Barriers to globally invasive species are weakening across the Antarctic

Kelp holdfast microclimates buffer invertebrate inhabitants from extreme temperatures

Climate change is altering environmental conditions, with microclimates providing small-scale refuges within otherwise challenging environments. Durvillaea (southern bull kelp; rimurapa) is a genus of large intertidal fucoid algae, and some species harbour diverse invertebrate communities in their holdfasts. We hypothesised that animal-excavated Durvillaea holdfasts provide a thermal refuge for epibiont species, and tested this hypothesis using the exemplar species D. poha. Using a southern Aotearoa New Zealand population as a case-study, we found extreme temperatures outside the holdfast were 4.4 °C higher in summer and 6.9 °C lower in winter than inside the holdfast. A microclimate model of the holdfasts was built and used to forecast microclimates under 2100 conditions. Temperatures are predicted to increase by 2-3 °C, which may exceed the tolerances of D. poha. However, if D. poha or a similar congeneric persists, temperatures inside holdfasts will remain less extreme than the external environment. The thermal tolerances of two Durvillaea-associated invertebrates, the trochid gastropod Cantharidus antipodum and the amphipod Parawaldeckia kidderi, were also assessed; C. antipodum, but not P. kidderi, displayed metabolic depression at temperatures above and below those inside holdfasts, suggesting that they would be vulnerable outside the holdfast and with future warming. Microclimates, such as those within D. poha holdfasts or holdfasts of similar species, will therefore be important refuges for the survival of species both at the northern (retreating edge) and southern (expanding edge) limits of their distributions.

Intra and interspecific differences in desiccation tolerance in native and alien Antarctic springtails in geothermal grounds

The extreme low humidity and temperatures in Antarctica make it one of the harsher areas for life on our planet. In a global change context, environmental barriers that prevented the arrival of alien species in Antarctica are weakening. Deception Island, one of the four active volcanoes of Antarctica, is especially vulnerable to the impacts of alien species. Geothermal areas (GA) in this Island offer unique microclimatic conditions that could differentially affect native and alien soil arthropods. Here we explore the desiccation tolerance of a native (Cryptopygus antarcticus) and an alien (Proisotoma minuta) springtail (Collembola) species to these extreme environmental conditions. GA and non-geothermal areas (NGA) were selected to evaluate intra- and interspecific variation in desiccation tolerance. Populations of P. minuta from GA had greater desiccation tolerance than populations from NGA. However, desiccation tolerance of C. antarcticus did not differ between GA and NGA. This native species had greater desiccation tolerance than the alien P. minuta, but also greater body size. Our findings show that the alien P. minuta responds differently to environmental conditions than the native C. antarcticus. Furthermore, body size may influence desiccation tolerance in these two springtail species.

Quantifying the probability of a successful marine bioinvasion due to source-destination risk factors

The increasing spread of marine non-indigenous species (NIS) due to the growth in global shipping traffic is causing widespread concern for the ecological and economic impacts of marine bioinvasions. Risk management authorities need tools to identify pathways and source regions of priority concern to better target efforts for preventing NIS introduction. The probability of a successful NIS introduction is affected by the likelihood that a marine species entrained in a transport vector will survive the voyage between origin and destination locations and establish an independently reproducing population at the destination. Three important risk factors are voyage duration, range of environmental conditions encountered during transit and environmental similarity between origin and destination. In this study, we aimed for a globally comprehensive approach to assembling quantifications of source-destination risk factors from every potential origin to every potential destination. To derive estimates of voyage-related marine biosecurity risk, we used computer-simulated vessel paths between pairs of ecoprovinces in the Marine Ecoregions Of the World biogeographic classification system. We used the physical length of each path to calculate voyage duration risk and the cross-latitudinal extent of the path to calculate voyage path risk. Environmental similarity risk was based on comparing annual average sea surface temperature and salinity within each ecoprovince to those of other ecoprovinces. We derived three separate sets of risk quantifications, one each for voyage duration, voyage path and environmental similarity. Our quantifications can be applied to studies that require source-destination risk estimates. They can be used separately or combined, depending on the importance of the types of source-destination risks that might be relevant to particular scientific or risk management questions or applications.

Southward migration of the zero-degree isotherm latitude over the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Peninsula: Cryospheric, biotic and societal implications

The seasonal movement of the zero-degree isotherm across the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Peninsula drives major changes in the physical and biological processes around maritime Antarctica. These include spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation phase, snow accumulation and melt, thawing and freezing of the active layer of the permafrost, glacier mass balance variations, sea ice mass balance and changes in physiological processes of biodiversity. Here, we characterize the historical seasonal southward movement of the monthly near-surface zero-degree isotherm latitude (ZIL), and quantify the velocity of migration in the context of climate change using climate reanalyses and projections. From 1957 to 2020, the ZIL exhibited a significant southward shift of 16.8 km decade-1 around Antarctica and of 23.8 km decade-1 in the Antarctic Peninsula, substantially faster than the global mean velocity of temperature change of 4.2 km decade-1, with only a small fraction being attributed to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). CMIP6 models reproduce the trends observed from 1957 to 2014 and predict a further southward migration around Antarctica of 24 ± 12 km decade-1 and 50 ± 19 km decade-1 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The southward migration of the ZIL is expected to have major impacts on the cryosphere, especially on the precipitation phase, snow accumulation and in peripheral glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula, with more uncertain changes on permafrost, ice sheets and shelves, and sea ice. Longer periods of temperatures above 0 °C threshold will extend active biological periods in terrestrial ecosystems and will reduce the extent of oceanic ice cover, changing phenologies as well as areas of productivity in marine ecosystems, especially those located on the sea ice edge.

An outsider on the Antarctic Peninsula: A new record of the non-native moth Plodia interpunctella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae)

We report the first record of the microlepidopteran Plodia interpunctella beyond the South Shetland Islands at the Chilean Yelcho scientific station (64°52'33.1428″ S; 63°35'1.9572″ W), Doumer Island, close to the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. It is notable that P. interpunctella, a globally distributed stored product pest species, exhibits a remarkable capacity for prolonged viability within food storage facilities. The dual challenges of food transportation and storage in the context of Antarctica's challenging operational conditions may have facilitated P. interpunctella's initial arrival to the Antarctic region. Non-perishable food items, such as grains, flour and rice, provide practical options for the bulk food transportation and storage required in the long-term operation of Antarctic research stations. The presence of P. interpunctella in Antarctica, even if restricted to synanthropic environments within buildings, is a clear threat to Antarctic biodiversity, not only through being an invasive species itself but also as a potential vector for other non-native species (bacteria, acari, between others.), which could carry diseases to the native species.

Density-dependent predatory impacts of an invasive beetle across a subantarctic archipelago

Biological invasions represent a major threat to biodiversity, especially in cold insular environments characterized by high levels of endemism and low species diversity which are heavily impacted by global warming. Terrestrial invertebrates are very responsive to environmental changes, and native terrestrial invertebrates from cold islands tend to be naive to novel predators. Therefore, understanding the relationships between predators and prey in the context of global changes is essential for the management of these areas, particularly in the case of non-native predators. Merizodus soledadinus (Guérin-Méneville, 1830) is an invasive non-native insect species present on two subantarctic archipelagos, where it has extensive distribution and increasing impacts. While the biology of M. soledadinus has recently received attention, its trophic interactions have been less examined. We investigated how characteristics of M. soledadinus, its density, as well as prey density influence its predation rate on the Kerguelen Islands where the temporal evolution of its geographic distribution is precisely known. Our results show that M. soledadinus can have high ecological impacts on insect communities when present in high densities regardless of its residence time, consistent with the observed decline of the native fauna of the Kerguelen Islands in other studies. Special attention should be paid to limiting factors enhancing its dispersal and improving biosecurity for invasive insect species.

Recent advances in availability and synthesis of the economic costs of biological invasions

Biological invasions are a global challenge that has received insufficient attention. Recently available cost syntheses have provided policy- and decision makers with reliable and up-to-date information on the economic impacts of biological invasions, aiming to motivate effective management. The resultant InvaCost database is now publicly and freely accessible and enables rapid extraction of monetary cost information. This has facilitated knowledge sharing, developed a more integrated and multidisciplinary network of researchers, and forged multidisciplinary collaborations among diverse organizations and stakeholders. Over 50 scientific publications so far have used the database and have provided detailed assessments of invasion costs across geographic, taxonomic, and spatiotemporal scales. These studies have provided important information that can guide future policy and legislative decisions on the management of biological invasions while simultaneously attracting public and media attention. We provide an overview of the improved availability, reliability, standardization, and defragmentation of monetary costs; discuss how this has enhanced invasion science as a discipline; and outline directions for future development.

Human footprint on the water quality from the northern Antarctic Peninsula region

This study assessed the human footprint on the chemical pollution of Antarctic waters by characterizing inorganic chemicals and selected organic anthropogenic contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in inland freshwater and coastal seawater and the associated ecotoxicological risk. Nicotine and tolytriazole, present in 74% and 89% of the samples analyzed, respectively, were the most ubiquitous CECs in the investigated area. The most abundant CECs were citalopram, clarithromycin, and nicotine with concentrations reaching 292, 173, and 146 ng/L, respectively. The spatial distribution of CECs was not linked to any water characteristic or inorganic component. The contamination pattern by CECs in inland freshwater varied among locations, whereas it was very similar in coastal seawater. This suggests that concentrations in inland freshwater may be ruled by environmental processes (reemission from ice, atmospheric deposition, limited photo- and biodegradation processes, etc.) in addition to human activities. Following risk assessment, citalopram, clarithromycin, nicotine, venlafaxine, and hydrochlorothiazide should be considered of concern in this area, and hence, included in future monitoring of Antarctic waters and biota. This work provides evidence on the fact that current measures taken to protect the pristine environment of Antarctica from human activities are not effective to avoid CEC spread in its aquatic environment.

Introduced and invasive alien species of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean Islands

Open data on biological invasions are particularly critical in regions that are co-governed and/or where multiple independent parties have responsibility for preventing and controlling invasive alien species. The Antarctic is one such region where, in spite of multiple examples of invasion policy and management success, open, centralised data are not yet available. This dataset provides current and comprehensive information available on the identity, localities, establishment, eradication status, dates of introduction, habitat, and evidence of impact of known introduced and invasive alien species for the terrestrial and freshwater Antarctic and Southern Ocean region. It includes 3066 records for 1204 taxa and 36 individual localities. The evidence indicates that close to half of these species are not having an invasive impact, and that ~ 13% of records are of species considered locally invasive. The data are provided using current biodiversity and invasive alien species data and terminology standards. They provide a baseline for updating and maintaining the foundational knowledge needed to halt the rapidly growing risk of biological invasion in the region.

Forecasting the future of life in Antarctica

Antarctic ecosystems are under increasing anthropogenic pressure, but efforts to predict the responses of Antarctic biodiversity to environmental change are hindered by considerable data challenges. Here, we illustrate how novel data capture technologies provide exciting opportunities to sample Antarctic biodiversity at wider spatiotemporal scales. Data integration frameworks, such as point process and hierarchical models, can mitigate weaknesses in individual data sets, improving confidence in their predictions. Increasing process knowledge in models is imperative to achieving improved forecasts of Antarctic biodiversity, which can be attained for data-limited species using hybrid modelling frameworks. Leveraging these state-of-the-art tools will help to overcome many of the data scarcity challenges presented by the remoteness of Antarctica, enabling more robust forecasts both near- and long-term.

Threat management priorities for conserving Antarctic biodiversity

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity faces multiple threats, from invasive species to climate change. Yet no large-scale assessments of threat management strategies exist. Applying a structured participatory approach, we demonstrate that existing conservation efforts are insufficient in a changing world, estimating that 65% (at best 37%, at worst 97%) of native terrestrial taxa and land-associated seabirds are likely to decline by 2100 under current trajectories. Emperor penguins are identified as the most vulnerable taxon, followed by other seabirds and dry soil nematodes. We find that implementing 10 key threat management strategies in parallel, at an estimated present-day equivalent annual cost of US$23 million, could benefit up to 84% of Antarctic taxa. Climate change is identified as the most pervasive threat to Antarctic biodiversity and influencing global policy to effectively limit climate change is the most beneficial conservation strategy. However, minimising impacts of human activities and improved planning and management of new infrastructure projects are cost-effective and will help to minimise regional threats. Simultaneous global and regional efforts are critical to secure Antarctic biodiversity for future generations.

Analysis of the contribution of locally derived wastewater to the occurrence of Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care Products in Antarctic coastal waters

Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care Products (PPCPs) are emerging pollutants detected in many locations of the world including Antarctica. The main objective of this review is to discuss the influence of the human population on the concentration, distribution and biological effects of PPCPs across the Antarctic coastal marine ecosystem. We carried out a review of the scientific articles published for PPCPs in Antarctic, supported by the information of the Antarctic stations reported by Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs (CONMAP), Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty (ATS). In addition, spatial data regarding the Antarctic continent was obtained from Quantarctica. Antarctic concentrations of PPCPs were more reflective of the treatment system used by research stations as opposed to the infrastructure built or the annual occupancy by station. The main problem is that most of the research stations lack tertiary treatment, resulting in elevated concentrations of PPCPs in effluents. Furthermore, the geographic distribution of Antarctic field stations in coastal areas allows for the release of PPCPs, directly into the sea, a practice that remains in compliance with the current Protocol. After their release, PPCPs can become incorporated into sea ice, which can then act as a chemical reservoir. In addition, there is no clarity on the effects on the local biota. Finally, we recommend regulating the entry and use of PPCPs in Antarctica given the difficulties of operating, and in some cases the complete absence of appropriate treatment systems. Further studies are needed on the fate, transport and biological effects of PPCPs on the Antarctic biota. It is recommended that research efforts be carried out in areas inhabited by humans to generate mitigation measures relative to potential adverse impacts. Tourism should be also considered in further studies due the temporal release of PPCPs.

Islands in the ice: Potential impacts of habitat transformation on Antarctic biodiversity

Antarctic biodiversity faces an unknown future with a changing climate. Most terrestrial biota is restricted to limited patches of ice-free land in a sea of ice, where they are adapted to the continent's extreme cold and wind and exploit microhabitats of suitable conditions. As temperatures rise, ice-free areas are predicted to expand, more rapidly in some areas than others. There is high uncertainty as to how species' distributions, physiology, abundance, and survivorship will be affected as their habitats transform. Here we use current knowledge to propose hypotheses that ice-free area expansion (i) will increase habitat availability, though the quality of habitat will vary; (ii) will increase structural connectivity, although not necessarily increase opportunities for species establishment; (iii) combined with milder climates will increase likelihood of non-native species establishment, but may also lengthen activity windows for all species; and (iv) will benefit some species and not others, possibly resulting in increased homogeneity of biodiversity. We anticipate considerable spatial, temporal, and taxonomic variation in species responses, and a heightened need for interdisciplinary research to understand the factors associated with ecosystem resilience under future scenarios. Such research will help identify at-risk species or vulnerable localities and is crucial for informing environmental management and policymaking into the future.

The rising threat of climate change for arthropods from Earth's cold regions: Taxonomic rather than native status drives species sensitivity

Polar and alpine regions are changing rapidly with global climate change. Yet, the impacts on biodiversity, especially on the invertebrate ectotherms which are dominant in these areas, remain poorly understood. Short-term extreme temperature events, which are growing in frequency, are expected to have profound impacts on high-latitude ectotherms, with native species being less resilient than their alien counterparts. Here, we examined in the laboratory the effects of short periodic exposures to thermal extremes on survival responses of seven native and two non-native invertebrates from the sub-Antarctic Islands. We found that survival of dipterans was significantly reduced under warming exposures, on average having median lethal times (LT₅₀ ) of about 30 days in control conditions, which declined to about 20 days when exposed to daily short-term maxima of 24°C. Conversely, coleopterans were either not, or were less, affected by the climatic scenarios applied, with predicted LT₅₀ as high as 65 days under the warmest condition (daily exposures at 28°C for 2 h). The native spider Myro kerguelensis was characterized by an intermediate sensitivity when subjected to short-term daily heat maxima. Our results unexpectedly revealed a taxonomic influence, with physiological sensitivity to heat differing between higher level taxa, but not between native and non-native species representing the same higher taxon. The survival of a non-native carabid beetle under the experimentally imposed conditions was very high, but similar to that of native beetles, while native and non-native flies also exhibited very similar sensitivity to warming. As dipterans are a major element of diversity of sub-Antarctic, Arctic and other cold ecosystems, such observations suggest that the increased occurrence of extreme, short-term, thermal events could lead to large-scale restructuring of key terrestrial ecosystem components both in ecosystems protected from and those exposed to the additional impacts of biological invasions.

The Resilience of Polar Collembola (Springtails) in a Changing Climate

Assessing the resilience of polar biota to climate change is essential for predicting the effects of changing environmental conditions for ecosystems. Collembola are abundant in terrestrial polar ecosystems and are integral to food-webs and soil nutrient cycling. Using available literature, we consider resistance (genetic diversity; behavioural avoidance and physiological tolerances; biotic interactions) and recovery potential for polar Collembola. Polar Collembola have high levels of genetic diversity, considerable capacity for behavioural avoidance, wide thermal tolerance ranges, physiological plasticity, generalist-opportunistic feeding habits and broad ecological niches. The biggest threats to the ongoing resistance of polar Collembola are increasing levels of dispersal (gene flow), increased mean and extreme temperatures, drought, changing biotic interactions, and the arrival and spread of invasive species. If resistance capacities are insufficient, numerous studies have highlighted that while some species can recover from disturbances quickly, complete community-level recovery is exceedingly slow. Species dwelling deeper in the soil profile may be less able to resist climate change and may not recover in ecologically realistic timescales given the current rate of climate change. Ultimately, diverse communities are more likely to have species or populations that are able to resist or recover from disturbances. While much of the Arctic has comparatively high levels of diversity and phenotypic plasticity; areas of Antarctica have extremely low levels of diversity and are potentially much more vulnerable to climate change.

Ego network analysis of the trophic structure of an island land bird through 300 years of climate change and invaders

Ego net analysis is a well‐known practice in social sciences, where an ego net (EN) consists of a focal node, the ego, and its links to other nodes, called alters, and alter–alter links may also be included. An EN describes how a focal node is embedded in its interaction context. Here, I introduce EN analysis to ecology in a study of the trophic network of a sub‐Antarctic land bird, Lesser Sheathbill (Chionis minor). Data originate from the sheathbill population on Marion Island in the Southern Ocean. The bird is ego and its enemies and food are alters. The EN is organized along three dimensions: habitat, interaction type, and time (from before human arrival in 1803 and until a future year 2100). Ten EN descriptors are defined, estimated, and used to track the 300 years of change in sheathbill EN structure. Since 1803, the EN has passed two major, but reversible shifts—seal exploitation in the 19th century and presence of cats from 1949 to 1991. These shifts can be read as structural changes in the sheathbill EN. In the future, a third, perhaps irreversible change is predicted, driven by climate change and a surprising, recent shift to seabird predation by House Mouse, the most detrimental of all extant invaders on Marion. In a warmer and drier future, the mouse will proliferate, and if this forces seabirds to abandon the island, their accumulation of detritus runs dry, starving a rich invertebrate detritivore fauna, which also is a key food source to sheathbills. These detritivores together with plants have also constituted the main food sources of mice. The EN descriptors quantify that story. In the future, these events may lead to a collapse of the island ecosystem, including extinction of the sheathbill—unless plans for mouse eradication are implemented.

Evolutionary constraints on physiology confound range shift predictions of two nacellid limpets

Physiological comparisons are fundamental to quantitative assessments of the capacity of species to persist within their current distribution and to predict their rates of redistribution in response to climate change. Yet, the degree to which physiological traits are conserved through evolutionary history may fundamentally constrain the capacity for species to adapt and shift their geographic range. Taxa that straddle major climate transitions provide the opportunity to test the mechanisms underlying evolutionary constraints and how such constraints may influence range shift predictions. Here we focus on two abundant and shallow water nacellid limpets which have representative species on either side of the Polar front. We test the thermal thresholds of the Southern Patagonian limpet, Nacella deaurata and show that its optimal temperatures for growth (4 °C), activity (-1.2 to -0.2 °C) and survival (1 to 8 °C) are mismatched to its currently experienced annual sea surface temperature range (5.9 to 10 °C). Comparisons with the congeneric Antarctic limpet, N. concinna, reveal an evolutionary constraint on N. deaurata physiology, with overlapping thermal capacities, suggesting that a cold climate legacy has been maintained through the evolution of these species. These physiological assessments predict that the South American range of N. deaurata will likely decline with continued warming. It is, however, one of the first species with demonstrated physiological capacity to successfully colonize the cold Southern Ocean. With the expected increase in opportunities for transport within high southern latitudes, N. deaurata has the potential to establish and drive ecological change within the shallow Southern Ocean.

Do Invasive Mammal Eradications from Islands Support Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation?

Climate change represents a planetary emergency that is exacerbating the loss of native biodiversity. In response, efforts promoting climate change adaptation strategies that improve ecosystem resilience and/or mitigate climate impacts are paramount. Invasive Alien Species are a key threat to islands globally, where strategies such as preventing establishment (biosecurity), and eradication, especially invasive mammals, have proven effective for reducing native biodiversity loss and can also advance ecosystem resilience and create refugia for native species at risk from climate change. Furthermore, there is growing evidence that successful eradications may also contribute to mitigating climate change. Given the cross-sector potential for eradications to reduce climate impacts alongside native biodiversity conservation, we sought to understand when conservation managers and funders explicitly sought to use or fund the eradication of invasive mammals from islands to achieve positive climate outcomes. To provide context, we first summarized available literature of the synergistic relationship between invasive species and climate change, including case studies where invasive mammal eradications served to meet climate adaptation or mitigation solutions. Second, we conducted a systematic review of the literature and eradication-related conference proceedings to identify when these synergistic effects of climate and invasive species were explicitly addressed through eradication practices. Third, we reviewed projects from four large funding entities known to support climate change solutions and/or native biodiversity conservation efforts and identified when eradications were funded in a climate change context. The combined results of our case study summary paired with systematic reviews found that, although eradicating invasive mammals from islands is an effective climate adaptation strategy, island eradications are poorly represented within the climate change adaptation and mitigation funding framework. We believe this is a lost opportunity and encourage eradication practitioners and funders of climate change adaptation to leverage this extremely effective nature-based tool into positive conservation and climate resilience solutions.

Warming impacts potential germination of non-native plants on the Antarctic Peninsula

The Antarctic Peninsula is under pressure from non-native plants and this risk is expected to increase under climate warming. Establishment and subsequent range expansion of non-native plants depend in part on germination ability under Antarctic conditions, but quantifying these processes has yet to receive detailed study. Viability testing and plant growth responses under simulated Antarctic soil surface conditions over an annual cycle show that 16 non-native species, including grasses, herbs, rushes and a succulent, germinated and continued development under a warming scenario. Thermal germination requirement (degree day sum) was calculated for each species and field soil-temperature recordings indicate that this is satisfied as far south as 72° S. Here, we show that the establishment potential of non-native species, in number and geographical range, is considerably greater than currently suggested by species distribution modelling approaches, with important implications for risk assessments of non-native species along the Antarctic Peninsula.

Ocean currents as a potential dispersal pathway for Antarctica’s most persistent non-native terrestrial insect

The non-native midge Eretmoptera murphyi is Antarctica’s most persistent non-native insect and is known to impact the terrestrial ecosystems. It inhabits by considerably increasing litter turnover and availability of soil nutrients. The midge was introduced to Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, from its native South Georgia, and routes of dispersal to date have been aided by human activities, with little known about non-human-assisted methods of dispersal. This study is the first to determine the potential for dispersal of a terrestrial invertebrate species in Antarctica by combining physiological sea water tolerance data with quantitative assessments of ocean current journey times. Fourth instar larvae tolerated sea water submergence for up to 21 days, but submerged egg sacs had significantly reduced hatching success. Using near-surface drifter data, we conclude that ocean current dispersal from Signy Island would not present a risk of species transfer beyond the South Orkney Islands on the tested timescales. However, if E. murphyi were to be introduced to the South Shetlands Islands or Adelaide Island, which are located offshore of the Antarctic Peninsula, there would be a risk of successful oceanic dispersal to neighbouring islands and the Antarctic Peninsula mainland. This study emphasises the need for effective biosecurity measures and demonstrates the role that currently undocumented pathways may have in dispersing non-native species.

Antarctic ecosystems in transition - life between stresses and opportunities

Important findings from the second decade of the 21st century on the impact of environmental change on biological processes in the Antarctic were synthesised by 26 international experts. Ten key messages emerged that have stakeholder-relevance and/or a high impact for the scientific community. They address (i) altered biogeochemical cycles, (ii) ocean acidification, (iii) climate change hotspots, (iv) unexpected dynamism in seabed-dwelling populations, (v) spatial range shifts, (vi) adaptation and thermal resilience, (vii) sea ice related biological fluctuations, (viii) pollution, (ix) endangered terrestrial endemism and (x) the discovery of unknown habitats. Most Antarctic biotas are exposed to multiple stresses and considered vulnerable to environmental change due to narrow tolerance ranges, rapid change, projected circumpolar impacts, low potential for timely genetic adaptation, and migration barriers. Important ecosystem functions, such as primary production and energy transfer between trophic levels, have already changed, and biodiversity patterns have shifted. A confidence assessment of the degree of 'scientific understanding' revealed an intermediate level for most of the more detailed sub-messages, indicating that process-oriented research has been successful in the past decade. Additional efforts are necessary, however, to achieve the level of robustness in scientific knowledge that is required to inform protection measures of the unique Antarctic terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and their contributions to global biodiversity and ecosystem services.

What and where? Predicting invasion hotspots in the Arctic marine realm

The risk of aquatic invasions in the Arctic is expected to increase with climate warming, greater shipping activity and resource exploitation in the region. Planktonic and benthic marine aquatic invasive species (AIS) with the greatest potential for invasion and impact in the Canadian Arctic were identified and the 23 riskiest species were modelled to predict their potential spatial distributions at pan-Arctic and global scales. Modelling was conducted under present environmental conditions and two intermediate future (2050 and 2100) global warming scenarios. Invasion hotspots-regions of the Arctic where habitat is predicted to be suitable for a high number of potential AIS-were located in Hudson Bay, Northern Grand Banks/Labrador, Chukchi/Eastern Bering seas and Barents/White seas, suggesting that these regions could be more vulnerable to invasions. Globally, both benthic and planktonic organisms showed a future poleward shift in suitable habitat. At a pan-Arctic scale, all organisms showed suitable habitat gains under future conditions. However, at the global scale, habitat loss was predicted in more tropical regions for some taxa, particularly most planktonic species. Results from the present study can help prioritize management efforts in the face of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Moreover, this particular approach provides information to identify present and future high-risk areas for AIS in response to global warming.

Fungal Community in Antarctic Soil Along the Retreating Collins Glacier (Fildes Peninsula, King George Island)

Glacial retreat is one of the most conspicuous signs of warming in Antarctic regions. Glacier soils harbor an active microbial community of decomposers, and under the continuous retraction of glaciers, the soil starts to present a gradient of physical, chemical, and biological factors reflecting regional changes over time. Little is known about the biological nature of fungi in Antarctic glacier soils. In this sense, this work aimed at studying the behavior of fungal community structure from samples of glacier soil collected after glacial retreat (Collins Glacier). A total of 309 fungi distributed in 19 genera were obtained from eleven soil samples. Representatives of the genera Pseudogymnoascus (Ascomycota) and Mortierella (Mortierellomycota) were the most abundant isolates in all samples. The data revealed the presence of filamentous fungi belonging to the phylum Basidiomycota, rarely found in Antarctica. Analysis of the generalized linear models revealed that the distance from the glacier as well as phosphorus and clay were able to modify the distribution of fungal species. Environmental variations proved to have influenced the genera Pseudogymnoascus and Pseudeutorium.

Scientists' warning on invasive alien species

Biological invasions are a global consequence of an increasingly connected world and the rise in human population size. The numbers of invasive alien species – the subset of alien species that spread widely in areas where they are not native, affecting the environment or human livelihoods – are increasing. Synergies with other global changes are exacerbating current invasions and facilitating new ones, thereby escalating the extent and impacts of invaders. Invasions have complex and often immense long‐term direct and indirect impacts. In many cases, such impacts become apparent or problematic only when invaders are well established and have large ranges. Invasive alien species break down biogeographic realms, affect native species richness and abundance, increase the risk of native species extinction, affect the genetic composition of native populations, change native animal behaviour, alter phylogenetic diversity across communities, and modify trophic networks. Many invasive alien species also change ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services by altering nutrient and contaminant cycling, hydrology, habitat structure, and disturbance regimes. These biodiversity and ecosystem impacts are accelerating and will increase further in the future. Scientific evidence has identified policy strategies to reduce future invasions, but these strategies are often insufficiently implemented. For some nations, notably Australia and New Zealand, biosecurity has become a national priority. There have been long‐term successes, such as eradication of rats and cats on increasingly large islands and biological control of weeds across continental areas. However, in many countries, invasions receive little attention. Improved international cooperation is crucial to reduce the impacts of invasive alien species on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human livelihoods. Countries can strengthen their biosecurity regulations to implement and enforce more effective management strategies that should also address other global changes that interact with invasions.

Assessing distribution shifts and ecophysiological characteristics of the only Antarctic winged midge under climate change scenarios

Parts of Antarctica were amongst the most rapidly changing regions of the planet during the second half of the Twentieth Century. Even so, today, most of Antarctica remains in the grip of continental ice sheets, with only about 0.2% of its overall area being ice-free. The continent's terrestrial fauna consists only of invertebrates, with just two native species of insects, the chironomid midges Parochlus steinenii and Belgica antarctica. We integrate ecophysiological information with the development of new high-resolution climatic layers for Antarctica, to better understand how the distribution of P. steinenii may respond to change over the next century under different IPCC climate change scenarios. We conclude that the species has the potential to expand its distribution to include parts of the west and east coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula and even coastal ice-free areas in parts of continental Antarctica. We propose P. steinenii as an effective native sentinel and indicator species of climate change in the Antarctic.

Invasive non-native species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Antarctic Peninsula region

The Antarctic is considered to be a pristine environment relative to other regions of the Earth, but it is increasingly vulnerable to invasions by marine, freshwater and terrestrial non-native species. The Antarctic Peninsula region (APR), which encompasses the Antarctic Peninsula, South Shetland Islands and South Orkney Islands, is by far the most invaded part of the Antarctica continent. The risk of introduction of invasive non-native species to the APR is likely to increase with predicted increases in the intensity, diversity and distribution of human activities. Parties that are signatories to the Antarctic Treaty have called for regional assessments of non-native species risk. In response, taxonomic and Antarctic experts undertook a horizon scanning exercise using expert opinion and consensus approaches to identify the species that are likely to present the highest risk to biodiversity and ecosystems within the APR over the next 10 years. One hundred and three species, currently absent in the APR, were identified as relevant for review, with 13 species identified as presenting a high risk of invading the APR. Marine invertebrates dominated the list of highest risk species, with flowering plants and terrestrial invertebrates also represented; however, vertebrate species were thought unlikely to establish in the APR within the 10 year timeframe. We recommend (a) the further development and application of biosecurity measures by all stakeholders active in the APR, including surveillance for species such as those identified during this horizon scanning exercise, and (b) use of this methodology across the other regions of Antarctica. Without the application of appropriate biosecurity measures, rates of introductions and invasions within the APR are likely to increase, resulting in negative consequences for the biodiversity of the whole continent, as introduced species establish and spread further due to climate change and increasing human activity.

The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world

Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes.

Antarctica: The final frontier for marine biological invasions

Antarctica is experiencing significant ecological and environmental change, which may facilitate the establishment of non-native marine species. Non-native marine species will interact with other anthropogenic stressors affecting Antarctic ecosystems, such as climate change (warming, ocean acidification) and pollution, with irreversible ramifications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We review current knowledge of non-native marine species in the Antarctic region, the physical and physiological factors that resist establishment of non-native marine species, changes to resistance under climate change, the role of legislation in limiting marine introductions, and the effect of increasing human activity on vectors and pathways of introduction. Evidence of non-native marine species is limited: just four marine non-native and one cryptogenic species that were likely introduced anthropogenically have been reported freely living in Antarctic or sub-Antarctic waters, but no established populations have been reported; an additional six species have been observed in pathways to Antarctica that are potentially at risk of becoming invasive. We present estimates of the intensity of ship activity across fishing, tourism and research sectors: there may be approximately 180 vessels and 500+ voyages in Antarctic waters annually. However, these estimates are necessarily speculative because relevant data are scarce. To facilitate well-informed policy and management, we make recommendations for future research into the likelihood of marine biological invasions in the Antarctic region.

Vagrant birds as a dispersal vector in transoceanic range expansion of vascular plants

Birds are thought to be important vectors underlying the disjunct distribution patterns of some terrestrial biota. Here, we investigate the role of birds in the colonisation by Ochetophila trinervis (Rhamnaceae), a vascular plant from the southern Andes, of sub-Antarctic Marion Island. The location of O. trinervis on the island far from human activities, in combination with a reconstruction of island visitors' travel history, precludes an anthropogenic introduction. Notably, three bird species occurring in the southern Andes inland have been observed as vagrants on Marion Island, with the barn swallow Hirundo rustica as the most common one. This vagrant displays long-distance migratory behaviour, eats seeds when insects are in short supply, and has started breeding in South America since the 1980s. Since naturalised O. trinervis has never been found outside the southern Andes and its diaspores are incapable of surviving in seawater or dispersing by wind, a natural avian dispersal event from the Andes to Marion Island, a distance of >7500 km, remains the only probable explanation. Although one self-incompatible shrub seems doomed to remain solitary, its mere establishment on a Southern Ocean island demonstrates the potential of vagrancy as a driver of extreme long-distance dispersal of terrestrial biota.

Human-mediated dispersal of terrestrial species between Antarctic biogeographic regions: A preliminary risk assessment

The distribution of terrestrial biodiversity within Antarctica is complex, with 16 distinct biogeographic regions (Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions) currently recognised within the Antarctic continent, Peninsula and Scotia Arc archipelagos of the Antarctic Treaty area. Much of this diversity is endemic not only to Antarctica as a whole, but to specific regions within it. Further complexity is added by inclusion of the biodiversity found on the islands located in the Southern Ocean north of the Treaty area. Within Antarctica, scientific, logistic and tourism activities may inadvertently move organisms over potentially long distances, far beyond natural dispersal ranges. Such translocation can disrupt natural species distribution patterns and biogeography through: (1) movement of spatially restricted indigenous species to other areas of Antarctica; (2) movement of distinct populations of more generally distributed species from one area of Antarctica to another, leading to genetic homogenisation and loss of assumed local patterns of adaptation; and (3) further dispersal of introduced non-native species from one area of Antarctica to another. Species can be moved between regions in association with people and cargo, by ship, aircraft and overland travel. Movement of cargo and personnel by ship between stations located in different biogeographic regions is likely to present one of the greatest risks, particularly as coastal stations may experience similar climatic conditions, making establishment more likely. Recognising that reducing the risk of inter-regional transfer of species is a priority issue for the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting, we make practical recommendations aimed at reducing this risk, including the implementation of appropriate biosecurity procedures.

High resolution temperature data for ecological research and management on the Southern Ocean Islands

Southern Ocean Islands are globally significant conservation areas. Predicting how their terrestrial ecosystems will respond to current and forecast climate change is essential for their management and requires high-quality temperature data at fine spatial resolutions. Existing datasets are inadequate for this purpose. Remote-sensed land surface temperature (LST) observations, such as those collected by satellite-mounted spectroradiometers, can provide high-resolution, spatially-continuous data for isolated locations. These methods require a clear sightline to measure surface conditions, however, which can leave large data-gaps in temperature time series. Using a spatio-temporal gap-filling method applied to high-resolution (~1 km) LST observations for 20 Southern Ocean Islands, we compiled a complete monthly temperature dataset for a 15-year period (2001-2015). We validated results using in situ measurements of microclimate temperature. Gap-filled temperature observations described the thermal heterogeneity of the region better than existing climatology datasets, particularly for islands with steep elevational gradients and strong prevailing winds. This dataset will be especially useful for terrestrial ecologists, conservation biologists, and for developing island-specific management and mitigation strategies for environmental change.

Choosing the future of Antarctica

We present two narratives on the future of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, from the perspective of an observer looking back from 2070. In the first scenario, greenhouse gas emissions remained unchecked, the climate continued to warm, and the policy response was ineffective; this had large ramifications in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, with worldwide impacts. In the second scenario, ambitious action was taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to establish policies that reduced anthropogenic pressure on the environment, slowing the rate of change in Antarctica. Choices made in the next decade will determine what trajectory is realized.