Plasticity in structure and assembly of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein

Characterization of the binding features between SARS-CoV-2 5'-proximal transcripts of genomic RNA and nucleocapsid proteins

Packaging signals (PSs) of coronaviruses (CoVs) are specific RNA elements recognized by nucleocapsid (N) proteins that direct the selective packaging of genomic RNAs (gRNAs). These signals have been identified in the coding regions of the nonstructural protein 15 (Nsp 15) in CoVs classified under Embecovirus, a subgenus of betacoronaviruses (beta-CoVs). The PSs in other alpha- and beta-CoVs have been proposed to reside in the 5'-proximal regions of gRNAs, supported by comprehensive phylogenetic evidence. However, experimental data remain limited. In this study, we investigated the interactions between Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 5'-proximal gRNA transcripts and N proteins using electrophoretic mobility shift assays (EMSAs). Our findings revealed that the in vitro synthesized 5'-proximal gRNA transcripts of CoVs can shift from a major conformation to alternative conformations. We also observed that the conformer comprising multiple stem-loops (SLs) is preferentially bound by N proteins. Deletions of the 5'-proximal structural elements of CoV gRNA transcripts, SL1 and SL5a/b/c in particular, were found to promote the formation of alternative conformations. Furthermore, we identified RNA-binding peptides from a pool derived from SARS-CoV N protein. These RNA-interacting peptides were shown to preferentially bind to wild-type SL5a RNA. In addition, our observations of N protein condensate formation in vitro demonstrated that liquid-liquid phase separation (LLPS) of N proteins with CoV-5'-UTR transcripts was influenced by the presence of SL5a/b/c. In conclusion, these results collectively reveal previously uncharacterized binding features between the 5'-proximal transcripts of CoV gRNAs and N proteins.

Variant mutation G215C in SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid enhances viral infection via altered genomic encapsidation

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants and their respective phenotypes represents an important set of tools to understand basic coronavirus biology as well as the public health implications of individual mutations in variants of concern. While mutations outside of spike are not well studied, the entire viral genome is undergoing evolutionary selection, with several variants containing mutations in the central disordered linker region of the nucleocapsid (N) protein. Here, we identify a mutation (G215C), characteristic of the Delta variant, that introduces a novel cysteine into this linker domain, which results in the formation of a more stable N-N dimer. Using reverse genetics, we determined that this cysteine residue is necessary and sufficient for stable dimer formation in a WA1 SARS-CoV-2 background, where it results in significantly increased viral growth both in vitro and in vivo. Mechanistically, we show that the N:G215C mutant has more encapsidation as measured by increased RNA binding to N, N incorporation into virions, and electron microscopy showing that individual virions are larger, with elongated morphologies.

Identification and Characterization of Three Novel Iflaviruses in the Cabbage Whitefly Aleyrodes proletella

The cabbage whitefly (A. proletella) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) is a major agricultural pest that primarily targets cruciferous crops, such as cabbage, broccoli, and kale, causing extensive damage through feeding and honeydew. However, its associated virome has received limited research attention. In this study, we collected cabbage whiteflies in Xinjiang Agricultural University (43.80833 N, 87.56778 E, 882.3 m), systematically identified the RNA virome of the A. proletella and successfully identified three novel iflaviruses (Aleyrodes proletella iflavirus 1 (APIV1), Aleyrodes proletella iflavirus 2 (APIV2) and Aleyrodes proletella iflavirus 3 (APIV3)). APIV1-3 all have a 5' structural protein region and a 3' non-structural protein region. Phylogenetic and sequence identity analyses suggest that APIV1-3 are novel members of the family Iflaviridae. Structural modeling using AlphaFold3 revealed a conserved protein core region and a variable outer loop region. This study provides valuable insights into the virome diversity of A. proletella, establishing a foundation for future research on virus-host interactions and the potential for biocontrol applications in sustainable agriculture.

Structural proteins of human coronaviruses: what makes them different?

Following COVID-19 outbreak with its unprecedented effect on the entire world, the interest to the coronaviruses increased. The causative agent of the COVID-19, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus - 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is one of seven coronaviruses that is pathogenic to humans. Others include SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E. The viruses differ in their pathogenicity. SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 are capable to spread rapidly and cause epidemic, while HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E cause mild respiratory disease. The difference in the viral behavior is due to structural and functional differences. All seven human coronaviruses possess four structural proteins: spike, envelope, membrane, and nucleocapsid. Spike protein with its receptor binding domain is crucial for the entry to the host cell, where different receptors on the host cell are recruited by different viruses. Envelope protein plays important role in viral assembly, and following cellular entry, contributes to immune response. Membrane protein is an abundant viral protein, contributing to the assembly and pathogenicity of the virus. Nucleocapsid protein encompasses the viral RNA into ribonucleocapsid, playing important role in viral replication. The present review provides detailed summary of structural and functional characteristics of structural proteins from seven human coronaviruses, and could serve as a practical reference when pathogenic human coronaviruses are compared, and novel treatments are proposed.

Exploring the Replication and Pathogenic Characteristics of Alpha, Delta, and Omicron Variants of SARS-CoV-2

The variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2 have exhibited different phenotypic characteristics in clinical settings which are yet to be fully explored. This study aimed to characterize the viral replication features of major VOCs of SARS-CoV-2 and their association with pathogenicity. The Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 isolated from the COVID-19 patients in Japan were propagated in VeroE6/TMPRSS2 cells. The viral replication and pathological features were evaluated by laser and electron microscopy at different time points. The results revealed that the Delta variant dominantly infected the VeroE6/TMPRSS2 cells and formed increased syncytia compared to the Alpha and Omicron variants. Relatively large numbers of virions and increased immunoreactivities of the SARS-CoV-2 N-protein were detected in the endoplasmic reticulum and intracellular vesicles of Delta-infected cells. Interestingly, the N-protein and virions were detected in the nucleus of Delta-infected cells, while such properties were not observed in the case of Alpha and Omicron variants. In addition, early nuclear membrane damage followed by severe cellular damage was prominent in Delta-infected cells. A unique mutation (G215C) in the N-protein of the Delta variant is thought to be associated with severe cell damage. In conclusion, this study highlights the distinct replicative and pathogenic characteristics of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 compared to the Alpha and Omicron variants, shedding light on the potential mechanisms underlying its increased pathogenicity.

Unraveling the role of the nucleocapsid protein in SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis: From viral life cycle to vaccine development

BACKGROUND

The nucleocapsid protein (N protein) is the most abundant protein in SARS-CoV-2. Viral RNA and this protein are bound by electrostatic forces, forming cytoplasmic helical structures known as nucleocapsids. Subsequently, these nucleocapsids interact with the membrane (M) protein, facilitating virus budding into early secretory compartments.

SCOPE OF REVIEW

Exploring the role of the N protein in the SARS-CoV-2 life cycle, pathogenesis, post-sequelae consequences, and interaction with host immunity has enhanced our understanding of its function and potential strategies for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection.

MAJOR CONCLUSION

This review provides an overview of the N protein's involvement in SARS-CoV-2 infectivity, highlighting its crucial role in the virus-host protein interaction and immune system modulation, which in turn influences viral spread.

GENERAL SIGNIFICANCE

Understanding these aspects identifies the N protein as a promising target for developing effective antiviral treatments and vaccines against SARS-CoV-2.

The dimerization domain of SARS CoV 2 Nucleocapsid protein is partially disordered as a monomer and forms a high affinity dynamic complex

The SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid (N) is a 419 amino acids protein that drives the compaction and packaging of the viral genome. This compaction is aided not only by protein-RNA interactions, but also by protein-protein interactions that contribute to increasing the valence of the nucleocapsid protein. Here, we focused on quantifying the mechanisms that control dimer formation. Single-molecule Förster Resonance Energy Transfer enabled us to investigate the conformations of the dimerization domain in the context of the full-length protein as well as the energetics associated with dimerization. Under monomeric conditions, we observed significantly expanded configurations of the dimerization domain (compared to the folded dimer structure), which are consistent with a dynamic conformational ensemble. The addition of unlabeled protein stabilizes a folded dimer configuration with a high mean transfer efficiency, in agreement with predictions based on known structures. Dimerization is characterized by a dissociation constant of ~ 12 nM at 23 °C and is driven by strong enthalpic interactions between the two protein subunits, which originate from the coupled folding and binding. Interestingly, the dimer structure retains some of the conformational heterogeneity of the monomeric units, and the addition of denaturant reveals that the dimer domain can significantly expand before being completely destabilized. Our findings suggest that the inherent flexibility of the monomer form is required to adopt the specific fold of the dimer domain, where the two subunits interlock with one another. We proposed that the retained flexibility of the dimer form may favor the capture and interactions with RNA, and that the temperature dependence of dimerization may explain some of the previous observations regarding the phase separation propensity of the N protein.

AlphaFold2 Reveals Structural Patterns of Seasonal Haplotype Diversification in SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid Protein Variants

The COVID-19 pandemic saw the emergence of various Variants of Concern (VOCs) that took the world by storm, often replacing the ones that preceded them. The characteristic mutant constellations of these VOCs increased viral transmissibility and infectivity. Their origin and evolution remain puzzling. With the help of data mining efforts and the GISAID database, a chronology of 22 haplotypes described viral evolution up until 23 July 2023. Since the three-dimensional atomic structures of proteins corresponding to the identified haplotypes are not available, ab initio methods were here utilized. Regions of intrinsic disorder proved to be important for viral evolution, as evidenced by the targeted change to the nucleocapsid (N) protein at the sequence, structure, and biochemical levels. The linker region of the N-protein, which binds to the RNA genome and self-oligomerizes for efficient genome packaging, was greatly impacted by mutations throughout the pandemic, followed by changes in structure and intrinsic disorder. Remarkably, VOC constellations acted co-operatively to balance the more extreme effects of individual haplotypes. Our strategy of mapping the dynamic evolutionary landscape of genetically linked mutations to the N-protein structure demonstrates the utility of ab initio modeling and deep learning tools for therapeutic intervention.

Modulation of biophysical properties of nucleocapsid protein in the mutant spectrum of SARS-CoV-2

Genetic diversity is a hallmark of RNA viruses and the basis for their evolutionary success. Taking advantage of the uniquely large genomic database of SARS-CoV-2, we examine the impact of mutations across the spectrum of viable amino acid sequences on the biophysical phenotypes of the highly expressed and multifunctional nucleocapsid protein. We find variation in the physicochemical parameters of its extended intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs) sufficient to allow local plasticity, but also observe functional constraints that similarly occur in related coronaviruses. In biophysical experiments with several N-protein species carrying mutations associated with major variants, we find that point mutations in the IDRs can have nonlocal impact and modulate thermodynamic stability, secondary structure, protein oligomeric state, particle formation, and liquid-liquid phase separation. In the Omicron variant, distant mutations in different IDRs have compensatory effects in shifting a delicate balance of interactions controlling protein assembly properties, and include the creation of a new protein-protein interaction interface in the N-terminal IDR through the defining P13L mutation. A picture emerges where genetic diversity is accompanied by significant variation in biophysical characteristics of functional N-protein species, in particular in the IDRs.

Assembly of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein with nucleic acid

The viral genome of SARS-CoV-2 is packaged by the nucleocapsid (N-)protein into ribonucleoprotein particles (RNPs), 38 ± 10 of which are contained in each virion. Their architecture has remained unclear due to the pleomorphism of RNPs, the high flexibility of N-protein intrinsically disordered regions, and highly multivalent interactions between viral RNA and N-protein binding sites in both N-terminal (NTD) and C-terminal domain (CTD). Here we explore critical interaction motifs of RNPs by applying a combination of biophysical techniques to ancestral and mutant proteins binding different nucleic acids in an in vitro assay for RNP formation, and by examining nucleocapsid protein variants in a viral assembly assay. We find that nucleic acid-bound N-protein dimers oligomerize via a recently described protein-protein interface presented by a transient helix in its long disordered linker region between NTD and CTD. The resulting hexameric complexes are stabilized by multivalent protein-nucleic acid interactions that establish crosslinks between dimeric subunits. Assemblies are stabilized by the dimeric CTD of N-protein offering more than one binding site for stem-loop RNA. Our study suggests a model for RNP assembly where N-protein scaffolding at high density on viral RNA is followed by cooperative multimerization through protein-protein interactions in the disordered linker.

Phosphorylation in the Ser/Arg-rich region of the nucleocapsid of SARS-CoV-2 regulates phase separation by inhibiting self-association of a distant helix

The nucleocapsid protein (N) of SARS-CoV-2 is essential for virus replication, genome packaging, evading host immunity, and virus maturation. N is a multidomain protein composed of an independently folded monomeric N-terminal domain that is the primary site for RNA binding and a dimeric C-terminal domain that is essential for efficient phase separation and condensate formation with RNA. The domains are separated by a disordered Ser/Arg-rich region preceding a self-associating Leu-rich helix. Phosphorylation in the Ser/Arg region in infected cells decreases the viscosity of N:RNA condensates promoting viral replication and host immune evasion. The molecular level effect of phosphorylation, however, is missing from our current understanding. Using NMR spectroscopy and analytical ultracentrifugation, we show that phosphorylation destabilizes the self-associating Leu-rich helix 30 amino-acids distant from the phosphorylation site. NMR and gel shift assays demonstrate that RNA binding by the linker is dampened by phosphorylation, whereas RNA binding to the full-length protein is not significantly affected presumably due to retained strong interactions with the primary RNA-binding domain. Introducing a switchable self-associating domain to replace the Leu-rich helix confirms the importance of linker self-association to droplet formation and suggests that phosphorylation not only increases solubility of the positively charged elongated Ser/Arg region as observed in other RNA-binding proteins but can also inhibit self-association of the Leu-rich helix. These data highlight the effect of phosphorylation both at local sites and at a distant self-associating hydrophobic helix in regulating liquid-liquid phase separation of the entire protein.

Design and Development of an Antigen Test for SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid Protein to Validate the Viral Quality Assurance Panels

The continuing mutability of the SARS-CoV-2 virus can result in failures of diagnostic assays. To address this, we describe a generalizable bioinformatics-to-biology pipeline developed for the calibration and quality assurance of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 variant panels provided to Radical Acceleration of Diagnostics programs (RADx)-radical program awardees. A heuristic genetic analysis based on variant-defining mutations demonstrated the lowest genetic variance in the Nucleocapsid protein (Np)-C-terminal domain (CTD) across all SARS-CoV-2 variants. We then employed the Shannon entropy method on (Np) sequences collected from the major variants, verifying the CTD with lower entropy (less prone to mutations) than other Np regions. Polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies were raised against this target CTD antigen and used to develop an Enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) test for SARS-CoV-2. Blinded Viral Quality Assurance (VQA) panels comprised of UV-inactivated SARS-CoV-2 variants (XBB.1.5, BF.7, BA.1, B.1.617.2, and WA1) and distractor respiratory viruses (CoV 229E, CoV OC43, RSV A2, RSV B, IAV H1N1, and IBV) were assembled by the RADx-rad Diagnostics core and tested using the ELISA described here. The assay tested positive for all variants with high sensitivity (limit of detection: 1.72-8.78 ng/mL) and negative for the distractor virus panel. Epitope mapping for the monoclonal antibodies identified a 20 amino acid antigenic peptide on the Np-CTD that an in-silico program also predicted for the highest antigenicity. This work provides a template for a bioinformatics pipeline to select genetic regions with a low propensity for mutation (low Shannon entropy) to develop robust 'pan-variant' antigen-based assays for viruses prone to high mutational rates.

Modulation of Biophysical Properties of Nucleocapsid Protein in the Mutant Spectrum of SARS-CoV-2

Genetic diversity is a hallmark of RNA viruses and the basis for their evolutionary success. Taking advantage of the uniquely large genomic database of SARS-CoV-2, we examine the impact of mutations across the spectrum of viable amino acid sequences on the biophysical phenotypes of the highly expressed and multifunctional nucleocapsid protein. We find variation in the physicochemical parameters of its extended intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs) sufficient to allow local plasticity, but also exhibiting functional constraints that similarly occur in related coronaviruses. In biophysical experiments with several N-protein species carrying mutations associated with major variants, we find that point mutations in the IDRs can have nonlocal impact and modulate thermodynamic stability, secondary structure, protein oligomeric state, particle formation, and liquid-liquid phase separation. In the Omicron variant, distant mutations in different IDRs have compensatory effects in shifting a delicate balance of interactions controlling protein assembly properties, and include the creation of a new protein-protein interaction interface in the N-terminal IDR through the defining P13L mutation. A picture emerges where genetic diversity is accompanied by significant variation in biophysical characteristics of functional N-protein species, in particular in the IDRs.

The disordered N-terminal tail of SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid protein forms a dynamic complex with RNA

The SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid (N) protein is responsible for condensation of the viral genome. Characterizing the mechanisms controlling nucleic acid binding is a key step in understanding how condensation is realized. Here, we focus on the role of the RNA binding domain (RBD) and its flanking disordered N-terminal domain (NTD) tail, using single-molecule Förster Resonance Energy Transfer and coarse-grained simulations. We quantified contact site size and binding affinity for nucleic acids and concomitant conformational changes occurring in the disordered region. We found that the disordered NTD increases the affinity of the RBD for RNA by about 50-fold. Binding of both nonspecific and specific RNA results in a modulation of the tail configurations, which respond in an RNA length-dependent manner. Not only does the disordered NTD increase affinity for RNA, but mutations that occur in the Omicron variant modulate the interactions, indicating a functional role of the disordered tail. Finally, we found that the NTD-RBD preferentially interacts with single-stranded RNA and that the resulting protein:RNA complexes are flexible and dynamic. We speculate that this mechanism of interaction enables the Nucleocapsid protein to search the viral genome for and bind to high-affinity motifs.

Variant mutation in SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid enhances viral infection via altered genomic encapsidation

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants and their respective phenotypes represents an important set of tools to understand basic coronavirus biology as well as the public health implications of individual mutations in variants of concern. While mutations outside of Spike are not well studied, the entire viral genome is undergoing evolutionary selection, particularly the central disordered linker region of the nucleocapsid (N) protein. Here, we identify a mutation (G215C), characteristic of the Delta variant, that introduces a novel cysteine into this linker domain, which results in the formation of a disulfide bond and a stable N-N dimer. Using reverse genetics, we determined that this cysteine residue is necessary and sufficient for stable dimer formation in a WA1 SARS-CoV-2 background, where it results in significantly increased viral growth both in vitro and in vivo. Finally, we demonstrate that the N:G215C virus packages more nucleocapsid per virion and that individual virions are larger, with elongated morphologies.

Incipient functional SARS-CoV-2 diversification identified through neural network haplotype maps

Since its introduction in the human population, SARS-CoV-2 has evolved into multiple clades, but the events in its intrahost diversification are not well understood. Here, we compare three-dimensional (3D) self-organized neural haplotype maps (SOMs) of SARS-CoV-2 from thirty individual nasopharyngeal diagnostic samples obtained within a 19-day interval in Madrid (Spain), at the time of transition between clades 19 and 20. SOMs have been trained with the haplotype repertoire present in the mutant spectra of the nsp12- and spike (S)-coding regions. Each SOM consisted of a dominant neuron (displaying the maximum frequency), surrounded by a low-frequency neuron cloud. The sequence of the master (dominant) neuron was either identical to that of the reference Wuhan-Hu-1 genome or differed from it at one nucleotide position. Six different deviant haplotype sequences were identified among the master neurons. Some of the substitutions in the neural clouds affected critical sites of the nsp12-nsp8-nsp7 polymerase complex and resulted in altered kinetics of RNA synthesis in an in vitro primer extension assay. Thus, the analysis has identified mutations that are relevant to modification of viral RNA synthesis, present in the mutant clouds of SARS-CoV-2 quasispecies. These mutations most likely occurred during intrahost diversification in several COVID-19 patients, during an initial stage of the pandemic, and within a brief time period.

DNA-based assay for calorimetric determination of protein concentrations in pure or mixed solutions

It was recently reported that values of the transition heat capacities, as measured by differential scanning calorimetry, for two globular proteins and a short DNA hairpin in NaCl buffer are essentially equivalent, at equal concentrations (mg/mL). To validate the broad applicability of this phenomenon, additional evidence for this equivalence is presented that reveals it does not depend on DNA sequence, buffer salt, or transition temperature (Tm). Based on the equivalence of transition heat capacities, a calorimetric method was devised to determine protein concentrations in pure and complex solutions. The scheme uses direct comparisons between the thermodynamic stability of a short DNA hairpin standard of known concentration, and thermodynamic stability of protein solutions of unknown concentrations. Sequences of two DNA hairpins were designed to confer a near 20°C difference in their Tm values. In all cases, evaluated protein concentrations determined from the DNA standard curves agreed with the UV-Vis concentration for monomeric proteins. For multimeric proteins evaluated concentrations were greater than determined by UV-Vis suggesting the calorimetric approach can also be an indicator of molecular stoichiometry.

Genetic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 virus variants observed upon three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine between February 2021-January 2022

The aim

of our study was to identify and characterize the SARS-CoV-2 variants in COVID-19 patients' samples collected from different regions of Ukraine to determine the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetics and COVID-19 epidemiology.

Patients and methods

Samples were collected from COVID-19 patients during 2021 and the beginning of 2022 (401 patients). The SARS-CoV-2 genotyping was performed by parallel whole genome sequencing.

Results

The obtained SARS-CoV-2 genotypes showed that three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine were represented by three main variants of concern (VOC), named Alpha, Delta and Omicron; each VOC successfully replaced the earlier variant. The VOC Alpha strain was presented by one B.1.1.7 lineage, while VOC Delta showed a spectrum of 25 lineages that had different prevalence in 19 investigated regions of Ukraine. The VOC Omicron in the first half of the pandemic was represented by 13 lines that belonged to two different clades representing B.1 and B.2 Omicron strains. Each of the three epidemic waves (VOC Alpha, Delta, and Omicron) demonstrated their own course of disease, associated with genetic changes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. The observed epidemiological features are associated with the genetic characteristics of the different VOCs, such as point mutations, deletions and insertions in the viral genome. A phylogenetic and transmission analysis showed the different mutation rates; there were multiple virus sources with a limited distribution between regions.

Conclusions

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 virus and high levels of morbidity due to COVID-19 are still registered in the world. Observed multiple virus sourses with the limited distribution between regions indicates the high efficiency of the anti-epidemic policy pursued by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine to prevent the spread of the epidemic, despite the low level of vaccination of the Ukrainian population.

Epitopes recognition of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid RNA binding domain by human monoclonal antibodies

Coronavirus nucleocapsid protein (NP) of SARS-CoV-2 plays a central role in many functions important for virus proliferation including packaging and protecting genomic RNA. The protein shares sequence, structure, and architecture with nucleocapsid proteins from betacoronaviruses. The N-terminal domain (NPRBD) binds RNA and the C-terminal domain is responsible for dimerization. After infection, NP is highly expressed and triggers robust host immune response. The anti-NP antibodies are not protective and not neutralizing but can effectively detect viral proliferation soon after infection. Two structures of SARS-CoV-2 NPRBD were determined providing a continuous model from residue 48 to 173, including RNA binding region and key epitopes. Five structures of NPRBD complexes with human mAbs were isolated using an antigen-bait sorting. Complexes revealed a distinct complement-determining regions and unique sets of epitope recognition. This may assist in the early detection of pathogens and designing peptide-based vaccines. Mutations that significantly increase viral load were mapped on developed, full length NP model, likely impacting interactions with host proteins and viral RNA.

Bioinformatic analysis of defective viral genomes in SARS-CoV-2 and its impact on population infection characteristics

DVGs (Defective Viral Genomes) are prevalent in RNA virus infections. In this investigation, we conducted an analysis of high-throughput sequencing data and observed widespread presence of DVGs in SARS-CoV-2. Comparative analysis between SARS-CoV-2 and diverse DNA viruses revealed heightened susceptibility to damage and increased sequencing sample heterogeneity within the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Whole-genome sequencing depth variability analysis exhibited a higher coefficient of variation for SARS-CoV-2, while DVG analysis indicated a significant proportion of recombination sites, signifying notable genome heterogeneity and suggesting that a large proportion of assembled virus particles contain incomplete RNA sequences. Moreover, our investigation explored the sequencing depth and DVG content differences among various strains. Our findings revealed that as the virus evolves, there is a notable increase in the proportion of intact genomes within virus particles, as evidenced by third-generation sequencing data. Specifically, the proportion of intact genome in the Omicron strain surpassed that of the Delta and Alpha strains. This observation effectively elucidates the heightened infectiousness of the Omicron strain compared to the Delta and Alpha strains. We also postulate that this improvement in completeness stems from enhanced virus assembly capacity, as the Omicron strain can promptly facilitate the binding of RNA and capsid protein, thereby reducing the exposure time of vulnerable virus RNA in the host environment and significantly mitigating its degradation. Finally, employing mathematical modeling, we simulated the impact of DVG effects under varying environmental factors on infection characteristics and population evolution. Our findings provide an explanation for the close association between symptom severity and the extent of virus invasion, as well as the substantial disparity in population infection characteristics caused by the same strain under distinct environmental conditions. This study presents a novel approach for future virus research and vaccine development.

Unraveling the genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Recombinants using mutational dynamics across the different lineages

Introduction

Recombination serves as a common strategy employed by RNA viruses for their genetic evolution. Extensive genomic surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic has reported SARS-CoV-2 Recombinant strains indicating recombination events during the viral evolution. This study introspects the phenomenon of genome recombination by tracing the footprint of prominent lineages of SARS-CoV-2 at different time points in the context of on-going evolution and emergence of Recombinants.

Method

Whole genome sequencing was carried out for 2,516 SARS-CoV-2 (discovery cohort) and 1,126 (validation cohort) using nasopharyngeal samples collected between the time period of March 2020 to August 2022, as part of the genomic surveillance program. The sequences were classified according to the different lineages of SARS-CoV-2 prevailing in India at respective time points.

Results

Mutational diversity and abundance evaluation across the 12 lineages identified 58 Recombinant sequences as harboring the least number of mutations (n = 111), with 14 low-frequency unique mutations with major chunk of mutations coming from the BA.2. The spontaneously/dynamically increasing and decreasing trends of mutations highlight the loss of mutations in the Recombinants that were associated with the SARS-CoV-2 replication efficiency, infectivity, and disease severity, rendering them functionally with low infectivity and pathogenicity. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis revealed that mutations comprising the LD blocks of BA.1, BA.2, and Recombinants were found as minor alleles or as low-frequency alleles in the LD blocks from the previous SARS-CoV-2 variant samples, especially Pre-VOC. Moreover, a dissipation in the size of LD blocks as well as LD decay along with a high negative regression coefficient (R squared) value was demonstrated in the Omicron and BA.1 and BA.2 lineages, which corroborated with the breakpoint analysis.

Conclusion

Together, the findings help to understand the evolution and emergence of Recombinants after the Omicron lineages, for sustenance and adaptability, to maintain the epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the host population already high in immunity levels.

Diversity of short linear interaction motifs in SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein

IMPORTANCE

Short linear motifs (SLiMs) are 3-10 amino acid long binding motifs in intrinsically disordered protein regions (IDRs) that serve as ubiquitous protein-protein interaction modules in eukaryotic cells. Through molecular mimicry, viruses hijack these sequence motifs to control host cellular processes. It is thought that the small size of SLiMs and the high mutation frequencies of viral IDRs allow rapid host adaptation. However, a salient characteristic of RNA viruses, due to high replication errors, is their obligate existence as mutant swarms. Taking advantage of the uniquely large genomic database of SARS-CoV-2, here, we analyze the role of sequence diversity in the presentation of SLiMs, focusing on the highly abundant, multi-functional nucleocapsid protein. We find that motif mimicry is a highly dynamic process that produces an abundance of motifs transiently present in subsets of mutant species. This diversity allows the virus to efficiently explore eukaryotic motifs and evolve the host-virus interface.

Overview of Nucleocapsid-Targeting Vaccines against COVID-19

The new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which emerged in late 2019, is a highly variable causative agent of COVID-19, a contagious respiratory disease with potentially severe complications. Vaccination is considered the most effective measure to prevent the spread and complications of this infection. Spike (S) protein-based vaccines were very successful in preventing COVID-19 caused by the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain; however, their efficacy was significantly reduced when coronavirus variants antigenically different from the original strain emerged in circulation. This is due to the high variability of this major viral antigen caused by escape from the immunity caused by the infection or vaccination with spike-targeting vaccines. The nucleocapsid protein (N) is a much more conserved SARS-CoV-2 antigen than the spike protein and has therefore attracted the attention of scientists as a promising target for broad-spectrum vaccine development. Here, we summarized the current data on various N-based COVID-19 vaccines that have been tested in animal challenge models or clinical trials. Despite the high conservatism of the N protein, escape mutations gradually occurring in the N sequence can affect its protective properties. During the three years of the pandemic, at least 12 mutations have arisen in the N sequence, affecting more than 40 known immunogenic T-cell epitopes, so the antigenicity of the N protein of recent SARS-CoV-2 variants may be altered. This fact should be taken into account as a limitation in the development of cross-reactive vaccines based on N-protein.

Assembly of SARS-CoV-2 ribonucleosomes by truncated N∗ variant of the nucleocapsid protein

The nucleocapsid (N) protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) compacts the RNA genome into viral ribonucleoprotein (vRNP) complexes within virions. Assembly of vRNPs is inhibited by phosphorylation of the N protein serine/arginine (SR) region. Several SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern carry N protein mutations that reduce phosphorylation and enhance the efficiency of viral packaging. Variants of the dominant B.1.1 viral lineage also encode a truncated N protein, termed N∗ or Δ(1-209), that mediates genome packaging despite lacking the N-terminal RNA-binding domain and SR region. Here, we use mass photometry and negative stain electron microscopy to show that purified Δ(1-209) and viral RNA assemble into vRNPs that are remarkably similar in size and shape to those formed with full-length N protein. We show that assembly of Δ(1-209) vRNPs requires the leucine-rich helix of the central disordered region and that this helix promotes N protein oligomerization. We also find that fusion of a phosphomimetic SR region to Δ(1-209) inhibits RNA binding and vRNP assembly. Our results provide new insights into the mechanisms by which RNA binding promotes N protein self-association and vRNP assembly, and how this process is modulated by phosphorylation.

Insights into the evolution of mutations in SARS-CoV-2 non-spike proteins

The COVID-19 pandemic has been driven by the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with mutations across all the viral proteins. Although mutations in the spike protein have received significant attention, understanding the prevalence and potential impact of mutations in other viral proteins is essential for comprehending the evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of approximately 14 million sequences of SARS-CoV-2 deposited in the GISAID database until December 2022 to identify prevalent mutations in the non-spike proteins at the global and country levels. Additionally, we evaluated the energetics of each mutation to better understand their impact on protein stability. While the consequences of many mutations remain unclear, we discuss potential structural and functional significance of some mutations. Our study highlights the ongoing evolutionary process of SARS-CoV-2 and underscores the importance of understanding changes in non-spike proteins.

Assembly reactions of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein with nucleic acid

The viral genome of SARS-CoV-2 is packaged by the nucleocapsid (N-) protein into ribonucleoprotein particles (RNPs), 38±10 of which are contained in each virion. Their architecture has remained unclear due to the pleomorphism of RNPs, the high flexibility of N-protein intrinsically disordered regions, and highly multivalent interactions between viral RNA and N-protein binding sites in both N-terminal (NTD) and C-terminal domain (CTD). Here we explore critical interaction motifs of RNPs by applying a combination of biophysical techniques to mutant proteins binding different nucleic acids in an in vitro assay for RNP formation, and by examining mutant proteins in a viral assembly assay. We find that nucleic acid-bound N-protein dimers oligomerize via a recently described protein-protein interface presented by a transient helix in its long disordered linker region between NTD and CTD. The resulting hexameric complexes are stabilized by multi-valent protein-nucleic acid interactions that establish crosslinks between dimeric subunits. Assemblies are stabilized by the dimeric CTD of N-protein offering more than one binding site for stem-loop RNA. Our study suggests a model for RNP assembly where N-protein scaffolding at high density on viral RNA is followed by cooperative multimerization through protein-protein interactions in the disordered linker.

Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Military and Civilian Personnel of an Air Force Airport during Three Pandemic Waves in Italy

We investigated SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating, from November 2020 to March 2022, among military and civilian personnel at an Air Force airport in Italy in order to classify viral isolates in a potential hotspot for virus spread. Positive samples were subjected to Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) of the whole viral genome and Sanger sequencing of the spike coding region. Phylogenetic analysis classified viral isolates and traced their evolutionary relationships. Clusters were identified using 70% cut-off. Sequencing methods yielded comparable results in terms of variant classification. In 2020 and 2021, we identified several variants, including B.1.258 (4/67), B.1.177 (9/67), Alpha (B.1.1.7, 9/67), Gamma (P.1.1, 4/67), and Delta (4/67). In 2022, only Omicron and its sub-lineage variants were observed (37/67). SARS-CoV-2 isolates were screened to detect naturally occurring resistance in genomic regions, the target of new therapies, comparing them to the Wuhan Hu-1 reference strain. Interestingly, 2/30 non-Omicron isolates carried the G15S 3CLpro substitution responsible for reduced susceptibility to protease inhibitors. On the other hand, Omicron isolates carried unusual substitutions A1803V, D1809N, and A949T on PLpro, and the D216N on 3CLpro. Finally, the P323L substitution on RdRp coding regions was not associated with the mutational pattern related to polymerase inhibitor resistance. This study highlights the importance of continuous genomic surveillance to monitor SARS-CoV-2 evolution in the general population, as well as in restricted communities.

Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 Genetic Variants in the Polish Armed Forces Using Whole Genome Sequencing Analysis

Military operations involve the global movement of personnel and equipment, increasing the risk of spreading infectious pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2. Given the continuous engagement of the Polish Armed Forces in overseas operations, an active surveillance program targeting Variants of Concern (VOC) of SARS-CoV-2 was implemented among military personnel. Screening using RT-qPCR tests was conducted on 1699 soldiers between November 2021 and May 2022. Of these, 84 SARS-CoV-2 positive samples met the criteria for whole genome sequencing analysis and variant identification. Whole genome sequencing was performed using two advanced next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies: sequencing by synthesis and nanopore sequencing. Our analysis revealed eleven SARS-CoV-2 lineages belonging to 21K, 21L, and 21J. The predominant lineage was BA.1.1 (57% of the samples), followed by BA.1 (23%) and BA.2 (6%). Notably, all identified lineages detected in post-deployment screening tests were classified as VOC and were already present in Poland, showing the effectiveness of the Military Sanitary Inspection measures in mitigating the COVID-19 spread. Pre-departure and post-mission screening and isolation successfully prevented SARS-CoV-2 VOC exportation and importation. Proactive measures are vital in minimizing the impact of COVID-19 in military settings, emphasizing the need for continued vigilance and response strategies.

Calorimetric analysis using DNA thermal stability to determine protein concentration

It was recently reported for two globular proteins and a short DNA hairpin in NaCl buffer that values of the transition heat capacities, Cp,DNA and Cp,PRO, for equal concentrations (mg/mL) of DNA and proteins, are essentially equivalent (differ by less than 1%). Additional evidence for this equivalence is presented that reveals this phenomenon does not depend on DNA sequence, buffer salt, or Tm. Sequences of two DNA hairpins were designed to confer a near 20°C difference in their Tm's. For the molecules, in NaCl and CsCl buffer the evaluated Cp,PRO and Cp,DNA were equivalent. Based on the equivalence of transition heat capacities, a calorimetric method was devised to determine protein concentrations in pure and complex solutions. The scheme uses direct comparisons between the thermodynamic stability of a short DNA hairpin standard of known concentration, and thermodynamic stability of protein solutions of unknown concentrations. In all cases, evaluated protein concentrations determined from the DNA standard curve agreed with the UV-Vis concentration for monomeric proteins. For samples of multimeric proteins, streptavidin (tetramer), Herpes Simplex Virus glycoprotein D (trimer/dimer), and a 16 base pair DNA duplex (dimer), evaluated concentrations were greater than determined by UV-Vis by factors of 3.94, 2.65, and 2.15, respectively.

Diversity of Short Linear Interaction Motifs in SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid Protein

Molecular mimicry of short linear interaction motifs has emerged as a key mechanism for viral proteins binding host domains and hijacking host cell processes. Here, we examine the role of RNA-virus sequence diversity in the dynamics of the virus-host interface, by analyzing the uniquely vast sequence record of viable SARS-CoV-2 species with focus on the multi-functional nucleocapsid protein. We observe the abundant presentation of motifs encoding several essential host protein interactions, alongside a majority of possibly non-functional and randomly occurring motif sequences absent in subsets of viable virus species. A large number of motifs emerge ex nihilo through transient mutations relative to the ancestral consensus sequence. The observed mutational landscape implies an accessible motif space that spans at least 25% of known eukaryotic motifs. This reveals motif mimicry as a highly dynamic process with the capacity to broadly explore host motifs, allowing the virus to rapidly evolve the virus-host interface.

Modular characterization of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein domain functions in nucleocapsid-like assembly

SARS-CoV-2 and its variants, with the Omicron subvariant XBB currently prevailing the global infections, continue to pose threats on public health worldwide. This non-segmented positive-stranded RNA virus encodes the multi-functional nucleocapsid protein (N) that plays key roles in viral infection, replication, genome packaging and budding. N protein consists of two structural domains, NTD and CTD, and three intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs) including the N_IDR, the serine/arginine rich motif (SR_IDR), and the C_IDR. Previous studies revealed functions of N protein in RNA binding, oligomerization, and liquid-liquid phase separation (LLPS), however, characterizations of individual domains and their dissected contributions to N protein functions remain incomplete. In particular, little is known about N protein assembly that may play essential roles in viral replication and genome packing. Here, we present a modular approach to dissect functional roles of individual domains in SARS-CoV-2 N protein that reveals inhibitory or augmented modulations of protein assembly and LLPS in the presence of viral RNAs. Intriguingly, full-length N protein (N_FL) assembles into ring-like architecture whereas the truncated SR_IDR-CTD-C_IDR (N_182-419) promotes filamentous assembly. Moreover, LLPS droplets of N_FL and N_182-419 are significantly enlarged in the presence of viral RNAs, and we observed filamentous structures in the N_182-419 droplets using correlative light and electron microscopy (CLEM), suggesting that the formation of LLPS droplets may promote higher-order assembly of N protein for transcription, replication and packaging. Together this study expands our understanding of the multiple functions of N protein in SARS-CoV-2.

The Mutational Landscape of SARS-CoV-2

Mutation research is crucial for detecting and treating SARS-CoV-2 and developing vaccines. Using over 5,300,000 sequences from SARS-CoV-2 genomes and custom Python programs, we analyzed the mutational landscape of SARS-CoV-2. Although almost every nucleotide in the SARS-CoV-2 genome has mutated at some time, the substantial differences in the frequency and regularity of mutations warrant further examination. C>U mutations are the most common. They are found in the largest number of variants, pangolin lineages, and countries, which indicates that they are a driving force behind the evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Not all SARS-CoV-2 genes have mutated in the same way. Fewer non-synonymous single nucleotide variations are found in genes that encode proteins with a critical role in virus replication than in genes with ancillary roles. Some genes, such as spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N), show more non-synonymous mutations than others. Although the prevalence of mutations in the target regions of COVID-19 diagnostic RT-qPCR tests is generally low, in some cases, such as for some primers that bind to the N gene, it is significant. Therefore, ongoing monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 mutations is crucial. The SARS-CoV-2 Mutation Portal provides access to a database of SARS-CoV-2 mutations.

The Host Adapted Fungal Pathogens of Pneumocystis Genus Utilize Genic Regional Centromeres

Centromeres are genomic regions that coordinate accurate chromosomal segregation during mitosis and meiosis. Yet, despite their essential function, centromeres evolve rapidly across eukaryotes. Centromeres are often the sites of chromosomal breaks which contribute to genome shuffling and promote speciation by inhibiting gene flow. How centromeres form in strongly host-adapted fungal pathogens has yet to be investigated. Here, we characterized the centromere structures in closely related species of mammalian-specific pathogens of the fungal phylum of Ascomycota. Methods allowing reliable continuous culture of Pneumocystis species do not currently exist, precluding genetic manipulation. CENP-A, a variant of histone H3, is the epigenetic marker that defines centromeres in most eukaryotes. Using heterologous complementation, we show that the Pneumocystis CENP-A ortholog is functionally equivalent to CENP-ACnp1 of Schizosaccharomyces pombe. Using organisms from a short-term in vitro culture or infected animal models and ChIP-seq, we identified centromeres in three Pneumocystis species that diverged ~100 million years ago. Each species has a unique short regional centromere (< 10kb) flanked by heterochromatin in 16-17 monocentric chromosomes. They span active genes and lack conserved DNA sequence motifs and repeats. CENP-C, a scaffold protein that links the inner centromere to the kinetochore appears dispensable in one species, suggesting a kinetochore rewiring. Despite the loss of DNA methyltransferases, 5-methylcytosine DNA methylation occurs in these species, though not related to centromere function. These features suggest an epigenetic specification of centromere function.

A conserved oligomerization domain in the disordered linker of coronavirus nucleocapsid proteins

The nucleocapsid (N-)protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has a key role in viral assembly and scaffolding of the viral RNA. It promotes liquid-liquid phase separation (LLPS), forming dense droplets that support the assembly of ribonucleoprotein particles with as-of-yet unknown macromolecular architecture. Combining biophysical experiments, molecular dynamics simulations, and analysis of the mutational landscape, we describe a heretofore unknown oligomerization site that contributes to LLPS, is required for the assembly of higher-order protein-nucleic acid complexes, and is coupled to large-scale conformational changes of N-protein upon nucleic acid binding. The self-association interface is located in a leucine-rich sequence of the intrinsically disordered linker between N-protein folded domains and formed by transient helices assembling into trimeric coiled-coils. Critical residues stabilizing hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions between adjacent helices are highly protected against mutations in viable SARS-CoV-2 genomes, and the oligomerization motif is conserved across related coronaviruses, thus presenting a target for antiviral therapeutics.

Critical Calibration of Mass Photometry for Higher-Mass Samples Such as Adeno-Associated Virus Vectors

Mass photometry (MP) is a label-free, single-molecule technique that can determine molecular mass distribution with very low sample consumption in a short time. Because of the established experimental instrument and analytical software, MP measurements may be readily obtained; thus, the application of MP is expanding, especially in the fields of bioscience and biotechnology. However, because the MP data quality is strongly focus-dependent, optical settings must be intrinsically strict. In this study, we report the importance of the critical calibration of the mass photometer, which is required for the accurate estimation of high-molecular mass samples, such as adeno-associated virus vectors. Additionally, a method for optimizing the instrument settings, including the calibration of the stage, is presented.

Molecular Characterization and Cluster Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Isolates in Kahramanmaraş City, Turkey: The Delta VOC Wave within One Month

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has seriously affected the population in Turkey. Since the beginning, phylogenetic analysis has been necessary to monitor public health measures against COVID-19 disease. In any case, the analysis of spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) gene mutations was crucial in determining their potential impact on viral spread. We screened S and N regions to detect usual and unusual substitutions, whilst also investigating the clusters among a patient cohort resident in Kahramanmaraş city, in a restricted time span. Sequences were obtained by Sanger methods and genotyped by the PANGO Lineage tool. Amino acid substitutions were annotated comparing newly generated sequences to the NC_045512.2 reference sequence. Clusters were defined using phylogenetic analysis with a 70% cut-off. All sequences were classified as Delta. Eight isolates carried unusual mutations on the S protein, some of them located in the S2 key domain. One isolate displayed the unusual L139S on the N protein, while few isolates carried the T24I and A359S N substitutions able to destabilize the protein. Phylogeny identified nine monophyletic clusters. This study provided additional information about SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology in Turkey, suggesting local transmission of infection in the city by several transmission routes, and highlighting the necessity to improve the power of sequencing worldwide.

More or less deadly? A mathematical model that predicts SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary direction

SARS-CoV-2 has caused tremendous deaths globally. It is of great value to predict the evolutionary direction of SARS-CoV-2. In this paper, we proposed a novel mathematical model that could predict the evolutionary trend of SARS-CoV-2. We focus on the mutational effects on viral assembly capacity. A robust coarse-grained mathematical model is constructed to simulate the virus dynamics in the host body. Both virulence and transmissibility can be quantified in this model. A delicate equilibrium point that optimizes the transmissibility can be numerically obtained. Based on this model, the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 might further decrease, accompanied by an enhancement of transmissibility. However, this trend is not continuous; its virulence will not disappear but remains at a relatively stable range. A virus assembly model which simulates the virus packing process is also proposed. It can be explained why a few mutations would lead to a significant divergence in clinical performance, both in the overall particle formation quantity and virulence. This research provides a novel mathematical attempt to elucidate the evolutionary driving force in RNA virus evolution.

The impact of AlphaFold2 on experimental structure solution

AlphaFold2 is a machine-learning based program that predicts a protein structure based on the amino acid sequence. In this article, we report on the current usages of this new tool and give examples from our work in the Coronavirus Structural Task Force. With its unprecedented accuracy, it can be utilized for the design of expression constructs, de novo protein design and the interpretation of Cryo-EM data with an atomic model. However, these methods are limited by their training data and are of limited use to predict conformational variability and fold flexibility; they also lack co-factors, post-translational modifications and multimeric complexes with oligonucleotides. They also are not always perfect in terms of chemical geometry. Nevertheless, machine learning-based fold prediction is a game changer for structural bioinformatics and experimentalists alike, with exciting developments ahead.

As the virus evolves, so too must we: a drug developer's perspective : We need a new paradigm in searching for next-generation countermeasures

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has been raging globally for over 2 years with no end in sight. It has become clear that this virus possesses enormous genetic plasticity, and it will not be eradicated. Under increasing selective pressure from population immunity, the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has driven it towards greater infectivity, and evasion of humoral and cellular immunity. Omicron and its expanding army of subvariants and recombinants have impaired vaccine protection and made most antibody drugs obsolete. Antiviral drugs, though presently effective, may select for more resistant strains over time. It may be inevitable, then, that future SARS-CoV-2 variants will be immune to our current virus-directed countermeasures. Thus, to gain control over the virus, we need to adopt a new paradigm in searching for next-generation countermeasures and develop host-directed therapeutics (HDTx) and host-directed antivirals (HDA). Different from the virus-directed countermeasures, HDTx and HDA may offer variant agnostic treatment to reduce the risk and severity of infections. In addition, they may exert more uniform effects against the genetically diverse SARS-CoV-2 quasispecies, thereby diminishing the risk of selecting resistant variants. Some promising HDTx and HDA approaches are summarized here.

Predicting COVID-19 disease severity from SARS-CoV-2 spike protein sequence by mixed effects machine learning

Epidemiological studies show that COVID-19 variants-of-concern, like Delta and Omicron, pose different risks for severe disease, but they typically lack sequence-level information for the virus. Studies which do obtain viral genome sequences are generally limited in time, location, and population scope. Retrospective meta-analyses require time-consuming data extraction from heterogeneous formats and are limited to publicly available reports. Fortuitously, a subset of GISAID, the global SARS-CoV-2 sequence repository, includes "patient status" metadata that can indicate whether a sequence record is associated with mild or severe disease. While GISAID lacks data on comorbidities relevant to severity, such as obesity and chronic disease, it does include metadata for age and sex to use as additional attributes in modeling. With these caveats, previous efforts have demonstrated that genotype-patient status models can be fit to GISAID data, particularly when country-of-origin is used as an additional feature. But are these models robust and biologically meaningful? This paper shows that, in fact, temporal and geographic biases in sequences submitted to GISAID, as well as the evolving pandemic response, particularly reduction in severe disease due to vaccination, create complex issues for model development and interpretation. This paper poses a potential solution: efficient mixed effects machine learning using GPBoost, treating country as a random effect group. Training and validation using temporally split GISAID data and emerging Omicron variants demonstrates that GPBoost models are more predictive of the impact of spike protein mutations on patient outcomes than fixed effect XGBoost, LightGBM, random forests, and elastic net logistic regression models.

Dominance of Three Sublineages of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Mexico

In this study, we analyzed the sequences of SARS-CoV-2 isolates of the Delta variant in Mexico, which has completely replaced other previously circulating variants in the country due to its transmission advantage. Among all the Delta sublineages that were detected, 81.5 % were classified as AY.20, AY.26, and AY.100. According to publicly available data, these only reached a world prevalence of less than 1%, suggesting a possible Mexican origin. The signature mutations of these sublineages are described herein, and phylogenetic analyses and haplotype networks are used to track their spread across the country. Other frequently detected sublineages include AY.3, AY.62, AY.103, and AY.113. Over time, the main sublineages showed different geographical distributions, with AY.20 predominant in Central Mexico, AY.26 in the North, and AY.100 in the Northwest and South/Southeast. This work describes the circulation, from May to November 2021, of the primary sublineages of the Delta variant associated with the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico and highlights the importance of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance for the timely identification of emerging variants that may impact public health.