The megabiota are disproportionately important for biosphere functioning

Future changes in society and climate may strongly shape wild large-herbivore faunas across Europe

Restoring wild communities of large herbivores is critical for the conservation of biodiverse ecosystems, but environmental changes in the twenty-first century could drastically affect the availability of habitats. We projected future habitat dynamics for 18 wild large herbivores in Europe and the relative future potential patterns of species richness and assemblage mean body weight considering four alternative scenarios of socioeconomic development in human society and greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP5-RCP8.5). Under SSP1-RCP2.6, corresponding to a transition towards sustainable development, we found stable habitat suitability for most species and overall stable assemblage mean body weight compared to the present, with an average increase in species richness (in 2100: 3.03 ± 1.55 compared to today's 2.25 ± 1.31 species/area). The other scenarios are generally unfavourable for the conservation of wild large herbivores, although under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario there would be increase in species richness and assemblage mean body weight in some southern regions (e.g. + 62.86 kg mean body weight in Balkans/Greece). Our results suggest that a shift towards a sustainable socioeconomic development would overall provide the best prospect of our maintaining or even increasing the diversity of wild herbivore assemblages in Europe, thereby promoting trophic complexity and the potential to restore functioning and self-regulating ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Developing a predictive science of the biosphere requires the integration of scientific cultures

Increasing the speed of scientific progress is urgently needed to address the many challenges associated with the biosphere in the Anthropocene. Consequently, the critical question becomes: How can science most rapidly progress to address large, complex global problems? We suggest that the lag in the development of a more predictive science of the biosphere is not only because the biosphere is so much more complex, or because we do not have enough data, or are not doing enough experiments, but, in large part, because of unresolved tension between the three dominant scientific cultures that pervade the research community. We introduce and explain the concept of the three scientific cultures and present a novel analysis of their characteristics, supported by examples and a formal mathematical definition/representation of what this means and implies. The three cultures operate, to varying degrees, across all of science. However, within the biosciences, and in contrast to some of the other sciences, they remain relatively more separated, and their lack of integration has hindered their potential power and insight. Our solution to accelerating a broader, predictive science of the biosphere is to enhance integration of scientific cultures. The process of integration-Scientific Transculturalism-recognizes that the push for interdisciplinary research, in general, is just not enough. Unless these cultures of science are formally appreciated and their thinking iteratively integrated into scientific discovery and advancement, there will continue to be numerous significant challenges that will increasingly limit forecasting and prediction efforts.

Trophic rewilding as a restoration approach under emerging novel biosphere conditions

Rewilding is a restoration approach that aims to promote self-regulating complex ecosystems by restoring non-human ecological processes while reducing human control and pressures. Rewilding is forward-looking in that it aims to enhance functionality for biodiversity, accepting and indeed promoting the dynamic nature of ecosystems, rather than fixating on static composition or structure. Rewilding is thus especially relevant in our epoch of increasingly novel biosphere conditions, driven by strong human-induced global change. Here, we explore this hypothesis in the context of trophic rewilding - the restoration of trophic complexity mediated by wild, large-bodied animals, known as 'megafauna'. This focus reflects the strong ecological impacts of large-bodied animals, their widespread loss during the last 50,000 years and their high diversity and ubiquity in the preceding 50 million years. Restoring abundant, diverse, wild-living megafauna is expected to promote vegetation heterogeneity, seed dispersal, nutrient cycling and biotic microhabitats. These are fundamental drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem function and are likely to gain importance for maintaining a biodiverse biosphere under increasingly novel ecological conditions. Non-native megafauna species may contribute to these effects as ecological surrogates of extinct species or by promoting ecological functionality within novel assemblages. Trophic rewilding has strong upscaling potential via population growth and expansion of wild fauna. It is likely to facilitate biotic adaptation to changing climatic conditions and resilience to ecosystem collapse, and to curb some negative impacts of globalization, notably the dominance of invasive alien plants. Finally, we discuss the complexities of realizing the biodiversity benefits that trophic rewilding offers under novel biosphere conditions in a heavily populated world.

Exploring indirect effects of a classic trophic cascade between urchins and kelp on zooplankton and whales

Kelp forest trophic cascades have been extensively researched, yet indirect effects to the zooplankton prey base and gray whales have not been explored. We investigate the correlative patterns of a trophic cascade between bull kelp and purple sea urchins on gray whales and zooplankton in Oregon, USA. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), we assess (1) temporal dynamics of the four species across 8 years, and (2) possible trophic paths from urchins to kelp, kelp as habitat to zooplankton, and kelp and zooplankton to gray whales. Temporal GAMs revealed an increase in urchin coverage, with simultaneous decline in kelp condition, zooplankton abundance and gray whale foraging time. Trophic path GAMs, which tested for correlations between species, demonstrated that urchins and kelp were negatively correlated, while kelp and zooplankton were positively correlated. Gray whales showed nuanced and site-specific correlations with zooplankton in one site, and positive correlations with kelp condition in both sites. The negative correlation between the kelp-urchin trophic cascade and zooplankton resulted in a reduced prey base for gray whales. This research provides a new perspective on the vital role kelp forests may play across multiple trophic levels and interspecies linkages.

Land potential assessment and trend-analysis using 2000-2021 FAPAR monthly time-series at 250 m spatial resolution

The article presents results of using remote sensing images and machine learning to map and assess land potential based on time-series of potential Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) composites. Land potential here refers to the potential vegetation productivity in the hypothetical absence of short-term anthropogenic influence, such as intensive agriculture and urbanization. Knowledge on this ecological land potential could support the assessment of levels of land degradation as well as restoration potentials. Monthly aggregated FAPAR time-series of three percentiles (0.05, 0.50 and 0.95 probability) at 250 m spatial resolution were derived from the 8-day GLASS FAPAR V6 product for 2000-2021 and used to determine long-term trends in FAPAR, as well as to model potential FAPAR in the absence of human pressure. CCa 3 million training points sampled from 12,500 locations across the globe were overlaid with 68 bio-physical variables representing climate, terrain, landform, and vegetation cover, as well as several variables representing human pressure including: population count, cropland intensity, nightlights and a human footprint index. The training points were used in an ensemble machine learning model that stacks three base learners (extremely randomized trees, gradient descended trees and artificial neural network) using a linear regressor as meta-learner. The potential FAPAR was then projected by removing the impact of urbanization and intensive agriculture in the covariate layers. The results of strict cross-validation show that the global distribution of FAPAR can be explained with an R2 of 0.89, with the most important covariates being growing season length, forest cover indicator and annual precipitation. From this model, a global map of potential monthly FAPAR for the recent year (2021) was produced, and used to predict gaps in actual vs. potential FAPAR. The produced global maps of actual vs. potential FAPAR and long-term trends were each spatially matched with stable and transitional land cover classes. The assessment showed large negative FAPAR gaps (actual lower than potential) for classes: urban, needle-leave deciduous trees, and flooded shrub or herbaceous cover, while strong negative FAPAR trends were found for classes: urban, sparse vegetation and rainfed cropland. On the other hand, classes: irrigated or post-flooded cropland, tree cover mixed leaf type, and broad-leave deciduous showed largely positive trends. The framework allows land managers to assess potential land degradation from two aspects: as an actual declining trend in observed FAPAR and as a difference between actual and potential vegetation FAPAR.

Rewilding by large ungulates contributes to organic carbon storage in soils

The concept of rewilding, which focuses on managing ecosystem functions through self-regulation by restoring trophic interactions through introduced animal species with little human intervention, has gained increasing attention as a proactive and efficient approach to restoring ecosystems quickly and on a large scale. However, the science of rewilding has been criticized for being largely theory-based rather than evidence-based, with available data being geographically biased towards the Netherlands and Scandinavian countries, and a lack of objective data on rewilding effects on soil processes and C sequestration. In response to a call for data-driven experimental rewilding projects focused on national contexts, we collected unique data on the effects of large herbivore rewilding on soil properties from eight sites in the Czech Republic. These include sites with a wide range of edaphic characteristics that were grazed by Exmoor ponies, European bison, and back-bred Bos primigenius cattle (singly or in combination) for 2-6 years on areas ranging from ≈30 to ≈250 ha. Despite the relatively short duration of rewilding actions and considerable variability in the response rate of soil properties to grazing, our results indicate improved nutrient availability (evidenced by higher nitrification rate or higher soluble nitrogen concentration) and accelerated ecosystem metabolism (higher soil microbial biomass and dissolved carbon content). On longer-grazed pastures, rewilding contributed to soil carbon sequestration associated with increased water holding capacity and improved soil structure. However, other soil properties (reduced dissolved P concentration or total P content) showed signs of low P availability in the soils of the rewilding sites. Therefore, carcass retention should be considered where possible. Our data, although limited in number and geographic coverage, allow us to conclude that large ungulate rewilding has the potential to enhance soil carbon sequestration and related ecosystem services in rewilding areas. At the same time, we urge similar monitoring as an essential part of other rewilding projects, which will ultimately allow much more robust conclusions about the effects of this management on soils.

Faecal nutrient deposition of domestic and wild herbivores in an alpine grassland

The contribution of herbivores to ecosystem nutrient fluxes through dung deposition has the potential to, directly and indirectly, influence ecosystem functioning. This process can be particularly important in nutrient-limited ecosystems such as alpine systems. However, herbivore dung content (carbon, C; nitrogen, N; phosphorus, P; potassium, K) and stoichiometry (C/N) may differ among species due to differences in diet, seasonality, body type, feeding strategy, and/or digestive system with consequences for soil biogeochemistry. Here we explore how species, body size, and seasonality may result in differences in dung stoichiometry for four alpine herbivores (chamois, sheep, horse, and cattle). We found that herbivore dung nutrient content often varies among species as well as with body size, with the dung of small herbivores having larger C, N, and P faecal content. Seasonality also showed marked effects on faecal nutrient content, with a general pattern of decreasing levels of faecal P, N and an increase of C/N as the summer progresses following the loss of nutrient value of the vegetation. Moreover, we showed how herbivores play an important role as natural fertilizers of C, N, and P in our study area, especially cattle. Our study highlights the importance of considering the relative contribution of different herbivores to ecosystem nutrient fluxes in management practices, especially with ongoing changes in wild and domestic herbivore populations in alpine ecosystems.

Large females connect Atlantic cod spawning sites

The Earth's ecosystems are increasingly deprived of large animals. Global simulations suggest that this downsizing of nature has serious consequences for biosphere functioning. However, the historical loss of large animals means that it is now often impossible to secure empirical data revealing their true ecological importance. We tracked 465 mature Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) during their winter spawning season and show that large females (up to 114 centimeters in length), which are still found in mid-Norway, were characterized by more complex movement networks compared with smaller females. Large males were sparse but displayed similar movement patterns. Our finding implies that management programs promoting large fish will have positive impacts on population resilience by facilitating the continued use of a diversity of spawning habitats and the connectivity between them.

Climate change and land use threaten global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees

Across the globe, tree species are under high anthropogenic pressure. Risks of extinction are notably more severe for species with restricted ranges and distinct evolutionary histories. Here, we use a global dataset covering 41,835 species (65.1% of known tree species) to assess the spatial pattern of tree species' phylogenetic endemism, its macroecological drivers, and how future pressures may affect the conservation status of the identified hotspots. We found that low-to-mid latitudes host most endemism hotspots, with current climate being the strongest driver, and climatic stability across thousands to millions of years back in time as a major co-determinant. These hotspots are mostly located outside of protected areas and face relatively high land-use change and future climate change pressure. Our study highlights the risk from climate change for tree diversity and the necessity to strengthen conservation and restoration actions in global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees to avoid major future losses of tree diversity.

Tradeoffs between resources and risks shape the responses of a large carnivore to human disturbance

Wide-ranging carnivores experience tradeoffs between dynamic resource availabilities and heterogeneous risks from humans, with consequences for their ecological function and conservation outcomes. Yet, research investigating these tradeoffs across large carnivore distributions is rare. We assessed how resource availability and anthropogenic risks influence the strength of lion (Panthera leo) responses to disturbance using data from 31 sites across lions' contemporary range. Lions avoided human disturbance at over two-thirds of sites, though their responses varied depending on site-level characteristics. Lions were more likely to exploit human-dominated landscapes where resources were limited, indicating that resource limitation can outweigh anthropogenic risks and might exacerbate human-carnivore conflict. Lions also avoided human impacts by increasing their nocturnal activity more often at sites with higher production of cattle. The combined effects of expanding human impacts and environmental change threaten to simultaneously downgrade the ecological function of carnivores and intensify human-carnivore conflicts, escalating extinction risks for many species.

Megaherbivores provide biotic resistance against alien plant dominance

While human-driven biological invasions are rapidly spreading, finding scalable and effective control methods poses an unresolved challenge. Here, we assess whether megaherbivores-herbivores reaching ≥1,000 kg of body mass-offer a nature-based solution to plant invasions. Invasive plants are generally adapted to maximize vegetative growth. Megaherbivores, with broad dietary tolerances, could remove large biomass of established plants, facilitating new plant growth. We used a massive dataset obtained from 26,838 camera stations and 158,979 vegetation plots to assess the relationships between megaherbivores, native plants and alien plants across India (~121,330 km2). We found a positive relationship between megaherbivore abundance and native plant richness and abundance, and a concomitant reduction in alien plant abundance. This relationship was strongest in protected areas with midproductive ecosystem and high megaherbivore density but it was lost in areas where thicket-forming alien plants predominated (>40% cover). By incorporating the role of ecosystem productivity, plants traits and densities of megaherbivores on megaherbivore-vegetation relationships, our study highlights a function of megaherbivores in controlling alien plant proliferation and facilitating diverse native plants in invaded ecosystems. The study shows great potential for megafauna-based trophic rewilding as a nature-based solution to counteract dominance of plant invasions.

Large mammals and trees in eastern monsoonal China: anthropogenic losses since the Late Pleistocene and restoration prospects in the Anthropocene

Massive human-induced declines of large-sized animals and trees (megabiota) from the Late Pleistocene to the Anthropocene have resulted in downsized ecosystems across the globe, in which components and functions have been greatly simplified. In response, active restoration projects of extant large-sized species or functional substitutes are needed at large scales to promote ecological processes that are important for ecosystem self-regulation and biodiversity maintenance. Despite the desired global scope of such projects, they have received little attention in East Asia. Here, we synthesise the biogeographical and ecological knowledge of megabiota in ancient and modern China, with relevant data mostly located in eastern monsoonal China (EMC), aiming to assess its potential for restoring functionally intact ecosystems modulated by megabiota. We found that during the Late Pleistocene, 12 mammalian megafaunal (carnivores ≥15 kg and herbivores ≥500 kg) species disappeared from EMC: one carnivore Crocuta ultima (East Asian spotted hyena) and 11 herbivores including six megaherbivores (≥1000 kg). The relative importance of climate change and humans in driving these losses remains debated, despite accumulating evidence in favour of the latter. Later massive depletion of megafauna and large-sized (45-500 kg) herbivores has been closely associated with agricultural expansion and societal development, especially during the late Holocene. While forests rich in large timber trees (33 taxa in written records) were common in the region 2000-3000 years ago, millennial-long logging has resulted in considerable range contractions and at least 39 threatened species. The wide distribution of C. ultima, which likely favoured open or semi-open habitats (like extant spotted hyenas), suggests the existence of mosaic open and closed vegetation in the Late Pleistocene across EMC, in line with a few pollen-based vegetation reconstructions and potentially, or at least partially, reflecting herbivory by herbivorous megafauna. The widespread loss of megaherbivores may have strongly compromised seed dispersal for both megafruit (fleshy fruits with widths ≥40 mm) and non-megafruit plant species in EMC, especially in terms of extra-long-distance (>10 km) dispersal, which is critical for plant species that rely on effective biotic agents to track rapid climate change. The former occurrence of large mammals and trees have translated into rich material and non-material heritages passed down across generations. Several reintroduction projects have been implemented or are under consideration, with the case of Elaphurus davidianus a notable success in recovering wild populations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, although trophic interactions with native carnivorous megafauna have not yet been restored. Lessons of dealing with human-wildlife conflicts are key to public support for maintaining landscapes shared with megafauna and large herbivores in the human-dominated Anthropocene. Meanwhile, potential human-wildlife conflicts, e.g. public health risks, need to be scientifically informed and effectively reduced. The Chinese government's strong commitment to improved policies of ecological protection and restoration (e.g. ecological redlines and national parks) provides a solid foundation for a scaling-up contribution to the global scope needed for solving the crisis of biotic downsizing and ecosystem degradation.

Composition of cetacean communities worldwide shapes their contribution to ocean nutrient cycling

Defecation by large whales is known to fertilise oceans with nutrients, stimulating phytoplankton and ecosystem productivity. However, our current understanding of these processes is limited to a few species, nutrients and ecosystems. Here, we investigate the role of cetacean communities in the worldwide biological cycling of two major nutrients and six trace nutrients. We show that cetaceans release more nutrients in mesotrophic to eutrophic temperate waters than in oligotrophic tropical waters, mirroring patterns of ecosystem productivity. The released nutrient cocktails also vary geographically, driven by the composition of cetacean communities. The roles of small cetaceans, deep diving cetaceans and baleen whales differ quantitatively and functionally, with contributions of small cetaceans and deep divers exceeding those of large whales in some areas. The functional diversity of cetacean communities expands beyond their role as top predators to include their role as active nutrient vectors, which might be equally important to local ecosystem dynamics.

Widespread shifts in body size within populations and assemblages

Biotic responses to global change include directional shifts in organismal traits. Body size, an integrative trait that determines demographic rates and ecosystem functions, is thought to be shrinking in the Anthropocene. Here, we assessed the prevalence of body size change in six taxon groups across 5025 assemblage time series spanning 1960 to 2020. Using the Price equation to partition this change into within-species body size versus compositional changes, we detected prevailing decreases in body size through time driven primarily by fish, with more variable patterns in other taxa. We found that change in assemblage composition contributes more to body size changes than within-species trends, but both components show substantial variation in magnitude and direction. The biomass of assemblages remains quite stable as decreases in body size trade off with increases in abundance.

Feedback loops between 3D vegetation structure and ecological functions of animals

Ecosystems function in a series of feedback loops that can change or maintain vegetation structure. Vegetation structure influences the ecological niche space available to animals, shaping many aspects of behaviour and reproduction. In turn, animals perform ecological functions that shape vegetation structure. However, most studies concerning three-dimensional vegetation structure and animal ecology consider only a single direction of this relationship. Here, we review these separate lines of research and integrate them into a unified concept that describes a feedback mechanism. We also show how remote sensing and animal tracking technologies are now available at the global scale to describe feedback loops and their consequences for ecosystem functioning. An improved understanding of how animals interact with vegetation structure in feedback loops is needed to conserve ecosystems that face major disruptions in response to climate and land-use change.

Disruption of trait-environment relationships in African megafauna occurred in the middle Pleistocene

Mammalian megafauna have been critical to the functioning of Earth's biosphere for millions of years. However, since the Plio-Pleistocene, their biodiversity has declined concurrently with dramatic environmental change and hominin evolution. While these biodiversity declines are well-documented, their implications for the ecological function of megafaunal communities remain uncertain. Here, we adapt ecometric methods to evaluate whether the functional link between communities of herbivorous, eastern African megafauna and their environments (i.e., functional trait-environment relationships) was disrupted as biodiversity losses occurred over the past 7.4 Ma. Herbivore taxonomic and functional diversity began to decline during the Pliocene as open grassland habitats emerged, persisted, and expanded. In the mid-Pleistocene, grassland expansion intensified, and climates became more variable and arid. It was then that phylogenetic diversity declined, and the trait-environment relationships of herbivore communities shifted significantly. Our results divulge the varying implications of different losses in megafaunal biodiversity. Only the losses that occurred since the mid-Pleistocene were coincident with a disturbance to community ecological function. Prior diversity losses, conversely, occurred as the megafaunal species and trait pool narrowed towards those adapted to grassland environments.

Impacts of large herbivores on terrestrial ecosystems

Large herbivores play unique ecological roles and are disproportionately imperiled by human activity. As many wild populations dwindle towards extinction, and as interest grows in restoring lost biodiversity, research on large herbivores and their ecological impacts has intensified. Yet, results are often conflicting or contingent on local conditions, and new findings have challenged conventional wisdom, making it hard to discern general principles. Here, we review what is known about the ecosystem impacts of large herbivores globally, identify key uncertainties, and suggest priorities to guide research. Many findings are generalizable across ecosystems: large herbivores consistently exert top-down control of plant demography, species composition, and biomass, thereby suppressing fires and the abundance of smaller animals. Other general patterns do not have clearly defined impacts: large herbivores respond to predation risk but the strength of trophic cascades is variable; large herbivores move vast quantities of seeds and nutrients but with poorly understood effects on vegetation and biogeochemistry. Questions of the greatest relevance for conservation and management are among the least certain, including effects on carbon storage and other ecosystem functions and the ability to predict outcomes of extinctions and reintroductions. A unifying theme is the role of body size in regulating ecological impact. Small herbivores cannot fully substitute for large ones, and large-herbivore species are not functionally redundant - losing any, especially the largest, will alter net impact, helping to explain why livestock are poor surrogates for wild species. We advocate leveraging a broad spectrum of techniques to mechanistically explain how large-herbivore traits and environmental context interactively govern the ecological impacts of these animals.

Trait diversity shapes the carbon cycle

Trait evolution is shaped by carbon economics at the organismal level. Here, we expand this idea to the ecosystem level and show how the trait diversity of ecological communities influences the carbon cycle. Systematic shifts in trait diversity will likely trigger changes in the carbon cycle.

Global beta-diversity of angiosperm trees is shaped by Quaternary climate change

As Earth's climate has varied strongly through geological time, studying the impacts of past climate change on biodiversity helps to understand the risks from future climate change. However, it remains unclear how paleoclimate shapes spatial variation in biodiversity. Here, we assessed the influence of Quaternary climate change on spatial dissimilarity in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional composition among neighboring 200-kilometer cells (beta-diversity) for angiosperm trees worldwide. We found that larger glacial-interglacial temperature change was strongly associated with lower spatial turnover (species replacements) and higher nestedness (richness changes) components of beta-diversity across all three biodiversity facets. Moreover, phylogenetic and functional turnover was lower and nestedness higher than random expectations based on taxonomic beta-diversity in regions that experienced large temperature change, reflecting phylogenetically and functionally selective processes in species replacement, extinction, and colonization during glacial-interglacial oscillations. Our results suggest that future human-driven climate change could cause local homogenization and reduction in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity of angiosperm trees worldwide.

Mammal and tree diversity accumulate different types of soil organic matter in the northern Amazon

Diversity of plants and animals influence soil carbon through their contributions to soil organic matter (SOM). However, we do not know whether mammal and tree communities affect SOM composition in the same manner. This question is relevant because not all forms of carbon are equally resistant to mineralization by microbes and thus, relevant to carbon storage. We analyzed the elemental and molecular composition of 401 soil samples, with relation to the species richness of 83 mammal and tree communities at a landscape scale across 4.8 million hectares in the northern Amazon. We found opposite effects of mammal and tree richness over SOM composition. Mammal diversity is related to SOM rich in nitrogen, sulfur and iron whereas tree diversity is related to SOM rich in aliphatic and carbonyl compounds. These results help us to better understand the role of biodiversity in the carbon cycle and its implications for climate change mitigation.

Demographic synthesis for global tree species conservation

Conserving the tree species of the world requires syntheses on which tree species are most vulnerable to pressing threats, such as climate change, invasive pests and pathogens, or selective logging. Here, we review the population and forest dynamics models that, when parameterized with data from population studies, forest inventories, or tree rings, have been used for identifying life-history strategies of species and threat-related changes in population demography and dynamics. The available evidence suggests that slow-growing and/or long-lived species are the most vulnerable. However, a lack of comparative, multi-species studies still challenges more precise predictions of the vulnerability of tree species to threats. Improving data coverage for mortality and recruitment, and accounting for interactions among threats, would greatly advance vulnerability assessments for conservation prioritizations of trees worldwide.

Comparing management strategies for conserving communities of climate-threatened species with a stochastic metacommunity model

Many species are shifting their ranges to keep pace with climate change, but habitat fragmentation and limited dispersal could impede these range shifts. In the case of climate-vulnerable foundation species such as tropical reef corals and temperate forest trees, such limitations might put entire communities at risk of extinction. Restoring connectivity through corridors, stepping-stones or enhanced quality of existing patches could prevent the extinction of several species, but dispersal-limited species might not benefit if other species block their dispersal. Alternatively, managers might relocate vulnerable species between habitats through assisted migration, but this is generally a species-by-species approach. To evaluate the relative efficacy of these strategies, we simulated the climate-tracking of species in randomized competitive metacommunities with alternative management interventions. We found that corridors and assisted migration were the most effective strategies at reducing extinction. Assisted migration was especially effective at reducing the extinction likelihood for short-dispersing species, but it often required moving several species repeatedly. Assisted migration was more effective at reducing extinction in environments with higher stochasticity, and corridors were more effective at reducing extinction in environments with lower stochasticity. We discuss the application of these approaches to an array of systems ranging from tropical corals to temperate forests.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.

Human pressure drives biodiversity-multifunctionality relationships in large Neotropical wetlands

Many studies have shown that biodiversity regulates multiple ecological functions that are needed to maintain the productivity of a variety of ecosystem types. What is unknown is how human activities may alter the 'multifunctionality' of ecosystems through both direct impacts on ecosystems and indirect effects mediated by the loss of multifaceted biodiversity. Using an extensive database of 72 lakes spanning four large Neotropical wetlands in Brazil, we demonstrate that species richness and functional diversity across multiple larger (fish and macrophytes) and smaller (microcrustaceans, rotifers, protists and phytoplankton) groups of aquatic organisms are positively associated with ecosystem multifunctionality. Whereas the positive association between smaller organisms and multifunctionality broke down with increasing human pressure, this positive relationship was maintained for larger organisms despite the increase in human pressure. Human pressure impacted multifunctionality both directly and indirectly through reducing species richness and functional diversity of multiple organismal groups. These findings provide further empirical evidence about the importance of aquatic biodiversity for maintaining wetland multifunctionality. Despite the key role of biodiversity, human pressure reduces the diversity of multiple groups of aquatic organisms, eroding their positive impacts on a suite of ecological functions that sustain wetlands.

Harnessing the microbiome to prevent global biodiversity loss

Global biodiversity loss and mass extinction of species are two of the most critical environmental issues the world is currently facing, resulting in the disruption of various ecosystems central to environmental functions and human health. Microbiome-targeted interventions, such as probiotics and microbiome transplants, are emerging as potential options to reverse deterioration of biodiversity and increase the resilience of wildlife and ecosystems. However, the implementation of these interventions is urgently needed. We summarize the current concepts, bottlenecks and ethical aspects encompassing the careful and responsible management of ecosystem resources using the microbiome (termed microbiome stewardship) to rehabilitate organisms and ecosystem functions. We propose a real-world application framework to guide environmental and wildlife probiotic applications. This framework details steps that must be taken in the upscaling process while weighing risks against the high toll of inaction. In doing so, we draw parallels with other aspects of contemporary science moving swiftly in the face of urgent global challenges.

High exposure of global tree diversity to human pressure

Safeguarding Earth's tree diversity is a conservation priority due to the importance of trees for biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services such as carbon sequestration. Here, we improve the foundation for effective conservation of global tree diversity by analyzing a recently developed database of tree species covering 46,752 species. We quantify range protection and anthropogenic pressures for each species and develop conservation priorities across taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity dimensions. We also assess the effectiveness of several influential proposed conservation prioritization frameworks to protect the top 17% and top 50% of tree priority areas. We find that an average of 50.2% of a tree species' range occurs in 110-km grid cells without any protected areas (PAs), with 6,377 small-range tree species fully unprotected, and that 83% of tree species experience nonnegligible human pressure across their range on average. Protecting high-priority areas for the top 17% and 50% priority thresholds would increase the average protected proportion of each tree species' range to 65.5% and 82.6%, respectively, leaving many fewer species (2,151 and 2,010) completely unprotected. The priority areas identified for trees match well to the Global 200 Ecoregions framework, revealing that priority areas for trees would in large part also optimize protection for terrestrial biodiversity overall. Based on range estimates for >46,000 tree species, our findings show that a large proportion of tree species receive limited protection by current PAs and are under substantial human pressure. Improved protection of biodiversity overall would also strongly benefit global tree diversity.

Anthropogenic disruptions to longstanding patterns of trophic-size structure in vertebrates

Diet and body mass are inextricably linked in vertebrates: while herbivores and carnivores have converged on much larger sizes, invertivores and omnivores are, on average, much smaller, leading to a roughly U-shaped relationship between body size and trophic guild. Although this U-shaped trophic-size structure is well documented in extant terrestrial mammals, whether this pattern manifests across diverse vertebrate clades and biomes is unknown. Moreover, emergence of the U-shape over geological time and future persistence are unknown. Here we compiled a comprehensive dataset of diet and body size spanning several vertebrate classes and show that the U-shaped pattern is taxonomically and biogeographically universal in modern vertebrate groups, except for marine mammals and seabirds. We further found that, for terrestrial mammals, this U-shape emerged by the Palaeocene and has thus persisted for at least 66 million years. Yet disruption of this fundamental trophic-size structure in mammals appears likely in the next century, based on projected extinctions. Actions to prevent declines in the largest animals will sustain the functioning of Earth's wild ecosystems and biomass energy distributions that have persisted through deep time.

Demographic Reconstruction of Antarctic Fur Seals Supports the Krill Surplus Hypothesis

Much debate surrounds the importance of top-down and bottom-up effects in the Southern Ocean, where the harvesting of over two million whales in the mid twentieth century is thought to have produced a massive surplus of Antarctic krill. This excess of krill may have allowed populations of other predators, such as seals and penguins, to increase, a top-down hypothesis known as the ‘krill surplus hypothesis’. However, a lack of pre-whaling population baselines has made it challenging to investigate historical changes in the abundance of the major krill predators in relation to whaling. Therefore, we used reduced representation sequencing and a coalescent-based maximum composite likelihood approach to reconstruct the recent demographic history of the Antarctic fur seal, a pinniped that was hunted to the brink of extinction by 18th and 19th century sealers. In line with the known history of this species, we found support for a demographic model that included a substantial reduction in population size around the time period of sealing. Furthermore, maximum likelihood estimates from this model suggest that the recovered, post-sealing population at South Georgia may have been around two times larger than the pre-sealing population. Our findings lend support to the krill surplus hypothesis and illustrate the potential of genomic approaches to shed light on long-standing questions in population biology.

Leveraging social media and deep learning to detect rare megafauna in video surveys

Deep learning has become a key tool for the automated monitoring of animal populations with video surveys. However, obtaining large numbers of images to train such models is a major challenge for rare and elusive species because field video surveys provide few sightings. We designed a method that takes advantage of videos accumulated on social media for training deep-learning models to detect rare megafauna species in the field. We trained convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with social media images and tested them on images collected from field surveys. We applied our method to aerial video surveys of dugongs (Dugong dugon) in New Caledonia (southwestern Pacific). CNNs trained with 1303 social media images yielded 25% false positives and 38% false negatives when tested on independent field video surveys. Incorporating a small number of images from New Caledonia (equivalent to 12% of social media images) in the training data set resulted in a nearly 50% decrease in false negatives. Our results highlight how and the extent to which images collected on social media can offer a solid basis for training deep-learning models for rare megafauna detection and that the incorporation of a few images from the study site further boosts detection accuracy. Our method provides a new generation of deep-learning models that can be used to rapidly and accurately process field video surveys for the monitoring of rare megafauna.

Effectiveness of protection areas in safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem services in Tibet Autonomous Region

The Tibet Autonomous Region of China constitutes a unique and fragile ecosystem that is increasingly influenced by development and global climate change. To protect biodiversity and ecosystem services in Tibet, the Chinese government established a system of nature reserves at a significant cost; however, the effectiveness of nature reserves at protecting both-biodiversity and ecosystem service functions in Tibet is not clear. To determine the success of existing nature reserves, we determined importance areas for the conservation of mammal, plant, bird, amphibian, and reptile species, and for the protection of ecosystem service functions. The results indicated that important conservation areas for endangered plants were mainly distributed in the southern part of Nyingchi City, and for endangered animals, in the southern part of Nyingchi and Shannan Cities. Extremely important conservation areas for ecosystem service functions of carbon sequestration, water and soil protection, and flood regulation were mainly distributed in the southern part of Nyingchi and Shannan Cities, northern and southeastern parts of Nagqu City, and southern part of Ngari area. Based on an analysis of spatial overlap in protection areas, we conclude that existing natural reserves need to be expanded, and new ones need to be established to better protect biodiversity in Tibet Autonomous Region.

The Combined Effects of Warming and Body Size on the Stability of Predator-Prey Interactions

Environmental temperature and body size are two prominent drivers of predation. Despite the ample evidence of their independent effects, the combined impact of temperature and predator-prey body size ratio on the strength and stability of trophic interactions is not fully understood. We experimentally tested how water temperature alters the functional response and population stability of dragonfly nymphs (Cordulegaster boltonii) feeding on freshwater amphipods (Gammarus pulex) across a gradient of their body size ratios. Attack coefficients were highest for small predators feeding on small prey at low temperatures, but shifted toward the largest predators feeding on larger prey in warmer environments. Handling time appeared to decrease with increasing predator and prey body size in the cold environment, but increase at higher temperatures. These findings indicate interactive effects of temperature and body size on functional responses. There was also a negative effect of warming on the stability of predator and prey populations, but this was counteracted by a larger predator-prey body size ratio at higher temperatures. Here, a greater Hill exponent reduced feeding at low prey densities when predators were much larger than their prey, enhancing the persistence of both predator and prey populations in the warmer environment. These experimental findings provide new mechanistic insights into the destabilizing effect of warming on trophic interactions and the key role of predator-prey body size ratios in mitigating these effects.

Global response of fire activity to late Quaternary grazer extinctions

[Figure: see text].

Baleen whale prey consumption based on high-resolution foraging measurements

Baleen whales influence their ecosystems through immense prey consumption and nutrient recycling^1-3. It is difficult to accurately gauge the magnitude of their current or historic ecosystem role without measuring feeding rates and prey consumed. To date, prey consumption of the largest species has been estimated using metabolic models^3-9 based on extrapolations that lack empirical validation. Here, we used tags deployed on seven baleen whale (Mysticeti) species (n = 321 tag deployments) in conjunction with acoustic measurements of prey density to calculate prey consumption at daily to annual scales from the Atlantic, Pacific, and Southern Oceans. Our results suggest that previous studies^3-9 have underestimated baleen whale prey consumption by threefold or more in some ecosystems. In the Southern Ocean alone, we calculate that pre-whaling populations of mysticetes annually consumed 430 million tonnes of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), twice the current estimated total biomass of E. superba¹⁰, and more than twice the global catch of marine fisheries today¹¹. Larger whale populations may have supported higher productivity in large marine regions through enhanced nutrient recycling: our findings suggest mysticetes recycled 1.2 × 10⁴ tonnes iron yr^-1 in the Southern Ocean before whaling compared to 1.2 × 10³ tonnes iron yr^-1 recycled by whales today. The recovery of baleen whales and their nutrient recycling services^2,3,7 could augment productivity and restore ecosystem function lost during 20th century whaling^12,13.

The Relative Importance of "Cooperative Context" and Kinship in Structuring Cooperative Behavior : A Comparative Study of Saami Reindeer Herders

Kin relations have a strong theoretical and empirical basis for explaining cooperative behavior. Nevertheless, there is growing recognition that context—the cooperative environment of an individual—also shapes the willingness of individuals to cooperate. For nomadic pastoralists in Norway, cooperation among both kin and non-kin is an essential predictor for success. The northern parts of the country are characterized by a history of herder-herder competition exacerbating between-herder conflict, lack of trust, and subsequent coordination problems. In contrast, because of a history of herder-farmer competition, southern Norway is characterized by high levels of between-herder coordination and trust. This comparative study investigates the relative importance of “cooperative context” and kinship in structuring cooperative behavior using an experimental gift game. The main findings from this study were that in the South, a high level of cooperation around an individual pushes gifts to be distributed evenly among other herders. Nevertheless, kinship matters, since close kin give and receive larger gifts. In contrast, kinship seems to be the main factor affecting gift distribution in the North. Herders in the North are also concerned with distributing gifts equally, albeit limiting them to close kin: the level of intragroup cooperation drives gifts to be distributed evenly among other closely related herders. The observed regional contrasts in cooperative decisions fit with the different historical levels of conflict and trust in the two regions: whereas herders in the South are affected by both cooperative context and kinship, kinship seems to be the main determinant of cooperation in the North.

Can large herbivores enhance ecosystem carbon persistence?

There is growing interest in aligning the wildlife conservation and restoration agenda with climate change mitigation goals. However, the presence of large herbivores tends to reduce aboveground biomass in some open-canopy ecosystems, leading to the possibility that large herbivore restoration may negatively influence ecosystem carbon storage. Belowground carbon storage is often ignored in these systems, despite the wide recognition of soils as the largest actively-cycling terrestrial carbon pool. Here, we suggest a shift away from a main focus on vegetation carbon stocks, towards inclusion of whole ecosystem carbon persistence, in future assessments of large herbivore effects on long-term carbon storage. Failure to do so may lead to counterproductive biodiversity and climate impacts of land management actions.

High aboveground carbon stock of African tropical montane forests

Tropical forests store 40-50 per cent of terrestrial vegetation carbon¹. However, spatial variations in aboveground live tree biomass carbon (AGC) stocks remain poorly understood, in particular in tropical montane forests². Owing to climatic and soil changes with increasing elevation³, AGC stocks are lower in tropical montane forests compared with lowland forests². Here we assemble and analyse a dataset of structurally intact old-growth forests (AfriMont) spanning 44 montane sites in 12 African countries. We find that montane sites in the AfriMont plot network have a mean AGC stock of 149.4 megagrams of carbon per hectare (95% confidence interval 137.1-164.2), which is comparable to lowland forests in the African Tropical Rainforest Observation Network⁴ and about 70 per cent and 32 per cent higher than averages from plot networks in montane^2,5,6 and lowland⁷ forests in the Neotropics, respectively. Notably, our results are two-thirds higher than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change default values for these forests in Africa⁸. We find that the low stem density and high abundance of large trees of African lowland forests⁴ is mirrored in the montane forests sampled. This carbon store is endangered: we estimate that 0.8 million hectares of old-growth African montane forest have been lost since 2000. We provide country-specific montane forest AGC stock estimates modelled from our plot network to help to guide forest conservation and reforestation interventions. Our findings highlight the need for conserving these biodiverse^9,10 and carbon-rich ecosystems.

A methodological roadmap to quantify animal-vectored spatial ecosystem subsidies

Energy, nutrients and organisms move over landscapes, connecting ecosystems across space and time. Meta-ecosystem theory investigates the emerging properties of local ecosystems coupled spatially by these movements of organisms and matter, by explicitly tracking exchanges of multiple substances across ecosystem borders. To date, meta-ecosystem research has focused mostly on abiotic flows-neglecting biotic nutrient flows. However, recent work has indicated animals act as spatial nutrient vectors when they transport nutrients across landscapes in the form of excreta, egesta and their own bodies. Partly due to its high level of abstraction, there are few empirical tests of meta-ecosystem theory. Furthermore, while animals may be viewed as important mediators of ecosystem functions, better integration of tools is needed to develop predictive insights of their relative roles and impacts on diverse ecosystems. We present a methodological roadmap that explains how to do such integration by discussing how to combine insights from movement, foraging and ecosystem ecology to develop a coherent understanding of animal-vectored nutrient transport on meta-ecosystems processes. We discuss how the slate of newly developed technologies and methods-tracking devices, mechanistic movement models, diet reconstruction techniques and remote sensing-that when integrated have the potential to advance the quantification of animal-vectored nutrient flows and increase the predictive power of meta-ecosystem theory. We demonstrate that by integrating novel and established tools of animal ecology, ecosystem ecology and remote sensing, we can begin to identify and quantify animal-mediated nutrient translocation by large animals. We also provide conceptual examples that show how our proposed integration of methodologies can help investigate ecosystem impacts of large animal movement. We conclude by describing practical advancements to understanding cross-ecosystem contributions of animals on the move. Understanding the mechanisms by which animals shape ecosystem dynamics is important for ongoing conservation, rewilding and restoration initiatives around the world, and for developing more accurate models of ecosystem nutrient budgets. Our roadmap will enable ecologists to better qualify and quantify animal-mediated nutrient translocation for animals on the move.

Resistance of African tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly

The responses of tropical forests to environmental change are critical uncertainties in predicting the future impacts of climate change. The positive phase of the 2015-2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation resulted in unprecedented heat and low precipitation in the tropics with substantial impacts on the global carbon cycle. The role of African tropical forests is uncertain as their responses to short-term drought and temperature anomalies have yet to be determined using on-the-ground measurements. African tropical forests may be particularly sensitive because they exist in relatively dry conditions compared with Amazonian or Asian forests, or they may be more resistant because of an abundance of drought-adapted species. Here, we report responses of structurally intact old-growth lowland tropical forests inventoried within the African Tropical Rainforest Observatory Network (AfriTRON). We use 100 long-term inventory plots from six countries each measured at least twice prior to and once following the 2015-2016 El Niño event. These plots experienced the highest temperatures and driest conditions on record. The record temperature did not significantly reduce carbon gains from tree growth or significantly increase carbon losses from tree mortality, but the record drought did significantly decrease net carbon uptake. Overall, the long-term biomass increase of these forests was reduced due to the El Niño event, but these plots remained a live biomass carbon sink (0.51 ± 0.40 Mg C ha-1 y-1) despite extreme environmental conditions. Our analyses, while limited to African tropical forests, suggest they may be more resistant to climatic extremes than Amazonian and Asian forests.

Universal rules of life: metabolic rates, biological times and the equal fitness paradigm

Here we review and extend the equal fitness paradigm (EFP) as an important step in developing and testing a synthetic theory of ecology and evolution based on energy and metabolism. The EFP states that all organisms are equally fit at steady state, because they allocate the same quantity of energy, ~ 22.4 kJ/g/generation to the production of offspring. On the one hand, the EFP may seem tautological, because equal fitness is necessary for the origin and persistence of biodiversity. On the other hand, the EFP reflects universal laws of life: how biological metabolism - the uptake, transformation and allocation of energy - links ecological and evolutionary patterns and processes across levels of organisation from: (1) structure and function of individual organisms, (2) life history and dynamics of populations, and (3) interactions and coevolution of species in ecosystems. The physics and biology of metabolism have facilitated the evolution of millions of species with idiosyncratic anatomy, physiology, behaviour and ecology but also with many shared traits and tradeoffs that reflect the single origin and universal rules of life.

Erosion of global functional diversity across the tree of life

Although one-quarter of plant and vertebrate species are threatened with extinction, little is known about the potential effect of extinctions on the global diversity of ecological strategies. Using trait and phylogenetic information for more than 75,000 species of vascular plants, mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and freshwater fish, we characterized the global functional spectra of each of these groups. Mapping extinction risk within these spectra showed that larger species with slower pace of life are universally threatened. Simulated extinction scenarios exposed extensive internal reorganizations in the global functional spectra, which were larger than expected by chance for all groups, and particularly severe for mammals and amphibians. Considering the disproportionate importance of the largest species for ecological processes, our results emphasize the importance of actions to prevent the extinction of the megabiota.

A remote sensing derived data set of 100 million individual tree crowns for the National Ecological Observatory Network

Forests provide biodiversity, ecosystem, and economic services. Information on individual trees is important for understanding forest ecosystems but obtaining individual-level data at broad scales is challenging due to the costs and logistics of data collection. While advances in remote sensing techniques allow surveys of individual trees at unprecedented extents, there remain technical challenges in turning sensor data into tangible information. Using deep learning methods, we produced an open-source data set of individual-level crown estimates for 100 million trees at 37 sites across the United States surveyed by the National Ecological Observatory Network's Airborne Observation Platform. Each canopy tree crown is represented by a rectangular bounding box and includes information on the height, crown area, and spatial location of the tree. These data have the potential to drive significant expansion of individual-level research on trees by facilitating both regional analyses and cross-region comparisons encompassing forest types from most of the United States.

Biodiversity Conservation and the Earth System: Mind the Gap

One of the most striking human impacts on global biodiversity is the ongoing depletion of large vertebrates from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent work suggests this loss of megafauna can affect processes at biome or Earth system scales with potentially serious impacts on ecosystem structure and function, ecosystem services, and biogeochemical cycles. We argue that our contemporary approach to biodiversity conservation focuses on spatial scales that are too small to adequately address these impacts. We advocate a new global approach to address this conservation gap, which must enable megafaunal populations to recover to functionally relevant densities. We conclude that re-establishing biome and Earth system functions needs to become an urgent global priority for conservation science and policy.

Long-term collapse in fruit availability threatens Central African forest megafauna

Afrotropical forests host much of the world's remaining megafauna, although these animals are confined to areas where direct human influences are low. We used a rare long-term dataset of tree reproduction and a photographic database of forest elephants to assess food availability and body condition of an emblematic megafauna species at Lopé National Park, Gabon. Our analysis reveals an 81% decline in fruiting over a 32-year period (1986-2018) and an 11% decline in body condition of fruit-dependent forest elephants from 2008 to 2018. Fruit famine in one of the last strongholds for African forest elephants should raise concern about the ability of this species and other fruit-dependent megafauna to persist in the long term, with potential consequences for broader ecosystem and biosphere functioning.