Evolutionary rescue and the limits of adaptation

Mutualism breakdown underpins evolutionary rescue in an obligate cross-feeding bacterial consortium

Populations facing lethal environmental change can escape extinction through rapid genetic adaptation, a process known as evolutionary rescue. Despite extensive study, evolutionary rescue is largely unexplored in mutualistic communities, where it is likely constrained by the less adaptable partner. Here, we explored empirically the likelihood, population dynamics, and genetic mechanisms underpinning evolutionary rescue in an obligate mutualism involving cross-feeding of amino acids between auxotrophic Escherichia coli strains. We found that over 80% of populations overcame a severe decline when exposed to two distinct types of abrupt, lethal stress. Of note, in all cases only one of the strains survived by metabolically bypassing the auxotrophy. Crucially, the mutualistic consortium exhibited greater sensitivity to both stressors than a prototrophic control strain, such that reversion to autonomy was sufficient to alleviate stress below lethal levels. This sensitivity was common across other stresses, suggesting it may be a general feature of amino acid-dependent obligate mutualisms. Our results reveal that evolutionary rescue may depend critically on the specific genetic and physiological details of the interacting partners, adding rich layers of complexity to the endeavor of predicting the fate of microbial communities facing intense environmental deterioration.

Pre-exposure to stress reduces loss of community and genetic diversity following severe environmental disturbance

Environmental stress caused by anthropogenic impacts is increasing worldwide. Understanding the ecological and evolutionary consequences for biodiversity will be crucial for our ability to respond effectively. Historical exposure to environmental stress is expected to select for resistant species, shifting community composition toward more stress-tolerant taxa. Concurrent with this species sorting process, genotypes within resistant taxa that have the highest relative fitness under severe stress are expected to increase in frequency, leading to evolutionary adaptation. However, empirical demonstrations of these dual ecological and evolutionary processes in natural communities are rare. Here, we provide evidence for simultaneous species sorting and evolutionary adaptation across multiple species within a natural freshwater bacterial community. Using a two-phase stressor experimental design (acidification pre-exposure followed by severe acidification) in aquatic mesocosms, we show that pre-exposed communities were more resistant than naive communities to taxonomic loss when faced with severe acid stress. However, after sustained severe acidification, taxonomic richness of both pre-exposed and naive communities eventually converged. All communities experiencing severe acidification became dominated by an acidophilic bacterium, Acidiphilium rubrum, but this species retained greater genetic diversity and followed distinct evolutionary trajectories in pre-exposed relative to naive communities. These patterns were shared across other acidophilic species, providing repeated evidence for the impact of pre-exposure on evolutionary outcomes despite the convergence of community profiles. Our results underscore the need to consider both ecological and evolutionary processes to accurately predict the responses of natural communities to environmental change.

Multiple stressors in the Anthropocene: Urban evolutionary history modifies sensitivity to the toxic effects of crude oil exposure in killifish

Persistence of wild species in human-altered environments is difficult, in part because challenges to fitness are complex when multiple environmental changes occur simultaneously, which is common in the Anthropocene. This complexity is difficult to conceptualize because the nature of environmental change is often highly context specific. A mechanism-guided approach may help to shape intuition and predictions about complexity; fitness challenges posed by co-occurring stressors with similar mechanisms of action may be less severe than for those with different mechanisms of action. We approach these considerations within the context of ecotoxicology because this field is built upon a rich mechanistic foundation. We hypothesized that evolved resistance to one class of common toxicants would afford resilience to the fitness impacts of another class of common toxicants that shares mechanisms of toxicity. Fundulus killifish populations in urban estuaries have repeatedly evolved resistance to persistent organic pollutants including PCBs. Since PCBs and some of the toxicants that constitute crude oil (e.g., high molecular weight PAHs) exert toxicity through perturbation of AHR signaling, we predicted that PCB resistant populations would also be resilient to crude oil toxicity. Common garden comparative oil exposure experiments, including killifish populations with different exposure histories, showed that most killifish populations were sensitive to fitness impacts (reproduction and development) caused by oil exposure, but that fish from the PCB-resistant population were insensitive. Population differences in toxic outcomes were not compatible with random-neutral expectations. Transcriptomics revealed that the molecular mechanisms that contributed to population variation in PAH resilience were shared with those that contribute to evolved variation in PCB resilience. We conclude that the fitness challenge posed by environmental pollutants is effectively reduced when those chemicals share mechanisms that affect fitness. Mechanistic considerations may help to scale predictions regarding the fitness challenges posed by stressors that may co-occur in human-altered environments.

A Genetic Variant of Delta-9 Desaturase Is Associated With Latitudinal Adaptation in a Coral from the Great Barrier Reef

Coral populations across the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) could rapidly adapt to the warming climate if they have standing genetic variation for thermal tolerance. Here, we describe a locus likely involved in latitudinal adaptation of Acropora millepora. This locus shows a steep latitudinal gradient of derived allele frequency increasing at higher latitudes, and harbours a cluster of eight tandemly repeated Δ9-desaturase genes adjacent to a region in the genome where a hard selective sweep likely occurred. In colonies reciprocally transplanted across 4.5° of latitude, the expression of Δ9-desaturase is upregulated at the high-latitude reef. Furthermore, corals from the low-latitude reef bearing the derived Δ9-desaturase allele express the gene more and grow faster than their peers when transplanted to the high-latitude reef. In other organisms ranging from bacteria to fish, Δ9-desaturase is upregulated under cold conditions to adjust membrane fluidity by introducing double bonds into fatty acid chains of membrane lipids. It is therefore plausible that the signal of latitudinal adaptation at the Δ9-desaturase locus is due to its involvement in adaptation to cooler temperatures at higher latitudes.

Coevolution of marine phytoplankton and Alteromonas bacteria in response to pCO2 and coculture

As a result of human activity, Earth's atmosphere and climate are changing at an unprecedented pace. Models based on short-term experiments predict major changes will occur in marine phytoplankton communities in the future ocean, but rarely consider how evolution or interactions with other microbes may influence these changes. Here, we experimentally evolved several phytoplankton in coculture with a heterotrophic bacterium, Alteromonas sp. EZ55, under either present-day or predicted future pCO2 conditions. Growth rates of phytoplankton generally increased over time under both conditions, but only Thalassiosira oceanica had evidence of a growth rate tradeoff in the ancestral environment after evolution at elevated pCO2. The growth defects observed in ancestral Prochlorococcus cultures at elevated pCO2 and in axenic culture were diminished after evolution, possibly due to regulatory mutations in antioxidant genes. Except for Prochlorococcus, mutational profiles suggested phytoplankton experienced primarily purifying selection, but most Alteromonas lineages showed evidence of directional selection, where evolution appeared to favor a metabolic switch between growth on small organic acids with cyanobacteria versus catabolism of more complex carbon substrates with eukaryotic phytoplankton. Evolved Alteromonas were also poorer "helpers" for Prochlorococcus, consistent with that interaction being a competitive Black Queen process rather than a true mutualism. This work provides new insights on how phytoplankton will respond to increased pCO2 and on the evolutionary mechanisms governing phytoplankton:bacteria interactions. It also clearly demonstrates that both evolution and interspecies interactions must be considered to predict future marine biogeochemistry.

Evolutionary shift of a tipping point can precipitate, or forestall, collapse in a microbial community

Global ecosystems are rapidly approaching tipping points, where minute shifts can lead to drastic ecological changes. Theory predicts that evolution can shape a system's tipping point behaviour, but direct experimental support is lacking. Here we investigate the power of evolutionary processes to alter these critical thresholds and protect an ecological community from collapse. To do this, we propagate a two-species microbial system composed of Escherichia coli and baker's yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, for over 4,000 generations, and map ecological stability before and after coevolution. Our results reveal that tipping points-and other geometric properties of ecological communities-can evolve to alter the range of conditions under which our microbial community can flourish. We develop a mathematical model to illustrate how evolutionary changes in parameters such as growth rate, carrying capacity and resistance to environmental change affect ecological resilience. Our study shows that adaptation of key species can shift an ecological community's tipping point, potentially promoting ecological stability or accelerating collapse.

Widespread Adaptive Introgression of Major Histocompatibility Complex Genes across Vertebrate Hybrid Zones

Interspecific introgression is a potentially important source of novel variation of adaptive significance. Although multiple cases of adaptive introgression are well documented, broader generalizations about its targets and mechanisms are lacking. Multiallelic balancing selection, particularly when acting through rare allele advantage, is an evolutionary mechanism expected to favor adaptive introgression. This is because introgressed alleles are likely to confer an immediate selective advantage, facilitating their establishment in the recipient species even in the face of strong genomic barriers to introgression. Vertebrate major histocompatibility complex genes are well-established targets of long-term multiallelic balancing selection, so widespread adaptive major histocompatibility complex introgression is expected. Here, we evaluate this hypothesis using data from 29 hybrid zones formed by fish, amphibians, squamates, turtles, birds, and mammals at advanced stages of speciation. The key prediction of more extensive major histocompatibility complex introgression compared to genome-wide introgression was tested with three complementary statistical approaches. We found evidence for widespread adaptive introgression of major histocompatibility complex genes, providing a link between the process of adaptive introgression and an underlying mechanism. Our work identifies major histocompatibility complex introgression as a general mechanism by which species can acquire novel, and possibly regain previously lost, variation that may enhance defense against pathogens and increase adaptive potential.

Resource-based modelling approach to studying evolutionary rescue

In this paper, we present an in-depth investigation into the dynamics of evolutionary rescue using a resource-based modelling approach. Utilizing classical consumer-resource models, we aim to understand how species can adapt to abrupt environmental changes that alter the availability of substitutable resources. Through both analytical solutions and simulation-based techniques, we explore the conditions under which populations can recover from critical sizes and avoid extinction. Our findings highlight the importance of minimum viable population sizes, mutation rates, and the adaptive capacity of metabolic strategies in influencing population resilience. We demonstrate that while increased mutation rates can facilitate faster recovery by enabling populations to evolve new metabolic strategies suited to the altered resource landscape, populations starting with smaller sizes or facing severe reductions in resource availability are more susceptible to extinction. This study offers valuable insights into the interplay between ecological dynamics and evolutionary mechanisms, providing a comprehensive framework for predicting population persistence and informing conservation strategies under changing environmental conditions.

Effect of the Seed Bank on Evolutionary Rescue in Small Populations: Univariate and Multivariate Demogenetic Dynamics

AbstractUnder global change, the impact of seed banks on evolutionary rescue is uncertain. They buffer plant populations from demographic and genetic stochasticity but extend generation time and can become a reservoir of maladapted alleles. We built analytical and individual-based models to predict the effect of seed banks on the persistence of small annual plant populations facing an abrupt or sustained directional change in uni- or multivariate trait optima. Demogenetic dynamics predict that under most scenarios seed banks increase the lag yet enhance persistence to 200-250 years by absorbing demographic losses. Simulations indicate that the seed bank has a minimal impact on the genetic skew, although we suggest that this result could depend on the fitness component under selection. Our multivariate model reveals that by enlarging and reshaping the G matrix, seed banks can diminish the impact of mutational correlation and even accelerate adaptation under antagonistic pleiotropy relative to populations without a bank. We illustrate how the magnitude of optimum fluctuations, type and degree of optimum change, selection strength, and vital rates are weights that tip the scales determining persistence. Finally, our work highlights that migration from the past is not maladaptative when optimum fluctuations are large enough to create stepping stones to the new optimum.

Increasing environmental variability inhibits evolutionary rescue in a long-lived vertebrate

Evolutionary rescue, whereby adaptive evolutionary change rescues populations from extinction, is theorized to enable imperiled animal populations to persist under increasing anthropogenic change. Despite a large body of evidence in theoretical and laboratory settings, the potential for evolutionary rescue to be a viable adaptation process for free-ranging animals remains unknown. Here, we leverage a 38-year dataset following the fates of 53,959 Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) to investigate whether a free-ranging vertebrate species can morphologically adapt to long-term environmental change sufficiently to promote population persistence. Despite strong selective pressures, we found that penguins did not adapt morphologically to long-term environmental changes, leading to projected population extirpation. Fluctuating selection benefited larger penguins in some environmental contexts, and smaller penguins in others, ultimately mitigating their ability to adapt under increasing environmental variability. Under future climate projections, we found that the species cannot be rescued by adaptation, suggesting similar constraints for other long-lived species. Such results reveal how fluctuating selection driven by environmental variability can inhibit adaptation under long-term environmental change. Our eco-evolutionary approach helps explain the lack of adaptation and evolutionary rescue in response to environmental change observed in many animal species.

Climate change, temperature extremes, and impacts on hyperparasitoids

Anthropogenic climate change, including temperature extremes, is having a major impact on insect physiology, phenology, behavior, populations, and communities. Hyperparasitoids (insects whose offspring develop in, or on, the body of a primary parasitoid host) are expected to be especially impacted by such effects due to their typical life history traits (e.g. low fecundity and slow development), small populations (being high on the food chain), and cascading effects mediated via lower trophic levels. We review evidence for direct and indirect temperature and climate-related effects mediated via plants, herbivores, and the primary parasitoid host species on hyperparasitoid populations, focusing on higher temperatures. We discuss how hyperparasitoid responses may feed back to the community and affect biological control programs. We conclude that despite their great importance, very little is known about the potential effects of climate change on hyperparasitoids and make a plea for additional studies exploring such responses.

Understanding evolutionary rescue and parallelism in response to environmental stress

Evolutionary rescue, the process by which populations facing environmental stress avoid extinction through genetic adaptation, is a critical area of study in evolutionary biology. The order in which mutations arise and get established will be relevant to the population's rescue. This study investigates the degree of parallel evolution at the genotypic level between independent populations facing environmental stress and subject to different demographic regimes. Under density regulation, 2 regimes exist: In the first, the population can restore positive growth rates by adjusting its population size or through adaptive mutations, whereas in the second regime, the population is doomed to extinction unless a rescue mutation occurs. Analytical approximations for the likelihood of evolutionary rescue are obtained and contrasted with simulation results. We show that the initial level of maladaptation and the demographic regime significantly affect the level of parallelism. There is an evident transition between these 2 regimes. Whereas in the first regime, parallelism decreases with the level of maladaptation, it displays the opposite behavior in the rescue/extinction regime. These findings have important implications for understanding population persistence and the degree of parallelism in evolutionary responses as they integrate demographic effects and evolutionary processes.

The role of epistasis in evolutionary rescue

The process by which adaptive evolution preserves a population threatened with extinction due to environmental changes is known as evolutionary rescue. Several factors determine the fate of those populations, including demography and genetic factors, such as standing genetic variation, gene flow, availability of de novo mutations, and so on. Despite the extensive debate about evolutionary rescue in the current literature, a study about the role of epistasis and the topography of the fitness landscape on the fate of dwindling populations is missing. In the current work, we aim to fill this gap and study the influence of epistasis on the probability of extinction of populations. We present simulation results, and analytical approximations are derived. Counterintuitively, we show that the likelihood of extinction is smaller when the degree of epistasis is higher. The reason underneath is twofold: first, higher epistasis can promote mutations of more significant phenotypic effects, but also, the incongruence between the maps genotype-phenotype and phenotype-fitness turns the fitness landscape at low epistasis more rugged, thus curbing some of its advantages.

Counter-gradient variation in gene expression between fish populations facilitates colonization of low-dissolved oxygen environments

The role of phenotypic plasticity during colonization remains unclear due to the shifting importance of plasticity across timescales. In the early stages of colonization, plasticity can facilitate persistence in a novel environment; but over evolutionary time, processes such as genetic assimilation may reduce variation in plastic traits such that species with a longer evolutionary history in an environment can show lower levels of plasticity than recent invaders. Therefore, comparing species in the early stages of colonization to long-established species provides a powerful approach for uncovering the role of phenotypic plasticity during different stages of colonization. We compared gene expression between low-dissolved oxygen (DO) and high-DO populations of two cyprinid fish: Enteromius apleurogramma, a species that has undergone a recent range expansion, and E. neumayeri, a long-established native species in the same region. We sampled tissue either immediately after capture from the field or after a 2-week acclimation under high-DO conditions, allowing us to test for both evolved and plastic differences in low-DO vs high-DO populations of each species. We found that most genes showing candidate-evolved differences in gene expression did not overlap with those showing plastic differences in gene expression. However, in the genes that did overlap, there was counter-gradient variation such that plastic and evolved gene expression responses were in opposite directions in both species. Additionally, E. apleurogramma had higher levels of plasticity and evolved divergence in gene expression between field populations. We suggest that the higher level of plasticity and counter-gradient variation may have allowed rapid genetic adaptation in E. apleurogramma and facilitated colonization. This study shows how counter-gradient variation may impact the colonization of divergent oxygen environments.

Evolutionary rescue in resistance to pesticides

Evolutionary rescue occurs when the genetic evolution of adaptation saves a population from decline or extinction after environmental change. The evolution of resistance to pesticides is a special scenario of abrupt environmental change, where rescue occurs under (very) strong selection for one or a few de novo resistance mutations of large effect. Here, a population genetic model of evolutionary rescue with density-dependent population change is developed, with a focus on deriving results that are important to resistance management. Massive stochastic simulations are used to generate observations, which are accurately predicted using analytical approximations. Key results include the probability density function for the time to resistance and the probability of population extinction. The distribution of resistance times shows a lag period, a narrow peak and a long tail. Surprisingly, the mean time to resistance can increase with the strength of selection because, if a mutation does not occur early on, then its emergence is delayed by the pesticide reducing the population size. The probability of population extinction shows a sharp transition, in that when extinction is possible, it is also highly likely. Consequently, population suppression and (local) eradication can be theoretically achievable goals, as novel strategies to delay resistance evolution.

Demographic fluctuations and selection during host-parasite co-evolution interactively increase genetic diversity

Host-parasite interactions can cause strong demographic fluctuations accompanied by selective sweeps of resistance/infectivity alleles. Both demographic bottlenecks and frequent sweeps are expected to reduce the amount of segregating genetic variation and therefore might constrain adaptation during co-evolution. Recent studies, however, suggest that the interaction of demographic and selective processes is a key component of co-evolutionary dynamics and may rather positively affect levels of genetic diversity available for adaptation. Here, we provide direct experimental testing of this hypothesis by disentangling the effects of demography, selection and their interaction in an experimental host-parasite system. We grew 12 populations of a unicellular, asexually reproducing algae (Chlorella variabilis) that experienced either growth followed by constant population sizes (three populations), demographic fluctuations (three populations), selection induced by exposure to a virus (three populations), or demographic fluctuations together with virus-induced selection (three populations). After 50 days (~50 generations), we conducted whole-genome sequencing of each algal host population. We observed more genetic diversity in populations that jointly experienced selection and demographic fluctuations than in populations where these processes were experimentally separated. In addition, in those three populations that jointly experienced selection and demographic fluctuations, experimentally measured diversity exceeds expected values of diversity that account for the cultures' population sizes. Our results suggest that eco-evolutionary feedbacks can positively affect genetic diversity and provide the necessary empirical measures to guide further improvements of theoretical models of adaptation during host-parasite co-evolution.

Tests of evolutionary and genetic rescue using flour beetles, Tribolium castaneum, experimentally evolved to thermal conditions

Small, isolated populations are often characterised by low levels of genetic diversity. This can result in inbreeding depression and reduced capacity to adapt to changes in the environment, and therefore higher risk of extinction. However, sometimes these populations can be rescued if allowed to increase in size or if migrants enter, bringing in new allelic variation and thus increasing genetic diversity. This study uses experimental manipulation of population size and migration to quantify their effects on fitness in a challenging environment to better understand genetic rescue. Using small, replicated populations of Tribolium castaneum experimentally evolved to different temperature regimes we tested genetic and demographic rescue, by performing large-scale manipulations of population size and migration and examining fitness consequences over multiple generations. We measured fitness in high temperature (38°C) thermal lines maintained at their usual 'small' population size of N = 100 individuals, and with 'large' scaled up duplicates containing N≈10,000 individuals. We compared these large lines with and without migration (m = 0.1) for 10 generations. Additionally, we assessed the effects of outcrossing at an individual level, by comparing fitness of hybrid (thermal line × stock) offspring with within-line crosses. We found that, at the population level, a rapid increase in the number of individuals in the population resulted in reduced fitness (represented by reproductive output and survival through heatwave conditions), regardless of migration. However, at an individual level, the hybrid offspring of migrants with native individuals generally demonstrated increased longevity in high temperature conditions compared with individuals from thermal selection lines. Overall, these populations showed no evidence that demographic manipulations led to genetic or evolutionary rescue. Following the effects of migration in individuals over several generations may be the next step in unravelling these conflicting results. We discuss these findings in the context of conservation intervention.

Warming-induced "plastic floors" improve hypoxia vulnerability, not aerobic scope, in red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus)

Ocean warming is a prevailing threat to marine ectotherms. Recently the "plastic floors, concrete ceilings" hypothesis was proposed, which suggests that a warmed fish will acclimate to higher temperatures by reducing standard metabolic rate (SMR) while keeping maximum metabolic rate (MMR) stable, therefore improving aerobic scope (AS). Here we evaluated this hypothesis on red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) while incorporating measures of hypoxia vulnerability (critical oxygen threshold; Pcrit) and mitochondrial performance. Fish were subjected to a 12-week acclimation to 20 °C or 28 °C. Respirometry was performed every 4 weeks to obtain metabolic rate and Pcrit; mitochondrial respirometry was performed on liver and heart samples at the end of the acclimation. 28 °C fish had a significantly higher SMR, MMR, and Pcrit than 20 °C controls at time 0, but SMR declined by 36.2 % over the 12-week acclimation. No change in SMR was observed in the control treatment. Contrary to expectations, SMR suppression did not improve AS relative to time 0 owing to a progressive decline in MMR over acclimation time. Pcrit decreased by 27.2 % in the warm-acclimated fishes, which resulted in temperature treatments having statistically similar values by 12-weeks. No differences in mitochondrial traits were observed in the heart - despite a Δ8 °C assay temperature - while liver respiratory and coupling control ratios were significantly improved, suggesting that mitochondrial plasticity may contribute to the reduced SMR with warming. Overall, this work suggests that warming induced metabolic suppression offsets the deleterious consequences of high oxygen demand on hypoxia vulnerability, and in so doing greatly expands the theoretical range of metabolically available habitats for red drum.

Independently evolved pollution resistance in four killifish populations is largely explained by few variants of large effect

The genetic architecture of phenotypic traits can affect the mode and tempo of trait evolution. Human-altered environments can impose strong natural selection, where successful evolutionary adaptation requires swift and large phenotypic shifts. In these scenarios, theory predicts that adaptation is due to a few adaptive variants of large effect, but empirical studies that have revealed the genetic architecture of rapidly evolved phenotypes are rare, especially for populations inhabiting polluted environments. Fundulus killifish have repeatedly evolved adaptive resistance to extreme pollution in urban estuaries. Prior studies, including genome scans for signatures of natural selection, have revealed some of the genes and pathways important for evolved pollution resistance, and provide context for the genotype-phenotype association studies reported here. We created multiple quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping families using progenitors from four different resistant populations, and using RAD-seq genetically mapped variation in sensitivity (developmental perturbations) following embryonic exposure to a model toxicant PCB-126. We found that one to two large-effect QTL loci accounted for resistance to PCB-mediated developmental toxicity. QTLs harbored candidate genes that govern the regulation of aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) signaling. One QTL locus was shared across all populations and another was shared across three populations. One QTL locus showed strong signatures of recent natural selection in the corresponding wild population but another QTL locus did not. Some candidate genes for PCB resistance inferred from genome scans in wild populations were identified as QTL, but some key candidate genes were not. We conclude that rapidly evolved resistance to the developmental defects normally caused by PCB-126 is governed by few genes of large effect. However, other aspects of resistance beyond developmental phenotypes may be governed by additional loci, such that comprehensive resistance to PCB-126, and to the mixtures of chemicals that distinguish urban estuaries more broadly, may be more genetically complex.

Projection of current and future distribution of adaptive genetic units in an alpine ungulate

Climate projections predict major changes in alpine environments by the end of the 21st century. To avoid climate-induced maladaptation and extinction, many animal populations will either need to move to more suitable habitats or adapt in situ to novel conditions. Since populations of a species exhibit genetic variation related to local adaptation, it is important to incorporate this variation into predictive models to help assess the ability of the species to survive climate change. Here, we evaluate how the adaptive genetic variation of a mountain ungulate-the Northern chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra)-could be impacted by future global warming. Based on genotype-environment association analyses of 429 chamois using a ddRAD sequencing approach, we identified genetic variation associated with climatic gradients across the European Alps. We then delineated adaptive genetic units and projected the optimal distribution of these adaptive groups in the future. Our results suggest the presence of local adaptation to climate in Northern chamois with similar genetic adaptive responses in geographically distant but climatically similar populations. Furthermore, our results predict that future climatic changes will modify the Northern chamois adaptive landscape considerably, with various degrees of maladaptation risk.

Coral Reef Population Genomics in an Age of Global Change

Coral reefs are both exceptionally biodiverse and threatened by climate change and other human activities. Here, we review population genomic processes in coral reef taxa and their importance for understanding responses to global change. Many taxa on coral reefs are characterized by weak genetic drift, extensive gene flow, and strong selection from complex biotic and abiotic environments, which together present a fascinating test of microevolutionary theory. Selection, gene flow, and hybridization have played and will continue to play an important role in the adaptation or extinction of coral reef taxa in the face of rapid environmental change, but research remains exceptionally limited compared to the urgent needs. Critical areas for future investigation include understanding evolutionary potential and the mechanisms of local adaptation, developing historical baselines, and building greater research capacity in the countries where most reef diversity is concentrated.

Evolutionary rescue on genotypic fitness landscapes

Populations facing adverse environments, novel pathogens or invasive competitors may be destined to extinction if they are unable to adapt rapidly. Quantitative predictions of the probability of survival through adaptation, evolutionary rescue, have been previously developed for one of the most natural and well-studied mappings from an organism's traits to its fitness, Fisher's geometric model (FGM). While FGM assumes that all possible trait values are accessible via mutation, in many applications only a finite set of rescue mutations will be available, such as mutations conferring resistance to a parasite, predator or toxin. We predict the probability of evolutionary rescue, via de novo mutation, when this underlying genetic structure is included. We find that rescue probability is always reduced when its genetic basis is taken into account. Unlike other known features of the genotypic FGM, however, the probability of rescue increases monotonically with the number of available mutations and approaches the behaviour of the classical FGM as the number of available mutations approaches infinity.

Niche shifts and range expansions after invasions of two major pests: the Asian longhorned beetle and the citrus longhorned beetle

BACKGROUND

In recent years, the quarantine forestry pests the Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) Anoplophora glabripennis and the citrus longhorned beetle (CLB) Anoplophora chinensis have spread across the Northern Hemisphere, triggering concern about their potential distribution. However, little is known about the niche shifts of the pests during the invasion, making it difficult to assess their potential ranges. We thus employed two distinct approaches (i.e., ordination-based and reciprocal model-based) to compare the native and invaded niches of ALB and CLB after their spread to new continents based on global occurrence records. We further constructed models with pooled occurrences from both the native and invaded ranges to analyze the effects of occurrence partitioning on predicted ranges.

RESULTS

We detected expansions in the invaded niches of both pests, indicating that the niches shifted to varying extents after the invasion. Large shares of the native niches of ALB and CLB remained unfilled, revealing the potential for further invasion in new regions. The models calibrated with pooled occurrences clearly underestimated the potential ranges in invaded regions compared with the projections based on partitioned models considering native and invaded areas separately.

CONCLUSIONS

These results emphasize the importance of elucidating the niche dynamics of invasive species for obtaining accurately predicted ranges, which may help identify risk areas masked by the assumption of niche conservatism. Furthermore, prevention and quarantine measures for ALB and CLB are clearly needed to avoid future serious damage to forest ecosystems. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Understanding and applying biological resilience, from genes to ecosystems

The natural world is under unprecedented and accelerating pressure. Much work on understanding resilience to local and global environmental change has, so far, focussed on ecosystems. However, understanding a system's behaviour requires knowledge of its component parts and their interactions. Here we call for increased efforts to understand 'biological resilience', or the processes that enable components across biological levels, from genes to communities, to resist or recover from perturbations. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists have the tool-boxes to examine form and function, efforts to integrate this knowledge across biological levels and take advantage of big data (e.g. ecological and genomic) are only just beginning. We argue that combining eco-evolutionary knowledge with ecosystem-level concepts of resilience will provide the mechanistic basis necessary to improve management of human, natural and agricultural ecosystems, and outline some of the challenges in achieving an understanding of biological resilience.

Population genetic differentiation of the ubiquitous brooding coral Pocillopora acuta along Phuket Island reefs in the Andaman Sea, Thailand

BACKGROUND

The widespread Indo-Pacific coral species Pocillopora acuta Lamarck, 1816 displays varying levels of asexual versus sexual reproduction, with strong repercussions on genetic diversity, connectivity and genetic structuring within and among populations. For many geographic regions, baseline information on genetic diversity is still lacking, particularly in the Andaman Sea. The region suffered a massive heat-induced bleaching event in 2010 with high coral cover loss of branching coral species such as P. acuta. A subsequent bleaching in 2016, however, revealed a mild bleaching response in pocilloporids compared to other coral taxa in the region, suggesting that rare, heat tolerant genotypes had been selected by the 2010 bleaching event. In order to test whether this potential 'evolutionary rescue' event has led to a low genetic diversity, we conducted a population genetic survey covering a total of nine different P. acuta populations (336 individuals) along a 50 km coastal stretch around Phuket Island, Thailand. We used six microsatellite markers to assess genotypic diversity and to determine the prevalent mode of reproduction (i.e. sexual or asexual recruitment).

RESULTS

In contrast to other Indian Ocean P. acuta populations, the majority of corals in this study adopted a sexual reproduction mode (75% across all populations). At the same time, substantial regional gene flow was observed around Phuket Island with strong genetic differentiation as indicated by three genetic clusters that were separated by only a few kilometers. Patterns of isolation by distance over 0.7 - 40 km suggest small-scale genetic barriers, such as changing currents throughout each monsoonal season, potentially contributing to locally restricted dispersal of P. acuta larvae.

CONCLUSIONS

The occurrence of distinct genetic clusters within short coastal stretches suggests that the 2010 bleaching event has not led to extreme genetic impoverishment. While more in-depth genomic analyses are necessary to investigate changes in genetic diversity following extreme bleaching events, our results will help guide conservation efforts to maintain genetic diversity of a coral species that likely will be dominant in future, warmer Andaman Sea reefs.

Demographic consequences of an extreme heat wave are mitigated by spatial heterogeneity in an annual monkeyflower

Heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change, but the demographic and evolutionary consequences of heat waves are rarely investigated in herbaceous plant species. We examine the consequences of a short but extreme heat wave in Oregon populations of the common yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus) by leveraging a common garden experiment planted with range-wide populations and observational studies of 11 local populations. In the common garden, 89% of seedlings died during the heat wave including >96% of seedlings from geographically local populations. Some populations from hotter and drier environments had higher fitness, however, others from comparable environments performed poorly. Observational studies of local natural populations drastically differed in the consequences of the heat wave-one population was completely extirpated and nearly half had a >50% decrease in fitness. However, a few populations had greater fitness during the heat wave year. Differences in mortality corresponded to the impact of the heat wave on soil moisture-retention of soil moisture throughout the heat wave led to greater survivorship. Our results suggest that not all populations experience the same intensity or degree of mortality during extreme events and such heterogeneity could be important for genetic rescue or to facilitate the distribution of adaptive variants throughout the region.

Recent exposure to environmental stochasticity does not determine the demographic resilience of natural populations

Escalating climatic and anthropogenic pressures expose ecosystems worldwide to increasingly stochastic environments. Yet, our ability to forecast the responses of natural populations to this increased environmental stochasticity is impeded by a limited understanding of how exposure to stochastic environments shapes demographic resilience. Here, we test the association between local environmental stochasticity and the resilience attributes (e.g. resistance, recovery) of 2242 natural populations across 369 animal and plant species. Contrary to the assumption that past exposure to frequent environmental shifts confers a greater ability to cope with current and future global change, we illustrate how recent environmental stochasticity regimes from the past 50 years do not predict the inherent resistance or recovery potential of natural populations. Instead, demographic resilience is strongly predicted by the phylogenetic relatedness among species, with survival and developmental investments shaping their responses to environmental stochasticity. Accordingly, our findings suggest that demographic resilience is a consequence of evolutionary processes and/or deep-time environmental regimes, rather than recent-past experiences.

Independently evolved pollution resistance in four killifish populations is largely explained by few variants of large effect

The genetic architecture of phenotypic traits can affect the mode and tempo of trait evolution. Human-altered environments can impose strong natural selection, where successful evolutionary adaptation requires swift and large phenotypic shifts. In these scenarios, theory predicts the influence of few adaptive variants of large effect, but empirical studies that have revealed the genetic architecture of rapidly evolved phenotypes are rare, especially for populations inhabiting polluted environments. Fundulus killifish have repeatedly evolved adaptive resistance to extreme pollution in urban estuaries. Prior studies, including genome scans for signatures of natural selection, have revealed some of the genes and pathways important for evolved pollution resistance, and provide context for the genotype-phenotype association studies reported here. We created multiple quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping families using progenitors from four different resistant populations, and genetically mapped variation in sensitivity (developmental perturbations) following embryonic exposure to a model toxicant PCB-126. We found that a few large-effect QTL loci accounted for resistance to PCB-mediated developmental toxicity. QTLs harbored candidate genes that govern the regulation of aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) signaling, where some (but not all) of these QTL loci were shared across all populations, and some (but not all) of these loci showed signatures of recent natural selection in the corresponding wild population. Some strong candidate genes for PCB resistance inferred from genome scans in wild populations were identified as QTL, but some key candidate genes were not. We conclude that rapidly evolved resistance to the developmental defects normally caused by PCB-126 is governed by few genes of large effect. However, other aspects of resistance beyond developmental phenotypes may be governed by additional loci, such that comprehensive resistance to PCB-126, and to the mixtures of chemicals that distinguish urban estuaries more broadly, may be more genetically complex.

Assessing the role of family level variation and heat shock gene expression in the thermal stress response of the mosquito Aedes aegypti

The geographical range of the mosquito vector for many human disease-causing viruses, Aedes aegypti, is expanding, in part owing to changing climate. The capacity of this species to adapt to thermal stress will affect its future distributions. It is unclear how much heritable genetic variation may affect the upper thermal limits of mosquito populations over the long term. Nor are the genetic pathways that confer thermal tolerance fully understood. In the short term, cells induce a plastic, protective response known as 'heat shock'. Using a physiological 'knockdown' assay, we investigated mosquito thermal tolerance to characterize the genetic architecture of the trait. While families representing the extreme ends of the distribution for knockdown time differed from one another, the trait exhibited low but non-zero broad-sense heritability. We then explored whether families representing thermal performance extremes differed in their heat shock response by measuring gene expression of heat shock protein-encoding genes Hsp26, Hsp83 and Hsp70. Contrary to prediction, the families with higher thermal tolerance demonstrated less Hsp expression. This pattern may indicate that other mechanisms of heat tolerance, rather than heat shock, may underpin the stress response, and the costly production of HSPs may instead signal poor adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Facilitated Adaptation as A Conservation Tool in the Present Climate Change Context: A Methodological Guide

Climate change poses a novel threat to biodiversity that urgently requires the development of adequate conservation strategies. Living organisms respond to environmental change by migrating to locations where their ecological niche is preserved or by adapting to the new environment. While the first response has been used to develop, discuss and implement the strategy of assisted migration, facilitated adaptation is only beginning to be considered as a potential approach. Here, we present a review of the conceptual framework for facilitated adaptation, integrating advances and methodologies from different disciplines. Briefly, facilitated adaptation involves a population reinforcement that introduces beneficial alleles to enable the evolutionary adaptation of a focal population to pressing environmental conditions. To this purpose, we propose two methodological approaches. The first one (called pre-existing adaptation approach) is based on using pre-adapted genotypes existing in the focal population, in other populations, or even in closely related species. The second approach (called de novo adaptation approach) aims to generate new pre-adapted genotypes from the diversity present in the species through artificial selection. For each approach, we present a stage-by-stage procedure, with some techniques that can be used for its implementation. The associated risks and difficulties of each approach are also discussed.

Evolutionary rescue and geographic range shifts under climate change for global amphibians

By the end of this century, human-induced climate change and habitat loss may drastically reduce biodiversity, with expected effects on many amphibian lineages. One of these effects is the shift in the geographic distributions of species when tracking suitable climates. Here, we employ a macroecological approach to dynamically model geographic range shifts by coupling ecological niche models and eco-evolutionary mechanisms, aiming to assess the probability of evolutionary rescue (i.e., rapid adaptation) and dispersal under climate change. Evolutionary models estimated the probability of population persistence by adapting to changes in the temperature influenced by precipitation in the following decades, while compensating the fitness reduction and maintaining viable populations in the new climates. In addition, we evaluated emerging patterns of species richness and turnover at the assemblage level. Our approach was able to identify which amphibian populations among 7,193 species at the global scale could adapt to temperature changes or disperse into suitable regions in the future. Without evolutionary adaptation and dispersal, 47.7% of the species could go extinct until the year 2,100, whereas adding both processes will slightly decrease this extinction rate to 36.5%. Although adaptation to climate is possible for populations in about 25.7% of species, evolutionary rescue is the only possibility to avoid extinction in 4.2% of them. Dispersal will allow geographic range shifts for 49.7% of species, but only 6.5% may avoid extinction by reaching climatically suitable environments. This reconfiguration of species distributions and their persistence creates new assemblage-level patterns at the local scale. Temporal beta-diversity across the globe showed relatively low levels of species turnover, mainly due to the loss of species. Despite limitations with obtaining data, our approach provides more realistic assessments of species responses to ongoing climate changes. It shows that, although dispersal and evolutionary rescue may attenuate species losses, they are not enough to avoid a significant reduction of species’ geographic ranges in the future. Actions that guarantee a higher potential of adaptation (e.g., genetic diversity through larger population sizes) and increased connectivity for species dispersion to track suitable climates become essential, increasing the resilience of biodiversity to climate change.

Acclimatization of a coral-dinoflagellate mutualism at a CO2 vent

Ocean acidification caused by shifts in ocean carbonate chemistry resulting from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations is threatening many calcifying organisms, including corals. Here we assessed autotrophy vs heterotrophy shifts in the Mediterranean zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Balanophyllia europaea acclimatized to low pH/high pCO2 conditions at a CO2 vent off Panarea Island (Italy). Dinoflagellate endosymbiont densities were higher at lowest pH Sites where changes in the distribution of distinct haplotypes of a host-specific symbiont species, Philozoon balanophyllum, were observed. An increase in symbiont C/N ratios was observed at low pH, likely as a result of increased C fixation by higher symbiont cell densities. δ13C values of the symbionts and host tissue reached similar values at the lowest pH Site, suggesting an increased influence of autotrophy with increasing acidification. Host tissue δ15N values of 0‰ strongly suggest that diazotroph N2 fixation is occurring within the coral tissue/mucus at the low pH Sites, likely explaining the decrease in host tissue C/N ratios with acidification. Overall, our findings show an acclimatization of this coral-dinoflagellate mutualism through trophic adjustment and symbiont haplotype differences with increasing acidification, highlighting that some corals are capable of acclimatizing to ocean acidification predicted under end-of-century scenarios.

Tolerance of an acute warming challenge declines with body mass in Nile tilapia: evidence of a link to capacity for oxygen uptake

It has been proposed that larger individuals within fish species may be more sensitive to global warming, due to limitations in their capacity to provide oxygen for aerobic metabolic activities. This could affect size distributions of populations in a warmer world but evidence is lacking. In Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus (n=18, mass range 21 - 313g), capacity to provide oxygen for aerobic activities (aerobic scope) was independent of mass at an acclimation temperature of 26 °C. Tolerance of acute warming, however, declined significantly with mass when evaluated as the critical temperature for fatigue from aerobic swimming (CTSmax). The CTSmax protocol challenges a fish to meet the oxygen demands of constant aerobic exercise while their demands for basal metabolism are accelerated by incremental warming, culminating in fatigue. CTSmax elicited pronounced increases in oxygen uptake in the tilapia but the maximum rates achieved prior to fatigue declined very significantly with mass. Mass-related variation in CTSmax and maximum oxygen uptake rates were positively correlated, which may indicate a causal relationship. When fish populations are faced with acute thermal stress, larger individuals may become constrained in their ability to perform aerobic activities at lower temperatures than smaller conspecifics. This could affect survival and fitness of larger fish in a future world with more frequent and extreme heatwaves, with consequences for population productivity.

A limit on the evolutionary rescue of an Antarctic bacterium from rising temperatures

Climate change is gradual, but it can also cause brief extreme heat waves that can exceed the upper thermal limit of any one organism. To study the evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance, we evolved the cold-adapted Antarctic bacterium Pseudoalteromonas haloplanktis to survive at 30°C, beyond its ancestral thermal limit. This high-temperature adaptation occurred rapidly and in multiple populations. It involved genomic changes that occurred in a highly parallel fashion and mitigated the effects of protein misfolding. However, it also confronted a physiological limit, because populations failed to grow beyond 30°C. Our experiments aimed to facilitate evolutionary rescue by using a small organism with large populations living at temperatures several degrees below their upper thermal limit. Larger organisms with smaller populations and living at temperatures closer to their upper thermal tolerances are even more likely to go extinct during extreme heat waves.

The role of spatial structure in multi-deme models of evolutionary rescue

Genetic variation and population sizes are critical factors for successful adaptation to novel environmental conditions. Gene flow between sub-populations is a potent mechanism to provide such variation and can hence facilitate adaptation, for instance by increasing genetic variation or via the introduction of beneficial variants. On the other hand, if gene flow between different habitats is too strong, locally beneficial alleles may not be able to establish permanently. In the context of evolutionary rescue, intermediate levels of gene flow are therefore often optimal for maximizing a species chance for survival in metapopulations without spatial structure. To which extent and under which conditions gene flow facilitates or hinders evolutionary rescue in spatially structured populations remains unresolved. We address this question by studying the differences between evolutionary rescue in the island model and in the stepping stone model in a gradually deteriorating habitat. We show that evolutionary rescue is modulated by the rate of gene flow between different habitats, which in turn depends strongly on the spatial structure and the pattern of environmental deterioration. We use these insights to show that in many cases spatially structured models can be translated into a simpler island model using an appropriately scaled effective migration rate.

Contamination effects on sexual selection in wild dung beetles

Sexual selection influences the expression of secondary sexual traits, which are costly to produce and maintain and are thus considered honest indicators of individual condition. Therefore, sexual selection could select for high-quality individuals able to respond to stressful conditions, with impacts on population-level fitness. We sampled dung beetles from 19 pastures and investigated if contamination by herbicides and veterinary drugs modifies male investment in sexually selected traits and has associated population-level effects. We measured horn size, condition dependence (i.e. size-corrected body mass) and allometry, besides abundance and sexual size dimorphism in three species: Copris incertus, Euoniticellus intermedius and Digitonthophagus gazella. In contrary to our expectations, horn size was independent of contamination and individual condition. However, strong positive allometric relationships were reduced by herbicide contamination for C. incertus and D. gazella and were increased by ivermectin for C. incertus, revealing differential investment in horn production according to body size in contaminated habitats. At the population level, large-horned C. incertus males were more abundant in contaminated pastures, potentially revealing a case of evolutionary rescue by sexual selection or a plastic response to higher population densities. Finally, chemical compounds affected the sexual size dimorphism of all three species, with potential effects on female fecundity or intrasexual selection. Together, our findings indicate that contamination interferes with sexual selection processes in the wild, opening new questions regarding the role of sexual selection in favouring species persistence in contaminated environments.

On the genetic architecture of rapidly adapting and convergent life history traits in guppies

The genetic basis of traits shapes and constrains how adaptation proceeds in nature; rapid adaptation can proceed using stores of polygenic standing genetic variation or hard selective sweeps, and increasing polygenicity fuels genetic redundancy, reducing gene re-use (genetic convergence). Guppy life history traits evolve rapidly and convergently among natural high- and low-predation environments in northern Trinidad. This system has been studied extensively at the phenotypic level, but little is known about the underlying genetic architecture. Here, we use four independent F2 QTL crosses to examine the genetic basis of seven (five female, two male) guppy life history phenotypes and discuss how these genetic architectures may facilitate or constrain rapid adaptation and convergence. We use RAD-sequencing data (16,539 SNPs) from 370 male and 267 female F2 individuals. We perform linkage mapping, estimates of genome-wide and per-chromosome heritability (multi-locus associations), and QTL mapping (single-locus associations). Our results are consistent with architectures of many loci of small-effect for male age and size at maturity and female interbrood period. Male trait associations are clustered on specific chromosomes, but female interbrood period exhibits a weak genome-wide signal suggesting a potentially highly polygenic component. Offspring weight and female size at maturity are also associated with a single significant QTL each. These results suggest rapid, repeatable phenotypic evolution of guppies may be facilitated by polygenic trait architectures, but subsequent genetic redundancy may limit gene re-use across populations, in agreement with an absence of strong signatures of genetic convergence from recent analyses of wild guppies.

Host traits and environment interact to determine persistence of bat populations impacted by white-nose syndrome

Emerging infectious diseases have resulted in severe population declines across diverse taxa. In some instances, despite attributes associated with high extinction risk, disease emergence and host declines are followed by host stabilisation for unknown reasons. While host, pathogen, and the environment are recognised as important factors that interact to determine host-pathogen coexistence, they are often considered independently. Here, we use a translocation experiment to disentangle the role of host traits and environmental conditions in driving the persistence of remnant bat populations a decade after they declined 70-99% due to white-nose syndrome and subsequently stabilised. While survival was significantly higher than during the initial epidemic within all sites, protection from severe disease only existed within a narrow environmental space, suggesting host traits conducive to surviving disease are highly environmentally dependent. Ultimately, population persistence following pathogen invasion is the product of host-pathogen interactions that vary across a patchwork of environments.

Repeated origins, widespread gene flow, and allelic interactions of target-site herbicide resistance mutations

Causal mutations and their frequency in agricultural fields are well-characterized for herbicide resistance. However, we still lack understanding of their evolutionary history: the extent of parallelism in the origins of target-site resistance (TSR), how long these mutations persist, how quickly they spread, and allelic interactions that mediate their selective advantage. We addressed these questions with genomic data from 19 agricultural populations of common waterhemp (Amaranthus tuberculatus), which we show to have undergone a massive expansion over the past century, with a contemporary effective population size estimate of 8 x 10⁷. We found variation at seven characterized TSR loci, two of which had multiple amino acid substitutions, and three of which were common. These three common resistance variants show extreme parallelism in their mutational origins, with gene flow having shaped their distribution across the landscape. Allele age estimates supported a strong role of adaptation from de novo mutations, with a median age of 30 suggesting that most resistance alleles arose soon after the onset of herbicide use. However, resistant lineages varied in both their age and evidence for selection over two different timescales, implying considerable heterogeneity in the forces that govern their persistence. Two such forces are intra- and inter-locus allelic interactions; we report a signal of extended haplotype competition between two common TSR alleles, and extreme linkage with genome-wide alleles with known functions in resistance adaptation. Together, this work reveals a remarkable example of spatial parallel evolution in a metapopulation, with important implications for the management of herbicide resistance.

Genotype diversity promotes the persistence of Daphnia populations exposed to severe copper stress

When environmental stressors of high intensity are sustained for long periods of time, populations face high probabilities of being extirpated. However, depending on the intensity of the stressor, large populations with sufficient genetic diversity may persist. We report the results of an experiment that tracked the persistence of Daphnia populations exposed to copper contamination. We assessed whether genotypic diversity reduced the risk of extinction. We created monoclonal and multiclonal populations and monitored their population sizes during a 32-week experiment. Cu was applied at a sub-lethal concentration and then increased every week until the population sizes dropped to about 10% of the carrying capacity (Cu at 180 μg/L). The concentration was then increased up to 186 μg/L and held stable until the end of the experiment. A survival analysis showed that clonal diversity extended the persistence of Daphnia populations, but copper contamination caused a substantial genetic erosion followed by population extirpation. However, some Cu-treated populations, mostly multiclonal, showed U-shaped patterns of growth consistent with evolutionary rescue but these did not lead to lasting population recovery. These results highlight the importance of genetic variation for population persistence, but they also show how quickly it can be lost in contaminated environments.

Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

The transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how indirect evolutionary rescue—due to the rapid evolution of a predator’s trait—can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

Evolutionary conservatism will limit responses to climate change in the tropics

Rapid species turnover in tropical mountains has fascinated biologists for centuries. A popular explanation for this heightened beta diversity is that climatic stability at low latitudes promotes the evolution of narrow thermal tolerance ranges, leading to local adaptation, evolutionary divergence and parapatric speciation along elevational gradients. However, an emerging consensus from research spanning phylogenetics, biogeography and behavioural ecology is that this process rarely, if ever, occurs. Instead, closely related species typically occupy a similar elevational niche, while species with divergent elevational niches tend to be more distantly related. These results suggest populations have responded to past environmental change not by adapting and diverging in place, but instead by shifting their distributions to tightly track climate over time. We argue that tropical species are likely to respond similarly to ongoing and future climate warming, an inference supported by evidence from recent range shifts. In the absence of widespread in situ adaptation to new climate regimes by tropical taxa, conservation planning should prioritize protecting large swaths of habitat to facilitate movement.

Impacts of salinization on aquatic communities: Abrupt vs. gradual exposures

Increasing chloride concentrations from road salt applications are an emerging threat to freshwater diversity in cold weather regions. Few studies have focused on how road salt affects freshwater biota and even fewer have focused on how the rate of exposure alters organism responses. We hypothesized that road salt concentrations delivered gradually would result in slower population declines and more rapid rebounds due to evolved tolerance. To test this hypothesis, we examined the responses of freshwater lake organisms to four environmentally relevant salt concentrations (100, 230, 860, and 1600 mg Cl^-/L) that differed in application rate (abrupt vs. gradual). We used outdoor aquatic mesocosms containing zooplankton, filamentous algae, phytoplankton, periphyton, and macroinvertebrates. We found negative effects of road salt on zooplankton and macroinvertebrate abundance, but positive effects on phytoplankton and periphyton, likely resulting from reduced grazing. Only rarely did we detect a difference between abrupt vs gradual salt applications and the directions of those differences were not consistent. This affirms the need for additional research on how road salt pollution entering ecosystems at different frequencies and magnitudes will alter freshwater communities.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Seasonal and environmental effects on upper thermal limits of eastern sand darter (Ammocrypta pellucida)

Anthropogenic stressors are predicted to increase water temperature, which can influence physiological, individual, and population processes in fishes. We assessed the critical thermal maximum (CT_max) of eastern sand darter (Ammocrypta pellucida), a small benthic fish listed as threatened under the Species at Risk Act in Canada. Field trials were conducted stream side June-November 2019 in the Grand River, Ontario, to encompass a range of ambient water temperatures (7-25°C) for which agitation temperature (T_ag) and CT_max were determined. Additional measures were taken in the comparatively more turbid Thames River to test the effect of turbidity on both measures. In the Grand, T_ag and CT_max ranged from 23°C to 33°C and 27°C to 37°C, respectively, and both significantly increased with ambient water temperature, with a high acclimation response ratio (0.49). The thermal safety margin (difference between ambient temperatures and CT_max) was smallest in July and August (~11°C) indicating that eastern sand darter lives closer to its physiological limit in summer. The between-river comparison indicated that turbidity had no significant influence on T_ag and CT_max. Comparison of CT_max with in-river temperatures suggested that mean stream temperature 24 hours before the trial was most important for determining CT_max. Fish mass, temperature variance and maximum temperature in the 24-hour period prior to the CT_max trial were also shown to have some effect on determining CT_max. Overall, study results better define the sensitivity of eastern sand darter to temperature changes across the growing season and provide information to assess the availability of suitable thermal habitat for conservation purposes.

Host adaptation to novel pathogen introduction: Predicting conditions that promote evolutionary rescue

Novel pathogen introduction can have drastic consequences for naive host populations, and outcomes can be difficult to predict. Evolutionary rescue (ER) provides a foundation for understanding whether hosts are driven to extinction or survive via adaptation. Currently, patterns of host population dynamics alongside evidence of adaptation are used to infer ER. However, the gap between established ER theory and complexity inherent in natural systems makes interpreting empirical patterns difficult because they can be confounded with ecological drivers of survival under current theory. To bridge this gap, we expand ER theory to include biological selective agents, such as pathogens. We find birth processes to be more important than previously theorised in determining ER potential. We employ a novel framework evaluating ER potential within natural systems and gain ability to identify system characteristics that make ER possible. Identifying these characteristics allows a shift from retrospective observation to a predictive mindset, and our findings suggest that ER occurrence may be more limited than previously thought. We use the plague system of Yersinia pestis infecting Cynomys ludovicianus (black-tailed prairie dogs) and Spermophilus beecheyi (California ground squirrels) as a case study.

Adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity in changing environments: Implications for sexual species with different life history strategies

Populations adapt to novel environmental conditions by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity. Plastic responses are generally faster and can buffer fitness losses under variable conditions. Plasticity is typically modeled as random noise and linear reaction norms that assume simple one-to-one genotype-phenotype maps and no limits to the phenotypic response. Most studies on plasticity have focused on its effect on population viability. However, it is not clear, whether the advantage of plasticity depends solely on environmental fluctuations or also on the genetic and demographic properties (life histories) of populations. Here we present an individual-based model and study the relative importance of adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity for populations of sexual species with different life histories experiencing directional stochastic climate change. Environmental fluctuations were simulated using differentially autocorrelated climatic stochasticity or noise color, and scenarios of directional climate change. Nonadaptive plasticity was simulated as a random environmental effect on trait development, while adaptive plasticity as a linear, saturating, or sinusoidal reaction norm. The last two imposed limits to the plastic response and emphasized flexible interactions of the genotype with the environment. Interestingly, this assumption led to (a) smaller phenotypic than genotypic variance in the population (many-to-one genotype-phenotype map) and the coexistence of polymorphisms, and (b) the maintenance of higher genetic variation-compared to linear reaction norms and genetic determinism-even when the population was exposed to a constant environment for several generations. Limits to plasticity led to genetic accommodation, when costs were negligible, and to the appearance of cryptic variation when limits were exceeded. We found that adaptive plasticity promoted population persistence under red environmental noise and was particularly important for life histories with low fecundity. Populations producing more offspring could cope with environmental fluctuations solely by genetic changes or random plasticity, unless environmental change was too fast.