Identification of a novel SARS-CoV-2 P.1 sub-lineage in Brazil provides new insights about the mechanisms of emergence of variants of concern

Does viral circulation in slums have a global impact? The lesson learned from SARS-CoV-2 circulation in Complexo de favelas da Maré, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Because of growing inequalities, more than one-third of the worldwide population is expected to live in slums by 2050. Although slum dwellers are at increased risk of infectious diseases, this population may have been overlooked with respect to the sustainability of virus evolution. In this study, we aimed to analyze the genetic diversity and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the Complexo de Favelas da Maré slum, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and assess its impact on the global spread of the virus. We found that this slum harbored multiple strains of SARS-CoV-2, and its amplification and genetic diversity connected with the global circulation from 2020 to 2022. Thus, enhancing surveillance in slums could be important for future epidemic/pandemic preparedness by connecting virus genetic diversity in this region with its circulation at divergent locations.

Tracking the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Nicaragua throughout the COVID-19 pandemic

The global circulation of SARS-CoV-2 has been extensively documented; however, the dynamics within Central America, particularly Nicaragua, remain underexplored. This study characterizes the genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in Nicaragua from March 2020 through December 2022, utilizing 1064 genomes obtained via next-generation sequencing. These sequences were selected nationwide and analyzed for variant classification, lineage predominance, and phylogenetic diversity. We employed both Illumina and Oxford Nanopore Technologies for all sequencing procedures. Results indicated a temporal and spatial shift in dominant lineages, initially from B.1 and A.2 in early 2020 to various Omicron subvariants toward the study's end. Significant lineage shifts correlated with changes in COVID-19 positivity rates, underscoring the epidemiological impact of variant dissemination. Comparative analysis with regional data underscored the low diversity of circulating lineages in Nicaragua and their delayed introduction compared to other countries in the Central American region. The study also linked specific viral mutations with hospitalization rates, emphasizing the clinical relevance of genomic surveillance. This research advances the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 evolution in Nicaragua and provides valuable information regarding its genetic diversity for public health officials in Central America. We highlight the critical role of ongoing genomic surveillance in identifying emergent lineages and informing public health strategies.

SARS-CoV-2 pathophysiology and post-vaccination severity: a systematic review

Currently, COVID-19 is still striking after 4 years of prevalence, with millions of cases and thousands of fatalities being recorded every month. The virus can impact other major organ systems, including the gastrointestinal tract (GIT), cardiovascular, central nervous system, renal, and hepatobiliary systems. The resulting organ dysfunction from SARS-CoV-2 may be attributed to one or a combination of mechanisms, such as direct viral toxicity, disruptions in the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS), thrombosis, immune dysregulation, and ischemic injury due to vasculitis. SARS-CoV-2 vaccines effectively reduce the severity of the disease, hospitalizations, and mortality. As of October 2024, 13.58 billion vaccine doses have been administered, with an average of 6959 daily doses. Also, the boosters are given after the primary immunization in a homologous and heterologous manner. The vaccines imposed severe potential health side effects such as clotting or obstruction of blood vessels termed arterial or venous thrombosis, autoimmune damage of nerve cells (Guillain-Barré syndrome; GBS), intense activation of coagulation system (vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia), acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST), myocarditis, pericarditis, and glomerular disease. Overall, it is essential to highlight that the significant benefits of COVID-19 vaccination far outweigh the low risk of conditions. mRNA-based vaccine technology has emerged as a rapidly deployable vaccine candidate and a viable alternative to existing vaccines. It has a very low probability of adverse health effects, confirmed by data represented by Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses, Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), Yellow card approved under CDC, WHO.

Epidemiological and Clinical Insights into the Enterovirus D68 Upsurge in Europe 2021-2022 and Emergence of Novel B3-Derived Lineages, ENPEN Multicentre Study

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections are associated with severe respiratory disease and acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). The European Non-Polio Enterovirus Network (ENPEN) aimed to investigate the epidemiological and genetic characteristics of EV-D68 infections and its clinical impact during the fall-winter season of 2021-2022. From 19 European countries, 58 institutes reported 10 481 (6.8%) EV-positive samples of which 1004 (9.6%) were identified as EV-D68 (including 852 respiratory samples). Clinical data were reported for 969 cases; 78.9% of infections were reported in children (0-5 years); and 37.9% of cases were hospitalized. Acute respiratory distress was commonly noted (93.1%) followed by fever (49.4%). Neurological problems were observed in 6.4% of cases including 6 diagnosed with AFM. Phylodynamic/Nextstrain and phylogenetic analyses based on 694 sequences showed the emergence of 2 novel B3-derived lineages, with no regional clustering. In conclusion, we describe a large-scale European EV-D68 upsurge with severe clinical impact and the emergence of B3-derived lineages.

Tracking the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Nicaragua throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic

The global circulation of SARS-CoV-2 has been extensively documented, yet the dynamics within Central America, particularly Nicaragua, remain underexplored. This study characterizes the genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in Nicaragua from March 2020 through December 2022, utilizing 1064 genomes obtained via next-generation sequencing. These sequences were selected nationwide and analyzed for variant classification, lineage predominance, and phylogenetic diversity. We employed both Illumina and Oxford Nanopore Technologies for all sequencing procedures. Results indicated a temporal and spatial shift in dominant lineages, initially from B.1 and A.2 in early 2020 to various Omicron subvariants towards the study's end. Significant lineage shifts correlated with changes in COVID-19 positivity rates, underscoring the epidemiological impact of variant dissemination. The comparative analysis with regional data underscored the low diversity of circulating lineages in Nicaragua and their delayed introduction compared to other countries in the Central American region. The study also linked specific viral mutations with hospitalization rates, emphasizing the clinical relevance of genomic surveillance. This research advances the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 evolution in Nicaragua and provide valuable information regarding its genetic diversity for public health officials in Central America. We highlight the critical role of ongoing genomic surveillance in identifying emergent lineages and informing public health strategies.

SARS-CoV-2 journey: from alpha variant to omicron and its sub-variants

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected hundreds of millions of individuals and caused more than six million deaths. The prolonged pandemic duration and the continual inter-individual transmissibility have contributed to the emergence of a wide variety of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Genomic surveillance and phylogenetic studies have shown that substantial mutations in crucial supersites of spike glycoprotein modulate the binding affinity of the evolved SARS-COV-2 lineages to ACE2 receptors and modify the binding of spike protein with neutralizing antibodies. The immunological spike mutations have been associated with differential transmissibility, infectivity, and therapeutic efficacy of the vaccines and the immunological therapies among the new variants. This review highlights the diverse genetic mutations assimilated in various SARS-CoV-2 variants. The implications of the acquired mutations related to viral transmission, infectivity, and COVID-19 severity are discussed. This review also addresses the effectiveness of human neutralizing antibodies induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection or immunization and the therapeutic antibodies against the ascended variants.

Genomic epidemiology and evolutionary analysis during XBB.1.16-predominant periods of SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant in Bangkok, Thailand: December 2022-August 2023

The growing occurrence of novel recombinants, such as XBB.1.16, has emerged and become predominant, raising concerns about the impact of genomic recombination on the evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study investigated the molecular epidemiological trends and evolution of the Omicron XBB.1.16 epidemic in Bangkok between December 2022 and August 2023. Partial spike and complete genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 samples collected from collaborating hospitals were performed. The analysis of 491 partial spike sequences identified 15 distinct lineages, with XBB.1.16 dominating the lineages beginning in March 2023. Phylogenetic analysis revealed at least four distinct XBB.1.16 lineages, suggesting multiple independent introductions into Bangkok. The estimated emergence of XBB.1.16 occurred approximately in January 2022, with an evolutionary rate of 0.79 × 10-3 substitutions per site per year. Monitoring the genomic epidemiology and evolution of XBB.1.16 is vital for the early detection of new strains or emerging variants, which may guide vaccine design and the inclusion of new vaccine strains.

Intense P.1 (Gamma) diversification followed by rapid Delta substitution in Southern Brazil: a SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiology study

The analyses of genetic traits, dispersion patterns and phylogenomics are essential for understanding the evolutionary forces driving SARS-CoV-2 viruses in these three years of COVID-19 pandemics. Brazil is one of the most affected countries in the world and not sufficient genomic studies have been performed. The emergence of P.1 lineage led to one of the most serious public health crises on record. Our study presents the genomic sequencing and characterization of 412 samples from Rio Grande do Sul state, in the Brazilian Southern region, during Gamma and Delta epidemic waves, in 2021. Additionally, molecular evolution tests were performed to identify positively selected sites in Brazil between 2020 and 2022, as well as offer some evolutionary perspective about the maintenance of multiple spike mutations in Omicron lineages. Genomic epidemiology analysis has indicated an intense P.1 (Gamma) diversification followed by rapid Delta substitution in Southern Brazil.

Detecting Episodic Evolution through Bayesian Inference of Molecular Clock Models

Molecular evolutionary rate variation is a key aspect of the evolution of many organisms that can be modeled using molecular clock models. For example, fixed local clocks revealed the role of episodic evolution in the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. Like all statistical models, however, the reliability of such inferences is contingent on an assessment of statistical evidence. We present a novel Bayesian phylogenetic approach for detecting episodic evolution. It consists of computing Bayes factors, as the ratio of posterior and prior odds of evolutionary rate increases, effectively quantifying support for the effect size. We conducted an extensive simulation study to illustrate the power of this method and benchmarked it to formal model comparison of a range of molecular clock models using (log) marginal likelihood estimation, and to inference under a random local clock model. Quantifying support for the effect size has higher sensitivity than formal model testing and is straight-forward to compute, because it only needs samples from the posterior and prior distribution. However, formal model testing has the advantage of accommodating a wide range molecular clock models. We also assessed the ability of an automated approach, known as the random local clock, where branches under episodic evolution may be detected without their a priori definition. In an empirical analysis of a data set of SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we find "very strong" evidence for episodic evolution. Our results provide guidelines and practical methods for Bayesian detection of episodic evolution, as well as avenues for further research into this phenomenon.

Real-Time Analysis of SARS-CoV-2-Induced Cytolysis Reveals Distinct Variant-Specific Replication Profiles

The ability of each new SARS-CoV-2 variant to evade host humoral immunity is the focus of intense research. Each variant may also harbor unique replication capabilities relevant for disease and transmission. Here, we demonstrate a new approach to assessing viral replication kinetics using real-time cell analysis (RTCA). Virus-induced cell death is measured in real time as changes in electrical impedance through cell monolayers while images are acquired at defined intervals via an onboard microscope and camera. Using this system, we quantified replication kinetics of five clinically important viral variants: WA1/2020 (ancestral), Delta, and Omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.4, and BA.5. Multiple measures proved useful in variant replication comparisons, including the elapsed time to, and the slope at, the maximum rate of cell death. Important findings include significantly weaker replication kinetics of BA.1 by all measures, while BA.5 harbored replication kinetics at or near ancestral levels, suggesting evolution to regain replicative capacity, and both an altered profile of cell killing and enhanced fusogenicity of the Delta variant. Together, these data show that RTCA is a robust method to assess replicative capacity of any given SARS-CoV-2 variant rapidly and quantitatively, which may be useful in assessment of newly emerging variants.

Phylodynamic of SARS-CoV-2 during the second wave of COVID-19 in Peru

At over 0.6% of the population, Peru has one of the highest SARS-CoV-2 mortality rate in the world. Much effort to sequence genomes has been done in this country since mid-2020. However, an adequate analysis of the dynamics of the variants of concern and interest (VOCIs) is missing. We investigated the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru with a focus on the second wave, which had the greatest case fatality rate. The second wave in Peru was dominated by Lambda and Gamma. Analysis of the origin of Lambda shows that it most likely emerged in Peru before the second wave (June-November, 2020). After its emergence it reached Argentina and Chile from Peru where it was locally transmitted. During the second wave in Peru, we identify the coexistence of two Lambda and three Gamma sublineages. Lambda sublineages emerged in the center of Peru whereas the Gamma sublineages more likely originated in the north-east and mid-east. Importantly, it is observed that the center of Peru played a prominent role in transmitting SARS-CoV-2 to other regions within Peru.

S:D614G and S:H655Y are gateway mutations that act epistatically to promote SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness

SARS-CoV-2 variants bearing complex combinations of mutations that confer increased transmissibility, COVID-19 severity, and immune escape, were first detected after S:D614G had gone to fixation, and likely originated during persistent infection of immunocompromised hosts. To test the hypothesis that S:D614G facilitated emergence of such variants, S:D614G was reverted to the ancestral sequence in the context of sequential Spike sequences from an immunocompromised individual, and within each of the major SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. In all cases, infectivity of the S:D614G revertants was severely compromised. The infectivity of atypical SARS-CoV-2 lineages that propagated in the absence of S:D614G was found to be dependent upon either S:Q613H or S:H655Y. Notably, Gamma and Omicron variants possess both S:D614G and S:H655Y, each of which contributed to infectivity of these variants. Among sarbecoviruses, S:Q613H, S:D614G, and S:H655Y are only detected in SARS-CoV-2, which is also distinguished by a polybasic S1/S2 cleavage site. Genetic and biochemical experiments here showed that S:Q613H, S:D614G, and S:H655Y each stabilize Spike on virions, and that they are dispensable in the absence of S1/S2 cleavage, consistent with selection of these mutations by the S1/S2 cleavage site. CryoEM revealed that either S:D614G or S:H655Y shift the Spike receptor binding domain (RBD) towards the open conformation required for ACE2-binding and therefore on pathway for infection. Consistent with this, an smFRET reporter for RBD conformation showed that both S:D614G and S:H655Y spontaneously adopt the conformation that ACE2 induces in the parental Spike. Data from these orthogonal experiments demonstrate that S:D614G and S:H655Y are convergent adaptations to the polybasic S1/S2 cleavage site which stabilize S1 on the virion in the open RBD conformation and act epistatically to promote the fitness of variants bearing complex combinations of clinically significant mutations.

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused millions of deaths and substantial morbidity worldwide. Intense scientific effort to understand the biology of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in daunting numbers of genomic sequences. We witnessed evolutionary events that could mostly be inferred indirectly before, such as the emergence of variants with distinct phenotypes, for example transmissibility, severity and immune evasion. This Review explores the mechanisms that generate genetic variation in SARS-CoV-2, underlying the within-host and population-level processes that underpin these events. We examine the selective forces that likely drove the evolution of higher transmissibility and, in some cases, higher severity during the first year of the pandemic and the role of antigenic evolution during the second and third years, together with the implications of immune escape and reinfections, and the increasing evidence for and potential relevance of recombination. In order to understand how major lineages, such as variants of concern (VOCs), are generated, we contrast the evidence for the chronic infection model underlying the emergence of VOCs with the possibility of an animal reservoir playing a role in SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and conclude that the former is more likely. We evaluate uncertainties and outline scenarios for the possible future evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2.

Accelerated SARS-CoV-2 intrahost evolution leading to distinct genotypes during chronic infection

The chronic infection hypothesis for novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant emergence is increasingly gaining credence following the appearance of Omicron. Here, we investigate intrahost evolution and genetic diversity of lineage B.1.517 during a SARS-CoV-2 chronic infection lasting for 471 days (and still ongoing) with consistently recovered infectious virus and high viral genome copies. During the infection, we find an accelerated virus evolutionary rate translating to 35 nucleotide substitutions per year, approximately 2-fold higher than the global SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary rate. This intrahost evolution results in the emergence and persistence of at least three genetically distinct genotypes, suggesting the establishment of spatially structured viral populations continually reseeding different genotypes into the nasopharynx. Finally, we track the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity to identify advantageous mutations and highlight hallmark changes for chronic infection. Our findings demonstrate that untreated chronic infections accelerate SARS-CoV-2 evolution, providing an opportunity for the emergence of genetically divergent variants.

Coordinated evolution at amino acid sites of SARS-CoV-2 spike

SARS-CoV-2 has adapted in a stepwise manner, with multiple beneficial mutations accumulating in a rapid succession at origins of VOCs, and the reasons for this are unclear. Here, we searched for coordinated evolution of amino acid sites in the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. Specifically, we searched for concordantly evolving site pairs (CSPs) for which changes at one site were rapidly followed by changes at the other site in the same lineage. We detected 46 sites which formed 45 CSP. Sites in CSP were closer to each other in the protein structure than random pairs, indicating that concordant evolution has a functional basis. Notably, site pairs carrying lineage defining mutations of the four VOCs that circulated before May 2021 are enriched in CSPs. For the Alpha VOC, the enrichment is detected even if Alpha sequences are removed from analysis, indicating that VOC origin could have been facilitated by positive epistasis. Additionally, we detected nine discordantly evolving pairs of sites where mutations at one site unexpectedly rarely occurred on the background of a specific allele at another site, for example on the background of wild-type D at site 614 (four pairs) or derived Y at site 501 (three pairs). Our findings hint that positive epistasis between accumulating mutations could have delayed the assembly of advantageous combinations of mutations comprising at least some of the VOCs.

Key mutations in the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 affecting neutralization resistance and viral internalization

To control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, a variety of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines have been developed. However, the rapid mutations of SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein may reduce the protective efficacy of the existing vaccines which is mainly determined by the level of neutralizing antibodies targeting S. In this study, we screened prevalent S mutations and constructed 124 pseudotyped lentiviral particles carrying these mutants. We challenged these pseudoviruses with sera vaccinated by Sinovac CoronaVac and ZF2001 vaccines, two popular vaccines designed for the initial strain of SARS-CoV-2, and then systematically assessed the susceptivity of these SARS-CoV-2 variants to the immune sera of vaccines. As a result, 14 S mutants (H146Y, V320I + S477N, V382L, K444R, L455F + S477N, L452M + F486L, F486L, Y508H, P521R, A626S, S477N + S698L, A701V, S477N + T778I, E1144Q) were found to be significantly resistant to neutralization, indicating reduced protective efficacy of the vaccines against these SARS-CoV-2 variants. In addition, F486L and Y508H significantly enhanced the utilization of human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, suggesting a potentially elevated infectivity of these two mutants. In conclusion, our results show that some prevalent S mutations of SARS-CoV-2 reduced the protective efficacy of current vaccines and enhance the infectivity of the virus, indicating the necessity of vaccine renewal and providing direction for the development of new vaccines.

Monitoring the Establishment of VOC Gamma in Minas Gerais, Brazil: A Retrospective Epidemiological and Genomic Surveillance Study

Since its first identification in Brazil, the variant of concern (VOC) Gamma has been associated with increased infection and transmission rates, hospitalizations, and deaths. Minas Gerais (MG), the second-largest populated Brazilian state with more than 20 million inhabitants, observed a peak of cases and deaths in March-April 2021. We conducted a surveillance study in 1240 COVID-19-positive samples from 305 municipalities distributed across MG's 28 Regional Health Units (RHU) between 1 March to 27 April 2021. The most common variant was the VOC Gamma (71.2%), followed by the variant of interest (VOI) zeta (12.4%) and VOC alpha (9.6%). Although the predominance of Gamma was found in most of the RHUs, clusters of Zeta and Alpha variants were observed. One Alpha-clustered RHU has a history of high human mobility from countries with Alpha predominance. Other less frequent lineages, such as P.4, P.5, and P.7, were also identified. With our genomic characterization approach, we estimated the introduction of Gamma on 7 January 2021, at RHU Belo Horizonte. Differences in mortality between the Zeta, Gamma and Alpha variants were not observed. We reinforce the importance of vaccination programs to prevent severe cases and deaths during transmission peaks.

SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Surveillance in Brazil: A Systematic Review with Scientometric Analysis

Several studies have monitored the SARS-CoV-2 variants in Brazil throughout the pandemic. Here, we systematically reviewed and conducted a scientometric analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance studies using Brazilian samples. A Pubmed database search on October 2022 returned 492 articles, of which 106 were included. Ninety-six different strains were reported, with variant of concern (VOC) gamma (n = 35,398), VOC delta (n = 15,780), and the variant of interest zeta (n = 1983) being the most common. The top three states with the most samples in the published articles were São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais. Whereas the first year of the pandemic presented primary circulation of B.1.1.28 and B.1.1.33 variants, consecutive replacements were observed between them and VOI zeta, VOC gamma, VOC delta, and VOC omicron. VOI mu, VOI lambda, VOC alpha, and VOC beta were also detected but failed to reach significant circulation. Co-infection, re-infection, and vaccine breakthrough reports were found. Article co-citation differed from the co-authorship structure. Despite the limitations, we expect to give an overview of Brazil's genomic surveillance studies and contribute to future research execution.

Evolution of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Therapeutic Antibodies

Since the first COVID-19 reports back in December of 2019, this viral infection caused by SARS-CoV-2 has claimed millions of lives. To control the COVID-19 pandemic, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or European Agency of Medicines (EMA) have granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to nine therapeutic antibodies. Nonetheless, the natural evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has generated numerous variants of concern (VOCs) that have challenged the efficacy of the EUA antibodies. Here, we review the most relevant characteristics of these therapeutic antibodies, including timeline of approval, neutralization profile against the VOCs, selection methods of their variable regions, somatic mutations, HCDR3 and LCDR3 features, isotype, Fc modifications used in the therapeutic format, and epitope recognized on the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2. One of the conclusions of the review is that the EUA therapeutic antibodies that still retain efficacy against new VOCs bind an epitope formed by conserved residues that seem to be evolutionarily conserved as thus, critical for the RBD:hACE-2 interaction. The information reviewed here should help to design new and more efficacious antibodies to prevent and/or treat COVID-19, as well as other infectious diseases.

The origins and molecular evolution of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in the UK

The first SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) to be designated was lineage B.1.1.7, later labelled by the World Health Organization as Alpha. Originating in early autumn but discovered in December 2020, it spread rapidly and caused large waves of infections worldwide. The Alpha variant is notable for being defined by a long ancestral phylogenetic branch with an increased evolutionary rate, along which only two sequences have been sampled. Alpha genomes comprise a well-supported monophyletic clade within which the evolutionary rate is typical of SARS-CoV-2. The Alpha epidemic continued to grow despite the continued restrictions on social mixing across the UK and the imposition of new restrictions, in particular, the English national lockdown in November 2020. While these interventions succeeded in reducing the absolute number of cases, the impact of these non-pharmaceutical interventions was predominantly to drive the decline of the SARS-CoV-2 lineages that preceded Alpha. We investigate the only two sampled sequences that fall on the branch ancestral to Alpha. We find that one is likely to be a true intermediate sequence, providing information about the order of mutational events that led to Alpha. We explore alternate hypotheses that can explain how Alpha acquired a large number of mutations yet remained largely unobserved in a region of high genomic surveillance: an under-sampled geographical location, a non-human animal population, or a chronically infected individual. We conclude that the latter provides the best explanation of the observed behaviour and dynamics of the variant, although the individual need not be immunocompromised, as persistently infected immunocompetent hosts also display a higher within-host rate of evolution. Finally, we compare the ancestral branches and mutation profiles of other VOCs and find that Delta appears to be an outlier both in terms of the genomic locations of its defining mutations and a lack of the rapid evolutionary rate on its ancestral branch. As new variants, such as Omicron, continue to evolve (potentially through similar mechanisms), it remains important to investigate the origins of other variants to identify ways to potentially disrupt their evolution and emergence.

Heterologous immunity induced by 1st generation COVID-19 vaccines and its role in developing a pan-coronavirus vaccine

Severe acute respiratory syndrome virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative infectious agent of the COVID-19 pandemic, has led to multiple (4-6) waves of infections worldwide during the past two years. The development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 has led to successful mass immunizations worldwide, mitigating the worldwide mortality due the pandemic to a great extent. Yet the evolution of new variants highlights a need to develop a universal vaccine which can prevent infections from all virulent SARS-CoV-2. Most of the current first generation COVID-19 vaccines are based on the Spike protein from the original Wuhan-hu-1 virus strain. It is encouraging that they still protect from serious illnesses, hospitalizations and mortality against a number of mutated viral strains, to varying degrees. Understanding the mechanisms by which these vaccines provide heterologous protection against multiple highly mutated variants can reveal strategies to develop a universal vaccine. In addition, many unexposed individuals have been found to harbor T cells that are cross-reactive against SARS-CoV-2 antigens, with a possible protective role. In this review, we will discuss various aspects of natural or vaccine-induced heterologous (cross-reactive) adaptive immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses, and their role in achieving the concept of a pan-coronavirus vaccine.

Accelerated SARS-CoV-2 intrahost evolution leading to distinct genotypes during chronic infection

The chronic infection hypothesis for novel SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence is increasingly gaining credence following the appearance of Omicron. Here we investigate intrahost evolution and genetic diversity of lineage B.1.517 during a SARS-CoV-2 chronic infection lasting for 471 days (and still ongoing) with consistently recovered infectious virus and high viral loads. During the infection, we found an accelerated virus evolutionary rate translating to 35 nucleotide substitutions per year, approximately two-fold higher than the global SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary rate. This intrahost evolution led to the emergence and persistence of at least three genetically distinct genotypes suggesting the establishment of spatially structured viral populations continually reseeding different genotypes into the nasopharynx. Finally, using unique molecular indexes for accurate intrahost viral sequencing, we tracked the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity to identify advantageous mutations and highlight hallmark changes for chronic infection. Our findings demonstrate that untreated chronic infections accelerate SARS-CoV-2 evolution, ultimately providing opportunity for the emergence of genetically divergent and potentially highly transmissible variants as seen with Delta and Omicron.

The Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern Is Driven by Acceleration of the Substitution Rate

The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has seen an unprecedented amount of rapidly generated genome data. These data have revealed the emergence of lineages with mutations associated to transmissibility and antigenicity, known as variants of concern (VOCs). A striking aspect of VOCs is that many of them involve an unusually large number of defining mutations. Current phylogenetic estimates of the substitution rate of SARS-CoV-2 suggest that its genome accrues around two mutations per month. However, VOCs can have 15 or more defining mutations and it is hypothesized that they emerged over the course of a few months, implying that they must have evolved faster for a period of time. We analyzed genome sequence data from the GISAID database to assess whether the emergence of VOCs can be attributed to changes in the substitution rate of the virus and whether this pattern can be detected at a phylogenetic level using genome data. We fit a range of molecular clock models and assessed their statistical performance. Our analyses indicate that the emergence of VOCs is driven by an episodic increase in the substitution rate of around 4-fold the background phylogenetic rate estimate that may have lasted several weeks or months. These results underscore the importance of monitoring the molecular evolution of the virus as a means of understanding the circumstances under which VOCs may emerge.