Unexpected slowdown of US pollutant emission reduction in the past decade

High-Resolution Modeling of Summertime Biogenic Isoprene Emissions in New York City

As cities strive for ambitious increases in tree canopy cover and reductions in anthropogenic volatile organic compound (AVOC) emissions, accurate assessments of the impacts of biogenic VOCs (BVOCs) on air quality become more important. In this study, we aim to quantify the impact of future urban greening on ozone production. BVOC emissions in dense urban areas are often coarsely represented in regional models. We set up a high-resolution (30 m) MEGAN (The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 3.2) to estimate summertime biogenic isoprene emissions in the New York City metro area (NYC-MEGAN). Coupling an observation-constrained box model with NYC-MEGAN isoprene emissions successfully reproduced the observed isoprene concentrations in the city core. We then estimated future isoprene emissions from likely urban greening scenarios and evaluated the potential impact on future ozone production. NYC-MEGAN predicts up to twice as much isoprene emissions in NYC as the coarse-resolution (1.33 km) Biogenic Emission Inventory System version 3.61 (BEIS) on hot summer days. We find that BVOCs drive ozone production on hot summer days, even in the city core, despite large AVOC emissions. If high isoprene emitting species (e.g., oak trees) are planted, future isoprene emissions could increase by 1.4-2.2 times in the city core, which would result in 8-19 ppbv increases in peak ozone on ozone exceedance days with current NOx concentrations. We recommend planting non- or low-isoprene emitting trees in cities with high NOx concentrations to avoid an increase in the frequency and severity of future ozone exceedance events.

Improved Spatial Resolution in Modeling of Nitrogen Oxide Concentrations in the Los Angeles Basin

The extent to which emission control technologies and policies have reduced anthropogenic NOx emissions from motor vehicles is large but uncertain. We evaluate a fuel-based emission inventory for southern California during the June 2021 period, coinciding with the Re-Evaluating the Chemistry of Air Pollutants in CAlifornia (RECAP-CA) field campaign. A modified version of the Fuel-based Inventory of Vehicle Emissions (FIVE) is presented, incorporating 1.3 km resolution gridding and a new light-/medium-duty diesel vehicle category. NOx concentrations and weekday-weekend differences were predicted using the WRF-Chem model and evaluated using satellite and aircraft observations. Model performance was similar on weekdays and weekends, indicating appropriate day-of-week scaling of NOx emissions and a reasonable distribution of emissions by sector. Large observed weekend decreases in NOx are mainly due to changes in on-road vehicle emissions. The inventory presented in this study suggests that on-road vehicles were responsible for 55-72% of the NOx emissions in the South Coast Air Basin, compared to the corresponding fraction (43%) in the planning inventory from the South Coast Air Quality Management District. This fuel-based inventory suggests on-road NOx emissions that are 1.5 ± 0.4, 2.8 ± 0.6, and 1.3 ± 0.7 times the reference EMFAC model estimates for on-road gasoline, light- and medium-duty diesel, and heavy-duty diesel, respectively.

NO Selective Catalytic Reduction over Atom-Pair Active Sites Accelerated via In Situ NO Oxidation

Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) of NO_x with NH₃ is the most efficient technology for NO_x emissions control, but the activity of catalysts decreases exponentially with the decrease in reaction temperature, hindering the application of the technology in low-temperature SCR to treat industrial stack gases. Here, we present an industrially practicable technology to significantly enhance the SCR activity at low temperatures (<250 °C). By introducing an appropriate amount of O₃ into the simulated stack gas, we find that O₃ can stoichiometrically oxidize NO to generate NO₂, which enables NO reduction to follow the fast SCR mechanism so as to accelerate SCR at low temperatures, and, in particular, an increase in SCR rate by more than four times is observed over atom-pair V₁-W₁ active sites supported on TiO₂(001) at 200 °C. Using operando SCR tests and in situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectra, we reveal that the introduction of O₃ allows SCR to proceed along a NH₄NO₃-mediated Langmuir-Hinshelwood model, in which the adsorbed nitrate species speed up the re-oxidation of the catalytic sites that is the rate-limiting step of SCR, thus leading to the enhancement of activity at low temperatures. This technology could be applicable in the real stack gas conditions because O₃ exclusively oxidizes NO even in the co-presence of SO₂ and H₂O, which provides a general strategy to improve low-temperature SCR efficacy from another perspective beyond designing catalysts.

Nitrogen uptake and remobilization from pre- and post-anthesis stages contribute towards grain yield and grain protein concentration in wheat grown in limited nitrogen conditions

Background

In wheat, nitrogen (N) remobilization from vegetative tissues to developing grains largely depends on genetic and environmental factors. The evaluation of genetic potential of crops under limited resource inputs such as limited N supply would provide an opportunity to identify N-efficient lines with improved N utilisation efficiency and yield potential. We assessed the genetic variation in wheat recombinant inbred lines (RILs) for uptake, partitioning, and remobilization of N towards grain, its association with grain protein concentration (GPC) and grain yield.

Methods

We used the nested association mapping (NAM) population (195 lines) derived by crossing Paragon (P) with CIMMYT core germplasm (P × Cim), Baj (P × Baj), Watkins (P × Wat), and Wyalkatchem (P × Wya). These lines were evaluated in the field for two seasons under limited N supply. The plant sampling was done at anthesis and physiological maturity stages. Various physiological traits were recorded and total N uptake and other N related indices were calculated. The grain protein deviation (GPD) was calculated from the regression of grain yield on GPC. These lines were grouped into different clusters by hierarchical cluster analysis based on grain yield and N-remobilization efficiency (NRE).

Results

The genetic variation in accumulation of biomass at both pre- and post-anthesis stages were correlated with grain-yield. The NRE significantly correlated with aboveground N uptake at anthesis (AGNa) and grain yield but negatively associated with AGN at post-anthesis (AGNpa) suggesting higher N uptake till anthesis favours high N remobilization during grain filling. Hierarchical cluster analysis of these RILs based on NRE and yield resulted in four clusters, efficient (31), moderately efficient (59), moderately inefficient (58), and inefficient (47). In the N-efficient lines, AGNa contributed to 77% of total N accumulated in grains, while it was 63% in N-inefficient lines. Several N-efficient lines also exhibited positive grain protein deviation (GPD), combining high grain yield and GPC. Among crosses, the P × Cim were superior and N-efficient, while P × Wya responded poorly to low N input.

Conclusions

We propose that traits favouring pre- or post-anthesis biomass accumulation and pre-anthesis N uptake may be targeted for breeding to improve grain-yield under limited N. The lines with positive GPD, a first report of genotype-dependent GPD associated with both AGNpa and AGNa in wheat, may be used as varieties or genetic resources to improve grain yield with high GPC for sustainable development under limited N conditions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s43170-023-00153-7.

Predictability of fossil fuel CO2 from air quality emissions

Quantifying the coevolution of greenhouse gases and air quality pollutants can provide insight into underlying anthropogenic processes enabling predictions of their emission trajectories. Here, we classify the dynamics of historic emissions in terms of a modified Environmental Kuznets Curve (MEKC), which postulates the coevolution of fossil fuel CO₂ (FFCO₂) and NOx emissions as a function of macroeconomic development. The MEKC broadly captures the historic FFCO₂-NO_x dynamical regimes for countries including the US, China, and India as well as IPCC scenarios. Given these dynamics, we find the predictive skill of FFCO2 given NO_x emissions constrained by satellite data is less than 2% error at one-year lags for many countries and less than 10% for 4-year lags. The proposed framework in conjunction with an increasing satellite constellation provides valuable guidance to near-term emission scenario development and evaluation at time-scales relevant to international assessments such as the Global Stocktake.

Widespread missing super-emitters of nitrogen oxides across China inferred from year-round satellite observations

Nitrogen oxides (NO_x ≡ NO + NO₂) play a central role in air pollution and are targeted for emission mitigation by environmental protection agencies globally. Unique challenges for mitigation are presented by super-emitters, typically with the potential to dominate localized NO_x budgets. Nevertheless, identifying super-emitters still challenges emission mitigation, while the spatial resolution of emission monitoring rises continuously. Here we develop an efficient, super-resolution (1 × 1 km²) inverse model based on year-round TROPOMI satellite observations over China. Consequently, we resolve hundreds of super-emitters in virtually every corner of China, even in remote and mountainous areas. They are attributed to individual plants or parks, mostly associated with industrial sectors, like energy, petrochemical, and iron and steel industries. State-of-the-art bottom-up emission estimates (i.e., MEICv1.3 and HTAPv2), as well as classic top-down inverse methods (e.g., a CTM coupled with the Ensemble Kalman Filter), do not adequately identify these super-emitters. Remarkably, more than one hundred super-emitters are unambiguously missed, while the establishments or discontinuations of the super-emitters potentially lead to under- or over-estimates, respectively. Moreover, evidence shows that these super-emitters generally dominate the NO_x budget in a localized area (e.g., equivalent to a spatial scale of a medium-sized county). Although our dataset is incomplete nationwide due to the undetectable super-emitters on top of high pollution, our results imply that super-emitters contribute significantly to national NO_x budgets and thus suggest the necessity to address the NO_x budget by revisiting super-emitters on a large scale. Integrating the results we obtain here with a multi-tiered observation system can lead to identification and mitigation of anomalous NO_x emissions.

High urban NOx triggers a substantial chemical downward flux of ozone

Nitrogen oxides (NOx) play a central role in catalyzing tropospheric ozone formation. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has recently reemerged as a key target for air pollution control measures, and observational evidence points toward a limited understanding of ozone in high-NOx environments. A complete understanding of the mechanisms controlling the rapid atmospheric cycling between ozone (O3)-nitric oxide (NO)-NO2 in high-NOx regimes at the surface is therefore paramount but remains challenging because of competing dynamical and chemical effects. Here, we present long-term eddy covariance measurements of O3, NO, and NO2, over an urban area, that allow disentangling important physical and chemical processes. When generalized, our findings suggest that the depositional O3 flux near the surface in urban environments is negligible compared to the flux caused by chemical conversion of O3. This leads to an underestimation of the Leighton ratio and is a key process for modulating urban NO2 mixing ratios. As a consequence, primary NO2 emissions have been significantly overestimated.

Daily Satellite Observations of Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution Inequality in New York City, New York and Newark, New Jersey: Evaluation and Application

Urban air pollution disproportionately harms communities of color and low-income communities in the U.S. Intraurban nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) inequalities can be observed from space using the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). Past research has relied on time-averaged measurements, limiting our understanding of how neighborhood-level NO₂ inequalities co-vary with urban air quality and climate. Here, we use fine-scale (250 m × 250 m) airborne NO₂ remote sensing to demonstrate that daily TROPOMI observations resolve a major portion of census tract-scale NO₂ inequalities in the New York City-Newark urbanized area. Spatiotemporally coincident TROPOMI and airborne inequalities are well correlated (r = 0.82-0.97), with slopes of 0.82-1.05 for relative and 0.76-0.96 for absolute inequalities for different groups. We calculate daily TROPOMI NO₂ inequalities over May 2018-September 2021, reporting disparities of 25-38% with race, ethnicity, and/or household income. Mean daily inequalities agree with results based on TROPOMI measurements oversampled to 0.01° × 0.01° to within associated uncertainties. Individual and mean daily TROPOMI NO₂ inequalities are largely insensitive to pixel size, at least when pixels are smaller than ∼60 km², but are sensitive to low observational coverage. We statistically analyze daily NO₂ inequalities, presenting empirical evidence of the systematic overburdening of communities of color and low-income neighborhoods with polluting sources, regulatory ozone co-benefits, and worsened NO₂ inequalities and cumulative NO₂ and urban heat burdens with climate change.

A synthesis of nitric oxide emissions across global fertilized croplands from crop-specific emission factors

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer application to agricultural soils results in substantial emissions of nitric oxide (NO), a key substance in tropospheric chemistry involved in climate forcing and air pollution. However, the estimates of global cropland NO emissions remain uncertain due to a lack of information on direct NO emission factors (EF_d s) of applied N for various cropping systems at seasonal or annual scales. Here we quantified the crop-specific seasonal and annual-scale NO EF_d s through synthesizing 1094 measurements from 125 field-based studies worldwide. The global mean crop-specific seasonal EF_d was 0.53%, with the highest for vegetables (0.75%). Among cereal crops, the EF_d of maize (0.45%) or wheat (0.47%) was about three times higher than for rice (0.12%). At annual scale, the mean EF_d across all cropping systems was 0.58%, with tea plantations having the highest (1.54%). For other cropping systems, the annual-scale EF_d s ranged from 0.02% to 1.07%. Besides crop type, also soil organic carbon, total N, and pH as well as N fertilizer type were the main factors explaining the variations of NO EF_d s. Based on obtained specific EF_d s for each crop type, we estimated that NO emissions due to the use of synthetic fertilizers from global croplands are about 0.42-0.62 Tg N year^-1 . Our budgets are relatively lower if compared to estimates derived by the use of IPCC defaults for NO emissions (0.72-1.66 Tg N year^-1 ) or reported elsewhere (0.67-1.04 Tg N year^-1 ). In our estimates, cash crops (vegetable, tea and orchard), which cover only 9% of the world cropland area, contributed about 31% to total NO emissions from global fertilized croplands. Overall, our meta-analysis provides improved crop-specific NO EF_d s reflecting current stage of knowledge. The work also highlights the relative importance of cash crop production as sources for atmospheric NO, that is, agricultural systems on which mitigation efforts may focus.

Changes in the ozone chemical regime over the contiguous United States inferred by the inversion of NOx and VOC emissions using satellite observation

To investigate changes in the ozone (O3) chemical production regime over the contiguous United States (CONUS) with accurate knowledge of concentrations of its precursors, we applied an inverse modeling technique with Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total formaldehyde (HCHO) retrieval products in the summers of 2011, 2014, and 2017, years in which United States National Emission Inventory were based. The inclusion of dynamic chemical lateral boundary conditions and lightning-induced nitric oxide emissions significantly account for the contribution of background sources in the free troposphere. Satellite-constrained nitrogen oxide (NOx) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions mitigate the discrepancy between satellite and modeled columns: the inversion suggested 2.33-2.84 (1.07-1.34) times higher NOx over the CONUS (over urban regions) and 0.28-0.81 times fewer NMVOCs emissions over the southeastern United States. The model-derived HCHO/NO2 column ratio shows gradual spatial changes in the O3 production regime near urban cores relative to previously defined threshold values representing NOx and VOC sensitive conditions. We also found apparent shifts from the NOx-saturated regime to the transition regime (or the transition regime to the NOx-limited regime) over the major cities in the western United States. In contrast, rural areas, especially in the east-southeastern United States, exhibit a decreased HCHO/NO2 column ratio by -1.30 ± 1.71 with a reduction in HCHO column primarily driven by meteorology, becoming sensitive to VOC emissions. Results show that incorporating satellite observations into numerical modeling could help policymakers implement appropriate emission control policies for O3 pollution.

CO Fluxes in Western Europe during 2017–2020 Winter Seasons Inverted by WRF-Chem/Data Assimilation Research Testbed with MOPITT Observations

The study of anthropogenic carbon monoxide (CO) emissions is crucial to investigate anthropogenic activities. Assuming the anthropogenic CO emissions accounted for the super majority of the winter CO fluxes in western Europe, they could be roughly estimated by the inversion approach. The CO fluxes and concentrations of four consecutive winter seasons (i.e., December–February) in western Europe since 2017 were estimated by a regional CO flux inversion system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The CO retrievals from the Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere instrument (MOPITT) version 8 level 2 multi-spectral Thermal InfraRed (TIR)/Near-InfraRed (NIR) CO retrieval data products were assimilated by the inversion system. The analyses of the MOPITT data used by the inversion system indicated that the mean averaging kernel row sums of the surface level was about 0.25, and the difference percentage of the surface-level retrievals relative to a priori CO-mixing ratios was 14.79%, which was similar to that of the other levels. These results suggested the MOPITT’s surface-level observations contained roughly the same amount of information as the other levels. The inverted CO fluxes of the four winter seasons were 6198.15 kilotons, 4939.72 kilotons, 4697.80 kilotons, and 5456.19 kilotons, respectively. Based on the assumption, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) inventories were used to evaluate the accuracy of the inverted CO fluxes. The evaluation results indicated that the differences between the inverted CO fluxes and UNFCCC inventories of the three winter seasons of 2017–2019 were 13.36%, −4.59%, and −4.76%, respectively. Detailed surface-CO concentrations and XCO comparative analyses between the experimental results and the external Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem) results and the MOPITT data were conducted. The comparative analysis results indicated that the experimental results of the winter season of 2017 were obviously affected by high boundary conditions. The CO concentrations results of the experiments were also evaluated by the CO observation data from Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS), the average Mean Bias Error (MBE), and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the CO concentrations results of the inversion system, and the ICOS observations were −22.43 ppb and 57.59 ppb, respectively. The MBE and RMSE of the inversion system were 17.53-ppb and 4.17-ppb better than those of the simulation-only parallel experiments, respectively.

Carbon Monoxide Emissions from the Washington, DC, and Baltimore Metropolitan Area: Recent Trend and COVID-19 Anomaly

We analyze airborne measurements of atmospheric CO concentration from 70 flights conducted over six years (2015-2020) using an inverse model to quantify the CO emissions from the Washington, DC, and Baltimore metropolitan areas. We found that CO emissions have been declining in the area at a rate of ≈-4.5 % a^-1 since 2015 or ≈-3.1 % a^-1 since 2016. In addition, we found that CO emissions show a "Sunday" effect, with emissions being lower, on average, than for the rest of the week and that the seasonal cycle is no larger than 16 %. Our results also show that the trend derived from the NEI agrees well with the observed trend, but that NEI daytime-adjusted emissions are ≈50 % larger than our estimated emissions. In 2020, measurements collected during the shutdown in activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic indicate a significant drop in CO emissions of 16 % relative to the expected emissions trend from the previous years, or 23 % relative to the mean of 2016 to February 2020. Our results also indicate a larger reduction in April than in May. Last, we show that this reduction in CO emissions was driven mainly by a reduction in traffic.

Counterfactual time series analysis of short-term change in air pollution following the COVID-19 state of emergency in the United States

Lockdown measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic produced sudden behavioral changes. We implement counterfactual time series analysis based on seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models (SARIMA), to examine the extent of air pollution reduction attained following state-level emergency declarations. We also investigate whether these reductions occurred everywhere in the US, and the local factors (geography, population density, and sources of emission) that drove them. Following state-level emergency declarations, we found evidence of a statistically significant decrease in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels in 34 of the 36 states and in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels in 16 of the 48 states that were investigated. The lockdown produced a decrease of up to 3.4 µg/m3 in PM2.5 (observed in California) with range (- 2.3, 3.4) and up to 11.6 ppb in NO2 (observed in Nevada) with range (- 0.6, 11.6). The state of emergency was declared at different dates for different states, therefore the period "before" the state of emergency in our analysis ranged from 8 to 10 weeks and the corresponding "after" period ranged from 8 to 6 weeks. These changes in PM2.5 and NO2 represent a substantial fraction of the annual mean National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of 12 µg/m3 and 53 ppb, respectively. As expected, we also found evidence that states with a higher percentage of mobile source emissions (obtained from 2014) experienced a greater decline in NO2 levels after the lockdown. Although the socioeconomic restrictions are not sustainable, our results provide a benchmark to estimate the extent of achievable air pollution reductions. Identification of factors contributing to pollutant reduction can help guide state-level policies to sustainably reduce air pollution.

Societal shifts due to COVID-19 reveal large-scale complexities and feedbacks between atmospheric chemistry and climate change

The COVID-19 global pandemic and associated government lockdowns dramatically altered human activity, providing a window into how changes in individual behavior, enacted en masse, impact atmospheric composition. The resulting reductions in anthropogenic activity represent an unprecedented event that yields a glimpse into a future where emissions to the atmosphere are reduced. Furthermore, the abrupt reduction in emissions during the lockdown periods led to clearly observable changes in atmospheric composition, which provide direct insight into feedbacks between the Earth system and human activity. While air pollutants and greenhouse gases share many common anthropogenic sources, there is a sharp difference in the response of their atmospheric concentrations to COVID-19 emissions changes, due in large part to their different lifetimes. Here, we discuss several key takeaways from modeling and observational studies. First, despite dramatic declines in mobility and associated vehicular emissions, the atmospheric growth rates of greenhouse gases were not slowed, in part due to decreased ocean uptake of CO2 and a likely increase in CH4 lifetime from reduced NO x emissions. Second, the response of O3 to decreased NO x emissions showed significant spatial and temporal variability, due to differing chemical regimes around the world. Finally, the overall response of atmospheric composition to emissions changes is heavily modulated by factors including carbon-cycle feedbacks to CH4 and CO2, background pollutant levels, the timing and location of emissions changes, and climate feedbacks on air quality, such as wildfires and the ozone climate penalty.

COVID-19 lockdowns drive decline in active fires in southeastern United States

The coronavirus pandemic, COVID-19, led to strict social-distancing guidelines that severely impacted human livelihood and economic activity. Workplace closures reduced travel, and early in spring 2020, improvements in air and water quality, reduced seismic activity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions were observed. COVID-19–related shutdowns emerged at the beginning of the prescribed fire season in the southeastern United States, where 80% of fires are human caused. Using active fire satellite observations and fuel treatment statistics, we estimated a 21% reduction in active fires from March to December 2020 (up to 40% on federal lands). This reduction in active fire may increase fire risk in the future and is detrimental to biodiversity and other ecosystem services inherent to fire-dependent ecosystems.

Fire is a common ecosystem process in forests and grasslands worldwide. Increasingly, ignitions are controlled by human activities either through suppression of wildfires or intentional ignition of prescribed fires. The southeastern United States leads the nation in prescribed fire, burning ca. 80% of the country’s extent annually. The COVID-19 pandemic radically changed human behavior as workplaces implemented social-distancing guidelines and provided an opportunity to evaluate relationships between humans and fire as fire management plans were postponed or cancelled. Using active fire data from satellite-based observations, we found that in the southeastern United States, COVID-19 led to a 21% reduction in fire activity compared to the 2003 to 2019 average. The reduction was more pronounced for federally managed lands, up to 41% below average compared to the past 20 y (38% below average compared to the past decade). Declines in fire activity were partly affected by an unusually wet February before the COVID-19 shutdown began in mid-March 2020. Despite the wet spring, the predicted number of active fire detections was still lower than expected, confirming a COVID-19 signal on ignitions. In addition, prescribed fire management statistics reported by US federal agencies confirmed the satellite observations and showed that, following the wet February and before the mid-March COVID-19 shutdown, cumulative burned area was approaching record highs across the region. With fire return intervals in the southeastern United States as frequent as 1 to 2 y, COVID-19 fire impacts will contribute to an increasing backlog in necessary fire management activities, affecting biodiversity and future fire danger.

Volatile chemical product emissions enhance ozone and modulate urban chemistry

Decades of air quality improvements have substantially reduced the motor vehicle emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Today, volatile chemical products (VCPs) are responsible for half of the petrochemical VOCs emitted in major urban areas. We show that VCP emissions are ubiquitous in US and European cities and scale with population density. We report significant VCP emissions for New York City (NYC), including a monoterpene flux of 14.7 to 24.4 kg ⋅ d^-1 ⋅ km^-2 from fragranced VCPs and other anthropogenic sources, which is comparable to that of a summertime forest. Photochemical modeling of an extreme heat event, with ozone well in excess of US standards, illustrates the significant impact of VCPs on air quality. In the most populated regions of NYC, ozone was sensitive to anthropogenic VOCs (AVOCs), even in the presence of biogenic sources. Within this VOC-sensitive regime, AVOCs contributed upwards of ∼20 ppb to maximum 8-h average ozone. VCPs accounted for more than 50% of this total AVOC contribution. Emissions from fragranced VCPs, including personal care and cleaning products, account for at least 50% of the ozone attributed to VCPs. We show that model simulations of ozone depend foremost on the magnitude of VCP emissions and that the addition of oxygenated VCP chemistry impacts simulations of key atmospheric oxidation products. NYC is a case study for developed megacities, and the impacts of VCPs on local ozone are likely similar for other major urban regions across North America or Europe.

Quantifying Methane and Ozone Precursor Emissions from Oil and Gas Production Regions across the Contiguous US

We present an updated fuel-based oil and gas (FOG) inventory with estimates of nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from oil and natural gas production in the contiguous US (CONUS). We compare the FOG inventory with aircraft-derived ("top-down") emissions for NO_x over footprints that account for ∼25% of US oil and natural gas production. Across CONUS, we find that the bottom-up FOG inventory combined with other anthropogenic emissions is on average within ∼10% of top-down aircraft-derived NO_x emissions. We also find good agreement in the trends of NO_x from drilling- and production-phase activities, as inferred by satellites and in the bottom-up inventory. Leveraging tracer-tracer relationships derived from aircraft observations, methane (CH₄) and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions have been added to the inventory. Our total CONUS emission estimates for 2015 of oil and natural gas are 0.45 ± 0.14 Tg NO_x/yr, 15.2 ± 3.0 Tg CH₄/yr, and 5.7 ± 1.7 Tg NMVOC/yr. Compared to the US National Emissions Inventory and Greenhouse Gas Inventory, FOG NO_x emissions are ∼40% lower, while inferred CH₄ and NMVOC emissions are up to a factor of ∼2 higher. This suggests that NMVOC/NO_x emissions from oil and gas basins are ∼3 times higher than current estimates and will likely affect how air quality models represent ozone formation downwind of oil and gas fields.

Coupled Air Quality and Boundary-Layer Meteorology in Western U.S. Basins during Winter: Design and Rationale for a Comprehensive Study

Wintertime episodes of high aerosol concentrations occur frequently in urban and agricultural basins and valleys worldwide. These episodes often arise following development of persistent cold-air pools (PCAPs) that limit mixing and modify chemistry. While field campaigns targeting either basin meteorology or wintertime pollution chemistry have been conducted, coupling between interconnected chemical and meteorological processes remains an insufficiently studied research area. Gaps in understanding the coupled chemical-meteorological interactions that drive high pollution events make identification of the most effective air-basin specific emission control strategies challenging. To address this, a September 2019 workshop occurred with the goal of planning a future research campaign to investigate air quality in Western U.S. basins. Approximately 120 people participated, representing 50 institutions and 5 countries. Workshop participants outlined the rationale and design for a comprehensive wintertime study that would couple atmospheric chemistry and boundary-layer and complex-terrain meteorology within western U.S. basins. Participants concluded the study should focus on two regions with contrasting aerosol chemistry: three populated valleys within Utah (Salt Lake, Utah, and Cache Valleys) and the San Joaquin Valley in California. This paper describes the scientific rationale for a campaign that will acquire chemical and meteorological datasets using airborne platforms with extensive range, coupled to surface-based measurements focusing on sampling within the near-surface boundary layer, and transport and mixing processes within this layer, with high vertical resolution at a number of representative sites. No prior wintertime basin-focused campaign has provided the breadth of observations necessary to characterize the meteorological-chemical linkages outlined here, nor to validate complex processes within coupled atmosphere-chemistry models.

Global tropospheric ozone responses to reduced NO x emissions linked to the COVID-19 worldwide lockdowns

Efforts to stem the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to rapid, global ancillary reductions in air pollutant emissions. Here, we quantify the impact on tropospheric ozone using a multiconstituent chemical data assimilation system. Anthropogenic NO x emissions dropped by at least 15% globally and 18 to 25% regionally in April and May 2020, which decreased free tropospheric ozone by up to 5 parts per billion, consistent with independent satellite observations. The global total tropospheric ozone burden declined by 6TgO3 (∼2%) in May and June 2020, largely due to emission reductions in Asia and the Americas that were amplified by regionally high ozone production efficiencies (up to 4 TgO3/TgN). Our results show that COVID-19 mitigation left a global atmospheric imprint that altered atmospheric oxidative capacity and climate radiative forcing, providing a test of the efficacy of NO x emissions controls for co-benefiting air quality and climate.

US COVID-19 Shutdown Demonstrates Importance of Background NO2 in Inferring NOx Emissions From Satellite NO2 Observations

Satellite nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measurements are used extensively to infer nitrogen oxide emissions and their trends, but interpretation can be complicated by background contributions to the NO2 column sensed from space. We use the step decrease of US anthropogenic emissions from the COVID-19 shutdown to compare the responses of NO2 concentrations observed at surface network sites and from satellites (Ozone Monitoring Instrument [OMI], Tropospheric Ozone Monitoring Instrument [TROPOMI]). After correcting for differences in meteorology, surface NO2 measurements for 2020 show decreases of 20% in March-April and 10% in May-August compared to 2019. The satellites show much weaker responses in March-June and no decrease in July-August, consistent with a large background contribution to the NO2 column. Inspection of the long-term OMI trend over remote US regions shows a rising summertime NO2 background from 2010 to 2019 potentially attributable to wildfires.

Evaluation of Nitrogen Oxide Emission Inventories and Trends for On-Road Gasoline and Diesel Vehicles

On-road vehicles continue to be a major source of nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions in the United States and in other countries around the world. The goal of this study is to compare and evaluate emission inventories and long-term trends in vehicular NO_x emissions. Taxable fuel sales data and in-use measurements of emission factors are combined to generate fuel-based NO_x emission inventories for California and the US over the period 1990-2020. While gasoline and diesel fuel sales increased over the last three decades, total on-road NO_x emissions declined by approximately 70% since 1990, with a steeper rate of decrease after 2004 when heavy-duty diesel NO_x emission controls finally started to gain traction. In California, additional steps have been taken to accelerate the introduction of new heavy-duty engines equipped with selective catalytic reduction systems, resulting in a 48% decrease in diesel NO_x emissions in California compared to a 32% decrease nationally since 2010. California EMFAC model predictions are in good agreement with fuel-based inventory results for gasoline engines and are higher than fuel-based estimates for diesel engines prior to the mid-2010s. Similar to the findings of recent observational and modeling studies, there are discrepancies between the fuel-based inventory and national MOVES model estimates. MOVES predicts a steeper decrease in NO_x emissions and predicts higher NO_x emissions from gasoline engines over the entire period from 1990 to 2020.

Impacts of Soil NOx Emission on O3 Air Quality in Rural California

Nitrogen oxides (NO_x) are a key precursor in O₃ formation. Although stringent anthropogenic NO_x emission controls have been implemented since the early 2000s in the United States, several rural regions of California still suffer from O₃ pollution. Previous findings suggest that soils are a dominant source of NO_x emissions in California; however, a statewide assessment of the impacts of soil NO_x emission (SNO_x) on air quality is still lacking. Here we quantified the contribution of SNO_x to the NO_x budget and the effects of SNO_x on surface O₃ in California during summer by using WRF-Chem with an updated SNO_x scheme, the Berkeley Dalhousie Iowa Soil NO Parameterization (BDISNP). The model with BDISNP shows a better agreement with TROPOMI NO₂ columns, giving confidence in the SNO_x estimates. We estimate that 40.1% of the state's total NO_x emissions in July 2018 are from soils, and SNO_x could exceed anthropogenic sources over croplands, which accounts for 50.7% of NO_x emissions. Such considerable amounts of SNO_x enhance the monthly mean NO₂ columns by 34.7% (53.3%) and surface NO₂ concentrations by 176.5% (114.0%), leading to an additional 23.0% (23.2%) of surface O₃ concentration in California (cropland). Our results highlight the cobenefits of limiting SNO_x to help improve air quality and human health in rural California.

Four Decades of United States Mobile Source Pollutants: Spatial-Temporal Trends Assessed by Ground-Based Monitors, Air Quality Models, and Satellites

On-road emissions sources degrade air quality, and these sources have been highly regulated. Epidemiological and environmental justice studies often use road proximity as a proxy for traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) exposure, and other studies employ air quality models or satellite observations. To assess these metrics' abilities to reproduce observed near-road concentration gradients and changes over time, we apply a hierarchical linear regression to ground-based observations, long-term air quality model simulations using Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), and satellite products. Across 1980-2019, observed TRAP concentrations decreased, and road proximity was positively correlated with TRAP. For all pollutants, concentrations decreased fastest at locations with higher road proximity, resulting in "flatter" concentration fields in recent years. This flattening unfolded at a relatively constant rate for NOx, whereas the flattening of CO concentration fields has slowed. CMAQ largely captures observed spatial-temporal NO2 trends across 2002-2010 but overstates the relationships between CO and elemental carbon fine particulate matter (EC) road proximity. Satellite NOx measures overstate concentration reductions near roads. We show how this perspective provides evidence that California's on-road vehicle regulations led to substantial decreases in NO2, NOx, and EC in California, with other states that adopted California's light-duty automobile standards showing mixed benefits over states that did not adopt these standards.

Transboundary transport of ozone pollution to a US border region: A case study of Yuma

High concentrations of ground-level ozone affect human health, plants, and animals. Reducing ozone pollution in rural regions, where local emissions are already low, poses challenge. We use meteorological back-trajectories, air quality model sensitivity analysis, and satellite remote sensing data to investigate the ozone sources in Yuma, Arizona and find strong international influences from Northern Mexico on 12 out of 16 ozone exceedance days. We find that such exceedances could not be mitigated by reducing emissions in Arizona; complete removal of state emissions would reduce the maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone in Yuma by only 0.7% on exceeding days. In contrast, emissions in Mexico are estimated to contribute to 11% of the ozone during these exceedances, and their reduction would reduce MDA8 ozone in Yuma to below the standard. Using satellite-based remote sensing measurements, we find that emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx, a key photochemical precursor of ozone) increase slightly in Mexico from 2005 to 2016, opposite to decreases shown in the bottom-up inventory. In comparison, a decrease of NOx emissions in the US and meteorological factors lead to an overall of summer mean and annual MDA8 ozone in Yuma (by ∼1-4% and ∼3%, respectively). Analysis of meteorological back-trajectories also shows similar transboundary transport of ozone at the US-Mexico border in California and New Mexico, where strong influences from Northern Mexico coincide with 11 out of 17 and 6 out of 8 ozone exceedances. 2020 is the final year of the U.S.-Mexico Border 2020 Program, which aimed to reduce pollution at border regions of the US and Mexico. Our results indicate the importance of sustaining a substantial cooperative program to improve air quality at the border area.

Impacts of Traffic Reductions Associated With COVID-19 on Southern California Air Quality

On 19 March 2020, California put in place Stay-At-Home orders to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. As a result, decreases up to 50% in traffic occurred across the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). We report that, compared to the 19 March to 30 June period of the last 5 years, the 2020 concentrations of PM2.5 and NO x showed an overall reduction across the basin. O3 concentrations decreased in the western part of the basin and generally increased in the downwind areas. The NO x decline in 2020 (approximately 27% basin-wide) is in addition to ongoing declines over the last two decades (on average 4% less than the -6.8% per year afternoon NO2 concentration decrease) and provides insight into how air quality may respond over the next few years of continued vehicular reductions. The modest changes in O3 suggests additional mitigation will be necessary to comply with air quality standards.

Nitrogen cycling microbiomes are structured by plant mycorrhizal associations with consequences for nitrogen oxide fluxes in forests

Volatile nitrogen oxides (N2 O, NO, NO2 , HONO, …) can negatively impact climate, air quality, and human health. Using soils collected from temperate forests across the eastern United States, we show microbial communities involved in nitrogen (N) cycling are structured, in large part, by the composition of overstory trees, leading to predictable N-cycling syndromes, with consequences for emissions of volatile nitrogen oxides to air. Trees associating with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi promote soil microbial communities with higher N-cycle potential and activity, relative to microbial communities in soils dominated by trees associating with ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi. Metagenomic analysis and gene expression studies reveal a 5 and 3.5 times greater estimated N-cycle gene and transcript copy numbers, respectively, in AM relative to ECM soil. Furthermore, we observe a 60% linear decrease in volatile reactive nitrogen gas flux (NOy  ≡ NO, NO2 , HONO) as ECM tree abundance increases. Compared to oxic conditions, gas flux potential of N2 O and NO increase significantly under anoxic conditions for AM soil (30- and 120-fold increase), but not ECM soil-likely owing to small concentrations of available substrate ( NO 3 - ) in ECM soil. Linear mixed effects modeling shows that ECM tree abundance, microbial process rates, and geographic location are primarily responsible for variation in peak potential NOy flux. Given that nearly all tree species associate with either AM or ECM fungi, our results indicate that the consequences of tree species shifts associated with global change may have predictable consequences for soil N cycling.

Daily Cropland Soil NOx Emissions Identified by TROPOMI and SMAP

We use TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument) tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measurements to identify cropland soil nitrogen oxide (NOx = NO + NO2) emissions at daily to seasonal scales in the U.S. Southern Mississippi River Valley. Evaluating 1.5 years of TROPOMI observations with a box model, we observe seasonality in local NOx enhancements and estimate maximum cropland soil NOx emissions (15-34 ng N m-2 s-1) early in growing season (May-June). We observe soil NOx pulsing in response to daily decreases in volumetric soil moisture (VSM) as measured by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite. Daily NO2 enhancements reach up to 0.8 × 1015 molecules cm-2 4-8 days after precipitation when VSM decreases to ~30%, reflecting emissions behavior distinct from previously defined soil NOx pulse events. This demonstrates that TROPOMI NO2 observations, combined with observations of underlying process controls (e.g., soil moisture), can constrain soil NOx processes from space.

Changes in air quality and human mobility in the USA during the COVID-19 pandemic

The first goal of this study is to quantify the magnitude and spatial variability of air quality changes in the USA during the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus on two pollutants that are federally regulated, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). NO2 and PM2.5 are both primary and secondary pollutants, meaning that they can be emitted either directly into the atmosphere or indirectly from chemical reactions of emitted precursors. NO2 is emitted during fuel combustion by all motor vehicles and airplanes. PM2.5 is emitted by airplanes and, among motor vehicles, mostly by diesel vehicles, such as commercial heavy-duty diesel trucks. Both PM2.5 and NO2 are also emitted by fossil-fuel power plants, although PM2.5 almost exclusively by coal power plants. Observed concentrations at all available ground monitoring sites (240 and 480 for NO2 and PM2.5, respectively) were compared between April 2020, the month during which the majority of US states had introduced some measure of social distancing (e.g., business and school closures, shelter-in-place, quarantine), and April of the prior 5 years, 2015-2019, as the baseline. Large, statistically significant decreases in NO2 concentrations were found at more than 65% of the monitoring sites, with an average drop of 2 parts per billion (ppb) when compared to the mean of the previous 5 years. The same patterns are confirmed by satellite-derived NO2 column totals from NASA OMI, which showed an average drop in 2020 by 13% over the entire country when compared to the mean of the previous 5 years. PM2.5 concentrations from the ground monitoring sites, however, were not significantly lower in 2020 than those in the past 5 years and were more likely to be higher than lower in April 2020 when compared with those in the previous 5 years. After correcting for the decreasing multi-annual concentration trends, the net effect of COVID-19 at the ground stations in April 2020 was a reduction in NO2 concentrations by - 1.3ppb and a slight increase in PM2.5 concentrations by + 0.28 μg/m3. The second goal of this study is to explain the different responses of these two pollutants, i.e., NO2 was significantly reduced but PM2.5 was nearly unaffected, during the COVID-19 pandemic. The hypothesis put forward is that the shelter-in-place measures affected people's driving patterns most dramatically, thus passenger vehicle NO2 emissions were reduced. Commercial vehicles (generally diesel) and electricity demand for all purposes remained relatively unchanged, thus PM2.5 concentrations did not drop significantly. To establish a correlation between the observed NO2 changes and the extent to which people were actually sheltering in place, thus driving less, we used a mobility index, which was produced and made public by Descartes Labs. This mobility index aggregates cell phone usage at the county level to capture changes in human movement over time. We found a strong correlation between the observed decreases in NO2 concentrations and decreases in human mobility, with over 4 ppb decreases in the monthly average where mobility was reduced to near 0 and around 1 ppb decrease where mobility was reduced to 20% of normal or less. By contrast, no discernible pattern was detected between mobility and PM2.5 concentrations changes, suggesting that decreases in personal-vehicle traffic alone may not be effective at reducing PM2.5 pollution.

Significant changes in the chemical compositions and sources of PM2.5 in Wuhan since the city lockdown as COVID-19

Wuhan was the first city to adopt the lockdown measures to prevent COVID-19 spreading, which improved the air quality accordingly. This study investigated the variations in chemical compositions, source contributions, and regional transport of fine particles (PM2.5) during January 23-February 22 of 2020, compared with the same period in 2019. The average mass concentration of PM2.5 decreased from 72.9 μg m-3 (2019) to 45.9 μg m-3 (2020), by 27.0 μg m-3. It was predominantly contributed by the emission reduction (92.0%), retrieved from a random forest tree approach. The main chemical species of PM2.5 all decreased with the reductions ranging from 0.85 μg m-3 (chloride) to 9.86 μg m-3 (nitrate) (p < 0.01). Positive matrix factorization model indicated that the mass contributions of seven PM2.5 sources all decreased. However, their contribution percentages varied from -11.0% (industrial processes) to 8.70% (secondary inorganic aerosol). Source contributions of PM2.5 transported from potential geographical regions showed reductions with mean values ranging from 0.22 to 4.36 μg m-3. However, increased contributions of firework burning, secondary inorganic aerosol, road dust, and vehicle emissions from transboundary transport were observed. This study highlighted the complex and nonlinear response of chemical compositions and sources of PM2.5 to air pollution control measures, suggesting the importance of regional-joint control.

Observing Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution Inequality Using High-Spatial-Resolution Remote Sensing Measurements in Houston, Texas

Houston, Texas is a major U.S. urban and industrial area where poor air quality is unevenly distributed and a disproportionate share is located in low-income, non-white, and Hispanic neighborhoods. We have traditionally lacked city-wide observations to fully describe these spatial heterogeneities in Houston and in cities globally, especially for reactive gases like nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). Here, we analyze novel high-spatial-resolution (250 m × 500 m) NO₂ vertical columns measured by the NASA GCAS airborne spectrometer as part of the September-2013 NASA DISCOVER-AQ mission and discuss differences in population-weighted NO₂ at the census-tract level. Based on the average of 35 repeated flight circuits, we find 37 ± 6% higher NO₂ for non-whites and Hispanics living in low-income tracts (LIN) compared to whites living in high-income tracts (HIW) and report NO₂ disparities separately by race ethnicity (11-32%) and poverty status (15-28%). We observe substantial time-of-day and day-to-day variability in LIN-HIW NO₂ differences (and in other metrics) driven by the greater prevalence of NO_x (≡NO + NO₂) emission sources in low-income, non-white, and Hispanic neighborhoods. We evaluate measurements from the recently launched satellite sensor TROPOMI (3.5 km × 7 km at nadir), averaged to 0.01° × 0.01° using physics-based oversampling, and demonstrate that TROPOMI resolves similar relative, but not absolute, tract-level differences compared to GCAS. We utilize the high-resolution FIVE and NEI NO_x inventories, plus one year of TROPOMI weekday-weekend variability, to attribute tract-level NO₂ disparities to industrial sources and heavy-duty diesel trucking. We show that GCAS and TROPOMI spatial patterns correspond to the surface patterns measured using aircraft profiling and surface monitors. We discuss opportunities for satellite remote sensing to inform decision making in cities generally.

Inferring Changes in Summertime Surface Ozone-NOx-VOC Chemistry over U.S. Urban Areas from Two Decades of Satellite and Ground-Based Observations

Urban ozone (O₃) formation can be limited by NO_x, VOCs, or both, complicating the design of effective O₃ abatement plans. A satellite-retrieved ratio of formaldehyde to NO₂ (HCHO/NO₂), developed from theory and modeling, has previously been used to indicate O₃ formation chemistry. Here, we connect this space-based indicator to spatiotemporal variations in O₃ recorded by on-the-ground monitors over major U.S. cities. High-O₃ events vary nonlinearly with OMI HCHO and NO₂, and the transition from VOC-limited to NO_x-limited O₃ formation regimes occurs at higher HCHO/NO₂ value (3 to 4) than previously determined from models, with slight intercity variations. To extend satellite records back to 1996, we develop an approach to harmonize observations from GOME and SCIAMACHY that accounts for differences in spatial resolution and overpass time. Two-decade (1996-2016) multisatellite HCHO/NO₂ captures the timing and location of the transition from VOC-limited to NO_x-limited O₃ production regimes in major U.S. cities, which aligns with the observed long-term changes in urban-rural gradient of O₃ and the reversal of O₃ weekend effect. Our findings suggest promise for applying space-based HCHO/NO₂ to interpret local O₃ chemistry, particularly with the new-generation satellite instruments that offer finer spatial and temporal resolution.

Direct observation of changing NO x lifetime in North American cities

NO _x lifetime relates nonlinearly to its own concentration; therefore, by observing how NO _x lifetime changes with changes in its concentration, inferences can be made about the dominant chemistry occurring in an urban plume. We used satellite observations of NO₂ from a new high-resolution product to show that NO _x lifetime in approximately 30 North American cities has changed between 2005 and 2014 in a manner consistent with our understanding of NO _x chemistry.

Premature mortality related to United States cross-state air pollution

Outdoor air pollution adversely affects human health and is estimated to be responsible for five to ten per cent of the total annual premature mortality in the contiguous United States^1-3. Combustion emissions from a variety of sources, such as power generation or road traffic, make a large contribution to harmful air pollutants such as ozone and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5)⁴. Efforts to mitigate air pollution have focused mainly on the relationship between local emission sources and local air quality². Air quality can also be affected by distant emission sources, however, including emissions from neighbouring federal states^5,6. This cross-state exchange of pollution poses additional regulatory challenges. Here we quantify the exchange of air pollution among the contiguous United States, and assess its impact on premature mortality that is linked to increased human exposure to PM_2.5 and ozone from seven emission sectors for 2005 to 2018. On average, we find that 41 to 53 per cent of air-quality-related premature mortality resulting from a state's emissions occurs outside that state. We also find variations in the cross-state contributions of different emission sectors and chemical species to premature mortality, and changes in these variations over time. Emissions from electric power generation have the greatest cross-state impacts as a fraction of their total impacts, whereas commercial/residential emissions have the smallest. However, reductions in emissions from electric power generation since 2005 have meant that, by 2018, cross-state premature mortality associated with the commercial/residential sector was twice that associated with power generation. In terms of the chemical species emitted, nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide emissions caused the most cross-state premature deaths in 2005, but by 2018 primary PM_2.5 emissions led to cross-state premature deaths equal to three times those associated with sulfur dioxide emissions. These reported shifts in emission sectors and emission species that contribute to premature mortality may help to guide improvements to air quality in the contiguous United States.

The benefits of lower ozone due to air pollution emission reductions (2002-2011) in the Eastern United States during extreme heat

Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program - Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) tool, we estimate the benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011 in the Eastern United States (US) with respect to surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related health and economic impacts, during a month of extreme heat, July 2011. Based on CMAQ simulations using emissions appropriate for 2002 and 2011, we estimate that emission reductions since 2002 likely prevented 10- 15 ozone exceedance days (using the 2011 maximum 8-hr average ozone standard of 75 ppbv) throughout the Ohio River Valley and 5- 10 ozone exceedance days throughout the Washington, DC - Baltimore, MD metropolitan area during this extremely hot month. CMAQ results were fed into the BenMAP-CE tool to determine the health and health-related economic benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011. We estimate that the concomitant health benefits from the ozone reductions were significant for this anomalous month: 160-800 mortalities (95% confidence interval (CI): 70-1,010) were avoided in July 2011 in the Eastern U.S, saving an estimated $1.3-$6.6 billion (CI: $174 million-$15.5 billion). Additionally, we estimate that emission reductions resulted in 950 (CI: 90-2,350) less hospital admissions from respiratory symptoms, 370 (CI: 180-580) less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 (CI: 0-1650) less Emergency Room (ER) visits from asthma symptoms, 922,020 (CI: 469,960-1,370,050) less minor restricted activity days (MRADs), and 430,240 (CI: -280,350-963,190) less symptoms of asthma exacerbation during July 2011.Implications: We estimate the benefits of air pollution emission reductions on surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related impacts on human health and the economy between 2002 and 2011 during an extremely hot month, July 2011, in the eastern United States (US) using the CMAQ and BenMAP-CE models. Results suggest that, during July 2011, emission reductions prevented 10-15 ozone exceedance days in the Ohio River Valley and 5-10 ozone exceedance days in the Mid Atlantic; saved 160-800 lives in the Eastern US, saving $1.3 - $6.5 billion; and resulted in 950 less hospital admissions for respiratory symptoms, 370 less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 less Emergency Room visits for asthma symptoms, 922,020 less minor restricted activity days, and 430,240 less symptoms of asthma exacerbation.

Fine-Scale Columnar and Surface NOx Concentrations over South Korea: Comparison of Surface Monitors, TROPOMI, CMAQ and CAPSS Inventory

Fine-scale nitrogen oxide (NOx) concentrations over South Korea are examined using surface observations, satellite data and high-resolution model simulations based on the latest emission inventory. While accurate information on NOx emissions in South Korea is crucial to understanding regional air quality in the region, consensus on the validation of NOx emissions is lacking. We investigate the spatial and temporal variation in fine-scale NOx emission sources over South Korea. Surface observations and newly available fine-scale satellite data (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument; TROPOMI; 3.5 × 7 km2) are compared with the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model based on the clean air policy support system (CAPSS) 2016 emission inventory. The results show that the TROPOMI NO2 column densities agree well with the CMAQ simulations based on CAPSS emissions (e.g., R = 0.96 for June 2018). The surface observations, satellite data and model are consistent in terms of their spatial distribution, the overestimation over the Seoul Metropolitan Area and major point sources; however, the model tends to underestimate the surface concentrations during the cold season.

Comparison of Near-surface NO2 Pollution with Pandora Total Column NO2 during the Korea-United States Ocean Color (KORUS OC) Campaign

Near-surface air quality (AQ) observations over coastal waters are scarce, a situation that limits our capacity to monitor pollution events at land-water interfaces. Satellite measurements of total column (TC) nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) observations are a useful proxy for combustion sources but the once daily snapshots available from most sensors are insufficient for tracking the diurnal evolution and transport of pollution. Ground-based remote sensors like the Pandora Spectrometer Instrument (PSI) that have been developed to verify space-based total column NO₂ and other trace gases are being tested for routine use as certified AQ monitors. The KORUS-OC (Korea-United States Ocean Color) cruise aboard the R/V Onnuri in May-June 2016 represented an opportunity to study AQ near the South Korean coast, a region affected by both local/regional and long-distance pollution sources. Using PSI data in direct-sun mode and in situ sensors for shipboard ozone, CO and NO₂, we explore, for the first time, relationships between TC NO₂ and surface AQ in this coastal region. Three case studies illustrate the value of the PSI as well as complexities in the surface-column NO₂ relationship caused by varying meteorological conditions. Case Study 1 (25-26 May 2016) exhibited a high correlation of surface NO₂ to TC NO₂ measured by both PSI and Aura's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) but two other cases displayed poor relationships between in situ and TC NO₂ due to decoupling of pollution layers from the surface. With suitable interpretation the PSI TC NO₂ measurement demonstrates good potential for working with upcoming geostationary satellites to advance diurnal tracking of pollution.

Exploiting OMI NO2 satellite observations to infer fossil-fuel CO2 emissions from U.S. megacities

Fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions and their trends in eight U.S. megacities during 2006-2017 are inferred by combining satellite-derived NO_X emissions with bottom-up city-specific NO_X-to-CO₂ emission ratios. A statistical model is fit to a collection NO₂ plumes observed from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and is used to calculate top-down NO_X emissions. Decreases in OMI-derived NO_X emissions are observed across the eight cities from 2006 to 2017 (-17% in Miami to -58% in Los Angeles), and are generally consistent with long-term trends of bottom-up inventories (-25% in Miami to -49% in Los Angeles), but there are some interannual discrepancies. City-specific NO_X-to-CO₂ emission ratios, used to calculate inferred CO₂, are estimated through annual bottom-up inventories of NO_X and CO₂ emissions disaggregated to 1 × 1 km² resolution. Over the study period, NO_X-to-CO₂ emission ratios have decreased by ~40% nationwide (-24% to -51% for our studied cities), which is attributed to a faster reduction in NO_X when compared to CO₂ due to policy regulations and fuel type shifts. Combining top-down NO_X emissions and bottom-up NO_X-to-CO₂ emission ratios, annual fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions are derived. Inferred OMI-based top-down CO₂ emissions trends vary between +7% in Dallas to -31% in Phoenix. For 2017, we report annual fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions to be: Los Angeles 113 ± 49 Tg/yr; New York City 144 ± 62 Tg/yr; and Chicago 55 ± 24 Tg/yr. A study in the Los Angeles area, using independent methods, reported a 2013-2016 average CO₂ emissions rate of 104 Tg/yr and 120 Tg/yr, which suggests that the CO₂ emissions from our method are in good agreement with other studies' top-down estimates. We anticipate future remote sensing instruments - with better spatial and temporal resolution - will better constrain the NO_X-to-CO₂ ratio and reduce the uncertainty in our method.

Uncovering hidden genetic variation in photosynthesis of field-grown maize under ozone pollution

Ozone is the most damaging air pollutant to crops, currently reducing Midwest US maize production by up to 10%, yet there has been very little effort to adapt germplasm for ozone tolerance. Ozone enters plants through stomata, reacts to form reactive oxygen species in the apoplast and ultimately decreases photosynthetic C gain. In this study, 10 diverse inbred parents were crossed in a half-diallel design to create 45 F1 hybrids, which were tested for ozone response in the field using free air concentration enrichment (FACE). Ozone stress increased the heritability of photosynthetic traits and altered genetic correlations among traits. Hybrids from parents Hp301 and NC338 showed greater sensitivity to ozone stress, and disrupted relationships among photosynthetic traits. The physiological responses underlying sensitivity to ozone differed in hybrids from the two parents, suggesting multiple mechanisms of response to oxidative stress. FACE technology was essential to this evaluation because genetic variation in photosynthesis under elevated ozone was not predictable based on performance at ambient ozone. These findings suggest that selection under elevated ozone is needed to identify deleterious alleles in the world's largest commodity crop.

Temporal Analysis of OMI-Observed Tropospheric NO2 Columns over East Asia during 2006–2015

The study analyzed temporal variations of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)-observed NO2 columns, interregional correlation, and comparison between NO2 columns and NOx emissions during the period from 2006 to 2015. Regarding the trend of the NO2 columns, the linear lines were classified into four groups: (1) ‘upward and downward’ over six defined geographic regions in central-east Asia; (2) ‘downward’ over Guangzhou, Japan, and Taiwan; (3) ‘stagnant’ over South Korea; and (4) ‘upward’ over North Korea, Mongolia, Qinghai, and Northwestern Pacific ocean. In particular, the levels of NO2 columns in 2015 returned to those in 2006 over most of the polluted regions in China. Quantitatively, their relative changes in 2015 compared to 2006 were approximately 10%. From the interregional correlation analysis, it was found that unlike positive relationships between the polluted areas, the different variations of monthly NO2 columns led to negative relationships in Mongolia and Qinghai. Regarding the comparison between NO2 columns and NOx emission, the NOx emissions from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS) inventories did not follow the year-to-year variations of NO2 columns over the polluted regions. In addition, the weekly effect was only clearly shown in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, indicating that the amounts of NOx emissions are significantly contributed to by the transportation sector.

Introduction to the virtual special issue monitoring ecological responses to air quality and atmospheric deposition in the Athabasca Oil Sands region the wood Buffalo environmental Association's Forest health monitoring program

The expansion of oil sands resource development in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region in the early 1990's led to concerns regarding the potential ecological and health effects of increased emissions and deposition of acidic substances. Conditions attached to a 1994 approval for an oil sands facility expansion led to the creation of the Wood Buffalo Environmental Association, and its Terrestrial Environmental Effects Monitoring committee. This multi-stakeholder body was tasked with development and operation of an environmental (forest health) monitoring program for the detection of ecological responses to atmospheric emissions and deposition. Initially focused on acid deposition monitoring, jack pine forest, growing on sandy soils with limited acid buffering capacity, was selected as the receptor system. An initial set of 10 monitoring locations was established using the Canadian Acid Rain Network Early Warning System methodology (since increased to 27, with three lost to development). Ecological monitoring is on a 6-year cycle, with concurrent measures of soil, needle and lichen chemistry, and tree and understory condition, together with ongoing measurements of air quality and atmospheric deposition. Because jack pine forest edges facing the emissions sources were expected to be more exposed to acidic emissions, evaluation of stand edge monitoring locations began in 2008. Monitoring of a targeted suite of indicators began in 2012 at 25 jack pine stand edge monitoring sites. This special issue presents the results derived from biophysical sampling campaigns (1998 to 2013), coupled with ongoing ambient atmospheric, deposition and epiphytic lichen monitoring (data through 2017) and source apportionment studies, as well as papers contributed by others engaged in regional research and monitoring programs. The Forest Health Monitoring Program provides data supportive of regulatory and stakeholder evaluations of environmental quality, and is adaptive to new needs, extreme environmental events and technological development while providing continuity of monitoring.

Nitrogen deposition sources and patterns in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem determined from ion exchange resin collectors, lichens, and isotopes

Over the past century, atmospheric nitrogen deposition (N_dep) has increased across the western United States due to agricultural and urban development, resulting in degraded ecosystem quality. Regional patterns of N_dep are often estimated by coupling direct measurements from large-scale monitoring networks and atmospheric chemistry models, but such efforts can be problematic in the western US because of complex terrain and sparse sampling. This study aimed not only to understand N_dep patterns in mountainous ecosystems but also to investigate whether isotope values of lichens and throughfall deposition can be used to determine N_dep sources, and serve as an additional tool in ecosystem health assessments. We measured N_dep amounts and δ¹⁵N in montane conifer forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem using canopy throughfall and bulk monitors and lichens. In addition, we examined patterns of C:N ratios in lichens as a possible indicator of lichen physiological condition. The isotopic signature of δ¹⁵N of N_dep helps to discern emission sources, because δ¹⁵N of NO_x from combustion tends to be high (-5 to +25‰) while NH_x from agricultural sources tends to be comparatively low (-40 to -10‰). Summertime N_dep increased with elevation and ranged from 0.26 to 1.66 kg ha^-1. N_dep was higher than expected in remote areas. The δ¹⁵N values of lichens were typically -15.3 to -10‰ suggesting agriculture as a primary emission source of deposition. Lichen %N, δ¹⁵N and C:N ratios can provide important information about N_dep sources and patterns over small spatial scales in complex terrain.

A large decline of tropospheric NO2 in China observed from space by SNPP OMPS

Nitrogen oxides (NO_x) are important constituents of air pollution. Here we use retrievals of tropospheric NO₂ column from the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) Nadir Mapper (NM) onboard the Suomi National Polar Partnership (SNPP) spacecraft to analyze global changes of NO₂ from 2012 to 2017. The largest decline of NO₂ is detected in eastern China, at a rate of -7.3 ± 1.5% per year, and almost entirely driven by wintertime decreases, indicative of decreasing anthropogenic NO_x emissions. During the same period, NO₂ over other regions around the globe was either stabilizing or changing at a rate only a fraction of that in China. In the case of the US, OMPS reports a statistically insignificant decreasing trend in NO₂, consistent with recent work based on the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), which can be almost entirely attributed to meteorology. OMPS thus offers a continuation of satellite NO₂ products from OMI to future JPSS satellites.

On-Board Sensor-Based NO x Emissions from Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

Real-world nitrogen oxides (NO _x) emissions were estimated using on-board sensor readings from 72 heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) equipped with a Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) system in California. The results showed that there were large differences between in-use and certification NO _x emissions, with 12 HDDVs emitting more than three times the standard during hot-running and idling operations in the real world. The overall NO _x conversion efficiencies of the SCR system on many vehicles were well below the 90% threshold that is expected for an efficient SCR system, even when the SCR system was above the optimum operating temperature threshold of 250 °C. This could potentially be associated with SCR catalyst deterioration on some engines. The Not-to-Exceed (NTE) requirements currently used by the heavy-duty in-use compliance program were evaluated using on-board NO _x sensor data. Valid NTE events covered only 4.2-16.4% of the engine operation and 6.6-34.6% of the estimated NO _x emissions. This work shows that low cost on-board NO _x sensors are a convenient tool to monitor in-use NO _x emissions in real-time, evaluate the SCR system performance, and identify vehicle operating modes with high NO _x emissions. This information can inform certification and compliance programs to ensure low in-use NO _x emissions.

Observing Severe Drought Influences on Ozone Air Pollution in California

Drought conditions affect ozone air quality, potentially altering multiple terms in the O₃ mass balance equation. Here, we present a multiyear observational analysis using data collected before, during, and after the record-breaking California drought (2011-2015) at the O₃-polluted locations of Fresno and Bakersfield near the Sierra Nevada foothills. We separately assess drought influences on O₃ chemical production ( PO₃) from O₃ concentration. We show that isoprene concentrations, which are a source of O₃-forming organic reactivity, were relatively insensitive to early drought conditions but decreased by more than 50% during the most severe drought years (2014-2015), with recovery a function of location. We find drought-isoprene effects are temperature-dependent, even after accounting for changes in leaf area, consistent with laboratory studies but not previously observed at landscape scales with atmospheric observations. Drought-driven decreases in organic reactivity are contemporaneous with a change in dominant oxidation mechanism, with PO₃ becoming more NO _x-suppressed, leading to a decrease in PO₃ of ∼20%. We infer reductions in atmospheric O₃ loss of ∼15% during the most severe drought period, consistent with past observations of decreases in O₃ uptake by plants. We consider drought-related trends in O₃ variability on synoptic time scales by analyzing statistics of multiday high-O₃ events. We discuss implications for regulating O₃ air pollution in California and other locations under more prevalent drought conditions.

Air quality accountability: Developing long-term daily time series of pollutant changes and uncertainties in Atlanta, Georgia resulting from the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments

The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments codified major institutional changes relating to the management of air pollutants in the United States. Recent research years has attributed reduced emissions over the past two decades to regulations enacted under these Amendments, but none have separated long-term daily impacts of individual regulatory programs on multiple source categories under a consistent framework. Using daily emissions and air quality measurements along with a detailed review of national and local regulations promulgated after the Amendments, we quantify daily changes in emissions and air quality attributable to regulations on electricity generating units and on-road mobile sources. To quantify daily changes, we develop nine sets of counterfactual emissions and ambient air pollution concentration time series for 10 pollutants that assume individual regulatory programs and combinations thereof were not implemented. In addition to daily impacts, we estimate uncertainties in these results. These counterfactual daily ambient concentrations reveal high seasonality and increasing effectiveness of most regulations between 1999 and 2013. Monthly average counterfactual concentrations in scenarios that assume no new regulations on electricity generating units and mobile sources are greater than observed concentrations for all pollutants except ozone, which has seen increased wintertime concentrations accompany summertime decreases. By the end of the period, electricity generating unit emissions reductions under the Acid Rain Program and Clean Air Interstate Rule and their respective related local programs led to similar PM_2.5 concentration decreases. Of the mobile source regulations, rules on gasoline and diesel vehicles led to similar reductions in annual PM_2.5, and gasoline programs led to double the summertime ozone reductions as diesel programs. The nine sets of daily time series and their uncertainties were designed for use in air pollution accountability health studies.

Balance of Emission and Dynamical Controls on Ozone During the Korea-United States Air Quality Campaign From Multiconstituent Satellite Data Assimilation

Global multiconstituent concentration and emission fields obtained from the assimilation of the satellite retrievals of ozone, CO, NO2, HNO3, and SO2 from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2, Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere, Microwave Limb Sounder, and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)/OMI are used to understand the processes controlling air pollution during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign. Estimated emissions in South Korea were 0.42 Tg N for NO x and 1.1 Tg CO for CO, which were 40% and 83% higher, respectively, than the a priori bottom-up inventories, and increased mean ozone concentration by up to 7.5 ± 1.6 ppbv. The observed boundary layer ozone exceeded 90 ppbv over Seoul under stagnant phases, whereas it was approximately 60 ppbv during dynamical conditions given equivalent emissions. Chemical reanalysis showed that mean ozone concentration was persistently higher over Seoul (75.10 ± 7.6 ppbv) than the broader KORUS-AQ domain (70.5 ± 9.2 ppbv) at 700 hPa. Large bias reductions (>75%) in the free tropospheric OH show that multiple-species assimilation is critical for balanced tropospheric chemistry analysis and emissions. The assimilation performance was dependent on the particular phase. While the evaluation of data assimilation fields shows an improved agreement with aircraft measurements in ozone (to less than 5 ppbv biases), CO, NO2, SO2, PAN, and OH profiles, lower tropospheric ozone analysis error was largest at stagnant conditions, whereas the model errors were mostly removed by data assimilation under dynamic weather conditions. Assimilation of new AIRS/OMI ozone profiles allowed for additional error reductions, especially under dynamic weather conditions. Our results show the important balance of dynamics and emissions both on pollution and the chemical assimilation system performance.

Spatial variation of modelled total, dry and wet nitrogen deposition to forests at global scale

Forests are an important biome that covers about one third of the global land surface and provides important ecosystem services. Since atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) can have both beneficial and deleterious effects, it is important to quantify the amount of N deposition to forest ecosystems. Measurements of N deposition to the numerous forest biomes across the globe are scarce, so chemical transport models are often used to provide estimates of atmospheric N inputs to these ecosystems. We provide an overview of approaches used to calculate N deposition in commonly used chemical transport models. The Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP2) study intercompared N deposition values from a number of global chemical transport models. Using a multi-model mean calculated from the HTAP2 deposition values, we map N deposition to global forests to examine spatial variations in total, dry and wet deposition. Highest total N deposition occurs in eastern and southern China, Japan, Eastern U.S. and Europe while the highest dry deposition occurs in tropical forests. The European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) model predicts grid-average deposition, but also produces deposition by land use type allowing us to compare deposition specifically to forests with the grid-average value. We found that, for this study, differences between the grid-average and forest specific could be as much as a factor of two and up to more than a factor of five in extreme cases. This suggests that consideration should be given to using forest-specific deposition for input to ecosystem assessments such as critical loads determinations.

Evaluation of Heavy- and Medium-Duty On-Road Vehicle Emissions in California's South Coast Air Basin

Emission measurements were collected from heavy-duty (HDVs) and medium-duty vehicles (MDVs) at the Peralta weigh station long-term measurement site near Anaheim, CA, in 2017. Two Fuel Efficiency Automobile Test units sampled elevated and ground-level exhaust vehicles totaling 2 315 measurements. HDVs (1844 measurements) exhibited historical reductions in fuel specific oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) from the 2008 measurements (55%) with increased use of exhaust gas recirculation and selective catalytic reduction systems. However, as these technologies have aged, the in-use benefits have declined. Infrared % opacity measurements of tailpipe soot decreased 14% since 2012 with increased diesel particulate filter (DPF) use, DPF longevity, and fleet turnover. Sixty-three percent of the HDV fleet in 2017 was chassis model year 2011+ compared to only 12% in 2012. The observed MDV fleet (471 measurements) was 1.4 years older than the HDV fleet with average NO_x 14% higher. A significant reduction in MDV NO_x occurred ∼2 model years prior to similar HDV reductions (2014 versus 2016 chassis model year). MDV chassis model years 2014+ were able to meet their corresponding NO_x laboratory certification standards in-use, whereas HDVs remain slightly above this threshold. Similar MDV NO_x emission trends were also observed in data previously collected in Chicago, IL.