Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change

Exploring the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and the impacts of climate change and human activities on global grassland based on kNDVI

Grasslands provide essential resources and maintain ecological balance, yet about 40 % of the world's grasslands have degraded due to climate change and human activities. To investigate the impact of these factors on global grassland coverage from 2001 to 2023, the Kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) was calculated using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Spatio-temporal variations in global grassland kNDVI were analyzed with the Mann-Kendall mutation (M-K-M) test, Theil-Sen slope analysis, and the Mann-Kendall test. Partial correlation and residual analysis identified the factors influencing kNDVI changes. Results showed significant spatial heterogeneity in global grassland kNDVI, with higher values in the Southern Hemisphere and lower values in the Northern Hemisphere. Over time, global grassland kNDVI increased at a rate of 0.00043/a, with no significant mutation spots identified. However, significant mutations were detected in most Köppen climate zones except Am. Spatially, 34.57 % of regions showed kNDVI degradation, while 65.43 % improved. Driving factor analysis indicated that kNDVI was negatively correlated with mean annual temperature but positively correlated with total annual precipitation. Human activities positively impacted kNDVI in 73.25 % of cases. The smallest area of degradation (5.80 %) was due to human activity, while the least improvement (6.17 %) resulted from climate change. In summary, we concluded that there has been a rising trend in the global grassland kNDVI. Changes in the vegetation coverage of grasslands around the world were caused by human activities and the effects of climate change. This study offered useful theoretical frameworks and data references for managing grasslands and restoring degraded areas.

Biodiversity and Management as Central Players in the Network of Relationships Underlying Forest Resilience

Global change is threatening the integrity of forest ecosystems worldwide, amplifying the need for resilience-based management to ensure their conservation and sustain the services they provide. Yet, current efforts are still limited by the lack of implementation of clear frameworks for operationalizing resilience in decision-making processes. To overcome this limitation, we aim to identify reliable and effective drivers of forest resilience, considering their synergies and trade-offs. From a comprehensive review of 342 scientific articles addressing resilience in forests globally, we identified factors shaping forest resilience. We recognized them into two categories that influence forest responses to disturbances: resilience predictors, which can be modified through management, and codrivers, which are measurable but largely unmanageable (e.g., climate). We then performed network analyses based on predictors and codrivers underlying forest resilience. In total, we recognized 5332 such relationships linking predictors or codrivers with forest attributes resilience. Our findings support the central role of biodiversity, with mixed, non-planted, or functionally diverse forests promoting resilience across all contexts and biomes. While management also enhanced resilience, the success of specific interventions was highly context-dependent, suggesting that its application requires a careful analysis of trade-offs. Specifically, practices like cutting and prescribed burning generally enhanced resilience in terms of tree growth, plant diversity, landscape vegetation cover, and stand structure. In contrast, pest and herbivore control reduced the resilience of plant taxonomic diversity while offering only minimal gains for other variables. Even long-term restoration projects showed clear trade-offs in the resilience of different forest attributes, highlighting the need for careful consideration of these effects in practical management decisions. Overall, we emphasize that a reduced number of predictors can be used to effectively promote forest resilience across most attributes. Particularly, enhancing biodiversity and implementing targeted management strategies when biodiversity is impoverished emerge as powerful tools to promote forest resilience.

Increasing severity of large-scale fires prolongs recovery time of forests globally since 2001

Ongoing and sharply increased global forest fires, especially extreme large-scale fires (LFs) with their greater destructiveness, have significantly altered forest structures and functions. However, long-term variations in the severity of LFs and corresponding effects on the natural post-LF recovery time of global forests remain unclear. Here, we rigorously identified 3,281 global large-scale (>10 km2) single-time fire events (LSFs) from 2001 to 2021, and used multiple indicators to understand the post-LSF recovery dynamics from different perspectives and comprehensively reveal major driving factors across regions and forests types based on multiple models. Compared with pre-2010, LSFs after 2010 caused greater forest damage, with the fire severity expanding further from low to high latitudes and from humid to arid regions, particularly affecting evergreen needleleaf forests. Fewer than one-third of the forests recovered successfully within 7 years, and most of these were tropical, moisture-rich broadleaf forests. The average time required for three indicators to recover to pre-fire conditions increased by 7.5% (vegetation density), 11.1% (canopy structure) and 27.3% (gross primary productivity). Moreover, the positive sensitivity of recovery time to increased fire severity was significantly intensified. Notably, more forests experienced recovery stagnation with increased severity, especially in boreal forests, further extending recovery time. The negative impact of the severity of LSFs on forest recovery was much stronger than that of post-LSF climate conditions. Soil moisture after LSFs was identified as the primary facilitating factor. Temperature generally had a positive role before 2010, but a strong negative influence on post-LSF forest recovery after 2010. These findings provide a useful reference for better understanding global forest recovery mechanisms, estimating forest carbon sinks and implementing post-LSF management accordingly.

Post-fire spectral recovery and driving factors across the boreal and temperate forests

Increasingly frequent and severe forest fires, exacerbated by warmer and drier conditions, significantly affect forest ecosystems. Understanding the dynamics of post-fire forest recovery is crucial for assessing forest resilience and guiding forest management. However, most post-fire recovery studies focus primarily on spatial variation, while recovery changes over time are relatively less studied. In this study, we examined the patterns, trends and drivers of spectral recovery from forest fires that burned between 2002 and 2018 in boreal and temperate forests. We used relative recovery indicators (RRIs) developed from three spectral indices-the normalized burn ratio, normalized difference vegetation index and near-infrared reflectance of vegetation-to capture post-fire spectral recovery. Our results showed that post-fire spectral recovery rates in temperate forests are faster than those in boreal forests, with quicker recovery in regions with higher percentages of broad-leaved species, less severe fires, higher temperature and precipitation. The decline in spectral forest recovery rates of boreal forests indicates that boreal forest post-fire recovery is becoming increasingly challenging. Our work provides valuable insights into forest management and conservation in the face of increasing fire frequency and intensity.This article is part of the theme issue 'Novel fire regimes under climate changes and human influences: impacts, ecosystem responses and feedbacks'.

Ecosystem resilience response to forest fragmentation in China: Thresholds identification

Ecosystem resilience refers to the ability of ecosystems to maintain stability in structure and function when subjected to disturbances. Global declines in resilience, largely driven by climate variability and water constraints, have attracted significant attention. However, the impact of forest fragmentation, particularly its threshold effects, where a sudden shift in ecosystem structure or function occurs once environmental changes surpass a critical point, remains underexplored. To address this gap, we quantified the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest fragmentation and resilience in China from 1990 to 2022 using long-term land use data and satellite-derived vegetation indices, analyzing the consistency of their temporal trends. Using breakpoint regression, we identified thresholds for the impact of forest fragmentation on resilience and explored their applications in ecological management. The results show that approximately 30 % of forest areas have experienced increased fragmentation. Temporal variations in fragmentation and resilience exhibited an overall negative correlation, modulated by vegetation and underlying moisture conditions. Forest fragmentation created a distinct threshold effect on ecological resilience. Below this threshold, fragmentation does not significantly reduce resilience and may even enhance it. However, once fragmentation exceeds the threshold, resilience decreases significantly. Our findings provide valuable insights into the relationship between landscape spatial patterns and resilience, while the identified thresholds can guide the optimization of landscape management practices.

Satellite-based evidence of recent decline in global forest recovery rate from tree mortality events

Climate-driven forest mortality events have been extensively observed in recent decades, prompting the question of how quickly these affected forests can recover their functionality following such events. Here we assessed forest recovery in vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) and canopy water content (normalized difference infrared index) for 1,699 well-documented forest mortality events across 1,600 sites worldwide. By analysing 158,427 Landsat surface reflectance images sampled from these sites, we provided a global assessment on the time required for impacted forests to return to their pre-mortality state (recovery time). Our findings reveal a consistent decline in global forest recovery rate over the past decades indicated by both greenness and canopy water content. This decline is particularly noticeable since the 1990s. Further analysis on underlying mechanisms suggests that this reduction in global forest recovery rates is primarily associated with rising temperatures and increased water scarcity, while the escalation in the severity of forest mortality contributes only partially to this reduction. Moreover, our global-scale analysis reveals that the recovery of forest canopy water content lags significantly behind that of vegetation greenness, implying that vegetation indices based solely on greenness can overestimate post-mortality recovery rates globally. Our findings underscore the increasing vulnerability of forest ecosystems to future warming and water insufficiency, accentuating the need to prioritize forest conservation and restoration as an integral component of efforts to mitigate climate change impacts.

A pronounced decline in northern vegetation resistance to flash droughts from 2001 to 2022

Climate change has led to the transition of droughts into rapid and intensified phenomena known as flash droughts, presenting considerable challenges for risk management, particularly concerning their impact on ecosystem productivity. Quantifying the ecosystem's capacity to maintain productivity during flash droughts, referred to as ecosystem resistance, is crucial to assess drought impacts. However, it remains uncertain how the resistance of ecosystem productivity to flash drought changes over time. Here we show that vegetation resistance to flash droughts declines by up to 27% (±5%) over the Northern Hemisphere hotspots during 2001-2022, including eastern Asia, western North America, and northern Europe. The notable decline in vegetation resistance is mainly attributed to increased vapour pressure deficit and temperature, and enhanced vegetation structural sensitivity to water availability. Flash droughts pose higher ecological risks than slowly-developing droughts during the growing seasons, where ecosystem productivity experiences faster decline rates with a shorter response time. Our results underscore the limited ecosystem capacity to resist flash droughts under climate change.

Radiative impact of record-breaking wildfires from integrated ground-based data

The radiative effects of wildfires have been traditionally estimated by models using radiative transfer calculations. Assessment of model-predicted radiative effects commonly involves information on observation-based aerosol optical properties. However, lack or incompleteness of this information for dense plumes generated by intense wildfires reduces substantially the applicability of this assessment. Here we introduce a novel method that provides additional observational constraints for such assessments using widely available ground-based measurements of shortwave and spectrally resolved irradiances and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible and near-infrared spectral ranges. We apply our method to quantify the radiative impact of the record-breaking wildfires that occurred in the Western US in September 2020. For our quantification we use integrated ground-based data collected at the Atmospheric Measurements Laboratory in Richland, Washington, USA with a location frequently downwind of wildfires in the Western US. We demonstrate that remarkably dense plumes generated by these wildfires strongly reduced the solar surface irradiance (up to 70% or 450 Wm-2 for total shortwave flux) and almost completely masked the sun from view due to extremely large AOD (above 10 at 500 nm wavelength). We also demonstrate that the plume-induced radiative impact is comparable in magnitude with those produced by a violent volcano eruption occurred in the Western US in 1980 and continental cumuli.

Estimation of unrealized forest carbon potential in China using time-varying Boruta-SHAP-random forest model and climate vegetation productivity index

Forest carbon storage is the net result of carbon gained through photosynthesis and carbon lost through respiration, mortality, and disturbances. It plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change as a key component of the global carbon cycle. To understand the "realized" (actual carbon stored in the forest) and "unrealized" (the difference between the maximum potential carbon storage under current climate conditions and actual stored) potential carbon storage of forests in China, as well as their spatial distribution, is crucial for developing effective forest management strategies to enhance carbon sinks and reduce emissions. To estimate the forest realized potential carbon density/storage (RPCD/RPCS) in China, this study used a Time-varying Boruta-SHAP-Random Forest Model (TBS-RF), while the Paterson's Climate Vegetation Productivity (CVP) index was employed to determine the forest potential carbon density/storage (PCD/PCS) in China. The results reveal several key insights: (1) The average RPCD of Chinese forests is 56.12 Mg C/ha, with a total forest RPCS of 7.96 Pg C, indicating that China's forests play a significant role in carbon sequestration. (2) The Alpine Subtropical region exhibits the highest forest RPCD (96.89 Mg C/ha), attributed to its high precipitation and rich biodiversity, while the Mid-subtropical region shows the highest forest RPCS (1.92 Pg C), highlighting its significant contribution to national carbon storage. (3) The average productivity potential of Chinese forests is 10.00 m3 ha-1·a-1. (4) The Alpine Subtropical region shows the highest forest unrealized potential carbon density (UPCD) at 202.91 Mg C/ha, emphasizing the region's latent capacity for increased carbon sequestration, while its forest unrealized potential carbon storage (UPCS) reaches 0.85 Pg C. This underscores the region's vast untapped capacity for contributing to carbon sink strategies, reflecting the considerable gap between current and potential carbon sequestration in many forested areas across China.

Exploring the resilience of global vegetation ecosystem: Nonlinearity, driving forces, and management

Vegetation resilience, characterized by the ability of vegetation to maintain stable states, is considered fundamental to ecosystems' structural and functional stability. Under the background of vegetation ecosystems being increasingly endangered by numerous disturbances, determining the nonlinear changing trend of the recovery rate of vegetation to external disturbances and its response to various forces is paramount. Herein, we quantified the global vegetation resilience and its regime shifts by measuring the lag-1 autocorrelation to the interannual kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) from 1982 to 2020, clarified the contribution rates of driving forces on vegetation resilience variation by partial correlation analysis. Results revealed that global vegetation resilience experienced abrupt change and reversed to a decreased trend after the turning point of 2004, with a rate of -3.17 × 10-4 (p < 0.05), especially in Australia, Africa, and southern South America, revealing the vegetation degradation masked by linear analysis. Spatially, nearly a quarter of the global land faced persistent reduction in vegetation resilience, mainly concentrated in tropical, temperate, and arid zones. CO2 concentration dominated the vegetation resilience variation in the past three decades and showed an increased effect over time, covering an area proportion from 37.0% to 42.5%. However, there were obvious differences in the driving forces of resilience variation among different vegetation types. Among them, rising CO2 concentration and temperature caused the resilience decreasing of needleleaf forests; the increase of precipitation and CO2 concentration enhanced the resilience of tropical forests; soil moisture was the primary force limiting the resilience enhancement of shrubs; a moderate rise in vapor pressure deficit could enhance vegetation resilience, particularly for deciduous needleleaf forest and closed shrubland; surface solar radiation played an important role in resilience enhancement of forests, and showed notable scale variations. Further, the compounding effects between different forces were identified, and targeted measures must be implemented to mitigate the disturbance of climate change to vegetation ecosystems.

Asymmetric sensitivity of boreal forest resilience to forest gain and loss

Forest gains and losses may have unequal effects on forest resilience, particularly given their distinct temporal dynamics. Here, we quantify the sensitivities of boreal forest resilience to forest cover gain and loss using a resilience indicator derived from the temporal autocorrelation (TAC) of the kernel normalized difference vegetation index from 2000 to 2020. Our findings unveil pronounced asymmetric sensitivities, with stronger sensitivity to forest loss (-4.26 ± 0.14 × 10-3; TAC increase per 1% forest cover loss) than to forest gain (-1.65 ± 0.12 × 10-3; TAC decrease per 1% forest cover gain). Locally, ~73% of the boreal forest exhibits negative sensitivity, indicating enhanced resilience with forest cover gain and vice versa, especially in intact forests compared to managed ones. This sensitivity is affected by various trajectories in forest cover change, stemming primarily from temporal asynchrony in the recovery rates of various ecosystem functions. The observed asymmetry underscores the importance of prioritizing forest conservation over reactive management strategies following losses, ultimately contributing to more sustainable forest management practices.

Optimization of landscape ecological risk assessment method and ecological management zoning considering resilience

Currently, landscape ecological risk (LER) assessment faces issues such as strong subjectivity and limited applicability in ecological zoning. Therefore, this research attempts to optimize the LER assessment model by evaluating landscape vulnerability based on ecosystem services and to conduct ecological management zoning in combination with ecosystem resilience (ER), taking the Luo River Watershed in the eastern part of the Qinling Mountains as the study area. This research selected appropriate analytical granularity and assessment units at the watershed scale and evaluated the of LER and ER based on these. Subsequently, the spatial correlation between LER and ER was analyzed, and bivariate Moran's index was utilized for ecological management zoning. Finally, the main influencing factors of LER and ER were identified through the use of geographical detectors. From 2001 to 2021, the regional LER increased overall, with a spatial distribution showing lower values in the west and higher values in the east. Spatially, LER exhibited a decreasing trend as ER increased, with a relationship approximating a quadratic function. Based on LER and ER, the study area can be divided into ecological adaptation region, ecological conservation region, and ecological restoration region. The distribution differences between ecological conservation region and ecological restoration region were evident, and both zones exhibited an expanding trend. Land use type was a key factor influencing LER and ER, followed by elevation and climate. The improved LER assessment model helps to more reasonably reflect the regional LER level and provides support for optimizing LER assessment models. Additionally, this research enriches zoning methodologies in the field of ecological restoration and offers important references for the implementation of ecological management and ecological restoration strategies in similar regions.

Monitoring Terrestrial Ecosystem Resilience Using Earth Observation Data: Identifying Consensus and Limitations Across Metrics

Resilience is a key feature of ecosystem dynamics reflecting a system's ability to resist and recover from environmental perturbations. Slowing down in the rate of recovery has been used as an early-warning signal for abrupt transitions. Recent advances in Earth observation (EO) vegetation data provide the capability to capture broad-scale resilience patterns and identify regions experiencing resilience loss. However, the proliferation of methods for evaluating resilience using EO data has introduced significant uncertainty, leading to contradictory resilience estimates across approximately 73% of the Earth's land surface. To reconcile these perspectives, we review the range of methods and associated metrics that capture aspects of ecosystem resilience using EO data. Using a principal component analysis, we empirically test the relationships between the most widely used resilience metrics and explore emergent patterns within and among the world's biomes. Our analysis reveals that the 10 resilience metrics aggregate into four core components of ecosystem dynamics, highlighting the multidimensional nature of ecosystem resilience. We also find that ecosystems with slower recovery are more resistant to drought extremes. Furthermore, the relationships between resilience metrics vary across the world's biomes and vegetation types. These results illustrate the inherent differences in the dynamics of natural systems and highlight the need for careful consideration when evaluating broad-scale resilience patterns across biomes. Our findings provide valuable insights for identifying global resilience patterns, which are critically needed to inform policy decisions and guide conservation efforts globally.

Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs?

Many components of the Earth system feature self-reinforcing feedback processes that can potentially scale up a small initial change to a fundamental state change of the underlying system in a sometimes abrupt or irreversible manner beyond a critical threshold. Such tipping points can be found across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and are expressed in very different observable variables. For example, early-warning signals of approaching critical transitions may manifest in localised spatial pattern formation of vegetation within years as observed for the Amazon rainforest. In contrast, the susceptibility of ice sheets to tipping dynamics can unfold at basin to sub-continental scales, over centuries to even millennia. Accordingly, to improve the understanding of the underlying processes, to capture present-day system states and to monitor early-warning signals, tipping point science relies on diverse data products. To that end, Earth observation has proven indispensable as it provides a broad range of data products with varying spatio-temporal scales and resolutions. Here we review the observable characteristics of selected potential climate tipping systems associated with the multiple stages of a tipping process: This includes i) gaining system and process understanding, ii) detecting early-warning signals for resilience loss when approaching potential tipping points and iii) monitoring progressing tipping dynamics across scales in space and time. By assessing how well the observational requirements are met by the Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), we identify gaps in the portfolio and what is needed to better characterise potential candidate tipping elements. Gaps have been identified for the Amazon forest system (vegetation water content), permafrost (ground subsidence), Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, AMOC (section mass, heat and fresh water transports and freshwater input from ice sheet edges) and ice sheets (e.g. surface melt). For many of the ECVs, issues in specifications have been identified. Of main concern are spatial resolution and missing variables, calling for an update of the ECVS or a separate, dedicated catalogue of tipping variables.

Losing half the crown hardly affects the stem growth of a xeric southern beech population

Globally, forest ecosystems face increasing climate warming-driven stress. Crown dieback is commonly used as an indicator of declining tree vitality and is closely related to reduced stem radial growth rates. In a xeric northern Patagonian Nothofagus pumilio population, in which the majority of trees possess damaged crowns, we explored the relationship between percent crown damage and growth trends (basal area increment, BAI), interannual growth variability, and the climate sensitivity of growth. The majority of trees show stable BAI since about 1940 despite 5 to > 50% crown damage, which ranges from dieback of small branches to the presence of decades-old snagged branches. A minority of trees with more severe crown damage (> 50 to 95%) show continued growth decline during the last 80 years, but have not yet died. Crown damage was the best predictor of the BAI trend which turned negative at about 50% damage. Stronger damaged trees showed a higher growth sensitivity to summer heat and drought. Thus, the health of this population is apparently not threatened by crown damage up to 50%. Rather, trees might profit from the reduced foliage area, allowing them to stabilize their water relations and maintain stable but fairly slow growth in a drying climate.

The temperate forest phyllosphere and rhizosphere microbiome: a case study of sugar maple

The interactions between sugar maple (Acer saccharum, Marshall) and its microbial communities are important for tree fitness, growth, and establishment. Despite recent progress in our understanding of the rhizosphere and phyllosphere microbial communities of sugar maple, many outstanding knowledge gaps remain. This review delves into the relationships between sugar maple and its microbes, as climate change alters plant species distributions. It highlights the multifaceted roles of key microbes, such as arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and pathogens, in affecting the distribution and establishment of sugar maple in novel habitats. Furthermore, this review examines how microbial communities in different compartments contribute to tree fitness. Finally, it explores how microbial dispersal and altered species interactions under changing environmental conditions can affect sugar maple's ability to migrate beyond its current range, emphasizing the different scenarios associated with such shifts. In the rhizosphere, AM fungi are known for their roles in nutrient acquisition and improving stress tolerance. Yet, key questions remain about how these fungi interact with other microbes, how soil chemistry and climate change alter these interactions, and how the presence of beneficial microbes influences sugar maple's establishment. Additionally, the role of dark septate endophytes (DSE) in sugar maple's fitness remains underexplored, emphasizing the need for more research on their diversity and functions. In the phyllosphere, microbial communities are subject to shifts due to rising global change, with potential impacts on sugar maple's fitness. These changes may influence the tree's resistance to pathogens, tolerance to environmental stress, and overall health. Yet, our understanding of these interactions relies mostly on short-read sequencing methods targeting marker genes (e.g., 16S, ITS, 18S), which often fail to identify microbes at the species level. Limitations in molecular techniques and poor microbial reference databases hinder our ability to fully characterize tree-associated microbial diversity and functions. Future research should thus prioritize advanced molecular tools such as shotgun, hybrid, or long-read sequencing. Controlled experiments are also needed to establish causal links between sugar maple fitness and microbial communities, and to study whether microbial communities change throughout the tree's lifespan.

De novo transcriptome assembly and discovery of drought-responsive genes in white spruce (Picea glauca)

Forests face an escalating threat from the increasing frequency of extreme drought events driven by climate change. To address this challenge, it is crucial to understand how widely distributed species of economic or ecological importance may respond to drought stress. In this study, we examined the transcriptome of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) to identify key genes and metabolic pathways involved in the species' response to water stress. We assembled a de novo transcriptome, performed differential gene expression analyses at four time points over 22 days during a controlled drought stress experiment involving 2-year-old plants and three genetically distinct clones, and conducted gene enrichment analyses. The transcriptome assembly and gene expression analysis identified a total of 33,287 transcripts corresponding to 18,934 annotated unique genes, including 4,425 genes that are uniquely responsive to drought. Many transcripts that had predicted functions associated with photosynthesis, cell wall organization, and water transport were down-regulated under drought conditions, while transcripts linked to abscisic acid response and defense response were up-regulated. Our study highlights a previously uncharacterized effect of drought stress on lipid metabolism genes in conifers and significant changes in the expression of several transcription factors, suggesting a regulatory response potentially linked to drought response or acclimation. Our research represents a fundamental step in unraveling the molecular mechanisms underlying short-term drought responses in white spruce seedlings. In addition, it provides a valuable source of new genetic data that could contribute to genetic selection strategies aimed at enhancing the drought resistance and resilience of white spruce to changing climates.

Monitoring and assessment of desertification reversal in ecologically fragile areas: A case study of the Mu Us Sandy Land

Desertification is a major obstacle to global sustainable development, and effective monitoring and understanding of its driving factors are crucial to the realization of sustainable development. Driven by national policies, the Mu Us Sandy Land has effectively reversed desertification, showing multiple win-win results in ecological, economic and social benefits. However, due to the lack of long-term continuous dynamic monitoring data, its dynamic development pattern and multidimensional driving factors are still controversial. Therefore, it is urgent to implement long-term desertification monitoring and quantitative assessment, especially to assess the contribution of ecological restoration policies to desertification control. Based on the Google Earth Engine and combined with multi-source remote sensing data, this study produced a set of high-precision LUCC and FVC data of the Mu Us Sandy Land from 1986 to 2020. The dataset of LUCC was verified by random sampling based on field surveys and remote sensing images, and the overall accuracy was 90.03%. Based on these two sets of data, the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of desertification and ecological restoration in the region are further analyzed and revealed. We found that the desertification land in the Mu Us Sandy Land decreased by 69.45% from 1986 to 2020, and the gravity center gradually moved to the northwest away from human aggregation. The area of various vegetation types increased and expanded to the original desertification area. The average FVC in the Mu Us Sandy Land increased by 26.98%, and Yulin contributed the most to the growth of FVC. These results show that the desertification in the Mu Us Sandy Land has been basically reversed. This study also provides solid data support and a scientific basis for evaluating the effectiveness of ecological restoration policies and guiding future desertification control.

Urbanization weakens vegetation resilience in the Pearl River Delta, China

Rapid urbanization has introduced increasingly complex social-ecological processes, intensifying the impacts on vegetation growth. Assessing urban vegetation resilience is critical to understanding urban vegetation growth. However, the current understanding of vegetation resilience in highly urbanized areas, especially regarding the influence of human activities, remains limited, constraining efforts toward sustainable urban vegetation management. In this study, we identified the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of urban vegetation resilience in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) using the lag-one autocorrelation coefficient (AC1) of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from Landsat imagery. Referring to the general conceptual framework for quantifying the impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth, we assessed the impacts of urbanization on vegetation resilience in the PRD urban agglomeration from 1998 to 2022. Results revealed that 21% of the urban area experienced one to five vegetation loss events, primarily lasting 1-2 years. Although vegetation growth was enhanced along the urbanization intensity gradient, a significant (p < 0.05) downward trend in vegetation resilience was observed, indicating that urbanization restricted the stability and sustainability of urban vegetation. By distinguishing between direct and indirect impacts, we found that the indirect impacts of urbanization on vegetation resilience gradually outweighed the direct impacts over time. Our findings further demonstrate that while intensive management can promote regreening in urban settings, maintaining the prevalent stability of urban vegetation remains challenging. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the human impact on vegetation resilience and offer significant implications for seeking directions to improve urban vegetation resilience.

Continuous Abrupt Vegetation Shifts in the Global Terrestrial Ecosystem

Previous studies have primarily focused on single abrupt shifts; however, the actual ecosystem will experience continuous abrupt shifts (CAS), including different directions shifts (DDS) and same direction shifts (SDS). The patterns and drivers of these CAS remain unclear. We examined the patterns of the DDS and SDS by two vegetation datasets and then tested climate drivers comprising atmospheric temperature (MAT), atmospheric precipitation (MAP), soil temperature (ST) and soil water content (SW); finally, hysteresis effects were examined with reference to principal drivers. The results demonstrate that the DDS and SDS varied across climatic regions. The ST, SW, MAT and MAP were the primary drivers of the DDS, while the MAT and MAP were the primary drivers of the SDS. Furthermore, the presence of hysteresis effects was validated via the DDS. This study presents the widespread occurrence of the CAS and the divergent roles of climate change on the DDS and SDS globally.

Warming and disturbances affect Arctic-boreal vegetation resilience across northwestern North America

Rapid warming and increasing disturbances in high-latitude regions have caused extensive vegetation shifts and uncertainty in future carbon budgets. Better predictions of vegetation dynamics and functions require characterizing resilience, which indicates the capability of an ecosystem to recover from perturbations. Here, using temporal autocorrelation of remotely sensed greenness, we quantify time-varying vegetation resilience during 2000-2019 across northwestern North American Arctic-boreal ecosystems. We find that vegetation resilience significantly decreased in southern boreal forests, including forests showing greening trends, while it increased in most of the Arctic tundra. Warm and dry areas with high elevation and dense vegetation cover were among the hotspots of reduced resilience. Resilience further declined both before and after forest losses and fires, especially in southern boreal forests. These findings indicate that warming and disturbance have been altering vegetation resilience, potentially undermining the expected long-term increase of high-latitude carbon uptake under future climate.

Resilience Indicators for Tropical Rainforests in a Dynamic Vegetation Model

Tropical forests and particularly the Amazon rainforest have been identified as potential tipping elements in the Earth system. According to a dynamical systems theory, a decline in forest resilience preceding a potential shift to a savanna-like biome could manifest as increasing autocorrelation of biomass time series. Recent satellite records indeed exhibit such a trend and also show larger autocorrelation, indicative of reduced resilience, in drier forest regions. However, it is unclear which processes underlie these observational findings and on which scales they operate. Here, we investigate which processes determine tropical forest resilience in the stand-alone, state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL. We find that autocorrelation is higher in dry climates than wet climates (approx. 0.75 vs. 0.2, for a lag of 10 years), which qualitatively agrees with observations. By constructing a reduced version of LPJmL and by disabling and enabling certain processes in the model, we show that (i) this pattern is associated with population dynamics operating on different time scales in different climates and (ii) that the pattern is sensitive to the allocation of carbon to different pools, especially in years of stress. Both processes are highly uncertain, oversimplified or even lacking in most Earth system models. Our results indicate that the observed spatial variations and trends in vegetation resilience indicators may be explained by local physiological and ecological mechanisms alone, without climate-vegetation feedbacks. In principle, this is consistent with the view that the Amazon rainforest is responding to climate change locally and does not necessarily need to approach one large-scale tipping point, although the latter cannot be ruled out based on our findings.

Dominant drivers of vegetation changes in key ecological barrier of northeastern Tibetan Plateau since 2000: Human impacts or natural forces?

Human activities and natural forces have profoundly influenced vegetation ecosystems in the Tibetan Plateau over the recent decades. However, contributions of these two driving forces to vegetation changes remain controversial, especially in the ecological barriers like the Qilian Mountains (QM) in the northeast where many protecting measures and strategies were applied to enhance ecosystem stability and services. Our study employed a process-based model and a multi-perspective assessment method to determine dominant drivers of vegetation changes in the QM since 2000. The result indicated that human activity changes contributed 40.74% to the significant vegetation amelioration of the QM as a whole, which is comparable to natural forces. Areas dominated by human activity changes accounted for 18.42% of the entire region, which were mainly distributed in grassland restoration area, oasis agricultural area and forestry protection area. In these areas, increased human activities (including desertified grassland restoration, agricultural irrigation and fertilization, forest protections and afforestation) mainly promoted the vegetation amelioration. Yet, natural forces resulted in amelioration in partial alpine grasslands in southeastern QM, accounting for 10.53% in area. Areas dominated by both human activity changes and natural forces, mainly in grazing grasslands, accounted for 47.80%. Variations in grazing intensity and climate jointly determined fluctuations in vegetation therein. Additionally, there remained 23.25% areas lack of obvious drivers, generally with sparse vegetation. Ecological protections and agricultural measures significantly promoted the vegetation amelioration of the QM since 2000. The findings could provide essential insights for protection and construction of the ecological barriers in the Tibetan Plateau.

LiPheStream - A 18-month high spatiotemporal resolution point cloud time series of Boreal trees from Finland

In the present paper, we introduce a high-resolution spatiotemporal point cloud time series, acquired using a LiDAR sensor mounted 30 metres above ground on a flux observation tower monitoring a boreal forest. The dataset comprises a 18-month long (April 2020 - September 2021) time series with an average interval of 3.5 days between observations. The data acquisition, transfer, and storage systems established at Hyytiälä (Finland) are named the LiDAR Phenology station (LiPhe). The dataset consists of 103 time points of LiDAR point clouds covering a total of 458 individual trees, comprising three distinct Boreal species. Additional reference information includes the respective location, the species, and the initial height (at the first time point) of each individual tree. The processing scripts are included to outline the workflow used to generate the individual tree point clouds (LiPheKit). The presented dataset offers a comprehensive insight into inter- and intra-species variations of the individual trees regarding their growth strategies, phenological dynamics, and other functioning processes over two growth seasons.

Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects

Large-scale afforestation programmes are generally presented as effective ways of increasing the terrestrial carbon sink while preserving water availability and biodiversity. Yet, a meta-analysis of both numerical and observational studies suggests that further research is needed to support this view. The use of inappropriate concepts (e.g., the biotic pump theory), the poor simulation of key processes (e.g., tree mortality, water use efficiency), and the limited model ability to capture recent observed trends (e.g., increasing water vapour deficit, terrestrial carbon uptake) should all draw our attention to the limitations of available theories and Earth System Models. Observations, either based on remote sensing or on early afforestation initiatives, also suggest potential trade-offs between terrestrial carbon uptake and water availability. There is thus a need to better monitor and physically understand the observed fluctuations of the terrestrial water and carbon cycles to promote suitable nature-based mitigation pathways depending on pre-existing vegetation, scale, as well as baseline and future climates.

Applications of CRISPR Technologies in Forestry and Molecular Wood Biotechnology

Forests worldwide are under increasing pressure from climate change and emerging diseases, threatening their vital ecological and economic roles. Traditional breeding approaches, while valuable, are inherently slow and limited by the long generation times and existing genetic variation of trees. CRISPR technologies offer a transformative solution, enabling precise and efficient genome editing to accelerate the development of climate-resilient and productive forests. This review provides a comprehensive overview of CRISPR applications in forestry, exploring its potential for enhancing disease resistance, improving abiotic stress tolerance, modifying wood properties, and accelerating growth. We discuss the mechanisms and applications of various CRISPR systems, including base editing, prime editing, and multiplexing strategies. Additionally, we highlight recent advances in overcoming key challenges such as reagent delivery and plant regeneration, which are crucial for successful implementation of CRISPR in trees. We also delve into the potential and ethical considerations of using CRISPR gene drive for population-level genetic alterations, as well as the importance of genetic containment strategies for mitigating risks. This review emphasizes the need for continued research, technological advancements, extensive long-term field trials, public engagement, and responsible innovation to fully harness the power of CRISPR for shaping a sustainable future for forests.

Increased stress from compound drought and heat events on vegetation

Compound drought and heat events (CDHEs), which are frequently occurring compound extreme climate events, have garnered considerable attention because of their detrimental effects on ecosystems. However, the intricacies of the spatial and temporal distributions of different durations of compound events, along with the variability in vegetation responses remain unclear. Here, we delineated the CDHEs based on meteorological observation data and investigated the spatial and temporal characteristics of CDHEs from 1993 to 2020 using the Theil-Sen trend test and Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. Furthermore, we utilized sliding correlation analysis to evaluate the impacts of CDHEs on vegetation among different climatic regions and ecosystems. Our findings indicate significant increasing trends in both the frequency and persistence of CDHEs from 1993 to 2020. The average trend of CDHEs frequency across different duration periods amounted to 13.80 %/decade. The fractional contribution of CDHEs lasting more than three days exhibited a significant increase, with an average trend of 2.00 %/decade. We also observed that vegetation is most significantly affected by compound events lasting 5-9 days. During the study period, the geographical extent of vegetation significantly impacted by CDHEs expanded by 0.89 %, correlation strength increased by 0.02, and lag time decreased by 0.25 months. These insights highlight the growing impact of CDHEs on vegetation under climate change, improving our understanding of vegetation responses to these compound events.

Investigation of the impact of diverse climate conditions on the cultivation suitability of Cinnamomum cassia using the MaxEnt model, HPLC and chemometric methods in China

Cinnamomum cassia Presl. is a subtropical plant that is used for food and medicine. Climate change has changed the suitable habitats of medicinal plants, which might have repercussions for the efficacy of herbal remedies. In this study, the potential distribution in each period of Cinnamomum cassia was predicted and the quality in different suitable habitats was evaluated. According to the results, (1) precipitation, temperature, and soil are the primary environmental variables influencing C. cassia distribution. (2) The high-suitable habitats of current climate scenarios were predominantly located in the southern regions (Guangdong and Guangxi etc.) of China, with an area of 706,129.08 km2. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats will increasingly move northward, with a greater concentration south of the Yangtze River, particularly in the 2090s SSP585 scenario, the total area of newly extended suitable habitat reaches 312,963.53 km2. (3) HPLC and FTIR, combined with chemometrics, can be effective methods for identifying different suitable habitats of C. cassia. The content of trans-cinnamaldehyde (0.85%) is significantly higher in the high suitability habitat compared to the medium-low suitability habitat (0.30%). Our findings can offer valuable guidance for the identification of suitable C. cassia cultivation areas in China, as well as for the evaluation of C. cassia resource quality and the rational use of resources in different suitable habitats.

Vegetation resilience assessment and its climatic driving factors: Evidence from surface coal mines in northern China

Vegetation resilience is a key concept for understanding ecosystem responses to disturbances and is essential for maintaining ecosystem sustainability. However, assessing vegetation resilience remains challenging, especially for areas with significant disturbances and ecological restoration, such as surface coal mine ecosystems. Vegetation resilience assessment requires a combination of disturbance magnitude, recovery magnitude, and recovery time. In this study, we propose a vegetation resilience assessment method by integrating disturbance magnitude, recovery magnitude and recovery time. Forty-six surface coal mines in northern China were analysed as the study areas. A geographical detector model was used to explore the influence of climatic factors on vegetation resilience. The results indicated that the vegetation resilience curves included three shapes, inverted U-shaped, S-shaped, and monotonically decreasing, and the different disturbance-recovery relationships of the curves indicated that natural and social factors jointly changed the ecological restoration process. The vegetation resilience of the 46 surface coal mines varies widely, ranging from 0.87 to 7.22, showing a spatial decreasing trend from east to west. The explanatory power of different climatic factors on vegetation resilience by indirectly affecting hydrothermal conditions varies, with the effect of atmospheric pressure being the most significant and the superposition of the two climatic factors enhancing the effect on vegetation resilience. This study enriches the understanding of vegetation resilience assessment and provides important information to guide the differentiation of ecological restoration and resource development of surface coal mines in different regions.

Compound hot-dry events greatly prolong the recovery time of dryland ecosystems

Compound hot-dry events cause more severe impacts on terrestrial ecosystems than dry events, while the differences in recovery time (ΔRT) between hot-dry and dry events and their contributing factors remain unclear. Both remote sensing observations and eddy covariance measurements reveal that hot-dry events prolong the recovery time compared with dry events, with greater prolongation of recovery time in drylands than in humid regions. Random forest regression modeling demonstrates that the difference in vapor pressure deficit between hot-dry and dry events, with an importance score of 35%, is the major factor contributing to ΔRT. The severity of stomatal restriction exceeds that of non-stomatal limitation, which restricts the vegetation productivity that is necessary for the recovery process. These results emphasize the negative effect of vapor pressure deficit on vegetation recovery during hot-dry events and project an extension of drought recovery time considering elevated vapor pressure deficit in a warming world.

Experiences of ecosystem changes on food services of mopane woodland communities in Vhembe, South Africa

Mopane woodlands have been shifting. While it is important to understand the spatial patterns that characterise this phenomenon, it is even more important to understand the impacts of shifting Mopane woodlands on rural communities that rely on them. This study sought to establish the impacts of shifting mopane woodlands on the production of indigenous plant food in Ward 12 of Musina local municipality in the Vhembe District municipality in the Limpopo province of South Africa. To accomplish this, the study utilised a hybrid inductive approach involving thematic-based questionnaire interviews and an exploratory view to gain insight into the narratives of focus group participants. Results revealed that seven (7) out of eleven (11) indigenous plant foods are becoming extinct, thereby limiting food sources of indigenous and local people who used to rely on them. The spatial pattern of the plant foods that are still available has now changed as they no longer grow within the reach of local communities. The community members are struggling to adapt to these changes. From these observations, we recommend that local and regional levels' policies related to natural resource management should consider the unique challenges faced by communities experiencing disruptive ecosystem changes and provide the necessary support for sustainable adaptation.

The Ecosystem as Super-Organ/ism, Revisited: Scaling Hydraulics to Forests under Climate Change

Classic debates in community ecology focused on the complexities of considering an ecosystem as a super-organ or organism. New consideration of such perspectives could clarify mechanisms underlying the dynamics of forest carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake and water vapor loss, important for predicting and managing the future of Earth's ecosystems and climate system. Here, we provide a rubric for considering ecosystem traits as aggregated, systemic, or emergent, i.e., representing the ecosystem as an aggregate of its individuals or as a metaphorical or literal super-organ or organism. We review recent approaches to scaling-up plant water relations (hydraulics) concepts developed for organs and organisms to enable and interpret measurements at ecosystem-level. We focus on three community-scale versions of water relations traits that have potential to provide mechanistic insight into climate change responses of forest CO2 and H2O gas exchange and productivity: leaf water potential (Ψcanopy), pressure volume curves (eco-PV), and hydraulic conductance (Keco). These analyses can reveal additional ecosystem-scale parameters analogous to those typically quantified for leaves or plants (e.g., wilting point and hydraulic vulnerability) that may act as thresholds in forest responses to drought, including growth cessation, mortality, and flammability. We unite these concepts in a novel framework to predict Ψcanopy and its approaching of critical thresholds during drought, using measurements of Keco and eco-PV curves. We thus delineate how the extension of water relations concepts from organ- and organism-scales can reveal the hydraulic constraints on the interaction of vegetation and climate and provide new mechanistic understanding and prediction of forest water use and productivity.

The advantage of afforestation using native tree species to enhance soil quality in degraded forest ecosystems

Different vegetation restoration methods have improved soil quality to varying degrees. This study, focused on the forest-grassland-desert transition zone in the Hebei-Inner Mongolia border region, and employed a systematic grid sampling method to establish fixed monitoring plots in the Saihanba Mechanized Forest Farm and the Ulan Buh Grassland. The differences in soil quality evolution across various vegetation restoration methods under the same climatic and soil historical conditions were analyzed, elucidating the roles of these vegetation restoration methods in degraded forest ecosystems, with the aim of providing a reference for ecological restoration under similar land conditions. This study used a grid method to establish sample points in the forest-grassland-desert transitional zone and assessed five methods of vegetation restoration sites: artificial forest composed of native species of Larix principis-rupprechtii (FL), artificial forest composed of exotic Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica (FP), natural secondary broad-leaved forest (FN), open grassland (GO), and enclosed grassland (GC). The differences in soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), total potassium (TK), alkaline hydrolysis nitrogen (AN), rapidly available phosphorus (AP) and rapidly available potassium (AK) among the different vegetation restoration sites were compared via variance analysis, and the soil quality index (SQI) was calculated to assess the soil quality at the sample points. The SOC, TN, and AN contents of forest soil were significantly greater than those of grassland, and the TN, TP, AN, AK, and SOC contents of FL, FN, and GC were significantly greater than those of FP and GO. Among them, the TN, TP, and SOC contents were the highest in the FL, reaching 2.74, 0.39, and 47.27 g kg-1, respectively. In terms of ecological stoichiometric characteristics, the average N:P ratio in the study area was 6.68, indicating a serious lack of N in the study area. Among the different types of restoration sites, the effect was stronger in the FP than in the FL, and the TN and AN contents were only 1.48 g kg-1 and 116.69 mg kg-1, respectively. The SQI in the FL was not significantly different from that in the FN or GC, but it was significantly greater than that in the FP and GO. These findings indicate that native tree species restoration in degraded forest ecosystems significantly improved soil quality, while the introduction of exotic tree species for afforestation had a minimal effect on improving soil quality.

Shaping and enhancing resilient forests for a resilient society

The world is currently facing uncertainty caused by environmental, social, and economic changes and by political shocks. Fostering social-ecological resilience by enhancing forests' ability to provide a range of ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, habitat provision, and sustainable livelihoods, is key to addressing such uncertainty. However, policy makers and managers currently lack a clear understanding of how to operationalise the shaping of resilience through the combined challenges of climate change, the biodiversity crisis, and changes in societal demand. Based on a scientific literature review, we identified a set of actions related to ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, and disturbance and pressure impacts that forest managers and policy makers should attend to enhance the resilience of European forest systems. We conclude that the resilience shaping of forests should (1) adopt an operational approach, which is currently lacking, (2) identify and address existing and future trade-offs while reinforcing win-wins and (3) attend to local particularities through an adaptive management approach.

Stand age diversity (and more than climate change) affects forests' resilience and stability, although unevenly

Stand age significantly influences the functioning of forest ecosystems by shaping structural and physiological plant traits, affecting water and carbon budgets. Forest age distribution is determined by the interplay of tree mortality and regeneration, influenced by both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Unfortunately, human-driven alteration of tree age distribution presents an underexplored avenue for enhancing forest stability and resilience. In our study, we investigated how age impacts the stability and resilience of the forest carbon budget under both current and future climate conditions. We employed a state-of-the-science biogeochemical, biophysical, validated process-based model on historically managed forest stands, projecting their future as undisturbed systems, i.e., left at their natural evolution with no management interventions (i.e., forests are left to develop undisturbed). Such a model, forced by climate data from five Earth System Models under four representative climate scenarios and one baseline scenario to disentangle the effect of climate change, spanned several age classes as representative of the current European forests' context, for each stand. Our findings indicate that Net Primary Production (NPP) peaks in the young and middle-aged classes (16- to 50-year-old), aligning with longstanding ecological theories, regardless of the climate scenario. Under climate change, the beech forest exhibited an increase in NPP and maintained stability across all age classes, while resilience remained constant with rising atmospheric CO2 and temperatures. However, NPP declined under climate change scenarios for the Norway spruce and Scots pine sites. In these coniferous forests, stability and resilience were more influenced. These results underscore the necessity of accounting for age class diversity -lacking in most, if not all, the current Global Vegetation Models - for reliable and robust assessments of the impacts of climate change on future forests' stability and resilience capacity. We, therefore, advocate for customized management strategies that enhance the adaptability of forests to changing climatic conditions, taking into account the diverse responses of different species and age groups to climate.

Vegetation redistribution is predicted to intensify soil organic carbon loss under future climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau

Vegetation redistribution may bring unexpected climate-soil carbon cycling in terrestrial biomes. However, whether and how vegetation redistribution alters the soil carbon pool under climate change is still poorly understood on the Tibetan Plateau. Here, we applied the G-Range model to simulate the cover of herbs, shrubs and trees, net primary productivity (NPP) and soil organic carbon density (SOCD) at the depth of 60 cm on Tibetan Plateau for the individual years 2020 and 2060, using climate projection for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios with the RegCM4.6 model system. Vegetation redistribution was defined as the transitions in bare ground, herbs, shrubs and trees between 2020 and 2060, with approximately 57.9 % (RCP4.5) and 59 % (RCP8.5) of the area will redistribute vegetation over the whole Tibetan Plateau. The vegetation cover will increase by about 2.4 % (RCP4.5) and 1.9 % (RCP8.5), while the NPP and SOCD will decrease by about -14.3 g C m-2 yr-1 and -907 g C m-2 (RCP4.5), and -1.8 g C m-2 yr-1and -920 g C m-2 (RCP8.5). Shrubs and trees will expand in the east, and herbs will expand in the northwest part of the Plateau. These areas are projected to be hotspots with greater SOCD reduction in response to future climate change, and will include lower net plant carbon input due to the negative NPP. Our study indicates that the SOC pool will become a carbon source under increased air temperature and rainfall on the Tibetan Plateau by 2060, especially for the area with vegetation redistribution. These results revealed the potential risk of vegetation redistribution under climate change in alpine ecosystems, indicating the policymakers need to pay attention on the vegetation redistribution to mitigate the soil carbon emission and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality on the Tibetan Plateau.

Tree-ring widths of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr reveal variability of winter half-year precipitation on the north-south transition zone in central China over the past 220 years

Long-term, high-resolution regional drought records contribute to understanding the impacts of drought on environmental and social systems in central China. Here, we develop a regional tree-ring width chronology of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr from the northern slope of Funiu Mountains on the north-south transition zone in central China. Monthly correlation analyses showed that temperature and humidity in current May and June are main limiting factors on tree growth. Despite that, the highest correlation with tree growth was found to be precipitation from previous December to current June (PreDJ, 0.718, p < 0.001), which was chosen for reconstruction. The reconstructed PreDJ revealed six drought periods and five wet periods over the past 220 years, and the recent dry spell would likely to continue. Spectral analyses indicated that the reconstructed PreDJ was closely related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO, 2-7a) and 35a climatic oscillation of Bruckner, and was also affected by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Wavelet analyses showed that the quasi-cycle of 2-7a persisted over the past 220 years and strengthened after the 1980s, and the QBO signals appeared from the 1860s to 1970s and wear off thereafter, and 35a cycle only appeared during 1820-1920. Spatial analysis found that the reconstructed PreDJ had good spatial representation of precipitation in the central-eastern China. Therefore, the results of this study provide reliable information for understanding long-term drought impacts on environmental conditions and socioeconomic development in central China.

Evaluating the relative influence of climate and human activities on recent vegetation dynamics in West Bengal, India

Assessing the relative importance of climate change and human activities is important in developing sustainable management policies for regional land use. In this study, multiple remote sensing datasets, i.e. CHIRPS (Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data) precipitation, MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), Soil Moisture (SM), WorldPop, and nighttime light have been analyzed to investigate the effect that climate change (CC) and regional human activities (HA) have on vegetation dynamics in eastern India for the period 2000 to 2022. The relative influence of climate and anthropogenic factors is evaluated on the basis of non-parametric statistics i.e., Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator. Significant spatial and elevation-dependent variations in precipitation and LST are evident. Areas at higher elevations exhibit increased mean annual temperatures (0.22 °C/year, p < 0.05) and reduced winter precipitation over the last two decades, while the northern and southwest parts of West Bengal witnessed increased mean annual precipitation (17.3 mm/year, p < 0.05) and a slight cooling trend. Temperature and precipitation trends are shown to collectively impact EVI distribution. While there is a negative spatial correlation between LST and EVI, the relationship between precipitation and EVI is positive and stronger (R2 = 0.83, p < 0.05). Associated hydroclimatic parameters are potent drivers of EVI, whereby PET in the southwestern regions leads to markedly lower SM. The relative importance of CC and HA on EVI also varies spatially. Near the major conurbation of Kolkata, and confirmed by nighttime light and population density data, changes in vegetation cover are very clearly dominated by HA (87%). In contrast, CC emerges as the dominant driver of EVI (70-85%) in the higher elevation northern regions of the state but also in the southeast. Our findings inform policy regarding the future sustainability of vulnerable socio-hydroclimatic systems across the entire state.

Critical slowing down of the Amazon forest after increased drought occurrence

Dynamic ecosystems, such as the Amazon forest, are expected to show critical slowing down behavior, or slower recovery from recurrent small perturbations, as they approach an ecological threshold to a different ecosystem state. Drought occurrences are becoming more prevalent across the Amazon, with known negative effects on forest health and functioning, but their actual role in the critical slowing down patterns still remains elusive. In this study, we evaluate the effect of trends in extreme drought occurrences on temporal autocorrelation (TAC) patterns of satellite-derived indices of vegetation activity, an indicator of slowing down, between 2001 and 2019. Differentiating between extreme drought frequency, intensity, and duration, we investigate their respective effects on the slowing down response. Our results indicate that the intensity of extreme droughts is a more important driver of slowing down than their duration, although their impacts vary across the different Amazon regions. In addition, areas with more variable precipitation are already less ecologically stable and need fewer droughts to induce slowing down. We present findings indicating that most of the Amazon region does not show an increasing trend in TAC. However, the predicted increase in extreme drought intensity and frequency could potentially transition significant portions of this ecosystem into a state with altered functionality.

Enhancing ecosystem productivity and stability with increasing canopy structural complexity in global forests

Forest canopy structural complexity (CSC) plays a crucial role in shaping forest ecosystem productivity and stability, but the precise nature of their relationships remains controversial. Here, we mapped the global distribution of forest CSC and revealed the factors influencing its distribution using worldwide light detection and ranging data. We find that forest CSC predominantly demonstrates significant positive relationships with forest ecosystem productivity and stability globally, although substantial variations exist among forest ecoregions. The effects of forest CSC on productivity and stability are the balanced results of biodiversity and resource availability, providing valuable insights for comprehending forest ecosystem functions. Managed forests are found to have lower CSC but more potent enhancing effects of forest CSC on ecosystem productivity and stability than intact forests, highlighting the urgent need to integrate forest CSC into the development of forest management plans for effective climate change mitigation.

The largest European forest carbon sinks are in the Dinaric Alps old-growth forests: comparison of direct measurements and standardised approaches

BACKGROUND

Carbon (C) sink and stock are among the most important ecosystem services provided by forests in climate change mitigation policies. In this context, old-growth forests constitute an essential reference point for the development of close-to-nature silviculture, including C management techniques. Despite their small extent in Europe, temperate old-growth forests are assumed to be among the most prominent in terms of biomass and C stored. However, monitoring and reporting of C stocks is still poorly understood. To better understand the C stock amount and distribution in temperate old-growth forests, we estimated the C stock of two old-growth stands in the Dinaric Alps applying different assessment methods, including direct and indirect approaches (e.g., field measurements and allometric equations vs. IPCC standard methods). This paper presents the quantification and the distribution of C across the five main forest C pools (i.e., aboveground, belowground, deadwood, litter and soil) in the study areas and the differences between the applied methods.

RESULTS

We report a very prominent C stock in both study areas (507 Mg C ha- 1), concentrated in a few large trees (36% of C in 5% of trees). Moreover, we found significant differences in C stock estimation between direct and indirect methods. Indeed, the latter tended to underestimate or overestimate depending on the pool considered.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparison of our results with previous studies and data collected in European forests highlights the prominence of temperate forests, among which the Dinaric Alps old-growth forests are the largest. These findings provide an important benchmark for the development of future approaches to the management of the European temperate forests. However, further and deeper research on C stock and fluxes in old-growth stands is of prime importance to understand the potential and limits of the climate mitigation role of forests.

Climate-induced tree-mortality pulses are obscured by broad-scale and long-term greening

Vegetation greening has been suggested to be a dominant trend over recent decades, but severe pulses of tree mortality in forests after droughts and heatwaves have also been extensively reported. These observations raise the question of to what extent the observed severe pulses of tree mortality induced by climate could affect overall vegetation greenness across spatial grains and temporal extents. To address this issue, here we analyse three satellite-based datasets of detrended growing-season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVIGS) with spatial resolutions ranging from 30 m to 8 km for 1,303 field-documented sites experiencing severe drought- or heat-induced tree-mortality events around the globe. We find that severe tree-mortality events have distinctive but localized imprints on vegetation greenness over annual timescales, which are obscured by broad-scale and long-term greening. Specifically, although anomalies in NDVIGS (ΔNDVI) are negative during tree-mortality years, this reduction diminishes at coarser spatial resolutions (that is, 250 m and 8 km). Notably, tree-mortality-induced reductions in NDVIGS (|ΔNDVI|) at 30-m resolution are negatively related to native plant species richness and forest height, whereas topographic heterogeneity is the major factor affecting ΔNDVI differences across various spatial grain sizes. Over time periods of a decade or longer, greening consistently dominates all spatial resolutions. The findings underscore the fundamental importance of spatio-temporal scales for cohesively understanding the effects of climate change on forest productivity and tree mortality under both gradual and abrupt changes.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Economic Density and Vegetation Cover in the Yellow River Basin: Unraveling Interconnections

Vegetation, serving as the primary constituent of terrestrial ecosystems, plays a crucial role in regulating energy flow and material cycles and providing vital resources for human socio-economic activities. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal patterns of economic density and vegetation coverage in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) based on forest resource inventory and socio-economic data from 448 counties in 2008, 2013, and 2018. A three-tiered criterion layer is constructed using economic density as the core explanatory variable, encompassing social development factors, land use factors, and natural factors. A two-way fixed effects model is then utilized to analyze the impact of economic density on vegetation coverage. Results reveal that: (1) Spatially, economic density demonstrates a “low in the west and high in the east” pattern, with an overall upward trend in the YRB. Conversely, vegetation cover exhibits a “high in the west and low in the east” pattern, displaying a downward trend. (2) Over the 2008–2018 period, a significant negative correlation between economic density and vegetation cover is observed in each county of the YRB, with vegetation cover decreasing by 1.108% for every 1 unit increase in economic density. Notably, the upstream areas of the YRB experience a significant increase in vegetation coverage, while the middle and lower reaches witness a decrease. (3) Considering control variables, the proportion of the primary industry, urbanization rate, forest protection level, and cultivated land area exert a significant influence on vegetation coverage across the entire basin. Policymakers should formulate relevant policies to achieve sustainable development in the YRB, as discussed in the proposed countermeasures. This study delineates a practical pathway for high-quality economic development and high-level ecological protection in the YRB, offering a valuable reference for analogous research in other regions.

Forest management positively reshapes the phyllosphere bacterial community and improves community stability

Research has shown that forest management can improve the post-drought growth and resilience of Qinghai spruce in the eastern Qilian Mountains, located on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. However, the impact of such management on the tree-associated phyllosphere microbiome is not yet fully understood. This study provides new evidence of positive forest management effects on the phyllosphere microbiome after extreme drought, from the perspectives of community diversity, structure, network inference, keystone species, and assembly processes. In managed Qinghai spruce forest, the α-diversity of the phyllosphere bacterial communities increased, whereas the β-diversity decreased. In addition, the phyllosphere bacterial community became more stable and resistant, yet less complex, following forest management. Keystone species inferred from a bacterial network also changed under forest management. Furthermore, forest management mediated changes in community assembly processes, intensifying the influence of determinacy, while diminishing that of stochasticity. These findings support the hypothesis that management can re-assemble the phyllosphere bacterial community, enhance community stability, and ultimately improve tree growth. Overall, the study highlights the importance of forest management on the phyllosphere microbiome and furnishes new insights into forest conservation from the perspective of managing microbial processes and effects.

Contrasting patterns of water use efficiency and annual radial growth among European beech forests along the Italian peninsula

Tree mortality and forest dieback episodes are increasing due to drought and heat stress. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of mechanisms enabling trees to withstand and survive droughts remains lacking. Our study investigated basal area increment (BAI), and δ13C-derived intrinsic water-use-efficiency (iWUE), to elucidate beech resilience across four healthy stands in Italy with varying climates and soil water availability. Additionally, fist-order autocorrelation (AR1) analysis was performed to detect early warning signals for potential tree dieback risks during extreme drought events. Results reveal a negative link between BAI and vapour pressure deficit (VPD), especially in southern latitudes. After the 2003 drought, BAI decreased at the northern site, with an increase in δ13C and iWUE, indicating conservative water-use. Conversely, the southern sites showed increased BAI and iWUE, likely influenced by rising CO2 and improved water availability. In contrast, the central site sustained higher transpiration rates due to higher soil water holding capacity (SWHC). Despite varied responses, most sites exhibited reduced resilience to future extreme events, indicated by increased AR1. Temperature significantly affected beech iWUE and BAI in northern Italy, while VPD strongly influenced the southern latitudes. The observed increase in BAI and iWUE in southern regions might be attributed to an acclimation response.

The feedback of greening on local hydrothermal conditions in Northern China

Northern China has experienced a significant increase in vegetation cover over the past few decades. It lacks a comprehensive understanding of how greening impacts local hydrothermal conditions. To address this issue, in our study, the RegCM-CLM45 model was used to conduct a thorough assessment of the impacts of greening on temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), precipitation, and soil moisture. The findings revealed that the local climatic effects of greening varied across different drought gradients based on the aridity index (AI). In drier regions with AI<0.3, the increased energy induced by greening tended to dissipate as sensible heat, exacerbating both warming and drought conditions. Conversely, in wetter regions with AI>0.3, a greater proportion of energy was lost through evapotranspiration, attenuating warming. Additionally, greening enhanced precipitation and soil moisture in drier regions and moderated their decline in wetter regions. Significantly, our research emphasized the effectiveness of grassland expansion and conservation as prime strategies for ecological restoration, particularly in drylands, where they could effectively alleviate soil drought. Given the diverse responses of different land cover transformations to local hydrothermal conditions in drylands, there is an urgent need to address potential adverse effects arising from inappropriate ecological restoration strategies and to develop an optimal restoration framework for the future.

Strategies for breeding crops for future environments

The green revolution successfully increased agricultural output in the early 1960s by relying primarily on three pillars: plant breeding, irrigation, and chemical fertilization. Today, the need to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers, water scarcity, and future environmental changes, together with a growing population, requires innovative strategies to adapt to a new context and prevent food shortages. Therefore, scientists from around the world are directing their efforts to breed crops for future environments to sustainably produce more nutritious food. Herein, we propose scientific avenues to be reinforced in selecting varieties, including crop wild relatives, either for monoculture or mixed cropping systems, taking advantage of plant-microbial interactions, while considering the diversity of organisms associated with crops and unlocking combinatorial nutritional stresses.

Spatio-temporal coupling analysis and tipping points detection of China's coastal integrated land-human activity-ocean system

The coastal zone is typically highly developed and its ocean environment is vastly exposed to the onshore activities. Land-based pollution, as the "metabolite" of terrestrial human activities, significantly impacts the ocean environment. Although numerous studies have investigated these effects, few have quantified the interactions among land-human activity-ocean across both spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we have developed a land-human activity-ocean systemic framework integrating the coupling coordination degree model and tipping point to quantify the spatiotemporal dynamic interaction mechanism among the land-based pollution, human activities, and ocean environment in China from 2001 to 2020. Our findings revealed that the overall coupling coordination degree of the China's coastal zone increased by 36.9 % over last two decades. Furthermore, the effect of human activities on China's coastal environment remained within acceptable thresholds, as no universal tipping points for coastal pollution or ocean environment has been found over the 20-year period. Notably, the lag time for algal blooms, the key indicator of ocean environment health, was found to be 0-3 years in response to the land economic development and 0-4 years in response to land-based pollution. Based on the differences in spatiotemporal interactions among land-human activity-ocean system, we employed cluster analysis to categorize China's coastal provinces into four types and to develop appropriate management measures. Quantifying the interaction mechanism within the land-human activity-ocean system could aid decision-makers in creating sustainable coastal development strategies. This enables efficient use of land and ocean resources, supports coastal conservation and restoration efforts, and fosters effective management recommendations to enhance coastal sustainability and resilience.

Regulation and resilience: Panarchy analysis in forest socio-ecosystem of Northeast National Forest Region, China

This paper examines the socio-ecological resilience within China's Northeast National Forest Region (NNFR), focusing on the implications of climate change for forest management and carbon sequestration. It offers a critical assessment of the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP) and the associated logging ban policy, recognizing their pivotal contributions to forest conservation but also identifying the shortcomings of a one-size-fits-all approach. Integrating panarchy theory, the study proposes sustainable management practices that align ecological dynamics with societal needs, emphasizing nature-based solutions. The overarching aim is to bolster the long-term resilience and enhance the carbon sequestration potential of the NNFR's forests. It aims to inform global environmental strategy with lessons from the NNFR, advocating for integrated approaches that ensure both ecological sustainability and community prosperity. This approach seeks to provide a comprehensive and effective strategy for addressing environmental challenges, ensuring both ecological integrity and community well-being.

Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake

Although elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) has substantial indirect effects on vegetation carbon uptake via associated climate change, their dynamics remain unclear. Here we investigate how the impacts of eCO2-driven climate change on growing-season gross primary production have changed globally during 1982-2014, using satellite observations and Earth system models, and evaluate their evolution until the year 2100. We show that the initial positive effect of eCO2-induced climate change on vegetation carbon uptake has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century. Such emerging pattern appears prominent in high latitudes and occurs in combination with a decrease of direct CO2 physiological effect, ultimately resulting in a sharp reduction of the current growth benefits induced by climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Such weakening of the indirect CO2 effect can be partially attributed to the widespread land drying, and it is expected to be further exacerbated under global warming.