Long-term, high frequency in situ measurements of intertidal mussel bed temperatures using biomimetic sensors

Physiologically informed organismal climatologies reveal unexpected spatiotemporal trends in temperature

Body temperature is universally recognized as a dominant driver of biological performance. Although the critical distinction between the temperature of an organism and its surrounding habitat has long been recognized, it remains common practice to assume that trends in air temperature-collected via remote sensing or weather stations-are diagnostic of trends in animal temperature and thus of spatiotemporal patterns of physiological stress and mortality risk. Here, by analysing long-term trends recorded by biomimetic temperature sensors designed to emulate intertidal mussel temperature across the US Pacific Coast, we show that trends in maximal organismal temperature ('organismal climatologies') during aerial exposure can differ substantially from those exhibited by co-located environmental data products. Specifically, using linear regression to compare maximal organismal and environmental (air temperature) climatologies, we show that not only are the magnitudes of body and air temperature markedly different, as expected, but so are their temporal trends at both local and biogeographic scales, with some sites showing significant decadal-scale increases in organismal temperature despite reductions in air temperature, or vice versa. The idiosyncratic relationship between the spatiotemporal patterns of organismal and air temperatures suggests that environmental climatology cannot be statistically corrected to serve as an accurate proxy for organismal climatology. Finally, using quantile regression, we show that spatiotemporal trends vary across the distribution of organismal temperature, with extremes shifting in different directions and at different rates than average metrics. Overall, our results highlight the importance of quantifying changes in the entire distribution of temperature to better predict biological performance and dispel the notion that raw or 'corrected' environmental (and specially air temperature) climatologies can be used to predict organismal temperature trends. Hence, despite their widespread coverage and availability, the severe limitations of environmental climatologies suggest that their role in conservation and management policy should be carefully considered.

Behavioral responses of intertidal clams to compound extreme weather and climate events

Rapidly increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere not only results in global warming, but also drives increasing seawater acidification. Infaunal bivalves play critical roles in benthic-pelagic coupling, but little is known about their behavioral responses to compound climate events. Here, we tested how heatwaves and acidification affected the behavior of Manila clams (Ruditapes philippinarum). Under acidified conditions, the clams remained capable of burrowing into sediments. Yet, when heatwaves attacked, significant decreases in burrowing ability occurred. Following two consecutive events of heatwaves, the clams exhibited rapid behavioral acclimation. The present study showed that the behavior of R. philippinarum is more sensitive to heatwaves than acidification. Given that the behavior can act as an early and sensitive indicator of the fitness of intertidal bivalves, whether, and to what extent, behavioral acclimation can persist under scenarios of intensifying heatwaves in the context of ocean acidification deserve further investigations.

The impacts of thermal heterogeneity across microhabitats on post-settlement selection of intertidal mussels

Rapid genetic selection is critical for allowing natural populations to adapt to different thermal environments such as those that occur across intertidal microhabitats with high degrees of thermal heterogeneity. To address the question of how thermal regimes influence selection and adaptation in the intertidal black mussel Mytilisepta virgata, we continuously recorded environmental temperatures in both tidal pools and emergent rock microhabitats and then assessed genetic differentiation, gene expression patterns, RNA editing level, and cardiac performance. Our results showed that the subpopulations in the tidal pool and on emergent rocks had different genetic structures and exhibited different physiological and molecular responses to high-temperature stress. These results indicate that environmental heterogeneity across microhabitats is important for driving genetic differentiation and shed light on the importance of post-settlement selection for adaptively modifying the genetic composition and thermal responses of these intertidal mussels.

Roles of multi-level temperature-adaptive responses and microhabitat variation in establishing distributions of intertidal species

How intertidal species survive their harsh environment and how best to evaluate and forecast range shifts in species distribution are two important and closely related questions for intertidal ecologists and global change biologists. Adaptive variation in responses of organisms to environmental change across all levels of biological organization - from behavior to molecular systems - is of key importance in setting distribution patterns, yet studies often neglect the interactions of diverse types of biological variation (e.g. differences in thermal optima owing to genetic and acclimation-induced effects) with environmental variation, notably at the scale of microhabitats. Intertidal species have to cope with extreme and frequently changing thermal stress, and have shown high variation in thermal sensitivities and adaptive responses at different levels of biological organization. Here, I review the physiological and biochemical adaptations of intertidal species to environmental temperature on multiple spatial and temporal scales. With fine-scale datasets for the thermal limits of individuals and for environmental temperature variation at the microhabitat scale, we can map the thermal sensitivity for each individual in different microhabitats, and then scale up the thermal sensitivity analysis to the population level and, finally, to the species level by incorporating physiological traits into species distribution models. These more refined mechanistic models that include consideration of physiological variations have higher predictive power than models that neglect these variations, and they will be crucial to answering the questions posed above concerning adaptive mechanisms and the roles they play in governing distribution patterns in a rapidly changing world.

Survival and physiological energetics of highly invasive mussels exposed to heatwaves

The South American mussel, Mytella strigata, is a highly invasive fouling species of great concern along intertidal shores in East and Southeast Asia, posing serious threats to native biodiversity and ecosystems. Intertidal areas, being increasingly attacked by heatwaves over the last decade, are among the most thermally challenging habitats, yet the fate of this highly invasive mussel under scenarios of hotter heatwaves remains unknown. Here, we investigated how M. strigata responded to intensifying heatwaves frequently occurring in the South China Sea. Over 97% of individuals survived the five-day-lasting heatwaves, suggesting their high ability to cope with short-term heatwaves. Virtually unaffected clearance rate and absorption efficiency throughout the course of heatwaves indicate the maintenance of energy acquisition, and significantly decreased respiration rate implies the depression of energy metabolism, generating significant decreases in the O:N ratio when heatwaves occurred. Scope for growth of heatwaves-stressed mussels significantly decreased during initial exposure and then increased over time. These findings indicate the remarkable ability of M. strigata to cope with heatwaves recorded in its invasive habitats and call the attention for the rapid spread of this highly invasive fouling species in the context of climate change.

Transcriptome wide analyses reveal intraspecific diversity in thermal stress responses of a dominant habitat-forming species

The impact of climate change on biodiversity has stimulated the need to understand environmental stress responses, particularly for ecosystem engineers whose responses to climate affect large numbers of associated organisms. Distinct species differ substantially in their resilience to thermal stress but there are also within-species variations in thermal tolerance for which the molecular mechanisms underpinning such variation remain largely unclear. Intertidal mussels are well-known for their role as ecosystem engineers. First, we exposed two genetic lineages of the intertidal mussel Perna perna to heat stress treatments in air and water. Next, we ran a high throughput RNA sequencing experiment to identify differences in gene expression between the thermally resilient eastern lineage and the thermally sensitive western lineage. We highlight different thermal tolerances that concord with their distributional ranges. Critically, we also identified lineage-specific patterns of gene expression under heat stress and revealed intraspecific differences in the underlying transcriptional pathways in response to warmer temperatures that are potentially linked to the within-species differences in thermal tolerance. Beyond the species, we show how unravelling within-species variability in mechanistic responses to heat stress promotes a better understanding of global evolutionary trajectories of the species as a whole in response to changing climate.

Thermal stress gradient causes increasingly negative effects towards the range limit of an invasive mussel

Environmental filtering (EF), the abiotic exclusion of species, can have first order, direct effects with cascading consequences for population dynamics, especially at range edges where abiotic conditions are suboptimal. Abiotic stress gradients associated with EF may also drive indirect second order effects, including exacerbating the effects of competitors, disease, and parasites on marginal populations because of suboptimal physiological performance. We predicted a cascade of first and second order EF-associated effects on marginal populations of the invasive mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, plus a third order effect of EF of increased epibiont load due to second order shell degradation by endoliths. Mussel populations on rocky shores were surveyed across 850 km of the south-southeast coast of South Africa, from the species' warm-edge range limit to sites in the centre of their distribution, to quantify second order (endolithic shell degradation) and third order (number of barnacle epibionts) EF-associated effects as a function of along-shore distance from the range edge. Inshore temperature data were interpolated from the literature. Using in situ temperature logger data, we calculated the effective shore level for several sites by determining the duration of immersion and emersion. Summer and winter inshore water temperatures were linked to distance from the mussel's warm range edge (our proxy for an EF-associated stress gradient), suggesting that seasonality in temperature contributes to first order effects. The gradient in thermal stress clearly affected densities, but its influence on mussel size, shell degradation, and epibiosis was weaker. Relationships among mussel size, shell degradation, and epibiosis were more robust. Larger, older mussels had more degraded shells and more epibionts, with endolithic damage facilitating epibiosis. EF associated with a gradient in thermal stress directly limits the distribution, abundance, and size structure of mussel populations, with important indirect second and third order effects of parasitic disease and epibiont load, respectively.

Symbiont-induced phenotypic variation in an ecosystem engineer mediates thermal stress for the associated community

Microbial symbionts have strong potential to mediate responses to climate change. Such modulation may be particularly important in the case of hosts that modify the physical habitat structure. By transforming the habitats, ecosystem engineers alter resource availability and modulate environmental conditions which, in turn, indirectly shape the community associated with that habitat. Endolithic cyanobacteria are known to reduce the body temperatures of infested mussels and here, we assessed whether the thermal benefits of endoliths on the intertidal reef-building mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis extends to the invertebrate community utilising mussel beds as habitat. Artificial reefs of biomimetic mussels either colonised or not colonised by microbial endoliths were used to test whether infauna species (the limpet Patella vulgata, the snail Littorina littorea and mussel recruits) in a mussel bed with symbionts experience lower body temperatures than those within a bed composed of mussels without symbionts. We found that infaunal individuals benefitted from being surrounded by mussels with symbionts, an effect that may be particularly critical during intense heat stress. Indirect effects of biotic interactions, complicate our understanding of community and ecosystem responses to climate change, especially in cases involving ecosystem engineers, and accounting for them will improve our predictions.

Coastal upwelling generates cryptic temperature refugia

Understanding the effects of climate-mediated environmental variation on the distribution of organisms is critically important in an era of global change. We used wavelet analysis to quantify the spatiotemporal (co)variation in daily water temperature for predicting the distribution of cryptic refugia across 16 intertidal sites that were characterized as 'no', 'weak' or 'strong' upwelling and spanned 2000 km of the European Atlantic Coast. Sites experiencing weak upwelling exhibited high synchrony in temperature but low levels of co-variability at monthly to weekly timescales, whereas the opposite was true for sites experiencing strong upwelling. This suggests upwelling generates temporal thermal refugia that can promote organismal performance by both supplying colder water that mitigates thermal stress during hot Summer months and ensuring high levels of fine-scale variation in temperature that reduce the duration of thermal extremes. Additionally, pairwise correlograms based on the Pearson-product moment correlation coefficient and wavelet coherence revealed scale dependent trends in temperature fluctuations across space, with a rapid decay in strong upwelling sites at monthly and weekly timescales. This suggests upwelling also generates spatial thermal refugia that can 'rescue' populations from unfavorable conditions at local and regional scales. Overall, this study highlights the importance of identifying cryptic spatiotemporal refugia that emerge from fine-scale environmental variation to map potential patterns of organismal performance in a rapidly changing world.

Assessing the impact of atmospheric heatwaves on intertidal clams

Heatwaves have become more frequent and intense in the last two decades, resulting in detrimental effects on marine bivalves and ecosystems they sustain. Intertidal clams inhabit the most physiologically challenging habitats in coastal areas and live already near their thermal tolerance limits. However, whether and to what extent atmospheric heatwaves affect intertidal bivalves remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated physiological responses of the Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum, to heatwaves at air temperature regimes of 40 °C and 50 °C occurring frequently and occasionally at the present day in the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea. With the increasing intensity of heatwaves and following only two days of aerial exposure, Manila clams suffered 100 % mortality at 50 °C, indicating that they succumb to near future heatwaves, although they survived under various scenarios of moderate heatwaves. The latter is couched in energetic terms across levels of biological organization. Specifically, Manila clams acutely exposed to heatwaves enhanced their standard metabolic rate to fuel essential physiological maintenance, such as increasing activities of SOD, CAT, MDA, and AKP, and expression of HSP70. These strategies occur likely at the expense of fitness-related functions, as best exemplified by significant depressions in activities of enzymes (NKA, CMA, and T-ATP) and expression levels of genes (PT, KHK, CA, CAS, TYR, TNF-BP, and OSER). When heatwaves occurred again, Manila clams can respond and acclimate to thermal stress by implementing a suite of more ATP-efficient and less energy-costly compensatory mechanisms at various levels of biological organization. It is consequently becoming imperative to uncover underlying mechanisms responsible for such positive response and rapid acclimation to recurrent heatwaves.

The influence of stochastic temperature fluctuations in shaping the physiological performance of the California mussel, Mytilus californianus

Climate change is forecasted to increase temperature variability and stochasticity. Most of our understanding of thermal physiology of intertidal organisms has come from laboratory experiments that acclimate organisms to submerged conditions and steady-state increases in temperatures. For organisms experiencing the ebb and flow of tides with unpredictable low tide aerial temperatures, the reliability of reported tolerances and thus predicted responses to climate change requires incorporation of environmental complexity into empirical studies. Using the mussel Mytilus californianus, our study examined how stochasticity of the thermal regime influences physiological performance. Mussels were acclimated to either submerged conditions or a tidal cycle that included either predictable, unpredictable or no thermal stress during daytime low tide. Physiological performance was measured through anaerobic metabolism, energy stores and cellular stress mechanisms just before low tide, and cardiac responses during a thermal ramp. Both air exposure and stochasticity of temperature change were important in determining thermal performance. Glycogen content was highest in the mussels from the unpredictable treatment, but there was no difference in the expression of heat shock proteins between thermal treatments, suggesting that mussels prioritise energy reserves to deal with unpredictable low tide conditions. Mussels exposed to fluctuating thermal regimes had lower gill anaerobic metabolism, which could reflect increased metabolic capacity. Our results suggest that while thermal magnitude plays an important role in shaping physiological performance, other key elements of the intertidal environment complexity such as stochasticity, thermal variability, and thermal history are also important considerations for determining how species will respond to climate warming.

Prognostic value of fibrinogen to albumin ratios among critically ill patients with acute kidney injury

Fibrinogen to albumin ratios (FAR) have shown to be a promising prognostic factor for improving the predictive accuracy in various diseases. This study explores FAR's prognostic significance in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). All clinical data were extracted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care Database III version 1.4. All patients were divided into four groups based on FAR quartiles. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. A generalized additive model was applied to explore a nonlinear association between FAR and in-hospital mortality. The Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the association between FAR and in-hospital mortality. A total of 5001 eligible subjects were enrolled. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that higher FAR was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality after adjusting for potential confounders (HR, 95% CI 1.23, 1.03-1.48, P = 0.025). A nonlinear relationship between FAR and in-hospital mortality was observed. FAR may serve as a potential prognostic biomarker in critically patients with AKI and higher FAR was associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality among these patients.

Effects of heat acclimation on cardiac function in the intertidal mussel Mytilus californianus: can laboratory-based indices predict survival in the field?

Thermal performance curves are commonly used to investigate the effects of heat acclimation on thermal tolerance and physiological performance. However, recent work indicates that the metrics of these curves heavily depend on experimental design and may be poor predictors of animal survival during heat events in the field. In intertidal mussels, cardiac thermal performance (CTP) tests have been widely used as indicators of animals' acclimation or acclimatization state, providing two indices of thermal responses: critical temperature (Tcrit; the temperature above which heart rate abruptly declines) and flatline temperature (Tflat; the temperature where heart rate ceases). Despite the wide use of CTP tests, it remains largely unknown how Tcrit and Tflat change within a single individual after heat acclimation, and whether changes in these indices can predict altered survival in the field. Here, we addressed these issues by evaluating changes in CTP indices in the same individuals before and after heat acclimation. For control mussels, merely reaching Tcrit was not lethal, whereas remaining at Tcrit for ≥10 min was lethal. Heat acclimation significantly increased Tcrit only in mussels with an initially low Tcrit (<35°C), but improved their survival time above Tcrit by 20 min on average. Tflat increased by ∼1.6°C with heat acclimation, but it is unlikely that increased Tflat improves survival in the field. In summary, Tcrit and Tflat per se may fall short of providing quantitative indices of thermal tolerance in mussels; instead, a combination of Tcrit and tolerance time at temperatures ≥Tcrit better defines changes in thermal tolerance with heat acclimation.

A machine learning-based risk stratification tool for in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit patients with heart failure

BACKGROUND

Predicting hospital mortality risk is essential for the care of heart failure patients, especially for those in intensive care units.

METHODS

Using a novel machine learning algorithm, we constructed a risk stratification tool that correlated patients' clinical features and in-hospital mortality. We used the extreme gradient boosting algorithm to generate a model predicting the mortality risk of heart failure patients in the intensive care unit in the derivation dataset of 5676 patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database. The logistic regression model and a common risk score for mortality were used for comparison. The eICU Collaborative Research Database dataset was used for external validation.

RESULTS

The performance of the machine learning model was superior to that of conventional risk predictive methods, with the area under curve 0.831 (95% CI 0.820-0.843) and acceptable calibration. In external validation, the model had an area under the curve of 0.809 (95% CI 0.805-0.814). Risk stratification through the model was specific when the hospital mortality was very low, low, moderate, high, and very high (2.0%, 10.2%, 11.5%, 21.2% and 56.2%, respectively). The decision curve analysis verified that the machine learning model is the best clinically valuable in predicting mortality risk.

CONCLUSION

Using readily available clinical data in the intensive care unit, we built a machine learning-based mortality risk tool with prediction accuracy superior to that of linear regression model and common risk scores. The risk tool may support clinicians in assessing individual patients and making individualized treatment.

Loss of transcriptional plasticity but sustained adaptive capacity after adaptation to global change conditions in a marine copepod

Adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity will fuel resilience in the geologically unprecedented warming and acidification of the earth’s oceans, however, we have much to learn about the interactions and costs of these mechanisms of resilience. Here, using 20 generations of experimental evolution followed by three generations of reciprocal transplants, we investigated the relationship between adaptation and plasticity in the marine copepod, Acartia tonsa, in future global change conditions (high temperature and high CO₂). We found parallel adaptation to global change conditions in genes related to stress response, gene expression regulation, actin regulation, developmental processes, and energy production. However, reciprocal transplantation showed that adaptation resulted in a loss of transcriptional plasticity, reduced fecundity, and reduced population growth when global change-adapted animals were returned to ambient conditions or reared in low food conditions. However, after three successive transplant generations, global change-adapted animals were able to match the ambient-adaptive transcriptional profile. Concurrent changes in allele frequencies and erosion of nucleotide diversity suggest that this recovery occurred via adaptation back to ancestral conditions. These results demonstrate that while plasticity facilitated initial survival in global change conditions, it eroded after 20 generations as populations adapted, limiting resilience to new stressors and previously benign environments.

Rapid adaptation will facilitate species resilience under global climate change, but its effects on plasticity are less commonly investigated. This study shows that 20 generations of experimental adaptation in a marine copepod drives a rapid loss of plasticity that carries costs and might have impacts on future resilience to environmental change.

Evolutionary constraints on physiology confound range shift predictions of two nacellid limpets

Physiological comparisons are fundamental to quantitative assessments of the capacity of species to persist within their current distribution and to predict their rates of redistribution in response to climate change. Yet, the degree to which physiological traits are conserved through evolutionary history may fundamentally constrain the capacity for species to adapt and shift their geographic range. Taxa that straddle major climate transitions provide the opportunity to test the mechanisms underlying evolutionary constraints and how such constraints may influence range shift predictions. Here we focus on two abundant and shallow water nacellid limpets which have representative species on either side of the Polar front. We test the thermal thresholds of the Southern Patagonian limpet, Nacella deaurata and show that its optimal temperatures for growth (4 °C), activity (-1.2 to -0.2 °C) and survival (1 to 8 °C) are mismatched to its currently experienced annual sea surface temperature range (5.9 to 10 °C). Comparisons with the congeneric Antarctic limpet, N. concinna, reveal an evolutionary constraint on N. deaurata physiology, with overlapping thermal capacities, suggesting that a cold climate legacy has been maintained through the evolution of these species. These physiological assessments predict that the South American range of N. deaurata will likely decline with continued warming. It is, however, one of the first species with demonstrated physiological capacity to successfully colonize the cold Southern Ocean. With the expected increase in opportunities for transport within high southern latitudes, N. deaurata has the potential to establish and drive ecological change within the shallow Southern Ocean.

Evolution of Thermal Sensitivity in Changing and Variable Climates

Evolutionary adaptation to temperature and climate depends on both the extent to which organisms experience spatial and temporal environmental variation (exposure) and how responsive they are to the environmental variation (sensitivity). Theoretical models and experiments suggesting substantial potential for thermal adaptation have largely omitted realistic environmental variation. Environmental variation can drive fluctuations in selection that slow adaptive evolution. We review how carefully filtering environmental conditions based on how organisms experience their environment and further considering organismal sensitivity can improve predictions of thermal adaptation. We contrast taxa differing in exposure and sensitivity. Plasticity can increase the rate of evolutionary adaptation in taxa exposed to pronounced environmental variation. However, forms of plasticity that severely limit exposure, such as behavioral thermoregulation and phenological shifts, can hinder thermal adaptation. Despite examples of rapid thermal adaptation, experimental studies often reveal evolutionary constraints. Further investigating these constraints and issues of timescale and thermal history are needed to predict evolutionary adaptation and, consequently, population persistence in changing and variable environments.

Foul-weather friends: Modelling thermal stress mitigation by symbiotic endolithic microbes in a changing environment

Temperature extremes are predicted to intensify with climate change. These extremes are rapidly emerging as a powerful driver of species distributional changes with the capacity to disrupt the functioning and provision of services of entire ecosystems, particularly when they challenge ecosystem engineers. The subsequent search for a robust framework to forecast the consequences of these changes mostly ignores within-species variation in thermal sensitivity. Such variation can be intrinsic, but can also reflect species interactions. Intertidal mussels are important ecosystem engineers that host symbiotic endoliths in their shells. These endoliths unexpectedly act as conditionally beneficial parasites that enhance the host's resistance to intense heat stress. To understand how this relationship may be altered under environmental change, we examined the conditions under which it becomes advantageous by reducing body temperature. We deployed biomimetic sensors (robomussels), built using shells of mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) that were or were not infested by endoliths, at nine European locations spanning a temperature gradient across 22°of latitude (Orkney, Scotland to the Algarve, Portugal). Daily wind speed and solar radiation explained the maximum variation in the difference in temperature between infested and non-infested robomussels; the largest difference occurred under low wind speed and high solar radiation. From the robomussel data, we inferred body temperature differences between infested and non-infested mussels during known heatwaves that induced mass mortality of the mussel Mytilus edulis along the coast of the English Channel in summer 2018 to quantify the thermal advantage of endolith infestation during temperature extremes. Under these conditions, endoliths provided thermal buffering of between 1.7°C and 4.8°C. Our results strongly suggest that sustainability of intertidal mussel beds will increasingly depend on the thermal buffering provided by endoliths. More generally, this work shows that biomimetic models indicate that within-species thermal sensitivity to global warming can be modulated by species interactions, using an intertidal host-symbiont relationship as an example.

Machine learning applied to a Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit and to a Coronary Care Unit for mortality prediction

Most established severity-of-illness systems used for prediction of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality were developed targeted at the general ICU population, based on logistic regression (LR). To date, no dynamic predictive tool for ICU mortality has been developed targeted at the Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU) and Coronary Care Unit (CCU) using machine learning (ML). CSRU and CCU adult patients from the MIMIC-III critical care database were studied. The ML methods developed extract ICU data during a 5-h window and demographic features to produce mortality predictions and were compared to six established severity-of-illness systems and LR. In a secondary experiment, additional procedure/surgery and ICU features were added to the models. The ML models developed were the Tree Ensemble (TE), Random Forest, XGBoost Tree Ensemble (XGB), Naive Bayes (NB), and Bayesian network. The discrimination, calibration and accuracy statistics were assessed. The AUROC values were superior for the ML models reaching 0.926 and 0.924 for the XGB, and 0.904 and 0.908 for the TE for ICU mortality prediction in the primary and secondary experiments respectively. Among the conventional systems, the serial SOFA obtained the highest AUROC (0.8405). The Brier score was better for the ML models except the NB over the conventional systems. The accuracy statistics less sensitive to unbalanced cohorts were higher for all the ML models. In conclusion, the predictive power of XGB was excellent, substantially outperforming the conventional systems and LR. The ML models developed in this work offer promising results that could benefit CSRU and CCU.

Freshening increases the susceptibility to heat stress in intertidal mussels (Mytilus edulis) from the Arctic

Temperatures in the Arctic are increasing at a faster pace than at lower latitudes resulting in range expansion of boreal species. In Greenland, the warming also drives accelerating melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet resulting in more meltwater entering Greenland fjords in summer. Our aim was to determine if increasing summer temperatures combined with lower salinity can induce the expression of stress-related proteins, for example, heat shock protein, in boreal intertidal mussels in Greenland, and whether low salinity reduces the upper thermal limit at which mortality occurs. We conducted a mortality experiment, using 12 different combinations of salinity and air temperature treatments during a simulated tidal regime, and quantified the change in mRNA levels of five stress-related genes (hsp24, hsp70, hsp90, sod and p38) in surviving mussels to discern the level of sublethal stress. Heat-induced mortality occurred in mussels exposed to an air temperature of 30°C and mortality was higher in treatments with lowered salinity (5 and 15‰), which confirms that low habitat salinity decreases the upper thermal limit of Mytilus edulis. The gene expression analysis supported the mortality results, with the highest gene expression found at combinations of high temperature and low salinity. Combined with seasonal measurements of intertidal temperatures in Greenland, we suggest heat stress occurs in low salinity intertidal area, and that further lowered salinity in coastal water due to increased run-off can make intertidal bivalves more susceptible to summer heat stress. This study thus provides an example of how different impacts of climate warming can work synergistically to stress marine organisms.

A single heat-stress bout induces rapid and prolonged heat acclimation in the California mussel, Mytilus californianus

Climate change is not only causing steady increases in average global temperatures but also increasing the frequency with which extreme heating events occur. These extreme events may be pivotal in determining the ability of organisms to persist in their current habitats. Thus, it is important to understand how quickly an organism's heat tolerance can be gained and lost relative to the frequency with which extreme heating events occur in the field. We show that the California mussel, Mytilus californianus-a sessile intertidal species that experiences extreme temperature fluctuations and cannot behaviourally thermoregulate-can quickly (in 24-48 h) acquire improved heat tolerance after exposure to a single sublethal heat-stress bout (2 h at 30 or 35°C) and then maintain this improved tolerance for up to three weeks without further exposure to elevated temperatures. This adaptive response improved survival rates by approximately 75% under extreme heat-stress bouts (2 h at 40°C). To interpret these laboratory findings in an ecological context, we evaluated 4 years of mussel body temperatures recorded in the field. The majority (approx. 64%) of consecutive heat-stress bouts were separated by 24-48 h, but several consecutive heat bouts were separated by as much as 22 days. Thus, the ability of M. californianus to maintain improved heat tolerance for up to three weeks after a single sublethal heat-stress bout significantly improves their probability of survival, as approximately 33% of consecutive heat events are separated by 3-22 days. As a sessile animal, mussels likely evolved the capability to rapidly gain and slowly lose heat tolerance to survive the intermittent, and often unpredictable, heat events in the intertidal zone. This adaptive strategy will likely prove beneficial under the extreme heat events predicted with climate change.

High resolution spatiotemporal patterns of seawater temperatures across the Belize Mesoamerican Barrier Reef

Coral reefs are under increasingly severe threat from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors. Anomalously high seawater temperatures in particular are known to cause coral bleaching (loss of algal symbionts in the family Symbiodiniaceae), which frequently leads to coral mortality. Remote sensing of sea surface temperature (SST) has served as an invaluable tool for monitoring physical conditions that can lead to bleaching events over relatively large scales (e.g. few kms to 100 s of kms). But, it is also well known that seawater temperatures within a site can vary significantly across depths due to the combined influence of solar heating of surface waters, water column thermal stratification, and cooling from internal waves and upwelling. We deployed small autonomous benthic temperature sensors at depths ranging from 0-40 m in fore reef, back reef, and lagoonal reef habitats on the Belize Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System from 2000-2019. These data can be used to calculate depth-specific climatologies across reef depths and sites, and emphasize the dynamic and spatially-variable nature of coral reef physical environments.

Thermal exposure risks to mobile tropical marine snails: Are eco-engineered rock pools on seawalls scale-specific enough for comprehensive biodiversity outcomes?

To test the model that eco-engineering plant boxes on seawalls sustain water temperatures within thermal tolerance to maximize tropical marine biodiversity, we conducted acute thermal effects (AET) experiments using intertidal gastropods (Nerita albicilla and Littoraria articulata). The AET₅₀ (50th percentile) for N. albicilla (39.6 °C) was higher than L. articulata (32.8 °C). Loggers (Hobo) in boxes on a seawall positioned for full exposure to air temperature at mean sea level (<1.1 m) recorded temperature every 20 min during summer months. Temperature frequency distribution plots were generated for day and night, above and below 1.1 m (which is proximal to mean tide level for the region). Using the AET₅₀, N. albicilla would need to thermoregulate for a lower percentage of time compared to L. articulata regardless of day and night. It is likely that designing eco-engineering improvements to include microclimate refugia are particularly relevant in tropical areas, where extreme environmental conditions mean that scale-specific actions are important components for climate adaptation.

Climate shapes population variation in dogwhelk predation on foundational mussels

Trait variation among populations is important for shaping ecological dynamics. In marine intertidal systems, seawater temperature, low tide emersion temperature, and pH can drive variation in traits and affect species interactions. In western North America, Nucella dogwhelks are intertidal drilling predators of the habitat-forming mussel Mytilus californianus. Nucella exhibit local adaptation, but it is not known to what extent environmental factors and genetic structure contribute to variation in prey selectivity among populations. We surveyed drilled mussels at sites across Oregon and California, USA, and used multiple regression and Mantel tests to test the effects of abiotic factors and Nucella neutral genetic relatedness on the size of mussels drilled across sites. Our results show that Nucella at sites characterized by higher and less variable temperature and pH drilled larger mussels. Warmer temperatures appear to induce faster handling time, and more stable pH conditions may prolong opportunities for active foraging by reducing exposure to repeated stressful conditions. In contrast, there was no significant effect of genetic relatedness on prey size selectivity. Our results emphasize the role of climate in shaping marine predator selectivity on a foundation species. As coastal climates change, predator traits will respond to localized environmental conditions, changing ecological interactions.

Temporal variability modulates pH impact on larval sea urchin development: Themed Issue Article: Biomechanics and Climate Change

Coastal organisms reside in highly dynamic habitats. Global climate change is expected to alter not only the mean of the physical conditions experienced but also the frequencies and/or the magnitude of fluctuations of environmental factors. Understanding responses in an ecologically relevant context is essential for formulating management strategies. In particular, there are increasing suggestions that exposure to fluctuations could alleviate the impact of climate change-related stressors by selecting for plasticity that may help acclimatization to future conditions. However, it remains unclear whether the presence of fluctuations alone is sufficient to confer such effects or whether the pattern of the fluctuations matters. Therefore, we investigated the role of frequency and initial conditions of the fluctuations on performance by exposing larval sea urchin Heliocidaris crassispina to either constant or fluctuating pH. Reduced pH alone (pH 7.3 vs 8.0) did not affect larval mortality but reduced the growth of larval arms in the static pH treatments. Changes in morphology could affect the swimming mechanics for these small organisms, and geometric morphometric analysis further suggested an overall shape change such that acidified larvae had more U-shaped bodies and shorter arms, which would help maintain stability in moving water. The relative negative impact of lower pH, computed as log response ratio, on larval arm development was smaller when larvae were exposed to pH fluctuations, especially when the change was less frequent (48- vs 24-h cycle). Furthermore, larvae experiencing an initial pH drop, i.e. those where the cycle started at pH 8.0, were more negatively impacted compared with those kept at an initial pH of 7.3 before the cycling started. Our observations suggest that larval responses to climate change stress could not be easily predicted from mean conditions. Instead, to better predict organismal performance in the future ocean, monitoring and investigation of the role of real-time environmental fluctuations along the dispersive pathway is key.

Fluctuating thermal environments of shallow-water rocky reefs in the Gulf of California, Mexico

As part of a broad-scale study of the biogeography of rocky reefs in the Gulf of California, Mexico (GOC), we collected a continuous 1-yr temperature time series at ~5 m water depth at 16 sites spanning 5° of latitude and ~700 km along the western boundary of the basin. Throughout the region, thermal conditions were most variable in summer with fluctuations concentrated at diurnal and semi-diurnal frequencies, likely associated with solar and wind forcing and vertical water column oscillations forced by internal waves. Temperatures in winter were less variable than in summer, and minimum temperatures also differed among sites. Thermal variability integrated across the diurnal and semi-diurnal frequency bands was greatest near the Midriff Islands in the northern GOC and decreased toward the southern sites. Diurnal variability was greater than semi-diurnal variability at 13 of the 16 sites. A statistic-of-extremes analysis indicated shortest return times for cooling events in summer, and reef organisms at many of the sites may experience anomalous 2 to 5 °C cooling events multiple times per month. The significant extent of local temperature variability may play important roles in limiting species occurrences among sites across this biogeographic region.

Do differences in developmental mode shape the potential for local adaptation?

Future climate change is leading to the redistribution of life on Earth as species struggle to cope with rising temperatures. Local adaptation allows species to become locally optimized and persist despite environmental selection, but the extent to which this occurs in nature may be limited by dispersal and gene flow. Congeneric marine gastropod species (Littorina littorea and L. saxatilis) with markedly different developmental modes were collected from across a latitudinal thermal gradient to explore the prevalence of local adaptation to temperature. The acute response of metabolic rate (using oxygen consumption as a proxy) to up-ramping and down-ramping temperature regimes between 6°C and 36°C was quantified for five populations of each species. The highly dispersive L. littorea exhibited minimal evidence of local adaptation to the thermal gradient, with no change in thermal optimum (T_opt ) or thermal breadth (T_br ) and a decline in maximal performance (_max ) with increasing latitude. In contrast, the direct developing L. saxatilis displayed evidence of local optimization, although these varied idiosyncratically with latitude, suggesting a suite of selective pressures may be involved in shaping thermal physiology in this relatively sedentary species. Our results show that the biogeography of thermal traits can differ significantly between related species, and show that interpopulation differences in thermal performance do not necessarily follow simple patterns that may be predicted based on latitudinal changes in environmental temperatures. Further research is clearly required to understand the mechanisms that can lead to the emergence of local adaptation in marine systems better and allow improved predictions of species redistribution in response to climate change.

Decreased thermal tolerance under recurrent heat stress conditions explains summer mass mortality of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis

Extreme events such as heat waves have increased in frequency and duration over the last decades. Under future climate scenarios, these discrete climatic events are expected to become even more recurrent and severe. Heat waves are particularly important on rocky intertidal shores, one of the most thermally variable and stressful habitats on the planet. Intertidal mussels, such as the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, are ecosystem engineers of global ecological and economic importance, that occasionally suffer mass mortalities. This study investigates the potential causes and consequences of a mass mortality event of M. edulis that occurred along the French coast of the eastern English Channel in summer 2018. We used an integrative, climatological and ecophysiological methodology based on three complementary approaches. We first showed that the observed mass mortality (representing 49 to 59% of the annual commercial value of local recreational and professional fisheries combined) occurred under relatively moderate heat wave conditions. This result indicates that M. edulis body temperature is controlled by non-climatic heat sources instead of climatic heat sources, as previously reported for intertidal gastropods. Using biomimetic loggers (i.e. ‘robomussels’), we identified four periods of 5 to 6 consecutive days when M. edulis body temperatures consistently reached more than 30 °C, and occasionally more than 35 °C and even more than 40 °C. We subsequently reproduced these body temperature patterns in the laboratory to infer M. edulis thermal tolerance under conditions of repeated heat stress. We found that thermal tolerance consistently decreased with the number of successive daily exposures. These results are discussed in the context of an era of global change where heat events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency, especially in the eastern English Channel where the low frequency of commercially exploitable mussels already questions both their ecological and commercial sustainability.

High Heat Tolerance Is Negatively Correlated with Heat Tolerance Plasticity in Nudibranch Mollusks

Rapid ocean warming may alter habitat suitability and population fitness for marine ectotherms. Susceptibility to thermal perturbations will depend in part on plasticity of a species' upper thermal limits of performance (CT_max). However, we currently lack data regarding CT_max plasticity for several major marine taxa, including nudibranch mollusks, thus limiting predictive responses to habitat warming for these species. In order to determine relative sensitivity to future warming, we investigated heat tolerance limits (CT_max), heat tolerance plasticity (acclimation response ratio), thermal safety margins, temperature sensitivity of metabolism, and metabolic cost of heat shock in nine species of nudibranchs collected across a thermal gradient along the northeastern Pacific coast of California and held at ambient and elevated temperature for thermal acclimation. Heat tolerance differed significantly among species, ranging from 25.4 ° ± 0.5 ° C to 32.2 ° ± 1.8 ° C ( x ¯ ± SD ), but did not vary with collection site within species. Thermal plasticity was generally high ( 0.52 ± 0.06 , x ¯ ± SE ) and was strongly negatively correlated with CT_max in accordance with the trade-off hypothesis of thermal adaptation. Metabolic costs of thermal challenge were low, with no significant alteration in respiration rate of any species 1 h after exposure to acute heat shock. Thermal safety margins, calculated against maximum habitat temperatures, were negative for nearly all species examined ( -8.5 ° ± 5.3 ° C , x ¯ ± CI [confidence interval]). From these data, we conclude that warm adaptation in intertidal nudibranchs constrains plastic responses to acute thermal challenge and that southern warm-adapted species are likely most vulnerable to future warming.

Hot Rocks and Not-So-Hot Rocks on the Seashore: Patterns and Body-Size Dependent Consequences of Microclimatic Variation in Intertidal Zone Boulder Habitat

Microclimatic variation has emerged as an important driver of many ecological and evolutionary processes. Nonetheless, fine-scale temperature data are still rare in most habitats, limiting our ability to understand the consequences of microclimatic variation under current and future conditions. We measured fine-scale thermal variation in a common, species-rich, but rarely studied habitat with respect to temperature: the airspaces under rocks on intertidal zone boulder shores. The effects of thermal variation were investigated using physiological, behavioral, and demographic responses of the porcelain crab Petrolisthes cinctipes. Habitat temperatures were measured at fine spatial and temporal resolution over 18 months, producing 424,426 temperature records. Microclimatic variation increased with increasing intertidal elevation, particularly with respect to heat extremes. However, mean temperatures were similar across the entire intertidal zone. Overheating risk for P. cinctipes increases with intertidal elevation but is size dependent, as large animals are more heat sensitive than small animals. Still, microclimatic variation high in the intertidal zone provided thermal refugia even under the warmest conditions. Size-dependent thermal responses predicted that large crabs should be rare high in the intertidal zone, which was supported by demographic data. Furthermore, simulations parameterized by our microclimate and organismal data recapitulated demographic patterns. Therefore, interactions between microclimatic variation and size-dependent thermal responses may have significant ecological repercussions that warrant greater attention.

Mapping physiology: biophysical mechanisms define scales of climate change impacts

The rocky intertidal zone is a highly dynamic and thermally variable ecosystem, where the combined influences of solar radiation, air temperature and topography can lead to differences greater than 15°C over the scale of centimetres during aerial exposure at low tide. For most intertidal organisms this small-scale heterogeneity in microclimates can have enormous influences on survival and physiological performance. However, the potential ecological importance of environmental heterogeneity in determining ecological responses to climate change remains poorly understood. We present a novel framework for generating spatially explicit models of microclimate heterogeneity and patterns of thermal physiology among interacting organisms. We used drone photogrammetry to create a topographic map (digital elevation model) at a resolution of 2 × 2 cm from an intertidal site in Massachusetts, which was then fed into to a model of incident solar radiation based on sky view factor and solar position. These data were in turn used to drive a heat budget model that estimated hourly surface temperatures over the course of a year (2017). Body temperature layers were then converted to thermal performance layers for organisms, using thermal performance curves, creating 'physiological landscapes' that display spatially and temporally explicit patterns of 'microrefugia'. Our framework shows how non-linear interactions between these layers lead to predictions about organismal performance and survivorship that are distinct from those made using any individual layer (e.g. topography, temperature) alone. We propose a new metric for quantifying the 'thermal roughness' of a site (RqT, the root mean square of spatial deviations in temperature), which can be used to quantify spatial and temporal variability in temperature and performance at the site level. These methods facilitate an exploration of the role of micro-topographic variability in driving organismal vulnerability to environmental change using both spatially explicit and frequency-based approaches.

Environmental heterogeneity mediates scale-dependent declines in kelp diversity on intertidal rocky shores

Biodiversity loss is driven by interacting factors operating at different spatial scales. Yet, there remains uncertainty as to how fine-scale environmental conditions mediate biological responses to broad-scale stressors. We surveyed intertidal rocky shore kelp beds situated across a local gradient of wave action and evaluated changes in kelp diversity and abundance after more than two decades of broad scale stressors, most notably the 2013-2016 heat wave. Across all sites, species were less abundant on average in 2017 and 2018 than during 1993-1995 but changes in kelp diversity were dependent on wave exposure, with wave exposed habitats remaining stable and wave sheltered habitats experiencing near complete losses of kelp diversity. In this way, wave exposed sites have acted as refugia, maintaining regional kelp diversity despite widespread local declines. Fucoids, seagrasses and two stress-tolerant kelp species (Saccharina sessilis, Egregia menziesii) did not decline as observed in other kelps, and the invasive species Sargassum muticum increased significantly at wave sheltered sites. Long-term monitoring data from a centrally-located moderate site suggest that kelp communities were negatively impacted by the recent heatwave which may have driven observed losses throughout the region. Wave-sheltered shores, which saw the largest declines, are a very common habitat type in the Northeast Pacific and may be especially sensitive to losses in kelp diversity and abundance, with potential consequences for coastal productivity. Our findings highlight the importance of fine-scale environmental heterogeneity in mediating biological responses and demonstrate how incorporating differences between habitat patches can be essential to capturing scale-dependent biodiversity loss across the landscape.

Mitochondrial Adaptations to Variable Environments and Their Role in Animals' Stress Tolerance

Mitochondria are the key organelles involved in energy and redox homeostasis, cellular signaling, and survival. Animal mitochondria are exquisitely sensitive to environmental stress, and stress-induced changes in the mitochondrial integrity and function have major consequences for the organismal performance and fitness. Studies in the model organisms such as terrestrial mammals and insects showed that mitochondrial dysfunction is a major cause of injury during pathological conditions and environmental insults such as hypoxia, ischemia-reperfusion, and exposure to toxins. However, animals from highly stressful environments (such as the intertidal zone of the ocean) can maintain mitochondrial integrity and function despite intense and rapid fluctuations in abiotic conditions and associated changes in the intracellular milieu. Recent studies demonstrate that mitochondria of intertidal organisms (including mollusks, crustaceans, and fish) are capable of maintaining activity of mitochondrial electron transport system (ETS), ATP synthesis, and mitochondrial coupling in a broad range of temperature, osmolarity, and ion content. Mitochondria of intertidal organisms such as mollusks are also resistant to hypoxia-reoxygenation injury and show stability or even upregulation of the mitochondrial ETS activity and ATP synthesis capacity during intermittent hypoxia. In contrast, pH optima for mitochondrial ATP synthesis and respiration are relatively narrow in intertidal mollusks and may reflect adaptation to suppress metabolic rate during pH shifts caused by extreme stress. Sensitivity to anthropogenic pollutants (such as trace metals) in intertidal mollusks appears similar to that of other organisms (including mammals) and may reflect the lack of adaptation to these evolutionarily novel stressors. The mechanisms of the exceptional mitochondrial resilience to temperature, salinity, and hypoxic stress are not yet fully understood in intertidal organisms, yet recent studies demonstrate that they may involve rapid modulation of the ETS capacity (possibly due to post-translation modification of mitochondrial proteins), upregulation of antioxidant defenses in anticipation of oxidative stress, and high activity of mitochondrial proteases involved in degradation of damaged mitochondrial proteins. With rapidly developing molecular tools for non-model organisms, future studies of mitochondrial adaptations should pinpoint the molecular sites associated with the passive tolerance and/or active regulation of mitochondrial activity during stress exposures in intertidal organisms, investigate the roles of mitochondria in transduction of stress signals, and explore the interplay between bioenergetics and mitochondrial signaling in facilitating survival in these highly stressful environments.

Discovering divergence in the thermal physiology of intertidal crabs along latitudinal gradients using an integrated approach with machine learning

In intertidal marine crustaceans, phenotypic variation in physiological and life-history traits is pervasive along latitudinal clines. However, organisms have complex phenotypes, and their traits do not vary independently but rather interact differentially between them, effect that is caused by genetic and/or environmental forces. We evaluated the geographic variation in phenotypic integration of three marine crab species that inhabit different vertical thermal microhabitats of the intertidal zone. We studied seven populations of each species along a latitudinal gradient that spans more than 3000 km of the Chilean coast. Specifically we measured nine physiological traits that are highly related to thermal physiology. Of the nine traits, we selected four that contributed significantly to the observed geographical variation among populations; this variation was then evaluated using mixed linear models and an integrative approach employing machine learning. The results indicate that patterns of physiological variation depend on species vertical microhabitat, which may be subject to chronic or acute environmental variation. The species that inhabit the high- intertidal sites (i.e., exposed to chronic variation) better tolerated thermal stress compared with populations that inhabit the lower intertidal. While those in the low-intertidal only face conditions of acute thermal variation, using to a greater extent the plasticity to face these events. Our main results reflect that (1) species that inhabit the high-intertidal maintain a greater integration between their physiological traits and present lower plasticity than those that inhabit the low-intertidal. (2) Inverse relationship that exists between phenotypic plasticity and phenotypic integration of the physiological traits identified, which could help optimize energy resources. In general, the study of multiple physiological traits provides a more accurate picture of how the thermal traits of organisms vary along temperature gradients especially when exposed to conditions close to tolerance limits.

Generality in multispecies responses to ocean acidification revealed through multiple hypothesis testing

Decades of research have demonstrated that many calcifying species are negatively affected by ocean acidification, a major anthropogenic threat in marine ecosystems. However, even closely related species may exhibit different responses to ocean acidification and less is known about the drivers that shape such variation in different species. Here, we examine the drivers of physiological performance under ocean acidification in a group of five species of turf-forming coralline algae. Specifically, quantitating the relative weight of evidence for each of ten hypotheses, we show that variation in coralline calcification and photosynthesis was best explained by allometric traits. Across ocean acidification conditions, larger individuals (measured as noncalcified mass) had higher net calcification and photosynthesis rates. Importantly, our approach was able to not only identify the aspect of size that drove the performance of coralline algae, but also determined that responses to ocean acidification were not dependent on species identity, evolutionary relatedness, habitat, shape, or structural composition. In fact, we found that failure to test multiple, alternative hypotheses would underestimate the generality of physiological performances, leading to the conclusion that each species had different baseline performance under ocean acidification. Testing among alternative hypotheses is an essential step toward determining the generalizability of experiments across taxa and identifying common drivers of species responses to global change.

Pido: Predictive Delay Optimization for Intertidal Wireless Sensor Networks

Intertidal habitats are among the harshest environments on the planet, and have emerged as a model system for exploring the ecological impacts of global climate change. Deploying reliable instrumentation to measure environmental conditions such as temperature is challenging in this environment. The application of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) shows considerable promise as a means of optimizing continuous data collection, but poor link quality and unstable connections between nodes, caused by harsh physical environmental conditions, bring about a delay problem. In this paper, we model and analyze the components of delays in an intertidal wireless sensor network system (IT-WSN). We show that, by properly selecting routing pathways, it is feasible to improve delay. To this end, we propose a Predictive Delay Optimization (Pido) framework, which provides a new metric for routing path selection. Pido incorporates delay introduced by both link quality and node conditions, and designs a classifier to predict future conditions of nodes, i.e., the likely time of aerial exposure at low tide in this case. We evaluate the performance of Pido in both a real IT-WSN system and a large-scale simulation, the result demonstrates that Pido decreases up to 73% of delays on average with limited overhead.

Linking genotype to phenotype in a changing ocean: inferring the genomic architecture of a blue mussel stress response with genome-wide association

A key component to understanding the evolutionary response to a changing climate is linking underlying genetic variation to phenotypic variation in stress response. Here, we use a genome-wide association approach (GWAS) to understand the genetic architecture of calcification rates under simulated climate stress. We take advantage of the genomic gradient across the blue mussel hybrid zone (Mytilus edulis and Mytilus trossulus) in the Gulf of Maine (GOM) to link genetic variation with variance in calcification rates in response to simulated climate change. Falling calcium carbonate saturation states are predicted to negatively impact many marine organisms that build calcium carbonate shells - like blue mussels. We sampled wild mussels and measured net calcification phenotypes after exposing mussels to a 'climate change' common garden, where we raised temperature by 3°C, decreased pH by 0.2 units and limited food supply by filtering out planktonic particles >5 μm, compared to ambient GOM conditions in the summer. This climate change exposure greatly increased phenotypic variation in net calcification rates compared to ambient conditions. We then used regression models to link the phenotypic variation with over 170 000 single nucleotide polymorphism loci (SNPs) generated by genotype by sequencing to identify genomic locations associated with calcification phenotype, and estimate heritability and architecture of the trait. We identified at least one of potentially 2-10 genomic regions responsible for 30% of the phenotypic variation in calcification rates that are potential targets of natural selection by climate change. Our simulations suggest a power of 13.7% with our study's average effective sample size of 118 individuals and rare alleles, but a power of >90% when effective sample size is 900.

Cumulative stress restricts niche filling potential of habitat-forming kelps in a future climate

Climate change is driving range contractions and local population extinctions across the globe. When this affects ecosystem engineers the vacant niches left behind are likely to alter the wider ecosystem unless a similar species can fulfil them.

Here, we explore the stress physiology of two coexisting kelps undergoing opposing range shifts in the Northeast Atlantic and discuss what differences in stress physiology may mean for future niche filling.

We used chlorophyll florescence (F_v/F_m) and differentiation of the heat shock response (HSR) to determine the capacity of the expanding kelp, Laminaria ochroleuca, to move into the higher shore position of the retreating kelp, Laminaria digitata. We applied both single and consecutive exposures to immersed and emersed high and low temperature treatments, replicating low tide exposures experienced in summer and winter.

No interspecific differences in HSR were observed which was surprising given the species’ different biogeographic distributions. However, chlorophyll florescence revealed clear differences between species with L. ochroleuca better equipped to tolerate high immersed temperatures but showed little capacity to tolerate frosts or high emersion temperatures.

Many patterns observed were only apparent after consecutive exposures. Such cumulative effects have largely been overlooked in tolerance experiments on intertidal organisms despite being more representative of the stress experienced in natural habitats. We therefore suggest future experiments incorporate consecutive stress into their design.

Climate change is predicted to result in fewer ground frosts and increased summer temperatures. Therefore, L. ochroleuca may be released from its summer cold limit in winter but still be prevented from moving up the shore due to desiccation in the summer. Laminaria ochroleuca will, however, likely be able to move into tidal pools. Therefore, only partial niche filling by L. ochroleuca will be possible in this system as climate change advances.

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Multimodal in situ datalogging quantifies inter-individual variation in thermal experience and persistent origin effects on gaping behavior among intertidal mussels (Mytilus californianus)

In complex habitats, environmental variation over small spatial scales can equal or exceed larger-scale gradients. This small-scale variation may allow motile organisms to mitigate stressful conditions by choosing benign microhabitats, whereas sessile organisms may rely on other behaviors to cope with environmental stresses in these variable environments. We developed a monitoring system to track body temperature, valve gaping behavior, and posture of individual mussels (Mytilus californianus) in field conditions in the rocky intertidal zone. Neighboring mussels’ body temperatures varied by up to 14°C during low tides. Valve gaping during low tide and postural adjustments, which could theoretically lower body temperature, were not commonly observed. Rather, gaping behavior followed a tidal rhythm at a warm, high intertidal site; this rhythm shifted to a circadian period at a low intertidal site and for mussels continuously submerged in a tidepool. However, individuals within a site varied considerably in time spent gaping when submerged. This behavioral variation could be attributed in part to persistent effects of mussels’ developmental environment. Mussels originating from a wave-protected, warm site gaped more widely, and they remained open for longer periods during high tide than mussels from a wave-exposed, cool site. Variation in behavior was modulated further by recent wave heights and body temperatures during the preceding low tide. These large ranges in body temperatures and durations of valve closure events – which coincide with anaerobic metabolism – support the conclusion that individuals experience “homogeneous” aggregations such as mussel beds in dramatically different fashion, ultimately contributing to physiological variation among neighbors.