The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais, Brazil: insights from epidemiological data and SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequencing

Spatiotemporal transmission of SARS-CoV-2 lineages during 2020-2021 in Pernambuco-Brazil

SARS-CoV-2 virus emerged as a new threat to humans and spread around the world, leaving a large death toll. As of January 2023, Brazil is among the countries with the highest number of registered deaths. Nonpharmacological and pharmacological interventions have been heterogeneously implemented in the country, which, associated with large socioeconomic differences between the country regions, has led to distinct virus spread dynamics. Here, we investigate the spatiotemporal dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the Pernambuco state (Northeast Brazil) throughout the distinct epidemiological scenarios that unfolded in the first 2 years of the pandemic. We generated a total of 1,389 new SARS-CoV-2 genomes from June 2020 to August 2021. This sampling captured the arrival, communitary transmission, and the circulation of the B1.1, B.1.1.28, and B.1.1.33 lineages; the emergence of the former variant of interest P.2; and the emergence and fast replacement of all previous variants by the more transmissible variant of concern P.1 (Gamma). Based on the incidence and lineage spread pattern, we observed an East-to-West to inner state pattern of transmission, which is in agreement with the transmission of more populous metropolitan areas to medium- and small-size country-side cities in the state. Such transmission patterns may be partially explained by the main routes of traffic across municipalities in the state. Our results highlight that the fine-grained intrastate analysis of lineages and incidence spread can provide actionable insights for planning future nonpharmacological intervention for air-borne transmissible human pathogens.IMPORTANCEDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, Brazil was one of the most affected countries, mainly due its continental-size, socioeconomic differences among regions, and heterogeneous implementation of intervention methods. In order to investigate SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in the state of Pernambuco, we conducted a spatiotemporal dispersion study, covering the period from June 2020 to August 2021, to comprehend the dynamics of viral transmission during the first 2 years of the pandemic. Throughout this study, we were able to track three significant epidemiological waves of transmission caused by B1.1, B.1.1.28, B.1.1.33, P.2, and P.1 lineages. These analyses provided valuable insights into the evolution of the epidemiological landscape, contributing to a deeper understanding of the dynamics of virus transmission during the early years of the pandemic in the state of Pernambuco.

Dynamics of Early Establishment of SARS-CoV-2 VOC Omicron Lineages in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Brazil is one of the nations most affected by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The introduction and establishment of new virus variants can be related to an increase in cases and fatalities. The emergence of Omicron, the most modified SARS-CoV-2 variant, caused alarm for the public health of Brazil. In this study, we examined the effects of the Omicron introduction in Minas Gerais (MG), the second-most populous state of Brazil. A total of 430 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) samples from November 2021 to June 2022 from Belo Horizonte (BH) city were sequenced. These newly sequenced genomes comprise 72% of all previously available SARS-CoV-2 genomes for the city. Evolutionary analysis of novel viral genomes reveals that a great diversity of Omicron sublineages have circulated in BH, a pattern in-keeping with observations across Brazil more generally. Bayesian phylogeographic reconstructions indicate that this diversity is a product of a large number of international and national importations. As observed previously, São Paulo state is shown as a significant hub for viral spread throughout the country, contributing to around 70% of all viral Omicron introductions detected in MG.

SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Surveillance in Brazil: A Systematic Review with Scientometric Analysis

Several studies have monitored the SARS-CoV-2 variants in Brazil throughout the pandemic. Here, we systematically reviewed and conducted a scientometric analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance studies using Brazilian samples. A Pubmed database search on October 2022 returned 492 articles, of which 106 were included. Ninety-six different strains were reported, with variant of concern (VOC) gamma (n = 35,398), VOC delta (n = 15,780), and the variant of interest zeta (n = 1983) being the most common. The top three states with the most samples in the published articles were São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais. Whereas the first year of the pandemic presented primary circulation of B.1.1.28 and B.1.1.33 variants, consecutive replacements were observed between them and VOI zeta, VOC gamma, VOC delta, and VOC omicron. VOI mu, VOI lambda, VOC alpha, and VOC beta were also detected but failed to reach significant circulation. Co-infection, re-infection, and vaccine breakthrough reports were found. Article co-citation differed from the co-authorship structure. Despite the limitations, we expect to give an overview of Brazil's genomic surveillance studies and contribute to future research execution.

Intrinsic host susceptibility among multiple species to intranasal SARS-CoV-2 identifies diverse virological, biodistribution and pathological outcomes

SARS-CoV-2 exhibits a diverse host species range with variable outcomes, enabling differential host susceptibility studies to assess suitability for pre-clinical countermeasure and pathogenesis studies. Baseline virological, molecular and pathological outcomes were determined among multiple species-one Old World non-human primate (NHP) species (cynomolgus macaques), two New World NHP species (red-bellied tamarins; common marmosets) and Syrian hamsters-following single-dose, atraumatic intranasal administration of SARS-CoV-2/Victoria-01. After serial sacrifice 2, 10 and 28-days post-infection (dpi), hamsters and cynomolgus macaques displayed differential virus biodistribution across respiratory, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular systems. Uniquely, New World tamarins, unlike marmosets, exhibited high levels of acute upper airway infection, infectious virus recovery associated with mild lung pathology representing a host previously unrecognized as susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. Across all species, lung pathology was identified post-clearance of virus shedding (antigen/RNA), with an association of virus particles within replication organelles in lung sections analysed by electron microscopy. Disrupted cell ultrastructure and lung architecture, including abnormal morphology of mitochondria 10-28 dpi, represented on-going pathophysiological consequences of SARS-CoV-2 in predominantly asymptomatic hosts. Infection kinetics and host pathology comparators using standardized methodologies enables model selection to bridge differential outcomes within upper and lower respiratory tracts and elucidate longer-term consequences of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Molecular characterization and sequecing analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genome in Minas Gerais, Brazil

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), first identified in Wuhan, China, is the causative agent of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its first notification in São Paulo state (SP) on 26th February 2020, more than 22,300,000 cases and 619,000 deaths were reported in Brazil. In early pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 spread locally, however, over time, this virus was disseminated to other regions of the country. Herein, we performed genomic sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 using 20 clinical samples of COVID-19 confirmed cases from 9 cities of Minas Gerais state (MG), in order to evaluate the molecular properties of circulating viral strains in this locality from March to May 2020. Our analyses demonstrated the circulation of B.1 lineage isolates in the investigated locations and nucleotide substitutions were observed into the genomic regions related to important viral structures. Additionally, sequences generated in this study clustered with isolates from SP, suggesting a dissemination route between these two states. Alternatively, monophyletic groups of sequences from MG and other states or country were observed, indicating independent events of virus introduction. These results reinforce the need of genomic surveillance for understand the ongoing spread of emerging viral pathogens.

SARS-CoV-2 Spatiotemporal Genomic and Molecular Analysis of the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Macaé, the Brazilian Capital of Oil

The SARS-CoV-2 virus infection led to millions of deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hundreds of workers from several other Brazilian cities, as well as from other countries, arrive daily in Macaé to work in the oil supply chain, making this city a putative hotspot for the introduction of new viral lineages. In this study, we performed a genomic survey of SARS-CoV-2 samples from Macaé during the first outbreak of COVID-19, combined with clinical data and a molecular integrative analysis. First, phylogenomic analyses showed a high occurrence of viral introduction events and the establishment of local transmissions in Macaé, including the ingression and spread of the B.1.1.28 lineage in the municipality from June to August 2020. Second, SARS-CoV-2 mutations were identified in patients with distinct levels of COVID-19 severity. Third, molecular interactions of the mutated spike protein from three B.1.1.33 local samples and human ACE2 showed higher interactions than that of the wild-type spike protein from the ancestral virus. Altogether, these results elucidate the SARS-CoV-2 genomic profile in a strategic Brazilian city and further explore the functional aspects of SARS-CoV-2 with a characterization of emerging viral mutations associated with clinical data and the potential targets for drug development against SARS-CoV-2.

Gut Microbiota and COVID-19: Potential Implications for Disease Severity

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic resulted in an unprecedented global crisis. SARS-CoV-2 primarily causes lung infection trough the binding of the virus with the ACE-2 cell receptor located on the surface of the alveolar epithelial cells. Notably, ACE-2 cell receptors are also expressed in the epithelial cells of the intestinal tract (GI). Recent data showed that the microbial communities of the GI might act as local and systematic inflammatory modulators. Gastrointestinal symptoms, including diarrhea, are frequently observed in infected individuals, and recent released data indicate that SARS-CoV-2 may also spread by fecal–oral transmission. Moreover, the gut microbiota’s ecosystem can regulate and be regulated by invading pathogens, including viruses, facilitating an effective immune response, which in turn results in less severe diseases. In this regard, increased SARS-CoV-2 mortality and morbidities appear to be frequently observed in elderly immunocompromised patients and in people with essential health problems, such as diabetes, who, indeed, tend to have a less diverse gut microbiota (dysbiosis). Therefore, it is important to understand how the interaction between the gut microbiota and SARS-CoV-2 might shape the intensity of the infection and different clinical outcomes. Here, we provide insights into the current knowledge of dysbiosis during SARS-CoV-2 infection and methods that may be used to re-establish a more correct microbiota composition.

Genomic epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil

The high numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil have made Latin America an epicentre of the pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 established sustained transmission in Brazil early in the pandemic, but important gaps remain in our understanding of virus transmission dynamics at a national scale. We use 17,135 near-complete genomes sampled from 27 Brazilian states and bordering country Paraguay. From March to November 2020, we detected co-circulation of multiple viral lineages that were linked to multiple importations (predominantly from Europe). After November 2020, we detected large, local transmission clusters within the country. In the absence of effective restriction measures, the epidemic progressed, and in January 2021 there was emergence and onward spread, both within and abroad, of variants of concern and variants under monitoring, including Gamma (P.1) and Zeta (P.2). We also characterized a genomic overview of the epidemic in Paraguay and detected evidence of importation of SARS-CoV-2 ancestor lineages and variants of concern from Brazil. Our findings show that genomic surveillance in Brazil enabled assessment of the real-time spread of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

da Paixão Melo M, Ferreira da Silva M, de Jesus Gonçalves dos Santos N, de Souza Pessoa N, Silva de Araujo R, de Macedo Godim T, Fraga de Oliveira Tosta S, Brandão Nardy V, Cristina Faria E, Frederico de Carvalho Dominguez Souza B, Laís Almeida dos Santos J, Wikramaratna P, Giovanetti M, Alcântara LCJ, Lourenço J, Leal e Silva de Mello A. Dynamics and Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR Testing on Symptomatic Individuals Attending Healthcare Centers during 2020 in Bahia, Brazil

RT-PCR testing data provides opportunities to explore regional and individual determinants of test positivity and surveillance infrastructure. Using Generalized Additive Models, we explored 222,515 tests of a random sample of individuals with COVID-19 compatible symptoms in the Brazilian state of Bahia during 2020. We found that age and male gender were the most significant determinants of test positivity. There was evidence of an unequal impact among socio-demographic strata, with higher positivity among those living in areas with low education levels during the first epidemic wave, followed by those living in areas with higher education levels in the second wave. Our estimated probability of testing positive after symptom onset corroborates previous reports that the probability decreases with time, more than halving by about two weeks and converging to zero by three weeks. Test positivity rates generally followed state-level reported cases, and while a single laboratory performed ~90% of tests covering ~99% of the state's area, test turn-around time generally remained below four days. This testing effort is a testimony to the Bahian surveillance capacity during public health emergencies, as previously witnessed during the recent Zika and Yellow Fever outbreaks.

Early Emergence Phase of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Florida, US

SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, emerged in late 2019. The highly contagious B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of concern (VOC) was first identified in October 2020 in India and subsequently disseminated worldwide, later becoming the dominant lineage in the US. Understanding the local transmission dynamics of early SARS-CoV-2 introductions may inform actionable mitigation efforts during subsequent pandemic waves. Yet, despite considerable genomic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in the US, several gaps remain. Here, we explore the early emergence of the Delta variant in Florida, US using phylogenetic analysis of representative Florida and globally sampled genomes. We find multiple independent introductions into Florida primarily from North America and Europe, with a minority originating from Asia. These introductions led to three distinct clades that demonstrated varying relative rates of transmission and possessed five distinct substitutions that were 3-21 times more prevalent in the Florida sample as compared to the global sample. Our results underscore the benefits of routine viral genomic surveillance to monitor epidemic spread and support the need for more comprehensive genomic epidemiology studies of emerging variants. In addition, we provide a model of epidemic spread of newly emerging VOCs that can inform future public health responses.

Genomic epidemiology reveals the impact of national and international restrictions measures on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil

Brazil has experienced some of the highest numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths globally and from May 2021 made Latin America a pandemic epicenter. Although SARS-CoV-2 established sustained transmission in Brazil early in the pandemic, important gaps remain in our understanding of virus transmission dynamics at the national scale. Here, we describe the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 using near-full genomes sampled from 27 Brazilian states and a bordering country - Paraguay. We show that the early stage of the pandemic in Brazil was characterised by the co-circulation of multiple viral lineages, linked to multiple importations predominantly from Europe, and subsequently characterized by large local transmission clusters. As the epidemic progressed under an absence of effective restriction measures, there was a local emergence and onward international spread of Variants of Concern (VOC) and Variants Under Monitoring (VUM), including Gamma (P.1) and Zeta (P.2). In addition, we provide a preliminary genomic overview of the epidemic in Paraguay, showing evidence of importation from Brazil. These data reinforce the usefulness and need for the implementation of widespread genomic surveillance in South America as a toolkit for pandemic monitoring that provides a means to follow the real-time spread of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants with possible implications for public health and immunization strategies.

Replacement of the Gamma by the Delta variant in Brazil: Impact of lineage displacement on the ongoing pandemic

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Brazil was driven mainly by the spread of Gamma (P.1), a locally emerged variant of concern (VOC) that was first detected in early January 2021. This variant was estimated to be responsible for more than 96 per cent of cases reported between January and June 2021, being associated with increased transmissibility and disease severity, a reduction in neutralization antibodies and effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, and diagnostic detection failure. Here we show that, following several importations predominantly from the USA, the Delta variant rapidly replaced Gamma after July 2021. However, in contrast to what was seen in other countries, the rapid spread of Delta did not lead to a large increase in the number of cases and deaths reported in Brazil. We suggest that this was likely due to the relatively successful early vaccination campaign coupled with natural immunity acquired following prior infection with Gamma. Our data reinforce reports of the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and, considering the increasing concern due to the recently identified Omicron variant, argues for the necessity to strengthen genomic monitoring on a national level to quickly detect the emergence and spread of other VOCs that might threaten global health.

Seroprevalence, Prevalence, and Genomic Surveillance: Monitoring the Initial Phases of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in Betim, Brazil

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an unprecedented need for epidemiological monitoring using diverse strategies. We conducted a project combining prevalence, seroprevalence, and genomic surveillance approaches to describe the initial pandemic stages in Betim City, Brazil. We collected 3239 subjects in a population-based age-, sex- and neighborhood-stratified, household, prospective; cross-sectional study divided into three surveys 21 days apart sampling the same geographical area. In the first survey, overall prevalence (participants positive in serological or molecular tests) reached 0.46% (90% CI 0.12–0.80%), followed by 2.69% (90% CI 1.88–3.49%) in the second survey and 6.67% (90% CI 5.42–7.92%) in the third. The underreporting reached 11, 19.6, and 20.4 times in each survey. We observed increased odds to test positive in females compared to males (OR 1.88 95% CI 1.25–2.82), while the single best predictor for positivity was ageusia/anosmia (OR 8.12, 95% CI 4.72–13.98). Thirty-five SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sequenced, of which 18 were classified as lineage B.1.1.28, while 17 were B.1.1.33. Multiple independent viral introductions were observed. Integration of multiple epidemiological strategies was able to adequately describe COVID-19 dispersion in the city. Presented results have helped local government authorities to guide pandemic management.

Molecular dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Espirito Santo (Brazil) and border States

This study represents the first overview of the epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Espirito Santo (ES) State, Brazil, filling in knowledge on this topic, observing data collected in the State, and aiming at understanding the epidemiological dynamics of the virus in ES, as well as its possible routes of transmission and dissemination. . Our results highlight that, so far, nine lineages have been identified with ES State. The B.1.1.33 lineage was the first with the highest occurrence in ES, remaining predominant until September 2020. The second predominant lineage was ^Gamma, representing 45% of the samples. The Delta lineage appears on the State scene, proving to be the next dominant lineage. This research allowed us to understand how the lineages advanced and were distributed in the State, which is important for future work, also making it possible to guide sanitary control measures. Data analyses were made through the GISAID database for ES State showed that the pandemic in the State has been evolving dynamically with lineage replacements over the months since the first notification.

Unraveling a Nosocomial Outbreak of COVID-19: The Role of Whole-Genome Sequence Analysis

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses many epidemiological challenges. The investigation of nosocomial transmission is usually performed via thorough investigation of an index case and subsequent contact tracing. Notably, this approach has a subjective component, and there is accumulating evidence that whole-genome sequencing of the virus may provide more objective insight.

METHODS

We report a large nosocomial outbreak in 1 of the medicine departments in our institution. Following intensive epidemiological investigation, we discovered that 1 of the patients involved was suffering from persistent COVID-19 while initially thought to be a recovering patient. She was therefore deemed to be the most likely source of the outbreak. We then performed whole-genome sequencing of the virus of 14 infected individuals involved in the outbreak.

RESULTS

Surprisingly, the results of whole-genome sequencing refuted our initial hypothesis. A phylogenetic tree of the samples showed multiple introductions of the virus into the ward, 1 of which led to a cluster of 10 of the infected individuals. Importantly, the results pointed in the direction of a specific index patient that was different from the 1 that arose from our initial investigation.

CONCLUSIONS

These results underscore the important added value of using whole-genome sequencing in epidemiological investigations as it may reveal unexpected connections between cases and aid in understanding transmission dynamics, especially in the setting of a pandemic where multiple possible index cases exist simultaneously.

Mutation hotspots and spatiotemporal distribution of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil, February 2020-2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has already reached more than 110 million people and is associated with 2.5 million deaths worldwide. Brazil is the third worst-hit country, with approximately 10.2 million cases and 250 thousand deaths. International efforts have been established to share information about Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemiology and evolution to support the development of effective strategies for public health and disease management. We aimed to analyze the high-quality genome sequences from Brazil from February 2020-2021 to identify mutation hotspots, geographical and temporal distribution of SARS-CoV-2 lineages by using phylogenetics and phylodynamics analyses. We describe heterogeneous sequencing efforts, the progression of the different lineages along time, evaluating mutational spectra and frequency oscillations derived from the prevalence of specific lineages across different Brazilian regions. We found at least seven major (1–7) and two minor clades related to the six most prevalent lineages in the country and described its spatial distribution and dynamics. The emergence and recent frequency shift of lineages (P.1 and P.2) carrying mutations of concern in the spike protein (e. g., E484K, N501Y) draws attention due to their association with immune evasion and enhanced receptor binding affinity. Improvements in genomic surveillance are of paramount importance and should be extended in Brazil to better inform policy makers about better decisions to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

Molecular Phylogenesis and Spatiotemporal Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Southeast Asia

Background: The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed an unprecedented challenge to public health in Southeast Asia, a tropical region with limited resources. This study aimed to investigate the evolutionary dynamics and spatiotemporal patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the region. Materials and Methods: A total of 1491 complete SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from 10 Southeast Asian countries were downloaded from the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) database on November 17, 2020. The evolutionary relationships were assessed using maximum likelihood (ML) and time-scaled Bayesian phylogenetic analyses, and the phylogenetic clustering was tested using principal component analysis (PCA). The spatial patterns of SARS-CoV-2 spread within Southeast Asia were inferred using the Bayesian stochastic search variable selection (BSSVS) model. The effective population size (Ne) trajectory was inferred using the Bayesian Skygrid model. Results: Four major clades (including one potentially endemic) were identified based on the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree. Similar clustering was yielded by PCA; the first three PCs explained 46.9% of the total genomic variations among the samples. The time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) and the evolutionary rate of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in Southeast Asia were estimated to be November 28, 2019 (September 7, 2019 to January 4, 2020) and 1.446 × 10-3 (1.292 × 10-3 to 1.613 × 10-3) substitutions per site per year, respectively. Singapore and Thailand were the two most probable root positions, with posterior probabilities of 0.549 and 0.413, respectively. There were high-support transmission links (Bayes factors exceeding 1,000) in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia; Malaysia involved the highest number (7) of inferred transmission links within the region. A twice-accelerated viral population expansion, followed by a temporary setback, was inferred during the early stages of the pandemic in Southeast Asia. Conclusions: With available genomic data, we illustrate the phylogeography and phylodynamics of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in Southeast Asia. Continuous genomic surveillance and enhanced strategic collaboration should be listed as priorities to curb the pandemic, especially for regional communities dominated by developing countries.

Impact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: Excess deaths, sub-notified cases, geographic and ethnic distribution

By analysing the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, we showed the importance of considering the sub-notification not only of deaths but also of infected cases. It was shown that the largely used criteria of a historical all-deaths baseline are not approachable in this case, where most of the deaths are associated with causes that should decrease due to social distancing and reduction of economic activities. A quite simple and intuitive model based on the Gompertz function was applied to estimate excess deaths and excess of infected cases. It fits well the data and predicts the evolution of the epidemic adequately. Based on these analyses, an excess of 21.638 deaths and 557.216 infected cases is predicted until the end of 2020, with an upper bound of the case fatality rate of around 2.4% and a prevalence of 2.6%. The geographical distribution of cases and deaths and its ethnic correlation are also presented. This study points out the necessity of governmental and private organizations working together to improve public awareness and stimulate social distancing to curb the viral infection, especially in critical places with high poverty.

Assessing the nationwide impact of COVID-19 mitigation policies on the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

COVID-19 is now identified in almost all countries in the world, with poorer regions being particularly more disadvantaged to efficiently mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. In the absence of efficient therapeutics or large-scale vaccination, control strategies are currently based on non-pharmaceutical interventions, comprising changes in population behavior and governmental interventions, among which the prohibition of mass gatherings, closure of non-essential establishments, quarantine and movement restrictions. In this work we analyzed the effects of 707 governmental interventions published up to May 22, 2020, and population adherence thereof, on the dynamics of COVID-19 cases across all 27 Brazilian states, with emphasis on state capitals and remaining inland cities. A generalized SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model with a time-varying transmission rate (TR), that considers transmission by asymptomatic individuals, is presented. We analyze the effect of both the extent of enforced measures across Brazilian states and population movement on the changes in the TR and effective reproduction number. The social mobility reduction index, a measure of population movement, together with the stringency index, adapted to incorporate the degree of restrictions imposed by governmental regulations, were used in conjunction to quantify and compare the effects of varying degrees of policy strictness across Brazilian states. Our results show that population adherence to social distance recommendations plays an important role for the effectiveness of interventions and represents a major challenge to the control of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries.

Assessing the nationwide impact of COVID-19 mitigation policies on the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

COVID-19 is now identified in almost all countries in the world, with poorer regions being particularly more disadvantaged to efficiently mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. In the absence of efficient therapeutics or large-scale vaccination, control strategies are currently based on non-pharmaceutical interventions, comprising changes in population behavior and governmental interventions, among which the prohibition of mass gatherings, closure of non-essential establishments, quarantine and movement restrictions. In this work we analyzed the effects of 707 governmental interventions published up to May 22, 2020, and population adherence thereof, on the dynamics of COVID-19 cases across all 27 Brazilian states, with emphasis on state capitals and remaining inland cities. A generalized SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model with a time-varying transmission rate (TR), that considers transmission by asymptomatic individuals, is presented. We analyze the effect of both the extent of enforced measures across Brazilian states and population movement on the changes in the TR and effective reproduction number. The social mobility reduction index, a measure of population movement, together with the stringency index, adapted to incorporate the degree of restrictions imposed by governmental regulations, were used in conjunction to quantify and compare the effects of varying degrees of policy strictness across Brazilian states. Our results show that population adherence to social distance recommendations plays an important role for the effectiveness of interventions and represents a major challenge to the control of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries.

Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil

Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Manaus, Brazil, resurged in late 2020 despite previously high levels of infection. Genome sequencing of viruses sampled in Manaus between November 2020 and January 2021 revealed the emergence and circulation of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern. Lineage P.1 acquired 17 mutations, including a trio in the spike protein (K417T, E484K, and N501Y) associated with increased binding to the human ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) receptor. Molecular clock analysis shows that P.1 emergence occurred around mid-November 2020 and was preceded by a period of faster molecular evolution. Using a two-category dynamical model that integrates genomic and mortality data, we estimate that P.1 may be 1.7- to 2.4-fold more transmissible and that previous (non-P.1) infection provides 54 to 79% of the protection against infection with P.1 that it provides against non-P.1 lineages. Enhanced global genomic surveillance of variants of concern, which may exhibit increased transmissibility and/or immune evasion, is critical to accelerate pandemic responsiveness.

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Esteio, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Brazil is the third country most affected by Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), but viral evolution in municipality resolution is still poorly understood in Brazil and it is crucial to understand the epidemiology of viral spread. We aimed to track molecular evolution and spread of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Esteio (Southern Brazil) using phylogenetics and phylodynamics inferences from 21 new genomes in global and regional context. Importantly, the case fatality rate (CFR) in Esteio (3.26%) is slightly higher compared to the Rio Grande do Sul (RS) state (2.56%) and the entire Brazil (2.74%).

RESULTS

We provided a comprehensive view of mutations from a representative sampling from May to October 2020, highlighting two frequent mutations in spike glycoprotein (D614G and V1176F), an emergent mutation (E484K) in spike Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) characteristic of the B.1.351 and P.1 lineages, and the adjacent replacement of 2 amino acids in Nucleocapsid phosphoprotein (R203K and G204R). E484K was found in two genomes from mid-October, which is the earliest description of this mutation in Southern Brazil. Lineages containing this substitution must be subject of intense surveillance due to its association with immune evasion. We also found two epidemiologically-related clusters, including one from patients of the same neighborhood. Phylogenetics and phylodynamics analysis demonstrates multiple introductions of the Brazilian most prevalent lineages (B.1.1.33 and B.1.1.248) and the establishment of Brazilian lineages ignited from the Southeast to other Brazilian regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data show the value of correlating clinical, epidemiological and genomic information for the understanding of viral evolution and its spatial distribution over time. This is of paramount importance to better inform policy making strategies to fight COVID-19.

Deciphering the introduction and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Colombian Amazon Basin

BACKGROUND

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has forced health authorities across the world to take important decisions to curtail its spread. Genomic epidemiology has emerged as a valuable tool to understand introductions and spread of the virus in a specific geographic location.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Here, we report the sequences of 59 SARS-CoV-2 samples from inhabitants of the Colombian Amazonas department. The viral genomes were distributed in two robust clusters within the distinct GISAID clades GH and G. Spatial-temporal analyses revealed two independent introductions of SARS-CoV-2 in the region, one around April 1, 2020 associated with a local transmission, and one around April 2, 2020 associated with other South American genomes (Uruguay and Brazil). We also identified ten lineages circulating in the Amazonas department including the P.1 variant of concern (VOC).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study represents the first genomic epidemiology investigation of SARS-CoV-2 in one of the territories with the highest report of indigenous communities of the country. Such findings are essential to decipher viral transmission, inform on global spread and to direct implementation of infection prevention and control measures for these vulnerable populations, especially, due to the recent circulation of one of the variants of concern (P.1) associated with major transmissibility and possible reinfections.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the recently discovered coronavirus SARS-Cov-2. The disease became pandemic affecting many countries globally, including Brazil. Considering the expansion process and particularities during the initial stages of the epidemic, we aimed to analyze the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 occurrence and to identify priority risk areas in Minas Gerais State, Southeast Brazil. An ecological study was performed considering all data from human cases of COVID-19 confirmed from the epidemiological week (EW) 11 (March 08, 2020) to EW 26 (June 27, 2020). Crude and smoothed incidence rates were used to analyze the distribution of disease patterns based on global and local indicators of spatial association and space-time risk assessment. Positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence were found. Our results suggest that the metropolitan region of the State capital Belo Horizonte (MRBH) and Vale do Rio Doce mesoregions, as major epidemic foci in the beginning of the expansion process, have had important influence on the dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 in Minas Gerais State. Triangulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaiba region presented the highest risk of infection. In addition, six statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters were identified in the State, three at high risk and three at low risk. Our findings contribute to a greater understanding of the space-time disease dynamic and discuss strategies for identification of priority areas for COVID-19 surveillance and control.

SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity in Venezuela: Predominance of D614G variants and analysis of one outbreak

SARS-CoV-2 is the new coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 disease. The first two cases of COVID-19 were detected in Venezuela on March 13, 2020. The aim of this study was the genetic characterization of Venezuelan SARS-CoV-2 isolates. A total of 7 full SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences were obtained by Sanger sequencing, from patients of different regions of Venezuela, mainly from the beginning of the epidemic. Ten out of 11 isolates (6 complete genomes and 4 partial spike genomic regions) belonged to lineage B, bearing the D614G mutation in the Spike protein. Isolates from the first outbreak that occurred in the Margarita Island harbored an in-frame deletion in its sequence, without amino acids 83–85 of the NSP1 of the ORF1. The search for deletions in 48,635 sequences showed that the NSP1 gene exhibit the highest frequency of deletions along the whole genome. Structural analysis suggests a change in the N-terminal domain with the presence of this deletion. In contrast, isolates circulating later in this island lacked the deletion, suggesting new introductions to the island after this first outbreak. In conclusion, a high diversity of SARS-CoV-2 isolates were found circulating in Venezuela, with predominance of the D614G mutation. The first small outbreak in Margarita Island seemed to be associated with a strain carrying a small deletion in the NSP1 protein, but these isolates do not seem to be responsible for the larger outbreak which started in July.

Evolutionary Dynamics and Dissemination Pattern of the SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.33 During the Early Pandemic Phase in Brazil

A previous study demonstrates that most of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) Brazilian strains fell in three local clades that were introduced from Europe around late February 2020. Here we investigated in more detail the origin of the major and most widely disseminated SARS-CoV-2 Brazilian lineage B.1.1.33. We recovered 190 whole viral genomes collected from 13 Brazilian states from February 29 to April 31, 2020 and combined them with other B.1.1 genomes collected globally. Our genomic survey confirms that lineage B.1.1.33 is responsible for a variable fraction of the community viral transmissions in Brazilian states, ranging from 2% of all SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Pernambuco to 80% of those from Rio de Janeiro. We detected a moderate prevalence (5-18%) of lineage B.1.1.33 in some South American countries and a very low prevalence (<1%) in North America, Europe, and Oceania. Our study reveals that lineage B.1.1.33 evolved from an ancestral clade, here designated B.1.1.33-like, that carries one of the two B.1.1.33 synapomorphic mutations. The B.1.1.33-like lineage may have been introduced from Europe or arose in Brazil in early February 2020 and a few weeks later gave origin to the lineage B.1.1.33. These SARS-CoV-2 lineages probably circulated during February 2020 and reached all Brazilian regions and multiple countries around the world by mid-March, before the implementation of air travel restrictions in Brazil. Our phylodynamic analysis also indicates that public health interventions were partially effective to control the expansion of lineage B.1.1.33 in Rio de Janeiro because its median effective reproductive number (R e ) was drastically reduced by about 66% during March 2020, but failed to bring it to below one. Continuous genomic surveillance of lineage B.1.1.33 might provide valuable information about epidemic dynamics and the effectiveness of public health interventions in some Brazilian states.

Early transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa: An epidemiological and phylogenetic report

OBJECTIVES

The Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA) was formed to investigate the introduction and understand the early transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in South-Africa.

DESIGN

This paper presents the first results from this group, which is a molecular epidemiological study of the first 21 SARS-CoV-2 whole genomes sampled in the first port of entry - KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) - during the first month of the epidemic. By combining this with calculations of the effective reproduction number (R), it aimed to shed light on the patterns of infections in South Africa.

RESULTS

Two of the largest provinces - Gauteng and KZN - had a slow growth rate for the number of detected cases, while the epidemic spread faster in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape. The estimates of transmission potential suggested a decrease towards R = 1 since the first cases and deaths, but a subsequent estimated R average of 1.39 between 6-18 May 2020. It was also demonstrated that early transmission in KZN was associated with multiple international introductions and dominated by lineages B1 and B. Evidence for locally acquired infections in a hospital in Durban within the first month of the epidemic was also provided.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa was very heterogeneous in its spatial dimension, with many distinct introductions of SARS-CoV2 in KZN and evidence of nosocomial transmission, which inflated early mortality in KZN. The epidemic at the local level was still developing and NGS-SA aimed to clarify the dynamics in South Africa and devise the most effective measures as the outbreak evolved.

Multiple Introductions Followed by Ongoing Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2 at One of the Largest Metropolitan Areas of Northeast Brazil

Multiple epicenters of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have emerged since the first pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, such as Italy, USA, and Brazil. Brazil is the third-most affected country worldwide, but genomic sequences of SARS-CoV-2 strains are mostly restricted to states from the Southeast region. Pernambuco state, located in the Northeast region, is the sixth most affected Brazilian state, but very few genomic sequences from the strains circulating in this region are available. We sequenced 101 strains of SARS-CoV-2 from patients presenting Covid-19 symptoms that reside in Pernambuco. Phylogenetic reconstructions revealed that all genomes belong to the B lineage and most of the samples (88%) were classified as lineage B.1.1. We detected multiple viral introductions from abroad (likely from Europe) as well as six local B.1.1 clades composed by Pernambuco only strains. Local clades comprise sequences from the capital city (Recife) and other country-side cities, corroborating the community spread between different municipalities of the state. These findings demonstrate that different from Southeastern Brazilian states where the epidemics were majorly driven by one dominant lineage (B.1.1.28 or B.1.1.33), the early epidemic phase at the Pernambuco state was driven by multiple B.1.1 lineages seeded through both national and international traveling.

The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up report

We previously described a mathematical model to simulate the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and try to predict how this outbreak might evolve in the following two months when the pandemic cases will drop significantly. Our original paper prepared in March 2020 analyzed the outbreaks of COVID-19 in the US and its selected states to identify the rise, peak, and decrease of cases within a given geographic population, as well as a rough calculation of accumulated total cases in this population from the beginning to the end of June 2020. The current report will describe how well the later actual trend from March to June fit our model and prediction. Similar analyses are also conducted to include countries other than the US. From such a wide global data analysis, our results demonstrated that different US states and countries showed dramatically different patterns of pandemic trend. The values and limitations of our modelling are discussed.

SARS-CoV-2 sequencing: The technological initiative to strengthen early warning systems for public health emergencies in Latin America and the Caribbean

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 is a public health problem on a scale unprecedented in the last 100 years, as has been the response focused on the rapid genomic characterization of SARS-CoV-2 in virtually all regions of the planet. This pandemic emerged during the era of genomic epidemiology, a science fueled by continued advances in next-generation sequencing. Since its recent appearance, genomic epidemiology included the precise identification of new lineages or species of pathogens and the reconstruction of their genetic variability in real time, evidenced in past outbreaks of influenza H1N1, MERS, and SARS. However, the global and uncontrolled scale of this pandemic created a scenario where genomic epidemiology was put into practice en masse, from the rapid identification of SARS-CoV-2 to the registration of new lineages and their active surveillance throughout the world. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the availability of genomic data on circulating pathogens in several Latin America and the Caribbean countries was scarce or nil. With the arrival of SARS-CoV-2, this scenario changed significantly, although the amount of available information remains scarce and, in countries such as Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Chile, the genomic information of SARS-CoV-2 was obtained mainly by research groups in genomic epidemiology rather than the product of a public health surveillance policy or program. This indicates the need to establish public health policies aimed at implementing genomic epidemiology as a tool to strengthen surveillance and early warning systems against threats to public health in the region.

Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.

How limitations in data of health surveillance impact decision making in the Covid-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT The Covid-19 pandemic signaled an alert to all countries about controlling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to have fewer infected individuals, causing less stress to all health systems, and saving lives. As a result, multiple governments, including national and local levels of government, went through several degrees of social distancing measures. The decision process regarding the flexibilization of social distancing measures requires evidence of incidence decrease, available capacity in the health systems to absorb eventual epidemic waves, and serological prevalence studies designed to estimate the proportion of individuals with antibody protection. The trend criterium usually given by the effective reproduction number might be misguided if there are significant delays for reporting cases. For instance, the reproduction number for Niterói, in the state of Rio de Janeiro, went down from a value of approximately 3 to little more than 1. Even with all measures, the reproduction number did not get below R<1, which would demonstrate a more controlled scenario. Finally, a prediction method permits adjusting the notification delay and analyzing the current status of the epidemics.