Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050

Enhancing the potential of children's agency to achieve global sustainability

Despite progress toward sustainability, it remains uncertain how we as a global society will make transformations needed at scale. We argue that intentionally involving children in sustainability efforts may catalyze promising changes in how we approach human-environmental crises. This involvement, however, entails much more than the traditional focus on exposing children to environmental education or sustainability learning. Here, we present a pathway where children move through incremental yet fluid stages, from rich experiences in nature in early childhood, to reflective activities, leadership development, and formal opportunities in sustainability governance in later childhood and adolescence. Each stage requires overcoming distinct barriers that vary across and within countries: we identify and discuss these main barriers, and suggest potential ways the sustainability sciences community can help to reduce them. We offer this proposed pathway as a first step toward ensuring young people's involvement, agency, and stewardship in achieving global sustainability.

Climate change impacts and sustainability integration among breast international group members

BACKGROUND

Integration of sustainability measures into clinical research would translate into less healthcare related climate impacts.

METHODS

We assessed climate change impacts, existing sustainability engagement, and challenges and facilitators to climate change mitigation strategies among Breast International Group (BIG) members. A 30 item web based survey assessing climate impacts, sustainability engagement, challenges to and facilitators of engagement, and sustainability integration in funding applications was developed, and circulated electronically between November 2023 and March 2024.

RESULTS

Thirty four members (research groups and data centres) and participating sites across 5 continents, and BIG headquarters responded. Twenty six responses were received from 21 organisations, 20 from 17 participating sites. No responses were obtained from 28 groups. Trial conduct at a third of member groups had been impacted by climate change impacts such as destroyed infrastructure. 78 % of groups agreed that sustainability should feature in future funding applications. Most respondents engaged in sustainability initiatives at a host institute and organisational level. However, 39 % of coordinating centres and 65 % of representative sites had none within clinical trials conducted by their organisation. The majority of respondents foresaw challenges to sustainability engagement including competing time pressure, staff attitudes and resource constraints. Of nine potential facilitators to engagement, funding, an evidence base for sustainable research practice and training were the leading themes.

CONCLUSION

In the first global survey of its kind, a third of respondents reported that climate change had impacted trial conduct. Integration of sustainability measures was absent in a significant minority. Funding and dedicated resourcing would facilitate increased engagement in cancer clinical trials.

Simulation-based education and sustainability: creating a bridge to action

BACKGROUND

In light of growing environmental concerns, this article examines the often-overlooked environmental impact of simulation-based education (SBE) within healthcare. We position simulation professionals as agents for environmentally sustainable change and seek to empower achievable, meaningful, measurable action. As a high-value yet resource-intensive pedagogical tool, SBE frequently relies on energy-intensive technologies and single-use materials that contribute to carbon emissions and waste. This article explores the environmental impact of SBE, detailing how it contributes to the healthcare sector's impact on the triple planetary crisis; climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss.

MAIN MESSAGES

Within the simulation community, we have observed a high level of motivation to respond to the triple planetary crisis and make sustainable change. However, there is limited information available to simulation educators about practical changes that can be made. We have responded with an article that can help move from rhetoric to action, from inertia to empowerment. Understanding the environmental impact of simulation activities provides a useful starting point. We explain how to estimate a carbon footprint for SBE and how this relates to its wider environmental impact. Recognising the urgent need for change, we then present a comprehensive toolkit of practical strategies that can improve the environmental impact of SBE. Part one of our toolkit focuses on resource management, waste reduction and efficient session delivery. In part two, we highlight how principles of sustainable healthcare can be incorporated into scenario design and local strategy. This more holistic approach shows how SBE can be leveraged beyond immediate educational goals to foster sustainable practice in healthcare. We present evidence for our toolkit, detailing the principles and frameworks on which the suggestions are based. Additionally, we discuss how change can be measured and what risks educators should be aware of.

CONCLUSION

By embedding sustainability into SBE, educators can not only mitigate their own environmental impact but also model sustainable healthcare practices for learners. Through these steps, the simulation community can play a pivotal role in addressing healthcare's environmental impact and contribute to a healthier planet.

Unterstützung junger Menschen in gesellschaftlichen Krisenlagen – Gemeinsam Verantwortung für die mentale Gesundheit von Kindern und Jugendlichen übernehmen

Supporting Young People in Social Crisis Situations - Taking Joint Responsibility for the Mental Health of Children and Young Adolescents Children and young people are particularly affected by socio-ecological crises in several ways. They are more easily harmed by their effects, they are also less able to cope with the effects, which potentially increases the damage, they are dependent on adults and institutions and they often look at what is happening in the world with greater concern. Particularly vulnerable are adolescents who do not have a stable family system, children and young people who have experienced flight, and young people who are less well included in society due to poverty or other factors. In times of increasing social and global crises with repercussions right on the doorstep, schools and other social institutions are therefore important stabilizing institutions. This article is aimed at institutions and individuals who work with children and young people and sheds light on how they can support children and young people.

Polar regions are critical in achieving global sustainable development goals

As important components of global commons, environmental changes in polar regions are crucial to the local and global sustainability. However, they have received little attention in the current framework of sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study examines the impacts of climate change in polar regions, emphasizing the interconnectedness of these areas with other parts of the global system. Here we show that polar regions are a limiting factor in achieving global SDGs, similar to the "shortest stave" in Liebig's barrel, primarily due to the teleconnection effects of climate tipping elements. Proactive actions should ensure polar regions aren't left behind in achieving global SDGs. We proposed a specific SDG target and five indicators for the interconnected effect of the cryosphere on climate actions and incorporate considerations for Indigenous peoples in polar regions. With the right actions and strengthened global partnerships, polar regions can be pivotal for advancing global sustainable development.

The multiple roles of religious actors in advancing a sustainable future

Religious actors have great potential for influencing transformation processes toward environmentally sustainable societies. Influencing peoples' worldviews, values, and group norms, they can promote (or block) pro-environmental attitudes, lifestyles, and political decision-making. Yet, current scholarship is ambivalent about religion's contribution to environmental sustainability. This perspective article outlines various roles religious actors can assume in sustainability transitions. We suggest a systematization of four roles-(1) pioneering, (2) path-following, (3) passive observing, and (4) prohibiting change-and portray five conditions that influence and catalyze these roles-(a) theological commitment, (b) internal support, (c) resources, (d) social and political influence, and (e) wider societal conditions. Generating this conceptual clarity is crucial as it allows researchers and policy actors to recognize the diversity of religious expressions with respect to sustainability action, and grasp the conditions under which religious actors are best equipped to address sustainability challenges.

Rapidly diverging public trust in science in the United States

Trust in science is crucial to resolving societal problems. Americans across political ideologies have high levels of trust in science-a stable pattern observed over the past 50 years. Yet, trust in science varies by individual and group characteristics and faces several threats, from political actors, increased political polarization, or global crises. We revisit historical trends of trust in science among Americans by political orientation. We find steadily diverging trends by political views since the 1990s, and a drastically and rapidly opening gap since 2018. Recent unprecedented changes are driven not only by decreases in trust among conservatives but also by increases among liberals. Existing theoretical accounts do not fully explain these patterns. Diverging attitudes toward the institution of science can diminish capacity for collective problem-solving, eroding the shared foundation for decision-making and political discourse.

Integrating social learning and network formation for social tipping towards a sustainable future

Numerous psychological biases shape how we respond to observing others conforming to or diverging from social norms. Depending on our social networks, we may be more influenced by societal majorities, such as the widespread consumption of meat or frequent air travel, or by the sustainable lifestyles of our closest friends. The evolution of social norms is shaped by personal preferences, values, beliefs, and the structure of social networks. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for promoting a cultural shift towards sustainability, yet our grasp of how normative transformations occur remains limited. In this paper, we simulate an agent-based model in which agents choose between maintaining the status quo or adopting an alternative, engaging in a coordination game. Our model illustrates that interventions aimed at changing individual preferences may fail if the population is structured in polarised networks, where agents with similar preferences cluster together and primarily interact within their groups. These echo chambers limit the effectiveness of preference-based interventions. However, we show that a subsequent intervention that increases the salience of behaviours from agents with dissimilar preferences can successfully tip the population from a status quo equilibrium to an alternative norm equilibrium. This paper outlines the challenges policymakers face in designing interventions for catalysing positive social norm changes. We argue for a reevaluation of current methodologies for modelling and empirically investigating norm change. Our primary recommendation for future research is a more comprehensive incorporation of the myriad ways individuals respond to social information and network formation.

Modeling and testing strategic interdependence and tipping in public policy implementation

We develop a game-theoretic model of strategic interdependence and tipping in public policy choices and show that the model can be estimated by probit and logit estimators. We test its validity and applicability by using daily data on state-level COVID-19 responses in the United States. Social distancing via shelter-in-place (SIP) strategies and wearing masks emerged as the most effective nonpharmaceutical ways of combatting COVID-19. In the United States, choices about these policies are made by individual states. We develop a game-theoretic model of such choices and test it econometrically, confirming strong interdependence in the implementation of these policies. If enough states engage in social distancing or mask wearing, others will be tipped to follow suit. Policy choices are influenced mainly by the choices of other states, especially those of similar political orientation and to a lesser degree by the number of new COVID-19 cases. The choice of mask-wearing policies is more sensitive to peer choices than the choice of SIP policies, and Republican states are much less likely than Democratic to introduce mask-wearing policies. The choices of policies are influenced more by political than public health considerations. These findings emphasize strategic interdependence in policy choice and offer an analytical framework for these complex dynamics.

Investigating ocean circulation dynamics through data assimilation: A mathematical study using the Stommel box model with rapid oscillatory forcings

We investigate ocean circulation changes through the lens of data assimilation using a reduced-order model. Our primary interest lies in the Stommel box model, which reveals itself to be one of the most practicable models that has the ability of reproducing the meridional overturning circulation. The Stommel box model has at most two regimes: TH (temperature driven circulation with sinking near the north pole) and SA (salinity driven with sinking near the equator). Currently, the meridional overturning is in the TH regime. Using box-averaged Met Office EN4 ocean temperature and salinity data, our goal is to provide a probability that a future regime change occurs and establish how this probability depends on the uncertainties in initial conditions, parameters, and forcings. We will achieve this using data assimilation tools and DAPPER within the Stommel box model with fast oscillatory regimes.

Tipping in Stuart-Landau oscillators induced by higher-order repulsive interactions

Tipping phenomena in complex systems represent abrupt transitions in the system behavior due to incremental changes in parameters. Here, we report the emergence of an abrupt transition from an oscillatory to a death state in coupled limit cycle oscillators with higher-order repulsive interactions. This transition contrasts with the typical continuous transitions observed with pairwise repulsive links. It is notable that higher-order interactions introduce more complexity to the system dynamics, thereby leading to the transition to the death state at lower coupling strengths compared to pairwise coupled systems. Importantly, there exists a sudden revival of the oscillation from the death state with increasing the pairwise coupling strength despite the detrimental effect of pairwise couplings. The results are also robust for nonidentical systems. Furthermore, the analytical determination of the critical coupling strength for the tipping point aligns closely with the results obtained from numerical simulations.

[Medical education in ecology and environmental health: A sustainable tool for action]

Global warming and the disruption in ecosystems have been identified as the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Today, the French healthcare system accounts for 6.6% to 10% of overall greenhouse gas emissions in France. This system is currently not resilient and totally dependent on fossil fuels. Therefore, a transformation of the current system is needed in order to reduce the deterioration of populations' health. Medical education and pedagogy have been identified as a major solution for the ecological transformation of the healthcare system. The introduction of early education on ecology and environmental health in the first and second cycles of medical studies is a major lever for action. From the third cycle of medical studies, and more specifically in pathology, it is essential to teach this topic to residents and experienced pathologists, whether in "theoretical teaching" or "applied to the medical specialty". The aim of this review is to identify the educational programs and training currently available in the medical courses and at the post-graduate level, regarding ecology/environmental health and the consequences on human health. Then, we will detail more specifically the pedagogical perspectives and training opportunities for pathology residents and pathologists.

When concern is not enough: Overcoming the climate awareness-action gap

Climate concern is on the rise in many countries and recent research finds that lifestyle- and behaviour-change could advance climate action; yet, individuals struggle to move their climate concern into action. This is known as the 'awareness-action inconsistency,' 'psychological climate paradox,' or 'values-action gap.' While this gap has been extensively studied, climate action implementation and policy-design seldom sufficiently apply that body of knowledge in practice. This Perspective presents a comprehensive heuristic to account for how individuals bring climate change into their awareness (climate action-logics), how they keep climate change out of their awareness (climate shadow), how social narratives contribute to shaping choices (climate discourses), and how systems and structures influence and constrain agency (climate-action systems). The heuristic is illustrated with an example of 15-Minute Cities in Canada. Understanding the multifaceted dilemma that weighs on people's sense-making and behaviours may help policy-makers and practitioners to ameliorate the climate awareness-action gap.

Collapse, social tipping dynamics, and framing climate change

In this article, we claim that recent developments in climate science and renewable energy should prompt a reframing of debates surrounding climate change mitigation. Taken together, we argue that these developments suggest (1) global climate collapse in this century is a non-negligible risk, (2) mitigation offers substantial benefits to current generations, and (3) mitigation by some can generate social tipping dynamics that could ultimately make renewables cheaper than fossil fuels. We explain how these claims undermine familiar framings of climate change, wherein mitigation is understood as self-sacrifice that individuals and governments must be morally persuaded or incentivized to undertake.

Audience segmentation approach to conservation messaging for transforming the exotic pet trade

Advancing transformative change for sustainability requires population-wide behavior change. Yet, many behavioral interventions tackling environmental problems only examine average effects on the aggregate, overlooking the heterogeneous effects in a population. We developed and preregistered a novel audience segmentation approach to test the diverse impact of conservation messaging on reducing demand for exotic pets (private action - i.e., desire to own exotic pets or visit wildlife entertainment places) and fostering citizen engagement for system-wide change (civic action - e.g., signing a petition or participating in a protest against the exotic pet trade). Through an online survey with US participants (n = 2953), we identified 4 population segments (early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards), representing varying levels of commitment to wildlife conservation and then randomly assigned each segment to one of 3 messaging conditions. Messages highlighting negative consequences of the exotic pet trade and the power of collective action for system change effectively promoted private action among all segments except early adopters (ηp 2 = 0.005). Among civic actions, only the collective action message motivated early adopters and the early majority to sign petitions (φC = 0.193 and φC = 0.097, respectively). Furthermore, the 4 segments showed distinct reasoning for action and inaction on wildlife conservation, with certain relational values, such as care, serving as both motivations and barriers to action. These findings highlight the need for targeted behavioral interventions across diverse populations.

Addressing AMR and planetary health in primary care: the potential of general practitioners as change agents

Introduction

Antimicrobial resistance is closely linked with the health and stability of environmental systems and therefore a challenge for the health of the planet. General Practitioners, owing to their trusted positions and close patient relationships, can play a crucial role in addressing antimicrobial resistance within the framework of Planetary Health. The goal of our study was to examine General Practitioners' knowledge, attitude, and practice regarding the linkage of antimicrobial resistance with Planetary Health to understand their potential as agents of change in this domain.

Materials and methods

We conducted 19 guided interviews with General Practitioners from four different German federal states (August-September 2022). Participants were selected from the intervention group of the RedAres randomized controlled trial, a study designed to optimize therapy and prescribing practices for uncomplicated urinary tract infections in general practice. Data were analyzed using Mayring's structured qualitative content analysis and the typology approach by Kelle and Kluge.

Results

General Practitioners generally demonstrated the ability to identify the interlinkages between antimicrobial resistance and Planetary Health. However, they exhibited varying levels of knowledge, problem awareness, and accountability for the associated challenges and partially outsourced the responsibility for Planetary Health. Some General Practitioners were capable of integrating Planetary Health arguments into patient counseling. They recognized rational prescribing practice, self-reflection on antimicrobial resistance and Planetary Health, interprofessional exchange, and raising awareness among patients as potential avenues for engagement in promoting Planetary Health.

Discussion

As antimicrobial resistance is increasingly recognized as a Planetary Health challenge, empowering General Practitioners as change agents requires tailored measures based on their level of previous knowledge and their attitude toward Planetary Health. General Practitioners express a need for concrete advice on how to integrate antimicrobial resistance as a Planetary Health topic into their daily activities. Developing and evaluating adaptable training materials is essential. Additionally, the integration of Planetary Health outcomes into clinical guidelines could accelerate the adoption of this dimension in antibiotic prescribing practices within primary care settings.

Actions speak louder than words: the case for responsible scientific activism in an era of planetary emergency

The world's understanding of the climate and ecological crises rests on science. However, scientists' conventional methods of engagement, such as producing ever more data and findings, writing papers and giving advice to governments, have not been sufficiently effective at persuading politicians to act on the climate and ecological emergency. To date, governments' decisions (such as continuing with vast subsidies for fossil fuels) clearly show that powerful vested interests have been much more influential than the amassed scientific knowledge and advice. We argue that in the face of this inaction, scientists can have the maximum amount of influence by lending their support to social movements pressing for action, joining as active participants and considering civil disobedience. Scientists seeking to halt continued environmental destruction also need to work through our institutions. Too many scientific organizations, from national academies of science to learned societies and universities, have not taken practical action on climate; for example, many still partner with fossil fuel and other compromised interests. We therefore also outline a vision for how scientists can reform our scientific institutions to become powerful agents for change.

Tipping points of evolving epidemiological networks: Machine learning-assisted, data-driven effective modeling

We study the tipping point collective dynamics of an adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemiological network in a data-driven, machine learning-assisted manner. We identify a parameter-dependent effective stochastic differential equation (eSDE) in terms of physically meaningful coarse mean-field variables through a deep-learning ResNet architecture inspired by numerical stochastic integrators. We construct an approximate effective bifurcation diagram based on the identified drift term of the eSDE and contrast it with the mean-field SIS model bifurcation diagram. We observe a subcritical Hopf bifurcation in the evolving network's effective SIS dynamics that causes the tipping point behavior; this takes the form of large amplitude collective oscillations that spontaneously-yet rarely-arise from the neighborhood of a (noisy) stationary state. We study the statistics of these rare events both through repeated brute force simulations and by using established mathematical/computational tools exploiting the right-hand side of the identified SDE. We demonstrate that such a collective SDE can also be identified (and the rare event computations also performed) in terms of data-driven coarse observables, obtained here via manifold learning techniques, in particular, Diffusion Maps. The workflow of our study is straightforwardly applicable to other complex dynamic problems exhibiting tipping point dynamics.

Distinguishing fast change in social norms and slow change in personal norms in cooperative decision-making

Psychological research on norms has shown that norms are highly relevant for individuals' decision-making. Yet, there is so far little understanding of how norms change over time. Knowledge about how norms change may help better understanding their potential for as well as limitations in guiding decision-making and changing behavior. The present work investigated change in individuals' cooperation norms. As an indicator of different underlying processes of norm change, the temporal dynamics of different types of norms were examined. It was assumed that participants' social norms are adapted quickly whenever the social situation changes, while personal norms change more slowly and gradually, abstracting part of the situational learning in interaction with one's personality. In an experimental study, participants played a repeated prisoner's dilemma game with artificial co-players representing a predominantly cooperative or uncooperative social setting, depending on the experimental condition. The condition was expected to affect slow learning of personal norms. Additionally, the cooperativeness of the social setting was varied repeatedly within conditions, expected to result in fast changes in social norms. Participants' personal and social norms were assessed throughout the game. As predicted, the temporal dynamics differed between norms with social norms changing quickly and personal norms more slowly. Personal norms strongly predicted behavioral decision-making and were predicted by situational and personality factors. Potential qualitative differences of the underlying norm change processes are discussed.

Evaluating the resilience of residential buildings during a pandemic with a sustainable construction approach

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a catastrophic event that has affected all aspects of human life worldwide. Due to the high genetic mutations of the virus, there has been a prolonged search for definitive therapeutic discovery, leading to extended periods of home quarantine. As a result, homes have become multipurpose spaces for work, education, sports, and other daily activities. Given the importance of residential buildings as the first line of defense against possible future pandemics, a model has been proposed to assess their readiness to handle pandemics using a sustainable development approach. This study investigates the most crucial criteria for evaluating residential buildings and applies them in a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) process. The final evaluation model is presented using the SWARA and COCOSO methods, along with a set of criteria selected and weighted by experts. The study shows that the criteria related to health and safety are more critical than other sectors. Buildings that meet the standards of this group better are likely to have a higher score.

How to choose between single-use and reusable medical materials for sustainable nursing: Methodological lessons learned from a national study

AIM

To demonstrate and reflect upon the methodological lessons by which healthcare organizations can address questions of environmental sustainability related to single-use healthcare materials.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional multi-centre study in hospitals was performed, followed by an exploratory analysis of the sustainability of commonly used healthcare materials.

METHODS

A hospital survey was conducted to collect the procurement data for single-use medical materials. Based on consumption and cost, five single-use medical materials with sustainable alternatives were selected using different reuse strategies. Single-use and reusable materials were assessed through an exploratory literature review and document study based on four parameters: environmental sustainability, safety, cost and efficiency.

RESULTS

A pragmatic method emerged from this study, providing healthcare facilities with tools to select environmentally sustainable alternatives to replace single-use options. First, an inventory of single-use medical materials consumed was collected. Next, single-use materials were prioritized for further study based on criteria such as cost, volume of the material, feasibility and input of stakeholders. We then analysed the prioritized single-use materials and their alternatives based on life cycle assessments or available information on their different life stages. Finally, we assessed safety, costs and efficiency related to the process following the use of the medical material.

CONCLUSION

This pragmatic method can guide healthcare institutions in making the most sustainable choices of medical materials and achieving sustainability goals within their institutions and nationwide.

IMPACT

Patient care involves a large consumption of single-use medical materials with considerable environmental impact. A pragmatic method was developed to guide healthcare institutions in making the most sustainable choices regarding the use of single-use healthcare materials. Healthcare institutions, ideally represented by a green team including nurses and other relevant professionals, can use this method to reduce the use of single-use medical materials, thereby yielding positive outcomes for the entire population.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

No patient or public contribution.

Negotiating discord in sustainability transformations

Policy action for sustainability transformation faces inherent and ever-present sources of conflict, pushback, and resistance (i.e., discord). However, conceptual frameworks and policy prescriptions for sustainability transformations often reflect an undue image of accord. This involves simplified assumptions about consensus, steering, friction, discreteness, and additiveness of policy action, conferring an unrealistic view of the potential to deliberately realize transformation. Instead, negotiating discord through continuously finding partial political settlements among divided actors needs to become a key focus of policy action for sustainability transformations. Doing so can help to navigate deeply political settings through imperfect but workable steps that loosen deadlock, generate momentum for further policy action, and avoid complete derailment of transformation agendas when discord arises.

The differential impact of climate interventions along the political divide in 60 countries

A major barrier to climate change mitigation is the political polarization of climate change beliefs. In a global experiment conducted in 60 countries (N = 51,224), we assess the differential impact of eleven climate interventions across the ideological divide. At baseline, we find political polarization of climate change beliefs and policy support globally, with people who reported being liberal believing and supporting climate policy more than those who reported being conservative (Cohen's d = 0.35 and 0.27, respectively). However, we find no evidence for a statistically significant difference between these groups in their engagement in a behavioral tree planting task. This conceptual-behavioral polarization incongruence results from self-identified conservatives acting despite not believing, rather than self-identified liberals not acting on their beliefs. We also find three interventions (emphasizing effective collective actions, writing a letter to a future generation member, and writing a letter from the future self) boost climate beliefs and policy support across the ideological spectrum, and one intervention (emphasizing scientific consensus) stimulates the climate action of people identifying as liberal. None of the interventions tested show evidence for a statistically significant boost in climate action for self-identified conservatives. We discuss implications for practitioners deploying targeted climate interventions.

The relevance of sustainable laboratory practices

Scientists are of key importance to the society to advocate awareness of the climate crisis and its underlying scientific evidence and provide solutions for a sustainable future. As much as scientific research has led to great achievements and benefits, traditional laboratory practices come with unintended environmental consequences. Scientists, while providing solutions to climate problems and educating the young innovators of the future, are also part of the problem: excessive energy consumption, (hazardous) waste generation, and resource depletion. Through their own research operations, science, research and laboratories have a significant carbon footprint and contribute to the climate crisis. Climate change requires a rapid response across all sectors of society, modeled by inspiring leaders. A broader scientific community that takes concrete actions would serve as an important step in convincing the general public of similar actions. Over the past years, grassroots movements across the sciences have recognized the overlooked impact of the scientific enterprise, and so-called Green Lab initiatives emerged seeking to address the environmental footprint of research. Driven by the voluntary efforts of researchers and staff, they educate peers, develop sustainability guidelines, write scientific publications and maintain accreditation frameworks. With this perspective we want to advocate for and spark leadership to promote a systemic change in laboratory practices and approach to research. Comprehensive evidence for the environmental impact of laboratories and their root-causes is presented, expanded with data from a current case study of the University of Groningen showcasing annual savings of 398 763 € as well as 477.1 tons of CO2e. This is followed by guidelines for sustainable lab practices and hands-on advice on how to achieve a systemic change at research institutions and industry. How can we expect industry, politics, and society to change, if we as scientists are not changing either? Scientists should lead by example and practice the change they want to see.

Transient social-ecological dynamics reveal signals of decoupling in a highly disturbed Anthropocene landscape

Understanding the transient dynamics of interlinked social-ecological systems (SES) is imperative for assessing sustainability in the Anthropocene. However, how to identify critical transitions in real-world SES remains a formidable challenge. In this study, we present an evolutionary framework to characterize these dynamics over an extended historical timeline. Our approach leverages multidecadal rates of change in socioeconomic data, paleoenvironmental, and cutting-edge sedimentary ancient DNA records from China's Yangtze River Delta, one of the most densely populated and intensively modified landscapes on Earth. Our analysis reveals two significant social-ecological transitions characterized by contrasting interactions and feedback spanning several centuries. Initially, the regional SES exhibited a loosely connected and ecologically sustainable regime. Nevertheless, starting in the 1950s, an increasingly interconnected regime emerged, ultimately resulting in the crossing of tipping points and an unprecedented acceleration in soil erosion, water eutrophication, and ecosystem degradation. Remarkably, the second transition occurring around the 2000s, featured a notable decoupling of socioeconomic development from ecoenvironmental degradation. This decoupling phenomenon signifies a more desirable reconfiguration of the regional SES, furnishing essential insights not only for the Yangtze River Basin but also for regions worldwide grappling with similar sustainability challenges. Our extensive multidecadal empirical investigation underscores the value of coevolutionary approaches in understanding and addressing social-ecological system dynamics.

The hope wheel: a model to enable hope-based pedagogy in Climate Change Education

In response to concerns about climate anxiety and distress, researchers and practitioners in both education and psychology have been investigating the importance of engaging climate hope in Climate Change Education (CCE). Synthesizing recent multidisciplinary research, alongside insights from the development of educational programs, this article proposes a new theoretical model for pedagogies of hope in CCE. The Hope Wheel presents three foundational elements: handrails for educators to hold on to while constructively engaging with climate change (honesty, awareness, spaceholding, action), guardrails for educators to be sensitive to when implementing the handrails (climate anxiety, mis-/disinformation, false hope), and lenses to encourage educators to explore connections between complex societal and planetary challenges (complexity, justice, perspectives, creativity, and empathy). This working model aims to support educators by distilling current learnings from the literature into a visual guide. It depicts essential elements to include, as well as avoid, in order to engage honest, hope-oriented CCE for transformative learning in the face of the climate crisis.

When norm change hurts

Applied cultural evolution includes any effort to mobilize social learning and cultural evolution to promote behaviour change. Social tipping is one version of this idea based on conformity and coordination. Conformity and coordination can reinforce a harmful social norm, but they can also accelerate change from a harmful norm to a beneficial alternative. Perhaps unfortunately, the link between the size of an intervention and social tipping is complex in heterogeneous populations. A small intervention targeted at one segment of society can induce tipping better than a large intervention targeted at a different segment. We develop and examine two models showing that the link between social tipping and social welfare is also complex in heterogeneous populations. An intervention strategy that creates persistent miscoordination, exactly the opposite of tipping, can lead to higher social welfare than another strategy that leads to tipping. We show that the potential benefits of miscoordination often hinge specifically on the preferences of people most resistant to behaviour change. Altogether, ordinary forms of heterogeneity complicate applied cultural evolution considerably. Heterogeneity weakens both the link between the size of a social planner's intervention and behaviour change and the link between behaviour change and the well-being of society. This article is part of the theme issue 'Social norm change: drivers and consequences'.

Addressing climate change with behavioral science: A global intervention tournament in 63 countries

Effectively reducing climate change requires marked, global behavior change. However, it is unclear which strategies are most likely to motivate people to change their climate beliefs and behaviors. Here, we tested 11 expert-crowdsourced interventions on four climate mitigation outcomes: beliefs, policy support, information sharing intention, and an effortful tree-planting behavioral task. Across 59,440 participants from 63 countries, the interventions' effectiveness was small, largely limited to nonclimate skeptics, and differed across outcomes: Beliefs were strengthened mostly by decreasing psychological distance (by 2.3%), policy support by writing a letter to a future-generation member (2.6%), information sharing by negative emotion induction (12.1%), and no intervention increased the more effortful behavior-several interventions even reduced tree planting. Last, the effects of each intervention differed depending on people's initial climate beliefs. These findings suggest that the impact of behavioral climate interventions varies across audiences and target behaviors.

The planetary commons: A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene

The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no-analogue trajectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems on Earth upon which the world collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions of the Earth system irrespective of national boundaries. We propose a new framework-the planetary commons-which differs from the global commons framework by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice.

Modelling six sustainable development transformations in Australia and their accelerators, impediments, enablers, and interlinkages

There is an urgent need to accelerate progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and recent research has identified six critical transformations. It is important to demonstrate how these transformations could be practically accelerated in a national context and what their combined effects would be. Here we bridge national systems modelling with transformation storylines to provide an analysis of a Six Transformations Pathway for Australia. We explore important policies to accelerate progress, synergies and trade-offs, and conditions that determine policy success. We find that implementing policy packages to accelerate each transformation would boost performance on the SDGs by 2030 (+23% above the baseline). Policymakers can maximize transformation synergies through investments in energy decarbonization, resilience, social protection, and sustainable food systems, while managing trade-offs for income and employment. To overcome resistance to transformations, ambitious policy action will need to be underpinned by technological, social, and political enabling conditions.

Optimistic framing increases responsible investment of investment professionals

The global warming crisis is unlikely to abate while the world continues to collectively fund the extraction and burning of fossil fuels. Carbon divestment is urgently needed to ward off the impending climate emergency. Yet responsible investments still only account for a modest share of global assets. We conduct an incentivized artefactual field experiment to test whether framing divestment as a social norm, communicating it by a person with perceived credibility and expertise (a messenger), and highlighting optimistic attributes bolster responsible investment. Our subjects are investment professionals who have significant influence over the allocation of funds. We provide evidence that optimistic framing increases responsible investment. Assuming a comparable effect size, the observed increase would represent a $3.6 trillion USD global shift in asset allocations.

Our fragile future under the cumulative cultural evolution of two technologies

We derive and analyse a model with unusual features characterizing human activities over the long-run. First, human population dynamics draw heavily on consumer-resource modelling in ecology in that humans must consume biological resources to produce new humans. Second, the model also draws heavily from economic growth theory in that humans do not simply consume biological resources; they also produce the resources they consume. Finally, humans use two types of technology. Consumption technology affects the rate at which humans can extract resources. Production technology controls how effectively humans convert labour into new resources. The dynamics of both types of technology are subject to cumulative cultural evolutionary processes that allow both technological progress and regress. The resulting model exhibits a wide range of dynamical regimes. That said, the system is routinely sensitive to initial conditions, with wildly different outcomes given the same parameter values. Moreover, the system exhibits a basic fragility in the sense that human activities often lead to the endogenous extinction of the human species. This can happen gently, or it can follow periods of explosive human activity with super-exponential growth that ends in collapse. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Green preferences sustain greenwashing: challenges in the cultural transition to a sustainable future

Discussions of the environmental impact that revolve around monetary incentives and other easy-to-measure factors are important, but they neglect culture. Pro-environmental values will be crucial when facing sustainability challenges in the Anthropocene, and demand among green consumers is arguably critical to incentivise sustainable production. However, owing to asymmetric information, consumers might not know whether the premium they pay for green production is well-spent. Reliable monitoring of manufacturers is meant to solve this problem. To see how this might work, we develop and analyse a game theoretic model of a simple buyer-seller exchange with asymmetric information, and our analysis shows that greenwashing can exist exactly because reliable monitoring co-exists with unreliable monitoring. More broadly, promoting pro-environmental values among consumers might even amplify the problem at times because a manufacturer with significant market power can exploit both consumer preferences for sustainability and trustworthy monitoring to gouge prices and in extreme cases green wash in plain sight. We discuss several strategies to address this problem. Promoting accurate beliefs and a large-scale behavioural change based on pro-environmental values might be necessary for a rapid transition to a sustainable future, but recent evidence from the cultural evolution literature highlights many important challenges. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Agentic processes in cultural evolution: relevance to Anthropocene sustainability

Humans have evolved culturally and perhaps genetically to be unsustainable. We exhibit a deep and consistent pattern of short-term resource exploitation behaviours and institutions. We distinguish agentic and naturally selective forces in cultural evolution. Agentic forces are quite important compared to the blind forces (random variation and natural selection) in cultural evolution and gene-culture coevolution. We need to use the agentic policy-making processes to evade the impact of blind natural selection. We argue that agentic forces became important during our Pleistocene history and into the Anthropocene present. Human creativity in the form of deliberate innovations and the deliberate selective diffusion of technical and social advances drove this process forward for a long time before planetary limits became a serious issue. We review models with multiple positive feedbacks that roughly fit this observed pattern. Policy changes in the case of large-scale existential threats like climate change are made by political and diplomatic agents grasping and moving levers of institutional power in order to avoid the operation of blind natural selection and agentic forces driven by narrow or short-term goals. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Spread of the cycles: a feedback perspective on the Anthropocene

What propelled the human 'revolutions' that started the Anthropocene? and what could speed humanity out of trouble? Here, we focus on the role of reinforcing feedback cycles, often comprised of diverse, unrelated elements (e.g. fire, grass, humans), in propelling abrupt and/or irreversible, revolutionary changes. We suggest that differential 'spread of the cycles' has been critical to the past human revolutions of fire use, agriculture, rise of complex states and industrialization. For each revolution, we review and map out proposed reinforcing feedback cycles, and describe how new systems built on previous ones, propelling us into the Anthropocene. We argue that to escape a bleak Anthropocene will require abruptly shifting from existing unsustainable 'vicious cycles', to alternative sustainable 'virtuous cycles' that can outspread and outpersist them. This will need to be complemented by a revolutionary cultural shift from maximizing growth to maximizing persistence (sustainability). To achieve that we suggest that non-human elements need to be brought back into the feedback cycles underlying human cultures and associated measures of progress. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Integrating evolutionary theory and social-ecological systems research to address the sustainability challenges of the Anthropocene

The rapid, human-induced changes in the Earth system during the Anthropocene present humanity with critical sustainability challenges. Social-ecological systems (SES) research provides multiple approaches for understanding the complex interactions between humans, social systems, and environments and how we might direct them towards healthier and more resilient futures. However, general theories of SES change have yet to be fully developed. Formal evolutionary theory has been applied as a dynamic theory of change of complex phenomena in biology and the social sciences, but rarely in SES research. In this paper, we explore the connections between both fields, hoping to foster collaboration. After sketching out the distinct intellectual traditions of SES research and evolutionary theory, we map some of their terminological and theoretical connections. We then provide examples of how evolutionary theory might be incorporated into SES research through the use of systems mapping to identify evolutionary processes in SES, the application of concepts from evolutionary developmental biology to understand the connections between systems changes and evolutionary changes, and how evolutionary thinking may help design interventions for beneficial change. Integrating evolutionary theory and SES research can lead to a better understanding of SES changes and positive interventions for a more sustainable Anthropocene. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Public perceptions of climate tipping points

Coverage of climate tipping points has rapidly increased over the past 20 years. Despite this upsurge, there has been precious little research into how the public perceives these abrupt and/or irreversible large-scale risks. This article provides a nationally representative view on public perceptions of climate tipping points and possible societal responses to them (n = 1773). Developing a mixed-methods survey with cultural cognition theory, it shows that awareness among the British public is low. The public is doubtful about the future effectiveness of humanity's response to climate change in general, and significantly more doubtful about its response to tipping points specifically. Significantly more people with an egalitarian worldview judge tipping points likely to be crossed and to be a significant threat to humanity. All possible societal responses received strong support. The article ends by considering the prospects for 'cultural tipping elements' to tip support for climate policies across divergent cultural worldviews.

Achieving decent living standards in emerging economies challenges national mitigation goals for CO2 emissions

Emerging economies, low- and middle-income countries experiencing rapid population and GDP growth, face the challenge of improving their living standards while stabilizing CO2 emissions to meet net-zero goals. In this study, we quantify the CO2 emissions required for achieving decent living standards (DLS) in emerging economies. The results show that, compared to other regions, achieving DLS in emerging Asian and African economies will result in more additional CO2 emissions, particularly in the DLS indicators of Mobility and Electricity. Achievement of DLS in emerging economies will result in 8.6 Gt of additional CO2 emissions, which should not jeopardize global climate targets. However, a concerning trend arises as more than half of the emerging economies (62 out of 121) will face substantial challenges in aligning their expected emission growth for achieving DLS with their national emission mitigation targets.

Community-engaged research is best positioned to catalyze systemic change

Addressing many social challenges requires both structural and behavioral change. The binary of an i- and s-frame obscures how behavioral science can help foster bottom-up collective action. Adopting a community-frame perspective moves toward a more integrative view of how social change emerges, and how it might be promoted by policymakers and publics in service of addressing challenges like climate change.

Harnessing human and machine intelligence for planetary-level climate action

The ongoing global race for bigger and better artificial intelligence (AI) systems is expected to have a profound societal and environmental impact by altering job markets, disrupting business models, and enabling new governance and societal welfare structures that can affect global consensus for climate action pathways. However, the current AI systems are trained on biased datasets that could destabilize political agencies impacting climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions and compromise social stability, potentially leading to societal tipping events. Thus, the appropriate design of a less biased AI system that reflects both direct and indirect effects on societies and planetary challenges is a question of paramount importance. In this paper, we tackle the question of data-centric knowledge generation for climate action in ways that minimize biased AI. We argue for the need to co-align a less biased AI with an epistemic web on planetary health challenges for more trustworthy decision-making. A human-in-the-loop AI can be designed to align with three goals. First, it can contribute to a planetary epistemic web that supports climate action. Second, it can directly enable mitigation and adaptation interventions through knowledge of social tipping elements. Finally, it can reduce the data injustices associated with AI pretraining datasets.

A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions

The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering different timescales. The goal is then to identify, date, characterize, and rank past critical transitions in terms of importance, thus possibly yielding a more thorough perspective on climatic history. To illustrate such an approach, which is inspired by the punctuated equilibrium perspective on the theory of evolution, we have analyzed 2 key high-resolution datasets: the CENOGRID marine compilation (past 66 Myr), and North Atlantic U1308 record (past 3.3 Myr). By combining recurrence analysis of the individual time series with a multivariate representation of the system based on the theory of the quasi-potential, we identify the key abrupt transitions associated with major regime changes that separate various clusters of climate variability. This allows interpreting the time-evolution of the system as a trajectory taking place in a dynamical landscape, whose multiscale features describe a hierarchy of metastable states and associated tipping points.

Measuring adolescents' level of interest in nature: a promising psychological factor facilitating nature protection

Studies indicate that young people are more prepared to engage in pro-environmental behavior if they are interested in nature and recognize it as worthy of protection. However, a reliable instrument to measure adolescents' interest in nature is still lacking. Therefore, we developed a new metric, the Scale of Interest in Nature (SIN). It consists of 18 items, is based on Item-Response-Theory and was validated using the known group approach (N = 351 adolescents). Results indicate that adolescents' interest in nature correlates positively with their connection with nature, their intention to preserve nature and engagement in pro-environmental activities in their free time. Bivariate Pearson correlations between the SIN and the Connectedness to Nature Scale (INS), as well as the Environmental Values model (2-MEV) demonstrated the scale's construct validity. Hence, the SIN scale provides an economical way to measure adolescents' interest in nature in research contexts or environmental and sustainability education settings.

Unlocking and accelerating transformations to the SDGs: a review of existing knowledge

As we cross the 2030 deadline to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), there is a growing sense of urgency around the need to accelerate the necessary transformations. These encompass a broad range of systems and require fundamental changes in system goals and design. In this paper, we undertake a narrative review of the literature relating to the acceleration of transformations and offer a framework for unlocking and accelerating transformations to the SDGs. While there is no blueprint for acceleration, there is an expanding knowledge base on important dynamics, impediments and enabling conditions across diverse literatures which can help to inform strategic interventions by actors. The emerging literature on positive tipping points and deep leverage points identifies opportunities to rewire systems design so that important system feedbacks create the conditions for acceleration. Transformation takes time and actors will need to build momentum to reorient systems around new goals, informed by knowledge of common policy, technology and behavioural feedbacks that govern system dynamics. Where resistance is strong, actors can seek to augment system design in ways that weaken balancing feedbacks that stabilise existing system configurations and strengthen reinforcing feedbacks that promote emerging system configurations oriented towards the SDGs. Well-designed and sequenced interventions can promote innovation and behaviour change and build and maintain political support. This can build critical enabling conditions and push systems towards large-scale tipping points, paving the way for decisive policy action that is crucial for triggering acceleration. We conclude by highlighting gaps and priorities for further research.

[Sustainability in private surgical practice-A narrative review]

Background

Surgery is contributing to the climate crisis, not least in the outpatient sector. The present publication aims to identify the challenges this poses, and to provide clear, preferably evidence-based recommendations on environmental protection while simultaneously reducing costs.

Method

Narrative review with a non-systematic search and selection in PubMed/MEDLINE and grey area literature as well as expert interviews.

Results

Numerous primary articles, evidence syntheses, practical recommendations for action and checklists were identified and two experts were interviewed. Environmental issues were identified in the production and procurement, transport of people and goods, usage of materials, pharmaceuticals including anesthetic gases and energy consumption in the outpatient practice and also in disposal, recycling, and sterilization. High-quality publications do not describe a lack of knowledge on alternatives but on a lack of implementation in clinical practice. Therefore, the identified issues were classified in the 5‑R scheme (reduce, reuse, recycle, rethink, research) to present recommendations for action, which are synergetic in terms of cost reduction, patient and staff satisfaction. Furthermore, changes in regulatory frameworks are discussed.

Conclusion

Outpatient surgery comes with relevant consumption of resources and carbon emissions. There are numerous opportunities for action that combine environmental protection with cost reduction as well as patient and staff satisfaction. Incentives, guidelines, and legal framework conditions are needed for comprehensive environmental protection in the private sector.

Ten characteristics of high-quality planetary health education-Results from a qualitative study with educators, students as educators and study deans at medical schools in Germany

Aim

The climate and ecological crises are considered fundamental threats to human health. Healthcare workers in general and doctors in particular can contribute as change agents in mitigation and adaptation. Planetary health education (PHE) aims to harness this potential. This study explores perspectives among stakeholders involved in PHE at German medical schools on the characteristics of high-quality PHE and compares them to existing PHE frameworks.

Methods

In 2021, we conducted a qualitative interview study with stakeholders from German medical schools involved in PHE. Three different groups were eligible: faculty members, medical students actively involved in PHE, and study deans of medical schools. Recruitment was performed through national PHE networks and snowball sampling. Thematic qualitative text analysis according to Kuckartz was used for the analysis. Results were systematically compared to three existing PHE frameworks.

Results

A total of 20 participants (13 female) from 15 different medical schools were interviewed. Participants covered a wide range of professional backgrounds and experience in PHE education. The analysis revealed ten key themes: (1) Complexity and systems thinking, (2) inter- and transdisciplinarity, (3) ethical dimension, (4) responsibility of health professionals, (5) transformative competencies including practical skills, (6) space for reflection and resilience building, (7) special role of students, (8) need for curricular integration, (9) innovative and proven didactic methods, and (10) education as a driver of innovation. Six of our themes showed substantial overlap with existing PHE frameworks. Two of our themes were only mentioned in one of the frameworks, and two others were not explicitly mentioned. Few important elements of the frameworks did not emerge from our data.

Conclusions

In the light of increased attention regarding the connections of the climate and ecological crises and health, our results can be useful for anyone working toward the integration of planetary health into medical schools' and any health professions' curricula and should be considered when designing and implementing new educational activities.

Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts

Earth's biodiversity and human societies face pollution, overconsumption of natural resources, urbanization, demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities, and habitat loss, many of which are exacerbated by climate change. Here, we review links among climate, biodiversity, and society and develop a roadmap toward sustainability. These include limiting warming to 1.5°C and effectively conserving and restoring functional ecosystems on 30 to 50% of land, freshwater, and ocean "scapes." We envision a mosaic of interconnected protected and shared spaces, including intensively used spaces, to strengthen self-sustaining biodiversity, the capacity of people and nature to adapt to and mitigate climate change, and nature's contributions to people. Fostering interlinked human, ecosystem, and planetary health for a livable future urgently requires bold implementation of transformative policy interventions through interconnected institutions, governance, and social systems from local to global levels.