Bayesian Estimation of Past Population Dynamics in BEAST 1.10 Using the Skygrid Coalescent Model

Unique phenomenon of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in China: co-circulation of Clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 and H5N6 results in diversity of H5 Virus

Recently, Clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 virus has been widely prevalent globally. Although no outbreaks of Avian Influenza have occurred in poultry in China recently, Clade 2.3.4.4b H5 virus can still be isolated from wild birds, live poultry markets and environment, indicating the ongoing co-circulation of H5N1 and H5N6 viruses. In this study, phylogenetic analysis of global Clade 2.3.4.4b viruses and 20 laboratory-isolated H5 strains revealed that Chinese H5N1 and H5N6 viruses since 2021 cluster into two distinct groups, G-I and G-II. Bayesian phylodynamic analysis reveals that G-I H5N6 virus has become an endemic virus in China. In contrast, G-II H5N1 virus, with South China as its main epicentre, has been disseminated in China and its surrounding countries, with its transmission more reliant on the connections of wild birds and waterfowl. Reassortment analysis indicates that since 2023, Clade 2.3.4.4b H5 viruses isolated in China have formed seven genotypes. The genome of H5 viruses has undergone changes compared to those previously prevalent in China. Animal experiments have shown that prevalent H5 viruses exhibit significant lethality in chickens. Additionally, certain H5 viruses have shown the capability of systemic replication in mice. It is noted that H5N6 viruses with HA genes derived from H5N1 viruses demonstrate stronger virulence and pathogenicity in chickens and mice compared to G-I H5N6 viruses. Our study indicates that the co-circulation of H5N1 and H5N6 viruses in China has increased the diversity of H5 viruses, making continuous surveillance of H5 viruses essential.

Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US

Due to its climatic variability, complex mobility networks and geographic expanse, the United States represents a compelling setting to explore the transmission processes that lead to heterogeneous yearly seasonal influenza epidemics. By analyzing genomic and epidemiological data collected in the US from 2014 to 2023, we show that epidemics consisted of multiple co-circulating transmission lineages that could emerge from all regions and often rapidly expanded. Lineage spread was characterized by strong spatiotemporal hierarchies and lineage size correlated with timing of establishment in the US. Mechanistic epidemic simulations, supported by phylogeographic analyses, suggest that competition between lineages on a network of human mobility consistent with commuting flows drove lineage dynamics. Our results suggest that the processes that disseminate viruses nationwide are highly structured, but variability in the short-term processes that determine the locations, timing, and explosiveness of initial epidemic sparks limits predictability of regional and national epidemics.

Large-Scale Genomic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 Emergence, United States

The COVID-19 pandemic has been marked by continuous emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants. Questions remain about the mechanisms with which those variants establish themselves in new geographic areas. We performed a discrete phylogeographic analysis on 18,529 sequences of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 sublineage sampled during February-June 2022 to elucidate emergence of that sublineage in different regions of the United States. The earliest BA.5 sublineage introductions came from Africa, the putative variant origin, but most were from Europe, matching a high volume of air travelers. In addition, we discovered extensive domestic transmission between different US regions, driven by population size and cross-country transmission between key hotspots. We found most BA.5 virus transmission within the United States occurred between 3 regions in the southwestern, southeastern, and northeastern parts of the country. Our results form a framework for analyzing emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants and other pathogens in the United States.

Genomic Epidemiology for Estimating Pathogen Burden in a Population

The role of genomics in outbreak response and pathogen surveillance has expanded and ushered in the age of pathogen intelligence. Genomic surveillance enables detection and monitoring of novel pathogens; case clusters; and markers of virulence, antimicrobial resistance, and immune escape. We can leverage pathogen genomic diversity to estimate total pathogen burden in populations and environments, which was previously challenging because of unreliable data. Pathogen genomics might allow pathogen burdens to be estimated by sequencing even a small percentage of cases. Deeper genomic epidemiology analyses require multidisciplinary collaboration to ensure accurate and actionable real-time pathogen intelligence.

Climate, inter-serotype competition and arboviral interactions shape dengue dynamics in Thailand

The incidence and global spread of dengue are reaching alarming levels. Thailand represents a critical disease epicenter and demands an understanding of the environmental and evolutionary pressures that sustain DENV transmission. Unlike most affected countries experiencing recurrent outbreaks of the same serotype or replacement of one serotype for another, Thailand is an ecological niche for all four serotypes. Favorable climate and mosquito vector availability maintain a landscape defined by stable, endemic circulation of genotypes, with minimal genetic variation attributed to sporadic, external introductions. This equilibrium is achieved through inter-serotype competition, characterized by reproductive fitness levels that maintain infections (Re>1) and elevated evolutionary rates ( ~ 10-4), which steadily increase the genetic diversity of each serotype. This conclusion is reinforced by the identification of numerous positively selected mutations, skewed in the direction of non-structural proteins conferring replication and transmission advantages versus those present in structural proteins evading neutralizing antibodies. Precipitous drops in DENV cases following outbreaks of Chikungunya suggest that interactions with other arboviruses also impact DENV dynamics through vector competition, replication inhibition or partial cross-protection. Thailand is a major exporter of DENV cases and novel emergent lineages gaining fitness here are likely to spread internationally. Surveillance is therefore paramount to monitor diversification trends and take measures to avoid the establishment of similar sustained, local transmission in other countries.

Emergence, persistence, and positive selection of yellow fever virus in Colombia

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is an arbovirus that causes acute febrile illness (AFI), in tropical areas of South America and Africa. Through a 2020-2023 AFI study in Leticia, Colombia, leveraging metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS), we identified and isolated YFV (LET1450). Phylogenetic analysis showed this strain belongs to South American genotype II (SamII), linked to Peruvian and Bolivian sequences emerging around 1989. Phylodynamic analysis indicates these strains, with a unique genetic makeup, could have reduced vaccine susceptibility, and due to positive Darwinian selection have an enhanced adaptive capacity. Antigenic analysis identified additional immune-evasive traits and this strain's potential for wider Latin American spread. Phylogeographic reconstruction demonstrated the persistence of YFV in Colombia is not due to repeated external introductions, but results from continuous, cryptic internal circulation. This study highlights the crucial role of mNGS in monitoring emerging strains and underscores the need for genomic surveillance of YFV and other arboviral infections.

Molecular Epidemic Characteristics and Genetic Evolution of Porcine Circovirus Type 2 in Henan, China

The widespread distribution and genetic diversity of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) seriously threatens the swine industry worldwide. This study investigates the molecular epidemiology of PCV2 in Henan Province (2020-2023) through PCR screening (385 samples) and whole-genome sequencing (34 strains). The overall detection rate was 71.17% (274/385), with annual rates of 81.16% (112/138) in 2020, 72.41% (84/116) in 2021, 62.50% (55/88) in 2022, and 53.49% (23/43) in 2023, indicating a declining trend. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the dominance of the PCV2d genotype, comprising 82.4% (28/34) of sequenced strains. Evolutionary analysis identified strong negative selection pressure on ORF2, with an elevated substitution rate of 1.098 × 10-3 ssy. These findings provide critical insights into the predominance and adaptive evolution of PCV2d, and significantly improve our understanding of its genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics.

Maternal genetic architecture of Guizhou's Hmong-Mien populations via whole mitogenome

The Hmong-Mien (HM) language family, majorly distributed across southern China and Southeast Asia, has remained underexplored in population genetics, particularly concerning whole mitogenome studies. In this study, we sequenced the whole mitogenomes of 261 individuals from Guizhou Hmong-Mien-speaking populations (HM-G), comprising Miao, Yao, and She individuals. The haplogroup distribution was dominated by southern East Asian haplogroups (B, M7, and F). The neutrality test revealed significantly negative values, and mismatch distribution analyses showed a pronounced unimodal distribution, indicating high genetic diversity and recent population expansion in populations. For a comprehensive understanding of the matrilineal genetic background of the HM-speaking population, we merged whole mitogenome data from 83 populations worldwide. Our findings showed that the HM-G exhibited relatively close genetic distances to HM- and Tai-Kadai-speaking populations from East and Southeast Asia. These results provide crucial insights into the genetic structure and evolutionary history of HM-G.

Bovine coronavirus presence in domestic bovine and antelopes sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from Namibia

BACKGROUND

Bovine coronavirus (BoCV) causes significant economic losses to cattle farming due to mortality in calves, reduced growth performances and milk production in feedlots and dairy cattle. Worldwide distribution of BoCV has been demonstrated, although knowledge of its epidemiology in Africa, especially in the sub-Saharan region, is limited.

RESULTS

In the present study, a total of 208 swab samples of wild ruminants and 435 bovines from different regions of Namibia were obtained and tested by a BoCV-specific qRT-PCR. Twenty-six bovine samples tested positive [26/435 (5.98%; 95CI: 3.94-8.64%)] while, among the wild ruminants, only Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) were shown to be positive [13/52 (25.00%; 95CI: 14.03-38.95%)] of which 8 showed clinical signs. Analysis of partial nucleoprotein and spike protein gene sequences and comparison with international reference sequences demonstrated the existence of a unique Namibian clade, resulting from a single introduction event around 2010 followed by local evolution. Although the introduction source remains unknown, contact between bovine and wild animals appears likely.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study represents the first report of BoCV circulation in southern Africa, which showed a relatively high frequency and the ability of persisting and evolving locally in the absence of further foreign introductions. The implications for disease spread among domestic bovines and the potential impact on wildlife should encourage broader investigations on BoCV involving other African countries. Moreover, the Greater Kudu's susceptibility to BoCV infection was also proven, further highlighting the host plasticity of this virus.

Association of poultry vaccination with interspecies transmission and molecular evolution of H5 subtype avian influenza virus

The effectiveness of poultry vaccination in preventing the transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (AIVs) has been debated, and its impact on wild birds remains uncertain. Here, we reconstruct the movements of H5 subtype AIV lineages among vaccinated poultry, unvaccinated poultry, and wild birds, worldwide, from 1996 to 2023. We find that there is a time lag in viral transmission among different host populations and that movements from wild birds to unvaccinated poultry were more frequent than those from wild birds to vaccinated poultry. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the HA (hemagglutinin) gene of the AIV lineage that circulated predominately in Chinese poultry experienced greater nonsynonymous divergence and adaptive fixation than other lineages. Our results indicate that the epidemiological, ecological, and evolutionary consequences of widespread AIV vaccination in poultry may be linked in complex ways and that much work is needed to better understand how such interventions may affect AIV transmission to, within, and from wild birds.

Introduction of a Divergent Canine Parvovirus Type 2b Strain with a Dog in Sicily, Southern Italy, Through the Mediterranean Sea Route to Europe

Despite over four decades since its emergence, canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2) remains a relevant disease for dogs. Few studies, primarily only recent ones based on phylodynamic and phylogeography approaches, have highlighted the impact of rapid and long-distance transport of dogs on the CPV-2 spreading dynamics. The present study reports the genomic characterization of a CPV-2 strain detected in a dog introduced into Italy from the coasts of North Africa through the Mediterranean Sea route to Europe. The nearly complete CPV-2 sequence was obtained and analyzed. The viral isolate was characterized as a CPV-2b variant, showing genetic signatures distinct from those of CPV-2 strains detected to date in Europe. Phylodynamic and phylogeographic approaches revealed a close correlation with CPV-2 strains recently reported in the Middle East (Turkey and Egypt), which likely originated or co-evolved from Asian ones. It is at least suggestive that the inferred spreading pattern overlaps with the routes often followed by migrants travelling from Asia and Middle East to Europe, passing through Africa. This evidence for the introduction of CPV-2 via the Mediterranean Sea route to Europe highlights the relevant role of the dog movements in the global spread of emerging or re-emerging viral pathogens.

The origin and transmission of HIV-1 CRF80_0107 among two major first-tier cities in China

BACKGROUND

CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC are the two most prevalent HIV-1 genotypes in China, and the co-circulation of these two genotypes has led to the continuous generation of CRF_0107 viruses in recent years. However, little is known about the origin and spread of CRF_0107 viruses thus far. This study focused on HIV-1 CRF80_0107, which we previously identified among the MSM population in Beijing and Hebei Province, to explore the demographic distribution, transmission links, and temporal-spatial evolutionary features of the HIV-1 CRF80_0107 strain in China.

METHODS

With the partial pol region fragment of the HIV-1 CRF80_0107 subtype standard sequence as a reference, BLAST was used to search for highly similar sequences in the Los Alamos HIV Sequence Database, followed by preliminary subtype identification via COMET. Further phylogenetic and recombination breakpoint analyses were conducted to verify the subtypes and recombination patterns. We also performed a distance-based molecular network analysis to identify potential relationships among different HIV-positive individuals. In addition, spatiotemporal evolutionary dynamics analysis of the candidate CRF80_0107 sequences was performed via a Bayesian approach.

RESULTS

A total of 36 partial pol gene sequences of HIV-1 CRF80_0107 were identified from 2009 to 2018 from 5 provinces in China. Phylogenetic and spatial-temporal dynamics analyses indicated that CRF80_0107 likely originated in Beijing around 2009 and spread to Guangdong Province around 2012. Population dynamics analysis revealed that CRF80_0107 experienced a significant increase in population size from 2009 to 2011 and then stabilized. The study also found that the number of cases in Guangdong Province was second only to that in Beijing and formed 2 relatively independent transmission clusters in the MSM population in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province.

CONCLUSIONS

The HIV-1 CRF80_0107 strain has spread to cities beyond its origin, particularly the MSM population in Shenzhen city, Guangdong Province, which is an area with a high incidence of HIV. This highlights the importance of continuous monitoring for the emergence and dynamic changes of novel HIV-1 recombinant viruses and the necessity of implementing effective preventive measures targeting specific populations in particular regions.

Phylodynamic reconstruction of major chicken infectious anemia virus clades epidemiology, dispersal, and evolution

Introduction

Immunosuppressive diseases, such as chicken infectious anemia virus (CIAV), pose a major threat to livestock farming due to reduced disease resistance, poor vaccine response, and overall poor productivity. CIAV, recognized globally for decades, shows a significant genetic diversity, but its implications remain underexplored.

Methods

This study analyzed over 1,000 VP1 sequences and examined CIAV's epidemiology, evolution, and spread with various phylodynamic and phylogeographic approaches.

Results

Findings suggest that CIAV likely originated in Japan in the early 20th century, followed by worldwide diversification in two main clades. Both clades exhibited no significant competition and similar global patterns, characterized by a progressive increase until about 2000, when a transient decline was observed for some years, potentially reflecting the increasing use of vaccines. Accordingly, although significant selective pressures were shaping viral evolution, comparable strengths were estimated in the two viral populations. The phylogeographic analysis identified several connections involving also distantly related regions, and more generally, multiple introduction events occurred in several countries and were followed by local evolution, indicative of unconstrained viral circulation.

Discussion

Overall, the study highlights the ongoing circulation and evolution of different CIAV variants worldwide, where biosecurity measures and vaccination appear insufficient to prevent viral presence and dispersal.

Epidemiology and biological characteristics of influenza A (H4N6) viruses from wild birds

During the active surveillance, we isolated nine H4N6 subtype influenza A viruses from wild birds in China. To reveal the epidemiology and biology characteristics of H4 subtype influenza A virus from wild birds, we investigated H4 subtype viruses available in the public source, and found that the H4 viruses have been detected in at least 37 countries to date, and more than 73.6% of the viruses were from wild Anseriformes. Bayesian phylogeographic analysis showed that Mongolia worked as the important transmission centre for Eurasian lineage H4 viruses spreading. Phylogenetic analysis of HA genes indicated that global H4 influenza A viruses were divided into Eurasian and North American lineage, our nine H4N6 isolates fell into the Eurasian lineage. Recombination analysis suggested that nine H4N6 isolates underwent complex gene recombination with various subtypes of influenza A viruses and formed two genotypes. Notably, nine H4N6 isolates acquired mammalian virulence-increasing residues. Two representative H4N6 viruses possessed dual receptor binding specificity, they could efficiently replicate in MDCK and 293 T cells in vitro infection, also could cross the species barrier to infect mice directly without prior adaption in vivo experiments. These findings emphasize the public health issues represented by H4 viruses, and highlight the need to strengthen the active surveillance of H4 viruses from wild birds.

Characterization of Conserved Evolution in H7N9 Avian Influenza Virus Prior Mass Vaccination

Vaccination is crucial for the prevention and mitigation of avian influenza infections in China. The inactivated H7N9 vaccine, when administered to poultry, significantly lowers the risk of infection among both poultry and humans, while also markedly decreasing the prevalence of H7N9 detections. Highly pathogenic (HP) H7N9 viruses occasionally appear, whereas their low pathogenicity (LP) counterparts have been scarcely detected since 2018. However, these contributing factors remain poorly understood. We conducted an exploratory investigation of the mechanics via the application of comprehensive bioinformatic approaches. We delineated the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) H7N9 lineage into 5 clades (YRD-A to E). Our findings highlight the emergence and peak occurrence of the LP H7N9-containing YRD-E clade during the 5th epidemic wave in China's primary poultry farming areas. A more effective control of LP H7N9 through vaccination was observed compared to that of its HP H7N9 counterpart. YRD-E exhibited a tardy evolutionary trajectory, denoted by the conservation of its genetic and antigenic variation. Our analysis of YRD-E revealed only minimal amino acid substitutions along its phylogenetic tree and a few selective sweep mutations since 2016. In terms of epidemic fitness, the YRD-E was measured to be lower than that of the HP variants. Collectively, these findings underscore the conserved evolutionary patterns distinguishing the YRD-E. Given the conservation presented in its evolutionary patterns, the YRD-E LP H7N9 is hypothesized to be associated with a reduction following the mass vaccination in a relatively short period owing to its lower probability of antigenic variation that might affect vaccine efficiency.

An updated phylogeography and population dynamics of porcine circovirus 2 genotypes: are they reaching an equilibrium?

Introduction

Porcine circovirus 2 (PCV2) emerged more than three decades ago as one of the most impactful pathogens in the swine industry. Despite being a DNA virus, one of the hallmarks of PCV2 is its high evolutionary rate, which has led to the emergence of different genotypes, each exhibiting varying degrees of evolutionary success. Current knowledge suggests the occurrence of three main waves of genotype dominance, alternating over time (i.e., PCV2a, PCV2b, and PCV2d), alongside less prevalent genotypes. However, although PCV2d is currently the most common genotype nowadays, the others continue being circulating in the pig population.

Methods

The present study reconsidered the epidemiological and evolutionary patterns of PCV2 genotypes using phylodynamic analyses, benefiting from an almost 10-fold increase in ORF2 sequence availability compared to previous studies. Additionally, a phylogeographic analysis was performed to investigate viral dispersal patterns and frequency, and the selective pressures acting on the capsid protein were estimated and compared among genotypes.

Results

While successive emergence of major genotypes was confirmed, this study extends previous findings by revealing subsequent prevalence fluctuations of PCV2a and PCV2b after their initial decline. This evolutionary process may represent an example of balancing selection, specifically negative frequency-dependent selection, where a genotype fitness diminishes as it becomes more common, and vice versa. Variations in genotype- or clade-specific immunity-affected by the local prevalence of viral groups-combined with the periodic introduction of strains that have independently evolved in different regions, may have led to fluctuations in the population dynamics of major genotypes over time. These fluctuations were associated with ongoing evolution and variations in the capsid amino acid profile.

Discussion

These findings have profound implications for future control strategies. Although PCV2d remains the most prevalent and widespread genotype, other genotypes should not be neglected. Control strategies should thus target the entire PCV2 population, with a focus on fostering broader and more cross-protective immunity.

Farmed fur animals harbour viruses with zoonotic spillover potential

Animals such as raccoon dogs, mink and muskrats are farmed for fur and are sometimes used as food or medicinal products1,2, yet they are also potential reservoirs of emerging pathogens3. Here we performed single-sample metatranscriptomic sequencing of internal tissues from 461 individual fur animals that were found dead due to disease. We characterized 125 virus species, including 36 that were novel and 39 at potentially high risk of cross-species transmission, including zoonotic spillover. Notably, we identified seven species of coronaviruses, expanding their known host range, and documented the cross-species transmission of a novel canine respiratory coronavirus to raccoon dogs and of bat HKU5-like coronaviruses to mink, present at a high abundance in lung tissues. Three subtypes of influenza A virus-H1N2, H5N6 and H6N2-were detected in the lungs of guinea pig, mink and muskrat, respectively. Multiple known zoonotic viruses, such as Japanese encephalitis virus and mammalian orthoreovirus4,5, were detected in guinea pigs. Raccoon dogs and mink carried the highest number of potentially high-risk viruses, while viruses from the Coronaviridae, Paramyxoviridae and Sedoreoviridae families commonly infected multiple hosts. These data also reveal potential virus transmission between farmed animals and wild animals, and from humans to farmed animals, indicating that fur farming represents an important transmission hub for viral zoonoses.

A new lineage nomenclature to aid genomic surveillance of dengue virus

Dengue virus (DENV) is currently causing epidemics of unprecedented scope in endemic settings and expanding to new geographical areas. It is therefore critical to track this virus using genomic surveillance. However, the complex patterns of viral genomic diversity make it challenging to use the existing genotype classification system. Here, we propose adding 2 sub-genotypic levels of virus classification, named major and minor lineages. These lineages have high thresholds for phylogenetic distance and clade size, rendering them stable between phylogenetic studies. We present assignment tools to show that the proposed lineages are useful for regional, national, and subnational discussions of relevant DENV diversity. Moreover, the proposed lineages are robust to classification using partial genome sequences. We provide a standardized neutral descriptor of DENV diversity with which we can identify and track lineages of potential epidemiological and/or clinical importance. Information about our lineage system, including methods to assign lineages to sequence data and propose new lineages, can be found at: dengue-lineages.org.

Intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity between 1994 and 2018 in southern Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study

There is limited data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolutionary trends in African populations. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a 24-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994-2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011-2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was evaluated using the Shannon diversity index, and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Demographic history of HIV was inferred using a coalescent-based Bayesian Skygrid model. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including by migration status. 9931 HIV sequences were available from 4999 PLHIV, including 3060 and 1939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (P < .001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (P < .001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by nearly four-fold from 12.2% in 1995 to 44.8% in 2017. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While intra-subtype p24 genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, intra-subtype gp41 diversity, effective population size, and divergence increased through 2017. Intra- and inter-subtype viral diversity increased across all demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

Commuting-driven competition between transmission chains shapes seasonal influenza virus epidemics in the United States

Despite intensive study, much remains unknown about the dynamics of seasonal influenza virus epidemic establishment and spread in the United States (US) each season. By reconstructing transmission lineages from seasonal influenza virus genomes collected in the US from 2014 to 2023, we show that most epidemics consisted of multiple distinct transmission lineages. Spread of these lineages exhibited strong spatiotemporal hierarchies and lineage size was correlated with timing of lineage establishment in the US. Mechanistic epidemic simulations suggest that mobility-driven competition between lineages determined the extent of individual lineages' geographical spread. Based on phylogeographic analyses and epidemic simulations, lineage-specific movement patterns were dominated by human commuting behavior. These results suggest that given the locations of early-season epidemic sparks, the topology of inter-state human mobility yields repeatable patterns of which influenza viruses will circulate where, but the importance of short-term processes limits predictability of regional and national epidemics.

Ecological Changes Exacerbating the Spread of Invasive Ticks has Driven the Dispersal of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus Throughout Southeast Asia

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) is a tick-borne virus recognized by the World Health Organization as an emerging infectious disease of growing concern. Utilizing phylodynamic and phylogeographic methods, we have reconstructed the origin and transmission patterns of SFTSV lineages and the roles demographic, ecological, and climatic factors have played in shaping its emergence and spread throughout Asia. Environmental changes and fluctuations in tick populations, exacerbated by the widespread use of pesticides, have contributed significantly to its geographic expansion. The increased adaptability of Lineage L2 strains to the Haemaphysalis longicornis vector has facilitated the dispersal of SFTSV through Southeast Asia. Increased surveillance and proactive measures are needed to prevent further spread to Australia, Indonesia, and North America.

The origins of haplotype 58 (H58) Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a serious threat to the clinical management of typhoid fever. AMR in Salmonella Typhi (S. Typhi) is commonly associated with the H58 lineage, a lineage that arose comparatively recently before becoming globally disseminated. To better understand when and how H58 emerged and became dominant, we performed detailed phylogenetic analyses on contemporary genome sequences from S. Typhi isolated in the period spanning the emergence. Our dataset, which contains the earliest described H58 S. Typhi organism, indicates that ancestral H58 organisms were already multi-drug resistant (MDR). These organisms emerged spontaneously in India in 1987 and became radially distributed throughout South Asia and then globally in the ensuing years. These early organisms were associated with a single long branch, possessing mutations associated with increased bile tolerance, suggesting that the first H58 organism was generated during chronic carriage. The subsequent use of fluoroquinolones led to several independent mutations in gyrA. The ability of H58 to acquire and maintain AMR genes continues to pose a threat, as extensively drug-resistant (XDR; MDR plus resistance to ciprofloxacin and third generation cephalosporins) variants, have emerged recently in this lineage. Understanding where and how H58 S. Typhi originated and became successful is key to understand how AMR drives successful lineages of bacterial pathogens. Additionally, these data can inform optimal targeting of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) for reducing the potential for emergence and the impact of new drug-resistant variants. Emphasis should also be placed upon the prospective identification and treatment of chronic carriers to prevent the emergence of new drug resistant variants with the ability to spread efficiently.

D for dominant: porcine circovirus 2d (PCV-2d) prevalence over other genotypes in wild boars and higher viral flows from domestic pigs in Italy

Introduction

Porcine circovirus 2 (PCV-2) is a key pathogen for the swine industry at a global level. Nine genotypes, differing in epidemiology and potentially virulence, emerged over time, with PCV-2a, -2b, and -2d being the most widespread and clinically relevant. Conversely, the distribution of minor genotypes appears geographically and temporally restricted, suggesting lower virulence and different epidemiological drivers. In 2022, PCV-2e, the most genetically and phenotypically divergent genotype, was identified in multiple rural farms in North-eastern Italy. Since rural pigs often have access to outdoor environment, the introduction from wild boars was investigated.

Methods

Through a molecular and spatial approach, this study investigated the epidemiology and genetic diversity of PCV-2 in 122 wild boars across different provinces of North-eastern Italy.

Results

Molecular analysis revealed a high PCV-2 frequency (81.1%, 99/122), and classified the majority of strains as PCV-2d (96.3%, 78/81), with sporadic occurrences of PCV-2a (1.2%, 1/81) and PCV-2b (2.5%, 2/81) genotypes. A viral flow directed primarily from domestic pigs to wild boars was estimated by phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses.

Discussion

These findings attested that the genotype replacement so far described only in the Italian domestic swine sector occurred also in wild boars. and suggested that the current heterogeneity of PCV-2d strains in Italian wild boars likely depends more on different introduction events from the domestic population rather than the presence of independent evolutionary pressures. While this might suggest PCV-2 circulation in wild boars having a marginal impact in the industrial sector, the sharing of PCV-2d strains across distinct wild populations, in absence of a consistent geographical pattern, suggests a complex interplay between domestic and wild pig populations, emphasizing the importance of improved biosecurity measures to mitigate the risk of pathogen transmission.

Tracing the Flight: Investigating the Introduction of Avian Metapneumovirus (aMPV) A and B

Avian metapneumovirus (aMPV) has been identified as an important cause of respiratory and reproductive disease, leading to significant productive losses worldwide. Different subtypes have been found to circulate in different regions, with aMPV-A and B posing a significant burden especially in the Old World, and aMPV-C in North America, albeit with limited exceptions of marginal economic relevance. Recently, both aMPV-A and aMPV-B have been reported in the U.S.; however, the route of introduction has not been investigated. In the present study, the potential importation pathways have been studied through phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses based on a broad collection of partial attachment (G) protein sequences collected worldwide. aMPV-B circulating in the U.S. seems the descendant of Eastern Asian strains, which, in turn, are related to European ones. A likely introduction pathway mediated by wild bird migration through the Beringian crucible, where the East Asian and Pacific American flight paths intersect, appears likely and was previously reported for avian influenza. aMPV-A, on the other hand, showed a Mexican origin, involving strains related to Asian ones. Given the low likelihood of trade or illegal importation, the role of wild birds appears probable also in this case, since the region is covered by different flight paths directed in a North-South direction through America. Since the information on the role of wild birds in aMPV epidemiology is still scarce and scattered, considering the significant practical implications for the poultry industry demonstrated by recent U.S. outbreaks, further surveys on wild birds are encouraged.

Evolutionary dynamics and comparative pathogenicity of clade 2.3.4.4b H5 subtype avian influenza viruses, China, 2021-2022

The recent concurrent emergence of H5N1, H5N6, and H5N8 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) has led to significant avian mortality globally. Since 2020, frequent human-animal interactions have been documented. To gain insight into the novel H5 subtype AIVs (i.e., H5N1, H5N6 and H5N8), we collected 6102 samples from various regions of China between January 2021 and September 2022, and identified 41 H5Nx strains. Comparative analyses on the evolution and biological properties of these isolates were conducted. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the 41 H5Nx strains belonged to clade 2.3.4.4b, with 13 related to H5N1, 19 to H5N6, and 9 to H5N8. Analysis based on global 2.3.4.4b viruses showed that all the viruses described in this study were likely originated from H5N8, exhibiting a heterogeneous evolutionary history between H5N1 and H5N6 during 2015-2022 worldwide. H5N1 showed a higher rate of evolution in 2021-2022 and more sites under positive selection pressure in 2015-2022. The antigenic profiles of the novel H5N1 and H5N6 exhibited notable variations. Further hemagglutination inhibition assay suggested that some A(H5N1) viruses may be antigenically distinct from the circulating H5N6 and H5N8 strains. Mammalian challenge assays demonstrated that the H5N8 virus (21GD001_H5N8) displayed the highest pathogenicity in mice, followed by the H5N1 virus (B1557_H5N1) and then the H5N6 virus (220086_H5N6), suggesting a heterogeneous virulence profile of H5 AIVs in the mammalian hosts. Based on the above results, we speculate that A(H5N1) viruses have a higher risk of emergence in the future. Collectively, these findings unveil a new landscape of different evolutionary history and biological characteristics of novel H5 AIVs in clade 2.3.4.4b, contributing to a better understanding of designing more effective strategies for the prevention and control of novel H5 AIVs.

The role of socio-economic disparities in the relative success and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 variants in New York City in early 2021

Socio-economic disparities were associated with disproportionate viral incidence between neighborhoods of New York City (NYC) during the first wave of SARS-CoV-2. We investigated how these disparities affected the co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variants during the second wave in NYC. We tested for correlation between the prevalence, in late 2020/early 2021, of Alpha, Iota, Iota with E484K mutation (Iota-E484K), and B.1-like genomes and pre-existing immunity (seropositivity) in NYC neighborhoods. In the context of varying seroprevalence we described socio-economic profiles of neighborhoods and performed migration and lineage persistence analyses using a Bayesian phylogeographical framework. Seropositivity was greater in areas with high poverty and a larger proportion of Black and Hispanic or Latino residents. Seropositivity was positively correlated with the proportion of Iota-E484K and Iota genomes, and negatively correlated with the proportion of Alpha and B.1-like genomes. The proportion of persisting Alpha lineages declined over time in locations with high seroprevalence, whereas the proportion of persisting Iota-E484K lineages remained the same in high seroprevalence areas. During the second wave, the geographic variation of standing immunity, due to disproportionate disease burden during the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in NYC, allowed for the immune evasive Iota-E484K variant, but not the more transmissible Alpha variant, to circulate in locations with high pre-existing immunity.

A new lineage nomenclature to aid genomic surveillance of dengue virus

Dengue virus (DENV) is currently causing epidemics of unprecedented scope in endemic settings and expanding to new geographical areas. It is therefore critical to track this virus using genomic surveillance. However, the complex patterns of viral genomic diversity make it challenging to use the existing genotype classification system. Here we propose adding two sub-genotypic levels of virus classification, named major and minor lineages. These lineages have high thresholds for phylogenetic distance and clade size, rendering them stable between phylogenetic studies. We present an assignment tool to show that the proposed lineages are useful for regional, national and sub-national discussions of relevant DENV diversity. Moreover, the proposed lineages are robust to classification using partial genome sequences. We provide a standardized neutral descriptor of DENV diversity with which we can identify and track lineages of potential epidemiological and/or clinical importance. Information about our lineage system, including methods to assign lineages to sequence data and propose new lineages, can be found at: dengue-lineages.org.

Reconstruction of Avian Reovirus History and Dispersal Patterns: A Phylodynamic Study

Avian reovirus (ARV) infection can cause significant losses to the poultry industry. Disease control has traditionally been attempted mainly through vaccination. However, the increase in clinical outbreaks in the last decades demonstrated the poor effectiveness of current vaccination approaches. The present study reconstructs the evolution and molecular epidemiology of different ARV genotypes using a phylodynamic approach, benefiting from a collection of more than one thousand sigma C (σC) sequences sampled over time at a worldwide level. ARVs' origin was estimated to occur several centuries ago, largely predating the first clinical reports. The origins of all genotypes were inferred at least one century ago, and their emergence and rise reflect the intensification of the poultry industry. The introduction of vaccinations had only limited and transitory effects on viral circulation and further expansion was observed, particularly after the 1990s, likely because of the limited immunity and the suboptimal and patchy vaccination application. In parallel, strong selective pressures acted with different strengths and directionalities among genotypes, leading to the emergence of new variants. While preventing the spread of new variants with different phenotypic features would be pivotal, a phylogeographic analysis revealed an intricate network of viral migrations occurring even over long distances and reflecting well-established socio-economic relationships.

Travel surveillance uncovers dengue virus dynamics and introductions in the Caribbean

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans, and cases are continuing to rise globally. In particular, islands in the Caribbean have experienced more frequent outbreaks, and all four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been reported in the region, leading to hyperendemicity and increased rates of severe disease. However, there is significant variability regarding virus surveillance and reporting between islands, making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the epidemiological patterns in the Caribbean. To investigate this, we used travel surveillance and genomic epidemiology to reconstruct outbreak dynamics, DENV serotype turnover, and patterns of spread within the region from 2009-2022. We uncovered two recent DENV-3 introductions from Asia, one of which resulted in a large outbreak in Cuba, which was previously under-reported. We also show that while outbreaks can be synchronized between islands, they are often caused by different serotypes. Our study highlights the importance of surveillance of infected travelers to provide a snapshot of local introductions and transmission in areas with limited local surveillance and suggests that the recent DENV-3 introductions may pose a major public health threat in the region.

Epidemiological Features of Human Norovirus Genotypes before and after COVID-19 Countermeasures in Osaka, Japan

We investigated the molecular epidemiology of human norovirus (HuNoV) in all age groups using samples from April 2019 to March 2023, before and after the COVID-19 countermeasures were implemented. GII.2[P16] and GII.4[P31], the prevalent strains in Japan before COVID-19 countermeasures, remained prevalent during the COVID-19 pandemic, except from April to November 2020; in 2021, the prevalence of GII.2[P16] increased among children. Furthermore, there was an increase in the prevalence of GII.4[P16] after December 2022. Phylogenetic analysis of GII.P31 RdRp showed that some strains detected in 2022 belonged to a different cluster of other strains obtained during the present study period, suggesting that HuNoV strains will evolve differently even if they have the same type of RdRp. An analysis of the amino acid sequence of VP1 showed that some antigenic sites of GII.4[P16] were different from those of GII.4[P31]. The present study showed high infectivity of HuNoV despite the COVID-19 countermeasures and revealed changes in the prevalent genotypes and mutations of each genotype. In the future, we will investigate whether GII.4[P16] becomes more prevalent, providing new insights by comparing the new data with those analyzed in the present study.

Genomic insights into the evolution, pathogenicity, and extensively drug-resistance of emerging pathogens Kluyvera and Phytobacter

Introduction

Kluyvera is a Gram-negative, flagellated, motile bacillus within the Enterobacteriaceae. The case reports of clinical infections shed light on the importance of this organism as an emerging opportunistic pathogen. The genus Phytobacter, which often be misidentified with Kluyvera, is also an important clinically relevant member of the Enterobacteriaceae. However, the identification of Kluyvera and Phytobacter is problematic, and their phylogenetic relationship remains unclear.

Methods

Here, 81 strains of Kluyvera and 16 strains of Phytobacter were collected. A series of comparative genomics approaches were applied to the phylogenetic relationship reconstruction, virulence related genes profiles description, and antibiotic resistance genes prediction.

Results

Using average nucleotide identity (ANI) and in silico DNA-DNA hybridization (isDDH), we offered reliable species designations of 97 strains, in which 40 (41.24%) strains were incorrectly labeled. A new Phytobacter genomospecies-1 were defined. Phytobacter and Kluyvera show great genome plasticity and inclusiveness, which may be related to their diverse ecological niches. An intergenomic distances threshold of 0.15875 was used for taxonomy reassignments at the phylogenomic-group level. Further principal coordinates analysis (PCoA) revealed 11 core genes of Kluyvera (pelX, mdtL, bglC, pcak-1, uhpB, ddpA-2, pdxY, oppD-1, cptA, yidZ, csbX) that could be served as potential identification targets. Meanwhile, the Phytobacter specific virulence genes clbS, csgA-C, fliS, hsiB1_vipA and hsiC1_vipB, were found to differentiate from Kluyvera. We concluded that the evolution rate of Kluyvera was 5.25E-6, approximately three times higher than that of Phytobacter. Additionally, the co-existence of ESBLs and carbapenem resistance genes were present in approximately 40% strains, suggesting the potential development of extensively drug-resistant or even fully drug-resistant strains.

Discussion

This work provided a better understanding of the differences between closely related species Kluyvera and Phytobacter. Their genomes exhibited great genome plasticity and inclusiveness. They not only possess a potential pathogenicity threat, but also a risk of multi-drug resistance. The emerging pathogens Kluyvera and Phytobacter warrant close attention.

The Effect of Global Spread, Epidemiology, and Control Strategies on the Evolution of the GI-19 Lineage of Infectious Bronchitis Virus

The GI-19 lineage of infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) has emerged as one of the most impactful, particularly in the "Old World". Originating in China several decades ago, it has consistently spread and evolved, often forming independent clades in various areas and countries, each with distinct production systems and control strategies. This study leverages this scenario to explore how different environments may influence virus evolution. Through the analysis of the complete S1 sequence, four datasets were identified, comprising strains of monophyletic clades circulating in different continents or countries (e.g., Asia vs. Europe and China vs. Thailand), indicative of single introduction events and independent evolution. The population dynamics and evolutionary rate variation over time, as well as the presence and intensity of selective pressures, were estimated and compared across these datasets. Since the lineage origin (approximately in the mid-20th century), a more persistent and stable viral population was estimated in Asia and China, while in Europe and Thailand, a sharp increase following the introduction (i.e., 2005 and 2007, respectively) of GI-19 was observed, succeeded by a rapid decline. Although a greater number of sites on the S1 subunit were under diversifying selection in the Asian and Chinese datasets, more focused and stronger pressures were evident in both the European (positions 2, 52, 54, 222, and 379 and Thai (i.e., positions 10, 12, 32, 56, 62, 64, 65, 78, 95, 96, 119, 128, 140, 182, 292, 304, 320, and 323) strains, likely reflecting a more intense and uniform application of vaccines in these regions. This evidence, along with the analysis of control strategies implemented in different areas, suggests a strong link between effective, systematic vaccine implementation and infection control. However, while the overall evolutionary rate was estimated at approximately 10-3 to 10-4, a significant inverse correlation was found between viral population size and the rate of viral evolution over time. Therefore, despite the stronger selective pressure imposed by vaccination, effectively constraining the former through adequate control strategies can efficiently prevent viral evolution and the emergence of vaccine-escaping variants.

Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 3 population structure in the era of conjugate vaccines, 2001-2018

Background. Despite use of highly effective conjugate vaccines, invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality and disproportionately affects Indigenous populations. Although included in the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), which was introduced in 2010, serotype 3 continues to cause disease among Indigenous communities in the Southwest USA. In the Navajo Nation, serotype 3 IPD incidence increased among adults (3.8/100 000 in 2001-2009 and 6.2/100 000 in 2011-2019); in children the disease persisted although the rates dropped from 5.8/100 000 to 2.3/100 000.Methods. We analysed the genomic epidemiology of serotype 3 isolates collected from 129 adults and 63 children with pneumococcal carriage (n=61) or IPD (n=131) from 2001 to 2018 of the Navajo Nation. Using whole-genome sequencing data, we determined clade membership and assessed changes in serotype 3 population structure over time.Results. The serotype 3 population structure was characterized by three dominant subpopulations: clade II (n=90, 46.9 %) and clade Iα (n=59, 30.7 %), which fall into Clonal Complex (CC) 180, and a non-CC180 clade (n=43, 22.4 %). The proportion of clade II-associated IPD cases increased significantly from 2001 to 2010 to 2011-2018 among adults (23.1-71.8 %; P<0.001) but not in children (27.3-33.3 %; P=0.84). Over the same period, the proportion of clade II-associated carriage increased; this was statistically significant among children (23.3-52.6 %; P=0.04) but not adults (0-50.0 %, P=0.08).Conclusions. In this setting with persistent serotype 3 IPD and carriage, clade II has increased since 2010. Genomic changes may be contributing to the observed trends in serotype 3 carriage and disease over time.

The origin, dissemination, and molecular networks of HIV-1 CRF65_cpx strain in Hainan Island, China

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 CRF65_cpx strain carries drug-resistant mutations, which raises concerns about its potential for causing virologic failure. The CRF65_cpx ranks as the fourth most prevalent on Hainan Island, China. However, the origin and molecular epidemiology of CRF65_cpx strains in this area remain unclear. This study aims to estimate the spatial origins and dissemination patterns of HIV-1 CRF65_cpx in this specific region.

METHODS

Between 2018 and 2021, a total of 58 pol sequences of the CRF65_cpx were collected from HIV-positive patients on Hainan Island. The available CRF65_cpx pol sequences from public databases were compiled. The HIV-TRACE tool was used to construct transmission networks. The evolutionary history of the introduction and dissemination of HIV-1 CRF65_cpx on Hainan Island were analyzed using phylogenetic analysis and the Bayesian coalescent-based approach.

RESULTS

Among the 58 participants, 89.66% were men who have sex with men (MSM). The median age was 25 years, and 43.10% of the individuals had a college degree or above. The results indicated that 39 (67.24%) sequences were interconnected within a single transmission network. A consistent expansion was evident from 2019 to 2021, with an incremental annual addition of four sequences into the networks. Phylodynamic analyses showed that the CRF65_cpx on Hainan Island originated from Beijing (Bayes factor, BF = 17.4), with transmission among MSM on Hainan Island in 2013.2 (95%HPD: 2012.4, 2019.5), subsequently leading to an outbreak. Haikou was the local center of the CRF65_cpx epidemic. This strain propagated from Haikou to other locations, including Sanya (BF > 1000), Danzhou (BF = 299.3), Chengmai (BF = 27.0) and Tunchang (BF = 16.3). The analyses of the viral migration patterns between age subgroups and risk subgroups revealed that the viral migration directions were from "25-40 years old" to "17-24 years old" (BF = 14.6) and to "over 40 years old" (BF = 17.6), and from MSM to heterosexuals (BF > 1000) on Hainan Island.

CONCLUSION

Our analyses elucidate the transmission dynamics of CRF65_cpx strain on Hainan Island. Haikou is identified as the potential hotspot for CRF65_cpx transmission, with middle-aged MSM identified as the key population. These findings suggest that targeted interventions in hotspots and key populations may be more effective in controlling the HIV epidemic.

Genetic insights of H9N2 avian influenza viruses circulating in Mali and phylogeographic patterns in Northern and Western Africa

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) of the H9N2 subtype have become widespread in Western Africa since their first detection in 2017 in Burkina Faso. However, the genetic characteristics and diffusion patterns of the H9N2 virus remain poorly understood in Western Africa, mainly due to limited surveillance activities. In addition, Mali, a country considered to play an important role in the epidemiology of AIVs in the region, lacks more comprehensive data on the genetic characteristics of these viruses, especially the H9N2 subtype. To better understand the genetic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of H9N2 virus within this region, we carried out a comprehensive genetic characterization of H9N2 viruses collected through active surveillance in live bird markets in Mali between 2021 and 2022. We also performed a continuous phylogeographic analysis to unravel the dispersal history of H9N2 lineages between Northern and Western Africa. The identified Malian H9N2 virus belonged to the G1 lineage, similar to viruses circulating in both Western and Northern Africa, and possessed multiple molecular markers associated with an increased potential for zoonotic transmission and virulence. Notably, some Malian strains carried the R-S-N-R motif at their cleavage site, mainly observed in H9N2 strains in Asia. Our continuous phylogeographic analysis revealed a single and significant long-distance lineage dispersal event of the H9N2 virus to Western Africa, likely to have originated from Morocco in 2015, shaping the westward diffusion of the H9N2 virus. Our study highlights the need for long-term surveillance of H9N2 viruses in poultry populations in Western Africa, which is crucial for a better understanding of virus evolution and effective management against potential zoonotic AIV strain emergence.

Phylodynamic evolution of HIV-1 A6 sub-subtype epidemics in Poland

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) A6 sub-subtype is highly prevalent in Eastern Europe. Over the past decade, the dissemination of the A6 lineage has been expanding in Poland. The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine may further escalate the spread of this sub-subtype. While evolutionary studies using viral sequences have been instrumental in identifying the HIV epidemic patterns, the origins, and dynamics of the A6 sub-subtype in Poland remain to be explored. We analyzed 1185 HIV-1 A6 pol sequences from Poland, along with 8318 publicly available sequences from other countries. For analyses, phylogenetic tree construction, population dynamics inference, Bayesian analysis, and discrete phylogeographic modeling were employed. Of the introduction events to Poland, 69.94% originated from Ukraine, followed by 29.17% from Russia. Most A6 sequences in Poland (53.16%) formed four large clades, with their introductions spanning 1993-2008. Central and Southern Polish regions significantly influenced migration events. Transmissions among men who have sex with men (MSM) emerged as the dominant risk group for virus circulation, representing 72.92% of migration events. Sequences from migrants were found primarily outside the large clades. Past migration from Ukraine has fueled the spread of the A6 sub-subtype and the current influx of war-displaced people maintains the growing national epidemic.

First detection and molecular characterization of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in Namibia, Africa

Introduction

The swine sector in Africa plays an important role in local economies, contributing to poverty alleviation and community subsistence. In addition, intensive farming is progressively becoming more important in the region. Therefore, any disease affecting swine populations can have detrimental effects on local communities. Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) is among the most important infectious diseases affecting swine worldwide, but information on its epidemiology in Africa is extremely limited.

Material and methods

In the present study, 147 healthy butchered pigs, originating from 15 Namibian intensive and rural farms were tested by RT-PCR and the ORF7 genes of positive samples were sequenced for further genetic characterization and phylogenetic analysis. Additionally, 55 warthogs were also evaluated using the same approach.

Results

Overall, 7 out of 147 pigs (4.76%) tested positive, all originating from 3 rural farms (with a within-herd detection frequency higher than 14%) characterized by strong epidemiological links. All industrial pig and warthog samples were negative. Sequence analysis revealed that all strains belonged to the Betaarterivirus suid1 species, previously known as PRRSV type I, and were likely imported from Europe at least 6 years ago, evolving independently thereafter. When and how the first introduction occurred could not be determined due to the absence of other African sequences for comparison.

Discussion

The present work provides the first detection and characterization of PRRSV molecular epidemiology in Namibia. Based on the present findings, the presence of the PPRSV appears marginal and limited to backyard farms. While biosecurity measures applied in industrial farms appear to be effective in preventing viral introduction, PRRSV circulation in rural settings still represents a potential threat, and considering the socio-economical implication of livestock diseases decreasing animal performances in rural areas, active monitoring should be encouraged to promptly act against emerging menaces and guarantee the welfare of local pig populations.

Forty Years of Inferential Methods in the Journals of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution

We are launching a series to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the first issue of Molecular Biology and Evolution. In 2024, we will publish virtual issues containing selected papers published in the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution journals, Molecular Biology and Evolution and Genome Biology and Evolution. Each virtual issue will be accompanied by a perspective that highlights the historic and contemporary contributions of our journals to a specific topic in molecular evolution. This perspective, the first in the series, presents an account of the broad array of methods that have been published in the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution journals, including methods to infer phylogenies, to test hypotheses in a phylogenetic framework, and to infer population genetic processes. We also mention many of the software implementations that make methods tractable for empiricists. In short, the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution community has much to celebrate after four decades of publishing high-quality science including numerous important inferential methods.

Distribution pattern, molecular transmission networks, and phylodynamic of hepatitis C virus in China

In China, few molecular epidemiological data on hepatitis C virus (HCV) are available and all previous studies were limited by small sample sizes or specific population characteristics. Here, we report characterization of the epidemic history and transmission dynamics of HCV strains in China. We included HCV sequences of individuals belonging to three HCV surveillance programs: 1) patients diagnosed with HIV infection at the Beijing HIV laboratory network, most of whom were people who inject drugs and former paid blood donors, 2) men who have sex with men, and 3) the general population. We also used publicly available HCV sequences sampled in China in our study. In total, we obtained 1,603 Ns5b and 865 C/E2 sequences from 1,811 individuals. The most common HCV strains were subtypes 1b (29.1%), 3b (25.5%) and 3a (15.1%). In transmission network analysis, factors independently associated with clustering included the region (OR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.19-0.71), infection subtype (OR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.1-0.52), and sampling period (OR: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.27-0.68). The history of the major HCV subtypes was complex, which coincided with some important sociomedical events in China. Of note, five of eight HCV subtype (1a, 1b, 2a, 3a, and 3b), which constituted 81.8% HCV strains genotyped in our study, showed a tendency towards decline in the effective population size during the past decade until present, which is a good omen for the goal of eliminating HCV by 2030 in China.

Genomic epidemiology reveals the dominance of Hennepin County in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Minnesota from 2020 to 2022

IMPORTANCE

We analyzed over 22,000 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes of patient samples tested at Mayo Clinic Laboratories during a 2-year period in the COVID-19 pandemic, which included Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants of concern to examine the roles and relationships of Minnesota virus transmission. We found that Hennepin County, the most populous county, drove the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 viruses in the state after including the formation of earlier clades including 20A, 20C, and 20G, as well as variants of concern Alpha and Delta. We also found that Hennepin County was the source for most of the county-to-county introductions after an initial predicted introduction with the virus in early 2020 from an international source, while other counties acted as transmission "sinks." In addition, major policies, such as the end of the lockdown period in 2020 or the end of all restrictions in 2021, did not appear to have an impact on virus diversity across individual counties.

Conflicting Evidence between Clinical Perception and Molecular Epidemiology: The Case of Fowl Adenovirus D

Fowl adenoviruses (FAdVs, species FAdV-A/-E) are responsible for several clinical syndromes reported with increasing frequency in poultry farms in the last decades. In the present study, a phylodynamic analysis was performed on a group of FAdV-D Hexon sequences with adequate available metadata. The obtained results demonstrated the long-term circulation of this species, at least several decades before the first identification of the disease. After a period of progressive increase, the viral population showed a high-level circulation from approximately the 1960s to the beginning of the new millennium, mirroring the expansion of intensive poultry production and animal trade. At the same time, strain migration occurred mainly from Europe to other continents, although other among-continent connections were estimated. Thereafter, the viral population declined progressively, likely due to the improved control measures, potentially including the development and application of FAdV vaccines. An increase in the viral evolutionary rate featured this phase. A role of vaccine-induced immunity in shaping viral evolution could thus be hypothesized. Accordingly, several sites of the Hexon, especially those targeted by the host response were proven under a significant pervasive or episodic diversifying selection. The present study results demonstrate the role of intensive poultry production and market globalization in the rise of FAdV. The applied control strategies, on the other hand, were effective in limiting viral circulation and shaping its evolution.

Whole genome sequencing of outbreak strains from 2017 to 2018 reveals an endemic clade of dengue 1 virus in Cameroon

Dengue fever is expanding as a global public health threat including countries within Africa. For the past few decades, Cameroon has experienced sporadic cases of arboviral infections including dengue fever. Here, we conducted genomic analyses to investigate the origin and phylogenetic profile of Cameroon DENV-1 outbreak strains and predict the impact of emerging therapeutics on these strains. Bayesian and maximum-likelihood phylogenetic inference approaches were employed in virus evolutionary analyses. An in silico analysis was performed to assess the divergence in immunotherapeutic and vaccine targets in the new genomes. Six complete DENV-1 genomes were generated from 50 samples that met a clinical definition for DENV infection. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that the strains from the current study belong to a sub-lineage of DENV-1 genotype V and form a monophyletic taxon with a 2012 strain from Gabon. The most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of the Cameroon and Gabon strains was estimated to have existed around 2008. Comparing our sequences to the vaccine strains, 19 and 15 amino acid (aa) substitutions were observed in the immuno-protective prM-E protein segments of the Dengvaxia® and TetraVax-DV-TV003 vaccines, respectively. Epitope mapping revealed mismatches in aa residues at positions E155 and E161 located in the epitope of the human anti-DENV-1 monoclonal antibody HMAb 1F4. The new DENV strains constitute a conserved genomic pool of viruses endemic to the Central African region that needs prospective monitoring to track local viral evolution. Further work is needed to ascertain the performance of emerging therapeutics in DENV strains from the African region.

An emerging clade of Chikungunya West African genotype discovered in real-time during 2023 outbreak in Senegal

Chikungunya (CHIKV) is a re-emerging endemic arbovirus in West Africa. Since July 2023, Senegal and Burkina Faso have been experiencing an ongoing outbreak, with over 300 confirmed cases detected so far in the regions of Kédougou and Tambacounda in Senegal, the largest recorded outbreak yet. CHIKV is typically maintained in a sylvatic cycle in Senegal but its evolution and factors contributing to re-emergence are so far unknown in West Africa, leaving a gap in understanding and responding to recurrent epidemics. We produced, in real-time, the first locally-generated and publicly available CHIKV whole genomes in West Africa, to characterize the genetic diversity of circulating strains, along with phylodynamic analysis to estimate time of emergence and population growth dynamics. A novel strain of the West African genotype, phylogenetically distinct from strains circulating in previous outbreaks, was identified. This suggests a likely new spillover from sylvatic cycles in rural Senegal and potential of seeding larger epidemics in urban settings in Senegal and elsewhere.

Travel surveillance uncovers dengue virus dynamics and introductions in the Caribbean

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans, and cases are continuing to rise globally. In particular, islands in the Caribbean have experienced more frequent outbreaks, and all four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been reported in the region, leading to hyperendemicity and increased rates of severe disease. However, there is significant variability regarding virus surveillance and reporting between islands, making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the epidemiological patterns in the Caribbean. To investigate this, we used travel surveillance and genomic epidemiology to reconstruct outbreak dynamics, DENV serotype turnover, and patterns of spread within the region from 2009-2022. We uncovered two recent DENV-3 introductions from Asia, one of which resulted in a large outbreak in Cuba, which was previously under-reported. We also show that while outbreaks can be synchronized between islands, they are often caused by different serotypes. Our study highlights the importance of surveillance of infected travelers to provide a snapshot of local introductions and transmission in areas with limited local surveillance and suggests that the recent DENV-3 introductions may pose a major public health threat in the region.

The genetic diversity of Nipah virus across spatial scales

Nipah virus (NiV), a highly lethal virus in humans, circulates silently in Pteropus bats throughout South and Southeast Asia. Difficulty in obtaining genomes from bats means we have a poor understanding of NiV diversity, including how many lineages circulate within a roost and the spread of NiV over increasing spatial scales. Here we develop phylogenetic approaches applied to the most comprehensive collection of genomes to date (N=257, 175 from bats, 73 from humans) from six countries over 22 years (1999-2020). In Bangladesh, where most human infections occur, we find evidence of increased spillover risk from one of the two co-circulating sublineages. We divide the four major NiV sublineages into 15 genetic clusters (emerged 20-44 years ago). Within any bat roost, there are an average of 2.4 co-circulating genetic clusters, rising to 5.5 clusters at areas of 1,500-2,000 km2. Using Approximate Bayesian Computation fit to a spatial signature of viral diversity, we estimate that each genetic cluster occupies an average area of 1.3 million km2 (95%CI: 0.6-2.3 million), with 14 clusters in an area of 100,000 km2 (95%CI: 6-24). In the few sites in Bangladesh and Cambodia where genomic surveillance has been concentrated, we estimate that most of the genetic clusters have been identified, but only ~15% of overall NiV diversity has been uncovered. Our findings are consistent with entrenched co-circulation of distinct lineages, even within individual roosts, coupled with slow migration over larger spatial scales.

Genetic diversity and molecular evolution of Seoul virus in Hebei province, China

Seoul virus (SEOV) is a major pathogen which causes hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), and is present all over the world. However, there are currently few long-term systematic studies of SEOV's phylogenetic and evolutionary mechanisms in epidemic areas. Thus, in this study, we used RT-PCR combined with NGS to obtain the genomes of six SEOV viruses from 1993, as well as 56 Hebei province-specific tissue samples from 1999 to 2022. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the SEOV samples could be divided into seven groups and showed geographic clustering. The geographic region may be the main factor affecting the genetic diversity of SEOV. We also found that SEOV was subject to strong overall purifying selection and positive selection at certain sites during evolution. Recombination events and high nucleotide substitution rates were also shown to accelerate SEOV's evolution. Evolutionary feature of the L segment is more representative of complete genome. Our detailed analysis provides a deeper understanding of the genetic diversity and evolutionary drivers of SEOV within its primary epidemic areas. It will be important to further monitor epidemiological trends and drivers of variation to help increase our understanding of the pathogenicity of SEOV infections.

An evolutionary epigenetic clock in plants

Molecular clocks are the basis for dating the divergence between lineages over macroevolutionary timescales (~105 to 108 years). However, classical DNA-based clocks tick too slowly to inform us about the recent past. Here, we demonstrate that stochastic DNA methylation changes at a subset of cytosines in plant genomes display a clocklike behavior. This "epimutation clock" is orders of magnitude faster than DNA-based clocks and enables phylogenetic explorations on a scale of years to centuries. We show experimentally that epimutation clocks recapitulate known topologies and branching times of intraspecies phylogenetic trees in the self-fertilizing plant Arabidopsis thaliana and the clonal seagrass Zostera marina, which represent two major modes of plant reproduction. This discovery will open new possibilities for high-resolution temporal studies of plant biodiversity.

Not Asian Anymore: Reconstruction of the History, Evolution, and Dispersal of the "Asian" Lineage of CPV-2c

Variability has been one of the hallmarks of canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2) since its discovery, and several lineages and antigenic variants have emerged. Among these, a group of viruses commonly called Asian CPV-2c has recently been reported with increasing frequency in different regions. Currently, its global epidemiology and evolution are essentially unknown. The present work deals with this information gap by evaluating, via sequence, phylodynamic, and phylogeographic analyses, all the complete coding sequences of strains classified as Asian CPV-2c based on a combination of amino acid markers and phylogenetic analysis. After its estimated origin around 2008, this lineage circulated undetected in Asia until approximately 2012, when an expansion in viral population size and geographical distribution occurred, involving Africa, Europe, and North America. Asia was predicted to be the main nucleus of viral dispersal, leading to multiple introduction events in other continents/countries, where infection establishment, persistence, and rapid evolution occurred. Although the dog is the main host, other non-canine species were also involved, demonstrating the host plasticity of this lineage. Finally, although most of the strains showed an amino acid motif considered characteristic of this lineage, several exceptions were observed, potentially due to convergent evolution or reversion phenomena.

Hepatitis C virus transmission between eight high-income countries among men who have sex with men: a whole-genome analysis

BACKGROUND

Microelimination of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) among men who have sex with men (MSM) could be complicated by continuous external introductions and the emergence of phylogenetic clusters harbouring clinically significant resistance-associated substitutions (RAS). To investigate international clustering and the prevalence and transmission of RAS, we aimed to analyse whole-genome HCV sequences from MSM with a recently acquired infection who participated in a large, international HCV treatment trial.

METHODS

For this whole-genome analysis, we obtained HCV sequences from 128 MSM who had acquired HCV within the past 12 months and were participating in the REACT trial. The participants from whom sequences were obtained were recruited at 24 sites in eight countries. We inferred maximum-likelihood phylogenies and identified transmission clusters for HCV genotypes separately. We constructed time-scaled phylogenies to estimate cluster introduction dates and used a Bayesian Skygrid approach to estimate the effective population size over the past 50 years. We calculated the prevalence of RAS and the extent of RAS transmission in the study population.

FINDINGS

The majority of recent HCV infections were part of international networks that arose in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Sequences obtained in the same country clustered frequently, and in 36% of subclusters since 2015 we found evidence of international transmission. European MSM were more likely than non-European MSM to be in a cluster (odds ratio 11·9 [95% CI 3·6-43·4], p<0·0001). The effective population size decreased rapidly since around 2015 in Europe. RAS associated with substantially diminished cure rates were infrequently detected and transmission of highly resistant viruses was not observed.

INTERPRETATION

Despite antiviral treatment becoming widely available, international transmission of HCV among MSM has still occurred over the past 8 years, which could complicate microelimination of the virus in this population. RAS-enriched clusters and widespread RAS transmission are currently not a threat to elimination goals. These findings support an international approach for HCV microelimination among MSM.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health and Dr. C.J. Vaillant Fonds.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus (H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4b Introduced by Wild Birds, China, 2021

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b virus has spread globally, causing unprecedented large-scale avian influenza outbreaks since 2020. In 2021, we isolated 17 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses from wild birds in China. To determine virus origin, we genetically analyzed 1,529 clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 viruses reported globally since October 2020 and found that they formed 35 genotypes. The 17 viruses belonged to genotypes G07, which originated from eastern Asia, and G10, which originated from Russia. The viruses were moderately pathogenic in mice but were highly lethal in ducks. The viruses were in the same antigenic cluster as the current vaccine strain (H5-Re14) used in China. In chickens, the H5/H7 trivalent vaccine provided complete protection against clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 virus challenge. Our data indicate that vaccination is an effective strategy for preventing and controlling the globally prevalent clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 virus.