Mechanical vulnerability explains size-dependent mortality of reef corals

Trade-offs in a reef-building coral after six years of thermal acclimation

There is growing evidence that reef-building corals can acclimate to novel and challenging thermal conditions. However, potential trade-offs that accompany acclimation remain largely unexplored. We investigated physiological trade-offs in colonies of a globally abundant coral species (Pocillopora acuta) that were acclimated ex situ to an elevated temperature of 31 °C (i.e., 1 °C above their bleaching threshold) for six years. By comparing them to conspecifics maintained at a cooler temperature, we found that the energy storage of corals was prioritized over skeletal growth at the elevated temperature. This was associated with the formation of higher density skeletons, lower calcification rates and consequently lower skeletal extension rates, which entails ramifications for future reef-building processes, structural complexity and reef community composition. Furthermore, symbionts were physiologically compromised at 31 °C and had overall lower energy reserves, likely due to increased exploitation by their host, resulting in an overall lower stress resilience of the holobiont. Our study shows how biological trade-offs of thermal acclimation unfold, helping to refine our picture of future coral reef trajectories. Importantly, our observations in this six-year study do not align with observations of short-term studies, where elevated temperatures were often associated with the depletion of energy reserves, highlighting the importance of studying acclimation of organisms at relevant biological scales.

Seabirds boost coral reef resilience

Global climate change threatens tropical coral reefs, yet local management can influence resilience. While increasing anthropogenic nutrients reduce coral resistance and recovery, it is unknown how the loss, or restoration, of natural nutrient flows affects reef recovery. Here, we test how natural seabird-derived nutrient subsidies, which are threatened by invasive rats, influence the mechanisms and patterns of reef recovery following an extreme marine heatwave using multiyear field experiments, repeated surveys, and Bayesian modeling. Corals transplanted from rat to seabird islands quickly assimilated seabird-derived nutrients, fully acclimating to new nutrient conditions within 3 years. Increased seabird-derived nutrients, in turn, caused a doubling of coral growth rates both within individuals and across entire reefs. Seabirds were also associated with faster recovery time of Acropora coral cover (<4 years) and more dynamic recovery trajectories of entire benthic communities. We conclude that restoring seabird populations and associated nutrient pathways may foster greater coral reef resilience through enhanced growth and recovery rates of corals.

Recent and rapid reef recovery around Koh Phangan Island, Gulf of Thailand, driven by plate-like hard corals

Mass bleaching events and local anthropogenic influences have changed the benthic communities of many coral reefs with pronounced spatial differences that are linked to resilience patterns. The Gulf of Thailand is an under-investigated region with only few existing datasets containing long-term developments of coral reef communities using the same method at fixed sites. We thus analyzed benthic community data from seven reefs surrounding the island of Koh Phangan collected between 2014 and 2022. Findings revealed that the average live hard coral cover around Koh Phangan increased from 37% to 55% over the observation period, while turf algae cover decreased from 52% to 29%, indicating some recovery of local reefs. This corresponds to a mean increased rate of coral cover by 2.2% per year. The increase in live hard coral cover was mainly driven by plate-like corals, which quadrupled in proportion over the last decade from 7% to 28% while branching corals decreased in proportion from 9% to 2%. Furthermore, the hard coral genus richness increased, indicating an increased hard coral diversity. While in other reefs, increasing live hard coral cover is often attributed to fast-growing, branching coral species, considered more susceptible to bleaching and other disturbances, the reefs around Koh Phangan recovered mainly via growth of plate-like corals, particularly of the genus Montipora. Although plate-like morphologies are not necessarily more bleaching tolerant, they are important for supporting reef fish abundance and structural complexity on reefs, aiding reef recovery and sturdiness. Hence, our findings indicate that the intensity of local stressors around Kho Phangan allows reef recovery driven by some hard coral species.

Disturbance-Induced Changes in Population Size Structure Promote Coral Biodiversity

AbstractReef-building coral assemblages are typically species rich, yet the processes maintaining high biodiversity remain poorly understood. Disturbance has long been thought to promote coral species coexistence by reducing the strength of competition (i.e., the intermediate disturbance hypothesis [IDH]). However, such disturbance-induced effects are insufficient to inhibit competitive exclusion. Nevertheless, there are other mechanisms by which disturbance and, more generally, environmental variation can favor coexistence. Here, we develop a size-structured, stochastic coral competition model calibrated with field data from two common colony morphologies to investigate the effects of hydrodynamic disturbance on community dynamics. We show that fluctuations in wave action can promote coral species coexistence but that this occurs via interspecific differences in size-dependent mortality rather than solely via stochastic fluctuations in competition (i.e., free space availability). While this mechanism differs from that originally envisioned in the IDH, it is nonetheless a mechanism by which intermediate levels of disturbance do promote coexistence. Given the sensitivity of coexistence to disturbance frequency and intensity, anthropogenic changes in disturbance regimes are likely to affect coral assemblages in ways that are not predictable from single-population models.

Divergent recovery trajectories of intertidal and subtidal coral communities highlight habitat-specific recovery dynamics following bleaching in an extreme macrotidal reef environment

Coral reefs face an uncertain future punctuated by recurring climate-induced disturbances. Understanding how reefs can recover from and reassemble after mass bleaching events is therefore important to predict their responses and persistence in a rapidly changing ocean. On naturally extreme reefs characterized by strong daily temperature variability, coral heat tolerance can vary significantly over small spatial gradients but it remains poorly understood how this impacts bleaching resilience and recovery dynamics, despite their importance as resilience hotspots and potential refugia. In the macrotidal Kimberley region in NW Australia, the 2016 global mass bleaching event had a strong habitat-specific impact on intertidal and subtidal coral communities at our study site: corals in the thermally variable intertidal bleached less severely and recovered within six months, while 68% of corals in the moderately variable subtidal died. We therefore conducted benthic surveys 3.5 years after the bleaching event to determine potential changes in benthic cover and coral community composition. In the subtidal, we documented substantial increases in algal cover and live coral cover had not fully recovered to pre-bleaching levels. Furthermore, the subtidal coral community shifted from being dominated by branching Acropora corals with a competitive life history strategy to opportunistic, weedy Pocillopora corals which likely has implications for the functioning and stress resilience of this novel coral community. In contrast, no shifts in algal and live coral cover or coral community composition occurred in the intertidal. These findings demonstrate that differences in coral heat tolerance across small spatial scales can have large consequences for bleaching resilience and that spatial patchiness in recovery trajectories and community reassembly after bleaching might be a common feature on thermally variable reefs. Our findings further confirm that reefs adapted to high daily temperature variability play a key role as resilience hotspots under current climate conditions, but their ability to do so may be limited under intensifying ocean warming.

Prediction of habitat complexity using a trait-based approach on coral reefs in Guam

Scleractinian corals are primary contributors to the structural complexity of coral reef ecosystems. The structure derived from their carbonate skeletons underpins the biodiversity and myriad of ecosystem services provided by coral reefs. This study used a trait-based approach to provide new insights into the relationships between habitat complexity and coral morphology. Three-Dimensional (3D) photogrammetry techniques were used to survey 208 study plots on the island of Guam, from which structural complexity metrics were derived and physical traits of corals were quantified. Three traits at the individual colony level (e.g., morphology, size, and genera) and two site-level environmental characteristics (e.g., wave exposure and substratum-habitat type) were examined. Standard taxonomy-based metrics were also included at the reef-plot level (e.g., coral abundance, richness, and diversity). Different traits disproportionately contributed to 3D metrics of habitat complexity. Larger colonies with a columnar morphology have the highest contribution to surface complexity, slope, and vector ruggedness measure, whereas branching and encrusting columnar colonies have the highest contribution to planform and profile curvature. These results highlight the importance of considering colony morphology and size in addition to conventional taxonomic metrics for the understanding and monitoring reef structural complexity. The approach presented here provides a framework for studies in other locations to predict the trajectory of reefs under changing environmental conditions.

Differential bleaching susceptibility among coral taxa and colony sizes, relative to bleaching severity across Australia's Great Barrier Reef and Coral Sea Marine Parks

Climate-induced coral bleaching represents the foremost threat to coral assemblages globally, however bleaching susceptibility varies among and within coral taxa. We compared bleaching susceptibility among 10 coral morpho-taxa and two colony size classes relative to reef-scale bleaching severity at 33 reefs across the Great Barrier Reef and Coral Sea Marine Parks in February-March 2020. Colony size and bleaching severity caused the hierarchy of bleaching susceptibility among taxa to change considerably. Notably, massive Porites shifted from being among the least likely taxa to exhibit bleaching, to among the most susceptible as overall bleaching severity increased. Juvenile corals (≤5 cm diameter) were generally more resistant to bleaching, except for Montipora and Pocillopora colonies, which were more likely to bleach than adults (>5 cm). These findings suggest that colony size and reef-scale bleaching severity are important determinants of bleaching susceptibility among taxa and provide insights into possible shifts in the structure of coral assemblages caused by bleaching events.

Highly conserved thermal performance strategies may limit adaptive potential in corals

Increasing seawater temperatures are expected to have profound consequences for reef-building corals' physiology. Understanding how demography changes in response to chronic exposure to warming will help forecast how coral communities will respond to climate change. Here, we measure growth rates of coral fragments of four common species, while exposing them to temperatures ranging from 19°C to 31°C for one month to calibrate their thermal-performance curves (TPCs). Our results show that, while there are contrasting differences between species, the shape of the TPCs was remarkably consistent among individuals of the same species. The low variation in thermal sensitivity within species may imply a reduced capacity for rapid adaptive responses to future changes in thermal regimes. Additionally, interspecific differences in thermal responses show a negative relationship between maximum growth and thermal optima, contradicting expectations derived from the classic 'warmer-is-better' hypothesis. Among species, there was a trade-off between current and future growth, whereby most species perform well under current thermal regimes but are susceptible to future increases in temperature. Increases in water temperature with climate change are likely to reduce growth rates, further hampering future coral reef recovery rates and potentially altering community composition.

Net effects of life-history traits explain persistent differences in abundance among similar species

Life-history traits are promising tools to predict species commonness and rarity because they influence a population's fitness in a given environment. Yet, species with similar traits can have vastly different abundances, challenging the prospect of robust trait-based predictions. Using long-term demographic monitoring, we show that coral populations with similar morphological and life-history traits show persistent (decade-long) differences in abundance. Morphological groups predicted species positions along two, well known life-history axes (the fast-slow continuum and size-specific fecundity). However, integral projection models revealed that density-independent population growth (λ) was more variable within morphological groups, and was consistently higher in dominant species relative to rare species. Within-group λ differences projected large abundance differences among similar species in short timeframes, and were generated by small but compounding variation in growth, survival, and reproduction. Our study shows that easily measured morphological traits predict demographic strategies, yet small life-history differences can accumulate into large differences in λ and abundance among similar species. Quantifying the net effects of multiple traits on population dynamics is therefore essential to anticipate species commonness and rarity.

Optimizing facility location, sizing, and growth time for a cultivated resource: A case study in coral aquaculture

Production of cultivated resources require additional planning that takes growth time into account. We formulate a mathematical programming model to determine the optimal location and sizing of growth facilities, impacted by resource survival rate as a function of its growth time. Our method informs strategic decisions regarding the number, location, and sizing of facilities, as well as operational decisions of optimal growth time for a cultivated resource in a facility to minimize total costs. We solve this facility location and sizing problem in the context of coral aquaculture for large-scale reef restoration using a two-stage algorithm and a linear mixed-integer solver. We assess growth time in a facility in terms of its impact on survival (post-deployment) considering growth quantity requirements and growth facility production constraints. We explore the sensitivity of optimal facility number, location, and sizing to changes in the geographic distribution of demand and cost parameters computationally. Results show that the relationship between growth time and survival is critical to optimizing operational decisions for grown resources. These results inform the value of data certainty to optimize the logistics of coral aquaculture production.

Evidence for adaptive morphological plasticity in the Caribbean coral, Acropora cervicornis

Genotype-by-environment interactions (GxE) indicate that variation in organismal traits cannot be explained by fixed effects of genetics or site-specific plastic responses alone. For tropical coral reefs experiencing dramatic environmental change, identifying the contributions of genotype, environment, and GxE on coral performance will be vital for both predicting persistence and developing restoration strategies. We quantified the impacts of G, E, and GxE on the morphology and survival of the endangered coral, Acropora cervicornis, through an in situ transplant experiment exposing common garden (nursery)-raised clones of ten genotypes to nine reef sites in the Florida Keys. By fate-tracking outplants over one year with colony-level 3D photogrammetry, we uncovered significant GxE on coral size, shape, and survivorship, indicating that no universal winner exists in terms of colony performance. Rather than differences in mean trait values, we found that individual-level morphological plasticity is adaptive in that the most plastic individuals also exhibited the fastest growth and highest survival. This indicates that adaptive morphological plasticity may continue to evolve, influencing the success of A. cervicornis and resulting reef communities in a changing climate. As focal reefs are active restoration sites, the knowledge that variation in phenotype is an important predictor of performance can be directly applied to restoration planning. Taken together, these results establish A. cervicornis as a system for studying the ecoevolutionary dynamics of phenotypic plasticity that also can inform genetic- and environment-based strategies for coral restoration.

Evolutionary responses of a reef-building coral to climate change at the end of the last glacial maximum

Climate change threatens the survival of coral reefs on a global scale, primarily through mass bleaching and mortality as a result of marine heatwaves. While these short-term effects are clear, predicting the fate of coral reefs over the coming century is a major challenge. One way to understand the longer-term effects of rapid climate change is to examine the response of coral populations to past climate shifts. Coastal and shallow-water marine ecosystems such as coral reefs have been reshaped many times by sea-level changes during the Pleistocene, yet, few studies have directly linked this with its consequences on population demographics, dispersal, and adaptation. Here we use powerful analytical techniques, afforded by haplotype phased whole-genomes, to establish such links for the reef-building coral, Acropora digitifera. We show that three genetically distinct populations are present in northwestern Australia, and that their rapid divergence since the last glacial maximum (LGM) can be explained by a combination of founder-effects and restricted gene flow. Signatures of selective sweeps, too strong to be explained by demographic history, are present in all three populations and overlap with genes that show different patterns of functional enrichment between inshore and offshore habitats. In contrast to rapid divergence in the host, we find that photosymbiont communities are largely undifferentiated between corals from all three locations, spanning almost 1000 km, indicating that selection on host genes and not acquisition of novel symbionts, has been the primary driver of adaptation for this species in northwestern Australia.

Experimental considerations of acute heat stress assays to quantify coral thermal tolerance

Understanding the distribution and abundance of heat tolerant corals across seascapes is imperative for predicting responses to climate change and to support novel management actions. Thermal tolerance is variable in corals and intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of tolerance are not well understood. Traditional experimental evaluations of coral heat and bleaching tolerance typically involve ramp-and-hold experiments run across days to weeks within aquarium facilities with limits to colony replication. Field-based acute heat stress assays have emerged as an alternative experimental approach to rapidly quantify heat tolerance in many samples yet the role of key methodological considerations on the stress response measured remains unresolved. Here, we quantify the effects of coral fragment size, sampling time point, and physiological measures on the acute heat stress response in adult corals. The effect of fragment size differed between species (Acropora tenuis and Pocillopora damicornis). Most physiological parameters measured here declined over time (tissue colour, chlorophyll-a and protein content) from the onset of heating, with the exception of maximum photosynthetic efficiency (F_v/F_m) which was surprisingly stable over this time scale. Based on our experiments, we identified photosynthetic efficiency, tissue colour change, and host-specific assays such as catalase activity as key physiological measures for rapid quantification of thermal tolerance. We recommend that future applications of acute heat stress assays include larger fragments (> 9 cm²) where possible and sample between 10 and 24 h after the end of heat stress. A validated high-throughput experimental approach combined with cost-effective genomic and physiological measurements underpins the development of markers and maps of heat tolerance across seascapes and ocean warming scenarios.

Persistence of a sessile benthic organism promoted by a morphological strategy combining sheets and trees

Sessile organisms exploit a life-history strategy in which adults are immobile and their growth position is determined at settlement. The morphological strategy exploited by these organisms has strong selective value, because it can allow beneficial matching of morphology to environmental and biological conditions. In benthic marine environments, a 'sheet-tree' morphology is a classic mechanism exploited by select sessile organisms, and milleporine hydrocorals provide one of the best examples of this strategy. Using 30-year analysis of Millepora sp. on the reefs of St. John, US Virgin Islands, I tested for the benefits of a sheet-tree morphology in mediating the ecological success of an important functional group of benthic space holders. The abundance of Millepora sp. chaotically changed from 1992 to 2021 in concert with hurricanes, bleaching and macroalgal crowding. Millepora sp. responded to these disturbances by exploiting their morphological strategy to increase the use of trees when their sheets were compromised by bleaching and spatial competition with macroalgae, and the use of sheets when their trees were broken by storms. Together, these results reveal the selective value of a plastic sheet-tree morphology, which can be exploited by sessile organisms to respond to decadal-scale variation in environmental conditions.

Functional Richness and Resilience in Coral Reef Communities

Within the Anthropocene the functional diversity of coral communities is changing rapidly, putting the resilience of many coral reef ecosystems in jeopardy. A better understanding of the relationship between coral functional diversity and reef resilience could reveal practical ways to achieve increased resilience. However, manipulating coral diversity experimentally is challenging, and consequently the links between coral functional diversity, resilience, and ecosystem functioning remain obscure. We used an ecologically detailed agent-based model to conduct a virtual experiment in which functional diversity was manipulated over the entire trait space of scleractinian corals. Using an imputed trait dataset of 798 coral species and eight key functional traits, we assembled 245 functionally distinct coral communities, which we subjected to a cyclone and bleaching event. We then measured four different aspects of their resilience and quantified for each measure the respective effect of (i) the functional richness (FRic), and (ii) community-weighted means (CWM) of four types of trait: effect, resistance, recovery, and competitive. FRic represents the volume occupied by a community in the functional space, while CWM indicates the location of the communities’ centroid in the functional space. We found a significant and positive effect of FRic on three measures of resilience: communities with higher FRic recovered surface cover faster and had more rugosity and cover 10 years after the disturbances. In contrast, the resistance of the coral community—i.e., the capacity to maintain surface cover when subjected to the disturbances—was independent of FRic and was determined primarily by the CWM of resistance traits. By analyzing community dynamics and functional trade-offs, we show that FRic increases resilience via the selection and the insurance effects due to the presence of competitive species in the functional space, i.e., those highly dominant species that contribute the most to the complexity of the habitat and recover quickly from disturbances. Building from the results of our experiment and the trait correlation analysis, we discuss the potential for FRic to serve as a proxy measure of resilience and we present a strategy that can provide direction to on-going reef restoration efforts, and pave the way for sustaining coral communities in a context of rapid global change.

Culling corallivores improves short-term coral recovery under bleaching scenarios

Management of coral predators, corallivores, is recommended to improve coral cover on tropical coral reefs under projected increasing levels of accumulated thermal stress, but whether corallivore management can improve coral cover, which is necessary for large-scale operationalisation, remains equivocal. Here, using a multispecies ecosystem model, we investigate intensive management of an invertebrate corallivore, the Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and show that culling could improve coral cover at sub-reef spatial scales, but efficacy varied substantially within and among reefs. Simulated thermal stress events attenuated management-derived coral cover improvements and was dependent on the level of accumulated thermal stress, the thermal sensitivity of coral communities and the rate of corallivore recruitment at fine spatial scales. Corallivore management was most effective when accumulated thermal stress was low, coral communities were less sensitive to heat stress and in areas of high corallivore recruitment success. Our analysis informs how to manage a pest species to promote coral cover under future thermal stress events.

This study uses multispecies modelling to show that the management of a coral predator, the crown-of-thorns starfish, could help corals recover following bleaching events. They show that management was most effective when heat stress severity for corals was low to moderate, when corals had lower heat sensitivity and when the recruitment rate of starfish was high.

Coral composition and bottom-wave metrics improve understanding of the patchiness of cyclone damage on reefs

Coral reefs are likely to be exposed to more intense cyclones under climate change. Cyclone impacts are spatially highly variable given complex hydrodynamics, and coral-specific sensitivity to wave impacts. Predicting reef vulnerability to cyclones is critical to management but requires high resolution environmental data that are difficult to obtain over broad spatial scales. Using 30m-resolution wave modelling, we tested cyclonic and non-cyclonic wave metrics as predictors of coral damage on 22 reefs after severe cyclone Ita impacted the northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia in 2014. Analyses of coral cover change accounting for the type of coral along a gradient of vulnerability to wave damage (e.g., massive, branching, Acroporids) excluded cyclone-generated surface wave metrics (derived from wave height) as important predictors. Increased bottom stress wave environment (near-bed wave orbital velocity) due to Ita (Ita-U_b) explained spatial patterns of 17% to 46% total coral cover loss only when the initial abundance of Acroporids was accounted for, and only when exceeding 35% cover. Greater coral losses occurred closer to the cyclone path irrespective of coral type. Massive and encrusting corals, however, had losses exacerbated in higher non-cyclonic bottom-wave energy environments (nc-U_b). The effect of community composition on structural vulnerability to wave damage was more important predicting damage that the magnitude of the cyclone-generated waves, especially when reefs are surveyed well beyond where damaging waves are expected to occur. Exposure to Ita-U_b was greater in typically high nc-U_b environments with relatively low cover of the most fragile morphologies explaining why these were the least affected overall. We reveal that the common surface-wave metrics of cyclone intensity may not always be able to predict spatial impacts and conclude that reef vulnerability assessments need to account for chronic wave patterns and differences in community composition in order to provide predictive tools for future conservation and restoration.

Coral adaptation to climate change: Meta-analysis reveals high heritability across multiple traits

Anthropogenic climate change is a rapidly intensifying selection pressure on biodiversity across the globe and, particularly, on the world's coral reefs. The rate of adaptation to climate change is proportional to the amount of phenotypic variation that can be inherited by subsequent generations (i.e., narrow-sense heritability, h² ). Thus, traits that have higher heritability (e.g., h²  > 0.5) are likely to adapt to future conditions faster than traits with lower heritability (e.g., h²  < 0.1). Here, we synthesize 95 heritability estimates across 19 species of reef-building corals. Our meta-analysis reveals low heritability (h² < 0.25) of gene expression metrics, intermediate heritability (h²  = 0.25-0.50) of photochemistry, growth, and bleaching, and high heritability (h²  > 0.50) for metrics related to survival and immune responses. Some of these values are higher than typically observed in other taxa, such as survival and growth, while others were more comparable, such as gene expression and photochemistry. There was no detectable effect of temperature on heritability, but narrow-sense heritability estimates were generally lower than broad-sense estimates, indicative of significant non-additive genetic variation across traits. Trait heritability also varied depending on coral life stage, with bleaching and growth in juveniles generally having lower heritability compared to bleaching and growth in larvae and adults. These differences may be the result of previous stabilizing selection on juveniles or may be due to constrained evolution resulting from genetic trade-offs or genetic correlations between growth and thermotolerance. While we find no evidence that heritability decreases under temperature stress, explicit tests of the heritability of thermal tolerance itself-such as coral thermal reaction norm shape-are lacking. Nevertheless, our findings overall reveal high trait heritability for the majority of coral traits, suggesting corals may have a greater potential to adapt to climate change than has been assumed in recent evolutionary models.

Biodiversity has a positive but saturating effect on imperiled coral reefs

Species loss threatens ecosystems worldwide, but the ecological processes and thresholds that underpin positive biodiversity effects among critically important foundation species, such as corals on tropical reefs, remain inadequately understood. In field experiments, we manipulated coral species richness and intraspecific density to test whether, and how, biodiversity affects coral productivity and survival. Corals performed better in mixed species assemblages. Improved performance was unexplained by competition theory alone, suggesting that positive effects exceeded agonistic interactions during our experiments. Peak coral performance occurred at intermediate species richness and declined thereafter. Positive effects of coral diversity suggest that species’ losses on degraded reefs make recovery more difficult and further decline more likely. Harnessing these positive interactions may improve ecosystem conservation and restoration in a changing ocean.

The spatial footprint and patchiness of large-scale disturbances on coral reefs

Ecosystems have always been shaped by disturbances, but many of these events are becoming larger, more severe and more frequent. The recovery capacity of depleted populations depends on the frequency of disturbances, the spatial distribution of mortality and the scale of dispersal. Here, we show that four mass coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef (in 1998, 2002, 2016 and 2017) each had markedly larger disturbance footprints and were less patchy than a severe category 5 tropical cyclone (Cyclone Yasi, 2011). Severely bleached reefs in 2016 and 2017 were isolated from the nearest lightly affected reefs by up to 146 and 200 km, respectively. In contrast, reefs damaged by Cyclone Yasi were on average 20 km away from relatively undisturbed reefs, well within the estimated range of larval dispersal for most corals. Based on these results, we present a model of coral reef disturbance and recovery to examine (1) how the spatial clustering of disturbances modifies large-scale recovery rates; and (2) how recovery rates are shaped by species' dispersal abilities. Our findings illustrate that the spatial footprint of the recent mass bleaching events poses an unprecedented threat to the resilience of coral species in human history, a threat that is even larger than the amount of mortality suggests.

Dangerous demographics in post-bleach corals reveal boom-bust versus protracted declines

Thermal-stress events have changed the structure, biodiversity, and functioning of coral reefs. But how these disturbances affect the dynamics of individual coral colonies remains unclear. By tracking the fate of 1069 individual Acropora and massive Porites coral colonies for up to 5 years, spanning three bleaching events, we reveal striking genus-level differences in their demographic response to bleaching (mortality, growth, and recruitment). Although Acropora colonies were locally extirpated, substantial local recruitment and fast growth revealed a marked capacity for apparent recovery. By contrast, almost all massive Porites colonies survived and the majority grew in area; yet no new colonies were detected over the 5 years. Our results highlight contrasting dynamics of boom-and-bust vs. protracted declines in two major coral groups. These dangerous demographics emphasise the need for caution when documenting the susceptibility and perceived resistance or recovery of corals to disturbances.

Parrotfish corallivory on stress-tolerant corals in the Anthropocene

Cumulative anthropogenic stressors on tropical reefs are modifying the physical and community structure of coral assemblages, altering the rich biological communities that depend on this critical habitat. As a consequence, new reef configurations are often characterized by low coral cover and a shift in coral species towards massive and encrusting corals. Given that coral numbers are dwindling in these new reef systems, it is important to evaluate the potential influence of coral predation on these remaining corals. We examined the effect of a key group of coral predators (parrotfishes) on one of the emerging dominant coral taxa on Anthropocene reefs, massive Porites. Specifically, we evaluate whether the intensity of parrotfish predation on this key reef-building coral has changed in response to severe coral reef degradation. We found evidence that coral predation rates may have decreased, despite only minor changes in parrotfish abundance. However, higher scar densities on small Porites colonies, compared to large colonies, suggests that the observed decrease in scarring rates may be a reflection of colony-size specific rates of feeding scars. Reduced parrotfish corallivory may reflect the loss of small Porites colonies, or changing foraging opportunities for parrotfishes. The reduction in scar density on massive Porites suggests that the remaining stress-tolerant corals may have passed the vulnerable small colony stage. These results highlight the potential for shifts in ecological functions on ecosystems facing high levels of environmental stress.

Resonance in Physiologically Structured Population Models

Ecologists have long sought to understand how the dynamics of natural populations are affected by the environmental variation those populations experience. A transfer function is a useful tool for this purpose, as it uses linearization theory to show how the frequency spectrum of the fluctuations in a population's abundance relates to the frequency spectrum of environmental variation. Here, we show how to derive and to compute the transfer function for a continuous-time model of a population that is structured by a continuous individual-level state variable such as size. To illustrate, we derive, compute, and analyze the transfer function for a size-structured population model of stony corals with open recruitment, parameterized for a common Indo-Pacific coral species complex. This analysis identifies a sharp multi-decade resonance driven by space competition between existing coral colonies and incoming recruits. The resonant frequency is most strongly determined by the rate at which colonies grow, and the potential for resonant oscillations is greatest when colony growth is only weakly density-dependent. While these resonant oscillations are unlikely to be a predominant dynamical feature of degraded reefs, they suggest dynamical possibilities for marine invertebrates in more pristine waters. The size-structured model that we analyze is a leading example of a broader class of physiologically structured population models, and the methods we present should apply to a wide variety of models in this class.

3D assessment of a coral reef at Lalo Atoll reveals varying responses of habitat metrics following a catastrophic hurricane

Extreme disturbances such as hurricanes can cause reductions in coral cover and three-dimensional (3D) structural complexity of coral reefs. We examined changes in structural complexity utilizing 3D reconstruction of a coral-reef site before and after Hurricane Walaka passed through Lalo of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. This event resulted in complete destruction of the coral-reef habitat, with dramatic changes in benthic cover from pre-hurricane tabulate coral to post-hurricane rubble. Rugosity and mean slope decreased after the hurricane, while structural complexity, captured by vector ruggedness measure (VRM), showed resolution-specific responses. This metric captured the structural complexity of rubble at a high raster resolution of 1 cm and that of tabulate coral at lower resolutions, resulting in decreases in mean VRM values at 2- and 4-cm resolutions but an increase at 1-cm resolution. Variability in profile and planform curvature was reduced after the hurricane due to a disappearance of extreme curvature values created by the tabulate coral after the hurricane. This study highlights the varying responses of habitat complexity metrics to the complete destruction of a coral reef and provides us with insights into how choices of habitat complexity metrics can affect quantitative assessments of 3D habitat structure.

Stony coral populations are more sensitive to changes in vital rates in disturbed environments

Reef-building corals, like many long-lived organisms, experience environmental change as a combination of separate but concurrent processes, some of which are gradual yet long-lasting, while others are more acute but short-lived. For corals, some chronic environmental stressors, such as rising temperature and ocean acidification, are thought to induce gradual changes in colonies' vital rates. Meanwhile, other environmental changes, such as the intensification of tropical cyclones, change the disturbance regime that corals experience. Here, we use a physiologically structured population model to explore how chronic environmental stressors that impact the vital rates of individual coral colonies interact with the intensity and magnitude of disturbance to affect coral population dynamics and cover. We find that, when disturbances are relatively benign, intraspecific density dependence driven by space competition partially buffers coral populations against gradual changes in vital rates. However, the impact of chronic stressors is amplified in more highly disturbed environments, because disturbance weakens the buffering effect of space competition. We also show that coral cover is more sensitive to changes in colony growth and mortality than to external recruitment, at least in open populations, and that space competition and size structure mediate the extent and pace of coral population recovery following a large-scale mortality event. Understanding the complex interplay among chronic environmental stressors, mass-mortality events, and population size structure sharpens our ability to manage and to restore coral-reef ecosystems in an increasingly disturbed future.

Genomic signatures in the coral holobiont reveal host adaptations driven by Holocene climate change and reef specific symbionts

Genetic signatures caused by demographic and adaptive processes during past climatic shifts can inform predictions of species' responses to anthropogenic climate change. To identify these signatures in Acropora tenuis, a reef-building coral threatened by global warming, we first assembled the genome from long reads and then used shallow whole-genome resequencing of 150 colonies from the central inshore Great Barrier Reef to inform population genomic analyses. We identify population structure in the host that reflects a Pleistocene split, whereas photosymbiont differences between reefs most likely reflect contemporary (Holocene) conditions. Signatures of selection in the host were associated with genes linked to diverse processes including osmotic regulation, skeletal development, and the establishment and maintenance of symbiosis. Our results suggest that adaptation to post-glacial climate change in A. tenuis has involved selection on many genes, while differences in symbiont specificity between reefs appear to be unrelated to host population structure.

Long-term shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the Great Barrier Reef

The age or size structure of a population has a marked influence on its demography and reproductive capacity. While declines in coral cover are well documented, concomitant shifts in the size-frequency distribution of coral colonies are rarely measured at large spatial scales. Here, we document major shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the 2300 km length of the Great Barrier Reef relative to historical baselines (1995/1996). Coral colony abundances on reef crests and slopes have declined sharply across all colony size classes and in all coral taxa compared to historical baselines. Declines were particularly pronounced in the northern and central regions of the Great Barrier Reef, following mass coral bleaching in 2016 and 2017. The relative abundances of large colonies remained relatively stable, but this apparent stability masks steep declines in absolute abundance. The potential for recovery of older fecund corals is uncertain given the increasing frequency and intensity of disturbance events. The systematic decline in smaller colonies across regions, habitats and taxa, suggests that a decline in recruitment has further eroded the recovery potential and resilience of coral populations.

Modelling the linkage between coral assemblage structure and pattern of environmental forcing

Geographical comparisons suggest that coral reef communities can vary as a function of their environmental context, differing not just in terms of total coral cover but also in terms of relative abundance (or coverage) of coral taxa. While much work has considered how shifts in benthic reef dynamics can shift dominance of stony corals relative to algal and other benthic competitors, the relative performance of coral types under differing patterns of environmental disturbance has received less attention. We construct an empirically-grounded numerical model to simulate coral assemblage dynamics under a spectrum of disturbance regimes, contrasting hydrodynamic disturbances (which cause morphology-specific, whole-colony mortality) with disturbances that cause mortality independently of colony morphology. We demonstrate that the relative representation of morphological types within a coral assemblage shows limited connection to the intensity, and essentially no connection to the frequency, of hydrodynamic disturbances. Morphological types of corals that are more vulnerable to mortality owing to hydrodynamic disturbance tend to grow faster, with rates sufficiently high to recover benthic coverage during inter-disturbance intervals. By contrast, we show that factors causing mortality without linkage to morphology, including those that cause only partial colony loss, more dramatically shift coral assemblage structure, disproportionately favouring fast-growing tabular morphologies. Furthermore, when intensity and likelihood of such disturbances increases, assemblages do not adapt smoothly and instead reveal a heightened level of temporal variance, beyond which reefs demonstrate drastically reduced coral coverage. Our findings highlight that adaptation of coral reef benthic assemblages depends on the nature of disturbances, with hydrodynamic disturbances having little to no effect on the capacity of reef coral communities to resist and recover with sustained coral dominance.

Projected shifts in coral size structure in the Anthropocene

Changes in the size structure of coral populations have major consequences for population dynamics and community function, yet many coral reef monitoring projects do not record this critical feature. Consequently, our understanding of current and future trajectories in coral size structure, and the demographic processes underlying these changes, is still emerging. Here, we provide a conceptual summary of the benefits to be gained from more comprehensive attention to the size of coral colonies in reef monitoring projects, and we support our argument through the use of case-history examples and a simplified ecological model. We neither seek to review the available empirical data, or to rigorously explore causes and implications of changes in coral size, we seek to reveal the advantages to modifying ongoing programs to embrace the information inherent in changing coral colony size. Within this framework, we evaluate and forecast the mechanics and implications of changes in the population structure of corals that are transitioning from high to low abundance, and from large to small colonies, sometimes without striking effects on planar coral cover. Using two coral reef locations that have been sampled for coral size, we use demographic data to underscore the limitations of coral cover in understanding the causes and consequences of long-term declining coral size, and abundance. A stage-structured matrix model is used to evaluate the demographic causes of declining coral colony size and abundance, particularly with respect to the risks of extinction. The model revealed differential effects of mortality, growth and fecundity on coral size distributions. It also suggested that colony rarity and declining colony size in association with partial tissue mortality and chronic declines in fecundity, can lead to a demographic bottleneck with the potential to prolong the existence of coral populations when they are characterized by mostly very small colonies. Such bottlenecks could have ecological importance if they can delay extinction and provide time for human intervention to alleviate the environmental degradation driving reductions in coral abundance.

Combining agent-based, trait-based and demographic approaches to model coral-community dynamics

The complexity of coral-reef ecosystems makes it challenging to predict their dynamics and resilience under future disturbance regimes. Models for coral-reef dynamics do not adequately account for the high functional diversity exhibited by corals. Models that are ecologically and mechanistically detailed are therefore required to simulate the ecological processes driving coral reef dynamics. Here, we describe a novel model that includes processes at different spatial scales, and the contribution of species' functional diversity to benthic-community dynamics. We calibrated and validated the model to reproduce observed dynamics using empirical data from Caribbean reefs. The model exhibits realistic community dynamics, and individual population dynamics are ecologically plausible. A global sensitivity analysis revealed that the number of larvae produced locally, and interaction-induced reductions in growth rate are the parameters with the largest influence on community dynamics. The model provides a platform for virtual experiments to explore diversity-functioning relationships in coral reefs.

Epifaunal invertebrate assemblages associated with branching Pocilloporids in Moorea, French Polynesia

Reef-building corals can harbour high abundances of diverse invertebrate epifauna. Coral characteristics and environmental conditions are important drivers of community structure of coral-associated invertebrates; however, our current understanding of drivers of epifaunal distributions is still unclear. This study tests the relative importance of the physical environment (current flow speed) and host quality (e.g., colony height, surface area, distance between branches, penetration depth among branches, and background partial mortality) in structuring epifaunal communities living within branching Pocillopora colonies on a back reef in Moorea, French Polynesia. A total of 470 individuals belonging to four phyla, 16 families and 39 genera were extracted from 36 Pocillopora spp. colonies. Decapods were the most abundant epifaunal organisms (accounting for 84% of individuals) found living in Pocillopora spp. While coral host characteristics and flow regime are very important, these parameters were not correlated with epifaunal assemblages at the time of the study. Epifaunal assemblages associated with Pocillopora spp. were consistent and minimally affected by differences in host characteristics and flow regime. The consistency in abundance and taxon richness among colonies (regardless of habitat characteristics) highlighted the importance of total habitat availability. With escalating effects of climate change and other localized disturbances, it is critical to preserve branching corals to support epifaunal communities.

Wave exposure reduces herbivory in post-disturbed reefs by filtering species composition, abundance and behaviour of key fish herbivores

Harsh environmental conditions limit how species use the landscape, strongly influencing the way assemblages are distributed. In the wake of repeated coral bleaching mortalities in Lakshadweep, we examined how wave exposure influences herbivory  in exposed and sheltered reefs. We used a combination of i. field observations of fish herbivore composition, abundance and activity across 6 exposed and 6 sheltered reefs; ii. experimental manipulations in a subset of these reefs (herbivore exclosures); and iii. opportunistic observations of fish recruitment, to determine how exposure influences herbivore biomass and herbivory. Species richness, biomass, abundance, total bite rates and species-specific per capita bite rates were lower in exposed compared to sheltered reefs, linked to strong environmental filtering of species composition, abundance and behaviour. For some critical species, this environmental filtering begins with differential recruitment and post-recruitment processes between exposures. Bite rates at sheltered sites were dominated by just a few species, most being laterally compressed surgeonfish that may find it difficult accessing or surviving in wave-battered shallow reefs. Exclosure experiments confirmed  that exposed reefs  were less controlled by herbivores than sheltered reefs. In post-disturbed reefs like Lakshadweep, environmental gradients appear to be key mediators of critical functions like herbivory by determining species composition, abundance and behaviour.

Deficits in functional trait diversity following recovery on coral reefs

The disturbance regimes of ecosystems are changing, and prospects for continued recovery remain unclear. New assemblages with altered species composition may be deficient in key functional traits. Alternatively, important traits may be sustained by species that replace those in decline (response diversity). Here, we quantify the recovery and response diversity of coral assemblages using case studies of disturbance in three locations. Despite return trajectories of coral cover, the original assemblages with diverse functional attributes failed to recover at each location. Response diversity and the reassembly of trait space was limited, and varied according to biogeographic differences in the attributes of dominant, rapidly recovering species. The deficits in recovering assemblages identified here suggest that the return of coral cover cannot assure the reassembly of reef trait diversity, and that shortening intervals between disturbances can limit recovery among functionally important species.

Testing biodiversity theory using species richness of reef-building corals across a depth gradient

Natural environmental gradients encompass systematic variation in abiotic factors that can be exploited to test competing explanations of biodiversity patterns. The species-energy (SE) hypothesis attempts to explain species richness gradients as a function of energy availability. However, limited empirical support for SE is often attributed to idiosyncratic, local-scale processes distorting the underlying SE relationship. Meanwhile, studies are also often confounded by factors such as sampling biases, dispersal boundaries and unclear definitions of energy availability. Here, we used spatially structured observations of 8460 colonies of photo-symbiotic reef-building corals and a null-model to test whether energy can explain observed coral species richness over depth. Species richness was left-skewed, hump-shaped and unrelated to energy availability. While local-scale processes were evident, their influence on species richness was insufficient to reconcile observations with model predictions. Therefore, energy availability, either in isolation or in combination with local deterministic processes, was unable to explain coral species richness across depth. Our results demonstrate that local-scale processes do not necessarily explain deviations in species richness from theoretical models, and that the use of idiosyncratic small-scale factors to explain large-scale ecological patterns requires the utmost caution.

Exposure, vulnerability, and resiliency of French Polynesian coral reefs to environmental disturbances

Preserving coral reef resilience is a major challenge in the Anthropocene, yet recent studies demonstrate failures of reef recovery from disturbance, globally. The wide and vigorous outer-reef system of French Polynesia presents a rare opportunity to assess ecosystem resilience to disturbances at a large-scale equivalent to the size of Europe. In this purpose, we analysed long-term data on coral community dynamics and combine the mixed-effects regression framework with a set of functional response models to evaluate coral recovery trajectories. Analyses of 14 years data across 17 reefs allowed estimating impacts of a cyclone, bleaching event and crown-of-thorns starfish outbreak, which generated divergence and asynchrony in coral community trajectory. We evaluated reef resilience by quantifying levels of exposure, degrees of vulnerability, and descriptors of recovery of coral communities in the face of disturbances. Our results show an outstanding rate of coral recovery, with a systematic return to the pre-disturbance state within only 5 to 10 years. Differences in the impacts of disturbances among reefs and in the levels of vulnerability of coral taxa to these events resulted in diverse recovery patterns. The consistent recovery of coral communities, and convergence toward pre-disturbance community structures, reveals that the processes that regulate ecosystem recovery still prevail in French Polynesia.

Implications of high rates of sexual recruitment in driving rapid reef recovery in Mo'orea, French Polynesia

Coral abundance continues to decline on tropical reefs around the world, and this trend suggests that coral reefs may not persist beyond the current century. In contrast, this study describes the near-complete mortality of corals on the outer reef (10 m and 17 m depth) of the north shore of Mo’orea, French Polynesia, from 2005 to 2010, followed by unprecedented recovery from 2011 to 2017. Intense corallivory and a cyclone drove coral cover from 33–48% to <3% by 2010, but over the following seven years, recovery occurred through rapid population growth (up to 12% cover y⁻¹) to 25–74% cover by 2017. The thirteen-year, U-shape trajectory of coral cover over time created by the loss and replacement of millions of corals through sexual reproduction underscores the potential for beneficial genetic responses to environmental conditions for at least one genus, Pocillopora. The high ecological resilience of this coral community appears to have been enhanced by variation among genera in the susceptibility to declining cover, and the capacity for population growth (i.e., response diversity). These results suggest that the outer coral communities of Mo’orea may be poised for genetic changes that could affect their capacity to persistence.

Coral reef degradation affects the potential for reef recovery after disturbance

The loss of coral cover is often accompanied by an increase of benthic algae, a decline in biodiversity and habitat complexity. However, it remains unclear how surrounding communities influence the trajectories of re-colonization between pulse disturbance events. Over a 12-month field experiment in the central Red Sea, we examined how healthy (hard-coral dominated) and degraded (algae-dominated) reef areas influence recruitment and succession patterns of benthic reef foundation communities on bare substrates. Crustose coralline algae and other calcifiers were important colonizers in the healthy reef area, promoting the accumulation of inorganic carbon. Contrary, substrates in the degraded area were predominantly colonized by turf algae, lowering the accumulation of inorganic carbon by 178%. While coral larvae settlement similarly occurred in both habitats, degraded areas showed 50% fewer recruits. Our findings suggest that in degraded reefs the replenishment of adult coral populations is reduced due to recruitment inhibition through limited habitat complexity and grazing pressure, thereby restraining reef recovery.

Moving to 3D: relationships between coral planar area, surface area and volume

Coral reefs are a valuable and vulnerable marine ecosystem. The structure of coral reefs influences their health and ability to fulfill ecosystem functions and services. However, monitoring reef corals largely relies on 1D or 2D estimates of coral cover and abundance that overlook change in ecologically significant aspects of the reefs because they do not incorporate vertical or volumetric information. This study explores the relationship between 2D and 3D metrics of coral size. We show that surface area and volume scale consistently with planar area, albeit with morphotype specific conversion parameters. We use a photogrammetric approach using open-source software to estimate the ability of photogrammetry to provide measurement estimates of corals in 3D. Technological developments have made photogrammetry a valid and practical technique for studying coral reefs. We anticipate that these techniques for moving coral research from 2D into 3D will facilitate answering ecological questions by incorporating the 3rd dimension into monitoring.

Allometric growth in reef-building corals

Predicting demographic rates is a critical part of forecasting the future of ecosystems under global change. Here, we test if growth rates can be predicted from morphological traits for a highly diverse group of colonial symbiotic organisms: scleractinian corals. We ask whether growth is isometric or allometric among corals, and whether most variation in coral growth rates occurs at the level of the species or morphological group. We estimate growth as change in planar area for 11 species, across five morphological groups and over 5 years. We show that coral growth rates are best predicted from colony size and morphology rather than species. Coral size follows a power scaling law with a constant exponent of 0.91. Despite being colonial organisms, corals have consistent allometric scaling in growth. This consistency simplifies the task of projecting community responses to disturbance and climate change.

A multi-trait systems approach reveals a response cascade to bleaching in corals

BACKGROUND

Climate change causes the breakdown of the symbiotic relationships between reef-building corals and their photosynthetic symbionts (genus Symbiodinium), with thermal anomalies in 2015-2016 triggering the most widespread mass coral bleaching on record and unprecedented mortality on the Great Barrier Reef. Targeted studies using specific coral stress indicators have highlighted the complexity of the physiological processes occurring during thermal stress, but have been unable to provide a clear mechanistic understanding of coral bleaching.

RESULTS

Here, we present an extensive multi-trait-based study in which we compare the thermal stress responses of two phylogenetically distinct and widely distributed coral species, Acropora millepora and Stylophora pistillata, integrating 14 individual stress indicators over time across a simulated thermal anomaly. We found that key stress responses were conserved across both taxa, with the loss of symbionts and the activation of antioxidant mechanisms occurring well before collapse of the physiological parameters, including gross oxygen production and chlorophyll a. Our study also revealed species-specific traits, including differences in the timing of antioxidant regulation, as well as drastic differences in the production of the sulfur compound dimethylsulfoniopropionate during bleaching. Indeed, the concentration of this antioxidant increased two-fold in A. millepora after the corals started to bleach, while it decreased 70% in S. pistillata.

CONCLUSIONS

We identify a well-defined cascading response to thermal stress, demarking clear pathophysiological reactions conserved across the two species, which might be central to fully understanding the mechanisms triggering thermally induced coral bleaching. These results highlight that bleaching is a conserved mechanism, but specific adaptations linked to the coral's antioxidant capacity drive differences in the sensitivity and thus tolerance of each coral species to thermal stress.