Testing the Amazon savannization hypothesis: fire effects on invasion of a neotropical forest by native cerrado and exotic pasture grasses

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1-3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

Impending anthropogenic threats and protected area prioritization for jaguars in the Brazilian Amazon

Jaguars (Panthera onca) exert critical top-down control over large vertebrates across the Neotropics. Yet, this iconic species have been declining due to multiple threats, such as habitat loss and hunting, which are rapidly increasing across the New World tropics. Based on geospatial layers, we extracted socio-environmental variables for 447 protected areas across the Brazilian Amazon to identify those that merit short-term high-priority efforts to maximize jaguar persistence. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and comparisons of measures of central tendency. Our results reveal that areas containing the largest jaguar densities and the largest estimated population sizes are precisely among those confronting most anthropogenic threats. Jaguars are threatened in the world's largest tropical forest biome by deforestation associated with anthropogenic fires, and the subsequent establishment of pastures. By contrasting the highest threats with the highest jaguar population sizes in a bivariate plot, we provide a shortlist of the top-10 protected areas that should be prioritized for immediate jaguar conservation efforts and 74 for short-term action. Many of these are located at the deforestation frontier or in important boundaries with neighboring countries (e.g., Peruvian, Colombian and Venezuelan Amazon). The predicament of a safe future for jaguars can only be ensured if protected areas persist and resist downgrading and downsizing due to both external anthropogenic threats and geopolitical pressures (e.g., infrastructure development and frail law enforcement).

Temporal and spatial patterns of fire activity in three biomes of Brazil

The trade-off between conservation of natural resources and agribusiness expansion is a constant challenge in Brazil. The fires used to promote agricultural expansion increased in the last decades. While studies linking annual fire occurrence and rainfall seasonality are common, the relationship between fires, land use, and land cover remains understudied. Here, we investigated the frequency of the fires and performed a trend analysis for monthly, seasonal, and annual fires in three different biomes: Cerrado, Pantanal, and Atlantic Forest. We used burned area and integrated models in distinct scales (interannual, intraseasonal, and monthly) using Probability Density Functions (PDFs). The best fitting was found for Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distribution at all three biomes from the several PDFs tested. We found the most fire in the Pantanal (wetlands), followed by Cerrado (Brazilian Savanna) and Atlantic Forest (Semideciduous Forest). Our findings indicated that land use and land cover trends changed over the years. There was a strong correlation between fire and agricultural areas, with increasing trends pointing to land conversion to agricultural areas in all biomes. The high probability of fire indicates that expanding agricultural areas through the conversion of natural biomes impacts several natural ecosystems, transforming land cover and land use. This land conversion is promoting more fires each year.

Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene

Tropical forests are complex systems containing myriad interactions and feedbacks with their biotic and abiotic environments, but as the world changes fast, the future of these ecosystems becomes increasingly uncertain. In particular, global stressors may unbalance the feedbacks that stabilize tropical forests, allowing other feedbacks to propel undesired changes in the whole ecosystem. Here, we review the scientific literature across various fields, compiling known interactions of tropical forests with their environment, including the global climate, rainfall, aerosols, fire, soils, fauna, and human activities. We identify 170 individual interactions among 32 elements that we present as a global tropical forest network, including countless feedback loops that may emerge from different combinations of interactions. We illustrate our findings with three cases involving urgent sustainability issues: (1) wildfires in wetlands of South America; (2) forest encroachment in African savanna landscapes; and (3) synergistic threats to the peatland forests of Borneo. Our findings reveal an unexplored world of feedbacks that shape the dynamics of tropical forests. The interactions and feedbacks identified here can guide future qualitative and quantitative research on the complexities of tropical forests, allowing societies to manage the nonlinear responses of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene.

Long-Term Landsat-Based Monthly Burned Area Dataset for the Brazilian Biomes Using Deep Learning

Fire is a significant agent of landscape transformation on Earth, and a dynamic and ephemeral process that is challenging to map. Difficulties include the seasonality of native vegetation in areas affected by fire, the high levels of spectral heterogeneity due to the spatial and temporal variability of the burned areas, distinct persistence of the fire signal, increase in cloud and smoke cover surrounding burned areas, and difficulty in detecting understory fire signals. To produce a large-scale time-series of burned area, a robust number of observations and a more efficient sampling strategy is needed. In order to overcome these challenges, we used a novel strategy based on a machine-learning algorithm to map monthly burned areas from 1985 to 2020 using Landsat-based annual quality mosaics retrieved from minimum NBR values. The annual mosaics integrated year-round observations of burned and unburned spectral data (i.e., RED, NIR, SWIR-1, and SWIR-2), and used them to train a Deep Neural Network model, which resulted in annual maps of areas burned by land use type for all six Brazilian biomes. The annual dataset was used to retrieve the frequency of the burned area, while the date on which the minimum NBR was captured in a year, was used to reconstruct 36 years of monthly burned area. Results of this effort indicated that 19.6% (1.6 million km2) of the Brazilian territory was burned from 1985 to 2020, with 61% of this area burned at least once. Most of the burning (83%) occurred between July and October. The Amazon and Cerrado, together, accounted for 85% of the area burned at least once in Brazil. Native vegetation was the land cover most affected by fire, representing 65% of the burned area, while the remaining 35% burned in areas dominated by anthropogenic land uses, mainly pasture. This novel dataset is crucial for understanding the spatial and long-term temporal dynamics of fire regimes that are fundamental for designing appropriate public policies for reducing and controlling fires in Brazil.

Modeling of the air temperature using the Extreme Value Theory for selected biomes in Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil)

This paper aims to find probabilities of extreme values of the air temperature for the Cerrado, Pantanal and Atlantic Forest biomes in Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil. In this case a maximum likelihood estimation was employed for the probability distributions fitting the extreme monthly air temperatures for 2007-2018. Using the Extreme Value Theory approach this work estimates three probability distributions: the Generalized Distribution of Extreme Values (GEV), the Gumbel (GUM) and the Log-Normal (LN). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the corrected Akaike criterion AIC _c , the Bayesian information criterion BIC, the root of the mean square error RMSE and the determination coefficient R ² were applied to measure the goodness-of-fit. The estimated distributions were used to calculate the probabilities of occurrence of maximum monthly air temperatures over 28-32 °C. Temperature predictions were done for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 30-, 50- and 100-year return periods. The GEV and GUM distributions are recommended to be used in the warmer months. In the coldest months, the LN distribution gave a better fit to a series of extreme air temperatures. Deforestation, combustion and extensive fires, and the related aerosol emissions contribute, alongside climate change, to the generation of extreme air temperatures in the studied biomes.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-022-02206-1.

Modeling of land use and land cover change dynamics for future projection of the Amazon number curve

The hydrological parameter Curve Number (CN) was projected in the future in a 30 m spatial resolution grid for the Amazon. Through the DINAMICA EGO platform, Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) were calibrated, simulated, validated, and projected for 2049 in a five-year time frame from 2009. The reclassified LULCs of 2009, 2014, and 2019 of the MapBiomas 5.0 project were used as input to DINAMICA EGO. Calibration was prepared using the 2009 and 2014 maps and the 2014 simulated map; the validation was carried out using the 2014 map, 2019, and 2019 simulated. In the calibration, the multiple window similarity values were all above 50% for the models of each basin, except for the Tapajós which was 40% in spatial resolution of 255 m. Validation values ranged between 36% and 76% at a spatial resolution of 255 m. Concerning the future projection of CN, the average CN of the Amazon region is equal to 77. The highest values of CN were found in the southern regions of the basins of the Xingu, Tapajós, Madeira, and throughout the basins of the Araguaia and Tocantins. In this Amazon region, in 2049, the areas of high CN will increase due to forest conversion to pasture/agriculture, implying larger runoff and flooding, including the urban areas, which will also expand. These floods will be intensified concerning those that already occur in the Amazon.

Widespread homogenization of plant communities in the Anthropocene

Native biodiversity decline and non-native species spread are major features of the Anthropocene. Both processes can drive biotic homogenization by reducing trait and phylogenetic differences in species assemblages between regions, thus diminishing the regional distinctiveness of biotas and likely have negative impacts on key ecosystem functions. However, a global assessment of this phenomenon is lacking. Here, using a dataset of >200,000 plant species, we demonstrate widespread and temporal decreases in species and phylogenetic turnover across grain sizes and spatial extents. The extent of homogenization within major biomes is pronounced and is overwhelmingly explained by non-native species naturalizations. Asia and North America are major sources of non-native species; however, the species they export tend to be phylogenetically close to recipient floras. Australia, the Pacific and Europe, in contrast, contribute fewer species to the global pool of non-natives, but represent a disproportionate amount of phylogenetic diversity. The timeline of most naturalisations coincides with widespread human migration within the last ~500 years, and demonstrates the profound influence humans exert on regional biotas beyond changes in species richness.

Human-driven movements and extinctions of species have made plant communities across biomes more homogenous. Here the authors quantify plant vascular species and phylogenetic homogenization across the globe, finding that non-native species naturalisations have been a major driver.

The Latent Dirichlet Allocation model with covariates (LDAcov): A case study on the effect of fire on species composition in Amazonian forests

Understanding and predicting the effect of global change phenomena on biodiversity is challenging given that biodiversity data are highly multivariate, containing information from tens to hundreds of species in any given location and time. The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model has been recently proposed to decompose biodiversity data into latent communities. While LDA is a very useful exploratory tool and overcomes several limitations of earlier methods, it has limited inferential and predictive skill given that covariates cannot be included in the model. We introduce a modified LDA model (called LDAcov) which allows the incorporation of covariates, enabling inference on the drivers of change of latent communities, spatial interpolation of results, and prediction based on future environmental change scenarios. We show with simulated data that our approach to fitting LDAcov is able to estimate well the number of groups and all model parameters. We illustrate LDAcov using data from two experimental studies on the long-term effects of fire on southeastern Amazonian forests in Brazil. Our results reveal that repeated fires can have a strong impact on plant assemblages, particularly if fuel is allowed to build up between consecutive fires. The effect of fire is exacerbated as distance to the edge of the forest decreases, with small-sized species and species with thin bark being impacted the most. These results highlight the compounding impacts of multiple fire events and fragmentation, a scenario commonly found across the southern edge of Amazon. We believe that LDAcov will be of wide interest to scientists studying the effect of global change phenomena on biodiversity using high-dimensional datasets. Thus, we developed the R package LDAcov to enable the straightforward use of this model.

Human-modified landscapes narrow the isotopic niche of neotropical birds

Deforestation and habitat loss resulting from land use changes are some of the utmost anthropogenic impacts that threaten tropical birds in human-modified landscapes (HMLs). The degree of these impacts on birds' diet, habitat use, and ecological niche can be measured by isotopic analysis. We investigated whether the isotopic niche width, food resources, and habitat use of bird trophic guilds differed between HMLs and natural landscapes (NLs) using stable carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen isotopes (δ¹⁵N). We analyzed feathers of 851 bird individuals from 28 landscapes in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We classified landscapes into two groups according to the percentage of forest cover (HMLs ≤ 30%; NLs ≥ 47%), and compared the isotopic niche width and mean values of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N for each guild between landscape types. The niches of frugivores, insectivores, nectarivores, and omnivores were narrower in HMLs, whereas granivores showed the opposite pattern. In HMLs, nectarivores showed a reduction of 44% in niche width, while granivores presented an expansion of 26%. Individuals in HMLs consumed more resources from agricultural areas (C₄ plants), but almost all guilds showed a preference for forest resources (C₃ plants) in both landscape types, except granivores. Degraded and fragmented landscapes typically present a lower availability of habitat and food resources for many species, which was reflected by the reduction in niche width of birds in HMLs. Therefore, to protect the diversity of guilds in HMLs, landscape management strategies that offer birds more diverse habitats must be implemented in tropical regions.

White-Sand Savannas Expand at the Core of the Amazon After Forest Wildfires

Across the tropics, climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, exposing tropical forests to the risk of shifting into an open vegetation state. A recent satellite analysis of the Amazon basin suggests this might happen first in floodplains where forests are particularly fragile. We studied floodplain landscapes of the middle Rio Negro, covering ~ 4100 km2 at the Central Amazon region, where forest ecosystems are dominant. We used Landsat images to map 40 years of wildfire history and test the hypothesis that repeatedly burnt forests fail to regenerate and can be replaced by white-sand savanna ecosystems. In the field, using a chronosequence of ‘time after the first fire’, we assessed changes in tree species composition, herbaceous cover and topsoil properties. Here we show that when these forests are repeatedly disturbed by wildfires, their soil gradually loses clay and nutrients and becomes increasingly sandy. In synchrony, native herbaceous cover expands, forest tree species disappear and white-sand savanna tree species become dominant. This drastic ecosystem shift happened within 40 years, likely accelerated by topsoil erosion. When recurrent fires maintain floodplain forests in an open vegetation state, topsoil erosion intensifies, transforming clay-rich soils into white-sand soils that may favour savanna tree species. Our findings reveal that white-sand savannas may expand through seasonally flooded ecosystems at the core of the Amazon, facilitated by wildfires.

Climate and land-use change will lead to a faunal "savannization" on tropical rainforests

Humans have fragmented, reduced or altered the biodiversity in tropical forests around the world. Climate and land-use change act synergistically, increasing drought and fire frequencies, converting several tropical rainforests into derived savannas, a phenomenon known as "savannization." Yet, we lack a full understanding of the faunal changes in response to the transformation of plant communities. We argue that the composition of vertebrate assemblages in ecotone regions of forest-savanna transitions from South America will be increasingly replaced by open savanna species, a phenomenon we name "faunal savannization." We combined projections from ecological niche models, habitat filter masks and dispersal simulations to forecast the distribution of 349 species of forest- and savanna-dwelling mammal species across South America. We found that the distribution of savanna species is likely to increase by 11%-30% and spread over lowland Amazon and Atlantic forests. Conversely, forest-specialists are expected to lose nearly 50% of their suitable ranges and to move toward core forest zones, which may thus receive an influx of more than 60 species on the move. Our findings indicate that South American ecotonal faunas might experience high rates of occupancy turnover, in a process parallel to that already experienced by plants. Climate-driven migrations of fauna in human-dominated landscapes will likely interact with fire-induced changes in plant communities to reshape the biodiversity in tropical rainforests worldwide.

Flammability thresholds or flammability gradients? Determinants of fire across savanna-forest transitions

Vegetation-fire feedbacks are important for determining the distribution of forest and savanna. To understand how vegetation structure controls these feedbacks, we quantified flammability across gradients of tree density from grassland to forest in the Brazilian Cerrado. We experimentally burned 102 plots, for which we measured vegetation structure, fuels, microclimate, ignition success and fire behavior. Tree density had strong negative effects on ignition success, rate of spread, fire-line intensity and flame height. Declining grass biomass was the principal cause of this decline in flammability as tree density increased, but increasing fuel moisture contributed. Although the response of flammability to tree cover often is portrayed as an abrupt, largely invariant threshold, we found the response to be gradual, with considerable variability driven largely by temporal changes in atmospheric humidity. Even when accounting for humidity, flammability at intermediate tree densities cannot be predicted reliably. Fire spread in savanna-forest mosaics is not as deterministic as often assumed, but may appear so where vegetation boundaries are already sharp. Where transitions are diffuse, fire spread is difficult to predict, but should become increasingly predictable over multiple fire cycles, as boundaries are progressively sharpened until flammability appears to respond in a threshold-like manner.

Relationship of Forest Cover Fragmentation and Drought with the Occurrence of Forest Fires in the Department of Santa Cruz, Bolivia

The forest fires of 2019 were among the most devastating ever recorded in Bolivia. In this study we analyze the relationship between forest fragmentation and meteorological drought with the spatial distribution of forest fires during that year in the Department of Santa Cruz, Bolivia. We carried out a classification of the natural vegetation using Landsat 8 satellite imagery. Forest fragmentation was defined according to the distribution of forest patch sizes and classified using seven categories; furthermore, distance to anthropogenically used areas and forest edges was quantified. Spatial patterns of meteorological drought severity were quantified using long-term series of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration. Areas burned during 2019 (July–December) were characterized by means of spectral indices (normalized burn ratio (NBR) and normalized delta burn ratio (dNBR)) and unsupervised classification methods (interactive self-organizing data analysis algorithm (ISODATA)). The results show that 61.9% of the total area burned occurred in large (>2,000,000 ha), relatively unfragmented patches. However, the highest proportion of fires (17.1%) occurred in relatively small patches (<20 ha). In addition, anthropogenically used zones and forest edges were most impacted by forest fires. Finally, the spatial patterns of drought severity also influenced the severity of forest fires.

Higher fire frequency impaired woody species regeneration in a south-eastern Amazonian forest

Understorey wildfires harm tropical forests by affecting natural regeneration, but the trajectories of fire-disturbed forests after disturbance are poorly understood. To fill this gap, we conducted experimental burns in a transitional forest between the Amazon forests and the Brazilian Savanna (Cerrado) and investigated their effects on plant community diversity of regeneration. The experiment consisted of three 50-ha plots that between 2004 and 2010 were burned either annually (six times), every three years (thrice) or not at all (Control). To evaluate early post-fire recovery, we recorded grass occurrence and regenerating stems (≤1 cm in diameter at breast height). We noted that high fire-frequency plots had a reduction of species richness (62%) and abundance (84%) and were associated with floristic and structural changes, dominance of few species and increase of grass colonization when compared with low fire-frequency. We observed that resprouts were the main pathway for forest restoration in both burned regimes, particularly in low fire-frequency. However, the forest can recover from fires by means of resprouting, until a threshold in fire frequency is reached, when resprouts and seedlings declined for most of the species, with a few fire-tolerant species becoming dominant.

Prolonged tropical forest degradation due to compounding disturbances: Implications for CO2 and H2 O fluxes

Drought, fire, and windstorms can interact to degrade tropical forests and the ecosystem services they provide, but how these forests recover after catastrophic disturbance events remains relatively unknown. Here, we analyze multi-year measurements of vegetation dynamics and function (fluxes of CO₂ and H₂ O) in forests recovering from 7 years of controlled burns, followed by wind disturbance. Located in southeast Amazonia, the experimental forest consists of three 50-ha plots burned annually, triennially, or not at all from 2004 to 2010. During the subsequent 6-year recovery period, postfire tree survivorship and biomass sharply declined, with aboveground C stocks decreasing by 70%-94% along forest edges (0-200 m into the forest) and 36%-40% in the forest interior. Vegetation regrowth in the forest understory triggered partial canopy closure (70%-80%) from 2010 to 2015. The composition and spatial distribution of grasses invading degraded forest evolved rapidly, likely because of the delayed mortality. Four years after the experimental fires ended (2014), the burned plots assimilated 36% less carbon than the Control, but net CO₂ exchange and evapotranspiration (ET) had fully recovered 7 years after the experimental fires ended (2017). Carbon uptake recovery occurred largely in response to increased light-use efficiency and reduced postfire respiration, whereas increased water use associated with postfire growth of new recruits and remaining trees explained the recovery in ET. Although the effects of interacting disturbances (e.g., fires, forest fragmentation, and blowdown events) on mortality and biomass persist over many years, the rapid recovery of carbon and water fluxes can help stabilize local climate.

Palaeo-trajectories of forest savannization in the southern Congo

Tropical savannah and forest are thought to represent alternative stable states in ecosystem structure in some climates. The implication is that biomes are maintained by positive feedbacks, e.g. with fire, and that historical distributions could play a role in determining modern ones. In this context, climate alone does not govern transitions between biomes, and understanding the causes and pathways of such transitions becomes crucial. Here, we use a multi-proxy analysis of a 2000-year core to evaluate modes of transition in vegetation structure and fire regimes. We demonstrate a first transition ca 1540 BP, when a cyclic fire regime entered a forested landscape, eventually resulting, by ca 1060 BP, in a transition to a more open savannah-like or mosaicked structure. This pattern may parallel currently accelerating fire regimes in tropical forests suggesting that fires can savannize forests, but perhaps more slowly than feared. Finally, ca 540 BP, a drought combined with anthropogenic influences resulted in a conclusive transition to savannah, probably resembling the modern landscape in the region. We show here that fire interacted with drought to transition forest to savannah, suggesting that disturbance by fire can be a major driver of biome change.

On the relationship between fire regime and vegetation structure in the tropics

We assessed data from 11 experiments examining the effects of the timing and/or frequency of fire on tropical forest and/or savanna vegetation structure over one decade or more. The initial 'control treatment' in many such cases consisted of previously cleared land. This is as opposed to natural vegetation subject to some sort of endogenous fire regime before the imposition of fire treatments. Effects of fire on fractional foliar cover are up to 10-fold greater when clearing pre-treatments are imposed. Moreover, because many of the 'classic' fire trials were initialised with applied management questions in mind, most have also used burning regimes much more frequent and/or severe than those occurring in the absence of human activity. Once these factors are taken into account, our modelling analysis shows that nonanthropogenic fire regimes serve to reduce canopy vegetative cover to a much lower extent than has previously been argued to be the case. These results call into question the notion that fire effects on tropical vegetation can be of a sufficient magnitude to maintain open-type savanna ecosystems under climatic/soil regimes otherwise sufficient to give rise to a more luxurious forest-type vegetation cover.

Scenarios in tropical forest degradation: carbon stock trajectories for REDD

BACKGROUND

Human-caused disturbance to tropical rainforests-such as logging and fire-causes substantial losses of carbon stocks. This is a critical issue to be addressed in the context of policy discussions to implement REDD+. This work reviews current scientific knowledge about the temporal dynamics of degradation-induced carbon emissions to describe common patterns of emissions from logging and fire across tropical forest regions. Using best available information, we: (i) develop short-term emissions factors (per area) for logging and fire degradation scenarios in tropical forests; and (ii) describe the temporal pattern of degradation emissions and recovery trajectory post logging and fire disturbance.

RESULTS

Average emissions from aboveground biomass were 19.9 MgC/ha for logging and 46.0 MgC/ha for fire disturbance, with an average period of study of 3.22 and 2.15 years post-disturbance, respectively. Longer-term studies of post-logging forest recovery suggest that biomass accumulates to pre-disturbance levels within a few decades. Very few studies exist on longer-term (>10 years) effects of fire disturbance in tropical rainforests, and recovery patterns over time are unknown.

CONCLUSIONS

This review will aid in understanding whether degradation emissions are a substantial component of country-level emissions portfolios, or whether these emissions would be offset by forest recovery and regeneration.

Clarifying the confusion: old-growth savannahs and tropical ecosystem degradation

Ancient tropical grassy biomes are often misrecognized as severely degraded forests. I trace this confusion to several factors, with roots in the nineteenth century, including misinterpretations of the nature of fire in savannahs, attempts to reconcile savannah ecology with Clementsian succession, use of physiognomic (structural) definitions of savannah and development of tropical degradation frameworks focused solely on forests. Towards clarity, I present two models that conceptualize the drivers of ecosystem degradation as operating in both savannahs and forests. These models highlight how human-induced environmental changes create ecosystems with superficially similar physiognomies but radically different conservation values. Given the limitation of physiognomy to differentiate savannahs from severely degraded forests, I present an alternative approach based on floristic composition. Data from eastern lowland Bolivia show that old-growth savannahs can be reliably distinguished by eight grass species and that species identity influences ecosystem flammability. I recommend that scientists incorporate savannahs in tropical degradation frameworks alongside forests, and that savannah be qualified as old-growth savannah in reference to ancient grassy biomes or derived savannah in reference to deforestation. These conceptual advances will require attention not only to tree cover, but also to savannah herbaceous plant species and their ecologies.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'.

Community owned solutions for fire management in tropical ecosystems: case studies from Indigenous communities of South America

Fire plays an increasingly significant role in tropical forest and savanna ecosystems, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and impacting on biodiversity. Emerging research shows the potential role of Indigenous land-use practices for controlling deforestation and reducing CO2 emissions. Analysis of satellite imagery suggests that Indigenous lands have the lowest incidence of wildfires, significantly contributing to maintaining carbon stocks and enhancing biodiversity. Yet acknowledgement of Indigenous peoples' role in fire management and control is limited, and in many cases dismissed, especially in policy-making circles. In this paper, we review existing data on Indigenous fire management and impact, focusing on examples from tropical forest and savanna ecosystems in Venezuela, Brazil and Guyana. We highlight how the complexities of community owned solutions for fire management are being lost as well as undermined by continued efforts on fire suppression and firefighting, and emerging approaches to incorporate Indigenous fire management into market- and incentive-based mechanisms for climate change mitigation. Our aim is to build a case for supporting Indigenous fire practices within all scales of decision-making by strengthening Indigenous knowledge systems to ensure more effective and sustainable fire management.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.

The biodiversity cost of carbon sequestration in tropical savanna

Tropical savannas have been increasingly viewed as an opportunity for carbon sequestration through fire suppression and afforestation, but insufficient attention has been given to the consequences for biodiversity. To evaluate the biodiversity costs of increasing carbon sequestration, we quantified changes in ecosystem carbon stocks and the associated changes in communities of plants and ants resulting from fire suppression in savannas of the Brazilian Cerrado, a global biodiversity hotspot. Fire suppression resulted in increased carbon stocks of 1.2 Mg ha-1 year-1 since 1986 but was associated with acute species loss. In sites fully encroached by forest, plant species richness declined by 27%, and ant richness declined by 35%. Richness of savanna specialists, the species most at risk of local extinction due to forest encroachment, declined by 67% for plants and 86% for ants. This loss highlights the important role of fire in maintaining biodiversity in tropical savannas, a role that is not reflected in current policies of fire suppression throughout the Brazilian Cerrado. In tropical grasslands and savannas throughout the tropics, carbon mitigation programs that promote forest cover cannot be assumed to provide net benefits for conservation.

Floodplains as an Achilles' heel of Amazonian forest resilience

The massive forests of central Amazonia are often considered relatively resilient against climatic variation, but this view is challenged by the wildfires invoked by recent droughts. The impact of such fires that spread from pervasive sources of ignition may reveal where forests are less likely to persist in a drier future. Here we combine field observations with remotely sensed information for the whole Amazon to show that the annually inundated lowland forests that run through the heart of the system may be trapped relatively easily into a fire-dominated savanna state. This lower forest resilience on floodplains is suggested by patterns of tree cover distribution across the basin, and supported by our field and remote sensing studies showing that floodplain fires have a stronger and longer-lasting impact on forest structure as well as soil fertility. Although floodplains cover only 14% of the Amazon basin, their fires can have substantial cascading effects because forests and peatlands may release large amounts of carbon, and wildfires can spread to adjacent uplands. Floodplains are thus an Achilles' heel of the Amazon system when it comes to the risk of large-scale climate-driven transitions.

The impacts of recurrent fires on diversity of fruit-feeding butterflies in a south-eastern Amazon forest

In the south-eastern Amazon, positive feedbacks between land use and severe weather events are increasing the frequency and intensity of fires, threatening local biodiversity. We sampled fruit-feeding butterflies in experimental plots in a south-eastern Amazon forest: one control plot, one plot burned every 3 y, one plot burned yearly. We also measured environmental parameters (canopy cover, temperature, humidity). Our results show no significant differences in overall species richness between plots (34, 37 and 33 species respectively), although richness was lower in burned plots during the dry season. We found significant differences in community composition and structure between control and burned plots, but not between burned treatments. In the control plot, forest-specialist species represented 64% of total abundance, decreasing to 50% in burned every 3 y and 54% in yearly burned plots. Savanna specialist species were absent in the control plot, but represented respectively 8% and 3% of total abundance in burned plots. The best predictor of the change in spatial community patterns and abundance of forest specialists was canopy cover. Although we found high resilience to forest burning in many species, our study suggests that fire disturbance can still be a threat to forest specialists due to changes in microclimate.

Land Use in LCA: Including Regionally Altered Precipitation to Quantify Ecosystem Damage

The incorporation of soil moisture regenerated by precipitation, or green water, into life cycle assessment has been of growing interest given the global importance of this resource for terrestrial ecosystems and food production. This paper proposes a new impact assessment model to relate land and water use in seasonally dry, semiarid, and arid regions where precipitation and evapotranspiration are closely coupled. We introduce the Precipitation Reduction Potential midpoint impact representing the change in downwind precipitation as a result of a land transformation and occupation activity. Then, our end-point impact model quantifies terrestrial ecosystem damage as a function of precipitation loss using a relationship between woody plant species richness, water and energy regimes. We then apply the midpoint and end-point models to the production of soybean in Southeastern Amazonia which has resulted from the expansion of cropland into tropical forest, with noted effects on local precipitation. Our proposed cause-effect chain represents a complementary approach to previous contributions which have focused on water consumption impacts and/or have represented evapotranspiration as a loss to the water cycle.

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map’s coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions.

Little effects of reduced-impact logging on insect communities in eastern Amazonia

Selective logging has become a major source of threats to tropical forest, bringing challenges for both ecologists and managers to develop low-impact forestry. Reduced-impact logging (RIL) is a prominent activity accounting for such forestry practices to prevent strong forest disturbances. Our aims were to evaluate the effects of RIL on insect communities of forested streams from Eastern Amazon and to test the hypothesis of negative effects of RIL on species richness, abundance, and functional feeding groups of aquatic insect assemblages. Neither of the evaluated metrics of the studied assemblages were negatively affected by RIL. Environmental metrics, such as substrate heterogeneity, woody canopy cover, and hill slope height, varied more among RIL streams than in reference streams, indicating a gradient according to logging impacts, and are suitable candidates to monitor RIL impacts in Amazonian streams. In addition, the PHI index also varied among REF and RIL, according to age class and year of logging, which could reflect trends to recover the forest structure after logging in a time frame of only 10 years. We conclude that RIL impacts have not had detrimental impacts on insect communities, but have changed little of the environmental conditions, especially of the riparian vegetation around streams.

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

Effects of tree harvest on the stable-state dynamics of savanna and forest

Contemporary theory on the maintenance and stability of the savanna biome has focused extensively on how climate and disturbances interact to affect tree growth and demography. In particular, the role of fire in reducing tree cover from climatic maxima is now well appreciated, and in certain cases, herbivory also strongly affects tree cover. However, in African savannas and forests, harvest of trees by humans for cooking and heating is an oft overlooked disturbance. Thus, we incorporate tree harvest into a population dynamic model of grasses, savanna saplings, savanna trees, and forest trees. We use assumptions about the differential demographic responses of savanna trees and forest trees to harvest to show how tree harvest influences tree cover, demography, and community composition. Tree harvest can erode the intrinsic basin of attraction for forest and make a state transition via fire to savanna more likely. The savanna state is generally resilient to all but high levels of tree harvest because of the resprouting abilities of savanna trees. In the absence of active fire suppression, our analysis suggests that we can expect to see large and potentially irreversible shifts from forest to savanna as demand increases for charcoal in sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, savanna tree species' traits promote savanna stability in the face of low to moderate harvest pressure.

New pasture plants intensify invasive species risk

Agricultural intensification is critical to meet global food demand, but intensification threatens native species and degrades ecosystems. Sustainable intensification (SI) is heralded as a new approach for enabling growth in agriculture while minimizing environmental impacts. However, the SI literature has overlooked a major environmental risk. Using data from eight countries on six continents, we show that few governments regulate conventionally bred pasture taxa to limit threats to natural areas, even though most agribusinesses promote taxa with substantial weed risk. New pasture taxa (including species, subspecies, varieties, cultivars, and plant-endophyte combinations) are bred with characteristics typical of invasive species and environmental weeds. By introducing novel genetic and endophyte variation, pasture taxa are imbued with additional capacity for invasion and environmental impact. New strategies to prevent future problems are urgently needed. We highlight opportunities for researchers, agribusiness, and consumers to reduce environmental risks associated with new pasture taxa. We also emphasize four main approaches that governments could consider as they build new policies to limit weed risks, including (i) national lists of taxa that are prohibited based on environmental risk; (ii) a weed risk assessment for all new taxa; (iii) a program to rapidly detect and control new taxa that invade natural areas; and (iv) the polluter-pays principle, so that if a taxon becomes an environmental weed, industry pays for its management. There is mounting pressure to increase livestock production. With foresight and planning, growth in agriculture can be achieved sustainably provided that the scope of SI expands to encompass environmental weed risks.