Alcohol Control Policies in 46 African Countries: Opportunities for Improvement

Enhancing Alcohol-Related Research in Africa: Possibility for a Continental-Wide Alliance

Alcohol-related harms constitute a major public health concern in Africa, with high rates of alcohol consumption and associated negative health and social consequences. Despite this, there is a lack of comprehensive and coordinated research on alcohol use and related harms across the continent. This paper discusses common factors such as diverse traditions and cultures, prevailing low socioeconomic status, gendered approach, limited policy and weak regulation and compliance to existing alcohol control policies that contribute to alcohol-related problems, and the challenges facing alcohol-related research including limited research, isolated and uncoordinated research, and resource scarcity; it further proposes strategies for advancing a continental-wide alliance to enhance alcohol-related research in Africa. The alliance would bring together researchers, policymakers, and other stakeholders to collaborate on research projects, share data and resources, and develop evidence-based interventions to reduce alcohol-related harms. Furthermore, the paper outlines the potential benefits of such an alliance, including improved data collection and analysis, greater capacity building for researchers, and more effective policy and program development. The paper concludes that a continental-wide alliance on alcohol-related research in Africa has the potential to significantly enhance our understanding of alcohol use and related harms on the continent and to inform effective prevention and intervention strategies.

Alcohol control policy and alcohol-attributable disease burden in Finland and the Baltic countries: A longitudinal study 1995-2019

INTRODUCTION

Alcohol remains a significant contributor to mortality and morbidity in Finland and the Baltic countries, particularly among men. This study aimed to assess alcohol policy restrictiveness in this region from 1995 to 2019 using a modified version of the Bridging the Gap (BtG-M) policy scale and examine its association with alcohol-related disease burden.

METHODS

The study utilised national laws to score policy restrictiveness (higher BtG-M scores mean stricter policies) and age-standardised rates of disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost, years lived with disability and deaths per 100,000 from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Spearman correlation tests and panel data regression models were applied to assess the association between policy score and burden of disease.

RESULTS

Finland maintained a high BtG-M score, while the Baltic countries experienced recent increases from initially lower scores. Alcohol-related disease burden showed an inverse association with policy changes in these countries. Strongest association was seen between the BtG-M score and DALY rates attributed to injuries. Premature mortality among men constituted the largest proportion of disease burden.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Despite challenges in accessing and comparing policy data over time, we showed a strong association between alcohol policy and alcohol-related harm in Finland and the Baltic countries. This study is one of the first to use the BtG-M scale to monitor changes in alcohol policies over time and their relationship to alcohol-related harm using GBD methodology. The study highlights the effects of national alcohol policies on levels of alcohol-related harm.

Alcohol use and alcohol use disorders in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Population-level alcohol use data are available from high-income countries, but limited research has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to summarize population-level alcohol use in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHOD

Databases searched included PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO and AJOL, without language restrictions. Searches were also conducted in the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) and Google Scholar. Search terms encompassed 'substance' or 'substance-related disorders' and 'prevalence' and 'sub-Saharan Africa'. We included general population studies on alcohol use (including any use, high-risk alcohol use and alcohol use disorders) from 2018 onwards. Prevalence data for alcohol use among sub-Saharan African adolescents (10-17) and adults (18+) were extracted. Analyses included life-time and past 12- and 6-month alcohol use.

RESULTS

We included 141 papers. Among adolescents, the life-time prevalence of alcohol use was 23.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 11.3-37.1%], 36.2% (CI = 18.4-56.1%) in the past year and 11.3% (CI = 4.5-20.4%) in the past 6 months. Among adolescents, 12-month prevalence of alcohol use disorder and alcohol dependence were 7.7% (CI = 0.0-27.8%) and 4.1% (CI = 1.4-7.9%), respectively. Among adults, the life-time prevalence of alcohol use was 34.9% (CI = 17.7-54.1%), 27.1% (CI = 5.0-56.4%) in the past year and 32.2% (CI = 19.8-46.0%) in the past 6 months. Among adults, the 12-month prevalence of alcohol use disorder and alcohol dependence were 9.5% (CI = 0.0-30.4%) and 4.3% (CI = 0.8-9.8%), respectively. The highest weighted life-time prevalence of alcohol use, 86.4%, was reported in Tanzania among adults. The highest weighted past 6-month prevalence of alcohol use, 80.6%, was found in Zambia among adolescents.

CONCLUSION

Alcohol use patterns vary across countries and subregions within sub-Saharan Africa, and comprehensive population-level data on alcohol use remain scarce in numerous sub-Saharan African countries. The prevalence of alcohol use disorder is common among adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa.

A composite index of provincial alcohol control policy implementation capacity in Thailand

BACKGROUND

There is a well-published literature on the effectiveness and stringency of alcohol control policies, but not many studies focus on policy implementation, where policies transform into impact. The objective of this study is to create a composite index that measures the capacity for implementing effective alcohol control policies across all provinces in Thailand.

METHODS

Based on the international literature, we developed a list of key indicators for tracking the implementation of alcohol policies at the subnational level. To ensure these indicators were relevant to the Thai context, we obtained feedback from Thai experts. We collected primary data according to the developed indicators using questionnaires filled in by key informants at the implementing agencies and gathered secondary data at the provincial level. On this basis, we developed indices that reflect the status of alcohol control policy implementation. We then investigated the association between the indices and the prevalence and pattern of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harms while adjusting for potential confounders using multiple linear regression and negative binomial regression, respectively.

RESULTS

Scores on the Provincial Alcohol Policy Implementation Capacity (PAPIC) Index ranged between 39 and 79. We found that each 1-point increase in PAPIC score was associated with a 1.98 % reduction in the quantity of alcohol consumed in grams per day (coefficient: -0.02; 95 %CI: -0.03, -0.00; p-value<0.05; e-0.02= 0.9802). We also found that for each 1-point increase in PAPIC score, the proportion of regular drinkers reduced by 0.30 per cent (coefficient: -0.30; 95 %CI: -0.55, -0.05; p-value<0.05). However, we did not find any association between the indices and alcohol-related harms.

CONCLUSION

The level of implementation of alcohol control policy at the sub-national level is associated with alcohol consumption levels. The findings suggest the value of allocating resources to the implementation of alcohol control policy.

Factor structure of the alcohol expectancies questionnaire among adolescents in rural Ghana

INTRODUCTION

Children's early experiences with alcohol inform the development of alcohol-related beliefs which are known to predict alcohol consumption during the critical stage of adolescence. Yet, there has been considerably less research into these alcohol-related cognitions in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) and existing measures of these beliefs are highly reflective of Western contexts, which may not be fully appropriate for use in LMICs. The aim is to ascertain the construct validity of the Alcohol Expectancies Questionnaire (AEQ) in a non-Western sample.

METHODS

A cross-sectional diagnostic accuracy study involving 500 adolescents aged 10 to 18 years randomly selected from the database of the Navrongo Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Participants were administered the locally back translated version of the 34-item AEQ. Confirmatory factor analysis using the lavaan package in R was conducted to generate indices for the factor structure of the AEQ.

RESULTS

Confirmatory factor analyses showed that while groupings of positive and negative expectancies were similar to those observed when expectancies have been assessed previously in Western studies, these formed a single 'alcohol expectancy' factor. Questions relating to positive tension reduction and negative physical expectancies showed inconsistent responses in this study.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Commonly used tools for the assessment of alcohol expectancies may not be suitable for use in Ghana, possibly owing to their development and validation in Western contexts. These findings have implications for the assessment of alcohol-related beliefs in LMIC settings and begin to map out a research agenda to develop more contextually and culturally attune alcohol assessments.

Prevalence of suicide attempts across the African continent: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Over 700,000 people worldwide lose their lives through suicide every year. The prevalence of suicide has increased, especially in low- and middle-income countries such as many African countries. For every fatal suicidal attempt, there are approximately 20 other non-fatal suicide attempts within the population. The purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence of attempts of suicides in the African continent through a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

To identify relevant sources, the PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar repositories and databases were systematically searched without a lower time limit and until July 2023. The heterogeneity of the studies was checked with the I2 index, and accordingly random effects model was adopted to perform the analysis. Data analysis was conducted within the Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software (v.2).

RESULTS

In the review of 48 studies with a sample size of 244,701 people, the prevalence of suicide attempts in Africa was found to be 9.9% (95%CI: 8.5%-11.6%). With the increase in the year of study, the prevalence of suicide attempt in the African continent increases. Also, with the increase in the sample size, the prevalence of suicide attempts in Africa decreases. The suicide attempt prevalence among African men and woman slightly differed with 7.6% and 8.2%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Suicide attempt is an important public health concern in Africa. The findings of this study are important not only for African health policy making, but also to contribute to the accuracy of global estimates with respect to suicide attempts.

Breast cancer epidemiology and sociodemographic differences in BRICS-plus countries from 1990 to 2019: An age period cohort analysis

Background

Breast cancer (BC) is a major health concern in the BRICS-plus, a group of developing nations consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other Asian countries, with nearly half of the world's population. This study aims to identify potential risk factors contributing to the burden of BC by assessing its epidemiological and socio-demographic changes.

Methods

Data on BC outcomes were obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Survey. The age-period-cohort (APC) modeling technique was used to evaluate the nonlinear impacts of age, cohort, and period on BC outcomes and reported risk attributable mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate changes between 1990 and 2019.

Results

In 2019, there were 0.90 million female BC cases and 0.35 million deaths in the BRICS-plus region, with China and India having the largest proportion of incident cases and deaths, followed by Pakistan. Lesotho experienced the highest annualized rates of change (AROC: 2.61%; 95%UI: 1.99-2.99) in the past three decades. Birth cohorts' impact on BC varies greatly between the BRICS-plus nations, with Pakistan suffering the largest risk increase in the most recent cohort. High body mass index (BMI), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and a diet high in red meat contributed to the highest death and DALYs rates in most BRICS-plus nations in 2019, and there was a strong negative link between SDI and death and DALYs rate.

Conclusions

The study found that the burden of BC varies significantly between BRICS-plus regions. Thus, BRICS-plus nations should prioritise BC prevention, raise public awareness, and implement screening efficiency measures to reduce the burden of BC in the future, as well as strengthen public health policies and initiatives for important populations based on their characteristics and adaptability.

Effective alcohol policies are associated with reduced consumption among demographic groups who drink heavily

BACKGROUND

Alcohol policies stand out among other noncommunicable disease-relevant policies for the lack of uptake. Composite indicators have been developed to measure the effects of alcohol control policy. We investigated whether drinking patterns among demographic groups from general population samples of drinkers from diverse countries are associated with alcohol control policy as measured by the International Alcohol Control (IAC) Policy Index.

METHODS

Representative samples of adult drinkers from 10 countries (five high-income and five middle-income) were surveyed about alcohol consumption, using beverage and location-specific questions.

MEASUREMENTS

The IAC Policy Index was analyzed with frequency, typical occasion quantity, and volume consumed. Analyses used mixed models that included interactions between country IAC Policy Index score and age group, gender, and education level.

FINDINGS

Each increase in IAC policy index score (reflecting more effective alcohol policy) was associated with a 13.9% decrease in drinking frequency (p = 0.006) and a 16.5% decrease in volume (p = 0.001). With each increase in IAC Policy Index score, both genders decreased for all three measures, but men less so than women. Women decreased their typical occasion quantity by 1.2% (p = 0.006), frequency by 3.1% (p < 0.001), and total volume by 4.2% (p < 0.001) compared to men. Low and mid-education groups decreased their typical occasion quantity by 2.6% (p < 0.001) and 1.6% (p = 0.001), respectively, compared to high education, while for drinking frequency the low education group increased by 7.0% (p < 0.001). There was an overall effect of age (F = 19.27, p < 0.0001), with 18-19 and 20-24-year-olds showing the largest decreases in typical occasion quantity with increasing IAC policy index score.

CONCLUSIONS

The IAC Policy Index, reflecting four effective policies, was associated with volume and frequency of drinking across 10 diverse countries. Each increase in the IAC Policy Index was associated with lower typical quantities consumed among groups reporting heavy drinking: young adults and less well-educated. There is value in implementing such alcohol policies and a need to accelerate their uptake globally.

Effective alcohol policies and lifetime abstinence: An analysis of the International Alcohol Control policy index

INTRODUCTION

Alcohol abstinence remains common among adults globally, although low and middle-income countries are experiencing declines in abstention. The effect of alcohol policies on lifetime abstinence is poorly understood. The International Alcohol Control (IAC) policy index was developed to benchmark and monitor the uptake of effective alcohol policies and has shown strong associations with alcohol per capita consumption and drinking patterns. Uniquely, the index incorporates both policy 'stringency' and 'impact', reflecting policy implementation and enforcement, across effective policies. Here we assessed the association of the IAC policy index with lifetime abstinence in a diverse sample of jurisdictions.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the relationship between the IAC policy index score, and its components, and lifetime abstinence among adults (15+ years) in 13 high and middle-income jurisdictions. We examined the correlations for each component of the index and stringency and impact separately.

RESULTS

Overall, the total IAC policy index scores were positively correlated with lifetime abstinence (r = 0.76), as were both the stringency (r = 0.62) and impact (r = 0.82) scores. Marketing restrictions showed higher correlations with lifetime abstinence than other policy domains (r = 0.80), including restrictions on physical availability, pricing policies and drink-driving prevention.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that restricting alcohol marketing could be an important policy for the protection of alcohol abstention. The IAC policy index may be a useful tool to benchmark the performance of alcohol policy in supporting alcohol abstention in high and middle-income countries.

Preventing Alcohol-Related Harm in East Africa: Stakeholder Perceptions of Readiness across Five Countries

OBJECTIVE

While alcohol-related harm is a recognized public health priority, the capacity to address and mitigate its harm is lacking, primarily in low-income countries. Recent developments including new tools that can assess readiness for preventing alcohol-related harm, specifically in low-resource settings, can be used to determine strengths and opportunities for supporting, planning, and resource allocation. In this study, we determined the perceptions of readiness and capacity for the prevention of alcohol-related harm across East Africa among stakeholders engaged in such work.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 2020, distributed by the East Africa Alcohol Policy Alliance to their member alliances and stakeholders across five countries in East Africa (i.e., Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda). The survey included modified measures from the Readiness Assessment for the Prevention of Child Maltreatment (RAP-CM) short form, organizational size and funding, research capacity and priorities, and perceptions related to alcohol prevention and harm both locally and in the region. Analyses were computed based on 142 persons/organizations completing the survey.

RESULTS

In terms of general readiness, the overall adjusted aggregate score for East Africa was 39.70% (ranging from 30.5% in Burundi to 47.0% in Kenya). Of the 10 domains assessed (on a 0-10 scale), across all countries, knowledge of alcohol prevention (8.43), institutional links and resources (6.15) and legislation, mandates and policies (5.46) received the highest scores. In contrast, measures pertaining to resources (i.e., material, human, technical, and informal) received the lowest score.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate substantial variability in the readiness to address alcohol-related harm across East Africa. The highest capacity was noted for knowledge towards alcohol prevention, institutional links, and legislative mandates and policies. However, important gaps were noted in terms of attitudes towards alcohol prevention, the will to address the problem, as well as material, human, and informal resources, which need to be urgently addressed to strengthen capacity for addressing and mitigating the significant toll of alcohol-related harm in the region.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Heavy drinking and problem drinking among youth in Uganda: A structural equation model of alcohol marketing, advertisement perceptions and social norms

Introduction

To determine the role of alcohol marketing, perceptions of marketing and social norms on heavy alcohol use and problem drinking among vulnerable youth in Uganda.

Methods

The Kampala Youth Survey is a cross‐sectional study conducted in 2014 with service‐seeking youth (ages 12–18 years) living in the slums of Kampala (n = 1134) who were participating in Uganda Youth Development Link drop‐in centres. Survey measures assessed perceptions of alcohol advertisements, social norms regarding alcohol use, heavy alcohol use and problem drinking. Factor analyses and structural equation models were computed to determine the predictors (e.g. social norms and alcohol marketing exposure) for drinking amounts, heavy drinking and problem drinking.

Results

Alcohol marketing allure, perceptions of adults' alcohol attitudes and respondent's male gender were significantly predictive of heavy drinking. Similarly, in addition to drinking amount and heaviness, only alcohol marketing exposure and friends' alcohol attitudes, as well as respondent's own attitudes about alcohol, significantly predicted variation in problem drinking.

Discussion and Conclusions

Alcohol marketing exposure and allure are significant predictors of heavy drinking and problem drinking among youth in Uganda. Prevention programs that reduce exposure to and allure of alcohol marketing may prove promising for reducing alcohol use and related problems among these vulnerable youth in a low‐resource setting.

Benchmarking alcohol policy based on stringency and impact: The International Alcohol Control (IAC) policy index

This study developed a measurement tool to assess stringency and 'on-the-ground' impact of four key alcohol policy domains to create an alcohol policy index suitable for benchmarking alcohol policy and assessing change over time in middle- and high-income countries. It involved a collaboration between researchers in 12 diverse countries: New Zealand; Australia; England; Scotland; Netherlands; Vietnam; Thailand; South Africa; Turkey; Chile; Saint Kitts and Nevis and Mongolia. Data on the four most effective alcohol policy domains (availability, pricing policy, alcohol marketing, drink driving) were used to create an alcohol policy index based on their association with alcohol per capita consumption (APC) of commercial (recorded) alcohol. An innovation was the inclusion of measures of impact along with the stringency of the legislation or regulation. The resulting International Alcohol Control (IAC) Policy Index showed a very high negative correlation (-0.91) with recorded APC. Greater affordability of alcohol, an impact measure taking into account prices paid and countries' Gross Domestic Product, was predictive of higher APC (-0.80). Countries in which more modes of alcohol marketing are legally allowed and used had higher APC. Legislation on outlet density and drink driving predicted APC whereas trading hours did not. While stringency and impact measures varied between domains in terms of relationship with APC, overall, there was a strong correlation between impact and stringency (0.77). The IAC Policy Index, which includes measures of policy stringency and 'on-the-ground' impacts in relation to four key policy areas, was found to be strongly associated with commercial alcohol consumed in a number of diverse country settings. It showed a larger relationship than previous indices that include more policy dimensions. The index provides a relatively simple tool for benchmarking and communication with policy makers to encourage a strong focus on uptake of these four most effective alcohol policies.

Social Norms Regarding Alcohol Use, Perceptions of Alcohol Advertisement and Intent to Drink Alcohol among Youth in Uganda

The objective of this paper is to address the scarcity of research on alcohol marketing exposure and underage drinking in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines perceptions of alcohol advertisements and perceived peer, adult, and parental attitudes regarding alcohol use and intentions to drink among vulnerable youth. The Kampala Youth Survey is a cross-sectional study conducted in 2014 with service-seeking youth (ages 12-18 years) living in the slums of Kampala (n=1,134) who were participating in Uganda Youth Development Link drop-in centers. Survey measures assessed perceptions of alcohol ads, social norms regarding alcohol use, and intentions to drink alcohol. Chi-square tests and structural equation modeling analyses were computed. Among participants, 32% reported intentions to drink alcohol. In fully adjusted multivariable models, current drinking status (AdjOR=5.13; 95%CI:3.93, 6.72) and perceived attractive alcohol ads (AdjOR=3.71; 95%CI:2.88, 4.78) were most strongly associated with the intention to drink. Analyses examining social norms as a moderator between perceptions of alcohol ads and intention to drink found that peer networks that disapproved of drinking were protective against intent to drink. Perceived alcohol advertisement effectiveness and peer networks supportive of alcohol use are associated with intentions to drink among both boys and girls in Kampala and are not buffered by parental disapproval of drinking. Reducing exposure to alcohol marketing and developing prevention programs that strengthen peer networks disapproving of underage alcohol use and reduce exposure to alcohol marketing may be promising strategies among these vulnerable youth.

The Prevalence of Alcohol Consumption Among Pregnant Women in Ethiopia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence indicates that a significant proportion of women drink alcohol during pregnancy. Studies have also suggested that prenatal alcohol consumption was associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to systematically summarize the available evidence on the epidemiology of alcohol consumption among pregnant women in Ethiopia and suggest evidence based recommendations for future clinical practice.

METHODS

This systematic review and meta-analysis was followed the PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, SCOPUS and EMBASE databases were searched to identify relevant articles that assessed alcohol consumption among pregnant women in Ethiopia. The Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software version 3.0 was used to conduct a meta-analysis using the random-effect model. Cochran's Q- and I²-tests were used to assess the heterogeneity of the included studies.

RESULTS

A total of 6361 pregnant women from fifteen primary studies were included in the final analysis. The pooled prevalence estimate of alcohol consumption among pregnant women in Ethiopia was found to be 14.1%. The pooled prevalence of alcohol consumption among pregnant women in Ethiopia was reported to be lower in the studies that used the standardized alcohol consumption assessment tools (9.4%) when compared to the studies that did not use standardized tools (17%). The pooled prevalence of alcohol consumption among pregnant women ranged between 12.8% and 15.5% in leave-one-out sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSION

A considerable number of women in Ethiopia consume alcohol during pregnancy. Therefore, early identification and intervention strategies are highly recommended.

Overestimation of alcohol consumption norms as a driver of alcohol consumption: a whole-population network study of men across eight villages in rural, southwestern Uganda

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Little is known about how perceived norms about alcohol consumption may influence high alcohol consumption rates in Uganda. This study estimated the accuracy of perceived norms about men's alcohol consumption and estimated the association between perceived norms and personal alcohol consumption.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional, whole-population, sociocentric social network study.

SETTING

Eight rural villages in Rwampara District, southwestern Uganda in 2016-18.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 719 men aged 18 years and older (representing 91% of permanent resident men).

MEASUREMENTS

Self-reported frequent (≥ 4 days per week) and heavy alcohol consumption (six or more drinks on one occasion, more than three occasions of intoxication, or spending an excessive amount on alcohol). Participants also reported whether they thought most other men in their village engaged in frequent and heavy alcohol consumption (perceived norms). Using the network study design, we calculated alcohol consumption behavior within villages and social networks. Perceived norms were compared with aggregated self-reports. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between perceived norms and individual behavior.

FINDINGS

Throughout villages, frequent and heavy alcohol consumption ranged from 7 to 37%. However, 527 (74%) participants perceived, contrary to fact, that most other men in their villages frequently consumed alcohol, and 576 (81%) perceived that most others heavily consumed alcohol. Overestimation of alcohol consumption by others was pervasive among socio-demographic subgroups and was present irrespective of the actual consumption behavior at the village level and within social networks. Men who misperceived these alcohol consumption behaviors as being common were more likely to engage in frequent [adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 3.98; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.69-9.34) and heavy (aRR = 4.75; 95% CI = 2.33-9.69) alcohol consumption themselves.

CONCLUSIONS

Most men in eight rural Ugandan villages incorrectly thought that frequent and heavy alcohol consumption were common among men in their villages. These misperceived norms had a strong positive association with individual drinking behavior.

The European Food Regulatory Environment Index: a tool to monitor progress in implementing food environment policies

Background

Evidence based health policy, such as that put forward in the European Food and Nutrition Action Plan 2015–2020 and the WHO Global Action Plan on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases, has a role in curbing the consumption of unhealthful foods and drink. We ask how countries are performing in the adoption of these policies and how the comprehensiveness of their food environment policies explains variations in consumption of unhealthful products across Europe.

Methods

In order to assess the state of policy adoption, we developed a composite indicator—the Food Regulatory Environment Index (FREI) for which we calculated unweighted and weighted formulations according to the strength of the evidence base. We used linear regression models to explain variations in the consumption of unhealthful products as well as variations in a composite indicator of obesogenic diets.

Results

Overall, wealthier countries in the Region perform better. The weighting of the constituent policies does not affect the rankings. We find negative associations between unweighted and weighted formulations of the Index and household consumption of sugary and carbonate drinks as well as with the composite indicator for obesogenic diets.

Conclusions

The main strength of this study is the comprehensiveness and comparability of the policy data across the relatively large number of countries covered. There is a negative association that is statistically significant, between all formulations of the FREI and the household consumption of sugary and carbonated drinks. There is also a negative association between some FREI formulations and obesogenic diets.

Alcohol Use and the Risk of Communicable Diseases

The body of knowledge on alcohol use and communicable diseases has been growing in recent years. Using a narrative review approach, this paper discusses alcohol's role in the acquisition of and treatment outcomes from four different communicable diseases: these include three conditions included in comparative risk assessments to date-Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB), and lower respiratory infections/pneumonia-as well as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) because of its recent and rapid ascension as a global health concern. Alcohol-attributable TB, HIV, and pneumonia combined were responsible for approximately 360,000 deaths and 13 million disability-adjusted life years lost (DALYs) in 2016, with alcohol-attributable TB deaths and DALYs predominating. There is strong evidence that alcohol is associated with increased incidence of and poorer treatment outcomes from HIV, TB, and pneumonia, via both behavioral and biological mechanisms. Preliminary studies suggest that heavy drinkers and those with alcohol use disorders are at increased risk of COVID-19 infection and severe illness. Aside from HIV research, limited research exists that can guide interventions for addressing alcohol-attributable TB and pneumonia or COVID-19. Implementation of effective individual-level interventions and alcohol control policies as a means of reducing the burden of communicable diseases is recommended.

Alcohol Policy Scores and Alcohol-Attributable Homicide Rates in 150 Countries

INTRODUCTION

More comprehensive state-level alcohol policy environments are associated with lower alcohol-attributable homicide rates in the U.S., but few studies have explored this internationally. This study tests whether 3 national-level alcohol policy scores are associated with alcohol-attributable homicide rates.

METHODS

Data were from the 2016 WHO Global Survey on Alcohol and Health and the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study (N=150 countries). In 2020, the authors calculated domain-specific alcohol policy scores for physical availability, marketing, and pricing policies. Higher scores represented more comprehensive/restrictive alcohol policy environments. Negative binomial regressions with Benjamini-Simes-Hochberg multiple testing correction measured the associations between policies and alcohol-attributable homicide rates. Authors stratified countries by World Bank income group to determine whether the associations differed among low- and middle-income countries.

RESULTS

A 10% increase in the alcohol policy score for pricing was associated with an 18% lower alcohol-attributable homicide rate among all the countries (incidence rate ratio=0.82, adjusted p-value or q<0.001) and with a 14% (incidence rate ratio=0.86, q=0.01) decrease among 107 low- and middle-income countries. More controls on days and times of retail sales (incidence rate ratio=0.96, q=0.01) and affordability of alcohol (incidence rate ratio=0.95, q=0.04) as well as adjusting excise taxes for inflation (incidence rate ratio=0.96, q<0.01) were associated with a 4%-5% lower alcohol-attributable homicide rate in the full sample.

CONCLUSIONS

Countries with policies that reduce alcohol's affordability or days/hours of sales tend to have fewer alcohol-attributable homicides, regardless of their income level. Alcohol-attributable homicide rates are highest in low- and middle-income countries; policies that raise alcohol-relative prices may hold promise for curbing these harms.

Global burden of cancer in 2020 attributable to alcohol consumption: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use is causally linked to multiple cancers. We present global, regional, and national estimates of alcohol-attributable cancer burden in 2020 to inform alcohol policy and cancer control across different settings globally.

METHODS

In this population-based study, population attributable fractions (PAFs) calculated using a theoretical minimum-risk exposure of lifetime abstention and 2010 alcohol consumption estimates from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health (assuming a 10-year latency period between alcohol consumption and cancer diagnosis), combined with corresponding relative risk estimates from systematic literature reviews as part of the WCRF Continuous Update Project, were applied to cancer incidence data from GLOBOCAN 2020 to estimate new cancer cases attributable to alcohol. We also calculated the contribution of moderate (<20 g per day), risky (20-60 g per day), and heavy (>60 g per day) drinking to the total alcohol-attributable cancer burden, as well as the contribution by 10 g per day increment (up to a maximum of 150 g). 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were estimated using a Monte Carlo-like approach.

FINDINGS

Globally, an estimated 741 300 (95% UI 558 500-951 200), or 4·1% (3·1-5·3), of all new cases of cancer in 2020 were attributable to alcohol consumption. Males accounted for 568 700 (76·7%; 95% UI 422 500-731 100) of total alcohol-attributable cancer cases, and cancers of the oesophagus (189 700 cases [110 900-274 600]), liver (154 700 cases [43 700-281 500]), and breast (98 300 cases [68 200-130 500]) contributed the most cases. PAFs were lowest in northern Africa (0·3% [95% UI 0·1-3·3]) and western Asia (0·7% [0·5-1·2]), and highest in eastern Asia (5·7% [3·6-7·9]) and central and eastern Europe (5·6% [4·6-6·6]). The largest burden of alcohol-attributable cancers was represented by heavy drinking (346 400 [46·7%; 95% UI 227 900-489 400] cases) and risky drinking (291 800 [39·4%; 227 700-333 100] cases), whereas moderate drinking contributed 103 100 (13·9%; 82 600-207 200) cases, and drinking up to 10 g per day contributed 41 300 (35 400-145 800) cases.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings highlight the need for effective policy and interventions to increase awareness of cancer risks associated with alcohol use and decrease overall alcohol consumption to prevent the burden of alcohol-attributable cancers.

FUNDING

None.

Individual and community-level predictors of maternal alcohol consumption during pregnancy in Gondar town, Northwest Ethiopia: a multilevel logistic regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Prenatal alcohol consumption is a serious public health concern that is considered as one of the preventable risk factors for neonatal and childhood morbidity and several adverse pregnancy outcomes. This study aimed to determine the individual- and community-level predictors of maternal alcohol consumption during pregnancy in Gondar town, Northwest Ethiopia.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among pregnant women in Gondar town from 13 June to 24 August 2019. A cluster random sampling technique was used to select 1237 pregnant women. Data collection was carried out using the AUDIT-C pretested standard questionnaire. Bivariable and multivariable multilevel logistic regression analyses were computed to identify predictors of alcohol consumption using the odds ratio, 95% CI, and p-value < 0.05.

RESULTS

The prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy was found to be 30.26% (95% CI: 27.74%, 32.91%). The study revealed that pregnant women who have a low knowledge level on harmful effect of alcohol consumption (AOR = 3.2; 95% CI: 1.9, 5.4), positive attitude towards alcohol consumption (AOR = 7.5; 95% 5, 11), history of pre-pregnancy alcohol consumption (AOR = 4.8; 95% CI: 3.4, 6.9), whose partner consume alcohol (AOR = 3.9; 95% CI: 2.5, 6), a perception that alcohol consumption is culturally or socially acceptable (AOR = 3.6; 95% CI: 2.4, 5.3), who were encouraged by their partners to consume alcohol (AOR = 4; 95% CI: 1.9, 8) were significantly associated with pregnancy alcohol consumption. Concerning the community-level characteristics, who had not ever heard/media exposure about the risk of alcohol drinking during pregnancy (AOR = 3; 95% CI: 1.7, 5.5), and who were from low community women's education attainment (AOR = 4; 95% CI: 2.2, 7.7) were statistically significant predictors of alcohol consumption during pregnancy.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed that alcohol consumption during pregnancy is prevalent in Gondar town. Both individual- and community-level predictors were found to be associated with alcohol consumption during pregnancy. Policymakers may take into account these predictors for individual and community-based interventions to which our results appear to point.

Alcohol consumption, harms and policy developments in sub-Saharan Africa: The case for stronger national and regional responses

ISSUES

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has long been characterised as a region with weak alcohol policies, high proportions of abstainers and heavy episodic drinkers (among drinkers), and as a target for market expansion by global alcohol producers. However, inter-regional analyses of these issues are seldom conducted.

APPROACH

Focusing mainly on the period 2000-2016, we compare alcohol consumption and harms, alcohol policy developments and alcohol industry activities over time and across the four sub-regions of SSA.

KEY FINDINGS

Per-capita consumption of alcohol and alcohol-related disease burden have increased in Central Africa but stabilised or reduced in other regions, although they are still high. Most countries have implemented tax policies, but they have seldom adopted other World Health Organization 'best buys' for cost-effective alcohol control policies. Countries range from having minimal alcohol controls to having total bans (e.g. some Muslim-majority countries); and some, such as Botswana, have attempted stringent tax policies to address alcohol harm. Alcohol producers have continued their aggressive marketing and policy interference activities, some of which have been highlighted and, in a few instances, resisted by civil society and public health advocates, particularly in southern Africa.

IMPLICATIONS

Increased government support and commitment are needed to be able to adopt and implement effective alcohol policies and respond to pressures from alcohol companies to which SSA remains a target market.

CONCLUSION

SSA needs effective alcohol control measures in order to reverse the trajectory of worsening alcohol harms observed in some countries and reinforce improvements in alcohol harms observed in others.

Suicidal behaviours among adolescents in Liberia

BACKGROUND

Whereas suicide remains in the top 12 leading causes of death among young people aged 10-24 in sub-Saharan Africa, little is known about suicidal behaviours among adolescents in Liberia. We aimed to estimate the 12-month prevalence and describe some of the correlates of suicide behaviours (ideation, planning, and attempt) among school-going adolescents in Liberia.

METHODS

We analysed data from the 2017 Liberia Global School-based Student Health Survey conducted nationwide among secondary school students. We performed bivariate and multivariable analyses to assess the correlates of suicidal ideation, planning, and attempt in the previous 12 months.

RESULTS

Of the 2744 students, 26.8% reported suicidal ideation, 36.5% made a specific plan to attempt suicide and 33.7% attempted suicide during the 12 months preceding the survey. In the final adjusted logistic models, bullying victimisation and food insecurity were associated with increased odds of ideation, planning, and attempt. Whereas no factor was uniquely associated with suicidal ideation, having many close friends, and parental monitoring were associated with the increased odds of suicidal planning only. Leisure-time sedentary behaviour was associated with increased odds of suicidal planning and attempt. Cannabis use, alcohol drunkenness, being physically attacked, and parental supervision were uniquely associated with increased odds of suicidal attempt, while parental understanding and having a smaller number of close friends were uniquely associated with reduced odds of suicidal attempt.

CONCLUSIONS

The relatively high prevalence estimates of suicide behaviours and the multi-contextual nature of the associated factors warrant the need for the design and implementation of universal and multi-level, collaborative targeted intervention efforts towards the prevention of the onset of ideation, planning, and attempt, and the possible transition to deaths by suicide among school-going adolescents in Liberia.

National, regional, and global burdens of disease from 2000 to 2016 attributable to alcohol use: a comparative risk assessment study

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use has increased globally, with varying trends in different parts of the world. This study investigates gender, age, and geographical differences in the alcohol-attributable burden of disease from 2000 to 2016.

METHODS

This comparative risk assessment study estimated the alcohol-attributable burden of disease. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were estimated by combining alcohol exposure data obtained from production and taxation statistics and from national surveys with corresponding relative risks obtained from meta-analyses and cohort studies. Mortality and morbidity data were obtained from the WHO Global Health Estimates, population data were obtained from the UN Population Division, and human development index (HDI) data were obtained from the UN Development Programme. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were estimated using a Monte Carlo-like approach.

FINDINGS

Globally, we estimated that there were 3·0 million (95% UI 2·6-3·6) alcohol-attributable deaths and 131·4 million (119·4-154·4) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2016, corresponding to 5·3% (4·6-6·3) of all deaths and 5·0% (4·6-5·9) of all DALYs. Alcohol use was a major risk factor for communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional diseases (PAF of 3·3% [1·9-5·6]), non-communicable diseases (4·3% [3·6-5·1]), and injury (17·7% [14·3-23·0]) deaths. The alcohol-attributable burden of disease was higher among men than among women, and the alcohol-attributable age-standardised burden of disease was highest in the eastern Europe and western, southern, and central sub-Saharan Africa regions, and in countries with low HDIs. 52·4% of all alcohol-attributable deaths occurred in people younger than 60 years.

INTERPRETATION

As a leading risk factor for the burden of disease, alcohol use disproportionately affects people in low HDI countries and young people. Given the variations in the alcohol-attributable burden of disease, cost-effective local and national policy measures that can reduce alcohol use and the resulting burden of disease are needed, especially in low-income and middle-income countries.

FUNDING

None.

Prohibiting alcohol sales during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has positive effects on health services in South Africa

As the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic evolves globally, we are realising its impact on communities from the disease itself and the measures being taken to limit infection spread. In South Africa (SA), 62 300 adults die annually from alcohol-attributable causes. Alcohol-related harm can be reduced by interventions, such as taxation, government monopolising retail sales, outlet density restriction, hours of sales and an advertising ban. To mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, SA instituted a lockdown that also prohibited alcohol sales. This led to a sharp reduction in unnatural deaths in the country from 800–1000/week to around 400/week during the lockdown. We reviewed three 2-week periods at a large rural regional hospital: Before Covid-19 (February), during social distancing (March) and during lockdown with alcohol ban (April). A dramatic drop in patient numbers from 145 to 64 (55.8%) because of assault, from 207 to 83 (59.9%) because of accidents, from 463 to 188 (59.4%) because of other injuries and from 12 to 1 (91.6%) because of sexual assaults was observed during the first 2 weeks of lockdown. As healthcare professionals, we need to advocate for the ban to remain until the crisis is over to ensure that health services can concentrate on Covid-19 and other patients. We encourage other African states to follow suit and implement alcohol restrictions as a mechanism to free up health services. We see this as an encouragement to lobby for a new normal around alcohol sales after the pandemic. The restrictions should focus on all evidence-based modalities.

"It's business as usual": adolescents perspectives on the ban of alcohol sachets towards reduction in under age alcohol use in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Alcohol contributes to poor health, social and economic outcomes among adolescents. In Malawi, alcohol consumption among young people significantly increased after the introduction of alcohol sachets. A government ban on the sale of alcohol sachets affected in 2012 aimed to reduce prevalence of alcohol among users. We explored adolescents perceptions regarding the effectiveness of the ban towards reducing alcohol consumption among the under aged in the country.

METHODS

Using a descriptive phenomenological school-based approach, we recruited 44 school-going adolescents, 15-17 year olds using snow ball sampling and conducted 12 individual semi-structured interviews and four group discussions differentiated by sex. We sought a waiver from College of Medicine Ethics Committee (COMREC) to obtain verbal consent from adolescents. All interviews and discussions were digitally recorded and simultaneously transcribed and translated verbatim into English. Data management and analysis was done manually using thematic approach.

RESULTS

Aggressive packaging, and marketing tendencies and lack of restrictive measures in Malawi have rendered the ban ineffective through increased affordability and availability to different income population groups and the underage. Results indicate that even though adolescents perceive the ban as a significant step towards reducing under age alcohol use, personality and drinking motives precede any interventions. Adolescents emphasized on strong personality as a significant factor for reduced alcohol intake or abstinence.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend strict alcohol policy and enforcement regarding packaging, pricing, positive role modelling by parents and enhanced adolescent personality development through schools and families.

Alcohol consumption and its associated factors among pregnant women in Sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis' as given in the submission system

Background

Alcohol consumption during pregnancy represents a significant public health concern. It has several adverse health effects for both the mother and the developing fetus. This study aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence and the effect size of associated factors of alcohol consumption during pregnancy in Sub-Saharan Africa countries.

Methods

The results of the review were reported based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis statement (PRISMA) guideline and, it was registered in the Prospero database, number CRD42019127103. The available primary studies were collated from different databases: PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, Google Scholar, African Journals Online and Centre for Addiction and Mental Health Library. The main search terms were [((alcohol consumption) OR (alcohol drinking) OR (alcohol use) OR (ethanol use) OR (alcohol exposure)) AND ((pregnant women) OR (pregnant mother) OR (during pregnancy)) AND (Sub-Saharan Africa)]. We used the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) for critical appraisal of studies. The random-effects model was computed to estimate the pooled prevalence. Heterogeneity between studies was checked using the I² statistic and the Cochrane Q test.

Results

The review resulted in 963 original studies after searching various databases, and finally 37 studies in qualitative synthesis and 30 articles in the systematic review and meta-analysis were included. The overall summary estimate of the prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy was found to be 20.83% (95% CI: 18.21, 23.46). The pooled estimate of meta-analysis showed that depression (OR: 1.572; 95% CI: 1.34, 1.845), partners’ alcohol use (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.57), knowledge on harmful effect of alcohol consumption (OR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.29, 0.45) and, unplanned pregnancy (OR: 2.33, 95% CI: 1.17, 4.63) were statistically significant factors with alcohol consumption during pregnancy.

Conclusions

The result showed that there was high alcohol consumption during pregnancy in Sub- Saharan Africa. Alcohol consumption during pregnancy was associated with depression, partners’ alcohol use, unplanned pregnancy and knowledge of the harmful effects of alcohol consumption. Therefore, this will be a basis for public policy and resource allocation for prevention initiatives.

Associations Between Alcohol Policies and Adolescent Alcohol Use: A Pooled Analysis of GSHS and ESPAD Data

Aims

Alcohol-attributable harm remains high worldwide, and alcohol use among adolescents is particularly concerning. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of national alcohol control policies on adolescent alcohol use in low-, middle- and high-income countries and improve on previous cross-national attempts to estimate the impact of alcohol policy on this population.

Methods

Data on adolescent (n = 277,110) alcohol consumption from 84 countries were pooled from the Global School-based Health Survey and the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs. Alcohol use measures included lifetime alcohol use, current (past 30 days) alcohol use and current (past 30 days) binge drinking. Information on national alcohol control policies was obtained from the World Health Organization’s Global Information System on Alcohol and Health and scored for effectiveness. Main effects were estimated using two-level, random intercept hierarchical linear models, and the models were adjusted for sex and age of the participants, and pattern of drinking score, gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity and study at the country level.

Results

Availability (OR [95% CI] = 0.991 [0.983, 0.999]), marketing (OR [95% CI] = 0.994 [0.988, 1.000]) and pricing (OR [95% CI] = 0.955 [0.918, 0.993]) policies were inversely associated with lifetime drinking status. Pricing policies were also inversely associated with current binge drinking status among current drinkers (OR [95% CI] = 0.939 [0.894, 0.986]). There were no associations between the included alcohol policies and current drinking status.

Conclusions

Strong availability, marketing and pricing policies can significantly and practically impact adolescent alcohol consumption.

Assessing the health risks of consuming 'sachet' alcohol in Acoli, Uganda

The increased mortality rate among the Acoli people of northern Uganda is anecdotally blamed on excessive consumption of cheap and widely available sachet-packaged alcohol in the region. In this paper, we quantify this perceived association by determining statistically the health risks associated with ingesting 20 heavy metals in 17 popular spirits products consumed in Acoli. Thirteen of these products were industrially packaged in sachets (locally known as 'sachet,' waragi, arege or moo lyec) and four were locally produced Lira-Lira spirits from Bolo, Awere and Teso Bar in the region and Nsambya in southern Uganda. A Scottish whisky purchased in San Diego (USA) was our reference. Risk assessment was performed according to standardized protocols developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). Our results show that a strong correlation indeed exists between health risks and ingestion of spirits in Acoli. At >2.5 sachets/day for 240 day/year over a lifetime for example, the risk of developing cancer due to exposure to As, Pb and Cr alone is 1 in 102,041. This estimate excludes ethanol, a known carcinogen, and 17 heavy metals also studied due to lack of their cancer slope factors. The primary non-cancer related health risk factor in all samples tested is ethanol with unacceptably high health index of four. The Lira-Lira spirits, with 100-6000% copper above the US EPA limit for intake by oral ingestion in water, would be the 'cleanest' without copper and at par with the Scottish whisky. Collectively, we find that no amount of alcohol consumed in Acoli is safe. Preventive measures are therefore recommended to reduce mortality in Acoli in particular, and in Uganda in general. These measures should include public education, better public policies, creating productive economic activities other than brewing alcohol, and social activities that engage people away from drinking.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence and determinants of heavy episodic drinking among adults in Kenya: analysis of the STEPwise survey, 2015

BACKGROUND

Globally, alcohol consumption contributes to 3.3 million deaths and 5.1% of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and its use is linked with more than 200 disease and injury conditions. Our study assessed the frequency and patterns of Heavy Episodic Drinking (HED) in Kenya. HED is defined as consumption of 60 or more grams of pure alcohol (6+ standard drinks in most countries) on at least one single occasion per month. Understanding the burden and patterns of heavy episodic drinking will be helpful to inform strategies that would curb the problem in Kenya.

METHODS

Using the WHO STEPwise approach to surveillance (STEPS) tool, a nationally representative household survey of 4203 adults aged 18-69 years was conducted in Kenya between April and June 2015. We used logistic regression analysis to assess factors associated with HED among both current and former alcohol drinkers. We included the following socio-demographic variables: age, sex, and marital status, level of education, socio-economic status, residence, and tobacco as an interaction factor.

RESULTS

The prevalence of HED was 12.6%. Men were more likely to engage in HED than women (unadjusted OR 9.9 95%, CI 5.5-18.8). The highest proportion of HED was reported in the 18-29-year age group (35.5%). Those currently married/ cohabiting had the highest prevalence of HED (60%). Respondents who were separated had three times higher odds of HED compared to married counterparts (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.3-5.7). Approximately 16.0% of respondents reported cessation of alcohol use due to health reasons. Nearly two thirds reported drinking home-brewed beers or wines. Tobacco consumption was associated with higher odds of HED (unadjusted OR 6.9, 95% CI 4.4-10.8); those that smoke (34.4%) were more likely to engage in HED compared to their non-smoking counterparts.

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlight a significant prevalence of HED among alcohol drinkers in Kenya. Young males, those with less education, married people, and tobacco users were more likely to report heavy alcohol use, with male sex as the primary driving factor. These findings are novel to the country and region; they provide guidance to target alcohol control interventions for different groups in Kenya.

A Commentary on the Limits of Alcoholic Beverage Policies

Providing one set of policy measures for all countries as if they were a single, homogeneous entity does not appear to be evidence-based, according to recent research on the effectiveness of alcoholic beverage control policies. Contextual and cultural determinants-social, economic, demographic, cultural and political-appear to be major factors of influencing change in drinking trends, drinking patterns and drinking-related harms. The variable interplay between contextual determinants and alcohol control policy measures implies diverse impacts on consumption and harm according to time, and to the different countries and groups of countries. In addition, epidemiology research manifests some limitations when applied to alcohol drinking and results are transferred from one culture to another. The conditions of individual cultures and countries should be considered when planning and evaluating alcohol control policies.

Alcohol-attributed disease burden and alcohol policies in the BRICS-countries during the years 1990-2013

BACKGROUND

We aimed to assess alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributed disease burden by DALYs (disability adjusted life years) in the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) between 1990 and 2013, and explore to what extent these countries have implemented evidence-based alcohol policies during the same time period.

METHODS

A comparative risk assessment approach and literature review, within a setting of the BRICS countries. Participants were the total populations (males and females combined) of each country. Levels of alcohol consumption, age-standardized alcohol-attributable DALYs per 100 000 and alcohol policy documents were measured.

RESULTS

The alcohol-attributed disease burden mirrors level of consumption in Brazil, Russia and India, to some extent in China, but not in South Africa. Between the years 1990-2013 DALYs per 100 000 decreased in Brazil (from 2124 to 1902), China (from 1719 to 1250) and South Africa (from 2926 to 2662). An increase was observed in Russia (from 4015 to 4719) and India (from 1574 to 1722). Policies were implemented in all of the BRICS countries and the most common were tax increases, drink-driving measures and restrictions on advertisement.

CONCLUSIONS

There was an overall decrease in alcohol-related DALYs in Brazil, China and South Africa, while an overall increase was observed in Russia and India. Most notably is the change in DALYs in Russia, where a distinct increase from 1990-2005 was followed by a steady decrease from 2005-2013. Even if assessment of causality cannot be done, policy changes were generally followed by changes in alcohol-attributed disease burden. This highlights the importance of more detailed research on this topic.

Alcohol control policies and alcohol consumption: an international comparison of 167 countries

BACKGROUND

Alcohol control policy has a fundamental role in limiting negative health, economic and social harm caused by alcohol consumption. However, there is substantial international heterogeneity in country-level policy adoption, implementation and monitoring. Comparative measures so far focused on Europe or the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries.

METHODS

We created an Alcohol Control Policy Index (ACPI) for 167 countries using five different methodological approaches. National policies were sourced from WHO's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. We assessed ACPI's criterion-related validity by calculating the strength of the association among the different approaches. As for content validity, we tested whether the resulting scores explained variations in alcohol per capita consumption cross-nationally, controlling for gross domestic product, population age, urbanisation and world region using OLS and random coefficients models.

RESULTS

Index scores and ranks from different methodological approaches are highly correlated (r=0.99). Higher scores were associated with lower consumption across the five methods. For each 1 score increase in the ACPI, the reduction in per capita alcohol consumption varies from -0.024 L (95% CI (-0.043 to -0.004) to -0.014 L (95% CI (-0.034 to 0.005). We obtain larger coefficients and p values <0.005 when estimating random coefficients.

CONCLUSION

ACPI offers a measure of alcohol control policy across countries that makes use of a larger number of countries than its predecessors, as well as a wider range of methodologies for its calculation, both of which contribute to its validity. Furthermore, it shows that the statutory strictness of alcohol control policies is associated with lower levels of alcohol consumption.

There has been little progress in implementing comprehensive alcohol control strategies in Africa

Alcohol is the most common substance of addiction and a threat not only to health but also to sustainable human development. Consequently, at least a 10% relative reduction in the harmful use of alcohol has been advocated by the World Health Organization (WHO). This perspective describes alcohol use in Africa, strategies to reduce harmful alcohol use, and the ability of African countries to meet this target. Although alcohol consumption in Africa was intermediate compared to other world regions, the total alcohol per capita among alcohol consumers was the second highest (19.5 liters); 19% of Sub-Saharan African men could be classified as binge drinkers. The alcohol industry is the key driver behind the uptake of alcohol use and misuse. The most cost-effective ways to reduce alcohol-related harm is to make alcohol less available and more expensive and to prohibit alcohol advertising. Most African countries have alcohol excise taxes, but these are not adjusted for inflation, meaning that the effectiveness of these taxes will likely decrease with time, leading to greater affordability. The majority of African countries do not have legally binding regulations for alcohol marketing. Alcohol misuse in Africa is not being addressed at a time when available strategies can efficiently and cost-effectively control alcohol-related harm.

Harmful Use of Alcohol: A Shadow over Sub-Saharan Africa in Need of Workable Solutions

Alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributable burden of disease in Africa are expected to rise in the near future, yet. increasing alcohol-related harm receives little attention from policymakers and from the population in general. Even where new legislation is proposed it is rarely enacted into law. Being at the center of social and cultural activities in many countries, alcohol’s negative role in society and contribution to countries’ burden of disease are rarely questioned. After the momentum created by the adoption in 2010 of the WHO Global Strategy and the WHO Regional Strategy (for Africa) to Reduce the Harmful Use of Alcohol, and the WHO Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Non-Communicable Diseases, in 2013, little seems to have been done to address the increasing use of alcohol, its associated burden and the new challenges that derive from the growing influence of the alcohol industry in Africa. In this review, we argue that to have a positive impact on the health of African populations, action addressing specific features of alcohol policy in the continent is needed, namely focusing on particularities linked to alcohol availability, like unrecorded and illicit production, outlet licensing, the expansion of formal production, marketing initiatives and taxation policies.

Actual and predicted prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy in the WHO African Region

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy among the general population in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region, by country.

METHODS

First, a comprehensive systematic literature search was performed to identify all published and unpublished studies. Then, several meta-analyses, assuming a random-effects model, were conducted to estimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy among the general population for countries in the WHO African Region with two or more studies available. Lastly, for countries with less than two studies or no known data predictions were obtained using regression modelling.

RESULTS

The estimated prevalence of alcohol consumption during pregnancy among the general population ranged from 2.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-2.8%; Equatorial Guinea) to 12.6% (95% CI: 9.9-15.4%; Cameroon) in Central Africa, 3.4% (95% CI: 2.6-4.3%; Seychelles) to 20.5% (95% CI: 16.4-24.7%; Uganda) in Eastern Africa, 5.7% (95% CI: 4.4-7.1%; Botswana) to 14.2% (95% CI: 11.1-17.3%; Namibia) in Southern Africa, 6.6% (95% CI: 5.0-8.3%; Mauritania) to 14.8% (95% CI: 11.6-17.9%; Sierra Leone) in Western Africa, and 4.3% (95% CI: 3.2-5.3%; Algeria) in Northern Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

The high prevalence of alcohol consumption and binge drinking during pregnancy in some African countries calls for educational campaigns, screening and targeted interventions for women of childbearing age.

HIV-Alcohol Risk Reduction Interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review of the Literature and Recommendations for a Way Forward

Sub-Saharan Africa bears 69 % of the global burden of HIV, and strong evidence indicates an association between alcohol consumption, HIV risk behavior, and HIV incidence. However, characteristics of efficacious HIV-alcohol risk reduction interventions are not well known. The purpose of this systematic review is to summarize the characteristics and synthesize the findings of HIV-alcohol risk reduction interventions implemented in the region and reported in peer-reviewed journals. Of 644 citations screened, 19 met the inclusion criteria for this review. A discussion of methodological challenges, research gaps, and recommendations for future interventions is included. Relatively few interventions were found, and evidence is mixed about the efficacy of HIV-alcohol risk reduction interventions. There is a need to further integrate HIV-alcohol risk reduction components into HIV prevention programming and to document results from such integration. Additionally, research on larger scale, multi-level interventions is needed to identify effective HIV-alcohol risk reduction strategies.

The impact of alcohol consumption on African people in 2012: an analysis of burden of disease

OBJECTIVES

To determine the impact of alcohol consumption on deaths and disability in Africa.

METHODS

We estimated alcohol exposure for 2012, and its impact on deaths and disability in Africa using estimates from the WHO Global Health Estimates for outcome data, and the WHO Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health 2014 for risk relations. We provide a scenario that includes the impact of alcohol on HIV/AIDS incidence, and qualitative predictions on future exposure and harm.

RESULTS

Overall, alcohol consumption has a large impact on burden of disease and mortality in African countries. Alcohol-attributable disease burden is more important when the impact of alcohol consumption on the incidence and course of HIV/AIDS is taken into account, with alcohol being responsible, in 2012, for 6.4% of all deaths and 4.7% of all DALYs lost in the African region. Alcohol exposure is expected to increase in the next years, and thus alcohol-attributable fractions.

CONCLUSIONS

The weight of new evidence, especially of alcohol's role in the incidence and course of HIV/AIDS, is particularly relevant to African countries and points to the need for a strong policy response to reduce the alcohol-related burden of disease on the continent.