Spatial phylodynamics of HIV-1 epidemic emergence in east Africa

A Coupled Spatial-Network Model: A Mathematical Framework for Applications in Epidemiology

There is extensive evidence that network structure (e.g., air transport, rivers, or roads) may significantly enhance the spread of epidemics into the surrounding geographical area. A new compartmental modeling framework is proposed which couples well-mixed (ODE in time) population centers at the vertices, 1D travel routes on the graph's edges, and a 2D continuum containing the rest of the population to simulate how an infection spreads through a population. The edge equations are coupled to the vertex ODEs through junction conditions, while the domain equations are coupled to the edges through boundary conditions. A numerical method based on spatial finite differences for the edges and finite elements in the 2D domain is described to approximate the model, and numerical verification of the method is provided. The model is illustrated on two simple and one complex example geometries, and a parameter study example is performed. The observed solutions exhibit exponential decay after a certain time has passed, and the cumulative infected population over the vertices, edges, and domain tends to a constant in time but varying in space, i.e., a steady state solution.

Phylogenetic evidence of extensive spatial mixing of diverse HIV-1 group M lineages within Cameroon but not between its neighbours

From the perspective of developing relevant interventions for treating HIV and controlling its spread, it is particularly important to comprehensively understand the underlying diversity of the virus, especially in countries where the virus has been present and evolving since the cross-species transmission event that triggered the global pandemic. Here, we generate and phylogenetically analyse sequences derived from the gag-protease (2010 bp; n = 115), partial integrase (345 bp; n = 36), and nef (719 bp; n = 321) genes of HIV-1 group M (HIV-1M) isolates sampled between 2000 and 2022 from two cosmopolitan cities and 40 remote villages of Cameroon. While 52.4% of all sequenced viruses belonged to circulating recombinant form (CRF) 02_AG (CRF02_AG), the remainder were highly diverse, collectively representing seven subtypes and sub-subtypes, eight CRFs, and 36 highly divergent lineages that fall outside the established HIV-1M classification. Additionally, in 77 samples for which at least two genes were typed, 31% of the studied viruses apparently had fragments from viruses belonging to different clades. Furthermore, we found that the distribution of HIV-1M populations is similar between different regions of Cameroon. In contrast, HIV-1M demographics in Cameroon differ significantly from those in its neighbouring countries in the Congo Basin (CB). In phylogenetic trees, viral sequences cluster according to the countries where they were sampled, suggesting that while there are minimal geographical or social barriers to viral dissemination throughout Cameroon, there is strongly impeded dispersal of HIV-1M lineages between Cameroon and other locations of the CB. This suggests that the apparent stability of highly diverse Cameroonian HIV-1M populations may be attributable to the extensive mixing of human populations within the country and the concomitant trans-national movements of major lineages with very similar degrees of fitness; coupled with the relatively infrequent inter-national transmission of these lineages from neighbouring countries in the CB.

Spatial distribution and determinants of HIV high burden in the Southern African sub-region

BACKGROUND

Spatial analysis at different levels can help understand spatial variation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, disease drivers, and targeted interventions. Combining spatial analysis and the evaluation of the determinants of the HIV burden in Southern African countries is essential for a better understanding of the disease dynamics in high-burden settings.

METHODS

The study countries were selected based on the availability of demographic and health surveys (DHS) and corresponding geographic coordinates. We used multivariable regression to evaluate the determinants of HIV burden and assessed the presence and nature of HIV spatial autocorrelation in six Southern African countries.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of HIV for each country varied between 11.3% in Zambia and 22.4% in South Africa. The HIV prevalence rate was higher among female respondents in all six countries. There were reductions in prevalence estimates in most countries yearly from 2011 to 2020. The hotspot cluster findings show that the major cities in each country are the key sites of high HIV burden. Compared with female respondents, the odds of being HIV positive were lesser among the male respondents. The probability of HIV infection was higher among those who had sexually transmitted infections (STI) in the last 12 months, divorced and widowed individuals, and women aged 25 years and older.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research findings show that analysis of survey data could provide reasonable estimates of the wide-ranging spatial structure of the HIV epidemic in Southern African countries. Key determinants such as individuals who are divorced, middle-aged women, and people who recently treated STIs, should be the focus of HIV prevention and control interventions. The spatial distribution of high-burden areas for HIV in the selected countries was more pronounced in the major cities. Interventions should also be focused on locations identified as hotspot clusters.

Molecular Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Ethiopia: Epidemic Decline Coincided With Behavioral Interventions Before ART Scale-Up

Background

Ethiopia is one of the sub-Saharan countries hit hard by the HIV epidemic. Previous studies have shown that subtype C dominates the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic, but the evolutionary and temporal dynamics of HIV-1 in Ethiopia have not been closely scrutinized. Understanding the evolutionary and epidemiological pattern of HIV is vital to monitor the spread, evaluate and implement HIV prevention strategies.

Methods

We analyzed 1,276 Ethiopian HIV-1 subtype C polymerase (pol sequences), including 144 newly generated sequences, collected from different parts of the country from 1986 to 2017. We employed state-of-art maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylodynamic analyses to comprehensively describe the evolutionary dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Ethiopia. We used Bayesian phylodynamic models to estimate the dynamics of the effective population size (Ne) and reproductive numbers (Re) through time for the HIV epidemic in Ethiopia.

Results

Our analysis revealed that the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic originated from two independent introductions at the beginning of the 1970s and 1980s from eastern and southern African countries, respectively, followed by epidemic growth reaching its maximum in the early 1990s. We identified three large clusters with a majority of Ethiopian sequences. Phylodynamic analyses revealed that all three clusters were characterized by high transmission rates during the early epidemic, followed by a decline in HIV-1 transmissions after 1990. Re was high (4–6) during the earlier time of the epidemic but dropped significantly and remained low (Re < 1) after the mid-1990. Similarly, with an expected shift in time, the effective population size (Ne) steadily increased until the beginning of 2000, followed by a decline and stabilization until recent years. The phylodynamic analyses corroborated the modeled UNAIDS incidence and prevalence estimates.

Conclusion

The rapid decline in the HIV epidemic took place a decade before introducing antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia and coincided with early behavioral, preventive, and awareness interventions implemented in the country. Our findings highlight the importance of behavioral interventions and antiretroviral therapy scale-up to halt and maintain HIV transmissions at low levels (Re < 1). The phylodynamic analyses provide epidemiological insights not directly available using standard surveillance and may inform the adjustment of public health strategies in HIV prevention in Ethiopia.

Analysis of the Origin and Dissemination of HIV-1 Subtype C in Bulgaria

HIV-1 subtype C is the most abundant strain of HIV-1 infections worldwide and was found in the first known patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS in Bulgaria in 1986. However, there is limited information on the molecular-epidemiological characteristics of this strain in the epidemic of the country. In this study, we analyze the evolutionary history of the introduction and dissemination of HIV-1 subtype C in Bulgaria using global phylogenetic analysis, Bayesian coalescent-based approach, and molecular clock methods. All available samples with HIV-1 subtype C from individuals diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1986 and 2017 were analyzed. Men and women were equally represented, and 24.3% of patients reported being infected abroad. The global phylogenetic analysis indicated multiple introductions of HIV-1 subtype C from various countries of the world. The reconstruction of a Bayesian time-scaled phylogenies showed that several Bulgarian strains segregated together in clusters, while others were intermixed in larger clades containing strains isolated from both European and non-European countries. The time-scale of HIV-1 subtype C introductions in Bulgaria demonstrates the early introduction of these viruses in the country. Our in-depth phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses are compatible with a scenario of multiple early introductions in the country followed by limited local distribution in the subsequent years. HIV-1 subtype C was introduced in the early years of the epidemic, originating from different countries of the world. Due to the comprehensive measures for prevention and control in the early years of the epidemic in Bulgaria, HIV-1 subtype C was not widely disseminated among the general population of the country.

The Role of Phylogenetics in Discerning HIV-1 Mixing among Vulnerable Populations and Geographic Regions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review

To reduce global HIV-1 incidence, there is a need to understand and disentangle HIV-1 transmission dynamics and to determine the geographic areas and populations that act as hubs or drivers of HIV-1 spread. In Sub-Saharan Africa (sSA), the region with the highest HIV-1 burden, information about such transmission dynamics is sparse. Phylogenetic inference is a powerful method for the study of HIV-1 transmission networks and source attribution. In this review, we assessed available phylogenetic data on mixing between HIV-1 hotspots (geographic areas and populations with high HIV-1 incidence and prevalence) and areas or populations with lower HIV-1 burden in sSA. We searched PubMed and identified and reviewed 64 studies on HIV-1 transmission dynamics within and between risk groups and geographic locations in sSA (published 1995-2021). We describe HIV-1 transmission from both a geographic and a risk group perspective in sSA. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing phylogenetic inference in mixed epidemics in sSA and offer our perspectives and potential solutions to the identified challenges.

Elucidation of Early Evolution of HIV-1 Group M in the Congo Basin Using Computational Methods

The Congo Basin region is believed to be the site of the cross-species transmission event that yielded HIV-1 group M (HIV-1M). It is thus likely that the virus has been present and evolving in the region since that cross-species transmission. As HIV-1M was only discovered in the early 1980s, our directly observed record of the epidemic is largely limited to the past four decades. Nevertheless, by exploiting the genetic relatedness of contemporary HIV-1M sequences, phylogenetic methods provide a powerful framework for investigating simultaneously the evolutionary and epidemiologic history of the virus. Such an approach has been taken to find that the currently classified HIV-1 M subtypes and Circulating Recombinant Forms (CRFs) do not give a complete view of HIV-1 diversity. In addition, the currently identified major HIV-1M subtypes were likely genetically predisposed to becoming a major component of the present epidemic, even before the events that resulted in the global epidemic. Further efforts have identified statistically significant hot- and cold-spots of HIV-1M subtypes sequence inheritance in genomic regions of recombinant forms. In this review we provide ours and others recent findings on the emergence and spread of HIV-1M variants in the region, which have provided insights into the early evolution of this virus.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Phylodynamics to Detect and Characterize Active Transmission Clusters in North Carolina

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) phylodynamics can be used to monitor epidemic trends and help target prevention through identification and characterization of transmission clusters.

METHODS

We analyzed HIV-1 pol sequences sampled in North Carolina from 1997 to 2014. Putative clusters were identified using maximum-likelihood trees and dated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference. Active clusters were defined as clusters including internal nodes from 2009 to 2014. Effective reproductive numbers (Re) were estimated using birth-death models for large clusters that expanded ≥2-fold from 2009 to 2014.

RESULTS

Of 14 921 persons, 7508 (50%) sequences were identified in 2264 clusters. Only 288 (13%) clusters were active from 2009 to 2014; 37 were large (10-36 members). Compared to smaller clusters, large clusters were increasingly populated by men and younger persons; however, nearly 60% included ≥1 women. Clusters with ≥3 members demonstrated assortative mixing by sex, age, and sample region. Of 15 large clusters with ≥2-fold expansion, nearly all had Re approximately 1 by 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

Phylodynamics revealed transmission cluster expansion in this densely sampled region and allowed estimates of Re to monitor active clusters, showing the propensity for steady, onward propagation. Associations with clustering and cluster characteristics vary by cluster size. Harnessing sequence-derived epidemiologic parameters within routine surveillance could allow refined monitoring of local subepidemics.

Environmental change and infectious diseases in the Mediterranean region and the world: an interpretive dialectical analysis

This paper presents a framework that may help explain the interactions among capitalism, infectious disease, and environmental change in the world and in the Mediterranean region. Capitalism and the longevity of national governments require continued investment and economic growth. This disrupts the environment, most urgently in terms of climate change, which is expected to single out the Mediterranean region for droughts and heat and to lead to mass migrations of people and animals. Capitalism also disrupts the habitats of fauna, and creates factory farming and markets for the sale of animals from local ecologies that are being "opened up" for profitable use-all of which leads to increased interaction between potential vectors of infectious diseases and humans. Capitalist globalization has encouraged widespread international and other travel of people and goods, which can carry infectious people or animal vectors across long distances very rapidly. In sum, capitalism requires development, which creates environmental and infectious disease crises. Solving this problem will require profound political and economic change. In the immediate term, public health and medical institutions need to be protected against the pressures of austerity.

Phylogenetic and Demographic Characterization of Directed HIV-1 Transmission Using Deep Sequences from High-Risk and General Population Cohorts/Groups in Uganda

Across sub-Saharan Africa, key populations with elevated HIV-1 incidence and/or prevalence have been identified, but their contribution to disease spread remains unclear. We performed viral deep-sequence phylogenetic analyses to quantify transmission dynamics between the general population (GP), fisherfolk communities (FF), and women at high risk of infection and their clients (WHR) in central and southwestern Uganda. Between August 2014 and August 2017, 6185 HIV-1 positive individuals were enrolled in 3 GP and 10 FF communities, 3 WHR enrollment sites. A total of 2531 antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve participants with plasma viral load >1000 copies/mL were deep-sequenced. One hundred and twenty-three transmission networks were reconstructed, including 105 phylogenetically highly supported source–recipient pairs. Only one pair involved a WHR and male participant, suggesting that improved population sampling is needed to assess empirically the role of WHR to the transmission dynamics. More transmissions were observed from the GP communities to FF communities than vice versa, with an estimated flow ratio of 1.56 (95% CrI 0.68–3.72), indicating that fishing communities on Lake Victoria are not a net source of transmission flow to neighboring communities further inland. Men contributed disproportionally to HIV-1 transmission flow regardless of age, suggesting that prevention efforts need to better aid men to engage with and stay in care.

The HIV care continuum among resident and non-resident populations found in venues in East Africa cross-border areas

Introduction

HIV care and treatment in cross‐border areas in East Africa face challenges perhaps not seen to the same extent in other geographic areas, particularly for mobile and migrant populations. Here, we estimate the proportion of people with HIV found in these cross‐border areas in each stage of the HIV care and treatment cascade, including the proportion who knows their status, the proportion on treatment and the proportion virally suppressed.

Methods

Participants (n = 11,410) working or socializing in public places in selected East Africa cross border areas were recruited between June 2016 and February 2017 using the Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts method and administered a behavioural survey and rapid HIV test. This approach was designed to recruit a stratified random sample of people found in public spaces or venues in each cross border area. For participants testing positive for HIV, viral load was measured from dried blood spots. The proportion in each step of the cascade was estimated using inverse probability weights to account for the sampling design and informative HIV test refusals. Estimates are reported separately for residents of the cross border areas and non‐residents found in those areas.

Results

Overall, 43% of participants with HIV found in cross‐border areas knew their status, 87% of those participants were on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 80% of participants on ART were virally suppressed. About 20% of people with HIV found in cross border areas were sampled outside their subdistrict or subcounty of residence. While both resident and non‐resident individuals who knew their status were likely to be on ART (85% and 96% respectively), people on ART recruited outside their area of residence were less likely to be suppressed (64% suppressed; 95% CI: 43, 81) compared to residents (84% suppressed; 95% CI: 75, 93).

Conclusions

People living in or travelling through cross‐border areas may face barriers in learning their HIV status. Moreover, while non‐residents were more likely to be on treatment than residents, they were less likely to be suppressed, suggesting gaps in continuity of care for people in East Africa travelling outside their area of residence despite timely initiation of treatment.

A new method for inferring timetrees from temporally sampled molecular sequences

Pathogen timetrees are phylogenies scaled to time. They reveal the temporal history of a pathogen spread through the populations as captured in the evolutionary history of strains. These timetrees are inferred by using molecular sequences of pathogenic strains sampled at different times. That is, temporally sampled sequences enable the inference of sequence divergence times. Here, we present a new approach (RelTime with Dated Tips [RTDT]) to estimating pathogen timetrees based on a relative rate framework underlying the RelTime approach that is algebraic in nature and distinct from all other current methods. RTDT does not require many of the priors demanded by Bayesian approaches, and it has light computing requirements. In analyses of an extensive collection of computer-simulated datasets, we found the accuracy of RTDT time estimates and the coverage probabilities of their confidence intervals (CIs) to be excellent. In analyses of empirical datasets, RTDT produced dates that were similar to those reported in the literature. In comparative benchmarking with Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods (LSD, TreeTime, and treedater), we found that no method performed the best in every scenario. So, we provide a brief guideline for users to select the most appropriate method in empirical data analysis. RTDT is implemented for use via a graphical user interface and in high-throughput settings in the newest release of cross-platform MEGA X software, freely available from http://www.megasoftware.net.

Pathogen timetrees trace the origins and evolutionary histories of strains in populations, hosts, and outbreaks. The tips of these molecular phylogenies often contain sampling time information because the sequences were generally obtained at different times during the disease outbreaks and propagation. We have developed a new method for inferring divergence times and confidence intervals for phylogenies with tip dates. The new Relative Times with Dated Tips (RTDT) methods showed excellent performance in the analysis of computer-simulated datasets, producing similar or better results in several evolutionary scenarios as compared to other fast, non-Bayesian methods. The new method is available in the cross-platform MEGA software package (version 10.1 and higher) that provides a graphical user interface and allows usage via a command line in scripting and high throughput analysis (www.megasoftware.net).

Distinct rates and patterns of spread of the major HIV-1 subtypes in Central and East Africa

Since the ignition of the HIV-1 group M pandemic in the beginning of the 20th century, group M lineages have spread heterogeneously throughout the world. Subtype C spread rapidly through sub-Saharan Africa and is currently the dominant HIV lineage worldwide. Yet the epidemiological and evolutionary circumstances that contributed to its epidemiological expansion remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse 346 novel pol sequences from the DRC to compare the evolutionary dynamics of the main HIV-1 lineages, subtypes A1, C and D. Our results place the origins of subtype C in the 1950s in Mbuji-Mayi, the mining city of southern DRC, while subtypes A1 and D emerged in the capital city of Kinshasa, and subtypes H and J in the less accessible port city of Matadi. Following a 15-year period of local transmission in southern DRC, we find that subtype C spread at least three-fold faster than other subtypes circulating in Central and East Africa. In conclusion, our results shed light on the origins of HIV-1 main lineages and suggest that socio-historical rather than evolutionary factors may have determined the epidemiological fate of subtype C in sub-Saharan Africa.

Homogenous HIV-1 subtype B from the Brazilian Amazon with infrequent diverse BF1 recombinants, subtypes F1 and C among blood donors

In the last decade a growing HIV/AIDS epidemic with increased incidence and AIDS-related mortality has been reported in Northern Brazil from which molecular data are scarce. Also, apparently healthy, adult blood donors, recently diagnosed with HIV-1 represent important sentinel populations for molecular studies. This cross-sectional study describes HIV-1 subtypes in blood donors from three reference public blood centers located in three States in Northern Brazil. HIV-1 pol sequencing (protease/PR, reverse transcriptase/RT) was performed on plasma samples of HIV-1 positive donors from HEMOAM, Manaus, Amazonas (n = 198), HEMERON, Porto Velho, Rondônia (n = 20) and HEMORAIMA, Boa Vista, Roraima (n = 9) collected from 2011-2017. HIV-1 subtypes were identified by REGA, phylogenetic inference; recombinant viruses were characterized by SIMPLOT. Young, single, males predominated, around half was first-time donors. Syphilis co-infection was detected in 17% (39 out of 227), 8% (18 out of 227) was anti-HBc positive. Subtype B represented ≥ 90% in Amazonas, Rondônia and Roraima, subtype C (3.1%) was found in Amazonas and Rondônia; subtype F1 (0.9%) and BF1 recombinants (5.3%) were only detected in Amazonas. Subtype B sequences from Amazonas (n = 179), Rondônia (n = 18) and Roraima (n = 9) were combined with viral strains representative of the BPANDEMIC (n = 300) and BCARIBBEAN/BCAR (n = 200) lineages. The BPANDEMIC lineage predominated (78%) although BCAR lineages were frequent in Roraima (56%) and Amazonas (22%). Subtype C and subtype F1 sequences identified here clustered within Brazilian CBR and F1BR lineages, respectively. Twelve BF1 mosaics showed 11 different recombination profiles: six were singleton unique-recombinant-forms/URFs, one displays a CRF28/29_BF-like recombinant pattern and the remaining four BF1 isolates branched with other Brazilian BF1 viruses previously described and may represent putative new CRF_BF1 from Northern Brazil. Our study shows a highly homogeneous molecular pattern with prevalent subtype B, followed by BF1, and sporadic subtype C and F1 in blood donors from the Northern region. Surveillance studies are important to monitor HIV-1 diversity which can reveal patterns of viral dissemination, especially in a highly endemic, remote and geographically isolated region as Northern Brazil.

Reconstruction of the Genetic History and the Current Spread of HIV-1 Subtype A in Germany

HIV-1 non-B infections have been increasing in Europe for several years. In Germany, subtype A belongs to the most abundant non-B subtypes showing an increasing prevalence of 8.3% among new infections in 2016. Here we trace the origin and examine the current spread of the German HIV-1 subtype A epidemic. Bayesian coalescence and birth-death analyses were performed with 180 German HIV-1 pol sequences and 528 related and publicly available sequences to reconstruct the population dynamics and fluctuations for each of the transmission groups. Our reconstructions indicate two distinct sources of the German subtype A epidemic, with an Eastern European and an Eastern African lineage both cocirculating in the country. A total of 13 German-origin clusters were identified; among these, 6 clusters showed recent activity. Introductions leading to further countrywide spread originated predominantly from Eastern Africa when introduced before 2005. Since 2005, however, spreading introductions have occurred exclusively within the Eastern European clade. Moreover, we observed changes in the main route of subtype A transmission. The beginning of the German epidemic (1985 to 1995) was dominated by heterosexual transmission of the Eastern African lineage. Since 2005, transmissions among German men who have sex with men (MSM) have been increasing and have been associated with the Eastern European lineage. Infections among people who inject drugs dominated between 1998 and 2005. Our findings on HIV-1 subtype A infections provide new insights into the spread of this virus and extend the understanding of the HIV epidemic in Germany.IMPORTANCE HIV-1 subtype A is the second most prevalent subtype worldwide, with a high prevalence in Eastern Africa and Eastern Europe. However, an increase of non-B infections, including subtype A infections, has been observed in Germany and other European countries. There has simultaneously been an increased flow of refugees into Europe and especially into Germany, raising the question of whether the surge in non-B infections resulted from this increased immigration or whether German transmission chains are mainly involved. This study is the first comprehensive subtype A study from a western European country analyzing in detail its phylogenetic origin, the impact of various transmission routes, and its current spread. The results and conclusions presented provide new and substantial insights for virologists, epidemiologists, and the general public health sector. In this regard, they should be useful to those authorities responsible for developing public health intervention strategies to combat the further spread of HIV/AIDS.

First-line HIV treatment failures in non-B subtypes and recombinants: a cross-sectional analysis of multiple populations in Uganda

Background

Our understanding of HIV-1 and antiretroviral treatment (ART) is strongly biased towards subtype B, the predominant subtype in North America and western Europe. Efforts to characterize the response to first-line treatments in other HIV-1 subtypes have been hindered by the availability of large study cohorts in resource-limited settings. To maximize our statistical power, we combined HIV-1 sequence and clinical data from every available study population associated with the Joint Clinical Research Centre (JCRC) in Uganda. These records were combined with contemporaneous ART-naive records from Uganda in the Stanford HIVdb database.

Methods

Treatment failures were defined by the presence of HIV genotype records with sample collection dates after the ART start dates in the JCRC database. Drug resistances were predicted by the Stanford HIVdb algorithm, and HIV subtype classification and recombination detection was performed with SCUEAL. We used Bayesian network analysis to evaluate associations between drug exposures and subtypes, and binomial regression for associations with recombination.

Results

This is the largest database of first-line treatment failures (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$n=1724$$\end{document}n=1724) in Uganda to date, with a predicted statistical power of 80% to detect subtype associations at an odds ratio of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\ge 1.2$$\end{document}≥1.2. In the subset where drug regimen data were available, we observed that use of 3TC was associated with a higher rate of first line treatment failure, whereas regimens containing AZT and TDF were associated with reduced rates of failure. In the complete database, we found limited evidence of associations between HIV-1 subtypes and treatment failure, with the exception of a significantly lower frequency of failures among A/D recombinants that comprised about 7% of the population. First-line treatment failure was significantly associated with reduced numbers of recombination breakpoints across subtypes.

Conclusions

Expanding access to first-line ART should confer the anticipated public health benefits in Uganda, despite known differences in the pathogenesis of HIV-1 subtypes. Furthermore, the impact of ART may actually be enhanced by frequent inter-subtype recombination in this region.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12981-019-0218-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

HIV-1 subtype diversity, transmission networks and transmitted drug resistance amongst acute and early infected MSM populations from Coastal Kenya

Background

HIV-1 molecular epidemiology amongst men who have sex with men (MSM) in sub-Saharan Africa remains not well characterized. We aimed to determine HIV-1 subtype distribution, transmission clusters and transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in acute and early infected MSM from Coastal Kenya.

Methods

Analysis of HIV-1 partial pol sequences from MSM recruited 2005–2017 and sampled within six months of the estimated date of infection. Volunteers were classified as men who have sex with men exclusively (MSME) or with both men and women (MSMW). HIV-1 subtype and transmission clusters were determined by maximum-likelihood phylogenetics. TDR mutations were determined using the Stanford HIV drug resistance database.

Results

Of the 97 volunteers, majority (69%) were MSMW; 74%, 16%, 9% and 1% had HIV-1 subtypes A1, D, C or G, respectively. Overall, 65% formed transmission clusters, with substantial mixing between MSME and MSMW. Majority of volunteer sequences were either not linked to any reference sequence (56%) or clustered exclusively with sequences of Kenyan origin (19%). Eight (8% [95% CI: 4–16]) had at least one TDR mutation against nucleoside (n = 2 [2%]) and/or non-nucleoside (n = 7 [7%]) reverse transcriptase inhibitors. The most prevalent TDR mutation was K103N (n = 5), with sequences forming transmission clusters of two and three taxa each. There were no significant differences in HIV-1 subtype distribution and TDR between MSME and MSMW.

Conclusions

This HIV-1 MSM epidemic was predominantly sub-subtype A1, of Kenyan origin, with many transmission clusters and having intermediate level of TDR. Targeted HIV-1 prevention, early identification and care interventions are warranted to break the transmission cycle amongst MSM from Coastal Kenya.

Combining Phylogenetic and Network Approaches to Identify HIV-1 Transmission Links in San Mateo County, California

The HIV epidemic in San Mateo County is sustained by multiple overlapping risk groups and is an important hub for HIV transmission in northern California. Limited access to care has led historically to delayed clinical presentation, higher rates of opportunistic infections, and an increased prevalence of antiretroviral drug resistance. The virologic and clinical consequences of treatment within these multiple ethnic and behavioral groups are poorly understood, highlighting the need for efficient surveillance strategies that are able to elucidate transmission networks and drug resistance patterns. We obtained sequence data from a group of 316 HIV-positive individuals in the San Mateo AIDS Program over a 14-year period and integrated epidemiologic, phylogenetic, and network approaches to characterize transmission clusters, risk factors and drug resistance. Drug resistance mutations were identified using the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database. A maximum likelihood tree was inferred in RAxML and subjected to clustering analysis in Cluster Picker. Network analysis using pairwise genetic distances was performed in HIV-TRACE. Participants were primarily male (60%), white Hispanics and non-Hispanics (32%) and African American (20.6%). The most frequent behavior risk factor was male-male sex (33.5%), followed by heterosexual (23.4%) and injection drug use (9.5%). Nearly all sequences were subtype B (96%) with subtypes A, C, and CRF01_AE also observed. Sequences from 65% of participants had at least one drug resistance mutation. Clustered transmissions included a higher number of women when compared to non-clustered individuals and were more likely to include heterosexual or people who inject drugs (PWID). Detailed analysis of the largest network (N = 47) suggested that PWID played a central role in overall transmission of HIV-1 as well as bridging men who have sex with men (MSM) transmission with heterosexual/PWID among primarily African American men. Combined phylogenetic and network analysis of HIV sequence data identified several overlapping risk factors in the epidemic, including MSM, heterosexual and PWID transmission with a disproportionate impact on African Americans and a high prevalence of drug resistance.

Tracking external introductions of HIV using phylodynamics reveals a major source of infections in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Despite increasing access to antiretrovirals, HIV incidence in rural KwaZulu-Natal remains among the highest ever reported in Africa. While many epidemiological factors have been invoked to explain such high incidence, widespread human mobility and viral movement suggest that transmission between communities may be a major source of new infections. High cross-community transmission rates call into question how effective increasing the coverage of antiretroviral therapy locally will be at preventing new infections, especially if many new cases arise from external introductions. To help address this question, we use a phylodynamic model to reconstruct epidemic dynamics and estimate the relative contribution of local transmission versus external introductions to overall incidence in KwaZulu-Natal from HIV-1 phylogenies. By comparing our results with population-based surveillance data, we show that we can reliably estimate incidence from viral phylogenies once viral movement in and out of the local population is accounted for. Our analysis reveals that early epidemic dynamics were largely driven by external introductions. More recently, we estimate that 35 per cent (95% confidence interval: 20-60%) of new infections arise from external introductions. These results highlight the growing need to consider larger-scale regional transmission dynamics when designing and testing prevention strategies.

High prevalence and diversity of HIV-1 non-B genetic forms due to immigration in southern Spain: A phylogeographic approach

Phylogenetic studies are a valuable tool to understand viral transmission patterns and the role of immigration in HIV-1 spread. We analyzed the spatio-temporal relationship of different HIV-1 non-B subtype variants over time using phylogenetic analysis techniques. We collected 693 pol (PR+RT) sequences that were sampled from 2005 to 2012 from naïve patients in different hospitals in southern Spain. We used REGA v3.0 to classify them into subtypes and recombinant forms, which were confirmed by phylogenetic analysis through maximum likelihood (ML) using RAxML. For the main HIV-1 non-B variants, publicly available, genetically similar sequences were sought using HIV-BLAST. The presence of HIV-1 lineages circulating in our study population was established using ML and Bayesian inference (BEAST v1.7.5) and transmission networks were identified. We detected 165 (23.4%) patients infected with HIV-1 non-B variants: 104 (63%) with recombinant viruses in pol: CRF02_AG (71, 43%), CRF14_BG (8, 4.8%), CRF06_cpx (5, 3%) and nine other recombinant forms (11, 6.7%) and unique recombinants (9, 5.5%). The rest (61, 37%) were infected with non-recombinant subtypes: A1 (30, 18.2%), C (7, [4.2%]), D (3, [1.8%]), F1 (9, 5.5%) and G (12, 7.3%). Most patients infected with HIV-1 non-B variants were men (63%, p < 0.001) aged over 35 (73.5%, p < 0.001), heterosexuals (92.2%, p < 0.001), from Africa (59.5%, p < 0.001) and living in the El Ejido area (62.4%, p<0.001). We found lineages of epidemiological relevance (mainly within Subtype A1), imported primarily through female sex workers from East Europe. We detected 11 transmission clusters of HIV-1 non-B Subtypes, which included patients born in Spain in half of them. We present the phylogenetic profiles of the HIV-1 non-B variants detected in southern Spain, and explore their putative geographical origins. Our data reveals a high HIV-1 genetic diversity likely due to the import of viral lineages that circulate in other countries. The highly immigrated El Ejido area acts as a gateway through which different subtypes are introduced into other regions, hence the importance of setting up epidemiological control measures to prevent future outbreaks.

The substitution rate of HIV-1 subtypes: a genomic approach

HIV-1M causes most infections in the AIDS pandemic. Its genetic diversity is defined by nine pure subtypes and more than sixty recombinant forms. We have performed a comparative analysis of the evolutionary rate of five pure subtypes (A1, B, C, D, and G) and two circulating recombinant forms (CRF01_AE and CRF02 AG) using data obtained from nearly complete genome coding sequences. Times to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) and substitution rates of these HIV genomes, and their genomic partitions, were estimated by Bayesian coalescent analyses. Genomic substitution rate estimates were compared between the HIV-1 datasets analyzed by means of randomization tests. Significant differences in the rate of evolution were found between subtypes, with subtypes C and A1 and CRF01_AE displaying the highest rates. On the other hand, CRF02_AG and subtype D were the slowest evolving types. Using a different molecular clock model for each genomic partition led to more precise tMRCA estimates than when linking the same clock along the HIV genome. Overall, the earliest tMRCA corresponded to subtype A1 (median = 1941, 95% HPD = 1943-55), whereas the most recent tMRCA corresponded to subtype G and CRF01_AE subset 3 (median = 1971, 95% HPD = 1967-75 and median = 1972, 95% HPD = 1970-75, respectively). These results suggest that both biological and epidemiological differences among HIV-1M subtypes are reflected in their evolutionary dynamics. The estimates obtained for tMRCAs and substitution rates provide information that can be used as prior distributions in future Bayesian coalescent analyses of specific HIV-1 subtypes/CRFs and genes.

Phylodynamic applications in 21st century global infectious disease research

BACKGROUND

Phylodynamics, the study of the interaction between epidemiological and pathogen evolutionary processes within and among populations, was originally defined in the context of rapidly evolving viruses and used to characterize transmission dynamics. The concept of phylodynamics has evolved since the early 21st century, extending its reach to slower-evolving pathogens, including bacteria and fungi, and to the identification of influential factors in disease spread and pathogen population dynamics.

RESULTS

The phylodynamic approach has now become a fundamental building block for the development of comparative phylogenetic tools capable of incorporating epidemiological surveillance data with molecular sequences into a single statistical framework. These innovative tools have greatly enhanced scientific investigations of the temporal and geographical origins, evolutionary history, and ecological risk factors associated with the growth and spread of viruses such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Zika, and dengue and bacteria such as Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

CONCLUSIONS

Capitalizing on an extensive review of the literature, we discuss the evolution of the field of infectious disease epidemiology and recent accomplishments, highlighting the advancements in phylodynamics, as well as the challenges and limitations currently facing researchers studying emerging pathogen epidemics across the globe.

Aspects on the history of transmission and favor of distribution of viruses by iatrogenic action: perhaps an example of a paradigm of the worldwide spread of HIV

Transmission of infectious agents might be associated with iatrogenic actions of charitable help in health care. An example is the vaccination against yellow fever in USA that transmitted hepatitis B virus. Another example is injections of praziquantel for treatment and cure of schistosomiasis in Central and Northern Africa, with a focus in Egypt that has spread hepatitis C virus. There is no indication that human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 was spread by injection treatment for African trypanosomiasis, syphilis and treponematosis, but these treatments might have contributed to the early spread of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in Central Africa. Slave trade contributed as well to the spread of viruses from Africa to the Americas; it was stopped in 1850. Until that date HIV-1 was not transported to the Americas. By analysis of nucleic acid sequence data it can be concluded that the continental spread of HCV and HIV-1 might have started around 1920 with an exponential phase from 1940 to 1970. Further iatrogenic actions that promoted the spread of HCV and HIV-1 might be vaccinations to prevent deadly diseases. The successful vaccination was followed by diminution of the infectious agent in the population such as small pox, yellow fever and measles. Measurements to reduce the spread of plague and cholera were further benefits increasing survival of diseased subjects in a population. Thus, the reduction of exposure to deadly infectious agents might have given a chance to HIV-1 infected subjects to survive and for HIV-1 to be distributed around the world starting from Central Africa in the 1950s.

Geolocalization of HIV-1 subtypes and resistance mutations of patients failing antiretroviral therapy in Salvador - Brazil

Background

Geographical distribution of HIV variants is an important way to understand the circulation and spread of such viral strains.

Objectives

To evaluate the spatial distribution of HIV-1 variants in patients failing antiretroviral therapy, in Salvador, Brazil.

Methods

We performed a cross-sectional evaluation of HIV resistance test reports of patients who underwent genotyping tests in a referral center in Salvador, Brazil, for the years 2008–2014. The laboratory database contains around 2500 resistance reports of patients failing antiretroviral therapy. Genotypic tests were performed by sequencing of HIV-1 POL region (TrueGene, Siemens). We assessed HIV-1 resistance mutations and subtype, as well as residential address, age, and gender of patients.

Results

We evaluated 1300 reports, 772 (59.4%) of them from male patients. As expected, subtype B predominated (79%) followed by subtypes F1 (6.7%) and BF (6.5%). The most frequent mutations in HIV-1 reverse transcriptase were 184V (79.1%), 41L (33.5%), 67N (30.4%), 103N (42.4%), and 108I (11.1%). Most frequent mutations in HIV-1 protease were 63P (52.4%), 36I (47.9%), 15 V (33.0%), 62 V (28.1%) and 13 V (25.8%). Some mutations (41L, 215Y, 210W) were significantly more frequent among men. We detected a significantly higher accumulation of 103N mutation in specific areas of Salvador. We identified a more restricted circulation pattern for subtype FB (more frequent in some regions), and F1 (almost absent in a specific region).

Conclusion

Our results suggest that specific subtypes/resistance mutations present a distinct frequency rate in specific areas of Salvador, probably due to a restricted circulation pattern. This trend to clustering was observed in regions covered by AIDS referral centers, suggesting that pattern of care for such patients can interfere in virological outcomes.

Phylodynamic and Phylogeographic Profiles of Subtype B HIV-1 Epidemics in South Spain

BACKGROUND

Since 1982, HIV-1 epidemics have evolved to different scenarios in terms of transmission routes, subtype distribution and characteristics of transmission clusters. We investigated the evolutionary history of HIV-1 subtype B in south Spain.

PATIENTS & METHODS

We studied all newly diagnosed HIV-1 subtype B patients in East Andalusia during the 2005-2012 period. For the analysis, we used the reverse transcriptase and protease sequences from baseline resistance, and the Trugene® HIV Genotyping kit (Siemens, Barcelona, Spain). Subtyping was done with REGA v3.0. The maximum likelihood trees constructed with RAxML were used to study HIV-1 clustering. Phylogeographic and phylodynamic profiles were studied by Bayesian inference methods with BEAST v1.7.5 and SPREAD v1.0.6.

RESULTS

Of the 493 patients infected with HIV-1 subtype B, 234 grouped into 55 clusters, most of which were small (44 clusters ≤ 5 patients, 31 with 2 patients, 13 with 3). The rest (133/234) were grouped into 11 clusters with ≥ 5 patients, and most (82%, 109/133) were men who have sex with men (MSM) grouped into 8 clusters. The association with clusters was more frequent in Spanish (p = 0.02) men (p< 0.001), MSM (p<0.001) younger than 35 years (p = 0.001) and with a CD4+ T-cell count above 350 cells/ul (p<0.001). We estimated the date of HIV-1 subtype B regional epidemic diversification around 1970 (95% CI: 1965-1987), with an evolutionary rate of 2.4 (95%CI: 1.7-3.1) x 10-3 substitutions/site/year. Most clusters originated in the 1990s in MSMs. We observed exponential subtype B HIV-1 growth in 1980-1990 and 2005-2008. The most significant migration routes for subtype B went from inland cities to seaside locations.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide the first data on the phylodynamic and phylogeographic profiles of HIV-1 subtype B in south Spain. Our findings of transmission clustering among MSMs should alert healthcare managers to enhance preventive measures in this risk group in order to prevent future outbreaks.

Spatio-Temporal History of HIV-1 CRF35_AD in Afghanistan and Iran

HIV-1 Circulating Recombinant Form 35_AD (CRF35_AD) has an important position in the epidemiological profile of Afghanistan and Iran. Despite the presence of this clade in Afghanistan and Iran for over a decade, our understanding of its origin and dissemination patterns is limited. In this study, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dispersion pattern of this clade using eligible CRF35_AD gag and pol sequences available in the Los Alamos HIV database (432 sequences available from Iran, 16 sequences available from Afghanistan, and a single CRF35_AD-like pol sequence available from USA). Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm was implemented in BEAST v1.8.1. Between-country dispersion rates were tested with Bayesian stochastic search variable selection method and were considered significant where Bayes factor values were greater than three. The findings suggested that CRF35_AD sequences were genetically similar to parental sequences from Kenya and Uganda, and to a set of subtype A1 sequences available from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. Our results also showed that across all phylogenies, Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD sequences formed a monophyletic cluster (posterior clade credibility> 0.7). The divergence date of this cluster was estimated to be between 1990 and 1992. Within this cluster, a bidirectional dispersion of the virus was observed across Afghanistan and Iran. We could not clearly identify if Afghanistan or Iran first established or received this epidemic, as the root location of this cluster could not be robustly estimated. Three CRF35_AD sequences from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan nested among Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD branches. However, the CRF35_AD-like sequence available from USA diverged independently from Kenyan subtype A1 sequences, suggesting it not to be a true CRF35_AD lineage. Potential factors contributing to viral exchange between Afghanistan and Iran could be injection drug networks and mass migration of Afghan refugees and labours to Iran, which calls for extensive preventive efforts.

'Deadly gonorrhoea': history, collective memory and early HIV epidemiology in East Central Africa

This article combines local oral reminiscences with recent epidemiological literature to sketch a historical context around the onset and expansion of the HIV-1 epidemic in southern Uganda and north-western Tanzania. The local historical imagination has associated the appearance of AIDS in two ways. First, with specific socio-economic structures and circumstances common in the region since the 1960s and their enhancement during the 1970s due to economic changes at national and global levels. Second, the epidemic is associated with changes in the epidemiological situation. Local perspectives are supported by recent phylogenetic research and circumstantial historical evidence, on the basis of which a hypothesis on the expansion of HIV-1 in East Central Africa (southern Uganda, north-western Tanzania, Rwanda) is presented.

Virus evolution and transmission in an ever more connected world

The frequency and global impact of infectious disease outbreaks, particularly those caused by emerging viruses, demonstrate the need for a better understanding of how spatial ecology and pathogen evolution jointly shape epidemic dynamics. Advances in computational techniques and the increasing availability of genetic and geospatial data are helping to address this problem, particularly when both information sources are combined. Here, we review research at the intersection of evolutionary biology, human geography and epidemiology that is working towards an integrated view of spatial incidence, host mobility and viral genetic diversity. We first discuss how empirical studies have combined viral spatial and genetic data, focusing particularly on the contribution of evolutionary analyses to epidemiology and disease control. Second, we explore the interplay between virus evolution and global dispersal in more depth for two pathogens: human influenza A virus and chikungunya virus. We discuss the opportunities for future research arising from new analyses of human transportation and trade networks, as well as the associated challenges in accessing and sharing relevant spatial and genetic data.

High Degree of HIV-1 Group M (HIV-1M) Genetic Diversity within Circulating Recombinant Forms: Insight into the Early Events of HIV-1M Evolution

The existence of various highly divergent HIV-1 lineages and of recombination-derived sequence tracts of indeterminate origin within established circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) strongly suggests that HIV-1 group M (HIV-1M) diversity is not fully represented under the current classification system. Here we used a fully exploratory screen for recombination on a set of 480 near-full-length genomes representing the full known diversity of HIV-1M. We decomposed recombinant sequences into their constituent parts and then used maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analyses of this mostly recombination-free data set to identify rare divergent sequence lineages that fall outside the major named HIV-1M taxonomic groupings. We found that many of the sequence fragments occurring within CRFs (including CRF04_cpx, CRF06_cpx, CRF11_cpx, CRF18_cpx, CRF25_cpx, CRF27_cpx, and CRF49_cpx) are in fact likely derived from divergent unclassified parental lineages that may predate the current subtypes, even though they are presently identified as derived from currently defined HIV-1M subtypes. Our evidence suggests that some of these CRFs are descended predominantly from what were or are major previously unidentified HIV-1M lineages that were likely epidemiologically relevant during the early stages of the HIV-1M epidemic. The restriction of these divergent lineages to the Congo basin suggests that they were less infectious and/or simply not present at the time and place of the initial migratory wave that triggered the global epidemic.IMPORTANCE HIV-1 group M (HIV-1M) likely spread to the rest of the world from the Congo basin in the mid-1900s (N. R. Faria et al., Science 346:56-61, 2014, http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1256739) and is today the principal cause of the AIDS pandemic. Here, we show that large sequence fragments from several HIV-1M circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) are derived from divergent parental lineages that cannot reasonably be classified within the nine established HIV-1M subtypes. These lineages are likely to have been epidemiologically relevant in the Congo basin at the onset of the epidemic. Nonetheless, they appear not to have undergone the same explosive global spread as other HIV-1M subtypes, perhaps because they were less transmissible. Concerted efforts to characterize more of these divergent lineages could allow the accurate inference and chemical synthesis of epidemiologically key ancestral HIV-1M variants so as to directly test competing hypotheses relating to the viral genetic factors that enabled the present pandemic.

A Population-Structured HIV Epidemic in Israel: Roles of Risk and Ethnicity

Background

HIV in Israel started with a subtype-B epidemic among men who have sex with men, followed in the 1980s and 1990s by introductions of subtype C from Ethiopia (predominantly acquired by heterosexual transmission) and subtype A from the former Soviet Union (FSU, most often acquired by intravenous drug use). The epidemic matured over the last 15 years without additional large influx of exogenous infections. Between 2005 and 2013 the number of infected men who have sex with men (MSM) increased 2.9-fold, compared to 1.6-fold and 1.3-fold for intravenous drug users (IVDU) and Ethiopian-origin residents. Understanding contemporary spread is essential for effective public health planning.

Methods

We analyzed demographic and virologic data from 1,427 HIV-infected individuals diagnosed with HIV-I during 1998–2012. HIV phylogenies were reconstructed with maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods.

Results

Subtype-B viruses, but not A or C, demonstrated a striking number of large clusters with common ancestors having posterior probability ≥0.95, including some suggesting presence of transmission networks. Transmitted drug resistance was highest in subtype B (13%). MSM represented a frequent risk factor in cross-ethnic transmission, demonstrated by the presence of Israeli-born with non-B virus infections and FSU immigrants with non-A subtypes.

Conclusions

Reconstructed phylogenetic trees demonstrated substantial grouping in subtype B, but not in non-MSM subtype-A or in subtype-C, reflecting differences in transmission dynamics linked to HIV transmission categories. Cross-ethnic spread occurred through multiple independent introductions, with MSM playing a prevalent role in the transmission of the virus. Such data provide a baseline to track epidemic trends and will be useful in informing and quantifying efforts to reduce HIV transmission.

Analysis of the history and spread of HIV-1 in Uganda using phylodynamics

HIV prevalence has decreased in Uganda since the 1990s, but remains substantial within high-risk groups. Here, we reconstruct the history and spread of HIV subtypes A1 and D in Uganda and explore the transmission dynamics in high-risk populations. We analysed HIV pol sequences from female sex workers in Kampala (n = 42), Lake Victoria fisher-folk (n = 46) and a rural clinical cohort (n = 74), together with publicly available sequences from adjacent regions in Uganda (n = 412) and newly generated sequences from samples taken in Kampala in 1986 (n = 12). Of the sequences from the three Ugandan populations, 60 (37.1 %) were classified as subtype D, 54 (33.3 %) as subtype A1, 31 (19.1 %) as A1/D recombinants, six (3.7 %) as subtype C, one (0.6 %) as subtype G and 10 (6.2 %) as other recombinants. Among the A1/D recombinants we identified a new candidate circulating recombinant form. Phylodynamic and phylogeographic analyses using BEAST indicated that the Ugandan epidemics originated in 1960 (1950-1968) for subtype A1 and 1973 (1970-1977) for D, in rural south-western Uganda with subsequent spread to Kampala. They also showed extensive interconnection with adjacent countries. The sequence analysis shows both epidemics grew exponentially during the 1970s-1980s and decreased from 1992, which agrees with HIV prevalence reports in Uganda. Inclusion of sequences from the 1980s indicated the origin of both epidemics was more recent than expected and substantially narrowed the confidence intervals in comparison to previous estimates. We identified three transmission clusters and ten pairs, none of them including patients from different populations, suggesting active transmission within a structured transmission network.

On the early dynamics and spread of HIV-1

Until recently, the origin of the HIV-1 group M pandemic largely remained a scientific mystery. The use of comprehensive evolutionary analyses has revealed a unique story regarding viral migration, starting in the 1920s in Kinshasa, and the social and infrastructural changes associated with the early spread of this deadly virus.

The geography of malaria genetics in the Democratic Republic of Congo: A complex and fragmented landscape

Understanding how malaria parasites move between populations is important, particularly given the potential for malaria to be reintroduced into areas where it was previously eliminated. We examine the distribution of malaria genetics across seven sites within the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and two nearby countries, Ghana and Kenya, in order to understand how the relatedness of malaria parasites varies across space, and whether there are barriers to the flow of malaria parasites within the DRC or across borders. Parasite DNA was retrieved from dried blood spots from 7 Demographic and Health Survey sample clusters in the DRC. Malaria genetic characteristics of parasites from Ghana and Kenya were also obtained. For each of 9 geographic sites (7 DRC, 1 Ghana and 1 Kenya), a pair-wise RST statistic was calculated, indicating the genetic distance between malaria parasites found in those locations. Mapping genetics across the spatial extent of the study area indicates a complex genetic landscape, where relatedness between two proximal sites may be relatively high (RST > 0.64) or low (RST < 0.05), and where distal sites also exhibit both high and low genetic similarity. Mantel's tests suggest that malaria genetics differ as geographic distances increase. Principal Coordinate Analysis suggests that genetically related samples are not co-located. Barrier analysis reveals no significant barriers to gene flow between locations. Malaria genetics in the DRC have a complex and fragmented landscape. Limited exchange of genes across space is reflected in greater genetic distance between malaria parasites isolated at greater geographic distances. There is, however, evidence for close genetic ties between distally located sample locations, indicating that movement of malaria parasites and flow of genes is being driven by factors other than distance decay. This research demonstrates the contributions that spatial disease ecology and landscape genetics can make to understanding the evolutionary dynamics of infectious diseases.

HIV epidemiology. The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations

Thirty years after the discovery of HIV-1, the early transmission, dissemination, and establishment of the virus in human populations remain unclear. Using statistical approaches applied to HIV-1 sequence data from central Africa, we show that from the 1920s Kinshasa (in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo) was the focus of early transmission and the source of pre-1960 pandemic viruses elsewhere. Location and dating estimates were validated using the earliest HIV-1 archival sample, also from Kinshasa. The epidemic histories of HIV-1 group M and nonpandemic group O were similar until ~1960, after which group M underwent an epidemiological transition and outpaced regional population growth. Our results reconstruct the early dynamics of HIV-1 and emphasize the role of social changes and transport networks in the establishment of this virus in human populations.

HIV epidemiology. The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations

Thirty years after the discovery of HIV-1, the early transmission, dissemination, and establishment of the virus in human populations remain unclear. Using statistical approaches applied to HIV-1 sequence data from central Africa, we show that from the 1920s Kinshasa (in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo) was the focus of early transmission and the source of pre-1960 pandemic viruses elsewhere. Location and dating estimates were validated using the earliest HIV-1 archival sample, also from Kinshasa. The epidemic histories of HIV-1 group M and nonpandemic group O were similar until ~1960, after which group M underwent an epidemiological transition and outpaced regional population growth. Our results reconstruct the early dynamics of HIV-1 and emphasize the role of social changes and transport networks in the establishment of this virus in human populations.

Phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics in generalized HIV epidemics: an essential tool where the burden is greatest?

Efficient and effective HIV prevention measures for generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa have not yet been validated at the population level. Design and impact evaluation of such measures requires fine-scale understanding of local HIV transmission dynamics. The novel tools of HIV phylogenetics and molecular epidemiology may elucidate these transmission dynamics. Such methods have been incorporated into studies of concentrated HIV epidemics to identify proximate and determinant traits associated with ongoing transmission. However, applying similar phylogenetic analyses to generalized epidemics, including the design and evaluation of prevention trials, presents additional challenges. Here we review the scope of these methods and present examples of their use in concentrated epidemics in the context of prevention. Next, we describe the current uses for phylogenetics in generalized epidemics and discuss their promise for elucidating transmission patterns and informing prevention trials. Finally, we review logistic and technical challenges inherent to large-scale molecular epidemiological studies of generalized epidemics and suggest potential solutions.

HIV Type 1 transmission networks among men having sex with men and heterosexuals in Kenya

We performed a molecular phylogenetic study on HIV-1 polymerase sequences of men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexual patient samples in Kenya to characterize any observed HIV-1 transmission networks. HIV-1 polymerase sequences were obtained from samples in Nairobi and coastal Kenya from 84 MSM, 226 other men, and 364 women from 2005 to 2010. Using Bayesian phylogenetics, we tested whether sequences clustered by sexual orientation and geographic location. In addition, we used trait diffusion analyses to identify significant epidemiological links and to quantify the number of transmissions between risk groups. Finally, we compared 84 MSM sequences with all HIV-1 sequences available online at GenBank. Significant clustering of sequences from MSM at both coastal Kenya and Nairobi was found, with evidence of HIV-1 transmission between both locations. Although a transmission pair between a coastal MSM and woman was confirmed, no significant HIV-1 transmission was evident between MSM and the comparison population for the predominant subtype A (60%). However, a weak but significant link was evident when studying all subtypes together. GenBank comparison did not reveal other important transmission links. Our data suggest infrequent intermingling of MSM and heterosexual HIV-1 epidemics in Kenya.

Molecular epidemiology of community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the genomic era: a cross-sectional study

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a leading cause of healthcare-associated infections and significant contributor to healthcare cost. Community-associated-MRSA (CA-MRSA) strains have now invaded healthcare settings. A convenience sample of 97 clinical MRSA isolates was obtained from seven hospitals during a one-week period in 2010. We employed a framework integrating Staphylococcus protein A typing and full-genome next-generation sequencing. Single nucleotide polymorphisms were analyzed using phylodynamics. Twenty-six t002, 48 t008, and 23 other strains were identified. Phylodynamic analysis of 30 t008 strains showed ongoing exponential growth of the effective population size the basic reproductive number (R0) ranging from 1.24 to 1.34. No evidence of hospital clusters was identified. The lack of phylogeographic clustering suggests that community introduction is a major contributor to emergence of CA-MRSA strains within hospitals. Phylodynamic analysis provides a powerful framework to investigate MRSA transmission between the community and hospitals, an understanding of which is essential for control.

Reconciling phylodynamics with epidemiology: the case of dengue virus in southern Vietnam

Coalescent methods are widely used to infer the demographic history of populations from gene genealogies. These approaches—often referred to as phylodynamic methods—have proven especially useful for reconstructing the dynamics of rapidly evolving viral pathogens. Yet, population dynamics inferred from viral genealogies often differ widely from those observed from other sources of epidemiological data, such as hospitalization records. We demonstrate how a modeling framework that allows for the direct fitting of mechanistic epidemiological models to genealogies can be used to test different hypotheses about what ecological factors cause phylodynamic inferences to differ from observed dynamics. We use this framework to test different hypotheses about why dengue serotype 1 (DENV-1) population dynamics in southern Vietnam inferred using existing phylodynamic methods differ from hospitalization data. Specifically, we consider how factors such as seasonality, vector dynamics, and spatial structure can affect inferences drawn from genealogies. The coalescent models we derive to take into account vector dynamics and spatial structure reveal that these ecological complexities can substantially affect coalescent rates among lineages. We show that incorporating these additional ecological complexities into coalescent models can also greatly improve estimates of historical population dynamics and lead to new insights into the factors shaping viral genealogies.

Effect of HIV-1 subtypes on disease progression in rural Uganda: a prospective clinical cohort study

Objective

We examined the association of HIV-1 subtypes with disease progression based on three viral gene regions.

Design

A prospective HIV-1 clinical cohort study in rural Uganda.

Methods

Partial gag, env and pol genes were sequenced. Cox proportional hazard regression modelling was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of progression to: CD4≤250, AIDS onset and death, adjusted for sex, age and CD4 count at enrolment.

Results

Between 1990 and 2010, 292 incident cases were subtyped: 25% had subtype A, 45% had D, 26% had A/D recombinants, 1% had C and 4% were other recombinant forms. Of the 278 incident cases included in the disease progression analysis, 62% progressed to CD4≤250, 32% to AIDS, and 34% died with a higher proportion being among subtype D cases. The proportions of individuals progressing to the three endpoints were significantly higher among individuals infected with subtype D. Throughout the study period, individuals infected with subtype D progressed faster to CD4≤250, adjusted HR (aHR), (95% CI) = 1.72 (1.16–2.54), but this was mainly due to events in the period before antiretroviral therapy (ART) introduction, when individuals infected with subtype D significantly progressed faster to CD4≤250 than subtype A cases; aHR (95% CI) = 1.78 (1.01–3.14).

Conclusions

In this population, HIV-1 subtype D was the most prevalent and was associated with faster HIV-1 disease progression than subtype A. Further studies are needed to examine the effect of HIV-1 subtypes on disease progression in the ART period and their effect on the virological and immunological ART outcomes.

Emergence and phylodynamics of Citrus tristeza virus in Sicily, Italy

Citrus tristeza virus (CTV) outbreaks were detected in Sicily island, Italy for the first time in 2002. To gain insight into the evolutionary forces driving the emergence and phylogeography of these CTV populations, we determined and analyzed the nucleotide sequences of the p20 gene from 108 CTV isolates collected from 2002 to 2009. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis revealed that mild and severe CTV isolates belonging to five different clades (lineages) were introduced in Sicily in 2002. Phylogeographic analysis showed that four lineages co-circulated in the main citrus growing area located in Eastern Sicily. However, only one lineage (composed of mild isolates) spread to distant areas of Sicily and was detected after 2007. No correlation was found between genetic variation and citrus host, indicating that citrus cultivars did not exert differential selective pressures on the virus. The genetic variation of CTV was not structured according to geographical location or sampling time, likely due to the multiple introduction events and a complex migration pattern with intense co- and re-circulation of different lineages in the same area. The phylogenetic structure, statistical tests of neutrality and comparison of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitution rates suggest that weak negative selection and genetic drift following a rapid expansion may be the main causes of the CTV variability observed today in Sicily. Nonetheless, three adjacent amino acids at the p20 N-terminal region were found to be under positive selection, likely resulting from adaptation events.

Current Trends of HIV Recombination Worldwide

One of the major characteristics of HIV-1 is its high genetic variability and extensive heterogeneity. This characteristic is due to its molecular traits, which in turn allows it to vary, recombine, and diversify at a high frequency. As such, it generates complex molecular forms, termed recombinants, which evade the human immune system and so survive. There is no sequence constraint to the recombination pattern as it appears to occur at inter-group (between groups M and O), as well as interand intra-subtype within group M. Rapid emergence and active global transmission of HIV-1 recombinants, known as circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) and unique recombinant forms (URFs), requires urgent attention. To date, 55 CRFs have been reported around the world. The first CRF01_AE originated from Central Africa but spread widely in Asia. The most recent CRF; CRF55_01B is a recombinant form of CRF01_AE and subtype B, although its origin is yet to be publicly disclosed. HIV-1 recombination is an ongoing event and plays an indispensable role in HIV epidemics in different regions. Africa, Asia and South America are identified as recombination hot-spots. They are affected by continual emergence and cocirculation of newly emerging CRFs and URFs, which are now responsible for almost 20% of HIV-1 infections worldwide. Better understanding of recombinants is necessary to determine their biological and molecular attributes.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the HIV-1 CRF06_cpx epidemic in Western Africa

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the origin and spatiotemporal dynamics of dissemination of the HIV-1 CRF06_cpx clade in western Africa.

DESIGN

A total of 180 HIV-1 CRF06_cpx-like pol sequences isolated from 12 different countries from west and west-central Africa over a period of 16 years (1995-2010) were analyzed.

METHODS

Evolutionary, phylogeographic and demographic parameters were jointly estimated from sequence data using a Bayesian coalescent-based method and combined with molecular epidemiology and spatial accessibility data.

RESULTS

The CRF06_cpx most probably emerged in Burkina Faso in 1979 (1970-1985). From Burkina Faso, the virus was first disseminated to Mali and Nigeria during the 1980s and later to other countries from west and west-central Africa. Demographic reconstruction indicates that the CRF06_cpx epidemic grew exponentially during the 1980s, with a median growth rate of 0.82 year (0.60-1.09 year), and after stabilize. We found a negative correlation between CRF06_cpx prevalence and the geographical distance to Burkina Faso's capital. Regional accessibility information agrees with the overall geographical range of the CRF06_cpx, but not fully explains the highly heterogeneous distribution pattern of this CRF at regional level.

CONCLUSION

The CRF06_cpx epidemic in western Africa probably emerged at the late 1970s and grew during the 1980s at a rate comparable to the HIV-1 epidemics in the United States and Europe. Burkina Faso seems to be the most important epicenter of dissemination of the HIV-1 CRF06_cpx strain at regional level. The explanation for the current geographical distribution of CRF06_cpx is probably multifactorial.

A single early introduction of HIV-1 subtype B into Central America accounts for most current cases

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) variants show considerable geographical separation across the world, but there is limited information from Central America. We provide the first detailed investigation of the genetic diversity and molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in six Central American countries. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on 625 HIV-1 pol gene sequences collected between 2002 and 2010 in Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize. Published sequences from neighboring countries (n = 57) and the rest of the world (n = 740) were included as controls. Maximum likelihood methods were used to explore phylogenetic relationships. Bayesian coalescence-based methods were used to time HIV-1 introductions. Nearly all (98.9%) Central American sequences were of subtype B. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 437 (70%) sequences clustered within five significantly supported monophyletic clades formed essentially by Central American sequences. One clade contained 386 (62%) sequences from all six countries; the other four clades were smaller and more country specific, suggesting discrete subepidemics. The existence of one large well-supported Central American clade provides evidence that a single introduction of HIV-1 subtype B in Central America accounts for most current cases. An introduction during the early phase of the HIV-1 pandemic may explain its epidemiological success. Moreover, the smaller clades suggest a subsequent regional spread related to specific transmission networks within each country.

Limited cross-border infections in patients newly diagnosed with HIV in Europe

BACKGROUND

International travel plays a role in the spread of HIV-1 across Europe. It is, however, not known whether international travel is more important for spread of the epidemic as compared to endogenous infections within single countries. In this study, phylogenetic associations among HIV of newly diagnosed patients were determined across Europe.

RESULTS

Data came from the SPREAD programme which collects samples of newly diagnosed patients that are representative for national HIV epidemics. 4260 pol sequences from 25 European countries and Israel collected in 2002-2007 were included.We identified 457 clusters including 1330 persons (31.2% of all patients). The cluster size ranged between 2 and 28. A number of 987 patients (74.2%) were part of a cluster that consisted only of patients originating from the same country. In addition, 135 patients (10.2%) were in a cluster including only individuals from neighboring countries. Finally, 208 patients (15.6%) clustered with individuals from countries without a common border. Clustering with patients from the same country was less prevalent in patients being infected with B subtype (P-value <0.0001), in men who have sex with men (P-value <0.0001), and in recently infected patients (P-value =0.045).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that the transmission of HIV-1 in Europe is predominantly occurring between patients from the same country. This could have implications for HIV-1 transmission prevention programmes. Because infections through travelling between countries is not frequently observed it is important to have good surveillance of the national HIV-1 epidemics.

Molecular epidemiology of recent HIV-1 infections in southern Poland

The genetic diversity of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) offers an opportunity to track the development of the epidemic across different populations. Viral pol gene fragments from 55 individuals of Polish origin with recent HIV-1 infection identified in 2008-2010 in four Polish cities were analyzed. Viral sequences were compared with sequences from 100 individuals (reference group) infected before 2004. Viral spread among groups with different HIV transmission categories was compared using a phylogenetic approach. The majority of sequences from individuals with recent infection were subtype B (93%) within which four transmission clusters (18% of samples) were detected. Samples from men infected through sex between men and from persons infected through injecting drugs were broadly separated (P < 0.0001), while samples from individuals infected by heterosexual contacts were dispersed uniformly within phylogenetic tree (P = 0.244) inferred from viral sequences derived from individuals infected recently and the reference group. The percentage of samples from persons infected by heterosexual contacts which clustered with samples from men infected through sex between men was not significantly higher for those with recent infection (47%), compared to the reference group (36%). In conclusion, men infected by sex between men and individuals infected through injecting drugs appear to form separate HIV transmission networks in Poland. The recent spread of HIV-1 among persons infected with subtype B by heterosexual contacts appears to be linked to both these groups.

Circulating trends of non-B HIV type 1 subtypes among Kenyan individuals

As the AIDS pandemic progresses, an increasingly broad range of genetic diversity continues to be reported within the main (M) group of HIV-1 viruses with viral subtype predominating in specific geographic areas. To determine the genetic diversity of HIV-1 subtypes among Kenyan individuals, the env-C2-V3 gene was successfully sequenced in samples from 176 patients. Analysis of the sequences showed that a majority of them belonged to subtype A1: 73.9% (130/176), followed by C: 10.8% (19/176), D: 10.2% (18/176), and 0.6% (1/176) for G and A2 as pure subtypes while the rest were recombinants of A1/U: 2.3% (4/176) and 0.6% (1/176) each for D/U, A/C/U, and AC. Similar to previous studies conducted in other parts of Kenya, HIV-1 subtype A1 still remains the most predominant subtype while subtype C continues to show an increasing prevalence. Continued surveillance of circulating subtypes of HIV-1 in Kenya is important in determining the evolution of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Kenya.

Population dynamics of HIV-2 in rural West Africa: comparison with HIV-1 and ongoing transmission at the heart of the epidemic

OBJECTIVES

To compare the population dynamics of HIV-2 and HIV-1, and to characterize ongoing HIV-2 transmission in rural Guinea-Bissau.

DESIGN

Phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses using HIV-2 gag and env, and HIV-1 env sequences, combined with epidemiological data from a community cohort.

METHODS

Samples were obtained from surveys in 1989-1991, 1996-1997, 2003 and 2006-2007. Phylogenies were reconstructed using sequences from 103 HIV-2-infected and 56 HIV-1-infected patients using Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis by Sampling Trees (BEAST), a relaxed molecular clock and a Bayesian skyline coalescent model.

RESULTS

Bayesian skyline plots showed a strong increase in the 1990s of the HIV-1 effective population size (Ne) in the same period that the Ne of HIV-2 came into a plateau phase. The population dynamics of both viruses were remarkably similar following initial introduction. Incident infections were found more often in HIV-2 transmission clusters, with 55-58% of all individuals contributing to ongoing transmission. Some phylogenetically linked sexual partners had discordant viral loads (undetectable vs. detectable), suggesting host factors dictate the risk of disease progression in HIV-2. Multiple HIV-2 introductions into the cohort are evident, but ongoing transmission has occurred predominantly within the community.

CONCLUSION

Comparison of HIV-1 and HIV-2 phylodynamics in the same community suggests both viruses followed similar growth patterns following introduction, and is consistent with the hypothesis that HIV-1 may have played a role in the decline of HIV-2 via competitive exclusion. The source of ongoing HIV-2 transmission in the cohort appears to be new HIV-2 cases, rather than the pool of older infections established during the early growth of HIV-2.