Surveillance for HIV-1 incidence using tests for recent infection in resource-constrained countries

Facilitating Next-Generation Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Clinical Trials Using HIV Recent Infection Assays: A Consensus Statement from the Forum HIV Prevention Trial Design Project

Standard-of-care HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly efficacious, but uptake of and persistence on a daily oral pill is low in many settings. Evaluation of alternate PrEP products will require innovation to avoid the unpractically large sample sizes in noninferiority trials. We propose estimating HIV incidence in people not on PrEP as an external counterfactual to which on-PrEP incidence in trial subjects can be compared. HIV recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs), such as the limiting antigen avidity assay plus viral load used on specimens from untreated HIV positive people identified during screening, is one possible approach. Its feasibility is partly dependent on the sample size needed to ensure adequate power, which is impacted by RITA performance, the number of recent infections identified, the expected efficacy of the intervention, and other factors. Screening sample sizes to support detection of an 80% reduction in incidence for 3 key populations are more modest, and comparable to the number of participants in recent phase III PrEP trials. Sample sizes would be significantly larger in populations with lower incidence, where the false recency rate is higher or if PrEP efficacy is expected to be lower. Our proposed counterfactual approach appears to be feasible, offers high statistical power, and is nearly contemporaneous with the on-PrEP population. It will be important to monitor the performance of this approach during new product development for HIV prevention. If successful, it could be a model for preventive HIV vaccines and prevention of other infectious diseases.

High HIV incidence among young women in South Africa: Data from a large prospective study

Introduction

South Africa has the highest national burden of HIV globally. Understanding drivers of HIV acquisition in recently completed, prospective studies in which HIV was an endpoint may help inform the strategy and investments in national HIV prevention efforts and guide the design of future HIV prevention trials. We assessed HIV incidence and correlates of incidence among women enrolled in ECHO (Evidence for Contraceptive Options and HIV Outcomes), a large, open-label randomized clinical trial that compared three highly effective. reversible methods of contraception and rates of HIV acquisition.

Methods

During December 2015 to October 2018, ECHO followed sexually active, HIV-seronegative women, aged 16–35 years, seeking contraceptive services and willing to be randomized to one of three contraceptive methods (intramuscular depot medroxyprogesterone acetate, copper intrauterine device, or levonorgestrel implant) for 12–18 months at nine sites in South Africa. HIV incidence based on prospectively observed HIV seroconversion events. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to define baseline cofactors related to incident HIV infection.

Results

5768 women were enrolled and contributed 7647 woman-years of follow-up. The median age was 23 years and 62.5% were ≤24 years. A total of 345 incident HIV infections occurred, an incidence of 4.51 per 100 woman-years (95%CI 4.05–5.01). Incidence was >3 per 100 woman-years at all sites. Age ≤24 years, baseline infection with sexually transmitted infections, BMI≤30, and having new or multiple partners in the three months prior to enrollment were associated with incident HIV.

Conclusions

HIV incidence was high among South African women seeking contraceptive services. Integration of diagnostic management of sexually transmitted infections alongside delivery of HIV prevention options in health facilities providing contraception services are needed to mitigate ongoing risks of HIV acquisition for this vulnerable population.

Clinical trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02550067 was the main Clinical Trial from which this secondary, non-randomized / observational analysis was derived with data limited to just South African sites.

Field Validation of Limiting-Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunoassay to Estimate HIV-1 Incidence in Cross-Sectional Survey in Swaziland

Reliable and accurate laboratory assays to detect recent HIV-1 infection have potential as simple and practical methods of estimating HIV-1 incidence in cross-sectional surveys. This study describes validation of the limiting-antigen (LAg) avidity enzyme immunoassay (EIA) in a cross-sectional national survey, conducted in Swaziland, comparing it to prospective follow-up incidence. As part of the Swaziland HIV-1 Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS), 18,172 individuals underwent counseling and HIV rapid testing in a household-based, population survey conducted from December 2010 to June 2011. Plasma samples from HIV-positive persons were classified as recent infections using an incidence testing algorithm with LAg-Avidity EIA (normalized optical density ≤1.5) followed by viral load (VL ≥1,000 copies/mL). All HIV-seronegative samples were tested for acute HIV-1 infection by nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) pooling. HIV-seronegative individuals who consented to follow-up were retested ∼6 months later to detect observed HIV-1 seroconversion. HIV-1 incidence estimates based on LAg+VL and NAAT were calculated using assay-specific parameters and were compared with prospective incidence estimate. A total of 5,803 (31.9%) of 18,172 survey participants tested HIV seropositive; of these 5,683 (97.9%) were further tested with LAg+VL algorithm. The weighted annualized incidence from the longitudinal cohort study was 2.4% (95% confidence interval 2.0-2.7). Based on cross-sectional testing of HIV positives with LAg+VL algorithm, overall weighted annualized HIV-1 incidence was 2.5% (2.0-3.0), whereas NAAT-based incidence was of 2.6%. In addition, LAg-based incidence in men (1.8%; 1.2-2.5) and women (3.2%; 2.4-3.9) were similar to estimates based on observed incidence (men = 1.7%, women = 3.1%). Changes in HIV-1 incidence with age in men and women further validate plausibility of the algorithm. These results demonstrate that the LAg EIA, in a serial algorithm with VL, is a cost-effective tool to estimate HIV-1 incidence in cross-sectional surveys.

HIV incidence and predictors of inconsistent condom use among adult men enrolled into an HIV vaccine preparedness study, Rustenburg, South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Understanding HIV incidence and risk behaviour among populations being considered for HIV vaccine studies is necessary for the appropriate design of trials.

METHODS

Between May 2012 and June 2015, we recruited men aged 18-49 years from urban and peri-urban areas of Rustenburg, a mining town in the North West Province, South Africa. Men who reported HIV-risk behaviour were followed for nine to 12 months to determine HIV incidence and factors associated with condom use.

RESULTS

A total of 400 HIV uninfected men were enrolled; 366 (91.5%) had at least one follow-up visit and were included in the analysis; 47.6% were under 25 years of age. HIV incidence was 1.9 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 0.79-4.56). Among heterosexual men (N = 339), 80.8% reported having vaginal intercourse with multiple partners in the past three months, among whom 74.1% reported inconsistent condom use. Sixty-eight percent reported vaginal intercourse with new female partners, of whom 40.6% reported inconsistent condom use. Over half (55.6%) of men who had sex with men (N = 27) reported anal intercourse with multiple male partners in the past three months, of whom 68.2% reported using condoms inconsistently. Men who had more than two female partners in the last three months (n = 121) were more likely to use condoms inconsistently (aOR 4.31, 95% CI: 1.34-13.8); in contrast, those with more than one new female sex partner (aOR 0.13, 94% CI 0.04-0.44), and whose sexual debut was after 19 years of age (aOR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.15-1.01) were less likely to use condoms inconsistently.

CONCLUSION

HIV incidence was low and similar to other studies of heterosexual men in South Africa. To identify men at high risk for HIV for enrolment in prevention trials, future researchers may need to focus on those who report early sexual debut and who report having multiple sexual partners. Men in newer relationships appear to use condoms more frequently.

Diagnosis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection

HIV diagnostics have played a central role in the remarkable progress in identifying, staging, initiating, and monitoring infected individuals on life-saving antiretroviral therapy. They are also useful in surveillance and outbreak responses, allowing for assessment of disease burden and identification of vulnerable populations and transmission "hot spots," thus enabling planning, appropriate interventions, and allocation of appropriate funding. HIV diagnostics are critical in achieving epidemic control and require a hybrid of conventional laboratory-based diagnostic tests and new technologies, including point-of-care (POC) testing, to expand coverage, increase access, and positively impact patient management. In this review, we provide (i) a historical perspective on the evolution of HIV diagnostics (serologic and molecular) and their interplay with WHO normative guidelines, (ii) a description of the role of conventional and POC testing within the tiered laboratory diagnostic network, (iii) information on the evaluations and selection of appropriate diagnostics, (iv) a description of the quality management systems needed to ensure reliability of testing, and (v) strategies to increase access while reducing the time to return results to patients. Maintaining the central role of HIV diagnostics in programs requires periodic monitoring and optimization with quality assurance in order to inform adjustments or alignment to achieve epidemic control.

Cross-sectional estimates revealed high HIV incidence in Botswana rural communities in the era of successful ART scale-up in 2013-2015

BACKGROUND

Botswana is close to reaching the UNAIDS "90-90-90" HIV testing, antiretroviral treatment (ART), and viral suppression goals. We sought to determine HIV incidence in this setting with both high HIV prevalence and high ART coverage.

METHODS

We used a cross-sectional approach to assessing HIV incidence. A random, population-based sample of adults age 16-64 years was enrolled in 30 rural and peri-urban communities as part of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP), from October 2013 -November 2015. Data and samples from the baseline household survey were used to estimate cross-sectional HIV incidence, following an algorithm that combined Limiting-Antigen Avidity Assay (LAg-Avidity EIA), ART status (documented or by testing ARV drugs in plasma) and HIV-1 RNA load. The LAg-Avidity EIA cut-off normalized optical density (ODn) was set at 1.5. The HIV-1 RNA cut-off was set at 400 copies/mL. For estimation purposes, the Mean Duration of Recent Infection was 130 days and the False Recent Rate (FRR) was evaluated at values of either 0 or 0.39%.

RESULTS

Among 12,610 individuals participating in the baseline household survey, HIV status was available for 12,570 participants and 3,596 of them were HIV positive. LAg-Avidity EIA data was generated for 3,581 (99.6%) of HIV-positive participants. Of 326 participants with ODn ≤1.5, 278 individuals were receiving ART verified through documentation and were considered to represent longstanding HIV infections. Among the remaining 48 participants who reported no use of ART, 14 had an HIV-1 RNA load ≤400 copies/mL (including 3 participants with ARVs in plasma) and were excluded, as potential elite/viremic controllers or undisclosed ART. Thus, 34 LAg-Avidity-EIA-recent, ARV-naïve individuals with detectable HIV-1 RNA (>400 copies/mL) were classified as individuals with recent HIV infections. The annualized HIV incidence among 16-64 year old adults was estimated at 1.06% (95% CI 0.68-1.45%) with zero FRR, and at 0.64% (95% CI 0.24-1.04%) using a previously defined FRR of 0.39%. Within a subset of younger individuals 16-49 years old, the annualized HIV incidence was estimated at 1.29% (95% CI 0.82-1.77%) with zero FRR, and at 0.90% (95% CI 0.42-1.38%) with FRR set to 0.39%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a cross-sectional estimate of HIV incidence from 2013-2015, we found that at the time of near achievement of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, ~1% of adults (age 16-64 years) in Botswana's rural and peri-urban communities became HIV infected annually.

Strengthening HIV surveillance: measurements to track the epidemic in real time

Surveillance for HIV as a public health initiative requires timely, detailed and robust data to systematically understand burden of infection, transmission patterns, direct prevention efforts, guide funding, identify new infections and predict future trends in the epidemic. The methods for HIV surveillance have evolved to reliably track the epidemic and identify new infections in real time. Initially HIV surveillance relied primarily on the reporting of AIDS cases followed by measuring antibodies to HIV to determine prevalence in key populations. With the roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) resulting in better survival and the corresponding increase in HIV prevalence, the landscape of surveillance shifted further to track HIV prevalence and incidence within the context of programmes. Recent developments in laboratory assays that potentially measure and differentiate recent versus established HIV infection offer a cost-effective method for the rapid estimation of HIV incidence. These tests continue to be validated and are increasingly useful in informing the status of the epidemic in real time. Surveillance of heterogeneity of infections contributing to sub-epidemics requires methods to identify affected populations, density, key geographical locations and phylogenetically linked or clustered infections. Such methods could provide a nuanced understanding of the epidemic and prioritise prevention efforts to those most vulnerable. This paper brings together recent developments and challenges facing HIV surveillance, together with the application of newer assays and methods to fast-track the HIV prevention and treatment response.

Incident and long-term HIV-1 infection among pregnant women in Brazil: Transmitted drug resistance and mother-to-child transmission

Primary infection, seroconversion, and transmitted drug resistance (TDR) during pregnancy may influence the risk of mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT) of HIV-1 infection. This study estimated recent seroconversion, TDR rates, HIV-1 subtypes and pregnancy outcomes among 95 recently diagnosed, antiretroviral (ARV)-naïve pregnant women recruited during antenatal care in central western Brazil. Recent seroconversion was defined by BED-capture enzyme immunoassay (<155 days) and ambiguous nucleotides base calls (<1 year) in pol sequences (protease-PR and reverse transcriptase-RT regions). TDR was evaluated by the Calibrated Population Resistance tool. HIV-1 subtypes were defined by REGA and phylogenetic analyses. The median age of participants was 25 years; the median gestational age at diagnosis was 20.5 weeks. Based on serology and sequence polymorphism, recent infection was identified in 11.6% (11/95) and, 9 of them (82%), probably seroconverted during pregnancy; one MTCT case was observed among them. Three cases of stillbirth were observed among chronic infected patients (3.6%; 3/84). Moderate rate of TDR was observed (9/90, 10%, CI95% 4.7-18.1%). Subtype B was 60% (54/90), 13.3% (12/90) was subtype C, 6.7% (6/90) was subtype F1. Recombinant B(PR) /F1(RT) and F1(PR) /B(RT) viruses comprised 15.5% (14/90); B(PR) /C(RT) mosaics represented 4.4% (4/90). Seroconversion during pregnancy, late presentation to antenatal care and moderate TDR identified in this study represent significant challenges for the MTCT elimination. J. Med. Virol. 88:1936-1943, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimating HIV incidence among key affected populations in China from serial cross-sectional surveys in 2010-2014

Introduction

HIV incidence is an important measure for monitoring the development of the epidemic, but it is difficult to ascertain. We combined serial HIV prevalence and mortality data to estimate HIV incidence among key affected populations (KAPs) in China.

Methods

Serial cross-sectional surveys were conducted among KAPs from 2010 to 2014. Trends in HIV prevalence were assessed by the Cochran-Armitage test, adjusted by risk group. HIV incidence was estimated from a mathematical model that describes the relationship between changes in HIV incidence with HIV prevalence and mortality.

Results

The crude HIV prevalence for the survey samples remained stable at 1.1 to 1.2% from 2010 to 2014. Among drug users (DUs), HIV prevalence declined from 4.48 to 3.29% (p<0.0001), and among men who have sex with men (MSM), HIV prevalence increased from 5.73 to 7.75% (p<0.0001). Changes in HIV prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs) and male patients of sexually transmitted disease clinics were more modest but remained statistically significant (all p<0.0001). The MSM population had the highest incidence estimates at 0.74% in 2011, 0.59% in 2012, 0.57% in 2013 and 0.53% in 2014. Estimates of the annual incidence for DUs and FSWs were very low and may not be reliable.

Conclusions

Serial cross-sectional prevalence data from representative samples may be another approach to construct approximate estimates of national HIV incidence among key populations. We observed that the MSM population had the highest incidence for HIV among high-risk groups in China, and we suggest that interventions targeting MSM are urgently needed to curb the growing HIV epidemic.

HIV acquisition during pregnancy and postpartum is associated with genital infections and partnership characteristics

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to determine the risk and cofactors for HIV acquisition during pregnancy and postpartum.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study

METHODS

: Pregnant women in western Kenya were enrolled if HIV seronegative at that visit or within 3 months. Serial HIV nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) were conducted at 1 to 3-month intervals to 9 months postpartum. Genital swabs were collected for detection of chlamydia and gonorrhoea at baseline, and for trichomonas, bacterial vaginosis and yeast at baseline and follow-up.

RESULTS

Among 1304 pregnant women, median age was 22 years, 78% were married for a median of 4 years, 66% reported knowing partner HIV status and 8% reported using condoms. Study retention was 98%. During 1235 person-years of follow-up, HIV incidence was 2.31/100 person-years [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.71-4.10]. Incident HIV was associated with syphilis (hazard ratio 9.18, 95% CI 2.15-39.3), chlamydia (hazard ratio 4.49, 95% CI 1.34-15.0), bacterial vaginosis (hazard ratio 2.91, 95% CI 1.25-6.76), yeast (hazard ratio 3.46, 95% CI 1.46-8.19), sexually transmitted infection (STI) history (hazard ratio 3.48, 95% CI 1.31-9.27), lifetime number of sex partners (hazard ratio 1.19, 95% CI 1.03-1.37), partner age discordance (hazard ratio 1.07 per year, 95% CI 1.02-1.13) and shorter marriage (hazard ratio 1.19 per year, 95% CI 1.03-1.38). No women with incident HIV reported an HIV-infected partner. In multivariate analyses, chlamydia, older partners and yeast infection remained significant; however, power was limited.

CONCLUSION

Pregnant and lactating women may not perceive HIV risk and rarely used condoms. Prevention and treatment of genital infections and risk stratification to identify women for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) could decrease HIV acquisition in pregnant/lactating women.

High prevalence and incidence of HIV-1 in a counseling and testing center in the city of Itajaí, Brazil

Itajaí is a port city in southern Brazil with one of the highest incidence and mortality rates from AIDS in the country. The prevalence and incidence of HIV infection were investigated in 1085 of 3196 new HIV-1 infection cases evaluated in the counseling and testing center of Itajaí from January 2002 to August 2008. Recent infections were assessed using the BED™, and pol region sequencing was performed in 76 samples. The prevalence ranged from 3.08% to 6.17% among women and from 10.26% to 17.36% among men. A total of 17% of infections were classified as recent, with annual incidence varying from 1.6% to 4.8 per 100 patient/year among women and from 2.05% to 8.5 per 100 patient/year among men. Pol sequences were obtained from 38 randomly recent infections selected individuals: 71% were infected by subtype C, 24% B, 2% D, and 2% F1. Among 38 subjects with established infection, 76% were subtype C, and 24% B. Transmitted drug resistance was detected in 18.4% of recent infection subjects (7.8% to nucleoside analog reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, 5.2% to non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, and 5.2% protease inhibitors) and 5.2% of subjects with established infection had nucleoside analog reverse-transcriptase inhibitors resistance.

The high prevalence and incidence of HIV infection in this region is unprecedented in studies involving cases evaluated in the counseling and testing centers in Brazil.

Recalibration of the limiting antigen avidity EIA to determine mean duration of recent infection in divergent HIV-1 subtypes

Background

Mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) and misclassification of long-term HIV-1 infections, as proportion false recent (PFR), are critical parameters for laboratory-based assays for estimating HIV-1 incidence. Recent review of the data by us and others indicated that MDRI of LAg-Avidity EIA estimated previously required recalibration. We present here results of recalibration efforts using >250 seroconversion panels and multiple statistical methods to ensure accuracy and consensus.

Methods

A total of 2737 longitudinal specimens collected from 259 seroconverting individuals infected with diverse HIV-1 subtypes were tested with the LAg-Avidity EIA as previously described. Data were analyzed for determination of MDRI at ODn cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0 using 7 statistical approaches and sub-analyzed by HIV-1 subtypes. In addition, 3740 specimens from individuals with infection >1 year, including 488 from patients with AIDS, were tested for PFR at varying cutoffs.

Results

Using different statistical methods, MDRI values ranged from 88–94 days at cutoff ODn = 1.0 to 177–183 days at ODn = 2.0. The MDRI values were similar by different methods suggesting coherence of different approaches. Testing for misclassification among long-term infections indicated that overall PFRs were 0.6% to 2.5% at increasing cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0, respectively. Balancing the need for a longer MDRI and smaller PFR (<2.0%) suggests that a cutoff ODn = 1.5, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days should be used for cross-sectional application. The MDRI varied among subtypes from 109 days (subtype A&D) to 152 days (subtype C).

Conclusions

Based on the new data and revised analysis, we recommend an ODn cutoff = 1.5 to classify recent and long-term infections, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days (118–142). Determination of revised parameters for estimation of HIV-1 incidence should facilitate application of the LAg-Avidity EIA for worldwide use.

Development of a proficiency testing program for the HIV-1 BED incidence assay in China

The HIV-1 BED incidence assay was adopted in China in 2005 for HIV-1 incidence surveillance. A proficiency testing (PT) program was established in 2006 to provide quality assurance services. The BED PT program consisted of two components, an international program provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2006 and a domestic program started by the National HIV/HCV Reference Laboratory in 2011. Each PT panel consisted of eight coded specimens distributed to participating laboratories semi-annually, and testing results were collected and analyzed. The number of participating laboratories increased progressively from 2006 to 2012. The Chinese HIV-1 incidence laboratory network performed satisfactorily both in international and domestic PT programs. We also demonstrated that the BED assay was highly reproducible among participating laboratories. Our success and lessons learned can be readily replicated in other countries or regions contemplating the establishment of a PT program for assay-based HIV incidence estimation.

Estimated incidence and genotypes of HIV-1 among pregnant women in central Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incidence of HIV-1 infection among pregnant women from central-western Brazil.

DESIGN

Observational cross-sectional study.

METHODS

A total of 54,139 pregnant women received antenatal HIV screening from a network of public healthcare centers in 2011. The incidence of confirmed HIV-1 infection was estimated using the Serological Testing Algorithms for Recent HIV Seroconversion (STARHS) methodology and BED-capture enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA). The yearly incidence was calculated, and adjusted incidence rates were estimated. For a subgroup of patients, protease and partial reverse transcriptase regions were retrotranscribed from plasma HIV-1 RNA and sequenced after performing a nested polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

Of the participants, 20% had a pregnancy before the age of 18 and approximately 40% were experiencing their first pregnancy. Of the 54,139 pregnant women screened, 86 had a confirmed HIV-1 diagnosis, yielding an overall prevalence of 1.59 cases per 1000 women (95% CI 1.27-1.96). A higher prevalence was detected in the older age groups, reflecting cumulative exposure to the virus over time. Among the infected pregnant women, 20% were considered recently infected according to the BED-CEIA. The estimated incidence of HIV infection was 0.61 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0.33-0.89); the corrected incidence was 0.47 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0.26-0.68). In a subgroup of patients, HIV-1 subtype C (16.7%) was the second most prevalent form after subtype B (66.7%); BF1 recombinants (11.1%) and one case of subtype F1 (5.5%) were also detected.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the potential for deriving incidence estimates from a large antenatal screening program for HIV. The rate of recent HIV-1 infection among women in their early reproductive years is a public health warning to implement preventive measures.

Laboratory support of global health research

Laboratory generated data are used in support of several types of global health research. Routinely obtained clinical diagnostic data are used for disease surveillance, epidemiologic analysis of frequencies and trends, health outcomes research, and sponsored research projects. Clinical data from research laboratories is also collected in support of sponsored research projects. Whether the initial purpose of the testing is in support of research protocols or the data are retrospectively reviewed, the quality of the laboratory data is essential to drawing correct conclusions. The types and use of data generated by on-site, routine diagnostic, research diagnostic and basic science laboratories will be described, with a focus on quality-related issues. Full integration of laboratory management as a partner is essential to successful research planning and execution.

Simple estimation of incident HIV infection rates in notification cohorts based on window periods of algorithms for evaluation of line-immunoassay result patterns

Background

Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods.

Methods

We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship ‘Prevalence  =  Incidence x Duration’ in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship ‘incident  =  true incident + false incident’ and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay.

Results

Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R² = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods.

Conclusions

IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

Recent HIV infection rates among HIV positive patients seeking voluntary counseling and testing centers in the metropolitan region of Recife - PE, Brazil

The BED capture enzyme immunoassay test makes it possible to determine whether individuals were recently infected with HIV.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, the overall HIV and recent infections prevalences were determined at five Voluntary Counseling and Testing (VCT) centers, in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Northeastern of Brazil.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among users of five VCTs in the metropolitan region of Recife between July 2007 and April 2009. Out of the individuals who tested positive for HIV, 169 were analyzed to assess the prevalence of recent infection by means of the BED-CEIA (BED-Calypte®).

RESULTS

Out of 46,696 individuals tested 916 (1.96%) turned out positive for HIV infection The highest prevalence was in Recife (3.9%). The prevalence was higher among males (3.93%), and men who have sex with men (MSM) (12.4%). The frequency of recent infections among the 169 subjects evaluated was 23.7%. Recent infections were more common among individuals under 25 years of age. There was slight predominance of men and higher frequency of heterosexuals in both groups, but still a significant portion of MSM (33%). Subtype B predominated, followed by a high proportion of subtype F.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent infection occurs mainly among young individuals and heterosexuals, despite a significant proportion of recent infection among MSM. These results suggest that preventive actions aimed at the MSM community remains a challenge and efforts focusing this group should continue to be a priority.

Controlling HIV epidemics among injection drug users: eight years of Cross-Border HIV prevention interventions in Vietnam and China

INTRODUCTION

HIV in Vietnam and Southern China is driven by injection drug use. We have implemented HIV prevention interventions for IDUs since 2002-2003 in Lang Son and Ha Giang Provinces, Vietnam and Ning Ming County (Guangxi), China.

METHODS

Interventions provide peer education and needle/syringe distribution. Evaluation employed serial cross-sectional surveys of IDUs 26 waves from 2002 to 2011, including interviews and HIV testing. Outcomes were HIV risk behaviors, HIV prevalence and incidence. HIV incidence estimation used two methods: 1) among new injectors from prevalence data; and 2) a capture enzyme immunoassay (BED testing) on all HIV+ samples.

RESULTS

We found significant declines in drug-related risk behaviors and sharp reductions in HIV prevalence among IDUs (Lang Son from 46% to 23% [p<0.001], Ning Ming: from 17% to 11% [p = 0.003], and Ha Giang: from 51% to 18% [p<0.001]), reductions not experienced in other provinces without such interventions. There were significant declines in HIV incidence to low levels among new injectors through 36-48 months, then some rebound, particularly in Ning Ming, but BED-based estimates revealed significant reductions in incidence through 96 months.

DISCUSSION

This is one of the longest studies of HIV prevention among IDUs in Asia. The rebound in incidence among new injectors may reflect sexual transmission. BED-based estimates may overstate incidence (because of false-recent results in patients with long-term infection or on ARV treatment) but adjustment for false-recent results and survey responses on duration of infection generally confirm BED-based incidence trends. Combined trends from the two estimation methods show sharp declines in incidence to low levels. The significant downward trends in all primary outcome measures indicate that the Cross-Border interventions played an important role in bringing HIV epidemics among IDUs under control. The Cross-Border project offers a model of HIV prevention for IDUs that should be considered for large-scale replication.

Diagnostic performance of line-immunoassay based algorithms for incident HIV-1 infection

Background

Serologic testing algorithms for recent HIV seroconversion (STARHS) provide important information for HIV surveillance. We have previously demonstrated that a patient's antibody reaction pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (INNO-LIA™ HIV I/II Score) provides information on the duration of infection, which is unaffected by clinical, immunological and viral variables. In this report we have set out to determine the diagnostic performance of Inno-Lia algorithms for identifying incident infections in patients with known duration of infection and evaluated the algorithms in annual cohorts of HIV notifications.

Methods

Diagnostic sensitivity was determined in 527 treatment-naive patients infected for up to 12 months. Specificity was determined in 740 patients infected for longer than 12 months. Plasma was tested by Inno-Lia and classified as either incident (< = 12 m) or older infection by 26 different algorithms. Incident infection rates (IIR) were calculated based on diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of each algorithm and the rule that the total of incident results is the sum of true-incident and false-incident results, which can be calculated by means of the pre-determined sensitivity and specificity.

Results

The 10 best algorithms had a mean raw sensitivity of 59.4% and a mean specificity of 95.1%. Adjustment for overrepresentation of patients in the first quarter year of infection further reduced the sensitivity. In the preferred model, the mean adjusted sensitivity was 37.4%. Application of the 10 best algorithms to four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications totalling 2'595 patients yielded a mean IIR of 0.35 in 2005/6 (baseline) and of 0.45, 0.42 and 0.35 in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively. The increase between baseline and 2008 and the ensuing decreases were highly significant. Other adjustment models yielded different absolute IIR, although the relative changes between the cohorts were identical for all models.

Conclusions

The method can be used for comparing IIR in annual cohorts of HIV notifications. The use of several different algorithms in combination, each with its own sensitivity and specificity to detect incident infection, is advisable as this reduces the impact of individual imperfections stemming primarily from relatively low sensitivities and sampling bias.

The epidemiology of HIV among young people in sub-Saharan Africa: know your local epidemic and its implications for prevention

BACKGROUND

Broad patterns of HIV epidemiology are frequently used to design generic HIV programs in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We reviewed the epidemiology of HIV among young people in sub-Saharan Africa, and explored the unique dynamics of infection in its different regions.

RESULTS

In 2009, HIV prevalence among youth in sub-Saharan Africa was an estimated 1.4% in males and 3.4% in females, but these values mask wide variation at regional and national levels. Within countries there are further major differences in HIV prevalence, such as by sex, urban/rural location, economic status, education, or ethnic group. Within this highly nuanced context, HIV prevention programs targeting youth must consider both where new infections are occurring and where they are coming from.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the epidemiology, one-size-fits-all HIV prevention programs are usually inappropriate at regional and national levels. Consideration of local context and risk associated with life transitions, such as leaving school or getting married, is imperative to successful programming for young people.

HIV testing: the cornerstone of HIV prevention efforts in the USA

An estimated 1.2 million persons in the USA are infected with HIV, of whom approximately 20% are unaware they are infected. HIV testing and knowledge of HIV serostatus have important individual and public health benefits, including reduction of morbidity, mortality and HIV transmission. Although testing is the necessary first step to prevention, more than half of the US adult population has never been tested for HIV. However, this proportion is increasing due to revised national recommendations to make HIV testing a routine part of healthcare, expansion of testing efforts at local, state and national levels, and progress in the development and adoption of new testing technologies. In this article, we describe the essential role of HIV testing as a public health prevention strategy, examine recent advances in HIV testing technologies and testing implementation, and identify future directions for HIV testing in the USA.

Dual testing algorithm of BED-CEIA and AxSYM Avidity Index assays performs best in identifying recent HIV infection in a sample of Rwandan sex workers

BACKGROUND

To assess the performance of BED-CEIA (BED) and AxSYM Avidity Index (Ax-AI) assays in estimating HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Kigali, Rwanda.

METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS

Eight hundred FSW of unknown HIV status were HIV tested; HIV-positive women had BED and Ax-AI testing at baseline and ≥12 months later to estimate assay false-recent rates (FRR). STARHS-based HIV incidence was estimated using the McWalter/Welte formula, and adjusted with locally derived FRR and CD4 results. HIV incidence and local assay window periods were estimated from a prospective cohort of FSW. At baseline, 190 HIV-positive women were BED and Ax-AI tested; 23 were classified as recent infection (RI). Assay FRR with 95% confidence intervals were: 3.6% (1.2-8.1) (BED); 10.6% (6.1-17.0) (Ax-AI); and 2.1% (0.4-6.1) (BED/Ax-AI combined). After FRR-adjustment, incidence estimates by BED, Ax-AI, and BED/Ax-AI were: 5.5/100 person-years (95% CI 2.2-8.7); 7.7 (3.2-12.3); and 4.4 (1.4-7.3). After CD4-adjustment, BED, Ax-AI, and BED/Ax-AI incidence estimates were: 5.6 (2.6-8.6); 9.7 (5.0-14.4); and 4.7 (2.0-7.5). HIV incidence rates in the first and second 6 months of the cohort were 4.6 (1.6-7.7) and 2.2 (0.1-4.4).

CONCLUSIONS

Adjusted incidence estimates by BED/Ax-AI combined were similar to incidence in the first 6 months of the cohort. Furthermore, false-recent rate on the combined BED/Ax-AI algorithm was low and substantially lower than for either assay alone. Improved assay specificity with time since seroconversion suggests that specificity would be higher in population-based testing where more individuals have long-term infection.

Evaluation of HIV incidence surveillance in New York City, 2006

In 2005, the New York City (NYC) Department of Health and Mental Hygiene implemented a standardized human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence surveillance protocol based on the serologic testing algorithm for recent HIV seroconversion deployed nationwide by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). We evaluated four key attributes of NYC's HIV incidence surveillance system-simplicity, data quality, timeliness, and acceptability--using CDC's guidelines for surveillance system evaluation. The evaluation revealed that the system could potentially provide HIV incidence estimates stratified by borough and major demographic groups at about nine months after the period of interest. The system strengths include its relative simplicity and integration with routine HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome surveillance. Weaknesses include lack of completeness of testing history information, a critical component of incidence estimation. Continued improvements in data completeness and timeliness will improve the currently available information to inform personnel who develop HIV-prevention programs and policy initiatives in NYC and nationally.

Assessment of BED HIV-1 incidence assay in seroconverter cohorts: effect of individuals with long-term infection and importance of stable incidence

Background

Performance of the BED assay in estimating HIV-1 incidence has previously been evaluated by using longitudinal specimens from persons with incident HIV infections, but questions remain about its accuracy. We sought to assess its performance in three longitudinal cohorts from Thailand where HIV-1 CRF01_AE and subtype B′ dominate the epidemic.

Design

BED testing was conducted in two longitudinal cohorts with only incident infections (a military conscript cohort and an injection drug user cohort) and in one longitudinal cohort (an HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial cohort) that also included long-term infections.

Methods

Incidence estimates were generated conventionally (based on the number of annual serocoversions) and by using BED test results in the three cohorts. Adjusted incidence was calculated where appropriate.

Results

For each longitudinal cohort the BED incidence estimates and the conventional incidence estimates were similar when only newly infected persons were tested, whether infected with CRF01_AE or subtype B′. When the analysis included persons with long-term infections (to mimic a true cross-sectional cohort), BED incidence estimates were higher, although not significantly, than the conventional incidence estimates. After adjustment, the BED incidence estimates were closer to the conventional incidence estimates. When the conventional incidence varied over time, as in the early phase of the injection drug user cohort, the difference between the two estimates increased, but not significantly.

Conclusions

Evaluation of the performance of incidence assays requires the inclusion of a substantial number of cohort-derived specimens from individuals with long-term HIV infection and, ideally, the use of cohorts in which incidence remained stable. Appropriate adjustments of the BED incidence estimates generate estimates similar to those generated conventionally.

Determination of mean recency period for estimation of HIV type 1 Incidence with the BED-capture EIA in persons infected with diverse subtypes

The IgG capture BED enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA) was developed to detect recent HIV-1 infection for the estimation of HIV-1 incidence from cross-sectional specimens. The mean time interval between seroconversion and reaching a specified assay cutoff value [referred to here as the mean recency period (ω)], an important parameter for incidence estimation, is determined for some HIV-1 subtypes, but testing in more cohorts and new statistical methods suggest the need for a revised estimation of ω in different subtypes. A total of 2927 longitudinal specimens from 756 persons with incident HIV infections who had been enrolled in 17 cohort studies was tested by the BED-CEIA. The ω was determined using two statistical approaches: (1) linear mixed effects regression (ω(1)) and (2) a nonparametric survival method (ω(2)). Recency periods varied among individuals and by population. At an OD-n cutoff of 0.8, ω(1) was 176 days (95% CL 164-188 days) whereas ω(2) was 162 days (95% CL 152-172 days) when using a comparable subset of specimens (13 cohorts). When method 2 was applied to all available data (17 cohorts), ω(2) ranged from 127 days (Thai AE) to 236 days (subtypes AG, AD) with an overall ω(2) of 197 days (95% CL 173-220). About 70% of individuals reached a threshold OD-n of 0.8 by 197 days (mean ω) and 95% of people reached 0.8 OD-n by 480 days. The determination of ω with more data and new methodology suggests that ω of the BED-CEIA varies between different subtypes and/or populations. These estimates for ω may affect incidence estimates in various studies.

Screening for 'window-period' acute HIV infection among pregnant women in rural South Africa

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate the HIV-1 RNA pooled nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) strategy to screen pregnant women in the 'window period' of acute HIV infection (AHI) in rural South Africa.

METHODS

In 2007 and 2008, 750 consecutive pregnant women on their first antenatal care visit to a primary health care clinic were tested anonymously for HIV infection. HIV-1 RNA pooled NAAT was performed on HIV antibody-negative samples. All positive pools were tested individually and positive samples were classified as incident cases to calculate HIV incidence.

RESULTS

The overall HIV prevalence was 37.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 34.3–41.3]. Of the 467 HIV antibody-negative samples, four (0.9%) were HIV-1 RNA-positive. The mean viral load in the four samples was 386 260 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL (range 64 200–1 228130). The HIV incidence was 11.2%per year (95% CI 0.3–22.1) and all women with AHI were 21 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying AHI in pregnancy is important for health interventions to reduce perinatal and heterosexual transmission of HIV, and to estimate HIV incidence for epidemiological surveillance.

HIV incidence estimation using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay: systematic review and sensitivity analysis

BACKGROUND

HIV incidence estimates are essential for understanding the evolution of the HIV epidemic and the impact of interventions. Tests for recent HIV infection allow incidence estimation based on a single cross-sectional survey. The BED IgG-Capture Enzyme Immunoassay (BED assay) is a commercially available and widely used test for recent HIV infection.

METHODS

In a systematic literature search for BED assay studies, we identified 1181 unique studies, 1138 of which were excluded based on titles or abstracts. We conducted reviews of the 43 remaining publications and a further 23 studies identified on conference Web sites or by colleagues. Thirty-nine articles were included in the final review. We investigated the sensitivity of incidence values to various estimation methods and parameter choices.

RESULTS

BED assay surveys have been conducted on 5 continents in general populations and high-risk groups, using 1 or more of 10 distinct incidence formulae. Most studies used estimators that do not account for assay imperfection. Those studies that correct for assay imperfection commonly do not use locally valid assay parameters. Incidence estimates were very sensitive to methodological and parameter choices. Most confidence intervals provided good assessment of uncertainty due to counting error, but only a few incorporated parameter uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS

BED assay surveys can produce valid HIV incidence estimates, but many studies have not sufficiently accounted for assay imperfection. Future studies should (1) report all information necessary for incidence point and uncertainty estimation, (2) use an unbiased estimator with locally valid assay calibration parameters, and (3) compute confidence intervals that take into account parameter uncertainty.

Variations in autologous neutralization and CD4 dependence of b12 resistant HIV-1 clade C env clones obtained at different time points from antiretroviral naïve Indian patients with recent infection

Background

Limited information is available on HIV-1 Indian clade C sensitivities to autologous antibodies during the course of natural infection. In the present study, a total of 37 complete envelope clones (Env) were amplified at different time points predominantly from the plasma of five Indian patients with recent HIV-1 infection and envelope-pseudotyped viruses were examined for their magnitude of sensitivity to autologous plasma antibodies during natural course of infection.

Results

Variable low levels of neutralization were consistently detected with contemporaneous autologous plasma. In contrast to clade B and African clade C HIV-1 envelopes, Env clones obtained from four patients were found to be resistant to IgG1b12. The majority of the Env clones were resistant to 2G12 and 2F5 due to the absence of the minimal motifs required for antibody recognition, but were sensitive to 4E10. Nonetheless, Env clones from one patient were found to be sensitive to 2G12, atypical for clade C, and one Env clone exhibited unusual sensitivity to 17b, suggesting spontaneous exposure of CD4i epitopes. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that Env clones were closely clustered within patients. Variation in the potential N-linked glycosylation pattern also appeared to be different in patients over the course of infection. Interestingly, we found that the sensitivity of Envs to contemporaneous autologous NAbs correlated positively with increased sensitivity to soluble CD4 and inversely with anti-CD4 antibody and Envs with increased NAb sensitivity were able to efficiently infect HeLa cells expressing low CD4.

Conclusion

Our data showed considerable variations in autologous neutralization of these early HIV-1 clade C Envs in each of these patients and indicate greater exposure to CD4 of Envs that showed increased autologous neutralization. Interestingly, Env clones obtained from a single patient at different time points were found to retain sensitivity to b12 antibody that binds to CD4 binding site in Env in contrast to Envs obtained from other patients. However, we did not find any association between increased b12 sensitivity of Envs obtained from this particular patient with their degree of exposure to CD4.

Development of two avidity-based assays to detect recent HIV type 1 seroconversion using a multisubtype gp41 recombinant protein

Current laboratory methods to detect recent HIV-1 infection for the estimation of incidence have various limitations, including varying performance in different subtypes or populations. Therefore, new methods are needed to detect recent infections with increased specificity. We developed a recombinant protein, rIDR-M, that covered divergent sequences from the immunodominant region (IDR) of gp41 from all major subtypes and recombinants of HIV-1 group M and expressed in Escherichia coli. The rIDR-M protein was highly reactive with HIV antibodies in sera from different subtypes and equivalently detected antibodies to divergent subtypes B and AE from Thailand, in contrast to individual gp41 peptides derived from respective subtypes, suggesting that it can be used for incidence assays. The protein was used in two different assay formats to measure antibody avidity: (1) a two-well avidity index assay (AI-EIA) and (2) a new one-well limiting antigen avidity assay (LAg-avidity EIA), both with a pH 3.0 buffer to dissociate low-avidity antibodies present during early infection. Limiting the amount of antigen allowed detection of recent HIV-1 infection, with or without dissociation buffer, but the detection was most efficient when the pH 3.0 dissociation buffer was included. When a well-characterized 41-member seroincidence panel (20 recent and 21 long-term) was used, both the two-well AI-EIA and one-well LAg-avidity EIA efficiently distinguished recent and long-term infections. The new avidity-based assays using rIDR-M antigen may improve the accuracy of detecting recent HIV-1 infection and allow a better estimation of incidence in diverse HIV-1 subtypes.

Performance of an immunoassay at detecting recent infection among reported HIV diagnoses

INTRODUCTION

An enzyme immunoassay to detect recent HIV-1 infection (EIA-RI) of less than 6 months is routinely performed on diagnoses reported to the National HIV case surveillance in France. We assessed the performance of the EIA-RI infection on this country population scale by measuring its agreement with other indicators of time since infection that were obtained through clinical, biological or testing history recorded on the surveillance reporting form.

METHODS

We used data from the National HIV case surveillance from its debut in March 2003 to June 2007. Infection within 6 months was defined as a negative test reported within 6 months prior to diagnosis. We further ascertained this definition by adding information about of a symptomatic primary infection or biological evidence of recent seroconversion. Infection established for more than 6 months was defined when a positive test had occurred more than 6 months prior to the reported diagnosis.

RESULTS

Time since infection could be ascertained in 6782 of 15, 331 (44.2%) HIV diagnoses. Assay sensitivity and specificity were 73.8 and 83.7%, respectively. Among the 1940 cases originating from Sub-Saharan Africa, sensitivity and specificity were 54.1 and 90.8%, respectively.

DISCUSSION

Assessment of the performance of the EIA-RI on a large and heterogeneous population revealed two major findings--significant discrepancies in timing from infection near the 180-day cutoff, and a performance that depends on the geographic origin of patients. This has implications for estimating the assay window period and in the perspective of incidence estimation from HIV case surveillance.

The potential role of biomarkers in HIV preventive vaccine trials

BACKGROUND

Successful conduct of HIV vaccine efficacy trials entails identification and enrollment of at-risk populations, assessment of appropriate end points as measures of vaccine efficacy for prevention of HIV acquisition, and amelioration of disease course among infected vaccinees, as well as identification of potential confounders or effect modifiers. Although not invariably useful and bringing their own cost in terms of measurement and validation, a variety of biomarkers may aid at each stage of trial conduct.

METHODS

A review of selected articles, chosen based on quality, relevance of the biomarker to HIV vaccine trials, and availability of the publication, was conducted. The authors also drew experience from current trials and other planned or ongoing trials.

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarkers are available to assess HIV incidence in potential study populations, but care is needed in interpreting results of these assays. During trial conduct, sexually transmitted infections such as herpes simplex virus type 2 may act as effect modifiers on primary and secondary end points, including HIV incidence and set point viral load. The utility of sexually transmitted infection biomarkers will likely depend heavily on local epidemiology at clinical trial sites. Analyses from recent large HIV vaccine efficacy trials point to the complexities in interpreting trial results and underscore the potential utility of biomarkers in evaluating confounding and effect modification.

Advances and future directions in HIV surveillance in low- and middle-income countries

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To present recent advances in HIV/AIDS surveillance methods in low- and middle-income countries.

RECENT FINDINGS

From 2001 to 2008, 30 low- and middle-income countries implemented national population-based surveys with HIV testing. Antenatal clinic HIV sentinel surveillance sites in sub-Saharan Africa increased from just over 1000 in 2003-2004 to almost 2500 in 2005-2006, becoming more representative of rural areas. Between 2003 and 2007, at least 122 behavioral surveys in low- and middle-income countries used respondent-driven sampling for surveillance among high-risk populations, although many countries with concentrated epidemics continue to have major sentinel surveillance gaps. Improvements have been made in modeling estimates of number of persons HIV infected, and systems are now in place to measure HIV drug resistance. However, the reliable monitoring of trends and the measuring of HIV incidence, morbidity, and mortality is still a challenge.

SUMMARY

In the past 5 years, there have been substantial improvements in the quantity and quality of HIV surveillance studies, especially in the countries with high prevalence. Further efforts should be made in countries that lack fully implemented surveillance systems to improve HIV incidence, morbidity, and mortality surveillance and to use data more effectively.

Errors in 'BED'-derived estimates of HIV incidence will vary by place, time and age

Background

The BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay, believed to distinguish recent HIV infections, is being used to estimate HIV incidence, although an important property of the test – how specificity changes with time since infection – has not been not measured.

Methods

We construct hypothetical scenarios for the performance of BED test, consistent with current knowledge, and explore how this could influence errors in BED estimates of incidence using a mathematical model of six African countries. The model is also used to determine the conditions and the sample sizes required for the BED test to reliably detect trends in HIV incidence.

Results

If the chance of misclassification by BED increases with time since infection, the overall proportion of individuals misclassified could vary widely between countries, over time, and across age-groups, in a manner determined by the historic course of the epidemic and the age-pattern of incidence. Under some circumstances, changes in BED estimates over time can approximately track actual changes in incidence, but large sample sizes (50,000+) will be required for recorded changes to be statistically significant.

Conclusions

The relationship between BED test specificity and time since infection has not been fully measured, but, if it decreases, errors in estimates of incidence could vary by place, time and age-group. This means that post-assay adjustment procedures using parameters from different populations or at different times may not be valid. Further research is urgently needed into the properties of the BED test, and the rate of misclassification in a wide range of populations.

The epidemiology of HIV infection among young people aged 15-24 years in southern Africa

OBJECTIVES

To investigate epidemiological patterns and trends of HIV infection and sexual behaviour among young people aged 15-24 years in the nine countries in southern Africa most affected by the HIV epidemic.

METHODS

Data on HIV prevalence among young people in the general population were obtained from national population-based surveys conducted between 2000 and 2007, whereas data on sexual behaviour were obtained from repeat surveys between 1994 and 2007. Linear or exponential regression was used to analyse HIV prevalence trends among young women attending antenatal clinics in recent years.

RESULTS

Patterns of HIV infection among young people are similar across the countries included in this analysis. The prevalence of HIV increases after the age of 15 years, more rapidly among women than among men, reaching a peak among women in their twenties and men in their thirties. Between 2000 and 2007 the prevalence of HIV among antenatal clinic attendees was constant in Mozambique and South Africa and declining in Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland, Zambia, Botswana, Malawi and Zimbabwe, but only reached statistical significance (P < 0.05) in the last three. Changes towards safer sexual behaviour were observed over time among young men and women in the general population in this region.

CONCLUSION

Sexual behaviour changes among young people are encouraging and are associated with declines in HIV prevalence among young antenatal clinic attendees over time. More research is needed to understand the recent changes and the very high prevalence among young women in this region. Interventions aimed at reducing risky behaviour need to be supported and expanded while incorporating new approaches to prevention.

Identification of primary HIV-1C infection in Botswana

Methods for identification of primary HIV infections seem increasingly important to understand pathogenesis, and to prevent transmission, which is particularly efficient during acute infection. Most current algorithms for HIV testing are based on detection of HIV antibodies and are unable to identify early infections before seroconversion. The efficiency of prospective cohorts, which is a standard approach for identifying primary HIV-1 infection, depends on a variety of epidemiological and cultural factors including HIV incidence and stigma and, not surprisingly, varies significantly in different geographical areas. We report a voluntary counseling and testing (VCT)-based approach to identifying primary HIV-1C infection that was developed as part of a primary HIV-1 subtype C infection study in Botswana. The referral strategy was based on: (1) collaboration with VCT centers at city clinics operated by the Ministry of Health; (2) partnering with the busiest non-government VCT center; (3) educating healthcare workers and the community about primary HIV infection; and (4) pairing with diverse VCT providers, including NGOs and private-sector organizations. Acute HIV-1 infections were defined by a negative HIV-1 serology combined with a positive HIV-1 RT-PCR test. Recent HIV-1 infections were identified by detuned EIA testing according to the classic STARTH algorithm. The VCT-based referral strategy resulted in the successful identification of 57 cases of acute and early HIV infection. A referral strategy of expanded VCT with viral RNA (Ribonucleic acid) testing to a national program in Botswana may be a promising approach for identification of primary HIV infections on a countrywide level. The program should offer VCT with viral RNA testing to the general public, facilitate proper counseling and risk reduction, and allow initiation of early HAART, and may reduce new viral transmissions.

HIV incidence in rural South Africa: comparison of estimates from longitudinal surveillance and cross-sectional cBED assay testing

Background

The BED IgG-Capture Enzyme Immunoassay (cBED assay), a test of recent HIV infection, has been used to estimate HIV incidence in cross-sectional HIV surveys. However, there has been concern that the assay overestimates HIV incidence to an unknown extent because it falsely classifies some individuals with non-recent HIV infections as recently infected. We used data from a longitudinal HIV surveillance in rural South Africa to measure the fraction of people with non-recent HIV infection who are falsely classified as recently HIV-infected by the cBED assay (the long-term false-positive ratio (FPR)) and compared cBED assay-based HIV incidence estimates to longitudinally measured HIV incidence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We measured the long-term FPR in individuals with two positive HIV tests (in the HIV surveillance, 2003–2006) more than 306 days apart (sample size n = 1,065). We implemented four different formulae to calculate HIV incidence using cBED assay testing (n = 11,755) and obtained confidence intervals (CIs) by directly calculating the central 95^th percentile of incidence values. We observed 4,869 individuals over 7,685 person-years for longitudinal HIV incidence estimation. The long-term FPR was 0.0169 (95% CI 0.0100–0.0266). Using this FPR, the cross-sectional cBED-based HIV incidence estimates (per 100 people per year) varied between 3.03 (95% CI 2.44–3.63) and 3.19 (95% CI 2.57–3.82), depending on the incidence formula. Using a long-term FPR of 0.0560 based on previous studies, HIV incidence estimates varied between 0.65 (95% CI 0.00–1.32) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.00–1.43). The longitudinally measured HIV incidence was 3.09 per 100 people per year (95% CI 2.69–3.52), after adjustment to the sex-age distribution of the sample used in cBED assay-based estimation.

Conclusions/Significance

In a rural community in South Africa with high HIV prevalence, the long-term FPR of the cBED assay is substantially lower than previous estimates. The cBED assay performs well in HIV incidence estimation if the locally measured long-term FPR is used, but significantly underestimates incidence when a FPR estimate based on previous studies in other settings is used.

New challenges for mathematical and statistical modeling of HIV and hepatitis C virus in injecting drug users

Injecting drug users are not only driving blood-borne transmission of HIV and hepatitis C virus but also likely drive sexual transmission of HIV in large parts of the world. Mathematical and statistical modeling can provide important insights in these epidemiological processes and on the potential impact of interventions but have been little used to date. This review aims to discuss the potential areas of application of modeling in the field of viral infections in injecting drug users. After reviewing key examples of published modeling work on HIV and hepatitis C virus in injecting drug users, we discuss recent developments in the epidemiology, diagnosis, treatment and prevention of these infections. In particular, new methods for the diagnosis of early HIV infection, new antivirals for a more effective treatment of HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C virus infections, new concepts in design and surveillance of interventions for drug users and increasing possibilities of molecular typing of pathogens are changing the questions and decisions for public health policy makers who deal with drug-related infectious diseases. Research including mathematical modeling is needed to understand the impact of new diagnostic tools, new treatment options and combined intervention strategies on the epidemiology of viral infections in injecting drug users. Methodological advances in mathematical modeling are required to adequately approach some of the ensuing research questions. Modeling has much to offer for solving urgent policy questions, but current levels of funding in modeling research are insufficient and need to be scaled up to make better use of these possibilities.

Improved HIV-1 incidence estimates using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay

OBJECTIVE

To validate the BED capture enzyme immunoassay for HIV-1 subtype C and to derive adjustments facilitating estimation of HIV-1 incidence from cross-sectional surveys.

DESIGN

Laboratory analysis of archived plasma samples collected in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Serial plasma samples from 85 women who seroconverted to HIV-1 during the postpartum year were assayed by BED and used to estimate the window period between seroconversion and the attainment of a specified BED absorbance. HIV-1 incidences for the year prior to recruitment and for the postpartum year were calculated by applying the BED technique to HIV-1-positive samples collected at baseline and at 12 months.

RESULTS

The mean window for an absorbance cut-off of 0.8 was 187 days. Among women who were HIV-1 positive at baseline and retested at 12 months, a proportion (epsilon) 5.2% (142/2749) had a BED absorbance < 0.8 at 12 months and were falsely identified as recent seroconverters. Consequently, the estimated BED annual incidence at 12 months postpartum (7.6%) was 2.2 times the contemporary prospective estimate. BED incidence adjusted for epsilon was 3.5% [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.6-4.5], close to the 3.4% estimated prospectively. Adjusted BED incidence at baseline was 6.0% (95% CI, 5.2-6.9) and, like the prospective estimates, declined with maternal age. Unadjusted BED incidence estimates were largely independent of age; the pooled estimate was 58% higher than adjusted incidence.

CONCLUSION

The BED method can be used in an African setting, but further estimates of epsilon and of the window period are required, using large samples in a variety of circumstances, before its general utility can be gauged.

High HIV incidence in a community with high HIV prevalence in rural South Africa: findings from a prospective population-based study

OBJECTIVES

To measure HIV incidence in a rural area of South Africa with high HIV prevalence and to analyze risk factors for acquisition of HIV using a prospective population-based cohort study.

METHODS

Data from two rounds (2003-2005) of a large prospective population-based HIV survey in rural KwaZulu-Natal were used to calculate HIV incidence by sex and 5-year age group. Multiple imputations (MI) were used to adjust for selection effects and risk factors for acquiring HIV were examined in Weibull multiple regression.

RESULTS

During 5253 person-years at risk, 170 individuals became seropositive. The crude HIV incidence rate per 100 person-years was 3.8 [95% confidence interval (CI), 3.2-4.6] in women aged 15-49 years and 2.3 (95% CI, 1.8-3.1) in men aged 15-54 years. MI significantly increased the HIV incidence rates both in women and men [7.9/100 person-years (95% CI, 7.4-8.4) and 5.1/100 person-years (95% CI 4.1-6.2), respectively]. When holding other factors constant in Weibull multiple regression, the hazard of HIV seroconversion was approximately twice as high in people who were currently unmarried but had a partner than among people who were currently married (P < 0.001) and increased with increasing distance from a government health clinic (P = 0.051) and decreasing distance from a primary road (P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

In this high HIV prevalence community in rural South Africa HIV incidence is very high. The present focus on antiretroviral treatment needs to be balanced with a renewed emphasis on HIV prevention for both sexes.

HIV in the workplace in Botswana: incidence, prevalence, and disease severity

Few detailed epidemiologic data exist regarding the impact of HIV infection on the workplace in the developing world. In addition, most HIV surveys examine only prevalence, without data on incidence or disease severity. In June 2003, we conducted a voluntary anonymous HIV serosurvey among employees of the Debswana Mining Company, the largest nongovernmental employer in Botswana. Among the 3558 participants, annual HIV incidence was estimated to be 3.4%, and HIV prevalence was 23.8%. HIV-infected participants had a median CD4(+) lymphocyte count of 427 cells/mm(3) (interquartile range 269-642), with 13.3% of samples <200 cells/mm(3). The high incidence and prevalence of HIV, and the proportion of workers with <200 CD4(+) lymphocytes/mm(3), demonstrate the impact of HIV infection in this workplace and the potential negative impact on productivity. These results highlight the need for routine HIV testing and access to antiretro-viral treatment for workers in countries such as Botswana.

Seroincidence of recent human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infections in China

A subtype B, E, and D immunoglobulin G capture immunoassay shows promise as a tool for estimating human immunodeficiency virus type 1 seroincidence from cross-sectional surveys, but the test-specific limitations suggest that an adjustment is necessary, and further validation of the assay with populations with divergent subtypes is needed.

Do Tests Devised to Detect Recent HIV-1 Infection Provide Reliable Estimates of Incidence in Africa?

The objective of this study was to assess the performance of 4 biologic tests designed to detect recent HIV-1 infections in estimating incidence in West Africa (BED, Vironostika, Avidity, and IDE-V3). These tests were assessed on a panel of 135 samples from 79 HIV-1-positive regular blood donors from Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, whose date of seroconversion was known (Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA et les Hépatites Virales 1220 cohort). The 135 samples included 26 from recently infected patients (< or =180 days), 94 from AIDS-free subjects with long-standing infection (>180 days), and 15 from patients with clinical AIDS. The performance of each assay in estimating HIV incidence was assessed through simulations. The modified commercial assays gave the best results for sensitivity (100% for both), and the IDE-V3 technique gave the best result for specificity (96.3%). In a context like Abidjan, with a 10% HIV-1 prevalence associated with a 1% annual incidence, the estimated test-specific annual incidence rates would be 1.2% (IDE-V3), 5.5% (Vironostika), 6.2% (BED), and 11.2% (Avidity). Most of the specimens falsely classified as incident cases were from patients infected for >180 days but <1 year. The authors conclude that none of the 4 methods could currently be used to estimate HIV-1 incidence routinely in Côte d'Ivoire but that further adaptations might enhance their accuracy.

A simple and inexpensive particle agglutination test to distinguish recent from established HIV-1 infection

OBJECTIVES

We sought to modify the Serodia HIV-1/HIV-2 particle agglutination assay (PA), a simple and cost-effective HIV assay that is used globally for the detection of HIV antibodies, as a sensitive/less sensitive test (S/LS) to identify recently infected individuals and to estimate HIV incidence.

METHODS

The Serodia PA test was modified as an S/LS test (PA-LS) by using HIV antigen-coated gelatin particles at a dilution of 1:68 and a specific diluent, and calibrated using 37 HIV clade B seroconversion panels (309 samples) from Trinidad and from a commercial source that were tested at dilution intervals from 1:10 to 1:80,000. The greatest sensitivity for correctly classifying samples from recent and established infections was determined by receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis.

RESULTS

At a 1:40,000 sample dilution and a days post-seroconversion cutoff of 190 days, the PA-LS test yielded a 97% sensitivity for classifying recent and established infection samples. Furthermore, at a 1:20,000 dilution, the positive predictive value for correctly identifying recently infected individuals was 99%. The PA-LS test offers a 30-44-fold cost saving over currently available S/LS tests.

CONCLUSION

A modified, low cost and simple-to-perform PA test is appropriate for use in resource-limited countries, and has exhibited excellence in distinguishing recent from established HIV infection.

Detection of acute HIV infections in an urban HIV counseling and testing population in the United States

The southeastern United States has an increasing burden of HIV, particularly among blacks, women, and men who have sex with men. To evaluate HIV nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) and antibody-based algorithms in determination of HIV incidence, detection of acute HIV infections, and surveillance of drug-resistant virus transmission in the urban southeastern United States, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis of prospectively collected data from 2202 adults receiving HIV testing and counseling at 3 sites in Atlanta, GA from October 2002 through January 2004. After standard testing with an HIV enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and Western blot confirmation, HIV-positive specimens were tested with 2 standardized assays to detect recent infection. HIV antibody-negative specimens were pooled and screened for HIV using NAAT. Seventy (3.2%) of 2202 subjects were HIV infected. Only 66 were positive on the standard HIV antibody test; 4 were antibody-negative but acutely HIV infected. The overall annual HIV incidence was 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4 to 1.8) based on the Vironostika-LS assay and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.6 to 2.1) based on the BED Incidence Enzyme Immunoassay (EIA). The prevalence of acute HIV infection was 1.8 per 1000 persons (95% CI: 0.7 to 4.6). The sensitivity of the current testing algorithm using an EIA and Western blot test for detectable infections was only 94.3% (95% CI: 86.2 to 97.8). All 3 of the acutely infected subjects genotyped had drug resistance mutations, and 1 had multiclass resistance. Adding NAAT-based screening to standard HIV antibody testing increased case identification by 6% and uncovered the first evidence of multidrug-resistant HIV transmission in Atlanta. Antibody tests alone are insufficient for public health practice in high-risk urban HIV testing settings.

Comparison of HIV type 1 incidence observed during longitudinal follow-up with incidence estimated by cross-sectional analysis using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay

The BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED CEIA) for recent infection was developed for the estimation of HIV-1 incidence in a population from a single cross-sectional survey. To evaluate performance, we applied the assay to specimen sets obtained from a longitudinal cohort study, the AIDSVAX B/B vaccine trial, in which there was an independent and conventional measure of observed incidence. The BED CEIA was performed on specimens obtained during follow-up for seroconversion conducted every 6 months for 3 years. There was excellent agreement between the observed and BED-estimated incidence for all the intervals. The cumulative, annualized incidence observed in the cohort was 3.10 new infections per 100 person-years (95% CI, 2.57-3.63). The corresponding BED-estimated incidence was 2.91 (2.30-3.53). We also estimated the effect of varied prevalence on a fixed incidence. Because some specimens from persons with longer-term infection are classified as recent by the assay, this can inflate the incidence estimate. We quantify this effect and discuss potential mitigation by excluding certain specimens on clinical grounds, by relying on trend differences rather than absolute incidence estimates, by secondary confirmatory testing, or by analytic adjustments for misclassification. Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation circumvents many of the drawbacks associated with longitudinal cohort studies, but there are test-specific limitations that should be considered in the design of population surveys.

Surveillance of the genetic variation in incident HIV, HCV, and HBV infections in blood and plasma donors: implications for blood safety, diagnostics, treatment, and molecular epidemiology

Surveillance for molecular variants in blood donors is vital to assuring that blood screening and supplemental assays are sensitive to circulating strains of blood-borne viruses. Blood screening and diagnostic assays licensed in the United States are largely based on prototype viral strains. Documentation of divergent viral strains in the donor pool can lead to accelerated development and licensure of robust serologic and nucleic acid amplification (NAT) assays for donor screening and diagnostic applications. In addition, surveillance for viral variants among donors has implications for assessing the prevalence of drug and vaccine escape mutants and for detecting and monitoring rare variants that may be newly introduced or increasing in the United States donor population. Combined NAT and serologic screening, supplemented by novel serologic testing strategies, can be used to identify donors with incident infections, which are of particular interest with respect to blood safety and public health implications. A systematic program is proposed for the genetic characterization of viral genomes in donors with incident HIV, HCV, or HBV infections.