Association between cardiac biomarkers and the development of ESRD in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, anemia, and CKD

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and cardiorenal outcome in patients with anaemia in chronic kidney disease

AIMS

Blood levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) may be modified by low renal clearance and anaemia. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the blood NT-proBNP level on cardiovascular and renal outcomes in patients with these two manifestations.

METHODS

This post hoc analysis stemmed from the oBservational clinical Research In chronic kidney disease patients with renal anemia: renal proGnosis in patients with Hyporesponsive anemia To Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents, darbepoetiN alfa (BRIGHTEN) trial, a large prospective study involving patients with non-dialysis kidney disease experiencing anaemia. The Pearson correlation coefficient was employed to examine the association of baseline NT-proBNP level with renal function or anaemia. Longitudinal assessment of the association of baseline blood NT-proBNP levels with cardiovascular outcomes (cardiac death, acute coronary syndrome, hospitalization due to heart failure or fatal arrhythmia) and renal outcomes [the initiation of maintenance dialysis, kidney transplantation, a 50% decrease in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or an eGFR of ≤6 mL/min/1.73 m2] was conducted by using restricted cubic spline analysis and Cox proportional hazard model analysis.

RESULTS

In total, this study included 1484 patients [mean age, 70.2 ± 11.8 years; women, 40.6%; eGFR, 20.3 ± 9.6 mL/min/1.73 m2; haemoglobin (Hb) level, 9.8 ± 0.9 g/dL]. Baseline NT-proBNP levels were a median of 496.0 pg/mL [inter-quartile range: 235.0-1090.0 pg/mL]. A weak association existed between NT-proBNP levels, on a logarithmic scale, and eGFR (r = -0.131, P < 0.001) or Hb levels (r = -0.182, P < 0.001) at baseline. During 2.29 ± 0.89 years, 92 cardiovascular and 573 renal events were recorded. After adjusting for potential confounders such as eGFR and blood Hb level, a nonlinear relationship existed between blood NT-proBNP levels and cardiorenal outcomes. Patients with a baseline NT-proBNP level ≥1000 and 500-1000 pg/mL exhibited a greater risk for cardiovascular outcomes than did patients with an NT-proBNP level <250 pg/mL {hazard ratio [HR] = 8.10 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.80-23.40] and 3.35 [95% CI, 1.10-10.18], respectively}. These patients also exhibited a moderate risk for renal outcomes [HR = 1.77 (95% CI, 1.36-2.31) and 1.54 (95% CI, 1.19-2.00), respectively].

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP provides prognostic insights into cardiovascular and renal outcomes among patients with advanced chronic kidney disease experiencing anaemia.

NT-proBNP improves prediction of cardiorenal complications in type 2 diabetes: the Hong Kong Diabetes Biobank

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a natriuretic peptide that is strongly associated with congestive heart failure (CHF). The utility of NT-proBNP for prediction of cardiovascular events and renal endpoints, compared with clinical risk factors, has not been evaluated in detail. We hypothesise that NT-proBNP can improve risk stratification and prediction of cardiorenal events in type 2 diabetes, beyond that provided by clinical risk factors.

METHODS

NT-proBNP was measured in 1993 samples from the Hong Kong Diabetes Biobank, a multicentre prospective diabetes cohort and biobank. A cut-off of ≥125 pg/ml was used to define elevated NT-proBNP. Associations between elevated NT-proBNP and incident cardiovascular and renal endpoints were examined using Cox regression, adjusted for sex, age and duration of diabetes, as well as other covariates. Prognostic and incremental predictive values of NT-proBNP in diabetes cardiorenal complications, compared with those of the Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation risk equations for CHD, CHF and kidney failure, were evaluated using the concordance index (C index), net reclassification improvement index, integrated discrimination improvement index and relative integrated discrimination improvement index.

RESULTS

A total of 24.7% of participants had elevated NT-proBNP. Participants with elevated NT-proBNP at baseline had a more adverse cardiometabolic profile, with 2-4-fold higher frequency of complications at baseline. Adjusting for age at baseline, sex and duration of diabetes, elevated NT-proBNP was associated with incident atrial fibrillation (HR 4.64 [95% CI 2.44, 8.85]), CHD (HR 4.21 [2.46, 7.21]), CVD (HR 3.32 [2.20, 5.01]) and CHF (HR 4.18 [2.18, 8.03]; all p<0.001). All these associations remained significant after further adjustment for additional covariates. Elevated NT-proBNP had good discriminative ability for various cardiorenal endpoints, with C index of 0.83 (95% CI 0.76, 0.90) for CHD, 0.88 (0.81, 0.94) for atrial fibrillation, 0.89 (0.83, 0.95) for CHF, 0.81 (0.77, 0.84) for 40% drop in eGFR and 0.88 (0.84, 0.92) for kidney failure. Models incorporating NT-proBNP had improved prediction compared with established clinical risk models. Sensitivity analyses including alternative cut-off of NT-proBNP, as well as use of other risk engines of CHD, yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

NT-proBNP demonstrated a promising ability to serve as a prognostic marker for a variety of cardiorenal complications in type 2 diabetes. Considering NT-proBNP in clinical assessments could potentially help identify high-risk individuals who may benefit from more intensive therapies.

Thyroid Dysfunction in Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease: A Single-Centered Experience From Pakistan

Introduction The global prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is increasing due to diabetes and hypertension, with a substantial number of patients progressing to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring maintenance dialysis. Thyroid dysfunction, particularly hypothyroidism, is common in CKD and ESRD patients but is often underdiagnosed due to symptom overlap with uremia. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of thyroid dysfunction in hemodialysis patients at the Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation (SIUT), Karachi. Methods A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted, enrolling 131 patients on maintenance hemodialysis for at least three months. Participants' demographic and clinical data were collected, and blood samples were taken for thyroid function testing using an Access hypersensitive thyroid-stimulating hormone (hTSH) immunoassay system. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS version 22.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY), with a significance threshold of p < 0.05. Results The total population included in the study was 131. Out of them, 74 (56.5%) were males. The study population had a mean age of 56.4 years. Hypertension and diabetes were the most common comorbidities noticed in 73 (55.7%) and 14 (10.7%) patients, respectively. Hypothyroidism was observed in 27 (20.6%) patients, with 18 (66.7%) of them having overt hypothyroidism. Hyperthyroidism was observed in four (3.1%) patients, all subclinical. Significant risk factors for hypothyroidism included female gender, longer duration on hemodialysis, decreased total leukocyte and platelet counts, and increased serum urea and creatinine levels. Conclusion The study underscores the significant burden of thyroid dysfunction in ESRD patients on hemodialysis, emphasizing the need for regular screening and management to mitigate associated cardiovascular risks and improve patient outcomes. Future studies should explore the long-term benefits of routine thyroid screening and the impact of different dialysis modalities on thyroid function.

Representation of multimorbidity and frailty in the development and validation of kidney failure prognostic prediction models: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Prognostic models that identify individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) at greatest risk of developing kidney failure help clinicians to make decisions and deliver precision medicine. It is recognised that people with CKD usually have multiple long-term health conditions (multimorbidity) and often experience frailty. We undertook a systematic review to evaluate the representation and consideration of multimorbidity and frailty within CKD cohorts used to develop and/or validate prognostic models assessing the risk of kidney failure.

METHODS

We identified studies that described derivation, validation or update of kidney failure prognostic models in MEDLINE, CINAHL Plus and the Cochrane Library-CENTRAL. The primary outcome was representation of multimorbidity or frailty. The secondary outcome was predictive accuracy of identified models in relation to presence of multimorbidity or frailty.

RESULTS

Ninety-seven studies reporting 121 different kidney failure prognostic models were identified. Two studies reported prevalence of multimorbidity and a single study reported prevalence of frailty. The rates of specific comorbidities were reported in a greater proportion of studies: 67.0% reported baseline data on diabetes, 54.6% reported hypertension and 39.2% reported cardiovascular disease. No studies included frailty in model development, and only one study considered multimorbidity as a predictor variable. No studies assessed model performance in populations in relation to multimorbidity. A single study assessed associations between frailty and the risks of kidney failure and death.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a paucity of kidney failure risk prediction models that consider the impact of multimorbidity and/or frailty, resulting in a lack of clear evidence-based practice for multimorbid or frail individuals. These knowledge gaps should be explored to help clinicians know whether these models can be used for CKD patients who experience multimorbidity and/or frailty.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

This review has been registered on PROSPERO (CRD42022347295).

N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, eGFR, and progression of kidney disease in chronic kidney disease patients without heart failure

Background

Cardiorenal syndrome highlights the bidirectional relationship between kidney and heart dysfunction. N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), which is the gold standard biomarker in heart failure (HF), may be an important biomarker for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. However, NT-proBNP is negatively related with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). In this study, we investigated the association of NT-proBNP, eGFR, and progression of kidney disease in CKD patients without HF.

Methods

This multicentric retrospective cohort study recruited 23 860 CKD patients without HF, who had at least one NT-proBNP record from China Renal Data System database. Linear regression model evaluated the relationship between eGFR and NT-proBNP. Cox regression analysis assessed the association between NT-proBNP and CKD progression. Sensitivity analysis examined the robustness of the main findings.

Results

This study involved 23 860 CKD patients without HF, distributed across different CKD stages: 10 526 in stages G1-2, 4665 in G3a, 3702 in G3b, 2704 in G4, and 2263 in G5. NT-proBNP was negatively correlated with eGFR, particularly in stages 4-5 CKD. A 15-unit decrease in eGFR was associated with increases in log (NT-proBNP) levels by 1.04-fold, 1.27-fold, 1.29-fold, 1.80-fold, and 3.50-fold for stages 1-2, 3a, 3b, 4, and 5, respectively. After excluding patients who developed CKD progression within 1 year, the Cox regression analysis revealed that the relationship between NT-proBNP and CKD progression was not significant in stages 4 and 5. However, for stages 1-3, each standard deviation increase in log (NT-proBNP) was associated with a 26%, 36%, and 28% higher risk of CKD progression, with P interaction ≤.001. The hazard ratios were 1.26 (95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.18 to 1.35), 1.36 (95% CI, 1.22 to 1.51), and 1.28 (95% CI, 1.14 to 1.43) for stages 1-2, stage 3a, and stage 3b, respectively.

Conclusions

Despite its strong inverse association with eGFR, NT-proBNP was positively associated with the risk of progression of kidney disease in CKD patients with stages 1-3 without HF. Future studies should investigate the effectiveness of NT-proBNP as a predictive biomarker for the progression of kidney disease across diverse racial groups and healthcare settings.

Changes in Natriuretic Peptide Levels and Subsequent Kidney Function Decline in SPRINT

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Novel approaches to the assessment of kidney disease risk during hypertension treatment are needed because of the uncertainty of how intensive blood pressure (BP) lowering impacts kidney outcomes. We determined whether longitudinal N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements during hypertension treatment are associated with kidney function decline.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

8,005 SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) participants with NT-proBNP measurements at baseline and 1 year.

EXPOSURE

1-year change in NT-proBNP categorized as a ≥25% decrease, ≥25% increase, or <25% change (stable).

OUTCOME

Annualized change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and ≥30% decrease in eGFR.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Linear mixed-effect and logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association of changes in NT-proBNP with subsequent annualized change in eGFR and ≥30% decrease in eGFR, respectively. Analyses were stratified by baseline chronic kidney disease (CKD) status.

RESULTS

Compared with stable 1-year NT-proBNP levels, a ≥25% decrease in NT-proBNP was associated with a slower decrease in eGFR in participants with CKD (adjusted difference, 1.09%/y; 95% CI, 0.35-1.83) and without CKD (adjusted difference, 0.51%/y; 95% CI, 0.21-0.81; P = 0.4 for interaction). Meanwhile, a ≥25% increase in NT-proBNP in participants with CKD was associated with a faster decrease in eGFR (adjusted difference, -1.04%/y; 95% CI, -1.72 to -0.36) and risk of a ≥30% decrease in eGFR (adjusted odds ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.06-1.96); associations were stronger in participants with CKD than in participants without CKD (P = 0.01 and P < 0.001 for interaction, respectively). Relationships were similar irrespective of the randomized BP arm in SPRINT (P > 0.2 for interactions).

LIMITATIONS

Persons with diabetes and proteinuria >1 g/d were excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in NT-proBNP during BP treatment are independently associated with subsequent kidney function decline, particularly in people with CKD. Future studies should assess whether routine NT-proBNP measurements may be useful in monitoring kidney risk during hypertension treatment.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a biomarker in the blood that reflects mechanical stress on the heart. Measuring NT-proBNP may be helpful in assessing the risk of long-term losses of kidney function. In this study, we investigated the association of changes in NT-proBNP with subsequent kidney function among individuals with and without chronic kidney disease. We found that increases in NT-proBNP are associated with a faster rate of decline of kidney function, independent of baseline kidney measures. The associations were more pronounced in individuals with chronic kidney disease. Our results advance the notion of considering NT-proBNP as a dynamic tool for assessing kidney disease risk.

Predictive value of systemic immune-inflammation index combined with N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide for contrast-induced acute kidney injury in patients with STEMI after primary PCI

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relationship between the incidence of contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) after emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and preoperative systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), and to further analyze the predictive value of the combination of SII and NT-proBNP for CI-AKI.

METHODS

The clinical data of 1543 patients with STEMI who underwent emergency PCI in our hospital from February 2019 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients were divided into training cohort (n = 1085) and validation cohort (n = 287) according to chronological order. The training cohort was divided into CI-AKI (n = 95) and non-CI-AKI (n = 990) groups according to the 2018 European Society of Urogenital Radiology definition of CI-AKI. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors for CI-AKI. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) was used to explore the relationship between SII, NT-proBNP, and the risk of CI-AKI. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of SII, NT-proBNP, and their combination in CI-AKI.

RESULTS

The incidence of CI-AKI was 8.8% (95/1085). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that SII, NT-proBNP, age, baseline creatinine, fasting blood glucose, and diuretics were independent risk factors for CI-AKI. RCS analysis showed that SII > 1084.97 × 109/L and NT-proBNP > 296.12 pg/mL were positively associated with the incidence of CI-AKI. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of SII and NT-proBNP combined detection in predicting CI-AKI was 0.726 (95% CI 0.698-0.752, P < 0.001), the sensitivity was 60.0%, and the specificity was 77.7%, which were superior to the detection of SII or NT-proBNP alone.

CONCLUSION

Preprocedural high SII and NT-proBNP are independent risk factors for CI-AKI after emergency PCI in patients with STEMI. The combined detection of SII and NT-proBNP can more accurately predict CI-AKI risk than the single detection.

The association of plasma NT-proBNP level and progression of diabetic kidney disease

AIMS

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is the most common cause of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). The identification of risk factors involved in the progression of DKD to ESKD is expected to result in early detection and appropriate intervention and improve prognosis. This study aimed to explore whether plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was associated with kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and biopsy-proven DKD.

METHODS

Patients with biopsy-proven DKD who were followed up at West China Hospital over 12 months were enrolled. The kidney outcome was defined as progression to ESKD. The cutoff value of plasma NT-proBNP concentration was calculated by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The influence of NT-proBNP levels on kidney outcome in patients with DKD was assessed using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 30 (24.5%) patients reached ESKD during a median follow-up of 24.1 months. The baseline serum NT-proBNP level had a significant correlation with baseline proteinuria, kidney function, glomerular lesions, interstitial fibrosis tubular atrophy (IFTA), and arteriolar hyalinosis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that increased NT-proBNP level was significantly associated with a higher risk of progression to ESKD (HR 6.43; 95% CI (1.65-25.10, p = 0.007), and each 1 SD increase in LG (NT-proBNP) was also associated with a higher risk (HR 2.43; 95% CI 1.94-5.29, p = 0.047) of an adverse kidney outcome after adjusting for confounding factors.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher level of plasma NT-proBNP predicts kidney prognosis in patients with biopsy-proven DKD. This warrants further investigation into the potential mechanisms.

The potential of cardiac biomarkers, NT-ProBNP and troponin T, in predicting the progression of nephropathy in diabetic patients: A meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

AIMS

A meta-analysis was done to investigate the association of two cardiac biomarkers of N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and circulating troponin T (TnT) with the progression of diabetic nephropathy (DN).

METHODS

A thorough search of the PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases was done until June 2022. The outcome (progression of DN) was described as either of the followings: a) eGFR decline, b) albuminuria, c) end-stage renal disease, or d) mortality. A pooled analysis of eligible studies was performed using random-effect models to compensate for the differences in measurement standards between the studies. We further carried out subgroup analyses to examine our results' robustness and find the source of heterogeneity. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of individual studies on the pooled result and the funnel plot and Egger's test were used to assess publication bias.

RESULTS

For NT-proBNP, 8741 participants from 14 prospective cohorts, and for TnT, 7292 participants from 9 prospective cohorts were included in the meta-analysis. Higher NT-proBNP levels in diabetic patients were associated with a higher probability of DN progression (relative risk [RR]: 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.44 to 1.92). Likewise, elevated levels of TnT were associated with an increased likelihood of DN (RR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.34 to 1.83). The predictive power of both biomarkers for DN remained significant when the subgroup analyses were performed. The risk estimates were sensitive to none of the studies. The funnel plot and Egger's tests indicated publication bias for both biomarkers. Hence, trim and fill analysis was performed to compensate for this putative bias and the results remained significant both for NT-proBNP (RR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.79) and TnT (RR: 1.35, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.60).

CONCLUSIONS

The increased blood levels of TnT and NT-proBNP can be considered as predictors of DN progression in diabetic individuals. PROSPERO registration code: CRD42022350491.

Risk Assessment of Kidney Disease Progression and Efficacy of SGLT2 Inhibition in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To develop a risk assessment tool to identify patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) at higher risk for kidney disease progression and who might benefit more from sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 41,204 patients with T2D from four Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) clinical trials were divided into derivation (70%) and validation cohorts (30%). Candidate predictors of kidney disease progression (composite of sustained ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], end-stage kidney disease, or kidney death) were selected with multivariable Cox regression. Efficacy of dapagliflozin was assessed by risk categories (low: <0.5%; intermediate: 0.5 to <2%; high: ≥2%) in Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events (DECLARE)-TIMI 58.

RESULTS

There were 695 events over a median follow-up of 2.4 years. The final model comprised eight independent predictors of kidney disease progression: atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, systolic blood pressure, T2D duration, glycated hemoglobin, eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and hemoglobin. The c-indices were 0.798 (95% CI, 0.774-0.821) and 0.798 (95% CI, 0.765-0.831) in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The calibration plot slope (deciles of predicted vs. observed risk) was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93-1.04) in the validation cohort. Whereas relative risk reductions with dapagliflozin did not differ across risk categories, there was greater absolute risk reduction in patients with higher baseline risk, with a 3.5% absolute risk reduction in kidney disease progression at 4 years in the highest risk group (≥1%/year). Results were similar with the 2022 Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium risk prediction model.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk models for kidney disease progression can be applied in patients with T2D to stratify risk and identify those who experience a greater magnitude of benefit from SGLT2 inhibition.

A 4-Variable Model to Predict Cardio-Kidney Events and Mortality in Chronic Kidney Disease: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study

INTRODUCTION

Current prognostic models for chronic kidney disease (CKD) are complex and were designed to predict a single outcome. We aimed to develop and validate a simple and parsimonious prognostic model to predict cardio-kidney events and mortality.

METHODS

Patients from the CRIC Study (n = 3,718) were randomly divided into derivation (n = 2,478) and validation (n = 1,240) cohorts. Twenty-nine candidate variables were preselected. Multivariable Cox regression models were developed using stepwise selection for various cardio-kidney endpoints, namely, (i) the primary composite outcome of 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) from baseline, end-stage renal disease, or cardiovascular (CV) mortality; (ii) hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) or CV mortality; (iii) 3-point major CV endpoints (3P-MACE); (iv) all-cause death.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9 years, the primary outcome occurred in 977 patients of the derivation cohort and 501 patients of the validation cohort. Log-transformed N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), log-transformed high-sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), log-transformed albuminuria, and eGFR were the dominant predictors. The primary outcome risk score discriminated well (c-statistic = 0.83) with a proportion of events of 11.4% in the lowest tertile of risk and 91.5% in the highest tertile at 10 years. The risk model presented good discrimination for HHF or CV mortality, 3P-MACE, and all-cause death (c-statistics = 0.80, 0.75, and 0.75, respectively). The 4-variable risk model achieved similar c-statistics for all tested outcomes in the validation cohort. The discrimination of the 4-variable risk model was mostly superior to that of published models.

CONCLUSION

The combination of NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT, albuminuria, and eGFR in a single 4-variable model provides a unique individual prognostic assessment of multiple cardio-kidney outcomes in CKD.

Loop diuretics improve conditions of dialysis inception in advanced CKD: an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Diuretics can reduce fluid overload but their effects on conditions of dialysis start remain elusive. We aimed to determine whether loop diuretics exposure in the year before inception can delay the need for dialysis, affect the conditions of dialysis start, and cause early mortality three months after initiation in pre-dialysis patients.

METHODS

All adult patients starting dialysis from 2009 to 2015 in the REIN registry were included. Three subgroups were defined according to diuretics exposure: "continuous", "stopped", or "no diuretics" over the year before inception and compared for pre-dialysis hospitalization rates, and 3-month mortality after dialysis.

RESULTS

Among 59,302 patients, we found fewer emergency initiations of dialysis in the continuous diuretics group than in the stopped diuretics and no diuretics groups: 9492 (27.5%) vs 1905 (32.3%) and 5226 (35.0%), respectively; p < 0.0001. In the continuous diuretics group, there were fewer starts on central venous catheters than in the stopped diuretics and no diuretics groups: 16,677 (49.4%) vs. 3246 (56.0%) vs. 8,639 (58.4%); p < 0.0001. Patients with continuous diuretic exposure had a lower hospitalization rate than the stopped diuretics group in the year prior to dialysis, except for heart failure. The unadjusted 3-month hazard ratio of mortality after dialysis inception was significantly higher in the "no diuretics" or "stopped diuretics" groups compared with "continuous diuretics", but the excess of risk was blunted after adjustment for emergency start and pre-dialysis visits to a nephrologist.

CONCLUSION

Continuous loop diuretics exposure in the year before dialysis was associated with better conditions of dialysis inception, and possibly lower mortality rates in the three months after inception.

Interventions for fatigue in people with kidney failure requiring dialysis

BACKGROUND

Fatigue is a common and debilitating symptom in people receiving dialysis that is associated with an increased risk of death, cardiovascular disease and depression. Fatigue can also impair quality of life (QoL) and the ability to participate in daily activities. Fatigue has been established by patients, caregivers and health professionals as a core outcome for haemodialysis (HD).

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate the effects of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions on fatigue in people with kidney failure receiving dialysis, including HD and peritoneal dialysis (PD), including any setting and frequency of the dialysis treatment.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Kidney and Transplant Register of Studies up to 18 October 2022 through contact with the Information Specialist using search terms relevant to this review. Studies in the Register are identified through searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE, conference proceedings, the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) Search Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies evaluating pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions affecting levels of fatigue or fatigue-related outcomes in people receiving dialysis were included. Studies were eligible if fatigue or fatigue-related outcomes were reported as a primary or secondary outcome. Any mode, frequency, prescription, and duration of therapy were considered.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Three authors independently extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. Treatment estimates were summarised using random effects meta-analysis and expressed as a risk ratio (RR) or mean difference (MD), with a corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) or standardised MD (SMD) if different scales were used. Confidence in the evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach.

MAIN RESULTS

Ninety-four studies involving 8191 randomised participants were eligible. Pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions were compared either to placebo or control, or to another pharmacological or non-pharmacological intervention. In the majority of domains, risks of bias in the included studies were unclear or high. In low certainty evidence, when compared to control, exercise may improve fatigue (4 studies, 217 participants (Iowa Fatigue Scale, Modified Fatigue Impact Scale, Piper Fatigue Scale (PFS), or Haemodialysis-Related Fatigue scale score): SMD -1.18, 95% CI -2.04 to -0.31; I2 = 87%) in HD. In low certainty evidence, when compared to placebo or standard care, aromatherapy may improve fatigue (7 studies, 542 participants (Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS), Rhoten Fatigue Scale (RFS), PFS or Brief Fatigue Inventory score): SMD -1.23, 95% CI -1.96 to -0.50; I2 = 93%) in HD. In low certainty evidence, when compared to no intervention, massage may improve fatigue (7 studies, 657 participants (FSS, RFS, PFS or Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) score): SMD -1.06, 95% CI -1.47, -0.65; I2 = 81%) and increase energy (2 studies, 152 participants (VAS score): MD 4.87, 95% CI 1.69 to 8.06, I2 = 59%) in HD. In low certainty evidence, when compared to placebo or control, acupressure may reduce fatigue (6 studies, 459 participants (PFS score, revised PFS, or Fatigue Index): SMD -0.64, 95% CI -1.03 to -0.25; I2 = 75%) in HD. A wide range of heterogenous interventions and fatigue-related outcomes were reported for exercise, aromatherapy, massage and acupressure, preventing our capability to pool and analyse the data. Due to the paucity of studies, the effects of pharmacological and other non-pharmacological interventions on fatigue or fatigue-related outcomes, including non-physiological neutral amino acid, relaxation with or without music therapy, meditation, exercise with nandrolone, nutritional supplementation, cognitive-behavioural therapy, ESAs, frequent HD sections, home blood pressure monitoring, blood flow rate reduction, serotonin reuptake inhibitor, beta-blockers, anabolic steroids, glucose-enriched dialysate, or light therapy, were very uncertain. The effects of pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments on death, cardiovascular diseases, vascular access, QoL, depression, anxiety, hypertension or diabetes were sparse. No studies assessed tiredness, exhaustion or asthenia. Adverse events were rarely and inconsistently reported.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Exercise, aromatherapy, massage and acupressure may improve fatigue compared to placebo, standard care or no intervention. Pharmacological and other non-pharmacological interventions had uncertain effects on fatigue or fatigue-related outcomes in people receiving dialysis. Future adequately powered, high-quality studies are likely to change the estimated effects of interventions for fatigue and fatigue-related outcomes in people receiving dialysis.

Precision Medicine and/or Biomarker Based Therapy in T2DM: Ready for Prime Time?

Approximately 30-40% of people with type 2 diabetes mellitus develop chronic kidney disease. This is characterised by elevated blood pressure, declining kidney function and enhanced cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Increased albuminuria and decreasing estimated glomerular function has to be evaluated regularly to diagsnose kidney disease. New biomarkers may facilitate early diagnosis and provide infomation on undlying pathology thereby supporting early precision intervention for the optimal benefit. A number of biomarkers have been suggested but are not yet implemented in clinical practice. iI the future such bimarkers may pave the way for personalized treatment.

Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents for anaemia in adults with chronic kidney disease: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) are commonly used to treat anaemia in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, their use has been associated with cardiovascular events. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2014.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the efficacy and safety of ESAs (epoetin alfa, epoetin beta, darbepoetin alfa, methoxy polyethylene glycol-epoetin beta, and biosimilar ESAs against each other, placebo, or no treatment) to treat anaemia in adults with CKD.

SEARCH METHODS

In this update, we searched the Cochrane Kidney and Transplant Register of Studies up to 29 April 2022 through contact with the Information Specialist using search terms relevant to this review. Studies in the Register are identified through searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE, conference proceedings, the International Clinical Trials Register (ICTRP) Search Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that included a comparison of an ESA (epoetin alfa, epoetin beta, darbepoetin alfa, methoxy polyethylene glycol-epoetin beta, a biosimilar epoetin or a biosimilar darbepoetin alfa) with another ESA, placebo or no treatment in adults with CKD were considered for inclusion.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two independent authors screened the search results and extracted data. Data synthesis was performed using random-effects pairwise meta-analysis (expressed as odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI)) and network meta-analysis. We assessed for heterogeneity and inconsistency within meta-analyses using standard techniques and planned subgroup and meta-regression to explore sources of heterogeneity or inconsistency. We assessed certainty in treatment estimates for the primary outcomes (preventing blood transfusions and death (any cause)) using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach.

MAIN RESULTS

Sixty-two new studies (9237 participants) were included in this update, so the review now includes 117 studies with 25,237 participants. Most studies were at high or unclear risk of bias in most methodological domains. Overall, results remain similar in this update compared to our previous review in 2014. For preventing blood transfusion, epoetin alfa (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.61; low certainty evidence) and epoetin beta (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.47; low certainty evidence) may be superior to placebo, and darbepoetin alfa was probably superior to placebo (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.67; moderate certainty evidence). Methoxy polyethylene glycol-epoetin beta (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.11 to 1.02; very low certainty evidence), a biosimilar epoetin (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.11 to 1.03; very low certainty evidence) and a biosimilar darbepoetin alfa (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.07 to 1.91; very low certainty evidence) had uncertain effects on preventing blood transfusion compared to placebo. The comparative effects of ESAs compared with another ESA on preventing blood transfusions were uncertain, in low to very low certainty evidence. Effects on death (any cause) were uncertain for epoetin alfa (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.51 to 1.22; low certainty evidence), epoetin beta (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.40 to 1.20; low certainty evidence), methoxy polyethylene glycol-epoetin beta (OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.71; very low certainty evidence), a biosimilar epoetin (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.47 to 1.36; low certainty evidence) and a biosimilar darbepoetin alfa (OR 1.63, 95% CI 0.51 to 5.23; very low certainty evidence) compared to placebo. There was probably no difference between darbepoetin alfa and placebo on the odds of death (any cause) (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.21; moderate certainty evidence). The comparative effects of ESAs compared with another ESA on death (any cause) were uncertain in low to very low certainty evidence. Epoetin beta probably increased the odds of hypertension when compared to placebo (OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.17 to 4.00; moderate certainty evidence). Compared to placebo, epoetin alfa (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.22 to 3.59; very low certainty evidence), darbepoetin alfa (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.12 to 3.14; low certainty evidence) and methoxy polyethylene glycol-epoetin beta (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.05 to 3.74; low certainty evidence) may increase the odds of hypertension, but a biosimilar epoetin (OR 1.88, 95% CI 0.96 to 3.67; low certainty evidence) and biosimilar darbepoetin alfa (OR 1.98, 95% CI 0.84 to 4.66; low certainty evidence) had uncertain effects on hypertension. The comparative effects of all ESAs compared with another ESA, placebo or no treatment on cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular access thrombosis, kidney failure, and breathlessness were uncertain. Network analysis for fatigue was not possible due to sparse data.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The comparative effects of different ESAs on blood transfusions, death (any cause and cardiovascular), major cardiovascular events, myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular access thrombosis, kidney failure, fatigue and breathlessness were uncertain.

Predictive Value of N-Terminal Pro B-Type Natriuretic Peptide for Contrast-Induced Nephropathy Non-Recovery and Poor Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is a frequent complication in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The degree of recovery of renal function from CIN may affect long-term prognosis. N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a simple but useful biomarker for predicting CIN. However, the predictive value of preprocedural NT-proBNP for CIN non-recovery and long-term outcomes in patients undergoing PCI remains unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study prospectively enrolled 550 patients with CIN after PCI between January 2012 and December 2018. CIN non-recovery was defined as persistent serum creatinine >25% or 0.5 mg/dL over baseline from 1 week to 12 months after PCI in patients who developed CIN. CIN non-recovery was observed in 40 (7.3%) patients. Receiver operating characteristic analysis indicated that the best NT-proBNP cut-off value for detecting CIN non-recovery was 876.1 pg/mL (area under the curve 0.768; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.731-0.803). After adjusting for potential confounders, multivariable analysis indicated that NT-proBNP >876.1 pg/mL was an independent predictor of CIN non-recovery (odds ratio 1.94; 95% CI 1.03-3.75; P=0.0042). Kaplan-Meier curves showed higher rates of long-term mortality among patients with CIN non-recovery than those with CIN recovery (Chi-squared=14.183, log-rank P=0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

Preprocedural NT-proBNP was associated with CIN non-recovery among patients undergoing PCI. The optimal cut-off value for NT-proBNP to predict CIN non-recovery was 876.1 pg/mL.

The need for screening, early diagnosis, and prediction of chronic kidney disease in people with diabetes in low- and middle-income countries-a review of the current literature

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) in people with diabetes is becoming an increasing major public health concern, disproportionately burdening low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This rising burden is due to various factors, including the lack of disease awareness that results in late referral and the cost of screening and consequent treatment of the comorbid conditions, as well as other factors endemic to LMICs relating to inadequate management of risk factors. We critically assessed the extant literature, by performing searches of Medline via PubMed, EBSCOhost, Scopus, and Web of Science, for studies pertaining to screening, diagnosis, and prediction of CKD amongst adults with diabetes in LMICs, using relevant key terms. The relevant studies were summarized through key themes derived from the Wilson and Jungner criteria. We found that screening for CKD in people with diabetes is generally infrequent in LMICs. Also, LMICs are ill-equipped to appropriately manage diabetes-associated CKD, especially its late stages, in which supportive care and kidney replacement therapy (KRT) might be required. There are acceptable and relatively simple tools that can aid diabetes-associated CKD screening in these countries; however, these tools come with limitations. Thus, effective implementation of diabetes-associated CKD screening in LMICs remains a challenge, and the cost-effectiveness of such an undertaking largely remains to be explored. In conclusion, for many compelling reasons, screening for CKD in people with diabetes should be a high policy priority in LMICs, as the huge cost associated with higher mortality and morbidity in this group and the cost of KRT offers a compelling economic incentive for improving early detection of diabetes in CKD.

Development and implementation of patient-level prediction models of end-stage renal disease for type 2 diabetes patients using fast healthcare interoperability resources

This study aimed to develop a model to predict the 5-year risk of developing end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using machine learning (ML). It also aimed to implement the developed algorithms into electronic medical records (EMR) system using Health Level Seven (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR). The final dataset used for modeling included 19,159 patients. The medical data were engineered to generate various types of features that were input into the various ML classifiers. The classifier with the best performance was XGBoost, with an area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.95 and area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC) of 0.79 using three-fold cross-validation, compared to other models such as logistic regression, random forest, and support vector machine (AUROC range, 0.929–0.943; AUPRC 0.765–0.792). Serum creatinine, serum albumin, the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, Charlson comorbidity index, estimated GFR, and medication days of insulin were features that were ranked high for the ESRD risk prediction. The algorithm was implemented in the EMR system using HL7 FHIR through an ML-dedicated server that preprocessed unstructured data and trained updated data.

NT-proBNP as a predictor of death and cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes

Existing risk prediction scores based on clinical and laboratory variables have been considered inaccurate in patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). Circulating concentrations of natriuretic peptides have been used to aid in the diagnosis and to predict outcomes in heart failure. However, there is a growing body of evidence for the use of natriuretic peptides measurements, mainly N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), as a tool in risk stratification for individuals with T2DM. Studies have demonstrated the ability of NT-proBNP to improve outcomes prediction when incorporated into multivariate models. More recently, evidence has emerged of the discriminatory power of NT-proBNP, demonstrating, as a single variable, a similar and even superior ability to multivariate risk models for the prediction of death and cardiovascular events in individuals with T2DM. Natriuretic peptides are synthesized and released from the myocardium as a counter-regulatory response to increased cardiac wall stress, sympathetic tone, and vasoconstriction, acting on various systems and affecting different biological processes. In this article, we present a review of the accumulated knowledge about these biomarkers, underscoring the strength of the evidence of their predictive ability for fatal and non-fatal outcomes. It is likely that, by influencing the functioning of many organs, these biomarkers integrate information from different systems. Although not yet recommended by guidelines, measurement of natriuretic peptides, and particularly NT-proBNP, should be strongly considered in the risk stratification of individuals with T2DM.

Development of clinical prediction models for renal and cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease using time-varying predictors

AIMS

To develop a set of prediction models for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), cardiovascular outcomes, and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) using commonly measured clinical variables.

METHODS

We studied 1432 participants with T2D and CKD enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort, followed for a median period of 7 years. We used Cox proportional-hazards models to model the six outcomes (ESKD, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), congestive heart failure (CHF), death before ESKD, and all-cause mortality). We internally evaluated these models using concordance and calibration measures.

RESULTS

The newly developed six prediction models included 15 predictors: age at diabetes diagnosis, sex, blood pressure, body mass index, hemoglobin A1c, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, urine protein-to-creatinine ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate, smoking status, and history of stroke, MI, CHF, ESKD, and amputation. The resulting models demonstrated good/strong discrimination (cross-validation C-index range: 0.70 to 0.90) and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided an internally validated and useful tool for predicting individual adverse outcomes and mortality in patients with T2D and CKD. These models may inform optimal use of targeted health interventions.

Upper Reference Limits for High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T and N-Terminal Fragment of the Prohormone Brain Natriuretic Peptide in Patients With CKD

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

The utility of conventional upper reference limits (URL) for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hsTnT) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains debated. We analyzed the distribution of hsTnT and NT-proBNP in people with CKD in ambulatory settings to examine the diagnostic value of conventional URL in this population.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

We studied participants of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) with CKD and no self-reported history of cardiovascular disease.

EXPOSURE

Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

OUTCOME

NT-proBNP and hsTnT at baseline.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

We described the proportion of participants above the conventional URL for NT-proBNP (125pg/mL) and hsTnT (14ng/L) overall and by eGFR. We then estimated 99th percentile URL for NT-proBNP and hsTnT. Using quantile regression of the 99th percentile, we modeled the association of eGFR with NT-proBNP and hsTnT.

RESULTS

Among 2,312 CKD participants, 40% and 43% had levels of NT-proBNP and hsTnT above the conventional URL, respectively. In those with eGFR <30mL/min/1.73m², 71% and 68% of participants had concentrations of NT-proBNP and hsTnT above the conventional URL, respectively. Among all CKD participants, the 99th percentile for NT-proBNP was 3,592 (95% CI, 2,470-4,849) pg/mL and for hsTnT it was 126 (95% CI, 100-144) ng/L. Each 15mL/min/1.73m² decrement in eGFR was associated with a ~40% higher threshold for the 99th percentile of NT-proBNP (1.43 [95% CI, 1.21-1.69]) and hsTnT (1.45 [95% CI, 1.31-1.60]).

LIMITATIONS

Study included ambulatory patients, and we could not test the accuracy of the URL of NT-proBNP and hsTnT in the acute care setting.

CONCLUSIONS

In this ambulatory CKD population with no self-reported history of cardiovascular disease, a range of 40%-88% of participants had concentrations of NT-proBNP and hsTnT above the conventional URL, depending on eGFR strata. Developing eGFR-specific thresholds for these commonly used cardiac biomarkers in the setting of CKD may improve their utility for evaluation of suspected heart failure and myocardial infarction.

Deterioration of diabetic nephropathy via stimulating secretion of cytokines by atrial natriuretic peptide

BACKGROUND

Atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) is a cardiovascular and metabolic hormone that has been identified recently as being associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) without diabetes. Cytokines such as interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and adiponectin (ADP) contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The aim here was to investigate the relationships of ANP with cytokine levels and clinical variables in T2DM nephropathy patients.

METHODS

A total of 81 participants with T2DM were recruited, including 37 patients with normoalbuminuria, 23 patients with microalbuminuria and 21 patients with macroalbuminuria. Serum concentrations of ANP and cytokines were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits. The correlations between ANP and clinical variables were analyzed. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression models were constructed to test the associations between ANP and the severity and presence of albuminuria.

RESULTS

The macroalbuminuria patients exhibited higher plasma levels of ANP, TNF-α, IL-6, and ADP; higher serum creatinine (Cr) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN); and longer duration of diabetes mellitus (DM) than the patients with normoalbuminuria and microalbuminuria. Plasma ANP level was significantly associated with TNF-α (r = 0.876, p < 0.001), IL-6 (r = 0.816, p < 0.001) and ADP (r = 0.772, p < 0.001), independent of the duration of DM or the BUN concentration.

CONCLUSION

ANP is higher in type 2 diabetes mellitus nephropathy subjects, especially those who have macroalbuminuria, which is associated with compensatory responses to inflammation.

An easy-to-operate web-based calculator for predicting the progression of chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to establish and validate an easy-to-operate novel scoring system based on simple and readily available clinical indices for predicting the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 1045 eligible CKD patients from a publicly available database. Factors included in the model were determined by univariate and multiple Cox proportional hazard analyses based on the training set.

RESULTS

Independent prognostic factors including etiology, hemoglobin level, creatinine level, proteinuria, and urinary protein/creatinine ratio were determined and contained in the model. The model showed good calibration and discrimination. The area under the curve (AUC) values generated to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year progression-free survival in the training set were 0.947, 0.931, and 0.939, respectively. In the validation set, the model still revealed excellent calibration and discrimination, and the AUC values generated to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year progression-free survival were 0.948, 0.933, and 0.915, respectively. In addition, decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model was clinically beneficial. Moreover, to visualize the prediction results, we established a web-based calculator ( https://ncutool.shinyapps.io/CKDprogression/ ).

CONCLUSION

An easy-to-operate model based on five relevant factors was developed and validated as a conventional tool to assist doctors with clinical decision-making and personalized treatment.

Higher extracellular water to total body water ratio was associated with chronic kidney disease progression in type 2 diabetes

AIM

We studied the association between extracellular volume status and chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression; and the role of extracellular volume excess as a potential mediator in the relationship between matrix metalloproteinases (MMP)-2 and CKD progression in Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of 1079 T2DM patients. Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) was performed to assess body fluid status.

RESULTS

After up to 8.6 years of follow-up, 471 (43.7%) patients experienced CKD progression. In the fully adjusted model, extracellular water (ECW)/ total body water (TBW)ratios 0.39-0.40 and > 0.40 were associated with 45% and 78% higher risk of CKD progression respectively. Patients with an increase in ECW/TBW ratio had 40% higher risk of CKD progression compared to those with no change or reduction of ECW/TBW ratio. Higher ECW/TBW ratio accounted for 17.4% of the relationship between MMP-2 and CKD progression in T2DM (p = 0.026).

CONCLUSIONS

Extracellular volume excess was independently associated with CKD progression in T2DM. Higher ECW/TBW ratio mediated the positive association between MMP-2 and CKD progression. Further studies are needed to elucidate the role of extracellular volume excess in deterioration of renal function.

Development and Validation of a Chronic Kidney Disease Prediction Model for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Thailand

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to investigate predictors and develop risk equations for stage-3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Thai patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in patients with type 2 DM. The outcome was the development of stage-3 CKD. The data set was randomly split into training and validation data sets. Cox proportional hazard regression was used for model development. Discrimination (Harrell's C statistic) and calibration (the Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test and survival probability curve) were applied to evaluate model performance.

RESULTS

In total, 2178 type 2 DM patients without stage-3 CKD, visiting the hospital from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2017, were recruited, with median follow-up time of 1.29 years (interquartile range, 0.5-2.5 years); 385 (17.68%) subjects had developed stage-3 CKD. The final predictors included age, male sex, urinary albumin to creatinine ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and hemoglobin A1c. Two 3-year stage-3 CKD risk models, model 1 (laboratory model) and model 2 (simplified model), had the C statistic in validation data sets of 0.890 and 0.812, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Two 3-year stage-3 CKD risk models were developed for Thai patients with type 2 DM. Both models have good discrimination and calibration. These stage-3 CKD prediction models could equip health providers with tools for clinical management and supporting patient education.

Current concepts and advances in biomarkers of acute kidney injury

Despite advancements in standardizing the criteria for acute kidney injury (AKI), its definition remains based on changes in serum creatinine and urinary output that do not specifically represent tubular function or injury and that have significant limitations in the acute hospital setting. Much effort in nephrology has centered on identifying biomarkers of AKI to address these limitations. This review summarizes recent advances in our knowledge of biomarkers involved in pathophysiological processes during AKI and describes their potential clinical implications. Blood and urine biomarkers are released via various mechanisms during renal tubular injury. Urinary kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), liver-type fatty acid binding protein (L-FABP), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-7 (IGFBP-7), and tissue inhibitor of metalloprotease-2 (TIMP-2) are released from the proximal tubule while uromodulin (UMOD) is secreted from the loop of Henle and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is released from the distal tubule. These biomarkers could therefore be used to localize specific segments of injured tubules. Biomarkers also have diverse roles in pathophysiological processes in AKI, including inflammation, repair, and fibrosis. Current evidence suggests that these biomarkers could be used to predict the transition to chronic kidney disease (CKD), decrease discard of AKI kidneys, differentiate between kidney dysfunction and injury, guide AKI management, and improve diagnosis of diseases such as acute interstitial nephritis (AIN). They could differentiate between disease phenotypes, facilitate the inclusion of a homogenous patient population in future trials of AKI, and shed light on therapeutic pathways to prevent the transition from AKI to CKD. However, a major limitation of current biomarker research in AKI is the lack of tissue correlation. The Kidney Precision Medicine Project, a large-scale national effort, is currently underway to construct a kidney tissue atlas and expand the use of biomarkers to assess nephron health. Numerous biomarkers are involved in distinct pathophysiological processes after kidney injury and have demonstrated potential to improve diagnosis and risk stratification as well as provide a prognosis for patients with AKI. Some biomarkers are ready for use in clinical trials of AKI and could guide management in various clinical settings. Further investigation of these biomarkers will provide insight that can be applied to develop novel therapeutic agents for AKI.

Towards the best kidney failure prediction tool: a systematic review and selection aid

Background

Prediction tools that identify chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients at a high risk of developing kidney failure have the potential for great clinical value, but limited uptake. The aim of the current study is to systematically review all available models predicting kidney failure in CKD patients, organize empirical evidence on their validity and ultimately provide guidance in the interpretation and uptake of these tools.

Methods

PubMed and EMBASE were searched for relevant articles. Titles, abstracts and full-text articles were sequentially screened for inclusion by two independent researchers. Data on study design, model development and performance were extracted. The risk of bias and clinical usefulness were assessed and combined in order to provide recommendations on which models to use.

Results

Of 2183 screened studies, a total of 42 studies were included in the current review. Most studies showed high discriminatory capacity and the included predictors had large overlap. Overall, the risk of bias was high. Slightly less than half the studies (48%) presented enough detail for the use of their prediction tool in practice and few models were externally validated.

Conclusions

The current systematic review may be used as a tool to select the most appropriate and robust prognostic model for various settings. Although some models showed great potential, many lacked clinical relevance due to being developed in a prevalent patient population with a wide range of disease severity. Future research efforts should focus on external validation and impact assessment in clinically relevant patient populations.

Comparison of Natriuretic Peptides as Risk Markers for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular and Renal Complications in Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Few studies have compared midregional proatrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) and N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). We compared their value as risk markers for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular (CV) and renal complications in individuals with type 1 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

MR-proANP and NT-proBNP were measured in 664 individuals. Hazard ratios (HRs) were assessed per doubling of NT-proBNP or MR-proANP for risk of a composite of ischemic events, heart failure (HF), a combined renal end point of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥30%, and all-cause mortality or individual end points. Adjustments included CV risk factors and addition of MR-proANP or NT-proBNP.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 5.1-6.2 years. MR-proANP was associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (n = 57; HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.7), combined CV end point (n = 94; 1.6, 1.1-2.2), HF (n = 27; 2.8, 1.5-5.2), combined renal end point (n = 123; 1.6, 1.2-2.1), and ESKD (n = 21; 3.1, 1.2-7.8) independent of CV risk factors (P ≤ 0.02). After addition of NT-proBNP, significance for all end points was lost. A doubling of NT-proBNP was associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-1.8), the combined CV end point (1.3, 1.1-1.5), HF (1.7, 1.3-2.1), and the combined renal end point (1.3, 1.1-1.4) independent of CV risk factors (model 2 [P < 0.001]) and MR-proANP (model 3 [P ≤ 0.03]). There was no association with decline in eGFR ≥30% (n = 93).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher NT-proBNP was independently associated with all-cause mortality, CV disease, HF, and the combined renal end point. MR-proANP was associated with all end points but decline in eGFR, although not independent of NT-proBNP. MR-proANP may contribute to the predictive value of NT-proBNP for risk stratification in type 1 diabetes.

N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide and Incident CKD

Introduction

Serum N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels have been associated with the progression of kidney impairment among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but only a few studies have investigated the association between serum NT-proBNP levels and incident CKD in general populations.

Methods

A total of 2486 Japanese community-dwelling residents ≥40 years of age without CKD at baseline were followed up by repeated annual health examinations for 10 years. Participants were divided into 4 groups according to serum NT-proBNP levels. CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73m² or the presence of proteinuria. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for risk of CKD. Linear mixed models were used to compare changes in eGFR.

Results

During the follow-up period, 800 participants developed CKD. The multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for developing CKD were 1.00 (reference), 1.32 (1.11–1.57), 1.40 (1.10–1.78), and 1.94 (1.38–2.73) for serum NT-proBNP levels of <55, 55–124, 125–299, and ≥300 pg/ml, respectively (P for trend <0.001). The decline of eGFR during the follow-up was significantly more rapid among participants with higher serum NT-proBNP levels (P for trend <0.001). Adding serum NT-proBNP to the model composed of known risk factors for CKD improved the predictive ability for developing CKD.

Conclusions

Higher serum NT-proBNP levels were associated with greater risks of developing CKD and greater decline in eGFR. Serum NT-proBNP could be a useful biomarker for assessing the future risk of CKD in a general Japanese population.

Linking Kidney and Cardiovascular Complications in Diabetes-Impact on Prognostication and Treatment: The 2019 Edwin Bierman Award Lecture

In diabetes, increasing albuminuria and decreasing glomerular filtration rate are hallmarks of chronic kidney disease in diabetes and increase the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular events and mortality as well as the risk for end-stage kidney disease. For two decades, standard of care has been controlling risk factors, such as glucose, blood pressure, lipids, and lifestyle factors, and specifically use of agents blocking the renin-angiotensin system. This has improved outcome, but a large unmet need has been obvious. After many failed attempts to advance the therapeutic options, the past few years have provided several new promising treatment options such as sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors, endothelin receptor antagonists, glucagon-like peptide 1 agonists, and nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists. The benefits and side effects of these agents demonstrate the link between kidney and heart; some have beneficial effects on both, whereas for other potentially renoprotective agents, development of heart failure has been a limiting factor. They work on different pathways such as hemodynamic, metabolic, inflammatory, and fibrotic targets. We propose that treatment may be personalized if biomarkers or physiological investigations assessing activity in these pathways are applied. This could potentially pave the way for precision medicine, where treatment is optimized for maximal benefit and minimal adverse outcomes. At least it may help prioritizing agents for an individual subject.

Novel Risk Factors for Progression of Diabetic and Nondiabetic CKD: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Identification of novel risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression may inform mechanistic investigations and improve identification of high-risk subgroups. The current study aimed to characterize CKD progression across levels of numerous risk factors and identify independent risk factors for CKD progression among those with and without diabetes.

STUDY DESIGN

The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study is a prospective cohort study of adults with CKD conducted at 7 US clinical centers.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Participants (N=3,379) had up to 12.3 years of follow-up; 47% had diabetes.

PREDICTORS

30 risk factors for CKD progression across sociodemographic, behavioral, clinical, and biochemical domains at baseline.

OUTCOMES

Study outcomes were estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope and the composite of halving of eGFR or initiation of kidney replacement therapy.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Stepwise selection of independent risk factors was performed stratified by diabetes status using linear mixed-effects and Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Among those without and with diabetes, respectively, mean eGFR slope was-1.4±3.3 and-2.7±4.7mL/min/1.73m2 per year. Among participants with diabetes, multivariable-adjusted hazard of the composite outcome was approximately 2-fold or greater with higher levels of the inflammatory chemokine CXCL12, the cardiac marker N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and the kidney injury marker urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL). Among those without diabetes, low serum bicarbonate and higher high-sensitivity troponin T, NT-proBNP, and urinary NGAL levels were all significantly associated with a 1.5-fold or greater rate of the composite outcome.

LIMITATIONS

The observational study design precludes causal inference.

CONCLUSIONS

Strong associations for cardiac markers, plasma CXCL12, and urinary NGAL are comparable to that of systolic blood pressure≥140mm Hg, a well-established risk factor for CKD progression. This warrants further investigation into the potential mechanisms that these markers indicate and opportunities to use them to improve risk stratification.

Cardiovascular disease-related mortality risk in end stage renal disease and type 2 diabetes: A systematic review

Background

Patients with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes can have microvascular and macrovascular complications, including renal impairment and cardiovascular diseases. However, it is unknown how diabetes and renal disease could influence cardiovascular mortality.

Objective

This study aims at examining the medical literature to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular death in concomitant end stage renal disease with type 2 diabetes.

Method

Medical literature was reviewed through Medline, PubMed, Embase, and Ovid database in the duration between 2009 and 2019. Searching terms included were a combination of "type 2 diabetes mellitus" AND "end-stage renal disease" AND "cardiovascular mortality". Following this, results were filtered to include only original research articles investigating cardiovascular mortality in concomitant diabetes and end-stage renal disease. Selected trials mentioned diabetes control as well as the follow-up duration of the included patients.

Result

A total of 1508 articles were retrieved. Following the exclusion of articles on animals and including only trials on humans, 32 articles appeared. A total of eight articles were identified as eligible, covering a total of 2,06,492 diabetic patients with end-stage renal disease. All the studies were prospective studies, except for three studies that were retrospective.

Conclusion

There is an elevated cardiovascular mortality risk in concomitant type 2 diabetes mellitus and end-stage renal disease, especially with uncontrolled blood glucose levels.

Prognostic Impact of B-Type Natriuretic Peptide on Long-Term Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction Without Creatine Kinase Elevation

Although B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) has gradually gained recognition as an indicator in risk stratification for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), the prognostic impact on long-term clinical outcomes in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) without creatine kinase (CK) elevation remains unclear.This prospective multicenter study assessed 3,283 consecutive patients with AMI admitted to 28 institutions in Japan between 2012 and 2014. We analyzed 218 patients with NSTEMI without CK elevation (NSTEMI-CK) for whom BNP was available. In the NSTEMI-CK group, patients were assigned to high- and low-BNP groups according to BNP values (cut-off BNP, 100 pg/mL). The primary endpoint was defined as a composite of all-cause death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, cardiac failure, and urgent revascularization for unstable angina up to 3 years. Primary endpoints were observed in 60 (33.3%) events among patients with NSTEMI-CK. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a significantly higher event rate for primary endpoints among patients with high BNP (log-rank P < 0.001). After adjusting for covariates, a higher BNP level was significantly associated with long-term clinical outcomes in NSTEMI-CK (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.86; 95% confidence interval, 2.18-12.44; P < 0.001).The BNP concentration is associated with adverse long-term clinical outcomes among patients with NSTEMI-CK who are considered low risk. Careful clinical management may be warranted for secondary prevention in patients with NSTEMI-CK with high BNP levels.

Individualised risk prediction model for new-onset, progression and regression of chronic kidney disease in a retrospective cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes under primary care in Hong Kong

OBJECTIVES

This study is aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for multistate transitions across different stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus under primary care.

SETTING

We retrieved the anonymised electronic health records of a population-based retrospective cohort in Hong Kong.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 26 197 patients were included in the analysis.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The new-onset, progression and regression of CKD were defined by the transitions of four stages that were classified by combining glomerular filtration rate and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio. We applied a multiscale multistate Poisson regression model to estimate the rates of the stage transitions by integrating the baseline demographic characteristics, routine laboratory test results and clinical data from electronic health records.

RESULTS

During the mean follow-up time of 1.8 years, there were 2632 patients newly diagnosed with CKD, 1746 progressed to the next stage and 1971 regressed into an earlier stage. The models achieved the best performance in predicting the new-onset and progression with the predictors of sex, age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, serum creatinine, haemoglobin A1c, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides and drug prescriptions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that individual risks of new-onset and progression of CKD can be predicted from the routine physical and laboratory test results. The individualised prediction curves developed from this study could potentially be applied to routine clinical practices, to facilitate clinical decision making, risk communications with patients and early interventions.

The Impact of CKD Anaemia on Patients: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Clinical Outcomes-A Systematic Literature Review

Anaemia is a common consequence of chronic kidney disease (CKD); however, the risk factors for its development and its impact on outcomes have not been well synthesised. Therefore, we undertook a systematic review to fully characterise the risk factors associated with the presence of anaemia in patients with CKD and a contemporary synthesis of the risks of adverse outcomes in patients with CKD and anaemia. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library from 2002 until 2018 for studies reporting the incidence or prevalence of anaemia and associated risk factors and/or associations between haemoglobin (Hb) or anaemia and mortality, major adverse cardiac events (MACE), hospitalisation, or CKD progression in adult patients with CKD. Extracted data were summarised as risk factors related to the incidence or prevalence of anaemia or the risk (hazard ratio (HR)) of outcome by Hb level (<10, 10-12, >12 g/dL) in patients not on dialysis and in those receiving dialysis. 191 studies met the predefined inclusion criteria. The risk factor most associated with the prevalence of anaemia was CKD stage, followed by age and sex. Mean HRs (95% CI) for all-cause mortality in patients with CKD on dialysis with Hb <10, 10-12, and >12 g/dL were 1.56 (1.43-1.71), 1.17 (1.09-1.26), and 0.91 (0.87-0.96), respectively. Similar patterns were observed for nondialysis patients and for the risks of hospitalisation, MACE, and CKD progression. This is the first known systematic review to quantify the risk of adverse clinical outcomes based on Hb level in patients with CKD. Anaemia was consistently associated with greater mortality, hospitalisation, MACE, and CKD progression in patients with CKD, and risk increased with anaemia severity. Effective treatments that not only treat the anaemia but also reduce the risk of adverse clinical outcomes are essential to help reduce the burden of anaemia and its management in CKD.

Research Priorities for Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Working Group Summary

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), a major public health problem that is rising in prevalence, is associated with high morbidity and mortality and is considered to be the greatest unmet need in cardiovascular medicine today because of a general lack of effective treatments. To address this challenging syndrome, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened a working group made up of experts in HFpEF and novel research methodologies to discuss research gaps and to prioritize research directions over the next decade. Here, we summarize the discussion of the working group, followed by key recommendations for future research priorities. There was uniform recognition that HFpEF is a highly integrated, multiorgan, systemic disorder requiring a multipronged investigative approach in both humans and animal models to improve understanding of mechanisms and treatment of HFpEF. It was recognized that advances in the understanding of basic mechanisms and the roles of inflammation, macrovascular and microvascular dysfunction, fibrosis, and tissue remodeling are needed and ideally would be obtained from (1) improved animal models, including large animal models, which incorporate the effects of aging and associated comorbid conditions; (2) repositories of deeply phenotyped physiological data and human tissue, made accessible to researchers to enhance collaboration and research advances; and (3) novel research methods that take advantage of computational advances and multiscale modeling for the analysis of complex, high-density data across multiple domains. The working group emphasized the need for interactions among basic, translational, clinical, and epidemiological scientists and across organ systems and cell types, leveraging different areas or research focus, and between research centers. A network of collaborative centers to accelerate basic, translational, and clinical research of pathobiological mechanisms and treatment strategies in HFpEF was discussed as an example of a strategy to advance research progress. This resource would facilitate comprehensive, deep phenotyping of a multicenter HFpEF patient cohort with standardized protocols and a robust biorepository. The research priorities outlined in this document are meant to stimulate scientific advances in HFpEF by providing a road map for future collaborative investigations among a diverse group of scientists across multiple domains.

Development and validation of a predictive model for end-stage renal disease risk in patients with diabetic nephropathy confirmed by renal biopsy

This study was performed to develop and validate a predictive model for the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) inpatients with diabetic nephropathy (DN) confirmed by renal biopsy. We conducted a retrospective study with 968 patients with T2DM who underwentrenal biopsy for the pathological confirmation of DNat the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from February 2012 to January 2015; the patients were followed until December 2018. The outcome was defined as a fatal or nonfatal ESRD event (peritoneal dialysis or hemodialysis for ESRD, renal transplantation, or death due to chronic renal failure or ESRD). The dataset was randomly split into development (75%) and validation (25%) cohorts. We used stepwise multivariablelogistic regression to identify baseline predictors for model development. The model’s performance in the two cohorts, including discrimination and calibration, was evaluated by the C-statistic and the P value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. During the 3-year follow-up period, there were 225 outcome events (47.1%) during follow-up. Outcomes occurred in 187 patients (52.2%) in the derivation cohort and 38 patients (31.7%) in the validation cohort. The variables selected in the final multivariable logistic regression after backward selection were pathological grade, Log Urinary Albumin-to-creatinine ratio (Log ACR), cystatin C, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). 4 prediction models were created in a derivation cohort of 478 patients: a clinical model that included cystatin C, eGFR, BNP, Log ACR; a clinical-pathological model and a clinical-medication model, respectively, also contained pathological grade and renin-angiotensin system blocker (RASB) use; and a full model that also contained the pathological grade, RASB use and age. Compared with the clinical model, the clinical-pathological model and the full model had better C statistics (0.865 and 0.866, respectively, vs. 0.864) in the derivation cohort and better C statistics (0.876 and 0.875, respectively, vs. 0.870) in the validation cohort. Among the four models, the clinical-pathological model had the lowest AIC of 332.53 and the best P value of 0.909 of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. We constructed a nomogram which was a simple calculator to predict the risk ratio of progression to ESRD for patients with DN within 3 years. The clinical-pathological model using routinely available clinical measurements was shown to be accurate and validated method for predicting disease progression in patients with DN. The risk model can be used in clinical practice to improve the quality of risk management and early intervention.

Serum N-terminal Pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide Predicts Mortality in Cardiac Surgery Patients Receiving Renal Replacement Therapy

Background: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a useful cardiac biomarker that is associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality after cardiac surgery. However, its prognostic value in cardiac surgical patients receiving renal replacement therapy (RRT) remains unclear. Objectives: Our study aimed to assess the prognostic value of NT-proBNP in patients with established AKI receiving RRT after cardiac surgery. Methods: A total of 163 cardiac surgical patients with AKI requiring RRT were enrolled in this study. Baseline characteristics, hemodynamic variables at RRT initiation, and NT-proBNP level before surgery, at RRT initiation, and on the first day after RRT were collected. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality after RRT initiation. Results: Serum NT-proBNP levels in non-survivors was markedly higher than survivors before surgery (median: 4,096 [IQR, 962.0-9583.8] vs. 1,339 [IQR, 446-5,173] pg/mL; P < 0.01), at RRT initiation (median: 10,366 [IQR, 5,668-20,646] vs. 3,779 [IQR, 1,799-11,256] pg/mL; P < 0.001), and on the first day after RRT (median: 9,055.0 [IQR, 4,392-24,348] vs. 5,255 [IQR, 2,134-9,175] pg/mL; P < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of NT-proBNP before surgery, at RRT initiation, and on the first day after RRT for predicting 28-day mortality was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.55-0.73), 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63-0.79), and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.60-0.76), respectively. Consistently, Cox regression revealed that NT-proBNP levels before surgery (HR: 1.27, 95% CI, 1.06-1.52), at RRT initiation (HR: 1.11, 95% CI, 1.06-1.17), and on the first day after RRT (HR: 1.17, 95% CI, 1.11-1.23) were independently associated with 28-day mortality. Conclusions: Serum NT-proBNP was an independent predictor of 28-day mortality in cardiac surgical patients with AKI requiring RRT. The prognostic role of NT-proBNP needs to be confirmed in the future.

Cardiac and Stress Biomarkers and Chronic Kidney Disease Progression: The CRIC Study

BACKGROUND

Increases in cardiac and stress biomarkers may be associated with loss of kidney function through shared mechanisms involving cardiac and kidney injury. We evaluated the associations of cardiac and stress biomarkers [N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), soluble ST-2 (sST-2)] with progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

We included 3664 participants with CKD from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study. All biomarkers were measured at entry. The primary outcome was CKD progression, defined as progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Cox models tested the association of each biomarker with CKD progression, adjusting for demographics, site, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, eGFR, urine proteinuria, blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol, medication use, and mineral metabolism.

RESULTS

There were 1221 participants who had CKD progression over a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 5.8 (2.4-8.6) years. GDF-15, but not sST2, was significantly associated with an increased risk of CKD progression [hazard ratios (HRs) are per SD increase in log-transformed biomarker]: GDF-15 (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.35-1.67) and sST2 (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.99-1.14). NT-proBNP and hsTnT were also associated with increased risk of CKD progression, but weaker than GDF-15: NT-proBNP (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.13-1.36) and hsTnT (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.22).

CONCLUSIONS

Increases in GDF-15, NT-proBNP, and hsTnT are associated with greater risk for CKD progression. These biomarkers may inform mechanisms underlying kidney injury.

A predictive model for progression of CKD

The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Taiwan is 11.9%, and the incidence and prevalence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is ranked first in the world. The severity of CKD progression to ESRD is dependent on glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria. However, the risk factors for ESRD also include diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, age, sex, and so on, and predicting CKD progression using few variables is insufficient. Currently, there are no models with high accuracy and high explanatory power that could predict the risk of progression to dialysis in CKD patients in Taiwan. Our aim was to establish an optimal prediction model for CKD progression in patientsThis study was a retrospective cohort study, which reviewed data from the "Public health insurance Pre-ESRD preventive program and patient health education program" that was implemented by the National Health Insurance Administration, Ministry of Health and Welfare. From 2006 to 2013, data of CKD patients from the Tri-Service General Hospital in Neihu District, Taipei City was examined. The data collected in this study included demographic variables, past medical history, and blood biochemical values. After exclusion of variables with >30% missing data, the remaining variables were interpolated using multiple imputations and inputted into the prediction model for analysis. The Cox proportion hazard model was used to investigate the influence of CKD risk factors on progression to dialysis. The strengths of various models were evaluated using likelihood ratios (LR), in order to identify a model which uses the least factors but has the strongest explanatory power.The study results included 1549 CKD patients, of whom 1017 eventually had dialysis. This study found that in the prediction model with the best explanatory power, the influencing factors and hazard ratios (HR) were: age 0.95 (0.91-0.99), creatinine 1.03 (1.02-1.05), urea nitrogen 1.18 (1.14-1.23), and comorbid systemic diabetes 1.65 (1.45-1.88).A prediction model was developed in this study, which could be used to carry out predictions based on blood biochemical values from patients, in order to accurately predict the risk of CKD progression to dialysis.

Development of model to predict end-stage renal disease after coronary artery bypass grafting: The ACHE score

Because end-stage renal disease (ESRD) increases the risks of morbidity and mortality, early detection and prevention of ESRD is a critical issue in clinical practice. However, no ESRD-prediction models have been developed or validated in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).This is a retrospective multicenter cohort study, recruited between January 2004 and December 2015. A cohort of 3089 patients undergoing CABG in two tertiary referral centers was analyzed to derive a risk-prediction model. The model was developed using Cox proportional hazard analyses, and its performance was assessed using C-statistics. The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 279 patients.During the median follow-up of 6 years (maximum 13 years), ESRD occurred in 60 patients (2.0%). Through stepwise selection multivariate analyses, the following three variables were finally included in the ESRD-prediction model: postoperative Acute kidney injury, underlying Chronic kidney disease, and the number of antiHypertensive drugs (ACHE score). This model showed good performance in predicting ESRD with the following C-statistics: 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.94) in the development cohort and 0.82 (95% CI 0.60-1.00) in the external validation cohort.The present ESRD-prediction model may be applicable to patients undergoing CABG, with the advantage of simplicity and preciseness.

Metformin use and cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease

AIMS

Metformin could have benefits on cardiovascular disease and kidney disease progression but is often withheld from individuals with diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD) because of a concern that it may increase the risk of lactic acidosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, cardiovascular events (death, hospitalization for heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke or myocardial ischemia), end stage renal disease (ESRD) and the kidney disease composite (ESRD or death) were compared in metformin users and non-users with diabetes and CKD enrolled in the Trial to Reduce Cardiovascular Events with Aranesp (darbepoeitin-alfa) Therapy (TREAT) (NCT00093015). Outcomes were compared after propensity matching of users and non-users and in multivariable proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

There were 591 individuals who used metformin at baseline and 3447 non-users. Among propensity-matched users, the crude incidence rate for mortality, cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular events and the combined endpoint was lower in metformin users than in non-users, but ESRD was marginally higher (4.0% vs 3.6%). Metformin use was independently associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.36-0.69), cardiovascular death (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.32-0.74), the cardiovascular composite (HR, 0.67, 95% CI, 0.51-0.88) and the kidney disease composite (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.61-0.98). Associations with ESRD (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.65-1.55) were not significant. Results were qualitatively similar in adjusted analyses of the full population. Two cases of lactic acidosis were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Metformin may be safer for use in CKD than previously considered and may lower the risk of death and cardiovascular events in individuals with stage 3 CKD.

The interaction between N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and fluid status in adverse clinical outcomes of late stages of chronic kidney disease

Introduction

Fluid overload is one of the major characteristics and complications in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is related to fluid status and fluid distribution. The aim of this study is to investigate the interaction between NT-proBNP and fluid status in adverse clinical outcomes of late stages of CKD.

Methods

We enrolled 239 patients with CKD stages 4–5 from January 2011 to December 2011 and followed up until June 2017. Fluid status was presented as hydration status (HS) value measured by body composition monitor, while HS>7% was defined as fluid overload. Clinical outcomes included renal outcomes (commencing dialysis and estimated glomerular filtration rate decline>3 ml/min/1.73 m²/year), all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs).

Results

During a mean follow-up of 3.3±2.0 years, 129(54.7%) patients commenced dialysis, 88(37.3%) patients presented rapid renal function decline, and 48(20.3%) had MACEs or died. All patients were stratified by HS of 7% and the median of plasma NT-proBNP. The adjusted risks for commencing dialysis was significantly higher in patients with high plasma NT-proBNP and HS>7% compared to those with low plasma NT-proBNP and HS≦7%. There was a significant interaction between plasma NT-proBNP and HS in commencing dialysis (P-interaction = 0.047). Besides, patients with high plasma NT-proBNP and HS>7% had greater risks for MACEs or all-cause mortality than others with either high plasma NT-proBNP or HS>7%.

Conclusion

NT-proBNP and fluid overload might have a synergistic association of adverse clinical outcomes in patients with late stages of CKD.

Incorporating Scoring Risk Models for Care Planning of the Elderly with Chronic Kidney Disease

Mortality in chronic kidney disease remains high, particularly among the elderly, who represent the most rapidly growing segment of the end-stage renal disease population in wealthier countries. The management of older adults with chronic kidney disease has become a clinical challenge, and care for those patients expected to progress to end-stage renal disease should focus on evaluating the overall benefit of offering renal replacement therapy to them. Predictive mortality models may help to inform shared decision-making in the trajectory of the elderly with chronic kidney disease. This review discusses current literature on the available predictive models for predicting survival in elderly chronic kidney disease patients and reflects the author's own interpretation and experience.

Strategies to improve monitoring disease progression, assessing cardiovascular risk, and defining prognostic biomarkers in chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major global public health problem with significant gaps in research, care, and policy. In order to mitigate the risks and adverse effects of CKD, the International Society of Nephrology has created a cohesive set of activities to improve the global outcomes of people living with CKD. Improving monitoring of renal disease progression can be done by screening and monitoring albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate in primary care. Consensus on how many times and how often albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate are measured should be defined. Meaningful changes in both renal biomarkers should be determined in order to ascertain what is clinically relevant. Increasing social awareness of CKD and partnering with the technological community may be ways to engage patients. Furthermore, improving the prediction of cardiovascular events in patients with CKD can be achieved by including the renal risk markers albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate in cardiovascular risk algorithms and by encouraging uptake of assessing cardiovascular risk by general practitioners and nephrologists. Finally, examining ways to further validate and implement novel biomarkers for CKD will help mitigate the global problem of CKD. The more frequent use of renal biopsy will facilitate further knowledge into the underlying etiologies of CKD and help put new biomarkers into biological context. Real-world assessments of these biomarkers in existing cohorts is important, as well as obtaining regulatory approval to use these biomarkers in clinical practice. Collaborations among academia, physician and patient groups, industry, payer organizations, and regulatory authorities will help improve the global outcomes of people living with CKD.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for end-stage renal disease in patients with type 2 diabetes

The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model for ESRD in patients with type 2 diabetes. A retrospective cohort study was conducted, consisting of 24,104 Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes. We adopted the procedures proposed by the Framingham Heart Study to develop a prediction model for ESRD. Participants were randomly assigned to the derivation and validation sets at a 2:1 ratio. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for model development. A total of 813 and 402 subjects (5.06% and 5.00%, respectively) developed ESRD in the derivation and validation sets over a mean follow-up period of 8.3 years. The risk-scoring systems included age, gender, age of diabetes onset, combined statuses of blood pressure and anti-hypertensive medication use, creatinine, variation in HbA1c, variation in systolic blood pressure, diabetes retinopathy, albuminuria, anti-diabetes medications, and combined statuses of hyperlipidemia and anti-hyperlipidemia medication use. The area under curves of 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year ESRD risks were 0.90, 0.86, and 0.81 in the derivation set, respectively. This risk score model can be used as screening for early prevention. The risk prediction for 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year period demonstrated good predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability.

Cardiovascular disease biomarkers are associated with declining renal function in type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We investigated whether biochemical cardiovascular risk factors and/or markers of subclinical cardiovascular disease were associated with the development of reduced renal function in people with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

A cohort of 1066 Scottish men and women aged 60-74 years with type 2 diabetes from the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study were followed up for a median of 6.7 years. New-onset reduced renal function was defined as two eGFRs <60 ml-1 min-1 (1.73 m)-2 at least 3 months apart with a > 25% decline from baseline eGFR. Ankle brachial pressure index (ABI), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) were measured at baseline. Pulse wave velocity (PWV) and carotid intima media thickness were measured 1 year into follow-up. Data were analysed using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

A total of 119 participants developed reduced renal function during follow-up. ABI, PWV, NT-proBNP and hsTnT were all associated with onset of decline in renal function following adjustment for age and sex. These associations were attenuated after adjustment for additional diabetes renal disease risk factors (systolic BP, baseline eGFR, albumin:creatinine ratio and smoking pack-years), with the exception of hsTnT which remained independently associated (HR 1.51 [95% CI 1.22, 1.87]). Inclusion of hsTnT in a predictive model improved the continuous net reclassification index by 0.165 (0.008, 0.286).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our findings demonstrate an association between hsTnT, a marker of subclinical cardiac ischaemia, and subsequent renal function decline. Further research is required to establish the predictive value of hsTnT and response to intervention.