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Ullah H, Fordham DA, Goldenberg SU, Nagelkerken I. Combining mesocosms with models reveals effects of global warming and ocean acidification on a temperate marine ecosystem. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2024; 34:e2977. [PMID: 38706047 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2977] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2023] [Accepted: 12/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/07/2024]
Abstract
Ocean warming and species exploitation have already caused large-scale reorganization of biological communities across the world. Accurate projections of future biodiversity change require a comprehensive understanding of how entire communities respond to global change. We combined a time-dynamic integrated food web modeling approach (Ecosim) with previous data from community-level mesocosm experiments to determine the independent and combined effects of ocean warming, ocean acidification and fisheries exploitation on a well-managed temperate coastal ecosystem. The mesocosm parameters enabled important physiological and behavioral responses to climate stressors to be projected for trophic levels ranging from primary producers to top predators, including sharks. Through model simulations, we show that under sustainable rates of fisheries exploitation, near-future warming or ocean acidification in isolation could benefit species biomass at higher trophic levels (e.g., mammals, birds, and demersal finfish) in their current climate ranges, with the exception of small pelagic fishes. However, under warming and acidification combined, biomass increases at higher trophic levels will be lower or absent, while in the longer term reduced productivity of prey species is unlikely to support the increased biomass at the top of the food web. We also show that increases in exploitation will suppress any positive effects of human-driven climate change, causing individual species biomass to decrease at higher trophic levels. Nevertheless, total future potential biomass of some fisheries species in temperate areas might remain high, particularly under acidification, because unharvested opportunistic species will likely benefit from decreased competition and show an increase in biomass. Ecological indicators of species composition such as the Shannon diversity index decline under all climate change scenarios, suggesting a trade-off between biomass gain and functional diversity. By coupling parameters from multilevel mesocosm food web experiments with dynamic food web models, we were able to simulate the generative mechanisms that drive complex responses of temperate marine ecosystems to global change. This approach, which blends theory with experimental data, provides new prospects for forecasting climate-driven biodiversity change and its effects on ecosystem processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hadayet Ullah
- Southern Seas Ecology Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Silvan U Goldenberg
- Southern Seas Ecology Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
| | - Ivan Nagelkerken
- Southern Seas Ecology Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- The Environment Institute, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
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2
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Thorpe RB. We need to talk about the role of zooplankton in marine food webs. JOURNAL OF FISH BIOLOGY 2024. [PMID: 38777334 DOI: 10.1111/jfb.15773] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2023] [Revised: 04/02/2024] [Accepted: 04/11/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
Zooplankton are the key intermediary between primary production and the fish community and a cornerstone of marine food webs, but they are often poorly represented in models that tend to focus on fish, charismatic top predators, or ocean biogeochemistry. In this study, we use an intermediate complexity end-to-end food web model of the North Sea with explicit two-way coupling of zooplankton to phytoplankton and higher trophic levels to ask whether this matters. We vary the metabolic rate of omnivorous zooplankton (OZ) as a proxy for uncertainties in our understanding and modeling of zooplankton form and function, and moving beyond previous studies we look at the impacts on the food web in concert with climate warming and fishing. We consider impacts on food web state and time to recover the relevant unfished state after fishing ceases. We also consider potential impacts on pelagic and demersal fishing fleets if we assume that they are constrained by the requirement to allow recovery to an unfished state within a certain period of time as a way of ensuring consistency with Good Environmental Status as required by EU and UK legislation. We find that all three aspects considered are highly sensitive to changes in the treatment of zooplankton, with impacts being larger than for warming of 2 or 4°C across most food web functional groups, particularly for apex predators. We call for a programme of research aimed at improving our understanding of zooplankton ecology and its relationship to the wider food web, and we recommend that improved representations of zooplankton are incorporated in future modeling studies as a priority.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert B Thorpe
- Department of Fisheries Ecosystems and Management Advice (FEMA), Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Pakefield, Lowestoft, Suffolk, UK
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3
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Budnik RR, Frank KT, Collis LM, Fraker ME, Mason LA, Muir AM, Pothoven SA, Clapp DF, Collingsworth PD, Hoffman JC, Hood JM, Johnson TB, Koops MA, Rudstam LG, Ludsin SA. Feasibility of implementing an integrated long-term database to advance ecosystem-based management in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. JOURNAL OF GREAT LAKES RESEARCH 2024; 50:1-13. [PMID: 38783923 PMCID: PMC11110652 DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2024.102308] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
The North American Great Lakes have been experiencing dramatic change during the past half-century, highlighting the need for holistic, ecosystem-based approaches to management. To assess interest in ecosystem-based management (EBM), including the value of a comprehensive public database that could serve as a repository for the numerous physical, chemical, and biological monitoring Great Lakes datasets that exist, a two-day workshop was organized, which was attended by 40+ Great Lakes researchers, managers, and stakeholders. While we learned during the workshop that EBM is not an explicit mission of many of the participating research, monitoring, and management agencies, most have been conducting research or monitoring activities that can support EBM. These contributions have ranged from single-resource (-sector) management to considering the ecosystem holistically in a decision-making framework. Workshop participants also identified impediments to implementing EBM, including: 1) high anticipated costs; 2) a lack of EBM success stories to garner agency buy-in; and 3) difficulty in establishing common objectives among groups with different mandates (e.g., water quality vs. fisheries production). We discussed as a group solutions to overcome these impediments, including construction of a comprehensive, research-ready database, a prototype of which was presented at the workshop. We collectively felt that such a database would offer a cost-effective means to support EBM approaches by facilitating research that could help identify useful ecosystem indicators and management targets and allow for management strategy evaluations that account for risk and uncertainty when contemplating future decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard R. Budnik
- Aquatic Ecology Laboratory, Department of Evolution,
Ecology, and Organismal Biology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43212,
USA
| | - Kenneth T. Frank
- Ocean Sciences Division, Bedford Institute of Oceanography,
Dartmouth, NS B2Y 4A2, Canada
- Department of Biology, Queen’s University, Kingston,
ON K7L 3N6, Canada
| | - Lyndsie M. Collis
- Aquatic Ecology Laboratory, Department of Evolution,
Ecology, and Organismal Biology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43212,
USA
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great
Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA
| | - Michael E. Fraker
- Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research (CIGLR) and
Michigan Sea Grant, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA
| | - Lacey A. Mason
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great
Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA
| | - Andrew M. Muir
- Great Lakes Fishery Commission, Ann Arbor, MI 48105,
USA
| | - Steven A. Pothoven
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great
Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Lake Michigan Field Station, Muskegon, MI
49441, USA
| | - David F. Clapp
- Charlevoix Fisheries Research Station, Michigan Department
of Natural Resources, Charlevoix, Michigan,49720, USA
| | - Paris D. Collingsworth
- Department of Forestry and Natural Resources and
Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA
| | - Joel C. Hoffman
- United State Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Research and Development, Great Lakes Toxicology and Ecology Division, Duluth,
Minnesota, 55804, USA
| | - James M. Hood
- Aquatic Ecology Laboratory, Department of Evolution,
Ecology, and Organismal Biology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43212,
USA
- Translational Data Analytics Institute, The Ohio State
University, Columbus, Ohio 43212 USA
| | - Timothy B. Johnson
- Ontario Ministry of Northern Development, Mines, Natural
Resources and Forestry, Glenora Fisheries Station, Pickton, ON, Canada, K0K
2T0
| | - Marten A. Koops
- Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Burlington, ON L7S 1A1,
Canada
| | - Lars G. Rudstam
- Department of Natural Resources and the Environment,
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Stuart A. Ludsin
- Aquatic Ecology Laboratory, Department of Evolution,
Ecology, and Organismal Biology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43212,
USA
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4
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Kindsvater HK, Juan‐Jordá M, Dulvy NK, Horswill C, Matthiopoulos J, Mangel M. Size-dependence of food intake and mortality interact with temperature and seasonality to drive diversity in fish life histories. Evol Appl 2024; 17:e13646. [PMID: 38333556 PMCID: PMC10848883 DOI: 10.1111/eva.13646] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2023] [Revised: 12/06/2023] [Accepted: 01/05/2024] [Indexed: 02/10/2024] Open
Abstract
Understanding how growth and reproduction will adapt to changing environmental conditions is a fundamental question in evolutionary ecology, but predicting the responses of specific taxa is challenging. Analyses of the physiological effects of climate change upon life history evolution rarely consider alternative hypothesized mechanisms, such as size-dependent foraging and the risk of predation, simultaneously shaping optimal growth patterns. To test for interactions between these mechanisms, we embedded a state-dependent energetic model in an ecosystem size-spectrum to ask whether prey availability (foraging) and risk of predation experienced by individual fish can explain observed diversity in life histories of fishes. We found that asymptotic growth emerged from size-based foraging and reproductive and mortality patterns in the context of ecosystem food web interactions. While more productive ecosystems led to larger body sizes, the effects of temperature on metabolic costs had only small effects on size. To validate our model, we ran it for abiotic scenarios corresponding to the ecological lifestyles of three tuna species, considering environments that included seasonal variation in temperature. We successfully predicted realistic patterns of growth, reproduction, and mortality of all three tuna species. We found that individuals grew larger when environmental conditions varied seasonally, and spawning was restricted to part of the year (corresponding to their migration from temperate to tropical waters). Growing larger was advantageous because foraging and spawning opportunities were seasonally constrained. This mechanism could explain the evolution of gigantism in temperate tunas. Our approach addresses variation in food availability and individual risk as well as metabolic processes and offers a promising approach to understand fish life-history responses to changing ocean conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Holly K. Kindsvater
- Department of Fish and Wildlife ConservationVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityBlacksburgVirginiaUSA
| | - Maria‐José Juan‐Jordá
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological SciencesSimon Fraser UniversityBurnabyBritish ColumbiaCanada
- AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA)GipuzkoaSpain
- Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO‐CSIC), Centro Oceanográfico de MadridMadridSpain
| | - Nicholas K. Dulvy
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological SciencesSimon Fraser UniversityBurnabyBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Cat Horswill
- ZSL Institute of ZoologyLondonUK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environmental Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and EnvironmentUniversity College LondonLondonUK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary MedicineUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK
| | - Marc Mangel
- Theoretical Ecology Group, Department of BiologyUniversity of BergenBergenNorway
- Institute of Marine Sciences and Department of Applied Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of CaliforniaSanta CruzCaliforniaUSA
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5
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Atkinson A, Rossberg AG, Gaedke U, Sprules G, Heneghan RF, Batziakas S, Grigoratou M, Fileman E, Schmidt K, Frangoulis C. Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines. Nat Commun 2024; 15:381. [PMID: 38195697 PMCID: PMC10776571 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44406-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 01/11/2024] Open
Abstract
Under climate change, model ensembles suggest that declines in phytoplankton biomass amplify into greater reductions at higher trophic levels, with serious implications for fisheries and carbon storage. However, the extent and mechanisms of this trophic amplification vary greatly among models, and validation is problematic. In situ size spectra offer a novel alternative, comparing biomass of small and larger organisms to quantify the net efficiency of energy transfer through natural food webs that are already challenged with multiple climate change stressors. Our global compilation of pelagic size spectrum slopes supports trophic amplification empirically, independently from model simulations. Thus, even a modest (16%) decline in phytoplankton this century would magnify into a 38% decline in supportable biomass of fish within the intensively-fished mid-latitude ocean. We also show that this amplification stems not from thermal controls on consumers, but mainly from temperature or nutrient controls that structure the phytoplankton baseline of the food web. The lack of evidence for direct thermal effects on size structure contrasts with most current thinking, based often on more acute stress experiments or shorter-timescale responses. Our synthesis of size spectra integrates these short-term dynamics, revealing the net efficiency of food webs acclimating and adapting to climatic stressors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angus Atkinson
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth, PL13DH, UK.
| | - Axel G Rossberg
- School of Biological and Behavioural Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London, E1 4NS, UK
| | - Ursula Gaedke
- Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Gary Sprules
- Department of Biology, University of Toronto Mississauga, 3359 Mississauga Rd. N., Mississauga, ON, L5L 1C6, Canada
| | - Ryan F Heneghan
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Stratos Batziakas
- Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Former U.S. Base at Gournes, P.O. Box 2214, Heraklion GR-71003, Crete, Greece
| | | | - Elaine Fileman
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth, PL13DH, UK
| | - Katrin Schmidt
- University of Plymouth, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK
| | - Constantin Frangoulis
- Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Former U.S. Base at Gournes, P.O. Box 2214, Heraklion GR-71003, Crete, Greece
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6
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Dalpadado P, Roxy MK, Arrigo KR, van Dijken GL, Chierici M, Ostrowski M, Skern-Mauritzen R, Bakke G, Richardson AJ, Sperfeld E. Rapid climate change alters the environment and biological production of the Indian Ocean. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 906:167342. [PMID: 37758130 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167342] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2023] [Revised: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/03/2023]
Abstract
We synthesize and review the impacts of climate change on the physical, chemical, and biological environments of the Indian Ocean and discuss mitigating actions and knowledge gaps. The most recent climate scenarios identify with high certainty that the Indian Ocean (IO) is experiencing one of the fastest surface warming among the world's oceans. The area of surface waters of >28 °C (IO Warm Pool) has significantly increased during 1982-2021 by expanding into the northern-central basins. A significant decrease in pH and aragonite (building blocks of calcified organisms) levels in the IO was observed from 1981-2020 due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. There are also signals of decreasing trends in primary productivity in the north, likely related to enhanced stratification and nutrient depletion. Further, the rapid warming of the IO will manifest more extreme weather conditions along its adjacent continents and oceans, including marine heat waves that are likely to reshape biodiversity. However, the impact of climate change beyond the unprecedented warming, increase in marine heat waves, expansion of the IO Warm Pool, and decrease in pH, remains uncertain for many other key variables in the IO including changes in salinity, oxygen, and net primary production. Understanding the response of these physical, chemical, and biological variables to climate change is vital to project future changes in regional fisheries and identify mitigation actions. We accordingly conclude by identifying knowledge gaps and recommending directions for sustainable fisheries and climate impact studies.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Mathew Koll Roxy
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, India
| | - Kevin R Arrigo
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Gert L van Dijken
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | | | - Marek Ostrowski
- Institute of Marine Research, PO Box 1870, 5817 Bergen, Norway
| | | | - Gunnstein Bakke
- Directorate of Fisheries, Strandgaten 229, 5804 Bergen, Norway
| | - Anthony J Richardson
- School of the Environment, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, 4072, QLD, Australia; CSIRO Environment, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, 4067, Queensland, Australia
| | - Erik Sperfeld
- Animal Ecology, Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Loitzer Str. 26, 17489 Greifswald, Germany
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7
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Audzijonyte A, Delius GW, Stuart-Smith RD, Novaglio C, Edgar GJ, Barrett NS, Blanchard JL. Changes in sea floor productivity are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change in temperate coastal ecosystems according to a new size-based model. PLoS Biol 2023; 21:e3002392. [PMID: 38079442 PMCID: PMC10712853 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3002392] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2022] [Accepted: 10/19/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023] Open
Abstract
The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems but often are considered in isolation, leaving our understanding of interactions between these drivers of ecosystem change relatively poor. This is particularly true for shallow coastal ecosystems, which are fuelled by a combination of distinct pelagic and benthic energy pathways that may respond to climate change in fundamentally distinct ways. The fish production supported by these systems is likely to be impacted by climate change differently to those of offshore and shelf ecosystems, which have relatively simpler food webs and mostly lack benthic primary production sources. We developed a novel, multispecies size spectrum model for shallow coastal reefs, specifically designed to simulate potential interactive outcomes of changing benthic and pelagic energy inputs and temperatures and calculate the relative importance of these variables for the fish community. Our model, calibrated using field data from an extensive temperate reef monitoring program, predicts that changes in resource levels will have much stronger impacts on fish biomass and yields than changes driven by physiological responses to temperature. Under increased plankton abundance, species in all fish trophic groups were predicted to increase in biomass, average size, and yields. By contrast, changes in benthic resources produced variable responses across fish trophic groups. Increased benthic resources led to increasing benthivorous and piscivorous fish biomasses, yields, and mean body sizes, but biomass decreases among herbivore and planktivore species. When resource changes were combined with warming seas, physiological responses generally decreased species' biomass and yields. Our results suggest that understanding changes in benthic production and its implications for coastal fisheries should be a priority research area. Our modified size spectrum model provides a framework for further study of benthic and pelagic energy pathways that can be easily adapted to other ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Asta Audzijonyte
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Gustav W. Delius
- Department of Mathematics, University of York, York, United Kingdom
| | - Rick D. Stuart-Smith
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Graham J. Edgar
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Neville S. Barrett
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
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8
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Le Grix N, Cheung WL, Reygondeau G, Zscheischler J, Frölicher TL. Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:6478-6492. [PMID: 37815723 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16968] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Revised: 09/13/2023] [Accepted: 09/14/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
Ocean extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, can have harmful impacts on marine ecosystems. Understanding the risks posed by such extreme events is key to develop strategies to predict and mitigate their effects. However, the underlying ocean conditions driving severe impacts on marine ecosystems are complex and often unknown as risks to marine ecosystems arise not only from hazards but also from the interactions between hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Marine ecosystems may not be impacted by extreme events in single drivers but rather by the compounding effects of moderate ocean anomalies. Here, we employ an ensemble climate-impact modeling approach that combines a global marine fish model with output from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model, to identify the key ocean ecosystem drivers associated with the most severe impacts on the total biomass of 326 pelagic fish species. We show that low net primary productivity is the most influential driver of extremely low fish biomass over 68% of the ocean area considered by the model, especially in the subtropics and the mid-latitudes, followed by high temperature and low oxygen in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the high latitudes. Severe biomass loss is generally driven by extreme anomalies in at least one ocean ecosystem driver, except in the tropics, where a combination of moderate ocean anomalies is sufficient to drive extreme impacts. Single moderate anomalies never drive extremely low fish biomass. Compound events with either moderate or extreme ocean conditions are a necessary condition for extremely low fish biomass over 78% of the global ocean, and compound events with at least one extreme variable are a necessary condition over 61% of the global ocean. Overall, our model results highlight the crucial role of extreme and compound events in driving severe impacts on pelagic marine ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natacha Le Grix
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - William L Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Jakob Zscheischler
- Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
- Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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9
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Guibourd de Luzinais V, du Pontavice H, Reygondeau G, Barrier N, Blanchard JL, Bornarel V, Büchner M, Cheung WWL, Eddy TD, Everett JD, Guiet J, Harrison CS, Maury O, Novaglio C, Petrik CM, Steenbeek J, Tittensor DP, Gascuel D. Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0287570. [PMID: 37611010 PMCID: PMC10446190 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287570] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2022] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 08/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090-2099 relative to 1995-2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the world's oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the world's oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the world's oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais
- UMR Dynamics and Sustainability of Ecosystems: From Source to Sea (DECOD), Institut Agro, Ifremer, INRAE, Rennes, France
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Hubert du Pontavice
- UMR Dynamics and Sustainability of Ecosystems: From Source to Sea (DECOD), Institut Agro, Ifremer, INRAE, Rennes, France
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States of America
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Virginie Bornarel
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Matthias Büchner
- Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Tyler D. Eddy
- Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University, St. John’s, NL, Canada
| | - Jason D. Everett
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
- Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Environment, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
| | - Jerome Guiet
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States of America
| | - Cheryl S. Harrison
- Department of Coastal and Ocean Science and Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States of America
| | - Olivier Maury
- MARBEC, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Sète, France
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Colleen M. Petrik
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States of America
| | | | | | - Didier Gascuel
- UMR Dynamics and Sustainability of Ecosystems: From Source to Sea (DECOD), Institut Agro, Ifremer, INRAE, Rennes, France
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10
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Begum M, Masud MM, Alam L, Mokhtar MB, Amir AA. The impact of climate variables on marine fish production: an empirical evidence from Bangladesh based on autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:87923-87937. [PMID: 35819668 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-21845-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Several studies have highlighted the significant impact of climate change on agriculture. However, there have been little empirical enquiries into the impact of climate change on marine fish production, particularly in Bangladesh. Hence, this study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on marine fish production in Bangladesh using data from 1961 to 2019. Data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, the World Development Indicators, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used to describe the dynamic link between CO2 emissions, average temperature, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), rainfall, sunshine, wind and marine fish production. The ARDL approach to cointegration revealed that SST (β = 0.258), rainfall (β =0.297), and sunshine (β =0.663) significantly influence marine fish production at 1% and 10% levels in the short run and at 1% level in the long run. The results also found that average temperature has a significant negative impact on fish production in both short and long runs. On the other hand, CO2 emissions have a negative impact on marine fish production in the short run. Specifically, for every 1% rise in CO2 emissions, marine fish production will decline by 0.11%. The findings of this study suggest that policymakers formulate better policy frameworks for climate change adaptation and sustainable management of marine fisheries at the national level. Research and development in Bangladesh's fisheries sector should also focus on marine fish species that can resist high sea surface temperatures, CO2 emissions, and average temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahfuza Begum
- The Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), The National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Muhammad Mehedi Masud
- Department of Development Studies, Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Lubna Alam
- The Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), The National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia.
| | - Mazlin Bin Mokhtar
- The Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), The National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Ahmad Aldrie Amir
- The Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), The National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
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11
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Lindmark M, Audzijonyte A, Blanchard JL, Gårdmark A. Temperature impacts on fish physiology and resource abundance lead to faster growth but smaller fish sizes and yields under warming. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:6239-6253. [PMID: 35822557 PMCID: PMC9804230 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2021] [Revised: 05/28/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Resolving the combined effect of climate warming and exploitation in a food web context is key for predicting future biomass production, size-structure and potential yields of marine fishes. Previous studies based on mechanistic size-based food web models have found that bottom-up processes are important drivers of size-structure and fisheries yield in changing climates. However, we know less about the joint effects of 'bottom-up' and physiological effects of temperature; how do temperature effects propagate from individual-level physiology through food webs and alter the size-structure of exploited species in a community? Here, we assess how a species-resolved size-based food web is affected by warming through both these pathways and by exploitation. We parameterize a dynamic size spectrum food web model inspired by the offshore Baltic Sea food web, and investigate how individual growth rates, size-structure, and relative abundances of species and yields are affected by warming. The magnitude of warming is based on projections by the regional coupled model system RCA4-NEMO and the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, and we evaluate different scenarios of temperature dependence on fish physiology and resource productivity. When accounting for temperature-effects on physiology in addition to on basal productivity, projected size-at-age in 2050 increases on average for all fish species, mainly for young fish, compared to scenarios without warming. In contrast, size-at-age decreases when temperature affects resource dynamics only, and the decline is largest for young fish. Faster growth rates due to warming, however, do not always translate to larger yields, as lower resource carrying capacities with increasing temperature tend to result in decline in the abundance of larger fish and hence spawning stock biomass. These results suggest that to understand how global warming affects the size structure of fish communities, both direct metabolic effects and indirect effects of temperature via basal resources must be accounted for.
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Affiliation(s)
- Max Lindmark
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Coastal ResearchSwedish University of Agricultural SciencesÖregrundSweden
| | - Asta Audzijonyte
- Nature Research CentreVilniusLithuania
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine SocioecologyUniversity of TasmaniaHobartTasmaniaAustralia
| | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine SocioecologyUniversity of TasmaniaHobartTasmaniaAustralia
| | - Anna Gårdmark
- Department of Aquatic ResourcesSwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden
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12
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Danylchuk AJ, Griffin LP, Ahrens R, Allen MS, Boucek RE, Brownscombe JW, Casselberry GA, Danylchuk SC, Filous A, Goldberg TL, Perez AU, Rehage JS, Santos RO, Shenker J, Wilson JK, Adams AJ, Cooke SJ. Cascading effects of climate change on recreational marine flats fishes and fisheries. ENVIRONMENTAL BIOLOGY OF FISHES 2022; 106:381-416. [PMID: 36118617 PMCID: PMC9465673 DOI: 10.1007/s10641-022-01333-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2022] [Accepted: 08/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Tropical and subtropical coastal flats are shallow regions of the marine environment at the intersection of land and sea. These regions provide myriad ecological goods and services, including recreational fisheries focused on flats-inhabiting fishes such as bonefish, tarpon, and permit. The cascading effects of climate change have the potential to negatively impact coastal flats around the globe and to reduce their ecological and economic value. In this paper, we consider how the combined effects of climate change, including extremes in temperature and precipitation regimes, sea level rise, and changes in nutrient dynamics, are causing rapid and potentially permanent changes to the structure and function of tropical and subtropical flats ecosystems. We then apply the available science on recreationally targeted fishes to reveal how these changes can cascade through layers of biological organization-from individuals, to populations, to communities-and ultimately impact the coastal systems that depend on them. We identify critical gaps in knowledge related to the extent and severity of these effects, and how such gaps influence the effectiveness of conservation, management, policy, and grassroots stewardship efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andy J. Danylchuk
- Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts Amherst, 160 Holdsworth Way, Amherst, MA 01003 USA
| | - Lucas P. Griffin
- Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts Amherst, 160 Holdsworth Way, Amherst, MA 01003 USA
| | - Robert Ahrens
- Fisheries Research and Monitoring Division, NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, 1845 Wasp Blvd., Bldg 176, Honolulu, HI 96818 USA
| | - Micheal S. Allen
- Nature Coast Biological Station, School of Forest, Fisheries and Geomatics Sciences, The University of Florida, 552 First Street, Cedar Key, FL 32625 USA
| | - Ross E. Boucek
- Bonefish & Tarpon Trust, 2937 SW 27th Ave, Suite 203, Miami, FL 33133 USA
- Earth and Environment Department, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199 USA
| | - Jacob W. Brownscombe
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6 Canada
| | - Grace A. Casselberry
- Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts Amherst, 160 Holdsworth Way, Amherst, MA 01003 USA
| | - Sascha Clark Danylchuk
- Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts Amherst, 160 Holdsworth Way, Amherst, MA 01003 USA
- Keep Fish Wet, 11 Kingman Road, Amherst, MA 01002 USA
| | - Alex Filous
- Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts Amherst, 160 Holdsworth Way, Amherst, MA 01003 USA
| | - Tony L. Goldberg
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1656 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706 USA
| | - Addiel U. Perez
- Bonefish & Tarpon Trust, 2937 SW 27th Ave, Suite 203, Miami, FL 33133 USA
| | - Jennifer S. Rehage
- Earth and Environment Department, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199 USA
| | - Rolando O. Santos
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33181 USA
| | - Jonathan Shenker
- Department of Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 West University Boulevard, Melbourne, FL 32904 USA
| | - JoEllen K. Wilson
- Bonefish & Tarpon Trust, 2937 SW 27th Ave, Suite 203, Miami, FL 33133 USA
| | - Aaron J. Adams
- Bonefish & Tarpon Trust, 2937 SW 27th Ave, Suite 203, Miami, FL 33133 USA
- Florida Atlantic University Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute, 5600 US 1 North, Fort Pierce, FL 34946 USA
| | - Steven J. Cooke
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6 Canada
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13
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Weiskopf SR, Myers BJE, Arce-Plata MI, Blanchard JL, Ferrier S, Fulton EA, Harfoot M, Isbell F, Johnson JA, Mori AS, Weng E, HarmáCˇková ZV, Londoño-Murcia MC, Miller BW, Pereira LM, Rosa IMD. A Conceptual Framework to Integrate Biodiversity, Ecosystem Function, and Ecosystem Service Models. Bioscience 2022; 72:1062-1073. [PMID: 36506699 PMCID: PMC9718641 DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biac074] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections may therefore be overly optimistic because they do not always account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integration framework to more fully account for the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function, a key gap for linking biodiversity changes to ecosystem services. We propose two integration pathways. The first uses empirical data on biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships to bridge biodiversity and ecosystem function models and could currently be implemented globally for systems and taxa with sufficient data. We also propose a trait-based approach involving greater incorporation of biodiversity into ecosystem function models. Pursuing both approaches will provide greater insight into biodiversity and ecosystem services projections. Integrating biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem service modeling will enhance policy development to meet global sustainability goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah R Weiskopf
- US Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center, in Reston, Virginia, United States
| | - Bonnie J E Myers
- North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States
| | | | | | - Simon Ferrier
- Land and Water, CSIRO, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | | | - Mike Harfoot
- United Nations Environment Programme–World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, England, United Kingdom
| | - Forest Isbell
- University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, United States
| | | | | | - Ensheng Weng
- Columbia University and with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, both New York, New York, United States
| | - Zuzana V HarmáCˇková
- Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czechia and with the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Brian W Miller
- US Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Boulder, Colorado, United States
| | - Laura M Pereira
- University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and with the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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14
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Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities. Nat Commun 2022; 13:3530. [PMID: 35790744 PMCID: PMC9256605 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2021] [Accepted: 05/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status. Responses of agriculture and fisheries to climate change are interlinked, yet rarely studied together. Here, the authors analyse more than 3000 households from 5 tropical countries and forecast mid-century climate change impacts, finding that communities with higher fishery dependence and lower socioeconomic status communities face greater losses.
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15
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Millington RC, Rogers A, Cox P, Bozec Y, Mumby PJ. Combined direct and indirect impacts of warming on the productivity of coral reef fishes. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca C. Millington
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science University of Exeter Exeter UK
- Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
| | - Alice Rogers
- School of Biological Sciences Victoria University of Wellington Wellington New Zealand
| | - Peter Cox
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science University of Exeter Exeter UK
| | - Yves‐Marie Bozec
- Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
| | - Peter J. Mumby
- Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
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16
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Heinichen M, McManus MC, Lucey SM, Aydin K, Humphries A, Innes-Gold A, Collie J. Incorporating temperature-dependent fish bioenergetics into a Narragansett Bay food web model. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.109911] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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17
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Uszko W, Huss M, Gårdmark A. Smaller species but larger stages: Warming effects on inter- and intraspecific community size structure. Ecology 2022; 103:e3699. [PMID: 35352827 PMCID: PMC9285768 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3699] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2021] [Revised: 12/17/2021] [Accepted: 01/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Global warming can alter size distributions of animal communities, but the contribution of size shifts within versus between species to such changes remains unknown. In particular, it is unclear if expected body size shrinkage in response to warming, observed at the interspecific level, can be used to infer similar size shifts within species. In this study, we compare warming effects on interspecific (relative species abundance) versus intraspecific (relative stage abundance) size structure of competing consumers by analyzing stage‐structured bioenergetic food web models consisting of one or two consumer species and two resources, parameterized for pelagic plankton. Varying composition and temperature and body size dependencies in these models, we predicted interspecific versus intraspecific size structure across temperature. We found that warming shifted community size structure toward dominance of smaller species, in line with empirical evidence summarized in our review of 136 literature studies. However, this result emerged only given a size–temperature interaction favoring small over large individuals in warm environments. In contrast, the same mechanism caused an intraspecific shift toward dominance of larger (adult) stages, reconciling disparate observations of size responses within and across zooplankton species in the literature. As the empirical evidence for warming‐driven stage shifts is scarce and equivocal, we call for more experimental studies on intraspecific size changes with warming. Understanding the global warming impacts on animal communities requires that we consider and quantify the relative importance of mechanisms concurrently shaping size distributions within and among species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wojciech Uszko
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skolgatan 6, Öregrund, Sweden
| | - Magnus Huss
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skolgatan 6, Öregrund, Sweden
| | - Anna Gårdmark
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skolgatan 6, Öregrund, Sweden
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18
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Kuo C, Ko C, Lai Y. Assessing warming impacts on marine fishes by integrating physiology‐guided distribution projections, life‐history changes, and food web dynamics. Methods Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13846] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Chi‐Yun Kuo
- Department of Biomedical Sciences and Environmental Biology Kaohsiung Medical University Kaohsiung, 80708 Taiwan
| | - Chia‐Ying Ko
- Institute of Fisheries Science National Taiwan University Taipei 10617 Taiwan
| | - Yin‐Zheng Lai
- Institute of Fisheries Science National Taiwan University Taipei 10617 Taiwan
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19
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Navarrete SA, Barahona M, Weidberg N, Broitman BR. Climate change in the coastal ocean: shifts in pelagic productivity and regionally diverging dynamics of coastal ecosystems. Proc Biol Sci 2022; 289:20212772. [PMID: 35259989 PMCID: PMC8914614 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.2772] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change has led to intensification and poleward migration of the Southeastern Pacific Anticyclone, forcing diverging regions of increasing, equatorward and decreasing, poleward coastal phytoplankton productivity along the Humboldt Upwelling Ecosystem, and a transition zone around 31° S. Using a 20-year dataset of barnacle larval recruitment and adult abundances, we show that striking increases in larval arrival have occurred since 1999 in the region of higher productivity, while slower but significantly negative trends dominate poleward of 30° S, where years of recruitment failure are now common. Rapid increases in benthic adults result from fast recruitment-stock feedbacks following increased recruitment. Slower population declines in the decreased productivity region may result from aging but still reproducing adults that provide temporary insurance against population collapses. Thus, in this region of the ocean where surface waters have been cooling down, climate change is transforming coastal pelagic and benthic ecosystems through altering primary productivity, which seems to propagate up the food web at rates modulated by stock-recruitment feedbacks and storage effects. Slower effects of downward productivity warn us that poleward stocks may be closer to collapse than current abundances may suggest.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sergio A Navarrete
- Estación Costera de Investigaciones Marinas, Las Cruces, Center for Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), and Millennium Nucleus for Ecology and Conservation of Temperate Mesophotic Reefs (NUTME), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.,Millennium Institute for Coastal Socio-Ecology (SECOS), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Mario Barahona
- Estación Costera de Investigaciones Marinas, Las Cruces, Center for Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), and Millennium Nucleus for Ecology and Conservation of Temperate Mesophotic Reefs (NUTME), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.,Departamento de Ciencias, Facultad de Artes Liberales, Nucleo Milenio UPWELL, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Viña del Mar, Chile
| | - Nicolas Weidberg
- Estación Costera de Investigaciones Marinas, Las Cruces, Center for Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), and Millennium Nucleus for Ecology and Conservation of Temperate Mesophotic Reefs (NUTME), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.,Department of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA.,Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad de Vigo, Vigo, Galicia, Spain
| | - Bernardo R Broitman
- Millennium Institute for Coastal Socio-Ecology (SECOS), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.,Departamento de Ciencias, Facultad de Artes Liberales, Nucleo Milenio UPWELL, Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Viña del Mar, Chile
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20
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Kürten N, Schmaljohann H, Bichet C, Haest B, Vedder O, González-Solís J, Bouwhuis S. High individual repeatability of the migratory behaviour of a long-distance migratory seabird. MOVEMENT ECOLOGY 2022; 10:5. [PMID: 35123590 PMCID: PMC8817581 DOI: 10.1186/s40462-022-00303-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2022] [Accepted: 01/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the evolution of migration requires knowledge of the patterns, sources, and consequences of variation in migratory behaviour, a need exacerbated by the fact that many migratory species show rapid population declines and require knowledge-based conservation measures. We therefore need detailed knowledge on the spatial and temporal distribution of individuals across their annual cycle, and quantify how the spatial and temporal components of migratory behaviour vary within and among individuals. METHODS We tracked 138 migratory journeys undertaken by 64 adult common terns (Sterna hirundo) from a breeding colony in northwest Germany to identify the annual spatiotemporal distribution of these birds and to evaluate the individual repeatability of eleven traits describing their migratory behaviour. RESULTS Birds left the breeding colony early September, then moved south along the East Atlantic Flyway. Wintering areas were reached mid-September and located at the west and south coasts of West Africa as well as the coasts of Namibia and South Africa. Birds left their wintering areas late March and reached the breeding colony mid-April. The timing, total duration and total distance of migration, as well as the location of individual wintering areas, were moderately to highly repeatable within individuals (repeatability indexes: 0.36-0.75, 0.65-0.66, 0.93-0.94, and 0.98-1.00, respectively), and repeatability estimates were not strongly affected by population-level inter-annual variation in migratory behaviour. CONCLUSIONS We found large between-individual variation in common tern annual spatiotemporal distribution and strong individual repeatability of several aspects of their migratory behaviour.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nathalie Kürten
- Institute of Avian Research, An der Vogelwarte 21, 26386, Wilhelmshaven, Germany.
- Institute of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Oldenburg, Carl-von-Ossietzky-Str. 9-11, 26129, Oldenburg, Germany.
| | - Heiko Schmaljohann
- Institute of Avian Research, An der Vogelwarte 21, 26386, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
- Institute of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Oldenburg, Carl-von-Ossietzky-Str. 9-11, 26129, Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Coraline Bichet
- Institute of Avian Research, An der Vogelwarte 21, 26386, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372, CNRS-Université de La Rochelle, 79360, Villiers-en-Bois, France
| | - Birgen Haest
- Department of Bird Migration, Swiss Ornithological Institute, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Oscar Vedder
- Institute of Avian Research, An der Vogelwarte 21, 26386, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
| | - Jacob González-Solís
- Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat and Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Universitat de Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 643, 08028, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Sandra Bouwhuis
- Institute of Avian Research, An der Vogelwarte 21, 26386, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
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21
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Grosbois G, Power M, Evans M, Koehler G, Rautio M. Content, composition, and transfer of polyunsaturated fatty acids in an Arctic lake food web. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3881] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Guillaume Grosbois
- Département des Sciences Fondamentales Université du Québec à Chicoutimi Chicoutimi Quebec Canada
- Centre d’Études Nordiques (CEN) Université Laval Quebec City Quebec Canada
- Groupe de Recherche Interuniversitaire en Limnologie (GRIL) Université de Montréal Montreal Quebec Canada
| | - Michael Power
- Department of Biology University of Waterloo Waterloo Ontario Canada
| | - Marlene Evans
- NHRC Stable Isotope Laboratory, Environment and Climate Change Canada Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada
| | - Geoff Koehler
- NHRC Stable Isotope Laboratory, Environment and Climate Change Canada Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada
| | - Milla Rautio
- Département des Sciences Fondamentales Université du Québec à Chicoutimi Chicoutimi Quebec Canada
- Centre d’Études Nordiques (CEN) Université Laval Quebec City Quebec Canada
- Groupe de Recherche Interuniversitaire en Limnologie (GRIL) Université de Montréal Montreal Quebec Canada
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22
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Ullah H, Fordham DA, Nagelkerken I. Climate change negates positive CO 2 effects on marine species biomass and productivity by altering the strength and direction of trophic interactions. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 801:149624. [PMID: 34419906 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149624] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2020] [Revised: 08/06/2021] [Accepted: 08/09/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
One of the biggest challenges in more accurately forecasting the effects of climate change on future food web dynamics relates to how climate change affects multi-trophic species interactions, particularly when multiple interacting stressors are considered. Using a dynamic food web model, we investigate the individual and combined effect of ocean warming and acidification on changes in trophic interaction strengths (both direct and indirect) and the consequent effects on biomass structure of food web functional groups. To do this, we mimicked a species-rich multi-trophic-level temperate shallow-water rocky reef food web and integrated empirical data from mesocosm experiments on altered species interactions under warming and acidification, into food-web models. We show that a low number of strong temperature-driven changes in direct trophic interactions (feeding and competition) will largely determine the magnitude of biomass change (either increase or decrease) of high-order consumers, with increasing consumer biomass suppressing that of prey species. Ocean acidification, in contrast, alters a large number of weak indirect interactions (e.g. cascading effects of increased or decreased abundances of other groups), enabling a large increase in consumer and prey biomass. The positive effects of ocean acidification are driven by boosted primary productivity, with energy flowing up to higher trophic levels. We show that warming is a much stronger driver of positive as well as negative modifications of species biomass compared to ocean acidification. Warming affects a much smaller number of existing trophic interactions, though, with direct consumer-resource effects being more important than indirect effects. We conclude that the functional role of consumers in future food webs will be largely regulated by alterations in the strength of direct trophic interactions under ocean warming, with ensuing effects on the biomass structure of marine food webs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hadayet Ullah
- Southern Seas Ecology Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences and the Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Damien A Fordham
- School of Biological Sciences and the Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Ivan Nagelkerken
- Southern Seas Ecology Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences and the Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; School of Biological Sciences and the Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.
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Farr ER, Johnson MR, Nelson MW, Hare JA, Morrison WE, Lettrich MD, Vogt B, Meaney C, Howson UA, Auster PJ, Borsuk FA, Brady DC, Cashman MJ, Colarusso P, Grabowski JH, Hawkes JP, Mercaldo-Allen R, Packer DB, Stevenson DK. An assessment of marine, estuarine, and riverine habitat vulnerability to climate change in the Northeast U.S. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0260654. [PMID: 34882701 PMCID: PMC8659346 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2021] [Accepted: 11/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is impacting the function and distribution of habitats used by marine, coastal, and diadromous species. These impacts often exacerbate the anthropogenic stressors that habitats face, particularly in the coastal environment. We conducted a climate vulnerability assessment of 52 marine, estuarine, and riverine habitats in the Northeast U.S. to develop an ecosystem-scale understanding of the impact of climate change on these habitats. The trait-based assessment considers the overall vulnerability of a habitat to climate change to be a function of two main components, sensitivity and exposure, and relies on a process of expert elicitation. The climate vulnerability ranks ranged from low to very high, with living habitats identified as the most vulnerable. Over half of the habitats examined in this study are expected to be impacted negatively by climate change, while four habitats are expected to have positive effects. Coastal habitats were also identified as highly vulnerable, in part due to the influence of non-climate anthropogenic stressors. The results of this assessment provide regional managers and scientists with a tool to inform habitat conservation, restoration, and research priorities, fisheries and protected species management, and coastal and ocean planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily R. Farr
- Office of Habitat Conservation, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Michael R. Johnson
- Habitat and Ecosystem Services Division, Greater Atlantic Regional Fisheries Office, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Gloucester, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Mark W. Nelson
- ECS, Under contract to the Office of Science and Technology, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Jonathan A. Hare
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Wendy E. Morrison
- Office of Sustainable Fisheries, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Matthew D. Lettrich
- ECS, Under contract to the Office of Science and Technology, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Bruce Vogt
- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Annapolis, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Christopher Meaney
- Gulf of Maine Coastal Program, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Falmouth, Maine, United States of America
| | - Ursula A. Howson
- Office of Renewable Energy Programs, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Sterling, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Peter J. Auster
- Mystic Aquarium & University of Connecticut, Groton, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Frank A. Borsuk
- Region 3, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Wheeling, West Virginia, United States of America
| | - Damian C. Brady
- Darling Marine Center, University of Maine, Walpole, Maine, United States of America
| | - Matthew J. Cashman
- Maryland-Delaware-DC Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Phil Colarusso
- Region 1, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Jonathan H. Grabowski
- Marine Science Center, Northeastern University, Nahant, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - James P. Hawkes
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Orono, Maine, United States of America
| | - Renee Mercaldo-Allen
- Milford Laboratory, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Milford, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - David B. Packer
- James J. Howard Marine Sciences Laboratory, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Highlands, New Jersey, United States of America
| | - David K. Stevenson
- Habitat and Ecosystem Services Division, Greater Atlantic Regional Fisheries Office, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Gloucester, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Renedo M, Point D, Sonke JE, Lorrain A, Demarcq H, Graco M, Grados D, Gutiérrez D, Médieu A, Munaron JM, Pietri A, Colas F, Tremblay Y, Roy A, Bertrand A, Bertrand SL. ENSO Climate Forcing of the Marine Mercury Cycle in the Peruvian Upwelling Zone Does Not Affect Methylmercury Levels of Marine Avian Top Predators. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2021; 55:15754-15765. [PMID: 34797644 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c03861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is expected to affect marine mercury (Hg) biogeochemistry and biomagnification. Recent modeling work suggested that ocean warming increases methylmercury (MeHg) levels in fish. Here, we studied the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) on Hg concentrations and stable isotopes in time series of seabird blood from the Peruvian upwelling and oxygen minimum zone. Between 2009 and 2016, La Niña (2011) and El Niño conditions (2015-2016) were accompanied by sea surface temperature anomalies up to 3 °C, oxycline depth change (20-100 m), and strong primary production gradients. Seabird Hg levels were stable and did not co-vary significantly with oceanographic parameters, nor with anchovy biomass, the primary dietary source to seabirds (90%). In contrast, seabird Δ199Hg, proxy for marine photochemical MeHg breakdown, and δ15N showed strong interannual variability (up to 0.8 and 3‰, respectively) and sharply decreased during El Niño. We suggest that lower Δ199Hg during El Niño represents reduced MeHg photodegradation due to the deepening of the oxycline. This process was balanced by equally reduced Hg methylation due to reduced productivity, carbon export, and remineralization. The non-dependence of seabird MeHg levels on strong ENSO variability suggests that marine predator MeHg levels may not be as sensitive to climate change as is currently thought.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marina Renedo
- Géosciences Environnement Toulouse (GET)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), CNRS, Université de Toulouse, 14 Avenue Edouard Belin, Toulouse 31400, France
| | - David Point
- Géosciences Environnement Toulouse (GET)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), CNRS, Université de Toulouse, 14 Avenue Edouard Belin, Toulouse 31400, France
| | - Jeroen E Sonke
- Géosciences Environnement Toulouse (GET)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), CNRS, Université de Toulouse, 14 Avenue Edouard Belin, Toulouse 31400, France
| | - Anne Lorrain
- Univ Brest, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, LEMAR, Plouzané F-29280 France
| | - Hervé Demarcq
- IRD, MARBEC (Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD), Sète 34203, France
| | - Michelle Graco
- Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Esquina Gamarra y General Valle, Callao 07021, Peru
| | - Daniel Grados
- Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Esquina Gamarra y General Valle, Callao 07021, Peru
| | - Dimitri Gutiérrez
- Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Esquina Gamarra y General Valle, Callao 07021, Peru
| | - Anaïs Médieu
- Univ Brest, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, LEMAR, Plouzané F-29280 France
| | | | - Alice Pietri
- Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Esquina Gamarra y General Valle, Callao 07021, Peru
| | - François Colas
- LOCEAN IPSL (IRD/CNRS/SU/MNHN), 4 Place Jussieu, Paris 75252, France
| | - Yann Tremblay
- IRD, MARBEC (Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD), Sète 34203, France
| | - Amédée Roy
- IRD, MARBEC (Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD), Sète 34203, France
| | - Arnaud Bertrand
- IRD, MARBEC (Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD), Sète 34203, France
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25
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Lavender E, Fox CJ, Burrows MT. Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0258184. [PMID: 34606498 PMCID: PMC8489719 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258184] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2020] [Accepted: 09/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding and predicting the response of marine communities to climate change at large spatial scales, and distilling this information for policymakers, are prerequisites for ecosystem-based management. Changes in thermal habitat suitability across species’ distributions are especially concerning because of their implications for abundance, affecting species’ conservation, trophic interactions and fisheries. However, most predictive studies of the effects of climate change have tended to be sub-global in scale and focused on shifts in species’ range edges or commercially exploited species. Here, we develop a widely applicable methodology based on climate response curves to predict global-scale changes in thermal habitat suitability. We apply the approach across the distributions of 2,293 shallow-water fish species under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 by 2050–2100. We find a clear pattern of predicted declines in thermal habitat suitability in the tropics versus general increases at higher latitudes. The Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean and western Africa emerge as the areas of most concern, where high species richness and the strongest declines in thermal habitat suitability coincide. This reflects a pattern of consistently narrow thermal ranges, with most species in these regions already exposed to temperatures above inferred thermal optima. In contrast, in temperate regions, such as northern Europe, where most species live below thermal optima and thermal ranges are wider, positive changes in thermal habitat suitability suggest that these areas are likely to emerge as the greatest beneficiaries of climate change, despite strong predicted temperature increases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edward Lavender
- The Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Dunstaffnage, Oban, Argyll, Scotland
- * E-mail:
| | - Clive J. Fox
- The Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Dunstaffnage, Oban, Argyll, Scotland
| | - Michael T. Burrows
- The Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Dunstaffnage, Oban, Argyll, Scotland
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26
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Capitani L, de Araujo JN, Vieira EA, Angelini R, Longo GO. Ocean Warming Will Reduce Standing Biomass in a Tropical Western Atlantic Reef Ecosystem. Ecosystems 2021. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-021-00691-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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27
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28
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Mattei F, Buonocore E, Franzese P, Scardi M. Global assessment of marine phytoplankton primary production: Integrating machine learning and environmental accounting models. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109578] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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29
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du Pontavice H, Gascuel D, Reygondeau G, Stock C, Cheung WWL. Climate-induced decrease in biomass flow in marine food webs may severely affect predators and ecosystem production. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:2608-2622. [PMID: 33660891 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15576] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2020] [Revised: 02/17/2021] [Accepted: 02/20/2021] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Climate change impacts on marine life in the world ocean are expected to accelerate over the 21st century, affecting the structure and functioning of food webs. We analyzed a key aspect of this issue, focusing on the impact of changes in biomass flow within marine food webs and the resulting effects on ecosystem biomass and production. We used a modeling framework based on a parsimonious quasi-physical representation of biomass flow through the food web, to explore the future of marine consumer biomass and production at the global scale over the 21st century. Biomass flow is determined by three climate-related factors: primary production entering the food web, trophic transfer efficiency describing losses in biomass transfers from one trophic level (TL) to the next, and flow kinetic measuring the speed of biomass transfers within the food web. Using climate projections of three earth system models, we calculated biomass and production at each TL on a 1° latitude ×1° longitude grid of the global ocean under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We show that the alterations of the trophic functioning of marine ecosystems, mainly driven by faster and less efficient biomass transfers and decreasing primary production, would lead to a projected decline in total consumer biomass by 18.5% by 2090-2099 relative to 1986-2005 under the "no mitigation policy" scenario. The projected decrease in transfer efficiency is expected to amplify impacts at higher TLs, leading to a 21.3% decrease in abundance of predators and thus to a change in the overall trophic structure of marine ecosystems. Marine animal production is also projected to decline but to a lesser extent than biomass. Our study highlights that the temporal and spatial projected changes in biomass and production would imply direct repercussions on the future of world fisheries and beyond all services provided by Ocean.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hubert du Pontavice
- ESE, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
- Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Didier Gascuel
- ESE, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Charles Stock
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - William W L Cheung
- Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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30
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Alteration of coastal productivity and artisanal fisheries interact to affect a marine food web. Sci Rep 2021; 11:1765. [PMID: 33469119 PMCID: PMC7815714 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-81392-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2020] [Accepted: 12/29/2020] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Top-down and bottom-up forces determine ecosystem function and dynamics. Fisheries as a top-down force can shorten and destabilize food webs, while effects driven by climate change can alter the bottom-up forces of primary productivity. We assessed the response of a highly-resolved intertidal food web to these two global change drivers, using network analysis and bioenergetic modelling. We quantified the relative importance of artisanal fisheries as another predator species, and evaluated the independent and combined effects of fisheries and changes in plankton productivity on food web dynamics. The food web was robust to the loss of all harvested species but sensitive to the decline in plankton productivity. Interestingly, fisheries dampened the negative impacts of decreasing plankton productivity on non-harvested species by reducing the predation pressure of harvested consumers on non-harvested resources, and reducing the interspecific competition between harvested and non-harvested basal species. In contrast, the decline in plankton productivity increased the sensitivity of harvested species to fishing by reducing the total productivity of the food web. Our results show that strategies for new scenarios caused by climate change are needed to protect marine ecosystems and the wellbeing of local communities dependent on their resources.
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31
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Tittensor DP, Novaglio C, Harrison CS, Heneghan RF, Barrier N, Bianchi D, Bopp L, Bryndum-Buchholz A, Britten GL, Büchner M, Cheung WWL, Christensen V, Coll M, Dunne JP, Eddy TD, Everett JD, Fernandes-Salvador JA, Fulton EA, Galbraith ED, Gascuel D, Guiet J, John JG, Link JS, Lotze HK, Maury O, Ortega-Cisneros K, Palacios-Abrantes J, Petrik CM, du Pontavice H, Rault J, Richardson AJ, Shannon L, Shin YJ, Steenbeek J, Stock CA, Blanchard JL. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 2021; 11:973-981. [PMID: 34745348 PMCID: PMC8556156 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/01/2021] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Derek P. Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
| | - Cheryl S. Harrison
- School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX USA
- Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Centre for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA USA
| | - Ryan F. Heneghan
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
| | - Nicolas Barrier
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Daniele Bianchi
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
| | - Laurent Bopp
- LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
| | | | - Gregory L. Britten
- Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA USA
| | - Matthias Büchner
- Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - Villy Christensen
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
- Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - John P. Dunne
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Tyler D. Eddy
- Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador Canada
| | - Jason D. Everett
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
- Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales Australia
| | | | - Elizabeth A. Fulton
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec Canada
| | - Didier Gascuel
- UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
| | - Jerome Guiet
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
| | - Jasmin G. John
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | | | - Heike K. Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
| | - Olivier Maury
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | | | - Juliano Palacios-Abrantes
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI USA
| | - Colleen M. Petrik
- Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX USA
| | - Hubert du Pontavice
- UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Jonathan Rault
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Anthony J. Richardson
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
| | - Lynne Shannon
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Yunne-Jai Shin
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Jeroen Steenbeek
- Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Charles A. Stock
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
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32
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Carr H, Abas M, Boutahar L, Caretti ON, Chan WY, Chapman ASA, de Mendonça SN, Engleman A, Ferrario F, Simmons KR, Verdura J, Zivian A. The Aichi Biodiversity Targets: achievements for marine conservation and priorities beyond 2020. PeerJ 2020; 8:e9743. [PMID: 33391861 PMCID: PMC7759131 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.9743] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2019] [Accepted: 07/27/2020] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
In 2010 the Conference of the Parties (COP) for the Convention on Biological Diversity revised and updated a Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, which included the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Here a group of early career researchers mentored by senior scientists, convened as part of the 4th World Conference on Marine Biodiversity, reflects on the accomplishments and shortfalls under four of the Aichi Targets considered highly relevant to marine conservation: target 6 (sustainable fisheries), 11 (protection measures), 15 (ecosystem restoration and resilience) and 19 (knowledge, science and technology). We conclude that although progress has been made towards the targets, these have not been fully achieved for the marine environment by the 2020 deadline. The progress made, however, lays the foundations for further work beyond 2020 to work towards the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity. We identify key priorities that must be addressed to better enable marine biodiversity conservation efforts moving forward.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah Carr
- The Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Peterborough, Cambridgeshire, UK
| | - Marina Abas
- Departamento de Ciencias Marinas y Costeras, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico
| | - Loubna Boutahar
- BioBio Research Center, BioEcoGen Laboratory, Faculty of Sciences, Mohammed V University in Rabat, Rabat, Morocco.,Laboratorío de Biología Marina, Departamento de Zoología, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Olivia N Caretti
- Department of Marine, Earth, & Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Wing Yan Chan
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, QLD, Australia.,School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Abbie S A Chapman
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire, UK.,Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Abigail Engleman
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA
| | - Filippo Ferrario
- Québec-Ocean and Département de Biologie, Université Laval, Québec, QC, Canada
| | - Kayelyn R Simmons
- Department of Marine, Earth, & Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Jana Verdura
- Institut d'Ecologia Aquàtica, Facultat de Ciències, Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain
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33
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Enhanced fish production during a period of extreme global warmth. Nat Commun 2020; 11:5636. [PMID: 33159071 PMCID: PMC7648762 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19462-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2020] [Accepted: 10/16/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Marine ecosystem models predict a decline in fish production with anthropogenic ocean warming, but how fish production equilibrates to warming on longer timescales is unclear. We report a positive nonlinear correlation between ocean temperature and pelagic fish production during the extreme global warmth of the Early Paleogene Period (62-46 million years ago [Ma]). Using data-constrained modeling, we find that temperature-driven increases in trophic transfer efficiency (the fraction of production passed up trophic levels) and primary production can account for the observed increase in fish production, while changes in predator-prey interactions cannot. These data provide new insight into upper-trophic-level processes constrained from the geological record, suggesting that long-term warming may support more productive food webs in subtropical pelagic ecosystems.
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34
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Heneghan RF, Everett JD, Sykes P, Batten SD, Edwards M, Takahashi K, Suthers IM, Blanchard JL, Richardson AJ. A functional size-spectrum model of the global marine ecosystem that resolves zooplankton composition. Ecol Modell 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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35
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Islam MJ, Kunzmann A, Thiele R, Slater MJ. Effects of extreme ambient temperature in European seabass, Dicentrarchus labrax acclimated at different salinities: Growth performance, metabolic and molecular stress responses. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 735:139371. [PMID: 32473428 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2020] [Revised: 05/01/2020] [Accepted: 05/10/2020] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent as a result of climate change. The modulation of hemato-physiological potential as a compensatory response to extreme warm events combined with different salinities is poorly understood. This study aimed to assess the hemato-physiological and molecular response of European seabass, Dicentrarchus labrax exposed to extreme warm temperature (33 °C) after prior acclimatization at 32 psu, 12 psu, 6 psu, and 2 psu water. Fish were acclimated to 32 psu, 12 psu, 6 psu, and 2 psu followed by 10 days extreme warm (33 °C) exposure. Along with growth performance and survival, hemato-physiological response and molecular response of fish were recorded. Fish held at 32 psu and 2 psu exhibited significantly lower growth performance and survival than those at 12 psu and 6 psu (p < 0.05). Red blood cells (RBC), hematocrit, and hemoglobin content were significantly decreased, while white blood cells (WBC), erythrocytic cellular abnormalities (ECA) and erythrocytic nuclear abnormalities (ENA) were found to increase significantly in 32 psu and 2 psu fish (p < 0.05). Plasma lactate was found to increase significantly in 32 psu fish on day 10 (p < 0.05). Activities of glutathione peroxidase (GPx), glutathione reductase (GR), superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), and TNF-α expression increased significantly in 32 psu and 2 psu fish (p < 0.05). Most of the repeated measured parameters indicated limited acclimation capacity during the extreme warm exposure at all four salinity groups. However, overall results indicate that European seabass acclimatized at 12 psu and 6 psu salinities, can cope better during extreme warm exposure (33 °C).
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Jakiul Islam
- Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT), 28359 Bremen, Germany; Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany.
| | - Andreas Kunzmann
- Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT), 28359 Bremen, Germany
| | - Rajko Thiele
- Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Matthew James Slater
- Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Helmholtz-Center for Polar and Marine Research, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
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Murphy KJ, Pecl GT, Richards SA, Semmens JM, Revill AT, Suthers IM, Everett JD, Trebilco R, Blanchard JL. Functional traits explain trophic allometries of cephalopods. J Anim Ecol 2020; 89:2692-2703. [PMID: 32895913 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2020] [Accepted: 08/13/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Individual body size strongly influences the trophic role of marine organisms and the structure and function of marine ecosystems. Quantifying trophic position-individual body size relationships (trophic allometries) underpins the development of size-structured ecosystem models to predict abundance and the transfer of energy through ecosystems. Trophic allometries are well studied for fishes but remain relatively unexplored for cephalopods. Cephalopods are important components of coastal, oceanic and deep-sea ecosystems, and they play a key role in the transfer of biomass from low trophic positions to higher predators. It is therefore important to resolve cephalopod trophic allometries to accurately represent them within size-structured ecosystem models. We assessed the trophic positions of cephalopods in an oceanic pelagic (0-500 m) community (sampled by trawling in a cold-core eddy in the western Tasman Sea), comprising 22 species from 12 families, using bulk tissue stable isotope analysis and amino acid compound-specific stable isotope analysis. We assessed whether ontogenetic trophic position shifts were evident at the species-level and tested for the best predictor of community-level trophic allometry among body size, taxonomy and functional grouping (informed by fin and mantle morphology). Individuals in this cephalopod community spanned two trophic positions and fell into three functional groups on an activity level gradient: low, medium and high. The relationship between trophic position and ontogeny varied among species, with the most marked differences evident between species from different functional groups. Activity-level-based functional group and individual body size are best explained by cephalopod trophic positions (marginal R2 = 0.43). Our results suggest that the morphological traits used to infer activity level, such as fin-to-mantle length ratio, fin musculature and mantle musculature are strong predictors of cephalopod trophic allometries. Contrary to established theory, not all cephalopods are voracious predators. Low activity level cephalopods have a distinct feeding mode, with low trophic positions and little-to-no ontogenetic increases. Given the important role of cephalopods in marine ecosystems, distinct feeding modes could have important consequences for energy pathways and ecosystem structure and function. These findings will facilitate trait-based and other model estimates of cephalopod abundance in the changing global ocean.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kieran J Murphy
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas, Australia
| | - Gretta T Pecl
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas, Australia
| | - Shane A Richards
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas, Australia
| | - Jayson M Semmens
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas, Australia
| | | | - Iain M Suthers
- School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Mosman, NSW, Australia
| | - Jason D Everett
- School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
| | - Rowan Trebilco
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas, Australia.,CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia
| | - Julia L Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas, Australia
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Kafaei S, Akmali V, Sharifi M. Using the Ensemble Modeling Approach to Predict the Potential Distribution of the Muscat Mouse-Tailed Bat, Rhinopoma muscatellum (Chiroptera: Rhinopomatidae), in Iran. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, TRANSACTIONS A: SCIENCE 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s40995-020-00953-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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38
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Maltby KM, Rutterford LA, Tinker J, Genner MJ, Simpson SD. Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf. J Appl Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Katherine M. Maltby
- Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas) Lowestoft UK
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
| | - Louise A. Rutterford
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
- School of Biological Sciences Life Sciences Building University of Bristol Bristol UK
| | | | - Martin J. Genner
- School of Biological Sciences Life Sciences Building University of Bristol Bristol UK
| | - Stephen D. Simpson
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
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39
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer Sunday
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 1B1, Canada
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40
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Cator LJ, Johnson LR, Mordecai EA, Moustaid FE, Smallwood TRC, LaDeau SL, Johansson MA, Hudson PJ, Boots M, Thomas MB, Power AG, Pawar S. The Role of Vector Trait Variation in Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics. Front Ecol Evol 2020; 8:189. [PMID: 32775339 PMCID: PMC7409824 DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.00189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Many important endemic and emerging diseases are transmitted by vectors that are biting arthropods. The functional traits of vectors can affect pathogen transmission rates directly and also through their effect on vector population dynamics. Increasing empirical evidence shows that vector traits vary significantly across individuals, populations, and environmental conditions, and at time scales relevant to disease transmission dynamics. Here, we review empirical evidence for variation in vector traits and how this trait variation is currently incorporated into mathematical models of vector-borne disease transmission. We argue that mechanistically incorporating trait variation into these models, by explicitly capturing its effects on vector fitness and abundance, can improve the reliability of their predictions in a changing world. We provide a conceptual framework for incorporating trait variation into vector-borne disease transmission models, and highlight key empirical and theoretical challenges. This framework provides a means to conceptualize how traits can be incorporated in vector borne disease systems, and identifies key areas in which trait variation can be explored. Determining when and to what extent it is important to incorporate trait variation into vector borne disease models remains an important, outstanding question.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren J. Cator
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, United Kingdom
| | - Leah R. Johnson
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States
| | - Erin A. Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Fadoua El Moustaid
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States
- BresMed America Inc, Las Vegas, NV, United States
| | | | - Shannon L. LaDeau
- The Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, United States
| | | | - Peter J. Hudson
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
| | - Michael Boots
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
| | - Matthew B. Thomas
- Department of Entomology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
| | - Alison G. Power
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
| | - Samraat Pawar
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, United Kingdom
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Das I, Lauria V, Kay S, Cazcarro I, Arto I, Fernandes JA, Hazra S. Effects of climate change and management policies on marine fisheries productivity in the north-east coast of India. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 724:138082. [PMID: 32268283 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2019] [Revised: 03/18/2020] [Accepted: 03/19/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
The study covers two important deltaic systems of the north-east coast of India, viz. the Bengal and Mahanadi delta that support about 1.25 million people. The changes in potential marine fish production and socio-economic conditions were modelled for these two deltas under long-term changes in environmental conditions (sea surface temperature and primary production) to the end of the 21st century. Our results show that an increased temperature (by 4 °C) has a negative impact on fisheries productivity, which was projected to decrease by 5%. At the species level, Bombay duck, Indian mackerel and threadfin bream showed an increasing trend in the biomass of potential catches under the sustainable fishing scenario. However, under the business as usual and overfishing scenarios, our results suggest reduced catch for both states. On the other hand, mackerel tuna, Indian oil sardine, and hilsa fisheries showed a projected reduction in potential catch also for the sustainable fishing scenario. The socio-economic models projected an increase of up to 0.67% (involving 0.8 billion USD) in consumption by 2050 even under the best management scenario. The GDP per capita was projected to face a loss of 1.7 billion USD by 2050. The loss of low-cost fisheries would negatively impact the poorer coastal population since they strongly depend upon these fisheries as a source of protein. Nevertheless, adaptation strategies tend to have a negative correlation with poverty and food insecurity which needs to be addressed separately to make the sector-specific efforts effective. This work can be considered as the baseline model for future researchers and the policymakers to explore potential sustainable management options for the studied regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isha Das
- School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, 188 Raja S. C. Mallik Road, Jadavpur, Kolkata 700032, India.
| | - Valentina Lauria
- Institute for Marine Biological Resources and Biotechnology (IRBIM), National Research Council (CNR), Via L. Vaccara n 61, Mazara del Vallo, TP 91026, Italy
| | - Susan Kay
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL13 DH, UK
| | | | - Iñaki Arto
- BC3-Basque Centre for Climate Change, Spain
| | - Jose A Fernandes
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL13 DH, UK; AZTI, Herrera Kaia, Portualdea, z/g, Pasaia, Gipuzkoa 20110, Spain
| | - Sugata Hazra
- School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, 188 Raja S. C. Mallik Road, Jadavpur, Kolkata 700032, India
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Fernandes JA, Rutterford L, Simpson SD, Butenschön M, Frölicher TL, Yool A, Cheung WWL, Grant A. Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate? GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:3891-3905. [PMID: 32378286 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2019] [Revised: 02/05/2020] [Accepted: 02/23/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Large-scale and long-term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process-based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26-year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North-East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical-biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jose A Fernandes
- AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Pasaia, Spain
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK
| | - Louise Rutterford
- Biosciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- School of Biological Sciences, Life Sciences Building, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Stephen D Simpson
- School of Biological Sciences, Life Sciences Building, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Momme Butenschön
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK
- Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Andrew Yool
- National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
| | - William W L Cheung
- Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Alastair Grant
- Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy
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43
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Future ocean biomass losses may widen socioeconomic equity gaps. Nat Commun 2020; 11:2235. [PMID: 32376884 PMCID: PMC7203146 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15708-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2019] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Future climate impacts and their consequences are increasingly being explored using multi-model ensembles that average across individual model projections. Here we develop a statistical framework that integrates projections from coupled ecosystem and earth-system models to evaluate significance and uncertainty in marine animal biomass changes over the 21st century in relation to socioeconomic indicators at national to global scales. Significant biomass changes are projected in 40%–57% of the global ocean, with 68%–84% of these areas exhibiting declining trends under low and high emission scenarios, respectively. Given unabated emissions, maritime nations with poor socioeconomic statuses such as low nutrition, wealth, and ocean health will experience the greatest projected losses. These findings suggest that climate-driven biomass changes will widen existing equity gaps and disproportionally affect populations that contributed least to global CO2 emissions. However, our analysis also suggests that such deleterious outcomes are largely preventable by achieving negative emissions (RCP 2.6). Numerous marine ecosystem models are used to project animal biomass over time but integrating them can be challenging. Here the authors develop a test for statistical significance in multi-model ensemble trends, and thus relate future biomass trends to current patterns of ecological and socioeconomic status.
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44
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Colombo SM, Rodgers TFM, Diamond ML, Bazinet RP, Arts MT. Projected declines in global DHA availability for human consumption as a result of global warming. AMBIO 2020; 49:865-880. [PMID: 31512173 PMCID: PMC7028814 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-019-01234-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2019] [Revised: 05/22/2019] [Accepted: 07/20/2019] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) is an essential, omega-3, long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid that is a key component of cell membranes and plays a vital role in vertebrate brain function. The capacity to synthesize DHA is limited in mammals, despite its critical role in neurological development and health. For humans, DHA is most commonly obtained by eating fish. Global warming is predicted to reduce the de novo synthesis of DHA by algae, at the base of aquatic food chains, and which is expected to reduce DHA transferred to fish. We estimated the global quantity of DHA (total and per capita) currently available from commercial (wild caught and aquaculture) and recreational fisheries. The potential decrease in the amount of DHA available from fish for human consumption was modeled using the predicted effect of established global warming scenarios on algal DHA production and ensuing transfer to fish. We conclude that an increase in water temperature could result, depending on the climate scenario and location, in a ~ 10 to 58% loss of globally available DHA by 2100, potentially limiting the availability of this critical nutrient to humans. Inland waters show the greatest potential for climate-warming-induced decreases in DHA available for human consumption. The projected decrease in DHA availability as a result of global warming would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations (e.g., fetuses, infants), especially in inland Africa (due to low reported per capita DHA availability). We estimated, in the worst-case scenario, that DHA availability could decline to levels where 96% of the global population may not have access to sufficient DHA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stefanie M. Colombo
- Present Address: Department of Animal Science and Aquaculture, Faculty of Agriculture, Dalhousie University, 58 Sipu Road, Haley Building, Bible Hill, Truro, NS B2N 5E3 Canada
- Department of Chemistry and Biology, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria St., Toronto, ON M5B 2K3 Canada
| | - Timothy F. M. Rodgers
- Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON Canada
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Toronto, 22 Russell St., Toronto, ON M5S 3B1 Canada
| | - Miriam L. Diamond
- Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON Canada
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Toronto, 22 Russell St., Toronto, ON M5S 3B1 Canada
| | - Richard P. Bazinet
- Department of Nutritional Sciences, University of Toronto, Medical Sciences Building, 5th Floor, Room 5358, 1 King’s College Circle, Toronto, ON M5S 1A8 Canada
| | - Michael T. Arts
- Department of Chemistry and Biology, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria St., Toronto, ON M5B 2K3 Canada
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45
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Mattei F, Scardi M. Embedding ecological knowledge into artificial neural network training: A marine phytoplankton primary production model case study. Ecol Modell 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.108985] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
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46
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Verba JT, Pennino MG, Coll M, Lopes PFM. Assessing drivers of tropical and subtropical marine fish collapses of Brazilian Exclusive Economic Zone. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 702:134940. [PMID: 31733552 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134940] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2019] [Revised: 09/27/2019] [Accepted: 10/10/2019] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Overfishing is a concerning threat that can lead to the collapse of fish stocks. We assessed the combinations of factors, including biological traits, types of exploitation and responses to sea temperature and salinity changes, that drive species to collapse in the Brazilian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) tropical and subtropical regions. We applied a catch-based method of stock classification and a catch time series of 61 years from 132 exploited fish species. Species were categorized as Collapsed, Overexploited, Fully Exploited or in Development, and we used a GAM analysis to understand their categorization over time. Furthermore, a Redundancy Analysis was developed to assess the species characteristics that best predicted each exploitation category. Twelve species were classified as Collapsed, 55 as Overexploited, 46 as Fully Exploited and 19 as in Development. Tropical and subtropical exploited species collapses in Brazil were best explained by a complex combination of a negative impact of warmer sea temperatures, fishery exploitation and specific life-history traits. A synergistic interaction between these factors could bring species to collapse. We hypothesize that the exploitation of species with vulnerable traits may alter how these species respond to temperature and, therefore, lead them to collapse given that intense exploitation may affect their ability to respond to temperature increases. Measures to mitigate climate change impacts should take into consideration incentives to decrease the exploitation of vulnerable species and, specifically, consider species with more sensitive biological traits. Such measures are also important to minimize the socioeconomic impacts on the people that depend on these species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia Tovar Verba
- Fishing Ecology, Management, and Economics, Ecology Department, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil; Conservation Genetics Lab, Macquarie University, Australia.
| | - Maria Grazia Pennino
- Fishing Ecology, Management, and Economics, Ecology Department, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil; Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, Spain
| | - Marta Coll
- Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, Barcelona, Spain.
| | - Priscila F M Lopes
- Fishing Ecology, Management, and Economics, Ecology Department, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.
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47
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Bryndum-Buchholz A, Prentice F, Tittensor DP, Blanchard JL, Cheung WW, Christensen V, Galbraith ED, Maury O, Lotze HK. Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans. Facets (Ott) 2020. [DOI: 10.1139/facets-2019-0035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the Canadian Arctic (+26.2% ± 38.4%). Lower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. Individual model projections were most consistent in the Atlantic and Pacific, but highly variable in the Arctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. Different trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of Canada’s marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Faelan Prentice
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Derek P. Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Center for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point TAS 7004, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - William W.L. Cheung
- Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Villy Christensen
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), 08010 Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Mathematics, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Olivier Maury
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), MARBEC (IRD, University of Montpellier, IFREMER, CNRS), 34203 Sète, France
- Department of Oceanography, Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, 7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - Heike K. Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
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Huey RB, Kingsolver JG. Climate Warming, Resource Availability, and the Metabolic Meltdown of Ectotherms. Am Nat 2019; 194:E140-E150. [DOI: 10.1086/705679] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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49
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Cisneros-Mata MA, Mangin T, Bone J, Rodriguez L, Smith SL, Gaines SD. Fisheries governance in the face of climate change: Assessment of policy reform implications for Mexican fisheries. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0222317. [PMID: 31577835 PMCID: PMC6774473 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0222317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2018] [Accepted: 08/27/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is driving shifts in the abundance and distribution of marine fish and invertebrates and is having direct and indirect impacts on seafood catches and fishing communities, exacerbating the already negative effects of unsustainably high fishing pressure that exist for some stocks. Although the majority of fisheries in the world are managed at the national or local scale, most existing approaches to assessing climate impacts on fisheries have been developed on a global scale. It is often difficult to translate from the global to regional and local settings because of limited relevant data. To address the need for fisheries management entities to identify those fisheries with the greatest potential for climate change impacts, we present an approach for estimating expected climate change-driven impacts on the productivity and spatial range of fisheries at the regional scale in a data-poor context. We use a set of representative Mexican fisheries as test cases. To assess the implications of climate impacts, we compare biomass, harvest, and profit outcomes from a bioeconomic model under contrasting management policies and with and without climate change. Overall results show that climate change is estimated to negatively affect nearly every fishery in our study. However, the results indicate that overfishing is a greater threat than climate change for these fisheries, hence fixing current management challenges has a greater upside than the projected future costs of moderate levels of climate change. Additionally, this study provides meaningful first approximations of potential effects of both climate change and management reform in Mexican fisheries. Using the climate impact estimations and model outputs, we identify high priority stocks, fleets, and regions for policy reform in Mexico in the face of climate change. This approach can be applied in other data-poor circumstances to focus future research and policy reform efforts on stocks now subject to additional stress due to climate change. Considering their growing relevance as a critical source of protein and micronutrients to nourish our growing population, it is urgent for regions to develop sound fishery management policies in the short-term as they are the most important intervention to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on marine fisheries.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Tracey Mangin
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara CA, United States of America
- Sustainable Fisheries Group, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America
| | - Jennifer Bone
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara CA, United States of America
- Sustainable Fisheries Group, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America
| | - Laura Rodriguez
- Environmental Defense Fund de México A.C., La Paz, BCS, México
| | | | - Steven D. Gaines
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara CA, United States of America
- Sustainable Fisheries Group, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America
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Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:12907-12912. [PMID: 31186360 PMCID: PMC6600926 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900194116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 133] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
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