1
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Rousi H, Fält-Nardmann J, Niemelä P, Hänninen J. Changes in Atlantic climatic regulation mechanisms that underlie mesozooplankton biomass loss in the northern Baltic Sea. Heliyon 2024; 10:e31268. [PMID: 38803962 PMCID: PMC11128989 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e31268] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2023] [Revised: 04/19/2024] [Accepted: 05/14/2024] [Indexed: 05/29/2024] Open
Abstract
The effects of climate-induced, long-term changes on mesozooplankton biomasses were studied based on monitoring data collected since 1966 in the northern Baltic Sea. We found that the biomasses of marine and brackish mesozooplankton had decreased significantly from 1966 to 2019, and a remarkable biomass and functional biodiversity loss took place in the mesozooplankton community. Our results put emphasis on the impact of two climate-driven regime shifts for the region's mesozooplankton community. The regime shifts took place in 1975 and 1976 and in 1989 and 1990, and they were the most important factor behind the abrupt biomass changes for marine mesozooplankton and total and marine Copepoda. Only the latter regime shift influenced the biomasses of brackish Copepoda, marine Cladocera, and total Rotifera. The decreasing length of the ice-cover period drove the decrease of the biomass of limnic Limnocalanus macrurus (Copepoda), while the winter North Atlantic Oscillation was behind biomass changes in the total and the brackish Cladocera. These findings may have important implications for planktivorous fish, such as Baltic herring, particularly in terms of their impact on commercial fishing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heta Rousi
- Archipelago Research Institute, Biodiversity Unit, FI-20014, University of Turku, Finland
| | - Julia Fält-Nardmann
- Kevo Subarctic Research Institute, Biodiversity Unit, FI-20014, University of Turku, Finland
- Institute of Forest Zoology, Dresden University of Technology, Pienner Straße 7, D-01737, Finland
| | - Pekka Niemelä
- Institute of Dentistry, University of Turku, Lemminkäisenkatu 2, FI-20520, Turku, Finland
| | - Jari Hänninen
- Archipelago Research Institute, Biodiversity Unit, FI-20014, University of Turku, Finland
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2
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Ratnarajah L, Abu-Alhaija R, Atkinson A, Batten S, Bax NJ, Bernard KS, Canonico G, Cornils A, Everett JD, Grigoratou M, Ishak NHA, Johns D, Lombard F, Muxagata E, Ostle C, Pitois S, Richardson AJ, Schmidt K, Stemmann L, Swadling KM, Yang G, Yebra L. Monitoring and modelling marine zooplankton in a changing climate. Nat Commun 2023; 14:564. [PMID: 36732509 PMCID: PMC9895051 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36241-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2022] [Accepted: 01/20/2023] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Zooplankton are major consumers of phytoplankton primary production in marine ecosystems. As such, they represent a critical link for energy and matter transfer between phytoplankton and bacterioplankton to higher trophic levels and play an important role in global biogeochemical cycles. In this Review, we discuss key responses of zooplankton to ocean warming, including shifts in phenology, range, and body size, and assess the implications to the biological carbon pump and interactions with higher trophic levels. Our synthesis highlights key knowledge gaps and geographic gaps in monitoring coverage that need to be urgently addressed. We also discuss an integrated sampling approach that combines traditional and novel techniques to improve zooplankton observation for the benefit of monitoring zooplankton populations and modelling future scenarios under global changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lavenia Ratnarajah
- Integrated Marine Observing System, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. .,Global Ocean Observing System, International Oceanographic Commission, UNESCO, Paris, France.
| | - Rana Abu-Alhaija
- Cyprus Subsea Consulting and Services C.S.C.S. ltd, Lefkosia, Cyprus
| | - Angus Atkinson
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, PL1 3DH, Plymouth, UK
| | - Sonia Batten
- North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), 9860 West Saanich Road, V8L 4B2, Sidney, BC, Canada
| | | | - Kim S Bernard
- College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 104 CEOAS Admin Bldg., Corvallis, OR, 97330, USA
| | - Gabrielle Canonico
- US Integrated Ocean Observing System (US IOOS), NOAA, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Astrid Cornils
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Section Polar Biological Oceanography, Am Handelshafen 12, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - Jason D Everett
- School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD, Australia.,CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, 4067, Australia.,Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Maria Grigoratou
- Gulf of Maine Research Institute, 350 Commercial St, Portland, ME, 04101, USA.,Mercator Ocean International, 2 Av. de l'Aérodrome de Montaudran, 31400, Toulouse, France
| | - Nurul Huda Ahmad Ishak
- Faculty of Science and Marine Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia.,Institute of Oceanography and Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - David Johns
- The Marine Biological Association (MBA), The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UK
| | - Fabien Lombard
- Sorbonne Université, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche (LOV), Villefranche-sur-Mer, France.,Research Federation for the Study of Global Ocean Systems Ecology and Evolution, FR2022/Tara Oceans GOSEE, 75016, Paris, France.,Institut Universitaire de France, 75231, Paris, France
| | - Erik Muxagata
- Universidade Federal de Rio Grande - FURG - Laboratório de Zooplâncton - Instituto de Oceanografia, Av. Itália, Km 8 - Campus Carreiros, 96203-900, Rio Grande, RS, Brazil
| | - Clare Ostle
- The Marine Biological Association (MBA), The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UK
| | - Sophie Pitois
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Centre (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR330HT, UK
| | - Anthony J Richardson
- School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD, Australia.,CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, 4067, Australia
| | - Katrin Schmidt
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK
| | - Lars Stemmann
- Sorbonne Université, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche (LOV), Villefranche-sur-Mer, France
| | - Kerrie M Swadling
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies & Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Guang Yang
- Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 7 Nanhai Road, Qingdao, 266071, PR China
| | - Lidia Yebra
- Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga (IEO, CSIC), Puerto Pesquero s/n, 29640, Fuengirola, Spain
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3
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Sguotti C, Bischoff A, Conversi A, Mazzoldi C, Möllmann C, Barausse A. Stable landings mask irreversible community reorganizations in an overexploited Mediterranean ecosystem. J Anim Ecol 2022; 91:2465-2479. [PMID: 36415049 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13831] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2022] [Accepted: 09/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Cumulative human pressures and climate change can induce nonlinear discontinuous dynamics in ecosystems, known as regime shifts. Regime shifts typically imply hysteresis, a lacking or delayed system response when pressures are reverted, which can frustrate restoration efforts. Here, we investigate whether the northern Adriatic Sea fish and macroinvertebrate community, as depicted by commercial fishery landings, has undergone regime shifts over the last 40 years, and the reversibility of such changes. We use a stochastic cusp model to show that, under the interactive effect of fishing pressure and water warming, the community reorganized through discontinuous changes. We found that part of the community has now reached a new stable state, implying that a recovery towards previous baselines might be impossible. Interestingly, total landings remained constant across decades, masking the low resilience of the community. Our study reveals the importance of carefully assessing regime shifts and resilience in marine ecosystems under cumulative pressures and advocates for their inclusion into management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Camilla Sguotti
- Institute for Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IFM), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.,Department of Biology, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
| | - Aurelia Bischoff
- Institute for Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IFM), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Alessandra Conversi
- National Research Council of Italy, Marine Science Institute, CNR - ISMAR - LERICI, Forte Santa Teresa, Lerici, SP, Italy
| | - Carlotta Mazzoldi
- Department of Biology, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.,CoNISMa, National Inter-University Consortium for Marine Sciences, Rome, Italy
| | - Christian Möllmann
- Institute for Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science (IFM), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Alberto Barausse
- Department of Biology, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.,CoNISMa, National Inter-University Consortium for Marine Sciences, Rome, Italy
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4
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Longobardi L, Dubroca L, Margiotta F, Sarno D, Zingone A. Photoperiod-driven rhythms reveal multi-decadal stability of phytoplankton communities in a highly fluctuating coastal environment. Sci Rep 2022; 12:3908. [PMID: 35273208 PMCID: PMC8913669 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-07009-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2021] [Accepted: 02/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Phytoplankton play a pivotal role in global biogeochemical and trophic processes and provide essential ecosystem services. However, there is still no broad consensus on how and to what extent their community composition responds to environmental variability. Here, high-frequency oceanographic and biological data collected over more than 25 years in a coastal Mediterranean site are used to shed light on the temporal patterns of phytoplankton species and assemblages in their environmental context. Because of the proximity to the coast and due to large-scale variations, environmental conditions showed variability on the short and long-term scales. Nonetheless, an impressive regularity characterised the annual occurrence of phytoplankton species and their assemblages, which translated into their remarkable stability over decades. Photoperiod was the dominant factor related to community turnover and replacement, which points at a possible endogenous regulation of biological processes associated with species-specific phenological patterns, in analogy with terrestrial plants. These results highlight the considerable stability and resistance of phytoplankton communities in response to different environmental pressures, which contrast the view of these organisms as passively undergoing changes that occur at different temporal scales in their habitat, and show how, under certain conditions, biological processes may prevail over environmental forcing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lorenzo Longobardi
- Integrative Marine Ecology Department, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
| | - Laurent Dubroca
- Institut Français de Recherche Pour l'Exploitation de la Mer, IFREMER, Laboratoire Ressources Halieutiques de Port-en-Bessin, 14520, Port-en-Bessin-Huppain, France
| | - Francesca Margiotta
- Research Infrastructures for Marine Biological Resources Department, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy
| | - Diana Sarno
- Research Infrastructures for Marine Biological Resources Department, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy
| | - Adriana Zingone
- Integrative Marine Ecology Department, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy. .,Research Infrastructures for Marine Biological Resources Department, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Villa Comunale, 80121, Naples, Italy.
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5
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Ward D, Melbourne-Thomas J, Pecl GT, Evans K, Green M, McCormack PC, Novaglio C, Trebilco R, Bax N, Brasier MJ, Cavan EL, Edgar G, Hunt HL, Jansen J, Jones R, Lea MA, Makomere R, Mull C, Semmens JM, Shaw J, Tinch D, van Steveninck TJ, Layton C. Safeguarding marine life: conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems. REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES 2022; 32:65-100. [PMID: 35280238 PMCID: PMC8900478 DOI: 10.1007/s11160-022-09700-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2020] [Accepted: 01/25/2022] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Marine ecosystems and their associated biodiversity sustain life on Earth and hold intrinsic value. Critical marine ecosystem services include maintenance of global oxygen and carbon cycles, production of food and energy, and sustenance of human wellbeing. However marine ecosystems are swiftly being degraded due to the unsustainable use of marine environments and a rapidly changing climate. The fundamental challenge for the future is therefore to safeguard marine ecosystem biodiversity, function, and adaptive capacity whilst continuing to provide vital resources for the global population. Here, we use foresighting/hindcasting to consider two plausible futures towards 2030: a business-as-usual trajectory (i.e. continuation of current trends), and a more sustainable but technically achievable future in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We identify key drivers that differentiate these alternative futures and use these to develop an action pathway towards the desirable, more sustainable future. Key to achieving the more sustainable future will be establishing integrative (i.e. across jurisdictions and sectors), adaptive management that supports equitable and sustainable stewardship of marine environments. Conserving marine ecosystems will require recalibrating our social, financial, and industrial relationships with the marine environment. While a sustainable future requires long-term planning and commitment beyond 2030, immediate action is needed to avoid tipping points and avert trajectories of ecosystem decline. By acting now to optimise management and protection of marine ecosystems, building upon existing technologies, and conserving the remaining biodiversity, we can create the best opportunity for a sustainable future in 2030 and beyond.
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Affiliation(s)
- Delphi Ward
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Jessica Melbourne-Thomas
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Gretta T. Pecl
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Karen Evans
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Madeline Green
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Phillipa C. McCormack
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Adelaide Law School, The University of Adelaide, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA 5005 Australia
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Rowan Trebilco
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Narissa Bax
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute, Stanley, Falkland Islands
| | - Madeleine J. Brasier
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Emma L. Cavan
- Silwood Park Campus, Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Berkshire, SL5 7PY UK
| | - Graham Edgar
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Heather L. Hunt
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of New Brunswick, PO Box 5050, Saint John,, New Brunswick E2L 4L5 Canada
| | - Jan Jansen
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Russ Jones
- Hereditary Chief, Haida Nation, PO Box 1451, Skidegate, B.C. V0T 1S1 Canada
| | - Mary-Anne Lea
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Reuben Makomere
- Faculty of Law, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Chris Mull
- Integrated Fisheries Lab, Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2 Canada
| | - Jayson M. Semmens
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Janette Shaw
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Dugald Tinch
- Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Tatiana J. van Steveninck
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Carmabi, Caribbean Research and Management of Biodiversity, Piscaderabaai z/n, Willemstad, Curaçao
| | - Cayne Layton
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
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6
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Ward D, Melbourne-Thomas J, Pecl GT, Evans K, Green M, McCormack PC, Novaglio C, Trebilco R, Bax N, Brasier MJ, Cavan EL, Edgar G, Hunt HL, Jansen J, Jones R, Lea MA, Makomere R, Mull C, Semmens JM, Shaw J, Tinch D, van Steveninck TJ, Layton C. Safeguarding marine life: conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems. REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES 2022; 32:65-100. [PMID: 35280238 DOI: 10.22541/au.160513367.73706234/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2020] [Accepted: 01/25/2022] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Marine ecosystems and their associated biodiversity sustain life on Earth and hold intrinsic value. Critical marine ecosystem services include maintenance of global oxygen and carbon cycles, production of food and energy, and sustenance of human wellbeing. However marine ecosystems are swiftly being degraded due to the unsustainable use of marine environments and a rapidly changing climate. The fundamental challenge for the future is therefore to safeguard marine ecosystem biodiversity, function, and adaptive capacity whilst continuing to provide vital resources for the global population. Here, we use foresighting/hindcasting to consider two plausible futures towards 2030: a business-as-usual trajectory (i.e. continuation of current trends), and a more sustainable but technically achievable future in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We identify key drivers that differentiate these alternative futures and use these to develop an action pathway towards the desirable, more sustainable future. Key to achieving the more sustainable future will be establishing integrative (i.e. across jurisdictions and sectors), adaptive management that supports equitable and sustainable stewardship of marine environments. Conserving marine ecosystems will require recalibrating our social, financial, and industrial relationships with the marine environment. While a sustainable future requires long-term planning and commitment beyond 2030, immediate action is needed to avoid tipping points and avert trajectories of ecosystem decline. By acting now to optimise management and protection of marine ecosystems, building upon existing technologies, and conserving the remaining biodiversity, we can create the best opportunity for a sustainable future in 2030 and beyond.
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Affiliation(s)
- Delphi Ward
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Jessica Melbourne-Thomas
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Gretta T Pecl
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Karen Evans
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Madeline Green
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Phillipa C McCormack
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Adelaide Law School, The University of Adelaide, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA 5005 Australia
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Rowan Trebilco
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Narissa Bax
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute, Stanley, Falkland Islands
| | - Madeleine J Brasier
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Emma L Cavan
- Silwood Park Campus, Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Berkshire, SL5 7PY UK
| | - Graham Edgar
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Heather L Hunt
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of New Brunswick, PO Box 5050, Saint John,, New Brunswick E2L 4L5 Canada
| | - Jan Jansen
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Russ Jones
- Hereditary Chief, Haida Nation, PO Box 1451, Skidegate, B.C. V0T 1S1 Canada
| | - Mary-Anne Lea
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Reuben Makomere
- Faculty of Law, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Chris Mull
- Integrated Fisheries Lab, Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2 Canada
| | - Jayson M Semmens
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Janette Shaw
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Dugald Tinch
- Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Tatiana J van Steveninck
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Carmabi, Caribbean Research and Management of Biodiversity, Piscaderabaai z/n, Willemstad, Curaçao
| | - Cayne Layton
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Centre for Marine Socio-Ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
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7
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Hansen ES, Sandvik H, Erikstad KE, Yoccoz NG, Anker-Nilssen T, Bader J, Descamps S, Hodges K, Mesquita MDS, Reiertsen TK, Varpe Ø. Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:3753-3764. [PMID: 34031960 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15665] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2021] [Revised: 04/28/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The current warming of the oceans has been shown to have detrimental effects for a number of species. An understanding of the underlying mechanisms may be hampered by the non-linearity and non-stationarity of the relationships between temperature and demography, and by the insufficient length of available time series. Most demographic time series are too short to study the effects of climate on wildlife in the classical sense of meteorological patterns over at least 30 years. Here we present a harvest time series of Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) that goes back as far as 1880. It originates in the world's largest puffin colony, in southwest Iceland, which has recently experienced a strong decline. By estimating an annual chick production index for 128 years, we found prolonged periods of strong correlations between local sea surface temperature (SST) and chick production. The sign of decennial correlations switches three times during this period, where the phases of strong negative correlations between puffin productivity and SST correspond to the early 20th century Arctic warming period and to the most recent decades. Most of the variation (72%) in chick production is explained by a model in which productivity peaks at an SST of 7.1°C, clearly rejecting the assumption of a linear relationship. There is also evidence supporting non-stationarity: The SST at which puffins production peaked has increased by 0.24°C during the 20th century, although the increase in average SST during the same period has been more than three times faster. The best supported models indicate that the population's decline is at least partially caused by the increasing SST around Iceland.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erpur S Hansen
- South Iceland Nature Research Centre, Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland
| | - Hanno Sandvik
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Trondheim, Norway
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
| | - Kjell Einar Erikstad
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Tromsø, Norway
| | - Nigel G Yoccoz
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Tromsø, Norway
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Arctic University of Norway (UiT), Tromsø, Norway
| | | | - Jürgen Bader
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, NORCE, Bergen, Norway
| | | | - Kevin Hodges
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | | | | | - Øystein Varpe
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Bergen, Norway
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8
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Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave. Sci Rep 2021; 11:6235. [PMID: 33737519 PMCID: PMC7973763 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-83818-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2020] [Accepted: 02/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state.
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Nielsen JM, Rogers LA, Brodeur RD, Thompson AR, Auth TD, Deary AL, Duffy-Anderson JT, Galbraith M, Koslow JA, Perry RI. Responses of ichthyoplankton assemblages to the recent marine heatwave and previous climate fluctuations in several Northeast Pacific marine ecosystems. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:506-520. [PMID: 33107157 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2020] [Revised: 09/21/2020] [Accepted: 10/02/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
The effects of climate warming on ecosystem dynamics are widespread throughout the world's oceans. In the Northeast Pacific, large-scale climate patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and recently unprecedented warm ocean conditions from 2014 to 2016, referred to as a marine heatwave (MHW), resulted in large-scale ecosystem changes. Larval fishes quickly respond to environmental variability and are sensitive indicators of ecosystem change. Categorizing ichthyoplankton dynamics across marine ecosystem in the Northeast Pacific can help elucidate the magnitude of assemblage shifts, and whether responses are synchronous or alternatively governed by local responses to regional oceanographic conditions. We analyzed time-series data of ichthyoplankton abundances from four ecoregions in the Northeast Pacific ranging from subarctic to subtropical: the Gulf of Alaska (1981-2017), British Columbia (2001-2017), Oregon (1998-2017), and the southern California Current (1981-2017). We assessed the impact of the recent (2014-2016) MHW and how ichthyoplankton assemblages responded to past major climate perturbations since 1981 in these ecosystems. Our results indicate that the MHW caused widespread changes in the ichthyoplankton fauna along the coast of the Northeast Pacific Ocean, but impacts differed between marine ecosystems. For example, abundances for most dominant taxa were at all-time lows since the beginning of sampling in the Gulf of Alaska and British Columbia, while in Oregon and the southern California Current species richness increased as did abundances of species associated with warmer waters. Lastly, species associated with cold waters also increased in abundances close to shore in southern California during the MHW, a pattern that was distinctly different from previous El Niño events. We also found several large-scale, synchronized ichthyoplankton assemblage composition shifts during past major climate events. Current climate projections suggest that MHWs will become more intense and thus our findings can help project future changes in larval dynamics, allowing for improved ecosystem management decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jens M Nielsen
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lauren A Rogers
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Richard D Brodeur
- NOAA Fisheries Service, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR, USA
| | - Andrew R Thompson
- NOAA Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Toby D Auth
- Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR, USA
| | - Alison L Deary
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Janet T Duffy-Anderson
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Moira Galbraith
- Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pat Bay, BC, Canada
| | - J Anthony Koslow
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - R Ian Perry
- Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, BC, Canada
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10
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Denechaud C, Smoliński S, Geffen AJ, Godiksen JA, Campana SE. A century of fish growth in relation to climate change, population dynamics and exploitation. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:5661-5678. [PMID: 32741054 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15298] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2020] [Revised: 06/30/2020] [Accepted: 07/13/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Marine ecosystems, particularly in high-latitude regions such as the Arctic, have been significantly affected by human activities and contributions to climate change. Evaluating how fish populations responded to past changes in their environment is helpful for evaluating their future patterns, but is often hindered by the lack of long-term biological data available. Using otolith increments of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) as a proxy for individual growth, we developed a century-scale biochronology (1924-2014) based on the measurements of 3,894 fish, which revealed significant variations in cod growth over the last 91 years. We combined mixed-effect modeling and path analysis to relate these growth variations to selected climate, population and fishing-related factors. Cod growth was negatively related to cod population size and positively related to capelin population size, one of the most important prey items. This suggests that density-dependent effects are the main source of growth variability due to competition for resources and cannibalism. Growth was also positively correlated with warming sea temperatures but negatively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting contrasting effects of climate warming at different spatial scales. Fishing pressure had a significant but weak negative direct impact on growth. Additionally, path analysis revealed that the selected growth factors were interrelated. Capelin biomass was positively related to sea temperature and negatively influenced by herring biomass, while cod biomass was mainly driven by fishing mortality. Together, these results give a better understanding of how multiple interacting factors have shaped cod growth throughout a century, both directly and indirectly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Côme Denechaud
- Demersal Fish Research Group, Institute of Marine Research (HI), Bergen, Norway
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen (UiB), Bergen, Norway
| | - Szymon Smoliński
- Demersal Fish Research Group, Institute of Marine Research (HI), Bergen, Norway
| | - Audrey J Geffen
- Demersal Fish Research Group, Institute of Marine Research (HI), Bergen, Norway
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen (UiB), Bergen, Norway
| | - Jane A Godiksen
- Demersal Fish Research Group, Institute of Marine Research (HI), Bergen, Norway
| | - Steven E Campana
- Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
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11
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du Pontavice H, Gascuel D, Reygondeau G, Maureaud A, Cheung WWL. Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:1306-1318. [PMID: 31802576 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14944] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2019] [Revised: 11/12/2019] [Accepted: 11/13/2019] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life-history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency (TTE) and the biomass residence time (BRT) in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean TTE in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2100 under the 'no effective mitigation' representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), while BRT between trophic levels 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 years on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the TTEs and BRTs may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean TTE and BRT will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hubert du Pontavice
- Agrocampus Ouest, Ecology and Ecosystem Health Research Unit, Rennes, France
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Didier Gascuel
- Agrocampus Ouest, Ecology and Ecosystem Health Research Unit, Rennes, France
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Max Planck, Yale Center for Biodiversity Movement and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Aurore Maureaud
- Centre for Ocean Life, National Institute of Aquatic Resources (DTU Aqua), Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
| | - William W L Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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12
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Lauerburg RAM, Diekmann R, Blanz B, Gee K, Held H, Kannen A, Möllmann C, Probst WN, Rambo H, Cormier R, Stelzenmüller V. Socio-ecological vulnerability to tipping points: A review of empirical approaches and their use for marine management. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 705:135838. [PMID: 31855803 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2019] [Revised: 11/27/2019] [Accepted: 11/27/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Sustainability in the provision of ecosystem services requires understanding of the vulnerability of social-ecological systems (SES) to tipping points (TPs). Assessing SES vulnerability to abrupt ecosystem state changes remains challenging, however, because frameworks do not operationally link ecological, socio-economic and cultural elements of the SES. We conducted a targeted literature review on empirical assessments of SES and TPs in the marine realm and their use in ecosystem-based management. Our results revealed a plurality of terminologies, definitions and concepts that hampers practical operationalisation of these concepts. Furthermore, we found a striking lack of socio-cultural aspects in SES vulnerability assessments, possibly because of a lack of involvement of stakeholders and interest groups. We propose guiding principles for assessing vulnerability to TPs that build on participative approaches and prioritise the connectivity between SES components by accounting for component linkages, cascading effects and feedback processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- R A M Lauerburg
- Thünen-Institute of Sea Fisheries, Herwigstraße 31, 27572 Bremerhaven, Germany; University of Hamburg, Institute for Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science, Olbersweg 24, 22767 Hamburg, Germany.
| | - R Diekmann
- Thünen-Institute of Fisheries Ecology, Herwigstraße 31, 27572 Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - B Blanz
- University of Hamburg, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
| | - K Gee
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
| | - H Held
- University of Hamburg, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
| | - A Kannen
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
| | - C Möllmann
- University of Hamburg, Institute for Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science, Olbersweg 24, 22767 Hamburg, Germany
| | - W N Probst
- Thünen-Institute of Sea Fisheries, Herwigstraße 31, 27572 Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - H Rambo
- Thünen-Institute of Sea Fisheries, Herwigstraße 31, 27572 Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - R Cormier
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
| | - V Stelzenmüller
- Thünen-Institute of Sea Fisheries, Herwigstraße 31, 27572 Bremerhaven, Germany
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Bahlai CA, Zipkin EF. The Dynamic Shift Detector: An algorithm to identify changes in parameter values governing populations. PLoS Comput Biol 2020; 16:e1007542. [PMID: 31940344 PMCID: PMC6961891 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007542] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2019] [Accepted: 11/12/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Environmental factors interact with internal rules of population regulation, sometimes perturbing systems to alternate dynamics though changes in parameter values. Yet, pinpointing when such changes occur in naturally fluctuating populations is difficult. An algorithmic approach that can identify the timing and magnitude of parameter shifts would facilitate understanding of abrupt ecological transitions with potential to inform conservation and management of species. The “Dynamic Shift Detector” is an algorithm to identify changes in parameter values governing temporal fluctuations in populations with nonlinear dynamics. The algorithm examines population time series data for the presence, location, and magnitude of parameter shifts. It uses an iterative approach to fitting subsets of time series data, then ranks the fit of break point combinations using model selection, assigning a relative weight to each break. We examined the performance of the Dynamic Shift Detector with simulations and two case studies. Under low environmental/sampling noise, the break point sets selected by the Dynamic Shift Detector contained the true simulated breaks with 70–100% accuracy. The weighting tool generally assigned breaks intentionally placed in simulated data (i.e., true breaks) with weights averaging >0.8 and those due to sampling error (i.e., erroneous breaks) with weights averaging <0.2. In our case study examining an invasion process, the algorithm identified shifts in population cycling associated with variations in resource availability. The shifts identified for the conservation case study highlight a decline process that generally coincided with changing management practices affecting the availability of hostplant resources. When interpreted in the context of species biology, the Dynamic Shift Detector algorithm can aid management decisions and identify critical time periods related to species’ dynamics. In an era of rapid global change, such tools can provide key insights into the conditions under which population parameters, and their corresponding dynamics, can shift. Populations naturally fluctuate in abundance, and the rules governing these fluctuations are a result of both internal (density dependent) and external (environmental) processes. For these reasons, pinpointing when changes in populations occur is difficult. In this study, we develop a novel break-point analysis tool for population time series data. Using a density dependent model to describe a population’s underlying dynamic process, our tool iterates through all possible break point combinations (i.e., abrupt changes in parameter values) and applies information-theoretic decision tools (i.e. Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes) to determine best fits. Here, we develop the approach, simulate data under a variety of conditions to demonstrate its utility, and apply the tool to two case studies: an invasion of multicolored Asian ladybeetle and declining monarch butterflies. The Dynamic Shift Detector algorithm identified parameter changes that correspond to known environmental change events in both case studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christie A. Bahlai
- Department of Biological Sciences and Environmental Science and Design Research Initiative, Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Elise F. Zipkin
- Department of Integrative Biology; Program in Ecology, Evolutionary Biology and Behavior, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, United States of America
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14
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Meyer J, Kröncke I. Shifts in trait-based and taxonomic macrofauna community structure along a 27-year time-series in the south-eastern North Sea. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0226410. [PMID: 31851700 PMCID: PMC6919609 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0226410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2019] [Accepted: 11/26/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Current research revealed distinct changes in ecosystem functions, and thus in ecosystem stability and resilience, caused by changes in community structure and diversity loss. Benthic species play an important role in benthic-pelagic coupling, such as through the remineralization of deposited organic material, and changes to benthic community structure and diversity have associated with changes in ecosystem functioning, ecosystem stability and resilience. However, the long-term variability of traits and functions in benthic communities is largely unknown. By using abundance and bioturbation potential of macrofauna samples, taken along a transect from the German Bight towards the Dogger Bank in May 1990 and annually from 1995 to 2017, we analysed the taxonomic and trait-based macrofauna long-term community variability and diversity. Taxonomic and trait-based diversity remained stable over time, while three different regimes were found, characterised by changes in taxonomic and trait-based community structure. Min/max autocorrelation factor analysis revealed the climatic variables sea surface temperature (SST) and North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), nitrite, and epibenthic abundance as most important environmental drivers for taxonomic and trait-based community changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia Meyer
- Marine Research, Senckenberg am Meer, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
- Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment, Benthic Ecology, Oldenburg, Germany
- * E-mail:
| | - Ingrid Kröncke
- Marine Research, Senckenberg am Meer, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
- Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment, Benthic Ecology, Oldenburg, Germany
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15
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Bonomo S, Ferrante G, Palazzi E, Pelosi N, Lirer F, Viegi G, La Grutta S. Evidence for a link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and annual asthma mortality rates in the US. Sci Rep 2019; 9:11683. [PMID: 31406172 PMCID: PMC6690970 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-48178-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2019] [Accepted: 07/16/2019] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
An association between climatic conditions and asthma mortality has been widely assumed. However, it is unclear whether climatic variations have a fingerprint on asthma dynamics over long time intervals. The aim of this study is to detect a possible correlation between climatic indices, namely the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and asthma mortality rates over the period from 1950 to 2015 in the contiguous US. To this aim, an analysis of non-stationary and non-linear signals was performed on time series of US annual asthma mortality rates, AMO and PDO indices to search for characteristic periodicities. Results revealed that asthma death rates evaluated for four different age groups (5-14 yr; 15-24 yr; 25-34 yr; 35-44 yr) share the same pattern of fluctuation throughout the 1950-2015 time interval, but different trends, i.e. a positive (negative) trend for the two youngest (oldest) categories. Annual asthma death rates turned out to be correlated with the dynamics of the AMO, and also modulated by the PDO, sharing the same averaged ∼44 year-periodicity. The results of the current study suggest that, since climate patterns have proved to influence asthma mortality rates, they could be advisable in future studies aimed at elucidating the complex relationships between climate and asthma mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sergio Bonomo
- Istituto per la Ricerca e l'Innovazione Biomedica, National Research Council (CNR-IRIB), Via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146, Palermo, Italy
- Institute for Marine Sciences, National Research Council (CNR-ISMAR), Calata Porta di Massa, 80133, Napoli, Italy
- National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), Via della Faggiola 32, 52126, Pisa, Italy
| | - Giuliana Ferrante
- Dipartimento di Scienze per la Promozione della Salute, Materno-Infantile, di Medicina Interna e Specialistica di Eccellenza "G. D'Alessandro", University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
| | - Elisa Palazzi
- Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council (CNR-ISAC), Corso Fiume 4, I-10133, Torino, Italy
| | - Nicola Pelosi
- Institute for Marine Sciences, National Research Council (CNR-ISMAR), Calata Porta di Massa, 80133, Napoli, Italy
| | - Fabrizio Lirer
- Institute for Marine Sciences, National Research Council (CNR-ISMAR), Calata Porta di Massa, 80133, Napoli, Italy
| | - Giovanni Viegi
- Istituto per la Ricerca e l'Innovazione Biomedica, National Research Council (CNR-IRIB), Via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146, Palermo, Italy
| | - Stefania La Grutta
- Istituto per la Ricerca e l'Innovazione Biomedica, National Research Council (CNR-IRIB), Via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146, Palermo, Italy
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Crozier LG, McClure MM, Beechie T, Bograd SJ, Boughton DA, Carr M, Cooney TD, Dunham JB, Greene CM, Haltuch MA, Hazen EL, Holzer DM, Huff DD, Johnson RC, Jordan CE, Kaplan IC, Lindley ST, Mantua NJ, Moyle PB, Myers JM, Nelson MW, Spence BC, Weitkamp LA, Williams TH, Willis-Norton E. Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0217711. [PMID: 31339895 PMCID: PMC6655584 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217711] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2019] [Accepted: 05/16/2019] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa G. Crozier
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Michelle M. McClure
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Tim Beechie
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Steven J. Bograd
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, California, United States of America
| | - David A. Boughton
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Mark Carr
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Thomas D. Cooney
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Jason B. Dunham
- Forest & Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America
| | - Correigh M. Greene
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Melissa A. Haltuch
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Elliott L. Hazen
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, California, United States of America
| | - Damon M. Holzer
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - David D. Huff
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Rachel C. Johnson
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Center for Watershed Sciences, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Chris E. Jordan
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Isaac C. Kaplan
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Steven T. Lindley
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Nathan J. Mantua
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Peter B. Moyle
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - James M. Myers
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Mark W. Nelson
- ECS Federal, Inc. Under Contract to Office of Sustainable Fisheries, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Brian C. Spence
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Laurie A. Weitkamp
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Thomas H. Williams
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Ellen Willis-Norton
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
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Kröncke I, Neumann H, Dippner JW, Holbrook S, Lamy T, Miller R, Padedda BM, Pulina S, Reed DC, Reinikainen M, Satta CT, Sechi N, Soltwedel T, Suikkanen S, Lugliè A. Comparison of biological and ecological long-term trends related to northern hemisphere climate in different marine ecosystems. NATURE CONSERVATION 2019. [DOI: 10.3897/natureconservation.34.30209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Data from five sites of the International Long Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network in the North-Eastern Pacific, Western Arctic Ocean, Northern Baltic Sea, South-Eastern North Sea and in the Western Mediterranean Sea were analyzed by dynamic factor analysis (DFA) to trace common multi-year trends in abundance and composition of phytoplankton, benthic fauna and temperate reef fish. Multiannual trends were related to climate and environmental variables to study interactions. Two common trends in biological responses were detected, with temperature and climate indices as explanatory variables in four of the five LTER sites considered. Only one trend was observed at the fifth site, the Northern Baltic Sea, where no explanatory variables were identified. Our findings revealed quasi-synchronous biological shifts in the different marine ecosystems coincident with the 2000 climatic regime shift and provided evidence on a possible further biological shift around 2010. The observed biological modifications were coupled with abrupt or continuous increase in sea water and air temperature confirming the key-role of temperature in structuring marine communities.
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18
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Spear A, Duffy-Anderson J, Kimmel D, Napp J, Randall J, Stabeno P. Physical and biological drivers of zooplankton communities in the Chukchi Sea. Polar Biol 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-019-02498-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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19
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Rocha JC, Peterson G, Bodin Ö, Levin S. Cascading regime shifts within and across scales. Science 2018; 362:1379-1383. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aat7850] [Citation(s) in RCA: 142] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2018] [Accepted: 10/30/2018] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Regime shifts are large, abrupt, and persistent critical transitions in the function and structure of ecosystems. Yet, it is unknown how these transitions will interact, whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another or simply correlate at distant places. We explored two types of cascading effects: Domino effects create one-way dependencies, whereas hidden feedbacks produce two-way interactions. We compare them with the control case of driver sharing, which can induce correlations. Using 30 regime shifts described as networks, we show that 45% of regime shift pairwise combinations present at least one plausible structural interdependence. The likelihood of cascading effects depends on cross-scale interactions but differs for each type. Management of regime shifts should account for potential connections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan C. Rocha
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
- Beijer Institute, Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, Lilla Frescativägen 4A, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Garry Peterson
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Örjan Bodin
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Simon Levin
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
- Beijer Institute, Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, Lilla Frescativägen 4A, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, 106A Guyot Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544-1003, USA
- Resources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036, USA
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20
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Chiba S, Batten S, Martin CS, Ivory S, Miloslavich P, Weatherdon LV. Zooplankton monitoring to contribute towards addressing global biodiversity conservation challenges. JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH 2018; 40:509-518. [PMID: 30279615 PMCID: PMC6159525 DOI: 10.1093/plankt/fby030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2018] [Revised: 06/15/2018] [Accepted: 07/24/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Oceanographers have an increasing responsibility to ensure that the outcomes of scientific research are conveyed to the policy-making sphere to achieve conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity. Zooplankton monitoring projects have helped to increase our understanding of the processes by which marine ecosystems respond to climate change and other environmental variations, ranging from regional to global scales, and its scientific value is recognized in the contexts of fisheries, biodiversity and global change studies. Nevertheless, zooplankton data have rarely been used at policy level for conservation and management of marine ecosystems services. One way that this can be pragmatically and effectively achieved is via the development of zooplankton indicators, which could for instance contribute to filling in gaps in the suite of global indicators to track progress against the Aichi Biodiversity Targets of the United Nations Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2010-2020. This article begins by highlighting how under-represented the marine realm is within the current suite of global Aichi Target indicators. We then examine the potential to develop global indicators for relevant Aichi Targets, using existing zooplankton monitoring data, to address global biodiversity conservation challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sanae Chiba
- JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showamachi, Kanazawaku, Yokohama, Japan
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, UK
| | - Sonia Batten
- Marine Biological Association, c/o 4737 Vista View Cr, Nanaimo BC, Canada
| | - Corinne S Martin
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, UK
| | - Sarah Ivory
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, UK
| | - Patricia Miloslavich
- University of Tasmania, Private Bag 110, Hobart TAS, Australia
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB No 3, Townsville MC, QLD, Australia
- Universidad Simon Bolivar, Valle de Sartenejas, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Lauren V Weatherdon
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, UK
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21
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Ward DFL, Wotherspoon S, Melbourne-Thomas J, Haapkylä J, Johnson CR. Detecting ecological regime shifts from transect data. ECOL MONOGR 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Delphi F. L. Ward
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies; University of Tasmania; Private Bag 129 Hobart Tasmania 7001 Australia
- Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre; University of Tasmania; Private Bag 80 Hobart Tasmania 7001 Australia
| | - Simon Wotherspoon
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies; University of Tasmania; Private Bag 129 Hobart Tasmania 7001 Australia
- Australian Antarctic Division; Department of the Environment and Energy; 203 Channel Highway Kingston Tasmania 7050 Australia
| | - Jessica Melbourne-Thomas
- Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre; University of Tasmania; Private Bag 80 Hobart Tasmania 7001 Australia
- Australian Antarctic Division; Department of the Environment and Energy; 203 Channel Highway Kingston Tasmania 7050 Australia
| | - Jessica Haapkylä
- School of Marine and Tropical Biology; ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies; James Cook University; Townsville Queensland 4811 Australia
| | - Craig R. Johnson
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies; University of Tasmania; Private Bag 129 Hobart Tasmania 7001 Australia
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22
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Miloslavich P, Bax NJ, Simmons SE, Klein E, Appeltans W, Aburto-Oropeza O, Andersen Garcia M, Batten SD, Benedetti-Cecchi L, Checkley DM, Chiba S, Duffy JE, Dunn DC, Fischer A, Gunn J, Kudela R, Marsac F, Muller-Karger FE, Obura D, Shin YJ. Essential ocean variables for global sustained observations of biodiversity and ecosystem changes. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:2416-2433. [PMID: 29623683 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 54] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2017] [Revised: 02/06/2018] [Accepted: 02/07/2018] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Sustained observations of marine biodiversity and ecosystems focused on specific conservation and management problems are needed around the world to effectively mitigate or manage changes resulting from anthropogenic pressures. These observations, while complex and expensive, are required by the international scientific, governance and policy communities to provide baselines against which the effects of human pressures and climate change may be measured and reported, and resources allocated to implement solutions. To identify biological and ecological essential ocean variables (EOVs) for implementation within a global ocean observing system that is relevant for science, informs society, and technologically feasible, we used a driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model. We (1) examined relevant international agreements to identify societal drivers and pressures on marine resources and ecosystems, (2) evaluated the temporal and spatial scales of variables measured by 100+ observing programs, and (3) analysed the impact and scalability of these variables and how they contribute to address societal and scientific issues. EOVs were related to the status of ecosystem components (phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass and diversity, and abundance and distribution of fish, marine turtles, birds and mammals), and to the extent and health of ecosystems (cover and composition of hard coral, seagrass, mangrove and macroalgal canopy). Benthic invertebrate abundance and distribution and microbe diversity and biomass were identified as emerging EOVs to be developed based on emerging requirements and new technologies. The temporal scale at which any shifts in biological systems will be detected will vary across the EOVs, the properties being monitored and the length of the existing time-series. Global implementation to deliver useful products will require collaboration of the scientific and policy sectors and a significant commitment to improve human and infrastructure capacity across the globe, including the development of new, more automated observing technologies, and encouraging the application of international standards and best practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patricia Miloslavich
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas., Australia
- Departamento de Estudios Ambientales, Universidad Simón Bolívar, Caracas, Venezuela
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Qld, Australia
- Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia
| | - Nicholas J Bax
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas., Australia
- CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas., Australia
| | | | - Eduardo Klein
- Departamento de Estudios Ambientales, Universidad Simón Bolívar, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Ward Appeltans
- Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, IOC Project Office for IODE, Oostende, Belgium
| | - Octavio Aburto-Oropeza
- Marine Biology Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Melissa Andersen Garcia
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Office of International Affairs, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Sonia D Batten
- Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS), Nanaimo, BC, Canada
| | | | | | - Sanae Chiba
- UN Environment-World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
- Research and Development Center for Global Change (RCGC), JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
| | - J Emmett Duffy
- Tennenbaum Marine Observatories Network, Smithsonian Institution, Edgewater, MD, USA
| | - Daniel C Dunn
- Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Beaufort, NC, USA
| | - Albert Fischer
- Intergovermental Oceanographic Commission IOC/UNESCO, Paris, France
| | - John Gunn
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Qld, Australia
| | - Raphael Kudela
- Ocean Sciences Department, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
| | - Francis Marsac
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR MARBEC 248, Université Montpellier, Montpellier, France
- Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - Frank E Muller-Karger
- Institute for Marine Remote Sensing/IMaRS, College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
| | | | - Yunne-Jai Shin
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR MARBEC 248, Université Montpellier, Montpellier, France
- Department of Biological Sciences, Ma-Re Institute, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
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23
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Langbehn TJ, Varpe Ø. Sea-ice loss boosts visual search: fish foraging and changing pelagic interactions in polar oceans. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:5318-5330. [PMID: 28657128 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13797] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2016] [Accepted: 06/02/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Light is a central driver of biological processes and systems. Receding sea ice changes the lightscape of high-latitude oceans and more light will penetrate into the sea. This affects bottom-up control through primary productivity and top-down control through vision-based foraging. We model effects of sea-ice shading on visual search to develop a mechanistic understanding of how climate-driven sea-ice retreat affects predator-prey interactions. We adapt a prey encounter model for ice-covered waters, where prey-detection performance of planktivorous fish depends on the light cycle. We use hindcast sea-ice concentrations (past 35 years) and compare with a future no-ice scenario to project visual range along two south-north transects with different sea-ice distributions and seasonality, one through the Bering Sea and one through the Barents Sea. The transect approach captures the transition from sub-Arctic to Arctic ecosystems and allows for comparison of latitudinal differences between longitudes. We find that past sea-ice retreat has increased visual search at a rate of 2.7% to 4.2% per decade from the long-term mean; and for high latitudes, we predict a 16-fold increase in clearance rate. Top-down control is therefore predicted to intensify. Ecological and evolutionary consequences for polar marine communities and energy flows would follow, possibly also as tipping points and regime shifts. We expect species distributions to track the receding ice-edge, and in particular expect species with large migratory capacity to make foraging forays into high-latitude oceans. However, the extreme seasonality in photoperiod of high-latitude oceans may counteract such shifts and rather act as a zoogeographical filter limiting poleward range expansion. The provided mechanistic insights are relevant for pelagic ecosystems globally, including lakes where shifted distributions are seldom possible but where predator-prey consequences would be much related. As part of the discussion on photoperiodic implications for high-latitude range shifts, we provide a short review of studies linking physical drivers to latitudinal extent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tom J Langbehn
- Department of Biology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway
| | - Øystein Varpe
- University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway
- Akvaplan-niva, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
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24
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Bjorndal KA, Bolten AB, Chaloupka M, Saba VS, Bellini C, Marcovaldi MAG, Santos AJB, Bortolon LFW, Meylan AB, Meylan PA, Gray J, Hardy R, Brost B, Bresette M, Gorham JC, Connett S, Crouchley BVS, Dawson M, Hayes D, Diez CE, van Dam RP, Willis S, Nava M, Hart KM, Cherkiss MS, Crowder AG, Pollock C, Hillis-Starr Z, Muñoz Tenería FA, Herrera-Pavón R, Labrada-Martagón V, Lorences A, Negrete-Philippe A, Lamont MM, Foley AM, Bailey R, Carthy RR, Scarpino R, McMichael E, Provancha JA, Brooks A, Jardim A, López-Mendilaharsu M, González-Paredes D, Estrades A, Fallabrino A, Martínez-Souza G, Vélez-Rubio GM, Boulon RH, Collazo JA, Wershoven R, Guzmán Hernández V, Stringell TB, Sanghera A, Richardson PB, Broderick AC, Phillips Q, Calosso M, Claydon JAB, Metz TL, Gordon AL, Landry AM, Shaver DJ, Blumenthal J, Collyer L, Godley BJ, McGowan A, Witt MJ, Campbell CL, Lagueux CJ, Bethel TL, Kenyon L. Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:4556-4568. [PMID: 28378354 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2017] [Revised: 03/20/2017] [Accepted: 03/21/2017] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karen A Bjorndal
- Archie Carr Center for Sea Turtle Research and Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Alan B Bolten
- Archie Carr Center for Sea Turtle Research and Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Milani Chaloupka
- Ecological Modelling Services Pty Ltd, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
| | - Vincent S Saba
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Cláudio Bellini
- Centro TAMAR-ICMBio, CLBI - Parnamirim, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Anne B Meylan
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Peter A Meylan
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA
- Natural Sciences Collegium, Eckerd College, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
| | | | - Robert Hardy
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
| | - Beth Brost
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Mike Dawson
- Geronimo Program, St. George's School, Newport, RI, USA
| | - Deborah Hayes
- Geronimo Program, St. George's School, Newport, RI, USA
| | | | | | - Sue Willis
- Sea Turtle Conservation Bonaire, Kralendijk, Bonaire, Dutch Caribbean
| | - Mabel Nava
- Sea Turtle Conservation Bonaire, Kralendijk, Bonaire, Dutch Caribbean
| | - Kristen M Hart
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, Davie, FL, USA
| | - Michael S Cherkiss
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, Davie, FL, USA
| | - Andrew G Crowder
- Cherokee Nation Technologies, NSU Center for Collaborative Research, Davie, FL, USA
| | - Clayton Pollock
- National Park Service, Christiansted, St. Croix, Virgin Islands
| | | | - Fernando A Muñoz Tenería
- Facultad de Agronomía y Veterinaria, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, San Luis Potosí, México
| | | | | | - Armando Lorences
- Dirección de Ecología Municipio de Solidaridad, Quintana Roo, México
| | | | - Margaret M Lamont
- US Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Allen M Foley
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Jacksonville Field Laboratory, Jacksonville, FL, USA
| | - Rhonda Bailey
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
| | - Raymond R Carthy
- US Geological Survey, Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Russell Scarpino
- Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Erin McMichael
- Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Jane A Provancha
- Environmental Services, Integrated Mission Support Services, Kennedy Space Center, Florida, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Jaime A Collazo
- U.S. Geological Survey, North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | | | | | - Thomas B Stringell
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | | | | | - Annette C Broderick
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Quinton Phillips
- Department of Environment and Coastal Resources, National Environment Centre, Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands
| | - Marta Calosso
- The School for Field Studies, Center for Marine Resource Studies, South Caicos, Turks and Caicos Islands
| | - John A B Claydon
- Department of Environment and Coastal Resources, National Environment Centre, Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands
| | - Tasha L Metz
- Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX, USA
| | - Amanda L Gordon
- Environmental Institute of Houston, University of Houston - Clear Lake, Houston, TX, USA
| | | | | | | | - Lucy Collyer
- Department of Environment, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
| | - Brendan J Godley
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Andrew McGowan
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Matthew J Witt
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Cathi L Campbell
- Archie Carr Center for Sea Turtle Research and Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Cynthia J Lagueux
- Archie Carr Center for Sea Turtle Research and Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | - Lory Kenyon
- Elbow Reef Lighthouse Society, Abaco, The Bahamas
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Descamps S, Anker-Nilssen T, Barrett RT, Irons DB, Merkel F, Robertson GJ, Yoccoz NG, Mallory ML, Montevecchi WA, Boertmann D, Artukhin Y, Christensen-Dalsgaard S, Erikstad KE, Gilchrist HG, Labansen AL, Lorentsen SH, Mosbech A, Olsen B, Petersen A, Rail JF, Renner HM, Strøm H, Systad GH, Wilhelm SI, Zelenskaya L. Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:3770-3780. [PMID: 28387042 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13715] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2016] [Accepted: 03/27/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Robert T Barrett
- Department of Natural Sciences, Tromsø University Museum, Tromsø, Norway
| | - David B Irons
- Migratory Bird Management, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage, AK, USA
| | - Flemming Merkel
- Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Nuuk, Greenland
- Department Bioscience, Arctic Research Center, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | | | - Nigel G Yoccoz
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Mark L Mallory
- Department of Biology, Acadia University, Wolfville, NS, Canada
| | - William A Montevecchi
- Departments of Psychology and Biology and Ocean Sciences Centre, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada
| | - David Boertmann
- Department Bioscience, Arctic Research Center, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Yuri Artukhin
- Kamchatka Branch of the Pacific Geographical Institute, Far-Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlosk-Kamchatsky, Russia
| | - Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Biology, Norwegian Institute of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Kjell-Einar Erikstad
- Fram Centre, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Tromsø, Norway
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
| | - H Grant Gilchrist
- National Wildlife Research Center, Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | | | | | - Anders Mosbech
- Department Bioscience, Arctic Research Center, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Bergur Olsen
- Faroe Marine Research Institute, Tórshavn, Faroe Islands
| | | | | | - Heather M Renner
- Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Homer, AK, USA
| | | | - Geir H Systad
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim, Norway
| | | | - Larisa Zelenskaya
- Institute for Biological Problems of the North, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan, Russia
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26
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Chaalali A, Beaugrand G, Raybaud V, Lassalle G, Saint-Béat B, Le Loc’h F, Bopp L, Tecchio S, Safi G, Chifflet M, Lobry J, Niquil N. From species distributions to ecosystem structure and function: A methodological perspective. Ecol Modell 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.04.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
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27
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Large scale, synchronous variability of marine fish populations driven by commercial exploitation. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2016; 113:8248-53. [PMID: 27382163 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1602325113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Synchronous variations in the abundance of geographically distinct marine fish populations are known to occur across spatial scales on the order of 1,000 km and greater. The prevailing assumption is that this large-scale coherent variability is a response to coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics, commonly represented by climate indexes, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. On the other hand, it has been suggested that exploitation might contribute to this coherent variability. This possibility has been generally ignored or dismissed on the grounds that exploitation is unlikely to operate synchronously at such large spatial scales. Our analysis of adult fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass of 22 North Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks revealed that both the temporal and spatial scales in fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass were equivalent to those of the climate drivers. From these results, we conclude that greater consideration must be given to the potential of exploitation as a driving force behind broad, coherent variability of heavily exploited fish species.
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Reid PC, Hari RE, Beaugrand G, Livingstone DM, Marty C, Straile D, Barichivich J, Goberville E, Adrian R, Aono Y, Brown R, Foster J, Groisman P, Hélaouët P, Hsu H, Kirby R, Knight J, Kraberg A, Li J, Lo T, Myneni RB, North RP, Pounds JA, Sparks T, Stübi R, Tian Y, Wiltshire KH, Xiao D, Zhu Z. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2016; 22:682-703. [PMID: 26598217 PMCID: PMC4738433 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2015] [Accepted: 09/03/2015] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.
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Möllmann C, Folke C, Edwards M, Conversi A. Marine regime shifts around the globe: theory, drivers and impacts. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2015; 370:20130260. [PMCID: PMC4247398 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/02/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Christian Möllmann
- Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg, Grosse Elbstrasse 133, 22767 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Carl Folke
- Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, PO Box 50005, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Martin Edwards
- SAHFOS, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
| | - Alessandra Conversi
- SAHFOS, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
- Institute of Marine Sciences ISMAR, National Research Council of Italy CNR, Forte Santa Teresa, Loc Pozzuolo, Lerici, 19032 La Spezia, Italy
- Centre for Marine and Coastal Policy Research, Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
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Conversi A, Dakos V, Gårdmark A, Ling S, Folke C, Mumby PJ, Greene C, Edwards M, Blenckner T, Casini M, Pershing A, Möllmann C. A holistic view of marine regime shifts. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2015; 370:20130279. [PMCID: PMC4247413 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alessandra Conversi
- Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council of Italy, Forte Santa Teresa, Loc Pozzuolo, Lerici, La Spezia 19032, Italy
- Centre for Marine and Coastal Policy, Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
- SAHFOS, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
| | - Vasilis Dakos
- Integrative Ecology Group, Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Américo Vespucio s/n, Sevilla 41092, Spain
| | - Anna Gårdmark
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Institute of Coastal Research, Skolgatan 6, Öregrund 742 42, Sweden
| | - Scott Ling
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, HOBART TAS 7001, Tasmania
| | - Carl Folke
- Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, PO Box 50005, Stockholm 104 05, Sweden
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden
| | - Peter J. Mumby
- Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia
| | - Charles Greene
- Ocean Resources and Ecosystems Program, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, NY, USA
| | - Martin Edwards
- SAHFOS, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
| | - Thorsten Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden
| | - Michele Casini
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Marine Research, Turistgatan 5, Lysekil 45330, Sweden
| | - Andrew Pershing
- Gulf of Maine Research Institute, 350 Commercial Street, Portland, ME 04101, USA
| | - Christian Möllmann
- Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg, Grosse Elbstrasse 133, Hamburg 22767, Germany
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Pershing AJ, Mills KE, Record NR, Stamieszkin K, Wurtzell KV, Byron CJ, Fitzpatrick D, Golet WJ, Koob E. Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2015; 370:20130265. [PMCID: PMC4247402 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/02/2023] Open
Abstract
In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew J. Pershing
- School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA
- Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME 04101, USA
| | - Katherine E. Mills
- School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA
- Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME 04101, USA
| | | | - Karen Stamieszkin
- School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA
- Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME 04101, USA
| | - Katharine V. Wurtzell
- School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA
- Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME 04101, USA
| | - Carrie J. Byron
- Marine Science Center, University of New England, Biddeford, ME 04005, USA
| | - Dominic Fitzpatrick
- School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA
- Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME 04101, USA
| | - Walter J. Golet
- School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA
- Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME 04101, USA
| | - Elise Koob
- School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA
- Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME 04101, USA
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Österblom H, Folke C. Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2015; 370:20130278. [PMCID: PMC4247412 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0278] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and global fishing activities of the Soviet Union. Our investigation of official catch statistics reflects that the Soviet Union was a major fishing actor in all large marine ecosystems where regime shifts have been documented, including in ecosystems where overfishing has been established as a key driver of these changes (in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Scotian Shelf). Globalization of Soviet Union fishing activities pushed exploitation to radically new levels and triggered regional and global governance responses for improved management. Since then, exploitation levels have remained and increased with new actors involved. Based on our exploratory work, we propose that a deeper understanding of the role of global fishing actors is central for improved management of marine ecosystems.
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Fisher JAD, Casini M, Frank KT, Möllmann C, Leggett WC, Daskalov G. The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2015; 370:20130271. [PMCID: PMC4247406 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator–prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.
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Affiliation(s)
- J. A. D. Fisher
- Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute of Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, CanadaA1C 5R3
| | - M. Casini
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Marine Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lysekil 54330, Sweden
| | - K. T. Frank
- Ocean Sciences Division, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, CanadaB2Y 4A2
| | - C. Möllmann
- Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Sciences, University of Hamburg, Hamburg 22767, Germany
| | - W. C. Leggett
- Department of Biology, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, CanadaK7L 3N6
| | - G. Daskalov
- Department of Aquatic Ecosystems, Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria
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