Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

Climate change promotes harmful algal blooms in China's lakes and reservoirs despite significant nutrient control efforts

The increasing frequency and magnitude of harmful algal blooms (HABs) threatens the integrity of aquatic ecosystem functioning and human health worldwide. Nutrient reduction strategies have been widely used to mitigate HABs, but their efficiency in light of on-going changes in climate remains unclear. Here, we assembled an 18-year (2005-2022) national water quality dataset for 97 lakes across China. We examined the dynamics of HABs and their response to nutrient reduction under historical climate change trends using a combination of statistical and process-based modeling. The results revealed an increase in HABs despite a widespread decline in ambient nutrient levels, with 80.5 % of lakes experiencing a decline in phosphorus but 61.8 % displaying an increase in Chlorophyll a concentrations. We attributed this counterintuitive trend to climatic warming, which can hinder the mitigation of HABs until the ambient nutrients reach sufficiently low levels. The extent of HAB promotion by warming varied spatially, with a distinctly greater proliferation in China's lower-latitude lakes (<35°N), primarily due to the prevailing warmer temperatures. Notwithstanding the persistence of HABs in China's lakes, national-scale modeling suggests that nutrient loading control remains valuable in protecting our water resources, as the HAB risk would have been 32.6 % higher due to climate change. The anticipated future nutrient reduction efforts in China are expected to alleviate higher latitude lakes from frequent HAB occurrences, but lower latitude lakes will still face considerable HAB risks. Our national-scale assessment demonstrates a variant efficiency of nutrient reduction in offsetting HAB risks amid rapid climate change, and highlights the need of adaptively enhancing our mitigation strategies in response to the ever-changing ecological conditions.

Optimizing Watershed Land Use to Achieve the Benefits of Lake Carbon Sinks while Maintaining Water Quality

Greenhouse gas emissions and water quality decline are two major issues currently affecting lakes worldwide. Determining how to control both greenhouse gas emissions and water quality decline is a long-term challenge. We compiled data on the annual average carbon dioxide (CO2) flux and water quality parameters for 422 global lakes, revealing that 82.42% of the lakes act as carbon sources and that 66.56% have experienced water quality deterioration. Carbon sources and eutrophication trends were observed for lakes from the 1990s to 2020s, with further deterioration expected over the next 80 years. Unmanaged land use change in lake watersheds could exacerbate the CO2 flux into lakes and water quality degradation. In this study, a watershed land use planning (WLUP) framework was established, and a 24.83% reduction in the CO2 flux into lake water, a 5.07% reduction in chlorophyll a (Chl-a), a 4.70% reduction in total phosphorus, and a 12.92% increase in Secchi depth were achieved. The WLUP framework identifies Asia and Europe as the regions experiencing the greatest demands for land use transformation, where optimization leads to the most significant improvements. Metagenomic analysis revealed that forests enhance carbon fixation and that grasslands reduce carbon degradation and phosphorus metabolism in lake watersheds, explaining and supporting the possibility of WLUP. This work provides a win-win solution for improving CO2 fluxes and water quality in global lakes to mitigate the effects of climate change and promote lake protection.

Effect of seasonal anoxia on geochemical cycling in a stratified pond: Comparison to cooler pond conditions 40 years ago

Seasonal stratification in temperate lakes deeper than a few meters creates favorable conditions for pronounced vertical redox zones, often resulting in anaerobic hypolimnions and significant geochemical changes. This study examined thermocline formation and trace element behavior in a seasonally stratified pond amid rising air temperatures. Over two years, data were collected from Pond B at the US Department of Energy Savannah River Site in Aiken, South Carolina. Pond B, a man-made monomictic reservoir, received cooling water from a nuclear reactor from 1961 to 1964. Strong thermal stratification forms a distinct thermocline in May and progresses downward until November. Compared to the 1980s, this study shows a delayed onset and extended duration of stratification. The prolonged summer stratification reduces deep water oxygen replenishment, extending hypoxic conditions. Trace and major elements sampled in the water column revealed strong correlations between As, Fe, and Mn profiles, with concentrations increasing by 1-2 orders of magnitude in the anaerobic hypolimnion. This period captured the seasonal transition from winter mixing to summer stratification to fall overturn. Under anoxic conditions, Fe(III) reduces to Fe(II) in the sediment, releasing dissolved iron into the water column. The extended anoxic periods likely promoted arsenic release from sediments. Prolonged anoxia may enhance arsenic mobilization and solubility in the lake. This study illustrates how climate-induced changes in seasonal stratification of contaminated waters can convert contaminant sinks into sources, offering insights into the cycling of arsenic and other dissolved ions in stratified lakes and their implications for water quality management.

Lake morphology and meteorological conditions impact stratification of saline lakes in the Atacama Desert

Saline lakes exist in various morphologies within salar environments, occurring as ephemeral to persistent bodies of water despite evaporative conditions. Salar environments are often characterized by strong diurnal fluctuations in temperature, UV irradiation, and wind speed, however, the extent to which these meteorological conditions impact saline lakes with different morphological characteristics has yet to be investigated. Here, we evaluate the impacts of diurnal changes in wind speed and wind direction on lake water temperature, electrical conductivity, alkalinity, and stable isotope ratios of hydrogen (δ2H), oxygen (δ18O), and sulfur (δ34SSO4) in two Na-Cl saline lakes in the Salar de Llamara (Atacama Desert, Northern Chile) with different morphologies. Results indicate that water masses in the relatively deeper (~ 0.6 m) steep-sided lake with crystalline lake bottom remained stratified despite the nearly order of magnitude increase in diurnal wind speed, while waters in the relatively shallow (< 0.2 m), gently-sloping lake colonized by microbial mats were well-mixed. Conditions in the shallow, gently-sloping lake were heterogeneous, with diurnal variations approximating 15.6% and 23.9% of known seasonal ranges in temperature and electrical conductivity, respectively. Consequently, the chemistry of shallow, gently-sloping saline lake environments is dynamic on diurnal time scales, indicating that resident microbial communities tolerate a greater range in environmental conditions than previously appreciated. Results suggest that the impacts of diurnal changes in meteorological conditions on saline lake stratification depend on lake morphology, an observation with implications for patterns of mineral deposition in salar environments.

Enhanced heating effect of lakes under global warming

Lakes play a crucial role in shaping both local and regional climates through heat exchange with the atmosphere. Amid global climate change, these interactions have undergone significant shifts. However, our understanding of the global heat release from lakes to the atmosphere, and its future trajectory, remains limited. In this study, we investigate changes in global lake heat release patterns and identify an amplified increase in heat release, particularly in mid to high latitudes (>45°N). This amplification is linked with a feedback mechanism, where the reduction in lake ice cover not only reduces the insulating effect between the warmer lake water and the colder atmosphere but also leads to increased heat absorption by lakes. As a result, lakes in mid-high latitudes experience a greater relative increase in heat release, primarily through upward thermal radiation, compared to lakes at lower latitudes with comparable surface water temperature increases. Additionally, seasonal variations in latent heat flux intensify the heat release during warmer seasons compared to colder ones. Future projections suggest substantially greater heat release compared to historical trends.

Subsurface heatwaves in lakes

Lake heatwaves (extreme hot water events) can substantially disrupt aquatic ecosystems. Although surface heatwaves are well studied, their vertical structures within lakes remain largely unexplored. Here we analyse the characteristics of subsurface lake heatwaves (extreme hot events occurring below the surface) using a spatiotemporal modelling framework. Our findings reveal that subsurface heatwaves are frequent, often longer lasting but less intense than surface events. Deep-water heatwaves (bottom heatwaves) have increased in frequency (7.2 days decade-1), duration (2.1 days decade-1) and intensity (0.2 °C days decade-1) over the past 40 years. Moreover, vertically compounding heatwaves, where extreme heat occurs simultaneously at the surface and bottom, have risen by 3.3 days decade-1. By the end of the century, changes in heatwave patterns, particularly under high emissions, are projected to intensify. These findings highlight the need for subsurface monitoring to fully understand and predict the ecological impacts of lake heatwaves.

Artificial destratification options for reservoir management

Reservoir stratification impacts reservoir and downstream water quality, creating complex management challenges driven by interactions between hydrodynamics, weather patterns, and nutrient dynamics. Artificial destratification is one technique used to ameliorate the impacts of stratified reservoirs, with bubble plumes or mechanical mixers being the primary methods employed. This global review assessed 138 bubble plume and mechanical mixer artificial destratification systems installed in 114 reservoirs to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of each method. Destratification systems were assessed in terms of their effectiveness in breaking thermal stratification and consequently mitigating cold water pollution, increasing dissolved oxygen concentrations throughout the water column, reducing the concentration of soluble metals, and reducing (potentially toxic) cyanobacteria populations. Bubble plume destratification was found to be more effective than mechanical mixing at mitigating the impacts of thermal stratification. Successful thermal destratification was closely linked to subsequent increases in dissolved oxygen concentrations and decreases in manganese and iron concentrations. Mixed results were observed for the reduction of cyanobacteria populations from artificial destratification; however, a correlation was observed between cyanobacteria control and successful thermal destratification in deeper reservoirs. Achieving thermal destratification was closely linked to the ratio of the reservoir capacity to the air flowrate used for destratification (the "volumetric destratification coefficient"). Failed thermal destratification was observed in reservoirs where the volumetric destratification coefficient was less than approximately 0.005 L/s/ML. This review identified the potential for scalability of bubble plume destratification across different reservoirs, but future research needs to provide more quantitative data that can be used to develop holistic design guidelines for bubble plume destratification systems for a wide range of reservoirs and operational conditions.

Factors associated with fish mass mortality events in North African freshwater ecosystems, Morocco as a case study

Freshwater biodiversity plays a pivotal role in maintaining ecological equilibrium and furnishing numerous ecosystem services to diverse organisms. However, these intricate ecosystems face imminent threats from various phenomena, including global warming and anthropogenic activities, leading to heightened occurrences of ecological disasters, notably mass mortality events among aquatic fauna. This study represents the first comprehensive investigation and high-frequency monitoring of the ecological disaster of fish mass mortalities in Africa. We focused on instances of fish mass mortality events (FMME) in North African freshwater ecosystems and estuaries in 2019, focusing on Morocco, as the country most endowed with aquatic ecosystems in North Africa. Seven aquatic ecosystems exhibited susceptibility, impacting a total of 10 species. Notably, 94.59% of the minimum estimated 171,064 deceased fish individuals belonged to non-native species. Lepomis macrochirus stood out as the species most profoundly impacted, representing a substantial 63.36% of the total mortalities, with Lepomis gibbosus following closely at 27.64%. Comprehensive measurements of water quality parameters, encompassing temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, salinity, among others, were conducted, and their associations with the affected ecosystems were analyzed. Our findings suggest that the predominant cause of the majority of FMME was attributed to the critically low concentrations of dissolved oxygen, likely resulting from anthropogenic and climatic pressures. Overall, FMME can considered as a potential threat to Moroccan freshwater fish diversity and communities.

Temperatures and hypolimnetic oxygen in German lakes: Observations, future trends and adaptation potential

We investigated trends in temperature, stratification, and hypolimnetic oxygen concentration of German lakes under climate change using observational data and hydrodynamic modelling. Observations from 46 lakes revealed that annually averaged surface temperatures increased by + 0.5 °C between 1990 and 2020 while bottom temperatures remained almost constant. Modelling of 12 lakes predicted further increases in surface temperatures by 0.3 °C/decade until the year 2099 in the most pessimistic emission scenario RCP 8.5 (RCP 4.5: + 0.18 °C/decade; RCP 2.6: + 0.04 °C/decade). Again, bottom temperatures increased much less while summer stratification extended by up to 38 days. Using a simplified oxygen model, we showed that hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations decreased by 0.7-1.9 mg L-1 in response to the extended stratification period. However, model runs assuming lower productivity (e. g. through nutrient reduction) resulted in increased oxygen concentrations even in the most pessimistic emission scenario. Our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on the oxygen budget of lakes can be efficiently mitigated by nutrient control.

Catastrophic fish mass mortality events in Moroccan freshwater ecosystems: alarming trends and impacts on biodiversity

Fish mass mortality events (FMMEs) represent an escalating ecological crisis, significantly threatening aquatic biodiversity, particularly in North African freshwater ecosystems. Addressing a critical knowledge gap in this region, our study presents the first comprehensive assessment of FMMEs in Moroccan aquatic ecosystems, including freshwater systems and estuaries, based on meticulous monitoring from January 2020 to December 2022. During this three-year period, we documented 18 FMMEs across 16 distinct ecosystems, with a notable increase in frequency observed during the summer and autumn months. Estuaries emerged as critical hotspots for these events, exhibiting the highest frequency of FMMEs and highlighting their vulnerability to climatic and anthropogenic pressures. Our findings indicate a staggering loss of at least 7.8 million fish, with Atherina boyeri, accounted and identified as the most affected species by FMMEs. The families Cyprinidae and Mugilidae experienced the most substantial impacts, including significant biomass losses in Chelon saliens, Chelon labrosus, and Cyprinus carpio. Additionally, endemic species such as Luciobarbus maghrebensis and Luciobarbus rabatensis also faced considerable declines. These events underscore severe ecological disruptions and provide novel insights into species distribution and interactions, including the first recorded presence of Oreochromis niloticus in previously undocumented regions. This research underscores the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies and proactive interventions to mitigate the ecological and socioeconomic ramifications of FMMEs. By addressing these critical issues, we can better protect Moroccan freshwater ecosystems that are at risk of further biodiversity loss.

Comparative study on lake ice phenology changes and driving factors in large lakes of mid-latitude Xinjiang, China

The changes in lake ice phenology (LIP) can intuitively reflect the climate evolution in the regions where lakes are located, serving as an important indicator of climate change. The Tianshan Mountains, situated at the southern edge of freezing lakes in the Northern Hemisphere, are a crucial water resource base in Xinjiang and support significant ecosystems closely related to human activities. In the context of intensified climate change, this study focuses on the geographical location, altitude, and water quality differences among large lake groups in the mid-latitude region of Xinjiang, aiming to explore the characteristics of LIP changes in these lakes and their responses to driving factors, thereby providing a basis for effective environmental management and protection. This research conducts a comparative analysis of the LIP changes and driving factors of three large lakes-Sayram Lake (SL), Bosten Lake (BL), and Ebnur Lake (EL)-using multi-source remote sensing data to reveal the response and adaptation mechanisms of lakes under global warming. It effectively captures the time series variations of ice formation and melting, as well as the common responses to environmental and climatic factors. The results indicate that SL has experienced significant climate change effects, with earlier freezing times and accelerated melting speeds; In contrast, EL and BL have shown relatively minor changes, suggesting that geographical and hydrological factors may buffer the impacts of climate. The study finds that all three lakes are jointly influenced by environmental factors such as temperature, wind speed, and precipitation; however, due to differences in altitude, lake surface area, and water transparency, their responses to these climatic factors vary significantly. For instance, SL's high altitude gives water transparency a dominant role in LIP, while BL's larger surface area enhances the impact of precipitation and thermal capacity on the melting process. This indicates that, despite facing similar climate pressures, local environmental conditions can lead to different trends in ice phenology changes. This study offers a novel and efficient monitoring method for LIP, providing valuable insights for future LIP research and water resource management.

Dark carbon fixation is a common process in the water column of stratified boreal lakes

CO2 fixation (i.e. primary production) is a key function of all ecosystems, providing the carbon and energy that fuel the entire food web. It also plays an important role in mitigating climate change as CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas. While photosynthesis is regarded as the most important carbon fixation pathway, prokaryotes able to fix carbon in the absence of light (chemolithoautotrophs) can also be a significant source of energy in a light-limited ecosystem. Boreal lakes, notoriously colored and stratified with respect to oxygen and nutrients, present ideal conditions for this so-called dark carbon fixation by the chemolithoautotrophs. However, the prevalence of dark carbon fixation in boreal lakes remains unknown. Here, we measured dark carbon fixation in Swedish lakes from the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, during summer stratification. We detected dark carbon fixation in 16 out of the 17 lakes studied, and concluded that dark fixation is a widespread phenomenon in boreal lakes. Moreover, the average dark primary production ranged from 18.5 % in the epilimnion to 81.4 % in the hypolimnion of all tested lakes. Our data further suggests that chemolithoautotrophic activity is mostly driven by iron-oxidizing bacteria. The chemolithoautotrophic guild is diverse and seems to be composed of both ubiquitous bacteria, like Gallionellaceae or Chromatiaceae, and endemic taxa, such as Ferrovaceae, which appears to be favored by a low pH. These results are particularly exciting as they suggest that dark carbon fixation could partly compensate for the low photosynthetic capacity in lakes with dark-colored water.

Periodically asymmetric responses of deep chlorophyll maximum to light and thermocline in a clear monomictic lake: Insights from monthly and diel scale observations

Deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM), a chlorophyll peak in the water column, has important implications for biogeochemical cycles, energy flow and water surface algal blooms in deep lakes. However, how an observed periodically asymmetric DCM response to environmental variables remains unclear, limiting our in-depth understanding and effective eco-environmental management of deep lakes. Based on both monthly field investigations in 2021 and diel continuous observations in 2021-2023 in clear, monomictic Lake Fuxian, Southwest China, the temporal dynamics and drivers of DCM were examined and periodic features of DCM were found, with a formation period (FP, February-July) and a weakening period (WP, August-December). On the monthly scale, although DCM dynamics were partly attributed to thermocline structures, the role of light penetration depths varied with period. In the FP, the influence of light on DCM was direct, i.e., increased depth and thickness but decreased magnitude. Differently, the influence of light mainly occurred by affecting thermocline structures in the WP, where water quality was another important driver. On the diel scale, light was a major reason for a thicker and lower (magnitude) DCM during day than at night, and the response of DCM to environmental factors between the FP and WP differed also more during day. This periodically asymmetric response of daytime DCM not only being caused by light but possibly also related to other physical factors such as lake surface water temperature, wind speed and precipitation. Bayesian network modelling suggested that water darkening and stratification intensification may promote a shallower, thinner and larger (magnitude) DCM in both FP and WP, but achieving such changes in DCM requires different light and thermocline thresholds. Our findings provide new information valuable for modelling DCM and for predicting the related surface algal blooms in deep lakes under climate change and eutrophication.

A probabilistic hazard assessment for cyanobacterial toxins accounting for regional geography and water body trophic status

Under climate change scenarios freshwater eutrophication is expected to increase, and with it the occurrence of cyanobacterial toxin-producing harmful algal blooms. In the current study, microcystin toxin occurrence data from literature sources and a long-term provincial monitoring program were used to conduct a probabilistic hazard assessment for Alberta, Canada. The large temporal and spatial range of data makes Alberta a model system for identifying regional geography and water body trophic status factors driving toxin concentrations. Environmental exposure distributions of microcystin concentrations were plotted and used to identify the likelihood of a given sample exceeding water guideline values as a function of regional geography, total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentration. This process identified regions with intensive cultivation and those most prone to water deficits associated with climate change to be most associated with exceedances of regulatory guideline values. Elevated phosphorus and chlorophyll-a concentrations were also drivers of toxin occurrence. This assessment can be used to identify water bodies of greatest risk to human and animal populations from cyanotoxins and thereby inform regulators as to most effective monitoring strategies.

Declined nutrients stability shaped by water residence times in lakes and reservoirs under climate change

Water quality stability in lakes and reservoirs is essential for drinking water safety and ecosystem health, especially given the frequent occurrence of extreme climate events. However, the relationship between water quality stability and water residence time (WRT) has not been well elucidated. In this study, we explored the relationship based on nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations data in 11 lakes and 49 reservoirs in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin from 2010 to 2022. Additionally, we examined the effects of hydrometeorological characteristics, the geomorphology of water bodies and catchments, and land use on the WRT, establishing a link between climate change and the stability of N and P in these water bodies. The results showed that a significant correlation between the stability of N and P in lakes and reservoirs and their WRT. The longer WRT tends to coincide with decreased stability and higher nutrient concentrations. Hydrometeorological factors are the primary factors on the WRT, with precipitation exerting the greatest effect, particularly under extreme drought. In recent years, extreme climatic events have intensified the fluctuations of WRT, resulting in a renewed increase in N and P concentrations and deterioration in stability. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating meteorological and hydrological factors alongside reinforcing ecological restoration into lake and reservoir management strategies, and providing a scientific basis for future efforts aimed at enhancing lake and reservoir water quality stability and safeguarding aquatic ecosystems.

Understanding stratification and turnover dynamics of a tropical lake using extensive field observations and 3D hydrodynamic simulations

The stratification and turnover dynamics of a tropical lake were evaluated using field observations and 3D hydrodynamic simulations. Located in the Philippines, Sampaloc Lake is a 104-ha and 27-m deep volcanic crater lake with enclosed watershed, which is at risk of the impacts of intensive aquaculture, rapid urbanization and climate change. Temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) were measured at seven sampling stations using a multiprobe. Kruskal-Wallis test revealed that the three parameters are not significantly different among stations, indicating that one sampling station can represent the water quality of the whole lake. Schmidt's Stability Index (SSI) and thermocline strength, together with DO and Chl-a gradients decreased from October 2022 (stratified) to January 2023 (turnover). After successfully verifying the 3D numerical model, sensitivity analyses of water temperature to varying weather, together with particle tracking simulations, were implemented to determine the timing of isothermal state, upwelling, partial mixing, and full turnover. Compared to air temperature, variations in wind speed have more pronounced effects on the delay or progression of isothermal conditions in the lake based on SSI, Lake Number and Wedderburn Number. Isothermal conditions do not necessarily coincide with the timing of full turnover, with the latter being delayed by two days than the former, on average. Results revealed that full turnover can occur several weeks earlier with the decrease in AT and increase in WS. This study can advance the understanding of thermal and turnover dynamics of stratified tropical lakes, leading to better management of the water quality of these water bodies.

The future of algal blooms in lakes globally is in our hands

Lakes are fundamental to society and nature, yet they are currently exposed to excessive nutrients and climate change, resulting in algal blooms. In the future, this may change, but how and where still needs more scientific attention. Here, we explore future trends in algal blooms in lakes globally for >3500 'representative lakes' for the year 2050, considering the attribution of both nutrient and climate factors. We soft-coupled a process-based lake ecosystem model (PCLake+) with a watershed nutrient model (MARINA-Multi) to assess trends in algal blooms in terms of the Trophic State Index for chlorophyll-a (TSI-Chla). Globally between 2010 and 2050, we show a rising trend in algal blooms under fossil-fuelled development (TSI-Chla increase in 91 % of lakes) and a declining trend under sustainable development (TSI-Chla decrease in 63 % of lakes). These changes are significantly attributed to nutrients. While not always significant, climate change attributions point to being unfavourable for lakes in 2050, exacerbating lake water quality. Our study stresses prioritising responsible nutrient and climate management on policy agendas. This implies that the future of algal blooms in lakes is in our hands.

Strong bottom currents in large, deep Lake Geneva generated by higher vertical-mode Poincaré waves

Although internal seiches are ubiquitous in large, deep lakes, little is known about the effect of higher vertical-mode seiches on deepwater dynamics. Here, by combining entire summer season current and temperature observations and 3D numerical modeling, we demonstrate that previously undetected vertical mode-two and mode-three Poincaré waves in 309-meter deep Lake Geneva (Switzerland/France) generate bottom-boundary layer currents up to 4 cm s-1. Poincaré wave amphidromic patterns revealed three strong cells excited simultaneously. Weak hypolimnetic stratification (N 2 ≈ 10-6 s -2), typical of deep lakes, significantly modified the wave structure by shifting the lower vertical node in the lake's center from ~75-meter depth (without stratification) to ~150-meter depth (with stratification). This shift induces shear in the middle of the hypolimnion and strengthens bottom currents, with important implications for hypolimnetic mixing and sediment-water exchange. Our findings demonstrate that classical concepts based on constant temperature layers cannot correctly characterize higher vertical-mode Poincaré seiches in deep lakes.

Effects of changed water regime on the toxicity of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in tadpoles of Fejervarya limnocharis

Climate change is viewed as one of the important causes of the amphibian population decline. Aspects of climate change like increase in water temperature and drying up of habitats have been underrepresented. The expanding production and usage of metal nanoparticles like silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) make them likely to end up in aquatic ecosystems. To arrive at a realistic assessment of the impact of AgNPs in a warming world, we have investigated the effects of temperature on the acute toxicity of AgNPs in tadpoles of Fejervarya limnocharis at 24, 48, 72 and 96 h of exposure. The various aspects of sub-lethal toxicities of AgNPs with increase in temperature were also investigated. Besides, the effects of habitat desiccation on the sub-lethal toxicities of AgNPs in the tadpoles were analysed. The LC50 values of AgNPs at four different time points were found to be significantly different between the two different temperatures. Alterations in survival pattern, life history traits, amplifications in genotoxic potential and oxidative stress were observed with increased water temperature following AgNP exposure. The phenomenon of habitat desiccation was also found to significantly affect the toxicity of AgNPs with respect to alterations in mortality rate, time to metamorphosis and morphometric parameters of metamorphosed tadpoles. The findings suggest that changed water regime such as increased water temperature as well as reduction in water level accelerated the toxic effects of AgNPs in F. limnocharis tadpoles which is likely to affect their natural populations.

Aquatic deoxygenation as a planetary boundary and key regulator of Earth system stability

Planetary boundaries represent thresholds in major Earth system processes that are sensitive to human activity and control global-scale habitability and stability. These processes are interconnected such that movement of one planetary boundary process can alter the likelihood of crossing other boundaries. Here we argue that the observed deoxygenation of the Earth's freshwater and marine ecosystems represents an additional planetary boundary process that is critical to the integrity of Earth's ecological and social systems, and both regulates and responds to ongoing changes in other planetary boundary processes. Research on the rapid and ongoing deoxygenation of Earth's aquatic habitats indicates that relevant, critical oxygen thresholds are being approached at rates comparable to other planetary boundary processes. Concerted global monitoring, research and policy efforts are needed to address the challenges brought on by rapid deoxygenation, and the expansion of the planetary boundaries framework to include deoxygenation as a boundary helps to focus those efforts.

Host Jump of an Exotic Fish Rhabdovirus into a New Class of Animals Poses a Disease Threat to Amphibians

Spring viremia of carp virus (SVCV) is a rhabdovirus that primarily infects cyprinid finfishes and causes a disease notifiable to the World Organization for Animal Health. Amphibians, which are sympatric with cyprinids in freshwater ecosystems, are considered non-permissive hosts of rhabdoviruses. The potential host range expansion of SVCV in an atypical host species was evaluated by testing the susceptibility of amphibians native to the Pacific Northwest. Larval long-toed salamanders Ambystoma macrodactylum and Pacific tree frog Pseudacris regilla tadpoles were exposed to SVCV strains from genotypes Ia, Ib, Ic, or Id by either intraperitoneal injection, immersion, or cohabitation with virus-infected koi Cyprinus rubrofuscus. Cumulative mortality was 100% for salamanders injected with SVCV, 98-100% for tadpoles exposed to virus via immersion, and 0-100% for tadpoles cohabited with SVCV-infected koi. Many of the animals that died exhibited clinical signs of disease and SVCV RNA was found by in situ hybridization in tissue sections of immersion-exposed tadpoles, particularly in the cells of the gastrointestinal tract and liver. SVCV was also detected by plaque assay and RT-qPCR testing in both amphibian species regardless of the virus exposure method, and viable virus was detected up to 28 days after initial exposure. Recovery of infectious virus from naïve tadpoles cohabited with SVCV-infected koi further demonstrated that SVCV transmission can occur between classes of ectothermic vertebrates. Collectively, these results indicated that SVCV, a fish rhabdovirus, can be transmitted to and cause lethal disease in two amphibian species. Therefore, members of all five of the major vertebrate groups (mammals, birds, reptiles, fish, and amphibians) appear to be vulnerable to rhabdovirus infections. Future research studying potential spillover and spillback infections of aquatic rhabdoviruses between foreign and domestic amphibian and fish species will provide insights into the stressors driving novel interclass virus transmission events.

Declining lake ice in response to climate change can impact spending for local communities

Lake ice is an important socio-economic resource that is threatened by climate change. The cover and duration of lake ice are expected to decline as air temperatures warm in the coming decades, disrupting a previously reliable source of income for many activities dependent on lake ice. The economic consequences of climate-induced lake ice loss remain unexplored, creating a significant research gap. The purpose of this study was to quantify the monetary spending associated with lake ice and how climate change may impact that value. Using a series of General Circulation Models (GCMs), greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, and models for lake ice cover, we predicted changes in lake ice by the end of the 21st century for the Northern Hemisphere. We also synthesized examples of spending associated with lake ice activities and discussed the potential implications expected with declining ice cover. We found that lake ice will decrease in area by 44,000-177,000 km2 and shorten in duration by 13-43 days by 2100. Using 31 examples of revenue from lake ice, we found that lake ice generates spending of over USD 2.04 billion to local communities and economies. We also found that countries predicted to experience the greatest ice loss by the end of the century are those that currently have the largest GDP, highest greenhouse gas emissions, and are most dependent on freshwater withdrawal. Our findings confirm predicted losses in lake ice that are expected because of climate change and quantify some of the potential consequences for local communities. Here we highlight lake ice as another casualty of human-caused climate change that will have profound socio-economic implications.

Variations in surface area and biogeochemistry of subarctic-arctic lakes established through satellite and in-situ observations: An overview of published research from the past 30 years

Human activities have strongly impacted the global climate, and during the last few decades the global average temperature has risen at a rate faster than at any time on record. High latitude lakes in the subarctic and arctic permafrost regions have particularly been vulnerable given the "Arctic amplification" phenomenon and acceleration in warming rate in the northern hemisphere (0.2-0.8 °C/decade). This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the last 30 years of research investigating how subarctic and Arctic lakes respond to climate warming. The review focused on studies where remote sensing technology was used to quantify these responses. The difference between summer lake water temperature and air temperature varied between 1.7 and 5.4 °C in subarctic lakes and 2.4-3.2 °C in Arctic lakes. Overall, the freezing date of lake ice is generally delayed and the date of lake thawing occurs earlier. Lake surface area (4-48.5 %), and abundance in the subarctic and Arctic region have increased significantly due to rising temperature, permafrost thawing, increased precipitation and other localized surface disturbances. However, in recent years, instances of lake shrinkage (between -0.4 % and -40 %) have also been reported, likely due to riparian overflow, groundwater infiltration and lateral drainage. Furthermore, in subarctic and Arctic lakes, climate change and permafrost thawing would release CO2 and CH4, and alter carbon dynamics in impacted lakes through various interconnected processes which could potentially affect the quality of carbon (terrestrial, algae) entering a lake system. The review also highlighted a potential intersection between permafrost melting and public health through human exposure to long-buried viruses. Subarctic and arctic ecosystems' responses to climate change will continue to be an area of intense research interest, and this review has highlighted priority areas for research and how remote sensing technologies can facilitate the pursuit of such a research agenda.

Reduced precipitation can induce ecosystem regime shifts in lakes by increasing internal nutrient recycling

Eutrophication is a main threat to continental aquatic ecosystems. Prevention and amelioration actions have been taken under the assumption of a stable climate, which needs reconsideration. Here, we show that reduced precipitation can bring a lake ecosystem to a more productive regime even with a decline in nutrient external load. By analyzing time series of several decades in the largest lake of the Iberian Peninsula, we found autocorrelated changes in the variance of state variables (i.e., chlorophyll and oxygen) indicative of a transient situation towards a new ecosystem regime. Indeed, exceptional planktonic diatom blooms have occurred during the last few years, and the sediment record shows a shift in phytoplankton composition and an increase in nutrient retention. Reduced precipitation almost doubled the water residence time in the lake, enhancing the relevance of internal processes. This study demonstrates that ecological quality targets for aquatic ecosystems must be tailored to the changing climatic conditions for appropriate stewardship.

Mechanism of organic phosphorus transformation and its impact on the primary production in a deep oligotrophic plateau lake during stratification

Global warming is leading to extended stratification in deep lakes, which may exacerbate phosphorus (P) limitation in the upper waters. Conversion of labile dissolved organic P (DOP) is a possible adaptive strategy to maintain primary production. To test this, the spatiotemporal distributions of various soluble P fractions and phosphomonesterase (PME)/phosphodiesterase (PDE) activities were investigated in Lake Fuxian during the stratification period and the transition capacity of organic P and its impact on primary productivity were evaluated. The results indicated that the DOP concentration (mean 0.20 ± 0.05 μmol L-1) was significantly higher than that of dissolved inorganic P (DIP) (mean 0.08 ± 0.03 μmol L-1) in the epilimnion and metalimnion, which were predominantly composed of orthophosphate monoester (monoester-P) and orthophosphate diesters (diester-P). The low ratio of diester-P / monoester-P and high activities of PME and PDE indicate DOP mineralization in the epilimnion and metalimnion. We detected a DIP threshold of approximately 0.19 μmol L-1, corresponding to the highest total PME activity in the lake. Meta-analysis further demonstrated that DIP thresholds of PME activities were prevalent in oligotrophic (0.19 μmol L-1) and mesotrophic (0.74 μmol L-1) inland waters. In contrast to the phosphate-sensitive phosphatase PME, dissolved PDE was expressed independent of phosphate availability and its activity invariably correlated with chlorophyll a, suggesting the involvement of phytoplankton in DOP utilization. This study provides important field evidence for the DOP transformation processes and the strategy for maintaining primary productivity in P-deficient scenarios, which contributes to the understanding of P cycles and the mechanisms of system adaptation to future long-term P limitations in stratified waters.

Climate change-associated declines in water clarity impair feeding by common loons

Climate change has myriad impacts on ecosystems, but the mechanisms by which it affects individual species can be difficult to pinpoint. One strategy to discover such mechanisms is to identify a specific ecological factor related to survival or reproduction and determine how that factor is affected by climate. Here we used Landsat imagery to calculate water clarity for 127 lakes in northern Wisconsin from 1995 to 2021 and thus investigate the effect of clarity on the body condition of an aquatic visual predator, the common loon (Gavia immer). In addition, we examined rainfall and temperature as potential predictors of water clarity. Body mass tracked July water clarity strongly in loon chicks, which grow chiefly in that month, but weakly in adult males and females. Long-term mean water clarity was negatively related to chick mass but positively related to adult male mass, suggesting that loons foraging in generally clear lakes enjoy good foraging conditions in the long run but might be sensitive to perturbations in clarity during chick-rearing. Finally, chick mass was positively related to the density of docks, perhaps because angling removes large fishes and thus boosts the abundance of the small fishes on which chicks depend. Water clarity itself declined strongly from 1995 to 2021, was negatively related to July rainfall, and was positively related to July air temperature. Our findings identified both long-term and short-term water clarity as strong predictors of loon foraging efficiency, and suggest that climate change, through water clarity, impacts freshwater ecosystems profoundly. Moreover, our results identified the recent decrease in water clarity as a likely cause of population decline in common loons.

Climate change impact on sub-tropical lakes - Lake Kinneret as a case study

Climate change is anticipated to alter lake ecosystems by affecting water quality, potentially resulting in loss of ecosystem services. Subtropical lakes have high temperatures to begin with and are expected to exhibit higher temperatures all year round which might affect the thermal structure and ecological processes in a different manner than lakes in temperate zones. In this study the ecosystem response of the sub-tropical Lake Kinneret to climate change was explored using lake ecosystem models. Projection reliability was increased by using a weather generator and ensemble modelling, confronting uncertainty of both climate projections and lake models. The study included running two 1D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models over one thousand realizations of two gradual temperature increase scenarios that span over 49 years. Our predictions show that an increase in air temperature would have subtle effects on stratification properties but may result in considerable changes to biogeochemical processes. Water temperature rise would cause a reduction in dissolved oxygen. Both of these changes would produce elevated phosphate and lowered ammonium concentrations. In turn, these changes are predicted to modify the phytoplankton community, expressed chiefly in increased cyanobacteria blooms at the expense of green phytoplankton and dinoflagellates; these changes may culminate in overall reduction of primary production. Identification of these trends would not be possible without the use of many realizations of climate scenarios. The use of ensemble modelling increased prediction reliability and highlighted elements of uncertainty. Though we use Lake Kinneret, the patterns identified most likely indicate processes that are expected in sub-tropical lakes in general.

How nutrient retention and TN:TP ratios depend on ecosystem state in thousands of Chinese lakes

Worldwide, anthropogenic activities threaten surface water quality by aggravating eutrophication and increasing total nitrogen to total phosphorus (TN:TP) ratios. In hydrologically connected systems, water quality management may benefit from in-ecosystem nutrient retention by preventing nutrient transport to downstream systems. However, nutrient retention may also alter TN:TP ratios with unforeseen consequences for downstream water quality. Here, we aim to increase understanding of how nutrient retention may influence nutrient transport to downstream systems to improve long-term water quality management. We analyzed lake ecosystem state, in-lake nutrient retention, and nutrient transport (ratios) for 3482 Chinese lakes using the lake process-based ecosystem model PCLake+. We compared a low climate change and sustainability-, and a high climate change and economy-focused scenario for 2050 against 2012. In both scenarios, the effect of nutrient input reduction outweighs that of temperature rise, resulting in more lakes with good ecological water quality (i.e., macrophyte-dominated) than in 2012. Generally, the sustainability-focused scenario shows a more promising future for water quality than the economy-focused scenario. Nevertheless, most lakes remain phytoplankton-dominated. The shift to more macrophyte-dominated lakes in 2050 is accompanied by higher nutrient retention fractions and less nutrient transport to downstream waterbodies. In-lake nutrient retention also alters the water's TN:TP ratio, depending on the inflow TN:TP ratio and the ecosystem state. In 2050 higher TN:TP ratios are expected in the outflows of lakes than in 2012, especially for the sustainability-focused scenario with strong TP loading reduction. However, the downstream impact of increased TN:TP ratios depends on actual nutrient loadings and the limiting nutrient in the receiving system. We conclude that nutrient input reductions, improved water quality, higher in-lake nutrient retention fractions, and lower nutrient transport to downstream waterbodies go hand in hand. Therefore, water quality management could benefit even more from nutrient pollution reduction than one would expect at first sight.

Warming underpins community turnover in temperate freshwater and terrestrial communities

Rising temperatures are leading to increased prevalence of warm-affinity species in ecosystems, known as thermophilisation. However, factors influencing variation in thermophilisation rates among taxa and ecosystems, particularly freshwater communities with high diversity and high population decline, remain unclear. We analysed compositional change over time in 7123 freshwater and 6201 terrestrial, mostly temperate communities from multiple taxonomic groups. Overall, temperature change was positively linked to thermophilisation in both realms. Extirpated species had lower thermal affinities in terrestrial communities but higher affinities in freshwater communities compared to those persisting over time. Temperature change's impact on thermophilisation varied with community body size, thermal niche breadth, species richness and baseline temperature; these interactive effects were idiosyncratic in the direction and magnitude of their impacts on thermophilisation, both across realms and taxonomic groups. While our findings emphasise the challenges in predicting the consequences of temperature change across communities, conservation strategies should consider these variable responses when attempting to mitigate climate-induced biodiversity loss.

Influence of hydrological features on CO2 and CH4 concentrations in the surface water of lakes, Southwest China: A seasonal and mixing regime analysis

Due to the large spatiotemporal variability in the processes controlling carbon emissions from lakes, estimates of global lake carbon emission remain uncertain. Identifying the most reliable predictors of CO2 and CH4 concentrations across different hydrological features can enhance the accuracy of carbon emission estimates locally and globally. Here, we used data from 71 lakes in Southwest China varying in surface area (0.01‒702.4 km2), mean depth (< 1‒89.6 m), and climate to analyze differences in CO2 and CH4 concentrations and their driving mechanisms between the dry and rainy seasons and between different mixing regimes. The results showed that the average concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in the rainy season were 23.9 ± 18.8 μmol L-1 and 2.5 ± 4.9 μmol L-1, respectively, which were significantly higher than in the dry season (10.5 ± 10.3 μmol L-1 and 1.8 ± 4.2 μmol L-1, respectively). The average concentrations of CO2 and CH4 at the vertically mixed sites were 24.1 ± 21.8 μmol L-1 and 2.6 ± 5.4 μmol L-1, being higher than those at the stratified sites (14.8 ± 13.4 μmol L-1 and 1.7 ± 3.5 μmol L-1, respectively). Moreover, the environmental factors were divided into four categories, i.e., system productivity (represented by the contents of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chlorophyll a and dissolved organic matter), physicochemical factors (water temperature, Secchi disk depth, dissolved oxygen and pH value), lake morphology (lake area, water depth and drainage ratio), and geoclimatic factors (altitude, wind speed, precipitation and land-use intensity). In addition to the regression and variance partitioning analyses between the concentrations of CO2 and CH4 and environmental factors, the cascading effects of environmental factors on CO2 and CH4 concentrations were further elucidated under four distinct hydrological scenarios, indicating the different driving mechanisms between the scenarios. Lake morphology and geoclimatic factors were the main direct drivers of the carbon concentrations during the rainy season, while they indirectly affected the carbon concentrations via influencing physicochemical factors and further system productivity during the dry season; although lake morphology and geoclimatic factors directly contributed to the carbon concentrations at the vertically mixed and stratified sites, the direct effect of system productivity was only observed at the stratified sites. Our results emphasize that, when estimating carbon emissions from lakes at broad spatial scales, it is essential to consider the influence of precipitation-related seasons and lake mixing regimes.

Vertical eDNA distribution of cold-water fishes in response to environmental variables in stratified lake

In summer, the survival zones of cold-water species are predicted to narrow by both increasing water temperatures from the surface and by expanding hypoxic zones from the lake bottom. To examine how the abundance of cold-water fishes changes along environmental gradients, we assessed the vertical environmental DNA (eDNA) distributions of three salmonid species which may have different water temperature tolerances during both stratification and turnover periods using quantitative PCR (qPCR). In addition, we examined on the vertical distribution of diverse fish fauna using an eDNA metabarcoding assay. The results suggested that the kokanee salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) eDNA were abundant in deep, cold waters. On the other hand, rainbow trout (O. mykiss) eDNA were distributed uniformly throughout the water column, suggesting that they may have high water-temperature tolerance compared with kokanee salmon. The eDNA concentrations of masu salmon (O. masou) were below the detection limit (i.e., <10 copies μL-1) at all stations and depths and hence could not be quantified during stratification. Together with the finding that the eDNA distributions of other prey fish species were also constrained vertically in species-specific ways, our results suggest that climate change will result in substantial changes in the vertical distributions of lake fish species and thus affect their populations and interactions.

Elevated internal phosphorus loading from shallow areas of eutrophic boreal lakes: Insights from porewater geochemistry

Internal phosphorus (P) loading is widely recognized as a major cause of lake eutrophication. One conventional paradigm states that the magnitude of internal loading through P diffusion is constrained by the presence of iron (Fe) oxides in surface sediments under oxic conditions near the sediment-water interface (SWI). However, biogeochemical P dynamics in Fe-rich sedimentary systems are still not fully understood, especially in eutrophic lakes where intensively coupled organic matter (OM) remineralization and reductive dissolution of Fe-bound P (Fe-P) exist concurrently. Here, we assess the diagenetic processes that govern sedimentary P cycling in two eutrophic Fe-rich lakes in southern Finland, Lake Hiidenvesi and Lake Kytäjärvi, using a combination of porewater and solid-phase analyses. Coupled reductive dissolution of Fe-P and OM remineralization controlled P regeneration in both lakes, with Fe-P acting as the dominant source for porewater P. Vivianite formation likely immobilized sedimentary P in the deepest basin of Hiidenvesi. Elevated P diffusion rates were observed at shallow sites under oxic bottom water conditions in summer in both lakes, stimulated by enhanced remineralization of both freshly- (mostly phytoplankton-origin) and earlier-deposited OM under elevated temperatures. Areas overlain by oxic bottom water contributed more benthic P fluxes to the water column compared to anoxic/hypoxic areas in both lakes during all sampling seasons. Our study suggests that in shallow eutrophic settings with high OM deposition and elevated temperatures, remineralization in upper sediments regenerates P efficiently enough to support a significant amount of P release to the water column even under sedimentary molar Fe/P ratios >20. We also discuss the implication of our findings for lake restoration strategies.

Concurrent warming and browning eliminate cold-water fish habitat in many temperate lakes

Cold-water species in temperate lakes face two simultaneous climate-driven ecosystem changes: warming and browning of their waters. Browning refers to reduced transparency arising from increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which absorbs solar energy near the surface. It is unclear whether the net effect is mitigation or amplification of climate warming impacts on suitable oxythermal habitat (<20 °C, >5 mgO/L) for cold-loving species because browning expands the vertical distribution of both cool water and oxygen depletion. We analyzed long-term trends and high-frequency sensor data from browning lakes in New York's Adirondack region to assess the contemporary status of summertime habitat for lacustrine brook trout. Across two decades, surface temperatures increased twice as fast and bottom dissolved oxygen declined >180% faster than average trends for temperate lakes. We identify four lake categories based on oxythermal habitat metrics: constrained, squeezed, overheated, and buffered. In most of our study lakes, trout face either seasonal loss (7 of 15) or dramatic restriction (12 to 21% of the water column; 5 of 15) of suitable habitat. These sobering statistics reflect rapid upward expansion of oxygen depletion in lakes with moderate or high DOC relative to compression of heat penetration. Only in very clear lakes has browning potentially mitigated climate warming. Applying our findings to extensive survey data suggests that decades of browning have reduced oxythermal refugia in most Adirondack lakes. We conclude that joint warming and browning may preclude self-sustaining cold-water fisheries in many temperate lakes; hence, oxythermal categorization is essential to guide triage strategies and management interventions.

Enigmatic persistence of aerobic methanotrophs in oxygen-limiting freshwater habitats

Methanotrophic bacteria mitigate emissions of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4) from a variety of anthropogenic and natural sources, including freshwater lakes, which are large sources of CH4 on a global scale. Despite a dependence on dioxygen (O2) for CH4 oxidation, abundant populations of putatively aerobic methanotrophs have been detected within microoxic and anoxic waters and sediments of lakes. Experimental work has demonstrated active aerobic methanotrophs under those conditions, but how they are able to persist and oxidize CH4 under O2 deficiency remains enigmatic. In this review, we discuss possible mechanisms that underpin the persistence and activity of aerobic methanotrophs under O2-limiting conditions in freshwater habitats, particularly lakes, summarize experimental evidence for microbial oxidation of CH4 by aerobic bacteria under low or no O2, and suggest future research directions to further explore the ecology and metabolism of aerobic methanotrophs in O2-limiting environments.

Habitat modulates population-level responses of freshwater salmon growth to a century of change in climate and competition

The impacts of climate change are widespread and threaten natural systems globally. Yet, within regions, heterogeneous physical landscapes can differentially filter climate, leading to local response diversity. For example, it is possible that while freshwater lakes are sensitive to climate change, they may exhibit a diversity of thermal responses owing to their unique morphology, which in turn can differentially affect the growth and survival of vulnerable biota such as fishes. In particular, salmonids are cold-water fishes with complex life histories shaped by diverse freshwater habitats that are sensitive to warming temperatures. Here we examine the influence of habitat on the growth of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in nursery lakes of Canada's Skeena River watershed over a century of change in regional temperature and intraspecific competition. We found that freshwater growth has generally increased over the last century. While growth tended to be higher in years with relatively higher summer air temperatures (a proxy for lake temperature), long-term increases in growth appear largely influenced by reduced competition. However, habitat played an important role in modulating the effect of high temperature. Specifically, growth was positively associated with rising temperatures in relatively deep (>50 m) nursery lakes, whereas warmer temperatures were not associated with a change in growth for fish among shallow lakes. The influence of temperature on growth also was modulated by glacier extent whereby the growth of fish from lakes situated in watersheds with little (i.e., <5%) glacier cover increased with rising temperatures, but decreased with rising temperatures for fish in lakes within more glaciated watersheds. Maintaining the integrity of an array of freshwater habitats-and the processes that generate and maintain them-will help foster a diverse climate-response portfolio for important fish species, which in turn can ensure that salmon watersheds are resilient to future environmental change.

Controls of thermal response of temperate lakes to atmospheric warming

Atmospheric warming heats lakes, but the causes of variation among basins are poorly understood. Here, multi-decadal profiles of water temperatures, trophic state, and local climate from 345 temperate lakes are combined with data on lake geomorphology and watershed characteristics to identify controls of the relative rates of temperature change in water (WT) and air (AT) during summer. We show that differences in local climate (AT, wind speed, humidity, irradiance), land cover (forest, urban, agriculture), geomorphology (elevation, area/depth ratio), and water transparency explain >30% of the difference in rate of lake heating compared to that of the atmosphere. Importantly, the rate of lake heating slows as air warms (P < 0.001). Clear, cold, and deep lakes, especially at high elevation and in undisturbed catchments, are particularly responsive to changes in atmospheric temperature. We suggest that rates of surface water warming may decline relative to the atmosphere in a warmer future, particularly in sites already experiencing terrestrial development or eutrophication.

Stability of consumer-resource interactions in periodic environments

Periodic fluctuations in abiotic conditions are ubiquitous across a range of temporal scales and regulate the structure and function of ecosystems through dynamic biotic responses that are adapted to these external forces. Research has suggested that certain environmental signatures may play a crucial role in the maintenance of biodiversity and the stability of food webs, while others argue that coupled oscillators ought to promote chaos. As such, numerous uncertainties remain regarding the intersection of temporal environmental patterns and biological responses, and we lack a general understanding of the implications for food web stability. Alarmingly, global change is altering the nature of both environmental rhythms and biological rates. Here, we develop a general theory for how continuous periodic variation in productivity, across temporal scales, influences the stability of consumer-resource interactions: a fundamental building block of food webs. Our results suggest that consumer-resource dynamics under environmental forcing are highly complex and depend on asymmetries in both the speed of forcing relative to underlying dynamics and in local stability properties. These asymmetries allow for environmentally driven stabilization under fast forcing, relative to underlying dynamics, as well as extremely complex and unstable dynamics at slower periodicities. Our results also suggest that changes in naturally occurring periodicities from climate change may lead to precipitous shifts in dynamics and stability.

Climate change amplifies the risk of potentially toxigenic cyanobacteria

Cyanobacterial blooms pose a significant threat to water security, with anthropogenic forcing being implicated as a key driver behind the recent upsurge and global expansion of cyanobacteria in modern times. The potential effects of land-use alterations and climate change can lead to complicated, less-predictable scenarios in cyanobacterial management, especially when forecasting cyanobacterial toxin risks. There is a growing need for further investigations into the specific stressors that stimulate cyanobacterial toxins, as well as resolving the uncertainty surrounding the historical or contemporary nature of cyanobacterial-associated risks. To address this gap, we employed a paleolimnological approach to reconstruct cyanobacterial abundance and microcystin-producing potential in temperate lakes situated along a human impact gradient. We identified breakpoints (i.e., points of abrupt change) in these time series and examined the impact of landscape and climatic properties on their occurrence. Our findings indicate that lakes subject to greater human influence exhibited an earlier onset of cyanobacterial biomass by 40 years compared to less-impacted lakes, with land-use change emerging as the dominant predictor. Moreover, microcystin-producing potential increased in both high- and low-impact lakes around the 1980s, with climate warming being the primary driver. Our findings chronicle the importance of climate change in increasing the risk of toxigenic cyanobacteria in freshwater resources.

Warming may offset impact of precipitation changes on riverine nitrogen loading

Climate change, especially in the form of precipitation and temperature changes, can alter the transformation and delivery of nitrogen on the land surface and to aquatic systems, impacting the trophic states of downstream water bodies. While the expected impacts of changes in precipitation have been explored, a quantitative understanding of the impact of temperature on nitrogen loading is lacking at landscape scales. Here, using several decades of nitrogen loading observations, we quantify how individual and combined future changes in precipitation and temperature will affect riverine nitrogen loading. We find that, contrary to recent decades, rising temperatures are likely to offset or even reverse previously reported impacts of future increases in total and extreme precipitation on nitrogen runoff across the majority of the contiguous United States. These findings highlight the multifaceted impacts of climate change on the global nitrogen cycle.

Increasing water temperature of the largest freshwater lake on the Mediterranean islands as an indicator of global warming

Global warming has been monitored for many years. The increase in air temperature and changes in the distribution and frequency of high temperatures are recorded continually. Lakes are one of the important water resources for aquatic ecosystems and water supply, which are significantly affected by global warming. The increase in lake water temperature increases the evaporation from the free lake surface, lowering the lake level, and changes the water quality. In the last few decades, analysis of changes in lake water temperature has been increasing. In situ measurements of water temperature in Vrana Lake on Cres island (Croatia), the largest freshwater lake on the Mediterranean islands, were analysed over 43 years. The results showed that the mean annual lake surface water temperature (LSWT) increased by 0.47 °C decade-1 (p < 0.0001). The increase in the mean annual lake summer surface water temperature (July-September) was 0.44 °C decade-1 (p < 0.0001), and the maximum annual LSWT was 0.56 °C decade-1 (p < 0.0001). All these amounts are in accordance with the published data on the increase in water temperature in the investigated European lakes. The number of days with LSWT higher than 25 °C increased by almost 9 d decade-1. An increase in the minimum LSWT (0.17 °C decade-1) corresponding to isothermal conditions was also determined but was not statistically significant. The minimum mean monthly LSWT increased by 0.36 °C decade-1 (p < 0.0001). Because the increase in water temperature can negatively affect the lake's ecosystem, and become a threat to safe water supply; LSWT, thermal stratification and evaporation should be continuously monitored. The impacts of climate warming on the lake stratification and aquatic ecosystems need to be further investigated.

Lake Toba stratification study with physical, chemical, and isotopic parameter approach

In general, lakes provide various ecosystem services that support biotic habitats and human life. Lake Toba, the largest caldera volcanic lake in the world, has been functioning as a tourism destination and for fish farming, a fresh water source, and for power supplies. The lake has maximum depth of about 505 m. Stratification in the lake water column especially in a tropical region like Indonesia is a common phenomenon. Stratification of the lake is one important factor which will influence the next stage in the biological processes and water quality of the lake. The objective of the current study was to analyze and elucidate the stratification of Lake Toba through the variations of physical, chemical, and isotopic parameters. Water temperature, dissolved oxygen concentrations, water chemical contents, and isotopic parameters were observed periodically from 2016 until 2019. Fourteen sampling points evenly distributed across the surface of the lake were predetermined to represent the North, South, East, and West of the lake. A conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD) device and Baro-divers were used to measure temperature and conductivity at various depths in the water column for each sampling point. The water samples for isotopic and chemical parameter measurements were collected from water depths of 0, 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 m using a horizontal transparent acrylic water sampler at each sampling point. Some results from isotope analysis showed that all the water at all levels along the water column had undergone evaporation. Although there were some slight fluctuations, the chemical composition of the lake water was relatively homogenous up to 100 m of depth. The chemical pattern suggested that there was no other secondary process that altered the chemical composition of the lake water, thus the lake water and river water had the same facies. The stratification of Lake Toba was found to be permanent. The depth of the hypolimnion layer was consistently at about 80 m below the surface. However, the depth of the upper layer, the epilimnion, was strongly affected by the climate at the surface of the lake.

Uncertainty in projections of future lake thermal dynamics is differentially driven by lake and global climate models

Freshwater ecosystems provide vital services, yet are facing increasing risks from global change. In particular, lake thermal dynamics have been altered around the world as a result of climate change, necessitating a predictive understanding of how climate will continue to alter lakes in the future as well as the associated uncertainty in these predictions. Numerous sources of uncertainty affect projections of future lake conditions but few are quantified, limiting the use of lake modeling projections as management tools. To quantify and evaluate the effects of two potentially important sources of uncertainty, lake model selection uncertainty and climate model selection uncertainty, we developed ensemble projections of lake thermal dynamics for a dimictic lake in New Hampshire, USA (Lake Sunapee). Our ensemble projections used four different climate models as inputs to five vertical one-dimensional (1-D) hydrodynamic lake models under three different climate change scenarios to simulate thermal metrics from 2006 to 2099. We found that almost all the lake thermal metrics modeled (surface water temperature, bottom water temperature, Schmidt stability, stratification duration, and ice cover, but not thermocline depth) are projected to change over the next century. Importantly, we found that the dominant source of uncertainty varied among the thermal metrics, as thermal metrics associated with the surface waters (surface water temperature, total ice duration) were driven primarily by climate model selection uncertainty, while metrics associated with deeper depths (bottom water temperature, stratification duration) were dominated by lake model selection uncertainty. Consequently, our results indicate that researchers generating projections of lake bottom water metrics should prioritize including multiple lake models for best capturing projection uncertainty, while those focusing on lake surface metrics should prioritize including multiple climate models. Overall, our ensemble modeling study reveals important information on how climate change will affect lake thermal properties, and also provides some of the first analyses on how climate model selection uncertainty and lake model selection uncertainty interact to affect projections of future lake dynamics.

Global change and plant-ecosystem functioning in freshwaters

Freshwater ecosystems are of worldwide importance for maintaining biodiversity and sustaining the provision of a myriad of ecosystem services to modern societies. Plants, one of the most important components of these ecosystems, are key to water nutrient removal, carbon storage, and food provision. Understanding how the functional connection between freshwater plants and ecosystems is affected by global change will be key to our ability to predict future changes in freshwater systems. Here, we synthesize global plant responses, adaptations, and feedbacks to present-day and future freshwater environments through trait-based approaches, from single individuals to entire communities. We outline the transdisciplinary knowledge benchmarks needed to further understand freshwater plant biodiversity and the fundamental services they provide.

The response of aquatic ecosystems to the interactive effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change

Variations in stratospheric ozone and changes in the aquatic environment by climate change and human activity are modifying the exposure of aquatic ecosystems to UV radiation. These shifts in exposure have consequences for the distributions of species, biogeochemical cycles, and services provided by aquatic ecosystems. This Quadrennial Assessment presents the latest knowledge on the multi-faceted interactions between the effects of UV irradiation and climate change, and other anthropogenic activities, and how these conditions are changing aquatic ecosystems. Climate change results in variations in the depth of mixing, the thickness of ice cover, the duration of ice-free conditions and inputs of dissolved organic matter, all of which can either increase or decrease exposure to UV radiation. Anthropogenic activities release oil, UV filters in sunscreens, and microplastics into the aquatic environment that are then modified by UV radiation, frequently amplifying adverse effects on aquatic organisms and their environments. The impacts of these changes in combination with factors such as warming and ocean acidification are considered for aquatic micro-organisms, macroalgae, plants, and animals (floating, swimming, and attached). Minimising the disruptive consequences of these effects on critical services provided by the world's rivers, lakes and oceans (freshwater supply, recreation, transport, and food security) will not only require continued adherence to the Montreal Protocol but also a wider inclusion of solar UV radiation and its effects in studies and/or models of aquatic ecosystems under conditions of the future global climate.

The pace of shifting seasons in lakes

Lake ecosystems are vulnerable to seasonal thermal cues, with subtle alterations in the timing of seasonal temperatures having a dramatic influence on aquatic species. Here, a measure of seasonal change in temperature is used to describe the pace of shifting seasons in lakes. Since 1980 spring and summer temperatures in Northern Hemisphere lakes have arrived earlier (2.0- and 4.3-days decade^-1, respectively), whilst the arrival of autumn has been delayed (1.5-days decade^-1) and the summer season lengthened (5.6-days decade^-1). This century, under a high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, current spring and summer temperatures will arrive even earlier (3.3- and 8.3-days decade^-1, respectively), autumn temperatures will arrive later (3.1-days decade^-1), and the summer season will lengthen further (12.1-days decade^-1). These seasonal alterations will be much slower under a low-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario. Changes in seasonal temperatures will benefit some species, by prolonging the growing season, but negatively impact others, by leading to phenological mismatches in critical activities.

Species invasions shift microbial phenology in a two-decade freshwater time series

Invasive species impart abrupt changes on ecosystems, but their impacts on microbial communities are often overlooked. We paired a 20 y freshwater microbial community time series with zooplankton and phytoplankton counts, rich environmental data, and a 6 y cyanotoxin time series. We observed strong microbial phenological patterns that were disrupted by the invasions of spiny water flea (Bythotrephes cederströmii) and zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha). First, we detected shifts in Cyanobacteria phenology. After the spiny water flea invasion, Cyanobacteria dominance crept earlier into clearwater; and after the zebra mussel invasion, Cyanobacteria abundance crept even earlier into the diatom-dominated spring. During summer, the spiny water flea invasion sparked a cascade of shifting diversity where zooplankton diversity decreased and Cyanobacteria diversity increased. Second, we detected shifts in cyanotoxin phenology. After the zebra mussel invasion, microcystin increased in early summer and the duration of toxin production increased by over a month. Third, we observed shifts in heterotrophic bacteria phenology. The Bacteroidota phylum and members of the acI Nanopelagicales lineage were differentially more abundant. The proportion of the bacterial community that changed differed by season; spring and clearwater communities changed most following the spiny water flea invasion that lessened clearwater intensity, while summer communities changed least following the zebra mussel invasion despite the shifts in Cyanobacteria diversity and toxicity. A modeling framework identified the invasions as primary drivers of the observed phenological changes. These long-term invasion-mediated shifts in microbial phenology demonstrate the interconnectedness of microbes with the broader food web and their susceptibility to long-term environmental change.

Temporal continuous monitoring of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu at an hourly scale using machine learning

Cyanobacterial blooms in most lakes exhibit extraordinary changes in time and space. Herein, a cyanobacterial prediction model was designed for Lake Taihu based on a machine learning method. This method can generate temporally continuous (24 moments throughout the day) cyanobacterial data at a fine spatial scale of 9 km. The hourly meteorological data for 24 moments of the day were obtained from ERA5-Land data. Areal coverage of cyanobacterial blooms was derived from the hourly Geostationary Ocean Color Imager reflectance data observed only eight times a day (from ~8:00 to ~15:00, UTC+8). The cyanobacterial and meteorological data of eight moments in Lake Taihu from 2011 to 2020 were used to design the prediction model. The results were compared and validated employing nine training strategies to determine the best cyanobacterial prediction model for Lake Taihu (R = 0.42; root mean square error = 0.10). With the best-fitted model utilizing meteorological data (2011-2020), the area coverage of cyanobacterial blooms at the other 16 moments during a day were estimated. Based on this, the regional and temporal characteristics of diurnal bloom variation were evaluated at an hourly scale. The results indicated that the hourly variations in the areal coverage of cyanobacterial blooms at 24 moments of the day had similar patterns in each subregion of Lake Taihu with minor seasonal variations. The six meteorological variables adopted to construct the model had similar diurnal changes but with diverse value ranges among the seasons. Further analysis revealed that three meteorological variables (temperature, surface pressure, and evaporation) were positively related to diurnal bloom variations at an hourly scale. Overall, these results illustrate that meteorological conditions can affect the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms at multiple time scales (e.g., hourly, daily, or monthly). The developed cyanobacterial prediction model can provide cyanobacterial data when cyanobacterial data is unavailable for the target waterbody.

Multivariable integrated risk assessment for cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic lakes and its spatiotemporal characteristics

Climate change has catalyzed the global expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic , lakes and threatens water security. In most studies, the cyanobacterial bloom risk levels in lakes were evaluated using field-collected data from multiple indicators or spatially continuous data from one cyanobacteria-related indicator. Nevertheless, the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms in lakes has clear spatial heterogeneity and is affected by numerous factors. Therefore, we developed a multivariable integrated risk assessment framework for cyanobacterial blooms in lakes using five spatially continuous datasets to estimate the risk level of cyanobacterial blooms at the pixel scale (250 m). The spatial and temporal variations in cyanobacterial bloom risk levels from May 1, 2002, to October 31, 2020, were investigated for three typical eutrophic lakes in China: Lakes Taihu, Chaohu, and Dianchi. Seasons and regions of high cyanobacterial bloom risk were identified for each lake. Environmental characteristics were discussed. A long-term investigation revealed that owing to its warm climate, the cyanobacterial risk levels in summer and autumn were much higher than those in the other two seasons. At the synoptic scale, Lake Taihu had a lower cyanobacterial bloom risk than Lakes Chaohu and Dianchi. A further comparison found that precipitation, wind speed, and temperature were responsible for the differences in cyanobacterial bloom risk levels among the three lakes. At the pixel scale, the risk map indicated that the cyanobacterial bloom risk levels of Lake Taihu were unevenly distributed, and the cyanobacterial bloom risk of the lakeshore was higher than that of the other subregions. Nutrient levels played the most critical role in the regional differences in cyanobacterial bloom risk levels in a lake. While the differences of cyanobacterial bloom risk levels in three lakes were resulted by the climates. Bloom events were defined and classified as "long-term bloom" or "flash bloom" according to their duration (over or below a year). Overall, this study can assist in advanced water management with a pixel-scale evaluation of cyanobacterial bloom risk levels.

Numerical analysis of the relationship between mixing regime, nutrient status, and climatic variables in Lake Biwa

As awareness of climate-related freshwater quality problems increases, more research is needed to better understand how climate impacts water quality. Climate has significant impacts on the mixing regime and nutrient status of lakes. However, the relationship between climatic variables, mixing regime, and nutrient status in large monomictic lakes requires further study. Here we applied a three-dimensional ecosystem model to the large monomictic Lake Biwa, where hypoxia had recurred over the past 60 years. The model was validated using monitoring data, and the relationships among mixing regime, nutrient status, and climatic variables have been investigated. The turnover timing, which represented the mixing regime, varied by 36 days and depended most on wind speed but least on air temperature. In the early period prior to waste-water treatment there was a strong linear relationship between phosphorus and deep-water dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. Following this period, the relationship weakened but remained significant. In addition, we find a weak relationship between turnover timing and deep-water DO concentrations. We suggest that later turnover timing may favor lower deep-water DO concentrations, which in turn may favor release of legacy nutrients from sediments. Although waste-water treatment has improved conditions in the lake, climate change induced alteration of turnover timing may adversely influence water quality. Maintaining water quality under continued warming may require more rigorous controls on phosphorus loading to the lake.