Evidence for positive selection in the capsid protein-coding region of the foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) subjected to experimental passage regimens

Spillover: Mechanisms, Genetic Barriers, and the Role of Reservoirs in Emerging Pathogens

Viral spillover represents the transmission of pathogen viruses from one species to another that can give rise to an outbreak. It is a critical concept that has gained increasing attention, particularly after the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the term is often used inaccurately to describe events that do not meet the true definition of spillover. This review aims to clarify the proper use of the term and provides a detailed analysis of the mechanisms driving zoonotic spillover, with a focus on the genetic and environmental factors that enable viruses to adapt to new hosts. Key topics include viral genetic variability in reservoir species, biological barriers to cross-species transmission, and the factors that influence viral adaptation and spread in novel hosts. The review also examines the role of evolutionary processes such as mutation and epistasis, alongside ecological conditions that facilitate the emergence of new pathogens. Ultimately, it underscores the need for more accurate predictive models and improved surveillance to better anticipate and mitigate future spillover events.

Cell Culture Adaptive Amino Acid Substitutions in FMDV Structural Proteins: A Key Mechanism for Altered Receptor Tropism

The foot-and-mouth disease virus is a highly contagious and economically devastating virus of cloven-hooved animals, including cattle, buffalo, sheep, and goats, causing reduced animal productivity and posing international trade restrictions. For decades, chemically inactivated vaccines have been serving as the most effective strategy for the management of foot-and-mouth disease. Inactivated vaccines are commercially produced in cell culture systems, which require successful propagation and adaptation of field isolates, demanding a high cost and laborious time. Cell culture adaptation is chiefly indebted to amino acid substitutions in surface-exposed capsid proteins, altering the necessity of RGD-dependent receptors to heparan sulfate macromolecules for virus binding. Several amino acid substations in VP1, VP2, and VP3 capsid proteins of FMDV, both at structural and functional levels, have been characterized previously. This literature review combines frequently reported amino acid substitutions in virus capsid proteins, their critical roles in virus adaptation, and functional characterization of the substitutions. Furthermore, this data can facilitate molecular virologists to develop new vaccine strains against the foot-and-mouth disease virus, revolutionizing vaccinology via reverse genetic engineering and synthetic biology.

Evolution of SLiM-mediated hijack functions in intrinsically disordered viral proteins

Viruses and their hosts are involved in an ‘arms race’ where they continually evolve mechanisms to overcome each other. It has long been proposed that intrinsic disorder provides a substrate for the evolution of viral hijack functions and that short linear motifs (SLiMs) are important players in this process. Here, we review evidence in support of this tenet from two model systems: the papillomavirus E7 protein and the adenovirus E1A protein. Phylogenetic reconstructions reveal that SLiMs appear and disappear multiple times across evolution, providing evidence of convergent evolution within individual viral phylogenies. Multiple functionally related SLiMs show strong coevolution signals that persist across long distances in the primary sequence and occur in unrelated viral proteins. Moreover, changes in SLiMs are associated with changes in phenotypic traits such as host range and tropism. Tracking viral evolutionary events reveals that host switch events are associated with the loss of several SLiMs, suggesting that SLiMs are under functional selection and that changes in SLiMs support viral adaptation. Fine-tuning of viral SLiM sequences can improve affinity, allowing them to outcompete host counterparts. However, viral SLiMs are not always competitive by themselves, and tethering of two suboptimal SLiMs by a disordered linker may instead enable viral hijack. Coevolution between the SLiMs and the linker indicates that the evolution of disordered regions may be more constrained than previously thought. In summary, experimental and computational studies support a role for SLiMs and intrinsic disorder in viral hijack functions and in viral adaptive evolution.

Adaptive value of foot-and-mouth disease virus capsid substitutions with opposite effects on particle acid stability

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a picornavirus that exhibits an extremely acid sensitive capsid. This acid lability is directly related to its mechanism of uncoating triggered by acidification inside cellular endosomes. Using a collection of FMDV mutants we have systematically analyzed the relationship between acid stability and the requirement for acidic endosomes using ammonium chloride (NH₄Cl), an inhibitor of endosome acidification. A FMDV mutant carrying two substitutions with opposite effects on acid-stability (VP3 A116V that reduces acid stability, and VP1 N17D that increases acid stability) displayed a rapid shift towards acid lability that resulted in increased resistance to NH₄Cl as well as to concanamicyn A, a different lysosomotropic agent. This resistance could be explained by a higher ability of the mutant populations to produce NH₄Cl-resistant variants, as supported by their tendency to accumulate mutations related to NH₄Cl-resistance that was higher than that of the WT populations. Competition experiments also indicated that the combination of both amino acid substitutions promoted an increase of viral fitness that likely contributed to NH₄Cl resistance. This study provides novel evidences supporting that the combination of mutations in a viral capsid can result in compensatory effects that lead to fitness gain, and facilitate space to an inhibitor of acid-dependent uncoating. Thus, although drug-resistant variants usually exhibit a reduction in viral fitness, our results indicate that compensatory mutations that restore this reduction in fitness can promote emergence of resistance mutants.

Cell culture propagation of foot-and-mouth disease virus: adaptive amino acid substitutions in structural proteins and their functional implications

Foot-and-mouth disease is endemic in livestock in large parts of Africa and Asia, where it is an important driver of food insecurity and a major obstacle to agricultural development and the international trade in animal products. Virtually all commercially available vaccines are inactivated whole-virus vaccines produced in cell culture, but the adaptation of a field isolate of the virus to growth in culture is laborious and time-consuming. This is of particular concern for the development of vaccines to newly emerging virus lineages, where long lead times from virus isolate to vaccine can delay the implementation of effective control programs. High antigen yields in production cells are also necessary to make vaccines affordable for less developed countries in endemic areas. Therefore, a rational approach to cell culture adaptation that combines prior knowledge of common adaptive mutations and reverse genetics techniques is urgently required. This review provides an overview of amino acid exchanges in the viral capsid proteins in the context of adaptation to cell culture.

Differential Shape of Geminivirus Mutant Spectra Across Cultivated and Wild Hosts With Invariant Viral Consensus Sequences

Geminiviruses (family Geminiviridae) possess single-stranded circular DNA genomes that are replicated by cellular polymerases in plant host cell nuclei. In their hosts, geminivirus populations behave as ensembles of mutant and recombinant genomes, known as viral quasispecies. This favors the emergence of new geminiviruses with altered host range, facilitating new or more severe diseases or overcoming resistance traits. In warm and temperate areas several whitefly-transmitted geminiviruses of the genus Begomovirus cause the tomato yellow leaf curl disease (TYLCD) with significant economic consequences. TYLCD is frequently controlled in commercial tomatoes by using the dominant Ty-1 resistance gene. Over a 45 day period we have studied the diversification of three begomoviruses causing TYLCD: tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV), tomato yellow leaf curl Sardinia virus (TYLCSV) and tomato yellow leaf curl Malaga virus (TYLCMaV, a natural recombinant between TYLCV and TYLCSV). Viral quasispecies resulting from inoculation of geminivirus infectious clones were examined in plants of susceptible tomato (ty-1/ty-1), heterozygous resistant tomato (Ty-1/ty-1), common bean, and the wild reservoir Solanum nigrum. Differences in virus fitness across hosts were observed while viral consensus sequences remained invariant. However, the complexity and heterogeneity of the quasispecies were high, especially in common bean and the wild host. Interestingly, the presence or absence of the Ty-1 allele in tomato did not lead to differences in begomovirus mutant spectra. However, the fitness decrease of TYLCSV and TYLCV in tomato at 45 dpi might be related to an increase in CP (Coat protein) mutation frequency. In Solanum nigrum the recombinant TYLCMaV, which showed lower fitness than TYLCSV, at 45 dpi actively explored Rep (Replication associated protein) ORF but not the overlapping C4. Our results underline the importance of begomovirus mutant spectra during infections. This is especially relevant in the wild reservoir of the viruses, which has the potential to maintain highly diverse mutant spectra without modifying their consensus sequences.

Introduction of Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Virus into Freshwater Cultured Rainbow Trout Is Followed by Bursts of Adaptive Evolution

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV), a rhabdovirus infecting teleost fish, has repeatedly crossed the boundary from marine fish species to freshwater cultured rainbow trout. These naturally replicated cross-species transmission events permit the study of general and repeatable evolutionary events occurring in connection with viral emergence in a novel host species. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the adaptive molecular evolution of the VHSV glycoprotein, one of the key virus proteins involved in viral emergence, following emergence from marine species into freshwater cultured rainbow trout. A comprehensive phylogenetic reconstruction of the complete coding region of the VHSV glycoprotein was conducted, and adaptive molecular evolution was investigated using a maximum likelihood approach to compare different codon substitution models allowing for heterogeneous substitution rate ratios among amino acid sites. Evidence of positive selection was detected at six amino acid sites of the VHSV glycoprotein, within the signal peptide, the confirmation-dependent major neutralizing epitope, and the intracellular tail. Evidence of positive selection was found exclusively in rainbow trout-adapted virus isolates, and amino acid combinations found at the six sites under positive selection pressure differentiated rainbow trout- from non-rainbow trout-adapted isolates. Furthermore, four adaptive sites revealed signs of recurring identical changes across phylogenetic groups of rainbow trout-adapted isolates, suggesting that repeated VHSV emergence in freshwater cultured rainbow trout was established through convergent routes of evolution that are associated with immune escape.IMPORTANCE This study is the first to demonstrate that VHSV emergence from marine species into freshwater cultured rainbow trout has been accompanied by bursts of adaptive evolution in the VHSV glycoprotein. Furthermore, repeated detection of the same adaptive amino acid sites across phylogenetic groups of rainbow trout-adapted isolates indicates that adaptation to rainbow trout was established through parallel evolution. In addition, signals of convergent evolution toward the maintenance of genetic variation were detected in the conformation-dependent neutralizing epitope or in close proximity to disulfide bonds involved in the structural conformation of the neutralizing epitope, indicating adaptation to immune response-related genetic variation across freshwater cultured rainbow trout.

Evaluating the within-host fitness effects of mutations fixed during virus adaptation to different ecotypes of a new host

The existence of genetic variation for resistance in host populations is assumed to be essential to the spread of an emerging virus. Models predict that the rate of spread slows down with the increasing frequency and higher diversity of resistance alleles in the host population. We have been using the experimental pathosystem Arabidopsis thaliana-tobacco etch potyvirus (TEV) to explore the interplay between genetic variation in host's susceptibility and virus diversity. We have recently shown that TEV populations evolving in A. thaliana ecotypes that differ in susceptibility to infection gained within-host fitness, virulence and infectivity in a manner compatible with a gene-for-gene model of host-parasite interactions: hard-to-infect ecotypes were infected by generalist viruses, whereas easy-to-infect ecotypes were infected by every virus. We characterized the genomes of the evolved viruses and found cases of host-driven convergent mutations. To gain further insights in the mechanistic basis of this gene-for-gene model, we have generated all viral mutations individually as well as in specific combinations and tested their within-host fitness effects across ecotypes. Most of these mutations were deleterious or neutral in their local ecotype and only a very reduced number had a host-specific beneficial effect. We conclude that most of the mutations fixed during the evolution experiment were so by drift or by selective sweeps along with the selected driver mutation. In addition, we evaluated the ruggedness of the underlying adaptive fitness landscape and found that mutational effects were mostly multiplicative, with few cases of significant epistasis.

The impact of high-order epistasis in the within-host fitness of a positive-sense plant RNA virus

RNA viruses are the main source of emerging infectious diseases because of the evolutionary potential bestowed by their fast replication, large population sizes and high mutation and recombination rates. However, an equally important property, which is usually neglected, is the topography of the fitness landscape. How many fitness maxima exist and how well they are connected is especially interesting, as this determines the number of accessible evolutionary pathways. To address this question, we have reconstructed a region of the fitness landscape of tobacco etch potyvirus constituted by mutations observed during the experimental adaptation of the virus to the novel host Arabidopsis thaliana. Fitness was measured for many genotypes and showed the existence of multiple peaks and holes in the landscape. We found prevailing epistatic effects between mutations, with cases of reciprocal sign epistasis being common among pairs of mutations. We also found that high-order epistasis was as important as pairwise epistasis in their contribution to fitness. Therefore, results suggest that the landscape was rugged due to the existence of holes caused by lethal genotypes, that a very limited number of potential neutral paths exist and that it contained a single adaptive peak.

Genome characterisation of two Ljungan virus isolates from wild bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in Sweden

Ljungan virus (LV) (family Picornaviridae, genus Parechovirus) is a suspected zoonotic pathogen with associations to human disease in Sweden. LV is a single-stranded RNA virus with a positive sense genome. There are five published Ljungan virus strains, three isolated from Sweden and two from America, and are classified into four genotypes. A further two strains described here were isolated from wild bank voles (Myodes glareolus) caught in Västmanlands county, Sweden in 1994. These strains were sequenced using next generation pyrosequencing technology on the GS454flx platform. Genetic and phylogenetic analysis of the obtained genomes confirms isolates LV340 and LV342 as two new putative members of genotype 2 along with LV145SL, with 92% and 99% nucleotide identities respectively. Only two codon sites throughout the entire genome were identified as undergoing positive selection, both situated within the VP3 structural region, in or near to major antigenic sites. Whilst these two strains do not constitute new genotypes they provide evidence, though weakly supported, which suggests the evolution of Ljungan viruses to be relatively slow, a characteristic unlike other picornaviruses. Additional genomic sequences are urgently required for Ljungan virus strains, particularly from different locations or hosts, to fully understand the evolutionary and epidemiological properties of this potentially zoonotic virus.

Revisiting the diffusion approximation to estimate evolutionary rates of gene family diversification

Genetic diversity in multigene families is shaped by multiple processes, including gene conversion and point mutation. Because multi-gene families are involved in crucial traits of organisms, quantifying the rates of their genetic diversification is important. With increasing availability of genomic data, there is a growing need for quantitative approaches that integrate the molecular evolution of gene families with their higher-scale function. In this study, we integrate a stochastic simulation framework with population genetics theory, namely the diffusion approximation, to investigate the dynamics of genetic diversification in a gene family. Duplicated genes can diverge and encode new functions as a result of point mutation, and become more similar through gene conversion. To model the evolution of pairwise identity in a multigene family, we first consider all conversion and mutation events in a discrete manner, keeping track of their details and times of occurrence; second we consider only the infinitesimal effect of these processes on pairwise identity accounting for random sampling of genes and positions. The purely stochastic approach is closer to biological reality and is based on many explicit parameters, such as conversion tract length and family size, but is more challenging analytically. The population genetics approach is an approximation accounting implicitly for point mutation and gene conversion, only in terms of per-site average probabilities. Comparison of these two approaches across a range of parameter combinations reveals that they are not entirely equivalent, but that for certain relevant regimes they do match. As an application of this modelling framework, we consider the distribution of nucleotide identity among VSG genes of African trypanosomes, representing the most prominent example of a multi-gene family mediating parasite antigenic variation and within-host immune evasion.

Variable evolutionary routes to host establishment across repeated rabies virus host shifts among bats

Determining the genetic pathways that viruses traverse to establish in new host species is crucial to predict the outcome of cross-species transmission but poorly understood for most host-virus systems. Using sequences encoding 78% of the rabies virus genome, we explored the extent, repeatability and dynamic outcome of evolution associated with multiple host shifts among New World bats. Episodic bursts of positive selection were detected in several viral proteins, including regions associated with host cell interaction and viral replication. Host shifts involved unique sets of substitutions, and few sites exhibited repeated evolution across adaptation to many bat species, suggesting diverse genetic determinants over host range. Combining these results with genetic reconstructions of the demographic histories of individual viral lineages revealed that although rabies viruses shared consistent three-stage processes of emergence in each new bat species, host shifts involving greater numbers of positively selected substitutions had longer delays between cross-species transmission and enzootic viral establishment. Our results point to multiple evolutionary routes to host establishment in a zoonotic RNA virus that may influence the speed of viral emergence.

Genetic diversity and positive selection analysis of classical swine fever virus isolates in south China

Classical swine fever virus (CSFV) causes a highly contagious disease that leads to significant economic losses in the pig industry worldwide. However, there is a paucity of knowledge on the accurate genotyping of CSFV isolates in south China. This study genotyped the E2 gene of 14 CSFV strains isolated during 2008-2010 from domestic pigs in different districts of south China. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that all of the 14 CSFV isolates were clustered into genetic subgroup 1.1. This contrasts with most parts of China, where group 2 isolates are predominant. Furthermore, the positive selection pressures acting on the E(rns) and E2 envelope protein genes of CSFV were assessed and a site-by-site analysis of the dN/dS ratio was performed to identify specific codons that undergo diversification under positive selection. While no significant evidence for positive selection was observed in E(rns), two positively selected sites at amino acid residues 49 and 72 in the E2 encoding region were identified. Our results revealed that a predominance of subgroup 1.1 CSFV isolates is currently circulating in some districts of south China, which appear to be unrelated to the Chinese C-strain vaccine. Moreover, the envelope protein gene, E2, has undergone positive selection in 14 CSFV strains and two positively selected sites have been identified in this study. Understanding the molecular epidemiology and functional importance of these positively selected amino acid positions could help to predict possible changes in virulence, the development of vaccines and disease control.

Competition-colonization dynamics in an RNA virus

During replication, RNA viruses rapidly generate diverse mutant progeny which differ in their ability to kill host cells. We report that the progeny of a single RNA viral genome diversified during hundreds of passages in cell culture and self-organized into two genetically distinct subpopulations that exhibited the competition-colonization dynamics previously recognized in many classical ecological systems. Viral colonizers alone were more efficient in killing cells than competitors in culture. In cells coinfected with both competitors and colonizers, viral interference resulted in reduced cell killing, and competitors replaced colonizers. Mathematical modeling of this coinfection dynamics predicted selection to be density dependent, which was confirmed experimentally. Thus, as is known for other ecological systems, biodiversity and even cell killing of virus populations can be shaped by a tradeoff between competition and colonization. Our results suggest a model for the evolution of virulence in viruses based on internal interactions within mutant spectra of viral quasispecies.

Shifts in the selection-drift balance drive the evolution and epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease virus

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is the causative agent of an acute vesicular disease affecting wild and domesticated animals. Despite the economic burden of the disease and all efforts to eradicate it, FMD outbreaks continue to emerge unexpectedly in developed and developing countries. Correlation of the mutational dynamics of the virus with its epidemiology remains unexplored. Analysis of 103 complete genomes representing the seven serotypes shows the important role that selection plays in the genomic evolution of viral isolates for serotypes. We identified selection and relaxed constraints due to genetic drift through analyses of synonymous sites. Finally, we investigated interactions between mutations that showed coevolving patterns and analyzed, based on protein structures, slightly deleterious and compensatory mutational dynamics. Specifically, we demonstrate that structurally exposed capsid proteins present a greater number of adaptive mutations and relaxed selection than nonstructural proteins. Such events have been magnified during the evolution of the southern African virus types (SATs). These shifts in selection-drift balance have generated the great antigenic and genetic diversity observed for SAT serotypes and that are responsible for epizootics on the continent of Africa. The high number of slightly deleterious and compensatory mutations in SAT serotypes in structural proteins is testament to such balance plasticity. The significant accumulation of these coevolving mutations in African serotypes supports their contribution in generating adaptive immune-escaping mutants and in establishing persistent infections. The reverse of this pattern in nonstructural proteins reveals the neutral fixation of mutations in the more widely spread and commonly studied Euro-Asiatic serotypes.

The evolution of foot-and-mouth disease virus: impacts of recombination and selection

Foot-and-mouth disease virus is an economically important animal virus that exhibits extensive genetic and antigenic heterogeneity. To examine the evolutionary forces that have influenced the population dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease virus, individual genes and the coding genomes for the Eurasian (Asia1, A, C, and O) serotypes were examined for phylogenetic relationships, recombination, genetic diversity and selection. Our analyses demonstrate that paraphyletic relationships among serotypes are not as prevalent as previously proposed and suggest that convergent evolution might be obscuring phylogenetic relationships. We provide evidence that identification of recombinant sequences and recombination breakpoint patterns among and within serotypes are heavily dependent on the level of genetic diversity and convergent characters present in a particular data set as well as the methods used to detect recombination. Here, we also investigate the impact of adaptive positive selection on the capsid proteins and the non-structural genes 2B, 2C, 3A, and 3Cpro to identify genome regions involved in genetic diversity and antigenic variation. Two different categories of positive selection at the amino acid level were examined; conservative (stabilizing) selection that maintains particular phenotypic properties of an amino acid residue and radical (destabilizing), and selection that dramatically alters the phenotype and potentially the functional and/or structural features of the protein. Approximately, 29% of residues in the capsid proteins were under positive selection. Of those, 64% were under the influence of destabilizing selection, 80% were under the influence of stabilizing selection, and 44% had phenotypic properties influenced by both selection types. The majority of residues under selection (74%) were located outside of known antigenic sites; suggestive of additional uncharacterized epitopes and genomic regions involved in antigenic drift.

Frequent and widespread parallel evolution of protein sequences

Understanding the patterns and causes of protein sequence evolution is a major challenge in evolutionary biology. One of the critical unresolved issues is the relative contribution of selection and genetic drift to the fixation of amino acid sequence differences between species. Molecular homoplasy, the independent evolution of the same amino acids at orthologous sites in different taxa, is one potential signature of selection; however, relatively little is known about its prevalence in eukaryotic proteomes. To quantify the extent and type of homoplasy among evolving proteins, we used phylogenetic methodology to analyze 8 genome-scale data matrices from clades of different evolutionary depths that span the eukaryotic tree of life. We found that the frequency of homoplastic amino acid substitutions in eukaryotic proteins was more than 2-fold higher than expected under neutral models of protein evolution. The overwhelming majority of homoplastic substitutions were parallelisms that involved the most frequently exchanged amino acids with similar physicochemical properties and that could be reached by a single-mutational step. We conclude that the role of homoplasy in shaping the protein record is much larger than generally assumed, and we suggest that its high frequency can be explained by both weak positive selection for certain substitutions and purifying selection that constrains substitutions to a small number of functionally equivalent amino acids.

Calibration of multiple poliovirus molecular clocks covering an extended evolutionary range

We have calibrated five different molecular clocks for circulating poliovirus based upon the rates of fixation of total substitutions (K(t)), synonymous substitutions (K(s)), synonymous transitions (A(s)), synonymous transversions (B(s)), and nonsynonymous substitutions (K(a)) into the P1/capsid region (2,643 nucleotides). Rates were determined over a 10-year period by analysis of sequences of 31 wild poliovirus type 1 isolates representing a well-defined phylogeny derived from a common imported ancestor. Similar rates were obtained by linear regression, the maximum likelihood/single-rate dated-tip method, and Bayesian inference. The very rapid K(t) [(1.03 +/- 0.10) x 10(-2) substitutions/site/year] and K(s) [(1.00 +/- 0.08) x 10(-2)] clocks were driven primarily by the A(s) clock [(0.96 +/- 0.09) x 10(-2)], the B(s) clock was approximately 10-fold slower [(0.10 +/- 0.03) x 10(-2)], and the more stochastic K(a) clock was approximately 30-fold slower [(0.03 +/- 0.01) x 10(-2)]. Nonsynonymous substitutions at all P1/capsid sites, including the neutralizing antigenic sites, appeared to be constrained by purifying selection. Simulation of the evolution of third-codon positions suggested that saturation of synonymous transitions would be evident at 10 years and complete at approximately 65 years of independent transmission. Saturation of synonymous transversions was predicted to be minimal at 20 years and incomplete at 100 years. The rapid evolution of the K(t), K(s), and A(s) clocks can be used to estimate the dates of divergence of closely related viruses, whereas the slower B(s) and K(a) clocks may be used to explore deeper evolutionary relationships within and across poliovirus genotypes.

Positive selection in the N-terminal extramembrane domain of lung surfactant protein C (SP-C) in marine mammals

Maximum-likelihood models of codon and amino acid substitution were used to analyze the lung-specific surfactant protein C (SP-C) from terrestrial, semi-aquatic, and diving mammals to identify lineages and amino acid sites under positive selection. Site models used the nonsynonymous/synonymous rate ratio (omega) as an indicator of selection pressure. Mechanistic models used physicochemical distances between amino acid substitutions to specify nonsynonymous substitution rates. Site models strongly identified positive selection at different sites in the polar N-terminal extramembrane domain of SP-C in the three diving lineages: site 2 in the cetaceans (whales and dolphins), sites 7, 9, and 10 in the pinnipeds (seals and sea lions), and sites 2, 9, and 10 in the sirenians (dugongs and manatees). The only semi-aquatic contrast to indicate positive selection at site 10 was that including the polar bear, which had the largest body mass of the semi-aquatic species. Analysis of the biophysical properties that were influential in determining the amino acid substitutions showed that isoelectric point, chemical composition of the side chain, polarity, and hydrophobicity were the crucial determinants. Amino acid substitutions at these sites may lead to stronger binding of the N-terminal domain to the surfactant phospholipid film and to increased adsorption of the protein to the air-liquid interface. Both properties are advantageous for the repeated collapse and reinflation of the lung upon diving and resurfacing and may reflect adaptations to the high hydrostatic pressures experienced during diving.

Detecting the form of selection in the outer membrane protein C of Enterobacter aerogenes strains and Salmonella species

The types of selective pressure operating on the outer membrane protein C (ompC) of Enterobacter aerogenes strains, the causative agent for nosocomial infections, and Salmonella sp., the hazardous pathogen are investigated using the maximum likelihood-based codon substitution models. Although the rate of amino acid replacement to the silent substitution (omega) across the entire codon sites of ompC of E. aerogenes (omega=0.3194) and Salmonella sp. (omega=0.2047) indicate that the gene is subjected to purifying selection (i.e. omega<1), approximately 3.7% of ompC codon sites in E. aerogenes (omega=21.52) are under the influence of positive Darwinian selection (i.e. omega>1). Such contrast in the intensity of selective pressures in both pathogens could be associated with the differential response to the adverse environmental changes. In E. aerogenes, majority of the positively selected sites are located in the hypervariable cell-surface-exposed domains whereas the trans-membrane domains are functionally highly constrained.

Recombination and selection in the evolution of picornaviruses and other Mammalian positive-stranded RNA viruses

Picornaviridae are a large virus family causing widespread, often pathogenic infections in humans and other mammals. Picornaviruses are genetically and antigenically highly diverse, with evidence for complex evolutionary histories in which recombination plays a major part. To investigate the nature of recombination and selection processes underlying the evolution of serotypes within different picornavirus genera, large-scale analysis of recombination frequencies and sites, segregation by serotype within each genus, and sequence selection and composition was performed, and results were compared with those for other nonenveloped positive-stranded viruses (astroviruses and human noroviruses) and with flavivirus and alphavirus control groups. Enteroviruses, aphthoviruses, and teschoviruses showed phylogenetic segregation by serotype only in the structural region; lack of segregation elsewhere was attributable to extensive interserotype recombination. Nonsegregating viruses also showed several characteristic sequence divergence and composition differences between genome regions that were absent from segregating virus control groups, such as much greater amino acid sequence divergence in the structural region, markedly elevated ratios of nonsynonymous-to-synonymous substitutions, and differences in codon usage. These properties were shared with other picornavirus genera, such as the parechoviruses and erboviruses. The nonenveloped astroviruses and noroviruses similarly showed high frequencies of recombination, evidence for positive selection, and differential codon use in the capsid region, implying similar underlying evolutionary mechanisms and pressures driving serotype differentiation. This process was distinct from more-recent sequence evolution generating diversity within picornavirus serotypes, in which neutral or purifying selection was prominent. Overall, this study identifies common themes in the diversification process generating picornavirus serotypes that contribute to understanding of their evolution and pathogenicity.

Molecular Signatures of Natural Selection

There is an increasing interest in detecting genes, or genomic regions, that have been targeted by natural selection. The interest stems from a basic desire to learn more about evolutionary processes in humans and other organisms, and from the realization that inferences regarding selection may provide important functional information. This review provides a nonmathematical description of the issues involved in detecting selection from DNA sequences and SNP data and is intended for readers who are not familiar with population genetic theory. Particular attention is placed on issues relating to the analysis of large-scale genomic data sets.

Phylogenetic analysis of isolates of Beet necrotic yellow vein virus collected worldwide

A study of molecular diversity was carried out on 136 sugar beets infected withBeet necrotic yellow vein virus(BNYVV,Benyvirus) collected worldwide. The nucleotide sequences of the RNA-2-encoded CP, RNA-3-encoded p25 and RNA-5-encoded p26 proteins were analysed. The resulting phylogenetic trees allowed BNYVV to be classified into groups that show correlations between the virus clusters and geographic origins. The selective constraints on these three sequences were measured by estimating the ratio between synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates (ω) with maximum-likelihood models. The results suggest that selective constraints are exerted differently on the proteins. CP was the most conserved, with meanωvalues ranging from 0·12 to 0·15, while p26 was less constrained, with meanωvalues ranging from 0·20 to 0·33. Selection was detected in three amino acid positions of p26, withωvalues of about 5·0. The p25 sequences presented the highest meanωvalues (0·36–1·10), with strong positive selection (ω=4·7–54·7) acting on 14 amino acids, and particularly on amino acid 68, where theωvalue was the highest so far encountered in plant viruses.

Evidence of positive Darwinian selection in putative meningococcal vaccine antigens

Meningococcal meningitidis is a life-threatening disease. In Europe and the United States the majority of cases are caused by virulent meningococcal strains belonging to serogroup B. Presently there is no effective vaccine against serogroup B strains, as traditional vaccine antigens such as polysaccharide capsules are unusable as they lead to autoimmunity. The year 2000 saw the publication of the complete genome of Neisseria meningitidis MC58, a virulent serogroup B bacterium. Working in conjunction with the sequencing project, researchers endeavored to locate highly conserved membrane-associated proteins that elicit an immune response. It is hoped that these proteins will provide a basis for novel vaccines against serogroup B strains. A number of potential vaccine antigens have been located and are presently in phase I clinical trials. Recently many reports pertaining to the evidence of positive Darwinian selection in membrane proteins of pathogens have been reported. This study utilized in silico methods to test for evidence of historical positive Darwinian selection in seven such vaccine candidates. We found that two of these proteins show signatures of adaptive evolution, while the remaining proteins show evidence of strong purifying selection. This has significant implications for the design of a vaccine against serogroup B strains, as it has been shown that vaccines that target epitopes that are under strong purifying selection are better than those that target variable epitopes.

Evidence of positive Darwinian selection in Omp85, a highly conserved bacterial outer membrane protein essential for cell viability

Omp85 is a highly conserved outer membrane protein found in all gram-negative bacteria. It is essential for bacterial cell viability and plays an integral function in the positioning and folding of other outer membrane proteins into the bacterial outer membrane. We have employed a maximum likelihood and a maximum parsimony approach to detect evidence of positive Darwinian selection in Omp85 homologues from 10 delta-proteobacteria and have identified 14 amino acid sites that show evidence of being under the influence of adaptive evolution. Interestingly all sites bar one are concentrated within surface loops of the protein that most likely interact with host immune response or the surrounding environment. Alternatively amino acids within membrane-spanning regions of the protein are found to be under purifying selection most likely as a result of structural constraints.

Molecular evolution of the hepatitis delta virus antigen gene: recombination or positive selection?

We present the statistical analysis of diversifying selective pressures on the hepatitis D antigen gene (HDAg). Thirty-three distinct HDAg sequences from subtypes I, II, and III were tested for positive selection using maximum likelihood methods based on models of codon substitution that allow variable selective pressures across sites. Such methods have been shown to be sufficiently accurate and successful in detecting positive selection in a variety of viral and nonviral protein-coding genes. About 11% of codon sites in HDAg were estimated to be under diversifying selection. Remarkably, most of the residues predicted to evolve under positive selection were located in the immunogenic domain and the N-terminus region with reported antigenic activity. These sites are potential targets of the host's immune response. Identification of residues mutating to escape immune recognition may help to distinguish the most virulent strains and aid vaccine design. Possible interplay between positive selection and recombination on the gene is discussed but no significant evidence for recombination was found.

Foot-and-mouth disease

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals. The disease was initially described in the 16th century and was the first animal pathogen identified as a virus. Recent FMD outbreaks in developed countries and their significant economic impact have increased the concern of governments worldwide. This review describes the reemergence of FMD in developed countries that had been disease free for many years and the effect that this has had on disease control strategies. The etiologic agent, FMD virus (FMDV), a member of the Picornaviridae family, is examined in detail at the genetic, structural, and biochemical levels and in terms of its antigenic diversity. The virus replication cycle, including virus-receptor interactions as well as unique aspects of virus translation and shutoff of host macromolecular synthesis, is discussed. This information has been the basis for the development of improved protocols to rapidly identify disease outbreaks, to differentiate vaccinated from infected animals, and to begin to identify and test novel vaccine candidates. Furthermore, this knowledge, coupled with the ability to manipulate FMDV genomes at the molecular level, has provided the framework for examination of disease pathogenesis and the development of a more complete understanding of the virus and host factors involved.

Widespread adaptive evolution in the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 genome

We investigated variable selective pressures among amino acid sites in HIV-1 genes. Selective pressure at the amino acid level was measured by using the nonsynonymous/synonymous substitution rate ratio (omega = dN/dS). To identify amino acid sites under positive selection with omega > 1, we applied maximum likelihood models that allow variable omega ratios among sites to analyze genomic sequences of 26 HIV-1 lineages including subtypes A, B, and C. Likelihood ratio tests detected sites under positive selection in each of the major genes in the genome: env, gag, pol, vif, and vpr. Positive selection was also detected in nef, tat, and vpu, although those genes are very small. The majority of positive selection sites is located in gp160. Positive selection was not detected if omega was estimated as an average across all sites, indicating the lack of power of the averaging approach. Candidate positive selection sites were mapped onto the available protein tertiary structures and immunogenic epitopes. We measured the physiochemical properties of amino acids and found that those at positive selection sites were more diverse than those at variable sites. Furthermore, amino acid residues at exposed positive selection sites were more physiochemically diverse than at buried positive selection sites. Our results demonstrate genomewide diversifying selection acting on the HIV-1.

Evolution of wild-type 1 poliovirus in two healthy siblings excreting the virus over a period of 6 months

Wild-type 1 poliovirus (wtPV1) strains were isolated from two young healthy brothers shortly after arrival in Finland from Somalia in 1993. Twelve (sibling A) and 18 (sibling B) specimens collected over a period of more than 6 months yielded wtPV1. Partial sequences obtained from the one and two earliest isolates from sibling A and B, respectively, were nearly identical, differing from each other by only one or two nucleotides. Subsequently, the virus evolved separately in both siblings so that maximal differences between strains derived from a given subject peaked at 2.2 % for sibling A, at 1.5 % for sibling B and at 2.5 % between the two siblings in the VP1-coding part of the genome. All substitutions in the 150 nt VP1-2A junction region were synonymous, whereas as many as eight of the 31 variable positions in the remaining VP1-coding region encoded amino acid replacements in at least one strain. Probable structural locations of the variable amino acid positions were mapped to the published PV1/Mahoney structural model. Most of the substitutions occurred around the fivefold axis in motifs that are known to be or suspected to be targets of neutralizing antibodies. We suggest that the striking genetic divergence observed between the strains was based on a combination of bottleneck transmission events and antigenic drift during the prolonged period of poliovirus replication.

Error thresholds and the constraints to RNA virus evolution

RNA viruses are often thought of as possessing almost limitless adaptability as a result of their extreme mutation rates. However, high mutation rates also put a cap on the size of the viral genome by establishing an error threshold, beyond which lethal numbers of deleterious mutations accumulate. Herein, I argue that a lack of genomic space means that RNA viruses will be subject to important evolutionary constraints because specific sequences are required to encode multiple and often conflicting functions. Empirical evidence for these constraints, and how they limit viral adaptability, is now beginning to accumulate. Documenting the constraints to RNA virus evolution has important implications for predicting the emergence of new viruses and for improving therapeutic procedures.

Origin, world-wide dispersion, bio-geographical diversification, radiation and recombination: an evolutionary history of Yam mild mosaic virus (YMMV)

We developed an evolutionary epidemiological approach to understand the regional and world-wide dispersion of Yam mild mosaic virus (YMMV) by retracing its evolutionary history. Analyses of the distribution and the prevalence of YMMV in the Caribbean islands of Guadeloupe and Martinique, and in French Guyana revealed that YMMV has a wide repartition and different prevalence on Dioscorea alata L. (Asian and Oceanic origin), on D. cayenensis Lam.-D. rotundata Poir. (African origin) and on D. trifida L. (Amazon and the Caribbean origin) in this region. Considering the data on the current dispersion of the virus and the evolution and the history of the yams, the phylogenetic analysis of the 3' terminal part of the YMMV genome gave a consistent support of the Asian-Pacific origin of YMMV from D. alata species. The YMMV phylogenetic tree is star-like, suggesting an early split of the genetic lineages. An important part of the clades is constituted by a single lineage arisen by recombination. The largest emerging monophyletic group illustrates well YMMV geographical dispersion. This evolutionary pattern contrasts with the one revealed by the African distinct lineages and by the second significant monophyletic group, for which a host adaptation to D. trifida is suggested. The analysis of the pattern of nucleotide substitutions in the CP gene revealed that purifying selection dominates the evolution of the CP of potyviruses and strongly operates on the YMMV. Switching events, radiation, host and geographical adaptation and recombination events are proposed as major traits of YMMV evolutionary history.

Effect of recombination on the accuracy of the likelihood method for detecting positive selection at amino acid sites

Maximum-likelihood methods based on models of codon substitution accounting for heterogeneous selective pressures across sites have proved to be powerful in detecting positive selection in protein-coding DNA sequences. Those methods are phylogeny based and do not account for the effects of recombination. When recombination occurs, such as in population data, no unique tree topology can describe the evolutionary history of the whole sequence. This violation of assumptions raises serious concerns about the likelihood method for detecting positive selection. Here we use computer simulation to evaluate the reliability of the likelihood-ratio test (LRT) for positive selection in the presence of recombination. We examine three tests based on different models of variable selective pressures among sites. Sequences are simulated using a coalescent model with recombination and analyzed using codon-based likelihood models ignoring recombination. We find that the LRT is robust to low levels of recombination (with fewer than three recombination events in the history of a sample of 10 sequences). However, at higher levels of recombination, the type I error rate can be as high as 90%, especially when the null model in the LRT is unrealistic, and the test often mistakes recombination as evidence for positive selection. The test that compares the more realistic models M7 (beta) against M8 (beta and omega) is more robust to recombination, where the null model M7 allows the positive selection pressure to vary between 0 and 1 (and so does not account for positive selection), and the alternative model M8 allows an additional discrete class with omega = d(N)/d(S) that could be estimated to be >1 (and thus accounts for positive selection). Identification of sites under positive selection by the empirical Bayes method appears to be less affected than the LRT by recombination.

The implications of virus diversity within the SAT 2 serotype for control of foot-and-mouth disease in sub-Saharan Africa

SAT 2 is the serotype most often associated with outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in livestock in southern and western Africa and is the only SAT type to have been recorded outside the African continent in the last decade. Its epidemiology is complicated by the presence of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), which play an important role in virus maintenance and transmission. To assess the level of genetic complexity of this serotype among viruses associated with both domestic livestock and wildlife, complete VP1 gene sequences of 53 viruses from 17 countries and three different host species were analysed. Phylogenetic analysis revealed eleven virus lineages, differing from each other by at least 20 % in pairwise nucleotide comparisons, four of which fall within the southern African region, two in West Africa and the remaining five in central and East Africa. No evidence of recombination between these lineages was detected, and thus we conclude that these are independently evolving virus lineages which occur primarily in discrete geographical localities in accordance with the FMD virus topotype concept. Applied to the whole phylogeny, rates of nucleotide substitution are significantly different between topotypes, but most individual topotypes evolve in accordance with a molecular clock at an average rate of approximately 0.002 substitutions per site per year. This study provides an indication of the intratypic complexity of the SAT 2 serotype at the continental level and emphasizes the value of molecular characterization of diverse FMD field strains for tracing the origin of outbreaks.

Molecular basis of adaptive convergence in experimental populations of RNA viruses

Characterizing the molecular basis of adaptation is one of the most important goals in modern evolutionary genetics. Here, we report a full-genome sequence analysis of 21 independent populations of vesicular stomatitis ribovirus evolved on the same cell type but under different demographic regimes. Each demographic regime differed in the effective viral population size. Evolutionary convergences are widespread both at synonymous and nonsynonymous replacements as well as in an intergenic region. We also found evidence for epistasis among sites of the same and different loci. We explain convergences as the consequence of four factors: (1) environmental homogeneity that supposes an identical challenge for each population, (2) structural constraints within the genome, (3) epistatic interactions among sites that create the observed pattern of covariation, and (4) the phenomenon of clonal interference among competing genotypes carrying different beneficial mutations. Using these convergences, we have been able to estimate the fitness contribution of the identified mutations and epistatic groups. Keeping in mind statistical uncertainties, these estimates suggest that along with several beneficial mutations of major effect, many other mutations got fixed as part of a group of epistatic mutations.

Serial passage of foot-and-mouth disease virus in sheep reveals declining levels of viraemia over time

If an infectious agent is to maintain itself within a closed population by means of an unbroken serial chain of infections, it must maintain the level of infectiousness of individuals through time, or termination of the transmission chain is inevitable. One possible cause of diminution in infectiousness along serial chains of transmission may be that individuals are unable to amplify and transmit comparable levels of the infectious agent. Here, the results are reported of a novel experiment designed specifically to assess the effects of serial passage of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in experimental groups of sheep. A virus isolate taken from an epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) characterized by rapid fade-out of infection was passed serially through four groups of sheep housed in an isolation unit. Although it was not possible to measure individual infectiousness directly, blood virus load from infected individuals was quantified using a real-time PCR assay and used as an underlying indicator of the level of infection. The results of this assay concurred well with those of the traditional tissue-culture assay and were shown to be highly repeatable. The level of peak viraemia was shown to fall significantly with the time of infection and with passage group, both in terms of the group mean and regression analysis of individual values, suggesting that this isolate of FMDV may, under certain conditions, be unable to maintain itself indefinitely in susceptible sheep populations. The results of these experiments are discussed in terms of the epidemiology of FMD in sheep.

Accuracy and power of bayes prediction of amino acid sites under positive selection

Bayes prediction quantifies uncertainty by assigning posterior probabilities. It was used to identify amino acids in a protein under recurrent diversifying selection indicated by higher nonsynonymous (d(N)) than synonymous (d(S)) substitution rates or by omega = d(N)/d(S) > 1. Parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood under a codon substitution model that assumed several classes of sites with different omega ratios. The Bayes theorem was used to calculate the posterior probabilities of each site falling into these site classes. Here, we evaluate the performance of Bayes prediction of amino acids under positive selection by computer simulation. We measured the accuracy by the proportion of predicted sites that were truly under selection and the power by the proportion of true positively selected sites that were predicted by the method. The accuracy was slightly better for longer sequences, whereas the power was largely unaffected by the increase in sequence length. Both accuracy and power were higher for medium or highly diverged sequences than for similar sequences. We found that accuracy and power were unacceptably low when data contained only a few highly similar sequences. However, sampling a large number of lineages improved the performance substantially. Even for very similar sequences, accuracy and power can be high if over 100 taxa are used in the analysis. We make the following recommendations: (1) prediction of positive selection sites is not feasible for a few closely related sequences; (2) using a large number of lineages is the best way to improve the accuracy and power of the prediction; and (3) multiple models of heterogeneous selective pressures among sites should be applied in real data analysis.

Codon-substitution models for detecting molecular adaptation at individual sites along specific lineages

The nonsynonymous (amino acid-altering) to synonymous (silent) substitution rate ratio (omega = d(N)/d(S)) provides a measure of natural selection at the protein level, with omega = 1, >1, and <1, indicating neutral evolution, purifying selection, and positive selection, respectively. Previous studies that used this measure to detect positive selection have often taken an approach of pairwise comparison, estimating substitution rates by averaging over all sites in the protein. As most amino acids in a functional protein are under structural and functional constraints and adaptive evolution probably affects only a few sites at a few time points, this approach of averaging rates over sites and over time has little power. Previously, we developed codon-based substitution models that allow the omega ratio to vary either among lineages or among sites. In this paper we extend previous models to allow the omega ratio to vary both among sites and among lineages and implement the new models in the likelihood framework. These models may be useful for identifying positive selection along prespecified lineages that affects only a few sites in the protein. We apply those branch-site models as well as previous branch- and site-specific models to three data sets: the lysozyme genes from primates, the tumor suppressor BRCA1 genes from primates, and the phytochrome (PHY) gene family in angiosperms. Positive selection is detected in the lysozyme and BRCA genes by both the new and the old models. However, only the new models detected positive selection acting on lineages after gene duplication in the PHY gene family. Additional tests on several data sets suggest that the new models may be useful in detecting positive selection after gene duplication in gene family evolution.

Codon-substitution models to detect adaptive evolution that account for heterogeneous selective pressures among site classes

The nonsynonymous to synonymous substitution rate ratio (omega = d(N)/d(S)) provides a sensitive measure of selective pressure at the protein level, with omega values <1, =1, and >1 indicating purifying selection, neutral evolution, and diversifying selection, respectively. Maximum likelihood models of codon substitution developed recently account for variable selective pressures among amino acid sites by employing a statistical distribution for the omega ratio among sites. Those models, called random-sites models, are suitable when we do not know a priori which sites are under what kind of selective pressure. Sometimes prior information (such as the tertiary structure of the protein) might be available to partition sites in the protein into different classes, which are expected to be under different selective pressures. It is then sensible to use such information in the model. In this paper, we implement maximum likelihood models for prepartitioned data sets, which account for the heterogeneity among site partitions by using different omega parameters for the partitions. The models, referred to as fixed-sites models, are also useful for combined analysis of multiple genes from the same set of species. We apply the models to data sets of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I alleles from human populations and of the abalone sperm lysin genes. Structural information is used to partition sites in MHC into two classes: those in the antigen recognition site (ARS) and those outside. Positive selection is detected in the ARS by the fixed-sites models. Similarly, sites in lysin are classified into the buried and solvent-exposed classes according to the tertiary structure, and positive selection was detected at the solvent-exposed sites. The random-sites models identified a number of sites under positive selection in each data set, confirming and elaborating the results of the fixed-sites models. The analysis demonstrates the utility of the fixed-sites models, as well as the power of previous random-sites models, which do not use the prior information to partition sites.

Equine rhinitis B virus: a new serotype

Equine rhinovirus serotype 3 isolate P313/75 was assigned, with an unclassified genus status, to the family PICORNAVIRIDAE: The sequence from the 5' poly(C) tract to the 3' poly(A) tract of P313/75 was determined. The sequence is 8821 bases in length and contains a potential open reading frame for a polyprotein of 2583 amino acids. Sequence comparison and phylogenic analysis suggest that P313/75 is most closely related to the prototype equine rhinitis B virus (ERBV) strain P1436/71, formerly named equine rhinovirus type 2. A high degree of sequence similarity was found in the P2 and P3 regions of the two genomes. However, the deduced amino acid sequences of the P1 region of P313/75 and ERBV strain P1436/71 contained significant differences, which presumably account for the serological segregation of the two viruses. It is suggested that P313/75 can be classified as a new serotype of the genus Erbovirus, tentatively named ERBV2. Seroepidemiological data indicate that ERBV2 infection of horses may be common (24%) in Australia.

Sequence conservation and antigenic variation of the structural proteins of equine rhinitis A virus

The nucleotide and deduced amino acid sequences of the P1 region of the genomes of 10 independent equine rhinitis A virus (ERAV) isolates were determined and found to be very closely related. A panel of seven monoclonal antibodies to the prototype virus ERAV.393/76 that bound to nonneutralization epitopes conserved among all 10 isolates was raised. In serum neutralization assays, rabbit polyclonal sera and sera from naturally and experimentally infected horses reacted in a consistent and discriminating manner with the 10 isolates, which indicated the existence of variation in the neutralization epitopes of these viruses.

The generation and persistence of genetic variation in foot-and-mouth disease virus

Genetic variation in foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is of interest for at least two reasons. First, changes to the genes encoding capsid proteins results in antigenic variation, and affects vaccine efficiency and effectiveness of vaccination programs; second, genetic changes can lead to important insights into the transport of virus between countries, regions, herds, and even possibly individuals. Current estimates of RNA virus mutation rates suggest that an average of about one base mis-incorporation is likely to occur each time a single FMDV genome replicates. This should result in the introduction of every possible 1-step mutation from the progenitor genotype into the viraemia of a single infected animal many times a day. In the absence of purifying selection, a single infected animal should therefore generate a genetically very diverse population of virus.Viral-capsid sequences obtained from infected animals sampled over long-term FMDV epidemics suggest that these genetic changes accrue in a remarkably linear 'clock-like' fashion and at rates of around 1% change per year. While such a rate is generally regarded as quite high, it is actually somewhat lower than one might expect based on the rate at which viral diversity could be generated within a single animal. The difference might be explained in a variety of possible ways: (1) the mutation rate has been overestimated; (2) purifying selection is stronger than predicted; (3) only a restricted subset of excreted virus is actually infectious; (4) infected animals only excrete virus from a small partitioned subset of amplified virus, and that most of the generated viral diversity is unable to exit the animal; or (5) only a small fraction of all infected animals participate in the actual disease-transmission process.