Biodiversity ensures plant-pollinator phenological synchrony against climate change

Unraveling the drivers and impacts of leaf phenological diversity in a subtropical forest: A fine-scale analysis using PlanetScope CubeSats

Leaf phenology variations within plant communities shape community assemblages and influence ecosystem properties and services. However, questions remain regarding quantification, drivers, and productivity impacts of intra-site leaf phenological diversity. With a 50-ha subtropical forest plot in China's Heishiding Provincial Nature Reserve (part of the global ForestGEO network) as a testbed, we gathered a unique dataset combining ground-derived abiotic (topography, soil) and biotic (taxonomic diversity, functional diversity, functional traits) factors. We investigated drivers underlying leaf phenological diversity extracted from high-resolution PlanetScope data, and its influence on aboveground biomass (AGB) using structural equation modeling (SEM). Our results reveal considerable fine-scale leaf phenological diversity across the subtropical forest landscape. This diversity is directly and indirectly influenced by abiotic and biotic factors (e.g. slope, soil, traits, taxonomic diversity; r2 = 0.43). While a notable bivariate relationship between AGB and leaf phenological diversity was identified (r = -0.24, P < 0.05), this relationship did not hold in SEM analysis after considering interactions with other biotic and abiotic factors (P > 0.05). These findings unveil the underlying mechanism regulating intra-site leaf phenological diversity. While leaf phenology is known to be associated with ecosystem properties, our findings confirm that AGB is primarily influenced by functional trait composition and taxonomic diversity rather than leaf phenological diversity.

Buffering and phenological mismatch: A change of perspective

The potential for climate change to disrupt phenology-mediated interactions in interaction networks has attracted considerable attention in recent decades. Frequently, studies emphasize the fragility of ephemeral seasonal interactions, and the risks posed by phenological asynchrony. Here, we argue that the fitness consequences of asynchrony in phenological interactions may often be more buffered than is typically acknowledged. We identify three main forms that buffering may take: (i) mechanisms that reduce asynchrony between consumer and resource; (ii) mechanisms that reduce the costs of being asynchronous; and (iii) mechanisms that dampen interannual variance in performance across higher organizational units. Using synchrony between the hatching of winter moth caterpillars and the leafing of their host-plants as a case study, we identify a wide variety of buffers that reduce the detrimental consequences of phenological asynchrony on caterpillar individuals, populations, and meta-populations. We follow this by drawing on examples across a breadth of taxa, and demonstrate that these buffering mechanisms may be quite general. We conclude by identifying key gaps in our knowledge of the fitness and demographic consequences of buffering, in the context of phenological mismatch. Buffering has the potential to substantially alter our understanding of the biotic impacts of future climate change-a greater recognition of the contribution of these mechanisms may reveal that many trophic interactions are surprisingly resilient, and also serve to shift research emphasis to those systems with fewer buffers and towards identifying the limits of those buffers.

Climate change is poised to alter mountain stream ecosystem processes via organismal phenological shifts

Climate change is affecting the phenology of organisms and ecosystem processes across a wide range of environments. However, the links between organismal and ecosystem process change in complex communities remain uncertain. In snow-dominated watersheds, snowmelt in the spring and early summer, followed by a long low-flow period, characterizes the natural flow regime of streams and rivers. Here, we examined how earlier snowmelt will alter the phenology of mountain stream organisms and ecosystem processes via an outdoor mesocosm experiment in stream channels in the Eastern Sierra Nevada, California. The low-flow treatment, simulating a 3- to 6-wk earlier return to summer baseflow conditions projected under climate change scenarios in the region, increased water temperature and reduced biofilm production to respiration ratios by 32%. Additionally, most of the invertebrate species explaining community change (56% and 67% of the benthic and emergent taxa, respectively), changed in phenology as a consequence of the low-flow treatment. Further, emergent flux pulses of the dominant insect group (Chironomidae) almost doubled in magnitude, benefitting a generalist riparian predator. Changes in both invertebrate community structure (composition) and functioning (production) were mostly fine-scale, and response diversity at the community level stabilized seasonally aggregated responses. Our study illustrates how climate change in vulnerable mountain streams at the rain-to-snow transition is poised to alter the dynamics of stream food webs via fine-scale changes in phenology-leading to novel predator-prey "matches" or "mismatches" even when community structure and ecosystem processes appear stable at the annual scale.

Evolutionary plant-pollinator responses to anthropogenic land-use change: impacts on ecosystem services

Agricultural intensification at field and landscape scales, including increased use of agrochemicals and loss of semi-natural habitats, is a major driver of insect declines and other community changes. Efforts to understand and mitigate these effects have traditionally focused on ecological responses. At the same time, adaptations to pesticide use and habitat fragmentation in both insects and flowering plants show the potential for rapid evolution. Yet we lack an understanding of how such evolutionary responses may propagate within and between trophic levels with ensuing consequences for conservation of species and ecological functions in agroecosystems. Here, we review the literature on the consequences of agricultural intensification on plant and animal evolutionary responses and interactions. We present a novel conceptualization of evolutionary change induced by agricultural intensification at field and landscape scales and emphasize direct and indirect effects of rapid evolution on ecosystem services. We exemplify by focusing on economically and ecologically important interactions between plants and pollinators. We showcase available eco-evolutionary theory and plant-pollinator modelling that can improve predictions of how agricultural intensification affects interaction networks, and highlight available genetic and trait-focused methodological approaches. Specifically, we focus on how spatial genetic structure affects the probability of propagated responses, and how the structure of interaction networks modulates effects of evolutionary change in individual species. Thereby, we highlight how combined trait-based eco-evolutionary modelling, functionally explicit quantitative genetics, and genomic analyses may shed light on conditions where evolutionary responses impact important ecosystem services.

Effect of shade on biodiversity within coffee farms: A meta-analysis

Aligning crop production with conservation initiatives has long been a topic of debate, with agricultural intensification threatening biodiversity across the globe. Shade-grown coffee allows farmers to preserve biodiversity by providing viable habitat, but its conservation value remains unclear. In this meta-analysis, we screened existing literature using the PRISMA protocol to compare the effect of three shade intensities on species diversity and individual abundance: sun, low shade (LS) and high shade (HS). Furthermore, we examine differences between taxa, within taxa and between regions to establish which species benefit most from shade and whether these benefits vary dependent on geographical location. Out of 1889 studies, we included 69 studies in the analysis, and performed random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions. Overall, we found that species diversity was significantly higher in HS when compared to sun and LS, and species diversity in LS tended to be higher than in sun. In each treatment, the species diversity of birds was higher in the higher shade treatment, i.e., HS and LS. In addition, mammal and epiphyte species diversity was higher in HS when compared to LS. Similarly, studies from Latin America showed significantly higher species diversity and abundance in shaded farms when compared to sun farms. Studies conducted in Africa detailed the opposite relationship, with abundance being significantly higher in less shaded systems, highlighting that land-use strategies must be region-specific. Moving forward, strategies to conserve biodiversity within coffee farms should: 1) account for region-specific variables; 2) end further encroachment; 3) maintain connectivity; and 4) optimise yield through prioritising faunal and floral diversity.

Bee species richness through time in an urbanizing landscape of the southeastern United States

Compared to non-urban environments, cities host ecological communities with altered taxonomic diversity and functional trait composition. However, we know little about how these urban changes take shape over time. Using historical bee (Apoidea: Anthophila) museum specimens supplemented with online repositories and researcher collections, we investigated whether bee species richness tracked urban and human population growth over the past 118 years. We also determined which species were no longer collected, whether those species shared certain traits, and if collector behavior changed over time. We focused on Wake County, North Carolina, United States where human population size has increased over 16 times over the last century along with the urban area within its largest city, Raleigh, which has increased over four times. We estimated bee species richness with occupancy models, and rarefaction and extrapolation curves to account for imperfect detection and sample coverage. To determine if bee traits correlated with when species were collected, we compiled information on native status, nesting habits, diet breadth, and sociality. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling to determine if individual collectors contributed different bee assemblages over time. In total, there were 328 species collected in Wake County. We found that although bee species richness varied, there was no clear trend in bee species richness over time. However, recent collections (since 2003) were missing 195 species, and there was a shift in trait composition, particularly lost species were below-ground nesters. The top collectors in the dataset differed in how often they collected bee species, but this was not consistent between historic and contemporary time periods; some contemporary collectors grouped closer together than others, potentially due to focusing on urban habitats. Use of historical collections and complimentary analyses can fill knowledge gaps to help understand temporal patterns of species richness in taxonomic groups that may not have planned long-term data.

Oligosaccharide production and signaling correlate with delayed flowering in an Arabidopsis genotype grown and selected in high [CO2]

Since industrialization began, atmospheric CO2 ([CO2]) has increased from 270 to 415 ppm and is projected to reach 800-1000 ppm this century. Some Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis) genotypes delayed flowering in elevated [CO2] relative to current [CO2], while others showed no change or accelerations. To predict genotype-specific flowering behaviors, we must understand the mechanisms driving flowering response to rising [CO2]. [CO2] changes alter photosynthesis and carbohydrates in plants. Plants sense carbohydrate levels, and exogenous carbohydrate application influences flowering time and flowering transcript levels. We asked how organismal changes in carbohydrates and transcription correlate with changes in flowering time under elevated [CO2]. We used a genotype (SG) of Arabidopsis that was selected for high fitness at elevated [CO2] (700 ppm). SG delays flowering under elevated [CO2] (700 ppm) relative to current [CO2] (400 ppm). We compared SG to a closely related control genotype (CG) that shows no [CO2]-induced flowering change. We compared metabolomic and transcriptomic profiles in these genotypes at current and elevated [CO2] to assess correlations with flowering in these conditions. While both genotypes altered carbohydrates in response to elevated [CO2], SG had higher levels of sucrose than CG and showed a stronger increase in glucose and fructose in elevated [CO2]. Both genotypes demonstrated transcriptional changes, with CG increasing genes related to fructose 1,6-bisphosphate breakdown, amino acid synthesis, and secondary metabolites; and SG decreasing genes related to starch and sugar metabolism, but increasing genes involved in oligosaccharide production and sugar modifications. Genes associated with flowering regulation within the photoperiod, vernalization, and meristem identity pathways were altered in these genotypes. Elevated [CO2] may alter carbohydrates to influence transcription in both genotypes and delayed flowering in SG. Changes in the oligosaccharide pool may contribute to delayed flowering in SG. This work extends the literature exploring genotypic-specific flowering responses to elevated [CO2].

Forest habitats and plant communities strongly predicts Megachilidae bee biodiversity

Megachilidae is one of the United States' most diverse bee families, with 667 described species in 19 genera. Unlike other bee families, which are primarily ground nesters, most megachilid bees require biotic cavities for nesting (i.e., wood, pithy stems, etc.). For this group, the availability of woody-plant species may be as important as nectar/pollen resources in maintaining populations. We studied Megachilidae biodiversity in the continental United States. We confirmed that the highest species richness of Megachilidae was in the southwestern United States. We examined the relationship between species richness and climate, land cover, tree species richness, and flowering plant diversity. When examining environmental predictors across the conterminous United States, we found that forested habitats, but not tree diversity, strongly predicted Megachilidae richness. Additionally, Megachilidae richness was highest in areas with high temperature and low precipitation, however this was not linearly correlated and strongly positively correlated with flowering plant diversity. Our research suggests that the availability of nesting substrate (forested habitats), and not only flowering plants, is particularly important for these cavity-nesting species. Since trees and forested areas are particularly susceptible to climate change, including effects of drought, fire, and infestations, nesting substrates could become a potential limiting resource for Megachilidae populations.

Structural asymmetry in biotic interactions as a tool to understand and predict ecological persistence

A universal feature of ecological systems is that species do not interact with others with the same sign and strength. Yet, the consequences of this asymmetry in biotic interactions for the short- and long-term persistence of individual species and entire communities remains unclear. Here, we develop a set of metrics to evaluate how asymmetric interactions among species translate to asymmetries in their individual vulnerability to extinction under changing environmental conditions. These metrics, which solve previous limitations of how to independently quantify the size from the shape of the so-called feasibility domain, provide rigorous advances to understand simultaneously why some species and communities present more opportunities to persist than others. We further demonstrate that our shape-related metrics are useful to predict short-term changes in species' relative abundances during 7 years in a Mediterranean grassland. Our approach is designed to be applied to any ecological system regardless of the number of species and type of interactions. With it, we show that is possible to obtain both mechanistic and predictive information on ecological persistence for individual species and entire communities, paving the way for a stronger integration of theoretical and empirical research.

Century-long butterfly range expansions in northern Europe depend on climate, land use and species traits

Climate change is an important driver of range shifts and community composition changes. Still, little is known about how the responses are influenced by the combination of land use, species interactions and species traits. We integrate climate and distributional data for 131 butterfly species in Sweden and Finland and show that cumulative species richness has increased with increasing temperature over the past 120 years. Average provincial species richness increased by 64% (range 15-229%), from 46 to 70. The rate and direction of range expansions have not matched the temperature changes, in part because colonisations have been modified by other climatic variables, land use and vary according to species characteristics representing ecological generalisation and species interactions. Results emphasise the role of a broad ecological filtering, whereby a mismatch between environmental conditions and species preferences limit the ability to disperse and establish populations in emerging climates and novel areas, with potentially widespread implications for ecosystem functioning.

Assessing temperature-based adaptation limits to climate change of temperate perennial fruit crops

Temperate perennial fruit and nut trees play varying roles in world food diversity-providing edible oils and micronutrient, energy, and protein dense foods. In addition, perennials reuse significant amounts of biomass each year providing a unique resilience. But they also have a unique sensitivity to seasonal temperatures, requiring a period of dormancy for successful growing season production. This paper takes a global view of five temperate tree fruit crops-apples, cherries, almonds, olives, and grapes-and assesses the effects of future temperature changes on thermal suitability. It uses climate data from five earth system models for two CMIP6 climate scenarios and temperature-related indices of stress to indicate potential future areas where crops cannot be grown and highlight potential new suitable regions. The loss of currently suitable areas and new additions in new locations varies by scenario. In the southern hemisphere (SH), end-century (2081-2100) suitable areas under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario decline by more than 40% compared to a recent historical period (1991-2010). In the northern hemisphere (NH) suitability increases by 20% to almost 60%. With SSP1-2.6, however, the changes are much smaller with SH area declining by about 25% and NH increasing by about 10%. The results suggest substantial restructuring of global production for these crops. Essentially, climate change shifts temperature-suitable locations toward higher latitudes. In the SH, most of the historically suitable areas were already at the southern end of the landmass limiting opportunities for adaptation. If breeding efforts can bring chilling requirements for the major cultivars closer to that currently seen in some cultivars, suitable areas at the end of the century are greater, but higher summer temperatures offset the extent. The high value of fruit crops provides adaptation opportunities such as cultivar selection, canopy cooling using sprinklers, shade netting, and precision irrigation.

Native solitary bee reproductive success depends on early season precipitation and host plant richness

Spring-emerging bees depend upon the synchronized bloom times of angiosperms that provide pollen and nectar for offspring. The emergence of such bees and bloom times are linked to weather but can be phenologically mismatched, which could limit bee developmental success. However, it remains unclear how such phenologically asynchrony could affect spring-emerging pollinators, and especially for those that forage over a relatively short time period. We examined the relationship between weather and host plant selection on the native spring-foraging solitary bee, Osmia lignaria, across 3 years at urban and rural sites in and around Seattle, Washington, USA. We used community science weather data to test the effects of precipitation, wind, and temperature on O. lignaria oviposition and developmental success. We also collected pollen data over two distinct foraging periods, early and late spring, and used Next-Generation Sequencing to identify plant genera from pollen. Among the weather variables, precipitation during the early foraging period adversely affected larval developmental success and adult bee emergence success, but not oviposition. Using DNA metabarcoding, we observed that increases in the number of plant genera in pollen increased adult emergence in both foraging periods, but not oviposition or larval development. We also observed that foraging bees consistently visited certain genera during each foraging period, especially Acer, Salix, and Rubus. However, pollen collected by O. lignaria over different years varied in the number of total genera visited, highlighting the importance of multi-year studies to ascertain bee foraging preferences and its link to developmental success.

The ecological implications of intra- and inter-species variation in phenological sensitivity

Plant-pollinator mutualisms rely upon the synchrony of interacting taxa. Climate change can disrupt this synchrony as phenological responses to climate vary within and across species. However, intra- and interspecific variation in phenological responses is seldom considered simultaneously, limiting our understanding of climate change impacts on interactions among taxa across their ranges. We investigated how variation in phenological sensitivity to climate can alter ecological interactions simultaneously within and among species using natural history collections and citizen science data. We focus on a unique system, comprising a wide-ranged spring ephemeral with varying color morphs (Claytonia virginica) and its specialist bee pollinator (Andrena erigeniae). We found strongly opposing trends in the phenological sensitivities of plants vs their pollinators. Flowering phenology was more sensitive to temperature in warmer regions, whereas bee phenology was more responsive in colder regions. Phenological sensitivity varied across flower color morphs. Temporal synchrony between flowering and pollinator activity was predicted to change heterogeneously across the species' ranges in the future. Our work demonstrates the complexity and fragility of ecological interactions in time and the necessity of incorporating variation in phenological responses across multiple axes to understand how such interactions will change in the future.

Ecosystems Services Provided by Bats Are at Risk in Brazil

Ecosystem services (ES) are essential for human society worldwide. ES originate from ecological processes commonly occurring in well-preserved regions. Bats play an essential role in providing such services, primarily insect suppression, plant pollination, and seed dispersal. Human activities have affected Earth’s systems, compromising species and ecosystems and, consequently, the ES provision. Brazil is a country with many bat species but is also one of the world’s leaders in deforestation. Here we aimed to identify regions with high potential for bats ecosystem services provision, assuming that the predicted presence of the species represents the existence of the services. First, we used a Maximum Entropy algorithm to model the distribution of 128 bat species, which correspond to 71% of the Brazilian species. We classify all species into 10 different groups, which resulted from a combination of three body sizes and four predominant trophic guilds (i.e., frugivores, insectivores, nectarivores, and carnivores). The guilds were associated with services of seed dispersion, pest control, pollination, and animal control. Then, we created a 0.5 × 0.5-degree grid to represent an index of ES per guild, which is defined by the sum of the product of the bat’s size weight (1, 2, or 3) by the area occupied of each species in each cell. For comparison, the index was normalized and scaled from 0 to 1. Finally, we used a map of current land use to compare the effects of natural area suppression on the provision of ES in each cell. Our results indicate a substantial reduction in the provision of ES by bats in extensive parts of the central and eastern parts of Brazil, but changes in ES varies among biomes. While the loss of species is an important factor affecting the provision of ES in the Atlantic Forest and the Cerrado, the reduction of species occurrence is most important factor in Amazonia, Caatinga, or Pantanal regions. We suggest that degraded area restoration should be promoted in areas with high ES values and areas near cities and croplands and that a precautionary approach of promoting the conservation of high provider richness should be applied to protect the continuation of bat’s ES.

Flowering time advances since the 1970s in a sagebrush steppe community: Implications for management and restoration

Climate change is widely known to affect plant phenology, but little is known about how these impacts manifest in the widespread sagebrush ecosystem of the Western United States, which supports a number of wildlife species of concern. Shifts in plant phenology can trigger consequences for the plants themselves as well as the communities of consumers that depend upon them. We assembled historical observations of first-flowering dates for 51 species collected in the 1970s and 1980s in a montane sagebrush community in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and compared these to contemporary phenological observations targeting the same species and locations (2016-2019). We also assembled regional climate data (average spring temperature, day of spring snowmelt, and growing degree days) and tested the relationship between first-flowering time and these variables for each species. We observed the largest change in phenology in early-spring flowers, which, as a group, bloomed on average 17 days earlier, and as much as 36 days earlier, in the contemporary data set. Mid-summer flowers bloomed on average 10 days earlier, nonnative species 15 days earlier, and berry-producing shrubs 5 days earlier, while late summer flowering plants did not shift. The greatest correlates of early-spring and mid-summer flowering were average spring temperature and day of snowmelt, which was 21 days earlier, on average, in 2016-2019 relative to the 1973-1978 observations. The shifts in flowering phenology that we observed could indicate developing asynchronies or novel synchronies of these plant resources and wildlife species of conservation concern, including Greater Sage-grouse, whose nesting success is tied to availability of spring forbs; grizzly bears, which rely heavily on berries for their fall diet; and pollinators. This underscores the importance of maintaining a diverse portfolio of native plants in terms of species composition, genetics, phenological responsiveness to climatic cues, and ecological importance to key wildlife and pollinator species. Redundancy within ecological niches may also be important considering that species roles in the community may shift as climate change affects them differently. These considerations are particularly relevant to restoration and habitat-enhancement projects in sagebrush communities across western North America.

Stability of crop pollinator occurrence is influenced by bee community composition

Bees provide a vital ecosystem service to agriculture by contributing to the pollination of many leading global crops. Human wellbeing depends not only on the quantity of agricultural yields, but also on the stability and resilience of crop production. Yet a broad understanding of how the diversity and composition of pollinator communities may influence crop pollination service has previously been hindered by a scarcity of standardized data. We used outputs from Bayesian occupancy detection models to examine patterns in the inter-annual occupancy dynamics of the bee pollinator communities of four contrasting crops (apples, field bean, oilseed and strawberries) in Great Britain between 1985 and 2015. We compared how the composition and species richness of different crop pollinator communities may affect the stability of crop pollinator occurrence. Across the four crops, we found that the inter-annual occupancy dynamics of the associated pollinator communities tended to be more similar in smaller communities with closely related pollinator species. Our results indicate that crop pollinator communities composed of a small number of closely related bee species show greater variance in mean occupancy compared to crops with more diverse pollinator communities. Lower variance in the occurrence of crop pollinating bee species may lead to more stable crop pollination services. Finally, whilst our results initially indicated some redundancy within most crop pollinator communities, with no, or little, increase in the variance of overall mean occupancy when species were initially removed, this was followed by a rapid acceleration in the variance of crop pollinator occurrence as each crop's bee pollinator community was increasingly depreciated. High inter-annual variations in pollination services have negative implications for crop production and food security. High bee diversity could ensure more stable and resilient crop pollination services, yet current agri-environment schemes predominantly benefit a limited suite of common species. Management may therefore benefit from targeting a wider diversity of solitary species in order to safeguard crop pollination service in the face of increasing environmental change.

Quantifying phenological diversity: a framework based on Hill numbers theory

Background

Despite the great concern triggered by the environmental crisis worldwide, the loss of temporal key functions and processes involved in biodiversity maintenance has received little attention. Species are restricted in their life cycles by environmental variables because of their physiological and behavioral properties; thus, the timing and duration of species' presence and their activities vary greatly between species within a community. Despite the ecological relevance of such variation, there is currently no measure that summarizes the key temporal aspects of biological diversity and allows comparisons of community phenological patterns. Here, we propose a measure that synthesizes variability of phenological patterns using the Hill numbers-based attribute diversity framework.

Methods

We constructed a new phenological diversity measure based on the aforementioned framework through pairwise overlapping distances, which was supplemented with wavelet analysis. The Hill numbers approach was chosen as an adequate way to define a set of diversity values of different order q, a parameter that determines the sensitivity of the diversity measure to abundance. Wavelet transform analysis was used to model continuous variables from incomplete data sets for different phenophases. The new measure, which we call Phenological Hill numbers (PD), considers the decouplings of phenophases through an overlapping area value between pairs of species within the community. PD was first tested through simulations with varying overlap in phenophase magnitude and intensity and varying number of species, and then by using one real data set.

Results

PD maintains the diversity patterns of order q as in any other diversity measure encompassed by the Hill numbers framework. Minimum PD values in the simulated data sets reflect a lack of differentiation in the phenological curves of the community over time; by contrast, the maximum PD values reflected the most diverse simulations in which phenological curves were equally distributed over time. PD values were consistent with the homogeneous distribution of the intensity and concurrence of phenophases over time, both in the simulated and the real data set.

Discussion

PD provides an efficient, readily interpretable and comparable measure that summarizes the variety of phenological patterns observed in ecological communities. PD retains the diversity patterns of order q characteristic of all diversity measures encompassed by the distance-based Hill numbers framework. In addition, wavelet transform analysis proved useful for constructing a continuous phenological curve. This methodological approach to quantify phenological diversity produces simple and intuitive values for the examination of phenological diversity and can be widely applied to any taxon or community's phenological traits.

Life-history traits predict responses of wild bees to climate variation

Life-history traits, which are physical traits or behaviours that affect growth, survivorship and reproduction, could play an important role in how well organisms respond to environmental change. By looking for trait-based responses within groups, we can gain a mechanistic understanding of why environmental change might favour or penalize certain species over others. We monitored the abundance of at least 154 bee species for 8 consecutive years in a subalpine region of the Rocky Mountains to ask whether bees respond differently to changes in abiotic conditions based on their life-history traits. We found that comb-building cavity nesters and larger bodied bees declined in relative abundance with increasing temperatures, while smaller, soil-nesting bees increased. Further, bees with narrower diet breadths increased in relative abundance with decreased rainfall. Finally, reduced snowpack was associated with reduced relative abundance of bees that overwintered as prepupae whereas bees that overwintered as adults increased in relative abundance, suggesting that overwintering conditions might affect body size, lipid content and overwintering survival. Taken together, our results show how climate change may reshape bee pollinator communities, with bees with certain traits increasing in abundance and others declining, potentially leading to novel plant-pollinator interactions and changes in plant reproduction.

Climate warming changes synchrony of plants and pollinators

Climate warming changes the phenology of many species. When interacting organisms respond differently, climate change may disrupt their interactions and affect the stability of ecosystems. Here, we used global biodiversity facility occurrence records to examine phenology trends in plants and their associated insect pollinators in Germany since the 1980s. We found strong phenological advances in plants but differences in the extent of shifts among pollinator groups. The temporal trends in plant and insect phenologies were generally associated with interannual temperature variation and thus probably driven by climate change. When examining the synchrony of species-level plant-pollinator interactions, their temporal trends differed among pollinator groups. Overall, plant-pollinator interactions become more synchronized, mainly because the phenology of plants, which historically lagged behind that of the pollinators, responded more strongly to climate change. However, if the observed trends continue, many interactions may become more asynchronous again in the future. Our study suggests that climate change affects the phenologies of both plants and insects and that it also influences the synchrony of plant-pollinator interactions.

Opportunities to reduce pollination deficits and address production shortfalls in an important insect-pollinated crop

Pollinators face multiple pressures and there is evidence of populations in decline. As demand for insect-pollinated crops increases, crop production is threatened by shortfalls in pollination services. Understanding the extent of current yield deficits due to pollination and identifying opportunities to protect or improve crop yield and quality through pollination management is therefore of international importance. To explore the extent of "pollination deficits," where maximum yield is not being achieved due to insufficient pollination, we used an extensive dataset on a globally important crop, apples. We quantified how these deficits vary between orchards and countries and we compared "pollinator dependence" across different apple varieties. We found evidence of pollination deficits and, in some cases, risks of overpollination were even apparent for which fruit quality could be reduced by too much pollination. In almost all regions studied we found some orchards performing significantly better than others in terms of avoiding a pollination deficit and crop yield shortfalls due to suboptimal pollination. This represents an opportunity to improve production through better pollinator and crop management. Our findings also demonstrated that pollinator dependence varies considerably between apple varieties in terms of fruit number and fruit quality. We propose that assessments of pollination service and deficits in crops can be used to quantify supply and demand for pollinators and help to target local management to address deficits although crop variety has a strong influence on the role of pollinators.

Phenological Asynchrony Is Associated With Diapause Program and Heat Shock Protein Expression in Three Grasshopper Species in the Inner Mongolian Steppe

Phenological asynchrony is a common and important natural phenomenon that affects interspecific interaction, resource allocation, species survival, and range shift in sympatric species. However, the underpinnings for regulating phenological asynchrony at physiological and molecular levels remains less explored. We investigated the seasonal pattern of emergence period and abundance in three dominant grasshopper species, namely, Dasyhipus barbipes, Oedalus asiaticus, and Chorthippus dubius, which occur sympatrically in the Inner Mongolian steppe. The three grasshopper species decoupled their population occurrence phenology that occurred in a growing season between May and September and diverged into early, middle, and late seasonal species. We also examined the association of embryonic diapause and heat shock protein (Hsp) expression with phenological asynchrony in the three species. The species developed different embryonic diapause programs, i.e., obligate diapause, facultative diapause, and non-diapause, to control the timing of egg hatching and seasonality of population occurrence. The diapausing eggs exhibited significantly enhanced supercooling capacity compared with pre- and post-diapausing eggs. Gene expression analysis in the developmental process revealed that three Hsps, e.g., Hsp20.6, Hsp40, and Hsp90, were significantly upregulated in diapause state relative to that in pre- and post-diapause states; expression of these genes seems to be associated with the diapause program regulation. This study provides a possible mechanistic explanation for phenological differentiation among sympatric species in a typical steppe habitat and establishes a potential linkage among phenological asynchrony, diapause, and Hsp gene expression. The findings will facilitate our prediction of population dynamics and pest management.

Bumblebee resilience to climate change, through plastic and adaptive responses

Bumblebees are ubiquitous, cold-adapted eusocial bees found worldwide from subarctic to tropical regions of the world. They are key pollinators in most temperate and boreal ecosystems, and both wild and managed populations are significant contributors to agricultural pollination services. Despite their broad ecological niche at the genus level, bumblebee species are threatened by climate change, particularly by rising average temperatures, intensifying seasonality and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. While some temperature extremes may be offset at the individual or colony level through temperature regulation, most bumblebees are expected to exhibit specific plastic responses, selection in various key traits, and/or range contractions under even the mildest climate change. In this review, we provide an in-depth and up-to-date review on the various ways by which bumblebees overcome the threats associated with current and future global change. We use examples relevant to the fields of bumblebee physiology, morphology, behaviour, phenology, and dispersal to illustrate and discuss the contours of this new theoretical framework. Furthermore, we speculate on the extent to which adaptive responses to climate change may be influenced by bumblebees' capacity to disperse and track suitable climate conditions. Closing the knowledge gap and improving our understanding of bumblebees' adaptability or avoidance behaviour to different climatic circumstances will be necessary to improve current species climate response models. These models are essential to make correct predictions of species vulnerability in the face of future climate change and human-induced environmental changes to unfold appropriate future conservation strategies.

Plant Phenology Dynamics and Pollination Networks in Summits of the High Tropical Andes: A Baseline for Monitoring Climate Change Impacts

Analyzing plant phenology and plant–animal interaction networks can provide sensitive mechanistic indicators to understand the response of alpine plant communities to climate change. However, monitoring data to analyze these processes is scarce in alpine ecosystems, particularly in the highland tropics. The Andean páramos constitute the coldest biodiversity hotspot on Earth, and their species and ecosystems are among the most exposed and vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Here, we analyze for the first time baseline data for monitoring plant phenological dynamics and plant–pollinator networks along an elevation gradient between 4,200 and 4,600 m asl in three mountain summits of the Venezuelan Andes, which are part of the GLORIA monitoring network. We estimated the presence and density of plants with flowers in all the summits and in permanent plots, every month for 1 year. Additionally, we identified pollinators. We calculated a phenological overlap index between species. We summarized the plant–pollinator interactions as a bipartite matrix and represented a quantitative plant–pollinator network, calculating structural properties (grade, connectance, nestedness, and specialization). We also evaluated whether the overall network structure was influenced by differences in sampling effort, changes in species composition between summits, and phenology of the plant species. Finally, we characterized the pollination syndrome of all species. Flowering showed a marked seasonality, with a peak toward the end of the wet season. The overall phenological overlap index was low (0.32), suggesting little synchrony in flowering among species. Species richness of both plants and pollinators decreased along the elevation gradient. Flies, bumblebees, and hummingbirds were the most frequent pollinators in the network, while entomophily and anemophily were the prevailing pollination syndromes. The interaction network in all summits showed high connectance values, significant specialization (H2), and low nestedness. We did not find a significant effect of sampling effort, summit plant species composition, or plant phenology on network structure. Our results indicate that these high tropical alpine plant communities and their plant-pollination networks could be particularly vulnerable to the loss of species in climate change scenarios, given their low species richness and functional redundancy coupled with a high degree of specialization and endemism.

Blueberry Yields Increase With Bee Visitation Rates, but Bee Visitation Rates are not Consistently Predicted by Colony Stocking Densities

Pollinator-dependent crops rely on the activity of managed and wild pollinators. While farm management and surrounding landscape can influence wild pollinator contributions, managed pollinator contributions may be primarily driven by their stocking densities, though this is not well studied across crops. We selected 20 southern highbush blueberry farms along two independent gradients of honey bee Apis mellifera L. (Hymenoptera: Apidae) stocking density (~1-11 hives/acre) and bumble bee Bombus impatiens Cresson (Hymenoptera: Apidae) stocking density (0 - 3 colonies/acre) ensuring that stocking densities were not correlated with farm or landscape attributes. Across farms, we observed managed and wild bee visitation rates, and measured yield estimates. Farms with greater bumble bee stocking densities had higher bumble bee visitation rates and yield estimates, but farms with higher honey bee stocking densities only received higher honey bee visitation rates at the end of bloom and did not have higher yield estimates. The main wild pollinator, the southeastern blueberry bee Habropoda laboriosa (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera: Apidae), showed higher visitation rates on organic farms and in late bloom. In general, higher visitation rates by honey bees, bumble bees, and H. laboriosa were correlated with higher yields. Our results suggest that yields are limited by bee visitation rates, and that within the stocking density ranges studied, increasing managed bumble bees, but not honey bees, increases their visitation rates. While H. laboriosa had the greatest effect on yield estimates, its activity appears to be limited by both a phenological mismatch with crop bloom and farm management.

How does climate change affect social insects?

Climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity, already causing sharp declines of populations and species. In some social insect species we already see advanced phenologies, changes in distribution ranges, and changes in abundance Rafferty (2017) and Diamond et al. (2017). Physiologically, social insects are no different from solitary insects, but they possess a number of characteristics that distinguish their response to climate change. Here, we examine these traits, which might enable them to cope better with climate change than solitary insects, but only in the short term. In addition, we discuss how climate change will alter biotic interactions and ecosystem functions, and how it will affect invasive social insects.

Historical decrease in agricultural landscape diversity is associated with shifts in bumble bee species occurrence

Agricultural intensification is a key suspect among putative drivers of recent insect declines, but an explicit link between historical change in agricultural land cover and insect occurrence is lacking. Determining whether agriculture impacts beneficial insects (e.g. pollinators), is crucial to enhancing agricultural sustainability. Here, we combine large spatiotemporal sets of historical bumble bee and agricultural records to show that increasing cropland extent and decreasing crop richness were associated with declines in over 50% of bumble bee species in the agriculturally intensive Midwest, USA. Critically, we found that high crop diversity was associated with a higher occurrence of many species pre-1950 even in agriculturally dominated areas, but that current agricultural landscapes are devoid of high crop diversity. Our findings suggest that insect conservation and agricultural production may be compatible, with increasing on-farm and landscape-level crop diversity predicted to have positive effects on bumble bees.

Phenological sensitivity to temperature mediates herbivory

Species interactions drive ecosystem processes and are a major focus of global change research. Among the most consequential interactions expected to shift with climate change are those between insect herbivores and plants, both of which are highly sensitive to temperature. Insect herbivores and their host plants display varying levels of synchrony that could be disrupted or enhanced by climate change, yet empirical data on changes in synchrony are lacking. Using evidence of herbivory on herbarium specimens collected from the northeastern United States and France from 1900 to 2015, we provide evidence that plant species with temperature-sensitive phenologies experience higher levels of insect damage in warmer years, while less temperature-sensitive, co-occurring species do not. While herbivory might be mediated by interactions between warming and phenology through multiple pathways, we suggest that warming might lengthen growing seasons for phenologically sensitive plant species, exposing their leaves to herbivores for longer periods of time in warm years. We propose that elevated herbivory in warm years may represent a previously underappreciated cost to phenological tracking of climate change over longer timescales.

Experimental evidence of the importance of multitrophic structure for species persistence

Ecological theory predicts that species interactions embedded in multitrophic networks shape the opportunities for species to persist. However, the lack of experimental support of this prediction has limited our understanding of how species interactions occurring within and across trophic levels simultaneously regulate the maintenance of biodiversity. Here, we integrate a mathematical approach and detailed experiments in plant-pollinator communities to demonstrate the need to jointly account for species interactions within and across trophic levels when estimating the ability of species to persist. Within the plant trophic level, we show that the persistence probability of plant species increases when introducing the effects of plant-pollinator interactions. Across trophic levels, we show that the persistence probabilities of both plants and pollinators exhibit idiosyncratic changes when experimentally manipulating the multitrophic structure. Importantly, these idiosyncratic effects are not recovered by traditional simulations. Our work provides tractable experimental and theoretical platforms upon which it is possible to investigate the multitrophic factors affecting species persistence in ecological communities.

Wild insect diversity increases inter-annual stability in global crop pollinator communities

While an increasing number of studies indicate that the range, diversity and abundance of many wild pollinators has declined, the global area of pollinator-dependent crops has significantly increased over the last few decades. Crop pollination studies to date have mainly focused on either identifying different guilds pollinating various crops, or on factors driving spatial changes and turnover observed in these communities. The mechanisms driving temporal stability for ecosystem functioning and services, however, remain poorly understood. Our study quantifies temporal variability observed in crop pollinators in 21 different crops across multiple years at a global scale. Using data from 43 studies from six continents, we show that (i) higher pollinator diversity confers greater inter-annual stability in pollinator communities, (ii) temporal variation observed in pollinator abundance is primarily driven by the three-most dominant species, and (iii) crops in tropical regions demonstrate higher inter-annual variability in pollinator species richness than crops in temperate regions. We highlight the importance of recognizing wild pollinator diversity in agricultural landscapes to stabilize pollinator persistence across years to protect both biodiversity and crop pollination services. Short-term agricultural management practices aimed at dominant species for stabilizing pollination services need to be considered alongside longer term conservation goals focussed on maintaining and facilitating biodiversity to confer ecological stability.

Improving Habitat Quality at the Local and Landscape Scales Increases Wild Bee Assemblages and Associated Pollination Services in Apple Orchards in China

Bees provide key pollination services for a wide range of crops. Accumulating evidence shows the effect of semi-natural habitats at the landscape level and local management practices on bee diversity in fields. However, most of the evidence is derived from studies in North America and Europe. Whether this paradigm is applicable in China, which is characterized by smallholder-dominated agricultural landscapes, has rarely been studied. In this study, we aimed to investigate how bee diversity affected apple production, and how landscape and local variables affected bee diversity and species composition on the Northern China Plain. The results showed that bees significantly increased apple fruit set compared to bagged controls. Wild bee diversity was positively related to apple seed numbers. Higher seed numbers reduced the proportion of deformed apples and thus increased fruit quality. Wild bee abundance was positively correlated with flowering ground cover, and both the abundance and species richness of wild bees were positively affected by the percentage of semi-natural habitats. We conclude that apple quality can benefit from ecological intensification comprising the augmentation of wild bees by semi-natural habitats and flowering ground cover. Future pollination management should therefore reduce the intensification level of management at both the local and landscape scales.

Apple phenology occurs earlier across South Korea with higher temperatures and increased precipitation

This study examined relationships between temperature, precipitation, geo-topography, and the spring phenology of Fuji and Hongro apple cultivars along spatial gradients across South Korea. Phenology data was gathered from 2011 to 2014 in 42 uniformly managed research orchards which span a range in climate, latitude, and elevation. We used linear models and spatially explicit forecasts to study apple phenology under climate change scenarios. Given dry winters and complex terrain in South Korea, we hypothesized that, in addition to temperature, precipitation and geo-topographic factors influence apple phenology. We also expected responses to climate variation to be similar between (spatial) and within (temporal) orchards, given the controlled conditions and the use of apple clones in this study. With other factors held constant, phenological sensitivity ranged from - 3.2 to - 3.4 days °C^-1 for air temperature and - 0.5 to - 0.6 days cm^-1 for March precipitation in a combined model. When modeled without temperature, phenology changed by up to 10 days over the full range in March precipitation. Spring temperatures and precipitation in March had very little cross-correlation (r < 0.05), suggesting these patterns are independent; however, in a combined model including temperature, predicted changes in precipitation over the next 80 years have only a small impact on future apple phenology. Combining the best models with climate forecasts for South Korea, spring phenology continues to occur earlier over the next 80 years, mostly due to warming temperatures but with strong variation between regions. This suggests regionally specific climate change adaptation strategies are needed for future apple production in South Korea.

Evolutionary developmental biology and sustainability: A biology of resilience

Evolutionary developmental biology, and especially ecological developmental biology, is essential for discussions of sustainability and the responses to global climate change. First, this paper explores examples of animals that have successfully altered their development to accommodate human-made changes to their environments. We next document the ability of global warming to disrupt the development of those organisms with temperature-dependent sex-determination or with phenologies coordinating that organism's development with those of other species. The thermotolerance of Homo sapiens is also related to key developmental factors concerning brain development and maintenance, and the development of corals, the keystone organisms of tropical reefs, is discussed in relation to global warming as well as to other anthropogenic changes. While teratogenic and endocrine-disrupting compounds are not discussed in this essay, the ability of glyphosate herbicides to block insect development is highlighted. Last, the paper discusses the need to creatively integrate developmental biology with ecological, political, religious, and economic perspectives, as the flourishing of contemporary species may require altering the ways that Western science has considered the categories of nature, culture, and self.

Pollinator biodiversity and crop pollination in temperate ecosystems, implications for national pollinator conservation strategies: Mini review

Pollinator biodiversity and biomass are in decline globally. This fact accompanied by shortage and collapses of domesticated pollinator colonies, puts human food security under unprecedented threat. Many countries worldwide have adopted or intend to introduce national pollinator conservation strategies. Decisions of policy makers and other involved stakeholders are often driven by pragmatic considerations, rather than biodiversity conservation per se. At the same time, different opinions exist in the literature on the role of pollinator biodiversity versus abundance of few dominant species in crop pollination. This article critically evaluates the literature in order to understand the importance of biodiversity over abundance and to examine the effectiveness of conservation strategies. Results of this review suggest that pollinator biodiversity is critical for crop pollination quality, magnitude and resilience. Most current national pollinator conservation strategies lack comprehensive measures for maintaining pollinator biodiversity at a landscape scale.

Broader phenology of pollinator activity and higher plant reproductive success in an urban habitat compared to a rural one

Urban habitat characteristics create environmental filtering of pollinator communities. They also impact pollinating insect phenology through the presence of an urban heat island and the year-round availability of floral resources provided by ornamental plants.Here, we monitored the phenology and composition of pollinating insect communities visiting replicates of an experimental plant assemblage comprising two species, with contrasting floral traits: Sinapis alba and Lotus corniculatus, whose flowering periods were artificially extended. Plant assemblage replicates were set up over two consecutive years in two different habitats: rural and densely urbanized, within the same biogeographical region (Ile-de-France region, France).The phenology of pollination activity, recorded from the beginning (early March) to the end (early November) of the season, differed between these two habitats. Several pollinator morphogroups (small wild bees, bumblebees, honeybees) were significantly more active on our plant sets in the urban habitat compared to the rural one, especially in early spring and autumn. This resulted in different overall reproductive success of the plant assemblage between the two habitats. Over the course of the season, reproductive success of S. alba was always significantly higher in the urban habitat, while reproductive success of L. corniculatus was significantly higher in the urban habitat only during early flowering.These findings suggest different phenological adaptations to the urban habitat for different groups of pollinators. Overall, results indicate that the broadened activity period of pollinating insects recorded in the urban environment could enhance the pollination function and the reproductive success of plant communities in cities.

Challenges in predicting the outcome of competition based on climate change-induced phenological and body size shifts

Climate change is creating warmer, earlier springs, which are causing the phenology of many organisms to shift. Additionally, as temperatures increase, the body size of many ectotherms is decreasing. However, phenological and body size shifts are not occurring at the same rates across species, even in species that live in close proximity or have similar life history. Differing rates of phenological and body-size shifts may affect ecological interactions. We investigated whether shifts in phenology and body size had a predictable effect on interspecific competition. We tested three hypotheses. First, priority effects would indicate early arriving organisms gain a competitive advantage. Second, larger organisms would be competitively superior. Third, similarly sized organisms would compete more strongly. We manipulated aquatic larval conditions to create variation in wood frog (Rana sylvatica) size at and date of metamorphosis. Wood frogs were placed in terrestrial enclosures with unmanipulated juvenile American toads (Anaxyrus americanus) where we tracked amphibian growth over 3 months. Consistent with the size superiority hypothesis, initially smaller wood frogs did not compete as strongly with toads. However, the results of the phenological shift were the opposite of our priority effects prediction: early arrival by frogs increased toad mass. Our results could indicate that toads would experience fewer negative effects of competition with wood frogs that metamorphose earlier and smaller under climate change. Our study highlights the challenges of predicting how climate change will affect interspecific interactions and emphasizes the need to investigate the role of shifts in both phenology and body size.

Non-parallel changes in songbird migration timing are not explained by changes in stopover duration

Shifts in the timing of animal migration are widespread and well-documented; however, the mechanism underlying these changes is largely unknown. In this study, we test the hypothesis that systematic changes in stopover duration—the time that individuals spend resting and refueling at a site—are driving shifts in songbird migration timing. Specifically, we predicted that increases in stopover duration at our study site could generate increases in passage duration—the number of days that a study site is occupied by a particular species—by changing the temporal breadth of observations and vise versa. We analyzed an uninterrupted 46-year bird banding dataset from Massachusetts, USA using quantile regression, which allowed us to detect changes in early-and late-arriving birds, as well as changes in passage duration. We found that median spring migration had advanced by 1.04 days per decade; that these advances had strengthened over the last 13 years; and that early-and late-arriving birds were advancing in parallel, leading to negligible changes in the duration of spring passage at our site (+0.07 days per decade). In contrast, changes in fall migration were less consistent. Across species, we found that median fall migration had delayed by 0.80 days per decade, and that changes were stronger in late-arriving birds, leading to an average increase in passage duration of 0.45 days per decade. Trends in stopover duration, however, were weak and negative and, as a result, could not explain any changes in passage duration. We discuss, and provide some evidence, that changes in population age-structure, cryptic geographic variation, or shifts in resource availability are consistent with increases in fall passage duration. Moreover, we demonstrate the importance of evaluating changes across the entire phenological distribution, rather than just the mean, and stress this as an important consideration for future studies.