Where are the horses? With the sheep or cows? Uncertain host location, vector-feeding preferences and the risk of African horse sickness transmission in Great Britain

Using the basic reproduction ratio to quantify transmission and identify data gaps for epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus

Epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) is an arbovirus transmitted by Culicoides biting midges that has recently emerged in Europe. Here, the basic reproduction ratio (R 0) was used to quantify the transmission of EHDV and its dependence on temperature for cattle and deer. Using data from the published literature the parameters needed to calculate R 0 were estimated with Bayesian methods to incorporate uncertainty in the calculations. The Sobol method of sensitivity analysis was used to determine the parameters having the greatest influence on R 0 and, hence, to identify important data gaps. Depending on the strain, the maximum R 0 for EHDV varied from 0.7 to 2.5 in cattle and 1.3 to 4.3 in deer. The maximum R 0 occurred at temperatures between 22 and 25°C, while the lowest temperature at which R 0 exceeded one was between 16 and 20°C. The sensitivity analysis identified the threshold temperature for virus replication, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector- to- host ratio as the most important parameters influencing R 0. Furthermore, there are only limited data on EHDV in European deer species and on transmission in wildlife and at the livestock/wildlife interface. These data gaps should be the focus of future research.

Abundance and Diversity of Culicoides Species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Different Forest Landscapes of Karnataka, India: Implications for Culicoides Borne Diseases

Culicoides are important vectors for livestock and human pathogens. Wild animals act as reservoirs for important orbiviruses such as bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses. There are only limited studies on the distribution of Culicoides species in forest habitats. In this study, we collected Culicoides from different wildlife sanctuaries and national parks of Karnataka. We collected and morphologically identified 8597 Culicoides. We found 18 species of Culicoides in different sites, with C. oxystoma and C. imicola being the predominant species across the sites. The sequence alignment and phylogenetic analysis of the Cox1 gene of Cuilicoides species revealed a huge level of sequence similarity and their wide distribution around the world. Most of the isolates from our study were closely related to Chinese isolates. The abundance of the species was analyzed using the Bayesian ordination method. We used a hierarchical joint distribution negative binomial regression model to detect the correlation between species owing to environmental covariates and residual correlation. The presence of potential vectors for important livestock pathogens in wild habitats in our study warrants further research on the detection of pathogens in Culicoides collected from forest habitats and adopt surveillance in wild animal habitats to prevent disease spread from wild animals to livestock and vice versa.

Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) Abundance Is Influenced by Livestock Host Species and Distance to Hosts at the Micro Landscape Scale

The vector/host ratio and host preference are important parameters for the modelling of vector-borne livestock diseases. It can be anticipated that Culicoides abundance is not homogeneously distributed in the landscape. We investigated the influence of host species (dairy cow, sheep, and a light-trap (LT) as a surrogate host) and distance of measurement to hosts on Culicoides abundance using a randomized block-design with 12 measuring days and seven 3-min aerial sweep-netting sessions per whole hour at three distances to the host (0, 10, and 25 m), from five hours before to and including one hour after sunset. Dairy cows were found to be a far stronger attractor of Culicoides midges than sheep, while both hosts were far stronger attractors of midges than the LT. Culicoides abundance declined significantly with increasing distance from the livestock hosts; this phenomenon was much stronger for dairy cows than for ewes. In contrast, Culicoides abundance increased with increasing distance from the LT, pin-pointing the apparent shortcomings of the LT as a surrogate host to lure midges. Our data indicate that livestock host species and the distance from these hosts have a profound effect on Culicoides abundance in the landscape.

Spatial aggregation choice in the era of digital and administrative surveillance data

Traditional disease surveillance is increasingly being complemented by data from non-traditional sources like medical claims, electronic health records, and participatory syndromic data platforms. As non-traditional data are often collected at the individual-level and are convenience samples from a population, choices must be made on the aggregation of these data for epidemiological inference. Our study seeks to understand the influence of spatial aggregation choice on our understanding of disease spread with a case study of influenza-like illness in the United States. Using U.S. medical claims data from 2002 to 2009, we examined the epidemic source location, onset and peak season timing, and epidemic duration of influenza seasons for data aggregated to the county and state scales. We also compared spatial autocorrelation and tested the relative magnitude of spatial aggregation differences between onset and peak measures of disease burden. We found discrepancies in the inferred epidemic source locations and estimated influenza season onsets and peaks when comparing county and state-level data. Spatial autocorrelation was detected across more expansive geographic ranges during the peak season as compared to the early flu season, and there were greater spatial aggregation differences in early season measures as well. Epidemiological inferences are more sensitive to spatial scale early on during U.S. influenza seasons, when there is greater heterogeneity in timing, intensity, and geographic spread of the epidemics. Users of non-traditional disease surveillance should carefully consider how to extract accurate disease signals from finer-scaled data for early use in disease outbreaks.

A Qualitative Risk Assessment for Bluetongue Disease and African Horse Sickness: The Risk of Entry and Exposure at a UK Zoo

Bluetongue virus (BTV) and African horse sickness virus (AHSV) cause economically important diseases that are currently exotic to the United Kingdom (UK), but have significant potential for introduction and onward transmission. Given the susceptibility of animals kept in zoo collections to vector-borne diseases, a qualitative risk assessment for the introduction of BTV and AHSV to ZSL London Zoo was performed. Risk pathways for each virus were identified and assessed using published literature, animal import data and outputs from epidemiological models. Direct imports of infected animals, as well as wind-borne infected Culicoides, were considered as routes of incursion. The proximity of ongoing disease events in mainland Europe and proven capability of transmission to the UK places ZSL London Zoo at higher risk of BTV release and exposure (estimated as low to medium) than AHSV (estimated as very low to low). The recent long-range expansion of AHSV into Thailand from southern Africa highlights the need for vector competence studies of Palearctic Culicoides for AHSV to assess the risk of transmission in this region.

Assessing the introduction risk of vector-borne animal diseases for the Netherlands using MINTRISK: A Model for INTegrated RISK assessment

To evaluate and compare the risk of emerging vector-borne diseases (VBDs), a Model for INTegrated RISK assessment, MINTRISK, was developed to assess the introduction risk of VBDs for new regions in an objective, transparent and repeatable manner. MINTRISK is a web-based calculation tool, that provides semi-quantitative risk scores that can be used for prioritization purposes. Input into MINTRISK is entered by answering questions regarding entry, transmission, establishment, spread, persistence and impact of a selected VBD. Answers can be chosen from qualitative answer categories with accompanying quantitative explanation to ensure consistent answering. The quantitative information is subsequently used as input for the model calculations to estimate the risk for each individual step in the model and for the summarizing output values (rate of introduction; epidemic size; overall risk). The risk assessor can indicate his uncertainty on each answer, and this is accounted for by Monte Carlo simulation. MINTRISK was used to assess the risk of four VBDs (African horse sickness, epizootic haemorrhagic disease, Rift Valley fever, and West Nile fever) for the Netherlands with the aim to prioritise these diseases for preparedness. Results indicated that the overall risk estimate was very high for all evaluated diseases but epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Uncertainty intervals were, however, wide limiting the options for ranking of the diseases. Risk profiles of the VBDs differed. Whereas all diseases were estimated to have a very high economic impact once introduced, the estimated introduction rates differed from low for Rift Valley fever and epizootic haemorrhagic disease to moderate for African horse sickness and very high for West Nile fever. Entry of infected mosquitoes on board of aircraft was deemed the most likely route of introduction for West Nile fever into the Netherlands, followed by entry of infected migratory birds.

Human-Mosquito Contact: A Missing Link in Our Understanding of Mosquito-Borne Disease Transmission Dynamics

Despite the critical role that contact between hosts and vectors, through vector bites, plays in driving vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission, transmission risk is primarily studied through the lens of vector density and overlooks host-vector contact dynamics. This review article synthesizes current knowledge of host-vector contact with an emphasis on mosquito bites. It provides a framework including biological and mathematical definitions of host-mosquito contact rate, blood-feeding rate, and per capita biting rates. We describe how contact rates vary and how this variation is influenced by mosquito and vertebrate factors. Our framework challenges a classic assumption that mosquitoes bite at a fixed rate determined by the duration of their gonotrophic cycle. We explore alternative ecological assumptions based on the functional response, blood index, forage ratio, and ideal free distribution within a mechanistic host-vector contact model. We highlight that host-vector contact is a critical parameter that integrates many factors driving disease transmission. A renewed focus on contact dynamics between hosts and vectors will contribute new insights into the mechanisms behind VBD spread and emergence that are sorely lacking. Given the framework for including contact rates as an explicit component of mathematical models of VBD, as well as different methods to study contact rates empirically to move the field forward, researchers should explicitly test contact rate models with empirical studies. Such integrative studies promise to enhance understanding of extrinsic and intrinsic factors affecting host-vector contact rates and thus are critical to understand both the mechanisms driving VBD emergence and guiding their prevention and control.

Is the French SIRE equine information system a good basis for surveillance and epidemiological research? Quality assessment using two surveys

Accurate demographic knowledge of the equine population is needed to assess and model equine health events. France is one of the few European countries with an operational centralized database (SIRE) recording individual data on all declared equines living in France and on their owners and keepers. Our study aimed to assess SIRE database quality concerning the updating of information by equine owners and keepers with a view to its improvement and use in surveillance and research. Two online surveys were conducted with the participation of 6244 registered keepers and 13,869 owners. Results showed some inconsistencies between SIRE records and survey responses. The inconsistency rate for equines whose castration and death were not registered in the database was 28.7% and 5.9% respectively. Concerning owners, 11% of respondents did not own the reference equine selected considered by the survey, 33% had changed address without updating it in the SIRE. Concerning premises hosting equines, the keeper survey's inconsistency rate was 7.3%, of which 57 respondents had closed and 32 had opened premises without reporting it. Comparatively, the owner survey's inconsistency rate was 40.7% including respondents who owned and hosted an equine without reporting these equine premises, and owners who did not keep any equines on their premises. In conclusion, the SIRE database proved to be a valuable and reliable source for epidemiological research as long as some bias is taken into account. On the contrary, its use in surveillance is currently limited due some shortcomings in updating and/or reporting by owners and keepers.

A Tool for Prioritizing Livestock Disease Threats to Scotland

There are a number of disease threats to the livestock of Scotland that are not presently believed to be circulating in the UK. Here, we present the development of a tool for prioritizing resources for livestock disease threats to Scotland by combining a semi-quantitative model of the chance of introduction of different diseases with a semi-quantitative model of disease impact. Eighteen key diseases were identified and then input into a model framework to produce a semi-quantitative estimate of disease priorities. We estimate this through a model of the potential impacts of the infectious diseases in Scotland that is interpreted alongside a pre-existing generic risk assessment model of the risks of incursion of the diseases. The impact estimates are based on key metrics which influence the practical impact of disease. Metrics included are the rate of spread, the disease mitigation factors, impacts on animal welfare and production, the human health risks and the impacts on wider society. These quantities were adjusted for the size of the Scottish livestock population and were weighted using published scores. Of the 18 livestock diseases included, the model identifies highly pathogenic avian influenza, foot and mouth disease in cattle and bluetongue virus in sheep as having the greatest priority in terms of the combination of chance of introduction and disease impact. Disregarding the weighting for livestock populations and comparing equally between industry sectors, the results demonstrate that Newcastle disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza generally have the greatest potential impact. This model provides valuable information for the veterinary and livestock industries in prioritizing resources in the face of many disease threats. The system can easily be adjusted as disease situations evolve.

Culicoides species composition and molecular identification of host blood meals at two zoos in the UK

BACKGROUND

Culicoides biting midges are biological vectors of arboviruses including bluetongue virus (BTV), Schmallenberg virus (SBV) and African horse sickness virus (AHSV). Zoos are home to a wide range of 'at risk' exotic and native species of animals. These animals have a high value both in monetary terms, conservation significance and breeding potential. To understand the risk these viruses pose to zoo animals, it is necessary to characterise the Culicoides fauna at zoos and determine which potential vector species are feeding on which hosts.

METHODS

Light-suction traps were used at two UK zoos: the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) London Zoo (LZ) and ZSL Whipsnade Zoo (WZ). Traps were run one night each week from June 2014 to June 2015. Culicoides were morphologically identified to the species level and any blood-fed Culicoides were processed for blood-meal analysis. DNA from blood meals was extracted and amplified using previously published primers. Sequencing was then carried out to determine the host species.

RESULTS

A total of 11,648 Culicoides were trapped and identified (n = 5880 from ZSL WZ; n = 5768 from ZSL LZ), constituting 25 different species. The six putative vectors of BTV, SBV and AHSV in northern Europe were found at both zoos and made up the majority of the total catch (n = 10,701). A total of 31 host sequences were obtained from blood-fed Culicoides. Culicoides obsoletus/C. scoticus, Culicoides dewulfi, Culicoides parroti and Culicoides punctatus were found to be biting a wide range of mammals including Bactrian camels, Indian rhinoceros, Asian elephants and humans, with Culicoides obsoletus/C. scoticus also biting Darwin's rhea. The bird-biting species, Culicoides achrayi, was found to be feeding on blackbirds, blue tits, magpies and carrion crows.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study to directly confirm blood-feeding of Culicoides on exotic zoo animals in the UK and shows that they are able to utilise a wide range of exotic as well as native host species. Due to the susceptibility of some zoo animals to Culicoides-borne arboviruses, this study demonstrates that in the event of an outbreak of one of these viruses in the UK, preventative and mitigating measures would need to be taken.

Assessing the potential of plains zebra to maintain African horse sickness in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

African horse sickness (AHS) is a disease of equids that results in a non-tariff barrier to the trade of live equids from affected countries. AHS is endemic in South Africa except for a controlled area in the Western Cape Province (WCP) where sporadic outbreaks have occurred in the past 2 decades. There is potential that the presence of zebra populations, thought to be the natural reservoir hosts for AHS, in the WCP could maintain AHS virus circulation in the area and act as a year-round source of infection for horses. However, it remains unclear whether the epidemiology or the ecological conditions present in the WCP would enable persistent circulation of AHS in the local zebra populations. Here we developed a hybrid deterministic-stochastic vector-host compartmental model of AHS transmission in plains zebra (Equus quagga), where host populations are age- and sex-structured and for which population and AHS transmission dynamics are modulated by rainfall and temperature conditions. Using this model, we showed that populations of plains zebra present in the WCP are not sufficiently large for AHS introduction events to become endemic and that coastal populations of zebra need to be >2500 individuals for AHS to persist >2 years, even if zebras are infectious for more than 50 days. AHS cannot become endemic in the coastal population of the WCP unless the zebra population involves at least 50,000 individuals. Finally, inland populations of plains zebra in the WCP may represent a risk for AHS to persist but would require populations of at least 500 zebras or show unrealistic duration of infectiousness for AHS introduction events to become endemic. Our results provide evidence that the risk of AHS persistence from a single introduction event in a given plains zebra population in the WCP is extremely low and it is unlikely to represent a long-term source of infection for local horses.

Environmental limits of Rift Valley fever revealed using ecoepidemiological mechanistic models

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) of humans and domestic animals are a significant component of the global burden of disease and a key driver of poverty. The transmission cycles of VBDs are often strongly mediated by the ecological requirements of the vectors, resulting in complex transmission dynamics, including intermittent epidemics and an unclear link between environmental conditions and disease persistence. An important broader concern is the extent to which theoretical models are reliable at forecasting VBDs; infection dynamics can be complex, and the resulting systems are highly unstable. Here, we examine these problems in detail using a case study of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a high-burden disease endemic to Africa. We develop an ecoepidemiological, compartmental, mathematical model coupled to the dynamics of ambient temperature and water availability and apply it to a realistic setting using empirical environmental data from Kenya. Importantly, we identify the range of seasonally varying ambient temperatures and water-body availability that leads to either the extinction of mosquito populations and/or RVF (nonpersistent regimens) or the establishment of long-term mosquito populations and consequently, the endemicity of the RVF infection (persistent regimens). Instabilities arise when the range of the environmental variables overlaps with the threshold of persistence. The model captures the intermittent nature of RVF occurrence, which is explained as low-level circulation under the threshold of detection, with intermittent emergence sometimes after long periods. Using the approach developed here opens up the ability to improve predictions of the emergence and behaviors of epidemics of many other important VBDs.

Challenges in developing methods for quantifying the effects of weather and climate on water-associated diseases: A systematic review

Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis) remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critical analyses of the methodological approaches. Our objective is to review and summarize statistical and modelling methods used to investigate the effects of weather and climate on infectious diseases associated with water, in order to identify limitations and knowledge gaps in developing of new methods. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers published from 2000 to 2015. Search terms included concepts related to water-associated diseases, weather and climate, statistical, epidemiological and modelling methods. We found 102 full text papers that met our criteria and were included in the analysis. The most commonly used methods were grouped in two clusters: process-based models (PBM) and time series and spatial epidemiology (TS-SE). In general, PBM methods were employed when the bio-physical mechanism of the pathogen under study was relatively well known (e.g. Vibrio cholerae); TS-SE tended to be used when the specific environmental mechanisms were unclear (e.g. Campylobacter). Important data and methodological challenges emerged, with implications for surveillance and control of water-associated infections. The most common limitations comprised: non-inclusion of key factors (e.g. biological mechanism, demographic heterogeneity, human behavior), reporting bias, poor data quality, and collinearity in exposures. Furthermore, the methods often did not distinguish among the multiple sources of time-lags (e.g. patient physiology, reporting bias, healthcare access) between environmental drivers/exposures and disease detection. Key areas of future research include: disentangling the complex effects of weather/climate on each exposure-health outcome pathway (e.g. person-to-person vs environment-to-person), and linking weather data to individual cases longitudinally.

Vector-borne diseases

After a request from the European Commission, EFSA's Panel on Animal Health and Welfare summarised the main characteristics of 36 vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in https://efsa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/PublicGallery/index.html?appid=dfbeac92aea944599ed1eb754aa5e6d1. The risk of introduction in the EU through movement of livestock or pets was assessed for each of the 36 VBDs individually, using a semiquantitative Method to INTegrate all relevant RISK aspects (MINTRISK model), which was further modified to a European scale into the http://www3.lei.wur.nl/mintrisk/ModelMgt.aspx. Only eight of the 36 VBD-agents had an overall rate of introduction in the EU (being the combination of the rate of entry, vector transmission and establishment) which was estimated to be above 0.001 introductions per year. These were Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus, bluetongue virus, West Nile virus, Schmallenberg virus, Hepatozoon canis, Leishmania infantum, Bunyamwera virus and Highlands J. virus. For these eight diseases, the annual extent of spread was assessed, assuming the implementation of available, authorised prevention and control measures in the EU. Further, the probability of overwintering was assessed, as well as the possible impact of the VBDs on public health, animal health and farm production. For the other 28 VBD-agents for which the rate of introduction was estimated to be very low, no further assessments were made. Due to the uncertainty related to some parameters used for the risk assessment or the instable or unpredictability disease situation in some of the source regions, it is recommended to update the assessment when new information becomes available. Since this risk assessment was carried out for large regions in the EU for many VBD-agents, it should be considered as a first screening. If a more detailed risk assessment for a specific VBD is wished for on a national or subnational level, the EFSA-VBD-RISK-model is freely available for this purpose.

African Horse Sickness Virus: History, Transmission, and Current Status

African horse sickness virus (AHSV) is a lethal arbovirus of equids that is transmitted between hosts primarily by biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). AHSV affects draft, thoroughbred, and companion horses and donkeys in Africa, Asia, and Europe. In this review, we examine the impact of AHSV critically and discuss entomological studies that have been conducted to improve understanding of its epidemiology and control. The transmission of AHSV remains a major research focus and we critically review studies that have implicated both Culicoides and other blood-feeding arthropods in this process. We explore AHSV both as an epidemic pathogen and within its endemic range as a barrier to development, an area of interest that has been underrepresented in studies of the virus to date. By discussing AHSV transmission in the African republics of South Africa and Senegal, we provide a more balanced view of the virus as a threat to equids in a diverse range of settings, thus leading to a discussion of key areas in which our knowledge of transmission could be improved. The use of entomological data to detect, predict and control AHSV is also examined, including reference to existing studies carried out during unprecedented outbreaks of bluetongue virus in Europe, an arbovirus of wild and domestic ruminants also transmitted by Culicoides.

Potential vectors of equine arboviruses in the UK

There is growing concern about the increasing risk of disease outbreaks caused by arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) in both human beings and animals. There are several mosquito-borne viral diseases that cause varying levels of morbidity and mortality in horses and that can have substantial welfare and economic ramifications. While none has been recorded in the UK, vector species for some of these viruses are present, suggesting that UK equines may be at risk. The authors undertook, therefore, the first study of mosquito species on equine premises in the UK. Mosquito magnet traps and red-box traps were used to sample adults, and larvae were collected from water sources such as tyres, buckets, ditches and pools. Several species that are known to be capable of transmitting important equine infectious arboviruses were trapped. The most abundant, with a maximum catch of 173 in 72 hours, was Ochlerotatus detritus, a competent vector of some flaviviruses; the highest densities were found near saltmarsh habitats. The most widespread species, recorded at >75 per cent of sites, was Culiseta annulata. This study demonstrates that potential mosquito vectors of arboviruses, including those known to be capable of infecting horses, are present and may be abundant on equine premises in the UK.

African horse sickness: The potential for an outbreak in disease-free regions and current disease control and elimination techniques

African horse sickness (AHS) is an arboviral disease of equids transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. The virus is endemic in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and official AHS disease-free status can be obtained from the World Organization for Animal Health on fulfilment of a number of criteria. AHS is associated with case fatality rates of up to 95%, making an outbreak among naïve horses both a welfare and economic disaster. The worldwide distributions of similar vector-borne diseases (particularly bluetongue disease of ruminants) are changing rapidly, probably due to a combination of globalisation and climate change. There is extensive evidence that the requisite conditions for an AHS epizootic currently exist in disease-free countries. In particular, although the stringent regulations enforced upon competition horses make them extremely unlikely to redistribute the virus, there are great concerns over the effects of illegal equid movement. An outbreak of AHS in a disease free region would have catastrophic effects on equine welfare and industry, particularly for international events such as the Olympic Games. While many regions have contingency plans in place to manage an outbreak of AHS, further research is urgently required if the equine industry is to avoid or effectively contain an AHS epizootic in disease-free regions. This review describes the key aspects of AHS as a global issue and discusses the evidence supporting concerns that an epizootic may occur in AHS free countries, the planned government responses, and the roles and responsibilities of equine veterinarians.

Spatial measurement errors in the field of spatial epidemiology

Background

Spatial epidemiology has been aided by advances in geographic information systems, remote sensing, global positioning systems and the development of new statistical methodologies specifically designed for such data. Given the growing popularity of these studies, we sought to review and analyze the types of spatial measurement errors commonly encountered during spatial epidemiological analysis of spatial data.

Methods

Google Scholar, Medline, and Scopus databases were searched using a broad set of terms for papers indexed by a term indicating location (space or geography or location or position) and measurement error (measurement error or measurement inaccuracy or misclassification or uncertainty): we reviewed all papers appearing before December 20, 2014. These papers and their citations were reviewed to identify the relevance to our review.

Results

We were able to define and classify spatial measurement errors into four groups: (1) pure spatial location measurement errors, including both non-instrumental errors (multiple addresses, geocoding errors, outcome aggregations, and covariate aggregation) and instrumental errors; (2) location-based outcome measurement error (purely outcome measurement errors and missing outcome measurements); (3) location-based covariate measurement errors (address proxies); and (4) Covariate-Outcome spatial misaligned measurement errors. We propose how these four classes of errors can be unified within an integrated theoretical model and possible solutions were discussed.

Conclusion

Spatial measurement errors are ubiquitous threat to the validity of spatial epidemiological studies. We propose a systematic framework for understanding the various mechanisms which generate spatial measurement errors and present practical examples of such errors.

Comparing the effect of modeled climatic variables on the distribution of African horse sickness in South Africa and Namibia

Africa horse sickness (AHS) is a lethal disease of horses with a seasonal occurrence that is influenced by environmental conditions that favor the development of Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). This study compared and evaluated the relationship of various modeled climatic variables with the distribution and abundance of AHS in South Africa and Namibia. A comprehensive literature review of the historical AHS reported data collected from the Windhoek archives as well as annual reports from the Directorate of Veterinary services in Namibia were conducted. South African AHS reported data were collected from the South African Department of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. Daily climatic data were extracted for the time period 1993-2011 from the ERA-interim re-analysis dataset. The principal component analysis of the complete dataset indicated a significant statistical difference between Namibia and South Africa for the various climate variables and the outbreaks of AHS. The most influential parameters in the distribution of AHS included humidity, precipitation, evaporation, and minimum temperature. In South Africa, temperature had the most significant effect on the outbreaks of AHS, whereas in Namibia, humidity and precipitation were the main drivers. The maximum AHS cases in South Africa occurred at temperatures of 20-22° C and relative humidity between 50-70%. Furthermore, anthropogenic effects must be taken into account when trying to understand the distribution of AHS.

Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) and livestock in the Netherlands: comparing host preference and attack rates on a Shetland pony, a dairy cow, and a sheep

Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) host preferences and attack rates were quantified in early summer at a dairy farm in the Netherlands using livestock tethered at pasture. Midges were aspirated hourly over seven consecutive hours (17:00-23:00) from a dairy cow, a Shetland pony, and a sheep and correspondingly yielded seventeen, thirteen, and nine species. Of the 14,181 midges obtained, approximately 95% belonged to the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi, C. chiopterus, and C. punctatus that together include all proven or potential vectors for arboviral diseases in livestock in northwestern Europe. On average, 7.6 and 3.5 times more Culicoides were collected, respectively, from the cow and the Shetland pony than from the sheep. In descending order of abundance, the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi, and C. chiopterus dominated attacks on all three hosts, whereas C. punctatus and C. pulicaris favored only the two larger hosts. Irrespective of the host species involved, the three body regions attracted the same component species, C. chiopterus favoring the legs, C. punctatus and C. achrayi the belly, and the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi, and C. pulicaris the head, back, and flanks. That known and potential vectors for animal diseases feed indiscriminately on a broad range of mammal hosts means that all major livestock species, including equines, are rendered susceptible to one or more Culicoides-borne pathogens.

Can insecticide-treated netting provide protection for Equids from Culicoides biting midges in the United Kingdom?

Background

Biting midges of the genus Culicoides Latreille, 1809 (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) cause a significant biting nuisance to equines and are responsible for the biological transmission of African horse sickness virus (AHSV). While currently restricted in distribution to sub-Saharan Africa, AHSV has a history of emergence into southern Europe and causes one of the most lethal diseases of horses and other species of Equidae. In the event of an outbreak of AHSV, the use of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) to screen equine accomodation is recommended by competent authorities including the Office International des Épizooties (OIE) in order to reduce vector-host contact.

Methods

Seven commercially avaliable pyrethroid insecticides and three repellent compounds, all of which are licensed for amateur use, were assessed in modified World Health Organization (WHO) cone bioassay trials in the laboratory using a colony line of Culicoides nubeculosus (Meigen), 1830. Two field trials were subsequently conducted to test the efficiency of treated net screens in preventing entry of Culicoides.

Results

A formulation of cypermethrin (0.15 % w/w) and pyrethrins (0.2 % w/w) (Tri-Tec 14®, LS Sales (Farnham) Ltd, Bloxham, UK) applied to black polyvinyl-coated polyester insect screen (1.6 mm aperture; 1.6 mm thickness) inflicted 100 % mortality on batches of C. nubeculosus following a three minute exposure in the WHO cone bioassays at 1, 7 and 14 days post-treatment. Tri-Tec 14® outperformed all other treatments tested and was subsequently selected for use in field trials. The first trial demonstrated that treated screens placed around an ultraviolet light-suction trap entirely prevented Culicoides being collected, despite their collection in identical traps with untreated screening or no screening. The second field trial examined entry of Culicoides into stables containing horses and found that while the insecticide treated screens reduced entry substantially, there was still a small risk of exposure to biting.

Conclusions

Screened stables can be utilised as part of an integrated control program in the event of an AHSV outbreak in order to reduce vector-host contact and may also be applicable to protection of horses from Culicoides during transport.

A spatiotemporal model to assess the introduction risk of African horse sickness by import of animals and vectors in France

Background

African horse sickness (AHS) is a major, Culicoides-borne viral disease in equines whose introduction into Europe could have dramatic consequences. The disease is considered to be endemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Recent introductions of other Culicoides-borne viruses (bluetongue and Schmallenberg) into northern Europe have highlighted the risk that AHS may arrive in Europe as well. The aim of our study was to provide a spatiotemporal quantitative risk model of AHS introduction into France. The study focused on two pathways of introduction: the arrival of an infectious host (PW-host) and the arrival of an infectious Culicoides midge via the livestock trade (PW-vector). The risk of introduction was calculated by determining the probability of an infectious animal or vector entering the country and the probability of the virus then becoming established: i.e., the virus’s arrival in France resulting in at least one local equine host being infected by one local vector. This risk was assessed using data from three consecutive years (2010 to 2012) for 22 regions in France.

Results

The results of the model indicate that the annual risk of AHS being introduced to France is very low but that major spatiotemporal differences exist. For both introduction pathways, risk is higher from July to October and peaks in July. In general, regions with warmer climates are more at risk, as are colder regions with larger equine populations; however, regional variation in animal importation patterns (number and species) also play a major role in determining risk. Despite the low probability that AHSV is present in the EU, intra-EU trade of equines contributes most to the risk of AHSV introduction to France because it involves a large number of horse movements.

Conclusion

It is important to address spatiotemporal differences when assessing the risk of ASH introduction and thus also when implementing efficient surveillance efforts. The methods and results of this study may help develop surveillance techniques and other risk reduction measures that will prevent the introduction of AHS or minimize AHS’ potential impact once introduced, both in France and the rest of Europe.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-015-0435-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Repellent effect of topical deltamethrin on blood feeding by Culicoides on horses

African horse sickness (AHS) is a vectorborne disease spread by Culicoides biting midges. The UK's Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs currently suggests using topical deltamethrin for AHS control; however, no data are available regarding its efficacy in the horse. The aims of this study were to investigate the effect of topical deltamethrin on blood feeding by Culicoides on horses and to investigate which Culicoides species blood fed on horses. Three pairs of horses were placed in partially enclosed cages that allowed samples representing the Culicoides interacting with individual horses to be sampled. Four data collection sessions were completed before one horse from each pair was topically treated with 10 ml of 1 per cent deltamethrin solution and another four sessions were then carried out. Collected Culicoides were identified and each biting midge examined to see if it had blood fed. The most abundant species collected were C. chiopterus, C. dewulfi, C. obsoletus and C. scoticus (44.3 per cent) and either C. pulicaris or C. punctatus (34.7 per cent). These species were also more likely to have blood fed than other species, supporting their potential role as AHS vectors if the virus were to reach the UK. There was no significant effect of treatment on blood feeding by Culicoides. The results do not support the use of topical deltamethrin to prevent blood feeding by Culicoides on individual horses; however, the study does not investigate the effect that the widespread use of topical deltamethrin might have on vector numbers or disease transmission from viraemic individuals during an outbreak of AHS.

Bionomics of temperate and tropical Culicoides midges: knowledge gaps and consequences for transmission of Culicoides-borne viruses

Culicoides midges are abundant hematophagous flies that vector arboviruses of veterinary and medical importance. Dramatic changes in the epidemiology of Culicoides-borne arboviruses have occurred since 1998, including the emergence of exotic viruses in northern temperate regions, increases in global disease incidence, and enhanced virus diversity in tropical zones. Drivers may include changes in climate, land use, trade, and animal husbandry. New Culicoides species and new wild reservoir hosts have been implicated in transmission, highlighting the dynamic nature of pathogen-vector-host interactions. Focusing on potential vector species worldwide and key elements of vectorial capacity, we review the sensitivity of Culicoides life cycles to abiotic and biotic factors. We consider implications for designing control measures and understanding impacts of environmental change in different ecological contexts. Critical geographical, biological, and taxonomic knowledge gaps are prioritized. Recent developments in genomics and mathematical modeling may enhance ecological understanding of these complex arbovirus systems.

Identification of Suitable Areas for African Horse Sickness Virus Infections in Spanish Equine Populations

African horse sickness (AHS) is one of the most important vector-borne viral infectious diseases of equines, transmitted mainly by Culicoides spp. The re-emergence of Culicoides-borne diseases in Europe, such as the recent bluetongue (BT) or Schmallenberg outbreaks, has raised concern about the potential re-introduction and further spread of AHS virus (AHSV) in Europe. Spain has one of the largest European equine populations. In addition, its geographical, environmental and entomological conditions favour AHSV infections, as shown by the historical outbreaks in the 1990s. The establishment of risk-based surveillance strategies would allow the early detection and rapid control of any potential AHSV outbreak. This study aimed to identify the areas and time periods that are suitable or at high risk for AHS occurrence in Spain using a GIS-based multicriteria decision framework. Specifically risk maps for AHS occurrence were produced using a weighted linear combination of the main risk factors of disease, namely extrinsic incubation period, equine density and distribution of competent Culicoides populations. Model results revealed that the south-western and north-central areas of Spain and the Balearic Islands are the areas at the highest risk for AHSV infections, particularly in late summer months. Conversely, Galicia, Castile and Leon and La Rioja can be considered as low-risk regions. This result was validated with historical AHS and BT outbreaks in Spain, and with the Culicoides vector distribution area. The model results, together with current Spanish equine production features, should provide the foundations to design risk-based and more cost-effective surveillance strategies for the early detection and rapid control potential of AHS outbreaks in Spain.

Worldwide niche and future potential distribution of Culicoides imicola, a major vector of bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses

We modelled the ecoclimatic niche of Culicoides imicola, a major arthropod vector of midge-borne viral pathogens affecting ruminants and equids, at fine scale and on a global extent, so as to provide insight into current and future risks of disease epizootics, and increase current knowledge of the species' ecology. Based on the known distribution and ecology of C. imicola, the species' response to monthly climatic conditions was characterised using CLIMEX with 10′ spatial resolution climatic datasets. The species' climatic niche was projected worldwide and under future climatic scenarios. The validated model highlights the role of irrigation in supporting the occurrence of C. imicola in arid regions. In Europe, the modelled potential distribution of C. imicola extended further West than its reported distribution, raising questions regarding ongoing process of colonization and non-climatic habitat factors. The CLIMEX model highlighted similar ecological niches for C. imicola and the Australasian C. brevitarsis raising questions on biogeography and biosecurity. Under the climate change scenarios considered, its' modelled potential distribution could expand northward in the Northern hemisphere, whereas in Africa its range may contract in the future. The biosecurity risks from bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses need to be re-evaluated in regions where the vector's niche is suitable. Under a warmer climate, the risk of vector-borne epizootic pathogens such as bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses are likely to increase as the climate suitability for C. imicola shifts poleward, especially in Western Europe.

Impact of temperature, feeding preference and vaccination on Schmallenberg virus transmission in Scotland

First identified in 2011, Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is principally transmitted by Culicoides midges and affects ruminants. Clinical presentation is typified by foetal abnormalities, but despite very high infection rates, relatively few animals present with clinical signs. In this paper we further develop a previously published stochastic mathematical model of SBV spread to investigate the optimal deployment of a vaccine for SBV in Scotland, a country that has experienced only sporadic and isolated cases of SBV. We consider the use of the vaccine under different temperatures and explore the effects of a vector preference for feeding on cattle. We demonstrate that vaccine impact is optimised by targeting it at the high risk areas in the south of Scotland, or vaccinating only cattle. At higher than average temperatures, and hence increased transmission potential, the relative impact of vaccination is considerably enhanced. Vaccine impact is also enhanced if vectors feed preferentially on cattle. These findings are of considerable importance when planning control strategies for SBV and also have important implications for management of other arboviruses such as Bluetongue virus. Environmental determinants and feeding preferences should be researched further to inform development of effective control strategies.

Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) host preferences and biting rates in the Netherlands: comparing cattle, sheep and the black-light suction trap

Host preference is an important determinant of feeding behaviour in biting insects and a critical component in the transmission of vector-borne diseases. The aim of the study was to quantify Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) host preferences and biting rates using tethered livestock at pasture (a dairy cow and a sheep) and to compare the numbers of biting midges aspirated off them to those captured simultaneously in a black-light suction trap acting as a surrogate host. Culicoides collections were made hourly over seven hours (from five hours before official sunset to two hours after) between 27 May and 19 June, 2013 at a dairy farm (eastern Netherlands). The study involved 13 replicates of a site × host randomised design. Culicoides collected by black-light suction trap and by direct aspiration were identified to species morphologically and age-graded. The C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi and C. pulicaris predominated on the back and flanks of the animals, C. punctatus on the belly, and C. chiopterus on the legs. Using comparable collection periods, 9.3 times (95% confidence interval: 8.6-10.0) more Culicoides were caught on the cow than on the sheep and 25.4 times (95% confidence interval: 18.4-35.1) less in the black-light suction trap compared to the sheep. Mean Culicoides biting rates on the cow across the 7-h collection period were 4.6, 3.5, 1.0, 1.0 and 0.5 min(-1) for C. dewulfi, the C. obsoletus complex, C. chiopterus, C. punctatus and C. pulicaris, respectively; for the sheep they were 0.6, 0.4 and 0.1 min(-1) for the C. obsoletus complex, C. dewulfi and C. punctatus, respectively. Though midges were aspirated off livestock during each of the seven hours, they only began to appear in the black-light suction trap 5h later, from sunset onwards. After sunset, its efficacy improved markedly, but occurred when midge activity overall had begun to decline. Though it was quite accurate in ranking Culicoides species abundance, the black-light suction trap proved to be of limited value for determining hours of peak biting activity, levels of abundance, and host preference, in Culicoides.

Inferences about the transmission of Schmallenberg virus within and between farms

In the summer of 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a Culicoides-borne orthobunyavirus, emerged in Germany and The Netherlands and subsequently spread across much of Europe. To draw inferences about the transmission of SBV we have developed two models to describe its spread within and between farms. The within-farm model was fitted to seroprevalence data for cattle and sheep farms in Belgium and The Netherlands, with parameters estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Despite the short duration of viraemia in cattle and sheep (mean of 3–4 days) the within-farm seroprevalence can reach high levels (mean within-herd seroprevalence >80%), largely because the probability of transmission from host to vector is high (14%) and SBV is able to replicate quickly (0.03 per day-degree) and at relatively low temperatures (threshold for replication: 12.3 °C). Parameter estimates from the within-farm model were then used in a separate between-farm model to simulate the regional spread of SBV. This showed that the rapid spread of SBV at a regional level is primarily a consequence of the high probability of transmission from host to vector and the temperature requirements for virus replication. Our results, obtained for a region of the UK in a typical year with regard to animal movements, indicate that there is no need to invoke additional transmission mechanisms to explain the observed patterns of rapid spread of SBV in Europe. Moreover, the imposition of movement restrictions, even a total movement ban, has little effect on the spread of SBV at this scale.