An Approach to Checking Case-Crossover Analyses Based on Equivalence With Time-Series Methods

Efficiency of case-crossover versus time-series study designs for extreme heat exposures

Background

Time-stratified case-crossover (CC) and Poisson time series (TS) are two popular methods for relating acute health outcomes to time-varying ubiquitous environmental exposures. Our aim is to compare the performance of these methods in estimating associations with rare, extreme heat exposures and mortality-an increasingly relevant exposure in our changing climate.

Methods

Daily mortality data were simulated in various scenarios similar to observed Los Angeles County data from 2014 to 2019 (N = 367,712 deaths). We treated observed temperature as either a continuous or dichotomized variable and controlled for day of week and a smooth function of time. Five temperature dichotomization cutoffs between the 80th and 99th percentile were chosen to investigate the effects of extreme heat events. In each of 10,000 simulations, the CC and several TS models with varying degrees of freedom for time were fit to the data. We reported bias, variance, and relative efficiency (ratio of variance for a "reference" TS method to variance of another method) of temperature association estimates.

Results

CC estimates had larger uncertainty than TS methods, with the relative efficiency of CC ranging from 91% under the 80th percentile cutoff to 80% under the 99th percentile cutoff. As previously reported, methods best capturing data-generating time trends generally had the least bias. Additionally, TS estimates for observed Los Angeles data were larger with less uncertainty.

Conclusions

We provided new evidence that, compared with TS, CC has increasingly poor efficiency for rarer exposures in ecological study settings with shared, regional exposures, regardless of underlying time trends. Analysts should consider these results when applying either TS or CC methods.

A case-crossover analysis to quantify the impact of wildfire smoke on hospital respiratory admissions in the Rogue Valley, Oregon

Background

With the increasing prevalence of wildfire smoke in the Pacific Northwest, it is important to quantify health impacts to plan for adequate health services. The Rogue Valley region has historically faced some of the greatest wildfire threats in the state. Health impacts from smoke have been estimated in several recent studies that include Oregon's Rogue Valley, but the results between studies are conflicting.

Objective

The objective is to critically examine impacts of wildfire smoke on health in the Rogue Valley area and translate the results to support hospital staffing decisions.

Study design

The study adopts a case-crossover approach.

Methods

Apply a conditional Poisson regression to analyze time stratified counts while controlling for mean temperature.

Results

Every 10 μ/m3 increase in PM2.5 is associated with a 2% increase in same-day hospital or emergency room admission rates for respiratory conditions during fire season after adjusting for temperature and time (OR = 1.020; 95% CI: 1.004-1.034); a 10 μ/m3 increase in PM2.5 lasting nine days is associated with a 4% increase in admission rates (OR = 1.041; 95% CI: 1.018-1.065). In other words, for each 10 μ/m3 single day increase in pollution from smoke, an additional 0.26 respiratory patients would be expected in the area hospitals. With a single day increase from 10 μ/m3 to 150 μ/m3, hospitals could expect an additional four patients.

Conclusions

There are small but significant health impacts in the Rogue Valley. These impacts are smaller than some statewide estimates. We need further research to understand these differences.

Associations between Short-Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Influenza: An Individual-Level Case-Crossover Study in Guangzhou, China

BACKGROUND

Influenza imposes a heavy burden on public health. Little is known, however, of the associations between detailed measures of exposure to ambient air pollution and influenza at an individual level.

OBJECTIVE

We examined individual-level associations between six criteria air pollutants and influenza using case-crossover design.

METHODS

In this individual-level time-stratified case-crossover study, we linked influenza cases collected by the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2019 with individual residence-level exposure to particulate matter (PM 2.5 and PM 10 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ) and carbon monoxide (CO). The exposures were estimated for the day of onset of influenza symptoms (lag 0), 1-7 d before the onset (lags 1-7), as well as an 8-d moving average (lag07), using a random forest model and linked to study participants' home addresses. Conditional logistic regression was developed to investigate the associations between short-term exposure to air pollution and influenza, adjusting for mean temperature, relative humidity, public holidays, population mobility, and community influenza susceptibility.

RESULTS

N = 108,479 eligible cases were identified in our study. Every 10 - μ g / m 3 increase in exposure to PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO 2 , and CO and every 5 - μ g / m 3 increase in SO 2 over 8-d moving average (lag07) was associated with higher risk of influenza with a relative risk (RR) of 1.028 (95% CI: 1.018, 1.038), 1.041 (95% CI: 1.032, 1.049), 1.169 (95% CI: 1.151, 1.188), 1.004 (95% CI: 1.003, 1.006), and 1.134 (95% CI: 1.107, 1.163), respectively. There was a negative association between O 3 and influenza with a RR of 0.878 (95% CI: 0.866, 0.890).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that short-term exposure to air pollution, except for O 3 , is associated with greater risk for influenza. Further studies are necessary to decipher underlying mechanisms and design preventive interventions and policies. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12145.

Projections of Temperature-Related Suicide under Climate Change Scenarios in Japan

BACKGROUND

The impact of climate change on mental health largely remains to be evaluated. Although growing evidence has reported a short-term association between suicide and temperature, future projections of temperature-attributable suicide have not been thoroughly examined.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to project the excess temperature-related suicide mortality in Japan under three climate change scenarios until the 2090s.

METHODS

Daily time series of mean temperature and the number of suicide deaths in 1973-2015 were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan. A two-stage time-stratified case-crossover analysis was used to estimate the temperature-suicide association. We obtained the modeled daily temperature series using five general circulation models under three climate change scenarios from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. We projected the excess temperature-related suicide mortality until 2099 for each scenario and evaluated the net relative changes compared with the 2010s.

RESULTS

During 1973-2015, there was a total of 1,049,592 suicides in Japan. Net increases in temperature-related excess suicide mortality were estimated under all scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was 1.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.6, 2.4] for the intermediate-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), 0.6% (95% eCI: 0.1, 1.6) for a low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), and 2.4% (95% eCI: 0.7, 3.9) for the extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5). The increases were greater the more extreme the scenarios were, with the highest increase under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5).

DISCUSSION

This study indicates that Japan may experience a net increase in excess temperature-related suicide mortality, especially under the intermediate and extreme scenarios. The findings underscore the importance of mitigation policies. Further investigations of the future impacts of climate change on mental health including suicide are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11246.

Spatial distribution and driving factors of the associations between temperature and influenza-like illness in the United States: a time-stratified case-crossover study

BACKGROUND

Several previous studies investigated the associations between temperature and influenza in a single city or region without a national picture. The attributable risk of influenza due to temperature and the corresponding driving factors were unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution characteristics of attributable risk of Influenza-like illness (ILI) caused by adverse temperatures and explore the related driving factors in the United States.

METHODS

ILI, meteorological factors, and PM_2.5 of 48 states in the United States were collected during 2011-2019. The time-stratified case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model was carried out to evaluate the association between temperature and ILI at the state level. The multivariate meta-analysis was performed to obtain the combined effects at the national level. The attributable fraction (AF) was calculated to assess the ILI burden ascribed to adverse temperatures. The ordinary least square model (OLS), spatial lag model (SLM), and spatial error model (SEM) were utilized to identify driving factors.

RESULTS

A total of 7,716,115 ILI cases were included in this study. Overall, the temperature was negatively associated with ILI risk, and lower temperature gave rise to a higher risk of ILI. AF ascribed to adverse temperatures differed across states, from 49.44% (95% eCI: 36.47% ~ 58.68%) in Montana to 6.51% (95% eCI: -6.49% ~ 16.46%) in Wisconsin. At the national level, 29.08% (95% eCI: 27.60% ~ 30.24%) of ILI was attributable to cold. Per 10,000 dollars increase in per-capita income was associated with the increment in AF (OLS: β = -6.110, P = 0.021; SLM: β = -5.496, P = 0.022; SEM: β = -6.150, P = 0.022).

CONCLUSION

The cold could enhance the risk of ILI and result in a considerable proportion of ILI disease burden. The ILI burden attributed to cold varied across states and was higher in those states with lower economic status. Targeted prevention programs should be considered to lower the burden of influenza.

Association between ambient temperature and cause-specific cardiovascular disease admissions in Japan: A nationwide study

BACKGROUND

Substantial evidence suggests that non-optimal temperatures can increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and morbidity; however, limited studies have reported inconsistent results for hospital admissions depending on study locations, which also lack national-level investigations on cause-specific CVDs.

METHODS

We performed a two-stage meta-regression analysis to examine the short-term associations between temperature and acute CVD hospital admissions by specific categories [i.e., ischemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF), and stroke] in 47 prefectures of Japan from 2011 to 2018. First, we estimated the prefecture-specific associations using a time-stratified case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model. We then used a multivariate meta-regression model to obtain national average associations.

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 4,611,984 CVD admissions were reported. We found cold temperatures significantly increased the risk of total CVD admissions and cause-specific categories. Compared with the minimum hospitalization temperature (MHT) at the 98^th percentile of temperature (29.9 °C), the cumulative relative risks (RRs) for cold (5^th percentile, 1.7 °C) and heat (99^th percentile, 30.5 °C) on total CVD were 1.226 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.195, 1.258] and 1.000 (95% CI: 0.998, 1.002), respectively. The RR for cold on HF [RR = 1.571 (95% CI: 1.487, 1.660)] was higher than those of IHD [RR = 1.119 (95% CI: 1.040, 1.204)] and stroke [RR = 1.107 (95% CI: 1.062, 1.155)], comparing to their cause-specific MHTs. We also observed that extreme heat increased the risk of HF with RR of 1.030 (95% CI: 1.007, 1.054). Subgroup analysis showed that the age group ≥85 years was more vulnerable to these non-optimal temperature risks.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicated that cold and heat exposure could increase the risk of hospital admissions for CVD, varying depending on the cause-specific categories, which may provide new evidence to reduce the burden of CVD.

Confounding by Conception Seasonality in Studies of Temperature and Preterm Birth: A Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

Seasonal patterns of conception may confound acute associations between birth outcomes and seasonally varying exposures. We aim to evaluate four epidemiologic designs (time-stratified case-crossover, time-series, pair-matched case-control, and time-to-event) commonly used to study acute associations between ambient temperature and preterm births.

METHODS

We conducted simulations assuming no effect of temperature on preterm birth. We generated pseudo-birth data from the observed seasonal patterns of birth in the United States and analyzed them in relation to observed temperatures using design-specific seasonality adjustments.

RESULTS

Using the case-crossover approach (time-stratified by calendar month), we observed a bias (among 1,000 replicates) = 0.016 (Monte-Carlo standard error 95% CI: 0.015-0.018) in the regression coefficient for every 10°C increase in mean temperature in the warm season (May-September). Unbiased estimates obtained using the time-series approach required accounting for both the pregnancies-at-risk and their weighted probability of birth. Notably, adding the daily weighted probability of birth from the time-series models to the case-crossover models corrected the bias in the case-crossover approach. In the pair-matched case-control design, where the exposure period was matched on gestational window, we observed no bias. The time-to-event approach was also unbiased but was more computationally intensive than others.

CONCLUSIONS

Most designs can be implemented in a way that yields estimates unbiased by conception seasonality. The time-stratified case-crossover design exhibited a small positive bias, which could contribute to, but not fully explain, previously reported associations.

Ambient Temperature and External Causes of Death in Japan from 1979 to 2015: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Analysis

BACKGROUND

Although substantial evidence suggests that high and low temperatures are adversely associated with nonaccidental mortality, few studies have focused on exploring the risks of temperature on external causes of death.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the short-term associations between temperature and external causes of death and four specific categories (suicide, transport, falls, and drowning) in 47 prefectures of Japan from 1979 to 2015.

METHODS

We conducted a two-stage meta-regression analysis. First, we performed time-stratified case-crossover analyses with a distributed lag nonlinear model to examine the association between temperature and mortality due to external causes for each prefecture. We then used a multivariate meta-regression model to combine the association estimates across all prefectures in Japan. In addition, we performed stratified analyses for the associations by sex and age.

RESULTS

A total of 2,416,707 external causes of death were included in the study. We found a J-shaped exposure-response curve for all external causes of death, in which the risks increased for mild cold temperatures [20th percentile; relative risk (RR)=1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05,1.12)] and extreme heat [99th percentile; RR=1.24 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.29)] compared with those for minimum mortality temperature (MMT). However, the shapes of the exposure-response curves varied according to four subcategories. The risks of suicide and transport monotonically increased as temperature increased, with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.26, 1.45) and 1.60 (95% CI: 1.35, 1.90), respectively, for heat, whereas J- and U-shaped curves were observed for falls and drowning, with RRs of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.26) and 1.95 (95% CI: 1.70, 2.23) for heat and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.26) and 2.33 (95% CI: 1.89, 2.88) for cold, respectively, compared with those for cause-specific MMTs. The sex- and age-specific associations varied considerably depending on the specific causes.

DISCUSSION

Both low and high temperatures may be important drivers of increased risk of external causes of death. We suggest that preventive measures against external causes of death should be considered in adaptation policies. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9943.

Nonlinear temperature-suicide association in Japan from 1972 to 2015: Its heterogeneity and the role of climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors

It has been reported that suicide is associated with ambient temperature; however, the heterogeneity in this association and its underlying factors have not been extensively investigated. Therefore, we investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the temperature-suicide association and examined climatic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors that may underlie such heterogeneity. We analyzed the daily time-series data for the suicide counts and ambient temperature, which were collected for the 47 prefectures of Japan from 1972 to 2015, using a two-stage analysis. In the first stage, the prefecture-specific temperature-suicide association was estimated by using a generalized linear model. In the second stage, the prefecture-specific associations were pooled, and key factors explaining the spatial and temporal variation were identified by using mixed effects meta-regression. Results showed that there is an inverted J-shape nonlinear association between temperature and suicide; the suicide risk increased with temperature but leveled off above 24.4 °C. The nationwide relative risk (RR) for the maximum suicide temperature versus 5th temperature percentile (2.9 °C) was estimated as 1.26 (95% CI: 1.22, 1.29). The RRs were larger for females than for males (1.32 vs. 1.22) and larger for elderly people (≥65 y) than for the non-elderly (15-64 y) (1.51 vs. 1.18). The RRs were larger for rural prefectures, which are characterized by smaller population, higher proportions of females and elderly people, and lower levels of financial capability and the proportion of highly educated people. The RRs were also larger in colder and less humid prefectures. These findings may help in understanding the potential mechanism of the temperature-suicide association and projecting the future risk of suicide under climate change.

Acute associations between PM2.5 and ozone concentrations and asthma exacerbations among patients with and without allergic comorbidities

Acute effects of outdoor air pollution on asthma exacerbations may vary by asthma phenotype (allergic vs nonallergic). Associations of ambient PM_2.5 and ozone concentrations with acute asthma visits (office, urgent, emergency, and hospitalization) were investigated using electronic medical records. International Classification of Disease codes were used to identify asthmatics, and classify them based on the presence or absence of an allergic comorbidity in their medical records. Daily 24-h average PM_2.5, 8-h maximum ozone, and mean temperature were obtained from a centralized monitor. Using a time-stratified case-crossover approach, pollutant concentrations were modeled using moving averages and distributed lag nonlinear models (lag 0-6) to examine lag associations and nonlinear concentration-response. The adjusted odds ratios for a 10 µg/m³ increase in 3-day moving average (lag 0-2) PM_2.5 in the two-pollutant models among patients with and without allergic comorbidities were 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07, 1.13) and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.09), respectively; and for a 20 ppb increase in 3-day moving average (lag 0-2) ozone were 1.08 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.14) and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.05), respectively. Estimated odds ratios among patients with allergic comorbidities were consistently higher across age, sex, and temperature categories. Asthmatics with an allergic comorbidity may be more susceptible to ambient PM_2.5 and ozone.

Hot and cold weather based on the spatial synoptic classification and cause-specific mortality in Sweden: a time-stratified case-crossover study

The spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is a holistic categorical assessment of the daily weather conditions at specific locations; it is a useful tool for assessing weather effects on health. In this study, we assessed (a) the effect of hot weather types and the duration of heat events on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in summer and (b) the effect of cold weather types and the duration of cold events on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in winter. A time-stratified case-crossover design combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model was carried out to investigate the association of weather types with cause-specific mortality in two southern (Skåne and Stockholm) and two northern (Jämtland and Västerbotten) locations in Sweden. During summer, in the southern locations, the Moist Tropical (MT) and Dry Tropical (DT) weather types increased cardiovascular and respiratory mortality at shorter lags; both hot weather types substantially increased respiratory mortality mainly in Skåne. The impact of heat events on mortality by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was more important in the southern than in the northern locations at lag 0. The cumulative effect of MT, DT and heat events lagged over 14 days was particularly high for respiratory mortality in all locations except in Jämtland, though these did not show a clear effect on cardiovascular mortality. During winter, the dry polar and moist polar weather types and cold events showed a negligible effect on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. This study provides valuable information about the relationship between hot oppressive weather types with cause-specific mortality; however, the cold weather types may not capture sufficiently effects on cause-specific mortality in this sub-Arctic region.

Optimising the case-crossover design for use in shared exposure settings

With a case-crossover design, a case's exposure during a risk period is compared to the case's exposures at referent periods. The selection of referents for this self-controlled design is determined by the referent selection strategy (RSS). Previous research mainly focused on systematic bias associated with the RSS. We additionally focused on how RSS determines the number of referents per risk, sensitivity to overdispersion and time-varying confounding.

We illustrated the consequences of different RSS using a simulation study informed by data on meteorological variables and Legionnaires’ disease. By randomising the events and exposure time series, we explored statistical power associated with time-stratified and fixed bidirectional RSS and their susceptibility to systematic bias and confounding bias. In addition, we investigated how a high number of events on the same date (e.g. outbreaks) affected coefficient estimation. As illustrated by our work, referent selection alone can be insufficient to control for a time-varying confounding bias. In contrast to systematic bias, confounding bias can be hard to detect. We studied potential solutions: varying the model parameters and link-function, outlier-removal and aggregating the input-data over smaller areas. Our simulation study offers a framework for researchers looking to detect and to avoid bias in case-crossover studies.

Exposure to air pollution and risk of hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases amongst Vietnamese adults: Case-crossover study

BACKGROUND

Associations between hospital admissions and ambient air pollutants in the Vietnamese population have been reported in previous studies. However, most studies were conducted in Hanoi or Hochiminh city. We used hospital records of seven hospitals in Northern Vietnam to investigate short-term associations between ambient air pollutants and hospital admissions due to cardiovascular conditions.

METHODS

We used 135'101 hospital records of residents (age ≥15) living in three provinces (Hanoi, Quang Ninh, and Phu Tho) and daily ambient air pollutant concentrations to estimate percentage changes and 95% confidence intervals for hospital admissions due to seven cardiovascular conditions per interquartile range (IQR) increases in daily ambient air pollutants. We used a time-stratified case-crossover analysis adjusting for meteorological factors, indicators of holidays and influenza epidemics. We also investigated modification of effects by age groups (<65 and ≥65), seasons (cold and hot) and hospital levels (national and province level).

RESULTS

Particulate matter concentrations were positively associated with daily hospital admissions due to most cardiovascular conditions. For example, an increment in the two-day average (lag1-2) level of PM_2.5 by one IQR (34.4 µg/m³) was associated with a 6.3% (95%CI: 3.0%-9.8%) increase in the daily count of admissions for ischemic heart disease in Hanoi and with 23.2% (95%CI: 11.1%-36.5%) for cardiac failure in Quang Ninh. Moreover, hospitalisations for stroke in Hanoi and cardiac failure in Phu Tho showed strong positive associations with SO₂. The findings also show that estimates varied by age groups, seasons and hospital levels.

CONCLUSION

Ambient air pollutants were associated with daily cardiovascular admissions in Northern Vietnam. The findings underline the important role of ambient air pollutants as a trigger of cardiovascular conditions.

Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-Country Multi-City Study

BACKGROUND

Previous literature suggests that higher ambient temperature may play a role in increasing the risk of suicide. However, no multi-country study has explored the shape of the association and the role of moderate and extreme heat across different locations.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the short-term temperature-suicide relationship using daily time-series data collected for 341 locations in 12 countries for periods ranging from 4 to 40 y.

METHODS

We conducted a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we performed location-specific time-stratified case-crossover analyses to examine the temperature-suicide association for each location. Then, we used a multivariate meta-regression to combine the location-specific lag-cumulative nonlinear associations across all locations and by country.

RESULTS

A total of 1,320,148 suicides were included in this study. Higher ambient temperature was associated with an increased risk of suicide in general, and we observed a nonlinear association (inverted J-shaped curve) with the highest risk at 27°C. The relative risk (RR) for the highest risk was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.36) compared with the risk at the first percentile. Country-specific results showed that the nonlinear associations were more obvious in northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). The temperature with the highest risk of suicide ranged from the 87th to 88th percentiles in the northeast Asian countries, whereas this value was the 99th percentile in Western countries (Canada, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States) and South Africa, where nearly linear associations were estimated. The country-specific RRs ranged from 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.44) in the United States to 1.65 (95% CI: 1.40, 1.93) in Taiwan, excluding countries where the results were substantially uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Our findings showed that the risk of suicide increased with increasing ambient temperature in many countries, but to varying extents and not necessarily linearly. This temperature-suicide association should be interpreted cautiously, and further evidence of the relationship and modifying factors is needed. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4898.

Effects of ambient carbon monoxide on daily hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease: a time-stratified case-crossover study of 460,938 cases in Beijing, China from 2013 to 2017

BACKGROUND

Evidence focused on exposure to ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and the risk of hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is lacking in developing countries. This study aimed to examine the effect of CO exposure on hospitalizations for CVD in Beijing, China.

METHODS

A total of 460,938 hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases were obtained from electronic hospitalization summary reports from 2013 to 2017. A time-stratified case-crossover design was conducted to investigate the association between CO exposure and hospitalizations for total and cause-specific CVD, including coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF), and heart failure (HF). Stratified analysis was also conducted by age group (18-64 years and ≥ 65 years) and sex.

RESULTS

Linear exposure-response curves for the association between ambient CO exposure and hospitalizations for CVD was observed. Ambient CO was positively associated with hospitalizations for total CVD and CHD. However, the observed increased risk was not statistically significant for hospitalizations for AF and HF. The strongest effect of CO concentration was observed on the current- and previous-day of exposure (lag _0-1 day). For a 1 mg/m³ increase in a 2-day moving average CO concentration, an increase of 2.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.2 to 3.3%] and 3.0% (95% CI: 2.4 to 3.6%) in daily hospital admissions for CVD and CHD were estimated, respectively. This association was robust after adjusting for other copollutants and did not vary by age group and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Ambient CO exposure increased the risk of hospitalizations for CVD, especially for CHD in Beijing. Further studies are warranted to explore the association between ambient CO and hospitalizations for AF and HF.

Eliminating systematic bias from case-crossover designs

Case-crossover designs have been widely applied to epidemiological and medical investigations of associations between short-term exposures and risk of acute adverse health events. Much effort has been made in literature on understanding source of confounding and reducing systematic bias by reference-select strategies. In this paper, we explored the nature of bias in the ambi-directional and time-stratified case-crossover designs via simulation using actual air pollution data from urban Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. We further proposed a calibration approach for eliminating systematic bias in estimates (coefficient estimate, 95% confident interval, and p-value). Bias check for coefficient estimation, size check and power check for significance test were done via simulation experiments to show advantages of the calibrated case-crossover studies over the ones without calibration. An application was done to investigate associations between air pollutants and acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations in urban Edmonton. In conclusion, systematic bias in a case-crossover design is often unavoidable, leading to an obvious bias in the estimated effect and an unreliable p value in the significance test. The proposed calibration technique provides an efficient approach to eliminating systematic bias in a case-crossover study.

Associations between ambient air pollution and daily mortality in a cohort of congestive heart failure: Case-crossover and nested case-control analyses using a distributed lag nonlinear model

BACKGROUND

Persons with congestive heart failure may be at higher risk of the acute effects related to daily fluctuations in ambient air pollution. To meet some of the limitations of previous studies using grouped-analysis, we developed a cohort study of persons with congestive heart failure to estimate whether daily non-accidental mortality were associated with spatially-resolved, daily exposures to ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and ozone (O₃), and whether these associations were modified according to a series of indicators potentially reflecting complications or worsening of health.

METHODS

We constructed the cohort from the linkage of administrative health databases. Daily exposure was assigned from different methods we developed previously to predict spatially-resolved, time-dependent concentrations of ambient NO₂ (all year) and O₃ (warm season) at participants' residences. We performed two distinct types of analyses: a case-crossover that contrasts the same person at different times, and a nested case-control that contrasts different persons at similar times. We modelled the effects of air pollution and weather (case-crossover only) on mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models over lags 0 to 3 days. We developed from administrative health data a series of indicators that may reflect the underlying construct of "declining health", and used interactions between these indicators and the cross-basis function for air pollutant to assess potential effect modification.

RESULTS

The magnitude of the cumulative as well as the lag-specific estimates of association differed in many instances according to the metric of exposure. Using the back-extrapolation method, which is our preferred exposure model, we found for the case-crossover design a cumulative mean percentage changes (MPC) in daily mortality per interquartile increment in NO₂ (8.8 ppb) of 3.0% (95% CI: -0.4, 6.6%) and for O₃ (16.5 ppb) 3.5% (95% CI: -4.5, 12.1). For O₃ there was strong confounding by weather (unadjusted MPC = 7.1%; 95% CI: 1.7, 12.7%). For the nested case-control approach the cumulative MPC for NO₂ in daily mortality was 2.9% (95% CI: -0.9, 6.9%) and for O₃ 7.3% (95% CI: 3.0, 11.9%). We found evidence of effect modification between daily mortality and cumulative NO₂ and O₃ according to the prescribed dose of furosemide in the nested case-control analysis, but not in the case-crossover analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality in congestive heart failure was associated with exposure to daily ambient NO₂ and O₃ predicted from a back-extrapolation method using a land use regression model from dense sampling surveys. The methods used to assess exposure can have considerable influence on the estimated acute health effects of the two air pollutants.

Air Pollution and Suicide in 10 Cities in Northeast Asia: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Analysis

BACKGROUND

There is growing evidence suggesting an association between air pollution and suicide. However, previous findings varied depending on the type of air pollutant and study location.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the association between air pollutants and suicide in 10 large cities in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.

METHODS

We used a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis to estimate the short-term association between nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and particulate matter [aerodynamic diameter ≤10μm (PM₁₀), aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5μm (PM_2.5), and PM_10–2.5] and suicide, adjusted for weather factors, day-of-week, long-term time trends, and season. Then, we conducted a meta-analysis to combine the city-specific effect estimates for NO₂, SO₂, and PM₁₀ across 10 cities and for PM_2.5 and PM_10–2.5 across 3 cities. We first fitted single-pollutant models, followed by two-pollutant models to examine the robustness of the associations.

RESULTS

Higher risk of suicide was associated with higher levels of NO₂, SO₂, PM₁₀, and PM_10–2.5 over multiple days. The combined relative risks (RRs) were 1.019 for NO₂ (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.999, 1.039), 1.020 for SO₂ (95% CI: 1.005, 1.036), 1.016 for PM₁₀ (95% CI: 1.004, 1.029), and 1.019 for PM_10–2.5 (95% CI: 1.005, 1.033) per interquartile range (IQR) increase in the 0-1 d average level of each pollutant. We found no evidence of an association for PM_2.5. Some of the associations, particularly for SO₂ and NO₂, were attenuated after adjusting for a second pollutant.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that higher levels of air pollution may be associated with suicide, and further research is merited to understand the underlying mechanisms. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2223.

Acute Effects of Nitrogen Dioxide on Cardiovascular Mortality in Beijing: An Exploration of Spatial Heterogeneity and the District-specific Predictors

The exploration of spatial variation and predictors of the effects of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) on fatal health outcomes is still sparse. In a multilevel case-crossover study in Beijing, China, we used mixed Cox proportional hazard model to examine the citywide effects and conditional logistic regression to evaluate the district-specific effects of NO₂ on cardiovascular mortality. District-specific predictors that could be related to the spatial pattern of NO₂ effects were examined by robust regression models. We found that a 10 μg/m³ increase in daily mean NO₂ concentration was associated with a 1.89% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.33–2.45%], 2.07% (95% CI: 1.23–2.91%) and 1.95% (95% CI: 1.16–2.72%) increase in daily total cardiovascular (lag03), cerebrovascular (lag03) and ischemic heart disease (lag02) mortality, respectively. For spatial variation of NO₂ effects across 16 districts, significant effects were only observed in 5, 4 and 2 districts for the above three outcomes, respectively. Generally, NO₂ was likely having greater adverse effects on districts with larger population, higher consumption of coal and more civilian vehicles. Our results suggested independent and spatially varied effects of NO₂ on total and subcategory cardiovascular mortalities. The identification of districts with higher risk can provide important insights for reducing NO₂ related health hazards.

Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure and Risk of Cardiovascular Mortality: Adjustment of the Meteorological Factors

Few studies have explicitly explored the impacts of the extensive adjustment (with a lag period of more than one week) of temperature and humidity on the association between ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and cardiovascular mortality. In a time stratified case-crossover study, we used a distributed lag nonlinear model to assess the impacts of extensive adjustments of temperature and humidity for longer lag periods (for 7, 14, 21, 28 and 40 days) on effects of PM_2.5 on total cardiovascular mortality and mortality of cerebrovascular and ischemic heart disease and corresponding exposure-response relationships in Beijing, China, between 2008 and 2011. Compared with results only controlled for temperature and humidity for 2 days, the estimated effects of PM_2.5 were smaller and magnitudes of exposure-response curves were decreased when longer lag periods of temperature and relative humidity were included for adjustments, but these changes varied across subpopulation, with marked decreases occurring in males and the elderly who are more susceptible to PM_2.5-related mortalities. Our findings suggest that the adjustment of meteorological factors using lag periods shorter than one week may lead to overestimated effects of PM_2.5. The associations of PM_2.5 with cardiovascular mortality in susceptible populations were more sensitive to further adjustments for temperature and relative humidity.

Air pollution and mortality: effect modification by personal characteristics and specific cause of death in a case-only study

Short-term effects of air pollution on mortality have been well documented in the literature worldwide. Less is known about which subpopulations are more vulnerable to air pollution. We conducted a case-only study in Hong Kong to examine the potential effect modification by personal characteristics and specific causes of death. Individual information of 402,184 deaths of non-external causes and daily mean concentrations of air pollution were collected from 2001 to 2011. For a 10 μg/m(3) increase of pollution concentration, people aged ≥ ∇65 years (compared with younger ages) had a 0.9-1.8% additional increase in mortality related to PM, NO2, and SO2. People dying from cardiorespiratory diseases (compared with other non-external causes) had a 1.6-2.3% additional increase in PM and NO2 related mortality. Other subgroups that were particularly susceptible were females and those economically inactive. Lower socioeconomic status and causes of cardiorespiratory diseases would increase the likelihood of death associated with air pollution.

Health impact assessment of traffic noise in Madrid (Spain)

The relationship between environmental noise and health has been examined in depth. In view of the sheer number of persons exposed, attention should be focused on road traffic noise. The city of Madrid (Spain) is a densely populated metropolitan area in which 80% of all environmental noise exposure is attributed to traffic. The aim of this study was to quantify avoidable deaths resulting from reducing the impact of equivalent diurnal noise levels (LeqD) on daily cardiovascular and respiratory mortality among people aged ≥65 years in Madrid. A health impact assessment of (average 24h) LeqD and PM2.5 levels was conducted by using previously reported risk estimates of mortality rates for the period 2003-2005: For cardiovascular causes: LeqD 1.048 (1.005, 1.092) and PM2.5 1.041(1.020, 1.062) and for respiratory causes: LeqD 1.060 (1.000, 1.123) and PM2.5 1.030 (1.000, 1.062). The association found between LeqD exposure and mortality for both causes suggests an important health effect. A reduction of 1dB(A) in LeqD implies an avoidable annual mortality of 284 (31, 523) cardiovascular- and 184 (0, 190) respiratory-related deaths in the study population. The magnitude of the health impact is similar to reducing average PM2.5 levels by 10µg/m(3). Regardless of air pollution, exposure to traffic noise should be considered an important environmental factor having a significant impact on health.

The association of cold weather and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the island of Ireland between 1984 and 2007

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to assess the relationship between cold temperature and daily mortality in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI), and to explore any differences in the population responses between the two jurisdictions.

METHODS

A time-stratified case-crossover approach was used to examine this relationship in two adult national populations, between 1984 and 2007. Daily mortality risk was examined in association with exposure to daily maximum temperatures on the same day and up to 6 weeks preceding death, during the winter (December-February) and an extended cold period (October-March), using distributed lag models. Model stratification by age and gender assessed for modification of the cold weather-mortality relationship.

RESULTS

In the ROI, the impact of cold weather in winter persisted up to 35 days, with a cumulative mortality increase for all-causes of 6.4% (95% CI = 4.8%-7.9%) in relation to every 1°C drop in daily maximum temperature, similar increases for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke, and twice as much for respiratory causes. In NI, these associations were less pronounced for CVD causes, and overall extended up to 28 days. Effects of cold weather on mortality increased with age in both jurisdictions, and some suggestive gender differences were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

The study findings indicated strong cold weather-mortality associations in the island of Ireland; these effects were less persistent, and for CVD mortality, smaller in NI than in the ROI. Together with suggestive differences in associations by age and gender between the two Irish jurisdictions, the findings suggest potential contribution of underlying societal differences, and require further exploration. The evidence provided here will hope to contribute to the current efforts to modify fuel policy and reduce winter mortality in Ireland.

Which specific causes of death are associated with short term exposure to fine and coarse particles in Southern Europe? Results from the MED-PARTICLES project

We investigated the short-term effects of particles with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5μm (PM2.5), between 2.5 and 10μm (PM2.5-10) and less than 10μm (PM10) on deaths from diabetes, cardiac and cerebrovascular causes, lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in 10 European Mediterranean metropolitan areas participating in the MED-PARTICLES project during 2001-2010. In the first stage of the analysis, data from each city were analyzed separately using Poisson regression models, whereas in the second stage, the city-specific air pollution estimates were combined to obtain overall estimates. We investigated the effects following immediate (lags 0-1), delayed (lags 2-5) and prolonged exposure (lags 0-5) and effect modification patterns by season. We evaluated the sensitivity of our results to co-pollutant exposures or city-specific model choice. We applied threshold models to investigate the pattern of selected associations. For a 10μg/m(3) increase in two days' PM2.5 exposure there was a 1.23% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): -1.63%, 4.17%) increase in diabetes deaths, while six days' exposure statistically significantly increased cardiac deaths by 1.33% (95% CI: 0.27, 2.40%), COPD deaths by 2.53% (95% CI: -0.01%, 5.14%) and LRTI deaths by 1.37% (95% CI: -1.94%, 4.78%). PM2.5 results were robust to co-pollutant adjustments and alternative modeling approaches. Stronger effects were observed in the warm season. Coarse particles displayed positive, even if not statistically significant, associations with mortality due to diabetes and cardiac causes that were more variable depending on exposure period, co-pollutant and seasonality adjustment. Our findings provide support for positive associations between PM2.5 and mortality due to diabetes, cardiac causes, COPD, and to a lesser degree to cerebrovascular causes, in the European Mediterranean region, which seem to drive the particles short-term health effects.

Susceptibility to mortality related to temperature and heat and cold wave duration in the population of Stockholm County, Sweden

Background

Ambient temperatures can cause an increase in mortality. A better understanding is needed of how health status and other factors modify the risk associated with high and low temperatures, to improve the basis of preventive measures. Differences in susceptibility to temperature and to heat and cold wave duration are relatively unexplored.

Objectives

We studied the associations between mortality and temperature and heat and cold wave duration, stratified by age and individual and medical factors.

Methods

Deaths among all residents of Stockholm County between 1990 and 2002 were linked to discharge diagnosis data from hospital admissions, and associations were examined using the time stratified case-crossover design. Analyses were stratified by gender, age, pre-existing disease, country of origin, and municipality level wealth, and adjusted for potential confounding factors.

Results

The effect on mortality by heat wave duration was higher for lower ages, in areas with lower wealth, for hospitalized patients younger than age 65. Odds were elevated among females younger than age 65, in groups with a previous hospital admission for mental disorders, and in persons with previous cardiovascular disease. Gradual increases in summer temperatures were associated with mortality in people older than 80 years, and with mortality in groups with a previous myocardial infarction and with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the population younger than 65 years. During winter, mortality was associated with a decrease in temperature particularly in men and with the duration of cold spells for the population older than 80. A history of hospitalization for myocardial infarction increased the odds associated with cold temperatures among the population older than 65. Previous mental disease or substance abuse increased the odds of death among the population younger than 65.

Conclusion

To increase effectiveness, we suggest preventive efforts should not assume susceptible groups are the same for warm and cold days and heat and cold waves, respectively.

Noise levels and cardiovascular mortality: a case-crossover analysis

BACKGROUND

The relationship between occupational noise and cardiovascular outcomes has been widely investigated. Regarding environmental noise levels, the attention is focused on road traffic noise due to the large number of exposed persons and the large periods of exposure. There are few studies assessing the short-term effects of traffic noise on cardiovascular outcomes. The aim of this study was to quantify the short-term effects of urban noise levels on age-specific cardiovascular mortality.

METHODS

A case-crossover design was used. Daily mortality counts in Madrid city due to cardiovascular causes (ICD codes: 390-459) from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2005 were obtained. Data noise levels were collected as diurnal equivalent noise (Leqd8-22 h), night equivalent noise (Leqn22-8 h), and daily equivalent noise (Leq24 h). Confounding variables as daily levels of air pollutants, temperature, and relative humidity data were controlled. Overdispersed Poisson regression models were adjusted to control for both seasonality and time trends. Estimated effects are reported as percentage increase in the relative risk (IRR) associated with an increase of 1 dBA.

RESULTS

The strongest associations between all noise exposure levels and cardiovascular mortality were reported at lag 1: IRR 4.5% (95% CI 0.6, 8.7%), IRR 3.9% (95% CI 0.6, 7.3%), and IRR 6.2% (95% CI 2.1, 10.6%) for Leqd, Leqn, and Leq24, respectively. Analysing by age-specific groups at lag 1, statistically significant associations were found for those aged ≥65: 4.5% (95% CI 0.3, 8.9%), 3.4% (95% CI 0.1, 6.9%), and 6.6% (95% CI 2.2, 11.1%) for Leqd, Leqn, and Leq24, with no substantial changes in the effects of noise exposure levels at lag 1 after adjusting for PM2.5 and NO2.

CONCLUSION

The association found between noise exposure levels and cardiovascular mortality suggests a joint effect of diurnal and night-time noise levels. Our results also reveal independent effects of noise exposure levels and the air pollutants analysed. This strongly suggests the need to seriously consider the high noise exposure levels reported as an important public health issue.

Air pollution and hospital emergency room and admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Doña Ana County, New Mexico

INTRODUCTION

Doña Ana County in New Mexico regularly experiences severe air pollution episodes associated with windblown dust and fires. Residents of Hispanic/Latino origin constitute the largest population group in the region. We investigated the associations of ambient particulate matter and ozone with hospital emergency room and admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular visits in adults.

METHODS

We used trajectories regression analysis to determine the local and regional components of particle mass and ozone. We applied Poisson generalized models to analyze hospital emergency room visits and admissions adjusted for pollutant levels, humidity, temperature and temporal and seasonal effects.

RESULTS

We found that the sources within 500km of the study area accounted for most of particle mass and ozone concentrations. Sources in Southeast Texas, Baja California and Southwest US were the most important regional contributors. Increases of cardiovascular emergency room visits were estimated for PM10 (3.1% (95% CI: -0.5 to 6.8)) and PM10-2.5 (2.8% (95% CI: -0.2 to 5.9)) for all adults during the warm period (April-September). When high PM10 (>150μg/m(3)) mass concentrations were excluded, strong effects for respiratory emergency room visits for both PM10 (3.2% (95% CI: 0.5-6.0)) and PM2.5 (5.2% (95% CI: -0.5 to 11.3)) were computed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis indicated effects of PM10, PM2.5 and O3 on emergency room visits during the April-September period in a region impacted by windblown dust and wildfires.

Associations between fine and coarse particles and mortality in Mediterranean cities: results from the MED-PARTICLES project

BACKGROUND

Few studies have investigated the independent health effects of different size fractions of particulate matter (PM) in multiple locations, especially in Europe.

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the short-term effects of PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), and between 2.5 and 10 μm (PM2.5-10) on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in 10 European Mediterranean metropolitan areas within the MED-PARTICLES project.

METHODS

We analyzed data from each city using Poisson regression models, and combined city-specific estimates to derive overall effect estimates. We evaluated the sensitivity of our estimates to co-pollutant exposures and city-specific model choice, and investigated effect modification by age, sex, and season. We applied distributed lag and threshold models to investigate temporal patterns of associations.

RESULTS

A 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with a 0.55% (95% CI: 0.27, 0.84%) increase in all-cause mortality (0-1 day cumulative lag), and a 1.91% increase (95% CI: 0.71, 3.12%) in respiratory mortality (0-5 day lag). In general, associations were stronger for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality than all-cause mortality, during warm versus cold months, and among those ≥ 75 versus < 75 years of age. Associations with PM2.5-10 were positive but not statistically significant in most analyses, whereas associations with PM10 seemed to be driven by PM2.5.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence of adverse effects of PM2.5 on mortality outcomes in the European Mediterranean region. Associations with PM2.5-10 were positive but smaller in magnitude. Associations were stronger for respiratory mortality when cumulative exposures were lagged over 0-5 days, and were modified by season and age.

Cause-specific hospital admissions on hot days in Sydney, Australia

Background

While morbidity outcomes for major disease categories during extreme heat have received increasing research attention, there has been very limited investigation at the level of specific disease subcategories.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular (CVD), respiratory (RD), genitourinary (GU) and mental diseases (MD), diabetes (DIA), dehydration (DEH) and ‘the effects of heat and light’ (HEAT) in Sydney between 1991 and 2009. We further investigated the sensitivity to heat of subcategories within the major disease groups. We defined hot days as those with temperatures in the 95^th and 99^th percentiles within the study period. We applied time-stratified case-crossover analysis to compare the hospital admissions on hot days with those on non-hot days matched by day of the week. We calculated the odds ratios (OR) of admissions between the two types of days, accounting for other environmental variables (relative humidity, ozone and particulate matter) and non-environmental trends (public and school holidays). On hot days, hospital admissions increased for all major categories except GU. This increase was not shared homogeneously across all diseases within a major category: within RD, only ‘other diseases of the respiratory system’ (includes pleurisy or empyema) increased significantly, while admissions for asthma decreased. Within MD, hospital admissions increased only for psychoses. Admissions due to some major categories increased one to three days after a hot day (e.g., DIA, RD and CVD) and on two and three consecutive days (e.g., HEAT and RD).

Conclusions/Significance

High ambient temperatures were associated with increased hospital admissions for several disease categories, with some within-category variation. Future analyses should focus on subgroups within broad disease categories to pinpoint medical conditions most affected by ambient heat.

Ambient air pollution exposure and respiratory, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality in Cape Town, South Africa: 2001–2006

Little evidence is available on the strength of the association between ambient air pollution exposure and health effects in developing countries such as South Africa. The association between the 24-h average ambient PM₁₀, SO₂ and NO₂ levels and daily respiratory (RD), cardiovascular (CVD) and cerebrovascular (CBD) mortality in Cape Town (2001–2006) was investigated with a case-crossover design. For models that included entire year data, an inter-quartile range (IQR) increase in PM₁₀ (12 mg/m³) and NO₂ (12 mg/m³) significantly increased CBD mortality by 4% and 8%, respectively. A significant increase of 3% in CVD mortality was observed per IQR increase in NO₂ and SO₂ (8 mg/m³). In the warm period, PM₁₀ was significantly associated with RD and CVD mortality. NO₂ had significant associations with CBD, RD and CVD mortality, whilst SO₂ was associated with CVD mortality. None of the pollutants were associated with any of the three outcomes in the cold period. Susceptible groups depended on the cause-specific mortality and air pollutant. There is significant RD, CVD and CBD mortality risk associated with ambient air pollution exposure in South Africa, higher than reported in developed countries.

Ambient temperature and coronary heart disease mortality in Beijing, China: a time series study

BACKGROUND

Many studies have examined the association between ambient temperature and mortality. However, less evidence is available on the temperature effects on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, especially in China. In this study, we examined the relationship between ambient temperature and CHD mortality in Beijing, China during 2000 to 2011. In addition, we compared time series and time-stratified case-crossover models for the non-linear effects of temperature.

METHODS

We examined the effects of temperature on CHD mortality using both time series and time-stratified case-crossover models. We also assessed the effects of temperature on CHD mortality by subgroups: gender (female and male) and age (age > =65 and age < 65). We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the non-linear effects of temperature on CHD mortality up to 15 lag days. We used Akaike information criterion to assess the model fit for the two designs.

RESULTS

The time series models had a better model fit than time-stratified case-crossover models. Both designs showed that the relationships between temperature and group-specific CHD mortality were non-linear. Extreme cold and hot temperatures significantly increased the risk of CHD mortality. Hot effects were acute and short-term, while cold effects were delayed by two days and lasted for five days. The old people and women were more sensitive to extreme cold and hot temperatures than young and men.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that time series models performed better than time-stratified case-crossover models according to the model fit, even though they produced similar non-linear effects of temperature on CHD mortality. In addition, our findings indicate that extreme cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of CHD mortality in Beijing, China, particularly for women and old people.

Seasonal modification of the association between temperature and adult emergency department visits for asthma: a case-crossover study

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on emergency department visits for asthma and modification of this association by season. This association is of interest in its own right, and also important to understand because temperature may be an important confounder in analyses of associations between other environmental exposures and asthma. For example, the case-crossover study design is commonly used to investigate associations between air pollution and respiratory outcomes, such as asthma. This approach controls for confounding by month and season by design, and permits adjustment for potential confounding by temperature through regression modeling. However, such models may fail to adequately control for confounding if temperature effects are seasonal, since case-crossover analyses rarely account for interactions between matching factors (such as calendar month) and temperature.

METHODS

We conducted a case-crossover study to determine whether the association between temperature and emergency department visits for asthma varies by season or month. Asthma emergency department visits among North Carolina adults during 2007-2008 were identified using a statewide surveillance system. Marginal as well as season- and month-specific associations between asthma visits and temperature were estimated with conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

The association between temperature and adult emergency department visits for asthma is near null when the overall association is examined [odds ratio (OR) per 5 degrees Celsius = 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.02]. However, significant variation in temperature-asthma associations was observed by season (chi-square = 18.94, 3 degrees of freedom, p <0.001) and by month of the year (chi-square = 45.46, 11 degrees of freedom, p <0.001). ORs per 5 degrees Celsius were increased in February (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.10), July (OR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.29), and December (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.07) and decreased in September (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.87, 0.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Our empirical example suggests that there is significant seasonal variation in temperature-asthma associations. Epidemiological studies rarely account for interactions between ambient temperature and temporal matching factors (such as month of year) in the case-crossover design. These findings suggest that greater attention should be given to seasonal modification of associations between temperature and respiratory outcomes in case-crossover analyses of other environmental asthma triggers.

Recent peritonitis associates with mortality among patients treated with peritoneal dialysis

Peritonitis is a major complication of peritoneal dialysis, but the relationship between peritonitis and mortality among these patients is not well understood. In this case-crossover study, we included the 1316 patients who received peritoneal dialysis in Australia and New Zealand from May 2004 through December 2009 and either died on peritoneal dialysis or within 30 days of transfer to hemodialysis. Each patient served as his or her own control. The mean age was 70 years, and the mean time receiving peritoneal dialysis was 3 years. In total, there were 1446 reported episodes of peritonitis with 27% of patients having ≥ 2 episodes. Compared with the rest of the year, there were significantly increased odds of peritonitis during the 120 days before death, although the magnitude of this association was much greater during the 30 days before death. Compared with a 30-day window 6 months before death, the odds for peritonitis was six-fold higher during the 30 days immediately before death (odds ratio, 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 4.4-8.7). In conclusion, peritonitis significantly associates with mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients. The increased odds extend up to 120 days after an episode of peritonitis but the magnitude is greater during the initial 30 days.

Saharan dust and association between particulate matter and case-specific mortality: a case-crossover analysis in Madrid (Spain)

BACKGROUND

Saharan dust intrusions are a common phenomenon in the Madrid atmosphere, leading induce exceedances of the 50 μg/m(3)--EU 24 h standard for PM10.

METHODS

We investigated the effects of exposure to PM(10) between January 2003 and December 2005 in Madrid (Spain) on daily case-specific mortality; changes of effects between Saharan and non-Saharan dust days were assessed using a time-stratified case-crossover design.

RESULTS

Saharan dust affected 20% of days in the city of Madrid. Mean concentration of PM(10) was higher during dust days (47.7 μg/m(3)) than non-dust days (31.4 μg/m(3)). The rise of mortality per 10 μg/m(3) PM(10) concentration were always largely for Saharan dust-days. When stratifying by season risks of PM(10), at lag 1, during Saharan dust days were stronger for respiratory causes during cold season (IR% = 3.34% (95% CI: 0.36, 6.41) versus 2.87% (95% CI: 1.30, 4.47)) while for circulatory causes effects were stronger during warm season (IR% = 4.19% (95% CI: 1.34, 7.13) versus 2.65% (95% CI: 0.12, 5.23)). No effects were found for cerebrovascular causes.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence of strongest effects of particulate matter during Saharan dust days, providing a suggestion of effect modification, even though interaction terms were not statistically significant. Further investigation is needed to understand the mechanism by which Saharan dust increases mortality.

The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China: a case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model

BACKGROUND

Although interest in assessing the impacts of temperature on mortality has increased, few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine nonlinear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality. Additionally, little evidence is available on the temperature-mortality relationship in China or on what temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality.

OBJECTIVES

Our objectives were to use a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) as a part of case-crossover design to examine the nonlinear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China and to explore which temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality.

METHODS

We applied the DLNM to a case-crossover design to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperatures (maximum, mean, and minimum) on deaths (nonaccidental, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory).

RESULTS

A U-shaped relationship was found consistently between temperature and mortality. Cold effects (i.e., significantly increased mortality associated with low temperatures) were delayed by 3 days and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects (i.e., significantly increased mortality associated with high temperatures) were acute and lasted for 3 days and were followed by mortality displacement for nonaccidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

In Tianjin, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. The effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. Combining the DLNM and the case-crossover design allows the case-crossover design to flexibly estimate the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature (or air pollution) while controlling for season.

Association of daily asthma emergency department visits and hospital admissions with ambient air pollutants among the pediatric Medicaid population in Detroit: time-series and time-stratified case-crossover analyses with threshold effects

BACKGROUND

Asthma morbidity has been associated with ambient air pollutants in time-series and case-crossover studies. In such study designs, threshold effects of air pollutants on asthma outcomes have been relatively unexplored, which are of potential interest for exploring concentration-response relationships.

METHODS

This study analyzes daily data on the asthma morbidity experienced by the pediatric Medicaid population (ages 2-18 years) of Detroit, Michigan and concentrations of pollutants fine particles (PM2.5), CO, NO2 and SO2 for the 2004-2006 period, using both time-series and case-crossover designs. We use a simple, testable and readily implementable profile likelihood-based approach to estimate threshold parameters in both designs.

RESULTS

Evidence of significant increases in daily acute asthma events was found for SO2 and PM2.5, and a significant threshold effect was estimated for PM2.5 at 13 and 11 μg m(-3) using generalized additive models and conditional logistic regression models, respectively. Stronger effect sizes above the threshold were typically noted compared to standard linear relationship, e.g., in the time series analysis, an interquartile range increase (9.2 μg m(-3)) in PM2.5 (5-day-moving average) had a risk ratio of 1.030 (95% CI: 1.001, 1.061) in the generalized additive models, and 1.066 (95% CI: 1.031, 1.102) in the threshold generalized additive models. The corresponding estimates for the case-crossover design were 1.039 (95% CI: 1.013, 1.066) in the conditional logistic regression, and 1.054 (95% CI: 1.023, 1.086) in the threshold conditional logistic regression.

CONCLUSION

This study indicates that the associations of SO2 and PM2.5 concentrations with asthma emergency department visits and hospitalizations, as well as the estimated PM2.5 threshold were fairly consistent across time-series and case-crossover analyses, and suggests that effect estimates based on linear models (without thresholds) may underestimate the true risk.

Case-crossover analysis of air pollution health effects: a systematic review of methodology and application

BACKGROUND

Case-crossover is one of the most used designs for analyzing the health-related effects of air pollution. Nevertheless, no one has reviewed its application and methodology in this context.

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a systematic review of case-crossover (CCO) designs used to study the relationship between air pollution and morbidity and mortality, from the standpoint of methodology and application.

DATA SOURCES AND EXTRACTION

A search was made of the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases.Reports were classified as methodologic or applied. From the latter, the following information was extracted: author, study location, year, type of population (general or patients), dependent variable(s), independent variable(s), type of CCO design, and whether effect modification was analyzed for variables at the individual level.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The review covered 105 reports that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Of these, 24 addressed methodological aspects, and the remainder involved the design's application. In the methodological reports, the designs that yielded the best results in simulation were symmetric bidirectional CCO and time-stratified CCO. Furthermore, we observed an increase across time in the use of certain CCO designs, mainly symmetric bidirectional and time-stratified CCO. The dependent variables most frequently analyzed were those relating to hospital morbidity; the pollutants most often studied were those linked to particulate matter. Among the CCO-application reports, 13.6% studied effect modification for variables at the individual level.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of CCO designs has undergone considerable growth; the most widely used designs were those that yielded better results in simulation studies: symmetric bidirectional and time-stratified CCO. However, the advantages of CCO as a method of analysis of variables at the individual level are put to little use.

Short-term associations between ambient air pollutants and pediatric asthma emergency department visits

RATIONALE

Certain outdoor air pollutants cause asthma exacerbations in children. To advance understanding of these relationships, further characterization of the dose-response and pollutant lag effects are needed, as are investigations of pollutant species beyond the commonly measured criteria pollutants.

OBJECTIVES

Investigate short-term associations between ambient air pollutant concentrations and emergency department visits for pediatric asthma.

METHODS

Daily counts of emergency department visits for asthma or wheeze among children aged 5 to 17 years were collected from 41 Metropolitan Atlanta hospitals during 1993-2004 (n = 91,386 visits). Ambient concentrations of gaseous pollutants and speciated particulate matter were available from stationary monitors during this time period. Rate ratios for the warm season (May to October) and cold season (November to April) were estimated using Poisson generalized linear models in the framework of a case-crossover analysis.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Both ozone and primary pollutants from traffic sources were associated with emergency department visits for asthma or wheeze; evidence for independent effects of ozone and primary pollutants from traffic sources were observed in multipollutant models. These associations tended to be of the highest magnitude for concentrations on the day of the emergency department visit and were present at relatively low ambient concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

Even at relatively low ambient concentrations, ozone and primary pollutants from traffic sources independently contributed to the burden of emergency department visits for pediatric asthma.

Surveillance of the short-term impact of fine particle air pollution on cardiovascular disease hospitalizations in New York State

BACKGROUND

Studies have shown that the effects of particulate matter on health vary based on factors including the vulnerability of the population, health care practices, exposure factors, and the pollutant mix.

METHODS

We used time-stratified case-crossover to estimate differences in the short-term impacts of PM2.5 on cardiovascular disease hospital admissions in New York State by geographic area, year, age, gender, co-morbid conditions, and area poverty rates.

RESULTS

PM2.5 had a stronger impact on heart failure than other cardiovascular diagnoses, with 3.1% of heart failure admissions attributable to short-term PM2.5 exposure over background levels of 5 ug/m3. Older adults were significantly more susceptible to heart failure after short-term ambient PM2.5 exposure than younger adults.

CONCLUSION

The short-term impact of PM2.5 on cardiovascular disease admissions, and modifications of that impact, are small and difficult to measure with precision. Multi-state collaborations will be necessary to attain more precision to describe spatiotemporal differences in health impacts.