Economic Impact of the 2015 MERS Outbreak on the Republic of Korea's Tourism-Related Industries

From isolation to revival: trade recovery amid global health crises

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of designing effective trade recovery measures in response to global health events (GHEs). This study combines international trade risk management theory and multi-case comparative analysis of past GHEs to present a theoretical framework for designing national trade recovery measures for future events.

RESULTS

The research finds that during GHEs, trade risks shift to fundamental uncertainty, requiring spatial-temporal-subject dimension recovery measures. The study suggests changing the focus of trade recovery policy design from emergency-oriented and single-dimension measures to reserve-oriented and enduring-effect measures of comprehensive dimensions at micro- and macroeconomic levels.

CONCLUSION

The study contributes to the debate on managing trade risks in times of crisis, where there is a need to develop effective trade recovery measures that account for the complexities of global trade and the unique challenges of GHEs. The findings provide practical guidance for trade officials and policymakers to design measures in response to GHEs to improve a country's overall trade recovery.

COVID-19 incidence of poverty: How has disease affected the cost of purchasing food in Pakistan

COVID-19 harms health and income generation activities. The pandemic caused poverty, and food crisis in the most vulnerable and underprivileged segments. Economic turbulence and massive poverty during epidemic period probably resulted in short-term food insecurity and low food consumption. Based on these concerns, the current study examined how COVID-19 has impacted Pakistan's cost of purchasing food. The study surveyed total 1067 Punjab and Sindh residents in Pakistan, from July to October 2021. A structural equation model was used to examine the interrelationship among food intake, food purchasing cost, and health effects. We investigated whether people experienced substantial effects from the loss of a source of income, work hours, debt burden, and food inflation on their food intake. These circumstances all negatively affected food intake, reducing food consumption. Besides COVID-19's effects on direct income, 41% more people fall into poverty and 23% can't afford healthy food. People's socioeconomic circumstances affects poverty levels and affordable healthy food costs. The cost of purchasing food is significantly correlated with health outcomes. A significant and positive correlation between COVID-19 and income effects, and a negative correlation between food consumption and adverse income effects was explored. In addition, people increased their demand for food assistance during COVID-19 to mitigate negative income shocks. People who cannot afford minimal food costs should be offered food through mobile vehicles or delivery channels in the short term. Cash transfers or subsidies could also be provided to the needy during crisis time.

How heterogeneity in density dependence affects disease spread: when lifestyle matters

People's lifestyles play a major role in disease risk. Some employment sectors and transport modes involve fixed exposures regardless of community size, while in other settings exposure tracks with population density. MERS-CoV, a coronavirus discovered in Saudi Arabia in 2012 closely related to those causing SARS and COVID-19, appears to need extended contact time for transmission, making some segments of a community at greater risk than others. We model mathematically how heterogeneity in contact rate structure impacts disease spread, using as a case study a MERS outbreak in two Saudi Arabian communities. We divide the at-risk population into segments with exposure rates either independent of population density or density-dependent. Analysis shows disease spread is minimized for intermediate size populations with a limited proportion of individuals in the density-independent group. In the case study, the high proportion of density-independent exposure may explain the historical outbreak's extinction in the larger city.

Tourist distribution in Northern Mediterranean Basin countries: 2004-2020

PURPOSE

The feasibility of measuring the touristic ecosystem in European countries with a Mediterranean coast based on various parameters, including diversity, turnover, and the number of tourists, was investigated in this study. The data from the period between 2004 and 2020 were analyzed.

METHODOLOGY

A distribution analysis of annual tourist gains was conducted, and the distribution of incoming tourists across the countries was examined based on their area, using Atkinson, Theil, and Hoover inequality indices. Secondary data from the World Bank were utilized by the authors for the 13 countries studied. It was suggested by the authors that the Mediterranean region could be analyzed based on factors such as the length of the coast, the number and type of hotel beds, and the volume of coastal tourism. This study can be expressed as a mixed methodology supported by bibliometric analysis.

FINDINGS

An overall improvement in the distribution of tourists was indicated by the results of the analysis, with the exception of a decline in 2016 and 2020, as confirmed by all three indices. The most significant decline in 2020 was shown by the Hoover Index.

ORIGINALITY

This study is a significant contribution to the existing literature, as it is the first to analyze the distribution of tourists considering the Mediterranean Basin coast length and the number of tourists of the illustrated countries, using the Atkinson, Theil, and Hoover inequality indices. The study was deemed original and supported by bibliometric analysis. The results of this study have important managerial implications.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Associated Infections

Viral infections are some of the most common sources of respiratory illness in pediatric and adult populations worldwide. Influenza and coronaviruses are viral pathogens that could lead to severe respiratory illness and death. More recently, respiratory illness from coronaviruses, accounts for more than 1 million deaths in the United States alone. This article will explore the epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by coronavirus-2, and Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome.

COVID research across the social sciences in 2020: a bibliometric approach

Research on the COVID-19 pandemic has produced an incredible volume of social science research. To explore the initial areas of COVID-19 scholarship, the following study uses bibliometric co-citation network analysis on data from Clarivate's Web of Science database to analyze 3327 peer-reviewed studies published during the first year of the pandemic and their 107,396 shared references. Findings indicate nine distinct disciplinary research clusters centered around a single medical core of COVID-19 pandemic research. Topics ranging from tourism collapse, fear scales, financial contagion, health surveillance, shifts in crime rates, quarantine psychology, and collective trauma among others are found to have emerged in this initial phase of research as covid spread across the world. A corresponding infodemic highlights early communication challenges and a broader need to thwart misinformation. As this body of work continues to grow across the social sciences, key intersections, shared themes, and long-term implications of this historic event are brought into view.

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Pandemic Uncertainty on International Tourism: What do We Learn From COVID-19?

Uncertainty is an overarching aspect of life that is particularly pertinent to the present COVID-19 pandemic crisis; as seen by the pandemic's rapid worldwide spread, the nature and level of uncertainty have possibly increased due to the possible disconnects across national borders. The entire economy, especially the tourism industry, has been dramatically impacted by COVID-19. In the current study, we explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and pandemic uncertainty (PU) on inbound international tourism by using data gathered from Italy, Spain, and the United States for the years 1995-2021. Using the Quantile on Quantile (QQ) approach, the study confirms that EPU and PU negatively affected inbound tourism in all states. Wavelet-based Granger causality further reveals bi-directional causality running from EPU to inbound tourism and unidirectional causality from PU to inbound tourism in the long run. The overall findings show that COVID-19 has had a strong negative effect on tourism. So resilient skills are required to restore a sustainable tourism industry.

Predicting Athlete Intentions for Using Sports Complexes in the Post-Pandemic Era

In recent years, the concept of health has gradually fit into people's lives through the government's promotion. The indoor sports complex is becoming more and more popular, offering people the opportunity to engage in physical and recreational activities regardless of weather conditions. Psychological and social abundance is the key to improving happiness, and the most important thing is to treat and care for yourself. Many fitness venues have emerged to provide athletes with a wide range of choices. However, the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is caused by a virus mainly transmitted through direct contact or air droplets, has had a severe impact on indoor gym users. Therefore, based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Health-Promoting Lifestyle (HPL), this research investigated athletes' behavioral intentions regarding sports halls and perceived risks as interfering variables. For data collection, we collected data samples from sports complexes athletes in Taiwan. A total of 263 responses were analyzed via SPSS 20.0 (IBM Corporation, New York, NY, USA) and AMOS 20.0 (IBM Corporation, New York, NY, USA) seis tests. The study's results indicate that health-promoting lifestyle cognition has a positive and significant effect on behavioral intention; athletes' attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control significantly affects the behavioral intention of using the facilities in a sports complex. Athletes' risk perceptions have an interference effect between HPL, attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, and behavioral intentions of using the facilities in a sports complex. Sports venue managers can refer to the results of this project to develop marketing strategies and promoting.

Topics and destinations in comments on YouTube tourism videos during the Covid-19 pandemic

This study examines the comments posted on tourism-related YouTube videos during the Covid-19 pandemic to establish sustainable development strategies in destinations. Its objectives were: (i) to identify the topics of discussion, (ii) to establish the perceptions of tourism in a pandemic crisis, and (iii) to identify the destinations mentioned. The data was collected between January and May 2020. 39,225 comments were extracted in different languages and globally through the YouTube API. The data processing was carried out using the word association technique. The results show that the most discussed topics were: "people," "country," "tourist," "place," "tourism," "see," "visit," "travel," "covid-19," "life," and "live," which are the focus of the comments made on the perceptions found and represent the attraction factors shown by the videos and the emotions perceived in the comments. The findings show that users' perceptions are related to risks since the "Covid-19" pandemic is associated with the impact on tourism, people, destinations, and affected countries. The destinations in the comments were: India, Nepal, China, Kerala, France, Thailand, and Europe. The research has theoretical implications concerning tourists' perceptions of destinations since new perceptions associated with destinations during the pandemic are shown. Such concerns involve tourist safety and work at the destinations. This research has practical implications since, during the pandemic, companies can develop prevention plans. Also, governments could implement sustainable development plans that contain measures so that tourists can make their trips during a pandemic.

Safety in Rats of a Novel Nasal Spray Formulation for the Prevention of Airborne Viral Infections

Hexedra+^® is a nasal spray containing hydroxypropyl methylcellulose, beta-cyclodextrin, and usnic acid. It has been developed with the aim of reducing the risk of transmission of airborne viral infections, with particular reference to influenza and COVID-19. As part of the preclinical development of the product, we carried out a study on thirty male Wistar rats divided into three study groups and treated with Hexedra+, an alternative formulation containing a double concentration of usnic acid (0.015% instead of 0.0075%) or saline solution. Products were administered at the dose of 30 μL into each nostril, three times a day for seven consecutive days by means of a micropipette. By the end of the treatment period, no significant changes were observed in body weight. Histological examination of nasal mucosa and soft organs did not show any significant difference in the three study groups. Serum transaminase level remained in the normal limit in all the animals treated. The serum level of usnic acid was measured in order to assess the absorption of the molecule through the nasal mucosa. By the end of the study period, the usnic acid serum level was negligible in all the animals treated. In conclusion, the safety profile of Hexedra+ appears favorable in the animal model studied.

The impact of COVID-19 on international tourism flows to Italy: Evidence from mobile phone data

This paper analyses the response to the COVID-19 pandemic of inbound tourism to Italy looking at variation across countries and provinces. To this end, it uses weekly data on the number of foreign visitors in Italy from January 2019 until February 2021, as provided by a primary mobile telephony operator. We document a very robust negative relation at the province level between the local epidemic situation and the inflow of foreign travellers. Moreover, provinces with a historically higher share in art-tourism, and those that used to be 'hotel intensive' were hit the most during the pandemic, while provinces with a more prevalent orientation to business tourism proved to be more resilient. Entry restrictions with varying degrees of strictness played a key role in explaining cross-country patterns. After controlling for these restrictions, we observed that the number of travellers that could arrive by private means of transportation decreased proportionally less. Overall, this evidence emphasises that contagion risk considerations played a significant role in shaping international tourism patterns during the pandemic.

Economic impact of acute respiratory disease pandemics: A scoping review

Background

The economic impact of acute respiratory disease pandemics has yet to be specifically systematically reviewed. The aim of this scoping review is to identify and classify the economic impacts and its values and ranges.

Materials and Methods

We conducted a literature search across three key databases using an extensive list of keywords. Then, we included studies which explored direct and indirect costs as well as broader economic impact associated with different nine acute respiratory diseases, i.e., pandemic and seasonal influenza, avian influenza, equine influenza, swine influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome, coronavirus disease 2019, Middle East respiratory syndrome, H1N1, and H7N9.

Results

We included 62 studies in English language between 1987 and 2020, mostly from the countries of East Asia and Pacific pertinent. We classified the economic impact into 5 main categories and 18 subcategories. The main categories were macroeconomic impacts, impacts on health cost, industry, businesses and trade, and education.

Conclusion

Respiratory disease pandemics have widely impacted different sectors of economy such as the direct cost on macroeconomic, providing and receiving health services, disease management, industries, business and trade, education, and indirect costs due to productivity losses. However, lots of the reviewed studies were unable to quantify the actual economic cost of these impacts. This made it challenging to conduct any kind of quantitative comparison of the results. A key priority for future research is to develop standard methods to quantify the broader economic costs of respiratory disease pandemics. Understanding the total economic impact of respiratory disease pandemics is a key step to inform national and international priority setting for disease prevention and pandemic control interventions.

A comparison of conventional and advanced electroanalytical methods to detect SARS-CoV-2 virus: A concise review

Respiratory viruses are a serious threat to human wellbeing that can cause pandemic disease. As a result, it is critical to identify virus in a timely, sensitive, and precise manner. The present novel coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) disease outbreak has increased these concerns. The research of developing various methods for COVID-19 virus identification is one of the most rapidly growing research areas. This review article compares and addresses recent improvements in conventional and advanced electroanalytical approaches for detecting COVID-19 virus. The popular conventional methods such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR), loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), serology test, and computed tomography (CT) scan with artificial intelligence require specialized equipment, hours of processing, and specially trained staff. Many researchers, on the other hand, focused on the invention and expansion of electrochemical and/or bio sensors to detect SARS-CoV-2, demonstrating that they could show a significant role in COVID-19 disease control. We attempted to meticulously summarize recent advancements, compare conventional and electroanalytical approaches, and ultimately discuss future prospective in the field. We hope that this review will be helpful to researchers who are interested in this interdisciplinary field and desire to develop more innovative virus detection methods.

The pros and cons of entry restrictions: are entry restrictions really effective in preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2?

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly spread worldwide, leading the World Health Organization to declare coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic. To curb the unchecked spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection, most countries have enforced travel restrictions. However, it is debatable whether such restrictions are effective in containing infections and preventing pandemics. Rather, they may negatively impact economies and diplomatic relationships. Each government should conduct an extensive and appropriate analysis of its national economy, diplomatic status, and COVID-19 preparedness to decide whether it is best to restrict entering travelers. Even if travelers from other countries are allowed entry, extensive contact tracing is required to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In addition, governments can implement “travel bubbles,” which allow the quarantine-free flow of people among countries with relatively low levels of community transmission. An accurate evaluation of the benefits and losses due to entry restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic would be helpful in determining whether entry restrictions are an effective measure to reduce the spread of infection in future pandemics.

Global Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases

Our world is undergoing rapid planetary changes driven by human activities, often mediated by economic incentives and resource management, affecting all life on Earth. Concurrently, many infectious diseases have recently emerged or spread into new populations. Mounting evidence suggests that global change-including climate change, land-use change, urbanization, and global movement of individuals, species, and goods-may be accelerating disease emergence by reshaping ecological systems in concert with socioeconomic factors. Here, we review insights, approaches, and mechanisms by which global change drives disease emergence from a disease ecology perspective. We aim to spur more interdisciplinary collaboration with economists and identification of more effective and sustainable interventions to prevent disease emergence. While almost all infectious diseases change in response to global change, the mechanisms and directions of these effects are system specific, requiring new, integrated approaches to disease control that recognize linkages between environmental and economic sustainability and human and planetary health.

Risk assessment of novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreaks in the border areas of southwest China

This study aimed to assess the risk of coronavirus disease 2019 in the border areas of southwest China, so as to provide guidance to targeted prevention and control measures in the border areas of different risk levels. We assessed the dependence of the risk of an outbreak in the southwest China from imported cases on key parameters such as the cumulative number of infectious diseases in the border area of southwest China in the past 3 years; the connectivity of the neighboring countries with China's Southwest border, including baseline travel numbers, travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the length of borders with neighboring countries; the cumulative number of close contacts of coronavirus disease 2019 patients; (iv) the population density in border areas; the efficacy of control measures in border areas; experts estimated risks in border areas based on experience and then given a score; Spearman correlation and Logistic regression models were used to analyze the associated factors of novel coronavirus. According to the correlation of various factors, we assigned values to each parameter, calculated the risk score of each county, and then divided each county into high, medium, and low risk according to the sick score and took different control measure according to different risk levels. Finally, the total risk level was evaluated according to the Harvard disease risk index model. The number of infectious diseases in the past 3 years, travel numbers, travel frequencies, experts estimated risk score, effect of travel restrictions, and the number of close contacts were associated with the incidence of new coronary pneumonia. It is concluded that bilateral transportation convenience is a risk factor for new coronary pneumonia, (odds ratio = 9.23, 95% confidence interval, 1.99-42.73); the number of observers is a risk factor for new coronary pneumonia (odds ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.08). We found that in countries with travel numbers, travel frequencies, and experts' estimated risk scores were the influencing factors of novel coronavirus. The effect of travel restrictions and the cumulative number of close contacts of the case are risk factors for novel coronavirus.

The Case of South Korean Airlines-Within-Airlines Model: Helping Full-Service Carriers Challenge Low-Cost Carriers

The South Korean aviation market has grown rapidly since the emergence of Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs), and in response to this emergence, the two Full-Service Carriers (FSCs) of South Korea adopted the airline-within-airline (AWA) model and introduced their LCCs to compete with independent LCCs (ILCCs). A few years back, ILCCs filed a petition against Asiana Airlines, one of the two FSCs in South Korea, as Asiana Air was launching another subsidiary on the model of AWA. This, interestingly, indicates that AWA are doing well in the South Korean aviation market. However, a detailed study is required to evaluate the performance of this model, as in the global market the success of AWA is blurred. This study attempts to shed light on the performance of South Korean AWA, which may provide fruitful insights considering the post-COVID-19 dynamics of the aviation market.

COVID-19 and tourism: What can we learn from the past?

The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on tourism flows is without precedent in terms of speed and severity. In this paper, we try to infer a possible future scenario for the tourism sector, evaluating the medium-term effects of past pandemics on tourist arrivals. We find that pandemics lead to a persistent decline in tourist arrivals, with the effects being larger in developing and emerging countries. Interestingly, the effects are heterogeneous across countries and episodes, and depend on several economic conditions such as the overall health system performance, the severity of the shock, and the uncertainty induced by the pandemic event.

Does hotel management matter to overcoming the COVID-19 crisis? The Spanish case

This paper analyses the influence that the initial actions and strategies pursued by hotel managers have on the recovery of occupancy after a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. To do this, a specific survey is carried out on managers of Spanish hotels. The main findings show that labour actions, especially plans for temporary employment regulations, innovation and differentiation strategies, reorientation to closer markets and obtaining information from official sources as a guarantee of their certainty, are the measures that have a greater impact on the possibilities of recovering hotel activity. In addition, government measures that contribute to the improvement of the financial situation of firms can also play a relevant role in hotel recovery.

COVID-19 preventive measures and restaurant customers’ intention to dine out: the role of brand trust and perceived risk

This study examined the roles of perceived preventive measures and brand trust on the intention to dine out at restaurants during the reopening period in the United States. A total of 587 participants, recruited through a market research company completed the data. Multiple regression was used for data analysis. The results indicated that perceived importance of preventive measures enhanced customers’ intention to dine out via brand trust. Perceived risk moderated the relationship between perceived importance of preventive measures and brand trust. The study provided significant implications for restaurant operation during the reopening period.

A Regional Economy’s Resistance to the COVID-19 Shock: Sales Revenues of Micro-, Small-, and Medium-Sized Enterprises in South Korea

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic that has heavily impacted not only the health sector, but also the economic sector in general. Many countries have projected a negative economic impact, and the effect on micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) is predicted to be significantly large. This study estimated the regional resistance of MSME sales revenues and identified the regional economic factors that affect resistance by analyzing South Korea, a country with one of the lowest economic impact projections from COVID-19. Resistance was estimated by comparing sales revenues and changes in resistance observed during the early COVID-19 period to those recorded in the same weeks (weeks 6 to 9) of 2019. The factors that affect regional resistance were determined by conducting robust regression and spatial regression analyses. The results show that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, a direct risk factor, is negatively related to regional resilience, while diversity is positively related to regional resistance. To improve the regional resistance against uncertain events, this study recommends increased diversity among regional industrial structures to reduce the duration of the early shock of an unexpected adverse event.

Economic Impacts of SARS/MERS/COVID‐19 in Asian Countries

This paper surveys the recent literature on the economic impacts of SARS, MERS, and COVID‐19, which Asian countries have experienced in the past two decades. In particular, we provide a detailed summary of how each of the past infectious diseases has impacted on the Asian economies and the extent of that impact. This paper also documents how the governments of Asian countries have responded to the COVID‐19 shocks with their economic policies, and discusses the effectiveness of these economic policies to mitigate the COVID‐19 shocks on their economies.

The Post Pandemic Revitalization Plan for the Medical Tourism Sector in South Korea: A Brief Review

The significant impacts of recent infectious diseases (MERS, COVID-19) demand fundamental changes and alternatives in different markets, such as tourism and the medical tourism industry. In this study, we aimed to have a historical investigation on how infectious diseases have affected the tourism industry in Korea, to reach practical implications for managing the medical tourism sector. The impact of global infectious diseases, including MERS, and COVID-19, on the tourism industry was studied in South Korea. First, the available information was collected to clarify how these two outbreaks have impacted the tourism market in South Korea, and then the government’s countermeasures were studied. Investigating among the policies resulted in practical implications for the post-pandemic revitalizing plan for the medical tourism market. The infectious outbreak caused a significant decrease in the number of inbound tourists to South Korea, moreover, the crisis response system of the government has been useful so far. Hence, several practical implications can be achieved for the medical tourism market. A framework is suggested which involves 5 stages of strategies to revitalize medical tourism market. It presents remedies to revitalize the medical tourism industry and to enter the global market again. Korea’s quarantine model, which succeeded in preventing COVID-19, can be a preemptive response to another pandemic in the future. The medical tourism industry policy based on Korea’s quarantine model will contribute to the revitalization of the international medical tourism industry after COVID-19.

Geospatial multivariate analysis of COVID-19: a global perspective

This manuscript presents a geospatial and temporal analysis of the COVID'19 along with its mortality rate worldwide and an empirical evaluation of social distance policies on economic activities. Stock Market Indices, Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), and Stringency Index values are evaluated with respect to rising COVID-19 cases based on the collected data from Jan 2020 to June 2021. The findings for the stock market index reveal the highest negative correlation coefficient value, i.e., -0.2, for the Shanghai index, representing a negative relation on stock markets, whereas the value of the correlation coefficient is minimum for Indian markets, i.e., 0.3, indicating the most impact by COVID-19 spread. Further, the results concerning PMI show that the highest value of the correlation coefficient is for the China i.e., -0.52, points to the sharpest pace of contraction. This reflects the lower value of the correlation indicating that the economy is on the way of growth, which can be seen from the PMI value of the various countries. The manuscript presents a novel geospatial model by empirically evaluating the correlation coefficient of COVID-19 with stock market index, PMI, and stringency index to understand the effect of COVID-19 on the global economy.

Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza

We evaluate the 1968 H3N2 Flu pandemic’s economic cost in a cross-section of 52 countries. Using excess mortality rates as a proxy for the country-specific severity of the pandemic, we find that the average mortality rate (0.0062% per pandemic wave) was associated with a decline in output of 2.4% over the two pandemic waves. Our estimates also suggest the losses in consumption (-1.9%), investment (-1.2%), and productivity (-1.9%) over the two pandemic waves. The results are robust across regressions using alternative measures of mortality and output loss. The study adds to the current literature new empirical evidence on the economic consequences of the past pandemics in light of the potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on productivity.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Economic Growth: Theory and Simulation

The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has caused profound consequences on world economy. In order to explore the long-term impact of the pandemic on economic growth and the effects of different policy responses, this paper combines economic theory with epidemiological model to construct an interdisciplinary model, in which labor supply is dynamically constrained by pandemic conditions. Analysis of model equilibrium suggests that outbreaks of infectious disease reduce labor supply and negatively affect economic output. The accumulation of health capital can suppress the spread of disease and improve the recovery rate of infected individuals, which will alleviate the labor supply constraint caused by the pandemic and lead to an increase in output and consumption. The model is then calibrated to Chinese economy. The simulation results imply that government's public health policy can enhance the role of health capital in promoting economic growth. But the marginal effect of certain policies is diminishing. Therefore, the government needs to balance pandemic prevention and control costs and marginal benefits when formulating public health policies. When the pandemic is under control, the resumption of production is feasible and the economic stimulus package could lead to economic recovery.

A reflection on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Australian businesses: Toward a taxonomy of vulnerabilities

The extant literature paints a grim picture of the COVID-19 impact on businesses around the world. However, in neither case has there been an attempt to evaluate the disproportionate impacts of the pandemic on the operation of different business sectors. To remedy this situation, this study utilises a cluster analysis to develop a taxonomy of vulnerabilities based on the industry-specific vulnerability indicators for 83 business sectors in the economy of Australia. The proposed taxonomy groups businesses into three clusters, labelled as vulnerable to business to people (B2P), vulnerable to business networking, and vulnerable to external factors. The differing vulnerability of businesses to the recent pandemic raises a fundamental question about how best to build resilience to reduce vulnerabilities. Built on the vulnerability characteristics identified in the taxonomy, this article suggests factors that contribute to the resilience of businesses in each cluster. Further, the present paper develops a novel validation method to demonstrate the goodness of the clustering results. Business leaders and government officials might draw considerable assistance from the taxonomy of vulnerabilities presented herein to build more resilient businesses to crises.

Government Epidemic Prevention and Economic Growth Path Under Public Health Emergency: Theoretical Model and Simulation Analysis

This paper constructs a partial equilibrium model under public health emergency shocks based on economic growth theory, and investigates the relationship between government intervention and virus transmission and economic growth path. We found that both close contacts tracing measures and isolation measures are beneficial to human capital stock and economic output per capita, and the effect of close contact tracing measures is better than that of isolation measures. For infectious diseases of different intensities, economic growth pathways differed across interventions. For low contagious public health emergencies, the focus should be on the coordination of isolation and tracing measures. For highly contagious public health emergencies, strict isolation, and tracing measures have limited effect in repairing the negative economic impact of the outbreak. The theoretical model provides a basic paradigm for the future researches to study economic growth under health emergencies, with good scalability and robustness.

Mobility in times of pandemics: Evidence on the spread of COVID19 in Italy's labour market areas

We investigate the interplay between the local spread of COVID-19 and patterns of individual mobility within and across self-contained geographical areas. Conceptually, we connect the debate on regional development in the presence of shocks with the literature on spatial labour markets and address some research questions about the role of individual mobility in affecting the spread of the disease. By looking at granular flows of Facebook users moving within and across Italian labour market areas (LMAs), we analyse whether their heterogeneous internal and external mobility has had a significant impact on excess mortality. We also explore how individual mobility plays different roles in LMAs hosting industrial districts - characterised by a thicker local labour market and denser business and social interactions - and with a high presence of "essential sectors" - activities not affected by the COVID-19 containment measures taken by the Italian government at the onset of the crisis.

Implementing epidemic intelligence in the WHO African region for early detection and response to acute public health events

Epidemic intelligence activities are undertaken by the WHO Regional Office for Africa to support member states in early detection and response to outbreaks to prevent the international spread of diseases. We reviewed epidemic intelligence activities conducted by the organisation from 2017 to 2020, processes used, key results and how lessons learned can be used to strengthen preparedness, early detection and rapid response to outbreaks that may constitute a public health event of international concern. A total of 415 outbreaks were detected and notified to WHO, using both indicator-based and event-based surveillance. Media monitoring contributed to the initial detection of a quarter of all events reported. The most frequent outbreaks detected were vaccine-preventable diseases, followed by food-and-water-borne diseases, vector-borne diseases and viral haemorrhagic fevers. Rapid risk assessments generated evidence and provided the basis for WHO to trigger operational processes to provide rapid support to member states to respond to outbreaks with a potential for international spread. This is crucial in assisting member states in their obligations under the International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005). Member states in the region require scaled-up support, particularly in preventing recurrent outbreaks of infectious diseases and enhancing their event-based surveillance capacities with automated tools and processes.

Health, economic, and social implications of COVID-19 for China's rural population

This study examines the effects of local and nationwide COVID-19 disease control measures on the health and economy of China's rural population. We conducted phone surveys with 726 randomly selected village informants across seven rural Chinese provinces in February 2020. Four villages (0.55%) reported infections, and none reported deaths. Disease control measures had been universally implemented in all sample villages. About 74% of informants reported that villagers with wage-earning jobs outside the village had stopped working due to workplace closures. A higher percentage of rural individuals could not work due to transportation, housing, and other constraints. Local governments had taken measures to reduce the impact of COVID-19. Although schools in all surveyed villages were closed, 71% of village informants reported that students were attending classes online. Overall, measures to control COVID-19 appear to have been successful in limiting disease transmission in rural communities outside the main epidemic area. Rural Chinese citizens, however, have experienced significant economic consequences from the disease control measures.

Hospitality workers' COVID-19 risk perception and depression: A contingent model based on transactional theory of stress model

The hospitality industry worldwide is suffering under the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on the transactional theory of stress and coping, this study aims to investigate when hospitality workers' COVID-19 risk perception affects their likelihood of having depressive symptoms. Using data from 211 hospitality workers in 76 hotels in Peru, we examined the effects of perceived COVID-19 risk on the likelihood of experiencing depressive symptoms. We posited that this relationship is moderated by the workers' environment at work (job satisfaction) and at home (the number of children). The results indicate that job satisfaction weakens the link between hospitality workers' COVID-19 risk perception and their likelihood of depressive symptoms while the number of children exacerbates this link. We discuss the implications of our findings for research on COVID-19 risk perception and offer practical implications for hospitality workers under COVID-19 crisis.

Spillovers of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact on Global Economic Activity, the Stock Market, and the Energy Sector

In this study, we examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on global economic activity, the stock market, and the energy sector considering the sizable damaging impacts in these crucial aspects. Our results, based on the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model for the data from 21 January 2020, to 26 February 2021, indicate that the COVID-19 cases significantly and negatively impact all the endogenous variables such as Baltic dry index (BDI), MSCI world index (MSCI), and MSCI world energy index (MSCIE). Our results also reveal that of the three variables, the stock markets indices (MSCI and MSCIE) are comparatively more affected by COVID-19 cases. The findings imply that the stock markets are more sensitive to the COVID-19 pandemic than the real economy. The results further indicate that of the three variables, the MSCIE index is the most affected by COVID-19 due to two factors: one is the dwindling power consumption caused by COVID-19 and the other is the decline in oil price because of the Russia–OPEC price war. Our findings enhance the understanding of the spillover impacts of the global health crisis on economic activity, the stock market, and the energy sector. Moreover, our study offers insights for policymakers and governments into the relationship dynamics of COVID-19 that would help them be more cautious in taking preventive measures against the health crisis to save the economy, the stock market, and the energy sector from falling into a more deepened crisis.

Mitigating Future Respiratory Virus Pandemics: New Threats and Approaches to Consider

Despite many recent efforts to predict and control emerging infectious disease threats to humans, we failed to anticipate the zoonotic viruses which led to pandemics in 2009 and 2020. The morbidity, mortality, and economic costs of these pandemics have been staggering. We desperately need a more targeted, cost-efficient, and sustainable strategy to detect and mitigate future zoonotic respiratory virus threats. Evidence suggests that the transition from an animal virus to a human pathogen is incremental and requires a considerable number of spillover events and considerable time before a pandemic variant emerges. This evolutionary view argues for the refocusing of public health resources on novel respiratory virus surveillance at human-animal interfaces in geographical hotspots for emerging infectious diseases. Where human-animal interface surveillance is not possible, a secondary high-yield, cost-efficient strategy is to conduct novel respiratory virus surveillance among pneumonia patients in these same hotspots. When novel pathogens are discovered, they must be quickly assessed for their human risk and, if indicated, mitigation strategies initiated. In this review, we discuss the most common respiratory virus threats, current efforts at early emerging pathogen detection, and propose and defend new molecular pathogen discovery strategies with the goal of preempting future pandemics.

A tale of four futures: Tourism academia and COVID-19

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented "super-shock" for the tourism industry. How tourism academia relates to this unpredictable context is anyhow not yet evident. This study uses a qualitative scenario method to propose four possible futures for tourism academia considering the pandemic and to draw attention to key factors of these future developments. Nine interviews were held with tourism (full/ordinary) professors across Europe, America, Asia, and the Pacific Region to gain expert insights. As a result, four scenarios are proposed for tourism education, industry collaboration, research, and discipline identity. Recovery ("new sustainability" or "revenge-tourism") for tourism academia if the pandemic impact is short-term, and Adaptancy ("bridging the gap" or "decline") for tourism academia if the COVID-19 impact is long-lasting. Key factors for the way forward are finally discussed and contributions of our findings are highlighted.

International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review

BACKGROUND

In late 2019, the first cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were reported in Wuhan, China, followed by a worldwide spread. Numerous countries have implemented control measures related to international travel, including border closures, travel restrictions, screening at borders, and quarantine of travellers.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of international travel-related control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic on infectious disease transmission and screening-related outcomes.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase and COVID-19-specific databases, including the Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register and the WHO Global Database on COVID-19 Research to 13 November 2020.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We considered experimental, quasi-experimental, observational and modelling studies assessing the effects of travel-related control measures affecting human travel across international borders during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the original review, we also considered evidence on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). In this version we decided to focus on COVID-19 evidence only. Primary outcome categories were (i) cases avoided, (ii) cases detected, and (iii) a shift in epidemic development. Secondary outcomes were other infectious disease transmission outcomes, healthcare utilisation, resource requirements and adverse effects if identified in studies assessing at least one primary outcome.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened titles and abstracts and subsequently full texts. For studies included in the analysis, one review author extracted data and appraised the study. At least one additional review author checked for correctness of data. To assess the risk of bias and quality of included studies, we used the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool for observational studies concerned with screening, and a bespoke tool for modelling studies. We synthesised findings narratively. One review author assessed the certainty of evidence with GRADE, and several review authors discussed these GRADE judgements.

MAIN RESULTS

Overall, we included 62 unique studies in the analysis; 49 were modelling studies and 13 were observational studies. Studies covered a variety of settings and levels of community transmission. Most studies compared travel-related control measures against a counterfactual scenario in which the measure was not implemented. However, some modelling studies described additional comparator scenarios, such as different levels of stringency of the measures (including relaxation of restrictions), or a combination of measures. Concerns with the quality of modelling studies related to potentially inappropriate assumptions about the structure and input parameters, and an inadequate assessment of model uncertainty. Concerns with risk of bias in observational studies related to the selection of travellers and the reference test, and unclear reporting of certain methodological aspects. Below we outline the results for each intervention category by illustrating the findings from selected outcomes. Travel restrictions reducing or stopping cross-border travel (31 modelling studies) The studies assessed cases avoided and shift in epidemic development. We found very low-certainty evidence for a reduction in COVID-19 cases in the community (13 studies) and cases exported or imported (9 studies). Most studies reported positive effects, with effect sizes varying widely; only a few studies showed no effect. There was very low-certainty evidence that cross-border travel controls can slow the spread of COVID-19. Most studies predicted positive effects, however, results from individual studies varied from a delay of less than one day to a delay of 85 days; very few studies predicted no effect of the measure. Screening at borders (13 modelling studies; 13 observational studies) Screening measures covered symptom/exposure-based screening or test-based screening (commonly specifying polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing), or both, before departure or upon or within a few days of arrival. Studies assessed cases avoided, shift in epidemic development and cases detected. Studies generally predicted or observed some benefit from screening at borders, however these varied widely. For symptom/exposure-based screening, one modelling study reported that global implementation of screening measures would reduce the number of cases exported per day from another country by 82% (95% confidence interval (CI) 72% to 95%) (moderate-certainty evidence). Four modelling studies predicted delays in epidemic development, although there was wide variation in the results between the studies (very low-certainty evidence). Four modelling studies predicted that the proportion of cases detected would range from 1% to 53% (very low-certainty evidence). Nine observational studies observed the detected proportion to range from 0% to 100% (very low-certainty evidence), although all but one study observed this proportion to be less than 54%. For test-based screening, one modelling study provided very low-certainty evidence for the number of cases avoided. It reported that testing travellers reduced imported or exported cases as well as secondary cases. Five observational studies observed that the proportion of cases detected varied from 58% to 90% (very low-certainty evidence). Quarantine (12 modelling studies) The studies assessed cases avoided, shift in epidemic development and cases detected. All studies suggested some benefit of quarantine, however the magnitude of the effect ranged from small to large across the different outcomes (very low- to low-certainty evidence). Three modelling studies predicted that the reduction in the number of cases in the community ranged from 450 to over 64,000 fewer cases (very low-certainty evidence). The variation in effect was possibly related to the duration of quarantine and compliance. Quarantine and screening at borders (7 modelling studies; 4 observational studies) The studies assessed shift in epidemic development and cases detected. Most studies predicted positive effects for the combined measures with varying magnitudes (very low- to low-certainty evidence). Four observational studies observed that the proportion of cases detected for quarantine and screening at borders ranged from 68% to 92% (low-certainty evidence). The variation may depend on how the measures were combined, including the length of the quarantine period and days when the test was conducted in quarantine.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

With much of the evidence derived from modelling studies, notably for travel restrictions reducing or stopping cross-border travel and quarantine of travellers, there is a lack of 'real-world' evidence. The certainty of the evidence for most travel-related control measures and outcomes is very low and the true effects are likely to be substantially different from those reported here. Broadly, travel restrictions may limit the spread of disease across national borders. Symptom/exposure-based screening measures at borders on their own are likely not effective; PCR testing at borders as a screening measure likely detects more cases than symptom/exposure-based screening at borders, although if performed only upon arrival this will likely also miss a meaningful proportion of cases. Quarantine, based on a sufficiently long quarantine period and high compliance is likely to largely avoid further transmission from travellers. Combining quarantine with PCR testing at borders will likely improve effectiveness. Many studies suggest that effects depend on factors, such as levels of community transmission, travel volumes and duration, other public health measures in place, and the exact specification and timing of the measure. Future research should be better reported, employ a range of designs beyond modelling and assess potential benefits and harms of the travel-related control measures from a societal perspective.

Impact of different control policies for COVID-19 outbreak on the air transportation industry: A comparison between China, the U.S. and Singapore

Many countries have been implementing various control measures with different strictness levels to prevent the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from spreading. With the great reduction in human mobility and daily activities, considerable impacts have been imposed on the global air transportation industry. This study applies a hybrid SARIMA-based intervention model to measure the differences in the impacts of different control measures implemented in China, the U.S. and Singapore on air passenger and air freight traffic. To explore the effect of time span for the measures to be in force, two scenarios are invented, namely a long-term intervention and a short-term intervention, and predictions are made till the end of 2020 for all three countries under both scenarios. As a result, predictive patterns of the selected metrics for the three countries are rather different. China is predicted to have the mildest economic impact on the air transportation industry in this year in terms of air passenger revenue and air cargo traffic, provided that the control measures were prompt and effective. The U.S. would suffer from a far-reaching impact on the industry if the same control measures are maintained. More uncertainties are found for Singapore, as it is strongly associated with international travel demands. Suggestions are made for the three countries and the rest of the world on how to seek a balance between the strictness of control measures and the potential long-term industrial losses.

Next City: Learning from Cities during COVID-19 to Tackle Climate Change

Fundamental principles of modern cities and urban planning are challenged during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the advantages of large city size, high density, mass transport, free use of public space, unrestricted individual mobility in cities. These principles shaped the development of cities and metropolitan areas for more than a century, but currently, there are signs that they have turned from advantage to liability. Cities Public authorities and private organisations responded to the COVID-19 crisis with a variety of policies and business practices. These countermeasures codify a valuable experience and can offer lessons about how cities can tackle another grand challenge, this of climate change. Do the measures taken during the COVID-19 crisis represent a temporal adjustment to the current health crisis? Or do they open new ways towards a new type of urban development more effective in times of environmental and health crises? We address these questions through literature review and three case studies that review policies and practices for the transformation of city ecosystems mostly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic: (a) the central business district, (b) the transport ecosystem, and (c) the tourism–hospitality ecosystem. We assess whether the measures implemented in these ecosystems shape new policy and planning models for higher readiness of cities towards grand challenges, and how, based on this experience, cities should be organized to tackle the grand challenge of environmental sustainability and climate change.

Understanding the influence of the perceived risk of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the post-traumatic stress disorder and revisit intention of hotel guests

This study examines consumers' perceived risks of COVID-19 to develop a solid theoretical framework that explains their behavioral intentions relating to COVID-19. It also explores the influence of four sub-factors of perceived risk relating to COVID-19 and the effects of post-traumatic stress disorder and revisit intention. This study finds that the perceived risk from COVID-19 and post-traumatic stress disorder have severely negative impacts on revisit intention for hotels, with emotion regulation ability found to play a moderating role in this process. Because hotels are used by a diverse group of people in terms of race, nationality, age, and culture, they can rapidly transit epidemics such as COVID-19. Therefore, hotel managers must identify the risks of COVID-19 as perceived by hotel guests, potential development of PTSD, and influence of such negative phenomena on guests’ behavioral intentions to formulate a variety of strategies.

While We Endure This Pandemic, What New Respiratory Virus Threats Are We Missing?

In this paper, we review recent human respiratory virus epidemics, their zoonotic nature, and our current inability to identify future prepandemic threats. We propose a cost-efficient, One Health surveillance strategy that will be more efficient and more sustainable than previous efforts.

A Statistical Analysis of Impact of COVID19 on the Global Economy and Stock Index Returns

The outbreak of pandemic COVID-19 across the world has completely disrupted the political, social, economic, religious, and financial structures of the world. According to the data of April 22nd, 2020, more than 4.6 million people have been screened, in which the infection has made more than 2.7 million people positive, in which 182,740 people have died due to infection. More than 80 countries have closed their borders from transitioning countries, ordered businesses to close, instructed their populations to self-quarantine, and closed schools to an estimated 1.5 billion children. The world's top ten economies such as the United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, India, Italy, Brazil, and Canada stand on the verge of complete collapse. In addition, stock markets around the world have been pounded, and tax revenue sources have fallen off a cliff. The epidemic due to infection is having a noticeable impact on global economic development. It is estimated that by now the virus could exceed global economic growth by more than 2.0% per month if the current situation persists. Global trade may also fall from 13 to 32% depending on the depth and extent of the global economic slowdown. The full impact will not be known until the effects of the epidemic occurred. This research analyses the impact of COVID-19 on the economic growth and stock market as well. The aim of this research is to present how well COVID-19 correlated with economic growth through gross domestic products (GDP). In addition, the research considers the top five other tax revenue sources like S&P500 (GPSC), Crude oil (CL = F), Gold (GC = F), Silver (SI = F), Natural Gas (NG = F), iShares 20 + Year Treasury Bond (TLT), and correlate with the COVID-19. To fulfill the statistical analysis purpose this research uses publically available data from yahoo finance, IMF, and John Hopkins COVID-19 map with regression models that revealed a moderated positive correlation between them. The model was used to track the impact of COVID 19 on economic variation and the stock market to see how well and how far in advance the prediction holds true, if at all. The hope is that the model will be able to correctly make predictions a couple of quarters in advance, and describe why the changes are occurring. This research can support how policymakers, business strategy makers, and investors can understand the situation and use the model for prediction.

Progress of public health policy regarding global infectious diseases over the past decade in Japan

This article aims to examine progress of public health policy regarding global infectious diseases over the past decade in Japan.

A narrative review was conducted, overviewing items of the Infectious Disease Committee and the Tuberculosis Committee of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare between 2010 and 2019.

The mean value of items discussed in each meeting were 9.7 items. Among these items, these committees have discussed about countermeasures in terms of reduced burden of indigenous infectious diseases such as measles, rubella and pertussis, and increased risk of imported infectious diseases such as Ebola virus disease, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, plague, avian influenza, pandemic influenza and tuberculosis.

These changes regarding infectious diseases lead to loss of target population, difficulty of early detection, and market failure in old and new antibiotics and others, which requires challenge to scattered at-risk targets, effort to training and awareness, and creation of novel public health policy for research and development as well as production and supply. Over the past decade, public health policy regarding global infectious diseases have been one of the key targets under the triangle of global infectious disease, and recent experience of Coronavirus disease 2019 will further prioritize it in Japan. However, the principles of public health policy are globally vulnerable in the Post-Corona era, which can lead to the collapse of democratic way. To combat global infectious diseases without going off the road, we need to learn about the past history of public health policy.

Tourism under the Early Phase of COVID-19 in Four APEC Economies: An Estimation with Special Focus on SARS Experiences

This study examines how experience of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) influences the impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on international tourism demand for four Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, and New Zealand, over the 1 January–30 April 2020 period. To proceed, panel regression models are first applied with a time-lag effect to estimate the general effects of COVID-19 on daily tourist arrivals. In turn, the data set is decomposed into two nation groups and fixed effects models are employed for addressing the comparison of the pandemic-tourism relationship between economies with and without experiences of the SARS epidemic. Specifically, Taiwan and Hong Kong are grouped as economies with SARS experiences, while Thailand and New Zealand are grouped as countries without experiences of SARS. The estimation result indicates that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has a significant negative impact on tourism demand, in which a 1% COVID-19 case increase causes a 0.075% decline in tourist arrivals, which is a decline of approximately 110 arrivals for every additional person infected by the coronavirus. The negative impact of COVID-19 on tourist arrivals for Thailand and New Zealand is found much stronger than for Taiwan and Hong Kong. In particular, the number of tourist arrivals to Taiwan and Hong Kong decreased by 0.034% in response to a 1% increase in COVID-19 confirmed cases, while in Thailand and New Zealand, a 1% national confirmed cases increase caused a 0.103% reduction in tourism demand. Moreover, the effect of the number of domestic cases on international tourism is found lower than the effect caused by global COVID-19 mortality for the economies with SARS experiences. In contrast, tourist arrivals are majorly affected by the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Thailand and New Zealand. Finally, travel restriction in all cases is found to be the most influencing factor for the number of tourist arrivals. Besides contributing to the existing literature focusing on the knowledge regarding the nexus between tourism and COVID-19, the paper’s findings also highlight the importance of risk perception and the need of transmission prevention and control of the epidemic for the tourism sector.

Travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review

BACKGROUND

In late 2019, first cases of coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, were reported in Wuhan, China. Subsequently COVID-19 spread rapidly around the world. To contain the ensuing pandemic, numerous countries have implemented control measures related to international travel, including border closures, partial travel restrictions, entry or exit screening, and quarantine of travellers.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of travel-related control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic on infectious disease and screening-related outcomes.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase and COVID-19-specific databases, including the WHO Global Database on COVID-19 Research, the Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register, and the CDC COVID-19 Research Database on 26 June 2020. We also conducted backward-citation searches with existing reviews.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We considered experimental, quasi-experimental, observational and modelling studies assessing the effects of travel-related control measures affecting human travel across national borders during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also included studies concerned with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) as indirect evidence. Primary outcomes were cases avoided, cases detected and a shift in epidemic development due to the measures. Secondary outcomes were other infectious disease transmission outcomes, healthcare utilisation, resource requirements and adverse effects if identified in studies assessing at least one primary outcome.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

One review author screened titles and abstracts; all excluded abstracts were screened in duplicate. Two review authors independently screened full texts. One review author extracted data, assessed risk of bias and appraised study quality. At least one additional review author checked for correctness of all data reported in the 'Risk of bias' assessment, quality appraisal and data synthesis. For assessing the risk of bias and quality of included studies, we used the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool for observational studies concerned with screening, ROBINS-I for observational ecological studies and a bespoke tool for modelling studies. We synthesised findings narratively. One review author assessed certainty of evidence with GRADE, and the review author team discussed ratings.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 40 records reporting on 36 unique studies. We found 17 modelling studies, 7 observational screening studies and one observational ecological study on COVID-19, four modelling and six observational studies on SARS, and one modelling study on SARS and MERS, covering a variety of settings and epidemic stages. Most studies compared travel-related control measures against a counterfactual scenario in which the intervention measure was not implemented. However, some modelling studies described additional comparator scenarios, such as different levels of travel restrictions, or a combination of measures. There were concerns with the quality of many modelling studies and the risk of bias of observational studies. Many modelling studies used potentially inappropriate assumptions about the structure and input parameters of models, and failed to adequately assess uncertainty. Concerns with observational screening studies commonly related to the reference test and the flow of the screening process. Studies on COVID-19 Travel restrictions reducing cross-border travel Eleven studies employed models to simulate a reduction in travel volume; one observational ecological study assessed travel restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Very low-certainty evidence from modelling studies suggests that when implemented at the beginning of the outbreak, cross-border travel restrictions may lead to a reduction in the number of new cases of between 26% to 90% (4 studies), the number of deaths (1 study), the time to outbreak of between 2 and 26 days (2 studies), the risk of outbreak of between 1% to 37% (2 studies), and the effective reproduction number (1 modelling and 1 observational ecological study). Low-certainty evidence from modelling studies suggests a reduction in the number of imported or exported cases of between 70% to 81% (5 studies), and in the growth acceleration of epidemic progression (1 study). Screening at borders with or without quarantine Evidence from three modelling studies of entry and exit symptom screening without quarantine suggests delays in the time to outbreak of between 1 to 183 days (very low-certainty evidence) and a detection rate of infected travellers of between 10% to 53% (low-certainty evidence). Six observational studies of entry and exit screening were conducted in specific settings such as evacuation flights and cruise ship outbreaks. Screening approaches varied but followed a similar structure, involving symptom screening of all individuals at departure or upon arrival, followed by quarantine, and different procedures for observation and PCR testing over a period of at least 14 days. The proportion of cases detected ranged from 0% to 91% (depending on the screening approach), and the positive predictive value ranged from 0% to 100% (very low-certainty evidence). The outcomes, however, should be interpreted in relation to both the screening approach used and the prevalence of infection among the travellers screened; for example, symptom-based screening alone generally performed worse than a combination of symptom-based and PCR screening with subsequent observation during quarantine. Quarantine of travellers Evidence from one modelling study simulating a 14-day quarantine suggests a reduction in the number of cases seeded by imported cases; larger reductions were seen with increasing levels of quarantine compliance ranging from 277 to 19 cases with rates of compliance modelled between 70% to 100% (very low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

With much of the evidence deriving from modelling studies, notably for travel restrictions reducing cross-border travel and quarantine of travellers, there is a lack of 'real-life' evidence for many of these measures. The certainty of the evidence for most travel-related control measures is very low and the true effects may be substantially different from those reported here. Nevertheless, some travel-related control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic may have a positive impact on infectious disease outcomes. Broadly, travel restrictions may limit the spread of disease across national borders. Entry and exit symptom screening measures on their own are not likely to be effective in detecting a meaningful proportion of cases to prevent seeding new cases within the protected region; combined with subsequent quarantine, observation and PCR testing, the effectiveness is likely to improve. There was insufficient evidence to draw firm conclusions about the effectiveness of travel-related quarantine on its own. Some of the included studies suggest that effects are likely to depend on factors such as the stage of the epidemic, the interconnectedness of countries, local measures undertaken to contain community transmission, and the extent of implementation and adherence.

Understanding the impact of COVID-19 intervention policies on the hospitality labor market

Using new high-frequency data that covers a representative sample of small businesses in the United States, this study investigates the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting state policies on the hospitality industry. First, business closure policies are associated with a 20-30% reduction of non-salaried workers in the food/drink and leisure/entertainment sectors during March-April of 2020. Second, business reopening policies play a statistically significant role in slowly reviving the labor market. Third, considerable differences exist in the impact of policies on the labor market by state. Fourth, the rise of new COVID-19 cases on a daily basis is associated with the continued deterioration of the labor market. Lastly, managerial, practical, and economic implications are described.

COVID-19: Recovery Models for Radiology Departments

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has greatly affected demand for imaging services, with marked reductions in demand for elective imaging and image-guided interventional procedures. To guide radiology planning and recovery from this unprecedented impact, three recovery models were developed to predict imaging volume over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic: (1) a long-term volume model with three scenarios based on prior disease outbreaks and other historical analogues, to aid in long-term planning when the pandemic was just beginning; (2) a short-term volume model based on the supply-demand approach, leveraging increasingly available COVID-19 data points to predict examination volume on a week-to-week basis; and (3) a next-wave model to estimate the impact from future COVID-19 surges. The authors present these models as techniques that can be used at any stage in an unpredictable pandemic timeline.

Pandemic stricken cities on lockdown. Where are our planning and design professionals [now, then and into the future]?

Chinese cities have been placed upon lockdown in early 2020 in an attempt to contain the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), as increasingly huge demands are being placed upon Chinese and international health professionals to address this pandemic. Surprisingly, planning and design professionals are absent in the discourses about existing and post-COVID-19 strategies and actions even though previous pandemics historically revealed major impacts on the urban fabric from social and economic perspectives. This paper is a call for action for international architectural and urban organisations to include pandemics and similar in their disaster management strategies. This need is very evident in their need to better design creative and relevant protocols in partnership with health discipine organisations, and so that their applied deployment in pandemic stricken cities can be effected integrated seamlessly within normal city environment planning activities and also in incident situations like containing the current COVID-19 pandemic.

A Bibliometric Analysis of Corona Pandemic in Social Sciences: A Review of Influential Aspects and Conceptual Structure

Corona pandemic has affected the whole world, and it is a highly researched area in biological sciences. As the current pandemic has affected countries socially and economically, the purpose of this bibliometric analysis is to provide a holistic review of the corona pandemic in the field of social sciences. This study aims to highlight significant, influential aspects, research streams, and themes. We have reviewed 395 journal articles related to coronavirus in the field of social sciences from 2003 to 2020. We have deployed 'biblioshiny' a web-interface of the 'bibliometrix 3.0' package of R-studio to conduct bibliometric analysis and visualization. In the field of social sciences, we have reported influential aspects of coronavirus literature. We have found that the 'Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report' is the top journal. The core article of coronavirus literature is 'Guidelines for preventing health-care-associated pneumonia'. The most commonly used word, in titles, abstracts, author's keywords, and keywords plus, is 'SARS'. Top affiliation is 'The University of Hong Kong'. Hong Kong is a leading country based on citations, and the USA is on top based on total publications. We have used a conceptual framework to identify potential research streams and themes in coronavirus literature. Four research streams are found by deploying a co-occurrence network. These research streams are 'Social and economic effects of epidemic disease', 'Infectious disease calamities and control', 'Outbreak of COVID 19,' and 'Infectious diseases and the role of international organizations'. Finally, a thematic map is used to provide a holistic understanding by dividing significant themes into basic or transversal, emerging or declining, motor, highly developed, but isolated themes. These themes and subthemes have proposed future directions and critical areas of research.