Profile: The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS)

Longitudinal Studies of Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Review, Limitations, and Recommendations in Preparation of Projected Aging Population

Background and Objectives

The United Nations has projected a 218% increase in older people in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) between 2019 and 2050, underscoring the need to explore changes that would occur over this time. Longitudinal studies are ideal for studying and proffering solutions to these changes. This review aims to understand the breadth and use of longitudinal studies on aging in the SSA regions, proffering recommendations in preparation for the projected aging population.

Research Design and Methods

This paper is the third of a four-part series paper of a previous systematic mapping review of aging studies in SSA. We updated the search (between 2021 and 2023) and screened the titles/abstracts and full-text articles by a pair of independent reviewers. Data were extracted using a standardized data-charting form, identifying longitudinal studies in SSA.

Results

We identified 193 studies leveraging 24 longitudinal study data sets conducted at 28 unique sites. The World Health Organization's Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (WHO-SAGE) (n = 59, 30.5%) and Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) (n = 51, 26.4%) were the most used longitudinal data sets. Four studies used more than one longitudinal study data set. Eighteen of the longitudinal study data sets were used only in 1-4 studies. Most (n = 150, 77.7%) of the studies used a cross-sectional analytical approach.

Discussion and Implications

Longitudinal studies on aging are sparingly being utilized in SSA. Most analyses conducted across the longitudinal data set were cross-sectional, which hindered the understanding of aging changes that occurred over time that could better inform aging policy and interventions. We call for funding bodies, such as WHO-SAGE, to develop funding competitions that focus on conducting longitudinal analyses, such as structural equation modeling, highlighting changes occurring among the aging population in SSA.

Magnetic resonance imaging findings in Kenyans and South Africans with active convulsive epilepsy: An observational study

OBJECTIVE

Focal epilepsy is common in low- and middle-income countries. The frequency and nature of possible underlying structural brain abnormalities have, however, not been fully assessed.

METHODS

We evaluated the possible structural causes of epilepsy in 331 people with epilepsy (240 from Kenya and 91 from South Africa) identified from community surveys of active convulsive epilepsy. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were acquired on 1.5-Tesla scanners to determine the frequency and nature of any underlying lesions. We estimated the prevalence of these abnormalities using Bayesian priors (from an earlier pilot study) and observed data (from this study). We used a mixed-effect modified Poisson regression approach with the site as a random effect to determine the clinical features associated with neuropathology.

RESULTS

MRI abnormalities were found in 140 of 240 (modeled prevalence = 59%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 53%-64%) of people with epilepsy in Kenya, and in 62 of 91 (modeled prevalence = 65%, 95% CI: 57%-73%) in South Africa, with a pooled modeled prevalence of 61% (95% CI: 56%-66%). Abnormalities were common in those with a history of adverse perinatal events (15/23 [65%, 95% CI: 43%-84%]), exposure to parasitic infections (83/120 [69%, 95% CI: 60%-77%]) and focal electroencephalographic features (97/142 [68%, 95% CI: 60%-76%]), but less frequent in individuals with generalized electroencephalographic features (44/99 [44%, 95% CI: 34%-55%]). Most abnormalities were potentially epileptogenic (167/202, 82%), of which mesial temporal sclerosis (43%) and gliosis (34%) were the most frequent. Abnormalities were associated with co-occurrence of generalized non-convulsive seizures (relative risk [RR] = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.04-1.25), lack of family history of seizures (RR = 0.91, 0.86-0.96), convulsive status epilepticus (RR = 1.14, 1.08-1.21), frequent seizures (RR = 1.12, 1.04-1.20), and reported use of anti-seizure medication (RR = 1.22, 1.18-1.26).

SIGNIFICANCE

MRI identified pathologies are common in people with epilepsy in Kenya and South Africa. Mesial temporal sclerosis, the most common abnormality, may be amenable to surgical correction. MRI may have a diagnostic value in rural Africa, but future longitudinal studies should examine the prognostic role.

Where do those data go? Reuse of screening results from clinical trials to estimate population prevalence of HBV infection in adults in Kilifi, Kenya

Chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB) is a significant problem worldwide with around 300 million people infected. Ambitious goals have been set towards its elimination as a public health threat by 2030. However, accurate seroprevalence estimates in many countries are lacking or fail to provide representative population estimates, particularly in the WHO African Region (AFRO). This means the full extent of HBV infection is not well described, leading to a lack of investment in diagnostics, treatment and disease prevention. Clinical trials in the WHO AFRO region have been increasing over time and many test for infectious diseases including hepatitis B virus (HBV) to determine baseline eligibility for participants, however these screening data are not reported. Here we review data from six clinical trials completed at the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme between 2016 and 2023 that screened for HBV using hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) as part of the trial exclusion criteria. 1727 people had HBsAg results available, of which 60 tested positive. We generated a crude period HBV prevalence estimate of 3.5% (95% CI 2.6-4.5%), and after standardisation for sex and age to account for the population structure of the Kilifi Health Demographics Surveillance System (KHDSS), the prevalence estimate increased to 5.0% (95% CI 3.4-6.6%). The underrepresentation of women in these trials was striking with 1263/1641 (77%) of participants being male. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) was significantly higher in the HBsAg positive group but was not outside the normal range. We argue that routine collation and publishing of data from clinical trials could increase precision and geographical representation of global HBV prevalence estimates, enabling evidence-based provision of clinical care pathways and public health interventions to support progress towards global elimination targets. We do acknowledge when using clinical trials data for seroprevalence estimates, that local population structure data is necessary to allow standardisation of results, and the point of care tests used here are limited in sensitivity and specificity.

Conducting epidemiological studies on snakebite in nomadic populations: A methodological paper

INTRODUCTION

Research on snakebite has mostly been conducted on settled populations and current risk factors and potential interventions are therefore most suited for these populations. There is limited epidemiological data on mobile and nomadic populations, who may have a higher risk of snakebite.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a scoping review to gather evidence on survey methods used in nomadic populations and compared them with contemporary survey methods used for snakebite research. Only 16 (10.5%) of 154 articles reportedly conducted on pastoralist nomadic populations actually involved mobile pastoralists. All articles describing snakebite surveys (n = 18) used multistage cluster designs on population census sampling frames, which would not be appropriate for nomadic populations. We used geospatial techniques and open-source high-resolution satellite images to create a digital sampling frame of 50,707 households and used a multistage sampling strategy to survey nomadic and semi-nomadic populations in Samburu County, Kenya. From a sample of 900 geo-located households, we correctly identified and collected data from 573 (65.4%) households, of which 409 were in their original locations and 164 had moved within 5km of their original locations. We randomly sampled 302 (34.6%) households to replace completely abandoned and untraceable households.

CONCLUSION

Highly mobile populations require specific considerations in selecting or creating sampling frames and sampling units for epidemiological research. Snakebite risk has a strong spatial component and using census-based sampling frames would be inappropriate in nomadic populations. We propose using open-source satellite imaging and geographic information systems to improve the conduct of epidemiological research in these populations.

Population immunity to pneumococcal serotypes in Kilifi, Kenya, before and 6 years after the introduction of PCV10 with a catch-up campaign: an observational study of cross-sectional serosurveys

BACKGROUND

In Kilifi (Kenya), a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in 2011 in infants (aged <1 year, 3 + 0 schedule) with a catch-up campaign in children aged 1-4 years. We aimed to measure the effect of PCV10 on population immunity.

METHODS

In this observational study, repeated cross-sectional serosurveys were conducted in independent random samples of 500 children younger than 15 years every 2 years between 2009 and 2017. During these surveys, blood samples were collected by venesection. Concentrations of anti-capsular IgGs against vaccine serotypes (VTs) 1, 4, 5, 6B, 7F, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F, and against serotypes 6A and 19A, were assayed by ELISA. We plotted the geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) by birth year to visualise age-specific antibody profiles. In infants, IgG concentrations of 0·35 μg/mL or higher were considered protective.

FINDINGS

Of 3673 volunteers approached, 2152 submitted samples for analysis across the five surveys. Vaccine introduction resulted in an increase in the proportion of young children with protective IgG concentrations, compared with before vaccine introduction (from 0-33% of infants with VT-specific levels over the correlate of protection in 2009, to 60-94% of infants in 2011). However, among those vaccinated in infancy, GMCs of all ten VTs had waned rapidly by the age of 1, but rose again later in childhood. GMCs among children aged 10-14 years were consistently high over time (eg, the range of GMCs across survey rounds were between 0·45 μg/mL and 1·00 μg/mL for VT 23F and between 2·00 μg/mL and 3·11 μg/mL for VT 19F).

INTERPRETATION

PCV10 in a 3 + 0 schedule elicited protective IgG levels during infancy, when disease risk is high. The high antibody levels in children aged 10-14 years might indicate continued exposure to vaccine serotypes due to residual carriage or to memory responses to cross-reactive antigens. Despite rapid waning of IgG after vaccination, disease incidence among young children in this setting remains low, suggesting that lower thresholds of antibody, or other markers of immunity (eg, memory B cells), may be needed to assess population protection among children who have aged past infancy.

FUNDING

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Wellcome Trust.

New SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant with Spike Protein Mutation Y451H, Kilifi, Kenya, March-May 2023

We report a newly emerged SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant FY.4 that has mutations Y451H in spike and P42L in open reading frame 3a proteins. FY.4 emergence coincided with increased SARS-CoV-2 cases in coastal Kenya during April-May 2023. Continued SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance is needed to identify new lineages to inform COVID-19 outbreak prevention.

Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study

The mortality impact of COVID-19 in Africa remains controversial because most countries lack vital registration. We analysed excess mortality in Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, using 9 years of baseline data. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies suggest most adults here were infected before May 2022. During 5 waves of COVID-19 (April 2020-May 2022) an overall excess mortality of 4.8% (95% PI 1.2%, 9.4%) concealed a significant excess (11.6%, 95% PI 5.9%, 18.9%) among older adults ( ≥ 65 years) and a deficit among children aged 1-14 years (-7.7%, 95% PI -20.9%, 6.9%). The excess mortality rate for January 2020-December 2021, age-standardised to the Kenyan population, was 27.4/100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2-31.6). In Coastal Kenya, excess mortality during the pandemic was substantially lower than in most high-income countries but the significant excess mortality in older adults emphasizes the value of achieving high vaccine coverage in this risk group.

The epidemiology of fecal carriage of nontyphoidal Salmonella among healthy children and adults in three sites in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Despite the importance of non-Typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) disease in Africa, epidemiologic data on carriage and transmission are few. These data are important to understand the transmission of NTS in Africa and to design control strategies.

METHOD

To estimate the prevalence of stool carriage of NTS in Kenya, we conducted a cross-sectional study in Kilifi, Nairobi, and Siaya, sites with a low, moderate and high incidence of invasive NTS disease, respectively. At each site, we randomly selected 100 participants in each age-group of 0-11 months, 12-59 months, 5-14 years, 15-54 years and ≥55 years. We collected stool, venous blood (for hemoglobin and malaria rapid tests), anthropometric measurements, and administered a questionnaire on Water Access Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) practices. Stool samples were cultured on selective agar for Salmonella; suspect isolates underwent serotyping and antimicrobial susceptibility testing.

RESULT

Overall, 53 (3.5%) isolates of NTS were cultured from 1497 samples. Age-adjusted prevalence was 13.1% (95%CI 8.8-17.4) in Kilifi, 0.4% (95%CI 0-1.3) in Nairobi, and 0.9% (95%CI 0-2.0) in Siaya. Prevalence was highest among those aged 15-54 years (6.2%). Of 53 isolates; 5 were S. Enteritidis, 1 was S. Typhimurium. No S. Typhi was isolated. None of the risk factors were associated with carriage of NTS. All isolates were susceptible to all antibiotics tested, including ampicillin, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin and co-trimoxazole.

CONCLUSION

Prevalence of fecal carriage was high in Kilifi, an area of low incidence of invasive NTS disease and was low in areas of higher incidence in Nairobi and Siaya. The age-prevalence, risk factors, geographical and serotype distribution of NTS in carriage differs from invasive disease.

Neurocognitive outcomes of children exposed to and living with HIV aged 3-5 years in Kilifi, Kenya

Introduction

Globally, 1.7 million children are living with HIV, with the majority of them residing in sub-Saharan Africa. Due to reduced rates of vertical transmission of HIV, there is an increasing population of children born to HIV-infected mothers who remain uninfected. There is a growing concern around the development of these children in the antiretroviral therapy era. This study examined the neurocognitive outcomes of children who are HIV-exposed infected (CHEI), HIV-exposed uninfected (CHEU) and HIV-unexposed uninfected (CHUU) and explored the relationship between child neurocognitive outcomes and child's biomedical and caregivers' psychosocial factors.

Methods

CHEI, CHUU and CHEU aged 3-5 years and their caregivers were recruited into the study. Neurocognitive outcomes were assessed using a validated battery of assessments. One-way analysis of variance and covariance (ANOVA and ANCOVA) were used to evaluate differences among the three groups by neurocognitive outcomes. Linear regression models were used to investigate the association between child neurocognitive outcomes and biomedical factors (nutritional status, HIV disease staging) and caregivers' psychosocial factors [symptoms of common mental disorders (CMDs) and parenting behaviour].

Results

The study included 153 children and their caregivers: 43 (28.1%) CHEI, 52 (34.0%) CHEU and 58 (39.9%) CHUU. ANOVA and ANCOVA revealed a significant difference in cognitive ability mean scores across the child groups. Post hoc analysis indicated that CHEU children had higher cognitive ability mean scores than the CHUU group. Better nutritional status was significantly associated with higher cognitive ability scores (β = 0.68, 95% CI [0.18-1.18], p = 0.008). Higher scores of CMDs were negatively associated with inhibitory control (β = -0.28, 95% CI [-0.53 to 0.02], p = 0.036). While comparing HIV stages 2 and 3, large effect sizes were seen in working memory (0.96, CI [0.08-1.80]) and cognitive ability scores (0.83 CI [0.01-1.63]), indicating those in stage 3 had poor performance.

Conclusions

Neurocognitive outcomes were similar across CHEI, CHEU and CHUU, although subtle differences were seen in cognitive ability scores where CHEU had significantly higher cognitive mean scores than the CHUU. Well-designed longitudinal studies are needed to ascertain these findings. Nonetheless, study findings underscore the need for strategies to promote better child nutrition, mental health, and early antiretroviral therapy initiation.

Symptom prevalence and secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in rural Kenyan households: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

We estimated the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household contacts of PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in rural Kenya and analysed risk factors for transmission.

METHODS

We enrolled incident PCR-confirmed cases and their household members. At baseline, a questionnaire, a blood sample, and naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected. Household members were followed 4, 7, 10, 14, 21 and 28 days after the date of the first PCR-positive in the household; naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected at each visit and used to define secondary cases. Blood samples were collected every 1-2 weeks. Symptoms were collected in a daily symptom diary. We used binomial regression to estimate secondary attack rates and survival analysis to analyse risk factors for transmission.

RESULTS

A total of 119 households with at least one positive household member were enrolled between October 2020 and September 2022, comprising 503 household members; 226 remained in follow-up at day 14 (45%). A total of 43 secondary cases arose within 14 days of identification of the primary case, and 81 household members remained negative. The 7-day secondary attack rate was 4% (95% CI 1%-10%), the 14-day secondary attack rate was 28% (95% CI 17%-40%). Of 38 secondary cases with data, eight reported symptoms (21%, 95% CI 8%-34%). Antibody to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein at enrolment was not associated with risk of becoming a secondary case.

CONCLUSION

Households in our setting experienced a lower 7-day attack rate than a recent meta-analysis indicated as the global average (23%-43% depending on variant), and infection is mostly asymptomatic in our setting.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and implications for population immunity: Evidence from two Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Kenya, February-December 2022

BACKGROUND

We sought to estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence within representative samples of the Kenyan population during the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second year of COVID-19 vaccine use.

METHODS

We conducted cross-sectional serosurveys among randomly selected, age-stratified samples of Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) residents in Kilifi and Nairobi. Anti-spike (anti-S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) serostatus was measured using a validated in-house ELISA and antibody concentrations estimated with reference to the WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin.

RESULTS

HDSS residents were sampled in February-June 2022 (Kilifi HDSS N = 852; Nairobi Urban HDSS N = 851) and in August-December 2022 (N = 850 for both sites). Population-weighted coverage for ≥1 doses of COVID-19 vaccine were 11.1% (9.1-13.2%) among Kilifi HDSS residents by November 2022 and 34.2% (30.7-37.6%) among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents by December 2022. Population-weighted anti-S IgG seroprevalence among Kilifi HDSS residents increased from 69.1% (65.8-72.3%) by May 2022 to 77.4% (74.4-80.2%) by November 2022. Within the Nairobi Urban HDSS, seroprevalence by June 2022 was 88.5% (86.1-90.6%), comparable with seroprevalence by December 2022 (92.2%; 90.2-93.9%). For both surveys, seroprevalence was significantly lower among Kilifi HDSS residents than among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents, as were antibody concentrations (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

More than 70% of Kilifi residents and 90% of Nairobi residents were seropositive for anti-S IgG by the end of 2022. There is a potential immunity gap in rural Kenya; implementation of interventions to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake among sub-groups at increased risk of severe COVID-19 in rural settings is recommended.

A long-term observational study of paediatric snakebite in Kilifi County, south-east Kenya

INTRODUCTION

Estimates suggest that one-third of snakebite cases in sub-Saharan Africa affect children. Despite children being at a greater risk of disability and death, there are limited published data. This study has determined the: population-incidence and mortality rate of hospital-attended paediatric snakebite; clinical syndromes of snakebite envenoming; and predictors of severe local tissue damage.

METHODS

All children presenting to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya with snakebite were identified through the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Cases were prospectively registered, admitted for at least 24-hours, and managed on a paediatric high dependency unit (HDU). Households within the KHDSS study area have been included in 4-monthly surveillance and verbal autopsy, enabling calculation of population-incidence and mortality. Predictors of severe local tissue damage were identified using a multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Between 2003 and 2021, there were 19,606 admissions to the paediatric HDU, of which 584 were due to snakebite. Amongst young children (≤5-years age) the population-incidence of hospital-attended snakebite was 11.3/100,000 person-years; for children aged 6-12 years this was 29.1/100,000 person-years. Incidence remained consistent over the study period despite the population size increasing (98,967 person-years in 2006; and 153,453 person-years in 2021). Most cases had local envenoming alone, but there were five snakebite associated deaths. Low haemoglobin; raised white blood cell count; low serum sodium; high systolic blood pressure; and an upper limb bite-site were independently associated with the development of severe local tissue damage.

CONCLUSION

There is a substantial burden of disease due to paediatric snakebite, and the annual number of cases has increased in-line with population growth. The mortality rate was low, which may reflect the species causing snakebite in this region. The identification of independent predictors of severe local tissue damage can help to inform future research to better understand the pathophysiology of this important complication.

Spatial heterogeneity of low-birthweight deliveries on the Kenyan coast

BACKGROUND

Understanding spatial variations in health outcomes is a fundamental component in the design of effective, efficient public health strategies. Here we analyse the spatial heterogeneity of low birthweight (LBW) hospital deliveries from a demographic surveillance site on the Kenyan coast.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis on singleton livebirths that occurred between 2011 and 2021 within the rural areas of the Kilifi Health and demographic surveillance system (KHDSS) was undertaken. Individual-level data was aggregated at enumeration zone (EZ) and sub-location level to estimate the incidence of LBW adjusted for accessibility index using the Gravity model. Finally, spatial variations in LBW were assessed using Martin Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic under Discrete Poisson distribution.

RESULTS

Access adjusted LBW incidence was estimated as 87 per 1,000 person years in the under 1 population (95% CI: 80, 97) at the sub-location level similar to EZ. The adjusted incidence ranged from 35 to 159 per 1,000 person years in the under 1 population at sub-location level. There were six significant clusters identified at sub-location level and 17 at EZ level using the spatial scan statistic.

CONCLUSIONS

LBW is a significant health risk on the Kenya coast, possibly under-estimated from previous health information systems, and the risk of LBW is not homogenously distributed across areas served by the County hospital.

Assessment of gestational age at antenatal care visits among Kenyan women to inform delivery of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in low- and middle-income countries

Background: Maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines that are likely to be implementable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are in final stages of clinical trials. Data on the number of women presenting for antenatal care (ANC) per day and proportion attending within the proposed gestational window for vaccine delivery, is a prerequisite to guide development of vaccine vial size and inform vaccine uptake in this setting. Methods: We undertook administrative review and abstraction of ANC attendance records from 2019 registers of 24 selected health facilities, stratified by the level of care, from Kilifi, Siaya and Nairobi counties in Kenya. Additional data were obtained from Mother and Child Health (MCH) booklets of women in each of the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) areas of Kilifi, Nairobi and Siaya. Data analysis involved descriptive summaries of the number (mean, median) and proportion of women attending ANC within the gestational window period of 28-32 weeks and 24-36 weeks. Results: A total of 62,153 ANC records were abstracted, 33,872 from Kilifi, 19,438 from Siaya and 8,943 from Nairobi Counties. The median (Interquartile range, IQR) number of women attending ANC per day at a gestational age window of 28-32 and 24-36 weeks, respectively, were: 4 (2-6) and 7 (4-12) in dispensaries, 5 (2-9) and 10 (4-19) in health centres and 6 (4-11) and 16 (10-26) in county referral hospitals. In the HDSS areas of Kilifi, Siaya and Nairobi, pregnant women attending at least one ANC visit, within a window of 28-32 weeks, were: 77% (360/470), 75% (590/791) and 67% (547/821), respectively. Conclusions: About 70% of pregnant women across three distinct geographical regions in Kenya, attend ANC within 28-32 weeks of gestation. A multidose vial size with about five doses per vial, approximates daily ANC attendance and would not incur possible wastage in similar settings.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of maternal vaccination and monoclonal antibodies for respiratory syncytial virus in Kenya and South Africa

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a substantial burden of acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5 years, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Maternal vaccine (MV) and next-generation monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates have been shown to reduce RSV disease in infants in phase 3 clinical trials. The cost-effectiveness of these biologics has been estimated using disease burden data from global meta-analyses, but these are sensitive to the detailed age breakdown of paediatric RSV disease, for which there have previously been limited data.

METHODS

We use original hospital-based incidence data from South Africa (ZAF) and Kenya (KEN) collected between 2010 and 2018 of RSV-associated acute respiratory infection (ARI), influenza-like illness (ILI), and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) as well as deaths with monthly age-stratification, supplemented with data on healthcare-seeking behaviour and costs to the healthcare system and households. We estimated the incremental cost per DALY averted (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio or ICER) of public health interventions by MV or mAb for a plausible range of prices (5-50 USD for MV, 10-125 USD for mAb), using an adjusted version of a previously published health economic model of RSV immunisation.

RESULTS

Our data show higher disease incidence for infants younger than 6 months of age in the case of Kenya and South Africa than suggested by earlier projections from community incidence-based meta-analyses of LMIC data. Since MV and mAb provide protection for these youngest age groups, this leads to a substantially larger reduction of disease burden and, therefore, more favourable cost-effectiveness of both interventions in both countries. Using the latest efficacy data and inferred coverage levels based on antenatal care (ANC-3) coverage (KEN: 61.7%, ZAF: 75.2%), our median estimate of the reduction in RSV-associated deaths in children under 5 years in Kenya is 10.5% (95% CI: 7.9, 13.3) for MV and 13.5% (10.7, 16.4) for mAb, while in South Africa, it is 27.4% (21.6, 32.3) and 37.9% (32.3, 43.0), respectively. Starting from a dose price of 5 USD, in Kenya, net cost (for the healthcare system) per (undiscounted) DALY averted for MV is 179 (126, 267) USD, rising to 1512 (1166, 2070) USD at 30 USD per dose; for mAb, it is 684 (543, 895) USD at 20 USD per dose and 1496 (1203, 1934) USD at 40 USD per dose. In South Africa, a MV at 5 USD per dose would be net cost-saving for the healthcare system and net cost per DALY averted is still below the ZAF's GDP per capita at 40 USD dose price (median: 2350, 95% CI: 1720, 3346). For mAb in ZAF, net cost per DALY averted is 247 (46, 510) USD at 20 USD per dose, rising to 2028 (1565, 2638) USD at 50 USD per dose and to 6481 (5364, 7959) USD at 125 USD per dose.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporation of new data indicating the disease burden is highly concentrated in the first 6 months of life in two African settings suggests that interventions against RSV disease may be more cost-effective than previously estimated.

Estimates of the national burden of respiratory syncytial virus in Kenyan children aged under 5 years, 2010-2018

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is among the leading childhood causes of viral pneumonia worldwide. Establishing RSV-associated morbidity and mortality is important in informing the development, delivery strategies, and evaluation of interventions.

METHODS

Using data collected during 2010-2018 from base regions (population-based surveillance studies in western Kenya and the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance Study), we estimated age-specific rates of acute respiratory illness (ARI), severe acute respiratory illness (SARI-defined as hospitalization with cough or difficulty breathing with onset within the past 10 days), and SARI-associated deaths. We extrapolated the rates from the base regions to other regions of Kenya, while adjusting for risk factors of ARI and healthcare seeking behavior, and finally applied the proportions of RSV-positive cases identified from various sentinel and study facilities to the rates to obtain regional age-specific rates of RSV-associated outpatient and non-medically attended ARI and hospitalized SARI and severe ARI that was not hospitalized (non-hospitalized SARI). We applied age-specific RSV case fatality ratios to SARI to obtain estimates of RSV-associated in- and out-of-hospital deaths.

RESULTS

Among Kenyan children aged < 5 years, the estimated annual incidence of outpatient and non-medically attended RSV-associated ARI was 206 (95% credible interval, CI; 186-229) and 226 (95% CI; 204-252) per 1000 children, respectively. The estimated annual rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized RSV-associated SARI were 349 (95% CI; 303-404) and 1077 (95% CI; 934-1247) per 100,000 children respectively. The estimated annual number of in- and out-of-hospital deaths associated with RSV infection in Kenya were 539 (95% CI; 420-779) and 1921 (95% CI; 1495-2774), respectively. Children aged < 6 months had the highest burden of RSV-associated severe disease: 2075 (95% CI; 1818-2394) and 44 (95% CI 25-71) cases per 100,000 children for hospitalized SARI and in-hospital deaths, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest a substantial disease burden due to RSV infection, particularly among younger children. Prioritizing development and use of maternal vaccines and affordable long-lasting monoclonal antibodies could help reduce this burden.

Low frequency of Plasmodium falciparum hrp2/3 deletions from symptomatic infections at a primary healthcare facility in Kilifi, Kenya

There is a growing concern for malaria control in the Horn of Africa region due to the spread and rise in the frequency of Plasmodium falciparum Histidine-rich Protein (hrp) 2 and 3 deletions. Parasites containing these gene deletions escape detection by the major PfHRP2-based rapid diagnostic test. In this study, the presence of Pfhrp2/3 deletions was examined in uncomplicated malaria patients in Kilifi County, from a region of moderate-high malaria transmission. 345 samples were collected from the Pingilikani dispensary in 2019/2020 during routine malaria care for patients attending this primary health care facility. The Carestart™ RDT and microscopy were used to test for malaria. In addition, qPCR was used to confirm the presence of parasites. In total, 249 individuals tested positive for malaria by RDT, 242 by qPCR, and 170 by microscopy. 11 samples that were RDT-negative and microscopy positive and 25 samples that were qPCR-positive and RDT-negative were considered false negative tests and were examined further for Pfhrp2/3 deletions. Pfhrp2/3-negative PCR samples were further genotyped at the dihydrofolate reductase (Pfdhfr) gene which served to further confirm that parasite DNA was present in the samples. The 242 qPCR-positive samples (confirmed the presence of DNA) were also selected for Pfhrp2/3 genotyping. To determine the frequency of false negative results in low parasitemia samples, the RDT- and qPCR-negative samples were genotyped for Pfdhfr before testing for Pfhrp2/3. There were no Pfhrp2 and Pfhrp3 negative but positive for dhfr parasites in the 11 (RDT negative and microscopy positive) and 25 samples (qPCR-positive and RDT-negative). In the larger qPCR-positive sample set, only 5 samples (2.1%) were negative for both hrp2 and hrp3, but positive for dhfr. Of the 5 samples, there were 4 with more than 100 parasites/µl, suggesting true hrp2/3 deletions. These findings revealed that there is currently a low prevalence of Pfhrp2 and Pfhrp3 deletions in the health facility in Kilifi. However, routine monitoring in other primary health care facilities across the different malaria endemicities in Kenya is urgently required to ensure appropriate use of malaria RDTs.

Mortality in rural coastal Kenya measured using the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System: a 16-year descriptive analysis

Background: The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) was established in 2000 to define the incidence and prevalence of local diseases and evaluate the impact of community-based interventions. KHDSS morbidity data have been reported comprehensively but mortality has not been described. This analysis describes mortality in the KHDSS over 16 years. Methods: We calculated mortality rates from 2003-2018 in four intervals of equal duration and assessed differences in mortality across these intervals by age and sex. We calculated the period survival function and median survival using the Kaplan-Meier method and mean life expectancies using abridged life tables. We estimated trend and seasonality by decomposing a time series of monthly mortality rates. We used choropleth maps and random-effects Poisson regression to investigate geographical heterogeneity. Results: Mortality declined by 36% overall between 2003-2018 and by 59% in children aged <5 years. Most of the decline occurred between 2003 and 2006. Among adults, the greatest decline (49%) was observed in those aged 15-54 years. Life expectancy at birth increased by 12 years. Females outlived males by 6 years. Seasonality was only evident in the 1-4 year age group in the first four years. Geographical variation in mortality was ±10% of the median value and did not change over time. Conclusions: Between 2003 and 2018, mortality among children and young adults has improved substantially. The steep decline in 2003-2006 followed by a much slower reduction thereafter suggests improvements in health and wellbeing have plateaued in the last 12 years. However, there is substantial inequality in mortality experience by geographical location.

Perspectives on reasons for suicidal behaviour and recommendations for suicide prevention in Kenya: qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the reasons for suicidal behaviour in Africa, and communities' perception of suicide prevention. A contextualised understanding of these reasons is important in guiding the implementation of potential suicide prevention interventions in specific settings.

AIMS

To understand ideas, experiences and opinions on reasons contributing to suicidal behaviour in the Coast region of Kenya, and provide recommendations for suicide prevention.

METHOD

We conducted a qualitative study with various groups of key informants residing in the Coast region of Kenya, using in-depth interviews. Audio-recorded interviews were transcribed and translated from the local language before thematic inductive content analysis.

RESULTS

From the 25 in-depth interviews, we identified four key themes as reasons given for suicidal behaviour: interpersonal and relationship problems, financial and economic difficulties, mental health conditions and religious and cultural influences. These reasons were observed to be interrelated with each other and well-aligned to the suggested recommendations for suicide prevention. We found six key recommendations from our thematic content analysis: (a) increasing access to counselling and social support, (b) improving mental health awareness and skills training, (c) restriction of suicide means, (d) decriminalisation of suicide, (e) economic and education empowerment and (f) encouraging religion and spirituality.

CONCLUSIONS

The reasons for suicidal behaviour are comparable with high-income countries, but suggested prevention strategies are more contextualised to our setting. A multifaceted approach in preventing suicide in (coastal) Kenya is warranted based on the varied reasons suggested. Community-based interventions will likely improve and increase access to suicide prevention in this study area.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on vaccine coverage in Kilifi, Kenya: A retrospective cohort study

The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented disruption in health service delivery, globally. This study sought to provide evidence on the impact of the pandemic on vaccine coverage in Kilifi County, Kenya. We conducted a vaccine coverage survey between April and June 2021 within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Simple random sampling was used to identify 1500 children aged 6 weeks-59 months. Participants were grouped into three retrospective cohorts based on when they became age-eligible for vaccination: before the pandemic, during the first year, or during the second year of the pandemic. Survival analysis with Cox regression was used to evaluate the association between the time-period at which participants became age-eligible for vaccination and the rate of vaccination within a month of age-eligibility for the third dose of pentavalent vaccine (Pentavalent-3) and within three months of age-eligibility for the first dose of Measles vaccine (MCV-1). A total of 1,341 participants were included in the survey. Compared to the pre-COVID-19 baseline period, the rate of vaccination within a month of age-eligibility for Pentavalent-3 was not significantly different in the first year of the pandemic (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.03, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.90-1.18) and was significantly higher during the second year of the pandemic (aHR 1.33, 95 % CI 1.07-1.65). The rate of vaccination with MCV-1 within three months of age-eligibility was not significantly different among those age-eligible for vaccination during the first year of the pandemic (aHR 1.04, 95 % CI 0.88-1.21) and was 35 % higher during the second year of the pandemic (95 % CI 1.11-1.64), compared to those age-eligible pre-COVID-19. After adjusting for known determinants of vaccination, the COVID-19 pandemic did not adversely affect the rate of vaccination within the KHDSS.

Genomic epidemiology of the rotavirus G2P[4] strains in coastal Kenya pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine introduction, 2012-8

The introduction of rotavirus vaccines into the national immunization programme in many countries has led to a decline in childhood diarrhoea disease burden. Coincidentally, the incidence of some rotavirus group A (RVA) genotypes has increased, which may result from non-vaccine-type replacement. Here, we investigate the evolutionary genomics of rotavirus G2P[4] which has shown an increase in countries that introduced the monovalent Rotarix® vaccine. We examined sixty-three RVA G2P[4] strains sampled from children (aged below 13 years) admitted to Kilifi County Hospital, coastal Kenya, pre- (2012 to June 2014) and post-(July 2014 to 2018) rotavirus vaccine introduction. All the sixty-three genome sequences showed a typical DS-1-like genome constellation (G2-P[4]-I2-R2-C2-M2-A2-N2-T2-E2-H2). Pre-vaccine G2 sequences predominantly classified as sub-lineage IVa-3 and co-circulated with low numbers of sub-lineage IVa-1 strains, whereas post-vaccine G2 sequences mainly classified into sub-lineage IVa-3. In addition, in the pre-vaccine period, P[4] sub-lineage IVa strains co-circulated with low numbers of P[4] lineage II strains, but P[4] sub-lineage IVa strains predominated in the post-vaccine period. On the global phylogeny, the Kenyan pre- and post-vaccine G2P[4] strains clustered separately, suggesting that different virus populations circulated in the two periods. However, the strains from both periods exhibited conserved amino acid changes in the known antigenic epitopes, suggesting that replacement of the predominant G2P[4] cluster was unlikely a result of immune escape. Our findings demonstrate that the pre- and post-vaccine G2P[4] strains circulating in Kilifi, coastal Kenya, differed genetically but likely were antigenically similar. This information informs the discussion on the consequences of rotavirus vaccination on rotavirus diversity.

Complementary measurement of nontyphoidal Salmonella-specific IgG and IgA antibodies in oral fluid and serum

Objectives

Immuno-epidemiological studies of orally acquired, enteric pathogens such as nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) often focus on serological measures of immunity, ignoring potentially relevant oral mucosal responses. In this study we sought to assess the levels and detectability of both oral fluid and serum IgG and IgA to NTS antigens, in endemic and non-endemic populations.

Methods

IgG and IgA antibodies specific for Salmonella Typhimurium and Salmonella Enteritidis O antigen and phase 1 flagellin were assessed using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). Paired oral fluid and serum samples were collected from groups of 50 UK adults, Kenyan adults and Kenyan infants. Additionally, oral fluid alone was collected from 304 Kenyan individuals across a range of ages.

Results

Antigen-specific IgG and IgA was detectable in the oral fluid of both adults and infants. Oral fluid antibody increased with age, peaking in adulthood for both IgG and IgA but a separate peak was also observed for IgA in infants. Oral fluid and serum responses correlated for IgG but not IgA. Despite standardised collection the relationship between oral fluid volume and antibody levels varied with age and country of origin.

Conclusions

Measurement of NTS-specific oral fluid antibody can be used to complement measurement of serum antibody. For IgA in particular, oral fluid may offer insights into how protective immunity to NTS changes as individuals transition with age, from maternal to acquired systemic and mucosal immunity. This may prove useful in helping to guide future vaccine design.

Behavioural and emotional comorbidities in school-aged children with neurological conditions in Kilifi, Kenya, and their long-term consequences

Background

Neurological conditions and mental health problems are common in children in low- and middle-income countries, but the risk factors and downstream impact of these problems on children with neurological conditions are not reported.

Objective

To determine the association of neurological conditions with behavioural and emotional problems in children, the prevalence and risk factors of behavioural and emotional problems, and long-term impact of these conditions.

Methods

Data on multiple neurological conditions and mental health problems were available for 1,616 children (aged 6–9 years) from Kilifi, Kenya. Neurological conditions were diagnosed using standardised tools and clinical examination. Behavioural and emotional problems assessed using Child Behaviour Questionnaire for Parents. Long-term outcomes were obtained from census data of the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Logistic and linear regression were used to measure associations.

Results

Mental health problems were higher in those with any neurological condition compared to those without (24% vs. 12%, p < 0.001). Cognitive (odds ratio (OR) = 2.39; 95% CI: 1.59–3.59), motor (OR = 3.17; 95% CI: 1.72–5.82), hearing (OR = 2.07; 95% CI:1.12–3.83) impairments, and epilepsy (OR = 4.18; 95% CI: 2.69–6.48), were associated with mental health problems. Prevalence of any mental health problem was 15%, with externalizing problems more common than internalizing problems (21% vs. 17%, p = 0.004). Longitudinal follow-up indicated that the disorders affected an individual’s future schooling (e.g. OR = 1.25; 95% CI: 0.14–1.46 following cognitive impairments), occupation (OR = 2.44; 95% CI: 1.09–5.44 following mental health problems), and access to household assets (OR = 2.78; 95% CI: 0.99–7.85 following epilepsy).

Conclusions

Neurological conditions in school-aged children in Kilifi are associated with mental health problems, and both disorders have long-term consequences. Preventive and therapeutic measures for these conditions are needed to improve outcomes of these children.

Differences in epidemiology of enteropathogens in children pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine introduction in Kilifi, coastal Kenya

Background

Kenya introduced Rotarix^® (GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Rixensart, Belgium) vaccination into its national immunization programme beginning July 2014. The impact of this vaccination program on the local epidemiology of various known enteropathogens is not fully understood.

Methods

We used a custom TaqMan Array Card (TAC) to screen for 28 different enteropathogens in 718 stools from children aged less than 13 years admitted to Kilifi County Hospital, coastal Kenya, following presentation with diarrhea in 2013 (before vaccine introduction) and in 2016–2018 (after vaccine introduction). Pathogen positivity rate differences between pre- and post-Rotarix^® vaccination introduction were examined using both univariate and multivariable logistic regression models.

Results

In 665 specimens (92.6%), one or more enteropathogen was detected, while in 323 specimens (48.6%) three or more enteropathogens were detected. The top six detected enteropathogens were: enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (EAggEC; 42.1%), enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC; 30.2%), enterovirus (26.9%), rotavirus group A (RVA; 24.8%), parechovirus (16.6%) and norovirus GI/GII (14.4%). Post-rotavirus vaccine introduction, there was a significant increase in the proportion of samples testing positive for EAggEC (35.7% vs. 45.3%, p = 0.014), cytomegalovirus (4.2% vs. 9.9%, p = 0.008), Vibrio cholerae (0.0% vs. 2.3%, p = 0.019), Strongyloides species (0.8% vs. 3.6%, p = 0.048) and Dientamoeba fragilis (2.1% vs. 7.8%, p = 0.004). Although not reaching statistical significance, the positivity rate of adenovirus 40/41 (5.8% vs. 7.3%, p = 0.444), norovirus GI/GII (11.2% vs. 15.9%, p = 0.089), Shigella species (8.7% vs. 13.0%, p = 0.092) and Cryptosporidium spp. (11.6% vs. 14.7%, p = 0.261) appeared to increase post-vaccine introduction. Conversely, the positivity rate of sapovirus decreased significantly post-vaccine introduction (7.8% vs. 4.0%, p = 0.030) while that of RVA appeared not to change (27.4% vs. 23.5%, p = 0.253). More enteropathogen coinfections were detected per child post-vaccine introduction compared to before (mean: 2.7 vs. 2.3; p = 0.0025).

Conclusions

In this rural Coastal Kenya setting, childhood enteropathogen infection burden was high both pre- and post-rotavirus vaccination introduction. Children who had diarrheal admissions post-vaccination showed an increase in coinfections and changes in specific enteropathogen positivity rates. This study highlights the utility of multipathogen detection platforms such as TAC in understanding etiology of childhood acute gastroenteritis in resource-limited regions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13099-022-00506-z.

Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant childhood morbidity and mortality in the developing world. The determinants of RSV seasonality are of importance in designing interventions. They are poorly understood in tropical and sub-tropical regions in low- and middle-income countries. Our study utilized long-term surveillance data on cases of RSV associated with severe or very severe pneumonia in children aged 1 day to 59 months admitted to the Kilifi County Hospital. A generalized additive model was used to investigate the association between RSV admissions and meteorological variables (maximum temperature, rainfall, absolute humidity); weekly number of births within the catchment population; and school term dates. Furthermore, a time-series-susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model was used to reconstruct an empirical transmission rate which was used as a dependent variable in linear regression and generalized additive models with meteorological variables and school term dates. Maximum temperature, absolute humidity, and weekly number of births were significantly associated with RSV activity in the generalized additive model. Results from the TSIR model indicated that maximum temperature and absolute humidity were significant factors. Rainfall and school term did not yield significant relationships. Our study indicates that meteorological parameters and weekly number of births potentially play a role in the RSV seasonality in this region. More research is required to explore the underlying mechanisms underpinning the observed relationships.

Malaria attributable fractions with changing transmission intensity: Bayesian latent class vs logistic models

Background

Asymptomatic carriage of malaria parasites is common in high transmission intensity areas and confounds clinical case definitions for research studies. This is important for investigations that aim to identify immune correlates of protection from clinical malaria. The proportion of fevers attributable to malaria parasites is widely used to define different thresholds of parasite density associated with febrile episodes. The varying intensity of malaria transmission was investigated to check whether it had a significant impact on the parasite density thresholds. The same dataset was used to explore an alternative statistical approach, using the probability of developing fevers as a choice over threshold cut-offs. The former has been reported to increase predictive power.

Methods

Data from children monitored longitudinally between 2005 and 2017 from Junju and Chonyi in Kilifi, Kenya were used. Performance comparison of Bayesian-latent class and logistic power models in estimating malaria attributable fractions and probabilities of having fever given a parasite density with changing malaria transmission intensity was done using Junju cohort. Zero-inflated beta regressions were used to assess the impact of using probabilities to evaluate anti-merozoite antibodies as correlates of protection, compared with multilevel binary regression using data from Chonyi and Junju.

Results

Malaria transmission intensity declined from over 49% to 5% between 2006 and 2017, respectively. During this period, malaria attributable fraction varied between 27–59% using logistic regression compared to 10–36% with the Bayesian latent class approach. Both models estimated similar patterns of fevers attributable to malaria with changing transmission intensities. The Bayesian latent class model performed well in estimating the probabilities of having fever, while the latter was efficient in determining the parasite density threshold. However, compared to the logistic power model, the Bayesian algorithm yielded lower estimates for both attributable fractions and probabilities of fever. In modelling the association of merozoite antibodies and clinical malaria, both approaches resulted in comparable estimates, but the utilization of probabilities had a better statistical fit.

Conclusions

Malaria attributable fractions, varied with an overall decline in the malaria transmission intensity in this setting but did not significantly impact the outcomes of analyses aimed at identifying immune correlates of protection. These data confirm the statistical advantage of using probabilities over binary data.

Healthcare utilization by children with neurological impairments and disabilities in rural Kenya: a retrospective cohort study combined with secondary analysis of audit data

Background: There is a paucity of data on healthcare utilization by children with neurological impairments (NI) in sub-Saharan Africa. We determined the rate, risk factors, causes, and outcomes of hospital admission and utilization patterns for rehabilitative care among children with NI in a defined rural area in Kenya. Methods: We designed two sub-studies to address the primary objectives. Firstly, we retrospectively observed 251 children aged 6–9 years with NI and 2162 age-matched controls to determine the rate, causes and outcomes of hospitalization in a local referral hospital. The two cohorts were identified from an epidemiological survey conducted in 2015 in a defined geographical area. Secondly, we reviewed hospital records to characterize utilization patterns for rehabilitative care. Results: Thirty-four in-patient admissions occurred in 8503 person-years of observation (PYO), yielding a crude rate of 400 admissions per 100 000 PYO (95% confidence interval (Cl): 286–560). The risk of admission was similar between cases and controls (rate ratio=0.70, 95%CI: 0.10–2.30, p = 0.31). The presence of electricity in the household was associated with reduced odds of admission (odds ratio=0.32, 95% Cl: 0.10–0.90, p < 0.01). Seizures and malaria were the main causes of admission. We confirmed six (0.3%) deaths during the follow-up period. Over 93% of outpatient paediatric visits for rehabilitative care were related to cerebral palsy and intellectual developmental delay. Health education (87%), rehabilitative exercises (79%) and assistive technology (64%) were the most common interventions. Conclusions: Surprisingly, the risk of hospitalization was not different between children with NI and those without, possibly because those with severe NI who died before this follow-up were under seclusion and restraint in the community. Evidence-based and tailored rehabilitative interventions are urgently required based on the existing secondary data.

Detection of pathogens associated with early-onset neonatal sepsis in cord blood at birth using quantitative PCR

Background: Early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) typically begins prior to, during or soon after birth and may be rapidly fatal. There is paucity of data on the aetiology of EONS in sub-Saharan Africa due to limited diagnostic capacity in this region, despite the associated significant mortality and long-term neurological impairment. Methods: We compared pathogens detected in cord blood samples between neonates admitted to hospital with possible serious bacterial infection (pSBI) in the first 48 hours of life (cases) and neonates remaining well (controls). Cord blood was systematically collected at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH) from 2011-2016, and later tested for 21 bacterial, viral and protozoal targets using multiplex PCR via TaqMan Array Cards (TAC). Results: Among 603 cases (101 [17%] of whom died), 179 (30%) tested positive for ≥1 target and 37 (6.1%) tested positive for multiple targets. Klebsiella oxytoca, Escherichia coli/Shigella spp., Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Streptococcus pyogenes were commonest. Among 300 controls, 79 (26%) tested positive for ≥1 target, 11 (3.7%) were positive for multiple targets, and K. oxytoca and P. aeruginosa were most common. Cumulative odds ratios across controls: cases (survived): cases (died) were E. coli/Shigella spp. 2.6 (95%CI 1.6-4.4); E. faecalis 4.0 (95%CI 1.1-15); S. agalactiae 4.5 (95%CI 1.6-13); Ureaplasma spp. 2.9 (95%CI 1.3-6.4); Enterovirus 9.1 (95%CI 2.3-37); and Plasmodium spp. 2.9 (95%CI 1.4-6.2). Excluding K. oxytoca and P. aeruginosa as likely contaminants, aetiology was attributed in 9.4% (95%CI 5.1-13) cases using TAC. Leading pathogen attributions by TAC were E. coli/Shigella spp. (3.5% (95%CI 1.7-5.3)) and Ureaplasma spp. (1.7% (95%CI 0.5-3.0)). Conclusions: Cord blood sample may be useful in describing EONS pathogens at birth, but more specific tests are needed for individual diagnosis. Careful sampling of cord blood using aseptic techniques is crucial to minimize contamination. In addition to culturable bacteria, Ureaplasma and Enterovirus were causes of EONS.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in three Kenyan health and demographic surveillance sites, December 2020-May 2021

BACKGROUND

Most of the studies that have informed the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya have relied on samples that are not representative of the general population. We conducted population-based serosurveys at three Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) to determine the cumulative incidence of infection with SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

We selected random age-stratified population-based samples at HDSSs in Kisumu, Nairobi and Kilifi, in Kenya. Blood samples were collected from participants between 01 Dec 2020 and 27 May 2021. No participant had received a COVID-19 vaccine. We tested for IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein using ELISA. Locally-validated assay sensitivity and specificity were 93% (95% CI 88-96%) and 99% (95% CI 98-99.5%), respectively. We adjusted prevalence estimates using classical methods and Bayesian modelling to account for the sampling scheme and assay performance.

RESULTS

We recruited 2,559 individuals from the three HDSS sites, median age (IQR) 27 (10-78) years and 52% were female. Seroprevalence at all three sites rose steadily during the study period. In Kisumu, Nairobi and Kilifi, seroprevalences (95% CI) at the beginning of the study were 36.0% (28.2-44.4%), 32.4% (23.1-42.4%), and 14.5% (9.1-21%), and respectively; at the end they were 42.0% (34.7-50.0%), 50.2% (39.7-61.1%), and 24.7% (17.5-32.6%), respectively. Seroprevalence was substantially lower among children (<16 years) than among adults at all three sites (p≤0.001).

CONCLUSION

By May 2021 in three broadly representative populations of unvaccinated individuals in Kenya, seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 25-50%. There was wide variation in cumulative incidence by location and age.

Impact of Intermittent Presumptive Treatment for Malaria in Pregnancy on Hospital Birth Outcomes on the Kenyan Coast

BACKGROUND

Intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) for pregnant women with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is widely implemented for the prevention of malaria in pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes. The efficacy of SP is declining, and there are concerns that IPTp may have reduced impact in areas of high resistance. We sought to determine the protection afforded by SP as part of IPTp against adverse birth outcomes in an area with high levels of SP resistance on the Kenyan coast.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of surveillance data on deliveries at the Kilifi County Hospital between 2015 and 2021 was undertaken in an area of low malaria transmission and high parasite mutations associated with SP resistance. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to estimate the effect of SP doses on the risk of low birthweight (LBW) deliveries and stillbirths.

RESULTS

Among 27 786 deliveries, 3 or more doses of IPTp-SP were associated with a 27% reduction in the risk of LBW (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], .64-.83; P < .001) compared with no dose. A dose-response association was observed with increasing doses of SP from the second trimester linked to increasing protection against LBW deliveries. Three or more doses of IPTp-SP were also associated with a 21% reduction in stillbirth deliveries (aOR, 0.79; 95% CI, .65-.97; P = .044) compared with women who did not take any dose of IPTp-SP.

CONCLUSIONS

The continued significant association of SP on LBW deliveries suggests that the intervention may have a non-malaria impact on pregnancy outcomes.

Undertaking Community Engagement for a Controlled Human Malaria Infection Study in Kenya: Approaches and Lessons Learnt

Human infection studies (HIS) involve deliberately infecting healthy volunteers with disease-causing pathogens under controlled conditions. These studies are "controlled" by way of using specific types of pathogens, including dose, and the availability of emergency medical facilities to research volunteers. Most HIS involve diseases whose treatment is known and are done to accelerate the development of novel therapeutics such as vaccines, to address emerging and existing infectious diseases. Traditionally, HIS have been conducted primarily in high-income countries (HICs) but are now increasingly being conducted in low-and-middle income countries (LMICs). In LMICs settings, HIS are likely to raise concerns among various stakeholders including participating populations and regulatory bodies, that are unfamiliar with this type of research. Deliberately infecting a healthy individual with a disease-causing pathogen seems to go against the normal practice of medicine of "do no harm". Such types of studies can give rise to increased rumors and jeopardize research participation in study activities, including non-HIS research. Community engagement can be one approach to address particular issues that HIS studies raise through meaningfully engaging with communities, where views and voices inform the conduct of HIS studies. In addition, engagement can inform the ethical conduct and acceptability of HIS studies in LMICs settings and provide opportunities for sharing information, listening to, and responding to concerns and views from potential participants, and the larger community in which the study would be conducted. Despite community engagement being an important aspect to consider, very few published and gray literature cover the types of approaches that have been used, and lessons learnt in engagement for HIS. This article outlinesthe community engagement approaches that were used to engage stakeholders and communities for malaria HIS-controlled human malaria infection (CHMI), undertaken in Kilifi, Kenya. It outlines the engagement activities across the research cycle, from activities conducted during protocol development, to planning, and implementation of the study. We discuss the challenges experienced, lessons learnt, and provide some recommendations for engagement around HIS.

Detection of pathogens associated with early-onset neonatal sepsis in cord blood at birth using quantitative PCR

Background: Early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) typically begins prior to, during or soon after birth and may be rapidly fatal. There is paucity of data on the aetiology of EONS in sub-Saharan Africa due to limited diagnostic capacity in this region, despite the associated significant mortality and long-term neurological impairment. Methods: We compared pathogens detected in cord blood samples between neonates admitted to hospital with possible serious bacterial infection (pSBI) in the first 48 hours of life (cases) and neonates remaining well (controls). Cord blood was systematically collected at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH) from 2011-2016, and later tested for 21 bacterial, viral and protozoal targets using multiplex PCR via TaqMan Array Cards (TAC). Results: Among 603 cases (101 [17%] of whom died), 179 (30%) tested positive for ≥1 target and 37 (6.1%) tested positive for multiple targets. Klebsiella oxytoca, Escherichia coli/Shigella spp., Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Streptococcus pyogenes were commonest. Among 300 controls, 79 (26%) tested positive for ≥1 target, 11 (3.7%) were positive for multiple targets, and K. oxytoca and P. aeruginosa were most common. Cumulative odds ratios across controls: cases (survived): cases (died) were E. coli/Shigella spp. 2.6 (95%CI 1.6-4.4); E. faecalis 4.0 (95%CI 1.1-15); S. agalactiae 4.5 (95%CI 1.6-13); Ureaplasma spp. 2.9 (95%CI 1.3-6.4); Enterovirus 9.1 (95%CI 2.3-37); and Plasmodium spp. 2.9 (95%CI 1.4-6.2). Excluding K. oxytoca and P. aeruginosa as likely contaminants, aetiology was attributed in 9.4% (95%CI 5.1-13) cases using TAC. Leading pathogen attributions by TAC were E. coli/Shigella spp. (3.5% (95%CI 1.7-5.3)) and Ureaplasma spp. (1.7% (95%CI 0.5-3.0)). Conclusions: Cord blood sample may be useful in describing EONS pathogens at birth, but more specific tests are needed for individual diagnosis. Careful sampling of cord blood using aseptic techniques is crucial to minimize contamination. In addition to culturable bacteria, Ureaplasma and Enterovirus were causes of EONS.

Incidence of chikungunya virus infections among Kenyan children with neurological disease, 2014-2018: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Neurological complications due to chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection have been described in different parts of the world, with children being disproportionately affected. However, the burden of CHIKV-associated neurological disease in Africa is currently unknown and given the lack of diagnostic facilities in routine care it is possible that CHIKV is an unrecognized etiology among children with encephalitis or other neurological illness.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We estimated the incidence of CHIKV infection among children hospitalized with neurological disease in Kilifi County, coastal Kenya. We used reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to systematically test for CHIKV in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples from children aged <16 years hospitalized with symptoms of neurological disease at Kilifi County Hospital between January 2014 and December 2018. Clinical records were linked to the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System and population incidence rates of CHIKV infection estimated. There were 18,341 pediatric admissions for any reason during the 5-year study period, of which 4,332 (24%) had CSF collected. The most common clinical reasons for CSF collection were impaired consciousness, seizures, and coma (47%, 22%, and 21% of all collections, respectively). After acute investigations done for immediate clinical care, CSF samples were available for 3,980 admissions, of which 367 (9.2%) were CHIKV RT-PCR positive. Case fatality among CHIKV-positive children was 1.4% (95% CI 0.4, 3.2). The annual incidence of CHIKV-associated neurological disease varied between 13 to 58 episodes per 100,000 person-years among all children <16 years old. Among children aged <5 years, the incidence of CHIKV-associated neurological disease was 77 per 100,000 person-years, compared with 20 per 100,000 for cerebral malaria and 7 per 100,000 for bacterial meningitis during the study period. Because of incomplete case ascertainment due to children not presenting to hospital, or not having CSF collected, these are likely minimum estimates. Study limitations include reliance on hospital-based surveillance and limited CSF sampling in children in coma or other contraindications to lumbar puncture, both of which lead to under-ascertainment of incidence and of case fatality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed that CHIKV infections are relatively more common than cerebral malaria and bacterial meningitis among children hospitalized with neurological disease in coastal Kenya. Given the wide distribution of CHIKV mosquito vectors, studies to determine the geographic extent of CHIKV-associated neurological disease in Africa are essential.

TRUE-1: Trial of Repurposed Unithiol for snakebite Envenoming phase 1 (safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in healthy Kenyan adults)

Background: Snakebites affect over 5 million people each year, and over 100,000 per year die as a result. The only available treatment is antivenom, which has many shortcomings including high cost, intravenous administration, and high risk of adverse events. One of the most abundant and harmful components of viper venoms are the zinc-dependent snake venom metalloproteinases (SVMPs). Unithiol is a chelating agent which is routinely used to treat heavy metal poisoning. In vivo experiments in small animal models have demonstrated that unithiol can prevent local tissue damage and death caused by a certain viper species. This phase I clinical trial will assess the safety of ascending doses of unithiol with a view for repurposing for snakebite indication.

Methods: This open label, single agent, phase I clinical trial of a repurposed drug has a primary objective to evaluate the safety of escalating doses of unithiol, and a secondary objective to describe its pharmacokinetics. In total, 64 healthy Kenyan volunteers from Kilifi County will be dosed in consecutive groups of eight, with dose escalation decisions dependent on review of safety data by an independent data safety monitoring board. Four groups will receive ascending single oral doses, two will receive multiple oral doses, and two will receive single intravenous doses. Follow-up will be for 6-months and includes full adverse event reporting. Pharmacokinetic analysis will define the Cmax, Tmax, half-life and renal elimination.

Conclusions: This clinical trial will assess the safety and tolerability of a promising oral therapeutic in a relevant setting where snakebites are prevalent. Unithiol is likely to be safer than antivenom, is easier to manufacture, has activity against diverse snake species, and can be administered orally, and thus shows promise for repurposing for tropical snakebite.

Pan African Clinical Trials Registry: PACTR202103718625048 (3/3/2021)

Neurological impairment and disability in children in rural Kenya

AIM

To investigate geographical change over time in the burden of neurological impairments in school-aged children in a demographic surveillance area.

METHOD

We investigated changes in neurological impairment prevalence in five domains (epilepsy and cognitive, hearing, vision, and motor impairments) using similar two-phase surveys conducted in 2001 (n=10 218) and 2015 (n=11 223) and determined changes in location-level prevalence, geographical clustering, and significant risk factors for children aged 6 to 9 years (mean 7y 6mo, SD 1y) of whom 50.4% were males. Admission trends for preterm birth, low birthweight (LBW), and encephalopathy were determined using admission data to a local hospital.

RESULTS

Overall prevalence for any neurological impairment decreased from 61 per 1000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 48.0-74.0) in 2001 to 44.7 per 1000 (95% CI 40.9-48.6) in 2015 (p<0.001). There was little evidence of geographical variation in the prevalence of neurological impairments in either survey. The association between neurological impairments and some risk factors changed significantly with year of survey; for example, the increased association of adverse perinatal events with hearing impairments (exponentiated coefficient for the interaction=5.94, p=0.03). Annual admission rates with preterm birth (rate ratio 1.08, range 1.07-1.09), LBW (rate ratio 1.08, range 1.06-1.10), and encephalopathy (rate ratio 1.08, range 1.06-1.09) significantly increased between 2005 and 2016 (p<0.001).

INTERPRETATION

There was a significant decline in the prevalence of neurological impairments and differential changes in the associations of some risk factors with neurological impairments over the study period. Limited geographical variation suggests that similar interventions are appropriate across the defined area.

Measurement characteristics and correlates of HIV-related stigma among adults living with HIV: a cross-sectional study from coastal Kenya

OBJECTIVE

We studied the psychometric properties of the 12-item short version of the Berger HIV stigma scale and assessed the correlates of HIV-related stigma among adults living with HIV on the Kenyan coast.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Comprehensive Care and Research Centre in the Kilifi County Hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults living with HIV on combination antiretroviral therapy were recruited and interviewed between February and April 2018 (n=450).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

HIV-related stigma.

RESULTS

450 participants with a median age of 43 years (IQR=36-50) took part in the study. Of these, 356 (79.1%) were female. Scale reliability and validity were high (alpha=0.80, test-retest reliability intraclass correlation coefficient=0.92). Using confirmatory factor analysis, we observed that the 12-item short version of the HIV stigma scale had a good fit for its hypothesised model (Comparative Fit Index=0.966, Tucker Lewis Index=0.955, root mean square error of approximation=0.044). Multigroup confirmatory factor analysis indicated measurement invariance across gender and age groups as ΔCFI was ≤0.01. Multivariate linear regression established that being female (β=2.001, 95% CI: 0.21 to 3.80, p=0.029), HIV status non-disclosure (β=4.237, 95% CI: 1.27 to 7.20, p=0.005) and co-occurrence of depressive and anxiety symptoms (β=6.670, 95% CI: 3.40 to 9.94, p<0.001) were significant predictors of perceived HIV-related stigma and that these variables accounted for 10.2% of the explained variability in HIV-related stigma among adults living with HIV from Kilifi.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that the 12-item short version of the HIV stigma scale is a valid and reliable measure of HIV stigma in Kenya. Furthermore, our study indicates that interventions aimed at reducing stigma need to take into account gender to address the specific needs of women, people who have not disclosed their HIV status, and those exhibiting symptoms of depression and anxiety, thereby improving their quality of life.

The burden of neurological impairments and disability in older children measured in disability-adjusted life-years in rural Kenya

Neurological impairment (NI) and disability are common in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but the overall burden in terms of morbidity and mortality in older children remains unknown. We estimated the burden of NI in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) for older children in a defined rural setting in Kenya. We used empirical and literature estimates to model the overall burden for children aged 5-14 years in five domains: epilepsy (lifetime and active) and moderate/severe cognitive, hearing, motor, and visual impairments. We obtained internally consistent estimates of prevalence, mortality, and transitional hazards using DisMod II software. Disability weights and life expectancy estimates were based on the global burden of disease (GBD) studies. We used the most plausible parameters to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs and their bootstrapped 95% uncertainty intervals (95%UI) for the defined area. NI in the five domains resulted in a total of 4587 (95%UI 4459-4715) absolute DALYs or 53 (95%UI 39-67) DALYs per 1000 children aged 5-14 years, of which 83% were YLLs and 17% YLDs. Girls had significantly more YLLs and DALYs than boys (p-values <0.001, respectively). Besides being the leading cause of fatal and non-fatal outcomes, epilepsy accounted for the greatest proportion of the total burden for a single domain (20 DALYs per 1000, 95%UI 11-26, or 38.5% of the total DALYs). Visual impairment accounted for the least proportion of the total burden (6 per 1000, 95%UI 1-17, or 12.1%). Children with NI and disability bear a significantly high burden of fatal and non-fatal outcomes. The burden is highest among girls and those with childhood-onset epilepsy. We recommend active identification, treatment, and rehabilitative support for the affected children to prevent premature mortality and improve their quality of life.

Spatio-temporal distribution of antimalarial drug resistant gene mutations in a Plasmodium falciparum parasite population from Kilifi, Kenya: A 25-year retrospective study

Background: Antimalarial drug resistance is a major obstacle to sustainable malaria control. Here we use amplicon sequencing to describe molecular markers of drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum parasites from Kilifi county in the coastal region of Kenya over a 25-year period. Methods: We performed P. falciparum amplicon sequencing on 1162 malaria-infected blood samples collected between 1994 and 2018 to identify markers of antimalarial drug resistance in the Pfcrt, Pfdhfr, Pfdhps, Pfmdr1, Pfexo, Pfkelch13, plasmepsin 2/3, Pfarps10, Pffd, and Pfmdr2 genes. We further interrogated parasite population structure using a genetic barcode of 101 drug resistance-unrelated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) distributed across the genomes of 1245 P. falciparum parasites. Results: Two major changes occurred in the parasite population over the 25 years studied. In 1994, approximately 75% of parasites carried the marker of chloroquine resistance, CVIET. This increased to 100% in 1999 and then declined steadily, reaching 6.7% in 2018. Conversely, the quintuple mutation form of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance increased from 16.7% in 1994 to 83.6% in 2018. Several non-synonymous mutations were identified in the Kelch13 gene, although none of them are currently associated with artemisinin resistance. We observed a temporal increase in the Pfmdr1 NFD haplotype associated with lumefantrine resistance, but observed no evidence of piperaquine resistance. SNPs in other parts of the genome showed no significant temporal changes despite the marked changes in drug resistance loci over this period. Conclusions: We identified substantial changes in molecular markers of P. falciparum drug resistance over 25 years in coastal Kenya, but no associated changes in the parasite population structure.

Tuberculosis poor treatment outcomes and its determinants in Kilifi County, Kenya: a retrospective cohort study from 2012 to 2019

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the leading causes of deaths in Africa, monitoring its treatment outcome is essential to evaluate treatment effectiveness. The study aimed to evaluate proportion of poor TB treatment outcomes (PTO) and its determinants during six-months of treatment at Kilifi County, Kenya.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of data from the TB surveillance system (TIBU) in Kilifi County, Kenya from 2012 to 2019. The outcome of interest was PTO (lost-to-follow-up (LTFU), death, transferred out, treatment failure, drug resistance) or successful treatment (cured or completed treatment). We performed time-stratified (at three months follow-up) survival regression analyses accounting for sub-county heterogeneity to determine factors associated with PTO.

Results

We included 14,706 TB patients, their median (IQR) age was 37 (28–50) years and 8,791 (60%) were males. A total of 13,389 (91%) were on first line anti-TB treatment (2RHZE/4RH), 4,242 (29%) were HIV infected and 192 (1.3%) had other underlying medical conditions. During 78,882 person-months of follow-up, 2,408 (16%) patients had PTO: 1,074 (7.3%) deaths, 776 (5.3%) LTFU, 415 (2.8%) transferred out, 103 (0.7%) treatment failure and 30 (0.2%) multidrug resistance. The proportion of poor outcome increased from 7.9% in 2012 peaking at 2018 (22.8%) and slightly declining to 20% in 2019 (trend test P = 0.03). Over two-thirds 1,734 (72%) poor outcomes occurred within first three months of follow-up. In the first three months of TB treatment, overweight ((aHR 0.85 (95%CI 0.73–0.98), HIV infected not on ARVS (aHR 1.72 (95% CI 1.28–2.30)) and year of starting treatment were associated with PTO. However, in the last three months of treatment, elderly age ≥50 years (aHR 1.26 (95%CI 1.02–1.55), a retreatment patient (aHR 1.57 (95%CI 1.28–1.93), HIV infected not on ARVs (aHR 2.56 (95%CI 1.39–4.72), other underlying medical conditions (aHR 2.24 (95%CI 1.41–3.54)) and year of starting treatment were positively associated with PTO while being a female (aHR 0.83 (95%CI 0.70–0.97)) was negatively associated with PTO.

Conclusions

Over two-thirds of poor outcomes occur in the first three months of TB treatment, therefore greater efforts are needed during this phase. Interventions targeting HIV infected and other underlying medical conditions, the elderly and retreated patients provide an opportunity to improve TB treatment outcome.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-022-00807-4.

Correlates of health-related quality of life in primary caregivers of perinatally HIV infected and HIV exposed uninfected adolescents at the Kenyan Coast

BACKGROUND

Mothers and other primary caregivers play a crucial role in looking after perinatally HIV infected, and HIV exposed uninfected adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa. Day- to-day caregiving in the context of limited instrumental support and added biomedical risk (HIV seropositivity) may expose these caregivers to adverse states of health. Unfortunately, very few studies have examined their health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Our study documents the HRQoL profile, and associated factors in primary caregivers of perinatally HIV infected, perinatally HIV exposed but uninfected and HIV unexposed/uninfected adolescents aged 12-17 years at the Kenyan Coast.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional analysis of 485 primary caregivers: 195 of perinatally HIV infected adolescents, 128 of perinatally HIV exposed but uninfected adolescents and 162 of HIV unexposed/uninfected adolescents. All caregivers completed a self-report measure of HRQoL (having 8 subscales), depressive symptoms, and parenting stress. They also provided their sociodemographic information and that of the care recipients. We used one-way analysis of variance to assess statistical differences among the groups. Linear regression analyses were used to identify correlates of HRQoL.

RESULTS

Overall, caregivers of HIV unexposed/uninfected adolescents reported significantly higher mean HRQoL scores than the other caregivers in the overall HRQoL domain and majority of the subscales. There were no statistical differences in the overall HRQoL scores and most subscales between caregivers of HIV exposed adolescents. Linear regression analyses across the sample indicated that depressive symptoms, increasing age of caregiver, and caring for an adolescent perinatally exposed to HIV were significantly associated with reduced HRQoL at both the overall and sub-scale level. Having a professional job relative to subsistence farming was the only factor associated with improved overall HRQoL. At subscale level, higher socioeconomic status correlated positively with HRQoL while being a grandparent, level of education, parenting stress were negatively associated with HRQoL.

CONCLUSIONS

Caregivers in this sample, especially those who are ageing, at risk of mental ill-health, and taking care of adolescents perinatally exposed to HIV, appear to be vulnerable to poor quality of life. Inclusive and multi-component interventions tailored to the caregivers' psychosocial and mental needs will potentially enhance their quality of life.

Detection of pathogens associated with early-onset neonatal sepsis in cord blood at birth using quantitative PCR

Background: Early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) typically begins prior to, during or soon after birth and may be rapidly fatal. There is paucity of data on the aetiology of EONS in sub-Saharan Africa due to limited diagnostic capacity in this region, despite the associated significant mortality and long-term neurological impairment. Methods: We compared pathogens detected in cord blood samples between neonates admitted to hospital with possible serious bacterial infection (pSBI) in the first 48 hours of life (cases) and neonates remaining well (controls). Cord blood was systematically collected at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH) from 2011-2016, and later tested for 21 bacterial, viral and protozoal targets using multiplex PCR via TaqMan Array Cards (TAC). Results: Among 603 cases (101 [17%] of whom died), 179 (30%) tested positive for ≥1 target and 37 (6.1%) tested positive for multiple targets. Klebsiella oxytoca, Escherichia coli/Shigella spp., Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Streptococcus pyogenes were commonest. Among 300 controls, 79 (26%) tested positive for ≥1 target, 11 (3.7%) were positive for multiple targets, and K. oxytoca and P. aeruginosa were most common. Cumulative odds ratios across controls: cases (survived): cases (died) were E. coli/Shigella spp. 2.6 (95%CI 1.6-4.4); E. faecalis 4.0 (95%CI 1.1-15); S. agalactiae 4.5 (95%CI 1.6-13); Ureaplasma spp. 2.9 (95%CI 1.3-6.4); Enterovirus 9.1 (95%CI 2.3-37); and Plasmodium spp. 2.9 (95%CI 1.4-6.2). Excluding K. oxytoca and P. aeruginosa as likely contaminants, aetiology was attributed in 9.4% (95%CI 5.1-13) cases using TAC. Leading pathogen attributions by TAC were E. coli/Shigella spp. (3.5% (95%CI 1.7-5.3)) and Ureaplasma spp. (1.7% (95%CI 0.5-3.0)). Conclusions: Cord blood sample may be useful in describing EONS pathogens at birth, but more specific tests are needed for individual diagnosis. Careful sampling of cord blood using aseptic techniques is crucial to minimize contamination. In addition to culturable bacteria, Ureaplasma and Enterovirus were causes of EONS.

Validating measures of stigma against those with mental illness among a community sample in Kilifi Kenya

BACKGROUND

Stigma against persons with mental illness is a universal phenomenon, but culture influences the understanding of etiology of mental illness and utilization of health services.

METHODS

We validated Kiswahili versions of three measures of stigma which were originally developed in the United Kingdom: Community Attitudes Toward the Mentally Ill Scale (CAMI), Reported and Intended Behaviors Scale (RIBS) and Mental Health Awareness Knowledge Schedule (MAKS) and evaluated their psychometric properties using a community sample (N = 616) in Kilifi, Kenya.

RESULTS

Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the one-factor solution for RIBS [root mean-squared error of approximation (RMSEA) < 0.01, comparative fit index (CFI) = 1.00, Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) = 1.01] and two-factor solution for MAKS (RMSEA = 0.04, CFI = 0.96, TLI = 0.95). A 23-item, three-factor model provided the best indices of goodness of fit for CAMI (RMSEA = 0.04, CFI = 0.90, TLI = 0.89). MAKS converged with both CAMI and RIBS. Internal consistency was good for the RIBS and acceptable for CAMI and MAKS. Test-retest reliabilities were excellent for RIBS and poor for CAMI and MAKS, but kappa scores for inter-rater agreement were relatively low for these scales. Results support validity of the original MAKS and RIBS scale and a modified CAMI scale and suggest that stigma is not an enduring trait in this population. The low kappa scores are consistent with first kappa paradox which is due to adjustment for agreements by chance in case of marginal prevalence values.

CONCLUSIONS

Kiswahili versions of the MAKS, RIBS and a modified version of the CAMI are valid for use in the study population. Stigma against people with mental illness may not be an enduring trait in this population.

Mortality in rural coastal Kenya measured using the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System: a 16-year descriptive analysis

Background: The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) was established in 2000 to define the incidence and prevalence of local diseases and evaluate the impact of community-based interventions. KHDSS morbidity data have been reported comprehensively but mortality has not been described. This analysis describes mortality in the KHDSS over 16 years. Methods: We calculated mortality rates from 2003–2018 in four intervals of equal duration and assessed differences in mortality across these intervals by age and sex. We calculated the period survival function and median survival using the Kaplan–Meier method and mean life expectancies using abridged life tables. We estimated trend and seasonality by decomposing a time series of monthly mortality rates. We used choropleth maps and random-effects Poisson regression to investigate geographical heterogeneity. Results: Mortality declined by 36% overall between 2003–2018 and by 59% in children aged <5 years. Most of the decline occurred between 2003 and 2006. Among adults, the greatest decline (49%) was observed in those aged 15–54 years. Life expectancy at birth increased by 12 years. Females outlived males by 6 years. Seasonality was only evident in the 1–4 year age group in the first four years. Geographical variation in mortality was ±10% of the median value and did not change over time. Conclusions: Between 2003 and 2018, mortality among children and young adults has improved substantially. The steep decline in 2003–2006 followed by a much slower reduction thereafter suggests improvements in health and wellbeing have plateaued in the last 12 years. However, there is substantial inequality in mortality experience by geographical location.

Alcohol and illicit drug use among young people living with HIV compared to their uninfected peers from the Kenyan coast: prevalence and risk indicators

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, there is paucity of research on substance use patterns among young people living with HIV (YLWH). To address the gap, we sought to: i) determine the prevalence of substance use, specifically alcohol and illicit drug use, among YLWH compared to their HIV-uninfected peers; ii) investigate the independent association between young people's HIV infection status and substance use; iii) investigate the risk indicators for substance use among these young people.

METHODS

Between November 2018 and September 2019, a cross-sectional study was conducted at the Kenyan coast recruiting 819 young people aged 18-24 years (407 HIV-positive). Alcohol and drug use disorders identification tests (AUDIT and DUDIT) were administered via audio computer-assisted self-interview alongside other measures. Logistic regression was used to determine substance use risk indicators.

RESULTS

The point prevalence of current substance use was significantly lower among YLWH than HIV-uninfected youths: current alcohol use, 13% vs. 24%, p <  0.01; current illicit drug use, 7% vs. 15%, p <  0.01; current alcohol and illicit drug use comorbidity, 4 vs. 11%, p <  0.01. Past-year prevalence estimates for hazardous substance use were generally low among young people in this setting (< 10%) with no significant group differences observed. Being HIV-positive independently predicted lower odds of current substance use, but not hazardous substance use. There was overlap of some risk indicators for current substance use between young people with and without HIV including male sex, khat use and an experience of multiple negative life events, but risk indicators unique to either group were also identified. Among YLWH, none of the HIV-related factors was significantly associated with current substance use.

CONCLUSIONS

At the Kenyan coast, substance use is a reality among young people. The frequency of use generally appears to be low among YLWH compared to the HIV-uninfected peers. Substance use prevention initiatives targeting young people, regardless of HIV infection status, are warranted in this setting to avert their potential risk for developing substance use disorders, including dependence. The multifaceted intrapersonal and interpersonal factors that place young people at risk of substance use need to be addressed as part of the substance use awareness and prevention initiatives.

Individual's daily behaviour and intergenerational mixing in different social contexts of Kenya

We investigated contact patterns in diverse social contexts in Kenya and the daily behaviours that may play a pivotal role in infection transmission to the most vulnerable leveraging novel data from a 2-day survey on social contacts and time use (TU) from a sample of 1407 individuals (for a total of 2705 person days) from rural, urban formal, and informal settings. We used TU data to build six profiles of daily behaviour based on the main reported activities, i.e., Homestayers (71.1% of person days), Workers (9.3%), Schoolers (7.8%), or locations at increasing distance from home, i.e., Walkers (6.6%), Commuters (4.6%), Travelers (0.6%). In the rural setting, we observed higher daily contact numbers (11.56, SD 0.23) and percentages of intergenerational mixing with older adults (7.5% of contacts reported by those younger than 60 years vs. less than 4% in the urban settings). Overall, intergenerational mixing with older adults was higher for Walkers (7.3% of their reported contacts), Commuters (8.7%), and Homestayers (5.1%) than for Workers (1.5%) or Schoolers (3.6%). These results could be instrumental in defining effective interventions that acknowledge the heterogeneity in social contexts and daily routines, either in Kenya or other demographically and culturally similar sub-Saharan African settings.

Health and demographic surveillance systems in low- and middle-income countries: history, state of the art and future prospects

Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) have been developed in several low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Africa and Asia. This paper reviews their history, state of the art and future potential and highlights substantial areas of contribution by the late Professor Peter Byass.Historically, HDSS appeared in the second half of the twentieth century, responding to a dearth of accurate population data in poorly resourced settings to contextualise the study of interventions to improve health and well-being. The progress of the development of this network is described starting with Pholela, and progressing through Gwembe, Balabgarh, Niakhar, Matlab, Navrongo, Agincourt, Farafenni, and Butajira, and the emergence of the INDEPTH Network in the early 1990'sThe paper describes the HDSS methodology, data, strengths, and limitations. The strengths are particularly their temporal coverage, detail, dense linkage, and the fact that they exist in chronically under-documented populations in LMICs where HDSS sites operate. The main limitations are generalisability to a national population and a potential Hawthorne effect, whereby the project itself may have changed characteristics of the population.The future will include advances in HDSS data harmonisation, accessibility, and protection. Key applications of the data are to validate and assess bias in other datasets. A strong collaboration between a national HDSS network and the national statistics office is modelled in South Africa and Sierra Leone, and it is possible that other low- to middle-income countries will see the benefit and take this approach.

Characterizing the Countrywide Epidemic Spread of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus in Kenya between 2009 and 2018

The spatiotemporal patterns of spread of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses on a countrywide scale are unclear in many tropical/subtropical regions mainly because spatiotemporally representative sequence data are lacking. We isolated, sequenced, and analyzed 383 A(H1N1)pdm09 viral genomes from hospitalized patients between 2009 and 2018 from seven locations across Kenya. Using these genomes and contemporaneously sampled global sequences, we characterized the spread of the virus in Kenya over several seasons using phylodynamic methods. The transmission dynamics of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in Kenya were characterized by (i) multiple virus introductions into Kenya over the study period, although only a few of those introductions instigated local seasonal epidemics that then established local transmission clusters, (ii) persistence of transmission clusters over several epidemic seasons across the country, (iii) seasonal fluctuations in effective reproduction number (Re) associated with lower number of infections and seasonal fluctuations in relative genetic diversity after an initial rapid increase during the early pandemic phase, which broadly corresponded to epidemic peaks in the northern and southern hemispheres, (iv) high virus genetic diversity with greater frequency of seasonal fluctuations in 2009-2011 and 2018 and low virus genetic diversity with relatively weaker seasonal fluctuations in 2012-2017, and (v) virus spread across Kenya. Considerable influenza virus diversity circulated within Kenya, including persistent viral lineages that were unique to the country, which may have been capable of dissemination to other continents through a globally migrating virus population. Further knowledge of the viral lineages that circulate within understudied low-to-middle-income tropical and subtropical regions is required to understand the full diversity and global ecology of influenza viruses in humans and to inform vaccination strategies within these regions.

Pregnancy Surveillance Methods within Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems

Background: Pregnancy identification and follow-up surveillance can enhance the reporting of pregnancy outcomes, including stillbirths and perinatal and early postnatal mortality. This paper reviews pregnancy surveillance methods used in Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) in low- and middle-income countries.

Methods: We searched articles containing information about pregnancy identification methods used in HDSSs published between January 2002 and October 2019 using PubMed and Google Scholar. A total of 37 articles were included through literature review and 22 additional articles were identified via manual search of references. We reviewed the gray literature, including websites, online reports, data collection instruments, and HDSS protocols from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Study (CHAMPS) Network and the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health (INDEPTH). In total, we reviewed information from 52 HDSSs described in 67 sources.

Results: Substantial variability exists in pregnancy surveillance approaches across the 52 HDSSs, and surveillance methods are not always clearly documented. 42% of HDSSs applied restrictions based on residency duration to identify who should be included in surveillance. Most commonly, eligible individuals resided in the demographic surveillance area (DSA) for at least three months. 44% of the HDSSs restricted eligibility for pregnancy surveillance based on a woman’s age, with most only monitoring women 15-49 years. 10% had eligibility criteria based on marital status, while 11% explicitly included unmarried women in pregnancy surveillance. 38% allowed proxy respondents to answer questions about a woman’s pregnancy status in her absence. 20% of HDSSs supplemented pregnancy surveillance with investigations by community health workers or key informants and by linking HDSS data with data from antenatal clinics.

Conclusions: Methodological guidelines for conducting pregnancy surveillance should be clearly documented and meticulously implemented, as they can have implications for data quality and accurately informing maternal and child health programs.

The ethical implications of verbal autopsy: responding to emotional and moral distress

Background

Verbal autopsy is a pragmatic approach for generating cause-of-death data in contexts without well-functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems. It has primarily been conducted in health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) in Africa and Asia. Although significant resources have been invested to develop the technical aspects of verbal autopsy, ethical issues have received little attention. We explored the benefits and burdens of verbal autopsy in HDSS settings and identified potential strategies to respond to the ethical issues identified.

Methods

This research was based on a case study approach centred on two contrasting HDSS in Kenya and followed the Mapping-Framing-Shaping Framework for empirical bioethics research. Data were collected through individual interviews, focus group discussions, document reviews and non-participant observations. 115 participants were involved, including 86 community members (HDSS residents and community representatives), and 29 research staff (HDSS managers, researchers, census field workers and verbal autopsy interviewers).

Results

The use of verbal autopsy data for research and public health was described as the most common potential benefit of verbal autopsy in HDSS. Community members mentioned the potential uses of verbal autopsy data in addressing immediate public health problems for the local population while research staff emphasized the benefits of verbal autopsy to research and the wider public. The most prominent burden associated with the verbal autopsy was emotional distress for verbal autopsy interviewers and respondents. Moral events linked to the interview, such as being unsure of the right thing to do (moral uncertainty) or knowing the right thing to do and being constrained from acting (moral constraint), emerged as key causes of emotional distress for verbal autopsy interviewers.

Conclusions

The collection of cause-of-death data through verbal autopsy in HDSS settings presents important ethical and emotional challenges for verbal autopsy interviewers and respondents. These challenges include emotional distress for respondents and moral distress for interviewers. This empirical ethics study provides detailed accounts of the distress caused by verbal autopsy and highlights ethical tensions between potential population benefits and risks to individuals. It includes recommendations for policy and practice to address emotional and moral distress in verbal autopsy.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12910-021-00683-7.