Mortality and loss to follow-up in the first year of ART: Malawi national ART programme

The effect of proactive, interactive, two-way texting on 12-month retention in antiretroviral therapy: Findings from a quasi-experimental study in Lilongwe, Malawi

BACKGROUND

Retaining clients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is challenging, especially during the first year on ART. Mobile health (mHealth) interventions show promise to close retention gaps. We aimed to assess reach (who received the intervention?) and effectiveness (did it work?) of a hybrid two-way texting (2wT) intervention to improve ART retention at a large public clinic in Lilongwe, Malawi.

METHODS

Between August 2021-June 2023, in a quasi-experimental study, outcomes were compared between two cohorts of new ART clients: 1) those opting into 2wT who received automated, weekly motivation short messaging service (SMS) messages and response-requested appointment reminders; and 2) a matched historical cohort receiving standard of care (SoC). Reach was defined as "the proportion clients ≤6 months of ART initiation eligible for 2wT". 2wT effectiveness was assessed in time-to-event analysis. Retention was presented in a Kaplan-Meier plot and compared between 2wT and SoC using a log-rank test. The effect of 2wT on ART dropout (lost to follow-up or stopped ART) was estimated using Fine-Gray competing risk regression models, adjusting for sex, age and WHO HIV stage at ART initiation.

RESULTS

Of 1,146 clients screened, 501 were eligible for 2wT, a reach of 44%. Lack of phone (393/645; 61%) and illiteracy (149/645; 23%) were the most common ineligibility reasons. Among 468 participants exposed to 2wT, 12-month probability of ART retention was 91% (95% CI: 88% - 94%) compared to 76% (95% CI: 72% - 80%) among 468 SoC participants (p<0.001). Compared to SoC, 2wT participants had a 65% lower hazard of ART dropout at any timepoint (sub-distribution hazard ratio 0.35, 95% CI: 0.24-0.51; p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

2wT did not reach all clients. For those who opted-in, 2wT significantly increased 12-month ART retention. Expansion of 2wT as a complement to other retention interventions should be considered in other low-resource, routine ART settings.

The effect of proactive, interactive, two-way texting on 12-month retention in antiretroviral therapy: findings from a quasi-experimental study in Lilongwe, Malawi

Background

Retaining clients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is challenging especially during the first year on ART. Mobile health (mHealth) interventions show promise to close retention gaps. We aimed to assess reach (who received the intervention?) and effectiveness (did it work?) of a hybrid two-way texting (2wT) intervention to improve ART retention at a large public clinic in Lilongwe, Malawi.

Methods

Between August 2021 - June 2023, a quasi-experimental study compared outcomes between two cohorts of new ART clients: 1) those opting into 2wT with combined automated, weekly motivation short messaging service (SMS) messages and response-requested appointment reminders; and 2) a matched historical cohort receiving standard of care (SoC). Reach was defined as "the proportion clients ≤6 months of ART initiation eligible for 2wT". 2wT effectiveness was assessed in time-to-event analysis comparing Kaplan-Meier plots of 6- and 12-month retention between 2wT and SoC using a log-rank test. The effect of 2wT on ART drop out was estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for sex, age and WHO stage at ART initiation.

Results

Of the 1,146 clients screened, 645 were ineligible (56%) largely due to lack of phone access (393/645; 61%) and illiteracy (149/645; 23%): a reach of 44%. Among 468 2wT participants, the 12-month probability of ART retention was 91% (95%CI: 88% - 93%) compared to 75% (95%CI: 71% - 79%) among 468 SoC participants (p<0.0001). Compared to SoC participants, 2wT participants had a 62% lower hazard of dropping out of ART care at all time points (hazard ratio 0.38, 95% CI: 0.26-0.54; p<0.001).

Conclusions

Not all clients were reached with 2wT. For those who opted-in, 2wT reduced drop out throughout the first year on ART and significantly increased 12-month retention. The proactive 2wT approach should be expanded as a complement to other interventions in routine, low-resource settings to improve ART retention.

Loss to Follow-Up Risk among HIV Patients on ART in Zimbabwe, 2009-2016: Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Modeling

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is a risk factor for poor outcomes in HIV patients. The spatio-temporal risk of LTFU is useful to identify hotspots and guide policy. Secondary data on adult HIV patients attending a clinic in provinces of Zimbabwe between 2009 and 2016 were used to estimate the LTFU risk in each of the 10 provinces. A hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal Poisson regression model was fitted using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) package with LTFU as counts adjusting for age, gender, WHO clinical stage, tuberculosis coinfection and duration on ART. The structured random effects were modelled using the conditional autoregression technique and the temporal random effects were modelled using first-order random walk Gaussian priors. The overall rate of LTFU was 22.7% (95%CI: 22.6/22.8) with Harare (50.28%) and Bulawayo (31.11%) having the highest rates. A one-year increase in the average number of years on ART reduced the risk of LTFU by 35% (relative risk (RR) = 0.651; 95%CI: 0.592-0.712). In general, the provinces with the highest exceedance LTFU risk were Matabeleland South and Matabeleland North. LTFU is one of the drawbacks of HIV prevention. Interventions targeting high-risk regions in the southern and northern regions of Zimbabwe are a priority. Community-based interventions and programmes which mitigate LTFU risk remain essential in the global HIV prevention campaign.

Predictors of loss to follow up from antiretroviral therapy among adolescents with HIV/AIDS in Tanzania

Access to Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is threatened by the increased rate of loss to follow-up (LTFU) among adolescents on ART care. We investigated the rate of LTFU from HIV care and associated predictors among adolescents living with HIV/AIDS in Tanzania. A retrospective cohort analysis of adolescents on ART from January 2014 to December 2016 was performed. Kaplan-Meier method was used to determine failure probabilities and the Cox proportion hazard regression model was used to determine predictors of loss to follow up. A total of 25,484 adolescents were on ART between 2014 and 2016, of whom 78.4% were female and 42% of adolescents were lost to follow-up. Predictors associated with LTFU included; adolescents aged 15–19 years (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.57; 95% Confidence Interval (CI); 1.47–1.69), having HIV/TB co-infection (aHR: 1.58; 95% CI, 1.32–1.89), attending care at dispensaries (aHR: 1.12; 95% CI, 1.07–1.18) or health center (aHR: 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04–1.15), and being malnourished (aHR: 2.27; 95% CI,1.56–3.23). Moreover, residing in the Lake Zone and having advanced HIV disease were associated with LTFU. These findings highlight the high rate of LTFU and the need for intervention targeting older adolescents with advanced diseases and strengthening primary public facilities to achieve the 2030 goal of ending HIV as a public health threat.

Incidence and Predictors of Loss to Follow-Up Among Children Attending ART Clinics in Northeast Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

It is known that antiretroviral therapy reduces the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus and AIDS-related morbidity. The coverage of HIV drugs is increasing to control further spread of HIV and children living with HIV are the target groups in using these medications. However, loss to follow-up remains a critical challenge among these groups of the population. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among children attending antiretroviral therapy clinics.

Methods

A ten-year institution-based retrospective cohort study was employed among 448 children enrolled in antiretroviral therapy. Data were entered and cleaned using EpiData version 3.1 and then exported to STATA version 14 for further statistical analysis. The Kaplan–Meier survival curve was used to estimate the survival time and the Log rank test was used to compare the survival time between different categories of the explanatory variables. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to identify predictors of loss to follow-up and p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

The incidence rate of loss to follow-up was 6.3 per 100 children years of observation. Being male (AHR = 2.1, CI = 1.37, 3.34), aged 1–5 years (AHR = 1.6, CI = 1.05, 2.46), poor adherence to antiretroviral therapy (AHR = 6.6; CI = 4.11, 10.66), fair adherence to antiretroviral therapy (AHR = 2.2; CI = 1.13, 4.20), regimen was not changed (AHR = 4.1; CI = 2.59, 6.45), World Health Organization stage III and IV (AHR = 2.2; CI = 1.40, 3.33) and height for age <−2 z score (AHR = 2.2; CI = 1.43, 3.44) were predictors of loss to follow-up.

Conclusion

Nearly seven out of 100 HIV-infected children were lost to follow-up from their link to ART clinics within a one-year follow-up. Non-modifiable demographic characteristics, clinical stage and nutritional status, and ART-related variables were associated with children’s loss to follow-up. Therefore, close monitoring of the “at risk” groups might decrease the rate of loss to follow-up. Improving adherence to antiretroviral therapy and nutritional support are also recommended.

Variations in the characteristics and outcomes of children living with HIV following universal ART in sub-Saharan Africa (2006-17): a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The proportion of children living with HIV and receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa has increased greatly since 2006, yet the changes in their demographic characteristics and treatment outcomes have not been well described. We examine the trends in characteristics and outcomes of children living with HIV who were younger than 5 years at ART initiation, and compare outcomes over time and across country income groups.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of data from children living with HIV who were younger than 5 years at ART initiation from 45 paediatric sites in 16 low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Benin, Burundi, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Rwanda, South Africa, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). Outcomes were trends in patient characteristics at ART initiation (age, weight, height, and CD4%), and comparisons of mortality and loss to follow-up during ART over time and in various economic settings. We identified risk factors for mortality using Cox proportional hazards models. Each participating region had relevant institutional ethics review board approvals to contribute data to the analysis.

FINDINGS

We included 32 221 children living with HIV and initiating ART younger than 5 years between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2017. Median age at ART initiation was 20·4 months (IQR 9·4-36·0) in 2006-10, 19·2 months (8·3-33·6) in 2011-13, and 19·2 months (8·8-33·7) in 2014-17. Median age at ART initiation was 13·2 months (IQR 4·7-26·8) in upper-middle-income countries, 22·6 months (13·2-37·5) in lower-middle-income countries and 24·2 months (13·5-39·1) in low-income countries. The proportion of children initiating ART younger than 3 months increased from 770 (5·1%) of 14 943 children in 2006-10 to 728 (10·0%) of 7290 children in 2014-17. The proportion of children initiating ART with severe immunosuppression decreased from 5469 (74·7%) of 7314 children for whom CD4% data were available in 2006-10 to 2353 (55·2%) of 4269 children in 2014-17. Mortality at 24 months on ART decreased from 970 (6·5%) of 14 943 children in 2006-10 to 214 (2·9%) of 7290 children in 2014-17. Loss to follow-up was 20·5% (95% CI 20·1-21·0) overall, and was similar across time periods. In multivariable analysis, lower mortality was observed for more recent ART initiation cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio 0·70, 95% CI 0·63-0·79 for 2011-13; 0·53, 0·45-0·72 for 2014-17 vs 2006-10) and for those residing in an upper-middle-income country (0·42, 0·35-0·49 vs low-income countries).

INTERPRETATION

Mortality declined significantly after universal ART recommendations for children younger than 2 years in 2010 and children younger than 5 years in 2013. However, substantial variations persisted across country income groups, and one in five children continue to be lost to follow-up. Targeted interventions are required to improve outcomes of children living with HIV, especially in the poorest countries.

FUNDING

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

Long-term outcomes of early initiated antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan children: a Cameroonian cohort study (ANRS-12140 Pediacam study, 2008-2013, Cameroon)

BACKGROUND

In most studies, the virological response is assessed during the first two years of antiretroviral treatment initiated in HIV-infected infants. However, early initiation of antiretroviral therapy exposes infants to very long-lasting treatment. Moreover, maintaining viral suppression in children is difficult. We aimed to assess the virologic response and mortality in HIV-infected children after five years of early initiated antiretroviral treatment (ART) and identify factors associated with virologic success in Cameroon.

METHODS

In the ANRS-12140 Pediacam cohort study, 2008-2013, Cameroon, we included all the 149 children who were still alive after two years of early ART. Virologic response was assessed after 5 years of treatment. The probability of maintaining virologic success between two and five years of ART was estimated using Kaplan-Meier curve. The immune status and mortality were also studied at five years after ART initiation. Factors associated with a viral load < 400 copies/mL in children still alive at five years of ART were studied using logistic regressions.

RESULTS

The viral load after five years of early ART was suppressed in 66.8% (60.1-73.5) of the 144 children still alive and in care. Among the children with viral suppression after two years of ART, the probability of maintaining viral suppression after five years of ART was 64.0% (54.0-74.0). The only factor associated with viral suppression after five years of ART was achievement of confirmed virological success within the first two years of ART (OR = 2.7 (1.1-6.8); p = 0.033).

CONCLUSIONS

The probability of maintaining viral suppression between two and five years of early initiated ART which was quite low highlights the difficulty of parents to administer drugs daily to their children in sub-Saharan Africa. It also stressed the importance of initial viral suppression for achieving and maintaining virologic success in the long-term. Further studies should focus on identifying strategies that would enhance better retention in care and improved adherence to treatment within the first two years of ART early initiated in Sub-Saharan HIV-infected children.

Proportion and reasons for loss to follow-up in a cohort study of people who inject drugs to measure HIV and HCV incidence in Kerman, Iran

Background

Understanding the reasons for loss to follow-up (LTFU) in cohort studies, especially among marginalized groups such as people who inject drugs (PWID), is needed to strengthen the rigor of efficacy trials for prevention and treatment interventions. We assessed the proportion and reasons for loss to follow-up in a recent cohort of PWID enrolled in the southeast of Iran.

Methods

Using respondent-driven sampling, we recruited 98 PWID age 18 years or older who reported injecting drugs in the past 6 months, and were negative for HIV and HCV at initial screening. Participants were followed at 6 week intervals, alternating a short six-week visit and long 12-week or quarterly visit to measure incidence of HIV and HCV. Methods to enhance retention included incentives for completing each visit, tracking people who missed the scheduled visits through their peer referral networks, engaged outreach teams to explore hotspots and residences, and photos. LTFU was defined as participants who missed their quarterly visits for two or more weeks.

Results

Mean (SD) age of participants was 39.7 years (SD 9.6). Of 98 enrolled, 50 participants (51.0%) were LTFU by missed their scheduled quarterly visits for 2 weeks or more. For those whose reasons for LTFU could be defined (46.0%, 23 of 50), main reasons were: forgetting the date of visit (43.5%, 10 of 23), being incarcerated (39.1%, 9 of 23), and moving out of the city (17.4%, 4 of 23).

Conclusion

This study highlighted the difficulty in retaining PWID in longitudinal studies. Despite having several retention strategies in place, over half of PWID were LTFU. The LTFU might be reduced by setting up more effective reminder systems, working closely with security systems, and online means to reach those who move outside the study area.

Competing risk of mortality on loss to follow-up outcome among patients with HIV on ART: a retrospective cohort study from the Zimbabwe national ART programme

OBJECTIVE

To determine the loss to follow-up (LTFU) rates at different healthcare levels after antiretroviral therapy (ART) services decentralisation among ART patients who initiated ART between 2004 and 2017 using the competing risk model in addition to the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regressions analysis.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

The study was done in Zimbabwe using a nationwide routinely collected HIV patient-level data from various health levels of care facilities compiled through the electronic patient management system (ePMS).

PARTICIPANTS

We analysed 390 771 participants aged 15 years and above from 538 health facilities.

OUTCOMES

The primary endpoint was LTFU defined as a failure of a patient to report for drug refill for at least 90 days from last appointment date or if the patient missed the next scheduled visit date and never showed up again. Mortality was considered a secondary outcome if a patient was reported to have died.

RESULTS

The total exposure time contributed was 1 544 468 person-years. LTFU rate was 5.75 (95% CI 5.71 to 5.78) per 100 person-years. Adjustment for the competing event independently increased LTFU rate ratio in provincial and referral (adjusted sub-HRs (AsHR) 1.22; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.26) and district and mission (AsHR 1.47; 95% CI 1.45 to 1.50) hospitals (reference: primary healthcare); in urban sites (AsHR 1.61; 95% CI 1.59 to 1.63) (reference: rural); and among adolescence and young adults (15-24 years) group (AsHR 1.19; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.21) (reference: 35-44 years). We also detected overwhelming association between LTFU and tuberculosis-infected patients (AsHR 1.53; 95% CI 1.45 to 1.62) (reference: no tuberculosis).

CONCLUSIONS

We have observed considerable findings that 'leakages' (LTFU) within the ART treatment cascade persist even after the decentralisation of health services. Risk factors for LTFU reflect those found in sub-Saharan African studies. Interventions that retain patients in care by minimising any 'leakages' along the treatment cascade are essential in attaining the 90-90-90 UNAIDS fast-track targets.

Who is Reached by HIV Self-Testing? Individual Factors Associated With Self-Testing Within a Community-Based Program in Rural Malawi

INTRODUCTION

HIV self-testing (HIVST) is an alternative strategy for reaching population subgroups underserved by available HIV testing services. We assessed individual factors associated with ever HIVST within a community-based program.

SETTING

Malawi.

METHODS

We conducted secondary analysis of an end line survey administered under a cluster-randomized trial of community-based distribution of HIVST kits. We estimated prevalence differences and prevalence ratios (PRs) stratified by sex for the outcome: self-reported ever HIVST.

RESULTS

Prevalence of ever HIVST was 45.0% (475/1055) among men and 40.1% (584/1456) among women. Age was associated with ever HIVST in both men and women, with evidence of a strong declining trend across categories of age. Compared with adults aged 25-39 years, HIVST was lowest among adults aged 40 years and older for both men [34.4%, 121/352; PR 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.62 to 0.88] and women (30.0%, 136/454; PR 0.71, 95% CI: 0.6 to 0.84). Women who were married, had children, had higher levels of education, or were wealthier were more likely to self-test. Men who had condomless sex in the past 3 months (47.9%, 279/582) reported a higher HIVST prevalence compared with men who did not have recent condomless sex (43.1%, 94/218; adjusted PR 1.37, 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.76). Among men and women, the level of previous exposure to HIV testing and household HIVST uptake was associated with HIVST.

CONCLUSIONS

Community-based HIVST reached men, younger age groups, and some at-risk individuals. HIVST was lowest among older adults and individuals with less previous exposure to HIV testing, suggesting the presence of ongoing barriers to HIV testing.

Pediatric HIV Care Cascade in Southern Mozambique: Missed Opportunities for Early ART and Re-engagement in Care

BACKGROUND

There are 170,000 children living with HIV in 2017 in Mozambique. Scaling-up HIV care requires effective retention along the cascade. We sought to evaluate the pediatric cascade in HIV care at the Manhiça District Hospital.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of children <15 years was followed from enrollment in HIV care (January 2013 to December 2015) until December 2016. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) was defined as not attending the HIV hospital visits for ≥90 days following last visit attended.

RESULTS

From the 438 children included {median age at enrollment in care of 3,6 [interquartile range (IQR): 1.1-8.6] years}, 335 (76%) were antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligible and among those, 263 (78%) started ART at enrollment in HIV care. A total of 362 children initiated ART during the study period and the incidence rate of LTFU at 12, 24, and 36 months post-ART initiation was 41 [95% confidence interval (CI): 34-50], 34 (95% CI: 29-41), and 31 (95% CI: 27-37) per 100 children-years, respectively. Median time to LTFU was 5.8 (IQR: 1.4-12.7) months. Children 5-9 years of age had a lower risk of LTFU compared with children <1 year [adjusted subhazard ratio 0.36 (95% CI: 0.20-0.61)]. Re-engagement in care (RIC) was observed in 25% of the LTFU children.

CONCLUSIONS

The high LTFU found in this study highlights the special attention that should be given to younger children during the first 6 months post-ART initiation to prevent LTFU. Once LTFU, only a quarter of those children return to the health unit. Elucidating factors associated with RIC could help to fine tune interventions which promote RIC.

Characterizing the double-sided cascade of care for adolescents living with HIV transitioning to adulthood across Southern Africa

INTRODUCTION

As adolescents and young people living with HIV (AYLH) age, they face a "transition cascade," a series of steps associated with transitions in their care as they become responsible for their own healthcare. In high-income countries, this usually includes transfer from predominantly paediatric/adolescent to adult clinics. In sub-Saharan Africa, paediatric HIV care is mostly provided in decentralized, non-specialist primary care clinics, where "transition" may not necessarily include transfer of care but entails becoming more autonomous for one's HIV care. Using different age thresholds as proxies for when "transition" to autonomy might occur, we evaluated pre- and post-transition outcomes among AYLH.

METHODS

We included AYLH aged <16 years at enrolment, receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) within International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) sites (2004 to 2017) with no history of transferring care. Using the ages of 16, 18, 20 and 22 years as proxies for "transition to autonomy," we compared the outcomes: no gap in care (≥2 clinic visits) and viral suppression (HIV-RNA <400 copies/mL) in the 12 months before and after each age threshold. Using log-binomial regression, we examined factors associated with no gap in care (retention) in the 12 months post-transition.

RESULTS

A total of 5516 AYLH from 16 sites were included at "transition" age 16 (transition-16y), 3864 at 18 (transition-18y), 1463 at 20 (transition-20y) and 440 at 22 years (transition-22y). At transition-18y, in the 12 months pre- and post-transition, 83% versus 74% of AYLH had no gap in care (difference 9.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.8 to 10.9)); while 65% versus 62% were virally suppressed (difference 2.7 (-1.0 to 6.5%)). The strongest predictor of being retained post-transition was having no gap in the preceding year, across all transition age thresholds (transition-16y: adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.72; 95% CI (1.60 to 1.86); transition-18y: aRR 1.76 (1.61 to 1.92); transition-20y: aRR 1.75 (1.53 to 2.01); transition-22y: aRR 1.47; (1.21 to 1.78)).

CONCLUSIONS

AYLH with gaps in care need targeted support to prevent non-retention as they take on greater responsibility for their healthcare. Interventions to increase virologic suppression rates are necessary for all AYLH ageing to adulthood.

Long-term retention on antiretroviral therapy among infants, children, adolescents and adults in Malawi: A cohort study

Objectives

We examine long-term retention of adults, adolescents and children on antiretroviral therapy under different HIV treatment guidelines in Malawi.

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Setting and participants

Adults and children starting ART between 2005 and 2015 in 21 health facilities in southern Malawi.

Methods

We used survival analysis to assess retention at clinic level, Cox regression to examine risk factors for loss to follow up, and competing risk analysis to assess long-term outcomes of people on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Results

We included 132,274 individuals in our analysis, totalling 270,256 person years of follow up (PYFU; median per patient 1.3, interquartile range (IQR) 0.26–3.1), 62% were female and the median age was 32 years. Retention on ART was lower in the first year on ART compared to subsequent years for all guideline periods and age groups. Infants (0–3 years), adolescents and young adults (15–24 years) were at highest risk of LTFU. Comparing the different calendar periods of ART initiation we found that retention improved initially, but remained stable thereafter.

Conclusion

Even though the number of patients and the burden on health care system increased substantially during the study period of rapid ART expansion, retention on ART improved in the early years of ART provision, but gains in retention were not maintained over 5 years on ART. Reducing high attrition in the first year of ART should remain a priority for ART programs, and so should addressing poor retention among adolescents, young adults and men.

Predictors of mortality within the first year of initiating antiretroviral therapy in urban and rural Kenya: A prospective cohort study

Introduction

Despite increased treatment availability, HIV-infected individuals continue to start antiretroviral therapy (ART) late in disease progression, increasing early mortality risk.

Materials and methods

Nested prospective cohort study within a randomized clinical trial of adult patients initiating ART at clinics in urban Nairobi and rural Maseno, Kenya, between 2013–2014. We estimated mortality incidence rates following ART initiation and used Cox proportional hazards regression to identify predictors of mortality within 12 months of ART initiation. Analyses were stratified by clinic site to examine differences in mortality correlates and risk by location.

Results

Among 811 participants initiated on ART, the mortality incidence rate within a year of initiating ART was 7.44 per 100 person-years (95% CI 5.71, 9.69). Among 207 Maseno and 612 Nairobi participants initiated on ART, the mortality incidence rates (per 100 person-years) were 12.78 (95% CI 8.49, 19.23) and 5.72 (95% CI 4.05, 8.09). Maseno had a 2.20-fold greater risk of mortality than Nairobi (95% CI 1.29, 3.76; P = 0.004). This association remained [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.09 (95% CI 1.17, 3.74); P = 0.013] when adjusting for age, gender, education, pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR), and CD4 count, but not when adjusting for BMI. In unadjusted analyses, other predictors (P<0.05) of mortality included male gender (HR = 1.74), age (HR = 1.04 for 1-year increase), fewer years of education (HR = 0.92 for 1-year increase), unemployment (HR = 1.89), low body mass index (BMI<18.5 m/kg²; HR = 4.99), CD4 count <100 (HR = 11.67) and 100–199 (HR = 3.40) vs. 200–350 cells/μL, and pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR; HR = 2.49). The increased mortality risk associated with older age, males, and greater education remained when adjusted for location, age, education and PDR, but not when adjusted for BMI and CD4 count. PDR remained associated with increased mortality risk when adjusted for location, age, gender, education, and BMI, but not when adjusted for CD4 count. CD4 and BMI associations with increased mortality risk persisted in multivariable analyses. Despite similar baseline CD4 counts across locations, mortality risk associated with low CD4 count, low BMI, and PDR was greater in Maseno than Nairobi in stratified analyses.

Conclusions

High short-term post-ART mortality was observed, partially due to low CD4 count and BMI at presentation, especially in the rural setting. Male gender, older age, and markers of lower socioeconomic status were also associated with greater mortality risk. Engaging patients earlier in HIV infection remains critical. PDR may influence short-term mortality and further studies to optimize management will be important in settings with increasing PDR.

Trends Over Time for Adolescents Enrolling in HIV Care in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda From 2001-2014

BACKGROUND

The data needed to understand the characteristics and outcomes, over time, of adolescents enrolling in HIV care in East Africa are limited.

SETTING

Six HIV care programs in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included individuals enrolling in HIV care as younger adolescents (10-14 years) and older adolescents (15-19 years) from 2001-2014. Descriptive statistics were used to compare groups at enrollment and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation over time. The proportion of adolescents was compared with the total number of individuals aged 10 years and older enrolling over time. Competing-risk analysis was used to estimate 12-month attrition after enrollment/pre-ART initiation; post-ART attrition was estimated by Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

A total of 6344 adolescents enrolled between 2001 and 2014. The proportion of adolescents enrolling among all individuals increased from 2.5% (2001-2004) to 3.9% (2013-2014, P < 0.0001). At enrollment, median CD4 counts in 2001-2004 compared with 2013-2014 increased for younger (188 vs. 379 cells/mm, P < 0.0001) and older (225 vs. 427 cells/mm, P < 0.0001) adolescents. At ART initiation, CD4 counts increased for younger (140 vs. 233 cells/mm, P < 0.0001) and older (64 vs. 323 cells/mm, P < 0.0001) adolescents. Twelve-month attrition also increased for all adolescents both after enrollment/pre-ART initiation (4.7% vs. 12.0%, P < 0.001) and post-ART initiation (18.7% vs. 31.2%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Expanding HIV services and ART coverage was likely associated with earlier adolescent enrollment and ART initiation but also with higher attrition rates before and after ART initiation. Interventions are needed to promote retention in care among adolescents.

Community-led delivery of HIV self-testing to improve HIV testing, ART initiation and broader social outcomes in rural Malawi: study protocol for a cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Prevention of new HIV infections is a critical public health issue. The highest HIV testing gaps are in men, adolescents 15-19 years old, and adults 40 years and older. Community-based HIV testing services (HTS) can contribute to increased testing coverage and early HIV diagnosis, with HIV self-testing (HIVST) strategies showing promise. Community-based strategies, however, are resource intensive, costly and not widely implemented. A community-led approach to health interventions involves supporting communities to plan and implement solutions to improve their health. This trial aims to determine if community-led delivery of HIVST can improve HIV testing uptake, ART initiation, and broader social outcomes in rural Malawi.

METHODS

The trial uses a parallel arm, cluster-randomised design with group village heads (GVH) and their defined catchment areas randomised (1:1) to community-led HIVST or continue with the standard of the care (SOC). As part of the intervention, informal community health cadres are supported to plan and implement a seven-day HIVST campaign linked to HIV treatment and prevention. Approximately 12 months after the initial campaign, intervention GVHs are randomised to lead a repeat HIVST campaign. The primary outcome includes the proportion of adolescents 15-19 years old who have tested for HIV in their lifetime. Secondary outcomes include recent testing in adults 40 years and older and men; ART initiation; knowledge of HIV prevention; and HIV testing stigma. Outcomes will be measured through cross-sectional surveys and clinic registers. Economic evaluation will determine the cost per person tested, cost per person diagnosed, and incremental cost effectiveness ratio.

DISCUSSION

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first trial to assess the effectiveness of community-led HTS, which has only recently been enabled by the introduction of HIVST. Community-led delivery of HIVST is a promising new strategy for providing periodic HIV testing to support HIV prevention in rural communities. Further, introduction of HIVST through a community-led framework seems particularly apt, with control over healthcare concurrently devolved to individuals and communities.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov registry ( NCT03541382 ) registered 30 May 2018.

Reengagement of HIV-infected children lost to follow-up after active mobile phone tracing in a rural area of Mozambique

INTRODUCTION

Retention in care and reengagement of lost to follow-up (LTFU) patients are priority challenges in pediatric HIV care. We aimed to assess whether a telephone-call active tracing program facilitated reengagement in care (RIC) in the Manhiça District Hospital, Mozambique.

METHODS

Telephone tracing of LTFU children was performed from July 2016 to March 2017. Both ART (antiretroviral treatment) and preART patients were included in this study. LTFU was defined as not attending the clinic for ≥120 days after last attended visit. Reengagement was determined 3 months after an attempt to contact.

RESULTS

A total of 144 children initially identified as LTFU entered the active tracing program and 37 were reached by means of telephone tracing. RIC was 57% (95% CI, 39-72%) among children who could be reached versus 18% (95% CI, 11-26%) of those who could not be reached (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Telephone tracing could be an effective tool for facilitating reengagement in pediatric HIV care. However, the difficulty of reaching patients is an obstacle that can undermine the program.

Process Evaluation of a Clinical Trial to Test School Support as HIV Prevention Among Orphaned Adolescents in Western Kenya

Orphaned adolescents are a large and vulnerable population in sub-Saharan Africa, at higher risk for HIV than non-orphans. Yet prevention of new infection is critical for adolescents since they are less likely than adults to enter and remain in treatment and are the only age group with rising AIDS death rates. We report process evaluation for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) testing support to stay in school (tuition, uniform, nurse visits) as an HIV prevention strategy for orphaned Kenyan adolescents. The RCT found no intervention effect on HIV/HSV-2 biomarker outcomes. With process evaluation, we examined the extent to which intervention elements were implemented as intended among the intervention group (N = 412) over the 3-year study period (2012-2014), the implementation effects on school enrollment (0-9 terms), and whether more time in school impacted HIV/HSV-2. All analyses examined differences as a whole, and by gender. Findings indicate that school fees and uniforms were fully implemented in 94 and 96% of cases, respectively. On average, participants received 79% of the required nurse visits. Although better implementation of nurse visits predicted more terms in school, a number of terms did not predict the likelihood of HIV/HSV-2 infection. Attending boarding school also increased number of school terms, but reduced the odds of infection for boys only. Four previous RCTs have been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, and only one found limited evidence of school impact on adolescent HIV/HSV-2 infection. Our findings add further indication that the association between school support and HIV/HSV-2 prevention appears to be weak or under-specified.

Outcomes of an HIV cohort after a decade of comprehensive care at Newlands Clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe: TENART cohort

Background

Data on long-term outcomes of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa are few. We describe outcomes of patients commenced on ART at Newlands Clinic between 2004 and 2006 after ≥10 years of comprehensive care including, psychosocial, adherence and food support.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, patient data from an electronic medical record collected during routine care were analysed. We describe baseline characteristics, virological and clinical outcomes, attrition rates, and treatment adverse effects until November 2016. We defined virological suppression as viral load <50 copies/ml and virological failure as >1000 copies/ml after ≥6 months of ART.

Results

We analysed data for 605 patients (67% female) who commenced ART, and were followed-up for 5819 person-years (median: 10.7 years, IQR: 10.1–11.4). Median age at ART initiation was 34 years (IQR: 17–42). Pre-ART, 129 (21.3%) patients had history of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). In care, 66 (11%) developed PTB, and 24 (4%) developed extrapulmonary tuberculosis. 385 (63.6%) patients experienced ≥1 adverse event, the most frequent being stavudine-induced peripheral neuropathy (n = 252, 41.7%). At database closure on 14 November 2016, 474 (78.3%) patients were still in care, 428 (90.3%) being virologically suppressed, and 21 (4.4%) failing. While 483 (79.8%) remained on first line, 122 (20.2%) were switched to second line ART. Fifty-nine patients (9.8%) were transferred to other ART facilities, 45 (7.4%) were lost to follow-up, 25 (4.1%) died, and two stopped ART.

Conclusion

Comprehensive HIV care can result in low mortality, high retention in care and virologic suppression rates in resource limited settings.

Where do HIV-infected adolescents go after transfer? - Tracking transition/transfer of HIV-infected adolescents using linkage of cohort data to a health information system platform

INTRODUCTION

To evaluate long-term outcomes in HIV-infected adolescents, it is important to identify ways of tracking outcomes after transfer to a different health facility. The Department of Health (DoH) in the Western Cape Province (WCP) of South Africa uses a single unique identifier for all patients across the health service platform. We examined adolescent outcomes after transfer by linking data from four International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) cohorts in the WCP with DoH data.

METHODS

We included adolescents on antiretroviral therapy who transferred out of their original cohort from 10 to 19 years of age between 2004 and 2014. The DoH conducted the linkage separately for each cohort and linked anonymized data were then combined. The primary outcome was successful transfer defined as having a patient record at a facility other than the original facility after the transfer date. Secondary outcomes included the proportion of patients retained, with HIV-RNA <400 copies/ml and CD4 > 500 cells/µl at 1, 2 and 3 years post-transfer.

RESULTS

Of 460 adolescents transferred out (53% female), 72% transferred at 10-14 years old, and 79% transferred out of tertiary facilities. Overall, 81% of patients transferred successfully at a median (interquartile range) of 56 (27-134) days following transfer date; 95% reached the transfer site <18 months after transfer out. Among those transferring successfully, the proportion retained decreased from 1 to 3 years post-transfer (90-84%). There was no significant difference between transfer and 1-3 years post-transfer in the proportion of retained adolescents with HIV-RNA <400 copies/ml and CD4 > 500 cells/µl except for HIV-RNA <400 copies/ml at 3 years (86% vs. 75%; p = 0.007). The proportion virologically suppressed and with CD4 > 500 cells/µl was significantly lower at 1 and 2 years post-transfer in those transferring at 15-19 vs. 10-14 years of age. Using laboratory data alone over-estimated time to successful transfer.

CONCLUSIONS

Linking cohort data to health information system data allowed efficient assessment of post-transfer outcomes. Although >80% of adolescents transferred successfully with nearly 85% of them retained for 3 years post-transfer, the decline in the proportion virologically suppressed and poorer outcomes in older adolescents are concerns.​.

'I will choose when to test, where I want to test': investigating young people's preferences for HIV self-testing in Malawi and Zimbabwe

OBJECTIVES

The current study identifies young people's preferences for HIV self-testing (HIVST) delivery, determines the relative strength of preferences and explores underlying behaviors and perceptions to inform youth-friendly services in southern Africa.

DESIGN

A mixed methods design was adopted in Malawi and Zimbabwe and includes focus group discussions, in-depth interviews and discrete choice experiments.

METHODS

The current study was conducted during the formative phase of cluster-randomized trials of oral-fluid HIVST distribution. Young people aged 16-25 years were purposively selected for in-depth interviews (n = 15) in Malawi and 12 focus group discussions (n = 107) across countries. Representative samples of young people in both countries (n = 341) were administered discrete choice experiments on HIVST delivery, with data analyzed to estimate relative preferences. The qualitative results provided additional depth and were triangulated with the quantitative findings.

RESULTS

There was strong concordance across methods and countries based on the three triangulation parameters: product, provider and service characteristics. HIVST was highly accepted by young people, if provided at no or very low cost. Young people expressed mixed views on oral-fluid tests, weighing perceived benefits with accuracy concerns. There was an expressed lack of trust in health providers and preference for lay community distributors. HIVST addressed youth-specific barriers to standard HIV testing, with home-based distribution considered convenient. Issues of autonomy, control, respect and confidentiality emerged as key qualitative themes.

CONCLUSION

HIVST services can be optimized to reach young people if products are provided through home-based distribution and at low prices, with respect for them as autonomous individuals.

Mortality in the First 3 Months on Antiretroviral Therapy Among HIV-Positive Adults in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Meta-analysis

Previous meta-analyses reported mortality estimates of 12-month post-antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation; however, 40%-60% of deaths occur in the first 3 months on ART, a more sensitive measure of averted deaths through early ART initiation. To determine whether early mortality is dropping as treatment thresholds have increased, we reviewed studies of 3 months on ART initiation in low- to middle-income countries. Studies of 3-month mortality from January 2003 to April 2016 were searched in 5 databases. Articles were included that reported 3-month mortality from a low- to middle-income country; nontrial setting and participants were ≥15. We assessed overall mortality and stratified by year using random effects models. Among 58 included studies, although not significant, pooled estimates show a decline in mortality when comparing studies whose enrollment of patients ended before 2010 (7.0%; 95% CI: 6.0 to 8.0) with the studies during or after 2010 (4.0%; 95% CI: 3.0 to 5.0). To continue to reduce early HIV-related mortality at the population level, intensified efforts to increase demand for ART through active testing and facilitated referral should be a priority. Continued financial investments by multinational partners and the implementation of creative interventions to mitigate multidimensional complex barriers of accessing care and treatment for HIV are needed.

Clinical Outcomes of Tenofovir Versus Zidovudine-based Regimens Among People Living with HIV/AIDS: a Two Years Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Tenofovir (TDF) based regimen is one of the first line agents that has been utilized routinely since 2013 in Ethiopia. Unfortunately, there is limited information regarding the Clinical outcomes and associated risk factors in this setting, where patients generally present late, have high rates of TB and other infectious conditions.

METHODS

A two year retrospective cohort study was conducted from February 10/2015 to March 10/2015 at Jimma University Specialized Hospital. A total of 280 records were reviewed by including data from September 3, 2012 to July 31, 2014. Records were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data was collected on socio-demographic, clinical and drug related variables. Data was analyzed using STATA 13.1. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression were used to compare survival experience and identify independent predictors. Propensity score matching analysis was conducted to elucidate the average treatment effects of each regimen over opportunistic infections.

RESULTS

Of 280 patients, 183(65.36%) were females and 93(33.32%) of females belong to Tenofovir group. Through 24 months analysis, TDF based regimen had a protective effect against death and opportunistic infections (OIs), (AHR=0.79, 95% CI [0.24, 2.62]) and (AHR=0.78, 95%CI [0.43, 1.4] respectively. The average treatment effect of TDF/3TC/EFV was (-71/1000, p=0.026), while it was (+114/1000, p=0.049) for AZT/3TC/EFV. However, TDF/3TC/NVP was associated with statistically insignificant morbidity reduction (-74/1000, p=0.377). Those with body mass-index (BMI) <18.5kg/m2 (AHR=3.21, 95%CI [0.93, 11.97]) had higher hazard of death. Absence of baseline prophylaxis (AHR=8.22, 95% CI [1.7, 39.77]), Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis alone (AHR=6.15, 95% CI [1.47, 26.67]) and BMI<18.5kg/m2 (AHR=2.06, 95% CI [1.14, 3.73]) had higher hazards of OIs.

CONCLUSION

The survival benefit of TDF based regimen was similar to AZT based regimen and therefore can be used as an alternative for HIV/AIDS patients in resource limited setups. However, since this study was not dealt with toxicity of the regimens, we recommend to conduct high quality design on this issue.

Outcomes of Nigeria's HIV/AIDS Treatment Program for Patients Initiated on Antiretroviral Treatment between 2004-2012

Background

The Nigerian Antiretroviral therapy (ART) program started in 2004 and now ranks among the largest in Africa. However, nationally representative data on outcomes have not been reported.

Methods

We evaluated retrospective cohort data from a nationally representative sample of adults aged ≥15 years who initiated ART during 2004 to 2012. Data were abstracted from 3,496 patient records at 35 sites selected using probability-proportional-to-size (PPS) sampling. Analyses were weighted and controlled for the complex survey design. The main outcome measures were mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), and retention (the proportion alive and on ART). Potential predictors of attrition were assessed using competing risk regression models.

Results

At ART initiation, 66.4 percent (%) were females, median age was 33 years, median weight 56 kg, median CD4 count 161 cells/mm³, and 47.1% had stage III/IV disease. The percentage of patients retained at 12, 24, 36 and 48 months was 81.2%, 74.4%, 67.2%, and 61.7%, respectively. Over 10,088 person-years of ART, mortality, LTFU, and overall attrition (mortality, LTFU, and treatment stop) rates were 1.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7–1.8), 12.3 (95%CI: 8.9–17.0), and 13.9 (95% CI: 10.4–18.5) per 100 person-years (py) respectively. Highest attrition rates of 55.4/100py were witnessed in the first 3 months on ART. Predictors of LTFU included: lower-than-secondary level education (reference: Tertiary), care in North-East and South-South regions (reference: North-Central), presence of moderate/severe anemia, symptomatic functional status, and baseline weight <45kg. Predictor of mortality was WHO stage higher than stage I. Male sex, severe anemia, and care in a small clinic were associated with both mortality and LTFU.

Conclusion

Moderate/Advanced HIV disease was predictive of attrition; earlier ART initiation could improve program outcomes. Retention interventions targeting men and those with lower levels of education are needed. Further research to understand geographic and clinic size variations with outcome is warranted.

Survival Outcomes in a Pediatric Antiretroviral Treatment Cohort in Southern Malawi

BACKGROUND

Pediatric uptake and outcomes in antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes have lagged behind adult programmes. We describe outcomes from a population-based pediatric ART cohort in rural southern Malawi.

METHODS

Data were analyzed on children who initiated ART from October/2003 -September/2011. Demographics and diagnoses were described and survival analyses conducted to assess the impact of age, presenting features at enrolment, and drug selection.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 2203 children <15 years of age. Age at entry was <1 year for 219 (10%), 1-1.9 years for 343 (16%), 2-4.9 years for 584 (27%), and 5-15 years for 1057 (48%) patients. Initial clinical diagnoses of tuberculosis and wasting were documented for 409 (19%) and 523 (24%) patients, respectively. Median follow-up time was 1.5 years (range 0-8 years), with 3900 patient-years of follow-up. Over the period of observation, 134 patients (6%) died, 1324 (60%) remained in the cohort, 345 (16%) transferred out, and 387 (18%) defaulted. Infants <1 year of age accounted for 19% of deaths, with a 2.7-fold adjusted mortality hazard ratio relative to 5-15 year olds; median time to death was also shorter for infants (60 days) than older children (108 days). Survival analysis demonstrated younger age at ART initiation, more advanced HIV stage, and presence of tuberculosis to each be associated with shorter survival time. Among children <5 years, severe wasting (weight-for-height z-score </ = -3.0) was also associated with reduced survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative incidence of mortality was 5.2%, 7.1% and 7.7% after 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, with disproportionate mortality in infants <1 year of age and those presenting with tuberculosis. These findings reinforce the urgent need for early diagnosis and treatment in this population, but also demonstrate that provision of pediatric care in a rural setting can yield outcomes comparable to more resourced urban settings of poor countries.

A 10-year cohort analysis of routine paediatric ART data in a rural South African setting

South Africa's paediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme is managed using a monitoring and evaluation tool known as TIER.Net. This electronic system has several advantages over paper-based systems, allowing profiling of the paediatric ART programme over time. We analysed anonymized TIER.Net data for HIV-infected children aged <15 years who had initiated ART in a rural district of South Africa between 2005 and 2014. We performed Kaplan–Meier survival analysis to assess outcomes over time. Records of 5461 children were available for analysis; 3593 (66%) children were retained in care. Losses from the programme were higher in children initiated on treatment in more recent years (P < 0·0001) and in children aged ≤1 year at treatment initiation (P < 0·0001). For children aged <3 years, abacavir was associated with a significantly higher rate of loss from the programme compared to stavudine (hazard ratio 1·9, P < 0·001). Viral load was suppressed in 48–52% of the cohort, with no significant change over the years (P = 0·398). Analysis of TIER.Net data over time provides enhanced insights into the performance of the paediatric ART programme and highlights interventions to improve programme performance.

Age Matters: Increased Risk of Inconsistent HIV Care and Viremia Among Adolescents and Young Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy in Nigeria

PURPOSE

Interruptions in HIV care are a major cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly in resource-limited settings. We compared engagement in care and virologic outcomes between HIV-infected adolescents and young adults (AYA) and older adults (OA) one year after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Nigeria.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of AYA (15-24 years) and OA (>24 years) who initiated ART from 2009-2011. We used negative binomial regression to model the risk of inconsistent care and viremia (HIV RNA >1,000 copies/mL) among AYA and OA in the first year on ART. Regular care included monthly ART pickup and 3-monthly clinical visits. Patients with ≤3 months between consecutive visits were considered in care. Those with inconsistent care had >3 months between consecutive visits.

RESULTS

The cohort included 354 AYA and 2,140 OA. More AYA than OA were female (89% vs. 65%, p < .001). Median baseline CD4 was 252/μL in AYA and 204/μL in OA (p = .002). More AYA had inconsistent care than OA (55% vs. 47%, p = .001). Adjusting for sex, baseline CD4, and education, AYA had a greater risk of inconsistent care than OA (Relative Risk [RR]: 1.15, p = .008). Among those in care after one year on ART, viremia was more common in AYA than OA (40% vs. 26% p = .003, RR: 1.53, p = .002).

CONCLUSIONS

In a Nigerian cohort, AYA were at increased risk for inconsistent HIV care. Of patients remaining in care, youth was the only independent predictor of viremia at 1 year. Youth-friendly models of HIV care are needed to optimize health outcomes.

The Effect of Timing of Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy on Loss to Follow-up in HIV-Tuberculosis Coinfected Patients in South Africa: An Open-Label, Randomized, Controlled Trial

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of early integrated, late-integrated, and delayed antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation during tuberculosis (TB) treatment on the incidence rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) and to evaluate the effect of ART initiation on LTFU rates within trial arms in patients coinfected with TB and HIV.

METHODS

A substudy within a 3-armed, open label, randomized, controlled trial. Patients were randomized to initiate ART either early or late during TB treatment or after the TB treatment completion. We reported the incidence and predictors of LTFU from TB treatment initiation during the 24 months of follow-up. LTFU was defined as having missed 4 consecutive monthly visits with the inability to make contact.

RESULTS

Of the 642 patients randomized, a total of 96 (15.0%) were LTFU at a median of 6.0 [interquartile range (IQR), 1.1-11.3] months after TB treatment initiation. Incidence rates of LTFU were 7.5 per 100 person-years (PY) [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.9 to 11], 10.9 per 100 PY (95% CI: 7.6 to 15.1), and 11.0 per 100 PY (95% CI: 7.6 to 15.4) in the early integrated, late-integrated, and delayed treatment arms (P = 0.313). Incidence rate of LTFU before and after ART initiation was 31.7 per 100 PY (95% CI: 11.6 to 69.0) vs. 6.1 per 100 PY (95% CI: 3.7 to 9.4); incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 5.2 (95% CI: 2.1 to 13.0; P < 0.001) in the early integrated arm; 31.9 per 100 PY (95% CI: 20.4 to 47.5) vs. 4.7 per 10 PY (95% CI: 2.4 to 8.2) and IRR was 6.8 (95% CI: 3.4 to 13.6; P < 0.0001) in the late-integrated arm; and 21.9 per 100 PY (95% CI: 14.6 to 31.5) vs. 2.8 per 100 PY (95% CI: 0.9 to 6.6) and IRR was 7.7 (95% CI: 3.0 to 19.9; P < 0.0001) in the sequential arm.

CONCLUSION

LTFU rates were not significantly different between the 3 trials arms. However, ART initiation within each trial arm resulted in a significant reduction in LTFU rates among TB patients.

Risk factors for unstructured treatment interruptions and association with survival in low to middle income countries

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment interruptions lead to poor clinical outcomes with unplanned or unstructured TIs (uTIs) likely to be underreported. This study describes; uTIs, their risk factors and association with survival.

Methods

Analysis of ART programmatic data from 11 countries across Asia and Africa between 2003 and 2013 where an uTI was defined as a ≥90-day patient initiated break from ART calculated from the last day the previous ART prescription would have run out until the date of the next ART prescription. Factors predicting uTI were assessed with a conditional risk-set multiple failure time-to-event model to account for repeated events per subject. Association between uTI and mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards, with a competing risks extension to test for the influence of lost to follow-up (LTFU).

Results

40,632 patients were included from 11 countries across 33 sites (17 Africa, 16 Asia). Median duration of follow-up was 1.61 years (IQR 0.54–3.31 years), 3386 (8.3 %) patients died, and 3453 (8.5 %) were LTFU. There were 14,817 uTIs, with 10,162 (25 %) patients having more than one uTI. In the adjusted model males were at lower risk of uTI (aHR 0.94, p < 0.01, and age 20–59 was protective compared to <20 years (20–39 years aHR 0.87, p < 0.01; 40–59 years aHR 0.86, p < 0.01). Preserved immune function, as measured by higher CD4 cell count, was associated with a reduced rate of uTI compared to CD4 <200 cells/μL (CD4 200–350 cells/μL aHR 0.89, p < 0.01; CD4 >350 cells/μL aHR 0.87, p < 0.01), whereas advanced clinical disease was associated with increased uTI rate (WHO stage 3 aHR 1.10, p < 0.01; WHO stage 4 aHR 1.21, p < 0.01). There was no relationship between uTI and mortality after adjusting for disease status and considering LTFU as a competing risk.

Conclusions

uTIs were frequent in people in ART programs in low-middle income countries and associated with younger age, female gender and advanced HIV. uTI did not predict survival when loss to follow-up was considered a competing risk. Further evaluation of uTI predictors and interventions to reduce their occurrence is warranted.

Antiretroviral Therapy in Children Less Than 24 Months of Age at Pediatric HIV Centers in Tanzania: 12-Month Clinical Outcomes and Survival

BACKGROUND

Without antiretroviral therapy (ART), approximately one-half of HIV-infected infants will die by two years. In 2010, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended that all HIV-infected infants < 24 months be initiated on ART regardless of their clinical/immunologic status. However, there remains little published data detailing cohorts of infants on ART in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study describes baseline characteristics and 12 month outcomes of a cohort of HIV-infected children < 24 months of age at pediatric HIV centers in Mwanza and Mbeya, Tanzania.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective chart review.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

children < 24 months of age, initiated on ART at Baylor Children s Foundation Tanzania clinics, between March-December 2011.

RESULTS

Baseline: Ninety-three children were initiated on ART at a median age of 13.4 months. Sixty-seven percent had severe immunosuppression and 31.5% had severe malnutrition.

OUTCOME

Seventy-three patients were still in care at 12 month follow-up, there were four (4.3%) deaths, five (5.4%) patients transferred, and 11 (11.8%) loss to follow-up. Average CD4% was 32.7 (p < 0.001). Ninety percent of patients were WHO treatment stage I (p < 0.001). Eighty-six percent had normal nutritional status (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our cohort of HIV infected children < 24 months initiated on ART did well clinically at 12 month outcomes despite being severely immunocompromised and malnourished at baseline. Nevirapine based regimens had good 12 month clinical outcomes, regardless of maternal exposure. Loss to follow-up rate was high for our cohort, demonstrating the need to develop strong mechanisms to counteract this.

Survival functions for defining a clinical management Lost To Follow-Up (LTFU) cut-off in Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) program in Zomba, Malawi

BACKGROUND

While, lost to follow-up (LTFU) from antiretroviral therapy (ART) can be considered a catch-all category for patients who miss scheduled visits or medication pick-ups, operational definitions and methods for defining LTFU vary making comparisons across programs challenging. Using weekly cut-offs, we sought to determine the probability that an individual would return to clinic given that they had not yet returned in order to identify the LTFU cut-off that could be used to inform clinical management and tracing procedures.

METHODS

Individuals who initiated ART with Dignitas International supported sites (n = 22) in Zomba, Malawi between January 1 2007-June 30 2010 and were ≥ 1 week late for a follow-up visit were included. Lateness was categorized using weekly cut-offs from ≥1 to ≥26 weeks late. At each weekly cut-off, the proportion of patients who returned for a subsequent follow-up visit were identified. Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) were plotted to determine the probability of returning as a function of lateness. Hazard functions were plotted to demonstrate the proportion of patients who returned each weekly interval relative to those who had yet to return.

RESULTS

In total, n = 4484 patients with n = 7316 follow-up visits were included. The number of included follow-up visits per patient ranged from 1-10 (median: 1). Both the CDF and hazard function demonstrated that after being ≥9 weeks late, the proportion of new patients who returned relative to those who had yet to return decreased substantially.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a LTFU definition useful for clinical management. The simple functions plotted here did not require advanced statistical expertise and were created using Microsoft Excel, making it a particularly practical method for HIV programs in resource-constrained settings.

Are there differences in disease progression and mortality among male and female HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy? A meta-analysis of observational cohorts

Studies examining the sex differences in morbidity and mortality among HIV/AIDS patients have yielded inconsistent results. We conducted a meta-analysis of sex differences in disease progression and mortality among HIV/AIDS patients. Medical literature databases from inception to August 2014 were searched for published observational studies assessing sex differences in immunologic and virologic response, disease progression and mortality among HIV-infected patients. Random effects meta-analyses of 115 eligible studies were conducted to obtain pooled estimates of outcomes and heterogeneity was explored in sub-group analyses. Pooled estimates showed an increased risk of progression to AIDS (relative risk [RR]=1.11,95% CI=1.02-1.21) and all-cause mortality (RR=1.23, 95% CI=1.17-1.29) among males compared to females. All-cause mortality differed by sex only in low and middle income countries. The risk of AIDS-related mortality (RR=1.03, 95% CI=0.82-1.30), immunologic failure (RR=1.19,95% CI: 0.97-1.47), virologic suppression (RR=0.98, 95% CI=0.84-1.14), virologic failure (RR=1.26, 95% CI=0.99-1.61) and the change in CD4 cell count (Weighted mean difference [WMD] = -5.15, 95% CI= -13.57 to 3.28) did not differ by sex. These findings were modified by disease severity, adherence and use of highly active antiretroviral therapy. We conclude that HIV-related disease progression and survival outcomes are poorer in males.

Implementation and Operational Research: Early Tracing of Children Lost to Follow-Up From Antiretroviral Treatment: True Outcomes and Future Risks

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) challenges the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up among pediatric patients. Little is known about children who drop out of care. We aim to analyze risk factors for LTFU among children on ART, find their true outcomes through tracing, and investigate their final outcomes after resuming ART.

A Second Look at the Association between Gender and Mortality on Antiretroviral Therapy

Objective

We assessed the association between gender and mortality on antiretroviral therapy (ART) using identical models with and without sex-specific categories for weight and hemoglobin.

Design

Cohort study of adult patients on ART.

Setting

GHESKIO Clinic in Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

Participants

4,717 ART-naïve adult patients consecutively enrolled on ART at GHESKIO from 2003 to 2008.

Main Outcome Measure

Mortality on ART; multivariable analyses were conducted with and without sex-specific categories for weight and hemoglobin.

Results

In Haiti, male gender was associated with mortality (OR 1.61; 95% CI: 1.30–2.00) in multivariable analyses with hemoglobin and weight included as control variables, but not when sex-specific interactions with hemoglobin and weight were used.

Conclusions

If sex-specific categories are omitted, multivariable analyses indicate a higher risk of mortality for males vs. females of the same weight and hemoglobin. However, because males have higher normal values for weight and hemoglobin, the males in this comparison would generally have poorer health status than the females. This may explain why gender differences in mortality are sometimes observed after controlling for differences in baseline variables when gender-specific interactions with weight and hemoglobin are omitted.

Incidence and predictors of attrition from antiretroviral care among adults in a rural HIV clinic in Coastal Kenya: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Scale up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to substantial declines in HIV related morbidity and mortality. However, attrition from ART care remains a major public health concern and has been identified as one of the key reportable indicators in assessing the success of ART programs. This study describes the incidence and predictors of attrition among adults initiating ART in a rural HIV clinic in Coastal Kenya.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study design was used. Adults (≥15 years) initiated ART between January 2008 and December 2010 were followed up for two years. Attrition was defined as individuals who were either reported dead or lost to follow up (LFU, ≥ 180 days late since the last clinic visit). Kaplan Meier survival probabilities and Weibull baseline hazard regression analyses were used to model the incidence and predictors of time to attrition.

Results

Of the 928 eligible participants, 308 (33.2% [95% CI, 30.2 – 36.3]) underwent attrition at an incident rate of 23.1 (95% CI, 20.6 – 25.8)/100 pyo. Attrition at 6 and 12 months was 18.4% (95% CI, 16.0 – 21.1) and 23.2% (95% CI, 19.9 – 25.3) respectively. Gender (male vs. female, adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI], p-value: 1.5 [1.1 – 2.0], p = 0.014), age (15 – 24 vs. ≥ 45 years, 2.2 [1.3 – 3.7], p = 0.034) and baseline CD4 T-cell count (100 – 350 cells/uL vs. <100 cells/uL, 0.5 [0.3 – 0.7], p = 0.002) were independent predictors of time to attrition.

Conclusions

A third of individuals initiating ART were either reported dead or LFU during two years of care, with more than a half of these occurring within six months of treatment initiation. Practical and sustainable biomedical interventions and psychosocial support systems are warranted to improve ART retention in this setting.

Reducing lost to follow-up in a large clinical trial of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV: the Breastfeeding, Antiretrovirals and Nutrition study experience

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Retaining patients in prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV studies can be challenging in resource-limited settings, where high lost to follow-up rates have been reported. In this article, we describe the effectiveness of methods used to encourage retention in the Breastfeeding, Antiretrovirals, and Nutrition study and analyze factors associated with lost to follow-up in the study.

METHODS

The Breastfeeding, Antiretrovirals, and Nutrition clinical trial was designed to evaluate the efficacy of three different mother-to-child HIV transmission prevention strategies. Lower than expected participant retention prompted enhanced efforts to reduce lost to follow-up during the conduct of the trial. Following study completion, we employed regression modeling to determine predictors of perfect attendance and variables associated with being lost to follow-up.

RESULTS

During the study, intensive tracing efforts were initiated after the first 1686 mother-infant pairs had been enrolled, and 327 pairs were missing. Of these pairs, 60 were located and had complete data obtained. Among the 683 participants enrolling after initiation of intensive tracing efforts, the lost to follow-up rate was 3.4%. At study's end, 290 (12.2%) of the 2369 mother-infant pairs were lost to follow-up. Among successfully traced missing pairs, relocation was common and three were deceased. Log-binomial regression modeling revealed higher maternal hemoglobin and older maternal age to be significant predictors of perfect attendance. These factors and the presence of food insecurity were also significantly associated with lower rates of lost to follow-up.

CONCLUSION

In this large HIV prevention trial, intensive tracing efforts centered on reaching study participants at their homes succeeded in finding a substantial proportion of lost to follow-up participants and were very effective in preventing further lost to follow-up during the remainder of the trial. The association between food insecurity and lower rates of lost to follow-up is likely related to the study's provision of nutritional support, including a family maize supplement, which may have contributed to patient retention.

Improved retention of patients starting antiretroviral treatment in Karonga District, northern Malawi, 2005-2012

BACKGROUND

Patient retention in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs remains a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined whether and why retention in ART care has changed with increasing access.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study combining individual data from ART registers and interview data, enabling us to link patients across different ART clinics in Karonga District, Malawi. We recorded information on all adults (≥15 years) starting ART between July 2005 and August 2012, including those initiating due to pregnancy and breastfeeding (Option B+). Retention in care was defined as being alive and receiving ART at the end of study. Predictors of attrition were assessed using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

The number of clinics providing ART increased from 1 in 2005 to 16 in 2012. Six-month retention increased from 73% [95% confidence interval (CI): 71 to 76] to 93% (95% CI: 92 to 94) when comparing the 2005-2006 and 2011-2012 cohorts, and 12-month retention increased from 70% (95% CI: 67 to 73) to 92% (95% CI: 90 to 93). Over the study period, the proportion of patients starting ART at World Health Organization stage 4 declined from 62% to 10%. Being a man, younger than 35 years, having a more advanced World Health Organization stage and being part of an earlier cohort were all independently associated with attrition. Women starting ART for Option B+ experienced higher attrition than women of childbearing age starting for other reasons.

CONCLUSIONS

In this area, retention in care has increased dramatically. Improved health in patients starting ART and decentralization of ART care to peripheral health centers seem to be the major drivers for this change.

Loss to follow-up in a cohort of HIV-infected patients in a regional referral outpatient clinic in Brazil

One of the main aspects related to non-adherence to combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) for patients infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) refers to the abandonment of outpatient care. This study was aimed to estimate the loss to follow-up in outpatient HIV care at a Regional Referral Clinic (SAE) for HIV/AIDS in the city of Juiz de Fora, Brazil, and to identify associated factors and predictors. This is a prospective cohort of patients older than 18 years, under cART and regular outpatient care. The study included patients who attended medical visits during July-August 2011. Those who did not return to the clinic for new medical appointments within 90 days after the sixth month of follow up were considered lost to follow-up in outpatient care. Variables with P value ≤0.25 in the univariate analysis were included in a logistic regression model, adopting a significance level of 0.05. Among the 250 patients included in the study, 44 (17.6 %) were lost to follow up in outpatient care. Among these, 38 (86.4 %) were located in the cART delivery database system (SICLOM). Younger patients (≤43 versus >43 years) (OR 2.30 CI 1.06-5.00, P = 0.04), and patients attended by physician "E", when compared with physicians "A", "B", "C" or "D" (OR 5.90 CI 2.64-13.18, P = 0.00) were more likely to be lost to follow-up. Patients admitted in the service for 7 years or more were also more likely to be to lost to follow-up (OR 2.27 CI 1.2-4.4, P = 0.01), although this association did not remain statistically significant in the multivariate analysis. Although the purpose of the study, to identify individual factors associated to loss to follow-up, positives associations with a specific physician and with patients admitted in the service for 7 years or more suggest organizational factors. Although the majority of patients lost to follow-up in outpatient care were detected by SICLOM, a detectable viral load in most of these patients suggest a quality of outpatient HIV care proved ineffective, despite the availability of cART. We conclude on the need for further studies to investigate structural factors associated to loss to follow-up when enhanced retention strategies should be implemented in order to maintain an effective outpatient HIV care.

Understanding reasons for treatment interruption amongst patients on antiretroviral therapy--a qualitative study at the Lighthouse Clinic, Lilongwe, Malawi

Background

In recent years, scaling up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings moved impressively towards universal access. Along with these achievements, public health HIV programs are facing a number of challenges including the support of patients on lifelong therapy and the prevention of temporary/permanent loss of patients in care. Understanding reasons for treatment interruption (TI) can inform strategies for improving drug adherence and retention in care.

Objective

To evaluate key characteristics of patients resuming ART after TI at the Lighthouse Clinic in Lilongwe, Malawi, and to identify their reasons for interrupting ART.

Design

This study uses a mixed methods design to evaluate patients resuming ART after TI. We analysed an assessment form for patients with TI using pre-defined categories and a comments field to identify frequently stated reasons for TI. Additionally, we conducted 26 in-depth interviews to deepen our understanding of common reasons for TI. In-depth interviews also included the patients’ knowledge about ART and presence of social support systems. Qualitative data analysis was based on a thematic framework approach.

Results

A total of 347 patients (58.2% female, average age 35.1±11.3 years) with TI were identified. Despite the presence of social support and sufficient knowledge of possible consequences of TI, all patients experienced situations that resulted in TI. Analysis of in-depth interviews led to new and distinct categories for TI. The most common reason for TI was travel (54.5%, n=80/147), which further differentiated into work- or family-related travel. Patients also stated transport costs and health-care-provider-related reasons, which included perceived/enacted discrimination by health care workers. Other drivers of TI were treatment fatigue/forgetfulness, the patients’ health status, adverse drug effects, pregnancy/delivery, religious belief or perceived/enacted stigma.

Conclusions

To adequately address patients’ needs on a lifelong therapy, adherence-counselling sessions require provision of problem-solving strategies for common barriers to continuous care.

Retention and risk factors for attrition among adults in antiretroviral treatment programmes in Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia

OBJECTIVES

We assessed retention and predictors of attrition (recorded death or loss to follow-up) in antiretroviral treatment (ART) clinics in Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adults (≥18 years) starting ART during 2003-2010. We purposefully selected six health facilities per country and randomly selected 250 patients from each facility. Patients who visited clinics at least once during the 90 days before data abstraction were defined as retained. Data on individual and programme level risk factors for attrition were obtained through chart review and clinic manager interviews. Kaplan-Meier curves for retention across sites were created. Predictors of attrition were assessed using a multivariable Cox-proportional hazards model, adjusted for site-level clustering.

RESULTS

From 17 facilities, 4147 patients were included. Retention ranged from 52.0% to 96.2% at 1 year to 25.8%-90.4% at 4 years. Multivariable analysis of ART initiation characteristics found the following independent risk factors for attrition: younger age [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.30 (1.14-1.47)], WHO stage 4 ([aHR (95% CI): 1.56 (1.29-1.88)], >10% bodyweight loss [aHR (95%CI) = 1.17 (1.00-1.38)], poor functional status [ambulatory aHR (95%CI) = 1.29 (1.09-1.54); bedridden aHR1.54 (1.15-2.07)], and increasing years of clinic operation prior to ART initiation in government facilities [aHR (95%CI) = 1.17 (1.10-1.23)]. Patients with higher CD4 cell count were less likely to experience attrition [aHR (95%CI) = 0.88 (0.78-1.00)] for every log (tenfold) increase. Sites offering community ART dispensing [aHR (95%CI) = 0.55 (0.30-1.01) for women; 0.40 (0.21-0.75) for men] had significantly less attrition.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient retention to an individual programme worsened over time especially among males, younger persons and those with poor clinical indicators. Community ART drug dispensing programmes could improve retention.

The association between quality of HIV care, loss to follow-up and mortality in pediatric and adolescent patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Nigeria

Access to pediatric HIV treatment in resource-limited settings has risen significantly. However, little is known about the quality of care that pediatric or adolescent patients receive. The objective of this study is to explore quality of HIV care and treatment in Nigeria and to determine the association between quality of care, loss-to-follow-up and mortality. A retrospective cohort study was conducted including patients ≤18 years of age who initiated ART between November 2002 and December 2011 at 23 sites across 10 states. 1,516 patients were included. A quality score comprised of 6 process indicators was calculated for each patient. More than half of patients (55.5%) were found to have a high quality score, using the median score as the cut-off. Most patients were screened for tuberculosis at entry into care (81.3%), had adherence measurement and counseling at their last visit (88.7% and 89.7% respectively), and were prescribed co-trimoxazole at some point during enrollment in care (98.8%). Thirty-seven percent received a CD4 count in the six months prior to chart review. Mortality within 90 days of ART initiation was 1.9%. A total of 4.2% of patients died during the period of follow-up (mean: 27 months) with 19.0% lost to follow-up. In multivariate regression analyses, weight for age z-score (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR): 0.90; 95% CI: 0.85, 0.95) and high quality indicator score (compared a low score, AHR: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.26, 0.73) had a protective effect on mortality. Patients with a high quality score were less likely to be lost to follow-up (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 0.42; 95% CI: 0.32, 0.56), compared to those with low score. These findings indicate that providing high quality care to children and adolescents living with HIV is important to improve outcomes, including lowering loss to follow-up and decreasing mortality in this age group.

Follow-Up Visit Patterns in an Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) programme in Zomba, Malawi

Background

Identifying follow-up (FU) visit patterns, and exploring which factors influence them are likely to be useful in determining which patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) may become Lost to Follow-Up (LTFU). Using an operation and implementation research approach, we sought 1) to describe the timing of FU visits amongst patients who have been on ART for shorter and longer periods of time; and 2) to determine the median time to late visits, and 3) to identify specific factors that may be associated with these patterns in Zomba, Malawi.

Methods and Findings

Using routinely collected programme monitoring data from Zomba District, we performed descriptive analyses on all ART visits among patients who initiated ART between Jan. 1, 2007–June 30, 2010. Based on an expected FU date, each FU visit was classified as early (≥4 day before an expected FU date), on time (3 days before an expected FU date/up to 6 days after an expected FU date), or late (≥7 days after an expected FU date). In total, 7,815 patients with 76417 FU visits were included. Ninety-two percent of patients had ≥2 FU visits. At the majority of visits, patients were either on time or late. The median time to a first late visit among those with 2 or more visits was 216 days (IQR: 128–359). Various patient- and visit-level factors differed significantly across Early, On Time, and Late visit groups including ART adherence and frequency of, and type of side effects.

Discussion

The majority of patients do not demonstrate consistent FU visit patterns. Individuals were generally on ART for at least 6 months before experiencing their first late visit. Our findings have implications for the development of effective interventions that meet patient needs when they present early and can reduce patient losses to follow-up when they are late. In particular, time-varying visit characteristics need further research.

Tracing of patients lost to follow-up and HIV transmission: mathematical modeling study based on 2 large ART programs in Malawi

OBJECTIVE

Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) back into care.

DESIGN

Mathematical model.

METHODS

Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy, based on the data from 2 clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. We calculated cohort viral load (sum of individual mean viral loads each year) and used a mathematical relationship between viral load and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. We simulated 4 scenarios: "no LTFU" (all patients stay in care), "no tracing" (patients LTFU are not traced), "immediate tracing" (after missed clinic appointment), and "delayed tracing" (after 6 months).

RESULTS

About 440 of 1000 patients were LTFU over 5 years. Cohort viral loads (million copies/mL per 1000 patients) were 3.7 [95% prediction interval (PrI), 2.9-4.9] for no LTFU, 8.6 (95% PrI, 7.3-10.0) for no tracing, 7.7 (95% PrI, 6.2-9.1) for immediate, and 8.0 (95% PrI, 6.7-9.5) for delayed tracing. Comparing no LTFU with no tracing, the number of new infections increased from 33 (95% PrI, 29-38) to 54 (95% PrI, 47-60) per 1000 patients. Immediate tracing prevented 3.6 (95% PrI, -3.3 to 12.8) and delayed tracing 2.5 (95% PrI, -5.8 to 11.1) new infections per 1000. Immediate tracing was more efficient than delayed tracing: to 116 and 142 tracing efforts, respectively, were needed prevent 1 new infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Tracing of patients LTFU enhances the preventive effect of antiretroviral therapy, but the number of transmissions prevented is small.

Incidence of World Health Organization stage 3 and 4 events, tuberculosis and mortality in untreated, HIV-infected children enrolling in care before 1 year of age: an IeDEA (International Epidemiologic Databases To Evaluate AIDS) East Africa regional analysis

BACKGROUND

Few studies have reported CD4%- and age-stratified rates of World Health Organization Stage 3 (WHO3) events, World Health Organization Stage 4 (WHO4) events, tuberculosis (TB) and mortality in HIV-infected infants before initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

METHODS

HIV-infected children enrolled before 1 year of age in the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS East Africa region (October 1, 2002, to November, 2008) were included. We estimated incidence rates of earliest clinical event (WHO3, WHO4 and TB), before antiretroviral therapy initiation per local guidelines, stratified by current age (< or ≥6 months) and current CD4% (<15%, 15-24%, ≥25%). CD4%-stratified mortality rates were estimated separately for children who did not experience a clinical event ("background" mortality) and for children who experienced an event, including "acute" mortality (≤30 days post event) and "later" mortality (>30 days post event).

RESULTS

Among 847 children (median enrollment age: 4.8 months; median pre-antiretroviral therapy follow up: 10.8 months; 603 (71%) with ≥1 CD4% recorded), event rates were comparable for those aged <6 and ≥6 months. Current CD4% was associated with risk of WHO4 events for children <6 months of age and with all evaluated events for children ≥6 months old (P < 0.05). "Background" mortality was 3.7-8.4/100 person-years (PY). "Acute" mortality (≤30 days post event) was 33.8/100 PY (after TB) and 41.1/100 PY (after WHO3 or WHO4). "Later" mortality (>30 days post event) ranged by CD4% from 4.7 to 29.1/100 PY.

CONCLUSIONS

In treatment-naïve, HIV-infected infants, WHO3, WHO4 and TB events were common before and after 6 months of age and led to substantial increases in mortality. Early infant HIV diagnosis and treatment are critically important, regardless of CD4%.

A reduction in adult blood stream infection and case fatality at a large African hospital following antiretroviral therapy roll-out

Introduction

Blood-stream infection (BSI) is one of the principle determinants of the morbidity and mortality associated with advanced HIV infection, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the last 10 years, there has been rapid roll-out of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and cotrimoxazole prophylactic therapy (CPT) in many high HIV prevalence African countries.

Methods

A prospective cohort of adults with suspected BSI presenting to Queen's Hospital, Malawi was recruited between 2009 and 2010 to describe causes of and outcomes from BSI. Comparison was made with a cohort pre-dating ART roll-out to investigate whether and how ART and CPT have affected BSI. Malawian census and Ministry of Health ART data were used to estimate minimum incidence of BSI in Blantyre district.

Results

2,007 patients were recruited, 90% were HIV infected. Since 1997/8, culture-confirmed BSI has fallen from 16% of suspected cases to 10% (p<0.001) and case fatality rate from confirmed BSI has fallen from 40% to 14% (p<0.001). Minimum incidence of BSI was estimated at 0.03/1000 years in HIV uninfected vs. 2.16/1000 years in HIV infected adults. Compared to HIV seronegative patients, the estimated incidence rate-ratio for BSI was 80 (95% CI:46–139) in HIV-infected/untreated adults, 568 (95% CI:302–1069) during the first 3 months of ART and 30 (95% CI:16–59) after 3 months of ART.

Conclusions

Following ART roll-out, the incidence of BSI has fallen and clinical outcomes have improved markedly. Nonetheless, BSI incidence remains high in the first 3 months of ART despite CPT. Further interventions to reduce BSI-associated mortality in the first 3 months of ART require urgent evaluation.

High attrition before and after ART initiation among youth (15-24 years of age) enrolled in HIV care

OBJECTIVES

To compare pre and post-ART attrition between youth (15-24 years) and other patients in HIV care, and to investigate factors associated with attrition among youth.

DESIGN

Cohort study utilizing routinely collected patient-level data from 160 HIV clinics in Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Rwanda.

METHODS

Patients at least 10 years of age enrolling in HIV care between 01/05 and 09/10 were included. Attrition (loss to follow-up or death 1 year after enrollment or ART initiation) was compared between youth and other patients using multivariate competing risk (pre-ART) and traditional (post-ART) Cox proportional hazards methods accounting for within-clinic correlation. Among youth, patient-level and clinic-level factors associated with attrition were similarly assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 312,335 patients at least 10 years of age enrolled in HIV care; 147,936 (47%) initiated ART, 17% enrolling in care and 10% initiating ART were youth. Attrition before and after ART initiation was substantially higher among youth compared with other age groups. Among youth, nonpregnant women experienced lower pre-ART attrition than men [sub-division hazard ratio = 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86-0.94], while both pregnant [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.74-0.97] and nonpregnant (AHR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.73-0.86) female youth experienced lower post-ART attrition than men. Youth attending clinics providing sexual and reproductive health services including condoms (AHR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.32-0.70) and clinics offering adolescent support groups (AHR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.52-1.0) experienced significantly lower attrition after ART initiation.

CONCLUSION

Youth experienced substantially higher attrition before and after ART initiation compared with younger adolescents and older adults. Adolescent-friendly services were associated with reduced attrition among youth, particularly after ART initiation.

Comparison of methods for correction of mortality estimates for loss to follow-up after ART initiation: a case of the Infectious Diseases Institute, Uganda

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, a large proportion of HIV positive patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are lost to follow-up, some of whom are dead. The objective of this study was to validate methods used to correct mortality estimates for loss-to-follow-up using a cohort with complete death ascertainment.

METHODS

Routinely collected data from HIV patients initiating first line antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) (Routine Cohort) was used. Three methods to estimate mortality after initiation were: 1) standard Kaplan-Meier estimation (uncorrected method) that uses passively observed data; 2) double-sampling methods by Frangakis and Rubin (F&R) where deaths obtained from patient tracing studies are given a higher weight than those passively ascertained; 3) Nomogram proposed by Egger et al. Corrected mortality estimates in the Routine Cohort, were compared with the estimates from the IDI research observational cohort (Research Cohort), which was used as the "gold-standard".

RESULTS

We included 5,633 patients from the Routine Cohort and 559 from the Research Cohort. Uncorrected mortality estimates (95% confidence interval [1]) in the Routine Cohort at 1, 2 and 3 years were 5.5% (4.9%-6.3%), 6.6% (5.9%-7.5%) and 7.4% (6.5%-8.5%), respectively. The F&R corrected estimates at 1, 2 and 3 years were 11.2% (5.8%-21.2%), 15.8% (9.9%-24.8%) and 18.5% (12.3% -27.2%) respectively. The estimates obtained from the Research Cohort were 15.6% (12.8%-18.9%), 17.5% (14.6%-21.0%) and 19.0% (15.3%-21.9%) at 1, 2 and 3 years respectively. Using the nomogram method in the Routine Cohort, the corrected programme-level mortality estimate in year 1 was 11.9% (8.0%-15.7%).

CONCLUSION

Mortality adjustments provided by the F&R and nomogram methods are adequate and should be employed to correct mortality for loss-to-follow-up in large HIV care centres in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Outcomes of the Botswana national HIV/AIDS treatment programme from 2002 to 2010: a longitudinal analysis

BACKGROUND

Short-term mortality rates among patients with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa are higher than those recorded in high-income countries, but systematic long-term comparisons have not been made because of the scarcity of available data. We analysed the effect of the implementation of Botswana's national ART programme, known as Masa, from 2002 to 2010.

METHODS

The Masa programme started on Jan 21, 2002. Patients who were eligible for ART according to national guidelines had their data collected prospectively through a clinical information system developed by the Botswana Ministry of Health. A dataset of all available electronic records for adults (≥18 years) who had enrolled by April 30, 2010, was extracted and sent to the study team. All data were anonymised before analysis. The primary outcome was mortality. To assess the effect of loss to follow-up, we did a series of sensitivity analyses assuming varying proportions of the population lost to follow-up to be dead.

FINDINGS

We analysed the records of 126,263 patients, of whom 102,713 had documented initiation of ART. Median follow-up time was 35 months (IQR 14-56), with a median of eight follow-up visits (4-14). 15,270 patients were deemed lost to follow-up by the end of the study. 63% (78,866) of the study population were women; median age at baseline was 34 years for women (IQR 29-41) and 38 years for men (33-45). 10,230 (8%) deaths were documented during the 9 years of the study. Mortality was highest during the first 3 months after treatment initiation at 12·8 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 12·4-13·2), but decreased to 1·16 deaths per 100 person-years (1·12-1·2) in the second year of treatment, and to 0·15 deaths per 100 person-years (0·09-0·25) over the next 7 years of follow-up. In each calendar year after the start of the Masa programme in 2002, average CD4 cell counts at enrolment increased (from 101 cells/μL [IQR 44-156] in 2002, to 191 cells/μL [115-239] in 2010). In each year, the proportion of the total enrolled population who died in that year decreased, from 63% (88 of 140) in 2002, to 0·8% (13 of 1599) in 2010. A sensitivity analysis assuming that 60% of the population lost to follow-up had died gave 3000 additional deaths, increasing overall mortality from 8% to 11-13%.

INTERPRETATION

The Botswana national HIV/AIDS treatment programme reduced mortality among adults with HIV to levels much the same as in other low-income or middle-income countries.

FUNDING

The African Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Partnerships.

Male, mobile, and moneyed: loss to follow-up vs. transfer of care in an urban African antiretroviral treatment clinic

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to analyze characteristics, reasons for transferring, and reasons for discontinuing care among patients defined as lost to follow-up (LTFU) from an antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinic in Nairobi, Kenya.

DESIGN

The study used a prospective cohort of patients who participated in a randomized, controlled ART adherence trial between 2006 and 2008.

METHODS

Participants were followed from pre-ART clinic enrollment to 18 months after ART initiation, and were defined as LTFU if they failed to return to clinic 4 weeks after their last scheduled visit. Reasons for loss were captured through phone call or home visit. Characteristics of LTFU who transferred care and LTFU who did not transfer were compared to those who remained in clinic using log-binomial regression to estimate risk ratios.

RESULTS

Of 393 enrolled participants, total attrition was 83 (21%), of whom 75 (90%) were successfully traced. Thirty-seven (49%) were alive at tracing and 22 (59%) of these reported having transferred their antiretroviral care. In the final model, transfers were more likely to have salaried employment [Risk Ratio (RR), 2.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-6.1; p=0.020)] and pay a higher monthly rent (RR, 5.8; 95% CI, 1.3-25.0; p=0.018) compared to those retained in clinic. LTFU who did not transfer care were three times as likely to be men (RR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.1-8.1; p=0.028) and nearly 4 times as likely to have a primary education or less (RR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.3-10.6; p=0.013). Overall, the most common reason for LTFU was moving residence, predominantly due to job loss or change in employment.

CONCLUSION

A broad definition of LTFU may include those who have transferred their antiretroviral care and thereby overestimate negative effects on ART continuation. Interventions targeting men and considering mobility due to employment may improve retention in urban African ART clinics.

CLINICAL TRIALS

The study's ClinicalTrials.gov identifier is NCT00273780.