MR-PheWAS: hypothesis prioritization among potential causal effects of body mass index on many outcomes, using Mendelian randomization

Mendelian randomization: causal inference leveraging genetic data

Mendelian randomization (MR) leverages genetic information to examine the causal relationship between phenotypes allowing for the presence of unmeasured confounders. MR has been widely applied to unresolved questions in epidemiology, making use of summary statistics from genome-wide association studies on an increasing number of human traits. However, an understanding of essential concepts is necessary for the appropriate application and interpretation of MR. This review aims to provide a non-technical overview of MR and demonstrate its relevance to psychiatric research. We begin with the origins of MR and the reasons for its recent expansion, followed by an overview of its statistical methodology. We then describe the limitations of MR, and how these are being addressed by recent methodological advances. We showcase the practical use of MR in psychiatry through three illustrative examples - the connection between cannabis use and psychosis, the link between intelligence and schizophrenia, and the search for modifiable risk factors for depression. The review concludes with a discussion of the prospects of MR, focusing on the integration of multi-omics data and its extension to delineating complex causal networks.

Mammographic density mediates the protective effect of early-life body size on breast cancer risk

The unexplained protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk may be mediated via mammographic density (MD). Here, we investigate a complex relationship between adiposity in childhood and adulthood, puberty onset, MD phenotypes (dense area (DA), non-dense area (NDA), percent density (PD)), and their effects on breast cancer. We use Mendelian randomization (MR) and multivariable MR to estimate the total and direct effects of adiposity and age at menarche on MD phenotypes. Childhood adiposity has a decreasing effect on DA, while adulthood adiposity increases NDA. Later menarche increases DA/PD, but when accounting for childhood adiposity, this effect is attenuated. Next, we examine the effect of MD on breast cancer risk. DA/PD have a risk-increasing effect on breast cancer across all subtypes. The MD SNPs estimates are heterogeneous, and additional analyses suggest that different mechanisms may be linking MD and breast cancer. Finally, we evaluate the role of MD in the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer. Mediation MR analysis shows that 56% (95% CIs [32%-79%]) of this effect is mediated via DA. Our finding suggests that higher childhood adiposity decreases mammographic DA, subsequently reducing breast cancer risk. Understanding this mechanism is important for identifying potential intervention targets.

Phenome-wide Mendelian randomisation analysis of 378,142 cases reveals risk factors for eight common cancers

For many cancers there are only a few well-established risk factors. Here, we use summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in a Mendelian randomisation (MR) phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to identify potentially causal relationships for over 3,000 traits. Our outcome datasets comprise 378,142 cases across breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, endometrial, oesophageal, renal, and ovarian cancers, as well as 485,715 controls. We complement this analysis by systematically mining the literature space for supporting evidence. In addition to providing supporting evidence for well-established risk factors (smoking, alcohol, obesity, lack of physical activity), we also find sex steroid hormones, plasma lipids, and telomere length as determinants of cancer risk. A number of the molecular factors we identify may prove to be potential biomarkers. Our analysis, which highlights aetiological similarities and differences in common cancers, should aid public health prevention strategies to reduce cancer burden. We provide a R/Shiny app to visualise findings.

Guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations: update for summer 2023

This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into ten sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust statistical methods and one on other approaches), extensions and additional analyses, data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 24 months.

Association between breast cancer and thyroid cancer risk: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study

Background

Breast and thyroid cancer are increasingly prevalent, but it remains unclear whether the observed associations are due to heightened medical surveillance or intrinsic etiological factors. Observational studies are vulnerable to residual confounding, reverse causality, and bias, which can compromise causal inference. In this study, we employed a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to establish a causal link between breast cancer and heightened thyroid cancer risk.

Methods

We obtained the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) conducted by the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). The FinnGen consortium's latest and largest accessible GWAS thyroid cancer data at the summary level. We performed four MR analyses, including the inverse-variance-weighted (IVW), weighted median, MR-Egger regression, and weighted mode, to evaluate the potential causal connection between genetically predicted breast cancer and higher risk for thyroid cancer. Sensitivity analysis, heterogeneity and pleiotropy tests were used to ensure the reliability of our findings.

Results

Our study revealed causal relationship between genetically predicted breast cancer and thyroid cancer (IVW method, odds ratio (OR) = 1.135, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.006 to 1.279, P = 0.038). However, there was no causal association between genetically predicted triple-negative breast cancer and thyroid cancer (OR = 0.817, 95% CI: 0.610 to 1.095, P = 0.177). There was no directional pleiotropy or horizontal pleiotropy in the present study.

Conclusion

This two-sample MR study supports a causal link between ER-positive breast cancer and heightened the risk of thyroid cancer. Our analysis did not reveal a direct correlation between triple-negative breast cancer and thyroid cancer.

Risk factors for eight common cancers revealed from a phenome-wide Mendelian randomisation analysis of 378,142 cases and 485,715 controls

For many cancers there are few well-established risk factors. Summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used in a Mendelian randomisation (MR) phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to identify causal relationships. We performed a MR-PheWAS of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, endometrial, oesophageal, renal, and ovarian cancers, comprising 378,142 cases and 485,715 controls. To derive a more comprehensive insight into disease aetiology we systematically mined the literature space for supporting evidence. We evaluated causal relationships for over 3,000 potential risk factors. In addition to identifying well-established risk factors (smoking, alcohol, obesity, lack of physical activity), we provide evidence for specific factors, including dietary intake, sex steroid hormones, plasma lipids and telomere length as determinants of cancer risk. We also implicate molecular factors including plasma levels of IL-18, LAG-3, IGF-1, CT-1, and PRDX1 as risk factors. Our analyses highlight the importance of risk factors that are common to many cancer types but also reveal aetiological differences. A number of the molecular factors we identify have the potential to be biomarkers. Our findings should aid public health prevention strategies to reduce cancer burden. We provide a R/Shiny app (https://mrcancer.shinyapps.io/mrcan/) to visualise findings.

Identifying the potential causal role of insomnia symptoms on 11,409 health-related outcomes: a phenome-wide Mendelian randomisation analysis in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Insomnia symptoms are widespread in the population and might have effects on many chronic conditions and their risk factors but previous research has focused on select hypothesised associations/effects rather than taking a systematic hypothesis-free approach across many health outcomes.

METHODS

We performed a Mendelian randomisation (MR) phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) in 336,975 unrelated white-British UK Biobank participants. Self-reported insomnia symptoms were instrumented by a genetic risk score (GRS) created from 129 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A total of 11,409 outcomes from UK Biobank were extracted and processed by an automated pipeline (PHESANT) for the MR-PheWAS. Potential causal effects (those passing a Bonferroni-corrected significance threshold) were followed up with two-sample MR in MR-Base, where possible.

RESULTS

Four hundred thirty-seven potential causal effects of insomnia symptoms were observed for a diverse range of outcomes, including anxiety, depression, pain, body composition, respiratory, musculoskeletal and cardiovascular traits. We were able to undertake two-sample MR for 71 of these 437 and found evidence of causal effects (with directionally concordant effect estimates across main and sensitivity analyses) for 30 of these. These included novel findings (by which we mean not extensively explored in conventional observational studies and not previously explored using MR based on a systematic search) of an adverse effect on risk of spondylosis (OR [95%CI] = 1.55 [1.33, 1.81]) and bronchitis (OR [95%CI] = 1.12 [1.03, 1.22]), among others.

CONCLUSIONS

Insomnia symptoms potentially cause a wide range of adverse health-related outcomes and behaviours. This has implications for developing interventions to prevent and treat a number of diseases in order to reduce multimorbidity and associated polypharmacy.

Risk factors for eight common cancers revealed from a phenome-wide Mendelian randomisation analysis of 378,142 cases and 485,715 controls

For many cancers there are few well-established risk factors. Summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used in a Mendelian randomisation (MR) phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to identify causal relationships. We performed a MR-PheWAS of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, endometrial, oesophageal, renal, and ovarian cancers, comprising 378,142 cases and 485,715 controls. To derive a more comprehensive insight into disease aetiology we systematically mined the literature space for supporting evidence. We evaluated causal relationships for over 3,000 potential risk factors. In addition to identifying well-established risk factors (smoking, alcohol, obesity, lack of physical activity), we provide evidence for specific factors, including dietary intake, sex steroid hormones, plasma lipids and telomere length as determinants of cancer risk. We also implicate molecular factors including plasma levels of IL-18, LAG-3, IGF-1, CT-1, and PRDX1 as risk factors. Our analyses highlight the importance of risk factors that are common to many cancer types but also reveal aetiological differences. A number of the molecular factors we identify have the potential to be biomarkers. Our findings should aid public health prevention strategies to reduce cancer burden. We provide a R/Shiny app (https://mrcancer.shinyapps.io/mrcan/) to visualise findings.

Using human genetics to improve safety assessment of therapeutics

Human genetics research has discovered thousands of proteins associated with complex and rare diseases. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and studies of Mendelian disease have resulted in an increased understanding of the role of gene function and regulation in human conditions. Although the application of human genetics has been explored primarily as a method to identify potential drug targets and support their relevance to disease in humans, there is increasing interest in using genetic data to identify potential safety liabilities of modulating a given target. Human genetic variants can be used as a model to anticipate the effect of lifelong modulation of therapeutic targets and identify the potential risk for on-target adverse events. This approach is particularly useful for non-clinical safety evaluation of novel therapeutics that lack pharmacologically relevant animal models and can contribute to the intrinsic safety profile of a drug target. This Review illustrates applications of human genetics to safety studies during drug discovery and development, including assessing the potential for on- and off-target associated adverse events, carcinogenicity risk assessment, and guiding translational safety study designs and monitoring strategies. A summary of available human genetic resources and recommended best practices is provided. The challenges and future perspectives of translating human genetic information to identify risks for potential drug effects in preclinical and clinical development are discussed.

Quantifying the phenome-wide disease burden of obesity using electronic health records and genomics

OBJECTIVE

High BMI is associated with many comorbidities and mortality. This study aimed to elucidate the overall clinical risk of obesity using a genome- and phenome-wide approach.

METHODS

This study performed a phenome-wide association study of BMI using a clinical cohort of 736,726 adults. This was followed by genetic association studies using two separate cohorts: one consisting of 65,174 adults in the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network and another with 405,432 participants in the UK Biobank.

RESULTS

Class 3 obesity was associated with 433 phenotypes, representing 59.3% of all billing codes in individuals with severe obesity. A genome-wide polygenic risk score for BMI, accounting for 7.5% of variance in BMI, was associated with 296 clinical diseases, including strong associations with type 2 diabetes, sleep apnea, hypertension, and chronic liver disease. In all three cohorts, 199 phenotypes were associated with class 3 obesity and polygenic risk for obesity, including novel associations such as increased risk of renal failure, venous insufficiency, and gastroesophageal reflux.

CONCLUSIONS

This combined genomic and phenomic systematic approach demonstrated that obesity has a strong genetic predisposition and is associated with a considerable burden of disease across all disease classes.

Associations of Genetically Predicted Vitamin B12 Status across the Phenome

Variation in vitamin B₁₂ levels has been associated with a range of diseases across the life-course, the causal nature of which remains elusive. We aimed to interrogate genetically predicted vitamin B₁₂ status in relation to a plethora of clinical outcomes available in the UK Biobank. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data obtained from a Danish and Icelandic cohort of 45,576 individuals were used to identify 8 genetic variants associated with vitamin B₁₂ levels, serving as genetic instruments for vitamin B₁₂ status in subsequent analyses. We conducted a Mendelian randomisation (MR)-phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of vitamin B₁₂ status with 945 distinct phenotypes in 439,738 individuals from the UK Biobank using these 8 genetic instruments to proxy alterations in vitamin B₁₂ status. We used external GWAS summary statistics for replication of significant findings. Correction for multiple testing was taken into consideration using a 5% false discovery rate (FDR) threshold. MR analysis identified an association between higher genetically predicted vitamin B₁₂ status and lower risk of vitamin B deficiency (including all B vitamin deficiencies), serving as a positive control outcome. We further identified associations between higher genetically predicted vitamin B₁₂ status and a reduced risk of megaloblastic anaemia (OR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.20-0.50) and pernicious anaemia (0.29, 0.19-0.45), which was supported in replication analyses. Our study highlights that higher genetically predicted vitamin B₁₂ status is potentially protective of risk of vitamin B₁₂ deficiency associated with pernicious anaemia diagnosis, and reduces risk of megaloblastic anaemia. The potential use of genetically predicted vitamin B₁₂ status in disease diagnosis, progression and management remains to be investigated.

An Overview of Methods and Exemplars of the Use of Mendelian Randomisation in Nutritional Research

Objectives: It is crucial to elucidate the causal relevance of nutritional exposures (such as dietary patterns, food intake, macronutrients intake, circulating micronutrients), or biomarkers in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in order to find effective strategies for NCD prevention. Classical observational studies have found evidence of associations between nutritional exposures and NCD development, but such studies are prone to confounding and other biases. This has direct relevance for translation research, as using unreliable evidence can lead to the failure of trials of nutritional interventions. Facilitated by the availability of large-scale genetic data, Mendelian randomization studies are increasingly used to ascertain the causal relevance of nutritional exposures and biomarkers for many NCDs. Methods: A narrative overview was conducted in order to demonstrate and describe the utility of Mendelian randomization studies, for individuals with little prior knowledge engaged in nutritional epidemiological research. Results: We provide an overview, rationale and basic description of the methods, as well as strengths and limitations of Mendelian randomization studies. We give selected examples from the contemporary nutritional literature where Mendelian randomization has provided useful evidence on the potential causal relevance of nutritional exposures. Conclusions: The selected exemplars demonstrate the importance of well-conducted Mendelian randomization studies as a robust tool to prioritize nutritional exposures for further investigation.

Phenotypic Causal Inference Using Genome-Wide Association Study Data: Mendelian Randomization and Beyond

statistics for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are increasingly available for downstream analyses. Meanwhile, the popularity of causal inference methods has grown as we look to gather robust evidence for novel medical and public health interventions. This has led to the development of methods that use GWAS summary statistics for causal inference. Here, we describe these methods in order of their escalating complexity, from genetic associations to extensions of Mendelian randomization that consider thousands of phenotypes simultaneously. We also cover the assumptions and limitations of these approaches before considering the challenges faced by researchers performing causal inference using GWAS data. GWAS summary statistics constitute an important data source for causal inference research that offers a counterpoint to nongenetic methods when triangulating evidence. Continued efforts to address the challenges in using GWAS data for causal inference will allow the full impact of these approaches to be realized.

Exploring the clinical and genetic associations of adult weight trajectories using electronic health records in a racially diverse biobank: a phenome-wide and polygenic risk study

BACKGROUND

Weight trajectories might reflect individual health status. In this study, we aimed to examine the clinical and genetic associations of adult weight trajectories using electronic health records (EHRs) in the BioMe Biobank.

METHODS

We constructed four weight trajectories based on a-priori definitions of weight changes (5% or 10%) using annual weight in EHRs (stable weight, weight gain, weight loss, and weight cycle); the final weight dataset included 21 487 participants with 162 783 annual weight measures. To confirm accurate assignment of weight trajectories, we manually reviewed weight trajectory plots for 100 random individuals. We then did a hypothesis-free phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to identify diseases associated with each weight trajectory. Next, we estimated the single-nucleotide polymorphism-based heritability (hSNP2) of weight trajectories using GCTA-GREML, and we did a hypothesis-driven analysis of anorexia nervosa and depression polygenic risk scores (PRS) on these weight trajectories, given both diseases are associated with weight changes. We extended our analyses to the UK Biobank to replicate findings from a patient population to a generally healthy population.

FINDINGS

We found high concordance between manually assigned weight trajectories and those assigned by the algorithm (accuracy ≥98%). Stable weight was consistently associated with lower disease risks among those passing Bonferroni-corrected p value in our PheWAS (p≤4·4 × 10-5). Additionally, we identified an association between depression and weight cycle (odds ratio [OR] 1·42, 95% CI 1·31-1·55, p≤7·7 × 10-16). The adult weight trajectories were heritable (using 5% weight change as the cutoff: hSNP2 of 2·1%, 95% CI 0·9-3·3, for stable weight; 4·1%, 1·4-6·8, for weight gain; 5·5%, 2·8-8·2, for weight loss; and 4·7%, 2·3-7·1%, for weight cycle). Anorexia nervosa PRS was positively associated with weight loss trajectory among individuals without eating disorder diagnoses (OR1SD 1·16, 95% CI 1·07-1·26, per 1 SD higher PRS, p=0·011), and the association was not attenuated by obesity PRS. No association was found between depression PRS and weight trajectories after permutation tests. All main findings were replicated in the UK Biobank (p<0·05).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest the importance of considering weight from a longitudinal aspect for its association with health and highlight a crucial role of weight management during disease development and progression.

FUNDING

Klarman Family Foundation, US National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH).

A multi-population phenome-wide association study of genetically-predicted height in the Million Veteran Program

BACKGROUND

Height has been associated with many clinical traits but whether such associations are causal versus secondary to confounding remains unclear in many cases. To systematically examine this question, we performed a Mendelian Randomization-Phenome-wide association study (MR-PheWAS) using clinical and genetic data from a national healthcare system biobank.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Analyses were performed using data from the US Veterans Affairs (VA) Million Veteran Program in non-Hispanic White (EA, n = 222,300) and non-Hispanic Black (AA, n = 58,151) adults in the US. We estimated height genetic risk based on 3290 height-associated variants from a recent European-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis. We compared associations of measured and genetically-predicted height with phenome-wide traits derived from the VA electronic health record, adjusting for age, sex, and genetic principal components. We found 345 clinical traits associated with measured height in EA and an additional 17 in AA. Of these, 127 were associated with genetically-predicted height at phenome-wide significance in EA and 2 in AA. These associations were largely independent from body mass index. We confirmed several previously described MR associations between height and cardiovascular disease traits such as hypertension, hyperlipidemia, coronary heart disease (CHD), and atrial fibrillation, and further uncovered MR associations with venous circulatory disorders and peripheral neuropathy in the presence and absence of diabetes. As a number of traits associated with genetically-predicted height frequently co-occur with CHD, we evaluated effect modification by CHD status of genetically-predicted height associations with risk factors for and complications of CHD. We found modification of effects of MR associations by CHD status for atrial fibrillation/flutter but not for hypertension, hyperlipidemia, or venous circulatory disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that height may be an unrecognized but biologically plausible risk factor for several common conditions in adults. However, more studies are needed to reliably exclude horizontal pleiotropy as a driving force behind at least some of the MR associations observed in this study.

Applying Mendelian randomization to appraise causality in relationships between nutrition and cancer

Dietary factors are assumed to play an important role in cancer risk, apparent in consensus recommendations for cancer prevention that promote nutritional changes. However, the evidence in this field has been generated predominantly through observational studies, which may result in biased effect estimates because of confounding, exposure misclassification, and reverse causality. With major geographical differences and rapid changes in cancer incidence over time, it is crucial to establish which of the observational associations reflect causality and to identify novel risk factors as these may be modified to prevent the onset of cancer and reduce its progression. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses the special properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference regarding potentially modifiable exposures and disease risk. MR can be implemented through instrumental variable (IV) analysis and, when robustly performed, is generally less prone to confounding, reverse causation and measurement error than conventional observational methods and has different sources of bias (discussed in detail below). It is increasingly used to facilitate causal inference in epidemiology and provides an opportunity to explore the effects of nutritional exposures on cancer incidence and progression in a cost-effective and timely manner. Here, we introduce the concept of MR and discuss its current application in understanding the impact of nutritional factors (e.g., any measure of diet and nutritional intake, circulating biomarkers, patterns, preference or behaviour) on cancer aetiology and, thus, opportunities for MR to contribute to the development of nutritional recommendations and policies for cancer prevention. We provide applied examples of MR studies examining the role of nutritional factors in cancer to illustrate how this method can be used to help prioritise or deprioritise the evaluation of specific nutritional factors as intervention targets in randomised controlled trials. We describe possible biases when using MR, and methodological developments aimed at investigating and potentially overcoming these biases when present. Lastly, we consider the use of MR in identifying causally relevant nutritional risk factors for various cancers in different regions across the world, given notable geographical differences in some cancers. We also discuss how MR results could be translated into further research and policy. We conclude that findings from MR studies, which corroborate those from other well-conducted studies with different and orthogonal biases, are poised to substantially improve our understanding of nutritional influences on cancer. For such corroboration, there is a requirement for an interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to investigate risk factors for cancer incidence and progression.

First genome-wide association study of 99 body measures derived from 3-dimensional body scans

Body height, body mass index, hip and waist circumference are important risk factors or outcome variables in clinical and epidemiological research with complex underlying genetics. However, these classical anthropometric traits represent only a very limited view on the human body and other traits with potentially higher functional specificity are not yet studied to a larger extent. Participants of LIFE-Adult were assessed by three-dimensional body scanner VITUS XXL determining 99 high-quality anthropometric traits in parallel. Genotyping was performed by Axiom Genome-Wide CEU 1 Array Plate microarray technology and imputation was done using 1000 Genomes phase 3 reference panel. Combined phenotype and genetic information are available for a total of 7,562 participants. Largest heritabilities were estimated for height traits (maximum heritability with h² = 44% for neck height) and 61 traits achieved values larger than 20%. By genome-wide analyses, we identified 16 loci associated with at least one of the 99 traits. Ten of these loci were not described for association with classical anthropometric traits so far. The strongest novel association was observed for 7p14.3 (rs11979006, P = 2.12 × 10⁻⁹) for the trait Back Width with ZNRF2 as the most plausible candidate gene. Loci established for association with classical anthropometric traits were subjected to anthropometric phenome-wide association analysis. From the reported 709 loci, 211 are co-associated with body scanner traits (enrichment: OR = 1.96, P = 1.08 × 10⁻⁶¹). We conclude that genetics of 3D laser-based anthropometry is promising to identify novel loci and to improve the functional understanding of established ones.

Comorbidities in osteoarthritis (ComOA): a combined cross-sectional, case-control and cohort study using large electronic health records in four European countries

INTRODUCTION

Osteoarthritis (OA) is one of the leading chronic conditions in the older population. People with OA are more likely to have one or more other chronic conditions than those without. However, the temporal associations, clusters of the comorbidities, role of analgesics and the causality and variation between populations are yet to be investigated. This paper describes the protocol of a multinational study in four European countries (UK, Netherlands, Sweden and Spain) exploring comorbidities in people with OA.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This multinational study will investigate (1) the temporal associations of 61 identified comorbidities with OA, (2) the clusters and trajectories of comorbidities in people with OA, (3) the role of analgesics on incidence of comorbidities in people with OA, (4) the potential biomarkers and causality between OA and the comorbidities, and (5) variations between countries.A combined case-control and cohort study will be conducted to find the temporal association of OA with the comorbidities using the national or regional health databases. Latent class analysis will be performed to identify the clusters at baseline and joint latent class analysis will be used to examine trajectories during the follow-up. A cohort study will be undertaken to evaluate the role of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), opioids and paracetamol on the incidence of comorbidities. Mendelian randomisation will be performed to investigate the potential biomarkers for causality between OA and the comorbidities using the UK Biobank and the Rotterdam Study databases. Finally, a meta-analyses will be used to examine the variations and pool the results from different countries.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Research ethics was obtained according to each database requirement. Results will be disseminated through the FOREUM website, scientific meetings, publications and in partnership with patient organisations.

Mendelian Randomization: Concepts and Scope

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a method of studying the causal effects of modifiable exposures (i.e., potential risk factors) on health, social, and economic outcomes using genetic variants associated with the specific exposures of interest. MR provides a more robust understanding of the influence of these exposures on outcomes because germline genetic variants are randomly inherited from parents to offspring and, as a result, should not be related to potential confounding factors that influence exposure-outcome associations. The genetic variant can therefore be used as a tool to link the proposed risk factor and outcome, and to estimate this effect with less confounding and bias than conventional epidemiological approaches. We describe the scope of MR, highlighting the range of applications being made possible as genetic data sets and resources become larger and more freely available. We outline the MR approach in detail, covering concepts, assumptions, and estimation methods. We cover some common misconceptions, provide strategies for overcoming violation of assumptions, and discuss future prospects for extending the clinical applicability, methodological innovations, robustness, and generalizability of MR findings.

Target Discovery for Drug Development Using Mendelian Randomization

Making drug development more efficient by identifying promising drug targets can contribute to resource savings. Identifying promising drug targets using human genetic approaches can remove barriers related to translation. In addition, genetic information can be used to identify potentially causal relationships between a drug target and disease. Mendelian randomization (MR) is a class of approaches used to identify causal associations between pairs of genetically predicted traits using data from human genetic studies. MR can be used to prioritize candidate drug targets by predicting disease outcomes and adverse events that could result from the manipulation of a drug target. The theory behind MR is reviewed, including a discussion of MR assumptions, different MR analytical methods, tests for violations of assumptions, and MR methods that can be robust to some violations of MR assumptions. A protocol to perform two-sample MR (2SMR) with summary genome-wide association study (GWAS) results is described. An example of 2SMR examining the causal relationship between low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and coronary artery disease (CAD) is provided as an illustration of the protocol.

Impact of Liability to Periodontitis on Glycemic Control and Type II Diabetes Risk: A Mendelian Randomization Study

While the association of periodontitis with Type II diabetes (T2DM) is well-established, the causal relationship remains uncertain. We examined the causal association of periodontitis with glycemic traits (HbA1c, fasting glucose, and fasting insulin) and T2DM using Mendelian randomization (MR) taking advantage of large genome-wide association studies of European and East Asian adults, i.e., the UK Biobank (n ≈ 350,000) (HbA1c), trans-ancestral MAGIC (HbA1c, fasting glucose, and insulin), and DIAMANTE (74,124 cases/824,006 controls), and AGEN for T2DM in Europeans and East Asians, respectively. Periodontitis was instrumented using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), strongly and independently predicting liability to periodontitis in each ancestry group. SNP-specific Wald estimates were combined using inverse variance weighting. Sensitivity analyses were performed using the weighted median and MR-Egger with meta-analysis of MR estimates for Europeans and East Asians. Genetically instrumented liability to periodontitis was not associated with glycemic traits or T2DM in either ancestry or when ancestry specific estimates were meta-analyzed. Our findings do not support a causal association of liability to periodontitis with glycemic traits or T2DM. However, further research is required confirming these findings among other racial/ethnic groups, especially groups who carry a heavy burden of both periodontitis and T2DM.

Effects of adiposity on the human plasma proteome: observational and Mendelian randomisation estimates

BACKGROUND

Variation in adiposity is associated with cardiometabolic disease outcomes, but mechanisms leading from this exposure to disease are unclear. This study aimed to estimate effects of body mass index (BMI) on an extensive set of circulating proteins.

METHODS

We used SomaLogic proteomic data from up to 2737 healthy participants from the INTERVAL study. Associations between self-reported BMI and 3622 unique plasma proteins were explored using linear regression. These were complemented by Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses using a genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 654 BMI-associated polymorphisms from a recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) of adult BMI. A disease enrichment analysis was performed using DAVID Bioinformatics 6.8 for proteins which were altered by BMI.

RESULTS

Observationally, BMI was associated with 1576 proteins (P < 1.4 × 10-5), with particularly strong evidence for a positive association with leptin and fatty acid-binding protein-4 (FABP4), and a negative association with sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG). Observational estimates were likely confounded, but the GRS for BMI did not associate with measured confounders. MR analyses provided evidence for a causal relationship between BMI and eight proteins including leptin (0.63 standard deviation (SD) per SD BMI, 95% CI 0.48-0.79, P = 1.6 × 10-15), FABP4 (0.64 SD per SD BMI, 95% CI 0.46-0.83, P = 6.7 × 10-12) and SHBG (-0.45 SD per SD BMI, 95% CI -0.65 to -0.25, P = 1.4 × 10-5). There was agreement in the magnitude of observational and MR estimates (R2 = 0.33) and evidence that proteins most strongly altered by BMI were enriched for genes involved in cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence for a broad impact of adiposity on the human proteome. Proteins strongly altered by BMI include those involved in regulating appetite, sex hormones and inflammation; such proteins are also enriched for cardiovascular disease-related genes. Altogether, results help focus attention onto new proteomic signatures of obesity-related disease.

Impact of sex hormone-binding globulin on the human phenome

Background: Sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) is a circulating glycoprotein and a regulator of sex hormone levels, which has been shown to influence various traits and diseases. The molecular nature of SHBG makes it a feasible target for preventative or therapeutic interventions. A systematic study of its effects across the human phenome may uncover novel associations. Methods: We used a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study (MR-pheWAS) approach to systematically appraise the potential functions of SHBG while reducing potential biases such as confounding and reverse causation common to the literature. We searched for potential causal effects of SHBG in UK Biobank (N = 334 977) and followed-up our top findings using two-sample MR analyses to evaluate whether estimates may be biased due to horizontal pleiotropy. Results: Results of the MR-pheWAS across over 21 000 outcome phenotypes identified 12 phenotypes associated with genetically elevated SHBG after Bonferroni correction for multiple testing. Follow-up analysis using two-sample MR indicated the associations of increased natural log SHBG with higher impedance of the arms and whole body, lower pulse rate, lower bone density, higher odds of hip replacement, lower odds of high cholesterol or cholesterol medication use and higher odds of gallbladder removal. Conclusions: Our systematic MR-pheWAS of SHBG, which was comprehensive to the range of phenotypes available in UK Biobank, suggested that higher circulating SHBG affects the body impedance, bone density and cholesterol levels, among others. These phenotypes should be prioritized in future studies aiming to investigate the biological effects of SHBG or develop targets for therapeutic intervention.

Using Phecodes for Research with the Electronic Health Record: From PheWAS to PheRS

Electronic health records (EHRs) are a rich source of data for researchers, but extracting meaningful information out of this highly complex data source is challenging. Phecodes represent one strategy for defining phenotypes for research using EHR data. They are a high-throughput phenotyping tool based on ICD (International Classification of Diseases) codes that can be used to rapidly define the case/control status of thousands of clinically meaningful diseases and conditions. Phecodes were originally developed to conduct phenome-wide association studies to scan for phenotypic associations with common genetic variants. Since then, phecodes have been used to support a wide range of EHR-based phenotyping methods, including the phenotype risk score. This review aims to comprehensively describe the development, validation, and applications of phecodes and suggest some future directions for phecodes and high-throughput phenotyping.

Search for multiple myeloma risk factors using Mendelian randomization

The etiology of multiple myeloma (MM) is poorly understood. Summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of multiple phenotypes can be exploited in a Mendelian randomization (MR) phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to search for factors influencing MM risk. We performed an MR-PheWAS analyzing 249 phenotypes, proxied by 10 225 genetic variants, and summary genetic data from a GWAS of 7717 MM cases and 29 304 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) per 1 standard deviation increase in each phenotype were estimated under an inverse variance weighted random effects model. A Bonferroni-corrected threshold of P = 2 × 10-4 was considered significant, whereas P < .05 was considered suggestive of an association. Although no significant associations with MM risk were observed among the 249 phenotypes, 28 phenotypes showed evidence suggestive of association, including increased levels of serum vitamin B6 and blood carnitine (P = 1.1 × 10-3) with greater MM risk and ω-3 fatty acids (P = 5.4 × 10-4) with reduced MM risk. A suggestive association between increased telomere length and reduced MM risk was also noted; however, this association was primarily driven by the previously identified risk variant rs10936599 at 3q26 (TERC). Although not statistically significant, increased body mass index was associated with increased risk (OR, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.22), supporting findings from a previous meta-analysis of prospective observational studies. Our study did not provide evidence supporting any modifiable factors examined as having a major influence on MM risk; however, it provides insight into factors for which the evidence has previously been mixed.

Causal Effects of Body Mass Index on Airflow Obstruction and Forced Mid-Expiratory Flow: A Mendelian Randomization Study Taking Interactions and Age-Specific Instruments Into Consideration Toward a Life Course Perspective

Obesity has complex links to respiratory health. Mendelian randomization (MR) enables assessment of causality of body mass index (BMI) effects on airflow obstruction and mid-expiratory flow. In the adult SAPALDIA cohort, recruiting 9,651 population-representative samples aged 18–60 years at baseline (female 51%), BMI and the ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁) to forced vital capacity (FVC) as well as forced mid-expiratory flow (FEF25–75%) were measured three times over 20 follow-up years. The causal effects of BMI in childhood and adulthood on FEV1/FVC and FEF25–75% were assessed in predictive (BMI averaged over 1st and 2nd, lung function (LF) averaged over 2nd and 3rd follow-up; N = 2,850) and long-term cross-sectional models (BMI and LF averaged over all follow-ups; N = 2,728) by Mendelian Randomization analyses with the use of weighted BMI allele score as an instrument variable and two-stage least squares (2SLS) method. Three different BMI allele scores were applied to specifically capture the part of BMI in adulthood that likely reflects tracking of genetically determined BMI in childhood. The main causal effects were derived from models containing BMI (instrumented by BMI genetic score), age, sex, height, and packyears smoked as covariates. BMI interactions were instrumented by the product of the instrument (BMI genetic score) and the relevant concomitant variable. Causal effects of BMI on FEV1/FVC and FEF25–75% were observed in both the predictive and long-term cross-sectional models. The causal BMI- LF effects were negative and attenuated with increasing age, and stronger if instrumented by gene scores associated with childhood BMI. This non-standard MR approach interrogating causal effects of multiplicative interaction suggests that the genetically rooted part of BMI patterns in childhood may be of particular relevance for the level of small airway function and airflow obstruction later in life. The methodological relevance of the results is first to point to the importance of a life course perspective in studies on the etiological role of BMI in respiratory health, and second to point out novel methodological aspects to be considered in future MR studies on the causal effects of obesity related phenotypes.

Separating the genetics of childhood and adult obesity: a validation study of genetic scores for body mass index in adolescence and adulthood in the HUNT Study

From a life-course perspective, genetic and environmental factors driving childhood obesity may have a lasting influence on health later in life. However, how obesity trajectories vary throughout the life-course remains unknown. Recently, Richardson et al. created powerful early life and adult gene scores for body mass index (BMI) in a comprehensive attempt to separate childhood and adult obesity. The childhood score was derived using questionnaire-based data administered to adults aged 40-69 regarding their relative body size at age 10, making it prone to recall and misclassification bias. We therefore attempted to validate the childhood and adult scores using measured BMI data in adolescence and adulthood among 66 963 individuals from the HUNT Study in Norway from 1963 to 2019. The predictive performance of the childhood score was better in adolescence and early adulthood, whereas the predictive performance of the adult score was better in adulthood. In the age group 12-15.9 years, the variance explained by the childhood polygenic risk score (PRS) was 6.7% versus 2.4% for the adult PRS. In the age group 24-29.9 years, the variance explained by the adult PRS was 3.9% versus 3.6% for the childhood PRS. Our findings support that genetic factors driving BMI differ at young age and in adulthood. Within the framework of multivariable Mendelian randomization, the validated childhood gene score can now be used to determine the consequence of childhood obesity on later disease.

Identifying drug targets for neurological and psychiatric disease via genetics and the brain transcriptome

Discovering drugs that efficiently treat brain diseases has been challenging. Genetic variants that modulate the expression of potential drug targets can be utilized to assess the efficacy of therapeutic interventions. We therefore employed Mendelian Randomization (MR) on gene expression measured in brain tissue to identify drug targets involved in neurological and psychiatric diseases. We conducted a two-sample MR using cis-acting brain-derived expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) from the Accelerating Medicines Partnership for Alzheimer’s Disease consortium (AMP-AD) and the CommonMind Consortium (CMC) meta-analysis study (n = 1,286) as genetic instruments to predict the effects of 7,137 genes on 12 neurological and psychiatric disorders. We conducted Bayesian colocalization analysis on the top MR findings (using P<6x10^-7 as evidence threshold, Bonferroni-corrected for 80,557 MR tests) to confirm sharing of the same causal variants between gene expression and trait in each genomic region. We then intersected the colocalized genes with known monogenic disease genes recorded in Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM) and with genes annotated as drug targets in the Open Targets platform to identify promising drug targets. 80 eQTLs showed MR evidence of a causal effect, from which we prioritised 47 genes based on colocalization with the trait. We causally linked the expression of 23 genes with schizophrenia and a single gene each with anorexia, bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder within the psychiatric diseases and 9 genes with Alzheimer’s disease, 6 genes with Parkinson’s disease, 4 genes with multiple sclerosis and two genes with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis within the neurological diseases we tested. From these we identified five genes (ACE, GPNMB, KCNQ5, RERE and SUOX) as attractive drug targets that may warrant follow-up in functional studies and clinical trials, demonstrating the value of this study design for discovering drug targets in neuropsychiatric diseases.

Genetic association studies have been successful in identifying many genetic variants associated with disease risk, but it has been far more challenging to determine the genes through which these act. This is important, because such genes may encode effective drug targets for these diseases. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) and colocalization, two methods which in combination exploit these genetic variants to estimate the causal effects of individual genes. We applied this approach to 12 neurological and psychiatric diseases using data from the AMP-AD and CMC brain expression quantitative locus dataset, which is large enough to provide robust evidence for the relationship between genetic variants and gene expression. We found a causal relationship between the change in expression of 47 genes and increased disease risk across the 12 diseases we tested. As drug targets with human genetic evidence are far more likely to be approved in clinical trials, these findings provide a valuable list of potential therapeutic targets, including the ACE, GPNMB, KCNQ5, RERE and SUOX genes.

Searching for causal relationships of glioma: a phenome-wide Mendelian randomisation study

BACKGROUND

The aetiology of glioma is poorly understood. Summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used in a Mendelian randomisation (MR) phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to search for glioma risk factors.

METHODS

We performed an MR-PheWAS analysing 316 phenotypes, proxied by 8387 genetic variants, and summary genetic data from a GWAS of 12,488 glioma cases and 18,169 controls. Causal effects were estimated under a random-effects inverse-variance-weighted (IVW-RE) model, with robust adjusted profile score (MR-RAPS), weighted median and mode-based estimates computed to assess the robustness of findings. Odds ratios per one standard deviation increase in each phenotype were calculated for all glioma, glioblastoma (GBM) and non-GBM tumours.

RESULTS

No significant associations (P < 1.58 × 10-4) were observed between phenotypes and glioma under the IVW-RE model. Suggestive associations (1.58 × 10-4 < P < 0.05) were observed between leukocyte telomere length (LTL) with all glioma (ORSD = 3.91, P = 9.24 × 10-3) and GBM (ORSD = 4.86, P = 3.23 × 10-2), but the association was primarily driven by the TERT variant rs2736100. Serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and plasma HbA1C showed suggestive associations with glioma (ORSD = 1.11, P = 1.39 × 10-2 and ORSD = 1.28, P = 1.73 × 10-2, respectively), both associations being reliant on single genetic variants.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides further insight into the aetiological basis of glioma for which published data have been mixed.

Causal associations of body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio with cardiometabolic traits among Chinese children: A Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) have been reported to be causally associated with cardiometabolic diseases in adults in European populations. However, this causality was less explored in East Asian populations and in children. Our study aimed to explore and compare the causal associations of general obesity (measured by BMI) and central obesity (measured by WHR) with cardiometabolic traits.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis in 2030 unrelated children from two independent case-control studies in Beijing, China. BMI-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and WHR-SNPs identified by previous genome-wide association studies were used as genetic instruments to examine the casual associations of BMI and WHR with cardiometabolic traits, including glycemic traits, blood lipids, and blood pressure. Each 1-SD increase in BMI and WHR were significantly associated with 0.111 mmol/L and 0.110 mmol/L increase in log-transformed fasting insulin (FINS), 0.049 and 0.060 increase in log-transformed HOMA-β, 0.112 and 0.108 increase in log-transformed HOMA-IR, 0.009 mmol/L and 0.015 mmol/L increase in log-transformed triglyceride, and 15.527 mmHg and 7.277 mmHg increase in systolic blood pressure, respectively (all P < 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curves showed that WHR had a stronger effect on FINS, HOMA-β, HOMA-IR, and triglyceride than BMI (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Using the MR method, we found that the genetic predisposition to higher BMI or WHR was associated with altered cardiometabolic traits in Chinese children. When compared with general obesity, central obesity might have stronger effects on glycemic traits and blood lipids among children.

Association between major depressive disorder and multiple disease outcomes: a phenome-wide Mendelian randomisation study in the UK Biobank

Depression affects all aspects of an individual's life but evidence relating to the causal effects on health is limited. We used information from 337,536 UK Biobank participants and performed hypothesis-free phenome-wide association analyses between major depressive disorder (MDD) genetic risk score (GRS) and 925 disease outcomes. GRS-disease outcome associations passing the multiple-testing corrected significance threshold (P < 1.9 × 10^-3) were followed by Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses to test for causality. MDD GRS was associated with 22 distinct diseases in the phenome-wide discovery stage, with the strongest signal observed for MDD diagnosis and related co-morbidities including anxiety and sleep disorders. In inverse-variance weighted MR analyses, MDD was associated with several inflammatory and haemorrhagic gastrointestinal diseases, including oesophagitis (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.18-1.48), non-infectious gastroenteritis (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.06-1.48), gastrointestinal haemorrhage (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.11-1.43) and intestinal E.coli infections (OR 3.24, 95% CI 1.74-6.02). Signals were also observed for symptoms/disorders of the urinary system (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.19-1.56), asthma (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.06-1.44), and painful respiration (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.14-1.44). MDD was associated with disorders of lipid metabolism (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.12-1.34) and ischaemic heart disease (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.15-1.47). Sensitivity analyses excluding pleiotropic variants provided consistent associations. Our study indicates a causal link between MDD and a broad range of diseases, suggesting a notable burden of co-morbidity. Early detection and management of MDD is important, and treatment strategies should be selected to also minimise the risk of related co-morbidities.

Guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations

This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into nine sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust statistical methods and one on other approaches), data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 18 months.

Mendelian randomisation for nutritional psychiatry

Nutritional psychiatry is a growing area of research, with several nutritional factors implicated in the cause of psychiatric ill-health. However, nutritional research is highly complex, with multiple potential factors involved, highly confounded exposures and small effect sizes for individual nutrients. This Personal View considers whether Mendelian randomisation provides a solution to these difficulties, by investigating causality in a low-risk and low-cost way. We reviewed studies using Mendelian randomisation in nutritional psychiatry, along with the potential opportunities and challenges of using this approach for investigating the causal effects of nutritional exposures. Several studies have identified nutritional exposures that are potentially causal by using Mendelian randomisation in psychiatry, offering opportunities for further mechanistic research, intervention development, and replication. The use of Mendelian randomisation as a foundation for intervention development facilitates the best use of resources in an emerging discipline in which opportunities are rich, but resources are often poor.

Mapping ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM Codes to Phecodes: Workflow Development and Initial Evaluation

BACKGROUND

The phecode system was built upon the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) for phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) using the electronic health record (EHR).

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this paper was to develop and perform an initial evaluation of maps from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) and the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) codes to phecodes.

METHODS

We mapped ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM codes to phecodes using a number of methods and resources, such as concept relationships and explicit mappings from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the Unified Medical Language System, Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics, Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine-Clinical Terms, and the National Library of Medicine. We assessed the coverage of the maps in two databases: Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC) using ICD-10-CM and the UK Biobank (UKBB) using ICD-10. We assessed the fidelity of the ICD-10-CM map in comparison to the gold-standard ICD-9-CM phecode map by investigating phenotype reproducibility and conducting a PheWAS.

RESULTS

We mapped >75% of ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM codes to phecodes. Of the unique codes observed in the UKBB (ICD-10) and VUMC (ICD-10-CM) cohorts, >90% were mapped to phecodes. We observed 70-75% reproducibility for chronic diseases and <10% for an acute disease for phenotypes sourced from the ICD-10-CM phecode map. Using the ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM maps, we conducted a PheWAS with a Lipoprotein(a) genetic variant, rs10455872, which replicated two known genotype-phenotype associations with similar effect sizes: coronary atherosclerosis (ICD-9-CM: P<.001; odds ratio (OR) 1.60 [95% CI 1.43-1.80] vs ICD-10-CM: P<.001; OR 1.60 [95% CI 1.43-1.80]) and chronic ischemic heart disease (ICD-9-CM: P<.001; OR 1.56 [95% CI 1.35-1.79] vs ICD-10-CM: P<.001; OR 1.47 [95% CI 1.22-1.77]).

CONCLUSIONS

This study introduces the beta versions of ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM to phecode maps that enable researchers to leverage accumulated ICD-10 and ICD-10-CM data for PheWAS in the EHR.

Guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations

This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into nine sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust methods and one on other approaches), data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 18 months.

MR-pheWAS with stratification and interaction: Searching for the causal effects of smoking heaviness identified an effect on facial aging

Mendelian randomization (MR) is an established approach to evaluate the effect of an exposure on an outcome. The gene-by-environment (GxE) study design can be used to determine whether the genetic instrument affects the outcome through pathways other than via the exposure of interest (horizontal pleiotropy). MR phenome-wide association studies (MR-pheWAS) search for the effects of an exposure, and can be conducted in UK Biobank using the PHESANT package. In this proof-of-principle study, we introduce the novel GxE MR-pheWAS approach, that combines MR-pheWAS with the use of GxE interactions. This method aims to identify the presence of effects of an exposure while simultaneously investigating horizontal pleiotropy. We systematically test for the presence of causal effects of smoking heaviness-stratifying on smoking status (ever versus never)-as an exemplar. If a genetic variant is associated with smoking heaviness (but not smoking initiation), and this variant affects an outcome (at least partially) via tobacco intake, we would expect the effect of the variant on the outcome to differ in ever versus never smokers. We used PHESANT to test for the presence of effects of smoking heaviness, instrumented by genetic variant rs16969968, among never and ever smokers respectively, in UK Biobank. We ranked results by the strength of interaction between ever and never smokers. We replicated previously established effects of smoking heaviness, including detrimental effects on lung function. Novel results included a detrimental effect of heavier smoking on facial aging. We have demonstrated how GxE MR-pheWAS can be used to identify potential effects of an exposure, while simultaneously assessing whether results may be biased by horizontal pleiotropy.

Investigating causal relations between sleep traits and risk of breast cancer in women: mendelian randomisation study

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether sleep traits have a causal effect on risk of breast cancer.

DESIGN

Mendelian randomisation study.

SETTING

UK Biobank prospective cohort study and Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) case-control genome-wide association study.

PARTICIPANTS

156 848 women in the multivariable regression and one sample mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis in UK Biobank (7784 with a breast cancer diagnosis) and 122 977 breast cancer cases and 105 974 controls from BCAC in the two sample MR analysis.

EXPOSURES

Self reported chronotype (morning or evening preference), insomnia symptoms, and sleep duration in multivariable regression, and genetic variants robustly associated with these sleep traits.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Breast cancer diagnosis.

RESULTS

In multivariable regression analysis using UK Biobank data on breast cancer incidence, morning preference was inversely associated with breast cancer (hazard ratio 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 0.98 per category increase), whereas there was little evidence for an association between sleep duration and insomnia symptoms. Using 341 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with chronotype, 91 SNPs associated with sleep duration, and 57 SNPs associated with insomnia symptoms, one sample MR analysis in UK Biobank provided some supportive evidence for a protective effect of morning preference on breast cancer risk (0.85, 0.70, 1.03 per category increase) but imprecise estimates for sleep duration and insomnia symptoms. Two sample MR using data from BCAC supported findings for a protective effect of morning preference (inverse variance weighted odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 0.93 per category increase) and adverse effect of increased sleep duration (1.19, 1.02 to 1.39 per hour increase) on breast cancer risk (both oestrogen receptor positive and oestrogen receptor negative), whereas evidence for insomnia symptoms was inconsistent. Results were largely robust to sensitivity analyses accounting for horizontal pleiotropy.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings showed consistent evidence for a protective effect of morning preference and suggestive evidence for an adverse effect of increased sleep duration on breast cancer risk.

Associations of genetically determined iron status across the phenome: A mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Iron is integral to many physiological processes, and variations in its levels, even within the normal range, can have implications for health. The objective of this study was to explore the broad clinical effects of varying iron status.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data obtained from 48,972 European individuals (55% female) across 19 cohorts in the Genetics of Iron Status Consortium were used to identify 3 genetic variants (rs1800562 and rs1799945 in the hemochromatosis gene [HFE] and rs855791 in the transmembrane protease serine 6 gene [TMPRSS6]) that associate with increased serum iron, ferritin, and transferrin saturation and decreased transferrin levels, thus serving as instruments for systemic iron status. Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of these instruments was performed on 424,439 European individuals (54% female) in the UK Biobank who were aged 40-69 years when recruited from 2006 to 2010, with their genetic data linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) from April, 1995 to March, 2016. Two-sample summary data mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to investigate the effect of varying iron status on outcomes across the human phenome. MR-PheWAS analysis for the 3 iron status genetic instruments was performed separately and then pooled by meta-analysis. Correction was made for testing of multiple correlated phenotypes using a 5% false discovery rate (FDR) threshold. Heterogeneity between MR estimates for different instruments was used to indicate possible bias due to effects of the genetic variants through pathways unrelated to iron status. There were 904 distinct phenotypes included in the MR-PheWAS analyses. After correcting for multiple testing, the 3 genetic instruments for systemic iron status demonstrated consistent evidence of a causal effect of higher iron status on decreasing risk of traits related to anemia (iron deficiency anemia: odds ratio [OR] scaled to a standard deviation [SD] increase in genetically determined serum iron levels 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.81, P = 4 × 10-8) and hypercholesterolemia (hypercholesterolemia: OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.83-0.93, P = 2 × 10-5) and increasing risk of traits related to infection of the skin and related structures (cellulitis and abscess of the leg: OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.10-1.42, P = 6 × 10-4). The main limitations of this study relate to possible bias from pleiotropic effects of the considered genetic variants and misclassification of diagnoses in the HES data. Furthermore, this work only investigated participants with European ancestry, and the findings may not be applicable to other ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings offer novel, to our knowledge, insight into previously unreported effects of iron status, highlighting a potential protective effect of higher iron status on hypercholesterolemia and a detrimental role on risk of skin and skin structure infections. Given the modifiable and variable nature of iron status, these findings warrant further investigation.

An atlas of polygenic risk score associations to highlight putative causal relationships across the human phenome

The age of large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has provided us with an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the genetic liability of complex disease using polygenic risk scores (PRS). In this study, we have analysed 162 PRS (p<5×10-05) derived from GWAS and 551 heritable traits from the UK Biobank study (N = 334,398). Findings can be investigated using a web application (http:‌//‌mrcieu.‌mrsoftware.org/‌PRS‌_atlas/), which we envisage will help uncover both known and novel mechanisms which contribute towards disease susceptibility. To demonstrate this, we have investigated the results from a phenome-wide evaluation of schizophrenia genetic liability. Amongst findings were inverse associations with measures of cognitive function which extensive follow-up analyses using Mendelian randomization (MR) provided evidence of a causal relationship. We have also investigated the effect of multiple risk factors on disease using mediation and multivariable MR frameworks. Our atlas provides a resource for future endeavours seeking to unravel the causal determinants of complex disease.

Searching for the causal effects of body mass index in over 300 000 participants in UK Biobank, using Mendelian randomization

Mendelian randomization (MR) has been used to estimate the causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on particular traits thought to be affected by BMI. However, BMI may also be a modifiable, causal risk factor for outcomes where there is no prior reason to suggest that a causal effect exists. We performed a MR phenome-wide association study (MR-pheWAS) to search for the causal effects of BMI in UK Biobank (n = 334 968), using the PHESANT open-source phenome scan tool. A subset of identified associations were followed up with a formal two-stage instrumental variable analysis in UK Biobank, to estimate the causal effect of BMI on these phenotypes. Of the 22 922 tests performed, our MR-pheWAS identified 587 associations below a stringent P value threshold corresponding to a 5% estimated false discovery rate. These included many previously identified causal effects, for instance, an adverse effect of higher BMI on risk of diabetes and hypertension. We also identified several novel effects, including protective effects of higher BMI on a set of psychosocial traits, identified initially in our preliminary MR-pheWAS in circa 115,000 UK Biobank participants and replicated in a different subset of circa 223,000 UK Biobank participants. Our comprehensive MR-pheWAS identified potential causal effects of BMI on a large and diverse set of phenotypes. This included both previously identified causal effects, and novel effects such as a protective effect of higher BMI on feelings of nervousness.

Causal Inference in Cancer Epidemiology: What Is the Role of Mendelian Randomization?

Observational epidemiologic studies are prone to confounding, measurement error, and reverse causation, undermining robust causal inference. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses genetic variants to proxy modifiable exposures to generate more reliable estimates of the causal effects of these exposures on diseases and their outcomes. MR has seen widespread adoption within cardio-metabolic epidemiology, but also holds much promise for identifying possible interventions for cancer prevention and treatment. However, some methodologic challenges in the implementation of MR are particularly pertinent when applying this method to cancer etiology and prognosis, including reverse causation arising from disease latency and selection bias in studies of cancer progression. These issues must be carefully considered to ensure appropriate design, analysis, and interpretation of such studies. In this review, we provide an overview of the key principles and assumptions of MR, focusing on applications of this method to the study of cancer etiology and prognosis. We summarize recent studies in the cancer literature that have adopted a MR framework to highlight strengths of this approach compared with conventional epidemiological studies. Finally, limitations of MR and recent methodologic developments to address them are discussed, along with the translational opportunities they present to inform public health and clinical interventions in cancer. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(9); 995-1010. ©2018 AACR.

Mendelian randomization: a novel approach for the prediction of adverse drug events and drug repurposing opportunities

Identification of unintended drug effects, specifically drug repurposing opportunities and adverse drug events, maximizes the benefit of a drug and protects the health of patients. However, current observational research methods are subject to several biases. These include confounding by indication, reverse causality and missing data. We propose that Mendelian randomization (MR) offers a novel approach for the prediction of unintended drug effects. In particular, we advocate the synthesis of evidence from this method and other approaches, in the spirit of triangulation, to improve causal inferences concerning drug effects. MR addresses some of the limitations associated with the existing methods in this field. Furthermore, it can be applied either before or after approval of the drug, and could therefore prevent the potentially harmful exposure of patients in clinical trials and beyond. The potential of MR as a pharmacovigilance and drug repurposing tool is yet to be realized, and could both help prevent adverse drug events and identify novel indications for existing drugs in the future.

PhenoSpD: an integrated toolkit for phenotypic correlation estimation and multiple testing correction using GWAS summary statistics

Background

Identifying phenotypic correlations between complex traits and diseases can provide useful etiological insights. Restricted access to much individual-level phenotype data makes it difficult to estimate large-scale phenotypic correlation across the human phenome. Two state-of-the-art methods, metaCCA and LD score regression, provide an alternative approach to estimate phenotypic correlation using only genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary results.

Results

Here, we present an integrated R toolkit, PhenoSpD, to use LD score regression to estimate phenotypic correlations using GWAS summary statistics and to utilize the estimated phenotypic correlations to inform correction of multiple testing for complex human traits using the spectral decomposition of matrices (SpD). The simulations suggest that it is possible to identify nonindependence of phenotypes using samples with partial overlap; as overlap decreases, the estimated phenotypic correlations will attenuate toward zero and multiple testing correction will be more stringent than in perfectly overlapping samples. Also, in contrast to LD score regression, metaCCA will provide approximate genetic correlations rather than phenotypic correlation, which limits its application for multiple testing correction. In a case study, PhenoSpD using UK Biobank GWAS results suggested 399.6 independent tests among 487 human traits, which is close to the 352.4 independent tests estimated using true phenotypic correlation. We further applied PhenoSpD to an estimated 5,618 pair-wise phenotypic correlations among 107 metabolites using GWAS summary statistics from Kettunen's publication and PhenoSpD suggested the equivalent of 33.5 independent tests for these metabolites.

Conclusions

PhenoSpD extends the use of summary-level results, providing a simple and conservative way to reduce dimensionality for complex human traits using GWAS summary statistics. This is particularly valuable in the age of large-scale biobank and consortia studies, where GWAS results are much more accessible than individual-level data.

Mendelian randomisation in type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease

Type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and hypertension are associated with anthropometric and biomarker traits, including waist-to-hip-ratio, body mass index and altered glucose and insulin levels. Clinical trials, for example of weight-loss interventions, show these factors are causal, but lifelong impact of subtle changes in body mass index and body fat distribution are less clear. The use of human genetics can quantify the causal effects of long-term exposure to subtle changes of modifiable risk factors. Mendelian randomisation (MR) uses human genetic variants associated with the risk factor to quantify the relationship between risk factor and disease outcome. The last two years have seen an increase in the number of MR studies investigating the relationship between anthropometric traits and metabolic diseases. This review provides an overview of these recent MR studies in relation to type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and hypertension. MR provides evidence for causal associations of waist-to-hip-ratio, body mass index and altered glucose levels with type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and hypertension.

The MR-Base platform supports systematic causal inference across the human phenome

Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used to infer causal relationships between phenotypes, using a strategy known as 2-sample Mendelian randomization (2SMR) and bypassing the need for individual-level data. However, 2SMR methods are evolving rapidly and GWAS results are often insufficiently curated, undermining efficient implementation of the approach. We therefore developed MR-Base (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.mrbase.org">http://www.mrbase.org</ext-link>): a platform that integrates a curated database of complete GWAS results (no restrictions according to statistical significance) with an application programming interface, web app and R packages that automate 2SMR. The software includes several sensitivity analyses for assessing the impact of horizontal pleiotropy and other violations of assumptions. The database currently comprises 11 billion single nucleotide polymorphism-trait associations from 1673 GWAS and is updated on a regular basis. Integrating data with software ensures more rigorous application of hypothesis-driven analyses and allows millions of potential causal relationships to be efficiently evaluated in phenome-wide association studies.

The MR-Base platform supports systematic causal inference across the human phenome

Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used to infer causal relationships between phenotypes, using a strategy known as 2-sample Mendelian randomization (2SMR) and bypassing the need for individual-level data. However, 2SMR methods are evolving rapidly and GWAS results are often insufficiently curated, undermining efficient implementation of the approach. We therefore developed MR-Base (http://www.mrbase.org): a platform that integrates a curated database of complete GWAS results (no restrictions according to statistical significance) with an application programming interface, web app and R packages that automate 2SMR. The software includes several sensitivity analyses for assessing the impact of horizontal pleiotropy and other violations of assumptions. The database currently comprises 11 billion single nucleotide polymorphism-trait associations from 1673 GWAS and is updated on a regular basis. Integrating data with software ensures more rigorous application of hypothesis-driven analyses and allows millions of potential causal relationships to be efficiently evaluated in phenome-wide association studies.