Long-term clinical course of decompensated alcoholic cirrhosis: a prospective study of 165 patients

A Comparison of the Effects of Alcohol Abstinence and Drinking Habit on the Survival of Patients with Alcohol-related Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Observational Study

Objective Abstaining from alcohol improves the outcome of alcohol-related cirrhosis. This study evaluated the effect of alcohol abstinence on the outcomes of patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis recruited from a core hospital in Boso Peninsula, Japan. Methods This single-center retrospective study recruited 116 patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis who were admitted to our department between April 2014 and October 2022. Taking the day of discharge as day 0, the patients were divided into two groups based on their subsequent behavior (abstinence/non-abstinence from alcohol). The study analysis included 98 patients after excluding 13 who died during hospitalization and 5 for whom follow-up at our hospital ended after discharge. We evaluated differences in the patient survival between the abstaining and drinking groups. Results The abstaining and drinking groups comprised 57 and 41 patients, respectively. We excluded from the analysis 10 and 6 patients with viable hepatocellular carcinoma in the abstaining and drinking groups, respectively. The findings revealed that the survival rate plateaued in the abstaining group from the third year onward, whereas the survival rate in the drinking group gradually decreased with time. Conclusion Our findings suggest that at least two years of alcohol abstinence is required to sustain the survival of patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis. The data collected by our hospital retrospectively demonstrated the importance of abstinence on a timescale of years of sustained abstinence.

Cost-effectiveness of an outreach program for HCC screening in patients with cirrhosis: a microsimulation modeling study

Background

Patients with cirrhosis are at high risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but few undergo guideline-recommended semi-annual screening. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) demonstrate that mailed outreach can increase screening versus visit-based screening. We estimated the costs and cost-effectiveness of an outreach strategy versus usual care.

Methods

We built a 10-year Markov chain Monte Carlo microsimulation model to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing a mailed outreach program versus usual care for HCC screening in a cohort of 10,000 patients with cirrhosis. Model inputs were based on literature review (2005-current), and costs were based on inflation-adjusted estimates from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare claims data. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses for HCC incidence, outreach costs, efficacy of the outreach strategy to increase screening, and efficacy of curative (versus palliative) HCC treatments.

Findings

Mailed outreach was estimated to cost $32.45 per patient in the first year and $21.90 per patient in subsequent years. The outreach program increased the number of HCC patients detected at an early stage by 48.4% and increased quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 300. Cost savings from these increases offset the costs of mailed outreach. Mailed outreach remained cost-effective across a wide range of HCC incidence rates, outreach costs, efficacy of the outreach strategy to increase screening, and the efficacy of curative HCC treatments. Annual out-of-pocket patient costs in the outreach arm were low at $13 per year.

Interpretation

Mailed outreach to encourage HCC screening in patients with cirrhosis dominates usual care and should be considered for implementation in routine practice.

Funding

National Cancer Institute and Cancer Prevention Research Institute of Texas.

Evaluating Performance of the Surprise Question to Predict 12-Month Mortality in Patients With End-Stage Liver Disease

INTRODUCTION

Patients diagnosed with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) often struggle with a heavy symptom burden that compromises their quality of life. Introduction of specialty palliative care (PC) may help address these issues but is underutilized in ESLD. This study aimed to assess the performance of the surprise question (SQ) in this population as a potential screen to identify patients with a life expectancy of less than 12 months.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort analysis was performed. In a previous study (COMPASS Trial, NCT03022630), attending hepatologists were asked the SQ: "Would you be surprised if this patient were to die in the next 12 months?" as a prompt to consider consultation to specialty PC. Here, we consider the full collection of SQ answers and reconcile against record of death to examine the accuracy of the SQ as a predictor in this patient population.

RESULTS

The SQ had high sensitivity (93%) but low specificity (38%) for predicting 12-month mortality in ESLD patients. The SQ also had a positive predictive value of 42% and a negative predictive value of 92%. Patients who were SQ+ (physician responded: No, I would not be surprised) were more likely to die within the year than those who were SQ-.

CONCLUSION

In ESLD, the SQ may serve as a useful screening test to identify patients at higher risk of mortality which may prompt PC engagement.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Biomarker-Based Screening Strategy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Cirrhosis

Introduction

Given suboptimal performance of ultrasound-based surveillance for early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) detection in patients with cirrhosis, there is interest in alternative surveillance strategies, including blood-based biomarkers. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of biomarker-based surveillance in patients with cirrhosis.

Methods

We constructed a decision-analytic model to compare ultrasound/alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and biomarker-based surveillance strategies in 1,000,000 simulated patients with compensated cirrhosis. Model inputs for adherence, benefits, and harms of each strategy were based on literature review, and costs were derived from the Medicare fee schedule. Primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the surveillance strategies, with cost-effectiveness assessed at a threshold of USD 150,000 per QALY. We performed sensitivity analyses for HCC incidence, test performance characteristics, surveillance adherence, and biomarker costs.

Results

In the base case, both ultrasound/AFP and biomarker-based surveillance were cost-effective versus no surveillance, with ICERs of USD 105,620, and USD 101,295, per QALY, respectively. Biomarker-based surveillance was also cost-effective versus ultrasound/AFP, with an ICER of USD 14,800 per QALY. Biomarker sensitivity exceeding 80%, cost below USD 210, or adherence exceeding 58% were necessary for biomarker-based screening to be cost-effective versus ultrasound/AFP. In two-way sensitivity analyses, biomarker costs were directly related with test sensitivity and adherence, whereas sensitivity and adherence were inversely related. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, biomarker-based screening was the most cost-effective strategy in most (65%) simulations.

Conclusion

Biomarker-based screening appears cost-effective for HCC screening, but results are sensitive to test sensitivity, adherence, and costs.

Recompensation of cirrhosis in candidates of transplant: Tips and tricks for delisting

Liver transplantation (LT) is the most successful treatment for patients with decompensated cirrhosis. The availability of effective and safe etiological treatments has altered the natural history of decompensated cirrhosis. Recently, the concept of recompensation has been defined. Patients who achieve recompensation may be removed from the waiting list for LT. Therefore, achieving an etiological cure is the cornerstone in the treatment of patients with decompensated cirrhosis. However, most patients improve their liver function after an etiologic cure, and only a proportion of patients achieve true recompensation after an etiological cure. Some patients maintain a condition of "MELD purgatory," that is, an improvement in the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score without relevant clinical improvement that prevents delisting and may be even detrimental because lower Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score delays LT. Herein, we review the available evidence regarding recompensation and the management of recompensated patients on the waiting list for LT.

Treatment of alcohol use disorder in patients with alcohol-associated liver disease: Innovative approaches and a call to action

Alcohol-associated liver disease is currently the leading cause of liver transplantation and liver deaths both in Europe and the United States. Efficacious treatments exist for alcohol use disorder, but they are seldomly prescribed for patients who need them. Besides, the presence of liver cirrhosis can complicate pharmacological treatment choices. In this review, we discuss established and innovative treatment strategies to treat unhealthy alcohol use in patients with alcohol-associated liver disease. We also describe the experience of our own institutions, Hospital Universitari Germans Trias i Pujol in Badalona (Spain) and Yale-New Haven Health and Yale Medicine (Connecticut. United States of America).

Meta-analysis: Prevalence and impact of alcohol abstinence in alcohol-associated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Although alcohol abstinence may be an effective intervention for alcohol-associated cirrhosis, its association with prognosis has not been systematically assessed or quantified.

AIMS

To determine the prevalence of alcohol abstinence, factors associated with alcohol abstinence and the impact of abstinence on morbidity and overall survival in people with alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

METHODS

We searched Medline and Embase from inception to 15 April 2023 for prospective and retrospective cohort studies describing alcohol abstinence in people with known alcohol-associated cirrhosis. Meta-analysis of proportions for pooled estimates was performed. The method of inverse variance, employing a random-effects model, was used to pool the hazard ratio (HR) comparing outcomes of abstinent against non-abstinent individuals with alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

RESULTS

We included 19 studies involving 18,833 people with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. The prevalence of alcohol abstinence was 53.8% (CI: 44.6%-62.7%). Over a mean follow-up duration of 48.6 months, individuals who continued to consume alcohol had significantly lower overall survival compared to those who were abstinent (HR: 0.611, 95% CI: 0.506-0.738). These findings remained consistent in sensitivity/subgroup analysis for the presence of decompensation, study design and studies that assessed abstinence throughout follow-up. Alcohol abstinence was associated with a significantly lower risk of hepatic decompensation (HR: 0.612, 95% CI: 0.473-0.792).

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol abstinence is associated with substantial improvement in overall survival in alcohol-associated cirrhosis. However, only half of the individuals with known alcohol-associated cirrhosis are abstinent.

Impact of continued alcohol use on liver-related outcomes of alcohol-associated cirrhosis: a retrospective study of 440 patients

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The prevalence of alcohol-associated cirrhosis is increasing. In this respect, we investigated the long-term impact of non-abstinence on the clinical course of alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 440 patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis (compensated cirrhosis: n  = 190; decompensated cirrhosis: n  = 250) diagnosed between January 2000 and July 2017 who consumed alcohol until diagnosis of cirrhosis. We assessed liver-related outcomes including first and further decompensating events (ascites, variceal bleeding, and hepatic encephalopathy), and death in relation to continued alcohol use.

RESULTS

Overall, 53.6% of patients remained abstinent (compensated cirrhosis: 57.9%; decompensated cirrhosis: 50.4%). Non-abstinent versus abstinent patients with compensated cirrhosis and decompensated cirrhosis showed significantly higher 5-year probability of first decompensation (80.2% vs. 36.8%; P  < 0.001) and further decompensation (87.9% vs. 20.6%; P  < 0.001), respectively. Five-year survival was substantially lower among non-abstinent patients with compensated cirrhosis (45.9% vs. 90.7%; P  < 0.001) and decompensated cirrhosis (22.9% vs. 73.8%; P  < 0.001) compared to abstinent. Non-abstinent versus abstinent patients of the total cohort showed an exceedingly lower 5-year survival (32.2% vs. 82.4%; P  < 0.001). Prolonged abstinence (≥2 years) was required to influence outcomes. Non-abstinence independently predicted mortality in the total cohort (hazard ratio [HR] 3.371; confidence interval [CI]: 2.388-4.882; P  < 0.001) along with the Child-Pugh class (HR: 4.453; CI: 2.907-6.823; P  < 0.001) and higher age (HR: 1.023; CI: 1.007-1.039; P  = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

Liver-related outcomes are worse among non-abstinent patients with alcohol- associated cirrhosis prompting urgent interventions ensuring abstinence.

Abstinence is associated with better outcomes in patients with alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma: Results of an observational study

BACKGROUND

Patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may have reduced survival compared to those with HCC related to other causes. The impact of abstinence in alcohol-related HCC is unknown. We compared access to curative treatment and the prognosis of patients with HCC according to the cause of cirrhosis and evaluated the impact of abstinence on the prognosis of patients with alcohol-related HCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data for patients with cirrhosis and HCC were prospectively collected in a single center. A logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with access to curative treatment. Multivariate Fine and Gray proportional hazards models were used to identify factors associated with 5-year survival after adjustment for lead-time bias.

RESULTS

Two hundred patients were included, 114 (57 %) with non-alcohol-related HCC and 86 (43 %) with alcohol-related HCC (35 abstainers, 51 consumers). During follow-up, 21 patients were transplanted and 156 died. The proportion of patients who had access to curative treatment was 65 % in abstainers, 44 % in consumers, and 57 % in patients with non-alcohol-related cirrhosis (p = 0.06). In multivariate analyses, abstinence was not associated with better access to curative treatment. After adjustment for lead-time bias, the 5-year cumulative incidence of overall death was significantly lower in abstainers than in consumers and in patients with non-alcohol-related cirrhosis (52 % vs. 78 % vs. 81 %, respectively, p = 0.04). In multivariate analyses, abstainers had lower risk of death than consumers (SHR: 0.47, 95 % CI: 0.28-0.80, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

Abstinence improves the outcome of patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis once HCC has occurred.

Etiological cure prevents further decompensation and mortality in patients with cirrhosis with ascites as the single first decompensating event

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Removal/suppression of the primary etiological factor reduces the risk of decompensation and mortality in compensated cirrhosis. However, in decompensated cirrhosis, the impact of etiologic treatment is less predictable. We aimed to evaluate the impact of etiological treatment in patients with cirrhosis who developed ascites as single index decompensating event.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Patients with cirrhosis and ascites as single first decompensation event were included and followed until death, liver transplantation, or Q3/2021. The etiology was considered "cured" (alcohol abstinence, hepatitis C cure, and hepatitis B suppression) versus "controlled" (partial removal of etiologic factors) versus "uncontrolled." A total of 622 patients were included in the study. Etiology was "cured" in 146 patients (24%), "controlled" in 170 (27%), and "uncontrolled" in 306 (49%). During follow-up, 350 patients (56%) developed further decompensation. In multivariable analysis (adjusted for age, sex, varices, etiology, Child-Pugh class, creatinine, sodium, and era of decompensation), etiological cure was independently associated with a lower risk of further decompensation (HR: 0.46; p = 0.001). During follow-up, 250 patients (40.2%) died, while 104 (16.7%) underwent LT. In multivariable analysis, etiological cure was independently associated with a lower mortality risk (HR: 0.35, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with cirrhosis and ascites as single first decompensating event, the cure of liver disease etiology represents a main treatment goal since this translates into considerably lower risks of further decompensation and mortality.

Challenges and Solutions for Monitoring Alcohol Use in Patients With Alcohol-Related Liver Disease: Pilot Study of a Wearable Alcohol Biosensor

OBJECTIVES

Early alcohol use identification can prevent morbidity/mortality for alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). Innovative wearable alcohol biosensors (biosensors) that identify alcohol use through perspiration are an emerging technology with potential application for patients with ALD. Our primary aim was to determine biosensor acceptability and feasibility for patients with ALD. We describe participant acceptance and challenges using biosensor technology in a pilot study of biosensors with patients with ALD.

DESIGN

Participants had a recent diagnosis or hospitalization for decompensated ALD, had to be drinking within the past 3 months, and had to be followed at our center. Participants wore the biosensor daily for 3 months. Quantitative data using the Technology Acceptance Model 2 (TAM2) measure were collected at intake and study conclusion. The TAM2's 13 items cover four scales: perceived usefulness, ease of use, attitude toward technology, and intention to use on a 7-point Likert scale. Lower scores indicate higher acceptance. Participants were asked open-ended questions about issues wearing the biosensor.

RESULTS

Among 27 participants, 60% were women with an average age of 45 (10) years, and 89% were White. TAM2 subscales indicated initially high acceptance (mean scores = 1.2-2.2) and remained high (mean scores = 1.3-2.3) without a statistically significant decline at study conclusion. From open-ended questions, several themes regarding problems with device wear emerged a) uncomfortable or cumbersome to wear, b) problems with biosensor appearance, and c) issues with usability. Challenges to biosensor usage included data being lost when devices were damaged and devices being lost during the study.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol biosensors seem to be acceptable to ALD participants. However, improving the appearance, comfort, durability, and functionality of biosensor devices is critical to clinical deployment.Trial Registration:Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT03533660: Alcohol biosensor monitoring for alcohol liver disease.

A model for individualized prediction of liver-related death in outpatients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

In alcohol-associated cirrhosis, an accurate estimate of the risk of death is essential for patient care. We developed individualized prediction charts for 5-year liver-related mortality among outpatients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis that take into account the impact of abstinence.

METHODS

We collected data on outpatients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis in a prospective registry. The model was derived, internally and externally validated, and compared with the Child-Pugh and the Model For End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores.

RESULTS

A total of 527 and 127 patients were included in the derivation and validation data sets, respectively. A model was developed based on the 3 variables independently associated with liver-related mortality in multivariate analyses (age, Child-Pugh score, and abstinence). In the derivation data set, the model combining age, Child-Pugh score, and abstinence outperformed the Child-Pugh and the MELD scores. In the validation data set, the Brier score was lower for the model (0.166) compared with the Child-Pugh score (0.196, p = 0.008) and numerically lower compared with the MELD score (0.190) (p = 0.06). The model had the greatest AUC (0.77; 95% CI 0.68-0.85) compared with the Child-Pugh score (AUC = 0.66; 95% CI 0.56-0.76, p = 0.01) and was numerically higher than that of the MELD score (AUC = 0.66; 95% CI 0.56-0.78, p = 0.06). Also, the Akaike and Bayesian information criterion scores were lower for the model (2163; 2172) compared with the Child-Pugh (2213; 2216) or the MELD score (2205; 2208).

CONCLUSION

A model combining age, Child-Pugh score, and abstinence accurately predicts liver-related death at 5 years among outpatients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. In this study, the model outperformed the Child-Pugh and the MELD scores, although the AUC and the Brier score of the model were not statically different from the MELD score in the validation data set.

Alcohol Abstinence Improves Prognosis Across All Stages of Portal Hypertension in Alcohol-Related Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol-related liver disease is a leading cause of liver-related mortality. The effect of alcohol abstinence on the natural history of alcohol-related cirrhosis across distinct stages of portal hypertension has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we assessed the clinical implications of abstinence in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension.

METHODS

Alcohol abstinence, hepatic decompensation, and mortality were assessed in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis who underwent a baseline hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement and were diagnosed with clinically significant portal hypertension (HVPG ≥10 mm Hg).

RESULTS

A total of 320 patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis (median age: 57 [interquartile range (IQR), 49.7-63.1] years; 75.6% male; 87.5% decompensated) and a median HVPG of 20 (IQR, 17-23) mm Hg were followed up for a median of 36 (IQR, 14-80) months. Overall, 241 (75.3%) patients remained abstinent, while 79 (24.7%) patients had active alcohol consumption. Alcohol abstinence was linked to a significantly reduced risk of hepatic decompensation (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.391; P < .001), as well as liver-related (aHR, 0.428; P < .001) and all-cause (aHR, 0.453; P < .001) mortality, after adjusting for baseline HVPG, MELD, and previous decompensation. Importantly, alcohol abstinence significantly reduced the cumulative incidence of hepatic decompensation in both groups with HVPG 10-19 mm Hg (P < .001) and HVPG ≥20 mm Hg (P = .002). The 3-year decompensation probability was 32.4% vs 60.0% in HVPG 10-19 mm Hg and 57.5% vs 82.6% in HVPG ≥20 mm Hg for abstinent patients vs active drinkers, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol abstinence improves prognosis across all stages of portal hypertension in alcohol-related cirrhosis, including in patients who have already progressed to high-risk portal hypertension. (ClinicalTrials.gov, Number: NCT03267615).

Development of severe alcohol related liver disease over four decades in Iceland: impact of increased access and use of alcohol

OBJECTIVE

Limited data exist on the association between per capita alcohol consumption and incidence of alcohol related liver disease (ARLD). The aims were to analyse this relationship and assess prevalence of ARLD in Iceland and among patients treated for alcohol use disorder (AUD) and its impact on outcomes.

METHODS

A retrospective study on all patients diagnosed with severe ARLD: alcohol related cirrhosis (ARC) and alcohol related hepatitis (ARH) in Iceland 1984-2020. Medical records were scrutinized for clinical features, severity of ARLD, proportion undergoing treatment for AUD, data on abstinence and long-term outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 314 patients, males 76%, median age 56 years, fulfilled the predetermined criteria for ARLD. Median MELD was 17, 73% with Child-Pugh B/C and 70/314 (22%) who had ARH. Incidence of ARLD increased from 0.77 cases per 100 000 inhabitants annually 1984-2000 to 6.1 per 100 000 in 2016-2020. Per capita alcohol consumption increased from 4.3 Liters to 7.5 L in in the same time periods. Overall 220/314 (70%) with ARLD had undergone treatment for AUD. Of all individuals who had AUD treatment during the study period (n = 21.845), 1% were diagnosed with ARLD. Patients who underwent treatment for AUD after the ARLD diagnosis had better prognosis than those who had treatment prior to ARLD diagnosis (hazard ratio 2.5 [95% CI 1.3-5.0]).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of ARLD increased 8-fold during the study period coinciding with 74% increase in per capita alcohol consumption. Patients with prior diagnosis of AUD had worse prognosis that needs special attention.

Global prevalence, incidence, and outcomes of alcohol related liver diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Alcohol related liver disease (ARLD) is one of the major chronic liver diseases worldwide. This review aimed to describe the global prevalence, incidence, and outcomes of ARLD.

METHODS

Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were searched from inception to May 31, 2022. The language was restricted to English or Chinese. According to the criteria, articles describing the basic characteristics of the population were selected. Two reviewers extracted the data independently.

RESULTS

A total of 372 studies were identified: 353 were used for prevalence analysis, 7 were used for incidence analysis, and 114 were used to for outcome analysis. The prevalence of ARLD worldwide was 4.8%. The prevalence in males was 2.9%, which was higher than female (0.5%). Among the ethnic groups, the percentage was highest in Caucasians (68.9%). Alcoholic liver cirrhosis comprised the highest proportion in the disease spectrum of ARLD at 32.9%. The prevalence of ascites in ARLD population was highest (25.1%). The ARLD population who drinking for > 20 years accounted for 54.8%, and the average daily alcohol intake was 146.6 g/d. About 59.5% of ARLD patients were current or former smokers, and 18.7% were complicated with hepatitis virus infection. The incidence was 0.208/1000 person-years. The overall mortality was 23.9%, and the liver-related mortality was 21.6%.

CONCLUSION

The global prevalence of ARLD was 4.8% and was affected by sex, region, drinking years, and other factors. Therefore, removing the factors causing a high disease prevalence is an urgent requisite.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO Nr: CRD42021286192.

Extra-hepatic morbidity and mortality in alcohol-related liver disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use increases the risk of many conditions in addition to liver disease; patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are therefore at risk from both extra-hepatic and hepatic disease.

AIMS

This review synthesises information about non-liver-related mortality in persons with ALD.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed to identify studies describing non-liver outcomes in ALD. Information about overall non-liver mortality was extracted from included studies and sub-categorised into major causes: cardiovascular disease (CVD), non-liver cancer and infection. Single-proportion meta-analysis was done to calculate incidence rates (events/1000 patient-years) and relative risks (RR) compared with control populations.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven studies describing 50 302 individuals with 155 820 patient-years of follow-up were included. Diabetes, CVD and obesity were highly prevalent amongst included patients (5.4%, 10.4% and 20.8% respectively). Outcomes varied across the spectrum of ALD: in alcohol-related fatty liver the rate of non-liver mortality was 43.4/1000 patient-years, whereas in alcoholic hepatitis the rate of non-liver mortality was 22.5/1000 patient-years. The risk of all studied outcomes was higher in ALD compared with control populations: The RR of death from CVD was 2.4 (1.6-3.8), from non-hepatic cancer 2.2 (1.6-2.9) and from infection 8.2 (4.7-14.3).

CONCLUSION

Persons with ALD are at high risk of death from non-liver causes such as cardiovascular disease and non-hepatic cancer.

Differentiation between alcohol-associated cirrhosis and hepatitis B-associated cirrhosis based on hepatic complications and psychological symptoms

Background

The prognosis of and occurrence of complications in patients with different clinical features of cirrhosis differ, and cirrhosis with different etiologies has varying clinical characteristics. The aim of this study was to describe the liver function markers, hepatic complications, and psychological features differentiating patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection-related and alcohol-related cirrhosis.

Materials and Methods

This was a retrospective and observational study that analyzed the medical data of inpatients with alcohol-related or HBV infection-related cirrhosis from May 2014 to May 2020. Markers of liver function, portal hypertension, and psychological symptoms were compared between the two groups.

Results

Patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis showed higher Self-Rating Anxiety Scale scores and prevalence of hypoproteinemia, fatty liver, and depression than those with HBV infection-related cirrhosis (all P < 0.05). After adjustment for potential confounders, patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis also showed higher risks of increased total cholesterol (odds ratio [OR] =2.671, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.160-6.151, P = 0.021), increased high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (OR = 2.714, 95% CI: 1.009-7.299, P = 0.048), and fatty liver (OR = 2.713, 95% CI: 1.002-7.215, P = 0.048); however, splenomegaly and splenectomy were significantly associated with HBV infection-related cirrhosis (OR = 2.320, 95% CI: 1.066-5.050, P = 0.034).

Conclusion

Patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis were more likely to develop hyperlipidemia, fatty liver, and psychological symptoms, whereas those with HBV-related cirrhosis had a higher risk of splenomegaly.

Risk of further decompensation/mortality in patients with cirrhosis and ascites as the first single decompensation event

Background & Aims

Although ascites is the most frequent first decompensating event in cirrhosis, the clinical course after ascites as the single index decompensation is not well defined. The aim of this multicentre study was thus to systematically investigate the incidence and type of further decompensation after ascites as the first decompensating event and to assess risk factors for mortality.

Methods

A total of 622 patients with cirrhosis presenting with grade 2/3 ascites as the single index decompensating event at 2 university hospitals (Padova and Vienna) between 2003 and 2021 were included. Events of further decompensation, liver transplantation, and death were recorded.

Results

The mean age was 57 ± 11 years, and most patients were male (n = 423, 68%) with alcohol-related (n = 366, 59%) and viral (n = 200,32%) liver disease as the main aetiologies. In total, 323 (52%) patients presented with grade 2 and 299 (48%) with grade 3 ascites. The median Child-Pugh score at presentation was 8 (IQR 7-9), and the mean model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was 15 ± 6. During a median follow-up period of 49 months, 350 (56%) patients experienced further decompensation: refractory ascites (n = 130, 21%), hepatic encephalopathy (n = 112, 18%), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (n = 32, 5%), hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury (n = 29, 5%). Variceal bleeding as an isolated further decompensation event was rare (n = 18, 3%), whereas non-bleeding further decompensation (n = 161, 26%) and ≥2 concomitant further decompensation events (n = 171, 27%) were frequent. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt was used in only 81 (13%) patients. In patients presenting with grade 2 ascites, MELD ≥15 indicated a considerable risk for further decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 2.18; p <0.001; 1-year incidences: <10: 10% vs. 10-14: 13% vs. ≥15: 28%) and of mortality (SHR 1.89; p = 0.004; 1-year incidences: <10: 3% vs. 10-14: 6% vs. ≥15: 14%). Importantly, mortality was similarly high throughout MELD strata in grade 3 ascites (p = n.s. for different MELD strata; 1-year incidences: <10: 14% vs. 10-14: 15% vs. ≥15: 20%).

Conclusions

Further decompensation is frequent in patients with ascites as a single index decompensation event and only rarely owing to bleeding. Although patients with grade 2 ascites and MELD <15 seem to have a favourable prognosis, those with grade 3 ascites are at a high risk of mortality across all MELD strata.

Lay summary

Decompensation (the development of symptoms as a result of worsening liver function) marks a turning point in the disease course for patients with cirrhosis. Ascites (i.e. , the accumulation of fluid in the abdomen) is the most common first decompensating event, yet little is known about the clinical course of patients who develop ascites as a single first decompensating event. Herein, we show that the severity of ascites is associated with mortality and that in patients with moderate ascites, the widely used prognostic MELD score can predict patient outcomes.

Health and economic burden due to alcohol-associated liver diseases in the Union Territory of Delhi: A Markov probabilistic model approach

BACKGROUND

Nearly one-fifth of all deaths attributable to alcohol are due to liver diseases.

METHODS

The study employs a Markov Probabilistic Modeling approach considering various clinical spectrum of alcohol-associated liver diseases (ALD), to gauge the health and economic burden due to ALD for the national capital territory of Delhi, from March 2017 to February 2018. The health impact was estimated through Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLL), and total deaths due to ALD. The economic burden of ALD was assessed assuming the current health-seeking preferences and assuming that all the diseased individuals are cared for in the public health systems. Sensitivity analysis was done by Monte Carlo simulations.

RESULTS

Total number of estimated deaths due to ALD in the national capital territory of Delhi for one year period from March 2017 was 8367. The DALYs due to ALD were estimated to be 0.247 million life years; this includes 0.178 million YLL and 0.069 million life years lost due to disability. The total cost of treating ALD was estimated to be 92.94 billion Indian rupees, if patients sought care based on current preferences and 55.52 billion Indian rupees if all diseased individuals were cared for in public health systems. The total excise revenue due to alcohol to the Government is being Indian rupees 43.1 billion in the said year.

CONCLUSION

The high burden of ALD in terms of lives lost, DALYs lost, and more than two times higher estimated expense for care than the revenue generation due to alcohol clearly indicates that it would be prudent to initiate social engineering and preventive strategies to lessen the growing burden of ALD in India. The Delhi model for health and economic burden of ALD could help the country develop policies for better health outcomes of these patients.

New Australian guidelines for the treatment of alcohol problems: an overview of recommendations

OF RECOMMENDATIONS AND LEVELS OF EVIDENCE

Chapter 2: Screening and assessment for unhealthy alcohol use Screening Screening for unhealthy alcohol use and appropriate interventions should be implemented in general practice (Level A), hospitals (Level B), emergency departments and community health and welfare settings (Level C). Quantity-frequency measures can detect consumption that exceeds levels in the current Australian guidelines (Level B). The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is the most effective screening tool and is recommended for use in primary care and hospital settings. For screening in the general community, the AUDIT-C is a suitable alternative (Level A). Indirect biological markers should be used as an adjunct to screening (Level A), and direct measures of alcohol in breath and/or blood can be useful markers of recent use (Level B). Assessment Assessment should include evaluation of alcohol use and its effects, physical examination, clinical investigations and collateral history taking (Level C). Assessment for alcohol-related physical problems, mental health problems and social support should be undertaken routinely (GPP). Where there are concerns regarding the safety of the patient or others, specialist consultation is recommended (Level C). Assessment should lead to a clear, mutually acceptable treatment plan which specifies interventions to meet the patient's needs (Level D). Sustained abstinence is the optimal outcome for most patients with alcohol dependence (Level C). Chapter 3: Caring for and managing patients with alcohol problems: interventions, treatments, relapse prevention, aftercare, and long term follow-up Brief interventions Brief motivational interviewing interventions are more effective than no treatment for people who consume alcohol at risky levels (Level A). Their effectiveness compared with standard care or alternative psychosocial interventions varies by treatment setting. They are most effective in primary care settings (Level A). Psychosocial interventions Cognitive behaviour therapy should be a first-line psychosocial intervention for alcohol dependence. Its clinical benefit is enhanced when it is combined with pharmacotherapy for alcohol dependence or an additional psychosocial intervention (eg, motivational interviewing) (Level A). Motivational interviewing is effective in the short term and in patients with less severe alcohol dependence (Level A). Residential rehabilitation may be of benefit to patients who have moderate-to-severe alcohol dependence and require a structured residential treatment setting (Level D). Alcohol withdrawal management Most cases of withdrawal can be managed in an ambulatory setting with appropriate support (Level B). Tapering diazepam regimens (Level A) with daily staged supply from a pharmacy or clinic are recommended (GPP). Pharmacotherapies for alcohol dependence Acamprosate is recommended to help maintain abstinence from alcohol (Level A). Naltrexone is recommended for prevention of relapse to heavy drinking (Level A). Disulfiram is only recommended in close supervision settings where patients are motivated for abstinence (Level A). Some evidence for off-label therapies baclofen and topiramate exists, but their side effect profiles are complex and neither should be a first-line medication (Level B). Peer support programs Peer-led support programs such as Alcoholics Anonymous and SMART Recovery are effective at maintaining abstinence or reductions in drinking (Level A). Relapse prevention, aftercare and long-term follow-up Return to problematic drinking is common and aftercare should focus on addressing factors that contribute to relapse (GPP). A harm-minimisation approach should be considered for patients who are unable to reduce their drinking (GPP). Chapter 4: Providing appropriate treatment and care to people with alcohol problems: a summary for key specific populations Gender-specific issues Screen women and men for domestic abuse (Level C). Consider child protection assessments for caregivers with alcohol use disorder (GPP). Explore contraceptive options with women of reproductive age who regularly consume alcohol (Level B). Pregnant and breastfeeding women Advise pregnant and breastfeeding women that there is no safe level of alcohol consumption (Level B). Pregnant women who are alcohol dependent should be admitted to hospital for treatment in an appropriate maternity unit that has an addiction specialist (GPP). Young people Perform a comprehensive HEEADSSS assessment for young people with alcohol problems (Level B). Treatment should focus on tangible benefits of reducing drinking through psychotherapy and engagement of family and peer networks (Level B). Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples Collaborate with Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander health workers, organisations and communities, and seek guidance on patient engagement approaches (GPP). Use validated screening tools and consider integrated mainstream and Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander-specific approaches to care (Level B). Culturally and linguistically diverse groups Use an appropriate method, such as the "teach-back" technique, to assess the need for language and health literacy support (Level C). Engage with culture-specific agencies as this can improve treatment access and success (Level C). Sexually diverse and gender diverse populations Be mindful that sexually diverse and gender diverse populations experience lower levels of satisfaction, connection and treatment completion (Level C). Seek to incorporate LGBTQ-specific treatment and agencies (Level C). Older people All new patients aged over 50 years should be screened for harmful alcohol use (Level D). Consider alcohol as a possible cause for older patients presenting with unexplained physical or psychological symptoms (Level D). Consider shorter acting benzodiazepines for withdrawal management (Level D). Cognitive impairment Cognitive impairment may impair engagement with treatment (Level A). Perform cognitive screening for patients who have alcohol problems and refer them for neuropsychological assessment if significant impairment is suspected (Level A).

SUMMARY OF KEY RECOMMENDATIONS AND LEVELS OF EVIDENCE

Chapter 5: Understanding and managing comorbidities for people with alcohol problems: polydrug use and dependence, co-occurring mental disorders, and physical comorbidities Polydrug use and dependence Active alcohol use disorder, including dependence, significantly increases the risk of overdose associated with the administration of opioid drugs. Specialist advice is recommended before treatment of people dependent on both alcohol and opioid drugs (GPP). Older patients requiring management of alcohol withdrawal should have their use of pharmaceutical medications reviewed, given the prevalence of polypharmacy in this age group (GPP). Smoking cessation can be undertaken in patients with alcohol dependence and/or polydrug use problems; some evidence suggests varenicline may help support reduction of both tobacco and alcohol consumption (Level C). Co-occurring mental disorders More intensive interventions are needed for people with comorbid conditions, as this population tends to have more severe problems and carries a worse prognosis than those with single pathology (GPP). The Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10 or K6) is recommended for screening for comorbid mental disorders in people presenting for alcohol use disorders (Level A). People with alcohol use disorder and comorbid mental disorders should be offered treatment for both disorders; care should be taken to coordinate intervention (Level C). Physical comorbidities Patients should be advised that alcohol use has no beneficial health effects. There is no clear risk-free threshold for alcohol intake. The safe dose for alcohol intake is dependent on many factors such as underlying liver disease, comorbidities, age and sex (Level A). In patients with alcohol use disorder, early recognition of the risk for liver cirrhosis is critical. Patients with cirrhosis should abstain from alcohol and should be offered referral to a hepatologist for liver disease management and to an addiction physician for management of alcohol use disorder (Level A). Alcohol abstinence reduces the risk of cancer and improves outcomes after a diagnosis of cancer (Level A).

Outcomes of Young Patients With Alcoholic Cirrhosis After First Hospitalization for Cirrhosis: A Carilion Clinic Experience

Background 

Alcoholic cirrhosis though uncommon in young patients is being reported more frequently and related mortality is also increasing. 

Study aim 

To evaluate risk factors associated with mortality among young patients (<40 years) with alcoholic cirrhosis and older patients (> 40 years old) after their first hospitalization in a tertiary referral academic center. 

Methods

Carilion clinic’s electronic medical record (EPIC) was queried to identify all alcoholic patients hospitalized for the first time with either a new diagnosis of alcoholic cirrhosis or a prior diagnosis of this from 2008 to 2016 with follow-up through June 2018. Information on demographics, comorbidities, lab values, procedures, and mortality was extracted. The cumulative risks of long-term mortality after the first hospitalization were estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves and compared between the two groups; those < 40 years of age and those > 40 years of age. Demographic data, lab values, and comorbidities associated with cirrhosis were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis to determine risk factors associated with long-term mortality. 

Results

We identified 65 young patients out of a total of 325 patients admitted for the first time for alcoholic cirrhosis (mean age: 34.6 ± 4.7 yrs, 72.3% males, 74.4% current alcohol users, 52.3% current smokers, 12.6% current illicit drugs users). The one, three, and five-year cumulative mortality after the first hospitalization was 21.1 %, 31.1%, and 49.7% respectively. The median survival for young patients was longer as compared to the older patients (p<0.001); likely related to high early mortality in older patients who had many other comorbidities. On multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis, increased age [hazard ratio (HR) 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01-1.05], neutrophils-to-lymphocytes ratio (NLR) at first hospital discharge (HR 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04), the presence of encephalopathy (HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.06-3.55), and initial MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) score (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.08-1.19) were associated with increased risk of mortality. Though the majority of patients endorsed current alcohol and tobacco use before the admission, it was not significantly associated with mortality. 

Conclusions 

Five-year cumulative mortality for patients < 40 years of age with alcoholic cirrhosis after their first hospitalization is 49.7%. Old age, most recent NLR, hepatic encephalopathy, and MELD score on admission were associated with increased late mortality. 

Alcohol use disorder and the liver

Alcohol use disorders (AUD) cause a range of physical harms, but the major cause of alcohol-related mortality is alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), in some countries accounting for almost 90% of alcohol-related deaths. The risk of ALD has an exponential relationship with increasing alcohol consumption, but is also associated with genetic factors, other life-style factors and social deprivation. ALD includes a spectrum of progressive pathology, from liver steatosis to fibrosis and liver cirrhosis. There are no specific treatments for liver cirrhosis, but abstinence from alcohol is key to limit progression of the disease. Over time, cirrhosis can progress (often silently) to decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Liver transplantation may be suitable for patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis and may also be used as a curative intervention for HCC, but only for a few selected patients, and complete abstinence is a prerequisite. Patients with AUD are also at risk of developing alcoholic hepatitis, which has a high mortality and limited evidence for effective therapies. There is a strong evidence base for the effectiveness of psychosocial and pharmacological interventions for AUD, but very few of these have been trialled in patients with comorbid ALD. Integrated specialist alcohol and hepatology collaborations are required to develop interventions and pathways for patients with ALD and ongoing AUD.

Emerging synthetic drugs for the treatment of liver cirrhosis

Introduction: The number of deaths and prevalent cases of cirrhosis are increasing worldwide, but there are no licensed antifibrotic or pro-regenerative medicines and liver transplantation is a limited resource. Cirrhosis is characterized by extreme liver fibrosis, organ dysfunction, and complications related to portal hypertension. Advances in our understanding of liver fibrosis progression and regression following successful etiological therapy betray vulnerabilities in common and disease-specific mechanisms that could be targeted pharmacologically.Area covered: This review summarizes the cellular and molecular pathogenesis of cirrhosis as a preface to discussion of the current drug development landscape. The dominant indication for global pharma R&D pipelines is cirrhosis related to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). We searched Clinicaltrials.gov, GlobalData, Pharmaprojects and PubMed for pertinent information on emerging synthetic drugs for cirrhosis, with a focus on compounds listed in phase 2 and phase 3 trials.Expert opinion: Although cirrhosis can regress following successful etiological treatment, there are no specific antifibrotic or pro-regenerative drugs approved for this condition. Obstacles to drug development in cirrhosis include intrinsic biological factors, a heterogeneous patient population, and lack of acceptable surrogate endpoints. Nevertheless, several synthetic drugs are being evaluated in clinical trials and the NASH field is rapidly embracing a drug combination approach.

A nationwide population-based prospective study of cirrhosis in Iceland

Background & Aims

The incidence of cirrhosis in Iceland has been the lowest in the world with only 3 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Alcohol consumption has almost doubled in Iceland from 1980 to 2016. Obesity has also risen and hepatitis C virus has spread among people who inject drugs in Iceland. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of these risk factors on the incidence and aetiology of cirrhosis in Iceland.

Methods

The study included all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis for the first time during 2010–2015. Diagnosis was based on liver histology or 2 of 4 criteria: cirrhosis on imaging, ascites, varices, and/or elevated INR.

Results

Overall, 157 patients were diagnosed, 105 (67%) males, mean age 61 years. The overall incidence was 9.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants annually. Alcohol was the only underlying cause in 48/157 (31%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in 34/157(22%), and alcohol and hepatitis C together in 23/157(15%) were the most common causes. Only 6% of patients had an unknown cause of cirrhosis. Upon diagnosis, the median model for end-stage liver disease score was 11 (IQR 8–15), 53% were of Child-Pugh class A whereas 61 (39%) had ascites, 11% encephalopathy, and 8% variceal bleeding. In all, 25% of deaths were from HCC and 25% from liver failure.

Conclusion

A major increase in incidence of cirrhosis has occurred in Iceland associated with increases in alcohol consumption, obesity, and hepatitis C. In a high proportion NAFLD was the aetiology and very few had unknown cause of cirrhosis. The highest death rate was from HCC.

Lay summary

In a nationwide population-based study from Iceland, including all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis of the liver over a period of 5 years, we found the incidence of new cases had increased 3-fold compared with a previous study 20 years ago. The increase is attributable to increased alcohol consumption, an epidemic of diabetes and obesity, and infection with the hepatitis C virus. Furthermore, we found that with thorough investigations, a specific cause for cirrhosis could be found in 94% of patients. Patients with cirrhosis frequently die of liver cancer and other complications related to their liver disease.

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The incidence of cirrhosis in Iceland has been the lowest among western countries.

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In this nationwide prospective study, all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis of the liver in Iceland over a period of 5 years were included.

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The incidence of cirrhosis had increased 3-fold compared with a study 10 years earlier owing to increased alcohol consumption, obesity, and hepatitis C.

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With thorough investigations a specific cause for cirrhosis could be found in 94% of patients.

The incidence trends of liver cirrhosis caused by nonalcoholic steatohepatitis via the GBD study 2017

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) has rapidly become the most common cause of chronic liver diseases. We aimed to explore the incidence and distribution characteristics of NASH by sex, region and sociodemographic index (SDI). We collected data, including sex and region, on NASH-related liver cirrhosis from the 2017 GBD study. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to estimate the incidence trend and distribution characteristics. Globally, the incidence of liver cirrhosis caused by NASH increased from 178,430 cases in 1990 to 367,780 cases in 2017, an increase of approximately 105.56%. The ASR of NASH increased by an average of 1.35% per year (95% CI 1.28–1.42). Meanwhile, large differences in the ASR and the EAPC were observed across regions. The middle-high SDI region had the highest increase among all five SDI regions, followed by middle SDI region. In addition, Eastern Europe, Andean Latin America and Central Asia showed a more significant growth trend of ASR. In contrast, the high SDI region demonstrated the slowest increasing trend of ASR, and the high-income Asia Pacific demonstrated a decreasing trend among the 21 regions. Liver cirrhosis has caused a huge and rising health burden in many countries and regions. In addition, with the growth of obesity, population and aging, NASH might replace viral hepatitis as the most important cause of liver cirrhosis in the near future. Therefore, appropriate interventions are needed in coming decades to realize early diagnosis and prevention of NASH-related liver cirrhosis.

Coexistence of alcohol-related pancreatitis and alcohol-related liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Available estimates of coexistent alcohol-related pancreatitis (ALP) and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) vary widely, and factors that determine coexistent disease are largely unknown. We performed a systematic review of published literature with the primary aim to generate robust estimates for coexistent alcohol-related chronic pancreatitis (ACP) and alcohol-related cirrhosis (ALC).

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases from inception until February 2018. Studies included were those in English-language, sample size ≥25 and allowed calculation of the coexistent disease. Pooled estimates were calculated using a random-effects model approach.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine (including 5 autopsy studies) of 2000 eligible studies met inclusion criteria. Only 6.9% included patients were female. Fifteen studies enabled calculation of ACP in ALC, and 11 for ALC in ACP. Pooled prevalence of ACP in ALC was 16.2% (95% CI 10.4-24.5) overall, and 15.5% (95% CI 8.0-27.7) when data were limited to clinical studies. Corresponding prevalence for ALC in ACP was 21.5% (95% CI 12.0-35.6) and 16.9% (95% CI 11.5-24.3), respectively. There was significant heterogeneity among studies (I2 - 65-92%). Pooled prevalence for ALP in ALD or ALD in ALP in clinical studies were 15.2% and 39%, respectively. None of the studies reported outcomes in patients with coexistent disease.

CONCLUSION

A sizeable fraction of patients with ACP or ALC have coexistent disease. Future studies should define the prevalence of coexistent disease in women and minority populations, and the consequences of coexistent disease on clinical presentation and short- and long-term outcomes.

Application of Baveno Criteria and Modified Baveno Criteria with Shear-wave Elastography in Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

We aimed to validate Baveno VI and expanded Baveno VI criteria using two dimensional shear-wave elastography (2D-SWE) in compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients with alcohol as the main etiology.

METHODS

Clinical data from 305 patients with cACLD who underwent a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) with 2D-SWE and endoscopy were consecutively collected.

RESULTS

Among 305 patients, high-risk varix (HRV) was identified in 21.3% (n = 65). The main etiology was alcoholic liver disease (51.8%), followed by hepatitis B virus (29.8%) and hepatitis C virus (9.1%). Baveno VI criteria spared endoscopy in 118 of the 305 (38.7%) patients, and 7 (5.9%) were missed with HRV. Expanded Baveno VI criteria spared more endoscopies (60.0%), but missed more HRV (9.8%) compared with Baveno VI criteria. The other classification described as the modified Baveno VI criteria were LSM < 25 kPa and PLT ≥ 150 × 10³/mm³. In total, 131 of the 305 (43.0%) patients were within the modified Baveno VI criteria, of whom seven (5.3%) had missed HRV. After adding spleen diameter < 12 cm to the modified Baveno VI criteria, the number of spared endoscopies increased by 106/305 (34.8%), with three (2.8%) presenting with HRV, indicating a risk of missing HRV.

CONCLUSION

Baveno VI and expanded Baveno VI criteria with 2D-SWE were insufficient with an HRV miss rate of over 5%. The modified Baveno VI criteria with spleen diameters < 12 cm with 2D-SWE spared more endoscopies with a minimal risk of missing HRV in cACLD patients with alcohol as the main etiology.

Abstinence from alcohol and alcohol rehabilitation therapy in alcoholic liver disease: a population-based study

Objective: Abstinence from alcohol is recommended in patients diagnosed with alcoholic hepatitis (AH) and alcoholic cirrhosis (AC). We aimed to determine the impact of alcohol abstinence on prognosis of patients with AC and AH.Methods: All incident AC and AH patients in Iceland 2001-2016 were identified. Cirrhosis was confirmed clinically, biochemically, with imaging and histologically. Abstinence, alcohol rehabilitation and survival were analyzed.Results: Overall, 169 patients with AC and/or AH were identified. Eleven died during index hospitalization, leaving 158 patients for final analysis, median (IQR) age 56 years (48-65), 72% males. Over all 61 patients (39%) had AC, 40 (25%) AH and 57 (36%) features of both. Thirty-nine percent of patients remained abstinent during follow-up and 63% underwent alcohol rehabilitation. Moderate to severe ascites at diagnosis (odds ratio (OR): 3.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.37-7.02) and lack of alcoholic rehabilitation (OR: 5.28, 95% CI: 2.24- 14.11) were independent predictors of abstinence. Abstinence at one year of follow-up was not related to increased survival. Patients surviving one year, abstinence during follow-up was related to increased survival for both groups.Conclusion: Abstinence from alcohol following AC/AH diagnosis was achieved in 39% of patients. Abstinence was not related to increased survival for alcoholic liver disease patients at one-year, which might partly indicate that this might be a marker that some patients were 'too sick to drink'. AC and AH patients who survived one year and remained abstinent had a favorable long-term prognosis.

A Call to Standardize Definitions, Data Collection, and Outcome Assessment to Improve Care in Alcohol-Related Liver Disease

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is highly prevalent and appears to be increasingly reported with worsening mortality; thus, optimizing care in this patient population is imperative. This will require a multidisciplinary, multifaceted approach that includes recognizing alcohol use disorder (AUD) and existing treatments for AUD. We must also acknowledge the full spectrum of ALD clinically and histologically. For example, our current clinical definitions of alcohol-related hepatitis (AH) do not address that >95% of severe AH occurs in the setting of cirrhosis with <60% of liver explants having hepatitis. Given that the majority of ALD studies rely on clinical diagnosis and lack pathologic confirmation, prior data on the efficacy of medical treatment or use of transplantation are likely limited by intertrial and intratrial heterogeneity. Added limitations of the current field include the inconsistent reporting of relapse with the use of varying definitions and unreliable assessments. Moreover, studies fail to consistently capture the data variables that likely influence the main outcomes of interest in this population-mortality and relapse-and a global effort to create a standardized data collection tool moving forward could help effectively and efficiently aid in the advancement of this field. Conclusion: To optimize patient care and make best use of a limited resource, a systematic change in the approach to research in this population must be undertaken that creates consistent definitions for use in future research to generate reliable and reproducible results. With this in mind, we concisely reviewed the literature to summarize the current state of treating and managing ALD, the heterogeneity in definitions, and the significant opportunities for clinical and research improvement.

[Some practical issues in the management of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis]

The natural course of cirrhosis is characterized by a shift from a compensated stage without clinical manifestations to a subsequent decompensated stage, which is characterized by the development of obvious clinical symptoms, the most frequent of which are ascites, bleeding from varicose veins, bacterial infections, encephalopathy. The articles and reviews of recent years emphasize the importance of etiotropic treatment of liver cirrhosis at any stage, including the final one. In addition, pathogenetic and symptomatic therapy aimed at treating complications of cirrhosis of the liver: ascites, dilution hyponatremia, gastrointestinal bleeding, bacterial infections, and kidney damage comes to the forefront at the stage of decompensation, which allows the patient to be on the waiting list for liver transplantation. This category of patients, as a rule, is difficult to treat and has features and subtleties of reference.

Clinical course and mortality by etiology of liver cirrhosis in Sweden: a population based, long-term follow-up study of 1317 patients

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is characterized by a silent phase until decompensation, which is defined by ascites, bleeding from esophageal varices or hepatic encephalopathy.

AIM

To compare the clinical course, patterns of survival and causes of death by etiology during long-term follow-up in a large population-based cohort of patients with incident cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used population-based medical registries for a cohort study of patients with liver cirrhosis diagnosed January 2001 to December 2010, in the Scania region of Sweden. Medical records were reviewed. Patients were classified according to etiology and clinical parameters were registered. Patients were followed until December 2017.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 1317 patients, 631 were decompensated at diagnosis and 387 decompensated during follow-up. The cumulative 10-year incidence of decompensation, with death and transplantation as competing risks, was 89% in alcoholic cirrhosis, 58% in hepatitis C and 75% in cryptogenic cirrhosis. The lowest 10-year transplantation-free survival rates were found in cryptogenic cirrhosis (11%), alcohol-related cirrhosis (18%) and alcohol combined with hepatitis C (12%). Autoimmune hepatitis cirrhosis showed the best 10-year survival (53%) and hepatitis C, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, primary biliary cholangitis, and primary sclerosing cholangitis and other causes averaged 30%. Decompensation at diagnosis was an important predictor for death in all etiologies apart from alcoholic cirrhosis. 991 patients died and 91 were transplanted.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that the clinical course and survival in cirrhosis differ considerably by both etiology and state at diagnosis.

Early and late mortality following unscheduled admissions for severe liver disease across England and Wales

BACKGROUND

There is a known shortfall in hepatology service resources across England and Wales.

AIM

To investigate early and late mortality following unscheduled admissions for severe liver disease, overall and by cause of death, and to determine how mortality is related to admissions to transplant centres, transplant surgery, hospital size, consultant specialty, patient socio-demographics, seasonal and geographical factors.

METHODS

Cohorts of people with a first unscheduled admission for severe liver disease across England and Wales from 2004, based on record linkage of national inpatient and mortality data.

FINDINGS

Mortality for alcoholic liver disease and hepatic failure was 23.4% and 35.4% respectively at 60 days and 61.8% and 57.1% at 5 years. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were extremely high at 60 days (184 and 117 respectively) and remained highly increased at 5 years (16.7 and 6.3). Mortality at 5 years was most elevated from liver disease, viral hepatitis and varices. The 60-day mortality was significantly lower for patients seen by consultant hepatologists and gastroenterologists. Both early and late mortality were significantly reduced for patients admitted to transplant centres or larger hospitals, who received a liver transplant, or were resident in London. Early mortality was significantly higher for patients admitted in winter and autumn, while elevated mortality among the most vs least deprived quintile increased with longer follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The study shows a very poor prognosis for people with unscheduled hospitalisation for severe liver disease. The findings suggest that access to specialist expertise and services improves survival, both in the short and long term.

Systematic review with meta-analysis on transplantation for alcohol-related liver disease: Very low evidence of improved outcomes

BACKGROUND

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is a leading cause of liver failure and indication for liver transplantation that arises in the setting of alcohol use disorder (AUD). Previous reviews of transplantation for ALD are limited in scope of outcomes and type of ALD studied. A comprehensive systematic review could improve use of transplantation in ALD and improve future research. We hypothesize that while transplanting ALD may improve mortality and relapse, findings will be limited by pre-specified causes of heterogeneity - assessment and treatment of AUD, definition of ALD, spectrum of ALD studied, assessment and rates of relapse, and study quality and bias.

AIM

To optimize liver transplantation for ALD, understanding existing research to guide future research, we conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review, comparing liver transplant to no-transplant in patients with ALD, with a primary outcome of both short- and long-term mortality and relapse. We performed a comprehensive search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and The Cochrane Library databases for peer-reviewed journal articles comparing use of liver transplant in ALD to no-transplant. Two reviewers independently conducted screening, full text review, and data extraction according to the PRISMA guidelines. We report the quality of the evidence according to the GRADE criteria.

RESULTS

We analyzed data from 10 studies. Of 1332 participants, 34.2% (456/1332) had undergone liver transplantation, while 65.8% (876/1332) had not. While random effects meta-analysis suggested transplant in comparison to no-transplant had an association of reduced mortality that did not reach statistical significance, relative risk (RR) = 0.51 (0.25-1.05), but not relapse risk, RR = 0.52 (0.18-1.53), significant heterogeneity limited these findings. When restricted to prospective data, transplant compared to no-transplant significantly reduced mortality, RR = 0.25 (0.13-0.46, P < 0.01), and relapse, RR = 0.25 (0.14-0.45, P < 0.01), with insignificant heterogeneity but persistent small-study effects. The overall quality of the evidence was Very Low. Heterogeneity analysis suggested that AUD assessment and treatment was often not reported while ALD, relapse assessment and rate, and data collection were institutionally rather than standardly defined.

CONCLUSION

Systematic review of liver transplantation for ALD suggests reduced mortality and relapse in heterogeneous, institution-specific populations with inherent bias. To understand efficacy of transplanting ALD, our research approach must change.

Opportunities to Prevent Alcoholic Liver Cirrhosis in High-Risk Populations: A Systematic Review With Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Alcoholic liver cirrhosis is preventable and caused by heavy drinking. Few in the general population may be at risk and interventions targeting individuals at high risk may be a more feasible opportunity for prevention than interventions targeting the whole population.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review to identify opportunities to prevent alcoholic liver cirrhosis in high-risk populations. Following MOOSE guidelines, we included observational studies published between 1980 and 2017. Prospective studies of alcohol-problem cohorts were included to investigate whether alcohol-problem cohorts qualify as high-risk populations for alcoholic liver cirrhosis. Studies on the alcohol amount consumed by alcoholic liver cirrhosis patients were included to compare with the amount consumed by the general population. Moreover, studies on alcohol-related healthcare contacts prior to alcoholic liver cirrhosis diagnosis were included to identify opportunities to offer prevention interventions. Of 7198 screened references, 38 studies (N = 120,928) were included.

RESULTS

Alcohol-problem cohorts qualified as high-risk populations with an incidence of alcoholic liver cirrhosis ranging from 7 to 16% after 8-12 years. The alcohol amount consumed by alcoholic liver cirrhosis patients was high compared to the general population. For example, 45% (95%CI 34, 56) of alcoholic liver cirrhosis patients were drinking >110 g alcohol/day. Finally, there were opportunities to reach alcoholic liver cirrhosis patients prior to diagnosis; 40-61% of alcoholic liver cirrhosis patients had a previous alcohol-related healthcare contact.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that alcohol-problem cohorts are high-risk populations for alcoholic liver cirrhosis and there seems to be opportunities to reach later alcoholic liver cirrhosis cases with preventive interventions in healthcare settings.

Novel perspectives in the management of decompensated cirrhosis

The current approaches to the management of patients with decompensated cirrhosis are based on targeted strategies aimed at preventing or treating specific complications of the disease. The improved knowledge of the pathophysiological background of advanced cirrhosis, represented by a sustained systemic inflammation strictly linked to a circulatory dysfunction, provides a novel paradigm for the management of these patients, with the ambitious target of modifying the course of the disease by preventing the onset of complications and multiorgan failure; these interventions will eventually improve patients' quality of life, prolong survival and reduce health-care costs. Besides aetiological treatments, these goals could be achieved by persistently antagonizing key pathophysiological events, such as portal hypertension, abnormal bacterial translocation from the gut, liver damage, systemic inflammation, circulatory dysfunction and altered immunological responses. Interestingly, in addition to strategies based on new therapeutic agents, these targets can be tackled by employing drugs that are already used in patients with cirrhosis for different indications or in other clinical settings, including non-absorbable oral antibiotics, non-selective β-blockers, human albumin and statins. The scope of the present Review includes reporting updated information on the treatments that promise to influence the course of advanced cirrhosis and thus act as disease-modifying agents.

Alcohol Biomarkers in Clinical and Forensic Contexts

BACKGROUND

Biomarkers of alcohol consumption are important not only in forensic contexts, e.g., in child custody proceedings or as documentation of alcohol abstinence after temporary confiscation of a driver's license. They are increasingly being used in clinical medicine as well for verification of abstinence or to rule out the harmful use of alcohol.

METHODS

This review is based on pertinent publications that were retrieved by a selective literature search in PubMed concerning the direct and indirect alcohol markers discussed here, as well as on the authors' experience in laboratory analysis and clinical medicine.

RESULTS

Alongside the direct demonstration of ethanol, the available markers of alcohol consumption include the classic indirect markers carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), and mean corpuscular volume (MCV) as well as direct alcohol markers such as ethyl glucuronide (EtG) and ethyl sulfate (EtS) in serum and urine and EtG and fatty acid ethyl esters (FAEE) in hair. Phosphatidylethanol (PEth) is a promising parameter that com - plements the existing spectrum of tests with high specificity (48-89%) and sensi - tivity (88-100%). In routine clinical practice, the demonstration of positive alcohol markers often leads patients to admit previously denied alcohol use. This makes it possible to motivate the patient to undergo treatment for alcoholism.

CONCLUSION

The available alcohol biomarkers vary in sensitivity and specificity with respect to the time period over which they indicate alcohol use and the minimum extent of alcohol use that they can detect. The appropriate marker or combination of markers should be chosen in each case according to the particular question that is to be answered by laboratory analysis.

Patients with liver cirrhosis show worse survival if decompensation occurs later during course of disease than at diagnosis

OBJECTIVES

Liver cirrhosis is characterized by a silent phase until decompensation, which is defined by onset of ascites, variceal bleeding, or encephalopathy. Although it is presumed that the survival of decompensated patients is the same regardless of when decompensation occurs, data to support this are scarce. We aimed to study the impact of time of decompensation on the clinical course and survival of patients with cirrhosis in a large population-based cohort.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used medical registries to define a 10-year cohort of 1317 patients with incident liver cirrhosis in the Scania region of Sweden. Medical records were reviewed. Patients were followed until December 2011, and for death or transplantation until December 2014.

RESULTS

In the cohort, 629 patients were decompensated at diagnosis, of which 505 had ascites and 44 variceal bleeding only. During follow-up, 228 patients developed ascites and 39 variceal bleeding as first complication. Patients with ascites as first complication showed worse survival than patients who had ascites at diagnosis. (5-year survival 33% vs. 15%, HR 1.60 (95% CI 1.34-1.90)). This difference persisted after adjustment for confounders, including hepatocellular cancer (HR 1.38 (95% CI 1.15-1.67)). Worse survival was also seen when bleeding from varices occurred during follow-up rather than at diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide evidence for an association between transplantation-free survival after decompensation and the time of decompensation in liver cirrhosis, with worse survival when decompensation occurs during follow-up, thus challenging the generally held, view that the survival after decompensation is independent of when decompensation occurs.

Natural History of Cirrhosis of Liver after First Decompensation: A Prospective Study in India

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

As liver cirrhosis is a dynamic condition, it is possible to improve survival in decompensated cirrhosis. Hence, we planned a prospective study to determine the natural history of cirrhosis after first decompensation.

METHODS

We enrolled all patients of liver cirrhosis who presented with first episode of decompensation defined by the presence of ascites, either overt or detected by Ultrasonography (UD), Gastroesophageal Variceal Bleeding (GEVB), and Hepatic Encephalopathy (HE). All patients were followed up to death/liver transplant or at least for the period of 1 year. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to analyze the risk of failure (death or Orthotopic Liver Transplantation (OLT)).

RESULTS

In total of 110 cirrhotic patients (93 males, mean age 50 ± 11 years), the most frequent etiology was alcohol (48%), followed by nonalcoholic steatohepatitis/cryptogenic (26%), hepatitis B (10%), autoimmune hepatitis (7%), and hepatitis C (6%). The distribution of CTP classes was: 4%, 56%, and 41% in class A, B, and C, respectively. Ascites was the most common decompensation found in 88 patients (80%) followed by HE (14%) and GEVB (6%). At 1-year follow up, transplant free survival was 78%, 2 underwent OLT, 4 developed hepatocellular carcinoma, and 24 died. Cumulative incidence of failure (death or OLT) by type of decompensation after 1 year was: 22% overt ascites, 50% GEVB, 28% UD ascites, 20% HE, and 33% ascites and GEVB concomitant.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with UD ascites do not have a negligible mortality rate as compared to overt ascites. Patients with cirrhosis after first decompensation have better transplant free survival with treatment of etiology and complications than previously mentioned in literature.

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy identifies patients at risk of faster cirrhosis progression

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) predicts poor prognosis and could reflect an advanced liver disease. We aimed to assess whether MHE could be a surrogate marker of a further liver disease.

METHODS

Prospective multicenter study including 320 cirrhotic patients, followed for up to 5 years, which were classified at baseline in compensated cirrhosis without (stage 1) and with varices (stage 2), one decompensating event (stage 3), and any second decompensating event (stage 4). Cirrhosis progression was defined by a transition towards a different stage (competing events: liver transplant due to hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death). MHE was detected by critical flicker frequency and psychometric tests.

RESULTS

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy was diagnosed in 18.2% (57/314) of patients. Cirrhosis progression occurred in 38.1% (122/320) of patients, while liver transplant was required in 10.9% (35/320), and 19.1% (61/320) died. In competing risk regression, MHE was associated with disease progression: model 1 {subhazard ratio [sHR] 2.34 [95%confidence interval (CI) 1.58-3.46]; P = 0.0001}; model 2 [sHR 2.18 (95%CI 1.43-3.33); P = 0.0001]; model 3 [sHR 2.48 (95%CI 1.63-3.76); P = 0.0001]. The annual incidence rate of progression was higher in MHE patients: stage 1 (19.4 vs 5.6 cases per 100 person-years); stage 2 (26.8 vs 15.6); stage 3 (45.7 vs 16.5); and stage 4 (40.7 vs 12.8). MHE showed a higher cumulative incidence of disease progression from the first year in decompensated and the third year in compensated cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy was associated with cirrhosis progression and showed a higher cumulative and annual incidence rate of disease progression. MHE could be a surrogate marker of disease progression, irrespective of cirrhosis status, identifying patients at risk of suffering a more aggressive cirrhosis form.

Economic impact of the use of rifaximin 550 mg twice daily for the treatment of overt hepatic encephalopathy in Italy

Purpose

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is associated with a reduced survival, an increased risk of hospitalization for recurrences, and a reduced health-related quality of life. The purpose of the present economic analysis was to evaluate the impact on the Italian National Health Service (INHS) expenditure of the treatment with rifaximin 550 mg twice daily (Tixteller^®/Tixtar^®) for the reduction of the recurrences of overt HE, with respect to the current treatment approach.

Patients and methods

Costs associated with patients treated with rifaximin 550 mg twice daily were estimated considering the reduction in hospitalizations for HE recurrences revealed by registrative clinical trial (−50%) applied to the hospitalization rate (42.5%) emerging from an Italian observational real-world study; costs associated with patients not treated with rifaximin were estimated based on the hospitalization rate, resulting from the same Italian observational study. Sensitivity analyses considering possible different discount levels to INHS structures for rifaximin were performed. The INHS perspective for a period of 3 years was considered.

Results

The treatment with rifaximin 550 mg twice daily, although increasing drug costs, is associated with a reduction in hospitalizations for HE recurrences that leads to an overall reduction of total costs charged to INHS, which could be estimated, based on the forecasted uptake of the treatment, at about €130,000 in the first year, reaching ~€260,000 in the third year. Considering a possible discount for rifaximin 550 mg to INHS structure of 20%, the total saving at the third year accounts for ~€3,000,000. Moreover, a relevant reduction in the number of hospitalizations and bed days is associated with rifaximin treatment.

Conclusion

The treatment with rifaximin 550 mg twice daily, even if associated with an increase in drug expenditure, results in a reduction in total health care costs charged to INHS due to a reduction in hospitalizations for HE recurrences.

Cost-effectiveness of enhanced liver fibrosis test to assess liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C virus and alcoholic liver disease patients

AIM

To assess liver fibrosis (LF) in hepatitis C virus (HCV) and alcoholic liver disease (ALD), estimate health outcomes and costs of new noninvasive testing strategies

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to simulate LF progression in HCV and ALD for a cohort of 40-year-old men with abnormal levels of transaminases. Three different testing alternatives were studied: a single liver biopsy; annual Enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF™) followed by liver stiffness measurement (LSM) imaging as a confirmation test if the ELF test is positive; and annual ELF test without LSM. The analysis was performed from the perspective of a university hospital in Spain. Clinical data were obtained from published literature. Costs were sourced from administrative databases of the hospital. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

In HCV patients, annual sequential ELF test/LSM and annual ELF test alone prevented respectively 12.9 and 13.3 liver fibrosis-related deaths per 100 persons tested, compared to biopsy. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were respectively €13400 and €11500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). In ALD, fibrosis-related deaths decreased by 11.7 and 22.1 per 100 persons tested respectively with sequential ELF test/LSM and annual ELF test alone. ICERs were €280 and €190 per QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The use of the ELF test with or without a confirmation LSM are cost-effective options compared to a single liver biopsy for testing liver fibrosis in HCV and ALD patients in Spain.

Liver stiffness and platelet count for identifying patients with compensated liver disease at low risk of variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The 2015 Baveno VI guidelines recommend against performing upper gastrointestinal endoscopy in patients with compensated cirrhosis who have a liver stiffness <20 kPa and a platelet count >150 000/mm³ because of a low prevalence of varices at risk of bleeding in this population. The aim was to synthesize the available evidence on the usefulness of the combined use of liver stiffness and platelet count to identify patients without oesophageal varices.

METHODS

Meta-analysis of trials evaluating the usefulness of a given cut-off for liver stiffness and platelet count to rule out the presence of oesophageal varices.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies were included. All studies excepting five used the Baveno VI criteria. Compared to patients with either high liver stiffness or low platelet count, those with low liver stiffness and normal platelet count had a lower risk of varices at risk of bleeding (OR=0.22, 95% CI=0.13-0.39, P<.001) with low heterogeneity between studies (I² =21%). They also had a lower risk of varices (OR=0.23, 95% CI=0.17-0.32, P<.001) with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I² =28%). In patients with low liver stiffness and normal platelet count, the pooled estimate rates for varices at risk of bleeding was 0.040 (95% CI=0.027-0.059) with low heterogeneity between studies (I² =3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with low liver stiffness and normal platelet count have a lower risk of varices than those with either high liver stiffness or low platelet count. Varices at risk of bleeding are found in no more than 4% of patients when liver stiffness is <20 kPa and platelet count is normal.

Significant Morbidity and Mortality Among Hospitalized End-Stage Liver Disease Patients in Medicare

CONTEXT

For end-stage liver disease (ESLD) patients, care focuses on managing the life-threatening complications of portal hypertension, causing high resource utilization.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the end-of-life trajectory of hospitalized ESLD patients in Medicare.

METHODS

Using a 5% random sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, we performed a retrospective cohort study, identifying hospitalized ESLD and heart failure (HF) patients (2007-2011). Index hospitalization end points included mortality, discharge to hospice, and length of stay. Postdischarge end points included all-cause mortality, rehospitalization, hospice enrollment, and days alive and out of hospital (DAOH). Follow-up was at one and three years after index hospitalization discharge. A reference cohort of decompensated HF patients was used for baseline comparison.

RESULTS

At one year, the ESLD cohort (n = 22,311) had 209 DAOH; decompensated HF (n = 85,397) had 252 DAOH. Among ESLD patients, inpatient mortality was 13.5%; all-cause mortality was 64.9%. For these outcomes, rates were higher in those with ESLD than HF. In the ESLD group, rehospitalization rate was 59.1% (slightly lower than the HF group), hospice enrollment rate was 36.1%, and there were higher than expected cancer rates. For hospice-enrolled patients, the median length of time spent in hospice was nine days. The HF cohort had lower hospice enrollment, but more days enrolled.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study show that morbidity and mortality rates associated with end of life in ESLD are substantial. There is an acute need for alternative approaches to manage the care of ESLD patients.

Incidence, survival and cause-specific mortality in alcoholic liver disease: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We studied the incidence of severe ALD requiring hospitalization in Finland, and survival and causes of death among the ALD patients.

METHODS

A cohort of 11,873 persons (8796 men and 3077 women) with diagnosis of ALD during the years 1996-2012 was identified from Finnish national Inpatient Register. The annual incidence of alcoholic hepatitis (AH) and alcoholic liver cirrhosis was calculated. The cohort was combined with the data from national Cause of Death Register of Statistics Finland.

RESULTS

The incidence of alcoholic liver cirrhosis increased from 8.8/100,000 in year 2001 to 14.6/100,000 in year 2012 among men and from 2.4 to 4.2/100,000 among women. The incidence of AH increased from 3.7 to 6.5/100,000 among men and from 1.3 to 2.7/100,000 among women. The relative 5-year survival ratios of patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis and AH were 29 and 50% among men and 38 and 52% among women, respectively. Out of 8440 deaths, 65% were due to alcoholic-related causes. The risk of death among ALD patients was increased in malignancies (SMR 6.82; 95% CI: 6.35-7.29), cardiovascular diseases (6.13; 5.74-6.52), respiratory diseases (7.86; 6.70-9.10), dementia (3.31; 2.41-4.44) and accidents and violence (11.12; 10.13-12.15).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of AH and alcoholic liver cirrhosis is increasing. The survival is poor. Most deaths are alcohol-related and other common causes of excess deaths are cancers especially in the upper aerodigestive tract and cardiovascular, digestive and respiratory diseases as well as violence and accidents.