Comparison of methods for handling missing data on immunohistochemical markers in survival analysis of breast cancer

Cardiac Reverse Remodeling and Changes in Heart Failure Indices After Transcatheter Tricuspid Valve Replacement in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease

BACKGROUND

There are limited data about changes in cardiac function (cardiac reverse remodeling) and heart failure indices after transcatheter tricuspid valve-in-valve replacement (TT-VIVR). The purpose of this study was to evaluate cardiac reverse remodeling and temporal changes in heart failure indices after TT-VIVR in adults with congenital heart disease.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of adults with congenital heart disease that underwent TT-VIVR and had >6 months of follow-up (January 1, 2011, to April 30, 2023). Echocardiographic indices of cardiac remodeling and heart failure indices (New York Heart Association class, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide), glomerular filtration rate, and model for end-stage liver disease excluding international normalized ratio score) were assessed preintervention and at 1-, 3-, and 5-year postintervention.

RESULTS

Of 39 patients (age 39 [32-46] years), 14 (36%) and 25 (64%) received Melody valve and Sapien valve prosthesis, respectively. At 1-year post-TT-VIVR, there was a temporal improvement in right atrial reservoir strain (17±8% versus 22±8%, P<0.001), right atrial volume (81 [59-108] versus 63 [48-82] mL/m2, P<0.001), right atrial pressure (12±4% versus 6±4%, P<0.001), and right ventricular global longitudinal strain (-15±7% versus -20±7%, P<0.001). Similarly, there was a temporal improvement in NT-proBNP, glomerular filtration rate, model for end-stage liver disease excluding international normalized ratio score, and New York Heart Association class. The temporal improvements in heart failure indices and valve function were maintained at 3- and 5-year post-TT-VIVR.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the significant mortality risk associated with reoperations for tricuspid valve replacement, these data suggest favorable outcomes after TT-VIVR, and support TT-VIVR as a viable alternative to surgical tricuspid valve replacement, especially in high-risk patients.

Prognostic Performance of Right Ventricular Global Longitudinal Strain Measurements in Patients With Ebstein Anomaly

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the prognostic role of right ventricular global longitudinal strain (RVGLS) in patients with Ebstein anomaly.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to assess the relationship between RVGLS and mortality and to compare prognostic performance of RVGLS with conventional echocardiographic indices of right ventricular (RV) systolic function.

METHODS

This study identified adults with Ebstein anomaly with echocardiographic assessment of RV systolic function (RVGLS, RV fractional area change [RVFAC], RV tissue Doppler systolic velocity [RV s'], and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion [TAPSE]) from 2003 to 2020. For ease of presentation, RVGLS was modeled as absolute values (ie, without the negative sign).

RESULTS

Of 620 patients (median age 37 years; men 261 [42%]), the mean absolute RVGLS, RVFAC, RV s', and TAPSE were 18% ± 5%, 32% ± 9%, 14 ± 6 cm/s, and 22 ± 8 mm, respectively. There were correlations between absolute RVGLS and RVFAC (r = 0.71; P < 0.001), between absolute RVGLS and RV s' (r = 0.41; P = 0.03), and between absolute RVGLS and TAPSE (r = 0.44; P = 0.002). Of 620 patients, 47 (8%) died during follow-up, and 34 of these deaths were cardiovascular. Absolute RVGLS was independently associated with all-cause mortality (adjusted HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.92-0.96 per unit increase) and cardiovascular mortality (adjusted HR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.90-0.94 per unit increase). Absolute RVGLS had superior prognostic power (ie, ability to predict mortality) as compared with RVFAC, RV s', or TAPSE.

CONCLUSIONS

These data support the use of RVGLS for risk stratification in Ebstein anomaly, and further studies are required to assess how interventions may affect different patients according to risk stratification.

Relationship between left atrial myopathy and atrial fibrillation in adults with coarctation of aorta

Background

Although patients with coarctation of aorta (COA) have clinical risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF), there are limited data about AF prevalence, and role of left atrial (LA) indices for risk stratification in this population. We hypothesized that LA indices (LA reservoir strain and LA volume index) were associated with AF, and would identify patients at risk for AF progression.

Methods

We analyzed electrocardiograms/Holters, and echocardiograms of adult COA patients at Mayo Clinic (2000-2018).

Results

Of 776 patients, 726(94 %), 46(5.9 %) and 4(0.5 %) had no history of AF, paroxysmal AF, and persistent AF respectively; yielding AF prevalence of 6.4 %. LA reservoir strain (AUC 0.782 [0.751-0.808]) had more robust association with AF as compared to LA volume index (AUC difference -0.115, p < 0.001).Among 726 patients without prior AF, 25(3.4 %) had new-onset AF during follow-up. LA reservoir strain <25 % and LA volume index >34 ml/m2 were independent predictors of new-onset AF (HR 1.81 [1.15-3.85], and HR 1.41 [1.03-4.78], respectively). Of 46 patients with paroxysmal AF, 22(48 %) had recurrent AF, and LA reservoir strain <25 % was an independent predictor of recurrent AF (HR 1.94 [1.41-4.17]). LV pressure overload and stiffness indices were associated with progressive LA dysfunction and new-onset AF.

Conclusions

Collectively, these data suggest that LA strain can potentially be used for AF risk stratification. Further studies are required to determine whether LA strain can proactively identify patients that will respond favorably to different antiarrhythmic therapies, and whether interventions to reduce LV pressure overload will improve LA function and reduce AF progression.

Development and validation of a radiomics-based nomogram for the prediction of postoperative malnutrition in stage IB1-IIA2 cervical carcinoma

Objective

In individuals with stage IB1-IIA2 cervical cancer (CC) who received postoperative radiotherapy ± chemotherapy (PORT/CRT), the interaction between sarcopenia and malnutrition remains elusive, let alone employing a nomogram model based on radiomic features of psoas extracted at the level of the third lumbar vertebra (L3). This study was set to develop a radiomics-based nomogram model to predict malnutrition as per the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) for individuals with CC.

Methods

In total, 120 individuals with CC underwent computed tomography (CT) scans before PORT/CRT. The radiomic features of psoas at L3 were obtained from non-enhanced CT images. Identification of the optimal features and construction of the rad-score formula were conducted utilizing the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression to predict malnutrition in the training dataset (radiomic model). Identification of the major clinical factors in the clinical model was performed by means of binary logistic regression analysis. The radiomics-based nomogram was further developed by integrating radiomic signatures and clinical risk factors (combined model). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curves analysis (DCA) were employed for the evaluation and comparison of the three models in terms of their predictive performance.

Results

Twelve radiomic features in total were chosen, and the rad-score was determined with the help of the non-zero coefficient from LASSO regression. Multivariate analysis revealed that besides rad-score, age and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status could independently predict malnutrition. As per the data of this analysis, a nomogram prediction model was constructed. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) values of the radiomic and clinical models were 0.778 and 0.847 for the training and 0.776 and 0.776 for the validation sets, respectively. An increase in the AUC was observed up to 0.972 and 0.805 in the training and validation sets, respectively, in the combined model. DCA also confirmed the clinical benefit of the combined model.

Conclusion

This radiomics-based nomogram model depicted potential for use as a marker for predicting malnutrition in stage IB1-IIA2 CC patients who underwent PORT/CRT and required further investigation with a large sample size.

Determinants and Prognostic Implications of Hepatorenal Dysfunction in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the prognostic role of hepatorenal function indices in ambulatory patients with congenital heart disease (CHD). The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence, risk factors, and prognostic implications of hepatorenal dysfunction, as measured by Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding International Normalised Ratio (MELD-XI) score, in adults with CHD.

METHODS

In this retrospective study of CHD patients with comprehensive metabolic panels (2003-2019), mild/moderate and severe hepatorenal dysfunction was defined as MELD-XI 11-15 and > 15, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 4977 patients, 1376 (28%) had hepatorenal dysfunction (mild/moderate: n = 935 [19%]; severe: n = 441 [9%]). Hepatorenal dysfunction was most common in Fontan/unrepaired single ventricle (46%) and right heart disease (31%). Baseline MELD-XI was associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.27, CI 1.21-1.33; P < 0.001) after adjustment for age, sex, and congenital heart lesion. In 3864 patients with serial MELD-XI data, there was a temporal increase in MELD-XI, and this was associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR 1.24, CI 1.15-1.36, per unit increase in MELD-XI; P = 0.004), independently from the baseline MELD-XI score. In the subset of 1856 patients that underwent surgical/transcatheter interventions, there was a postoperative reduction in MELD-XI, and this was associated with a lower risk of mortality (HR 0.94, CI 0.90-0.98, per unit decrease in MELD-XI; P = 0.008), independently from the baseline MELD-XI score.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatorenal dysfunction was common in adults with CHD. Both baseline MELD-XI score and temporal changes in MELD-XI were associated with clinical outcomes, and therefore could be used to monitor therapeutic response to interventions and for deterioration in clinical status.

The Landscape of Immune Microenvironments in Racially Diverse Breast Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND

Immunotherapy is a rapidly evolving treatment option in breast cancer; However, the breast cancer immune microenvironment is understudied in Black and younger (<50 years) patients.

METHODS

We used histologic and RNA-based immunoprofiling methods to characterize the breast cancer immune landscape in 1,952 tumors from the Carolina Breast Cancer Study (CBCS), a population-based study that oversampled Black (n = 1,030) and young women (n = 1,039). We evaluated immune response leveraging markers for 10 immune cell populations, compared profiles to those in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Project [n = 1,095 tumors, Black (n = 183), and young women (n = 295)], and evaluated in association with clinical and demographic variables, including recurrence.

RESULTS

Consensus clustering identified three immune clusters in CBCS (adaptive-enriched, innate-enriched, or immune-quiet) that varied in frequency by race, age, tumor grade and subtype; however, only two clusters were identified in TCGA, which were predominantly comprised of adaptive-enriched and innate-enriched tumors. In CBCS, the strongest adaptive immune response was observed for basal-like, HER2-positive (HER2+), triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), and high-grade tumors. Younger patients had higher proportions of adaptive-enriched tumors, particularly among estrogen receptor (ER)-negative (ER-) cases. Black patients had higher frequencies of both adaptive-enriched and innate-enriched tumors. Immune clusters were associated with recurrence among ER- tumors, with adaptive-enriched showing the best and innate-enriched showing the poorest 5-year recurrence-free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that immune microenvironments are intricately related to race, age, tumor subtype, and grade.

IMPACT

Given higher mortality among Black and young women, more defined immune classification using cell-type-specific panels could help explain higher recurrence and ultimately lead to targetable interventions.

Prognostic significance of RNA-based TP53 pathway function among estrogen receptor positive and negative breast cancer cases

TP53 and estrogen receptor (ER) are essential in breast cancer development and progression, but TP53 status (by DNA sequencing or protein expression) has been inconsistently associated with survival. We evaluated whether RNA-based TP53 classifiers are related to survival. Participants included 3213 women in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study (CBCS) with invasive breast cancer (stages I-III). Tumors were classified for TP53 status (mutant-like/wildtype-like) using an RNA signature. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate covariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) among ER- and TP53-defined subtypes. RNA-based results were compared to DNA- and IHC-based TP53 classification, as well as Basal-like versus non-Basal-like subtype. Findings from the diverse (50% Black), population-based CBCS were compared to those from the largely white METABRIC study. RNA-based TP53 mutant-like was associated with BCSS among both ER-negatives and ER-positives (HR (95% CI) = 5.38 (1.84-15.78) and 4.66 (1.79-12.15), respectively). Associations were attenuated when using DNA- or IHC-based TP53 classification. In METABRIC, few ER-negative tumors were TP53-wildtype-like, but TP53 status was a strong predictor of BCSS among ER-positives. In both populations, the effect of TP53 mutant-like status was similar to that for Basal-like subtype. RNA-based measures of TP53 status are strongly associated with BCSS and may have value among ER-negative cancers where few prognostic markers have been robustly validated. Given the role of TP53 in chemotherapeutic response, RNA-based TP53 as a prognostic biomarker could address an unmet need in breast cancer.

Mammographic Density Decline, Tamoxifen Response, and Prognosis by Molecular Characteristics of Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

Mammographic breast density (MBD) decline post-tamoxifen initiation is a favorable prognostic factor in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer (BC) and has potential utility as a biomarker of tamoxifen response. However, the prognostic value of MBD decline may vary by molecular characteristics among ER-positive patients.

METHODS

We investigated associations between MBD decline (≥10% vs <10%) and breast cancer-specific mortality (BCSM) among ER-positive breast cancer patients aged 36-87 years at diagnosis treated with tamoxifen at Kaiser Permanente Northwest (1990-2008). Patients who died of BC (case patients; n = 62) were compared with those who did not (control patients; n = 215) overall and by tumor molecular characteristics (immunohistochemistry [IHC]-based subtype [luminal A-like: ER-positive/progesterone receptor [PR]-positive/HER2-negative/low Ki67; luminal B-like: ER-positive and 1 or more of PR-negative, HER2-positive, high Ki67] and modified IHC [mIHC]-based recurrence score of ER/PR/Ki67). Percent MBD was measured in the unaffected breast at baseline mammogram (mean = 6 months before tamoxifen initiation) and follow-up (mean = 12 months post-tamoxifen initiation). Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed from logistic regression models. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

RESULTS

MBD decline was statistically significantly associated with reduced risk of BCSM overall (OR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.15 to 0.92). This association was, however, stronger among women with aggressive tumor characteristics including luminal B-like (OR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.04 to 0.73) vs A-like (OR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.19 to 2.92); large (OR = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.08 to 0.78) vs small (OR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.04 to 3.79) tumors; PR-negative (OR = 0.02, 95% CI = 0.001 to 0.37) vs PR-positive (OR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.18 to 1.40) disease; and high (OR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.07 to 0.93) vs low (OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.10 to 2.09) mIHC3 score.

CONCLUSION

The findings support MBD decline as a prognostic marker of tamoxifen response among patients with aggressive ER-positive BC phenotypes, for whom understanding treatment effectiveness is critical.

Right Heart Dysfunction in Adults With Coarctation of Aorta: Prevalence and Prognostic Implications

BACKGROUND

Chronic elevation of left heart filling pressure causes pulmonary vascular remodeling, pulmonary hypertension, and right heart dysfunction. Although diastolic dysfunction is relatively common in patients with coarctation of aorta, there are limited data about the prevalence and prognostic implications of pulmonary hypertension and right heart dysfunction in this population. The purpose of the study was to assess right heart function and hemodynamics in patients with coarctation of aorta and to determine the relationship between right heart indices and cardiovascular events defined as heart failure hospitalization, heart transplant, or cardiovascular death.

METHODS

Right heart structure, function, and hemodynamics were assessed with these indices: right atrial volume, right atrial pressure, right atrial reservoir strain, right ventricular global longitudinal strain, right ventricular end-diastolic area, right ventricular systolic pressure, and tricuspid regurgitation severity. Right heart hemodynamic score, range 0 to 5, was generated based on the correlation between the right heart indices and cardiovascular events, using half of the cohort (derivation cohort, n=411), and then tested on the validation cohort (n=410). The goodness of fit and discrimination power was compared using C statistics and risk score.

RESULTS

The median follow-up in the derivation cohort was 8.2 (4.0-11.1) years, and 59 (14%) patients had cardiovascular events during this period. Right heart hemodynamic score was independently associated with cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.38-2.17]) for every unit increase in right heart hemodynamic score after adjustment for clinical and echocardiographic indices (C statistic, 0.718 [95% CI, 0.682-0.746]). The right heart hemodynamic score was also independently associated with cardiovascular events in the validation cohort (C statistic, 0.711 [95% CI, 0.679-0.741]). The C statistic difference (0.007 [95% CI, 0.014-0.022]) and risk score (0.86 [95% CI, 0.54-1.17]) suggest a good model fit.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study underscores the prognostic importance of right heart dysfunction in patients with coarctation of aorta and suggests that right heart indices should be used for risks stratification in this population.

Molecular and clinical characterization of postpartum-associated breast cancer in the Carolina Breast Cancer Study Phase I-III, 1993-2013

BACKGROUND

Breast cancers in recently postpartum women may have worse outcomes, but studies examining tumor molecular features by pregnancy recency have shown conflicting results.

METHODS

This analysis used Carolina Breast Cancer Study data to examine clinical and molecular tumor features among women <50 years of age who were recently ( {less than or equal to} 10 years prior), or remotely (>10 years prior) postpartum, or nulliparous. Prevalence odds ratios (PORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable models.

RESULTS

Recently postpartum women (N=618) were more frequently lymph node positive [POR (95% CI): 1.66 (1.26, 2.19)], ER negative [1.37 (1.02, 1.83)], and IHC-based triple negative [1.57 (1.00, 2.47)] compared to nulliparous (N=360) women. Some differences were identified between recent vs. remotely postpartum; smaller tumor size [0.67 (0.52, 0.86)], p53 wildtype [0.53 (0.36, 0.77)], and non-basal-like phenotype [0.53 (0.33, 0.84)] were more common among recently postpartum. Recently postpartum (vs. nulliparous) had significant enrichment for adaptive immunity, T cells, B cells, CD8 T cells, activated CD8 T cells/NK cells, Tfh cells and higher overall immune cell scores. These differences were attenuated in remotely (compared to recently) postpartum women.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest a dominant effect of parity (vs. nulliparity) and a lesser effect of pregnancy recency on tumor molecular features, although tumor immune microenvironments were altered in association with pregnancy recency.

IMPACT

Our study is unique in examining tumor immune microenvironment and RNA-based markers according to time since last childbirth. Future studies should examine the interplay between tumor features, post-diagnostic treatment and outcomes among recently postpartum women.

The relationship between wasting and stunting in Cambodian children: Secondary analysis of longitudinal data of children below 24 months of age followed up until the age of 59 months

The interrelationship between wasting and stunting has been poorly investigated. We assessed the association between two indicators of linear growth, height-for-age Z-score (HAZ) change and occurrence of accelerated linear growth, and selected indicators of wasting and wasting reversal in 5,172 Cambodian children aged less than 24 months at enrolment in the 'MyHealth' study. The specific objectives were to evaluate the relationship between temporal changes in wasting and 1) change in HAZ and 2) episodes of accelerated linear growth. At enrolment, the stunting and wasting prevalence were 22.2 (21.0;23.3) % and 9.1 (8.1;10.1) %, respectively, and reached 41.4 (39.3;43.6) %, and 12.4 (11.5;13.3) % respectively, two years later. Between 14-19% of stunted children were also wasted throughout the whole study period. For each centimetre increase in Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from the previous assessment, the HAZ increased by 0.162 (0.150; 0.174) Z-score. We also observed a delayed positive association between the weight for height Z score (WHZ) unit increase and HAZ change of +0.10 to +0.22 units consistent with a positive relationship between linear growth and an increase in WHZ occurring with a lag of approximately three months. A similar positive correlation was observed for the occurrence of an episode of accelerated linear growth. These results show that interventions to prevent and treat wasting can contribute to stunting reduction and call for integrated wasting and stunting programming.

Coarctation of aorta is associated with left ventricular stiffness, left atrial dysfunction and pulmonary hypertension

BACKGROUND

Brachial systolic blood pressure (BP) is the most commonly used metric for monitoring hypertension. However, recent studies suggest that brachial systolic BP underestimates left ventricle (LV) systolic load in patients with coarctation of aorta (COA). Since brachial systolic BP is used as a surrogate of arterial afterload in clinical practice, it is important to determine how well it correlates with LV remodeling and stiffness in patients with COA as compared to patients with idiopathic hypertension.

METHODS

This is cross-sectional study of COA patients with hypertension (COA group) and adults with idiopathic hypertension (control group). Both groups were matched 1:1 based on age, sex, BMI and systolic BP. We hypothesized that the COA group will have higher LV systolic and diastolic stiffness, and more advanced left atrial remodeling and pulmonary hypertension. We assessed LV systolic stiffness using end-systolic elastance, and diastolic stiffness using LV stiffness constant and chamber capacitance (LV-end-diastolic volume at an end-diastolic pressure of 20mm Hg) RESULTS: There were 112 patients in each group. Although both groups had similar systolic BP, the COA group had a higher end-systolic elastance (2.37 ± 0.74 vs 2.11 ± 0.54 mm Hg/mL, P= .008), higher LV stiffness constant (6.91 ± 0.81 vs 5.93 ± 0.79, P= .006) and lower LV-end-diastolic volume at an end-diastolic pressure of 20mm Hg (58 ± 9 vs 67 ± 11 mL/m², P< .001). Additionally, the COA group had more advanced left atrial remodeling and higher pulmonary artery pressures which is corroborating evidence of high LV filling pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

COA patients have more LV stiffness and abnormal hemodynamics compared to non-COA patients with similar systolic BP, suggesting that systolic BP may underestimate LV systolic load in this population. Further studies are required to determine whether the observed LV stiffness and dysfunction translates to more cardiovascular events during follow-up, and whether adopting a stricter systolic BP target in clinical practice or changing threshold for COA intervention will lead to less LV stiffness and better clinical outcomes.

A Novel Approach Integrating Hierarchical Clustering and Weighted Combination for Association Study of Multiple Phenotypes and a Genetic Variant

As a pivotal research tool, genome-wide association study has successfully identified numerous genetic variants underlying distinct diseases. However, these identified genetic variants only explain a small proportion of the phenotypic variation for certain diseases, suggesting that there are still more genetic signals to be detected. One of the reasons may be that one-phenotype one-variant association study is not so efficient in detecting variants of weak effects. Nowadays, it is increasingly worth noting that joint analysis of multiple phenotypes may boost the statistical power to detect pathogenic variants with weak genetic effects on complex diseases, providing more clues for their underlying biology mechanisms. So a Weighted Combination of multiple phenotypes following Hierarchical Clustering method (WCHC) is proposed for simultaneously analyzing multiple phenotypes in association studies. A series of simulations are conducted, and the results show that WCHC is either the most powerful method or comparable with the most powerful competitor in most of the simulation scenarios. Additionally, we evaluated the performance of WCHC in its application to the obesity-related phenotypes from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, and several associated variants are reported.

Recurrent sustained atrial arrhythmias and thromboembolism in Fontan patients with total cavopulmonary connection

Background

Total cavopulmonary connection (TCPC) is associated with a lower risk of incident atrial arrhythmias as compared to atriopulmonary Fontan, but the risk of recurrent atrial arrhythmias is unknown in this population. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence and risk factors for recurrent atrial arrhythmias and thromboembolic complications in patients with TCPC.

Methods

This is a retrospective multicenter study conducted by the Alliance for Adult Research in Congenital Cardiology (AARCC), 2000-2018. The inclusion criteria were TCPC patients (age > 15 years) with prior history of atrial arrhythmia.

Results

A total of 103 patients (age 26 ± 7 years; male 58 [56%]) met inclusion criteria. The mean age at initial arrhythmia diagnosis was 13 ± 5 years, and atrial arrhythmias were classified as atrial flutter/tachycardia in 85 (83%) and atrial fibrillation in 18 (17%). The median duration of follow-up from the first episode of atrial arrhythmia was 14.9 (12.1-17.3) years, and during this period 64 (62%) patients had recurrent atrial arrhythmias (atrial flutter/tachycardia 51 [80%] and atrial fibrillation 13 [20%]) with annual incidence of 4.4%. Older age was a risk factor for arrhythmia recurrence while the use of a class III anti-arrhythmic drug was associated with a lower risk of recurrent arrhythmias. The incidence of thromboembolic complication was 0.6% per year, and the cumulative incidence was 4% and 7% at 5 and 10 years respectively from the time of first atrial arrhythmia diagnosis. There were no identifiable risk factors for thromboembolic complications in this cohort.

Conclusions

Although TCPC provides superior flow dynamics and lower risk of incident atrial arrhythmias, there is a significant risk of recurrent arrhythmias among TCPC patients with a prior history of atrial arrhythmias. These patients may require more intensive arrhythmia surveillance as compared to other TCPC patients.

Explainable machine learning can outperform Cox regression predictions and provide insights in breast cancer survival

Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) analysis is the standard for survival analysis in oncology. Recently, several machine learning (ML) techniques have been adapted for this task. Although they have shown to yield results at least as good as classical methods, they are often disregarded because of their lack of transparency and little to no explainability, which are key for their adoption in clinical settings. In this paper, we used data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry of 36,658 non-metastatic breast cancer patients to compare the performance of CPH with ML techniques (Random Survival Forests, Survival Support Vector Machines, and Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGB]) in predicting survival using the [Formula: see text]-index. We demonstrated that in our dataset, ML-based models can perform at least as good as the classical CPH regression ([Formula: see text]-index [Formula: see text]), and in the case of XGB even better ([Formula: see text]-index [Formula: see text]). Furthermore, we used Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values to explain the models' predictions. We concluded that the difference in performance can be attributed to XGB's ability to model nonlinearities and complex interactions. We also investigated the impact of specific features on the models' predictions as well as their corresponding insights. Lastly, we showed that explainable ML can generate explicit knowledge of how models make their predictions, which is crucial in increasing the trust and adoption of innovative ML techniques in oncology and healthcare overall.

Risk factors for breast cancer development by tumor characteristics among women with benign breast disease

Background

Among women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer, 30% have a prior diagnosis of benign breast disease (BBD). Thus, it is important to identify factors among BBD patients that elevate invasive cancer risk. In the general population, risk factors differ in their associations by clinical pathologic features; however, whether women with BBD show etiologic heterogeneity in the types of breast cancers they develop remains unknown.

Methods

Using a nested case-control study of BBD and breast cancer risk conducted in a community healthcare plan (Kaiser Permanente Northwest), we assessed relationships of histologic features in BBD biopsies and patient characteristics with subsequent breast cancer risk and tested for heterogeneity of associations by estrogen receptor (ER) status, tumor grade, and size. The study included 514 invasive breast cancer cases (median follow-up of 9 years post-BBD diagnosis) and 514 matched controls, diagnosed with proliferative or non-proliferative BBD between 1971 and 2006, with follow-up through mid-2015. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using multivariable polytomous logistic regression models.

Results

Breast cancers were predominantly ER-positive (86%), well or moderately differentiated (73%), small (74% < 20 mm), and stage I/II (91%). Compared to patients with non-proliferative BBD, proliferative BBD with atypia conferred increased risk for ER-positive cancer (OR = 5.48, 95% CI = 2.14–14.01) with only one ER-negative case, P-heterogeneity = 0.45. The presence of columnar cell lesions (CCLs) at BBD diagnosis was associated with a 1.5-fold increase in the risk of both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, with a 2-fold increase (95% CI = 1.21–3.58) observed among postmenopausal women (56%), independent of proliferative BBD status with and without atypia. We did not identify statistically significant differences in risk factor associations by tumor grade or size.

Conclusion

Most tumors that developed after a BBD diagnosis in this cohort were highly treatable low-stage ER-positive tumors. CCL in BBD biopsies may be associated with moderately increased risk, independent of BBD histology, and irrespective of ER status.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13058-021-01410-1.

Determinants of Left Ventricular Diastolic Function and Exertional Symptoms in Adults With Coarctation of Aorta

BACKGROUND

Coarctation of aorta (COA) results in chronic left ventricular (LV) pressure overload and subsequently leads to LV diastolic dysfunction and heart failure over time. The goal of COA intervention is to prevent these complications. The timing of COA interventions is based on the presence of these COA severity indices: doppler mean COA gradient, systolic blood pressure, upper-to-lower-extremity SBP gradient, aortic isthmus ratio, presence of collaterals, and exercise-induced hypertension. Although these indices are physiologically intuitive, the relationship between these indices and LV diastolic dysfunction and exertional symptoms has not been studied. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between the indices of COA severity and LV diastolic function and symptoms.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses were used to assess the correlation between indices of COA severity, LV diastolic function (average e' and E/e'), and exertional symptoms (NYHA II-IV and peak oxygen consumption).

RESULTS

Of all the COA indices analyzed in 546 adult COA patients, aortic isthmus ratio had the strongest correlation with e' (β [95% CI]: 3.11 [2.02-4.31]; P=0.014) per 1 cm/second; E/e' (-13.4 [-22.3 to -4.81]; P=0.009) per 1 unit; peak oxygen consumption (4.05 [1.97-6.59] per 1% change, P=0.019), and NYHA II to IV symptoms (odds ratio, 2.16 [1.65-3.18]; P=0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

Of all the COA severity indices stipulated in the guidelines, aortic isthmus ratio had the strongest correlation with LV diastolic function and exertional symptoms. As LV diastolic dysfunction typically precede heart failure symptoms, we anticipate that the results of this study will improve and simplify patient selection for COA intervention and potentially improve long-term outcomes.

Prognostic Factors in a Large Nationwide Cohort of Histologically Confirmed Primary and Secondary Angiosarcomas

Angiosarcoma (AS) is a rare sarcoma of endothelial origin, arising spontaneously (primary AS) or after external damage such as radiation therapy or UV exposure (secondary AS). To date, reliable assessment of prognostic factors has proven difficult, due to disease rarity and heterogeneity of study cohorts. Although large registries provide relatively large AS patient series, these cases often lack histological confirmation. This study aimed to analyze AS prognostic factors in a large nationwide cohort of histologically confirmed cases, established through linkage of clinical data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and pathology data from the Dutch pathology registry (PALGA). All cases were reviewed by an expert pathologist, showing a 16% discordance rate. Multivariable Cox regression survival analysis among 479 confirmed AS patients revealed remarkably poorer overall survival (OS) for primary AS compared to secondary AS (7 vs 21 months, Hazard ratio (HR) = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2–1.9). Age above 65 years, male gender, and no surgical treatment also significantly correlated to worse OS. Overall, OS was relatively poor, with a median of 13 months (95% CI = 10–16 months) and 22% five-year survival rate. With this study, we illustrate AS heterogeneity in clinical behavior and show for the first time better survival for secondary AS compared to primary AS.

A Comparison of Missing-Data Imputation Techniques in Exploratory Factor Analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

To compare the effects of missing-data imputation techniques, mean imputation, group mean imputation, regression imputation, and multiple imputation (MI), on the results of exploratory factor analysis under different missing assumptions.

METHODS

Missing data with different missing assumptions were generated from true data. The quality of imputed data was examined by correlation coefficients. Factor structures were compared indirectly by coefficients of congruence and directly by factor structures.

RESULTS

MI had the best quality and matching factor structure to the true data for all missing assumptions with different missing rates. Mean imputation had the least favorable results in factor analysis. The imputation techniques revealed no important differences with 10% of data missing.

CONCLUSION

MI showed the best results, especially with larger proportions of missing data.

Breast cancer subtype and screening sensitivity in the Quebec Mammography Screening Program

Objective

In mammography screening, interval cancers present a problem. The metric ‘screening sensitivity’ monitors both how well a programme detects cancers and avoids interval cancers. To our knowledge, the effect of breast cancer surrogate molecular subtypes on screening sensitivity has never been evaluated. We aimed to measure the 2-year screening sensitivity according to breast cancer subtypes.

Methods

We studied 734 women with an invasive breast cancer diagnosed between 2003 and 2007 after participating in one regional division of Quebec’s Mammography Screening Program. They represented 83% of all participating women with an invasive BC diagnosis in that region for that period. Tumours were categorized into ‘luminal A-like’, ‘luminal B-like’, ‘triple-negative’ and ‘HER2-positive’ subtypes. We used logistic regression and marginal standardization to estimate screening sensitivity, sensitivity ratios (SR) and sensitivity differences. We also assessed the mediating effect of grade.

Results

Adjusted 2-year screening sensitivity was 75.4% in luminal A-like, 66.1% in luminal B-like, 52.9% in triple-negative and 45.3% in HER2-positive, translating into sensitivity ratios of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.78–0.98) for luminal B-like, 0.70 (CI = 0.56–0.88) for triple-negative and 0.60 (CI = 0.39–0.93) for HER2-positive, when compared with luminal A-like. Grade entirely mediated the subtype-sensitivity association for triple negative and mediated it partly for HER2-positive. Screening round (prevalent vs. incident) did not modify results.

Conclusion

There was substantial variation in screening sensitivity according to breast cancer subtypes. Aggressive phenotypes showed the lowest sensitivity, an effect that was mediated by grade. Tailoring screening according to women’s subtype risk factors might eventually lead to more efficient programs.

A novel method to test associations between a weighted combination of phenotypes and genetic variants

Many complex diseases like diabetes, hypertension, metabolic syndrome, et cetera, are measured by multiple correlated phenotypes. However, most genome-wide association studies (GWAS) focus on one phenotype of interest or study multiple phenotypes separately for identifying genetic variants associated with complex diseases. Analyzing one phenotype or the related phenotypes separately may lose power due to ignoring the information obtained by combining phenotypes, such as the correlation between phenotypes. In order to increase statistical power to detect genetic variants associated with complex diseases, we develop a novel method to test a weighted combination of multiple phenotypes (WCmulP). We perform extensive simulation studies as well as real data (COPDGene) analysis to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Our simulation results show that WCmulP has correct type I error rates and is either the most powerful test or comparable to the most powerful test among the methods we compared. WCmulP also has an outstanding performance for identifying single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with COPD-related phenotypes.

LINE-1 methylation status in prostate cancer and non-neoplastic tissue adjacent to tumor in association with mortality

Aberrant DNA methylation seems to be associated with prostate cancer behavior. We investigated LINE-1 methylation in prostate cancer and non-neoplastic tissue adjacent to tumor (NTAT) in association with mortality from prostate cancer. We selected 157 prostate cancer patients with available NTAT from 2 cohorts of patients diagnosed between 1982-1988 and 1993-1996, followed up until 2010. An association between LINE-1 hypomethylation and prostate cancer mortality in tumor was suggested [hazard ratio per 5% decrease in LINE-1 methylation levels: 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95-2.01]. After stratification of the patients for Gleason score, the association was present only for those with a Gleason score of at least 8. Among these, low (<75%) vs. high (>80%) LINE-1 methylation was associated with a hazard ratio of 4.68 (95% CI: 1.03-21.34). LINE-1 methylation in the NTAT was not associated with prostate cancer mortality. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that tumor tissue global hypomethylation may be a late event in prostate cancerogenesis and is associated with tumor progression.

Prognostic value of automated KI67 scoring in breast cancer: a centralised evaluation of 8088 patients from 10 study groups

BACKGROUND

The value of KI67 in breast cancer prognostication has been questioned due to concerns on the analytical validity of visual KI67 assessment and methodological limitations of published studies. Here, we investigate the prognostic value of automated KI67 scoring in a large, multicentre study, and compare this with pathologists' visual scores available in a subset of patients.

METHODS

We utilised 143 tissue microarrays containing 15,313 tumour tissue cores from 8088 breast cancer patients in 10 collaborating studies. A total of 1401 deaths occurred during a median follow-up of 7.5 years. Centralised KI67 assessment was performed using an automated scoring protocol. The relationship of KI67 levels with 10-year breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) was investigated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusted for known prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Patients in the highest quartile of KI67 (>12 % positive KI67 cells) had a worse 10-year BCSS than patients in the lower three quartiles. This association was statistically significant for ER-positive patients (hazard ratio (HR) (95 % CI) at baseline = 1.96 (1.31-2.93); P = 0.001) but not for ER-negative patients (1.23 (0.86-1.77); P = 0.248) (P-heterogeneity = 0.064). In spite of differences in characteristics of the study populations, the estimates of HR were consistent across all studies (P-heterogeneity = 0.941 for ER-positive and P-heterogeneity = 0.866 for ER-negative). Among ER-positive cancers, KI67 was associated with worse prognosis in both node-negative (2.47 (1.16-5.27)) and node-positive (1.74 (1.05-2.86)) tumours (P-heterogeneity = 0.671). Further classification according to ER, PR and HER2 showed statistically significant associations with prognosis among hormone receptor-positive patients regardless of HER2 status (P-heterogeneity = 0.270) and among triple-negative patients (1.70 (1.02-2.84)). Model fit parameters were similar for visual and automated measures of KI67 in a subset of 2440 patients with information from both sources.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this large-scale multicentre analysis with centrally generated automated KI67 scores show strong evidence in support of a prognostic value for automated KI67 scoring in breast cancer. Given the advantages of automated scoring in terms of its potential for standardisation, reproducibility and throughput, automated methods appear to be promising alternatives to visual scoring for KI67 assessment.

Evaluation of techniques for handling missing cost-to-charge ratios in the USA Nationwide Inpatient Sample: a simulation study

AIM

Evaluate performance of techniques used to handle missing cost-to-charge ratio (CCR) data in the USA Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's Nationwide Inpatient Sample.

METHODS

Four techniques to replace missing CCR data were evaluated: deleting discharges with missing CCRs (complete case analysis), reweighting as recommended by Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, reweighting by adjustment cells and hot deck imputation by adjustment cells. Bias and root mean squared error of these techniques on hospital cost were evaluated in five disease cohorts.

RESULTS & CONCLUSION

Similar mean cost estimates would be obtained with any of the four techniques when the percentage of missing data is low (<10%). When total cost is the outcome of interest, a reweighting technique to avoid underestimation from dropping observations with missing data should be adopted.

Crowdsourcing the General Public for Large Scale Molecular Pathology Studies in Cancer

BACKGROUND

Citizen science, scientific research conducted by non-specialists, has the potential to facilitate biomedical research using available large-scale data, however validating the results is challenging. The Cell Slider is a citizen science project that intends to share images from tumors with the general public, enabling them to score tumor markers independently through an internet-based interface.

METHODS

From October 2012 to June 2014, 98,293 Citizen Scientists accessed the Cell Slider web page and scored 180,172 sub-images derived from images of 12,326 tissue microarray cores labeled for estrogen receptor (ER). We evaluated the accuracy of Citizen Scientist's ER classification, and the association between ER status and prognosis by comparing their test performance against trained pathologists.

FINDINGS

The area under ROC curve was 0.95 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.96) for cancer cell identification and 0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.97) for ER status. ER positive tumors scored by Citizen Scientists were associated with survival in a similar way to that scored by trained pathologists. Survival probability at 15 years were 0.78 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.80) for ER-positive and 0.72 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.77) for ER-negative tumors based on Citizen Scientists classification. Based on pathologist classification, survival probability was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.81) for ER-positive and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) for ER-negative tumors. The hazard ratio for death was 0.26 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.37) at diagnosis and became greater than one after 6.5 years of follow-up for ER scored by Citizen Scientists, and 0.24 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.33) at diagnosis increasing thereafter to one after 6.7 (95% CI 4.1 to 10.9) years of follow-up for ER scored by pathologists.

INTERPRETATION

Crowdsourcing of the general public to classify cancer pathology data for research is viable, engages the public and provides accurate ER data. Crowdsourced classification of research data may offer a valid solution to problems of throughput requiring human input.

Role of tumour molecular and pathology features to estimate colorectal cancer risk for first-degree relatives

OBJECTIVE

To estimate risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) for first-degree relatives of CRC cases based on CRC molecular subtypes and tumour pathology features.

DESIGN

We studied a cohort of 33,496 first-degree relatives of 4853 incident invasive CRC cases (probands) who were recruited to the Colon Cancer Family Registry through population cancer registries in the USA, Canada and Australia. We categorised the first-degree relatives into four groups: 28,156 of 4095 mismatch repair (MMR)-proficient probands, 2302 of 301 MMR-deficient non-Lynch syndrome probands, 1799 of 271 suspected Lynch syndrome probands and 1239 of 186 Lynch syndrome probands. We compared CRC risk for first-degree relatives stratified by the absence or presence of specific tumour molecular pathology features in probands across each of these four groups and for all groups combined.

RESULTS

Compared with first-degree relatives of MMR-proficient CRC cases, a higher risk of CRC was estimated for first-degree relatives of CRC cases with suspected Lynch syndrome (HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.59 to 2.67) and with Lynch syndrome (HR 5.37, 95% CI 4.16 to 6.94), but not with MMR-deficient non-Lynch syndrome (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.31). A greater risk of CRC was estimated for first-degree relatives if CRC cases were diagnosed before age 50 years, had proximal colon cancer or if their tumours had any of the following: expanding tumour margin, peritumoral lymphocytes, tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes or synchronous CRC.

CONCLUSIONS

Molecular pathology features are potentially useful to refine screening recommendations for first-degree relatives of CRC cases and to identify which cases are more likely to be caused by genetic or other familial factors.

Association between CD8+ T-cell infiltration and breast cancer survival in 12,439 patients

BACKGROUND

T-cell infiltration in estrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast tumours has been associated with longer survival. To investigate this association and the potential of tumour T-cell infiltration as a prognostic and predictive marker, we have conducted the largest study of T cells in breast cancer to date.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Four studies totalling 12 439 patients were used for this work. Cytotoxic (CD8+) and regulatory (forkhead box protein 3, FOXP3+) T cells were quantified using immunohistochemistry (IHC). IHC for CD8 was conducted using available material from all four studies (8978 samples) and for FOXP3 from three studies (5239 samples)-multiple imputation was used to resolve missing data from the remaining patients. Cox regression was used to test for associations with breast cancer-specific survival.

RESULTS

In ER-negative tumours [triple-negative breast cancer and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive)], presence of CD8+ T cells within the tumour was associated with a 28% [95% confidence interval (CI) 16% to 38%] reduction in the hazard of breast cancer-specific mortality, and CD8+ T cells within the stroma with a 21% (95% CI 7% to 33%) reduction in hazard. In ER-positive HER2-positive tumours, CD8+ T cells within the tumour were associated with a 27% (95% CI 4% to 44%) reduction in hazard. In ER-negative disease, there was evidence for greater benefit from anthracyclines in the National Epirubicin Adjuvant Trial in patients with CD8+ tumours [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.54; 95% CI 0.37-0.79] versus CD8-negative tumours (HR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.55-1.38). The difference in effect between these subgroups was significant when limited to cases with complete data (P heterogeneity = 0.04) and approached significance in imputed data (P heterogeneity = 0.1).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of CD8+ T cells in breast cancer is associated with a significant reduction in the relative risk of death from disease in both the ER-negative [supplementary Figure S1, available at Annals of Oncology online] and the ER-positive HER2-positive subtypes. Tumour lymphocytic infiltration may improve risk stratification in breast cancer patients classified into these subtypes. NEAT ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00003577.

Item non-response on self-reported depression screening questionnaire among community-dwelling elderly

BACKGROUND

In responses to self-reported depression screening questionnaires, item non-response, which refers to the absence of answers to specific questions, is problematic. The objective of this study were (1) to clarify the features of respondents with item non-response on a self-reported elderly depression screening questionnaire (15-item geriatric depression scale; GDS-15) as compared to respondents with full responses, and (2) to compare positive depression screening rates calculated using two methods: excluding respondents with item non-response (complete case analysis; CCA) and estimating by multiplying mean scores from valid responses by the total number of GDS-15 items for respondents with item non-response.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study conducted from 2010 to 2012. Of 4794 elderly subjects (65 years and older) living in one town in Japan 2836 community-dwelling elderly people (59.2%) were included in the analysis.

RESULTS

Item non-response was observed in 25.0% of respondents. Respondents with item non-response had a higher rate of depression and mental and physical problems. Respondents with depression (estimated GDS-15 score ≥6) and suicidal ideation both had a 1.6-times higher risk of item non-response on the GDS-15. The positive depression screening rate on GDS-15 by CCA was 16.5%, compared with 18.9% when calculated by the estimated GDS-15 score.

LIMITATIONS

Our survey was conducted in one rural area and targeted only elderly people.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of item non-response among community-dwelling elderly people was associated with depression of the respondent. Excluding subjects with item non-response when calculating positive depression screening rates in elderly individuals causes the rate to be underestimated.

Smoking at time of diagnosis and breast cancer-specific survival: new findings and systematic review with meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

In women with breast cancer who smoke, it is unclear whether smoking could impair their survival from the disease.

METHODS

We examined the relation of smoking at diagnosis to breast cancer-specific and overall survival among 5,892 women with invasive breast cancer treated in one Canadian center (1987 to 2008). Women were classified as never, former or current smokers. Current smokers were further classified according to total, intensity and duration of smoking. Deaths were identified through linkage to population mortality data. Cox proportional-hazards multivariate models were used. A systematic review with meta-analysis combines new findings with published results.

RESULTS

Compared with never smokers, current smokers at diagnosis had a slightly, but not statistically significant, higher breast cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio = 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.97 to 1.37). Among current smokers, breast cancer-specific mortality increased with total exposure to, intensity and duration of smoking (all Ptrend <0.05). Compared to never smokers, breast cancer-specific mortality was 32 to 56% higher among heavy smokers (more than 30 pack years of smoking, more than 20 cigarettes per day or more than 30 years of smoking). Smoking at diagnosis was associated with an increased all-cause mortality rate. A meta-analysis of all studies showed a statistically significant, 33% increased mortality from breast cancer in women with breast cancer who are smokers at diagnosis compared to never smokers (hazard ratio = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.12 to 1.58).

CONCLUSIONS

Available evidence to date indicates that smoking at diagnosis is associated with a reduction of both overall and breast cancer-specific survival. Studies of the effect of smoking cessation after diagnosis on breast cancer-specific outcomes are needed.

Evaluation of protein biomarkers of prostate cancer aggressiveness

BACKGROUND

Prognostic multibiomarker signatures in prostate cancer (PCa) may improve patient management and provide a bridge for developing novel therapeutics and imaging methods. Our objective was to evaluate the association between expression of 33 candidate protein biomarkers and time to biochemical failure (BF) after prostatectomy.

METHODS

PCa tissue microarrays were constructed representing 160 patients for whom clinicopathologic features and follow-up data after surgery were available. Immunohistochemistry for each of 33 proteins was quantified using automated digital pathology techniques. Relationships between clinicopathologic features, staining intensity, and time to BF were assessed. Predictive modeling using multiple imputed datasets was performed to identify the top biomarker candidates.

RESULTS

In univariate analyses, lymph node positivity, surgical margin positivity, non-localized tumor, age at prostatectomy, and biomarkers CCND1, HMMR, IGF1, MKI67, SIAH2, and SMAD4 in malignant epithelium were significantly associated with time to BF. HMMR, IGF1, and SMAD4 remained significantly associated with BF after adjusting for clinicopathologic features while additional associations were observed for HOXC6 and MAP4K4 following adjustment. In multibiomarker predictive models, 3 proteins including HMMR, SIAH2, and SMAD4 were consistently represented among the top 2, 3, 4, and 5 most predictive biomarkers, and a signature comprised of these proteins best predicted BF at 3 and 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides rationale for investigation of HMMR, HOXC6, IGF1, MAP4K4, SIAH2, and SMAD4 as biomarkers of PCa aggressiveness in larger cohorts.

Construction and analysis of multiparameter prognostic models for melanoma outcome

The outcome of Stage II melanoma is uncertain. Despite that 10-year melanoma-specific survival can approach 50 % following curative-intent wide local excision and negative sentinel lymph node biopsy, the adverse risk-benefit ratio of interferon-based adjuvant regimens precludes their use in most patients. The discovery and translation of protein-based prognostic biomarkers into the clinic offers the promise for residual risk stratification of Stage II melanoma patients beyond conventional clinicopathologic criteria to identify an additional subset of patients who, based upon tumor molecular profiles, might also derive benefit from adjuvant regimens. Despite incorporation of Ki-67 assays into clinical practice, systematic review of REMARK-compliant, immunostain-based prognostic biomarker assays in melanoma suggests that residual risk of recurrence might be best explained by a composite score derived from a small panel of proteins representing independent features of melanoma biology. Reflecting this trend, to date, five such multiparameter melanoma prognostic models have been published. Here, we review these five models and provide detailed protocols for discovering and validating multiparameter models including: appropriate cohort recruitment strategies, comprehensive laboratory protocols supporting fully quantitative chromogenic or fluorescent immunostaining platforms, statistical approaches to create composite prognostic indices recommended steps for model validation in independent cohorts.

Prognosis of early breast cancer by immunohistochemistry defined intrinsic sub-types in patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy in the NEAT/BR9601 trial

Breast cancer can be classified into molecular sub-types that have distinct survival patterns. We evaluated the prognostic significance of breast cancer sub-types in a cohort of women taking part in the NEAT and BR9601 clinical trials comparing cyclophosphamide, methotrexate and fluorouracil (CMF) with ECMF (epirubicin and CMF). Furthermore, we evaluated whether the sub-types were predictive of the added benefit of epirubicin in these trials. Tumour tissue microarrays were stained and scored for ER, PR, HER2, EGFR and CK5/6. These were used to classify the tumours into six intrinsic sub-types. We used Cox regression to compare overall survival (OS), breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) in the different sub-groups. We also compared the effect of ECMF with CMF by sub-group. Immunohistochemistry data were available for 1,725 cases of whom 805 were luminal 1-basal negative. Median follow-up time was 7 years. The luminal 1-basal negative tumours were associated with the best prognosis in five years after surgery and the HER2-like tumours were associated with the poorest prognosis. There was little evidence for significant heterogeneity of this effect by tumour sub-type (OS p = 0.40, BCSS p = 0.53 RFS p = 0.50) - the largest additional benefit of epirubicin was in women with tumours of the 5-negative phenotype (OS HR = 0.39 95% CI: 0.21-0.73) and the smallest was in Luminal 1-basal negative tumours (OS HR = 0.86 95% CI: 0.64-1.16). We confirmed that breast cancer sub-types show distinct behaviour with differences in short- and long-term survival. The benefit of ECMF over CMF was statistically similar in all disease sub-types.

Low risk of second primary malignancies among never smokers with human papillomavirus-associated index oropharyngeal cancers

BACKGROUND

Among patients with index oropharyngeal cancer, second primary malignancies (SPMs) may be less common in cases of human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated tumors than HPV-negative tumors. Further modification of these SPM risks by smoking has not been reported.

METHODS

SPM outcomes of 356 patients with incident oropharyngeal cancer were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards and Kaplan-Meier models. SPM risk and SPM-free survival were compared in HPV-seronegative patients, HPV-seropositive never smokers, and HPV-seropositive ever smokers.

RESULTS

HPV-seropositive patients had a lower 5-year SPM rate than HPV-seronegative patients (5.6% vs 14.6%; p = .051). Compared to HPV-seronegative patients, HPV-seropositive never smokers had a 73% reduced SPM risk, and HPV-seropositive ever smokers had a 27% reduced SPM risk (trend p = .028). Although HPV-seronegative patients had SPMs in traditional locations, 70% of SPMs among HPV-seropositive patients were outside typical tobacco-related sites.

CONCLUSION

HPV serologic status and smoking may stratify patients with index oropharyngeal cancers in terms of risk and location of SPMs.

Biological and prognostic associations of miR-205 and let-7b in breast cancer revealed by in situ hybridization analysis of micro-RNA expression in arrays of archival tumour tissue

Micro-RNAs (miRNAs) are frequently dysregulated in a range of human malignancies, many have been shown to act either as tumour supressors or oncogenes and several have been implicated in breast cancer. However, breast cancer is a diverse disease and little is known about the relationships between miRNA expression, clinical outcome and tumour subtype. We used locked nucleic acid probe in situ hybridization (LNA-ISH) to visualize, in tissue micro-arrays (TMAs) of 2919 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) archival breast tumours, the expression of two key miRNAs that are frequently lost in a range of solid malignancies, let-7b and miR-205. These miRNAs were also quantified by quantitative reverse transcription PCR in cores of FFPE tissue from 40 of these cases, demonstrating that LNA-ISH is semi-quantitative. The tumours in the TMAs were assigned to subtypes based on their immunohistochemical (IHC) staining with ER, PR, HER2, CK5/6 and EGFR. let-7b expression was shown to be associated with luminal tumours and to have an independent significant positive prognostic value in this group. miR-205 is associated with tumours of ductal morphology and is of significant positive prognostic value within these tumours. We propose that the expression of miR-205 may contribute to ductal tumour morphology.

Aurora kinase A outperforms Ki67 as a prognostic marker in ER-positive breast cancer

Background:

Proliferation has emerged as a major prognostic factor in luminal breast cancer. The immunohistochemical (IHC) proliferation marker Ki67 has been most extensively investigated but has not gained widespread clinical acceptance.

Methods:

We have conducted a head-to-head comparison of a panel of proliferation markers, including Ki67. Our aim was to establish the marker of the greatest prognostic utility. Tumour samples from 3093 women with breast cancer were constructed as tissue microarrays. We used IHC to detect expression of mini-chromosome maintenance protein 2, Ki67, aurora kinase A (AURKA), polo-like kinase 1, geminin and phospho-histone H3. We used a Cox proportional-hazards model to investigate the association with 10-year breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS). Missing values were resolved using multiple imputation.

Results:

The prognostic significance of proliferation was limited to oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. Aurora kinase A emerged as the marker of the greatest prognostic significance in a multivariate model adjusted for the standard clinical and molecular covariates (hazard ratio 1.3; 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.5; P=0.005), outperforming all other markers including Ki67.

Conclusion:

Aurora kinase A outperforms other proliferation markers as an independent predictor of BCSS in ER-positive breast cancer. It has the potential for use in routine clinical practice.

Variation in advanced stage at diagnosis of lung and female breast cancer in an English region 2006-2009

Background:

Understanding variation in stage at diagnosis can inform interventions to improve the timeliness of diagnosis for patients with different cancers and characteristics.

Methods:

We analysed population-based data on 17 836 and 13 286 East of England residents diagnosed with (female) breast and lung cancer during 2006–2009, with stage information on 16 460 (92%) and 10 435 (79%) patients, respectively. Odds ratios (ORs) of advanced stage at diagnosis adjusted for patient and tumour characteristics were derived using logistic regression.

Results:

We present adjusted ORs of diagnosis in stages III/IV compared with diagnosis in stages I/II. For breast cancer, the frequency of advanced stage at diagnosis increased stepwise among old women (ORs: 1.21, 1.46, 1.68 and 1.78 for women aged 70–74, 75–79, 80–84 and ⩾85, respectively, compared with those aged 65–69 , P<0.001). In contrast, for lung cancer advanced stage at diagnosis was less frequent in old patients (ORs: 0.82, 0.74, 0.73 and 0.66, P<0.001). Advanced stage at diagnosis was more frequent in more deprived women with breast cancer (OR: 1.23 for most compared with least deprived, P=0.002), and in men with lung cancer (OR: 1.14, P=0.011). The observed patterns were robust to sensitivity analyses approaches for handling missing stage data under different assumptions.

Conclusion:

Interventions to help improve the timeliness of diagnosis of different cancers should be targeted at specific age groups.

Gradually implemented new biomarkers for prognostication of breast cancer: complete case analysis may introduce bias

OBJECTIVE

Many recent studies investigated the prognostic value of new biomarkers in breast cancer using data from cancer registries. Some of these studies were conducted using only patients for whom biomarker status was available (or tested). Using human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) as an example, we determined whether testing for a recently introduced biomarker was associated with the outcome of women with breast cancer.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We included 910 women with newly diagnosed breast cancer in a tertiary academic hospital in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, between 2005 and 2007. Individual 2-year absolute mortality risk was estimated using Cox regression analysis. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between the absolute mortality risk and assessment of HER2 status.

RESULTS

There was a significant inverted U-shaped association between predicted mortality risk and HER2 status determination. Compared with patients with the lowest predicted mortality risk (quintile 1), patients with highest predicted mortality risk (last quintile) were significantly less likely to be tested for HER2 status, whereas those with intermediate predicted mortality risk (quintile 3) were more likely to be tested.

CONCLUSION

Breast cancer prognostication using only patients with available biomarker status may lead to invalid results.

Risk factors for progression from severe maternal morbidity to death: a national cohort study

Background

Women continue to die unnecessarily during or after pregnancy in the developed world. The aim of this analysis was to compare women with severe maternal morbidities who survived with those who died, to quantify the risk associated with identified factors to inform policy and practice to improve survival.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a national cohort analysis using data from two sources obtained between 2003 and 2009: the Centre for Maternal and Child Enquiries maternal deaths database and the United Kingdom Obstetric Surveillance System database. Included women had eclampsia, antenatal pulmonary embolism, amniotic fluid embolism, acute fatty liver of pregnancy or antenatal stroke. These conditions were chosen as major causes of maternal mortality and morbidity about which data were available through both sources, and include 42% of direct maternal deaths over the study period. Rates, risk ratios, crude and adjusted odd ratios were used to investigate risks factors for maternal death. Multiple imputation and sensitivity analysis were used to handle missing data.

We identified 476 women who survived and 100 women who died. Maternal death was associated with older age (35+ years aOR 2.36, 95%CI 1.22–4.56), black ethnicity (aOR 2.38, 95%CI 1.15–4.92), and unemployed, routine or manual occupation (aOR 2.19, 95%CI 1.03–4.68). An association was also observed with obesity (BMI≥30 kg/m² aOR 2.73, 95%CI 1.15–6.46).

Conclusions

Ongoing high quality national surveillance programmes have an important place in addressing challenges in maternal health and care. There is a place for action to reverse the rising trends in maternal age at childbirth, and to reduce the burden of obesity in pregnancy, as well as ongoing recognition of the impact of older maternal age on the risks of pregnancy. Development and evaluation of services to mitigate the risk of dying associated with black ethnicity and lower socioeconomic status is also essential.

Cancer stem cell markers in breast cancer: pathological, clinical and prognostic significance

INTRODUCTION

The cancer stem cell (CSC) hypothesis states that tumours consist of a cellular hierarchy with CSCs at the apex driving tumour recurrence and metastasis. Hence, CSCs are potentially of profound clinical importance. We set out to establish the clinical relevance of breast CSC markers by profiling a large cohort of breast tumours in tissue microarrays (TMAs) using immunohistochemistry (IHC).

METHODS

We included 4, 125 patients enrolled in the SEARCH population-based study with tumours represented in TMAs and classified into molecular subtype according to a validated IHC-based five-marker scheme. IHC was used to detect CD44/CD24, ALDH1A1, aldehyde dehydrogenase family 1 member A3 (ALDH1A3) and integrin alpha-6 (ITGA6). A 'Total CSC' score representing expression of all four CSC markers was also investigated. Association with breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) at 10 years was assessed using a Cox proportional-hazards model. This study was complied with REMARK criteria.

RESULTS

In ER negative cases, multivariate analysis showed that ITGA6 was an independent prognostic factor with a time-dependent effect restricted to the first two years of follow-up (hazard ratio (HR) for 0 to 2 years follow-up, 2.4; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.2 to 4.8; P = 0.009). The composite 'Total CSC' score carried independent prognostic significance in ER negative cases for the first four years of follow-up (HR for 0 to 4 years follow-up, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1 to 1.6; P = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

Breast CSC markers do not identify identical subpopulations in primary tumours. Both ITGA6 and a composite Total CSC score show independent prognostic significance in ER negative disease. The use of multiple markers to identify tumours enriched for CSCs has the greatest prognostic value. In the absence of more specific markers, we propose that the effective translation of the CSC hypothesis into patient benefit will necessitate the use of a panel of markers to robustly identify tumours enriched for CSCs.