelling further supports that the identified DRMs involve compensatory mutational interactions that facilitate relatively easy escape from drug-induced selection pressures. Our results indicate that accounting for epistasis is important for designing future HCV NS3-targeting DAAs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hang Zhang
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Ahmed Abdul Quadeer
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong SAR, China.
| | - Matthew R McKay
- Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
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10
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Marie V, Gordon ML. The (Re-)Emergence and Spread of Viral Zoonotic Disease: A Perfect Storm of Human Ingenuity and Stupidity. Viruses 2023; 15:1638. [PMID: 37631981 PMCID: PMC10458268 DOI: 10.3390/v15081638] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2023] [Revised: 07/22/2023] [Accepted: 07/25/2023] [Indexed: 08/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Diseases that are transmitted from vertebrate animals to humans are referred to as zoonotic diseases. Although microbial agents such as bacteria and parasites are linked to zoonotic events, viruses account for a high percentage of zoonotic diseases that have emerged. Worryingly, the 21st century has seen a drastic increase in the emergence and re-emergence of viral zoonotic disease. Even though humans and animals have coexisted for millennia, anthropogenic factors have severely increased interactions between the two populations, thereby increasing the risk of disease spill-over. While drivers such as climate shifts, land exploitation and wildlife trade can directly affect the (re-)emergence of viral zoonotic disease, globalisation, geopolitics and social perceptions can directly facilitate the spread of these (re-)emerging diseases. This opinion paper discusses the "intelligent" nature of viruses and their exploitation of the anthropogenic factors driving the (re-)emergence and spread of viral zoonotic disease in a modernised and connected world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Veronna Marie
- Microbiology Laboratory, Department of Analytical Services, Rand Water, Vereeniging 1939, South Africa
| | - Michelle L. Gordon
- School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa;
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11
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Moulana A, Dupic T, Phillips AM, Desai MM. Genotype-phenotype landscapes for immune-pathogen coevolution. Trends Immunol 2023; 44:384-396. [PMID: 37024340 PMCID: PMC10147585 DOI: 10.1016/j.it.2023.03.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2023] [Revised: 03/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/09/2023] [Indexed: 04/07/2023]
Abstract
Our immune systems constantly coevolve with the pathogens that challenge them, as pathogens adapt to evade our defense responses, with our immune repertoires shifting in turn. These coevolutionary dynamics take place across a vast and high-dimensional landscape of potential pathogen and immune receptor sequence variants. Mapping the relationship between these genotypes and the phenotypes that determine immune-pathogen interactions is crucial for understanding, predicting, and controlling disease. Here, we review recent developments applying high-throughput methods to create large libraries of immune receptor and pathogen protein sequence variants and measure relevant phenotypes. We describe several approaches that probe different regions of the high-dimensional sequence space and comment on how combinations of these methods may offer novel insight into immune-pathogen coevolution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alief Moulana
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
| | - Thomas Dupic
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
| | - Angela M Phillips
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of California at San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA
| | - Michael M Desai
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA; Department of Physics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA; NSF-Simons Center for Mathematical and Statistical Analysis of Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA; Quantitative Biology Initiative, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
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12
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Domingo E, García-Crespo C, Soria ME, Perales C. Viral Fitness, Population Complexity, Host Interactions, and Resistance to Antiviral Agents. Curr Top Microbiol Immunol 2023; 439:197-235. [PMID: 36592247 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-15640-3_6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
Fitness of viruses has become a standard parameter to quantify their adaptation to a biological environment. Fitness determinations for RNA viruses (and some highly variable DNA viruses) meet with several uncertainties. Of particular interest are those that arise from mutant spectrum complexity, absence of population equilibrium, and internal interactions among components of a mutant spectrum. Here, concepts, fitness measurements, limitations, and current views on experimental viral fitness landscapes are discussed. The effect of viral fitness on resistance to antiviral agents is covered in some detail since it constitutes a widespread problem in antiviral pharmacology, and a challenge for the design of effective antiviral treatments. Recent evidence with hepatitis C virus suggests the operation of mechanisms of antiviral resistance additional to the standard selection of drug-escape mutants. The possibility that high replicative fitness may be the driver of such alternative mechanisms is considered. New broad-spectrum antiviral designs that target viral fitness may curtail the impact of drug-escape mutants in treatment failures. We consider to what extent fitness-related concepts apply to coronaviruses and how they may affect strategies for COVID-19 prevention and treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Esteban Domingo
- Centro de Biología Molecular "Severo Ochoa" (CSIC-UAM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Campus de Cantoblanco, 28049, Madrid, Spain. .,Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, 28029, Madrid, Spain.
| | - Carlos García-Crespo
- Centro de Biología Molecular "Severo Ochoa" (CSIC-UAM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Campus de Cantoblanco, 28049, Madrid, Spain.,Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - María Eugenia Soria
- Centro de Biología Molecular "Severo Ochoa" (CSIC-UAM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Campus de Cantoblanco, 28049, Madrid, Spain.,Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, 28029, Madrid, Spain.,Department of Clinical Microbiology, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria-Fundación Jiménez Díaz University Hospital, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (IIS-FJD, UAM), Av. Reyes Católicos 2, 28040, Madrid, Spain
| | - Celia Perales
- Centro de Biología Molecular "Severo Ochoa" (CSIC-UAM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Campus de Cantoblanco, 28049, Madrid, Spain.,Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, 28029, Madrid, Spain.,Department of Clinical Microbiology, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria-Fundación Jiménez Díaz University Hospital, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (IIS-FJD, UAM), Av. Reyes Católicos 2, 28040, Madrid, Spain.,Department of Molecular and Cell Biology, Centro Nacional de Biotecnología (CNB-CSIC), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Campus de Cantoblanco, 28049, Madrid, Spain
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Zeng HL, Liu Y, Dichio V, Aurell E. Temporal epistasis inference from more than 3 500 000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences. Phys Rev E 2022; 106:044409. [PMID: 36397507 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.106.044409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2022] [Accepted: 09/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
We use direct coupling analysis (DCA) to determine epistatic interactions between loci of variability of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, segmenting genomes by month of sampling. We use full-length, high-quality genomes from the GISAID repository up to October 2021 for a total of over 3 500 000 genomes. We find that DCA terms are more stable over time than correlations but nevertheless change over time as mutations disappear from the global population or reach fixation. Correlations are enriched for phylogenetic effects, and in particularly statistical dependencies at short genomic distances, while DCA brings out links at longer genomic distance. We discuss the validity of a DCA analysis under these conditions in terms of a transient auasilinkage equilibrium state. We identify putative epistatic interaction mutations involving loci in spike.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong-Li Zeng
- School of Science, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, New Energy Technology Engineering Laboratory of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Yue Liu
- School of Science, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, New Energy Technology Engineering Laboratory of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Vito Dichio
- Inria Paris, Aramis Project Team, Paris 75013, France
- Institut du Cerveau, ICM, Inserm U 1127, CNRS UMR 7225, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
| | - Erik Aurell
- Department of Computational Science and Technology, AlbaNova University Center, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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14
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Ahmed SF, Sohail MS, Quadeer AA, McKay MR. Vaccinia-Virus-Based Vaccines Are Expected to Elicit Highly Cross-Reactive Immunity to the 2022 Monkeypox Virus. Viruses 2022; 14:1960. [PMID: 36146766 PMCID: PMC9506226 DOI: 10.3390/v14091960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2022] [Revised: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 09/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Beginning in May 2022, a novel cluster of monkeypox virus infections was detected in humans. This virus has spread rapidly to non-endemic countries, sparking global concern. Specific vaccines based on the vaccinia virus (VACV) have demonstrated high efficacy against monkeypox viruses in the past and are considered an important outbreak control measure. Viruses observed in the current outbreak carry distinct genetic variations that have the potential to affect vaccine-induced immune recognition. Here, by investigating genetic variation with respect to orthologous immunogenic vaccinia-virus proteins, we report data that anticipates immune responses induced by VACV-based vaccines, including the currently available MVA-BN and ACAM2000 vaccines, to remain highly cross-reactive against the newly observed monkeypox viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Syed Faraz Ahmed
- Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
| | - Muhammad Saqib Sohail
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Ahmed Abdul Quadeer
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Matthew R. McKay
- Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
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15
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Doelger J, Kardar M, Chakraborty AK. Inferring the intrinsic mutational fitness landscape of influenzalike evolving antigens from temporally ordered sequence data. Phys Rev E 2022; 105:024401. [PMID: 35291059 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.105.024401] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 01/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
There still are no effective long-term protective vaccines against viruses that continuously evolve under immune pressure such as seasonal influenza, which has caused, and can cause, devastating epidemics in the human population. To find such a broadly protective immunization strategy, it is useful to know how easily the virus can escape via mutation from specific antibody responses. This information is encoded in the fitness landscape of the viral proteins (i.e., knowledge of the viral fitness as a function of sequence). Here we present a computational method to infer the intrinsic mutational fitness landscape of influenzalike evolving antigens from yearly sequence data. We test inference performance with computer-generated sequence data that are based on stochastic simulations mimicking basic features of immune-driven viral evolution. Although the numerically simulated model does create a phylogeny based on the allowed mutations, the inference scheme does not use this information. This provides a contrast to other methods that rely on reconstruction of phylogenetic trees. Our method just needs a sufficient number of samples over multiple years. With our method, we are able to infer single as well as pairwise mutational fitness effects from the simulated sequence time series for short antigenic proteins. Our fitness inference approach may have potential future use for the design of immunization protocols by identifying intrinsically vulnerable immune target combinations on antigens that evolve under immune-driven selection. In the future, this approach may be applied to influenza and other novel viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, which evolves and, like influenza, might continue to escape the natural and vaccine-mediated immune pressures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia Doelger
- Institute for Medical Engineering and Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA
| | - Mehran Kardar
- Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA
| | - Arup K Chakraborty
- Institute for Medical Engineering and Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA; Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA; Department of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA; Department of Chemistry, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA; and Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT, and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA
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16
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Zhang H, Quadeer AA, McKay MR. Evolutionary modeling reveals enhanced mutational flexibility of HCV subtype 1b compared with 1a. iScience 2022; 25:103569. [PMID: 34988406 PMCID: PMC8704487 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2021.103569] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2021] [Revised: 11/19/2021] [Accepted: 12/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-associated disease and liver cancer. Of the major HCV subtypes, patients infected with subtype 1b have been associated with having a higher risk of developing chronic infection and hepatocellular carcinoma. However, underlying reasons for this increased disease severity remain unknown. Here, we provide an evolutionary rationale, based on a comparative study of fitness landscape and in-host evolutionary models of the E2 glycoprotein of HCV subtypes 1a and 1b. Our analysis demonstrates that a higher chronicity rate of 1b may be attributed to lower fitness constraints, enabling 1b viruses to more easily escape antibody responses. More generally, our results suggest that differences in evolutionary constraints between HCV subtypes may be an important factor in mediating distinct disease outcomes. Our analysis also identifies antibodies that appear escape-resistant against both subtypes 1a and 1b, providing directions for designing HCV vaccines having cross-subtype protection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hang Zhang
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - Ahmed A. Quadeer
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - Matthew R. McKay
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong, SAR, China
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong, SAR, China
- Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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17
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Biswas A, Haldane A, Levy RM. Limits to detecting epistasis in the fitness landscape of HIV. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0262314. [PMID: 35041711 PMCID: PMC8765623 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2021] [Accepted: 12/20/2021] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
The rapid evolution of HIV is constrained by interactions between mutations which affect viral fitness. In this work, we explore the role of epistasis in determining the mutational fitness landscape of HIV for multiple drug target proteins, including Protease, Reverse Transcriptase, and Integrase. Epistatic interactions between residues modulate the mutation patterns involved in drug resistance, with unambiguous signatures of epistasis best seen in the comparison of the Potts model predicted and experimental HIV sequence "prevalences" expressed as higher-order marginals (beyond triplets) of the sequence probability distribution. In contrast, experimental measures of fitness such as viral replicative capacities generally probe fitness effects of point mutations in a single background, providing weak evidence for epistasis in viral systems. The detectable effects of epistasis are obscured by higher evolutionary conservation at sites. While double mutant cycles in principle, provide one of the best ways to probe epistatic interactions experimentally without reference to a particular background, we show that the analysis is complicated by the small dynamic range of measurements. Overall, we show that global pairwise interaction Potts models are necessary for predicting the mutational landscape of viral proteins.
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Affiliation(s)
- Avik Biswas
- Department of Physics, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America
- Center for Biophysics and Computational Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America
| | - Allan Haldane
- Department of Physics, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America
- Center for Biophysics and Computational Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America
| | - Ronald M. Levy
- Department of Physics, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America
- Center for Biophysics and Computational Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America
- Department of Chemistry, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America
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18
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Delgado S, Perales C, García-Crespo C, Soria ME, Gallego I, de Ávila AI, Martínez-González B, Vázquez-Sirvent L, López-Galíndez C, Morán F, Domingo E. A Two-Level, Intramutant Spectrum Haplotype Profile of Hepatitis C Virus Revealed by Self-Organized Maps. Microbiol Spectr 2021; 9:e0145921. [PMID: 34756074 PMCID: PMC8579923 DOI: 10.1128/spectrum.01459-21] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2021] [Accepted: 10/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
RNA viruses replicate as complex mutant spectra termed viral quasispecies. The frequency of each individual genome in a mutant spectrum depends on its rate of generation and its relative fitness in the replicating population ensemble. The advent of deep sequencing methodologies allows for the first-time quantification of haplotype abundances within mutant spectra. There is no information on the haplotype profile of the resident genomes and how the landscape evolves when a virus replicates in a controlled cell culture environment. Here, we report the construction of intramutant spectrum haplotype landscapes of three amplicons of the NS5A-NS5B coding region of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Two-dimensional (2D) neural networks were constructed for 44 related HCV populations derived from a common clonal ancestor that was passaged up to 210 times in human hepatoma Huh-7.5 cells in the absence of external selective pressures. The haplotype profiles consisted of an extended dense basal platform, from which a lower number of protruding higher peaks emerged. As HCV increased its adaptation to the cells, the number of haplotype peaks within each mutant spectrum expanded, and their distribution shifted in the 2D network. The results show that extensive HCV replication in a monotonous cell culture environment does not limit HCV exploration of sequence space through haplotype peak movements. The landscapes reflect dynamic variation in the intramutant spectrum haplotype profile and may serve as a reference to interpret the modifications produced by external selective pressures or to compare with the landscapes of mutant spectra in complex in vivo environments. IMPORTANCE The study provides for the first time the haplotype profile and its variation in the course of virus adaptation to a cell culture environment in the absence of external selective constraints. The deep sequencing-based self-organized maps document a two-layer haplotype distribution with an ample basal platform and a lower number of protruding peaks. The results suggest an inferred intramutant spectrum fitness landscape structure that offers potential benefits for virus resilience to mutational inputs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Soledad Delgado
- Departamento de Sistemas Informáticos, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Sistemas Informáticos (ETSISI), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Celia Perales
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria-Fundación Jiménez Díaz University Hospital, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (IIS-FJD), Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Biología Molecular “Severo Ochoa” (CSIC-UAM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Carlos García-Crespo
- Centro de Biología Molecular “Severo Ochoa” (CSIC-UAM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - María Eugenia Soria
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria-Fundación Jiménez Díaz University Hospital, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (IIS-FJD), Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Biología Molecular “Severo Ochoa” (CSIC-UAM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Isabel Gallego
- Centro de Biología Molecular “Severo Ochoa” (CSIC-UAM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Ana Isabel de Ávila
- Centro de Biología Molecular “Severo Ochoa” (CSIC-UAM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Brenda Martínez-González
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria-Fundación Jiménez Díaz University Hospital, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (IIS-FJD), Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Lucía Vázquez-Sirvent
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria-Fundación Jiménez Díaz University Hospital, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (IIS-FJD), Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Cecilio López-Galíndez
- Unidad de Virología Molecular, Laboratorio de Referencia e Investigación en Retrovirus, Centro Nacional de Microbiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Majadahonda, Madrid, Spain
| | - Federico Morán
- Departamento de Bioquímica y Biología Molecular, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Esteban Domingo
- Centro de Biología Molecular “Severo Ochoa” (CSIC-UAM), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
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19
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McGee F, Hauri S, Novinger Q, Vucetic S, Levy RM, Carnevale V, Haldane A. The generative capacity of probabilistic protein sequence models. Nat Commun 2021; 12:6302. [PMID: 34728624 PMCID: PMC8563988 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26529-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2021] [Accepted: 09/23/2021] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Potts models and variational autoencoders (VAEs) have recently gained popularity as generative protein sequence models (GPSMs) to explore fitness landscapes and predict mutation effects. Despite encouraging results, current model evaluation metrics leave unclear whether GPSMs faithfully reproduce the complex multi-residue mutational patterns observed in natural sequences due to epistasis. Here, we develop a set of sequence statistics to assess the "generative capacity" of three current GPSMs: the pairwise Potts Hamiltonian, the VAE, and the site-independent model. We show that the Potts model's generative capacity is largest, as the higher-order mutational statistics generated by the model agree with those observed for natural sequences, while the VAE's lies between the Potts and site-independent models. Importantly, our work provides a new framework for evaluating and interpreting GPSM accuracy which emphasizes the role of higher-order covariation and epistasis, with broader implications for probabilistic sequence models in general.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisco McGee
- Center for Biophysics and Computational Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
- Institute for Computational Molecular Science, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
- Department of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
| | - Sandro Hauri
- Center for Hybrid Intelligence, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
- Department of Computer & Information Sciences, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
| | - Quentin Novinger
- Institute for Computational Molecular Science, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
- Department of Computer & Information Sciences, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
| | - Slobodan Vucetic
- Center for Hybrid Intelligence, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
- Department of Computer & Information Sciences, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
| | - Ronald M Levy
- Center for Biophysics and Computational Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
- Department of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
- Department of Physics, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
- Department of Chemistry, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA
| | - Vincenzo Carnevale
- Institute for Computational Molecular Science, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA.
- Department of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA.
| | - Allan Haldane
- Center for Biophysics and Computational Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA.
- Department of Chemistry, Temple University, Philadelphia, 19122, USA.
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20
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Van Egeren D, Novokhodko A, Stoddard M, Tran U, Zetter B, Rogers M, Pentelute BL, Carlson JM, Hixon M, Joseph-McCarthy D, Chakravarty A. Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0250780. [PMID: 33909660 PMCID: PMC8081162 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250780] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2021] [Accepted: 04/14/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 is the molecular target for many vaccines and antibody-based prophylactics aimed at bringing COVID-19 under control. Such a narrow molecular focus raises the specter of viral immune evasion as a potential failure mode for these biomedical interventions. With the emergence of new strains of SARS-CoV-2 with altered transmissibility and immune evasion potential, a critical question is this: how easily can the virus escape neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) targeting the spike RBD? To answer this question, we combined an analysis of the RBD structure-function with an evolutionary modeling framework. Our structure-function analysis revealed that epitopes for RBD-targeting nAbs overlap one another substantially and can be evaded by escape mutants with ACE2 affinities comparable to the wild type, that are observed in sequence surveillance data and infect cells in vitro. This suggests that the fitness cost of nAb-evading mutations is low. We then used evolutionary modeling to predict the frequency of immune escape before and after the widespread presence of nAbs due to vaccines, passive immunization or natural immunity. Our modeling suggests that SARS-CoV-2 mutants with one or two mildly deleterious mutations are expected to exist in high numbers due to neutral genetic variation, and consequently resistance to vaccines or other prophylactics that rely on one or two antibodies for protection can develop quickly -and repeatedly- under positive selection. Predicted resistance timelines are comparable to those of the decay kinetics of nAbs raised against vaccinal or natural antigens, raising a second potential mechanism for loss of immunity in the population. Strategies for viral elimination should therefore be diversified across molecular targets and therapeutic modalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Debra Van Egeren
- Department of Systems Biology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States of America
- Department of Data Science, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA, United States of America
- Stem Cell Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, United States of America
| | - Alexander Novokhodko
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | | | - Uyen Tran
- Fractal Therapeutics, Cambridge, MA, United States of America
| | - Bruce Zetter
- Vascular Biology Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, United States of America
| | - Michael Rogers
- Vascular Biology Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, United States of America
| | - Bradley L Pentelute
- Department of Chemistry, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States of America
| | | | - Mark Hixon
- Mark S. Hixon Consulting, LLC, San Diego, CA, United States of America
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21
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Sohail MS, Ahmed SF, Quadeer AA, McKay MR. In silico T cell epitope identification for SARS-CoV-2: Progress and perspectives. Adv Drug Deliv Rev 2021; 171:29-47. [PMID: 33465451 PMCID: PMC7832442 DOI: 10.1016/j.addr.2021.01.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2020] [Revised: 12/31/2020] [Accepted: 01/07/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Growing evidence suggests that T cells may play a critical role in combating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Hence, COVID-19 vaccines that can elicit a robust T cell response may be particularly important. The design, development and experimental evaluation of such vaccines is aided by an understanding of the landscape of T cell epitopes of SARS-CoV-2, which is largely unknown. Due to the challenges of identifying epitopes experimentally, many studies have proposed the use of in silico methods. Here, we present a review of the in silico methods that have been used for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes. These methods employ a diverse set of technical approaches, often rooted in machine learning. A performance comparison is provided based on the ability to identify a specific set of immunogenic epitopes that have been determined experimentally to be targeted by T cells in convalescent COVID-19 patients, shedding light on the relative performance merits of the different approaches adopted by the in silico studies. The review also puts forward perspectives for future research directions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Saqib Sohail
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
| | - Syed Faraz Ahmed
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
| | - Ahmed Abdul Quadeer
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China.
| | - Matthew R McKay
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China; Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China.
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22
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Sohail MS, Louie RHY, McKay MR, Barton JP. MPL resolves genetic linkage in fitness inference from complex evolutionary histories. Nat Biotechnol 2021; 39:472-479. [PMID: 33257862 PMCID: PMC8044047 DOI: 10.1038/s41587-020-0737-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2019] [Accepted: 10/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Genetic linkage causes the fate of new mutations in a population to be contingent on the genetic background on which they appear. This makes it challenging to identify how individual mutations affect fitness. To overcome this challenge, we developed marginal path likelihood (MPL), a method to infer selection from evolutionary histories that resolves genetic linkage. Validation on real and simulated data sets shows that MPL is fast and accurate, outperforming existing inference approaches. We found that resolving linkage is crucial for accurately quantifying selection in complex evolving populations, which we demonstrate through a quantitative analysis of intrahost HIV-1 evolution using multiple patient data sets. Linkage effects generated by variants that sweep rapidly through the population are particularly strong, extending far across the genome. Taken together, our results argue for the importance of resolving linkage in studies of natural selection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Saqib Sohail
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
| | - Raymond H Y Louie
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
- Institute for Advanced Study, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
- The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Medical Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Matthew R McKay
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China.
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China.
| | - John P Barton
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA, USA.
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23
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Ahmed SF, Quadeer AA, McKay MR. Preliminary Identification of Potential Vaccine Targets for the COVID-19 Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Based on SARS-CoV Immunological Studies. Viruses 2020; 12:E254. [PMID: 32106567 PMCID: PMC7150947 DOI: 10.3390/v12030254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 730] [Impact Index Per Article: 146.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2020] [Revised: 02/22/2020] [Accepted: 02/24/2020] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). There is an imminent need to better understand this new virus and to develop ways to control its spread. In this study, we sought to gain insights for vaccine design against SARS-CoV-2 by considering the high genetic similarity between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, which caused the outbreak in 2003, and leveraging existing immunological studies of SARS-CoV. By screening the experimentally-determined SARS-CoV-derived B cell and T cell epitopes in the immunogenic structural proteins of SARS-CoV, we identified a set of B cell and T cell epitopes derived from the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins that map identically to SARS-CoV-2 proteins. As no mutation has been observed in these identified epitopes among the 120 available SARS-CoV-2 sequences (as of 21 February 2020), immune targeting of these epitopes may potentially offer protection against this novel virus. For the T cell epitopes, we performed a population coverage analysis of the associated MHC alleles and proposed a set of epitopes that is estimated to provide broad coverage globally, as well as in China. Our findings provide a screened set of epitopes that can help guide experimental efforts towards the development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Syed Faraz Ahmed
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China;
| | - Ahmed A. Quadeer
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China;
| | - Matthew R. McKay
- Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China;
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
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